Fantasy Football Today - Busts! Montgomery, Herbert, Pitts and More (06/17 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 17, 2021

We start the show discussing the stress involved in picking third overall! Then we'll get to our biggest busts. Kyle Pitts (4:26) is just being taken too early. And the offseason hasn't been a good on...e for Miles Sanders (6:15). Also, check out the latest NFL news and notes (9:15) and the types of stories you should care about during camp ... Our QB busts (22:00) include one of the greatest QBs of all-time and a QB who just had one of the greatest rookie seasons of all-time. At TE (26:00), it's Pitts and Logan Thomas ... We talk RB busts (31:00) with Saquon Barkley, David Montgomery and a couple more. And at WR (41:00), is Mike Evans being drafted too early? Can Kenny Golladay produce with the Giants? ... We read your Apple Podcast questions (55:00). And email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:59 BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. Tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.
Starting point is 00:01:21 Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. Talking 2021 busts here. We got some big names on the list, like Aaron Rodgers. Saquon Barkley, is he going to be a bust? Everybody's favorite breakout, CeeDee Lamb, is he going to be a bust? It's not about necessarily who's just going to be bad this year.
Starting point is 00:01:42 Obviously, you know that. You're a diehard listener to the show. It's about who's being overdrafted. But hey, some players might just be bad. Some players might just be bad this year. Obviously, you know that. You're a diehard listener of the show. It's about who's being overdrafted. But hey, some players might just be bad. Some players might just be outright busts. Maybe we'll have some of those on the list. Adam Azer with Jamie Isenberg and Heath Cummings here. Heath, we all know the biggest bust in 2021.
Starting point is 00:01:58 You established it yesterday. I second that motion. It's having the number three pick in the draft. It's just, it sucks. It's stressful. Yeah, because there's definitely some players that you could take at number three that are going to deliver on that. There's no one that you,
Starting point is 00:02:13 I feel like you take a number three and you're like, yeah, that's the third best player. It goes Christian McCaffrey. And then it goes Dalvin cook. And then it goes, huh? Is it too early to take Travis Kelsey?
Starting point is 00:02:24 I don't think it is, but everybody else does. You guys are such babies. I did just have the third pick in a real draft. How many real drafts have you guys done? Playing out? Three,
Starting point is 00:02:40 I think. Yeah, counting best ball too many is the answer. Okay, well we just had our first draft that I'm in with you guys and Heath had the second pick, I had the third pick. I was like, I'm not going to overthink it. I'm just going to take Kamara, but I kind of wanted to take Kelsey. It would have been
Starting point is 00:02:56 fun. It would have been fun. We could talk about that another time. Jamie, would you like to hear the joke of the day? Always. It has to do with busts. You already heard it. Jamie took, in this draft we just did, Jamie said, quote,
Starting point is 00:03:09 I have Burrow, Mixon, and Higgins. What could go wrong? And I said, you could have a lot of manic Mondays with that lineup. Yeah, that was a good one. Thank you. Oh, man, wait. Don't I have the rim shot?
Starting point is 00:03:23 Oh, I wasn't even chewed up. If you're too young to know what that means, there's a song by a band called The Bangles called Matic Monday. It's good stuff. Heath, you ready to lose some money next week? That was the joke of the day, huh? It sure was. It was so funny, he told it twice.
Starting point is 00:03:40 We're going to be live next week playing some poker on the YouTube channel, 7pm Eastern answering your fantasy questions and playing poker we did this last year it was a ton of fun join us on youtube.com slash fantasy football today the best thing to do is subscribe to the channel
Starting point is 00:03:55 turn the notifications on so you know exactly when we're live and we will see you Tuesday night 7pm Eastern youtube.com slash fantasy football today you can also watch all of our shows there. And we are giving away some gear, some clothes. You got queued up, Shrags?
Starting point is 00:04:10 Getting it? All right, I'll kill time. We're giving away... Oh, we have the idiot Morphin shirts now? I wish. We have the CBS Sports Fantasy Football Today store. The winner can choose whichever item that he or she would like from the FFT store.
Starting point is 00:04:28 There's like a really cool drinking glass with the FFT logo. There's a shirt. There's hoodies. Good stuff. We'll try to throw it up on there so you can see it if you're on YouTube right now. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:04:40 All right. Anyway. You say they have drinking glasses? Yeah. Do they have any other kind of glasses i don't get it every glass is a drinking glass i mean i guess that's true but now if you say glasses right exactly clarify yeah that's why i said it so so ha all right who's the biggest glass damn it he who's the biggest who's your your biggest bust based on abp i hate
Starting point is 00:05:16 this because like the only way you can proclaim somebody the biggest bus if you take somebody that has a chance of being awesome because why else would they be drafted so high, and then tell people they're not going to meet those expectations. But if I had to pick one, I think I would say Kyle Pitts. He's now up to tight end four over the last two and a half weeks on NFC ADP. I expect he's going to keep climbing, and he'll be a fourth-round pick by the time we get to August. And he has the ability
Starting point is 00:05:46 and the potential to deliver on that but he's still a rookie tight end and um i i don't want to bet that type of draft capital on a rookie tight end third round pick in our tuesday night stream we had some guest analysts on. Remember who took him? I just don't know. Andy Singleton. That's what I thought. Oh, gosh. Where does he work?
Starting point is 00:06:14 He's at People's Pen. At People's Pen. Yeah. Andy Singleton took him in the third round. Kyle Pitts. I just don't know. It's not like that couldn't work out I'm not here to trash anybody's
Starting point is 00:06:27 picks but I don't know what the upside is at that cost yeah he oh he's a firefighter Andy Singleton and if you want to get him expand the box score if you want to get him yeah
Starting point is 00:06:43 in our drafts you don't have to take him in round 3 but in a lot of drafts you't have to take him in round three, but in a lot of drafts, you might have to take him in three or four. Well, I mean, look, he just, in the magazine draft that we did, which will be on newsstands in August or late July, he went in the fifth round, Pitts. That, I think, is more realistic. The third round is very aggressive.
Starting point is 00:07:09 The fifth round, I think, is where you're going to see him go, and he went right after in the same round is a is very aggressive yeah the the fifth round i think is where you're going to see him go and he went right after in the same round as you it was you took he took andrews you took adam you took hawkinson and then uh three picks later kyle pitts went all right jamie what do you got for biggest bust right now um so i have the the second version of my buster on, on the site that was done without using ADP looking at ADP, which is the next round that I'm writing for the next magazine. Uh, miles Sanders stands out to me a little bit as a bust. Uh, I just don't love everything that's happened for him this off season. I don't love the Kenneth Gainwell edition. I don't love bringing in carry on Johnson. I don't love bringing back Jordan Howard.
Starting point is 00:07:49 I don't love the Boston Scott still there. Now I don't know if everybody makes the team, but it just feels as if this is a very committee approach. And he was great with Jalen hurts last year, you know, give him credit. You know, the year as a whole was bad,
Starting point is 00:08:00 but what he did with Jalen hurts, I think is kind of what you're hoping for is that he can work well with a Russian quarterback so I still have some level of optimism for him but I just don't know if he's going to get the work that you like to see for a guy that's going in the third round he feels a little bit like the start of the dead zone um Miles Sanders yeah it's yeah it's interesting would you take him or Chris Carson? I mean, Chris Carson's pretty safe. He's been like a top 15 running back, I think, per game, maybe 16, three straight years.
Starting point is 00:08:33 Yeah, and I have them ranked back-to-back. I would take Carson. There's a few guys for me that I just don't want to draft, and I hate saying this about Sanders because I love him, but Sanders, Montgomery, and Josh Jacobs are three running backs I'm almost completely going to avoid. I see the upside for them, but I see more of the downside for them. It's just not worth the cost for me to draft
Starting point is 00:08:51 those guys. I'm almost at the point where I want to take Mike Davis over them. He certainly has less competition for Dutchess than those guys do. Yeah. I mean, for me, it'd be Miles Gaskin, but I could see where you're going. You know, about Miles Sanders with Jalen Hurts, it's kind of interesting that he had two games.
Starting point is 00:09:09 He played only three games with Hurts, not including the Green Bay game. Green Bay, Hurts came in for Wentz. He had four catches in two of those three games. It's kind of weird, and those were the games they lost. It was also their receiving core was a complete joke. It's true. But actually, he really didn't run the ball very well.
Starting point is 00:09:25 He had an 80-yard run, and other than that, he ran the ball like he did most of the year. He didn't run the ball well, or he didn't have a high yards per carry. He wasn't that efficient, however you want to say it. You take away the long run, and it was actually pretty ugly. But that's what happens, though, with running quarterbacks. The lanes get a little bigger. Yeah, but you would expect it on more than one run.
Starting point is 00:09:44 Yeah, but, you know, I mean, the thing that I liked about Miles Sanders coming back this year, which I thought was going to be a benefit to him, was getting all this offensive line help.
Starting point is 00:09:52 Sure. And I hope that's the case, but it just feels like Miles Sanders is, he teased us a little bit as a rookie, and I think what we saw last year is probably more of what he is.
Starting point is 00:10:01 Okay, so we've got Kyle Pitts, Miles Sanders. Those are just a couple of the busts we will talk about. We're going to have, I think, some really good debates on today's show. Busts, you know, I think bust lists kind of lend themselves to that because you have to make some bold calls, as Heath was saying. You've got to pick someone who has upside to be really, really good. News and notes, Jacksonville not naming a starting quarterback yet.
Starting point is 00:10:24 Can't blame them. I mean, they have a proven NFL starter on their team and they got to make Trevor Lawrence earn it and beat Gardner Minshew out. Derek Carr. I like this. I love this. Actually, Derek Carr said he might quit if he ever wasn't on the Raiders. He'd rather he probably would quit before playing for another team. He said he's an old school guy.
Starting point is 00:10:46 He wants to play for one team his whole life. I wonder how Raiders fans feel about Derek Carr, because he obviously is quite fond of the Raiders. Derek, we've just traded you to the Packers for Aaron Rodgers. You're expected to report next week. You're really going to retire? Yeah. Yeah, probably.
Starting point is 00:11:03 I don't know. You've seen Derek Carr in cold weather. Also on the Raiders, John Gruden said that Henry Ruggs looks much better this season. You would hope. Joe Burrow expected to be fully healthy. He said John Brown looks great.
Starting point is 00:11:17 He said Willie Sneed's going to push Hunter Renfro. He said a lot today. He's definitely one of those talkers. Who's the one coach that their comments comments their compliments mean the least to you bruce carroll bruce carroll yeah those are good ones uh courtland sudden not going to start training camp on the pup list let's go great news he was uh the number 18 wide receiver two years ago 18 18th in non-PPR, 19th in full PPR, 72 catches, 1,100 yards, six touchdowns in 16 games. So how many picks ahead of Jerry Judy
Starting point is 00:11:56 or how many rounds ahead of Jerry Judy do you think Sutton should be taking? At least one, potentially two, but I did something interesting. Another one of our two, but, uh, I did something interesting. Another one of our magazine articles with, uh, we do this pick by pick series, which you guys have seen on the site before. Uh, we'll do it again. Um, I went back to back to back three picks in a row of Cortland Sutton, Jerry, Judy, and Javante Williams. And I made the joke cause he needed a tight end, um,
Starting point is 00:12:24 that I was going to take Noah Fant. I had, I had a pick before Heath's next pick and I was going to take Noah Fant for that team, but I figured Heath would have taken Noah Fant because he needed a tight end. But I did that just kind of for fun. It was essentially my third and fourth receivers. So I don't need to play Judy, but I think Sutton's ceiling is still higher. I like him better than Judy, but I think Judy's going to have a good second season as well. I can't think of a Broncos pun like
Starting point is 00:12:51 Manic Monday. I can't think of anything. Yeah, and Heath made the joke that I should go all in and just get Aaron Rodgers and hope for the best. Yes, perfect. That's a better joke. Kansas City rookie tight end Noah Gray has had a good camp apparently. I don't think that's going to matter. Can I just, just real quick, the news item you read on Cortland Sutton, these are the news items you want to be looking for. Not this guy played great. Not this guy threw interceptions. That is news. Cortland Sutton, what you said is news and i'm not saying you shouldn't say these other things that you're doing because it is important but um especially since we have to fill an hour but uh for what
Starting point is 00:13:29 people are reading and seeing on twitter those are the new those are the things you want to you want to see you know this guy's playing over this guy this guy is going to be ready for camp coming off an injury not this guy is looking great in camp according to john gruden or you know other coach you know just spewing BS. I appreciate the fact that you waited until after the Noah Gray news item. I meant to say it after Sutton, but I forgot. Yeah, yeah, it fit well to contrast the two. OK, so last year we didn't really have these types of camp reports for obvious reasons.
Starting point is 00:14:01 But I remember last year looking at my 2019 notes about what beat writers were saying, you know, this guy's looking good. And the only name I can really remember was DJ Chark. There was actually some DJ Chark buzz going into 2019. I'm sure that I, I don't know if I did it on the show, but I know personally, I completely dismissed it. And obviously he went on to have a very good season. And I remember last year saying, wow, you know, the camp reports actually were helpful. Not all of them, but they were better than I thought they were. So with that said, if you didn't see the live stream on Tuesday night, we got into it on the viscous Chenael and i felt like everybody was dave it was gretch dave and jamie were feeling it with chanel and i'm just like i thought you guys were kind of falling for it
Starting point is 00:14:54 uh you were feeling it i thought you were falling all last year before like when he was drafted he did but but every it was like everybody against me surprise surprise i thought that he went too early, and I just – Someone tweeted yesterday or the day before, I retweeted it, that it's important to remember that the only camp reports that actually matter are the ones that confirm the things you priorly believed. Yes, 100%. Well, for us in our business, that holds true.
Starting point is 00:15:22 And obviously for the audience members who are you know clearly in tune which typically our audience is which we appreciate um but i think you know sometimes you you see something and we're all guilty of this in every facet of life you see something like you just said heath it pushes you in the direction you're already heading or you know it sways you away for a minute if that's something you're gonna do but most coaches are going to say new player rookie uh guy coming back from injury looks great to any question and i've been on the other side of it you know from from a reporter standpoint you know and and have fallen for that as well um you know you get a little too excited and the flip side of that is you know there was a big you know
Starting point is 00:16:00 hubbub about two are throwing five interceptions in practice. You just see that and you go, oh, guy who stunk stinks again. Well, there are circumstances that are part of that. First off, it was in a monsoon. So, you know, he's probably throwing a wet ball trying to do some things. And what guys do in practice, especially at the quarterback position, you know, it took a few years ago, Pete prisco explained this to me that you have guys that want to try stuff and coaches that want to try stuff and they're okay with their quarterbacks throwing interceptions and it's not a bad thing if a guy is you know doing some some different things and i think you know that that's one thing like you take away from it is some things happen in practice that you're never going to see in a game so yeah you know practice reports are what they are.
Starting point is 00:16:45 They're practice reports. Yeah. And even to acknowledge that, he said, you know, we were trying new things, wanted to see how if we could fit the ball in the tight window. It's like a pitcher getting roughed up in spring training, working on new stuff. But I actually wanted to talk about Chennault because I thought it was an interesting discussion. And he went in the eighth round, early eighth round, after Will Fuller and Jarvis Landry. Then Chenault was the next wide receiver off the board.
Starting point is 00:17:09 And that was just before Marquise Brown and Jalen Waddle. So, you know, Heath, do you think LaVisca Chenault should be an eighth round pick? That doesn't... I think it's a little bit higher than where I have him ranked. His ADP is around nine, by the way. Was it round nine? His ADP is round nine, by the way. Was it round nine? His ADP is round nine. Okay. I think if you really want LaVisca Chenault
Starting point is 00:17:31 and he's got a round nine ADP, then round eight's the right place to take him. But round nine, I feel better about. But it's in the same ballpark. It's also, it's like the Kyle Pitts thing. You know, we're doing drafts with each other. And as a group, whatever told people that are in this draft, the group, for the most part, the majority is going to like a lot of the same guys and dislike a lot of the same guys because we look at a lot of the same info. And so the group, for the most part, likes LaVisca Chanel.
Starting point is 00:18:02 You're the outlier, Adam, for the most part. And you did a Twitter poll, right? Yes, I did. LaVisca Chenault in round eight or Amari Rodgers in round 14? If Aaron Rodgers is still there. If Aaron Rodgers is still there. I haven't checked, but it was 66%, basically, Chenault.
Starting point is 00:18:19 Look, you know, I'm going to tell you something. I'll be open-minded to it. I'm not a stubborn person. It's June 16th right now. If the reports are still good, if he's getting more buzz and he has a good preseason, there could be something that makes me change my mind. Look, for example, I wasn't really a huge Antonio Gibson guy,
Starting point is 00:18:37 but Dave and Jamie both have him in their breakouts column. So I'm not, I'm not... I mean, I work with the best of the best. I'm going to listen to you guys. And I drafted Antonio Gibson today in the first real draft that we had. And you see Chenault here, 63% of the vote. Sounds like you're a coward.
Starting point is 00:18:58 No, I'm willing to admit when I'm wrong or if I'm not seeing something. In the case of the two players in question, you could draft them both. Absolutely. And I did draft the Barry Rogers today. I think the thing that comes out with LaVisca Chenault is round eight, round nine,
Starting point is 00:19:13 the receivers that you mentioned, maybe he shouldn't be going ahead of Marquise Brown if you look at Brown's pedigree and what he did a couple years ago, Jalen Waddle and where he was drafted and what his expectations might be. But Chenault closed the season last year playing very well after having an up-and-down rookie season with no offseason.
Starting point is 00:19:29 He has arguably a quarterback upgrade, no offense, Heath, but Trevor Lawrence should be better than Gardner Minshew. And he's in a receiving core with the guy who's— He was not that good last year. This is what kills me. He was not—he had one game at the end of last year this great stretch for Chenault. He had one game. Nobody said great stretch. He closed the season
Starting point is 00:19:50 playing better. Yeah, because he caught some touchdowns, but he had one game with more than 50 yards. He wasn't that good. I guess he didn't get a ton of targets. Terrible. I know, I know, but what happened at the end of last year doesn't really matter. If you want to just say he was an early second round pick, he's got a ton of talent.
Starting point is 00:20:05 The situation should be better. He can beat DJ Chark. He can beat Marvin Jones. I can totally buy into that. It's also, you know, you said this time and time again, that rookie receivers take time to develop.
Starting point is 00:20:13 And so, you know, for a guy that was dealing with up and down quarterback play, trying to find his way, you know, is he going to be a hybrid player? Is he going to be a slot receiver? Is he going to be an outside guy,
Starting point is 00:20:23 which is still going on? I mean, you know, the reports that we're referring to are he's he's being used more as a traditional receiver you know that's not exactly something that should blow you away you hope he's going to be used as your traditional receiver because people who make the case for him like well they'll give him some handoffs they'll use them this way they use them i think that they will now that's gone and we still yeah well and also, as a rookie, he scored like 0.3 fantasy points per game
Starting point is 00:20:48 fewer than Marquise Brown did as a second-year receiver and more than Brown did as a first-year receiver. It's fine. And he was a high, high-end second-round pick. Let me see if you guys agree with this. I don't know that Dave would because he seems to think very highly of the wide receiver position.
Starting point is 00:21:04 I think once you get past round seven, you should basically just take the wide receivers you like. It's just a jumbled mess of unproven players. It's also how you built your team, too. You know what I mean? You're talking like Heath and I, I don't think we're on total opposite ends of the spectrum, but I'm going to probably lean a little more toward running backs early,
Starting point is 00:21:22 and Heath's going to lean more toward wide receivers early. So, you know, what you're saying is probably something I'll do more of is once you get past round seven, Heath at that point is probably looking a little bit differently, you know, but it is a, like,
Starting point is 00:21:35 you know, to what you said about Dave, I think we just give some clarity to it. You know, Dave thinks that the drop off is like round 10. Right. I, I,
Starting point is 00:21:42 I think I said it on the show yesterday or the live stream that to me it's like round 7 or round 8. Like the guys that you're listing. That's kind of where the drop off starts for me. If I get LaVisca Chenault, I'm happy about that. If I get Marquise Brown in round 8 or round 9 like I did today, I'm happy about that. But I'm not excited about
Starting point is 00:22:00 necessarily having to rely on Rondell Moore or a guy that I like, for example, is Amon Ron St. Brown. I don't want to rely on him. I'd like to take a flyer on him. I don't want him to be a starter for me. I'm not saying you draft him in round eight.
Starting point is 00:22:13 No, but the later guys, the guys that you like, to your point. Yeah. All right. Well, that was quite a tangent there. Schrager's back. I didn't know he wasn't with the program earlier today. So Schrager, show them what they can win. Folks, take a look at the Fantasy Football Today store.
Starting point is 00:22:30 A drinking glass. Where is that drinking glass? There it is. A drinking glass. It's got the logo on it. See, everything's got the logo. And there's a mug. There's hats, pants.
Starting point is 00:22:44 It's actually really cool stuff. So if you want to win something, join us Tuesday night, youtube.com slash fantasy football today. Let's get back to the busts. All righty. We've got quarterbacks who are basically going close to each other in ADP.
Starting point is 00:23:00 Justin Herbert, QB seven. Aaron Rodgers, QB nine. Herbert is Heath's nominee. Rodgers is Jamie's nominee. And Heath, you're up. Justin Herbert has a bust. Yeah, I just think, and I think Chris was the first one
Starting point is 00:23:18 to talk about this earlier this offseason, but the Chargers had a really strange year last year in that they ran 1,127 plays, which may have been the most in football, but was definitely towards the top in football. And that's unlikely to repeat itself, even if they had the same coaching staff and offensive coordinator, and they've actually changed all that. So I think there's going to be a drop in the number of plays, and there's likely to be at least a small drop in Herbert's efficiency. And so I'm worried. I think he'll still be a starting quarterback, but I wouldn't want to take him over Ryan Tannehill.
Starting point is 00:23:58 I wouldn't want to take him over Tom Brady. I wouldn't want to take him over Aaron Rodgers or Jalen Hurts right now. Okay. It's tough because you're talking about a guy who had arguably the best rookie season ever by a quarterback, but also you're looking at the numbers and you're saying there's a lot of ways he could regress. So that's kind of right.
Starting point is 00:24:19 It's kind of a balance you have to play right with him. Just right. You know, the talents there, the performance, it just, but he had, right, with him? Right. The talent's there. But he had five rushing touchdowns. So there's regression in some sense, but there's also like, wow, that was really impressive. But also, it was really impressive in some ways, but you look at like, he averaged 7.3 yards per attempt.
Starting point is 00:24:42 I think that was slightly below league average. Yeah. Is it good for a rookie? Do you know um what's really good for a rookie the thing he did last year that we talk about a lot that rookies don't do is throw touchdowns he had a 5.2 touchdown rate a lot of times we see rookies below four percent um kyler murray is still struggling with that going into year three if that was something that was skill related and not something that was just the way the offense happened to work or a product of the, I mean, they had a lot of 50 yard touchdown passes to wide open Tyron Johnson or
Starting point is 00:25:18 Jalen Guyton or somebody else running down the field with nobody covering them. If he can match the touchdown rate again, then the regression's probably not going to happen. Jamie, why is Aaron Rodgers on your bust list? This has nothing to do with the trade speculation or obviously him not playing because then he's definitely a bust. It's more just you saw a three-year trend prior to last season when he was magically motivated by Jordan Love's arrival and being pissed off.
Starting point is 00:25:50 He could clearly still be pissed off. I just don't think he's going to repeat as the number one fantasy quarterback again. I don't think anybody does. But it's just, you know, where does he fall? And so add his name to all the quarterbacks that Heath just said. I would take all those guys over Aaron Rodgers as well. Jalen Hurts, Tom Brady. I would take Herbert over him.
Starting point is 00:26:10 I just think Rodgers is going to go back to better than what he was in 2019. Nowhere close to what he was in 2020. And still be a very good fantasy quarterback, just not a great fantasy quarterback. And again, we still have this uncertainty of what's going to happen with him going into
Starting point is 00:26:27 the year. But you can't have too much of a problem with his ADP as QB nine, right? No, again, the, the list that you're reading from, I did not factor in ADP when I wrote that this is something that was done. You know, peek behind the curtain. It was done, you know, a few months ago, a couple months ago, following the NFL draft. So I didn't take into account ADP. It was more speculating on what the ADP could be,
Starting point is 00:26:50 where these guys could be drafted. QB9 is still too high for me. But, you know, he's in that range. I think I have him ranked 11th, so I'm below ADP. Okay, let's go to tight ends. And the tight end bust for Heath was Kyle Pitts. For Jamie, it's Logan Thomas. And he was the number eight tight end in non-PPR,
Starting point is 00:27:09 but number four in PPR. 72 catches in 16 games. And only 670 yards. But still was top five in PPR last year. Logan Thomas is currently the eighth tight end off the board, 92nd overall. So what do you think? It's just, you know, everything around him has changed.
Starting point is 00:27:33 You know, it was McKissick, McLaurin, and Thomas last year, with Thomas being, you know, essentially the second receiver. You know, you're bringing Curtis Samuel, you draft Dayami Brown. I think it's Dayami. I looked it up last time. I already forgot. I think it's Dayami. Dayami Brown. I looked it up last time. I already forgot. I think it's Dayami.
Starting point is 00:27:48 Yeah. And you change the quarterback who doesn't need a safety blanket. You know, so it's just I think Logan Thomas, who was a breakout tight end, I believe, at 28 years old, former quarterback, you know, who's been trying to learn the position. I put him in that group of about 10 tight ends that you can say, okay, I'll wait and see if I end up with him, but I don't know if you necessarily have to reach for him. I wouldn't take him as the top eight tight end, even in PPR. I'd rather take my chances with somebody like Noah Fant, who struggled a little bit last year.
Starting point is 00:28:20 Irv Smith, who I think is going to take a step forward. Obviously, Dallas Goddard, TJ Hawkinson, Kyle Pitts, or Smith. So I think it was going to take a step forward. Uh, obviously Dallas Goddard, TJ Hawkinson, Kyle pits, that group. Um, you know, I agree with Heath that,
Starting point is 00:28:28 that pits is in the bus category, but, um, I, I think he's, but more, more, more chance for upside than Logan Thomas.
Starting point is 00:28:35 So, uh, I just think the circumstances have changed for him. He was great last year. He was great for people that picked him up and, and certainly delivered, uh, same with Robert Tunyon.
Starting point is 00:28:43 You know, both guys to me are very similar, you know, uh, fluky performances based on the circumstances surrounding them. people that picked him up and certainly delivered. Same with Robert Tunyon. Both guys to me are very similar. Fluky performances based on the circumstances surrounding them. So I would put them both in the same category. Yeah, I took Thomas in our, well, one more peek behind the curtain in our pick-by-pick series, which will be in the magazine in a month.
Starting point is 00:29:01 But I think I took him after Blake Jarwin, after John O. Smith, after Adam Troutman in like round 12 or round 13 and and if you can get him there i love it if you've got to take him as the eighth tight end off the board i don't want any part of it for all the reasons that jamie said i think the thing like you know for for two of the guys you mentioned for me aaron rogers and and logan thomas people look at last year's stats and it's a common thing you're going to see who finished where last year when you look at you know planning your draft boards and don't say oh well this guy was the third best tight end and he got a quarterback upgrade that's going to be a great
Starting point is 00:29:34 thing for him probably not going to happen the only thing i like to know though about logan thomas is are we with the opposite of the case for him, are we looking at a guy who's just scratching the surface of how good he could be? Because this is a converted quarterback. He's 6'6". This was really his first chance. No. The reason
Starting point is 00:29:57 why not, I would say, and the difference between him and Darren Waller is that he was not good in terms of efficiency in any sort of way that you could measure it. He averaged 9.3 yards per reception, 6.1 yards per target. That's a running back type number. Okay, what's a typical ADOT for a tight end? Do you know?
Starting point is 00:30:19 Sorry for asking these hard questions. No, I don't. But he was the JD McKissick of tight ends last year. Because his was seven yards. So I'm just wondering... It was totally tight end, target dependent. Yeah, but was Alex Smith just holding him back? I'm wondering if this is a guy
Starting point is 00:30:36 who actually has a little bit of downfield potential. I'm saying the exact opposite. Alex Smith is the reason that he had a great year. No, I know what Adam's saying. He's saying that Alex Smith kept him within a certain range in the field. Yes. The eight out of seven yards. Let me see.
Starting point is 00:30:50 I just think if he's looking further downfield than that, then Logan Thomas isn't the guy you're throwing to. All right. Well, yeah. I haven't drafted Logan Thomas. I'm just wondering if maybe he's better than we think because Alex Smith was kind of just keeping him in a box, essentially. I mean, look, he's going to have more, you know,
Starting point is 00:31:09 probably chances down the field because of Fitzpatrick. He's going to have less coverage around him because of the guys that are there. And he's clearly on a team that doesn't have a lot of competition at that position for him, you know, where there's a second tight end or a young guy that's going to push him a little bit. But I just think that, you know, what Alex Smith has been for short area targets
Starting point is 00:31:32 was a big boost for Logan Thomas and JD McKissick, and both those guys aren't going to repeat what they did a year ago. All right, just to give a little context, average depth of target for Logan Thomas was 7. Evan Ingram was at 6.9. Jimmy Graham, Hayden Hurst, 6.8. Kyle Rudolph, 7.1. A little bit better.
Starting point is 00:31:51 Can you bring a good tight end to the conversation? Yeah. George Kittle, 7.3. Okay. Zach Ertz, 7.4. Well, I think Kittle is a good one. Waller, 7.8. I think Kittle is a good one to look at because what did Kittle do after the catch?
Starting point is 00:32:06 Nobody's Kittle in that regard. Yeah. Let's go to running backs and wide receivers. Running back busts. Heath, you've got Saquon Barkley and James Robinson on your bust list. Barkley as RB7.
Starting point is 00:32:20 Robinson as RB25 going late round five, almost the end of round five 59th overall in a 12 team league. Let's start with Barkley. Your bus case is just health or anything else. It's, I mean, it's partially health. It's partially how the giants could respond to health.
Starting point is 00:32:40 Barkley was obviously awesome as a running back, as a receiver on a per target basis. He was pretty close to average, um, even in his good, good years. I'm concerned, especially with the talk we're getting, what they're planning on doing early in the year, that they're just not planning on featuring him as much as they did back in 2018 and that Barkley's, uh, you know, 15 to 17 touch per game guy, instead of a 20 touch per game guy on an offense, that's really bad and doesn't score touchdowns. Yeah. So when would you feel comfortable taking him? I am not taking sake one Barkley in round one.
Starting point is 00:33:21 Wow. And I know that's out there. Yeah. I like it. We're going to have some kind of hot takes on it. I don't agree with it, but I like. And I know that's out there. Yeah, I like it. We're going to have some kind of hot takes on a bus show. I don't agree with it, but I like it. I appreciate that. I think the thing about Barkley is he's going to go in round one.
Starting point is 00:33:34 It's a question of is he going in the top seven picks. And so, again, we keep getting a lot of picks behind the curtain. Our magazine draft that we just did, he went seventh overall. And that was behind McCcafree cook see if i remember correctly mcafree cook uh camara right yep i took camara uh fourth was i think henry or he was fifth fourth was no i took zeke at six. Fourth was Zeke. Five was Taylor. I took Henry six. And then Barkley went seven. And I would also take Aaron Jones, Austin Eckler, Joe... This is half PPR, by the way.
Starting point is 00:34:16 Yeah. Wait, the draft we just did is half PPR? Yes. God damn it! And that one counted when did you not know that the entire time i just i mean we did the same draft for our first edition of the magazine we didn't change the scoring format from that one you haven't changed it for three years, have you? No, I do change it. Oh, okay.
Starting point is 00:34:49 It was PPR last year, wasn't it? It was PPR last year, yes. I said in the chat room, by the sixth pick, by the way, just a reminder, this is half PPR. I think the only thing I may have done differently was taking Derrick Henry third instead of Kamara. Other than that, I wouldn't have changed a thing, but that's pretty funny. The best thing was he didn't realize that he drafted Jalen
Starting point is 00:35:09 Hurts also, Heath, and he took Rodgers, and I was given a hard time like, why would you take two quarterbacks in an analyst draft? There's so many guys available. What are you wasting? I knew I took Hurts. No, you didn't. No, yes, I did. I swear. When I took Rodgers, I knew I had a quarterback. I just didn't quite feel i did i swear i knew when i took rogers i knew i had a
Starting point is 00:35:25 quarterback i just didn't quite feel so secure with jalen hurt so i wanted a second um wow uh okay anyway that's barkley so james robinson 59th i don't think james robinson's adp on nfc is actually indicative of what we is real crazy but. But I don't think there's people going to NFC and just burning money and drafting James Robinson as a joke either. He went 66 today. He went 66 in the draft we just did. That makes him a sleeper to me.
Starting point is 00:35:58 Yeah, he's running back 25 currently by NFC ADP. And if that's the case, running back 25 currently by NFC ADP and if that's the case, then I don't see how the ETN's not a bust. Like if he justifies that, I have a hard time believing that the Jags are going to have two running backs that are top 25 options.
Starting point is 00:36:18 And they just, the current coaching staff just took one of them in the first round. So you think Robinson should go later? Yes. That's why I put him on the bust list. But I was confused. And Jamie, you think what? I think if you can get him in the 30s at his position and somewhere after
Starting point is 00:36:34 round six is fine. That's when I put him on the list. I get that, Heath. Okay, but Jamie said something about him being a sleeper. Where is he a sleeper? Anything after round six, I think he kind of him being a sleeper. Where is he a sleeper? Anything after round six, I think he kind of gives you some sleeper appeal. Round seven, yeah.
Starting point is 00:36:49 Round seven, round eight. But his current ADP is round five. Five, six, yeah. Right at the turn. He's in this, it's like what I said about Ryan Tannehill. He's kind of in this weird spot, you know, of there's no category for him. The ADP that we're typically working off of
Starting point is 00:37:06 heath is right he's a bust if that's where people are actually drafting him but we just haven't seen that in the drafts that we do that he's going that high and i'm sure you know he you've done a lot of best ball drafts where is he typically going in those formats uh not that high is what i've seen right um so the adp we're looking at is he's going too high. Let's do Jamie's running backs. David Montgomery is going 35th overall since May 1st, RB19. And Kareem Hunt, RB23, 54th overall. Big gap between RB19 and RB23, by the way. As there should be.
Starting point is 00:37:37 Yeah. David Montgomery, Jamie, as a third, fourth round pick. He was awesome last year. Was the guy that, you know, I think if you were in the David Montgomery camp when he got drafted by the Bears two years ago, you were like, hell yeah, this could be a star. And he lived up to the billing.
Starting point is 00:37:56 But the schedule was great. The competition was gone. And he took full advantage of it. The schedule obviously is not going to be as favorable over the course of the season. Tariq Cohen is back to ruin him in pass catching situations, potentially. Damian Williams, if he makes the team,
Starting point is 00:38:10 is going to ruin him in both categories, running and catching the ball, potentially. So David Montgomery is somebody, like I said, I just don't find myself drafting him. The earliest I would take him is the fourth round. And again, we're splitting hairs here because he's at the end of the third, but I just don't see myself drafting a lot of David Montgomery. Where Montgomery goes is where I typically take him as the fourth round. And again, we're splitting hairs here because he's at the end of the third. But I just don't see myself drafting a lot of David Montgomery.
Starting point is 00:38:27 Where Montgomery goes is where I typically take wide receivers. And then for Kareem Hunt, as we saw last year, was awesome when Nick Chubb was out. When Nick Chubb came back from his injury, Kareem Hunt disappeared. And, you know, I just don't know if he's going to get that type of workload consistently to draft him as a starting fantasy running back. As a flex option, again, splitting putting hairs i'm fine with it but i'm not drafting him in the first five rounds especially in anything but ppr heath how do you feel about honey that was your one of your favorites last year yeah and i have an emotional attachment to him that's hard to let go of um but this is pretty close to where I generally start thinking about him.
Starting point is 00:39:06 I think I took him in round six of a draft recently. Round five is maybe just a smidge too high. I do like the fact that I still expect if Nick Chubb plays 17 games that Hunt's going to be a starting flex. I don't think he'll be a starting running back. I think he'll be a starting flex. And I do think if Chubb goes out for the year, Hunt has league-winning upside.
Starting point is 00:39:27 And it's hard to value a player like that. It's hard to judge the percentages. But I like Hunt in round six. I don't really care too much in round five. I would rather take Kareem Hunt than James Robinson for sure. And they're five picks apart in ADV right now. I totally agree with everything he said. I agree with, you know,
Starting point is 00:39:45 if, if something happens, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt's an absolute monster, but it's like the same thing, you know, he said about Tony Pollard and the draft capital is completely different, you know,
Starting point is 00:39:54 so Pollard won't play as much as, as Hunt will with the starter healthy. But, you know, I mean, the Browns kind of showed you what they felt about Nick Chubb when, and Kareem Hunt, when Chubb came back from the injury,
Starting point is 00:40:05 and it wasn't exactly very pleasing. Would you guys take a Broncos running back over Kareem Hunt and or James Robinson? I would take both Broncos running backs over Robinson right now. I would take Hunt over both Broncos guys right now, but if you tell me that Javante Williams wins the job in training camp, then come August, I would take Javante Williams over Kareem Hunt. I think I agree with all that.
Starting point is 00:40:32 I think if I told you Javante Williams won the job in training camp, he'd end up in the fourth, not necessarily for you, but he'd be a fourth-round pick maybe even earlier. People would be pretty excited. I also think it comes down to the build of your team. If you're staring in round six, for example, at Broncos running back or Kareem Hunt,
Starting point is 00:40:49 and you've already taken two running backs, and you still want to take a running back in that range, you might shoot for a little bit higher upside. Not to say that Kareem Hunt doesn't have it, but he needs the injury to have it. Whereas Javante Williams doesn't necessarily need the injury. We're going to take a quick break here on Fantasy Football today.
Starting point is 00:41:05 When we come back, we've got wide receiver busts. That would be Kenny Galladay and Brandon Cooks for Jamie, CeeDee Lamb and Mike Evans for Heath because they're going very high. They're both top 15 wide receivers. And we'll answer your Apple podcast questions. I also want to tell you we have a mailbag next Friday where we'll be reading your Apple podcast questions and and your emails so leave a question in a review and we'll answer them on the show
Starting point is 00:41:29 next friday and email us at fantasy football at cbsi.com all right we will be right back whether in the game or in life the right coverage can make all the difference securing canada gives you that coverage for more than 65 years years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters.
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Starting point is 00:42:20 It's not just the law. It's a step to keep your team and community safe visit ontario one call.ca and avoid unnecessary damages to get the job done right data sourced from the orcga 2023 dirt report and we are right back here we go wide receiver busts for jamie kenny galladay he's wide receiver 24 he's going 59th overall so So right, same spot-ish. Yeah, same spot as James Robinson. Spot-ish. That just sounds crazy. Same-ish spot. And yes, it does. Kenny Gallaty. And
Starting point is 00:42:53 Brandon Cooks. Is Brandon Cooks a bust at 102nd overall? No, again, this was pre-ADP conversation, so again, I know the list you're working off. It's the story on the site but as if you read it you won't see a word of adp mentioned and you see me say a lot uh if he's drafted in this range i would stay away from at this value i think it's fantastic for brandon
Starting point is 00:43:15 cook so uh the updated version of the story that i'm working on now for our next magazine brandon cooks will absolutely not be listed as buzz okay let's take a look at where he went. Oh, you took him last night, or Tuesday night, in round seven, just ahead of Will Fuller, his former teammate. Okay, so how do you feel about Brandon Cooks, who has been no worse than, I think, 19th per game in five of the last six seasons?
Starting point is 00:43:45 Well, he's an absolute wild card based on the quarterback situation. And the nice thing about Brandon cooks, despite every team passing him off to, you know, the next team he's played with some very good quarterbacks, obviously, you know,
Starting point is 00:43:57 Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Jared Goff, and he was still good. And Sean Watson. So it's been a pretty good career for Brandon Cooks for the spots that he's played and the quarterbacks that he's played with. That won't be the case in 2021
Starting point is 00:44:08 if there is no Deshaun Watson. Terod Taylor or Davis Mills, whoever ends up starting there, is not Deshaun Watson. I don't think that's breaking news. So it's going to be tough for him, I think, to have the same level of production. That being said,
Starting point is 00:44:22 if you get him after round six or round seven, it's absolutely worth taking a shot on Brandon Cooks. Forget about Deshaun Watson even playing. But if Deshaun Watson's playing, this is a guy who should be going in round five. It just depends on when you're doing your draft, how comfortable you feel with drafting him, what your
Starting point is 00:44:37 roster build is, but he's going to be the number one receiver there if he stays there. You never know what the Texans decide to do because this is a team that's tearing everything down to hopefully start to rebuild in 2022 all right he fill in the blank if deshaun watson is starting in week one for the texans and he's going to play the full season brandon cook should be drafted in round blank jamie said i think five right five yeah i say four. I had him at wide receiver 16 when I was projecting him with Deshaun Watson.
Starting point is 00:45:08 Okay. But I don't think there... It seems like there's a 0% chance that we know when we're drafting that Deshaun Watson's playing the whole season. Right, but if you're drafting today, Brandon Cooks probably has more upside than any player that's going in round eight
Starting point is 00:45:24 or something like that. Yes, if you're telling me that it's Brandon Cooks and LaVisca Chenault, I'm taking Brandon Cooks. Okay, good. But what about Kenny Galladay? Kenny Galladay, go ahead, make your case. I don't know what to expect with him with Daniel Jones. I mean, that's the whole thing.
Starting point is 00:45:41 It's just, you know, this is a guy that I don't want to label him injury prone, but, you know, he struggled with injuries last year. Uh, is he going to get the type of targets that he needs to be successful from a quarterback that still has to prove himself? And I think Daniel Jones can get Kenny Galladay the ball. I think they're going to scheme to get Kenny Galladay plenty of targets. It's not about that, but, um, this is a very crowded receiving core with a run first offensive coordinator. And if Saquon Barkley is right, bus cat, bus candidate or not, he's going to lead this team in touches as he should and dominate touches on
Starting point is 00:46:09 this team. They're going to run the ball as much as they possibly can. And so Galladay with Shepard and Tony and Ingram and, you know, everything that they have at the receiver position, I just don't think he's going to be successful enough to be what he was or close to what he was. And he's probably to be successful enough to be what he was or close to what he was.
Starting point is 00:46:27 And he's probably being drafted fairly accurate. But there are some other guys that I would consider in the conversation with him, like Cortland Sutton, like Brandon Ayuk, like Jamar Chase. You know, other receivers that are, you know, considerable number one options on their respective teams that may or may not have better quarterback situations. Do you think Daniel Jones will do better than per 16 games 3,338 yards and 16 touchdowns? Which is obviously pathetic. Yes.
Starting point is 00:46:57 Okay, that is what David Blau and Jeff Driscoll did in their eight games times two. That is what they Blau and Jeff Driscoll did in their eight games times two. That is what they were on pace for. 3,338 yards, 16 touchdowns back in 2019. With that garbage. Also a team that didn't have a running game and threw the ball all the time.
Starting point is 00:47:16 With that garbage, Kenny Galladay had 30 catches, 550 yards, and four touchdowns on 54 targets. In eight games. In eight games. In eight games. So that's per 60. This is terrible. No, it's not. 60 catches, 1,000 yards, and eight touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:47:33 60 catches, 1,100 yards, and eight touchdowns on 108 targets. Yeah, I don't see him doing that on 108 targets. He did it. I mean, that's what he does. He gets a lot of... He's a yards per catch star. He did that over 8 games. I don't think he's going to do that over 16 games with Daniel Jones. But he is... He's like, what, 18 yards per catch?
Starting point is 00:47:55 17 yards per catch? That's with Matthew Stafford. So 60-1100-8 is pretty close to wide receiver 24, right? I would guess it's a little better, but yeah. Right, yeah, okay. Well, okay. Yes, look, there was only really just Marvin Jones,
Starting point is 00:48:16 no run game, different philosophy, probably a worse defense. All right, Heath, your wide receiver busts. Oh, CeeDee Lamb and Mike Evans. They're going as wide receiver 13 and 15 respectively. Yeah, and I'll start with Mike Evans because the CeeDee Lamb one is
Starting point is 00:48:35 less comfortable for me. It's easy to make the Mike Evans bust call, even though he's been good for a lot longer. We do this with quarterbacks a lot, but we don't do it with receivers very often. If Mike Evans had scored last year at his career touchdown rate, he would have scored seven fewer touchdowns. That would have dropped him from wide receiver 11, where he finished to wide receiver 27,
Starting point is 00:49:04 right behind Cole beasley i am very concerned really for everyone in tampa bay about target share and being able to maintain that type of efficiency like he's all and and it's important to say that like it's not like before 2020 mike evans had a low touchdown rate. He was like 5.7%. He was pretty good at scoring touchdowns. He had kind of a weird every other year thing going on. Um,
Starting point is 00:49:32 and we could make the joke about how every time he scores at least 12 touchdowns, he has a terrible touchdown year the following year, like he did in 2015 and 2017. But it's more just that you can't sustain that type of touchdown rate. And 109 targets does not produce a top 15 wide receiver. It's just he does it every year, at least in terms of he's 1,000. He's never done it with that target rate, though.
Starting point is 00:49:55 Yeah, but I'm just saying at the end of the day, he's a top 12 receiver, five of seven seasons, top eight in four of his last five in non-PPR. A little bit worse in PPR. He's not a huge catch guy. But it's weird. He's such an accomplished receiver. But he was also...
Starting point is 00:50:15 Is he the best one from 2014 now? Yes. By far, right? Well, look, I mean, there's Robinson. There's Cooks. Evans. No, Devontae Adamsams is he in that class oh yeah he was he just was a late bloomer what a freaking draft class incredible they all went
Starting point is 00:50:34 behind sammy watkins though they did yeah um i'm sorry i didn't mean to cut you off i don't know if there's anything to add it's just it's it's just, he's, he's so consistent. I maybe in different ways, but as a fantasy option, he's just always good. You know, I don't find myself drafting him in PPR, but in non PPR,
Starting point is 00:50:54 I will take my chances on the touchdown still being there for him. So that's kind of the gamble I think I take, but, uh, I'm with Heath. I think he's going to get overdraft a little bit. I mean, you think about all these guys that,
Starting point is 00:51:04 that Tom Brady has to throw to. He may still be number one. And who knows if Godwin, you know, stays healthy over the course of 17 games and Antonio Brown stays healthy over the course of 17 games. But if Gronk is still catching passes and Howard is back and you have Antonio Brown and they decide to work in some of the younger guys that they still have on the team, it could be hard. You know, we could be looking at another sub 120 target season for Mike Evans. And if the touchdowns disappear and he just gets to that
Starting point is 00:51:32 member, they were like basically begging to get him a thousand yards. You know, they were trying to do it before the season ended last year to keep the streak alive. They're, they're title hunting, you know, so they may, So they may start to sit some guys in rest if he has any ailments and he's been banged up a few times over the last couple seasons. Does this matter to you? He played seven games. He played week 17 but
Starting point is 00:51:55 he got hurt after 11 snaps. Seven games... He got hurt or they pulled him because they got the 1,000 yards? No, he got hurt. I don't even know if he played the first playoff game. I think he may have missed that game at Washington. No, he played. Oh, he played.
Starting point is 00:52:08 He had a huge game. But remember, he was questionable all week. Sorry, but he was hurt. He was great in those seven games. He was on pace for almost 1,300 yards, 1,342. What, seven games? Seven games with Antonio Brown after the Brown acquisition. Or after he...
Starting point is 00:52:27 And Godwin played all seven, too? I'm pretty sure, yeah. So I think all three of them... Well, Brown missed, what, two of those? No. Brown played all eight games down the stretch. When did he get hurt? When did Brown get hurt?
Starting point is 00:52:41 In the playoffs, maybe? I don't know. I can look, but I'm almost positive Brown played all eight regular season games. Evans was by far the best one, not necessarily in targets, but in production. It was weird. He had two games.
Starting point is 00:52:58 He scored touchdowns. It wasn't that complicated. No, it wasn't. He was on pace in those seven games for 1,342 yards. But he had two mega games with 110 yards, 181 yards. Other than that, he wasn't really that great with yards. But I don't know. He still continued to produce. He also was among the league leaders in red zone and green zone targets.
Starting point is 00:53:21 Maybe I'm going too in-depth here. I don't know. But he was actually better when Brown came back. It was earlier in the season. There was this weird thing where Chris Goblin played at Mike Evans got on average three or four targets per game. It was very strange. Um, I think they, maybe they throw started throwing more. Maybe Brady was just doing better later in the year, but Evans didn't seem to be too affected by Brown. Okay. That's it. CeeDee Lamb?
Starting point is 00:53:49 I just, like, that's a pretty massive leap if everybody's okay. And I know the Amari Cooper thing with maybe missing the start of training camp, but I haven't seen anything at all that suggests that Amari Cooper's thing could linger into the regular season. I think he has enough of a connection with Dak Prescott. We're missing a week or two. A training camp is not going to make too big of an impact. And Lamb was awesome as a rookie.
Starting point is 00:54:13 I think he's very good. He's a top 12 dynasty wide receiver for me, but with Gallup there and them now moving Gallup into the slot a little bit with Blake Jarwin coming back with everybody there, I just don't see him getting enough targets because he wasn't particularly efficient last year to be a top 15 wide receiver. Efficient in the first five games or efficient over the course of the season over the course of the season.
Starting point is 00:54:38 Well, how was it? How was his efficiency? It was very good. The first five games. Well, I think that matters, obviously. Right. Oh yeah. his efficiency and it was very good the first five games well i think that matters obviously right oh yeah i mean if if he could um if he if those first five games are what mattered not the rest then well those first five games had the starting quarterback there right but it was also five games yeah but i'd rather judge him off the first five games with Dak as opposed to the next 11 with Andy Dalton and uh Danucci and whatever else they were going out there oh that Ben Danucci game that
Starting point is 00:55:11 was so sad uh yeah this is a good point but wide receiver 13 we actually talked about this on the breakout show it's hard to he would basically have one of the most... If he's able to finish top 12 and Amari Cooper does what Amari Cooper usually does, then it would be extremely impressive. Then Dex QB1. What's that? Then Dex QB1. He'd be obviously in the discussion, but what I was going to say was
Starting point is 00:55:37 looking at all the sophomore wide receivers who have finished top 12 since that Beckham Robinson class. Most of them did not have a receiver as good as Amari Cooper. So Juju was the exception. Juju did it with Antonio Brown, who had a huge year. And Roethlisberger, I think, was QB1 that year, right? That was, I don't know, he was up there.
Starting point is 00:56:02 Yeah, Antonio Brown got hurt in the playoffs, Jamie. He missed the NFC Championship game. Brown got hurt in the playoffs. Jamie, he missed the NFC championship game. He got hurt in the new Orleans game. And you look at Mike Evans game log. I mean, four targets in week one, four targets in week three, two targets in week six,
Starting point is 00:56:15 two targets in week seven. Those were the games that Chris Godwin played. It was really weird. And then Antonio Brown came in week nine and he was consistently targeted in that stretch, except for week 17 when he left early. Doesn't make a lot of sense. And not to say that what happened last year is going to translate to this year,
Starting point is 00:56:35 but that is what we saw. All right, cool. Let's read some Apple podcast questions, people. Thank you very much for the kind reviews. We appreciate it. Hope the show's been helpful. Going five days a week beginning next week. This is from Reed in Detroit.
Starting point is 00:56:50 My keepers are Jonathan Taylor in the fourth, Swift in the fifth. Another Taylor Swift there. Diggs in the sixth. Yeah, it's a lot. I only get to keep two of them. Would I be crazy to not keep Diggs in the sixth? I'm the champ, so I'm picking 12th.
Starting point is 00:57:10 So he could take any of these guys with his first pick. Well, he says he can take Diggs with his first pick. I don't know about the others. But who would you guys keep? Taylor in the fourth, Swift in the fifth, Diggs in the sixth. So he has the first pick? No, he has the 12th pick. He says he could get Diggs with his first pick. I mean, if he thinks he can get Diggs,
Starting point is 00:57:27 then you keep the other two. I mean, I'd probably keep Taylor and Diggs because if I think if I can get Diggs, I would take Diggs over Swift, so I would think I could get Swift. Totally agree. I mean, I would just go in based on what he said, but he may think that Swift is going to go ahead of just going based on what he said. He may think that Swift
Starting point is 00:57:46 is going to go ahead of Diggs based on knowing his league. That's probably why he's saying that. If you can keep Diggs in the sixth and keep your fifth round pick, then you should go that route. This is from Maple Syrup. I'm going to tell you guys, I make pancakes that are so good, they require no
Starting point is 00:58:01 syrup. Dynasty League. Three with syrup. Also, the moron. What do you have to drink with them? Water. Always water. What do you drink it out of?
Starting point is 00:58:20 A cup. Is it a water cup or like... If I said fantasy football today glasses, you would think fantasy football today glasses. We wouldn't have thought that if you didn't do the thing. From Mabel says, but you can't hardly wait. You ever see Can't Hardly Wait? Urkel.
Starting point is 00:58:40 You ever seen that movie? No, I don't think so. I was busy watching Pulp Fiction. I love that movie? No, I don't think so. I was busy watching Pulp Fiction. I love that movie. I think for people my age, kind of 90s kids, Ken Harley-Waite's like... Is that Freddie Prinze?
Starting point is 00:58:54 No, that's She's All That. Ken Harley-Waite has Jennifer Love Hewitt, and it's actually got a really good cast. Oh, yeah, I think I have seen it. What's the guy's name who plays... Seth Green's in it, right? Dr. Evil's son, a really good cast. Oh, yeah, I think I have seen it. What's the guy's name who plays... Seth Green's in it, right? Dr. Evil's son. Yeah, Seth Green.
Starting point is 00:59:08 It's such a funny movie. And it's a very good encapsulation of high school. Anyway, PPR3 Receiver League, one quarterback, Dynasty. I trade Justin Herbert. I already have Dak Prescott for Michael Pittman. C-. Pittman! Dak Prescott for Michael Pittman? No, Herbert for Pittman. C minus. Pittman.
Starting point is 00:59:25 Dak Prescott for Michael Pittman? No, Herbert for Pittman. Oh, F. But he already has Dak. Okay, F. From Mickey C
Starting point is 00:59:33 in NYC. Subject, 2021 New York Giants win the Super Bowl. JK, I'm a Jets fan. I just needed this brought to everyone's attention.
Starting point is 00:59:41 Has it ever been addressed that Adam pronounces rookie as Wookiee? It's absolutely, absolutely hilarious to me and endearing. I've never noticed that. Do you guys notice that? I say Wookiee? No. You're Chewbacca. We should have
Starting point is 00:59:56 a tournament about all the funny things you say. I mean, your arms are kind of hairy. I don't say Wookiee. Hold them up. Okay, Urgel. Maybe the winner could get like a free sports line coupon. I mean, look at those things. A free. Oh, I say coupon.
Starting point is 01:00:10 My boss says coupon and it's unsettling. So. Show your arms again. No, JB. Nobody needs to see my stupid. Have you ever heard of the suns? I go out a lot. I'm going out as soon as this podcast over.
Starting point is 01:00:24 We're going outside. Jamie, your kids have stomp rockets? No. Very fun for the kids. Okay, from Dan. Oh, I didn't read the question, did I? Oh, yes, I did. It was the stupid rookie-wookie thing.
Starting point is 01:00:40 Sorry, this is from C. Tritt. Hey, Bernie, Baker, Brian, and Brady. Browns quarterbacks. I play in a 12 team PPR, one quarterback, three wide receiver, three flex league. I get to keep three players.
Starting point is 01:00:57 Barkley in the 13th and Taylor in the 4th are easy choices. Do I go with Josh Allen in the 9th or either DK Metcalf or Calvin Ridley in the third? It is a one QB three receiver PPR league. So it's Allen in the ninth or Metcalf or Ridley in the third.
Starting point is 01:01:17 I'd go Allen. Allen for Heath, Ridley for Jamie. Ridley over DK for sure. Yeah, you're not getting much value there, but at least you're locking up a potential top five, if not higher wide receiver. Okay, Dan from a small city north of Clearwater.
Starting point is 01:01:34 12-team half PPR Dynasty League. Grade the trade. Give up Adam Thielen, the 10th pick, and a second-round Wookiee draft pick for Amari Cooper. Thielen, the 10th pick and a second round draft pick in the rookie draft for Amari Cooper.
Starting point is 01:01:53 What's the 10th pick? The 10th is a rookie pick too? Yeah. F. F. Yeah, I wouldn't. I'll probably go C-. This is from Zatch
Starting point is 01:02:08 from a pretty city in Tennessee. Nashville? Knoxville? Something with a Ville. Gatlinburg. Hey. Cam, Warwick, Dalvin, and Devante. Gross.
Starting point is 01:02:22 I'm in a deep one-quarterback dynasty league. I have Herbert and Taysom. No one in the top 10 needs a quarterback, but you never know. Pick 12 said he will be going quarterback. I have pick 11. Is that too early to go with one of Lance, Fields,
Starting point is 01:02:36 or Lawrence? Or should I get talent at a flex position? Remember, he has Herbert and Taysom Hill. It is a one QB dynasty league. 11th pick. Is that too early for... I love how he ranks them.
Starting point is 01:02:47 Lance, Fields, Lawrence. Probably going to be Lawrence one for most people. It's a 12-team league? Yeah. So take whoever the fallback is in the second... It's dynasty. Yeah, it's rookie. Not snake.
Starting point is 01:03:00 Rookie. I mean, I don't think you need a quarterback per se. So I would pass. Yeah. Unless there's Lawrence. I guess you can take Lawrence at 12. I love it. That's actually good value.
Starting point is 01:03:15 I'd take him. Yeah. Yeah. Do you take Trevor Lawrence or you take Terrace Marshall? Lawrence for me. Lawrence. I feel like I should know this intro. This is,
Starting point is 01:03:24 Hey, Gail, Al, Theo, Harry, and Carl. for me. I feel like I should know this intro. This is... Hey, Gale, Al, Theo, Harry, and Carl. That's Die Hard, right? Gale? I don't know who Gale is, but this seems very... What are the rest of the names? Gale, Al, Theo,
Starting point is 01:03:40 Harry, and Carl. Al is obviously the cop. Carl is one of the bad guys. Carl is one of the bad guys Theo is one of the bad guys he's a computer guy I don't know who Harry is Harry oh Ellis Harry Ellis
Starting point is 01:03:58 oh yeah it's gotta be that what's Gale though Gale I don't know Gale Wallens who is that maybe one of the henchmen maybe one of the cops i think it might be one of the cops okay uh is that the lieutenant i'm not sure which one's the lieutenant i think it's the i think it's al's boss yeah that's what I'm saying. The lieutenant. Yeah, I don't know. Not the FBI guy. Right, he's not Agent Johnson.
Starting point is 01:04:28 The other Johnson. Okay, anyway, please help me with a trade offered to me today. Ted team, non-PPR, bonus points for big touchdowns. Keepers are forever. We keep five players.
Starting point is 01:04:41 My keepers right now are Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, Swift, Mixon, and A.J. Brown. I was offered Calvin Ridley and the 10th overall pick for Derek Henry. Should I do it? Whew.
Starting point is 01:04:55 So his running backs would be Swift and who? Mixon? Yeah. Do it. Yeah, because this is not the 10th pick in a Wookiee draft. This is the 10th pick in a draft with five keepers, so it's not a great pick, but... Do it. Yeah. Do it. Yeah, because this is not the 10th pick in a Wookiee draft. This is the 10th pick in a draft with five keepers. So it's not a great pick, but... Do it. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:05:10 Do it. Let the English see you do it. Yeah, I think you have to, right? Because Derrick Henry may have one more great season. Right. And Calvin Ridley could be a superstar for two or three more years. Pro tip.
Starting point is 01:05:22 Find out if your league is full or half PPR. From Mersh Mello. How confident is everyone on workload for Cam Akers? And is he worth a swing pick? It's non-PPR. He is worth a swing pick. I think he's going to lead the team in touches. I'd probably say he's going to get 70% of the touches.
Starting point is 01:05:43 If I had to ballpark it. I don't know what you projected for Heath. But I would think that's going to lead the team in touches. I'd probably say he's going to get 70% of the touches if I had to ballpark it. I don't know what you projected for, Heath, but I would think that's how they approach it. I've got him at 328 touches, which over 17 games is 19 per game. That's pretty good. Pretty good. That sounds worthy of a late first round pick.
Starting point is 01:06:05 Yeah. 19 per game. Right late first round pick. Yeah. 19 per game. Right, Heath? Yeah. Okay. Thank you, guys. Good stuff. Great week.
Starting point is 01:06:12 Fun show. Sleepers Breakouts Plus. We did our top 24 on Monday. Make sure you check out FFT in 5. Jacob Gibbs coming on for a Friday and Saturday special with some player profiles. Tuesday night, we've got poker. Next week, we have five episodes.
Starting point is 01:06:25 Mailbag, send in your emails, send in your Apple podcast questions. Have a great, great weekend, everybody. Talk to you on Monday.

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