Fantasy Football Today - Busts! Tyreek Hill, Michael Thomas, Cam Akers and More (06/16 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 16, 2022

Buy some FFT stuff here (use promo code FANTASYFOOTBALL20): https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20 The headliners on the busts lists include Diontae Johnson (2:10) for Dave and Tyreek Hill (4:40) for Dan. What concerns do we have for these wide receivers? Also, Dave and Dan call out a bust on each other's lists as we talk about Amon-Ra St. Brown (13:10) and Devin Singletary (19:05). Is Singletary really a bust if he's going 80th overall? ... News and notes (29:30) and right back into the busts! Joe Burrow (31:31) is great but he should not be the fourth QB off the board. At running back (33:40) we discuss Javonte Williams and Cam Akers as Akers might be going way too early. And Dan highlights three RBs who are being drafted in Round 4 (38:50) with some serious concerns about their roles ... WR busts (50:30) including Michael Thomas and Brandon Aiyuk and we finish with Pat Freiermuth (53:15) who is a bust for Dan but a breakout for Dave ... Your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. All right, everybody. You know those guys that you really regret having on your team. You just wish they were never around. Just saying their name brings back bad memories, makes you feel sick to your stomach. If it were up to you, you would never have to deal with these guys again.

Dan Schneier is back. What's going on, Dan? How are we doing? What's up, Adam? If there's one request I can ask of you because... Oh, wow. I didn't, you know, that went right over my head.

It went right over my head. You know what, Adam? You can make it up for me. Up to me. You know how you do that? Oh. You talk to Scott Fish when he's on next week

and you make sure that I'm in your division for the Scott Fish Bowl. He takes requests. Make sure I'm in your division. I need to prove once and for all that I can dismantle you in a fantasy football league. Hold on.

Has there ever been two CBS guys in the same? I don't, but he'll do it, but I don't think we've had it, which is why I don't think we've had it either. We might have to make Dan incognito. Yeah. Yeah.

Right. Part of a times where video.com or something like that. We've been in many fantasy leagues together. I think what you're saying is you've never done better than me in a fantasy league. No, that's not true at all. At least three last year, but don't worry. Maybe this will be your year. So this is a busts episode.

We're talking about some big names, actually, on the bust list. Tyreek Hill, Cam Akers, a couple of 49ers, Joe Burrow, and we'll see what these guys have to say and looking forward to it. A lot of it's based on ADP. It's not based on these guys stink. It's based on they're being drafted too high. We've been looking at average draft position on the NFC website since May 1st, which as of yesterday was 75 drafts. So we have a pretty decent sample size there, and it's all post-NFL drafts. So time to react to a lot of the news that we've seen.

Anyway, let's get your biggest bust. If you're giving me a headliner, Dave, who's the headliner on your bust list? The headliner on my bust list, I would go with Deontay Johnson. I would say that he's probably the biggest name that's on my list. You might disagree.

You might say that it's Javante Williams, but I can't make as good of a case for Devontae as I could for Deontay Johnson. He's the biggest name on the bus list. Okay. And we're looking at him as about a round three pick, Deontay Johnson. Way too soon. Yeah. And Devontae is still like borderline round one pick, right? Yeah. Which is the basis there. We'll get into that. Yeah, both those guys, sure.

Yeah, okay. Go ahead. Give me 30 seconds on Deontay Johnson, who's going 36th overall end of round three. He's going just after Jalen Waddell, who I think is on Dan's bus list, right, Waddell? No, Waddell's not on my bus list. Tyreek Hill is on my bus list.

He's got Tyreek kill on the bus list see i i think we're gonna hear a case for waddle over tyree kill this year in fantasy i'm looking forward to that i think he had waddle on his bus list yesterday when we did fft and five anyway he's going interesting okay so we're everybody's fading some part of the dolphins i mean because they're going so early like jaylen waddle 35th overall yeah I I totally get that anyway sorry yeah I think his success was a byproduct of Ben Roethlisberger doing what he wanted to do on offense and I really believe that the Steelers just said all right Roethlisberger in Ben we trust you run the offense I think their offense looks a lot different this year and I think they try and spread the ball

around a little bit more and I think George Pickens is going to end up mattering. I don't know if he's going to be so great for fantasy that we're going to start George Pickens on a week to week basis, but he might take just enough work away from Deontay Johnson and Deontay Johnson. He's only made it in fantasy because of the high target volume that he has. He actually does not rate well in things like yards after catch per reception, explosive play rate, yards per route run, compared to the elite wide receivers, the receivers that settle in in fantasy points where Deontay Johnson settles in in fantasy points. I think that target share goes down. I don't think he's nowhere near as good statistically, especially in non-PPR, but also in full PPR, as what we've seen in the past. I guess my question is, the players that settle in with Deontay Johnson in terms of the fantasy

points they score, they're better in the advanced metrics than Deontay Johnson. He just has a target volume. But is he being drafted amongst those players, or is he already discounted? Oh, I think he's discounted a little bit compared to those guys, but I still think it's too soon. But not enough. Okay. Not enough. So, Schneider, give me your biggest bust, your headliner.

So my headliner is not my biggest bust and I'm most confident in, but it's going to be the headliner. And the headliner here is Tariq Hill for me. And my case with Tariq Hill is this. Let's start at the top here. He's going from a quarterback who threw double the passes that were 15 plus yards and air yards last year and Patrick Holmes to one who threw half less than half into a tech vote actually to a through the second fewest uh deep

passes in the NFL on a percentage basis so we start there but we continue forward with things that bother me about this fit with Tyreek Hill in Miami. And we start with the idea that they, they had last year, a very unique offense. It was basically a full RPO offense. It was something that was similar in a lot of ways to me, to the wildcat as in, if they tried to do it again this year, it was not going to work, but it worked last year. And it was a lot of just quick slant RPO, read that overhang defender. If he commits to the run, you throw the slant. What that told me was nothing really progressed with Tua as a passer and they had to use a unique offense. Now they're going to try a different kind of offense. And it's similar to what we saw with Jimmy G in San Francisco with Shanahan. It's drop back, hit the back, fit off play action and throw

the football. None of that fits what Tyreek Hill does best. And all of this doesn't even factor in that they're going to be a lot more run heavy this year. We saw it last year with another disciple who went over to the Jets. And the Jets are one of the most run heavy teams in neutral situations. This is going to be an offense that wants to run the football. All of these Shanahan-based systems are run based, in my opinion. I know it doesn't seem like that with the weapons, but I think we're going to see a more run heavy system than people believe. And I think the volume is going way down for Hill.

The deep pass volume's going way down for Hill. I just don't like the fit at all for Hill with Tua and in this system. Okay, just quick counter here. If you just look at intended air yards per pass attempt, how far down the field they were throwing on average, Patrick Mahomes was 25th at 7.3. And Tua Tungabailoa was 30th at 7.0.

So they had very similar, you know, intended air yards per pass attempt. Now, if you break it down, whatever deep ball is, okay, that'd be one thing. Maybe Mahomes threw more deep balls or a lot more than Tua on a percentage basis. But just air yards per pass attempt, very similar.

7.3 for Mahomes, 7.0 for Tua. And that's unusual for Mahomes, obviously. And Tyreek Hill had an unusual season. But he did have a career high in targets, catches. He basically became a more short area target with 111 catches, you know, lower yards per try. Basically, he morphed in that Kansas City offense, which looked very different

than the Kansas City offense we're used to seeing. Can that carry over to the Dolphins? I don't think it carries over for a multitude of reasons, but mostly because Tua is going to be asked to operate in a true drop-back offense as a true drop-back passer now. And that's not something he's proven he can do at the NFL level. The only success he had, like I said, last year was when they went to that really

gimmicky offense at RPO heavy offense. And I've seen too, I just don't have enough faith into it to operate the type of offense that you need. Even if the volume is there or similar in the short area stuff, I don't, I don't trust him in the deep passing game. And I think you take away a big element of Tyreek Hill, especially when the ADP is this high. I mean, he's still being drafted right now, 22.4, 22.45 and around 20 pick 23 overall, you're taking them over players like Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley, Mike Evans, who I think has a much better chance of putting up consistent numbers. In my opinion, AJ Brown, who I think is a similar level talent, maybe even better because he's better against press, and Fitz, a quarterback who, again,

I have more faith in. I think this, again, I think this offense is going to be a lot more run heavy than people realize or think right now because I know everyone feels like they're going full pass heavy, but I just don't know if I see it with McDaniel. So one of the things I looked up while you were talking was how many targets and catches, et cetera, did Tyreek Hill have on passes of 15 or fewer air yards? So shorter throws, intermediate throws, the stuff that I think we're going to hear and see Tyreek Hill do. And the reason why I said here is because I've heard that minicamp did not go so great for Tua Tungavailoa and that he was throwing a bunch of lollipops. And he,

I don't know. I know he rated very well in terms of adjusted completion rate on deep balls. And he just didn't throw a lot of deep balls last year. And they're hoping that the offensive line is going to be fixed with Armstead there. But I don't, I don't see the deep ball being a huge component of what the, the dolphins do.

They'll take their shots when they can but i think they're going to be much more interested in designing um passing plays of shortened intermediate throws tyreek had a ton of catches on intermediate stuff just like you guys talked about 97 catches but only for 787 yards that's's really bad. That's a receiving average that 8.1, that rated 159th among wide receivers. That's all wide receivers, apparently. Seven touchdowns on those throws. The number that really got me, where is it? Yards after catch per reception, 3.74.

Explosive play rate, 4.8 percent now maybe it was just a bad year for tyree kill but for a guy who's supposed to be impossible to catch he should be able to get open on you know simple post route get into space and go and he didn't do that last year in kansas city now he's expected to do that this year in Miami. Makes me a little nervous to trust him, especially at what that ADP says. So when would you trust him, Tyreek Hill? Because all this said, all this negativity, he was on a per-game basis the ninth-best wide receiver in non-PPR

and the sixth-best wide receiver in full PPR. So when would you trust Tyreek Hill? I think he's close to Mike Evans. In terms of a guy who's going to get plenty of targets and a lot of catches, I think Evans will have more touchdowns. But I guess I'm drafting them around the same space, which would mean that they're closer to, like,

end of round two, beginning of round three. Which is exactly where he's going. He's going 23rd. Sure. Okay, so you're not sharing in the bust at all. I don't know where Dan's drafting him, but I do know that people are taking him inside of the top 20,

and I think that that's a little too soon. Dan, what about you? When would you... Because if I get him in the third round, which I don't think is going to happen, but I'd love that. But what about you, Dan? I need him to fall all the way

into the Deontay Johnson-Michael Pittman range for me to buy in. Even then, I'm a little skeptical. Again, I worry about things like you're going from a quarterback who you had a great rapport with, you developed a rapport with over time, to a quarterback you have no rapport with who, like Dave said, doesn't look great so far in minicamp, has never looked great at the NFL level, in my mind doesn't really have NFL-level arm talent. I just don't trust it.

Okay. All right, so Deontay Johnson for Dave Tyreek Hill for Dan. Those are our headliner busts. Fantasy Football Today is here to help you dominate your fantasy league all season long and now you can represent your favorite podcast with some

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or you can just Google CBS Sports Store Fantasy Football Today, and it'll take you there. But I'll put a link in the episode description and use the promo code FANTASYFOOTBALL20 for 20% off. Okay, now you're going to call out a bust on each other's lists. So, Dan, take a look at Dave's bust list that he provided us. Joe Burrow, who's going as QB4 in ADP. Javante Williams, ADP is 14th. Cam Akers, 29th. Deontay Johnson, Amandra St. Brown, 59th.

Brandon Ayuk, 97th. And George Kittle, 51st overall. That's the bus list from Dave. Burrow, Javante, Akers, Deontay Johnson, Amandra St. Brown, Ayuk and Kittle. You want to call one of those out? Would you like to ask for further explanation or just straight up disagree? Go for it. So unfortunately, we can't do that for the first four. I'm in lockstep with Dave on those, but I can call him out on one of these. I'm going to

call him out on Amara St. Brown because while I don't see a massive ceiling for him at 59 overall, basically 59 overall by ADP in that Cooper cup light role with Jared Goff with the second year rapport going for them. I know they added Jameson Williams, but I do think that he will be more of the security blanket, more of that slot option that Goff has to go to. So I like him at that spot. So that's the one I would call out.

Oh man, I would, I am happy to let you have him at that spot because there is – you'll agree with me that there's no way he's going to have a 33% target share. No shot. Yeah, what we saw in those final four games, I agree. No shot. Do you think he even has a 20% target share in this offense? So that's where – I think he can. I really think it will operate through him. I don't think they're going to have the ability to get the ball to Jameson as much as they want to in year one. I want to run down some of the stats that he had.

These are metrics that he had during his breakout six-game stretch at the end of last season. Keep in mind, there's no DeAndre Swift. There's no TJ Hawkinson. There's no DJ Chark. Not that that's a huge deal. It's DJ Chark, whatever. And there's no Jameson Williams. And there probably won't be a Jameson Williams to start the year.

And now, to be fair, there was TJ Hawkinson for one game. This is the final six games of the year when Amandra St. Brown was on pace for 144 catches, 1,587 yards, 14 touchdowns on 190 targets.

Hawkinson played the first game and St. Brown was out for the next five. Swift played, I think the last two, but, but he was super wasn't really himself. Yeah. Okay. These are the metrics for a Monroe St. Brown. Remember he did good in these games for fantasy 10.98 yards per catch 7.08 dot two targets

inside the 10. Uh, that's it 7.08 dot, two targets inside the 10. That's it. That's what I got. So not necessarily someone who was blowing up the charts in terms of efficiency. He was a volume play. It's almost the same argument that I made for Deontay Johnson, except in this case, I just don't think that that same type of opportunity will be there for him. I think he's a good receiver.

I think he's good as a slot receiver. To even mention him in the same sentence as Cooper Cup is crazy to me yeah that was fun that was fun no no no let me clarify you said it was like a low version of super light the poorest man's version okay so like he's a feather on the big bird of cooper Cup. Still, round five, too soon to take somebody like this. Way too soon to take him. I don't know if he has even, like, two games, like what we saw toward the end of last season. Dave won me on that argument.

He won me over on that. Wait, wait, whoa, hold on. He did, and I'm not going to, I can't take any of these other ones. Well, we have to look at the other guys going after him. Hold on, let's see if you agree with this. Yeah, let's see the guys go in the range. Dan.

Go ahead. I'm taking him maybe a little bit before 100th overall. Oh, wow. Could you get on board with that with Amon Ra, St. Brown? So now we're talking about players. This is round nine. Right, we're talking about Brandon Ayuk of the, the Brandon Ayuk's of the world.

Oh no, Ayuk is another, I'll take St. Brown ahead of Iyuk. We're talking about the Robert Woods of the world. Would you take Robert Woods over? No. It's the rookie receivers are going in this race. Craig London, Christian Kirk. Yes, I will take them ahead of A.R. Amon-Rosny-Brown. I don't know why I'm putting an M in there.

Yeah, that's late. I mean, that's so much later. I can't believe he's wide receiver 23 in the ADP we're looking at. He's going ahead of Jerry Judy, Alan Robinson, Cortland Sutton, Brandon Cooks, Gabriel Davis. Even though I like him,

I'm not going to make that case for Amando St. Brown. But I do think that when you start talking about his advanced metrics and stuff, I think it's a little unfair. He's a rookie who wasn't even playing with Jared Goff for some of that stretch, right?

They were on backup quarterbacks. He was in and out of the lineup in the first two-thirds of the year. And he was a rookie who had a really good year. And I don't want to judge him too harshly on advanced metrics. You know, I mean, he just, he really... First of all, he's also going to be a guy who varies very differently

depending on format. So top 60 in non or half PPR, no chance. But I think I'd take him 80th in full PPR, Amon or St. Brown. Where do you have him compared to the other Hopkins? I'd take Hopkins, probably. Knowing that Hopkins is going to miss six games. But would you, the more I look at this, would you even take him at 80?

Because that's over guys like Adam Thielen, Rashad Bateman, and Devante Smith. Well, it doesn't mean that I think those guys have appropriate ADPs. You know, maybe they're just going too late also. But I think, wait, who did you say? Thielen, Bateman? No, I'd take all those guys over him.

I know, and so would I. The more I think about it, so I can't even. Right after that would be 84. So Traylon Burks. Traylon Burks, Tyler Lockett, Drake London. Yeah. Would you take them ahead of Amon or St. Brown? I'm taking St. Brown ahead of those guys.

Not me. I know. All right, Dave, you want to call out a Schneier sleeper? So we're looking at, he gave about 30 people on his bus. I said sleepers, breakouts, and I meant busts. So Dan's busts are Tyreek Hill, Antonio Gibson going 41st, Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne. They're all going in round four, basically.

Gibson, Jacobs, Etienne, Devin Singletary at 82. Pat Fryermuth is one of your breakouts he's on the bus list for dan and dac prescott going 68th i want to hear about a lot of these guys dan and and we will get to etn in due time because maybe maybe i need somebody to talk me down off of travis edm because i have him ranked right around where his ADP is. But I need to hear the case why Devin Singletary is a bad picket at 82nd overall. I'm so happy you gave me this opportunity because this is going to be my spicy take of the podcast. I'm not so sure.

I'm not sold. I would even draft Devin Singletary. How about that? Let me give my case for why. You think you're going to beat me in the Scott Fish Bowl? You're not even going to draft there. Devin Singletary. Let me get my case for why Devin Singletary is borderline draftable. What is so different about Devin Singletary right now than Zach Moss last year when we were drafting Zach Moss, even a few rounds later than this,

we've seen already in the past, the bills are very not so sticky when it comes to who's going to be the lead running back, right? Last year was supposed to be Zach Moss. Everyone's jacking Zach Moss. Singletary was an afterthought undrafted in most leagues. Then what do we know? They flip back to Singletary. Now we add to that situation. We already know that.

We also know the bills are not a team that wants to run the football almost ever. That's an offense that throws the ball at an incredible rate and they don't. And there's been very little success at the running back position in Buffalo during the Josh Allen era, especially since he's broken out. Then you add all that into their pursuit, their heavy pursuit for JD McKissick this off season. It failed. He signed, he went back to Washington, whatever. What did they do? They draft James cook. And if you watch James cook and I want you to watch him at him, cause I know you're going to see it within a second. I'm not sure. I've seen him. Sure. You watch him, James cook, you watch him.

And within five minutes of watching James cook, you're like, Oh, is this Dalvin? Cause it's not just his brother. He has the exact same run style as Dalvin. And I don't think he's as big as he's. Yeah.

He's as much smaller back. I don't, I'm not comparing the two from an overall standpoint, but they have the exact same similar run style with their ability to see the field, to cut back the insane level of processing. And he wasn't utilized very much as a runner, but he is a next level receiver. And this was a similar thing to what we saw from Alvin Kamara when he came out of Tennessee, not very, not used

a lot, not a heavy workload ends up being a star because of his receiving skills and a little bit of surprising between the tackle stuff that he wasn't given credit for. I think it's a very similar case. So now you have another talented back that I actually think is by far and away the most talented back they have in that backfield in an offense that isn't very friendly to running backs and hasn't been in the Josh Allen era on a team that could easily switch back to Zach Moss at any time, especially in the red zone. I just don't understand what to like.

Singledary to me is just not someone I have any interest in drafting. I know he had the stretch run last year, but that was before James Cook was there. And that was also in a situation where, you know, that, you know, that the team has,

again, leaned on the past a lot through the Josh Allen years. Yeah. Uh, that's, uh, that is definitely spicy. And I will admit that there is a part of me that I definitely think

that there is some skyrocket upside with James Cook, like Alvin Kamara type upside with him. I don't think it's guaranteed to happen, but it could. He's a really good pass catcher out of the backfield. He's in the right kind of offense for it to happen. And there's no doubt that the Buffalo Bills are a pass-friendly offense. I like the way that Singletary's season ended last year. He had at least 15 touches in five of his last six games. That includes the playoffs. I believe he scored in every single one of those games as well.

Could it be that part of the reason why the Buffalo Bills weren't a run heavy team was because they didn't have anybody that they could hand off to with a semblance of confidence? And toward the end of last year, they realized that Singletary was that guy and he did okay with it when he ran the football. It's not like his metrics were off the charts good, but he had a bunch of games where he was averaging over four yards per carry, and he was a factor in the pass game as well. I think the season begins with Singletary as the main back, and maybe Singletary and Cook split that passing downs work, because I think when Cook is on the field, that will be a tell for defenses to know, all right, watch this guy, and you can probably bank on a running play.

If a running play happens at all, it'll probably be with Josh Allen more than it would be with James Cook. I think they ease Cook in a little bit, and they try and make sure that he, they see what they have in him. Is he just a passing downs guy, or could he develop into more than that? So I view Singletary as a running back that you can definitely start in fantasy at the beginning of the year. And if James Cook is just a passing downs guy, maybe you can start Singletary all year long. I like the ADP of round seven.

I think he's probably even worth it in round six. Okay. He is coming off a finish. Last five games of the year, he was the number three running back in fantasy. And I think even the advanced metrics, if you just look at Devin Singletary on paper and you never watched a game, you'd think he's a pretty good running back.

His yards per carry is good. His advanced metrics are pretty good. His PFF has this elusiveness rating. He's the king of that. But was that not the case going into last year with Zach Moss? Because I remember hearing a very similar the case going into last year with Zach Moss? It's true. I remember hearing a very similar argument for Zach Moss last year. Moss only had one year under his belt at that point.

Devin Singletary has three. And Moss was so beat up coming out of Utah. He was. And he started to get beat up coming into the— I mean, I think we talked about this, Dan. It's not something that surprised us at all that Zach Moss fell out of favor there. And now I don't, I don't know how soon they're going to let him back on the field.

I don't even know if he makes the roster. I want to add that. I personally don't think Devin Singletary is one of the best running backs in football. I'm just saying on paper, if you didn't, if you never watched football and you just looked at some metrics, you might think that he's one of them.

I don't know. Maybe he is, but I never really, I don't think anybody. He's a good yards creator. And in a different offense, and maybe with a bulkier offensive line, you might look at him differently, Adam.

I would like Singletary if he's in a different, this is not a take on his skill and his talent level. I think he's actually a really good between the tackles runner, and he creates in space, and he creates after contact. Oh man, does he ever. It's an offensive issue for me.

I don't see the path toward him paying back this ADP on an offense. It's such a nothing ADP. What do you mean it's a nothing ADP? It's a nothing ADP. It's a mid-round ADP. 83 overall, that's a mid-round ADP. That's the end of round seven. He's going over potential breakouts like Devontae Smith.

You always say this. You always say this, that this running back is going over this potential breakout at wide receiver. Dan, I can't take a wide receiver in every round. I can't do that. At some point, I've got to get a running back. If you want to win. If I can get the primary running back, running downs guy for the possibly best offense in football,

and if they are going to have running back rushing touchdowns, he's going to have the bulk of them. At the end of the seventh round. I am fine with that. That is not a big investment at all. I mean, if we're talking about a crappy offense, then maybe there's a lot of ifs there, because while the offense is good,

it has never proven to be good for running backs. And it's not a run heavy offense at all, especially in the red zone. And then you also factor in Josh Allen's red zone rushing ability. So really, what do we have here?

A guy who can maybe rack up 75 yards a game if they're playing with a big lead and they're running the football. It seems a lot like the Clyde Edwards, a layer case. And I used to be a Clyde Edwards fan. Yeah, I guess so.

But he's got good for running backs. Here are his last five games of the regular season. Number three running back in fantasy. I know he had the stretcher. 16, 17, 23, 24. I can do the math for you on what he did in the playoffs if you want. And I'll also tell you that he had three Russian touchdowns in two playoff games. I'll also tell you that once upon a time,

Frank Gore led the team in carries inside the five-yard line. He just stunk with them. He was terrible. There have been opportunities for running backs to be good in this offense, but none of them have ever capitalized on it. Singletary finally did. We're not drafting him like that. That's why he's going 80th.

But that was also before the offense evolved. Right now, what are we seeing from this offense? What does the James Cook addition mean to you? To me, it means they're moving even further in the pass direction. They're looking for somebody who can be the outlet for Josh Allen when his other weapons aren't open downfield. That's what it is.

I don't know if it's only going in a different direction, but they wanted somebody to make plays. But does that say you're going to go more run heavy as an offense? Does that tell you that? No, but they were going 80th much of the end of last year. And Singletary still did fine with them. Yeah.

And it helps that his rushing touchdowns. How many did he have last year? Three, four, five, six, seven, eight,

nine, 10, 11. If you include the playoffs, all but three of them came from six yards or closer to the goal line. So they found somebody that can score in short yardage, something that Frank Gore couldn't do and something that Zach Moss should be able to do, but hasn't for a myriad of reasons. Snire, you're done, bro. We'll see. We'll see. That's what you said about Hawkinson last year.

We'll see. Was Hawkinson really a bust? You hang your hat on that. I would say he was. How about Dak Prescott when I told you he was going to stop running and he cut his carries in half, he cut his rushing yards in half, and ran for one touchdown? Okay.

He was obviously coming off the injury. They said he's going to run more this year. We'll see if that happens. They paid him a lot of money. I don't think they're going to be running with him in the red zone anymore. Okay. I think they could, but I don't know if it's going to matter

for more than three touchdowns. Well, listen, guys, I'm going to tell you out loud, since I can't message you privately, we're going to have to go a lot faster on the rest of the bus. These are good fun conversations. I appreciate it.

It's good stuff. But we've got a lot more names to get to here. We've talked about Deontay Johnson and Amonra St. Brown on Dave's bus list. We've talked about Deontay Johnson and Amandra St. Brown on Dave's bus list. We've talked about Tyreek Hill and Devin Singletary on Dan's bus list. We're going to take a break.

We've got some news and notes to get to, and then we'll get back to the players who will not meet their ADPs. We'll be right back on fantasy football today. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to powers your scale with no preset spending limit. More cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days. And the ability to reach further with access to over 1,400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum.

That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit am the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. News and notes. Cliff Kingsbury is praying that a deal for Kyler Murray gets done before training camp. So we'll keep an eye on that. We're going to have an FFT in five episode

going over some of the big news to kind of catch you up because I'm going to mostly skip it today. Pittsburgh signed safety Minka Fitzpatrick to a four-year deal. He's the highest paid safety now, $36 million guaranteed. Jets offensive tackle Mika Bechtin is motivated. He was wearing a shirt. Did the shirt

say bust on it? I think it did. I don't know. I didn't hear this story. He wore a shirt to a press conference that said bust on it and had like a bunch of words around it that overweighed. He should have just put injury prone across his chest. That may have been on there too. But Mekhi Becton is a guy who was, I think, the 11th pick in the draft a few years ago.

He's a man and a half. Yeah, hasn't really panned out. If he stays healthy, he'll be unbelievable. Weight issues. But they need a big season for him. Ron Rivera said the commanders are not trading Terry McLaurin. Also, Chase Young, their star defensive end, likely to start training camp on the pup list.

He tore his ACL in Week 10. Saints defensive end Marcus Davenport is a great player. Had a portion of his pinky amputated. So hopefully that does not affect him because they definitely need him. Indianapolis safety Kari Willis, a starting safety for the Colts. He is retiring. And they also traded Rak Yassin

to the Raiders in the offseason to bolster their pass rush. So the secondary might be a little worse. I think that, no, they signed Stephon Gilmore and Rodney McLeod. They're going to be okay. I think they knew this was coming. Julian Edelman did not rule out returning and said if he did,

he'd probably play for the Patriots, which is great because they don't have a crowded receiving court or anything. All right. To the bus. He'll play on the outside. So there's only one quarterback on here. It's Joe Burrow. Dave, you like Bur Burrow but is it just

QB4 is just crazy it's crazy it's just so crazy to me when you consider the fact that before he had those two huge games at the end of the season those were 40 point games he was averaging 20.1 fantasy points per game he's a great quarterback and i'm sure that he's going to have a higher average than that in his non-amazing games and he will have some amazing games but taking him ahead of some of the quarterbacks that he's being taken ahead of it's just it's fueled by the super bowl run hype that has carried him here and he's awesome he's swagalicious he's very cool great quarterback etc etc but not worth taking is a early round five pick you think he's cooler than me yes very few people are cooler than you i do i would agree with that but burrows on the list okay

apparently burrow might be the coolest dude walking the planet. I actually agree with that. This is a great take. Really? Yes. Who would be my pick for that? Coolest dude. Because a lot of people try to have that swagger. And he just seems to take it to another level. And it almost feels like he's doing it without thinking about it.

It's a natural drift. This is coming from me, who is clearly the expert on swag. Well, the three of us, I'd say. All of us. Big swag guys. As the kids 10 years younger than us, or 20 maybe in some cases, would say, it's natural drift. I mean, I was asked to start doing TikTok.

Yes. I did a TikTok, too, for us last year. I don't even have TikTok on my phone. I mean, that's clearly I've got some flex. Yeah. I don't even have TikTok on my phone. I don't even have Instagram. Oh, my God. You know who I think is... Boy, even I've got Instagram.

You know who I think is really cool? If you don't have Instagram, how are you going to follow that band you loved in college that no one's ever heard of? Phantom Planet. You've heard of them.

Yeah, no. Phantom Planet. I think Aaron Judge is really cool. I think he's the coolest, certainly the coolest baseball player. It's a cool name. It's baseball.ire all right don't you write the baseball newsletter anyway

uh running backs doesn't mean he likes it all right we gotta talk about giovante williams and cam acres on the bus list for dave and then we'll talk about a trio of round four picks josh jacobs travis etn and anton and Antonio Gibson on Dan's list. The dead zone, also known as the Acer zone. Yeah, the people who complain about the dead zone must think that you just don't need to start any running backs and you could just take wide receivers. You play in one of those leagues where it's just all flexes.

Nah, not necessarily. Or you just scoop up Cordero Patterson types early and you're fine. Early? Yeah, early in the waiver wire process. Oh, early in the season, okay. Yeah. Early in the phrase, early in the waiver wire process. Oh, early in the season. Okay.

Yeah. So you got to draft them before they even hit waivers. Well, yeah. And you're really a step ahead. That's what we try to do around here. Yes, exactly.

Those are tougher to do, but I feel like there's a lot more options now at the running back position than there ever were based on that reception. Uh, you just based on getting that to the reception, uh, threshold. All right. Dave Devante Williams at 14 overall, where is the right spot for him? were based on that reception. Just based on getting that to the reception threshold.

All right, Dave. Devontae Williams at 14 overall. Where is the right spot for him? I think it's got to be closer to the end of round two. So maybe 10 spots later than where he's going. And look, I get it. It's almost the same argument for Burrow, where I love the talent.

I think he's great. This is where he veers from Burrow. It's opportunity. I think Melvin Gordon is still going to get a good opportunity. Heath talked yesterday about how it's eventually going to be Javante as the lead back there, but it could be on a 60-40 situation. They should be getting a lot more work than that. And it's still going to be an offense that I think is going to lean toward Russell Wilson. And they're going to put the ball in the air more than Russ did in the past. So I'm a little bit worried about just a crunch of opportunity for Javante Williams to take him at this point. But 10 spots later, I can't really fight you on it. I did make a change in my rankings where in full PPR, I put Saquon Barkley ahead of Javante Williams. I went there, I've done it. I'm starting to get a little more comfortable and confident in Saquon being back to his old self this year. And I'm still worried about Javante sharing with Melvin Gordon. You know what bugs me about this Broncos

backfield split, whether it's 60, 40, 70, 30, whatever it is, we have no idea who the passing downs guy is going to be. And we have no idea who the passing downs guy is going to be, and we have no idea who the goal line guy is going to be. And they're probably going to split that. So that's just going to be annoying. They split those roles last year too. So it'll take a coaching philosophy change for that to actually be defined this year. All right, Cam Akers going 29th overall.

I moved him down even more this morning just thinking about it and going back and looking at his numbers previously and i know that we all want to have that lead back in la but he looked terrible in the playoffs i need to see it i've said it now like eight times this offseason here's the night i need to see him look better than he did when he was playing in 2020 because when he played in 2020, he really wasn't that great. He didn't even have that opportunity to be the dominant Rams running back then. Only a couple of games north of 15 PPR fantasy points as a rookie. I know that we're excited about the Rams offense. I just think they're going to keep

throwing it because they're not going to have a running back that they're comfortable handing off to. And I'd be surprised if acres was that throwing it because they're not going to have a running back that they're comfortable handing off to. And I'd be surprised if Akers was that guy because he's just not as explosive as other running backs that they've had in the past. He's going way too soon. Okay. And I've got him end of round five. I'm not getting him. Don't want him.

I do really want the lead running back for the Rams. The question is, is he going? I don't know if that I do really want the lead running back for the Rams. The question is, is he going... Yeah, I don't know if that's going to exist. So Daryl Henderson last year, before he got hurt... He was great. Let me see. He was great, but I just want to see if I can get his touches. Because I am looking at the wrong document right now,

so that is not going to help me. I'll look for it while you keep going. Yeah, I think he was something like a top 15 running back. Maybe somewhere around 13. Sorry. Keep going. Yeah, I think he was something like a top 15 running back, maybe somewhere around 13. Sorry. Okay, yeah, so he had... Adam brings the podcast to a halt while he looks for some stats that he's going to change around.

Okay, here we go, here we go. First 10 games, he was the number 14 running back per game, and he averaged, he was on pace for 241 carries and 46 catches. So 14.2 carries per game and a little more than two catches per game. Like two and a half catches per game. So is that realistic for Akers? Sonny Michel averaged only six carries per game when Henderson was healthy at the beginning

for the first 10 games of the season. Have the Rams learned to use multiple running backs? What do you think? I mean, let's not get philosophical. Do you think 14 carries and two and a half catches is realistic? I even think that the pick of Kyron Williams points to that because he is specifically a passing downs running back. So you don't so

you don't think acres is going to have 16 to 17 touches per game no okay okay and even if he did based on what we saw in the playoffs that might get you 40 yards well yeah but come on i mean let's why don't we use the full season of 2020 where he was obviously a lot better he was also returning from an achilles injury. Really that exactly. All right. So Dan, how about your, the three that you have in round four,

Antonio Gibson, Josh Jacobs, Travis ETN on your bus list. Yeah. So let me start with ETN because I think though he's last right now in ADP at 45.13, he's a super riser. If you just read any Twitter,

read any articles, anything, you see all the hype building already around ETN. It's going to, that ADP is going to skyrocket. But for me with ETN, he was not a player I love coming out of college as a prospect. I want to start by saying that he's a smaller running back prospect. I don't see him ever as a full carry load type of running back, no matter what team he's on. So that already gives me a halt because as that ADP rises, I want somebody who's going to

be a workhorse type back. Then you add in the fact of, of Doug Peterson's now coaching with the Jaguars. What do we remember from Doug Peterson's days with the Eagles? A lot of different running blacks paying a lot of different roles. We all were like, Oh, what would happen here is miles. Sanders is going to take over. No, there was different running backs coming in different third down type of backs. And even in the red zone, there were smaller backs that he would use. So now you add back to James Robinson, James Robinson, who's already running and already looks like he's recovering way ahead of schedule. I read, uh, from, I think it was Jaguars GM who said they think he's going to be ready

for training camp. It's not a guarantee, but even if you're on that kind of timeline, that's a good thing. So you got Robinson in the mix. I actually really like, uh, who they added as well. Uh, right now, Snoop, why am I blanking? The kid from Ole Miss, Snoop Conner from Ole Miss. I really like him. If it wasn't for some off-field stuff,

I think he would have been drafted higher. He's a very talented back. So I think he'll even work into the mix and they have Agnew coming back who has a little bit of talent as well. So I just feel like this is a team that is going to use multiple backs. We have a team that has a really bad offensive line

that didn't improve their offensive line at all this. Oh, no, they got Brandon Scherf. They did get Brandon Scherf. I'm sorry. They didn't improve at the spots they needed to improve, which were the tackle spots. This was my opinion, at least. I thought they should have drafted Evan Neal or potentially one of the other tackles there early. So they did get Scherf, you're right.

But outside of Scherf, and that was really a replacement for Norwell. It'll be an upgrade for sure, but I don't know if it's going to revamp that line. And it's also an offense that we know, at least in the Doug Peterson days, was super pass-heavy. In my mind, he's a pass-heavy. They're going to be a pass-heavy offense, especially with the weapons they added on the outside at receiver. And I know that you could scoff at them. None of them are big names, but it's a lot of volume there at receiver. And there's a lot of different players in the mix there.

So I just don't really fully see the upside for him as a non-workhorse, offensive line that's still not quite there, a coach who's used multiple backs a lot in the past, and an offense that I think is going to be pass-heavy from a volume standpoint. How do you compare ETN's talent to James Cook's talent? That's a great question. I think I would actually say that I would prefer James Cook to ETN for a lot of reasons. I think he's a better route runner for sure.

And he can line up in multiple ways. And even if you look at how they used him, how Lawrence used him, uh, in Clemson as a, as a receiving back, it was more traditional receiving routes. It wasn't really the same dynamic stuff. And as an actual runner, I actually think he's a much better runner, James Cook. I know this is an unpopular take, but if you watch the tape on Cook, he's really, really good at processing. Why is Dalvin Cook one of the best pure runners in the NFL?

Because he can set up his blocks and he can read the cutback lanes perfectly and he gets right into those lanes. I saw a lot of that with James Cook. They didn't use him a lot like that, Georgia. I don't really know why, personally. I guess it's the size issue, which you'll have to bulk up the NFL level. But as far as natural runner, I did not ever feel like etn was a really good processing running back i just thought he was a really good speed guy i i i wonder if the reason why they didn't use cook more like that at georgia

is because they had other running backs that they could use like that georgia including zamir white right i who will probably talk about when we get to josh jacobs i love the potential of etn in a pass catching role and i think that's a team that's going to end up throwing a lot and trevor lawrence knows this guy trust this guy worked with this guy right for a long time 85 catches in two seasons together at clemson i i'm expecting etn to have a massive role in the passing game and i'm hoping that that's what carries him to a good fantasy total especially in in PPR leagues. I'm okay with taking him a little bit later, like right around 50th overall. That's basically where I'm at as well. I am okay in full PPR and half PPR taking him.

It's not like he's on a – I don't feel as strong as I do maybe about somebody like Tevin Singletary, but I just think this ADP is going to only skyrocket. So by the time this ends, he's going to end up being in the 30s. All right. So especially if James Robinson is going to start skyrocket. So by the time this ends, he's going to end up being in the 30s. All right. So especially if James Robinson is going to start the year on the pop list, then it's going to skyrocket. The only that you gave a very good explanation,

I would just push back a little bit on the Doug Peterson thing because we did see when Jordan Howard, I believe it was, got hurt in Miles Sanders' rookie year. Miles Sanders averaged almost 20 touches per game in the last six games of the year. It took an injury. When they traded for Jay Ajayi, he started out a little bit slow, and then he was getting, you know,

he had some 15 carry games. So I think it's like, if he had a good running back, he showed that he would use him that way. But he just didn't really have that guy. Nothing really about ETN's profile to me projects as one of those kind of guys, though. That's the problem. I agree with that.

So let me go to the other guys then. Antonio Gibson and Josh Jacobs both going in round four. Gibson is running back 19 since May 1st. Josh Jacobs is running back 22. And is it just role? They're kind of similar, I think. They're very similar though i do so for we'll start with gibson who really it's tough to know how much of last year was an issue was the injury

and how was him playing through an injury was it not fully healthy and how much of it is who he is because really if you look back to his breakout quote-unquote rookie rookie season it was a lot of uh touchdown it was a touchdown heavy dependent score at the end. Like his fantasy score was very touchdown heavy. And now you look at him last year, he was what? 15th in yards after contact per attempt. That's supposed to be his calling cart from a talent standpoint, yards after contact per attempt. He's not really much of a breakaway runner.

It hasn't been in the last season. And so I don't love the talent there. Then you look at the role there. They drafted Brian Robinson. I think that says something. They made a huge effort to re-sign JD McKissick. So I think that really cuts into his upside there from receiving volume standpoint. And so I just don't really see where, where is he, where is he breaking out or not even

breaking out? Where is he returning value on this ADP? Is it going to have to be, he scores a ton of touchdowns and he's used a lot in the red zone. Then Washington's going to have to get to the red zone a lot with Carson Wentz. And we mentioned Brandon Sheriff just now, because we talked about him going over to Jacksonville. That was a great point, Adam, but the team that lost him was the Washington commanders and the two guys that they've tried to replace this off season from a offensive line standpoint,

Trey Turner and Andrew Norwell. These are guys that have been cut. These are guys that are, could be potentially washed. And they're two of the starting guys on that offensive line. Last year, Sam Cosme was not very good as a rookie at right tackle. Charles Leno's their left tackle. That's really bad. I like Chase Rullier a lot. They have one of the best centers, probably a top 10 center, but that's not enough for me to get behind a case where a guy's going to have to be really a red zone scorer for you and a heavy volume guy if you want him to return on this ADP. And you just basically feel the same way about Josh Jacobs. Josh Jacobs has had a terrible offensive line, two straight years.

He's got more competition. I don't know who they're going to use in the passing game. You know, it was, it was really weird, but before Kenyon Drake got hurt, he was splitting with Kenyon Drake in the passing game. And you look at Josh Jacobs production last year and his,

he finished really strong and was after Kenyon Drake's the passing game. And you look at Josh Jacobs production last year and his, he finished really strong and was after Kenyon Drake's injury. Right. And now you've got a new head coach. You've got more running backs in the mix. You've got a head coach who's always had a designated third down back basically. So am I making the case that you were going to make most mostly, but it's even worse for me with Josh Jacobs,

because you have a coach who there is for, we know for sure that they're going to use a lot of different running backs. We also know for sure that they're not like leaning on one in the red zone. The Patriots were really finicky when it came to who was getting those red zone touches. And it's really not, I mean, Kenyon Drake will be wrecked. They added Samir white, who I love that wasn't for the ACL tears. He would have been a second round, third round traffic from a talent standpoint. They also added Brandon Bolden, who we know will somehow factor in and steal stuff.

And Amir Abdullah, who actually looked really good in a receiving role for the Panthers last year. Small volumes, small sample size. I get it. But as far as what Josh McDaniels probably saw from Abdullah there, as far as route running goes, I feel like he's going to find a role for him too. So to me, you're like you said, bad offensive line, potential, not potential, not be used on passing downs, potential potential not even be used always in the red zone also a guy in josh jacobs who i know was a first round nfl draft pick but really hasn't looked up to that level at all at any point in his career i know he's talked about the strong stretch but as far as just a pure talent standpoint i haven't seen it so i think he did his rookie year he's never been a top 12 running back on ppr points per game. Right. Okay, but where he has been 15th, 13th, and 14th.

So, yeah, he's been very close. And that's the thing. It's like you were... It's compiled stats. You called him a bust last year, and you made a good case. And you also pointed out that he's usually better in wins than losses, and that was a concern for you last year. Well, they're going to be better this year, I think.

They're in a tough division, but they look good. He reminds me a little bit of Jarvis Landry. He's that Landry every year people didn't want to draft him and every year he would outperform his ADP. And I just wonder, you haven't named anyone that for sure is a serious threat to Jacobs.

You could make the case for Amir Abdullah. You could. You could make the case Brandon Bolden, Zamir White, Kenyon Drake. Not to be like the featured back, just to take an annoying amount of snaps. I know, but at the same time, it's like, it's Amir Abdullah.

He is still Josh Jacobs. He still is going to have the opportunity. What are we saying about Brandon Bolden and all these backs that were stealing touches from all the Patriots? Brandon Bolden was not stealing touches until guys got hurt. Not often, yeah.

Right. Guys would get hurt and he would have a game, you know, he would come in more of a special teams ad for sure. And I wonder if Abdul is going to be the same thing. Like I'd be a little worried to overrate what those two can do. Can they contribute to the run game? Yes.

But I think they also might be there to help on special teams. There's a lot to dislike about Josh Jacobs, but I do feel like he's, he got counted out last year and he was a solid number two running back. Um, but what did this, what is also, what is the team telling us?

Right. Cause they didn't pick up his rookie rookie option. That's not a great sign either. Yeah. So, so, but if he's, he's the 20,

what'd I say? That was take one 22nd running back off a lot of injuries. Is that really a problem though? He's the 22nd running back off the board. Yeah. I mean, but you're in a, but again, you're in a range. Look, we're talking about what it's not. In my mind, at least, it's not about comparing him to the running backs going against him in this range, though I would take a lot of those guys.

You're taking him over Terry McLaurin. You're taking him over Darren Waller. You're taking him over DJ Moore, taking him over Marquise Brown, Mike Williams. I just feel like there's no way i can make a case to take somebody like this who i don't see the path for them outscoring any of those guys really for him outscoring any of those guys the fact that he's a running back and there is and you need running backs i get it you need to start them it's a lot different if it's you're starting two running but two wide receivers one running back in two or three

flexes. Man, his value gets pushed down in something like that. But that's not the case here. Pretty much every league, everybody starts two running backs. People might turn their nose up at Josh Jacobs as a guy who's got potential to be a top-ten running back, but no one would say that he's a bad number-two fantasy running back. I actually like him and Antonio Gibson ahead of the ADPs on NFC. But he does have the potential to be a bad number- fantasy running back i actually like him and antonio gibson ahead of the adps on nfc but he does have the potential to be a bad number two running back if he does if he

catches 20 passes and he's gonna have he has to be their red zone back to return and i don't know who else could be that guy he'll start at the beast right, let's talk about wide receivers here. We're 50 minutes, so here we go. We talked about... Oh, you don't have any wide receivers. You kind of have wide receivers, Dan. You have Michael Thomas, DK Metcalf. These are my secondary bus lists. That's why they're followed by a question mark

because I can make a case for or against them. All right, Dave, I know you wanted to talk about Brandon brandon iuk he's going 97th what do you have against iuk i don't know how effective he'll be in an offense with a russian quarterback when he's not even he's not the best receiver and he might not even be the third best pass cat he's not the third best he is the third best pass catcher i'll settle on it sometime but we know that debo's better we know that kittle's betteryuk is going to be the type of receiver who will have five good weeks in fantasy. You're not going to know when they're coming. I think he's closer to round 10.

That's Brandon Iyuk, and he's going in round 8-ish, 8-9. Michael Thomas, the draft range is just so wide with him. You could see him in the fourth round. You could see him in the 10th round. But he's going 73rd overall. Really? I'd be the bust there. I just think a player has missed this much time with injury.

There's way too much risk in his profile, in my opinion, to be going in that range. I feel like that should be more of a 10th round range, personally. I know he has the name. I know he has the name. I know he has the past production with Drew Brees, who's no longer there. But I just think there's a lot of risk baked into his profile for that area of the draft.

Isn't the reward baked in, though, too? Of course, yeah. That's why he's being drafted that high. It's a boom-bust type pick. I just think that it might be more likely to bust. It's a question mark. I took him on Monday and Tuesday in the drafts that week. I know. You keep taking pick. I just think that it might be more likely to bust. It's a question mark. I took him on Monday and Tuesday in the drafts that week. I know.

You keep taking him. I keep seeing you taking him. Where are you taking him? In this spot? I think I took him 60th. Oof. Well, I don't think he was going to. First of all, they're both three receiver leagues.

You have to start three receivers and a flex. And PPR. One of them was full PPR. The second one was ppr so taking him 60th overall in in that format i don't think was uh too bad michael thomas i took oh no wait okay i'm sorry i took him 58th in the half ppr three receiver league and i don't remember where i took him in the other one i want to say i took him at the end of round six. So that'd be 72nd? But I may have taken him at the end of round four.

I think it was the end of round six. So I had the first pick, but I guess it doesn't really matter. So you took him with the first pick in round five in one of our magazine drafts. The one that we did on Tuesday? Yes, which is full PPR. So I took him 49th. Can I make my case against the name on my list that we did on Tuesday yes okay which is full PPR so I took him 49th

can I make my case against the name on my list that we didn't talk about that's a hot name and is even on Dave's breakout list yeah okay that's Pat Friermuth so let me start by saying absolutely love Pat Friermuth from a talent standpoint I think he's the best of that tight end group that's come out of Penn State loved him at Penn State love State. Love them now. My case against Friar Muth right now, who's going 60 picks ahead of Gerald Everett, who I would take right now over Pat Friar Muth. If I had to take, they were both on the board, I would take Everett over Friar Muth. Is entirely situation-based. My favorite bet of the year is Steelers under seven and a half games. I think you all should get join me on that. I think this offense is going to be an absolute disaster. It doesn't matter who's starting Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett.

Kenny Pickett is not ready to play at the NFL level. They have not done nearly enough to upgrade that offensive line for starters. So you could be looking at an offense that is just completely dysfunctional from a passing game standpoint, going up against Baltimore Ravens defense twice a year, going up against the Bengals improved defense twice a year, going against that really improved Browns defense. They actually have according to to Sharp Football Analysis, which I think does a really good schedule analysis

because they base it on Vegas win projected totals instead of last year's win losses, which to me is a much better indicator. The Steelers have the sixth hardest schedule going into this season. So you factor all that in. And then, even through all of that, it's not like there's some easy path to volume

like we have with Cole Komet, who I'm not a huge fan of, but I like more because of the volume upside. We have Chase Claypool in that offense. We have Deontay Johnson. We have George Pickens, who Dave talked about earlier, who I love. I thought it was maybe the best receiver coming out of this draft. I think there's a case to be made that he has a non-zero chance to be the best receiver in that draft class overall. Sounds a bit crazy, but when you watch him, you see it. So there's a ton of options and even Najee Harris who factors into the passing game. So I don't see the volume there and I don't

see the, and I, and you also had Ben Roethlisberger leaving that offense who loved his tight end. So to me, I just can't, I can't see the case for him. Oh, I look at him as a touchdown or touchdown heavy tight end. And I think that's what he was last year. He was big time in the red zone and that's what helped carry him to double-digit PPR points per game from week eight on. And I think he can be a little more explosive than what he showed last year. I think Roethlisberger held him back a little bit. I especially am looking forward to Friermuth when Pickett starts, because I think Pickett will take some more chances that Trubisky won't. But I think both of those guys will lean on the tight end as an easier target for them to hit over the middle um then then not so i'm i'm okay with him going right around 10th tight end off the board

it's not somebody that i'm super excited about but i think he knew better than what he did last year is that also not though a store historically speaking a range of the draft where you really don't find too many tight end breakouts and and it's almost like you kind of are better off just... What range of the draft? Really in that 10th tight end off the board range, that 10th through 14th tight end off the board range. How many breakouts do we ever find there? I don't have it by ADP and where they...

I don't have it by where they rank among tight ends, but in the last five years, 50%. Okay, here you go. In the last four seasons, 50% of them were round 12 or later. So no, actually not round 10. None of them have been in round 10. It's usually the later guys, right?

In many cases, in some shower leagues are even on your waiver wire. And then you scoop them up when you see the volume start to increase or you see them break out with some. So I just not a range. I look for my tight end and I just, I just don't see the path for him being one of these breakouts. All right, guys, let's finish with a turbo round of emails. Fantasy football at cbsi.com fantasy football at cbsi.com.

That's the letter. I, this email is from Bradley. Adam, you are 100% correct about the next Monday controversy. If next Monday meant the upcoming Monday, then what is the point of including the next? All it does is convolute the request. That being said,

yeah, the three of us actually were the three who interpreted it as the following Monday. That being said, I'm having a hard time understanding why Javante Williams has been exalted as a top 10 dynasty pick. Meanwhile, ETN is a fifth rounder.

I would love some discussion on what Williams has done to deserve to be elevated so highly while averaging about 12 points per game last year when not even a year ago, ETN was squarely ahead. Well, I don't know that ETN was squarely ahead. And I also don't know the reference of ET squarely ahead, but, um, and I also don't know

the reference of ETN being a fifth rounder in dynasty, but yeah, but should they be that far apart? ETN was drafted ahead of him in the NFL draft. So Bradley's got a point and he's also right about the Monday thing, but yeah, anyway, go ahead. Well, I mean, Dave, Dave really broke it down. I thought earlier with giovante you know where i stand on etn as a prospect so i can see the for me i can see the gap because i think there's workhorse upside with giovante and i just don't see that upside with etn okay i agree and i probably had it the other way last year probably had etn coming into the season or training camp anyway before etN got hurt. Probably ETN

ahead of Gervonta. To be fair though, Dave, your scouting report on Gervonta was one of the more glowing ones I've read about any of the backs you've done. Any of the players. It was my favorite one you've done and I felt like that was the one that turned me on to him and I started watching him a lot more. You were pretty high on Gervonta as well from a talent

standpoint. I want to see more. Yeah, exactly. But it's a dynasty. Next one from Trevor. Dear Omar, Ben, Marty, and Jacob. I'm terrible at these always. Come on.

Omar Navarro. Oh, no. Yeah. Wait, Omar. Go ahead. Omar, Ben, Marty, and Jacob. No, no. There's no Marty.

This is the stupid Ozark. I thought the ending was unbelievably dumb. You're the worst. Really? A car crash that ended up meaning nothing? I seriously might as well mute you. I might watch that show someday.

Okay, you're right. That was really poor form what you just did. I don't want to be a spoiler guy i just feel like that at what point do you stop this has been a long discussion with me and my group of friends when is a spoiler not a spoiler can i talk about star wars ending you have to give you have to give a year is there is there a range they're cut off yeah like two like a like a year or two but you you uh there is you got to give a uh you got to give a heads up you got to give it i'm about to spoil so like sopranos you can okay okay that's fair you know always give a warning okay yeah all right this email is from trevor trevor just finished listening to the sleepers episode

he heard we mentioned we mentioned garrett wilson and johan dots and what about jalen tolbert why is he not getting any sleeper love he warrants it he he should get some sleeper love particularly as a wide out who you might be able to draft way late around 11 plus and be helpful for your fantasy team until gallop comes back and maybe there's a crack of a chance for him to be helpful even after gallop comes back maybe gallop doesn't ever return to form, something like that. I would consider him a disposable fantasy pick, someone that you're going to take and probably put on your bench week one. And if he blows up in week one, then you'll start him week two, week three, until you realize that he can't do it again. He's a good talent, but man, is he blocked for a long time of eventually breaking out and being

like the number one or number two receiver in Dallas. It's it's it's it's a crowded path to get there. AJ in the chat says from a person who has three episodes left in Ozark, y'all are dirty, just dirty. Spoiler alert, you guys. Now, listen, hold on. Hold on. Before we get I really know no one's dirty, but it really was not a spoiler. What he said. Yeah, that was nothing. not a spoiler. What he said changes nothing. Changes nothing. I agree that changes nothing.

Yeah. So he's dumb for saying it, but it was still bad. Yeah. Dumb is not the word I would use. Go on. Alex from Chicago. Dear Brian, Mike, Dick, and Lance. Those are Bears linebackers.

Bang. Keeper question. You can't get a Bears one by Dave. What are you, crazy? Go ahead. Travis Etienne in the sixth or Jalen Waddell in. Bang. Keeper question. You can't get a Bears one by Dave. What are you, crazy? Go ahead. Travis Etienne in the sixth or Jalen Waddell in the seventh. PPR League. Waddell.

Waddell. Okay. From Gabe in the state named for the Great River. Yeah. Oh, the Rio Grande. Sleepy Hollow, New York. Is that going to be New Mexico or Texas? I should probably know where the Rio Grande is, right?

The state isn't named for the Great River. Oh, that's true. So what state is named for the Great River? I'm Googling right now. While he's Googling, can I say this? A grand doesn't even mean a great. It means big. So this is what happens when I try to think on the air. While he's Googling great grand doesn't even mean great it means big so this is what

happens when i try to think on the air you know while he's googling this let me just say this let me say this it's name for what s's mississippi no that's it that's named for a great oh mississippi river google says yeah mississippi river would be the great river right let me say one thing adam real quick i've made back-to-back road trips up north these past few weekends, and as I came back, I saw signs for Sleepy Hollow. I debated driving through and adding to my trip just to see if there were actual farms next to your house.

I've still remained skeptical. There are not farms next to my house. There is a very famous farm called Stone Barn. We keep hearing about this. It is a place where you can eat dinner. It is one of those places where it's something like 250 to 300 bucks per person before drinks and you get you know all your courses or whatever but you don't i will i will never go there uh it's skeptical okay from uh gabe oh gabe's question is written in haiku form. Oh. He wrote, Mixon, Eckler.

That's borderline there. Catch balls but should rank lower. Cause fewer TDs? That's such a convoluted haiku. I love it, though. Mixon, Eckler. He thinks Eckler should rank lower than Mixon because he's going to score fewer touchdowns. Is he?

Eckler should... What is that based on? Yeah, I mean... The difference in the offenses? I think that they're comparable. That he would lose his goal line role or something? No. Yeah, I don't think so.

I don't think so either. Can't get behind this one in PPR. This is from Jimmy Pribble. Dear Earl, Ricky, Cedric, and Priest. Priest Holmes, Ricky Williams, Cedric Benson. Earl Campbell. Earl Campbell. Yeah, and they are?

Longhorns. There it is. 12-team money league where we keep two players each year. They move up one round. It can be kept at a maximum of three years. It is half PPR. Okay. Jonathan Taylor in round one.

He's the 12th pick, by the way. Okay. So he's keeping two. Jonathan Taylor in round one. Mark Andrews in round three. Justin Herbert in round nine. Cam Akers in round 10. Trey Lance in round 14.

I'm on Akers and Jonathan Taylor. Then I'm not worrying about running back for the rest of my draft. I think I'm probably, I agree on Taylor. Herbert in round nine is pretty sweet. Wait a minute. If you're picking 12th in round one, that's what he said? Yep. That means he's picking last in round three with Andrews.

I'm changing my mind. Take Andrews and Taylor. I like it. If not, yeah. If it's not Akers, it's Andrews for me. I do really like Akers round 10, though. That's pretty nice. I like Herbert in nine. You can always redraft him a few rounds earlier. I'm trying to see.

Where does the Rio Grande go through? It's south-central Colorado. New Mexico? I would think it would yeah probably i don't know how you've been out west dan you're always doing things but i'm a huge west guy yeah i love it out west huge west i am a huge fan of that west i am i wish i lived there yeah it goes through new mexico and i think it does go through texas. But of course, it's not the Great River. It's just a really good river.

Yeah, it's a big river. It's the big river. Alright, good show, guys. That's it. That's all I got. We'll talk to you tomorrow. Actually, we do have a bonus episode tomorrow. We do not have an episode on Monday. Instead, we're doing a show on Friday. We're going to talk about players 13 through 24 in our consensus rankings. We'll talk to you then. See you

later.