Fantasy Football Today - BUY or SELL Second Half Breakouts; Brees & Fitzpatrick Updates (02/04 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: February 4, 2020

We wrap up our Super Bowl coverage with an assessment of Damien Williams' 2020 value and an update from Heath on the Chiefs victory. We then have updates on Ryan Fitzpatrick, Drew Brees, Dak Prescott and Greg Olsen in our news and notes. Fitzpatrick is returning to MIA, so what does this mean for Devante Parker and Mike Gesicki? We finish by taking a deep dive into players with strong finishes to the 2019 season including Ryan Tannehill, Kenyan Drake, Jarvis Landry and some players who aren't former Dolphins! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. We are just about ready to let go of Special Event 54. Just a little bit more to talk about from the big game. But we also have a little bit of everything to get into as we start to turn that page to 2020 fantasy football season. We're going to talk about some dynasty risers and fallers. Some buy or sell with second half studs. Guys that played well in the second half of the season. And then we're going to decide whether or not they're going to be able to keep it up into the first half and beyond in 2020. Plus some news and notes about some quarterbacks.

Breeze fits magic among them. But this is it. Heath Cummings is back. I'm here. Your team won Super Bowl 54. You basically had the best week of your life. Special event 54 champions. Go ahead. Here we champions. Go ahead.

Here we go. Go ahead, Heath. This is your time to shine. Yeah, I don't have... I'm not going to gloat or anything. It was a weird experience. I've never watched the Chiefs in the Super Bowl before. And I had, depending on...

It changed throughout the game, but 25 to 30 people at my house watching it with me. A lot of them were small children. And I know at times they were running into the room and making sounds. And I just didn't notice them at all. I was so like locked in and depressed for like half of the game. Right. But locked into the game.

And then when they made, when the comeback happened at the end, I hesitate to even say they made the comeback because it happened in such a weird way. It really. But we've seen them do this already. But it wasn't this bunch of other times this season and twice in the postseason. And I don't like this is not to poopoo. I love the entire experience. But they fell behind because Patrick Mahomes was playing arguably the worst game of his NFL career.

Oh, my goodness. It looked like he was hurt. They kind of came back because San Francisco didn't put the game away like his NFL career. Oh my goodness. It looked like he was hurt. And then they kind of came back because San Francisco didn't put the game away like they could have. I mean, I re-watched the game on Monday. First thing I did when I woke up, reheated some brisket,

watched the Super Bowl again. That sounds like a good way to spend a Monday. And I didn't realize, like, you go back to that moment in the fourth quarter where there's nine minutes left. Yeah. The 49ers have not yet punted in the game and they have second and five and all they've got it like they just had to finish and they didn't yeah i'm glad they didn't and and my home has made a few plays in the fourth quarter but i really like damian williams got robbed you thought he should have been the mvp

yep we talked about that yesterday and we will talk about damian williams a little bit more in a second here but ben Schrager is here. Ben, you were there when Heath was watching the Super Bowl, so you got to witness the end of Heath's greatest week ever. I was. It was not going to be the greatest week ever for a solid half, maybe even three quarters. Three quarters, right. It got well into the fourth quarter that they were down by 10 points. So good to have you here.

And Ben Gretsch from the Pacific Northwest is joining us as well. Ben, a Damian Williams truther that you guys will remember from back in the preseason. We will get to talk about him and give you a chance to talk about Damian Williams as well as a lot of other dynasty stuff. Ben, how did you like Super Bowl 54? Yeah, I mean, I thought it was interesting. He did a good job recapping it. I think if Williams scores that first touchdown on the option that Mahomes kept it,

he's definitely the MVP, right? So, I mean, it was a fun game to watch it was good to see williams continue his hot run unfortunately he didn't do enough of that during fantasy season but i think we we kind of got a little bit of a justification from week 17 through the playoffs of why damian williams was a second or third round pick this year so um yeah it was it was a good game it was very entertaining so i'm gonna throw it right back to you, Ben. Is your boy Damian Williams, and look, he was my boy too. I loved him a lot, and I was willing to take him as high as round two at one point during the preseason.

But is he going to be your boy again this coming draft season? What round are you looking at taking Damian Williams as of now, this moment, early February 2020? Probably won't be on him as much. I mean, part of that is because I lost a decent chunk of money investing in him this year, and sometimes we overcorrect to those things. But he's a year older. He was already pretty old because of a slow start to his career before he got a chance to be a lead back. I also think the Chiefs are locked to bring in running back help. I mean, LeSean McCoy is probably not going to be a lead back. I also think the Chiefs are locked to bring in running back help. I mean, LeSean McCoy is probably not going to be back. They like Daryl Williams, who got hurt, who I

think will be back. Darwin Thompson never really hit, though, as their rookie. I think they'll almost certainly draft another rookie who will compete with Damian Williams. So I don't know that kind of the way that 2019 played out and out and williams was the the lead back at times but also banged up and they were they were fine sitting him when he wasn't healthy i don't know that that will be much different in 2020 i think we'll see multiple backs for kansas city unless they invested really early in a rookie running back maybe the second or third round then we might even see that guy be the lead back um yeah i still really like his talent but i just don't think that he's going to have as little competition next year. I will say the good thing, I think it may be similar competition

as this last year, because the good thing for Damian Williams is a bad thing for the Chiefs. They've got like $16 million in cap space, and they've got Chris Jones they've got to pay, and he's probably going to make close to $20 million per year. I don't know if they're going to pay him. They probably cut loose with Sammy Watkins to free up enough money to pay him. If they want to, they're going to extend Mahomes. And then they'll have some other questions. They've got a lot of their defensive backfield is going to be a free agent. They're probably not guys that you pay.

So I would be surprised if the Chiefs use one of their first three picks on a running back with the other things they need and the lack of resources that they have to go get those things. I do think they have more hope in Darwin Thompson than Darwin Thompson gave us any reason to believe in his rookie year. I don't think walking into the season with Damian Williams, Darrell Williams, Darwin Thompson, and either a cheap,

cheap free agent or a day two or day three running back. Like that seems to me like the most likely outcome. And if that's the case, and I think Damian's worth a late third, early fourth round pick. So one of the things that I do to prepare my rankings is a self-mock draft. I'll do 12 spots. I'll make every pick. I don't share with anybody. And when I did it in non-PPR, Damian Williams went in the fifth round.

So it was even later than what I thought it would be. And I just, I got a lot of running backs ahead of him in my rankings. That's going to be the case. And when I drafted, a lot of running backs went in rounds one, two, and three, and he didn't make the cut for any of those in a non-PPR. In a PPR, I think it would be different. I think he would step up a little bit more. But I agree.

I think we're going to see that position in Kansas City be loaded with a bunch of running backs that could do just enough to keep Damian Williams from being a dominant player. Yeah, I think he could have been a value before the Super Bowl, but after the Super Bowl performance, all that bad taste that's in people's mouths isn't there as much with this huge performance. So he may not even be a value this year. He may end up going in the fourth round, which is way too rich for my blood.

Heath, you met Gard too rich for my blood. Heath, you met Gardner Minshew. Yeah. Would you like to tell us about it? There's not a lot to tell. I will tell you the thing, and I don't know, because you did too, Ben. I don't know. We met him

in a brewery. Gardner Minshew was not. It's Heath Cummings Heaven. Gardner Minshew was not partaking. He did a little interview with Peter King. He did take a picture with me and talk a little bit. The theme that I got from him was that I'm a serious football player. And everyone loved me my rookie year because of the mustache or the clothes

or all that stuff. And I don't think Gardner Minshew wants to be known for that. He seems pretty committed to establishing himself as a starting quarterback in the NFL. I'm excited to watch him do it. Do you have any sense yet on what his fantasy stock will be for the upcoming year if Nick Foles is gone, if they find a suitor to acquire Nick Foles from them

and take some of that contract away? Is he even draftable? I projected Gardner Minshew as the starting quarterback for 16 games of Jacksonville. Because if Nick Foles is there, then who cares? He was QB 17, one spot behind Daniel Jones, basically tied with him in the projections. And so I think in most leagues,

do top 20 quarterbacks get drafted? Yes. In our leagues, if I want him, I can probably take him in the very last round. I could probably pair up him, probably not Daniel Jones because of Azar, but there's, again, just like every other year, there are way more starting quarterbacks than we need.

Just for fun, we had, it was just a minute on Monday's podcast, Jimmy Garoppolo or Joe Burrow, and it was unanimous that we said Burrow. But let's throw Gardner Minshew in there too. Real quick, just names, no analysis. Burrow, assuming he's a Bengal. Minshew, Garoppolo, how do you rank them for 2020? And we're assuming Foles is not a jack let's assume foals is not in jacksonville and that minshu's their guy to start the year who do you

got first who you got second who you got third i'm gonna ask everybody minshu burrow garoppolo minshu burrow garoppolo ben gretch wow no i would have minshu last i i think even if he is the starter he would be one of the least likely quarterbacks to play 16 games. And we see a lot of quarterbacks, more than you think, not play 16 games. I mean, most seasons we see 45 to 50 quarterbacks make a start. So I would go Burrow, Garoppolo, and Minshew last. I think Burrow for the upside that he maybe could just take the lead by storm as a rookie. Garoppolo is a locked-in 16-game starter.

He just made the Super Bowl, and Minshew to me is a guy that I probably wouldn't draft in any league. I've got Minshew ahead of Garoppolo, but they are back-to-back in my rankings, and I've got them behind of guys that everybody loves, like Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold, Ryan Tannehill. Well, we've even got something on Ryan Tannehill to talk about on today's show. But first, just a quick plug that you can always watch us on YouTube.

YouTube.com slash Fantasy Football Today, all one word. So if you've downloaded, you've subscribed, maybe you've been a long-time listener, maybe you want to know what we look like. Maybe you want to see us in action. It may surprise you. Yeah, it's going to surprise you because, well, it might also blind you.

I posted a picture of Adam, and someone said, I never knew what he looked like in eight years of listening, and this is exactly what I thought he looked like. So sometimes it does happen where in your mind's eye, you've got his picture on how we look, and now you could watch us for real. And yeah, watch us on YouTube, youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. Are we ready to move past? Heath, you're never moving past Super Bowl 54.

You're going to live in this week forever. You did skip over the thing I was most excited to talk about. Which is? It was on the rundown. Which is? Meat. My meat. Let's talk about your meat.

Yeah, I woke up at 4 a.m. on Sunday, put a 13-pound brisket on, cooked it for about 12 hours or 10 hours, then wrapped it, then took it off, cut the point off, made burnt ends. And you're never perfectly happy, I don't think, with a brisket. But it was the best brisket I've ever made. I heard from a reliable source that it was pretty mediocre. It was the best brisket I've ever made. And I don't think anybody said that the burnt ends were mediocre. I'm just kidding. It was the best brisket I've ever made. And I don't think anybody said that the burnt ends were mediocre.

I'm just kidding. It was pretty unreal. I got to Heath's house at 3 p.m. Sunday just to witness the whole process. And I went to school in Houston for four years. And I had a lot of brisket. Yeah, sure. And none of which was as good as Heath's. I didn't have to put barbecue sauce on it.

That's usually a good sign, right? That was the thing I was going to say is I did put barbecue sauce out. I don't believe anyone opened it. No, it wasn't necessary. I think the entire brisket was eaten with no sauce. Is there any left? There's just a little bit left. I'm having brisket salad for lunch today.

I was asking if there was any left for a different reason than that. I was trying to, you know, angle my way in to try and, you know. You can have a bite. Yeah? Yeah. All right. I'm going to try and you know you you can have you can have a bite yeah yeah all right i'm gonna try heath's meat i'll let you guys know if it's as good as as ben trager says that it is uh yeah news and notes i'm just letting that hang out yes ryan fitzpatrick confirmed he'll be back with the

dolphins in 2020 and that means he's going to be reunited with Chan Gailey, who he's been with on two separate stints previously. So this is stint three in the same division. They were with the Bills from 2010 to 2012. They were with the Jets from 2015 to 2016. And here they are. The Dolphins couldn't find Don Correale or something like that. They couldn't find somebody older or closer to the grave than Chan Gailey.

Here he is. But, yeah, it almost sounds like they're trying to stick with Ryan Fitzpatrick for another full year, which is weird when you consider they have a top five pick. They can move anywhere they want to in the draft they can get to if they want them because they've got the the the draft picks to go up and get them but Fitzpatrick looks like he'll at least begin the season as a starter for Miami and we've seen some really great things from him I just I don't think there's anybody in this rookie class besides Burrow that you're drafting thinking I definitely want to start them week one of the rookie year and so sitting behind Brian Fitzpatrick for a year you're hoping it does

the same thing that it did for patrick mahomes um i mean ryan fitzpatrick's a really smart quarterback he went to harvard and so maybe he can i feel like that comes into every single conversation i trust trying to work it in yeah um i i think the most interesting thing about that whole situation like i'm glad glad Changela is coming back. I wonder what it does for Gesicki because he's always been a spread offense guy. He's not really had good production from his tight ends. No, but Gesicki is more receiver than tight end, and I think he started to really take that step in the second half of last season,

and there's definitely a chance for him to do it again. There's a chance to get him at a great value on draft day yeah i agree i think giziki being more of a receiver than tight end could mean he's used a lot more i love this for fitzmagic for fantasy this year in the second half of season he had six streamable matchups you know playing the jets the eagles teams like that yeah five of those six games over 25 fantasy points he's someone who i love to stream i know you guys love to stream i know you guys love to stream ben gretch how do you feel about this fitzmagic staying in miami move yeah and i agree with heath he's i think he's a perfect bridge quarterback to somebody like tua who especially if it is tua is coming back from the hip thing he's not going to be ready

to start week one so why not have ryan fitzpatrick back this year he was great late and late in the season like schrager said and i the biggest thing with fitzpatrick back this year? He was great late in the season, like Schrager said. And the biggest thing with Fitzpatrick that we all love is he threw downfield. He's willing to take shots. He's always done that, right? He did that in Tampa the year before. And so that was big for Devontae Parker, who I believe led the NFL in air yards in the second half of the season, finished top five over the course of the season.

Gesicki, I think, led all tight ends in the second half of the season um finished top five over the course of the season gosicki i think led all tight ends in the second half of the season in air yards heath makes a good point about gailey system not being tight end friendly but there was plenty of downfield volume and that helped these guys rack up receiving yardage it will be a little different with preston williams back he wasn't there in the second half of the season when when fitzpatrick was chucking the ball around but this should be a reasonably lucrative fantasy passing attack at least early in the season until some rookies ready to take over, assuming someone will in the second half of 2020. Yeah, I'm a big fan of this from the perspective of Devontae Parker, who I think is going to be a top 50 pick when it's all said and done.

Last year, five of his last seven games in PPR with at least 20 points. That's gorgeous. That's what you're looking for. So hopefully it continues. And when they do make the transition from Fitzpatrick to whoever it is, whether it's two or somebody else with a strong arm, because I figure it's going to be somebody with a strong arm that it'll be Justin Herbert, if not to a Tago Vailoa. I think Herbert's got a strong arm. I think it could help Devante Parker stay relevant for a long time. Could, could the addition of running backs in Miami submarine

all this if they go and they you know they spend a second round pick on you know Jonathan Taylor or somebody like behind what offensive line well I I would imagine that they would get an offensive lineman also in first or second round and maybe even in free agency they could add somebody else they know they have to add to that position they can't go into this year with it being as weak as it was last year well and it's like he's point about Kansas City this this team has so many other needs that if they take a running back early if they take a Jonathan Taylor in the second round I think that would be a major mistake I mean running back is more of a win now position they need to be drafting pillars they need to be drafting offensive tackles like you said they need to be drafting pass rushers and obviously probably a quarterback. So I think for them,

they're taking a long-term approach. They kind of broke things down for their whole roster and they need to fill so many holes. I don't expect them to make a big investment in running back personally. Remember when Drew Brees was a quarterback that the Dolphins were considering and they were scared off by his shoulder and he went to New Orleans worked out pretty well for Drew Brees nice long career in New Orleans for Drew Brees not so much the Dolphins they've been looking for a quarterback Brees says he's going to take about a month before making a decision when he comes back whether or not to come back whether he retires he did a thing for the Super Bowl where he did a live stream with Brett Favre and Joe Montana it's pretty interesting very X and O-E and he was drawing up plays.

It was pretty cool to watch. That was our first glimpse of looking at Drew Brees as an analyst, potentially, as somebody who's going to go and explain the game to us while he's covering one. First of all, if he comes back, top 10 quarterback? I had him 14th in the first round. Ooh, so you don't have him as a top 10 guy. He's in my top 10. He's in mine too.

He would be one of the quarterbacks I would try and just wait, wait, wait. Okay, he's my guy to start the season. Maybe I add a second quarterback with him. Well, and that will be the interesting thing is if you can do that, because I think last year he was like the fifth or sixth quarterback taken. If he's available as the 10th or 11th, I'm perfectly good with that strategy. If I have to take him in the eighth round as the sixth quarterback off the board,

he'll probably end up on my bus list. I don't like that. There are too many other quarterbacks. I'm taking Kyler Murray well ahead of him. I'm taking Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson well ahead of him. I'd prefer Josh Allen. They're close for me, and it's just because I'm not sure how effective

Josh Allen is ever going to make it as a passer. Is he always going to be this guy who's right around 200 yards? And he's going to give us some good rushing numbers as well. But I just feel like he's not going to give us enough as a passer to make him a great fantasy quarterback. But it's really close between those two. And I get it that people want to get running quarterbacks, and that's kind of the trend. So they'll gladly take somebody like that ahead of Drew Brees. Michael Thomas' value, if Drew Brees is gone, what do you think?

How bad is it going to be? I don't think it takes a huge hit. His yards per target was up when Drew Brees was not his quarterback. Isn't that weird? Which is very strange. He got all the targets, though, in those games. So assuming he continues to get all the targets, he's still my number one wide receiver.

I don't think he's a top four overall pick in PPR, but he is still my number one wide receiver. Heath, where do you have him in ppr michael thomas he's your number two overall number two overall i'm expecting breeze to come back to the saints i i would like i would downgrade him a little in the overall rankings he'd probably still be my number one wide receiver even without breeze unless the report we heard i believe it was jay glazer say they view tasem hill still as their quarterback of the future if it's tasemaysom Hill as the starting quarterback and Michael Thomas, then I'm out. I would imagine that they're expecting Breeze to come back and Taysom Hill to stay and they just let Teddy Bridgewater go and Bridgewater will try and get a chance to compete with

another team. And if Drew Breeze retires, okay, it's going to be Bridgewater and Taysom Hill and that'll be the competition that the Saints will have. Weeks two through seven without Drew Breeze, it was Teddy Bridgewater as the quarterback in New Orleans. Michael Thomas averaged 21.8 PPR fantasy points per game. With Brees, it was 23.7 PPR fantasy points per game. Fantasy managers will take either of those averages. Those are pretty good numbers.

Michael Thomas is a huge catch magnet, target magnet. I think the only way that that number comes down, and Ben Gretsch, call me out on this if you disagree, is if they add a really good, really polished pass catcher in the draft or free agency, and I think they need one. I think that they can upgrade from Ted Ginn or Traequan Smith, if not both of them, and add something else to this offense. Well, I would go a little bit of a different way with this too.

It was great to see that Michael Thomas was so productive when Breeze was out. But I also think that was a pretty small sample. And if if we're going to look at that and hope that that will extrapolate over 16 games, it's probably going to make me fade him because I don't know that that was enough of a sample or enough evidence for me to really trust that Thomas can do what he's done with Breeze without him. Because the last two years, Thomas has the two highest catch rates in NFL history for a wide receiver with at least 100 targets. And really not even close to anyone else. His 85% in 2018 was eight percentage points higher than the previous record, which was 77%.

And then this past year, I think he was up over 80 again or right at like 79 very very efficient right so if we have a different quarterback in there i'm a little bit concerned that if you know somebody who's not delivering it is on time that's going to impact potentially uh his catch rate which is obviously would impact the receptions and if it's a little bit less of a pass happy offense it might impact the overall targets as well. I think it would really limit his ceiling and his ability to be so efficient, even though he was, or even despite how good he was with Bridgewater and that sample. Well, it's a little bit, like it's not a chicken and egg thing,

because we know Breeze was great long before Michael Thomas. But it's not like there have been other wide receivers in Drew Breeze's offenses to have 80% catch rates. There is a little bit of Michael Thomas is making Drew Brees' numbers better at this stage of his career than what they would be if he didn't have Michael Thomas. What was Marcus Colston's best catch rate once upon a time when he was the number one guy?

Yeah, I think he was used a little bit more. Not much, though. He was a pretty short area receiver, too. He was probably around 70, if I was guessing. Yeah, that's where I used a little bit more. Not much, though. He was a pretty short area receiver, too. He was probably around 70, if I was guessing. Yeah, that's where I would wager a guess. Maybe his best year was right around 71. His career was 65. Okay.

He had one season better than 68%. Okay. I think the bigger concern is just volume, right? What's that? The bigger concern is just volume. I think with Ben Gretsch's point of the volume may go down if it's not breeze i'm not as concerned about the catch rate i think the catch rate will still be high but if the volume's down that'll hurt a guy who doesn't go downfield as much as a lot of big time receivers do yeah yeah and i was going to say that about the catch

rate too colston played a different role than thomas the catch rate is really heavily influenced by the average depth of the target and and michael And Michael Thomas is one of the lower average depth of targets of any high volume receiver. He's a lot closer to the line of scrimmage. He catches a lot of shorter passes. Colson was more of a downfield guy. And so that's going to traditionally is going to just make somebody have a lower catch rate. And I agree completely with Heath that it is a chicken and egg thing. But to be that efficient, to set an NFL record by that much, and the guy he broke was Wes Welker, and that was a chicken and egg thing but to be that efficient to set an nfl record by that much and the guy he broke was wes welker and that was a chicken and egg situation too wes welker and tom brady working

together at their absolute peak was the the combination that had a 77 catch rate that was the previous record for 100 plus target receivers i i just think if you take one side of that equation out yes michael thomas will still be great he'll still get open he'll still make easy throws and we saw that with Bridgewater this year. But I still think it's just hard to be that efficient, right, if you take half the equation away. And this is like the – it's really hard to believe, but I think over – well, definitely over the last two seasons,

Michael Thomas has a higher catch rate than Alvin Kamara. And running backs are like almost all – Yeah, right, right around that 80% rate. Because they're close to the line. Sure. Easier throws to make. All right, let's keep it going with the quarterbacks. The Cowboys are expected to use the franchise tag on Dak Prescott.

Sounds like he's not going to go anywhere. That's good news. And it's a great situation for him because his offense is staying the same. In Dallas, he's coming off a career year in that offense. The new head coach is like a quarterback whisperer. You're going to hear us talk about Mike McCarthy and all the things that he done to help brett farve and aaron rogers over the course of their careers now it's dak prescott who gets to benefit i think it's i think it's easy to say that he's a top five fantasy quarterback but can he get as high as top three i don't have him in my top

three i don't think he'll get there i think watson and wilson both have much higher upside and dak's coming off the highest attempts he's ever had the one thing i do like about dax is his rushing totals were all down this year and i expect them to regress to the mean get a little higher with rush attempts rush yards rush touchdowns but i don't really see him surpassing russell wilson or deshaun watson i shaded it towards like a little bit of regression but i also think that because this was his first year in the new offense and he did this i give it a little bit more weight, but I also think that because this was his first year in the new offense and he did this, I give it a little bit more weight than I do his entire career. Also because it was his fourth year in the league

and you'd expect he'd be better now than he was as a rookie. So I do think last year is more important than the other three years, but you have to factor in the other three years a little bit. We talked about this a couple of weeks ago. I know I don't think you were on. I've got Dak number three in the early projections. So he's going to be ahead of Deshaun Watts. I'm on i've got deck number three in there okay so he's going to be ahead of deshaun watts i'm assuming you've got my homes jackson in some order my home

jackson prescott watson wilson okay all right ben gretz you got you got a take on deck yeah i mean i think those are great takes i know top three is going to be tough for any quarterback uh that isn't my homes or jackson right because i think everybody is going to have my homes and jackson in those top two spots. So you're talking about who is your next favorite quarterback. And I think there's a case for Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson. I have Dak at three right now. But those are probably your three through five.

And that's probably the next tier going into 2020. Dak is fifth for me. And I think he and Russell Wilson could end up being two of the best bargains on draft day that you can find because there's going to be two guys in every league that go after Mahomes and Jackson I think somebody's going to look at Deshaun Watson and say he's going to be a good value in round four or five somewhere in that range I think there's going to be at least one person in every league it's going to be me in my leagues that gets a little aggressive with Kyler Murray hoping to cash in on the next big quarterback breakout and then I think Dak falls in after that

and I think if you can get him this might sound weird to some normal to others round six I think it's a great value to get him and Russell Wilson yeah I'd be okay and I will say the one thing that would change with Wilson there was a little bit of buzz on radio row I think he did a couple of interviews and talked about how he was as frustrated with the lack of pass attempts as the fantasy football community seems to be. And if, if we get something this off season that they are going to loosen things up and let him throw a little bit more than Russell Wilson will move, move back in.

Of course he would, because more volume for him, that would make things amazing in Seattle. We're talking about a lot of great quarterbacks. Let's keep it going. Mitchell Trubisky had surgery to retire a partially torn labrum in his shoulder. Non-throwing shoulder, non-throwing shoulder non-throwing shoulder

maybe not a great quarterback could still matter he did not run the ball near as much last year and he was hesitant to a couple of times well I mean if one of your labrums was torn you might not want to get hit I think could be part of it I think you can't really say it affected his passing game that much

but he didn't run very much and he had 20% of his rushes were in one game. I mean, his rushing totals were way down this year. That's what we loved about him going into this year. So I still think his passing was not impressive. It's basically the thing that would give him any type of salvation, fantasy production-wise, because you know that you can't count on him week to week as a passer. Maybe as a number two quarterback in a 2qb league you can go with them but does does anything about trubisky make you hesitant on alan robinson or late season breakout anthony miller i'm worried

about anthony miller if alan robinson and taylor gabriel are both there because his late season breakout was almost entirely without taylor gab Gabriel being a big part of the offense. I think Gabriel, I don't have him in front of me, but I believe he's a cap casualty candidate. So they might let him go. I think technically Allen Robinson is too. He's in the last year of his deal, but the Bears would be ill-equipped at receiver if they let him go.

So it's going to be a contract year for Allen Robinson. He'll probably be one of those wide receiver twos that you settle for on draft day. Panthers and Greg Olson agreed to mutually part ways. He's gone. 88, no longer a part of the Panthers' offense anymore. He's already going to visit with the Bills and the Redskins. Both of those teams do have Panthers connections to the GM in Buffalo. Used to work in Carolina.

Of course, you know that Ron Rivera, the head coach of Washington now, is he draftable? Do you even put him in the conversation with that? You're shaking your head, Ben. Not at all. You say no way. He hasn't been in the top 15 in points per game the past three years. He's gotten banged up each of those years. But I think it would only be fair to count the games that he played without Greg Olson

if you're looking towards what it would be like this year. Yes. Without Cam Newton. Sure. But he's 35 years old? No, not yet. But Ian Thomas is what I'm talking about oh okay he might be draftable well yes i think i miss i thought you were asking if ian thomas was

no we're still talking about the old man here but like turn it to the young man ian thomas ben gretch what do you think oh i think ian thomas will be in a great spot next year i i it's a little tricky for him and for Curtis Samuel because I think DJ Moore is going, kind of showed that he's going to be a target hog wide receiver one, and then you have a running back who's going to lead the position and targets as well. So those two guys are going to kind of be the heart and soul of the passing game, and that makes it a little tough for Curtis Samuel to bounce back, although Samuel was the least efficient downfield weapon this year. Of the top 15 players in air yards, he was by far the lowest in actual receiving yards.

So he has some potential to bounce back based on the volume he had. It's just those other weapons that make it tougher for me to see Ian Thomas really breaking out, but I like the spot for him as the starter in Carolina. I would put Thomas in the same group with O.J. Howard and Mike Kosicki. O.J. Howard's still in a group, huh? I think he's still in a group. He's still about the same age as these guys. He's like 26 years old.

I'd be a little surprised if he even got drafted, O.J. Howard. I think there'll be a lot of drafts. Ian Thomas won't get drafted. I think there'll be some where Ian Thomas doesn't get drafted. And I think John, who could be in that same thing, if the Titans had Delaney. Yeah, I agree. That could be tough. Maybe tight end's deep now.

That's one of the takeaways I have from doing my little draft exercises is that tight end is a lot deeper now. It's still top heavy. You're still going to have your studs at the very top, but there's a little bit more girth to the position than there was before. That last tier, it goes maybe all the way until the top 15.

It really does. So there's going to be some people out there that might want to consider drafting two tight ends, girth to the position that last year it goes maybe all the way until the top 15 it really does so there's going to be some people out there that might want to consider drafting two tight ends and ian thomas could be one of them by the way cam newton has talked very openly that he expects to be the quarterback of the panthers and if he's back under center remember he's the one that spent all of training camp practicing with curtis samuel and remember there was a lot of hype about curtis samuel coming out of Panthers camp. So I think Kyle Allen might have been the reason, Ben Gretsch,

why Curtis Samuel had that inefficient year because he got a lot of deep targets. All those touchdowns were in the red zone. It was DJ Moore who was catching a lot of deep targets. It was so weird, backwards between the two of them. But if Cam's back and Cam's right, this offense has a chance to really take a nice step forward under matt rule in carolina sammy walken says he is unsure if he will play next season guy wins a ring and now he's he's gonna bail on you he that would make the chief's decision

a lot easier they i believe he has a cap hit of 21 million next year he has 7 million in dead money so they could save 14 million or about three quarters of what they need for chris jones by cutting sammy walkins he made the decision more difficult with the way he played in the playoffs because i don't think the chiefs win the super bowl without sammy walkins but i'd be what a sentence i would be surprised if he is on the chiefs next year it's a 14 million dollars cap savings they do take a cap hit of seven millions the total cap hit for sammy watkins is 21 million i'll put you in the gm chair ben schrager would you cut sammy watkins and save 14 million yes i think you do i think you trust hardman as a guy who could step up kelsey is such a big target that i don't know that they need a huge wide receiver too well you do if

tyree kill gets hurt again true or if he gets in trouble again right or if he gets yeah so i i think they probably and again this is another situation where i would much i think it's much more likely the chiefs draft a receiver in the first three rounds than a running back i'm just looking at their cap numbers right now and sammy is the one that could save them he's the absolute most money i, the next closest guy would be like Damian Wilson at $4.5 million. They would save with him. By the way, the cap hit for Patrick Mahomes in 2020, $5.2 million. That might change.

That's a pretty good bargain there. It might change. Okay. So I'm going to skip over Alex Collins working out for the Dolphins because who cares? Let's talk about buy or sell strong finishes in the second half of the 2019 season so these are guys that we've talked about in november and december they were probably crucial members of your fantasy team to help you make the playoffs

advance in the playoffs win your fantasy championship two of them at quarterback two of them are running back two of them at wide receiver two of them at tight ends let's start with the quarterbacks we've talked a lot of quarterbacks. Let's just keep it going. Ryan Tannehill, obvious guy, comeback player of the year in the National Football League. He was QB3 in six points per passing touchdown leagues. Does he keep it up? Is he even still with the Titans?

Because he and Derrick Henry, both scheduled to be free agents, both of them could receive a tag from Tennessee, won the franchise tag, won the transition tag. Benny, it looks like you've got something to say over here. I think he's still with the Titans. Both of them could receive a tag from Tennessee, one the franchise tag, one the transition tag. Benny, it looks like you've got something to say over here. I think he's still with the Titans. I don't buy his second-half performance at all. His yards per toss were double his career average.

I know he improved on his career average, but they were double. He threw the 26th most passes over that stretch. The Titans don't throw very much. We saw it in the playoffs. They're willing to win by running the ball 35 times a game. I don't want Tannehill on my team. I would take him if I'm going to pair him with a Daniel Jones, but that's about it.

What draft strategy is it where you get Ryan Tannehill and Daniel Jones in a fantasy league? They are very, very close in my rankings. Daniel Jones currently just ahead of Ryan Tannehill. I don't really plan on drafting Tannehill this year, I don't think. But if it was late and he has a good week one matchup, I could see it. But no, I don't buy it. I'd sell. I mean, he has the best receiver in the NFL,

so he does have that going for him. But beyond that, I agree with you guys. I mean, I do think that a lot, if you look at his production, a lot of his production was A.J. Brown and specifically yards after the catch. There was, I don't know that this held true through to the end of the season, but it was around like week 15 that I had this stat that from when Tannehill started as the starter in week seven until that point, A.J. Brown was their leading receiver by a ton. A.J. Brown had more yards after the catch alone than any other Titans player had receiving yards. So, I mean, a lot of what Tannehill did was A.J. Brown making plays and specifically making plays after the catch.

And again, could be a chicken and the egg. I do think Tannehill played better as well, but he does have that going for him. I think A.J. Brown is a legitimate number one going into 2020. So the first thing, and Ben Gretsch has said it, Tannehill played better. We never saw him play this well in Miami. He was comfortable when the pressure was on. He made a lot of money throws, a lot of clutch throws. He was really good. He earned his way into one of the tags in Tennessee. He deserves to be their starting quarterback. And you think about all the options that they have on offense. You think about the offense as a a whole you've got A.J. Brown we now know what he is we've seen glimpses from John U. Smith he's got

good athleticism we think that Corey Davis can put it all together we know the offensive line is good do you buy Derrick Henry saying that he wants to become more in the passing game it's what he told us on Radio Row last week on paper this seems like a great opportunity for ryan tannahill to keep it going it's just a matter of whether or not the titans are going to let that happen or if they're just going to keep on doing what they did to get to where they got in the playoffs which is run the football and then run it up more and then run it even more than that and it takes opportunities away from ryan tannahill yeah i don't like. I think at best he's a late-round pick. Yeah, I'm fine with that.

It's different in a two-quarterback league, and you want to just see what he does. You want to just have squatting rights on him to see how he is before the season. That's fine. Daniel Jones, another one of those guys that finished the season strong. He's got a new head coach,

new offensive coordinator. Kind of a weird situation in New York, right? Because Jason Garrett's clapping his way up to New Jersey, and he's going to run the Giants offense, and he's got a shot now to kind of groom Daniel Jones. You know, conventional wisdom five or ten years ago was always changing coordinators for young quarterbacks is usually a bad thing. Now we've seen it work a few times, notably with Jared Goff,

a little bit with Mitch Trubisky for a minute. I don't really feel optimism that Jason Garrett is that guy that comes in and makes a quarterback better in fantasy in year two of his career. So I'm mostly not buying it. I do think he's very intriguing, and if you're drafting two quarterbacks, he would be a good target, assuming he's available in the double-digit rounds, because there is enormous upside there with Daniel Jones because of how much he runs the football.

But I am anticipating the Giants being a more run-heavy team, devoting a lot of resources to making their defense better for next year and running the football, and that's not going to be good for Jones. It's almost exactly the same situation in Tennessee, right, because we've got a team with lots of weapons around, not as good of an offensive line, but Daniel Jones does have a chance, if the Giants so see fit, to let him throw the ball. And I think that there might be more games where that happens versus in Tennessee with Tannehill,

where Tannehill either has to throw the ball or they say, you know what, let's air it out today. Plus, the Giants do have a running back who can catch the ball a lot more than Derrick Henry can. So I think that's going to really help Daniel Jones. And what about Jones' rushing ability? Now, Tannehill can run a little bit too, but I think Jones is willing to do it. He only had the two rushing touchdowns, and they both came in the same game against Tampa. Maybe he adds one or two more on top of that over the course of 16 games.

I don't know if that's going to actually be legitimate or not, but I think he's got a chance to be another one of those late-round quarterbacks that you just take a stab on and you wait and see what happens. Ben Gretch, anything on Daniel Jones, or should we move on to running backs? Let's move on. I mean, I think you guys hit it. All right, so first word is going to go to you on Kenyon Drake, Ben Gretch. He was the number three running back in PPR points per game, second half of the season.

We were all wondering what the hell was Arizona doing trading for him, and then we kind of saw it in that first game against the 49ers. He went off. He had four great games in Arizona, played eight total. Some of them weren't great. If they move on from David Johnson, it can't be as a cap casualty because he's going to hurt them too much against the cap if they let him go. But they can trade David Johnson, and they might not get much in trade for him.

It could be a cheap thing. So if that happens and Kenyon Drake is the lead guy, the only guy behind him is Chase Edmonds, how high could he go in fantasy drafts, and how badly would you want to get him, Ben Gretch? I think he can go as high as the third round, maybe even the second round. If David Johnson's gone and they don't bring in a lot and he looks like the lead back you have to really like uh what not just what he did towards the end of the season

but what that lead running back role in arizona means i mean we saw with the ravens running backs and we've seen this over a lot longer larger sample that russian quarterbacks athletic quarterbacks influence the rushing efficiency of running backs because they keep the ends and the outside defenders out on the edge. They have to make sure that the quarterback's not going to pull the ball and keep it and run around the outside. And it really opens up rushing lanes up the middle. And I think we saw that with Kenny Drake. It's a big reason that I liked David Johnson this year is I thought his rushing efficiency would boost and I thought he'd catch plenty of passes. And he didn't do it all year, right? And then as soon as Drake came in, we saw why that role could be very valuable.

He rushed very efficiently and was very productive. So I think I'm going to buy it if David Johnson's not back. Well, yeah, if David Johnson's not back, I think it's going to be very, very difficult to move David Johnson in that contract. And if you're going to have to pay for half or more of the contract to move him, then why are you moving him in the first place? I think it would make more sense to just use him more as a slot wide receiver and give the football to Kenyon Drake. And then you can give Johnson a few carries per game. Right now I have them both projected on the team. I've got Drake as my number 21 running back in PPR. So that's really oddly very close to where I had him going into last year, and then we had the whole roller coaster season,

and he's right about there. If Johnson was gone, he would creep into my top 15. So he's right on the doorstep of top 15. He is 15th in non-PPR, 16th in PPR for me, and that's on the assumption that David Johnson's gone, that David Johnson moves on somewhere else. So, Heath, I'm curious. If you've got Kenyon Drake at 21, where do you have DJ?

Because you're assuming that they're both going to be in Arizona. Oh, he's in round 35 or 40. I think he's washed. Okay, wow. That quick? We're giving up. You know, David Johnson started this season okay before he got hurt. He ran well, but then there was a reason he wasn't being used

when Kenyon Drake was there. He must not have been 100%, and there might have been a reason why they traded for Kenyon Drake in the first place. All the more reason why I think they can move on from David Johnson for a seventh-round pick. It's not going to take very much. I remember David Johnson having volume, and I remember David Johnson catching some passes in a couple of games. I don't really have a strong recollection of David Johnson playing well.

I thought we were still looking at him. He had two of the first six games of the season where he was better than like 3.6 yards per carry he still was not a particularly efficient running back and what we saw was when chase edmonds got that job for two weeks while johnson was out he was incredible then they trade for kenyan drake and he's incredible so i like i made the joke about he's washed because adam hates when i say that instead of washed up but all the evidence that we have over the last two seasons is that david johnson's not a very good running back anymore he had five games out

of six with at least 17 ppr points a lot of i have a hard time calling him wash i know but i have a hard time calling him washed if that's the case and if he's similarly, then he might end up being a good bargain running back. But Drake's there, we think. No, I'm saying if David Johnson moves on. I'm picturing him in Tampa Bay, arm in arm with Bruce Arians. Maybe they've got the matching Kangol hats going on, and they reunite in the Bucs, and that's the running back that leads the way for Tampa Bay in 2020. I get all excited thinking about that.

We got to let Ben have a retort to that because Ronald Jones is still there. No, I agree with Dave. I agree with Dave. I know that they'll take a big hit if they have to just cut Johnson, but I think there's still some savings on that contract, right, if they do move on from him. And the huge hit that they'll take is a sunk cost, right? They have to look at are they willing to put out more money

that they may be able to save. And really, he brought them nothing. I mean, at least they decide that. I think Cliff Kingsbury showed us that, especially late in the year. They're not going to pay a backup running back, even $4 million or $6 million, if they can save that, if that's just the part they can save, even if it means eating the rest of the contract.

No, they actually lose money if they cut him. They save. $20 million they lose. $20 million you lose by not having him. It's more than that. It's almost $22 million. There's got to be a benefit to cutting. No, but the benefit is trading him, and that's why they can't ask for anything in trade.

Because what do you ask for in trade for an overpaid 28 year old running back who can give you a couple of years i just think they're like priority number one for the cardinals this off season based on their actions during the season will be to move on from david johnson there's no way that they want anything they showed us indicates that they want to keep him right i'm obviously incorrect on the on the contract but they've got to want they want to keep him. I'm obviously incorrect on the contract, but they've got to want to get rid of him. I think imagine you had a pair of shoes that you really loved, and they've just gotten beat up,

and they've got a hole in the sole, and they've got mud in them, and you don't want these shoes anymore. But if you throw them in the trash and they go to the curb, it's going to cost you $16 million. I don't hate any pair of shoes that much, and I can't imagine they hate David Johnson that much. And those shoes were actually useful for a portion of the year.

Right. So there could be some use for them keeping David Johnson. It's easier to cut him after this season. Melvin Gordon is a free agent. Melvin Gordon was an impromptu guest on our set on Radio Row. He's very optimistic about what his future holds, even though he doesn't have a contract with the Chargers or anybody else.

Finishes RB7. And other than one or two bad weeks when he first came back and he had to knock that rust off, he looked pretty good. He had a lot of really good games. Where do you see Melvin Gordon in 2020, Ben Schrager? After that slow start, he did look great. I don't see him with the chargers but he's gonna end up in a timeshare somewhere so it's kind of concerning is he gonna be a timeshare

back who catches the ball a lot or are they gonna use him between the tackles because his whole career he's shown he can catch the ball but his situation is gonna completely determine his fantasy value yeah he's not somebody I project yet because he doesn't have a team um i think i ranked him right around like running back 20 in that damian williams kenyan drake range so i guess i would say i don't buy it and it's mostly because what ben said what are the odds he lands in a situation that is good for efficiency good for scoring and he gets to be the feature guy very very there aren't a lot of teams out there that can offer that. Miami could be one of those teams.

But that's not good for scoring, probably. No, well, I don't think so. But if the Dolphins wave the magic wand and the Dolphins' offensive line is better and their defense takes a step forward after how it finished last year, maybe it's not so bad. And if he's a three-down back

catching some passes from Fitzpatrick, and it won't be a lot of them because Fitzpatrick is looking this way way he's not looking to the sides then he'll still be a good capable running back he finishes rb22 despite missing four games last year and he was 10th in consistency so i think that he does have something to offer fantasy managers uh it's too soon to like really feel good about where to draft him but I'm pretty sure you won't see Melvin Gordon anywhere near the first two rounds no chance right yeah agreed okay no matter where he goes to add on to Schrager's point he's always been a good pass catcher like Schrager said but Rivers has always thrown to the backs a ton so Dave you made a great

point that Fitzpatrick likes to throw downfield I think any other quarterback he goes to I mean with the possible exception of someone like Drew Brees, where he's not going to go, he's going to be expected to catch fewer passes because of the move wherever. So he's going to be outside the first couple rounds for me as well. And he hasn't, like he has had a year or two where he was really efficient catching the football, but you look side by side with Melvin Gordon and Austin Eckler on a per target basis. he's been like 60 as good as austin eckler where do you have eckler in your rankings well i have it's going to vary depending on format of course but and a little i have just

predicted projected the chargers as if they say you know what we have to get a quarter rack we have to get a tight end we have to make our defense better we're rolling with austin eckler and justin jackson okay which they have done it's a possibility if if that's the case then austin eckler will be a top 10 running back for me in both formats and bordering on top five and ppr i still figure he's going to share with somebody so i haven't shared with jackson but he's good with sharing he's he was really good last year with sharing and especially those first four games, he was awesome. I still can't go as high as you've got him, Heath. I've got him third.

I mean, you've got him as a second-round pick. If you've got him, he's not a first-round pick. Yeah, I had him in my top 20 when we did our top 20 at the end of the year. Yeah. If he's top five in PPR, now you're flirting with top 12. Ordering on top 12. Austin Eckler in the first round just seems a little crazy to me, second round late second round third round i could see that i think he's going to be good i just figure he's going to share so he's just outside of my top 12 in ppr

and a top i got him 17th and not ppr so i figure that he will share wide receivers a current dolphin a former dolphin which one should we do first? Let Ben Gretsch choose. Ben Gretsch, current Dolphin, former Dolphin. Let's do the former Dolphin. So that would be Jarvis Landry, who's like the most obvious former Dolphin receiver out there, I guess. Wide receiver 10 in PPR to finish the year.

He was better than Odell Beckham in 2019. We all got a chance to kind of see him at the Super Bowl radio row. When we were off camera, I went up to him. I said, hey, man, sorry about what happened in Cleveland. He said, hey, it's all good. It's all good. So he seems optimistic about the future in Cleveland, and they've got a whole new offense to learn. It's going to be very West Coast-y. I think that's good for Jarvis Landry. I think we know what jarvis landry i think we know what his role is i think we know what his volume will be so ben gretch how do you feel about jarvis landry heading into 2020 everybody hates on this guy every single year and every single year he outperforms his adp by a pretty good margin i i think he will i don't know where he finished this year oh we have it up it's wide receiver 10 um he was in in in ppr he throughout his entire career has finished top 32 i think every season and his lowest finish i think

was wide receiver 31 in his rookie year he's been top 10 multiple times he's been in the top 20 i think five of his six seasons in ppr formats everyone's talking about oh he's not athletic enough he's not this he's not that he always gets the targets talking about, oh, he's not athletic enough. He's not this. He's not that. He always gets the targets. He always catches the passes. He's always productive. And he always goes after 30 receivers because people don't think he has the upside because he doesn't have the alpha one kind of body type or downfield production. I mean, you can always get this guy later than where he's going to finish. And he's done it every single season for six years now. He's never missed a game. I mean, I don't know what more you can want out of a PPR receiver. Here's the numbers crunch that I'm running into.

And it's early and I will adjust this. He's not in my top 20 PPR wide receivers right now. He isn't like he's right around 26 or 27 and it's too low. I wonder though, Ben, because you're going to do projections later and you'll decide this later probably, but you have to commit early. Baker threw 530 passes last year. Stefanski's Vikings threw like 460. It obviously won't be that low.

League average was 575, or league median, I guess is what I use. Are you going to expect Baker to throw more passes than he did last year or fewer? Probably fewer. Probably not anywhere near the 460, though. I do think Mike Zimmer had an influence on that. Right. I think I had him right around 510, 515, something like that.

But that's significantly below what the 10% worse than what the league average was last year. And I think at best, I would expect a split in targets for landry and beckham i mean landry is over nine targets a game this year can he really do that if odell is healthy next year do you think he gets over nine targets a game i mean he always has but i i would expect right around nine because that's like i ran into i've i've got basically the entire browns pass offense too low and i know it but there's a math problem that's causing it not a not a me disliking these guys problem it could be that you're just not giving them enough pass attempts and that you've

maybe they end up throwing even more than they did last year and that would suit everybody just fine i just can't think of a good reason to expect they would throw more than they did last year you know i i go back and i look at how he did in those last eight games and kareem hunts there we know that kareem hunt was a factor catching the ball out of the backfield in cleveland he averaged this is jarvis 16.9 ppr points per game it's pretty good and it's it's good value and i feel everybody's going to look at him just like what ben gretch said which is no one's going to want him we're all going to chase the shiny new toy, which whether it's Devante Parker,

who we're about to talk about, or Terry McLaurin or Debo Samuel, or even Stefan Diggs, who's not a shiny new toy, but somebody who we know is good and has great potential. And we're going to take all those guys ahead of Jarvis Landry. And I just think that he's like that safe, sturdy receiver that you'd love to get as your wide receiver three.

But if you go running back hog wild in the first few rounds, Jarvis could be there for you in round five and you'd be okay with it. We're all taking Beckham over Jarvis? I have it that way for now. Yep. Yeah. Look, but at the first sign of injury for Odell, because that's the thing that has now harpooned him two straight years,

is that if he keeps getting hurt he's just he's not the same guy so if he's you know fresh as a daisy coming into training camp then i i can buy into him and his potential and hopefully with with a year of bad behind him and an offense that should be a little more streamlined for cleveland hopefully they get their act together and hopefully odell beckham starts to hit some of the potential but neither one of these guys are going to be top 40 type picks. I still think Odell is like a round four kind of guy. Maybe by the time we get to September he is, but for now he's not. I think the Browns as an offense are going to be one of my favorite

bounce back offenses. We liked them a lot going into this year after they acquired Beckham. We know receivers sometimes take a little bit of time to adjust to new surroundings and new offenses and he obviously did and he was banged up but I also think more than anything that Freddie Kitchens was not ready to be a head coach and I think that can trickle down to every level of the team and they just were not ready to play frankly this year they weren't disciplined we I, I don't want to just casually throw out the Miles Garrett incident, but there was a lot of things like that. The conversations with the opposing sidelines that were reported, that Beckham and even Landry were saying, come get me.

And then at the end of the year, Todd Monk and his offensive coordinator was telling opposing coaches, there was a report about that, that it was just such a mess inside the building. All of that to me is like okay maybe we should just pause what happened in 2019 with the browns and say okay can a new coaching staff can kevin stefanski just you know give them enough room to succeed that this potentially is a is a kind of post-hype breakout offense and if that's the case landry and beckham could both beat adp okay we are we've talked a lot about the uh second

half guys we're going to keep doing it why don't we save the dynasty stuff for for a show down the line since we do have time on I have heard that before all right Devontae this hosting thing isn't as easy as it looks everybody uh we we've talked a lot about Devontae Parker already on on today's podcast so what would it take for you to not want davante parker on your fantasy team or are you already there that you think that last year was fluky it would just be price for me he went in round five in our ppr mock that we i love that i love that price yeah love it i think he doesn't to be really impressive he he will talk a little bit about preston williams not being there him being the only target he did have double digit pPR points in all but one of Fitzmagic's starts down the stretch.

I think Parker was very impressive. Heath, tell me why I'm wrong. I like Devontae Parker. I think fifth round just seems to me a little bit too rich because he didn't really have the breakout until Preston Williams got hurt. He scored some touchdowns, but he did not have really a good yardage game until after Preston Williams went down. And so there's a little bit of risk of we just saw this guy's career year, which I think is probably likely that he's not this good again in his career. And then the question marks about who the other pass catchers on the team are going to be so i i would like parker as a number three receiver but i'm not going to get him as one two years ago you would have slapped

me across the face for asking this question ben gretz you can be the first one to answer it davante parker or odell beckham who you're drafting first odell beckham thank you this is this is where i step back from 2019 and look at the full career, and it's not close. Parker's been banged up. That's the other thing. He was healthy in 2019, but he's shown more. I mean, Beckham has been banged up as well, but he has not necessarily shown an ability to be this consistently

productive until 2019. I agree with Heath. I think this is probably a career year. I won't be on Parker much next year. We are going to see a lot of change in the Dolphins' personnel. I don't know how much change we'll see in the browns personnel as of now i've got parker ahead of beckham and it makes me feel weird but if if he's still the number one guy on a team that's going to throw a lot with a

gunslinging quarterback i they're very close for me in non-ppr i I would take Devontae Parker ahead of Odell Beckham. That's for now. Things can change. Two tight ends. One old, one young. Which one should we do first, the old guy or the young guy? I'll ask Heath. Old. Old. Jared Cook. Boy, did I feel old this week. But it was worth it in the

end. Everything worked out for you. Everything worked out just fine for you. Jared Cook was the tight end four in PPR second it in the end. Everything worked out for you. Everything worked out just fine for you. All right, Jared Cook was the tight end four in PPR second half of the season. He was a must-start tight end basically down the stretch because he was getting touchdowns, a couple big plays every week. Maybe we'd like a little bit more target share

from our tight ends, but he was doing fine. It looks like he's going to stay in New Orleans. He's another one of these possible cap casualties. But if he's back and if Drew Brees is back back we don't know what the rest of the receiving core is going to look like for new orleans where do you where do you draft jared cook do you feel good about drafting jared he's just barely in my top 12 he's with the oj howards of the world the mike gosicki noah fant he has the upside we saw what he did with breeze if breeze isn't there i'm very scared because he averaged 26 yards per game when breeze wasn't the quarterback he can be really good but i really

would much rather have evan ingram tyler higby i would too i think there's no question about that right i forgot we hadn't been playing the game yes we really haven't been so now we're going to start okay so we're selling jared cook is he a top 12 tight end for you, Heath Cummings? I've got him 11th in PPR. Well, no, not currently because two guys are not in the projections yet, Austin Hooper and Hunter Henry. And I have him 11th without those two guys. So I guess he would technically be 13th in PPR and just inside the top 12 in non-PPR.

So who are some names that you have ranked ahead of Jared Cook? The guy we're going to talk about next, Tyler Higby. Yep. I'm with you on that one. I do have Noah Fant ahead of him. I do too. I have Dallas Godd ranked ahead of jared cook the guy we're going to talk about next tyler igby yep i'm with you on that one i do have noah fanta ahead of him i do too i have dallas goddard ahead of him i don't have that i don't have goddard quite yet i would take jared cook ahead of dallas goddard uh ben gretz get in on this jared cook what do you say i i'm on his side 33 years old next year only had 43 catches this year and to to Schrager's point, the yardage wasn't there without Brees. But even with Brees, it wasn't necessarily great.

He was very efficient. A career-high yards per reception and also a career-high nine touchdowns. So we basically saw these big plays, and we saw a really huge spike in his touchdown rate. And actually, his previous career-high touchdowns was only six. I mean, this is like an outlier season from those two metrics. The receptions is the real issue for me. Only had 43. You know Kamara and Thomas are going to be the main guys.

I can't bank on him at 33 years old continuing to be super efficient on a per catch yardage and touchdown wise, you know, basis. I agree with that. I'm just hoping that he starts the season off with a couple of divisional games. I think the NFC South might have some really soft defenses in it. I think Carolina is going through a lot. There's no Keekly, for example. I just think that they're rebuilding there.

Tampa's defense does seem to be a little bit on the rise, but they were terrible against the pass. We could see that continue in 2020, and I think Atlanta's defense is heading the wrong way as well. So if they're starting with a divisional game, I'll be more interested in drafting Jared Cook as a tight end to begin my season with as a streamer and maybe it develops into a kinship and he ends up being my stud tight end the rest of the way tyler higby was a stud tight end toward the end of the year man he really when he got the chance to start getting targets

and play a bigger role in that rams offense he was lights out good can that continue knowing all the other options that are in that la offense so you're selling on tyler but you've got him being ranked ahead of jared cook i do just barely in ppr i like i'm selling him being a top five tight end for sure you look and this is one of the things i do when i go through to build my projections is the offensive coordinator or the head coach kind of depending on who i think has more influence and how their targets have been split up over the last three years three years ago it was 88 targets for all tight ends combined on the rams on the rams 2018 it was 85 targets for all tight ends combined last year it was 156 targets for all tight ends combined i'm not saying they're going back to 85 or 88, but I do expect

it to be back down. I think they lose at least 10%, probably 20% of the targets that they saw last year, and I still expect Gerald Everett to be on the team. I see where you're coming from on all accounts. I still think he's got a shot to be a top 10 tight end because there were times last year

when Gerald Everett, even when he came back, we all got a little nervous be a top 10 tight end because there were times last year when Gerald Everett, even when he came back, we all got a little nervous about what that would mean for Tyler Higbee. And guess what? He was still a go-to guy for Jared Goff. My question is, what is the Rams run game look like? How effective is Todd Gurley going to be? Because Gurley's ineffectiveness made Jared Goff have to do more on the offense. It ultimately sank the Rams. It kept them out of the playoffs, but it kept those that the target volume was pretty high. Plus, Brandon Cooks was either hurt or just not available on the field or not. He was either hurt and not playing or playing hurt and wasn't very good. So I think that kind of opened the door for Higby. And I wonder if he's going to get some credit for it from the coaching staff going into next year.

Yeah, I think it'll give him credit. And I think he comes up on top of the depth chart atop of gerald everett i just don't know if the targets will be there like they were this year the rams tight end as a whole whether it was everett or higby did really well this year a ton of games over 10 ppr points nine games over 10 ppr points i think higby's a top 10 tight end and i think he has a lot of upside but the upside only comes if girly's inefficient if one or more of their wide receivers get hurt. They just have too many weapons for him to sneak into the top five next year. The really interesting thing is, and it's kind of like what Ben said with Devontae Parker,

the sample size isn't quite as big, but we're basically talking, and it's not good games, five incredible games in like an 80 game or 65 game sample size for Tyler Higbee. And it was the most recent five games. We would like to believe those matter a lot more. I just don't know. Well, and Schrager made a great point that those five games were highly dependent on a really huge market share. A lot of targets.

Like he was leading the team in targets. Is that really going to be the case if Brandon Cooks is healthier? You know, Cooks had two concussions this year. If's uh healthier and in their plans next season or if cooper cup is healthier um you know robert woods they have so many options that it seems hard to believe that tyler higby is going to lead this team in targets next year rank these three tight ends and then we'll get out of here i'm going to put them in alphabetical order evan Ingram, Noah Fant, Tyler Higbee. Higbee, Ingram Fant. Ingram, or in PPR? Sure.

Ingram, Higbee Fant. Yep, that's what I'm going to do. That's my order too. Yep, Ben Gretch? Ingram first? Yeah, I like Ingram first by quite a bit over both those guys. I like Fant as a potential breakout, but I'm mostly giving Ingram a pass for 2019.

Hopefully he can just stay healthy. I mean, that's the thing that's going to – we're going to say that about 50 guys this offseason is, you know, we're crossing the fingers and hoping that they can stay upright. But think about where we were drafting Evan Ingram a year ago. He was like a round four-ish type player, maybe even round five if he got lucky and now i think you can get him into round seven because people are gonna you know see other they're

gonna draft waller ahead of him i think mark andrews will get drafted ahead of him i think austin hooper could get drafted ahead of him and so he's gonna end up being one of those great value tight ends and we just now talked about a bunch of tight ends just on today's pod that is going to be a position of depth you do not have to rush to tight end like I thought you could have last year. That's going to do it for us. We do have another podcast coming at you this week. A lot more to talk about. And, of course, we're doing this three times a week during the football season,

the football offseason. During the football season, we do it more than three times a week, plus breaking news when it happens. Combine is a couple weeks away. There's going to be a lot of exciting stuff coming down the pike. For Ben Gretsch, for Ben Schrager, for Heath Cummings, world champion Heath Cummings, I'm Dave Richard. Thanks for coming out.