Fantasy Football Today - Busts! Thielen, Rodgers, Pitts and More (08/19 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 19, 2021

Bid on our Draft-A-Thon items right now to benefit St. Jude! http://cbssports.com/ebay A lot of disagreement on today's show as Dave and Heath present their 2021 busts. The guys start about by debatin...g Adam Thielen (2:10), Kyle Pitts (7:30) and Brandin Cooks (12:45). Should Cooks be a Top 100 pick? Does Thielen have more bust potential than any other Top 60 player? ... Yes it is a bust show, but we will also be optimists today and talk about some players who could reach new heights in 2021 (18:00). Then we've got your news and notes (21:45) including the latest on the Dolphins backfield and why Adam Trautman is moving down in the rankings. Oh, and we've got another Arnold Schwarzenegger Challenge with an audio submission this time (29:05)! ... Back to the busts, let's talk about which QBs are being drafted too early (30:45). We've got the 2020 NFL MVP and Rookie of the Year. Also Josh Jacobs (42:40), Leonard Fournette (47:40) and D.J. Chark (49:15) ... your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races. Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. He won the NFL MVP in 2020.
Starting point is 00:00:29 Now he's on a fantasy football bust list in 2021. Talking about Aaron Rodgers and other busts. It's all based on average draft position. These are players who are being drafted too early. We welcome you to the show. This is Fantasy Football Today. And today's episode is presented by Sonos Arc, the premium smart soundbar for TV, movies, music, gaming, and more.
Starting point is 00:00:49 Stay tuned for additional details about Sonos Arc later in today's show. Hey, Dave and Heath. Let's go to Heath first. Hey, Heath. Hey, Adam. What's up? It's so great to see you. I have been looking forward to this all day.
Starting point is 00:01:04 It feels like I've had to wait even longer than normal. And Dave, how's the new HQ podcast studio? It's great. Thanks for asking. Can we hurry this along? I've got preseason games to watch. Oh, God. Okay. Looking forward to that. All right. So we're going to start with
Starting point is 00:01:19 looking at some of the busts that you guys provided for me before the show. Heath has Josh Allen, Justin Herbert. It's all based on ADP, so we'll explain. We'll give context. Leonard Fournette, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Pitts. I should mention, just in case any of you out there aren't aware, ADP, I say it all the time, it's average draft position.
Starting point is 00:01:39 It's where these players are being drafted on average. Dave's busts, according to average draft position, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Jacobs, DJ Chark, Tyler Tyler Higbee and in all caps all Texans before round 10 so the first question is when I gave you those lists is there a bus that you disagree with Dave do you disagree with any of Heath's Josh Allen Justin Herbert Leonard Fournette, Adam Thielen, Kyle Pitts, and where they're going. I disagree with two of them. I disagree with, I agree with the premise of Allen and Herbert. I think there'll be good. I just wouldn't take them where they're getting drafted. I disagree with Thielen at 53 overall. I think that that's fine to take. I know he's a little
Starting point is 00:02:19 touchdown heavy from last year. There's no question about it, but he's typically a good receiver just in general and someone I wouldn't mind taking in round five. And the same thing with Kyle Pitts. We're at that point where if he's there and you need a tight end and you want that upside
Starting point is 00:02:32 and it's early round five, I can't falter for it. I don't think it's a bad pick. Oh my gosh, Heath. He picked two. That is so disrespectful. He disagreed with two of your busts, man.
Starting point is 00:02:42 I took my glove off and slapped Heath across the face. Ouch. All right, your response, Heath. What are other things that ADP could stand for? Like, you clarified that. I was thinking within the context of bust, there are some fun things that ADP could stand for,
Starting point is 00:02:56 but maybe people should email us their things that Adam thought ADP meant. ADP, awesomely delicious pizza. Awful, dreadful player for today's show. I was thinking a dumbass pick. That works too. That'll work. What was the question? Your response to... Which bus do you think I'm wrong
Starting point is 00:03:18 on? I think the all Texans before round 10 is the one I probably – No, wait, wait. Dave, this is why you're not the host. That's not what I wanted Heath to respond to. I wanted Heath to respond to your calling out of the Adam Thielen and Kyle Pitts bus.
Starting point is 00:03:39 He'll do that later. He'll do that when we talk about the bus later. He'll do that right now. Everyone who was listening could tell that Dave's heart was not in either of those. He was just trying to come up with one to disagree with because you asked him to, and he is a good analyst. No, no, I'm not.
Starting point is 00:03:56 He's not taking Kyle Pitts at pick 51. He agrees that he shouldn't be taken there. He doesn't think that Adam Thielen's wide receiver 19, he agrees with these things. He was just trying to help you with your job. And now you made me expose him. I've got Pitts 56th overall in my PPR rankings. I do have Thielen as my number 21 wide receiver. So he got me there.
Starting point is 00:04:20 Yeah, barely. Right. So explain those bus picks, Heath. Thielen, 53rd overall. Kyle Pitts, 51, right. So explain those bus picks, Heath. Thielen, 53rd overall. Kyle Pitts, 51st overall. Adam Thielen, had he scored last year at his career touchdown rate, was basically Cole Beasley.
Starting point is 00:04:38 And I don't think we should expect him to score at a rate double of his career rate in 2021. I think there is some risk that the Vikings throw less because their past attempts went up 50 last year and their defense was awful and now their defense is going to presumably be better. I think there's a bigger risk that Justin Jefferson takes a larger share of the targets this year than he did last year, which leaves Thielen with even fewer targets than he did last year, which leaves Thielen with even fewer targets than he had last year. Yeah. He was on pace, 16 game pace was 987 yards. It's really not that good. And Dave, you mentioned he's a pretty good receiver, but he's had really most of his games,
Starting point is 00:05:20 he's less than 60 yards over the last two years. So, I mean, isn't that kind of something that you look at and see a player in decline? I'll just throw this out there, right? I'll be bold and see and let you guys react to this. Of all the players being drafted in the first five rounds, aside from running backs, because, you know, they're weird, the player that I think could just be one of the worst picks in fantasy,
Starting point is 00:05:45 droppable midway through the season. Adam Thielen has got to be close to the top of the list. I don't see it that way. I think he's still a fantastic route runner. He was clearly a red zone threat for them. The better that Justin Jefferson does, the more likely he'll be in single coverage. I think Cousins loves him,
Starting point is 00:06:04 and I think he can be a very useful number two fantasy receiver. Completely see it differently than you guys do. That is a fun game, Adam. Of all the players inside the top 60, who's the one most likely to be droppable by midseason? And like as much as I like them, the two guys going after Thielen have to be in the discussion, Mike Davis and Myles Gaskin. Yeah,
Starting point is 00:06:28 right. I mean, those running backs could lose their roles. But barring injury, I think there's every bit as much risk for Thielen as there is for those two because of the things that I said. His role just wasn't that big. There has not been room for two wide receivers at the same time since Mike Zimmer basically. I know we've had different offensive coordinators every year. Mike Zimmer is calling the shots on how many times they're going to run and pass quite obviously.
Starting point is 00:06:54 And there's not enough targets. Oh, that's a great way. Let's let's explore that because didn't digs. I thought Diggs and Thielen both had a year where they finished top 12. That was back. That was back when John. I think that was back when John DeFilippo was calling 600 pass plays and Mike Zimmer was getting mad at him and he got fired. You fired him for it.
Starting point is 00:07:11 Yeah, it's true. And obviously, both Jefferson and Thielen were top 10 wide receivers, but that's because of the touchdown rate. Right. Okay. All right. Well, Dave Light, all right. I think that's a good discussion there.
Starting point is 00:07:22 How about Kyle Pitts at 51st overall? So that's right after Mark Andrews How about Kyle Pitts at 51st overall? So that's right after Mark Andrews. It's before TJ Hawkinson. It's about 15 picks before TJ Hawkinson. You can't even get on board with him being a round five pick? I hate doing this. The Adam Thiel one I can get enthusiastic about.
Starting point is 00:07:48 Kyle Pitts is a very special athlete. I am always going to call a player a bust candidate if they have to have the best season ever for a player of their type to justify the ADP. And that's what he has to do for you to break even, is to be the best rookie tight end ever. Okay, I understand. That's all it is. I think Kyle Pitts is awesome. I think he's probably going to be very awesome.
Starting point is 00:08:17 I took him in a couple of dynasty leagues just because I knew this would happen and I wouldn't be able to get him in redraft. I just don't want to draft a player who has to be the best rookie at his position ever just to break even. How would you feel if he ended the season with 81 targets? Like I would throw up in my mouth. Yeah, I just did. That would be a letdown, right?
Starting point is 00:08:35 I just did. It would be disgusting. What about 94 targets? No. Probably not worth it. Are you still throwing up in your mouth? It's less so. He might score a bunch of touchdowns. I might get lucky. No, I have gas pains, but I'm not throwing up in your mouth? It's less so. He might score a bunch of touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:08:45 I might get lucky. No, I have gas pains, but I'm not throwing up in my mouth. Okay, and then the third number I'll throw at you is 109. What if he ended up with 109 targets? Now we're talking. In 17 games, yeah. Now you're not throwing up anymore. Now you're feeling pretty darn good.
Starting point is 00:08:59 No, I would say at 109 targets, we've reached the point where he might be worth a fifth-round pick. Is that what Mark Andrews, would you think Mark Andrews is going to be at 109 targets, we've reached the point where he might be worth a fifth round pick. Well, is that what Mark Andrews, would you think Mark Andrews is going to be around 109 targets? Seems reasonable. Is that a question for me or for Andrews fan number one? I don't know if he'll get to 109 because eventually the other receivers in Baltimore will get healthy.
Starting point is 00:09:20 Man. Checking the projections. Good grief. Nothing makes my blood boil more than this idea that Mark Andrews needs all of these receivers that have not done anything close to what he does to be hurt for him to lead his team in targets. No, we didn't say that. I think he actually needs them on the field to be useful. He doesn't need anything.
Starting point is 00:09:45 He's an elite tight end. He's a very good tight end. Okay, anyway. The numbers that I threw at you. No, let me just finish this point. 109, yeah. The last five years in Atlanta, the number two most targeted player,
Starting point is 00:09:57 81 targets in 2016, 96, 94, 97. That's 27 through 2019. And then last year, Russell Gage, number two in targets in Atlanta's passing game with 109. So no one's been above 109 as the number two target gather in the Falcons offense in the last five years. What? Really?
Starting point is 00:10:14 So 20 years ago? 2019 Ridley and Julio? Look it up in 2019. Okay. I will. I've got it right here, Adam. I'm seconds away from this information. 2019. Ridley missed three games, I think.
Starting point is 00:10:34 He did. Ridley missed three games that year. Yeah, Ridley only had 93. Hooper had 97. So it's a little bit of a tainted deal. But I think you kind of get the idea that if you're expecting pits to get 115, 125 targets over 17 games really hasn't been a track record of a guy
Starting point is 00:10:55 getting that as the number two option in the Atlanta offense. That's terrific, man. I mean, I don't know if that is going to hold true, but that's a great stat, Dave. I'm going to find the applause. It would be better if the coaches were the same,
Starting point is 00:11:09 but I agree. Yeah, wait, hold on. Hey, all right, Dave. I'm glad you like it. They also have a tough schedule to begin the year. In the projected strength of schedules that I did, it's the sixth worst for tight ends. But the funny thing is you said you're okay with Pitts there,
Starting point is 00:11:23 and he doesn't. I'm okay with it. If you want to take the chance on Pitts and. But the funny thing is, you said you're okay with Pitts there, and he doesn't. I'm okay with, if you want to take the chance on Pitts and you want the upside play, that's the kind of move that you make. That's when you have
Starting point is 00:11:31 to get Kyle Pitts, to be honest. I hated it in round four. Early round five, okay, I get it. Yeah, okay. So listen, hold on one sec.
Starting point is 00:11:41 Draft prepping for charity month, supporting St. Jude is well underway. Throughout the month, we're going to have various eBay auctions supporting St. Jude, culminating in our draft-a-thon event on September 1st. And we've added a beer with Heath over Zoom. Fun.
Starting point is 00:11:54 A spot in the 2021 Fantasy Football Today Podcast League and a custom-designed fantasy team logo. Go to cbssports.com slash eBay to donate and bid CBS Sports dot com slash eBay in the interest of moving this along so we can talk about the other busts. Heath, do you disagree with any of Dave's picks? Aaron Rogers 37th overall as QB six
Starting point is 00:12:15 J. Josh Jacobs RB 19 41st overall DJ Chark 81st overall Tyler Higbee 105th and all Texans drafted before round 10 I'm not sure that you can be a bust with an
Starting point is 00:12:30 ADP of 105 I might just disagree with that in theory although one of mine might have a 105 ADP now that I think about it no the only one I would really say I disagree with is the no Texans before round 10 I think Brandon Cooks has done enough throughout his career that he no Texans before round 10. I think Brandon Cooks has done enough
Starting point is 00:12:45 throughout his career that he should be drafted before round 10. I think even if it's him and Terod Taylor for 17 games, he's going to be worth more than round 10. The problem is that it won't be him and Terod Taylor for more than 17 games. They will eventually hand things over to Davis Mills, who makes me nervous. And when Brandon Cooks was doing that whole boomer bus thing for like four straight years, it was Drew Brees. It was Tom Brady. He got to LA. He worked with Jared Goff for a while.
Starting point is 00:13:13 I'm not Sean Watson. Yeah, well, I can't put Terod Taylor in that same category by any stretch. In terms of good, that's one thing. But in terms of passing yards, much more prolific of a passer than Tyrod Taylor ever has been. It's tough to look at Brandon Cooks
Starting point is 00:13:33 and use his career to make a statement about what you expect this year. He's just never been in a situation like this. In terms of a guy, you just figure he's going to get peppered with targets on arguably the worst team in football. They're going to have to throw,
Starting point is 00:13:49 and he's so much better than everyone else on the team. You don't think, Dave, that he could be worth a top 100 pick? No. Certainly going in the top 100. Yeah. I don't know if I've taken him even once. I think the difficulty is, because you mentioned, Adam,
Starting point is 00:14:05 that Rod Taylor is not a very prolific passer. I don't think he's ever thrown more than 470 passes. The Texans are so bad. I would presume they're going to throw 600 passes this year, or 550 at least. Let's do some comparisons. Would you rather have Brandon Cooks or Will Fuller? Will Fuller.
Starting point is 00:14:25 Yeah, Cooks for sure. Brandon Cooks or? Jalen Waddle. Jalen Waddle. Cooks. Brandon Cooks or? Marvin Jones. LaVisca Chenault.
Starting point is 00:14:40 Chenault. Cooks. Brandon Cooks or Devante Smith? Smith. Okay, that's wheres or Devante Smith? Smith. Okay, that's where Heath and I are going to fight. Let's do one more. Go ahead. No, you've got to say your part.
Starting point is 00:14:54 Brandon Cooks or? Olamide Zaccheaus. I'm looking at the five worst. That's a joke. I'll take Cooks then. The five worst passing offenses in football last year in terms of yards. And I think you could argue there was not one good fantasy receiver on the teams.
Starting point is 00:15:12 Marquise Brown had a stretch. Ravens, Jets, Patriots, Giants, Eagles. That's bad. Right. The Ravens and the Patriots are probably a bad comp because they're probably not going to run the ball 600 times in houston or 550 or whatever um yeah i mean they might they might be that bad but in 2019 the no this cannot be right what this can't be right
Starting point is 00:15:42 no no this is right. This is right. I forgot that Roethlisberger got hurt. The Steelers were 31st in passing. The worst passing team in the NFL in 2019 was Washington. And Terry McLaurin was absolutely fantasy relevant. T.Y. Hilton was okay. Jets, Broncos.
Starting point is 00:16:01 Yeah, Cortland Sutton was. He was on the fifth worst passing team. Okay, let's move on here. We got some news and notes to get to. We got a lot more busts to talk about. I'm going to tell you about Sonos in just a moment. We also have another fun Arnold Schwarzenegger segment, this time with an audio entry
Starting point is 00:16:20 where someone did a great Arnold impression, and you're going to have to tell us what movie it's from. Right now, though, I want to talk about the Sonos Arc. Every single day, I am amazed at the sound quality of the Sonos Arc. Have you gone to Sonos.com yet? Please check it out, S-O-N-O-S.com, and just check out the products. Now, I've got the Arc, but I know a lot of people have different Sonos products, and they just sound incredible. Listening to music on a Sonos speaker outside at my cousin's house a couple months ago, I was like, this is amazing. And he said, oh, it's a Sonos. I was like, oh, I just got one of those. And then we had a great conversation about how much we love our product.
Starting point is 00:16:54 But anyway, it is amazing, and it has changed my TV viewing and my music listening to the point where I don't want to watch TV unless I'm in the family room with the Sonos ARC. That's how good it is. Arc was designed from the inside out for incredibly clear sound and rich bass and then fine-tuned by Oscar and Grammy winning producers, mixers, and artists. TruePlay tuning software further enhances your listening experience by optimizing Arc sound for the unique acoustics of the room. And they also have these cool features on the app. They have the speech enhancement mode while you're watching TV and movies to clarify the sound of the human voice. So if a character whispers or the action intensifies,
Starting point is 00:17:31 that's the speech enhancement mode. They have the night sound, which tones down the loud effects when maybe you got kids sleeping or somebody like that, or maybe you're like me and your wife falls asleep every time you watch TV together. You turn on the night sound and the really loud parts don't wake anybody up.
Starting point is 00:17:46 So there's a lot of great reasons to get this, but the bottom line is it's just a better viewing and listening experience. Please go to Sonos.com to learn more. S-O-N-O-S.com, learn more. And I know this is a bust show, guys, but our Sonos segment today, Raising the Bar. We are looking at players
Starting point is 00:18:05 who have the potential to raise their game to the next level. And I don't know if you want to play on some of the latest injury news. Chase Claypool, maybe that, you know,
Starting point is 00:18:14 it's a minor injury. Maybe that opens the door for Juju Smith-Schuster. Maybe you want to go back to your sleepers or your breakouts, but give me some players who could raise the bar, raise their game
Starting point is 00:18:22 to the next level. Heath, you got one? Yeah. On a bus show. I know. I apologize for throwing you off. Right on time. Yeah. I think that a guy who could raise his game to the next level is Calvin Ridley opposite one of my busts, Kyle Pitts. Calvin Ridley could be a top three or maybe even the very best fantasy wide receiver. We could see a high volume A.J. Brown impersonation. And Ridley's already been awesome.
Starting point is 00:18:57 He was 20.1 PPR points per game in seven without Julio Jones last year. 20.1. Dave, I'm going to give you a challenge. And I'm going to tell you, I'm going to give you1. Dave, I'm going to give you a challenge, and I'm going to tell you, I'm going to give you the challenge, and then I'm going to give you a Calvin Ridley stat to give you a little time to think about it. Sure.
Starting point is 00:19:10 How about a bust from last year that could raise the bar and raise their game to the next level? While you think about that, last year's bust that could bounce back. Sure. Jacob Gibbs said that when Julio Jones was not on the field, Calvin Ridley was targeted at a higher rate than any player other than Devontae Adams. So you've got the potential for a guy to be right up there
Starting point is 00:19:35 among the league leaders and targets. League leaders and air yards could have a huge season. Dave, did I give you enough time? I got somebody for you if you're interested. Clyde Edwards-Awards alera do we consider him a bust from last year one of the biggest yeah so i i liked what i saw from honestly i liked what i saw from his offensive line in the first preseason game the majority of his usage was as if he were an every down back the one crap all apart was that he had like three plays in a row on
Starting point is 00:20:01 the second drive but check that one two three four plays in a row on the second drive. Check that. One, two, three, four plays in a row on the second drive. And when they finally got to first and goal from the five, it was Darrell Williams in there instead of Clyde Edwards-Hilaire. I don't know if Edwards-Hilaire would be in there in a regular season game or if he would be in there if Williams had replaced him earlier on the drive and he came back in. But the offensive line in Kansas City, Heath, your front five, looked good. So I think that he's somebody that does have some decent bounce-back potential.
Starting point is 00:20:29 I just sure as hell wish that there was no issue in short-yardage situations. I think, so Schrager, write it down. Next week, probably Tuesday after we recap preseason week two on Monday, we got to do the most polarizing players. I think he's the headliner. Might be. You know, people really don't know how to feel, or, well, people do know how they feel
Starting point is 00:20:52 about Clyde Edwards either. He's tough for me, really tough. And I know Heath has a lot to say about that. So Tuesday, most polarizing players, or sometime next week. Already on the schedule for Wednesday. I love it. Oh, no way.
Starting point is 00:21:05 All right. Cool. Nice. Hey, do I get a player for... You just did. No, no. For the Sonos. You just did.
Starting point is 00:21:12 The guy who's going to step up. All right. The CH. But you know what? I love... Well, that's fine. I'll save my sleepers for later on in the summer. Okay.
Starting point is 00:21:18 People don't want to know who some late round targets are. Never mind. We should do a sleeper show. We should do a sleeper show two days ago. Yeah. Go ahead, Dave. Give meer show two days ago. Yeah. Go ahead, Dave. Give me a 30 seconds,
Starting point is 00:21:26 30 seconds. Go. Oh, me. Yeah. Sorry. I lost you there in my, in my earpiece.
Starting point is 00:21:34 No, I'm not going to do it. Okay. You're gonna have to wait till another podcast. You had your chance. Deshaun Watson update. That's the, we're starting off our news and notes segment with a Deshaun.
Starting point is 00:21:42 Do you want to hear who it was? Yes. I'll tell you another time. Okay. Does anybody have a Deshaun. Okay, do you want to hear who it was? Yes. I'll tell you another time. Okay. Does anybody have a Deshaun Watson update? Should we be drafting Deshaun Watson? He's off my top 200. I think he's been off Heath's for a while, right?
Starting point is 00:21:56 I think it was Chris that was not ranking him at all. Yeah, he's really close. If he's still on mine mine it's not by much right it's exactly at 200 right now right it sucks because everybody knows how talented he is when he's on the field but what's going on off the field is gross and he's not practicing he's not working as the first team guy for the texans that lets you know what the texans coaches think about his short-term future there. Even as like a round 15 pick, I think it's a waste. Okay.
Starting point is 00:22:32 Chase Claypool has a minor ankle injury. So have we... They say it's going to be fine. So have we just not done anything in the rankings here? No. No, not for me. All right. Brian Flores gave another update on the Dolphins running back situation. He said that the three running backs could be used situationally
Starting point is 00:22:47 while at the same time saying that Myles Gaskin could play all three downs. This made me feel better, actually, because he talked about how there are certain situations that are better for using each back. And I would agree that the preseason, when it doesn't count and you don't want anybody to get hurt, is the right situation to use Michael Malcolm Brown. So I think that they made a really good call.
Starting point is 00:23:08 And no, in all seriousness, this made me drop Gaskin from like 17 to 22 or 23, but I'm still taking him in round five. I just took Chase Edmonds over him. I don't like that. Yeah, I'm wondering if I made a mistake, but I understand I wasn't a huge Gaskin fan. Right.
Starting point is 00:23:25 Even before preseason week one. But it was not easy. I just, yeah, it wasn't easy. Dave, Chase Edmonds or Gaskin? I have Gaskin higher as of now. That's an easier decision in nine and a half than it is in full. How about Javante Williams or Gaskin? Still Gaskin.
Starting point is 00:23:43 Look, at some point, Brian Flores is going to have to watch the film of that preseason game and realize what the hell he's saying because Malcolm Brown was terrible. And the offensive line wasn't really great either. But you watch Malcolm Brown run
Starting point is 00:23:55 and it looks like you're watching an 18-wheeler backup. And you watch Myles Gaskin run and it looks like you're watching a Dodge Challenger go 50 miles an hour. It's an obvious difference between the two. So the sooner that Brian Flores actually opens up his eyes and goes to look at the players,
Starting point is 00:24:15 he'll realize that Gaskin is his guy. He'll be right back to playing over 60% of the snaps every week, no problem. Okay, the Eagles' waves carry on Johnson. The Bears have a situation at left tackle. They were hoping for their rookie Tevin Jenkins to be their left tackle, but he's not going to play for a long time. He has back injury here. Hopefully he can come back at some point this year. Tough break for Tevin Jenkins. They signed former Eagles offensive tackle Jason Peters
Starting point is 00:24:40 from this is just a little training camp blurb, a little note from ESPN's Ben Baby, who covers the Bengals. And he said, quote, don't look now, but Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is starting to find his groove. So you could be happy if you already drafted Burrow or if you like Burrow. That's a turn of the phrase is kind of weird. Like, I wish
Starting point is 00:25:00 he had told me to not look when Joe Burrow was doing bad. I would like to look at him doing good things. Oh, don't look. Don't look. Just take my word when Joe Burrow was doing bad. I would like to look at him doing good things. Oh, don't look. Don't look. Just take my word for it. He's doing great. How about Jawan Johnson? Saints tight end.
Starting point is 00:25:12 According to The Athletic, Jawan Johnson seems headed for a Jared Cook type role. What do you make of that, Dave? If you watch the first preseason game with the Saints and the Ravens, you saw Troutman doing a lot of blocking. He didn't play on any third downs. I think you guys talked about it earlier in the week.
Starting point is 00:25:27 If you didn't, now you're hearing about it. Johnson, who was a former receiver, looked pretty smooth when he was running downfield. Picked up a couple of big targets from Jameis. And Troutman, like, he still looks a little uncomfortable when he's running his routes. So I'm off the Trotman hype train i know that i was the captain of it maybe i'll be back eventually but since he's trotman you gotta
Starting point is 00:25:52 throw him back and that is trotman trout very good attack yeah and i would just like to add that without an an absolutely absurd touchdown rate, which credit to him, he was able to repeat two years in a row, the Jared Cook role is not one that we should be targeting for fantasy purposes at all. He averaged four targets per game last season. I didn't take it that literally, though. I took it as...
Starting point is 00:26:22 Well, but I mean, if he's putting that label on somebody in the saints offense and you recognize that it's not the name that you've been hearing for the last four months, I think that tells you something. I mean, I didn't, I didn't take it as a, he's going to get four targets a game and hopefully score.
Starting point is 00:26:39 I took it as this could be the tight end. Who's the most involved in the passing game. Right. But is that really what you think? I mean, is Juwan Johnson really going to be a better fantasy player than Adam Troutman? I don't know if I'm ready to say that yet. Let's see what kind of work he gets in the next two preseason games.
Starting point is 00:26:57 But my guess, and this could be wrong, because not like every tight end in Sean Payton's offense. I'm sure that if I scroll back long enough, I can find one that had more than 65 targets, but I'm at 2016. Jimmy Graham, buddy.
Starting point is 00:27:13 Um, right. That was a while ago. Why did you ever stay healthy enough to get 65 targets? Um, Kobe Fleener had 81 targets in 2016. That's still not good enough though. Of course not.
Starting point is 00:27:25 I think the most likely answer is it probably doesn't matter. I don't, but what if Michael Thomas is out? What if it at least matters while Michael Thomas is out? In my assumption, right. If Jameis Winston wins the job, then that might matter for a little bit, at least in terms of a guy that scores touchdowns. I just, it makes too much sense. As much as Sean Payton loves Taysom Hill hill when you don't have your number one wide receiver just put
Starting point is 00:27:50 in tasem hill and run the option for four weeks go three in one and get michael thomas back all right i listen the one other thing i need to see is need to say is that marquez calloway looked outstanding he did, he did. He's another reason why Troutman isn't somebody that you should take in a fantasy. I need your rankings here. Where's Troutman? Is he top 12 anymore? I think I've got him at 12 and he's probably going to be poised to fall
Starting point is 00:28:17 even farther than that. If he's not a top 100 player for me, he's 109 for me, Calloway. I think he's got staying power even after Michael me, he's 109 for me, Callaway. And I think he's got staying power even after Michael Thomas comes back. He looked that good. He's tall. He's lean.
Starting point is 00:28:30 He's fast. He ran his routes well. He had good timing with Taysom Hill. I think he could develop that with Jameis as well. I think he's got a really nice role coming in that offense. I feel like I got suckered into this whole Troutman thing, and then Dave and Jamie are going to drop him before I get a chance to, so I'm moving him right now. He
Starting point is 00:28:47 is right around 17th for me, and I don't have any of the Saints receivers other than Michael Thomas in my top 150. All right, and Seattle wide receiver Dwayne Eskridge is off the pup list, and now it is time for our Arnold Schwarzenegger challenge,
Starting point is 00:29:03 and we have actually an audio submission here. This doesn't mean we have to do pushups, does it? No, it doesn't. But I just want to make sure. Okay, this is from Jake. Just had to make sure I got the right name there. Okay, here you go, guys. You ready?
Starting point is 00:29:17 Here is your Arnold Schwarzenegger challenge for the day. Can you name the movie that this quote is from? I like you, Cindy. I'm going to be hanging around you a lot. Days, nights, weekends, holidays. I'm going to hang out with you until the end of time. I got it immediately. Borderline top five.
Starting point is 00:29:44 Did make some people's top five. It's a very good impression, isn't it? It's a great impression. It seems like it's probably from one of Arnold's lighthearted comedies. It's not Kindergarten Cop, is it? It's Kindergarten Cop! Is it? Yeah, all right.
Starting point is 00:29:59 Good job. Thank you, Jake. The mom's name was Cindy? No. Cindy was... Before he got into the kindergarten cop it was the introduction to arnold's character i think and it was somebody he was following in the mall or something like that um at the very beginning i don't really think it ended up being central to the plot at all so what's going to happen now is that people are going to like
Starting point is 00:30:20 bring up random quotes that schwarzenegger said in some of these movies and we've got a guest i don't know how much longer this segment's going to last. I'm happy I got one right because I'm terrible at all of these types of games and now I won't be the only person that didn't get one. It's funny that you consider it wasn't Kindergarten Cop, was it? That's right.
Starting point is 00:30:38 That's right. Alright, here we go. Back to the busts. So, Josh Allen, I mean, just seeing him going 16th overall is wild. And he's at QB2, and Herbert's at QB4, and he's going 34th overall. I think the important thing, because a lot of times we say, yeah, but that's not really happening. There's a big split in QB ADP.
Starting point is 00:31:05 Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott are going 48 and 49. That's pretty close to where I have them. Jalen Hurts, you can get back at pick 95. It's really just a couple. I don't think Lamar Jackson at 32 is awful. It's a little higher than I would take him. But Mahomes is at 10. Allen's at 16. Herbert's a little higher than I would take him. But Mahomes is at 10, Allen's at 16,
Starting point is 00:31:26 Herbert's at 34. I don't think it's that outlandish to think Josh Allen should be QB2. He's my QB3. But I don't think there's much justification for taking him 16 picks before Lamar Jackson or 33 picks before Dak Prescott. If you look at it just on a per game basis, Dak Prescott's basically been better than Josh Allen each of the last two years and definitely the last two years combined. I think it's a coin flip, which one of them is going to be better this year.
Starting point is 00:31:56 So, which as we've said many times, whoever is the last of that group of five or six quarterbacks that goes in round five, take that one. Right now it's Dak Prescott. It's definitely not Josh Allen. And this is not an anti-Josh Allen thing. We did the same thing with Patrick Mahomes in 2019. And you would be glad if you listened.
Starting point is 00:32:15 We did the same thing with Lamar Jackson last year, and you would be glad if you listened. Right, exactly. And I'm about to do it with Aaron Rodgers when we get to my bus. Yeah, and I just want to say, you know, we have talked about this concept of there's Mahomes, and then there's this group of
Starting point is 00:32:27 however many, you know, it's at least four, maybe it's five, maybe it's six quarterbacks in the next tier, but it's Jackson and it's Allen, Jackson, Kyler, Prescott for sure, and then maybe some people have Wilson or Herbert, whatever. And we say, try to take the last one. Now, look, you can't always do that,
Starting point is 00:32:43 but it seems that Josh Allen is just separated from the others. Josh Allen just appears to be in his own tier. So I guess it's like, wait, you know, because the reason why I say you can't always do that is, let's say two quarterbacks, Mahomes and Allen are off the board. And let's say you're in round four or something, or in our drafts, it'd be more like round five. But okay, I want one of these guys,
Starting point is 00:33:05 but they all might be gone by my next pick. Okay, well then, just pull the trigger and take Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray or Dak, whoever the heck you want, but try not to take Josh Allen
Starting point is 00:33:14 because it just seems like he's going at least around, if not more than that, earlier than the rest of the tier, and that doesn't really make any sense to us. What about Herbert? We don't really consider
Starting point is 00:33:23 Herbert part of this tier, and he's going ahead of Kyler Murray and more than around ahead of Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott. He doesn't have the rushing ability that these guys do. He ran for five touchdowns last year. That's probably a sign of regression, not a sign of something that you should expect happening in the future. And the other thing was a lot of his production was based on the fact that the Chargers ran like a hundred more plays than you would expect for a team to run in their situation. There's no reason to expect that to carry over because their entire coaching staff has changed. So there's going to be a reduction in volume.
Starting point is 00:33:54 The only nitpick I'll have, Heath, is that I think he does have a chance to get at least five rushing touchdowns. All five of them were inside the five. We know that Austin Eckler is not someone that at least the previous coaching staff like to use in that short yardage range. So they might opt for Herbert a couple of times every few weeks to take that touchdown opportunity. I just, this is somebody I'm really afraid that I'm never, I'm not going to have any Justin Herbert. I just don't see myself doing it.
Starting point is 00:34:26 And I feel like I am going to pass up on the next superstar NFL superstar, you know, to Dave's point, um, Dak Prescott over like four years span now has shown us that some quarterbacks can not have the 800, 900 rushing yards, but can still give us five or six rushing touchdowns every year.
Starting point is 00:34:46 I believe it with Dak now because he's done it for four years. I don't believe it with Herbert yet because it's happened once. And now there's a new coaching staff. Yep, totally understand. But it doesn't take much. He's like 6'6 or something like that. So it doesn't take much for him to just get that ball and go right over the goal line.
Starting point is 00:35:03 I could demonstrate the play to you in this studio if you'd like that. From a non-fantasy perspective, I think this is probably the player I'm most excited to see this year. I just really want to see what happens this year with Herbert and if he can become the
Starting point is 00:35:19 next NFL superstar, one of the faces of football. I think just based on last year, it's possible. But yeah, his ADP is a little rich. All right, David. David, let's go to... You can call me David. That's usually what I'm called when I'm in trouble.
Starting point is 00:35:35 David Richards. David Heath Richard. I wish Heath was my middle name. Aaron Rodgers, QB6, 37th overall. I really struggle. I don't know what to make of QB ADP, depending on what site you go on. It's just so different depending on who you're drafting with. It's so different. So let's focus more on the fact that he's QB six. And what do you think about that with Rodgers? Yeah, I think it's just way too soon. And the, the track record that he's talked about, about the, the prior year MVP being hoisted up in fantasy drafts
Starting point is 00:36:07 where Mahomes is going crazy, and Lamar Jackson the year after his MVP. That was last year, by the way. People took him like crazy. Both of them, be it because of injuries or just obvious regression, they took a step back. They weren't as good. They weren't worth taking as the number one overall quarterback.
Starting point is 00:36:23 And not that Rodgers is going number one overall, obviously. Justin Herbert is getting drafted ahead of him, for crying out loud. But 29.1 fantasy points per game is what he gave you last year. He did it when his offensive line was healthy, and he had a cupcake schedule. And in the years prior, his best year was 21.8 2019 he averaged 19.9 fantasy points per game 2018 it was 21.8 uh yeah he's had some good years in his past everybody who's been paying attention to football already knows that but his his receiving core is davante adams who's a god and everybody else who's just not that great the offensive line lost its starting center or rookies replacing him the left tackle's coming back from torn acl and then the thing that gets me every time i think about taking aaron rogers and then i go nah never mind is the schedule last year he had games against the nfc south and the afc south a lot
Starting point is 00:37:15 of weak defenses in there this year it's the nfc west it's the afc north he's going to see the steelers the ravens the browns he's going to see the Rams, the Seahawks, Cardinals, 49ers. I don't know how good the Cardinals will be against the past, but the other teams in that division I think will be tough. It's a tougher schedule for him. I think the division that he's in has gotten tougher, and we've seen terrible years from him, two of the last three years. I'm a little nervous about him returning ADP or returning value.
Starting point is 00:37:42 Forget about it. This ADP, even at like 55 overall. Okay, so where would you take Aaron Rodgers? He's QB what for you? He's a top 10 QB. If you want to know the exact spot, I have to actually dial it up in my rankings. He is actually QB 10. And I currently am ahead of Jalen Hurts, but that was based when Hurts was stinking at
Starting point is 00:38:02 the beginning of training camp. I can probably make the case to take Rodgers. Now, he is, cover your ears if you're a Packers fan or you're an Aaron Rodgers fan, 98th in my PPR overall rankings. So I'm basically not getting Aaron Rodgers is how I have it set up. Kind of like I'm not going to get
Starting point is 00:38:17 Brandon Cooks, not get Aaron Rodgers. Based on your rankings and based on ADP, you're not going to get any quarterbacks because they all go earlier. I'll get somebody, and it's going to be at an amazing value. But really what we have to look at is he's QB6. I think that's more important when you look at the quarterback ADP is where are they going within the position.
Starting point is 00:38:37 Personally, that's how I feel. Yeah, and I understand that. I would just say that I have him 85th, and according to my rankings, I can get Dak or Russell Wilson at the four or five turn i can get um i think i can get jaylen hertz at 95th overall like there are there are definitely quarterbacks in the top 12 that i can get based on my rankings a point in dave's favor and i'll do the same thing i did with adam phelan aaron rogers in terms of touchdown rate has been one of the best in NFL history.
Starting point is 00:39:06 I think he's tied for second or third right now amongst active quarterbacks with a 6.3% touchdown rate. If he had had a 6.3% touchdown rate last year, he would have thrown 15 fewer touchdown passes. Yes, and he would have been something like QB 10, but that was last year. If he had done that in any other year, you know,
Starting point is 00:39:27 his, what he basically, if he had done what he just said with the touchdown rate, he still would have had a tremendous season. And most seasons I think would have been a top five quarterback. You know, I think if he plays 17 games, he'll probably,
Starting point is 00:39:39 I have an eighth. I think if you play 17 games, there's a decent chance he finishes top five. I just don't think he'll be differentiated that much. I think there'll be a bunch of guys in that range. So let's wrap it up with this thought on Rodgers. You know, 2018, he had a pretty good year. He just had a very low touchdown rate.
Starting point is 00:39:55 He was number nine per game in four-point, number 11 per game in six-point. But 4,442 yards, 25 touchdowns, two interceptions. That's amazing. 2019, though, it seemed like he might be on the downside of his career. I mean, the throws weren't as good. He threw for 4,000 yards. He wasn't even top 12 per game. Do any of us think that that's a realistic outcome?
Starting point is 00:40:20 Or do we think that 2019, just in terms of his performance, was an outlier? And at the very least, he's still a great player who's going to at least be solid. I don't think you went back far enough. Oh, if I go back far enough, it's a case for Aaron Rodgers. Right. Well, if you look at it, but if you look at efficiency,
Starting point is 00:40:36 Aaron Rodgers has a career 103.9 passer rating. Okay? Last year was the second time since 2014 that his passer rating was over 100. But he has a career 7.8 yards per attempt. Last year was the first time since 2014 that his yards per attempt were over 7.4.
Starting point is 00:40:58 But he was the number one quarterback in 2016. He was basically... Because he was throwing the ball 600 times. I think... I don't know. I mean, I think people count out Aaron Rodgers. All right.
Starting point is 00:41:09 I'm not counting him out. I'm saying it wasn't a one- or two-year thing where the efficiency... He had that stretch where he was the best quarterback every single year
Starting point is 00:41:18 for like five years. Right. I made that clear. He had a five-year stretch where his efficiency was not at that level. But at the same time, I made that clear. It's not like he was number one, but he was still top 12 per game.
Starting point is 00:41:30 He was still really good, solid. That's all I'm saying. That's what we think he is now. Right. That's what I'm saying. We don't think that he's going to revert back to 2019 where he had a pretty bad year, I think could have to say, I don't, I think it's more likely that he repeats 2019 than that. He repeats 2020.
Starting point is 00:41:52 Yes. That's yes. I don't want to be, I want to be clear. That's not what I'm saying, but I think it's more likely that he repeats 2018, which was solid than 2019, which was pretty disappointing.
Starting point is 00:42:05 Yeah. 2018 was so weird. I don't think there's a very good chance he's throwing it 597 times. I guess I'm just looking at the finish. Right, right. Yeah, and that's why I'm looking at the actual numbers and you're looking at the fantasy finish. It's hard to compare year over year
Starting point is 00:42:21 over the last five years because the game is changing so rapidly in terms of passing production. And we don't know what to do year over year over the last five years because the game is changing so rapidly in terms of passing production. And we don't know what to do with last year when everybody scored 25 fantasy points a game. Yeah, he's also running less every year. So that's another thing to keep in mind. Okay, back to the busts.
Starting point is 00:42:35 Let's do, oh, this will be fun. Josh Jacobs. This is a Dave bust. He's RB19. He's going 41st overall. And go ahead, Dave. Dave, make your case for Josh Jacobs as a bust. At least 15 picks sooner than I would take him.
Starting point is 00:42:49 I'm worried about the offensive line in Las Vegas now that they've reshuffled it. I actually haven't had the chance to watch whatever offensive line they went with in the preseason game against Seattle. Not sure if it even was the starting offensive line. I know Jacobs didn't play in the game. I know no one played in the game.
Starting point is 00:43:04 But just the offseason moves that the Raiders made tell you what they think of Jacobs. They added Kenyon Drake. Jacobs even said himself over the past couple of weeks that Drake is like an X-factor explosive type of option in the offense. It makes me think that he's the change of pace guy. He might be the passing downs guy. What does that leave for Jacobs?
Starting point is 00:43:23 Well, it could leave him in short yardage and goal line work. He did that last year. He wasn't very good at it. Drake was actually better when he was in Arizona. Could be a byproduct of playing with Kyler Murray. Might be something that he's just good at now. And the schedule is going to be tougher than they open the year against the Ravens. They've got the Steelers right after that. I'm nervous about Josh Jacobs getting the type of opportunities that you're looking for from a fantasy stud. And so him being able to cross into the top 12 in a PPR league doesn't seem likely, not when he's not getting a lot of targets. I think it's around three targets per game.
Starting point is 00:43:55 That's what he averaged. I think that he's somebody that's going to disappoint you if you're looking for a very good running back. I think he can be all right, but I think he could also be inconsistent, which is what he was last year. Only five games with 15 or more in PPR. If he does what he did last year, then you'll be very happy if you drafted him in the fourth round. But he's Adam Thielen. He's Adam Thielen because he scored too many touchdowns last year. Yeah, he was saved by touchdowns
Starting point is 00:44:24 last year. He, he was saved by touchdowns last year. He was incredibly inefficient. I think he was saved by just playing 15 games. What did he average? 3.9 yards per carry. It is hard to find a good running back who does that. So, I mean, well, okay, sorry. I'm not saying Josh Jacobs isn't a good running back, but obviously the offensive line... He had 1,300 total yards.
Starting point is 00:44:43 That's a lot better than Adam Thielen. I'm just saying that I feel like personally, I know you like Jacobs, but I feel like the arguments you make against Adam Thielen should apply to Josh Jacobs because his touchdown saved him. And he just really didn't. We have to accept the fact. Really didn't have that good of a year.
Starting point is 00:45:00 He really didn't have that good of a year. I know that he finished high in fantasy, but it was not a good season. He did not have as good of a year as his fantasy finish indicates. That is a different thing than saying taking him as running back 20 in the fourth round. If he does what he did last year, you're going to be upset. No, if he does what he does last year, does what he did last year with a normal touchdown rate, if he has 1,300 yards and scores nine touchdowns instead of 12, where you're taking him is perfectly fine. Absolutely.
Starting point is 00:45:30 But I think the problem that Dave has is that Kenyon Drake is there now, and nobody was taking Jacobs off the field last year, really. Jacobs averaged 16 carries per game, basically, when he was healthy. Brooker averaged 5.2 touches per game when Jacobs was active. I don't actually – like, I think it gets, and I should also say Kenyon Drake left today's practice with an injury. We don't have any specifics on it yet, but that's a possibility. Kenyon Drake has mostly been a backup running back throughout his career.
Starting point is 00:46:00 And I kind of view him as a backup running back. He's a very good one, one of the best, but I don't think he's the same pedigree as Josh Jacobs, and I don't think he's going to limit Jacobs to fewer than 15 touches per game. This is one where I think it's important to remember that our ADP is a mix of non-PPR and full PPR drafts. In a non-PPR draft, if you're telling me I can get Josh Jacobs in the fourth round,
Starting point is 00:46:29 I feel pretty good about that. In a full PPR draft, as I showed during our mock draft last night, he falls to the middle of round five. I feel pretty good about that. Maybe there's not top 10 upside, or maybe the only top 10 upside that exists is that Josh Jacobs scores a bunch of touchdowns like he did last year.
Starting point is 00:46:48 But I do think there's definitely profit room in the fourth round in non-PPR and the fifth round in full PPR. And I don't think outside of Jacobs getting injured, I don't think there's very much risk at that cost either. He feels safer than Miles Gaskin.
Starting point is 00:47:05 Right? Do you feel that way? Yes. Dave, do you think he's either. He feels safer than like Miles Gaskin, right? Do you feel that way? Yes. Dave, do you think he's safer than gas? I'm not sure if I feel that way. Who would you take Gaskin or Jacobs? I have Gaskin ranked higher.
Starting point is 00:47:14 I would, I would take Jacobs. Like I don't, I think you can make the argument for sure that Gaskin has more upside. I'm not sure what the argument would be that Gaskin is safer. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Let's keep going here. Real quick.
Starting point is 00:47:30 Jacobs or Mike Davis? Jacobs. I have Davis ahead of Jacobs. Jacobs or Miles Sanders? Sanders. Jacobs. Let's do a Heath bust here. Leonard Fournette, RB 75th overall I think Leonard
Starting point is 00:47:49 Fournette's the early downs backup running back right now and Giovanni Bernard just continues to earn rave reviews so the the best case scenario is Ronald Jones gets hurt and Leonard Fournette gets to be the early downs running back. Maybe he could even be Josh Jacobs. Why do you think he's the backup to Jones? That's what basically everyone who has, that we've talked to who's been at camp has indicated that they expect Ronald Jones to be the starter. He did. Fournette got the first carry.
Starting point is 00:48:19 Yeah. It seems so. If he is the starter, I don't really think Jones or Fournette's very likely to hold on to those touches throughout the entire season. Bruce Arians likes to go back and forth and doesn't often tell you honest things throughout the week about which one is going to be the guy that week. He probably doesn't know who the guy is. He doesn't know who's going to mess up first. He told me it's not there. Right.
Starting point is 00:48:50 And so I think Fournette's advantage on Ronald Jones is that he's much better in pass protection, and he's a better pass catcher even if he's not a great pass catcher. Those advantages don't help very much when the team's in love with Giovanni Bernard on passing downs. Okay. I don't think we're going to get much of an argument here at 75 overall
Starting point is 00:49:10 for Leonard Fournette as a bust. I've got him 115th overall. There you go. But I don't think Ronald Jones should go 75th overall either. No. I've got him at 82, so not too far behind. Okay. DJ Chark, 81 him at 82, so not too far behind.
Starting point is 00:49:25 Okay. DJ Chark, 81st overall for Dave. That is a bust. He's going ahead of Jerry, Judy, Odell, Beckham, and Cortland Sutton. DJ Chark. I think that the chemistry with Trevor Lawrence and Marvin Jones is there. If you go back and watch the preseason game, their timing is down. Jones made a really spectacular play downfield, and his ADP is even later than Chark's.
Starting point is 00:49:48 Chenault is a good short area target. It looks like that's the role that he's going to begin the season with in that offense. Wouldn't surprise me if he ran some deep routes on top of it, but if he's going to be that little short area buddy for Trevor Lawrence to lean on with those quick throws, I think he'll be great. It makes me wonder if Chark should be third in this group.
Starting point is 00:50:06 He's got big play potential, and I know that Urban Meyer talks about having playmakers on his team all the time, but I honestly don't know if he's that much better than Chenault and Marvin Jones so that he goes ahead of them and goes as a round seven pick. There's a bunch of other receivers that I think I feel better about taking in round seven. And there's other receivers that are available after round seven that I like at their value better than shark in round seven. So if you,
Starting point is 00:50:33 if you follow my logic there, so I'm, I'm, I'm nervous about him just in general. He's probably going to be another guy that just falls down in my rankings and is somebody I don't want to draft. What does ADP? I think it was 86th.
Starting point is 00:50:46 But here's the thing, Heath. I thought to myself, well, it's probably not that high anymore because now he's injured so he might not even be a top 100 pick. So I looked since August 10th on NFC, although I guess I should have looked up when his injury was, but I think this is the window. He's still 84th. He's still
Starting point is 00:51:01 wide receiver 37. I have him 81st right now. Now, that being the case, I'm not going to argue against the possibility of DJ Chark being a bust. I think it's certainly possible. Right now, I have them ranked Marvin Jones, then DJ Chark, then LaVisca Chenault,
Starting point is 00:51:15 back to back to back. Good for you. I mean that, by the way. But I don't, like, this is the range, and Jerry Judy belongs in this range, and Jalen Waddle belongs in this range, and Cortland Sutton and Debo Samuel. This is the range, and Jerry Judy belongs in this range, and Jalen Waddle belongs in this range, and Cortland Sutton and Debo Samuel. This is the range of guys where we're really hopeful
Starting point is 00:51:30 and there is a possibility that they could be 125 target breakout. Maybe not breakout is the right word for Marvin Jones, but you know what I mean. But also there's sitting on your bench, might have to drop them because I have too many guys on a bye that week downside. Sure. Yep. Okay. And I mean, I say it every time I'll say it
Starting point is 00:51:51 again, 14 or more PPR fantasy points in six of the last 23 games for DJ Chark after that first five game stretch to start the 2019 season. Yep. It's a crowded offense now. Yeah. And that hasn't even been his problem. Now it's more crowded.
Starting point is 00:52:07 Now it is. Yeah. Okay, and that's it for Busts. Good stuff, guys. Thank you. Let's read a few emails here. One of these was actually a tweet from Aaron, who is in a 14-team, one-quarterback league,
Starting point is 00:52:20 just added IDP this year. I have no idea how that should change my approach. Help. Now, I did ask him how many IDPs we're talking about. Let me see if he responded. But we haven't talked about IDP. We will when we do our draft next week, I believe. So what do you think?
Starting point is 00:52:36 I don't know. Actually, I don't know when the draft is. But give some IDP advice real quick. I think if you're in a league where you only start three or four individual defensive players, you shouldn't really prioritize them at all. Maybe some of the best defensive linemen you can prioritize because there aren't a lot of guys that you can use at the DL spot who are going to get you big fantasy production from week to week. I'm not even sure if I can
Starting point is 00:53:00 name a bunch of DLs that I would be targeting in that type of a format. Once you get to a league like ours where you're starting nine IDPs, ten IDPs, you'll look into those defensive linemen. You'll want to get high tackle linebackers, high tackle safeties. Those guys will start to proliferate into drafts probably in round six, round seven. Yeah. The other thing I would say is like some leagues,
Starting point is 00:53:26 they add IDP and they start by adding one IDP player. And if that's the case, I would treat them like kickers. Why though? Because there are more than 12
Starting point is 00:53:37 very, very, very high scoring IDP players. And so even if they score, they might all score more than the number five tight end, but they're all going all score more than the number five tight end, but they're all going to score more than the number five tight end. So it doesn't really matter which one you get. So how many IDPs do you have to have
Starting point is 00:53:51 in your lineup in order to prioritize them a little bit? What do you mean by prioritize? What I would say is if you're starting four or four, then I would start drafting them in like round seven or eight and if you're starting like eight then i would start looking for them in the round four or five
Starting point is 00:54:12 if you're starting a full defensive lineup then maybe the very best ones go a little bit earlier and it depends on if it's four idps and they can be any position then i think what you said heath is too soon you can wait a little while longer it's when you've and they can be any position, then I think what you said, Heath is too soon. You can wait a little while longer. It's when you've got specifics of, okay, you need to start two defensive linemen, two linebackers, two defensive backs, something like that. That's when you have to start thinking about supply and demand.
Starting point is 00:54:37 And just so we have it in here, a couple of the defensive linemen that I think are worth taking early on. There's Miles Garrett. Aaron Donald is a stud, of course. Both the bosses are good. Chase Young, I think could be taking early on. There's Miles Garrett. Aaron Donald is a stud, of course. Both the bosses are good. Chase Young, I think, could be better in his second season. Are they all defensive linemen? Or are they linebackers?
Starting point is 00:54:53 Chase Young you can use as a defensive lineman on CBS. You always have to keep it in mind. The edge rushers, sometimes they have linebacker eligibility, sometimes defensive end eligibility or defensive lineman. DeForest Buckner might be in there in there yeah defensive line is tough to find uh depending on how deep your league is obviously defensive back on the other hand there are so many defensive backs are like kickers now there are some great ones but if you play in a league where you have to start multiple defensive backs a lot of idps i mean this is a waiver why it's like oh i'll just i'll just
Starting point is 00:55:24 find somebody on the waiver wire and get me seven points or whatever. Two, two other real quick ones. Make sure you like scoring is wild across the board. So don't be an Acer, go read the rules. Um,
Starting point is 00:55:35 you need to know how important tackles are relative to big plays. And then one piece of advice that I would say for IDP, I don't think this is going to get implemented in any of my leagues this year, but we need to go away from the one point for a tackle, half a point for an assisted tackle. Nobody knows who's scoring that or how they're deciding what is what. And it's just infuriating when you're watching a matchup
Starting point is 00:55:59 and you need a certain number of tackles from a player waiting to see if he's going to get a full tackle or an assisted tackle for a play. And one final thing, it just brings me back to this wonderful moment last year during our podcast league draft. I don't know, maybe about eight rounds in and people were criticizing my wide receivers, I think. And I said, hey, we only have to start two in this league. And he said, what? We only have to start two in this league. So I think he's been hanging around me a little bit too long. Didn't read the rules. All right.
Starting point is 00:56:30 Kevin Bean is in a full PPR league with three keepers. He's keeping Iyuk and Metcalf. Should his last keeper be Miles Gaskin or Mike Davis in round 10? They're both round 10 picks, so it's just who do you like better as a keeper, Gaskin or Davis? I might change my mind on this one, but I've got Gaskin higher for now.
Starting point is 00:56:47 I change my mind every day on this one. Today is the day that I'm going to go with Myles Gaskin. This is from Craig. Four point for passing touchdown league. I drafted Josh Allen as my QB1. Who's a better guy to have on the bench, Trey Lance or Justin Fields? This is another one where I could see myself changing my tune as we roll along here. It's Lance for now, and I wish we would see Justin Fields play in another preseason game. I know he's got the groin issue.
Starting point is 00:57:18 It might keep him out of the second week of the preseason. But if he were to go out and look good again, like he did against the dolphins, I would imagine that it would just be a matter of weeks before he would start for the bears. If not week one, Lance had that great play to surefield. He had a lot of suspect throat. He had a lot of receivers drop passes too.
Starting point is 00:57:38 So it was very up and down, but he had a couple of near INTs against Kansas city. So maybe there's a little bit to worry about as a passer here with Lance. Yeah, I'm going with Fields. And bonus, you can name your team Fields of Dreams. So that's nice. Just because of him?
Starting point is 00:57:59 Yeah. He's going to be that good. He looked amazing. I'd rather name him. He did not look like a rookie at all. Oh, please. Are you kidding me? Did you watch that game?
Starting point is 00:58:10 Did you see him in the first half? He didn't look like a rookie. He threw some dangerous passes. Yes, he had a play where he threw what should have been interception, and then I don't know if it was the next play, but almost right after he fumbled. We need to calm down. Yeah, he was running.
Starting point is 00:58:23 He didn't protect the ball. That's fixable. Yeah, okay. Okay, He didn't protect the ball. That's fixable. And then, yeah, okay. Okay, so that was a bad throw. How many other bad throws did he have? The whole team was terrible against the Dolphins' defense until the second half,
Starting point is 00:58:34 until the starters came out. What was greater? Justin Fields' incompletions or Trey Lance's completions? I know the answer. Probably Justin Fields' incompletions. By one the answer. Probably Justin Fields incompletions. By one. By one.
Starting point is 00:58:48 Yep. Okay. Last one here is from Matthew in Texas, where the West begins. You know that Dave, where a town where the West begins in Texas. Is El Paso too far West? It's got to be El Paso.
Starting point is 00:59:02 Okay. I'm saying El Paso. El Paso. Could I i've said that like that was pretty sure that the west begins in st louis that's like the gateway to the west but that's the right that's a different no it's fort worth yeah it's like the stockyards yep all right the question is it says dear pat bow and cam those are auburn tigers. Those are Auburn Tigers. Who's Pat? Who's Pat? Oh, I don't remember his last name. I interviewed him and I don't remember
Starting point is 00:59:30 his last name. What the hell was their quarterback? He won the Heisman. Right? Or did he not? Oh, man. They had Pat die as a coach. What was this guy's name? I think he was... Schermer. Eighth pick. Pat from Saturday Night Live. Eighth pick in a PPR league. I often he was. No. Eighth pick. Pat from Saturday Night Live.
Starting point is 00:59:45 Eighth pick in a PPR league. I often see Eckler falling to me at 108 and Keenan Allen at 308. I'm stuck deciding if I want to make it three charges with Justin Herbert. What do you think about putting three players from one team on your squad? In a PPR
Starting point is 01:00:02 league with those two guys, I don't mind because I think they'll get a nice amount of targets every week. Throwing Herbert on top of it makes me wonder if you should be doing that in a best ball and not in a redraft. For sure. Yeah. That's it. Pat Sullivan is the quarterback you were looking for,
Starting point is 01:00:16 Adam. He won the Heisman in 1971. I was thinking of Patrick Nix. Yeah. He did not win the Heisman. I don't believe. Okay. Tell us about that interview with Pat Sullivan in 1971. I don't believe you.
Starting point is 01:00:29 No, Patrick Nix is the one that I must have interviewed, is the one I interviewed, yeah. I think he became a Miami, yeah, he actually was Miami's offensive coordinator at one point. I interviewed him in 06. Do you remember? Doing a story on Auburn. No, I don't remember it well, so I definitely
Starting point is 01:00:46 don't think he did. Did you guys answer the questions? Those must be Auburn Heisman winners, by the way, right? Yeah, I don't care about the Justin Herbert thing. I would take him if he was the best quarterback available when I was ready to take a quarterback, and I wouldn't avoid him because of that,
Starting point is 01:01:02 but I wouldn't target him unless it was best ball. More Arnold quotes in the inbox. All right, we'll save those for another day. Thanks for listening, everybody. We will talk to you tomorrow with a mailbag on Fantasy Football Today. And we also will talk to you tomorrow about our poker tournament. Unless, Ben, should we do that now?
Starting point is 01:01:23 Let's wait on that for now. All right, well, we'll talk to you about our awesome poker tournament that you can be a part of on tomorrow's show. For Heath Cummings, Dave Richard, and Ben Schrager, I'm Adam A. Have a good one.

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