Fantasy Football Today - Busts! Plus Deebo ☹️ (06/18 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 18, 2020

With Deebo Samuel out 3-4 months, does Brandon Aiyuk become the best rookie WR? Does George Kittle move ahead of Travis Kelce? We discuss all angles of this including the possibility that Samuel misses hardly any time. Then Dave and Ben give you their biggest bust candidates for the 2020 season. Are Raheem Mostert (8:40) and Will Fuller (12:00) busts or breakouts? ... Some NFL news (19:00) and a question about the new rules regarding holdouts (21:45). Then it's back to busts with an in-depth Aaron Jones discussion (24:55) ... We get into the Round 3-5 RBs (31:40) like Le'Veon Bell, Melvin Gordon and David Johnson. Are we avoiding all of them? And let's finish with WRs (45:30) Odell Beckham and DeVante Parker ... Your emails at [e-mail] and your Apple Podcast questions (57:30)  'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. What's up, everybody? Welcome back to Fantasy Football Today.

If you are listening on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, Spotify, or anywhere you listen to podcasts, or if you're watching on YouTube, youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. Yeah, that's right. We have video, and you can see what we look like and tell us if we look like you thought we looked like. Does that make sense?

Adam Azer with Dave Richard and Ben Gretsch. You know, Heath was supposed to be on the show today, and he had Deebo Samuel as one of his busts. And Debo's out, and Heath is out today. Heath will be back next week. Yeah, so I would have to agree with Heath at this point. 63rd overall is too early for Debo Samuel. He's out three to four months.

But holy cow, Ben just wrote an article about it for the website, cbsports.com slash fantasy. All right, so here's the first question. Should Brandon Ayuk be the first rookie wide receiver drafted? No. I think it's close. I don't think. It's not close for me, not yet. He was someone that I thought had a lot of good talent and

athleticism but wasn't quite nfl ready here's i have a question then uh would you take him over debo not yet but they're they're gonna be pretty close in my rankings ben i'm gonna move i'm gonna move over debo and i like like Ayuk. I hear that. Yeah, I think people are – I think as a fantasy community, we were a little bit lower on Ayuk than maybe the 49ers were. Remember they traded up to draft him in the first round? Shanahan loved him. Yeah, and he has that yak ability. He had a great return profile in junior college.

Before his time at ASU, he was less of a returner at ASU, but he still did it. And he had a punt return touchdown. He did it more as a part-time guy and was still successful at it. And those types of skills actually tend to be a little bit predictive of future success. They tend to be predictive of yak ability and ball skill or ball and hand skills. I don't know. I'm saying that weird, but being able to make plays after the catch and that's what the 49er scheme is predicated on. It's not just George Kittle skill set and Debo Samuel skill set that leads to such high yak numbers. It's their whole scheme. I mean, they,

they run so much misdirection off their run game, so much play auction play action off their run game. So a Uke is like, if they're going to miss Samuel for any amount of time, Ayuk's going to be a really good fit in that way. Yeah, it's important that I put the time frame out there because he's out three to four months. And if he's out three months, he might miss a week or two. That would be best case scenario.

He could also go on short-term IR. Obviously, the Pupist will start training him. There's already talk that the publicist is impossible. Yeah, there's talk. But if it's truly three months, we're recording this on June 18th. July, August, September. It's September 18th. We're exactly 12 weeks from the Thursday kickoff game.

You noted that I wrote the article, so I did a little research. Okay. The commentary was 12 to 16 weeks. You should expect him back. We are exactly weeks from the thursday kickoff game so the short end of that would be he could be back by week one sure but there that's also pretty optimistic for a couple reasons one debil samuel has a lengthy injury history dating back to his time at south carolina has never really been healthy he wasn't a very productive college player because he was always banged up.

And then number two, this specific injury, the Jones fracture has a high rate of re-injury is something you do not want to rush back from. We've seen it a lot throughout NFL, recent NFL history. I believe Des Bryant had it, Julio Jones had it early in his career. It was a contributing factor to Hakeem Nicks falling off significantly as he tried to rush back a little early. There's some positive examples there and also some negative ones. I don't think with a young player, the Niners will have any interest in rushing him back too early with this type of

injury. Second question then. I'll do one more about Garoppolo. Second question. George Kittle. On a per-game basis, basically the same as Travis Kelsey, but he played two fewer games. I mentioned the two games he missed

were against the two best matchups for tight ends, and Jimmy Garoppolo threw 91 passes in those two games. I can't even imagine what Kittle would have done against Arizona and Seattle. He probably would have finished as the number one tight end, and maybe people would take him ahead of Kelsey. Does this help George Kittle? Does this move him to the first tight end, and maybe people would take him ahead of Kelsey. Does this help George Kittle? Does this move him to the first tight end off the board?

It's close. I hesitate to do it because I just know that Travis Kelsey just feels safer, and we've seen the touchdowns from him more so than Kittle. But you think about it, where's the ball going to go here? It's a team that wants to run the ball quite a bit anyway, but if there's no Debo and Emmanuel Sanders is gone, he's in New Orleans, then it's Iuke. It's Kittle for sure.

Is Jalen Hurd going to be good enough? Does Dante Pettis get another shot? Does Kendrick Bourne re-find his identity? That was bad. Sorry. Dante Pettis get another shot? Does Kendrick Bourne refine his identity? That was bad. Sorry. Do the running backs get more involved? Does Jerick McKinnon get more involved? McKinnon involved. I think Kittle's going to end up seeing

a lot more looks from Garoppolo after this. That means coverage is going to be tight on him too. But those catches will be there. I think it could be pretty close in the PPR. And I'm more inclined to take him now in round two than it was before this. So I kind of go the other way where I would say, I don't, I don't think I'm moving Kittle around. Like I, I,

I already had Kittle basically maxed out for what I think his role could be in this offense. I didn't know that I would, was limiting him or I, I, I wasn't limiting him in any kind of way because of the other receivers on this offense necessarily. They weren't that deep. It's a couple of young guys. So somebody else is going to play. I don't think Kittle can get like 35% of the targets now. I mean, I think I was already maxing him out pretty much. If he was going to get 35% of the targets, and that's an easy guy to put ahead of Kelsey. i don't think we're going to do that the question is before i was i was okay taking kittle in late round two i would have preferred it in early round three because i'd always prefer to get players

around later than where we're talking but now i feel like he can get you off to like a little bit more volume without debo samuel there so i wouldn't hate it if he's there in round two, but I'm not going to move him ahead of Kelsey. All right. Last question. Does this ruin Jimmy Garoppolo sleeper appeal? Let's let's wrap up here so we can get into the bus. But you know, Garoppolo great yards per attempt was spectacular when he took over as a

starter in 2017. They were very run heavy last year, obviously, but maybe if they just throw more, there is sleeper appeal there, I think. But is, is it over now for now you gotta you gotta wait and see how iuk does in camp how jalen heard doesn't camp and heard can end up being tremendous for them because that's a size speed combo that you know he got he was injured last year and he couldn't do much but

now that he has an opportunity and apparently he's training hard just like everybody else doors open for him doors open for one of these receivers and if the the reports are curtis samuel good coming out of san francisco then that'll keep garoppolo star shining bright devo samuel yeah um garoppolo you said curtis samuel i said curtis samuel meaning all... Remember all the hype about Curtis Samuel last year? Oh, okay. Well, that was very tricky. I meant to say Curtis Samuel that time.

Okay. Every single day, there was a big highlight or a story about Curtis Samuel and how he looked like the best receiver that ever played in the history of the Carolina Panthers. And people were drafting him high because of it, and then he ended up stinking. Trivia question.

Hopefully that doesn't happen to somebody in San Fran. Trivia question. Name the top two wide receivers in rushing yards last year. Wide receivers? Devo. Devo had to be one of them. Devo Samuel, number one. Who was number two?

In rush yards. AJ Brown had a long touchdown. Is this an AJ Brown trick question? Curtis Samuel. Both of the Samuels were one and two in rushing yards. All right. And there's your 49ers discussion to start the show, a bus show about the 49ers.

Hey, it happens a lot with the team that loses in the Super Bowl, but we like them. Who would be your number one biggest bust? You guys each gave me four names. There are a lot more on the website. Heath also gave me four names. Debo Samuel was one biggest bust. You guys each gave me four names. There are a lot more on the website. Heath also gave me four names. Debo Samuel was one of them. I'll reveal the other three for Heath.

But Ben, bust numero uno for you. Who would it be? Busts are tough. But I'm going to have to go, I think right now, with Raheem Mostert, which is kind of a shot at Dave because he had him as a breakout.

I don't think that's crazy. I think Mostert either goes one of two ways. He either is this breakout that Dave talked about, or he's a pretty big bust. And right now I'm seeing kind of across the board, he's like a fourth round pick right now. And he didn't go fourth in our expert mock right now, but his ADP seems to be right in that fourth round range. And to me, that's just evidence of an overcorrection right now. Everybody is really confident there's not enough running backs,

and you have to get your backs. But that doesn't mean that you chase a guy like Raheem Mostert with his profile into the fourth round, where you guys know I love all the fourth-round receivers, A.J. Brown, D.J. Moore falls there sometimes. There's too many good names. Odell Beckham's available there sometimes. Way too many good wide receiver names available at that point

to be taking someone who had almost no track record before last year, no receiving role. And then on a team that rotates, and last we saw Raheem Mostert in the playoffs, he was cutting off that monster NFC Championship game and then getting basically benched for the first half of the super bowl for whatever reason he was their backup again uh this is a team that's going to rotate and and there is a potential for that big boom but i i can't chase a 27 28 year old running back up into the fourth round with this track record i wouldn't either i but i'd get him in round six or round seven i know adam would take him in round six too, wouldn't you, Adam? Yeah, I just... We did

a draft at 2 p.m. today. Right now it's 4.15. It was an industry draft. It was half PPR. I thought it was full PPR, full disclosure. Because I'm so used to every draft we do. It's three receivers and a flex and full PPR. This one was half PPR. So I went Barkley one. I had the second

pick. Dave had the first pick. I went Barkley in the first round. Then I went... There was no running back that I love. Melvin Gordon was the next running back. So I was like, nope, I had the second pick. Dave had the first pick. I went Barkley in the first round. Then I went. There was no running back that I love. Melvin Gordon was like the next running back. So I was like, nope, not taking him in round two. So I went Juju, then DJ Moore, then Terry McLaurin, then DK Metcalf. And then at the end of round six, I took Raheem Mostert. But what if it had to be your...

And I don't think anybody has a problem with that, right? I don't. I don't know if Ben does. Especially not with that build. No. I mean, I have melvin gordon is one of my bus and i took him in this draft you're talking about in the fourth round because i mean you said you're thinking about him to end around two he came all the way around to the fourth and then a half ppr league yeah i'm gonna take him as my rb2 just like you made a similar decision with most hurt as your rb2 right and right after i had four wide receivers. But the question is, no on the fourth round,

yes on the sixth round, what about 55th overall, which is where he is on Fantasy Pros right now in PPR? That's RB24, that's one spot ahead of Mark Ingram and David Montgomery. What do you think about Mostert there? The only way I'm taking him there is if those other running backs that you just mentioned, Ingram and Montgomery, are gone, and a lot of other running backs are gone.

And I got receiver heavy in my earlier picks and I'm just desperate for a running back. Yeah, I basically agree with Dave. I don't think I would take him in the fifth. Even if I was receiver heavy, I probably would find a receiver I like way too much more than

diving into Mostert for need at that point even. Before I forget, we have your Apple podcast questions and your emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com set to be read on today's show. So stay tuned for that. And Dave, who's your biggest bust? Well, if Benjamin Gretsch is going to take shots at me, I'm going to take a right back at him and say Will Fuller is a big time bust for me to the point where I really just don't want to draft him at all.

Two things you need to be a good receiver in the NFL are steady hands and availability. And Will Fuller's had a hard time displaying both of those things on a regular basis. I know the opportunity is there for him. With DeAndre Hopkins gone, lots of target share to be grabbed in Houston, but they brought in Brandon Cooks, they brought in Randall Cobb for whatever those guys are worth. I think Will Fuller stays exactly in the role he's in, which is very, very inconsistent, high upside, terrible downside. And he's probably going to get banged up at some point after he drops a pass and trips over his feet and ends up being on your bench for four weeks.

And I just don't want the hassle of Will Fuller. We talk about him breaking out every year. I decided very early this offseason that I wasn't going to have any of Will Fuller. I love his quarterback. Don't love him. Does this matter to you? He's been in the league four years. Cooks has been in the league five years, I believe.

If you take away both Brandon Cooks and Will Fuller, you take away both of their rookie seasons. And the reason I did this was because Will Fuller's rookie season was with Brock Osweiler. It was that horrible year for DeAndre Hopkins. So I'm not going to hold it against Will Fuller. If you take away both Cooks and Fuller's rookie seasons, Fuller actually has a slightly higher yards per target

than Brandon cooks. I don't know if that matters to you guys, but it matters a little bit. Yards per target is going to be depth sensitive and Fuller gets downfield looks, but he also Fuller can do more different areas of the field than people realize. I mean,

I kind of want to give the pro case cause I don't know how much we've dug into him. But the two things that I love about Fuller's profile this year, one, he's the only receiver left in Houston that actually has a track record with Deshaun Watson. We know that the offseason work is going to be shortened. The Will Fuller to Brandon Cooks debate, you can pretty easily give Fuller the nod in the sense that he's been very productive with Watson before.

Remember the splits last offseason where we talked about how much better Watsonatson was when fuller was on the field um oh he's a player that dramatically impacts watson's ability and they play well together and then two i would just say that i don't think we'll realize how good he is and adam you just noted the efficiency um he's always kind of attacking him by comparing him to sneaky good players like kenny stills who's always had sneaky good efficiency. But you can go all the way back to his prospect days, and he's been hurt a lot.

So there's a question. How good is this guy? A lot of people think he's just a couple big games, and that's all he's been. As a prospect, was very, very good. And basically got Deshaun Kaiser drafted very high and got him a starting job at the NFL. That may be correct.

He caught 14 touchdowns and 15 touchdowns in his two seasons as a full-time player for Notre Dame and then declared early like we hope to see. And he's been an efficient and productive player at the NFL level since coming in. To me, this is the profile of a guy that as soon as he does stay healthy for a full 16 games, we're going to see a big season. And there's no question in my mind that he could be the number one for them right now. He's the only guy on their team that has any kind of a rapport with Watson. It would be something completely different than he's done at any point in his four-year career. As a rookie, he had three

of 14 games with 15 or more PPR points. Second year, three of 10. Third year, three of seven. That was the year when he got off to a real hot start. It was 2018, got off to a hot start and then got hurt. Only played seven games. And then last year played 11 games. That's a lot for him. Only two games with a 15 plus in PPR. So in his career, he's hit that 15 point mark 26% of the time. I can't take a receiver like that with a, with a decent pick knowing that his success rate just is not very high and his injury rate, however you want to measure that, is pretty high. The inconsistency is definitely there for Fuller.

Remember, he had 200-something yards and three touchdowns. He had all three of his touchdowns in one game against the Chiefs. He's good for best ball. He's going to win you touchdowns in one game against the Chiefs. But, you know, I'm curious. He's good for best ball. He's going to win you a week in best ball. I'm curious to see what he does with 30% of the targets. I mean, DeAndre Hopkins was like a 30% target share every year. Yeah, but he's not getting 30%. No, he's not, but it just frees up a lot.

Oh, no, no. I'm not saying he's going to get 30%. It just frees up so many targets. All right, we'll see what happens. So Dave's obviously taking Cooks over Fuller. How about you, Ben? Oh, Fuller for me. Yeah, the concussions scare me with Cooks as well.

Okay. If Cooks doesn't get concussed and he plays 16 games, he's going to be at ADP. There's no question. Yeah. Are you taking either one of them by the end of round six? No, you don't have to. I don't think they go there.

I'm saying, do you like Fuller enough where you're going to really get up there and try and get him? I did that in the Twitch mock the other night. You guys had a little bit of a field day with it on the show. The reason I did that is I started running back tight end wide receiver running back which is a a pretty wide receiver thin start for me and then in the fifth i took a receiver in the sixth and the seventh i knew i was going to receive a receiver i was certain of it and so i went with my highest

ranked receiver in the sixth round and it was will fuller and i'm pretty high on him and i'm comfortable with that overdrafting a guy when you know whoever falls to you in the next round is just going to be another receiver and it was it was Debo actually and then I ended up getting Christian Kirk in the eighth on top of it all those guys from the same tier for me I have no problem with reaching in that type of a scenario where you know you're locked

into multiple players at a position take the best guy on your board all right more later at the wrong best guy on your board. All right, more busts later. I just think I got the wrong best guy. More busts later on in the show. We'll get to it. Let me promote a few things here. Next week, we got five episodes,

including a mailbag, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com and all of your Apple podcast questions as well. Please leave us a nice five-star review and ask a question. We got poker Tuesday night on Twitch. So that's going to be awesome. Twitch.com slash FF today. Playing poker on Tuesday night on Twitch. So, uh, that's going to be awesome. Twitch.com slash FF today,

playing poker on Tuesday night. I plan on doing really well. And next week, I didn't mention the content that we're going to have other than the mailbag. We are debating the top five at every position. So that's going to be a really fun debate for the quarterbacks and the running backs in particular, but really for the,

for the wide receivers, I'm looking forward to that episode is we haven't really, I feel like we haven't gotten into that one as much, you know, Julio versus Tyreek versus Godwin versus whoever's in your top five. So we'll take a look at the consensus rankings. We'll have some debates about it and that's coming up next week. News and notes. Well, I don't know that we have to react about this, but you probably saw the quote. Dr. Fauci

said, quote, unless players are essentially in a bubble insulated from the community and they are treated and they are tested nearly every day, it would be very hard to see how football is able to be played this fall. If there is a second wave, which is certainly a possibility and which would be complicated by the predictable flu season,

football may not happen this year. End quote. Meanwhile, Ed Werder from ESPN reported that three coaches expressed concerns about the virus. One of them saying maybe push it back, push the season back. I think one of them brought up not playing 16 games. It's an uncertain time right now. I think people are probably spooked by the positive tests. Now we got one in Denver. We had Houston and the Cowboys.

And I don't know if Sean McVay is one of those coaches, but just before we came on, I saw a Rams reporter mentioning that he had also commented on it and said, you know, something about that it would be tough to play football. He's like, we're supposed to be social distancing, but we're going to play football

and it's a contact game. I think it's a good idea if you're a league commissioner to start thinking about how you want to move forward with the uncertain times and what might happen. We talked about this on a podcast a couple of weeks ago, maybe a week ago today, where you expand a roster spot. Maybe you're entitled to the backup quarterback for a team. If you've got Mahomes, you automatically

have Henney. Something like that. Maybe use team quarterbacks, and then you can just avoid the whole rigmarole with that position. If they play this year, and I'm still optimistic that they will, guys, but if they play, I'm worried that there

will be people ruled out because they tested positive day of game oh yeah and if it happens on a Monday when you can't really replace somebody you're going to need some help and I think it's only fair if a commissioner runs that by past the rest of the play the people in their league um you know if a guy's out the this owner carte blanche to go to the waiver wire and pick up somebody else from this game to replace them, something like that. And the NFL is considering expanding practice squads to up to 16 players.

Practice squads have been 10 new agreement, has it up to 12 now, and it will potentially up to 16 players according to NFL network. That's good. You know? Yeah. Good. There's 22 positions on the field.

I mean, you're going to need at least one backup at every position. That'll be popular with the NFL Players Association. So that'll get done. Justin Jefferson is going to play a lot in the slot. Not a big surprise, I guess. Yeah, interesting. That was a no-no, too. We also got this email from neil uh from neil from clearwater beach email of the day fantasy

football at cbsi.com so many mixed news out there on how it works and how many games okay this is about holdouts sorry i forgot to read the subject line he wanted to know about the new holdout rules um last i read players can report then hold out five games in a season and get credit for the season. Anyhow, this rule change deserves clarity for all fantasy players. So I actually asked Will Brinson about it. I don't know if you guys know. I'm on it. Yeah. I asked Joel Corey, who's a former NFL agent who does a lot of contractual analysis for CBS Sports.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So it's true that if a player holds out for five days, it impacts his status for free agency the following year. His contract tolls. So if Dalvin Cook holds out for the first five days of training camp, he's going to be a restricted free agent next spring. You got me so far? He'll accrue this season. Just five days of training camp? That's it. agent next spring. You got me so far?

He'll accrue this season. Just five days of training camp? That's it. It used to be 30 days. I meant five days of training camp, not five games. Interesting. Yeah, no, the email said five games. Right. No, it's five days of training camp.

Okay. Zero games. So that's going to be something that it'll hurt his leverage for sure hold on for one second though because Brinson said to me Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon have to show up for training camp on the day their teams are scheduled to report or they don't get credit for an accrued season to get credit for an accrued season they also have to be on

full pay status for at least six regular season games. There is also a clause saying a player can lose a season for failing to perform his contracted services for a material period of time, which Will thinks is intentionally vague to give teams a loophole if someone shows up for day one and then goes rogue.

So I'm still a little bit confused, but what I understood was that this was designed to eliminate holdouts. They were sick of it. Either one is bad news for Dalvin Cook. Where's his leverage now to say, well, I'm going to stay away from the team. The team's going to say, okay, great.

Go ahead, stay away. We're going to keep you for 2021, man. Come on back when you're ready. And the other thing that I know, the fines, there's an issue with fines. If you're on your rookie deal, the fines you accrue from being a holdout can be forgiven. If you're on your second deal or past that and you're fined, those fines stand no matter what. Team can't take it away. So Dalvin at least won't get fined if he holds out and then he comes back. But I mean, I guess the gamble he's taking is that if he holds out, he's assuming he's going to sign a

new deal anyway. And that would just, it wouldn't matter what his status for next spring would be because he'd already be under a new contract with the Vikings. And then he said something like, I wouldn't mind getting paid $13 million a year guaranteed. Yeah, I bet he wouldn't. Yeah, I'd be cool with that too. Make him the second or third highest paid running back per year in the NFL. And I don't know if Minnesota's going there. Well, let's do

a few more busts here. And Ben, let's start with Aaron Jones, 17th overall on Fantasy Pros. That makes him RB11. He's basically got the same ADP as Nick Chubb. He's slightly ahead of Miles Sanders. I know you'd prefer Miles Sanders. He's basically got the same ADP as Nick Chubb. He's slightly ahead of Miles Sanders. I know you'd prefer Miles Sanders. He's also after Eckler and Drake.

I think he's after Eckler and Drake. Yeah, he's after Eckler and Drake. But Aaron Jones, anyway, where would you feel comfortable taking Aaron Jones? Why is he a bust for you right now? He's a bust because of, you know, we've talked about it all offseason, but there's there's even

more than just the surface level that we talk about uh we talk about the 19 touchdowns we talk about they they drafted aj dylan and he's so clearly going to play on on he's the size and and um speed of derrick henry he's so clearly going to play in short yardage situations so that immediately impacts a Jones scoring potential. Jones does have game breaking ability and should score from, from longer distances at a higher rate than any other, potentially any other running back in the league. He's a very good player.

I don't dislike him at all, but then there's the other side where the only time, even last year, he was over, I believe it's 60 or 65% snap rates is four, four highest snap rates of the year where the two games that Jamal Williams missed and the other two that he left early. So he was already kind of just a committee back last year who did better because Williams was getting banged up. And then also we've talked about how his receiving was dramatically impacted by Devontae Adams missing time.

And he saw a lot more targets and a lot more even downfield looks. They were splitting him out in those games. I know he had a huge game against Kansas City receiving. All of that came when Devontae Adams was banged up. So you have this whole confluence of factors last year that led to him having this breakout season. He's very, very talented, but it's not even necessarily the way the Packers wanted to use him last year.

And now they go and they draft A.J. Dillon, and he's going to steal all those touchdowns and everything. I mean, for me, love the talent. Can't draft him anywhere close to this. I mean, just, I don't know. End of the third? Beginning of the fourth? So that puts him in the Chris Carson, Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley range. Yeah, I have him ahead of those guys in my rankings, but that's not by much. Two spots ahead of Gurley, three ahead of Gordon.

I feel like there's really a huge obvious tier in running back. I was about to get into that. Right? I feel like it's after maybe the 12th or 13th running back in PPR and probably the same spot in non-PPR. It kind of depends on how you feel about Jacobs in full PPR. I think it depends on how you feel about Aaron Jones, too. He's either at the end of the tier or at the beginning of the next one.

To steal a term from Jamie, the bridge. He's the running back that will get you from that. It's basically the second tier of nearly running backs to the very good tier. Well, is he, which one is he in? He's in the very good tier,

but he's at the top of the very good tier. I can't put Chris Carson ahead of him yet. I can't put Melvin Gordon ahead of him. Not going to put Todd Gurley ahead of him. Heath has tried to draft running backs at that point. I mean, that's, that's going to be my whole argument with him

and with Melvin Gordon and Mostert that I already said earlier. Go to a different position at that point. But there's a difference, though, I think, with Aaron Jones compared to Gordon. Aaron Jones is so good. And what was the stat I gave? He's had 11 games with 15 or more carries and he has scored 14 or more

non-PPR points, non-PPR, in every single game. If they would just give him the work, he would be... But they're not going to. You can't ignore what they're telling you. They didn't last year

when Jamal Williams was healthy. They didn't last year. But they're also telling us that they're going to run the ball more than they did last year. Possibly. Do you think that? Honestly, they feel like they could be one of those teams that's top five in rush attempts.

I think they were like 13th last year. They drafted an absolute workhorse between the tackles grinder in the second round. But why would they go away from Aaron Jones? You always bring up Derrick Henry. I always bring up DeMarco Murray because Derrick Henry got almost no work in his rookie year behind DeMarco Murray.

Yes, but Murray wasn't already entrenched in that role and giving up touches to a third back before Henry was drafted. That's my issue is they weren't giving him a full workload when Jamal Williams was healthy last year. They weren't playing him on passing downs as much as Williams. They've always liked Williams as a pass blocker more. And then they go draft this guy who was a between the tackles, big bruising type of grinder back.

Of course, they're going to tell you they that are going to run more because they just drafted a second round running back. But like, I think the only way you can really make a case for Jones as much as I love how good he is, but for his role being big enough where you can consistently get 15 carries like you said is to kind of just say that AJ Jones is not going to do anything no he's not going to get consistently 15 carries I was just saying if he does if you if you're telling me he was a workhorse

feature back he's a first round pick probably for for everyone yep but yeah I don't think that but I don't know that he gets fewer touch because jamal williams had 107 carries last year jones had 236 i wish it hadn't been dependent on jamal williams getting hurt i guess but do you have the receiving numbers who have more targets i probably jones but you know there were four games that williams missed so right there's that but you're right about the catches with uh davante adams 12 games with adams he had 27 catches four games without adams he had 22 catches and all right let's move on let's get to one of david i mean listen it drives me nuts

how they use them too i'm with you yeah yeah i think they're doing it because they're they're trying to keep them upright and on the field because they know he's got a history of knee injuries and i think the dylan pick was one those, let's stay a year ahead of things for Gutenkunst and the rest of the front office in Green Bay. They know that Aaron Jones is going to be a free agent after this year. I think Jamal Williams, I don't think it's this year. I think it's next year. No, they were drafted together, weren't they?

I don't remember, but either this year or next year, Jamal Williams is going to be a free agent too. So one of those guys is probably going to walk. And Dylan is someone, he had to have reminded LeFleur of Derrick Henry. And LeFleur was there when Derrick Henry was there in Tennessee. And he was the offensive coordinator when Henry finally started to break out. So I'm positive that that's part of it too, is that they're trying to stay a step ahead.

And for this year, it's an embarrassment of riches. It's going to hurt fantasy managers. I'm not comfortable taking Aaron Jones unless it's round three at the earliest. And someone's probably going to take him before then. So you don't have to worry about it. Okay. So, you know what?

Why don't we group together a whole bunch of players here? They're all going in similar ranges. Ben has Melvin Gordon listed as a bust. He's 34th overall on Fantasy Pros. He's RB17. Just ahead of Le'Veon Bell, who's one of Dave's busts. He's RB18. And David Johnson as well, who is RB20.

I might have the orders a little bit mixed up, but it doesn't really. I think David Johnson's 47th overall. I wrote down that he was 37th overall. But it goes Melvin Gordon, then Le'Veon Bell, then David Johnson. They're all going before James Conner, for example, going before some of the rookies. But, you know, this group of running backs, veterans, I'll let you guys explain it. But this is something that I've really bought backs, veterans, I'll let you guys explain it. But this is something that I've really bought into, Ben, since you started hammering it home.

I want to give Dave the first words. I haven't really gotten him as involved. But it's part of that running back. Those aging running backs that be ahead of the curve as a fantasy owner and don't put too much stock into them. Is that sort of the curve as a fantasy owner and don't put too much stock into them. Right. Is that sort of the, the gist? Yeah. I think the line that I used was don't overpay for past production at running back.

Like that's my motto at running back. Right. Don't pay for the premium brand, pay for the discount brand that hasn't broken out yet. You know? All right. So let's talk about these guys. Melvin Gordon,

Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson, Dave, your overall thoughts there. Maybe, maybe they're not, but maybe they're not all busts. What do you think? I'm okay with Melvin Gordon, Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson. Dave, your overall thoughts there? Maybe they're not all busts. What do you think? I'm okay with Melvin. I get the rationale for why he's a bust because he's older and changing teams and he wasn't exactly a crusher last year when he came back from his holdout with the Chargers.

But I think that he's what the Broncos really want at running back under Pat Sherber. I think they want a running back who can do three-down work. And I don't think Phillip Lindsay was that guy because he was terrible in passing situations. And I don't think Royce Freeman was that guy because he wasn't that good specifically in rushing situations. And they had the opportunity to upgrade there.

And they did it with Gordon. And it's not to say that Lindsey won't play, but I bet Lindsey gets right around 10 touches per game. Melvin gets everything else, including third down work. And I think that it's a good offense for him to be in. It's a positive fit in terms of goal line work, pass catching work. He's done a lot of that before. I'm not saying that Melvin Gordon's about to embark on a great three or four year run with the Broncos,

but in redraft, I think he can give you one good year where he can finish as a top 15 fantasy running back. So that's the argument for Melvin Gordon. For Le'Veon and David Johnson, it's a whole lot of what Ben said, which is you're paying for pass production, except you're really not paying for Le'Veon's last two years. You're just expecting him to somehow magically come back to the form that he was in when he was with the Steelers. He saw a career low in touches with Adam Gase last year. I think it was 20.7 per game. In PPR leagues, I guess there's some redeemable value because he can catch four or five passes per game.

Gase hasn't had a top 12 running back since 2016, and he's been coaching and calling plays for offenses every single year since then. The offensive line's improved, but I don't know if it's going to be improved to the point where Le'Veon's going to get four yards per carry. He was around 3.2. He was terrible in the red zone, and he's 28 years old.

I'm almost at the point where i i'm gonna sink him in my rankings behind the rookies which maybe two weeks ago i thought i'd be crazy to do that but i'm just i'm so down on him that i don't want to have him on my team that i'd rather go get a rookie running back or more importantly this is where remember how earlier in the podcast ben referred referred to the point where Chris Carson and Gurley and Aaron Jones, that tier, the very good tier that we talked about, and that Jones was the bridge between the two of them, where he said, that's where I want to go

and get somebody at a different position. Where you're going to see Le'Veon go and David Johnson go, that's where I want to get a wide receiver. And that's in that round four, round five range. I don't want to get a running back in that range if I can help it. And if I do, it's probably going to be a rookie. And I'm not going to love it for the first few weeks of the season.

I agree with all that. Yeah. I mean, I loved it. Let me just say, here's kind of why Aaron Jones is so interesting. Especially if you have an early pick in the first round, you start with one of those top five running backs. He might be your only chance to get a running back, Aaron Jones,

until you reach this tier of running backs, of running backs that nobody wants. Same thing with Melvin. So that's why he's a bit of a conundrum. And he's obviously like, I think we all like Aaron Jones better than Melvin Gordon and Le'Veon Bellvy on bell and david johnson etc but you know this is exactly what i did that's why i ended up as with raheem mostard as my number two running back because aaron jones is actually off the board 23rd overall or i would have taken him maybe you guys wouldn't have i would have um but he was off

the board so that's why i had to make a real commitment to say nope no running backs now not interested i already had bark. I went with four straight wide receivers. But you know what I'm saying, Ben? It's like, there are so many running backs that we're just sort of like labeling as busts that it's a little bit difficult, I think, for fantasy managers to hear that and say, well, how am I going to get two running backs with my first three picks? Right. Where are my running backs going to come from? So there's two sides to that. One, I agree with you that Aaron Jones probably is that last one that you can

feel comfortable with. Although Dave's right about Gordon. Gordon's going to play on passing downs. And I listed him as a bus here mostly because we talk about the same bus on every show. When we talk about guys that we don't like, and I've harped on a lot of other guys, and I realize I don't really love Gordon. And then I

ended up taking him, like I said in today's mock mock in the fourth round, it was a 0.5 PPR draft. That's going to change things a little bit. Right. And I started Michael Thomas, Travis Kelsey. I was chasing running backs at that point. And I was comfortable taking Gordon at that point. And I've been a big fan of his for a long time, but 27 year old back, never been a particularly efficient runner joining a crowd of backfield and offense. It's going to throw the backs at a lower clip and often it's going to throw to backs at a lower clip, an offense that's going to generate fewer scoring chances. None of those things are good, right?

And there's similar negative trends with Aaron Jones. So the second thing I would say is how big of a difference is it between those guys and, like, for instance, in Gordon's case, Phillip Lindsey, who's still going to have a role, Kerryon Johnson, Damian Williams. This year we're actually in this weird spot where we're not real confident in all these rookies that were drafted high because there was a lot of rookies drafted high, but also no one wants to draft their backfield mates at all.

But those guys are going to produce fantasy points. Maybe they produce 8 to 10 a week. And my point is don't chase somebody into the third or the fourth round that you think is only going to produce maybe 14 or 12 points a week when you can get a guy for eight to 10 points a week later. And the difference at wide receiver, the difference of tight end is way bigger in that gap. So I think the clear answer for me is, again, the running back that don't just you have to be thin at running back early in drafts. You got to get really good at other positions. And there are options later that will get you points at running back. So don't take a guy that you don't think can be a 20 point per game score. If he's only going to give you a two or three point per week advantage over somebody could get the 10th round. And Dave,

this is a different conversation in non PPR, right? Well, I mean, I like Le'Veon even less in non-PPR. Okay, but specifically this running back conversation. Like, I don't think I can go one running back, four wide receivers in a non-PPR league. I'm even hesitant to do it in a half PPR league, but full PPR.

If you're playing in a full PPR league with three wide receivers and a flex, yeah, you can be totally fine with a running back in the first round and then nothing until the sixth round. It's perfectly viable. But non-PPR, I'm not sure. What about half PPR? Half PPR, you're looking at David Johnson.

You could probably get away with it in half PPR. You're looking at David Johnson and A.J. Green. Where are you going at David Johnson. You probably get away with it in half PPR. You're looking at David Johnson and A.J. Green. Where are you going? Probably Johnson because I'm souring on Green too. But, I mean, we haven't really even talked about David Johnson. At least Johnson's in a system that has produced decent running backs. I mean, Chris Towers, who's a huge fan of David Johnson, has said last year Carlos Hyatt had over 1,000 yards

and six touchdowns in Houston. So what's stopping David Johnson from doing that? And my thought is, well, if they don't use David Johnson the right way, and if David Johnson gets hurt again, that will stop him from being that guy. They don't, the track record for Deshaun has been not to throw to his running backs. His check down is throwing deep and now he's got more receivers to throw deep to than he's had previously. Downfield receivers, I should say. And I think the only thing that helps David Johnson now compared to where he was in Arizona last year is that he's got a better offensive line, but it's not necessarily a better offense. And it's one that may not be tailored to his strengths. And he's an old man too. Old being a relative term. I'm in my 40s and

David Johnson's like late 20s. Plus he'd beat me up if he heard me say that. And I don't want to get beat up. But I wouldn't take him in that 40 to 50 50th overall range. I think he should go past that. And I think he should be one of those running backs that you look

and you go, all right, I need a running back. I'll just take david johnson no one's very few people outside of chris towers are excited to draft david johnson this year yeah and there has not been a running back under bill o'brien that has had more than 44 catches on houston that was duke johnson they've averaged 54 catches 54 catches a year. As a unit. All the running backs in Houston since Deshaun got there.

And Duke is still there. No Hopkins, though. So again, that could help. Yeah, Duke is still there. That's the problem. By how many, Adam? I don't know. You're talking about a guy

who could be at 150 targets. He's gone. 50%. If there's 70 catches to go around between Duke Johnson and David Johnson, who's getting... David might get the most, but it might be 40 to 35. Well, all right, fine.

But then if you look at what Hyde and Lamar Miller have done, and then you say David Johnson could get 30 to 35 catches, he's probably getting 240 carries. So now you're talking about 270 touches for David Johnson. Yeah. How appealing is that? I guess I'll take David Johnson. The key for me for Johnson,

and I haven't been taking him either. And again, I agree with most all of what they've just said, but it will be whether he splits out wide. I think we'll know week one. Like if I draft him anywhere, I'll know week one if I want to trade him because if they're not splitting him out, then that's a problem. He's been very good split out wide throughout his career and in the slot.

He's essentially like a tight end. Like he has those skills. He's a good route runner down the field, and that's part of why he had such a monster receiving line back in 2016 in his huge year. And that line featured a bunch of air yards, which is something you don't see from running backs. It was the most air yards for a running back in any season.

This was at least true a couple of years ago right after he did it. It was the most he had since air yards had started being tracked, and by a lot, like hundreds more than any other running back that year. So he was a guy that could actually get down the field. If they're going to use him like that in the absence of Hopkins, which you brought up, then maybe there's a chance for him to get a lot more running back receptions. Because Dave's right. The trend is real.

But if David Johnson's not playing running back, it could be different. They gave up a third round pick for Duke Johnson last year. Yeah. Duke Johnson that way? When Duke was known the world over as passing down specialists they were like all right let's give let's give that guy three catches per game yeah i want to put the cherry on top of this sunday if i may adam because i love fattening food yeah oh man my birthday is tomorrow i'm gonna oh yeah happy birthday thank you and then bet that's uh ben's Oh, yeah. Happy birthday. Thank you. Some patsies? And then Ben's is next week.

No, Anthony's Coal Fire for me. Good. They have that near you in New York? Are you getting shipped or are you coming down? No, it's like 15 minutes from me. Okay. All right. That's good. The cherry on top.

David Johnson's schedule. Week one at Kansas City. Week two, Baltimore. Week three at Pittsburgh. Week four, Minnesota. Bad. I don't know if that's exactly their first four games I know Kansas City's first but those are some of the

teams they play very early on and then Le'Veon his schedule is really bad too for some reason I can't find Patriots no Patriots are week two I don't know he's got he's got the bills in the 49ers those in the Niners okay

right off the top all right guys we're gonna take a quick break we got two Bills and the 49ers. Bills and the Niners? Okay. Right off the top. All right, guys. We're going to take a quick break. We've got two more players to talk about. Odell Beckham and Devontae Parker. Who's got those guys as a bust? Then we'll run through Heath's list, which includes the number one quarterback in fantasy,

at least in ADP, and last year, Lamar Jackson. All right, we'll be right back on Fantasy Football today to wrap this up. Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone and celebrate every highlight real play. And as an official sportsbook partner of the NFL, BetMGM is the best place to fuel your football fandom on every game day. With a variety of exciting features, BetMGM offers you plenty of

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For free assistance, call the Connex Ontario Helpline at 1-866-531-2600. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. so silky so smooth how about the new pecan crunch oat latte nutty buttery deliciousness and crunchy pecan flavor trick question of course it's the last call for fall so don't miss out on your fall faves next stop starbucks so you're going to anthony's coal-fired pizza for your birthday that's the well-done pizza place and i just had it and I love it. I'm just curious what kind of pizza you're going to get, Adam. You don't have to ask me that.

Why? You know what I'm getting. The meatballs and ricotta and sweet pepper? Hell yeah. No, no sweet pepper. It's just meatballs and ricotta. It is the best.

Peppers make it. Peppers are good. The meatballs, man. It is such a... Meatballs are so good. Unbelievable slice of pizza. And I'm going to have like five of them. And I'm going to have some wings too. They have great wings. Yes, very good. The meatballs, man. Meatballs are so good. Unbelievable slice of pizza. And I'm going to have like five of them. And I'm going to have some wings too. They have great wings. Yes, very good

wings. I'm getting a cookie cake. When was the last time you guys had cookie cake? Oh. It's so good. We made homemade cookies this week. It wasn't cookie cake, but they were damn good. If you just make it in one big square,

bam, it's a cookie cake. All right. All right. So Devante Parker is one of Ben's best busts. He's going 58th overall. He's wide receiver 26, just after DJ Chark and Stefan Diggs. I want to say it was like the number three wide receiver in the last eight games of the year,

something crazy like that. Ben, you're saying no on Devontae Parker. Yeah, and we've talked about him a lot this offseason. I think wide receiver 26 is a little bit closer to reasonable. I've seen him go quite a bit higher than that at times this offseason, but I actually have him in my 30s and actually well into my 30s at 35, but in a big tier that starts around wide receiver 26 and goes all the way to wide receiver 40.

I'm concerned about Preston Williams coming back. They were essentially identical in efficiency before Williams got hurt, and obviously Josh Rosen was playing a lot during that time. I'm concerned about the fact that I think Mike Kosicki could have a big breakout. I'm also concerned about the Dolphins adding two running backs, Jordan Howard and Matt Breida, that I think will give them more balance on offense and they won't be such a pass-happy team as they were down the stretch last year. I mean, basically, Devontae Parker's season last year can be split into two halves.

The first half was very similar to his career numbers, which aren't fantastic. In the second half, he was pretty much all world is his yards per target was over 11. His touchdown rate was very high. Um, and look, Devonta Parker is very good, but he's also had a hard time staying healthy all throughout his career. He's not somebody that I can trust, uh, as a stable wide receiver two, um, or even high end wide receiver three, which I guess is where he's going here.

It's more of a backend wide receiver three slash flex for me. He was able to stay healthy. We all knew that he had good talent. He was a first-round pick. And Ryan Fitzpatrick just kept chucking it to him. Yeah. So if all those things stay true, then he can be fine. He can finish inside the top 24,

maybe even the top 15 at wide receiver. But I feel like it's asking a lot yeah you haven't even mentioned to a possibility that to a place at some point locked onto receivers a little bit at alabama right but he's not going to be as prolific as fitzpatrick i would i wouldn't think not that's great shouldn't be especially yeah i mean listen if fitzpatrick can gun it like he did last year behind that offensive line, then I guess anything's possible in Miami. That line will be better. I'm looking at this draft we did today, industry draft.

Three wide receivers. How would you rank them? Cortland Sutton, Devontae Parker, Jarvis Landry. That order. I believe I have it Sutton, Landry, Parker. Okay. Or I might have Landry ahead of Sutton, but I'm pretty confident I have Parker last.

In those last eight games for Devante Parker. The dolphins were on pace for the second most past attempts. The end of it. I don't know if they had the second most in those eight games, but if you take those eight games and you, and you multiply by two, they would have finished second passing. Okay.

It was really just a great combination of suckiness that led to Devontae Parker being a star. Odell Beckham, Dave. You have him as a bust. One of your bold predictions, he's going to be even worse than he was last year. And that's a bold prediction because he was 31st in non-PPR, 25th in PPR last year. Still had 1,000 yards and only four touchdowns.

Why is he a bust? And I'll give you his ADP. It is 33rd overall. Nin ninth wide receiver off the board yeah I think the offense is going conservative I think that's what Kevin Stefanski's addition of fixing the offensive line they had to do anyway but adding Hooper told me all right we're gonna the browns are gonna try and use more tight end friendly formations and plays to maybe on one hand

free up what's going on with his receivers but on the other hand make use of these other guys that they have particularly the running backs i think they're gonna try and run the ball like crazy that's why they got conklinlin and why they addressed it in the draft. And they've got one of the better offensive lines in the league now. And it would be silly to say, all right, Baker, just go chuck it. Go pull your own Ryan Fitz magic act. And I don't think that's going to happen very often. And Odell is still going to garner very tough coverage.

I don't think that there's anybody else on that offense that's going to force defensive coordinators to say all right we better just keep the safeties deep and we'll just try and bend and not break and give up a bunch of field goals i think you're still going to see safeties over the top of odell because coordinators aren't going to be afraid of less than 100 jarvis landry and and Austin Hooper. I think his touchdowns are in real danger of being right about where they were last year because of Hooper, who was a red zone threat for the Falcons. He's going to do that for the Browns. And because I think they're going to be able to run the ball in the red zone really well. Because when Chubb's tired, here's Kareem Hunt. And Hunt can catch passes out of the backfield too. So if we're relying on Odell Beckham to make big plays,

he's made his fair share over the last three years, but not as many as he did in his first three years. And the words of Ben Gretch are ringing in my head. Don't draft for past performance. And I think people are still going to do that with Odell Beckham. I can't do it given his injury history and given what I think this Browns offense is going to look like. And can I tell you who else is a red zone threat? Jarvis Landry. It's amazing he doesn't have more touchdowns. Here are his red zone targets in six seasons.

And I would say, yeah, like 13 is rookie year. That's good. Anything more than that's pretty damn good. 13, 22, 9, 21, 18, and 20. And in three of his six seasons, he's been third in the NFL in targets inside the 10-yard line, including last year when he had 11. So it's weird that Landry doesn't score more touchdowns

because he's always getting targets inside the 20 and inside the 10-yard line. And last year, he had twice as many of each as Odell Beckham did. All right. Uh, maybe part of that was because Beckham was hurt, but yeah, maybe he's been hurt each of the last three seasons.

He, he likes to get hurt at Odell Beckham. Well, I don't think he likes it. I don't think anybody likes it. Let's run through Heath's and you guys can just tell me agree or disagree. So, uh,

Lamar Jackson, 15th overall on NFC, 21st overall on Fantasy Pros. Is he a bust if he's going in the first two rounds? He's an ADP bust, but I don't think he's going to be a terrible fantasy pick.

I don't think anyone does. I don't think Heath does. Right. Heath would just prefer to get him in round three. I prefer to get anybody that you can get in round three and round four. How's that a bust if he's going, you know? Like, don't you have to be pretty bad to be a bust? That's how I look at it. Yeah.

I don't know. I don't know, Heath. All right. How about Clyde Edwards-Elair? 19th overall on NFC, 28th overall on Fantasy Pros in PPR, but 41st overall on Fantasy pros and non PPR. I think if you're cautious, if you're a cautious drafter,

you won't get Edwards Hilaire. Cause you'll say there's no reason why he should, he should be going this high when, you know, he's splitting duties. He hasn't won anything yet. You know, we're,

we're assuming that he's going to be amazing based on some good facts, like running backs under Andy Reed have a good track record, but he's, he's going to be amazing based on some good facts, like running backs under Andy Reid have a good track record, but he's got to win the job, and then they've got to give him all that work. And is that going to happen in September, or is that going to happen closer to Halloween? But again, we can't forget what teams do. They took him on the first round.

They made him the first drafted running back. They obviously love him. They're not going to not use him. I agree with Dave. You have to pay quite the price to get him, but I'm going to make sure I have exposure to him this year. He could be great for fantasy. It's like if you draft Lamar Jackson in the first round, you're

drafting him close to his ceiling. I think if you draft Clyde Edwards-Hilaire anywhere in the first two rounds, you're drafting him pretty close to his ceiling, unless he just mops up in training camp and just looks like an absolute stud. In which case, round two is going to be too late. Yeah, we've had rookie running backs year after year.

Last year was an exception because Josh Jacobs didn't catch a lot of passes. Miles Sanders was a late bloomer. They didn't finish in the top 12. But each of the four previous years, you had a great year from Gurley, a great year from Zeke, a pretty good year from Fournette and McCaffrey, a great year from Barkley. I mean, four of those, three of those guys. Kamara should be in there too.

Kamara, yes, and Kareem Hunt also. We're talking like four or five top five running backs. And I don't think you can discount what Sanders or even Jacobs did, but especially Sanders. He came on late. It's very similar. Kamara wasn't amazing from week one that year. Those guys helped you win leagues. No, but Kamara did finish in the top five.

Sanders didn't finish quite in the top 12, but yeah, you're right. Rookie running backs have impact. That's a noteworthy trend. The last one is Jonathan Taylor for Heath as a bust I think 31st overall is crazy that's where he's going

on NFC 52nd overall on Fantasy Pros and PPR do you remember when Zeke was going to like 6 overall I thought it was a little wild he was a rookie he was a first rounder I remember like him but a first-rounder. But those guys had much better cases than John.

If Marlon Mack was out of the picture and Naheem Hines was not quite as good as he's been and not as locked into this role on passing downs, then yeah, Taylor could be going ahead of Edward Ziller. Yeah, I'm just saying, you those top those guys were both top 10 picks to Taylor going 30 and it's not so crazy because Taylor is that type of talent frankly he's that he's that good of an athlete that good of a prospect he has to hold on to the football and

he's got to prove that he can be a good receiver out of the backfield you think Taylor compares the Barkley and Zeke? Zeke? Certainly. Barkley is maybe a notch ahead. Zeke, physically, they're very, very similar. Size and speed and 40 time, they're very similar.

Zeke was more versatile coming out. Barkley obviously was. Zeke had the pass blocking. I think he's behind them, but closer to Zeke than Barkley. Barkley is special. I was surprised that he wasn't the first running back off the board. I really was. He wasn't the second either.

Alright, Apple Podcasts. Just imagine how crazy we'd be going if Jonathan Taylor had gone to Kansas City. One thing we never really talked about. Behind an elite O-line, I'm still going pretty crazy. He's got to make Marlon Mack disappear. Their schedule's easy in the beginning of the year.

At least it looks easy on paper. Mac could get off to a decent start. It limits what Taylor can do. I think when it's third down in the two-minute drill, it's going to be Hines on the field. We never really talk about how Damian Williams can never stay healthy.

He only stays healthy during the playoff. He really cannot handle a workload so far in his career. That's a point for Edwards either. Apple podcast questions from EYIR. My question is, why is there absolutely no debate in the industry about who should go number one? There's only been one time in the last 20 years

and RB has repeated as the number one scoring non-quarterback fantasy player. That was LaDainian Tomlinson. This is not true. LaDainian Tomlinson. This is not true. LaDainian Tomlinson 06-07. I don't think that's true. Maybe it depends on the scoring system, but I will tell you that Todd Gurley in non-PPR was number one in both 2017 and 2018.

Christian McCaffrey was number one in 2018 and 2019 in PPR, although some scoring has Barkley ahead of McCaffrey in 2018, but they were basically tied. So McCaffrey's in PPR has been the number one running back two years in a row. This, this stat isn't as crazy as you think though. I think if you look at all 16 games,

I, when you're saying some scoring, it's not including week 17. Sometimes I think if you look at all 16 games, full season, I think it is true that it goes back to LaDain Thompson that no running back is repeated. First of all, I thought LaDain Thompson only had one season where he was the

number one running back, so I didn't even know that he repeated. I'm telling you for a fact, in our CBS leagues, based on our CBS scoring, in non-PPR, Gurley repeated in 17 and 18, and McCaffrey was tied, including week 17, where McCaffrey barely played. So on a per-game basis, he was definitely better

than Saquon Barkley in 2018, but he tied him in 2018, and then he blew everybody away in 2019. So really, on a per-game basis in PPR, I guarantee you, Christian McCaffrey has been the best running back two years in a row. Actually, actually...

This is the argument against McCaffrey. The only thing you can say that goes against Christian McCaffrey is, well, running backs never do this. They never go back-to-back as number one overall. I think if I draft McCaffrey number one overall, he ends up as the second or third best one in PPR. I'll live with myself. I would say that this is the exact way you shouldn't use long-term trends i think

it's an interesting note and adam you are right laden thompson in ppr only did it once i i'm pretty sure at least because that's that's something that i pulled uh when we were doing fantasy football yesterday i think it maybe goes back to priest holmes but no it goes back just before holmes falk did it it's an, but again, you're making a great point that McCaffrey essentially has done it, but he finished second. Gurley essentially has done it. Tomlinson essentially did it for like four or five years in a row. He was at least top three.

That's not number one, but it's top three. Like all of those things, there's various reasons why players didn't do it multiple years in a row, but none of them were Christian McCaffrey, who literally in PPR was 150 points clear of any other back last year. He was so much better than anyone else. He is the perfect fantasy back in terms of his receiving workload, his goal line work, his massive snap share. There's no argument for any other player other than going into some long-term trends that you don't think can repeat themselves but were never actually about a player

like Christian McCaffrey plus those long-term trends they don't support a different candidate it's not like McCaffrey just set the record for receptions by running back in a season so you could say that 100% of players who have caught as many passes in a season as him

were top two back-to-back seasons. All right. From JW. I know some people are nervous about Cooper Cup, but isn't it possible they were just trying to lessen the load on Gurley all first half? And once the late season run got there, they felt it was time to start feeding Gurley more. We all know Cup is golf's best friend, and I feel the fall off was more about saving Gurley for the end than Cup suddenly being bad.

Which was a philosophy that I pitched when we were talking about Gurley at this time last year, was that they would just kind of manage his reps until the end of the year when they really needed him, and then they'd give him more. I just didn't think it would come at, I didn't think cups playing time would go away because of it, but I still see cup is golf's best friend,

security blanket in the red zone guy. That's going to get a lot of targets in that offense and a lot of touchdowns in that offense took them at the 24th overall pick. This is how funny Twitter is to me. I took him 24th overall in this all-star half-point PPR draft that we've referenced already on the pod. And one person writes me, Cup at 24.

What a reach. That pick sucks. And then another mention says, Cup at 24. Man, that's great value. He's awesome. He's going to be great this year. So I think the world is kind of torn

on Cooper Cup, but I'm of the belief that he's still going to get a lot of work and still going to score a lot of touchdowns for the Rams. I thought it was interesting that when we looked at the slot rates, he was just as good or maybe just a small drop-off when he played outside. And I think we might see more two tight end sets from them this year. He might have to play outside a little more without Brandon Cooks. But I do think that they'll use Josh Reynolds outside too

and continue to use some three wide receiver formations. They're not going to go completely away from that. That's what their whole offense was built on in 2018 in their Super Bowl run. But they did get away from it last year is kind of what I'm referencing when Higby went bananas at the end of the season. And we'll kind of see how that impacts Cup. It did impact his snap share a couple of times because when they went to those multiple tight ends,

most teams don't use a slot in that scenario. Their slot guy comes off the field. And I know there was a healthy game for Cup where I only played like 30% of the snaps because they were using so many tight ends. They just basically didn't use him. But then it bounced right back. That was like week 14.

It bounced right back to like 60% or 70%, which was fairly normal for him, low. But now that Cooks is gone, he should play in two wide sets was the point. He's going to play outside a little bit more. He's going to have to be a little more versatile. But he'll be all right. He'll be all right.

Don't be surprised to see Higby and Gerald Everett line up wide. They did it a bunch last year. Yeah, that too. That's McVay looking for a matchup. He wants to put those size, speed differentiators out wide to see how

teams match up against them on this given play. From Jack, Deer, Fry, Bender, Farnsworth, and Zoidberg. That's Futurama, which I've only watched twice in my life, but I know it. And it's really funny, isn't it?

You loved it both times. I didn't. Obviously, I would watch it a bunch more times. It's great. Funny show. I'm starting a dynasty league. I was only able to find eight players.

What is the best lineup composition for an eight team dynasty league? Two quarterbacks, four running backs, at least three. I would just – you just jack it up, you know, double everything basically. Maybe not double it, but at least super flex or two quarterbacks. I would play at least three running backs, at least four receivers, maybe a couple of flexes.

You could do two tight ends. You could do one tight end. Yeah, I would just – we've talked about this on um future of fantasy concepts and we're talking about ways that we could change the game deeper lineups are more fun anyway so i would just make it a lot deeper at every position two quarterbacks two running backs two wide receivers one tight end two flex spots two all that's all you're doing. Yeah. Yeah. Why not? It seems too short.

Two running backs, two receivers, one tight end, two flexes. Yeah. No, three, three running back.

Three running backs for eight teams is 24 running backs, which is the same as two for 12 teams. Yeah. Three running backs, four wide receivers, two quarterbacks, one tight end, four flexes.

Bam. We are out of here. Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, four wide receivers, two quarterbacks, one tight end, four flexes. Bam. We are out of here. Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen. Have a lovely evening. Enjoy your weekend. We got five episodes for you next week for Dave and Ben. We'll talk to you on Monday. Thanks.