Fantasy Football Today - Busts! Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon, Lamar Jackson and More Big Names (08/13 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 13, 2025

Bid on Draft-A-Thon items here! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://tiltify.com/@cbs-sports/fft-draftathon-2025⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Being a bust doesn't necessarily mean you're going to be bad, but it does mean you'll underperform your ADP and pretty dramatically in some cases. Dave, Jamey and Heath each give two of their bust candidates (2:15) to start the show including Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones and Saquon Barkley ... News and notes (26:15) with a long discussion about James Cook and his new contract. Then we jump back into the busts and talk about Lamar Jackson (35:00), Breece Hall (41:30) and Patrick Mahomes (46:40). Are all of the Top 10 quarterbacks being drafted too early? ... We finish with more busts (50:10) including D.J. Moore, Joe Mixon, mid-round tight ends, Zay Flowers and Chris Godwin ... Email us at [e-mail] Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Shop our store: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠shop.cbssports.com/fantasy⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow our FFT team on Twitter:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ @FFToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ @AdamAizer⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ @JameyEisenberg⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ @daverichard⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ @heathcummingssr⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join our Facebook group⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for the FFT newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? It's a no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. This is going to go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Welcome, welcome.

It is Wednesday, August 13th. It's fantasy football today presented by BetMGM, with Sportsbook born in Vegas. Last year, we called Sequin Barclay a bust. It worked out so well. We're going to double down and do it again this year. Who are the biggest busts in fantasy? And what do you think out there?

I have a couple of, actually, three Twitter polls I want to throw out there. James Cook is on the bus list, but are we going to remove him? Because this list was sent in before the news broke that James Cook signed a four-year $48 million extension with $30 million guaranteed. We'll find out. All right. Adam Azer, Heath Cummings, Dave Richard, Jamie Eisenberg. Hello, everybody.

Let's go in that order. order. Heath Dave Jamie, give me two of your biggest busts based on average draft position, which you guys used CBS average draft position. I'm going to also use fantasy pros. Heath, you can start. Give me two candidates. I'll go with two old running backs, Alvin Camara and Aaron Jones. Alvin Camara and Aaron Jones. Now, Camara is a guy whose ADP is quite different, CBS versus fantasy pros. So that would be 30th overall as RB 13 on CBS. 38th overall, RB15 on fantasy pros,

is he still a bust at 38th overall? I mean, he's still a round higher than I want to draft him. So I think he's still about three picks higher than what our consensus rankings have him at. I just wrote a little more in-depth about Camara this morning, should be published on the site sometime today.

I just think, and again, like Barkley last year, overcame a lot of potential problems Camara has even more. He's a 30-year-old running back, decreased efficiency over the second half of his career, maybe one of the worst offenses in the NFL, if not the worst. And then there's this little weird thing about Kellyn Moore and past catching running backs, and he has really moved into some great situations.

When he took over in Dallas, Zeeq had averaged 5.1 receptions per game the year before. He averaged right around three in Kelvin Moore's offense. When he took over in Los Angeles, Austin Eccler, it had just five and a half catches per game for four years. He averaged three and a half per game for the Chargers. And then last year, I know it was Jalen Hertz, but Saquant Barclay averaged a career low 2.1 receptions per game. It's been a 36% decline for those three very good running backs

in their first year with Kellan Moore. And receptions are like the only thing that might keep Camara floater. Camara, I always say this, four straight years. He hasn't had a carry longer than 30 yards. Four years. That's looking at now, probably 800 carries or so, and he hasn't had a carry longer than 30 yards.

And I think it's easy to think, you know, Camara is different. I don't know if you would say he's different than what Echler was at his prime, but Camara is different. He's had such an extensive history as a past catching running back, but both Elliot and Echler had more receptions per game the year before. Kellyn Moore got there than Camara had last year. And both of them were right around three and a half per game the next year. Okay.

Anybody, Dave, Jamie, comfortable with Camara in round four? Yes. Early round four? Yes. Late round four. Okay. I haven't ranked in round three. But it's late round three.

And this is full PPR. Because what about half? Please make the distinction. No, he'd be late round four at the earliest in half. let me i'll just tell you where camara's finished so i mentioned last four years doesn't have a run of longer than 30 yards in those four seasons let's see what's what's he averaging per carry he's averaging uh three point sorry three point nine yards per carry over the last four years so hasn't been good he has finished as rb five 14 eight and six per game in those last four

seasons um all right he's going long runs man Well, he doesn't need him. That's the point. But if he doesn't need him if he catches five past the game. Right. Yeah. Which he's capable of doing. Heath, I do think you laid out a nice case against him for Kellynne Moore because at first I was like,

well, Kellynne Moore's got a pretty good track record of leaning on his running backs. It just hasn't been a heavy amount. And I think you made that point crystal clear. I think if you're drafting Alvin Camaro in round four, you're drafting him much closer to his floor than his ceiling. Last year, he was 19 PPR points per game in an equally crucial. Crappy New Orleans Saints offense. He's been over 17 PPR points, three of his last four years.

They were not equally crappy. They were 14th in yards, 24th in scoring. Okay. So they could be lower. They're definitely going to be lower in yards. They could be lower than that in scoring two. I do think Helen Moore is a very good play caller. I do think he's going to lean on Alvin Camara.

I have no problem taking this guy in a full PPR league. Like I said, he's ranked as a round three player. Yes, that's very high. But I don't like a lot of players in round three. I've got them in round. If you get them in round four, I think that's awesome. All right, not going to get a lot of disagreement on Aaron Jones. He's RB20 on CBS going 51st.

But on Fantasy Pros, Aaron Jones is going 65th at RB23. This is someone that all three of you had on the bus list, Aaron Jones. And RB23, so, okay, 51st is no way would we take him there. Jamie, when would you take Aaron Jones? Late 60s. Okay. I got him at 70. I got him at 70 even.

Yeah, I'm trying to think of what I have him. All right, Dave, give me two busts. Two guys I'm on an island for are DeAndre Swift and T.J. Hawkinson. Swift does have a great opportunity in Chicago. He's had great opportunities before in Philadelphia and Detroit. I think he has one year over 13 PPR points per game in his last four. I'm pretty sure he won't be the only running back in Chicago. Um, it's, it's, I'm sorry, it's 12.5 or 12.6 each of his last two years. He had 13.7, uh, in 20, 22.

With two? With Ben Johnson as a play caller in Detroit. It's a fair point to make, but I don't like taking him in round five. I think it's just too soon. It's too rich for my blood for a guy who might not run for a lot of touchdowns in short yardage. You're going to need him to really step up as a pass catcher. and there's just there have been inconsistent reports about this whole offense all training camp long. I really, I can't wait to see them. I'm going there on Friday, but the offensive line's been up and down. Caleb Williams has been up and down. I have not read much on Swift. Maybe that's a good thing. But I'm, I just, I've never really gravitated toward them.

I didn't gravitate toward them last year. And I, I would be nervous to take him with a top 60 pick this year. I think we have a show bet, Adam. Alvin Camara versus DeAndre Swift. Oh, I will take that bet. So wait, what side are you on, Jamie? You take it swift? Jamie's not in the bet.

He's just trying to arrange bets for other people. I want to be, I want to know this too. Well, usually I'm the one making bets with somebody else. So I think it's fun that you guys make a bet. I don't know if you've ever had a Heath versus Dave bet. Okay, Heath versus Dave. It's called, if you combine their names, you get death. So we're going to do half PPR.

I'll tell you're going to feel if you drafts. Oh, half PPR. Ooh, that makes things a lot more interesting. Dave would prefer Camara to Swift and half PPR, right? I would. Okay. Here we go. It is on.

I love it. All right. So we did see D. Andre Swift go in the fifth round in a draft that we did last night. I wasn't it. Jamie was in it with 11 audience members, listeners, viewers, what not. So he went in the fifth round. Heath and Jamie, are you both comfortable taking Swift in the fifth? Swift? Swift round?

Yes, very much. I'm comfortable taking them in the fourth. I just don't have to, but yeah. Yeah, second round. No second round, but I just think, like I feel the same way about Swift and the fifth, as Dave says about Camara and the fourth, is that what's the worst Swift has finished?

RB24? We think he's going to be worse than that reunited with Ben Johnson, with Roshan Johnson and Kyle Menung. guy as his main competition for carries. I have a hard time envisioning, unless he gets hurt, and he could. I have a hard time envisioning how he stays healthy and is a lot worse than where he's being drafted. Okay.

So does the bet void if he misses a bunch of games or if Camara misses a bunch of games? Okay. Let's do this. So it's per game, half PPR for the season. I'm willing to include injuries because I think Camara is much more likely to get injured and swift. So I think we can make no. All right, fine.

So it just, it is what it is. Whoever finishes higher. I don't like, I would, I would prefer to do a lot of azer statting. But that's fine. It's your bet. It's the death bet. T.J. Hawkins is the other guy. By the way, so on fantasy pros, though, DeAndre Swift is at the 5th, turn.

He's going 61st. He's RB22 compared to 54th and RB21 on CBS. One thing you're going to notice if you compare CBS ADP to Fantasy Pro's ADP, PPR for both of them. And I don't look at Fantasy Pro's PPR ADP with individual positions. I look at just the overall because if you, for whatever reason, it's just different data. But running backs go a little earlier on CBS. Our leagues are a little bit more running back heavy than the Fantasy Pro's consensus.

So fantasy pros, PPR ADP includes Sleeper. And I wonder if it's including any Best Bowl. It did earlier in the offseason. I don't know if it does now. All right, let's get a little bit, going a little bit more here with T.J. Hawkinson, who is going 78th on CBS, but 65th on fantasy pros. And he is tight-end six on fantasy pros. And I think he's tight-end seven. One, two, no, he's tight-in seven. Yeah, Titan seven on CBS. But, Dave, you have that 78th as a bust. And he's actually going 13 spots earlier on Fantasy Pros. T.J. Hawkinson, your quick case there. He's barely in my top 100. If fantasy seasons lasted the first three weeks,

I would be completely on board with this. I'd probably have them even higher than that. But once Jordan Addison comes back and once Justin Jefferson's good to go, and it sounds like he's going to be good to go, Hawkinson's going to be third fiddle in this offense. We saw Addison become a red zone weapon last year. We know that the Vikings are going to try and run the ball a little bit more this year. They added Jordan Mason.

He could steal some touchdowns in short yardage. That was definitely an area where Hawkinson got some good numbers. And he also had good volume two years ago. I don't know if he's going to get back there. We can give him a pass for last season because he was coming back from the ACL, and that's fine. But I can't view him in the same lens as some of those other tight ends that are going after him.

Evan Ingraham, as an example. You know that I'm bullish on Tyler Warren. I wouldn't take Loveland over Hawkinson, but I would take Kraft over Hawkinson. I'm very worried about his upside, provided that everything in the Vikings' offense with a first-time starter at under center, being healthy and taking away volume from them.

Jamie, Heath, are we co-signing on this Hawkinson bus call or are we disagreeing? Disagree. Yeah, I think his ADP is pretty much appropriate, and I feel like I'm missing out on the potential of him being better than that more than worried about him being a bust. Yep. Especially with the way that they've talked about wanting to create,

more layups in this passing game for J.J. McCarthy, I think that's targets to T.J. Ockinson. And, like, last year was bad coming off of an ACL, but a lot of it was just they didn't score any touchdowns in his final 10 games. I don't think there's any reason to believe

that's going to be the case in the coming year, and he was tied for tight-in one before he tore his ACL, the year before. I just think he's probably a top seven tied in. He's got a chance to be a top five tied in. Okay. All right, let's get

Jamie's bus here. Before we do that, though, I want to remind you that if you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, use the bonus code fantasy when you sign up and you're going to get up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with BetMGM. Here's how it works. Download the BetMGM app and sign up and use the bonus code Fantasy.

Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game, and you'll receive up to $1,500 in bonus bet If your bet loses, just make sure that you use the bonus code fantasy when you sign up. All right, Jamie, hit me with two bus calls. Just take the low-hanging fruit, Sequin Barclay, third overall, second player off, second running back off the board. And Terry McLaren, still concerned with this holdout, hold in,

and going in the fourth round, I will not be doing that. I'll not be drafting him there. Barclay is going third overall, both on Fantasy Pros and CBS. McClorin is a little bit different. He's going 40s. Oh, you're not going to like this. It's going 47th overall on CBS, going 41st overall in Fantasy Pros, Consensus, PPR. But that's both of those are wide receiver 19.

So, again, that's just the difference. CBS is a little more running back heavy. Consensus, a little more wide receiver heavy. But wide receiver 19 for Terry McLaurin, who's got him? Does anybody have him in the top 20 or is everybody outside of that? I still do. He's 30th for me. When do you move him down, Heath?

probably in the next week or two if nothing's changed maybe even in the next week um but again i think like the james cook signing just showed generally these no matter how contentious these things get they end with the player on the same team that's my expectation the concern for terry mccloren is that he misses too much practice and right now as of today i think we have what three and a half weeks until their first game. So it might be this weekend. I'm like, okay, now he can't get three weeks' worth of practice of the team.

I'll ding him a little bit. If we get down into the last week of things and we're still here, then I'll probably be closer to where Jamie is. Would you guys take Tedroa McMillan or Terry McLaren? McBellon. I've still got Terry. Just to stick with the initials, would you take Tracy McGrady or Tederole-McMillan or Terry McLaren?

Would you, okay, let's talk about Stakewan Barker. in a bit because we have a question here that says, what's it say? What's the definition of a bust? Okay, yeah, what's the definition of a bus? Sequin being a bust doesn't make sense. And then he said maybe not second, or in this case, third overall. But if he was returning first round value, what happened there? Who did that?

Oh, you clicked the wrong button, did you? Interesting. Oh, wow. If Barclay's returning first round value that is in a bus. I can try to roll the tape, but Jamie, address this real quick here. What's the definition of a bus as it relates to Stake-on-Barkley?

You get this question a lot. Obviously, still having Barclay as a first-round pick, and I get it. It's as much of a concern as it is a bus call. So whenever you see somebody getting drafted, first, second, third, and still saying they're going to finish 8, 10, 11, 12, whatever the case may be,

is clearly a hard explanation to even get to. I think just the, for me, there's five running backs I would take over him, four running backs I would take over him, handful of receivers I would take over him. I'm just concerned that it's going to be a rough year from, I don't want to predict injuries, but there's a high chance for a guy that's had an injury track record that just had 480 total touches to have the same situation happen to the guy that was first overall at the position 23 going into 2024 in Christian McCaffrey. You know, so all the work, coming back next year, all the expectations were the same, and he played four games.

The statistics obviously are not in his favor. The historical data is not in his favor. So anytime you see it running back over 400 carries, anytime you see it running back over 408 touches, 450 touches, they tend to break down the following year. All the 2,000-yard rushers from one year to the next lost an average of 500 yards or more. six of the eight, we're down 800 yards or more. So I'm just expecting a trend in the wrong direction for Barclay. But to be fair to the question, I don't have the balls to put him in the second round. Oh, all right.

Jamie, this is not a night episode. All right, careful there. You're being honest? No, by the way. He's a red zone weapon two years ago. Oh, no. What happened? Oh, no.

What happened? I'm so sorry. He didn't take away my privilege. And that is exactly how calling Sequin Barclay at bus last year felt about. That was a clip if you missed it of Heath trying to leave the studio during, what was it? It was running backs. No, it was tight ends. We were talking about Jake Ferguson, I think, at the time.

trying to leave the studio and instead ending the stream. So that was good stuff. All right, we're going to take a quick break. Dave, Jamie just gave you a lot of stats on Barclay. Dave, you have a great stat about something like 80% of them lose this much production or whatever. If you have that handy, bring it out. And then we'll talk about where we'd take Barclay. And I have a Twitter poll of when the people would take Barclay, because he has obviously the headliner of this bus list.

We'll be right back on FFT. All right, we're back. So, Dave, hit me with your best stat. Hit me with your best stat. All right. This is going to take a minute, so everybody buckle up. Barclay is the 25th running back to get over 400 carries in the season. Of the prior 24, only three outperform their PPR per game average of their 400 plus touch year.

Four were close enough to their PPR average from the year before. No one would complain about it. They were behind their average. You get the point. Of the remaining 17 running backs, 16 either got hurt or missed at least seven games or saw a PPR decline of at least 25 percent or all of the above. That means 70.8 percent of the running backs with at least 400 carries faded significantly the following year. Not a single one of them who was 28 years old or older did better the following year. Their average drop in points per game was five.

5.4. No, none of the seven saw an improvement in their PPR point per game average. Only two saw a drop lower than 5.4 points per game. I swear I know how to read. Last thing, Barclay's already had two years of his career where he's had at least 350 touches or at least 250 carries in the season. The following year, his numbers declined by 12% or more. I don't think anybody would complain if Saquan Barkley's numbers fell just 12. percent from 2024 to 2025. But I don't think you'd want that if you take him 101 overall. I would be okay with that if I'm taking him eighth overall, ninth overall, 10th overall. That's where I'm taking

Sequin Barclay. So yeah, I don't have the volleyball or botchy balls to say that he shouldn't be a round one pick. I think he's a back half of round one pick and there's other running backs I'd rather have, including Bejohn,

Gibbs. And then the other two I would definitely take out of them are H.N. and McCaffrey. I'm going to throw up the poll here. Where are you taking Saquan Barkley in a PPR league? I put it up just a little while ago a couple hours ago. So only 672 votes, but picks one through three, 25 percent. Picks four through six, 50 percent. Picks seven through nine, 18 percent. Picks 10 through 12, seven percent. So 75 percent are saying top six, but 50 percent. percent overall picks four through six. That's where they're taking Saquan Barclay. And I'm sorry, I know Jamie and Dave are later than that. They're probably in the seven to nine or ten to twelve. What about you, Heath?

I think I'm sixth. All right. So here's the play. If you think we're full of crap, find the person picking in the top six in your league and see if they don't like Saquan and then make a trade before your draft starts. So you get into the top six and you have a shot again. getting Saquan. The other one was Terry McLaurin.

We talked about him. So from Heath, it was Camara and Aaron Jones. Camara going in round three in CBS leagues, round four in fantasy pros. You heard different opinions there, especially from Dave, but Heath does not want Camara in round four. Aaron Jones is on everyone's bus list, you know, consider him maybe closer to 70th overall. DeAndre Swift was a bust mostly just for Dave. He doesn't want Swift in round five.

I know Heath is comfortable with Swift and Round 5. Jamie, are you good with Swift and Round 5? For the second time, yes. I'm sorry. T.J. Hawkinson was one that Dave kind of had just exclusively for him. We have a lot of mutual busts, which is good. But I thought, yeah, I'm glad you guys brought up the ones that you disagree on earlier in the show. And then Sequin Barclay and Terry McLaurin that we just went through.

Those were Jamie's busts. And, you know, you heard Heath be a little bit different, especially on McLaren. Okay. we do have some news and notes. So before we get to get to that, though, I've got six people out there who have not responded to the FFT Open invite

who have not responded to my follow-up emails. Please, you have until Monday and then I might have to remove you from the leagues. I really don't want that to happen. You so generously donated. Get in touch with me. Fantasy football at CBSI.com. That's the letter I or just look for the emails I sent you.

But if you haven't accepted your invite yet to the FFT Open, you know, I'm, let's do it. Let's make it happen. We're on CBS Sports Network every Monday and Wednesday, at least for the foreseeable future, at 1 p.m. Eastern. So if it's not 1 p.m. Eastern yet on Wednesday, you still have time to watch us on CBS Sports Network.

And we're live streaming tomorrow from, I don't know, roughly 415, 4.30 p.m. Eastern until 6 p.m. We're going to live stream the tennis match. But while that's going on, we're going to have people talking about tennis, but we're going to be answering your fantasy questions. So, Heath, you're going to be on there with Jamie? I will be there. Excellent.

Today is Wednesday. We are doing the breakouts bonanza today. So that is four different episodes with a guest on three of them. We have Jake Seeley coming on to talk quarterback breakouts at 5 o'clock p.m. Eastern. We have J.J. Zachariasin to talk running backs at 5.30. Then we're going to take a little break. Going to get some dinner. 9 o'clock, it's me, Dave Jamie Heath.

If you know those guys, we're talking tight ends because, you know. I'm not going to bring a guest down to talk tight-end breakouts. That's insulting. And then Chris Harris wants to talk about wide receivers. He's going to talk wide receiver breakouts at 930. So you can watch them live on YouTube. YouTube.com slash fantasy football today. That's all of our live streams are there.

Or just wait until tomorrow. I'll be publishing all four of them. They're going to be about 20 minutes, 25 minutes at most per each episode. But should be a lot of fun breakouts and not just us. You're going to hear from great guests around the industry. All right. Here we go. News and Notes.

James Cook, four years. Here, $48 million extension, $30 million guaranteed. Jamie, you had him on the bus list that you sent me this morning before this news broke, and he was going 31st overall as RB15. Fantasy pros almost the same 32nd overall, but RB13. Are we removing James Cook from the bus list? I will be removing him from the bus list. I will not be drafting him 31st overall, though I still think that's too soon.

Okay, when would you draft him? End of the third round. All right. So three, four term, we're saying? Dave Heath. James Cook, when would you take him? Go ahead. All right, I'm the high guy on James Cook.

I'll take him a little bit before the end of round three, but solid third round pick for me, behind the top three quarterbacks. What about Garrett Wilson or James Cook? Cook. Wilson. Oh, I forgot. I did have a Twitter poll. When would you draft James Cook in a 12-team PPR League?

First six picks of round three, 29%. Look, this is pretty. This is pretty good poll here. The second, the last six picks of round three, 34%. First six picks of round four, 25%. So it's split pretty evenly from picks 25 to 42. I was going to make this point with a later poll, but I'll just go ahead and say it now.

And I think it applies to the Barkley thing too. Like 29% of your fantasy league is maybe four guys, three or four guys. So it doesn't really, like, it's good, you did a good job. here of balancing out this poll. Good job, Adam. Thank you.

But the winner doesn't necessarily determine where they're more likely to go. If there's even 10% in the highest group, there's a chance that he owes that high because if that guy has that pick, you know, I think it's telling that there's a pretty wide range. Like the Sequin Barclay had 50% were voting on one of the ranges. Here we have no more than 33.5%. so you can expect him anytime round three to mid round four I guess James Cook

it's fascinating with him with the touchdowns because everything else literally everything else came down for him last year it's true I think he's a better bust case than McLaurin if McLaurin's not holding out like if McLaurin comes back tomorrow like we've talked a lot about Terry McLaren's

touchdowns but at least Terry McLaurin was the same guy like James Cook's everything looked worse worse and was just made up for it by the touchdowns. I love James Cook. I love him. Yeah. And I don't want to monopolize this show because I think people want to hear your

your busts, but I am vehemently against any bad talk about James Cook. He is the number one running back on the Buffalo Bills. And it's unusual because he played about 50% of the snaps. I know all the numbers came down last year, but like the catches and the touches on that. But there's no reason why they, can't go up a little bit this year. They are a very run-heavy team. They've gotten a lot more run-heavy

since they changed offensive coordinators inside the five-yard line and near the goal line. So even though Josh Allen is going to be a factor there, James Cook is also going to be a factor there. And I think the case I have for him, so I could just try to find it here, where he was in 2023.

2020, he was running back 19 per game, and he scored six touchdowns. So I know that he had touchdown, he has touchdown regression coming, but, I mean, if he can just score 10 touchdowns. I don't see how he's not a top 15 running back. So that's... Oh, I think that's absolutely fair.

Right. So I don't think he's going to be a bust in round three. I think he may not win you your league, but I think he's a very safe pick in round three. Yeah, I don't disagree with that. It's a matter of, again, who you're comparing him to. And, you know, I think when you start to look at it, it's probably, I think a lot of people will say

Kyron, you know, through Ken Walker and Hampton and those guys. You know, I think Dave would have Camara in there. He might have Swift in there. You know, just looking at those bunched-up running backs. I think, for me, it's Trevion and Harvey. Like, where's the upside versus what the downside is? And so for the snapshot to be better,

then I think everything else would be better for him. So will they be in more competitive games, where they're going to use them a little bit more? How much did they like Ray Davis? How much did this window of opportunity that Davis got over the last two weeks of Cook not practicing, maybe increase the likelihood that they're going to give him more work, which is some of the things you're hearing out of Buffalo?

And then it's the touchdown. regression you know so you say he scored six touchdowns four of those are receiving yeah so he had four rushing touchdowns combined in the first two years of his career then that spikes to 16 and so to he's point like if the touchdowns do regress as we're maybe projecting for mccloren if it goes from 16 to eight or 16 to six like and then maybe still gets the four receiving touchdowns if you want to give him that out to get into 10 like that's pretty scary i don't think so i think 10 touchdowns will be fine for a third round pick especially one you need is you need his rushing efficiency to go up And you need his point time.

He averaged 4.9 yards per carry, average 4.7. That's the thing. He is, he is super efficient. Yeah, what, if you take away, so he scored 18 touchdowns last year, right? Yes, 18. In 16 games. So if he scores 10, he's losing eight touchdowns. Yeah.

48 total fantasy points. Yeah, what's that? He played 16 games, so three points a game. Two and a half three. So he would have averaged 13.7 fantasy points per game last year would have finished him between Aaron Jones and the Andre Swift. with 10 touchdowns. Yeah, I don't know, but if he didn't score,

like he had a lot of long runs. He had some long touchdown runs. So in theory, if he doesn't have those long touchdown runs, he probably gets more carries or more catches, right? I think it is going to come down to the touchdowns and how many he scores. The 18 touchdowns,

obviously the most by any running back in the Josh Allen era. He had nine games with 15 plus PPR. How many of those games did he score a touchdown in? That's your trivia of the day. Nine. nine is correct every single one of them and he had almost 18 ppr points in eight of the nine so they keep finding ways to get them in the end zone and if they do give them a little bit more work

we know the efficiency is already good if that somehow gets better it's got to be one or the other or both both would be good but i'm fine with him in round three i think if once it gets to 30th overall in your draft the light's green on james cook i get 28th in plays last year for the I think that's a way to help solve this problem, is that they're not one of the lowest in the NFL, because they had the fifth highest run rate. Not all that. It was Cook, obviously, but they just didn't run a lot of place. All right, we've set our piece.

Back to the news and notes. Najee Harris is practicing. It could be ready for week one. Chargers coordinator Greg Roman said Omari in Hampton's going to split carries with another running back in week one, or he's going to split snaps, even if it's not Najee Harris. You guys taking Hampton or Cook? Cook now. It's Cook.

Okay. Is Hampton the second highest rookie running back for you? Yes. Yep. I've got Henderson higher. Okay. He's the second highest rookie. Yeah.

Regardless of position. Remandre Stevenson missed practice. Don't know what that's about. Could be nothing. Malik Neighbors has a shoulder injury. He's been out a bit. AJ Brown was limited the last couple days, I think, but he missed practice today,

or at least it's practice is ongoing. as we record this, but A.J. Brown is a hamstring issue. Ken Walker returned to practice. Mason Taylor, Jets rookie tight end, he returned to practice with a high ankle sprain, so he barely missed any time. That was interesting. I think just to keep in mind, though, with Naji and with Mason Taylor, they're still doing individual work, not doing teamwork. Okay. I knew that about Naji. I did not realize that about Mason Taylor.

Kevin Fishbane of the Athletics said that Caleb Williams has struggled with consistency and accuracy during training camp. Ooh, not a great camp for him. Matthew Stafford's still not back at practice. San Francisco and Joanne Jennings are not close to an agreement according to the San Francisco standard. Saints left guard Trevor Penning has turf toe, which could be a multi-week absence.

And Packers News, Christian Watson likely to start the season on the Pupplist, which is not a surprise. He's recovering from a torn ACL. And Romeo Dobbs left practice on Tuesday with a back issue. Let's get back into the busts. So Seguan Barclay was when we already talked about. How about Lamar Jackson? He's going 17th overall on CBS.

He's going 21st overall on fantasy pros. This is a Dave Jamie Heath bust in terms of 17th overall. And you know what I'm going to do? I'm just going to reference last night's draft. Is it worse that Alan's going 18th overall, though? Yeah. Both are too soon for us. And this is where everybody just needs to pay attention.

We're not saying that they're going to have bad years. There's just other players that we'd rather have at other positions rather than these quarterbacks. It just seems like, you know, if Alan just won the MVP and had, I don't want to say down fantasy season, but he obviously was not the best fantasy quarterback. And Lamar just had an amazing fantasy season, and they're going so close to each other, you're getting a little bit of a discount on Jay and Daniels, at least on our site. Can a discount on Jay and Daniels is going 32nd overall? And then you're getting an extreme discount. Like, if you're just expecting, you know, year over year to somewhat be replicated,

the biggest discount is Baker, if you're just looking at it from where he's going comparatively to where he finished. Now, nobody's expecting him to finish in the same spot, which is why he's not ranked there. But, like, I just don't get, it's almost for me more Allen than it is Lamar. Because I feel more comfortable that Lamar can do what he did last year. And Alan, I feel more comfortable that both guys will replicate what they did last year. Did that make sense? I mean, and one thing to know is like this happens every year.

We knew this was going to happen. We get to mid-August, and we have this great tracker on our ADP that shows who's moving what directions. Jamie writes an article about it every week. And if you look at the quarterback ADP page, it is universal green arrows up. Yep. Seven spots for Jackson, nine spots for Allen, seven for Burrough, seven for Daniels, nine for Hurts, eight for Mahomes, 12 for Mayhill. field like across the board all quarterbacks are on a screaming rush to the start of the draft

and we just don't think that you should play with that i will say just in in defense of that we do not separate superflex and one quarterback leagues so whatever percentage of people playing superflex on our site is going to influence the quarterback adp getting pushed up so when are you guys comfortable taking Jackson and Alan? And also, Jamie, after you answer that, I want to get you to clarify what you were saying about the replicating the stats. I didn't quite understand what you were saying, but when are you guys taking Alan

and Jackson? 28. 28. All right, Jamie, what were you saying? Because if you think that... I think that Jackson's more likely to replicate what he did last year at his number, and Alan is most likely to

replicate what he did last year at his number as well. And they were five points different in six per pass in such a least. I mean, Lamar Jackson, 41 touchdowns, four interceptions. It's kind of hard to expect him to score 30 points. Not necessarily just in terms of the exact same thing, but just I think Jackson is going to be the clear-cut number one fantasy quarterback. This is the poll that I wanted to say what I said earlier.

Like if 16% of your league is okay taking Lamar Jackson in the first two rounds, that means there's two people that are going to have to pass on them twice that feel comfortable doing it. Yesterday, Josh Allen went in the first round, or second round, second round. Lamar Jackson went in the third round. This poll says, when would you draft Lamar Jackson in a 12-team league? Round 1, 4%, round 2, 12.5%. Round 3, 50.6%, round 4, round 4, around 4%?

Round 4%? Most of the votes are in round 3 or 4, but you're right. There are people that would be comfortable taking him in round 1, some in round 2. If he scores 30 points per game, he should be maybe the first pick in fantasy. I mean, but he's already done that once and then not really come close to that in like the next three years. The counter to obviously taking quarterbacks early is which quarterbacks you're going to pivot to.

And if you're just looking at last year, there were five guys that finished basically drafted or not even selected after pick 100 overall or later. And I just want to bring up one more thing here. Jaden Daniels are not talking about him as a bust. You could definitely look at Josh Allen's points per game. Oh, you know what? I made a mistake when I said Allen was five points per game worse than Jackson

because I forgot that included playing one snap in week 17. It was a lot closer than that. But Josh Allen's... What's that? Week 18, not week 17, sorry. Yeah, 2.9 if you exclude week 18. Okay, thank you. Josh Allen's best seasons came with Stefan Diggs being amazing.

I don't know how the absence of Terry McLaurin or a slow start from Tara McLaurin, like, how does that not affect Jaden, Dan? Should we be more concerned about that? We keep talking about it from a McLaren standpoint. Hardly ever from a Daniels standpoint. I know he rushes. But doesn't that, doesn't McLaren matter to Jaden Daniels?

The receiving court is pretty bad without him there. Yeah. You know, Debo's apparently in great shape now. And it looks like he's going to have a pretty prominent role, which hopefully will be awesome for Daniels. But you're right, Adam. I mean, you know, you get past those two guys, and it's, you know, Noah Brown and Luke McCaffrey

and, you know, a bunch of guys that are, you know, hoping to make plays for them that they're a little bit concerned about, at least after you, you saw what the preseason game looked like where McClorin and Debo didn't play. So Zacherts is going to have a role, but he's in his mid-30s. You know, Ben's in, I don't think is ready to me a significant playmaker. Austin Neckler's in his early 30s, like, you know, all of their past catchers are older for the most part. So yeah, there probably should be a little bit more concerned with Daniels, but you said it. Like his running is going to hopefully give him a floor that a lot of quarterbacks can't match. And then if he's able to cobbled to

together his passing stats with whoever is catching passes from him. But yeah, it probably is worth a look of just, you know, a reevaluation, at least, of Daniels versus Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurth, the two quarterbacks going after him. And in our ADP, Daniels is going fourth. Burrow is third. Oh, wow. And our ADP is mostly six point per passing touchdown leagues.

I'm not saying I don't think I wouldn't do that. I mean, I don't think any of you would do that. But it's at least worth asking the question. Okay, Burrow is better than last year. You know, as great as we're hyping up, Jay and Daniels, which we should. you know, Burrell was better. He sure was. All right, let's go to the next one here.

Breece Hall. So, Breece Hall is RB 14 on CBS going 31st. This is a Jamie bus call. Breast Hall is also RB14 on Fantasy Pros and he's going 33rd. So this is one where the ADP is nearly identical. Mid-round three for Breece Hall, RB 14.

Jamie's saying he's a bust at this price. Dave, Heath, do you agree or disagree, of Breece Hall in round three, mid-round three? I'm good with it. It's like a half round earlier than I'm okay with, but I've got them in round three. Okay, Jamie. I've got them right on the three-four turn, but if you wanted to take them then, there are too many names in front of them that I just think that there's not a huge difference.

Jamie, go ahead. What's your bus case for Breeze Hall? I mean, everything that's come out of their mouth, including his mouth about him not being their guy, is starting to play itself out right now. Whether it happens in the season remains to be seen. but they're going to use multiple running backs, whether it's going to be two guys or three guys, they're going to use multiple running backs.

Then you factor in Justin Fields. They want to run the ball. All four of these guys are going to have an opportunity to be part of this rushing attack, which should be great. Hopefully that benefits pre-sall. But you look at the way that he finished last season. You look at the situation, again,

that's unfolding in front of us. This team may not be that great in terms of scoring touchdowns, and he has five rushing touchdowns each of the last two seasons. I don't think he's getting over 50 receptions, which he's done each of the last two years. So if his receiving numbers come down,

could feel more like a trapback, I think round three is just way through soon. I still have him as number two running back. For me, I'm not taking him to the back end to round four, though. You look at some of the names on the other side of the page here based on our PPR rankings. I would take Chuba over him. I think that's easy. Hampton and Walker.

I would take Camero over him. I would take Henderson over him. I would take Harvey over him. I'd take Conner over him. And I'm getting to the point where I would probably take DeAndre Swift over him if it continues to play itself out as it's unfolding. So I think I'm just out on Brise Hall altogether. Okay. Anybody want to argue against that?

How many games do you think he will have 15 or more touches in this year? I would hope most. But what are those 15 touches, though? Well, I mean, they could come, obviously, as 10 carries and 5 catches or 15 carries. If he's getting 10 carries a game, he is a huge bust in round 3. Sure, absolutely. The point I was trying to make is he had 10 games last year. with 15 plus touches, and he averaged 19.3 p.pr points per game in those 10.

And four of his last nine games last year, he was 10 and a half ppr points or less. He got hurt, and that changed the way that his season ended. Weeks 1 through 11, he was averaging 16.7 points per game. Yeah, I would take the under by, I don't know, 30%, 40% of that. Under of 19, of course. What about 15? Under. You're obviously thinking under. I do love getting some Braylon Allen late. I thought Allen looked better than Breece and their preseason game. Not that

Breece played a lot. He played three carries or three snaps. He barely played. But he, Bruce missed hold lanes and I don't know. I'm not sure about just how good he'll be. That's why I kind of couched it at the three, four turn. But whether I get Bruce Hall or not, getting Braylon Allen, what's his ADP? I think it's in the double digits. Love that. Don't mind. start in the year with that guy on my bench. Here's a question. Oh, sorry. Go ahead. I would just say a couple of things. One, like he didn't play very much because I think he

came out when Justin Fields and Garrett Wilson did, which is encouraging, in my opinion. Two, if we're going to believe the coaching staff in terms of how they're going to use a lot of running backs, I think we should also believe the coaching staff when they keep saying over and over and over again that he's going to have a huge rule in the passing game. Yes. And they've done that. There's an article this morning. That I read about it. Five snaps, three runs.

Solid speed, no burst is what I wrote in my notes, along with missed a gigantic lane. And I just wouldn't, like for a guy that we've seen in the NFL for three years now, I wouldn't make too many skill assessments based on three. On three carries. Hell yeah. Of course not. No, but he hasn't been a very good rusher two straight years.

And one of them, he was coming off at Torn ACL. According to next-gen stats, Brees Hall's rush yards over-expected per attempt has dropped from 1.4 to 0.7 to 0.4. That's from ESPN via next-gen stats. He needs to be better. I don't know that he needs to get back to what he was in 2022, 5.8 yards per carry.

If he can get to 4.5 in 2023, that's great. Last year was 4.2, but he is not played as well as what we saw in 2022. I do think that you just highlighted. I would agree he has to run better than he did last year. that rush yard's over expectation expected is one of the least sticky stats and you just showed it year to year for running backs it's not predictive of fantasy points it does a great job of telling us how guys ran last year but it does not do a very good job of telling us how they're going to run in the following year all right next bust is another jamie call but i think we might have might have some agreement here it's patrick mahomes not necessarily as kb6 but 48th overall um jamie and i were talking last last night during the draft that we really like Patrick Mahomes in round six.

And I said, you know, he's been around QB 11 per game, two straight years. If you get him in round six and he delivers that, that's not that bad. I mean, you're going to be disappointed, but it's not so bad if that's his floor. And then obviously they want to get more explosive, throw the ball downfield. Obviously, we know his ceiling is the best player in football. But Jamie says 48th is too early for Patrick Mahomes. That's the four-five turn. Dave and Heath, Heath, I'll go to you first.

Do you agree or disagree with Mahomes that is a bust at 48th? I mean, I think that the first and easiest thing to say is I agree with Jamie that I'm not taking Patrick Mahomes at pick 48. I'm also not taking Baker-Raefield at pick 59 or Bo Nix at pick 72 or Kyler Murray at pick 81. Like almost every quarterback in that range is being drafted higher. Now, Dak would be the exception. He's at 83. It's almost easier if you're looking at our QB ADP to find like who are the four guys that you think are not being drafted. a round and a half before they should be.

By the way, the CBS ADP and the Fantasy Pro's ADP are very similar with the quarterbacks that you just mentioned, with Mahomes, Baker, Bo, Knicks, Kyler Murray. So it's not just a CBS thing. All right. When do you, in terms of your overall rankings, guys, you have Patch of Mahomes where? Around behind ADP. So five, six turn. Yep. Jamie?

In the 60s, so in Toronto, anything you want to add? I think just the one thing that's interesting. You know, he talked about how all the arrows are going up for the quarterbacks. The arrows continuing to stay up for Patrick Mahomes while the arrow for Rashi Rice is going down. So people are obviously running away from Rashi Rice, but still drafting Mahomes as if Rice is going to be there.

At least that's the way it feels. All right. Let's take a, do we take a second break? No. Well, then we're long overdue for that. Let's take a second break. Yeah. Go ahead.

No, no, no, go ahead. I was just going to say, like, in relation to the quarterback ADP we've been talking about, I've said several times on the show that Jared Goff is one of the best picks in fantasy if the rest of the lions are okay at ADP, that has quickly deteriorated. And he's up 23 spots since the last update, and he's now a round eight pick. Yeah, it was another one that I thought of also, but not in round eight. All right, let's take another break. Here we go.

We'll come back and talk about DJ Moore. Joe Mixin, Sam Laporta, Zayflowers after this. Let's talk about the biggest mystery in fantasy. DJ Moore, never know what to expect from this guy. This is where he's finished per game in full PPR in his last six seasons. 14th, 26, 26, 36, 9th, and 27th. That is outside the top 24 in four of his last six seasons and five of seven seasons overall.

He is going as wide receiver 22 in CBS, 54th overall. He's actually going DJ Moore 48th overall on Fantasy Pro's. consensus, wide receiver 20. So, Jamie, you have him as a bust 54th overall and a wide receiver 22. I'm just concerned about this Bears' offense and the passing game. You alluded to this how Caleb Williams is performing. And if he's not going to be the slot receiver, which it doesn't appear like he's going to be the primary slot receiver, then will he be able to survive with Caleb Williams spreading

the ball around with the addition of Luther Burden, with the addition of Colston Lovell and with obviously a better run. game, whatever you think of DeAndre Swift is going to be better than what it was a year ago, just because of the offensive line and the coaching staff. So can DJ Moore continue to produce at a high enough level or exceed the level that he was at last year? And clearly there were two different versions of DJ Moore. There was the beginning part of the season, then there was a coaching change and how that sort of unfolded for him. Maybe, you know, putting him in the backfield and getting some manufacturer touches different ways will help. But I'm just, it was more like just looking at some of the receivers

going behind him. And you see the list on our site. here based on ADP, I would rather have Cortland Sutton. I'd rather have at this point, George Pickens, depending on the situation of the Rashi Rice, I'm going to take him over him clearly, but just put Chiefs receiver ahead of him. I'd rather have McMillan ahead of him. I'd rather have at this point Travis Hunter ahead of him because I think there's more upside.

So it's just starting to move DJ Moore down and further back and he's now in the wide receiver three territory for me. So I'm just not taking him as the 22nd receiver off the board, and I think that ADP is a little bit too high. Are we good? Or anyone want to chime in, DJ Moore?

I've pretty much got him where he's being drafted. I understand the concerns about the offense, and I think the bigger concern for me is the pecking order. The last six seasons of DJ Moore's career, his team has ranked 28th, 18th, 20th, 29th, 24th, and scoring. He's never been on a league average offense except for his rookie year. So I think he's a low end wide receiver too. And if you decide you're going to move Luther Byrd and way up your rankings because he has had some positive reports recently, then DJ Moore false.

I want everybody to think of the number of targets per game they expect from DJ Moore. And so if you think he's going to be like the number one guy in Chicago, start at seven and work your way up. If you'd think he's not going to be that, you start at seven and you work your way down. you got your number in your head good in 2023 with fields he averaged 8.2 targets per game that really helped him put up some nice fantasy numbers as it did last year once shame waldron was out of there eight games 9.3 targets per game his a dot was 5.7 he averaged 17.3 ppr points per game I think he's the easy solution for Caleb Williams to just throw a bunch of short passes let DJ Moore make a play after the catch and let O'Donzee and Burden run a little bit further

downfield. Let Loveland run over the seam and let DJ Moore be the steady hand and the guy that Caleb Williams can lean on. It sounds great coming out of my mouth. I don't know if that's what the bears are actually going to do, but, and I don't know if Caleb is even going to be able to, like, register all that and then be able to throw effectively and on time because that's been an issue. So for now, he's in the wide receiver two range, low end wide receiver two range. The more I get excited about McMillan, once we know about Rice's suspension, Jamie's right about that. He's going to be easy to add. He really should be in that range of Pickens, Jameson. Terry's going to move ahead of him. Terry McLaurin's going to move ahead of him if McLaren

signs really soon. That puts him right in that, you know, high end wide receiver three range. But if he's going to get a bunch of short area targets, I think he can pay. off at that value. So 50th overall is when I'd say green light on DJ Moore. I think all three bears wide receivers and Colston Loveland probably are just kind of lottery tickets and Moore is the most proven and you decide which one you want to place the like take that risk. So the problem is when's the last time you felt good about buying a lottery ticket at 50th overall? That's probably exactly right. He's the most expensive. So if you're going to take pieces of this offense, you got to commit to him much sooner than the other three guys.

Yeah, and nobody's... I do think he's the best one. Does anybody draft Caleb Williams ever? He's going 120th. Not anymore. No. I haven't. I drafted him a couple of times.

120th is a little high, but he never goes that high in our drafts. All right, we got a controversial one next. Joe Mixon. All three of you, so controversial. All three of you agree. Joe Mixon is a bust at 58 overall. RB 23. On fantasy pros, Joe Mixen is 65th overall, and he's RB 24.

If he's a bust at 58, fine. Is Joe Mixen a bust at 65 in round six? He is today. He might be a bust anywhere. Like, until he gets healthy, it just keeps going down because he's got to get healthy. We haven't heard anything. We did. I mean, we haven't heard anything recently, but we heard he's a chance he's ready for week one.

But not since the initial injury popped up and D'Amico Ryan's got defensive about it like that was july 26th yeah today damien pierce is back at practice by the way splitting reps first team reps with nick chubb all right what a dream team when are you well that's the thing like mixon's gonna gonna walk in and be the best guy you know so he was so good last year so when would you guys take he walk is that confirmed when would you take him he's gonna scooter in when would you take uh where would i take joe mixon he's in the 70s for me 75th overall, wow. Okay.

Yeah, he's around 75 for me as well. We all agree on this one. Can I rewind for a second on the Bears one? Because Thomas put something in the chat that I thought was really interesting, and it's a good point. Caleb Williams' total pass yard prop is 3,600 yards, 3625. These are all pretty much lower than if they play 17 games, pretty much universally, if you go through anybody's

projections and the props, the projections higher because they have to factor in some risk, the guy misses some time. That's 400 yards higher than Drake Mace. Wow. That's 300 yards higher than Kyler Murray's.

150 yards higher than Jordan Love. Wow. For reference, how many yards did he throw for last year? I have it if you don't Well, just go ahead and say it 3,541 yards In 17 games

So this is saying that he would like That's probably more Generally you can guess it's Two game average of expected miss So they expect if he plays 17 games He's going to be at 4,000 I think Could I say something completely preposterous No

If the bears stink Do they possibly turn to Tyson Bayon? that's we're not planning only if he's if he stinks like he's got to be pick six across the board every week let's go to our next bust here yeah that's okay i'm just saying all right sam la porta is a dave and heath bust at 59th overall tight end four he's 53rd overall in tight end four on fantasy pros sam la porta heath why is that a bus pick late round five i mean i've done the same lion stick all year long but mostly

It's just like, Monroe St. Brown's a top 5, 10 wide receiver. Jemir Gibbs is going to play wide receiver more and catch more passes. Isaac Tesla is demanding a role in the offense. Jameson Williams is going to have his biggest role ever. And Sam LaForda had 83 targets last year. Okay. How many did he have in his last six games?

What was his average in those last six games? I'm sure it was. Yeah. I'm sure. I felt like there was a health issue that slowed him. down earlier in the year. I just feel like not only are these other mouths to feed, but there's just been so much more buzz about the receivers and Gibbs.

You saw Montgomery there as a red zone weapon. I just, I have a hard time believing that LaPorta can have the same type of role and like consistency with those other players there. To me, he's in round six. Leporta was on pace for 130 targets in his last six games. In those six games, Jared Gough averaged 40 passes per game, and golf was on pace for 5,553 yards, 453 touchdowns. That sounds reasonable. Yeah, so, but it is worth noting that Sam Leporta had a 20% target share in the last six games, and he had the most end zone targets on the team, and Jameson Williams had a 17.4% target share in those last six games, and he had five fewer red zone targets and two fewer green zone targets and two fewer end zone targets than Sam Laplace.

Leporta. So Leporta was out targeting Williams down the stretch. Was it a health issue? Maybe early. I don't know if we can say it was a health issue for the first 10 or 11 games, 10 games for Leporta. But he did pick it up. They all picked it up down the stretch.

All right. Next bust on the list is, why don't we stick a tight end and we'll go to Travis Kelsey? So if Loporta is going 59th and that's too early, Kelsey's going 67th. Dave, you say that's too early. Jamie, do you agree with that Kelsey? Do you agree with this bus call of Kelsey?

at 67th, tight-in five? I take out Andrews of this group, and I look at Leporta, Kelsey, Hawkinson, and Njoku, and whatever order you like them, they're going to be the mid-range tight-ends. And so it's just a matter of at what point in the draft, you know, Dave says it's about quarterbacks.

I think the same thing with these tight ends. Like, if you don't like the other players on the board and you need to fill that position and you think that these guys have top five upside, look, Kelsey's going to have to do a lot of historic things. He's going to have the most receptions that are a tight end at this age. He did it last year.

Can you do it again? He's going to have to overcome the pitfalls of last season. There's still a lot to like about him, losing weight, getting in better shape, came back down to South Florida, worked out with the guy last, well, was it, 2021 Adam, when he had his last down season and bounced back in 2020. Down season, not like last year, but yeah. It was the same thing. He came back to where he was the most, you know, comfortable.

And there's a whole article in GQ about it, talking about the trainer that he works out with and Tony Volani. I think just the If you think he's the fourth or fifth best tight end This is the range you have to take him So do I like the ADP? No Do I think he's a bus in this range

If we're going to say that I think I say it about all of them To be honest with you So this is where I think you just have to sort of pull the trigger on it I don't hate it no But not Njoku right Where's Njoku going isn't he You can get Nogoku later and I like the joke

Oh I guess it's probably our site Because of where we haven't ranked And probably projected 83rd now You don't see that anywhere else 83rd for Nojoku on CBS 90th for Nojoku on fantasy pros behind Evan Ingram on fantasy pros I got to say look I didn't want to bring this up but you brought up Travis Kelsey and I just feel like I have to say it I would call Happy Gilmore to a bust and Travis Kelsey did not help

at that regard yeah I enjoyed you expect to expect like it's exactly it was a late round pick It was a late-round pick and performed like a late-round pick. So I guess it wasn't like it's one of those things where there's nostalgia to it. And so I didn't expect it to be a good movie. I thought it was entertaining for a few hours. Perfect. Yeah, exactly. It was entertaining for 30 minutes.

I don't know why we would start evaluating Adam Sandler movies. Like we're trying to choose who's going to win awards or something. Like just sit down and watch the movie laugh a few times and you're done. Just the fact that it wasn't a complete disaster made it a huge win. But even if it was a complete disaster. Like, I mean, you know, you got to see... Yeah, if I'm sitting there for two hours and I don't laugh one time, that's a complete disaster. I laughed a bunch.

I didn't laugh that much. I don't know. Orne Lundquist stole the show. I didn't find that funny. Okay, I really felt like it could have been a better movie. I really felt like it could have given a better movie if they had funny actors in it instead of celebrities making cameos. Like, Post Malone just wasn't funny. That could have been a funny role.

Travis Kelsey wasn't funny. That could have been a funny role. I'm sorry to say. He should have. You didn't laugh at Eminem. No, I thought Eminem was horrible. I hated that. I hated that.

Oh, that was hilarious. It could have been, but they should have had an actor do it. It was ridiculous. All right, Zay Flowers. He's an actor. Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews. I mean, that is a good point. I didn't see eight miles, but apparently he was good in that.

Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews are both on this place. You have to eight mile? No, I know, no, I'd like to. To be fair, it was, like, the role he was born to play. That's very true. Flowers is going 66th overall as wide receiver 25. He's 60th on Fantasy Pros as wide receiver 26. But what's called Zay Flowers a round six pick.

And if you listen to Wide Receivers Preview Part 2, this was a guy we were doing the draft o meter, and he was pretty low on, you know, being excited to draft him in round six. And then Mark Andrews, 77th overall is tight end six. All of you have Andrews as a bust there. So I think if we focus on flowers here, I made the case that he had the same amount of targets per game, basically as Devante Smith. The difference was Smith was on pace for 10 touchdowns.

Flowers was on pace for, well, flowers had four. Which is weird, because what did the Ravens through like 17 more touchdowns than the Eagles, something like that? But I don't know. I mean, Jacob loves Zayflowers. And the metrics are really good. Is it just touchdowns that hold him back

as a mid-round six pick, Heath? Pretty much. I mean, I've got, I'm probably the wrong guy to ask because I don't have Zayflowers a bus, and I've got him in the end of round six. So I think he's pretty appropriately valued. If he happens to have, like, I don't think the touchdowns are super predictive year over year, especially at this stage of his career. So if he has a James Cook season, you mean one of the best picks in fantasy. All right. I wrote a whole thing on why you shouldn't reach for Zay Flowers. And it starts with the fact that. that the Ravens are one of the most run-heavy offenses, and they've consistently been that, obviously, with Lamar Jackson at quarterback.

Listen to this. In the last decade, only four qualifying wide receivers, 50-plus targets in the season, have finished top 12 in PPR points per game, on teams that threw 31 or fewer passes per game. Only 18 wide receivers, less than two per year, have finished top 24 in PPR points per game on teams with that same low pass rate.

Yeah. this is so volume is a problem for zayflowers and then you know what the ravens are doing when they get inside the five but here's the thing volume is the problem but he had 120 targets last year you can be a top 24 receiver with 120 targets if you're as good as zay flowers was zay flowers the top 24 receiver last year caught four touchdowns on 41 touchdowns a great player on a team that's not going to feature him to the level he needs to get featured there you go finish up and then they add d'andre hopkins so that's another guy that can steal some touchdowns touchdowns away from zay let's finish up with three who's the worst addition to a good player is it deandre hopkins to zay flowers keenan allen to lad mcconkey or cooper cup to jason cooper hopkins for sure i mean worse in terms of hurting the player oh yeah worse worse in terms of hurting the player is the way i was going right i would go with the chargers there just by a little cup for me heath what's your answer i don't understand the question still which which one hurts the star player the most cup keenan allen or hopkins i i think cup by a by a pretty wide margin

and they're all 32 or 33 by the way all we have three more real quick um or devante tapuka brian robinson junior yeah i thought you might go there brian robinson junior 74th overall as rb 27th overall as rb 28 chris godwin 77th overall as wide receiver 32 so bryan robinson jr, 74th, Caleb Johnson, 75th, Chris Godwin, 77th. All of you have, at least two of you, have all these guys as going too

early. Brian Robinson, Jr., Caleb Johnson, Chris Godwin. Jamie, final thoughts? I think you bring up this a little bit, or you brought this up a little bit ago, about not hearing about veterans, and sometimes is that a bad thing? Like, we have not heard one

thing about Brian Robinson, Jr. Not one. Like, Jacori Kroski Merritt is looking great and all these things. And we just spent some time talking about how the passing game could be a problem for the commanders if there is no Terry McCorn. I wonder if Brian Robinson gets a little bit of a bigger role. I don't really hate him in this spot. He's going sooner than I would draft him, but I don't hate him in this range. He just feels like a settle for a guy that could be more of a flex than a number two running back.

But I just don't hate it, especially like the, you know, not to reference that draft that we did last night as the end all be all. But when all these running back starts to go early, you're going to need some mid-range targets. And I just don't think he's horrible there. And the same thing with Caleb Johnson. Like I dropped him. I think we all did. He's RB 30. Like to say he's being drafted at RB28 for a still rookie that's going to be on a team that's probably going to run the ball.

Like, I don't hate that either. Godman's the only one really that I can't really buy at this point just because I'm nervous with the injury. So I don't hate the running back value. Again, sooner than I want to take them. But it just feels like these are the range of where these guys are going to go. The less catches count for, the more I like Brian Robinson. There was a 1.4 fantasy point difference in his per game averages from non-PPR to full PPR. But what are you doing the games last year when Eckler wasn't there?

He was good, but I don't know if he caught a ton of passes in those games. He might have. For some reason, I think he might have had like decent receiving production. Listen, he's very uninspiring. But that's why you settle for him. When those two guys were on the field or were healthy for, games, there just was not a big enough difference in their PPR scoring for Robinson to be drafted here and ask Echler to just never be talked about. They were like a point apart.

And that's fair too. Like nobody's saying a word about Echler either. It's really true as if they're locked into their roles and, uh, Jacori is trying to steal it, you know, mostly Robinson you expect. But like, I don't know. I, I'd be surprised if it's not them starting the season with their normal workflow. Are you nervous, though, about saying that we shouldn't take Chris Godwin with a top 80 pick when he was the number three wide receiver per game last year? He's got the most hurdles in front of them of any of the, certainly of the three that we've talked about just now, but a lot of these guys, we don't know when he's coming back.

We don't know how effective he'll be when he's coming back. When he does come back, his receiving cores deeper than it was last year. his quarterback has already developed chemistry he's already had the chemistry of evans but now he's developed it more so with mcmillan and certainly with abuka there are a lot of problems with chris godwin and drafting him anywhere close to where you think well he might be that guy from last year man like i i can't do that i want to get him if i'm not getting him where do i i moved him behind a buca already he might be that no one's drafting him to be the guy he was last year when he's going 78th

He was the best pick of fantasy last year. I think there will be people that do take him a little bit sooner than even that. I would take the job last night, Adam, and round 10. Right. Oh, yeah, I love to that. I would dance around the room. Yeah, I don't, I mean, I wouldn't take him at 78, but I don't think, I think it's close enough to where I haven't ranked that I wouldn't. Jamie's a liar, though.

He went round nine. That's still good. Round eight is okay. We want to take the chance in round eight. Listen, they didn't have to cast actual golfers. They could have created fake golfers, fictitious golfers with funny actors. They didn't have, like Rory McElroy just didn't add anything to the movie. It was weird.

Why would you do that? What is a weird choice to go out? There's been basketball movies where they have basketball players. They're trying to make it more realistic. Kids movies have basketball players. I'm sorry. Scotty Schuffler was amazing. Fantastic.

Was he? Listen, he's not in a movie without trying to convince everybody else who was fine with it, that they should not like it also. Like, you didn't like the movie. That's fine. How they're his daughters. It's okay.

What did you say? His daughters can act. His daughters are great actors. Yeah, and his wife was in it too. I got to go to you. Come on, Jamie. This is important. All right, we got to talk to you all later.

What's I? Sorry. I just, I felt like it could have been good if they had casted differently. I think you've made your opinion known. I don't think so. It's just your opinion. So on the stream last night, he did say in regards to this because he took his buddies from softball to a restaurant and he said, I asked him, I said, do you ever get upset like

when you recommend something because he said he recommended some pizza at the restaurant? He's like, no, my, my recommendations are always great. And he referenced movies and music. Wait a sec. I said, I don't recommend bad movies. I said there are plenty of good. There's plenty of good music that I don't like. But everything I like, whether it's food, movies, music, everything I like is good.

Hit the button sheet. That's great. All right, we can head the show. We'll do a bonus podcast on Happy Gilmore 2. We'll see you later, everybody.