Fantasy Football Today - Buy or Sell Second Half Performances (02/09 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: February 9, 2021

We saw great second half performances from Kirk Cousins, Jonathan Taylor and Marvin Jones among others, while Russell Wilson and the Rams passing game struggled down the stretch. What do we make of it? After Jamey and Heath give their thoughts on the Super Bowl, they'll tell you the second half performances they buy (8:33) and the ones they sell (12:45). And we'll spend some time on the Seahawks offense while we're at it (14:00) ... Cousins was QB3 in his last 9 games (22:55). Taylor and David Montgomery (27:30) were studs in the Fantasy playoffs. At WR (29:30), we discuss Robert Woods, Marvin Jones and a couple of Steelers ... Are Fantasy managers buying into what Logan Thomas did in his last 6 games (39:00)? He was really good! ... Your emails at [e-mail] Subscribe to the FFT in 5 podcast on Apple, Spotify, Google, or wherever you listen to FFT. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @CTowersCBS, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Want winning picks each morning in under 10 minutes? Subscribe to 'The Early Edge: A Daily SportsLine Betting Podcast' on Apple, Spotify, Stitcher or wherever else you listen to podcasts. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Today on the show, we'll talk about some of the best performances down the stretch. Last eight games, last nine games, last six games, whatever we can do to create some interesting content here. But Jonathan Taylor and David Montgomery, for example, were two of the top three running backs in football over the last six or seven weeks of the season.

So we'll discuss those players and a lot more. Like, for example, did you know that Kirk Cousins from week 9 through 17, weeks 9 through 17, was the number 3 quarterback in fantasy? Guys, I'll bring you in for this one. From week 8 through week 17, who were the top 4 wide receivers? The top

3 were Devontae Adams, Tyreek Hill, Stephon Diggs, and who was number 4 from week 8 through week 17? Kenny Galladay. Kenny Galladay. Very close. Marvin Jones.

Yes, it was Marvin Jones, believe it or not. Wide receiver four from week eight through week 17. So, Jamie, welcome back from Tampa. Thank you. How was the experience? Experience was awesome. Super Bowl was a lot of fun. I wish the game was a little bit better,

but obviously the atmosphere was good under the circumstances. It was fun to be back in the press box for the first time in three years for me. I think three years, yeah. Because the last two Super Bowls that I did, I was in the auxiliary press box so um to be back in an actual press box it was it was definitely different um but it was uh it was fun you know i mean it was uh uh the the lead up to the game was great uh i thought we did a lot of great content on um on all of our platforms uh i can only speak for what we did on sunday on h. It was great. We had a lot of great guests. I could certainly sprinkle some of that in. The non-Super Bowl stuff that the

players I spoke to throughout the week, you referenced Kirk Cousins. I spoke to Justin Jefferson. You referenced Jonathan Taylor. I spoke to Naeem Hines. So have some of those conversations to give you as well. But it was a fun week. It was great to be there. It was fun to do some stuff with Heath. I thought Heath did a great job, as always. And, you know, it was fun. And Heath, how was your food? The food was much better than the game.

Yeah. Turned out fantastic. Had some good brisket and burnt ends. And, you know, made the day or the evening not quite as terrible as what the game was for at least our rooting interests. But no, it was a dominant performance by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Like really, everything they did, they did excellent. So first of all, it's better to lose like this than lose a heartbreaker, right? I don't know.

Like I, I don't, I don't really think I'm that type of fan where like the heartbreak thing happens anymore. Uh huh. Um, so I don't really know. Okay. Well, like do you think the chiefs fans are more upset about this Superbowl or the Patriots game a few years ago in the AFC championship game?

Definitely. And this is the thing, like you years ago in the AFC Championship game? Definitely. And this is the thing. You asked earlier in the week about Mike McClure saying he was more excited about this Super Bowl than he was about last year. And that makes perfect sense because going into this Super Bowl, Chiefs fans just won the Super Bowl.

Chiefs fans have Patrick Mahomes for the next decade. Like this game really sucked. And I'm sure all Chiefs fans are upset about it, but it's not that upsetting when you just won the Super Bowl the year before. They seemed very deflated going into the game. Like they didn't seem to be the same type of like feel to the Chiefs pregame, start of the game. They just seemed flat.

I don't know how much of the travels pregame, start of the game, they just seemed flat. You know, I don't know how much of the travel factored in, you know, not being there, coming in later, you know, for the same Super Bowl hoopla. Obviously, the situation with Andy Reid's son, you know, I don't know how much that played into it. There was a lot of conversation clearly about that after the game. They didn't have a good second half game plan, you know, after seeing what had happened to them in the first half. It just seemed like a very deflated chiefs team.

And my homes was trying to be Superman to save them and didn't work out. Well, we talked about it for like 15 minutes yesterday. So we'll just end here. Like, do you guys want to give your thoughts on the game? You want to get, was it a coaching thing?

Was it just, they got beat, you know, Heath was everything like every single thing tampa bay was better at they played better offensively and defensively they coached better they had a better game plan like it was just the entirety of all the things it was that's that's how you get a result like that yeah yeah todd bowles was the best coach on the field with what he did to adjust to what happened to them in the first matchup. And I think a lot of people made too much of what happened in that first game in the first quarter because the score was 27-24.

It wasn't like the Chiefs routed them in Week 12. So Bruce Arians said after the game, the second half of that game is when their season turned. That's what he felt. I don't know if he was just saying that, but he said the second half of the first Chiefs game was when there's, and they hadn't lost a game since then. But the tackles, the offensive line was clearly a disaster for the Chiefs. The fact that they stuck with just trying to block them five on four

didn't work out at all. And obviously the Bucs offense, you know, if you were to say going in that they were to score 31, you'd say, okay, Chiefs would probably be somewhere in the neighborhood of 27 to 34, you know, and it'll be a ball game. It was totally the Bucs defense. Look, the refs obviously played a part in the first half. The holding call on Mike Evans on what should have been the interception,

I think was a bad call. The two pass interference calls on Mike Evans to set up the two touchdowns. I thought were bad calls. They're the right calls. They set up one touchdown. Huh? They set up one touchdown.

Well, the overthrow. Wasn't that the Evans and the Ansel? That might have been Godwin. The one where he tripped? The one where he got tackled. Yeah, yeah. And they were on the same drive.

There was one on Breland on Evans down the sideline. And then there was one in the end zone on Tyra Matthew, which should have been a hole of anything.

There are a lot of people who listen to the podcast, probably follow me on Twitter and people I think took, I had made a comment at halftime and I didn't say

anything. The refs did not have an impact on the outcome of the game. Like that's, but I do think I was watching it with a Packers fan and he was wishing that they had called some of those penalties two weeks ago when, when Aaron Rogers had the ball.

So I just do think. Look, the chiefs benefited from a lot of no calls in last year's Superbowl when they were holding Nick Bosa half the game. I mean, you know, it's just the nature of, of how football goes,

the rest play apart and the rest played apart in this game. I mean, you know, it's just the nature of how football goes. The refs play a part, and the refs played a part in this game. And so it impacted Kansas City more than it impacted the Bucs. But the Bucs, the coaching crossed the board. Byron Lefferts called a great game. Todd Bowles called a great game. Bruce Arians, credit to him to getting his first Super Bowl. And the Chiefs, their coaches didn't react. And so it was just, I think, the nature of how everything unfolded.

But it's going to be fascinating. Their offseason, Tampa's offseason is going to be fascinating to see how it all unfolds, you know, who they bring back. Yep. All right. So listen, before we get to the second half performances that we wanted to talk about today, I want you to download the CBS Sports app. All right.

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please don't hesitate to drop one of those for the CBS Sports app. And if you do leave a five-star rating, you can tweet us a screenshot along with a mailbag question for us to use on an upcoming episode. So thank you very much to our fantasy football today listeners for going and downloading that app and uh tweet us a screenshot of your rating and we'll end it with a question we'll read a question on our on a mailbag show uh is there any second half performance that comes to mind that you are buying yep this was a legitimate second half breakout or this is what we can expect going forward maybe not to the same degree heath anything that you're legitimate second half breakout, or this is what we can expect going forward. Maybe not to the same degree. Heath, anything that you're buying, second half performance?

Before we get there, can we just send our condolences to Marty Schottenheimer's family for him passing away? Not to interrupt you, Adam, but obviously, big story today. Great coach, obviously legendary. Coached a lot of great fantasy guys for us. Sad situation, died at 77 uh suffering from alzheimer's but um marty ball will forever be remembered i'm sure by a lot of nfl fans great head coach tremendous career marty schottenheimer um all right so heath second

half performance you're buying the closest i would say is jonathan taylor um i think he was a top five running back in the second half i'm not sure he'll be a top five running back this season, but he'll be very close. And it's just like part of the reason we're buying is we thought he was that good going into last year and it took him a while to figure it out. But when he did, man, he looked absolutely unstoppable. And do you think he warrants a first round pick or how high order? Definitely a first round pick and non PPR and full PPR. I'm probably not going to get him if he goes in the first round. Jamie, how about you on Jonathan Taylor? Oh, slam dunk.

He's a first round pick. He's borderline top five. You know, you look at what he was able to accomplish. The second half, I asked Naheem Hines and the way I phrased him, I said, you know, after getting off to a slow start, you know, can you just talk about the way that Jonathan Taylor finished? And he said, if that's a slow start, I'm sure most rookies would take that without having an offseason. You know, so he said he was just not getting the big plays in the first half of the season.

You know, that's obviously debatable, but he's, you know, Hines said, I expect him to come back and be that type of player for a full season. Quarterback's going to matter. You know, I mean, they have to have some threat of a passing game clearly to determine how good Jonathan Taylor will be. But when you have that offensive line and to have Frank Reich's memory of using him previously like he would with with somebody like Mack so that's obviously a part of it as well but if it's just Hines and and Taylor as the top two guys I'm gonna take a lot of Jonathan Taylor early in in 2021 yeah so Heath let's talk about that because borderline first round pick I'm not sure you're gonna get Jonathan Taylor if you're not willing to take him with I don't know top eight maybe top ten I'm going to look where he went in the January mock drafts we did right and I think

like there's there's a chance that I won't but I'm not going to like I think for me at least I'm not going to take him ahead of McCaffrey or Dalvin Cook or Saquon Barclay or Alvin Kamara or Derrick Henry right and so and I'm not going to take him personally ahead of Devante Adams or Tyree kill or Travis Kelsey that's eight and so then we're in the borderline

and I think in full PPR there are some other guys that are just right in that range I don't know where I'm going to end up on Zeke exactly in relation to Jonathan Taylor. I think Austin Eckler in full PPR still deserves consideration there because he's probably going to catch 40 more passes. Yeah, Barkley will be in the mix. No, I said Barkley already. You said Barkley, I'm sorry.

He went fourth overall in our half PPR draft and he went eighth overall in our full PPR draft. I would take him sixth in non-PPR. Sixth in non-PPR. All right, and let's just go over the numbers for Taylor in that second half. It was really his last six games, which spanned seven weeks.

He missed one game. Last six games, with missing a game, he was top three running back, number two in non-PPR, number three in PPR. The pace, like he's not going to get this pace, but he was on pace for 2,232 total yards, 22 touchdowns. I like that in his first nine games, Jonathan Taylor really didn't break off any big runs. He had a 21 yard run. That was his only carry longer than 16 yards in his last five or last six games. Pardon me. He had a carry of 18 yards or longer in five of those six games

and just so many carries on pace for 317 carries in those games. All right, Jamie, do you want to talk about another one that you buy or should we should we go to a second half performance you're not buying? Sure, whatever way you want to go. But I want to we're buying Jonathan Taylor. I think that was that was the the obvious one. Glad we talked about that. Give me a second half performance, somebody who was either really good or really bad, like I had Robert Woods on here. He was really bad in the last four games in particular, plus the playoffs.

Something you're not buying, don't really care about. That I don't care about? For fantasy, whatever. It's just a small sample. The Andre Hopkins tailed off in the second half after the Hale-Murray. He had three really good games and one, two, three, four

bad ones, but it didn't feel the same for him, you know, based on the way that the first half started. And so, you know, there's some talk about them going after one of the big fish and free agency at wide receiver. Um, I've seen Chris Godwin's name linked to the Cardinals. Um, I don't think they're going to get an Allen Robinson, but you, but maybe Kenny Galladay could be in the mix there as well if they decide to go that route. I think Hopkins is still a very safe wide receiver. I had my concerns last year going to Arizona about what the target share would be. Clearly, he shattered that. He was a monster for Kyler Murray. There could be some concern about maybe slowing down part of his career at this point.

But I still think Hopkins showed you his body of work was still fantastic, even though the second half wasn't as good as the first half. Yeah, I think the one that we didn't mention that is, in my opinion, the most difficult one to decipher is just the Seahawks passing game. Right? I mean, Russell Wilson. Is Russell still there? Yeah, right. I wouldn't even call them trade rumors.

Teams inquired about a trade, and apparently were told, nah, we're not trading Russell Wilson. But going from the number two quarterback in his first eight games to the number 12 quarterback and six point per passing touchdown leagues in his last eight games.

Metcalf was worse. Lockett was worse, especially if you don't count week 17. You count week 17, but for fantasy purposes, obviously, you didn't get much from Lockett. And now a new offensive coordinator and seemingly a commitment to getting back

to running the ball, which is what Pete Carroll likes to do. What do you do about Russell Wilson? I mean, that, that to me is a major draft question. Cause it's not just Wilson. It's Metcalf and Lockett as well.

Heath. I I'm kind of just splitting the baby. Like, I don't think that DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are both going to be top three wide receivers. Like they were the first half of last year. I don't have Russell Wilson as the top two quarterback, and I don't really even think he's the most likely guy other than Patrick Mahomes to finish there. He's, for me, he's behind Lamar,

he's behind Josh Allen, he's behind Kyler, right there with Deshaun Watson. But I don't, like, I know the second half is what happened most recently, but we talk about it all the time. One season, 16 games is a pretty small sample size. When you start splitting that and saying half of the season, they were this, well,

I don't put any more, much more weight in the second half than the first. I think Wilson is a number one quarterback and DK and Tyler Lockett are both either low end number ones or high end number twos. Well, I mean, it's two years in a row for Wilson though, where he started off hot and cooled off. And I think that you have to take that into account. So I agree with Heath, he's still a number one quarterback. I'm not really so concerned about Metcalf because I think his career is ascending. Lockett is the typical, I mean, he's sort of proven it for his career for the most part.

He's a boomer bust receiver. I'm not going to draft him as the number one guy, but I'll certainly take him as the number two guy, but he's not going to be somebody that I'm targeting. He's going to be somebody more that I settle for. But he's the type of receiver, as we've seen, that can win you a week and he can lose you a week. So you just have to take that into account with kind of who he is. But again, this is also a team you have to see what they do because if it's chris carson and they run it back the same group then okay you like he said you you sort of you

know split it down the middle and you say okay this is there'll be some games like this and there'll be some games like that and that's kind of who they are now if they go and say make the commitment to aaron j Jones and spend huge at that position or more draft capital on the running back spot and go with a Najee Harris or Travis Etienne, one of those guys, and really show you that this is what they are truly going to be. You already have an unhappy DK Metcalf. He's not backing down from what he said last week, that the offense got predictable and they became too stagnant.

And Russell Wilson on CBS Sports HQ kind of doubled down on that. You know, he said, yeah, they got to be a little bit, you know, disguise some things. So it's a it's a team that's going to be, you know, a little polarizing. But I don't think like last year we were targeting Russell Wilson and this was one of the top six quarterbacks. I don't think that's going to be, you know, a little polarizing, but I don't think like last year we were targeting Russell Wilson. And this was one of the top six quarterbacks. I don't think that's going to be the case this season. Well, right.

You guys called him a QB one. I mean, not to be a jerk, but obviously he's a QB one. People are going to take him in the top 12. But the question is, is he like a top six guy? Because he's been,

he's been in six point per passing touchdown leagues. And you might think of Russell Wilson as someone who's better in four point per passing touchdown leagues. It's not really the case. He does run the ball. He ran the ball a lot last year, but he throws so many touchdowns every year. Basically he's over 30,

but in six point per passing touchdown leagues, he's been a top four quarterback in four of the last six seasons. The two exceptions, 2016, uh, he threw, he had, I think he hurt his ankle in week one. He was never right.

And then 2018, he threw 427 passes. So aside from those two years, you're talking about a top four quarterback every year in this, well, four of the last six. Including last season, he was sixth and four point, fourth and six point for past touchdown

league. So, you know, why not? If he's doing it every year when he's healthy, basically, why not make what Russell Wilson, a top six quarterback?

I've got him six. Well, great. Very smart. Heath, Jamie, where do you, you said no,

right? Not in your top six. No, I mean, he's, he's, you know, assuming everybody's healthy and depending on location in terms of Watson, like for me, I have my in your top six? No, I mean, he's assuming everybody's healthy

and depending on location in terms of Watson. Like for me, I have Mahomes ahead of him, Allen ahead of him, Watson ahead of him, Kyler ahead of him. For now, still Aaron Rodgers ahead of him and Lamar Jackson ahead of him and Dak Prescott ahead of him. So he's eight for me.

Okay. And there's the production is one thing in those last eight games, but also the pass attempts. The pass attempts were much lower. 32 pass attempts per game, 32.6 in those last eight games, but also the pass attempts. The pass attempts were much lower. 32 pass attempts per game, 32.6 in the last eight games, and 37.1 in the first eight games. But it coincides with, I mean, look,

Pete Carroll wants to be a certain way. You know, it's Mike Zimmer, Pete Carroll, you know, these are two very stubborn coaches in how they typically go about things when they have the personnel that they want. And the first half of the season for Seattle, that defense was terrible. They were trying to figure things out. They just acquired Jamal Adams. There was no offseason. They had no pass rush. And that defense got significantly better when they got Carlos Dunlap and things started to really turn around for them. And so what happened?

They kind of went back to who they are. The other thing, though, that obviously the narrative that the defense got better and the numbers would certainly indicate they did, the competition got a lot easier. In the first eight games, they faced the Falcons, the Patriots. They gave them a lot of points. The Cowboys, Arizona, Buffalo. In the last eight games, they basically faced the NFC East. They faced the Rams twice.

Arizona again. Philadelphia, Giants, Jets, Washington, and then San Francisco late in the year when they were beat up. So there's so much to go through. We'll talk about it for months and months to come with the Seahawks. But all right, Heath's got them six.

And Jamie, you said, where do you have Wilson exactly? Eight. Eighth, okay. We're going to get back to this in just a second. I don't know if you can tell, but I got this beautiful, elegant, sleek, awesome watch on from Movement Watches, MVMT, MVMT. I want you to go to MVMT.com right now and get a watch for yourself or someone else because Valentine's Day is coming up and you've got watches, blue light glasses, jewelry and more 20% off for Valentine's Day. We've got a promo code for you. V-Day 20. Use the code V-Day 20 at checkout to get 20% off and win. We all want to win here on fantasy football today, win Valentine's day this year.

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In the first seven games, they gave up 30.6 points per game, and they went 2-5. In their last nine games, they gave up 29 points per game, and they went 5-4. But he threw the ball nine more times per game in that stretch. And he faced easier competition, I'd say, as well. Especially when you look at the offense they played.

But yeah, they let Kirk Cousins throw and their results were a lot better. So, Jamie, how do you feel about Cousins? Will he throw enough to be a must-start guy, basically? Because that's what he was last nine games of the season. Or last nine games, rather. QB3.

In my opinion, there are eight quarterbacks that I think everybody's going to be fighting for in your fantasy drafts. You can say there's maybe 10 if you want to throw in Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. Or you want to replace Joe Burrow with Jalen Hurts. you want to replace Jalen Hurts with Ryan Tannehill whatever the case may be um I think Cousins in that group 9 through 15 uh for me he'd be 13 I do think that there's uh or 14 depending on Taysom Hill and who's the starter for the Saints um he's got a lot to love

um you love the two receivers, obviously Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. I think you're going to end up loving Irv Smith. You're going to love the running back and what he does out of the backfield. You're going to love the fact that, uh, he's been successful despite the lack of respect that he gets as a fantasy quarterback and clearly as an NFL quarterback. And you're going to love his price tag. His price tag is going to be bottom of the barrel, one of the last picks you can make, one of the last quarterbacks you can take. So I think Cousins is fine.

This is going to be a much better defense than it was a year ago because the personnel will be better. You know, just getting Daniel Hunter back as long as he stays, adding another pass rusher, which I'm sure they'll do in the draft, the secondary getting better. It's going to change how Mike Zimmer operates. But I think there's just enough around him, enough of what he's shown you in Minnesota,

that you don't have to covet Kirk Cousins. You can settle for Kirk Cousins, and you can win with Kirk Cousins. Heath, they gave up the fourth most points in the NFL, and yet at the end of the day, I think they had the sixth fewest pass attempts in the NFL. I would expect that their defense will be better than it was last year.

I'm not sure it will be good or not, and I'm not as down on Cousins as I was going into last year. I will say I was trying to figure out how did he do it, and it's, again, nine games. He had a 7% touchdown rate. Well, his career rate's right around 5%.

Probably threw six more touchdowns than you would expect for his number of pass attempts and his career efficiency. And those six touchdowns are enough to drop him outside of the top 12 quarterbacks after week nine. Really? Yes.

Well, but okay. But the pace would still be 4,676 passing yards, 35 touchdowns. He was on pace for 41, 35 touchdowns and five interceptions. That doesn't make you a top 12 quarterback, at least in that stretch. Well, that would be his pace. He played nine games in that stretch.

You're not, you're not doubling his yards. Are you? No, no. Okay. Okay. Yeah.

Um, I don't know. No, look, I could believe it because the numbers were just ridiculous. You know, like for example, Jonathan Taylor in that six game stretch was on pace for 2,300 yards and 22 touchdowns.

And he was not the number one running back. He was close, but when you start looking at nine games, six games, you'll get a handful of just ridiculous outlier seasons. All right. Well, Cousins, he did finish strong in the 12-team drafts that I just referred to in early January. He was drafted in the 14th round in one of them, and he was not drafted in the other,

uh, the next quarterback. So he was the second to last quarterback drafted. The last quarterback drafted was Mitchell Trubisky. That's interesting. I think if you invest in, and again, let's assume Hertz is the starter for the Eagles.

Uh, let's say Taysom Hill is the starter for the Saints. And Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow, just based on lack of track record, clearly for the two rookie quarterbacks, this is the perfect second quarterback to take with those guys. Okay.

So let's go to the running backs then. Jonathan Taylor, we already talked about. David Montgomery has come up a lot in the last few weeks on the podcast. So I guess we don't have to go too in-depth. But finish top six. Well, Montgomery is very interesting from two standpoints. There's the trade rumor of him, Tariq Cohen,

being thrown into any Carson Wentz deal for the Bears to acquire Wentz, which would obviously be a big boost for David Montgomery. The other part of it is who their new um i think play caller is right john d filippo got promoted to um passing game coordinator maybe passing in corner yeah yeah uh that's big he loves throwing the running backs yeah i um i think it's interesting with montgomery and it's funny because like that stretch we were talking about with jonathan taylor i think one of the two backs that scored more fantasy points than him in PPR was David Montgomery.

Yes. I, I don't believe it quite as much with Montgomery, but I don't have them separated. I don't think by as much as most people do. It's really interesting with miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs, and David Montgomery.

I've got them all in a pretty similar range and Tariq Cohen going from Chicago to Philadelphia would absolutely be enough to change the order of Montgomery and Miles Sanders. Yeah, that makes sense because in three games with Tariq Cohen, he had six catches on nine targets. And in 12 games without Cohen, he was on pace for 64 catches on 79 targets. So it made a huge difference huge difference clearly for David Montgomery. Um, sec,

easy second round pick for you guys or what, or does he get into the third? David Montgomery, easy second round pick. Yeah. What do you think? No, I don't think he's going to be a second round pick in,

in a lot of leagues. Okay. I've got him as a back end of the second round pick right now, but I agree. His ADP will probably be third round. If Tariq Cohen is on the team, he should not be drafted in round two. If Tariq Cohen is not on the team,

then he should be a round two pick. If Tariq Cohen is back, is he a round three pick for you, Jamie? Yes, he's a round three pick. Okay. A couple wide receivers who had interesting finishes. Robert Woods.

You look at his last four regular season games and then his last, and then his two postseason games. I mean, it was ugly. The last four games, he had 172 yards. And then in the postseason, he had 48 yards in both games. He did manage to score once. But really finished with a whimper if you look at those six games.

Does that matter to you guys at all, Robert Woods? Not now. Right, not with Stafford. Yeah, because the passing game was absolutely putrid in those six games. They were on pace to throw for 3,100 yards. All right, so we could skip Robert Woods. How about Marvin Jones?

Obviously, number four wide receiver in his last 10 games. None of those were with Kenny Galladay. In fact, he had 16 targets in four games with a healthy Kenny Galladay. That's pretty incredible. But did it tell you anything just about Marvin Jones? To Marvin, like Marvin Jones has monster performances and generally outperforms wherever we draft him.

And there may also be a stretch during the season where he's on the waiver wire because he's just been awful for three weeks it's interesting because he is one of the guys the only guy i guess but definitely someone that there's been talk about how he would really like to follow matthew stafford to the rams and they could use a josh reynolds replacement that could be van jefferson but there's that connection there and cup and Woods haven't really done the downfield stuff that Jones and Stafford have done in the past.

So landing spots are obviously going to matter more for Martin Jones. He's so annoying. I'm sorry. Like in this 10-game stretch where he's the number four wide receiver, he had six games with 51 or fewer yards. He's a poor man's Tyler Lockett. Yeah, that's well said. However, when Kenny Galladay was on the field, he was

like a poor man's Josh Reynolds. He was so... 16 targets in four games. So, I mean, does Marvin Jones need an absolutely perfect situation where he's on a team with a terrible defense and he's the only good wide receiver, basically basically to be fantasy relevant.

He tweeted, uh, when the Jaguars hired Daryl Bevel, who was with him in Detroit. Uh, I think I said this last week, the, uh,

or two weeks ago, the devilish, uh, Oh yeah, I know what you got. I know what you mean. The Grinch, the Grinch you know grin like

go follow him kind of deal go follow him to Jacksonville that would be a good spot for him because DJ Chark should still be the number one guy there but he's not clearly a dominant number one guy and if there's a connection with a coordinator

with a new quarterback coming in, you know, he could, he could be the number one option for Trevor Lawrence. It wouldn't be a surprise. He'd be a terrible number one, but, um,

it would help his fantasy value. So I think if he goes to a situation like that, that's, that's great. Um, you know, if he's, if he's going to be like,

say the answer to Baltimore's woes, I don't think that's a great situation, that type of thing. All right. So let's say he goes to Jacksonville. When would you draft Marvin Jones? Assuming that it's Chark and Jones as the top two guys, he'd probably be in that round eight, round nine range. Yeah, we've seen this play out.

We're going to get to May or June, and he's going to have an ADP around round 12 and end up on everybody's sleepers list, and we'll push him up to around round nine. All right, let's go to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Heath pointed out yesterday that the Steelers, in the last half of the season, they had two top 12 PPR-wide receivers. Juju Smith-Schuster, I went with the last nine weeks of the season.

That was nine games for the Steelers. It was eight games for a lot of teams. But for the Steelers, nine games. Juju was 16th in non-PPR, but 10th in PPR. And Deontay Johnson was even better than that. He was 6th in PPR. He was 9th in non-PPR. And what an unimpressive way.

Like, Juju Smith-Schuster, he was on pace for 103 catches 862 yards that's awful and 11 touchdowns but it just they threw so much over and over and over again Ben Roethlisberger in those nine games was on pace for 724 pass attempts so I don't know what to make of it guys but Heath what was your take on that Juju and Deontay Johnson, last nine games, both of them were top 10 PPR wide receivers. Yeah, that there could be a really big opportunity for Deontay Johnson and Chase Claypool, assuming Juju's gone, which I think is my expectation.

I don't know if it's everyone's expectation, but Ben Roethlisberger is going to be running this offense. So they're going to throw it more than 600 times. They might lead the league in pass attempts. Deontay Johnson's probably going to see 10 a game for as long as he can stay healthy. And there's still room for another wide receiver to be a top 20 guy.

And Jamie, what do you think? I think Juju's gone. I think they're another team that's going to be fascinating because it's almost definite that Roethlisberger's back the fact that he said he's gonna move his money around you know take less money whatever you want to call it but um i can't imagine juju stays so do they replace juju in his role or do they change some things around i mean you know clearly you have as he said you have johnson and claypool uh but i think there's another team that wants to get back to running the ball and finding an answer there because their run game was a joke. So, you know, what they do philosophically will be interesting.

They're tweaking their offensive line. They had a new offensive line coach. I think the third receiver in Pittsburgh, whoever that ends up being, you know, maybe it's James Washington, you know, for what that's worth. He doesn't do the same things Juju does, but I think the top two guys are going to be great.

The third guy is probably not someone I'm going to have a lot of interest in unless Juju's back. He wouldn't be the third guy in that case, obviously. Are we going to care about the yards per target for these wide receivers from last year? Because they're not impressive. They're pretty bad. I think you've got to give Ben an opportunity

to have a full offseason following the elbow injury and see how, you know, did he get stronger? Is age a factor? Did he get older? You know, so which way is he going? You know, how they changed some things. You know, you saw,

at least in the playoff loss, they looked a little bit more Pittsburgh like from 2018. In what respect? I mean, the passes were different.

You know, he was throwing the ball downfield a little bit more in that game. How many times did he throw in that game? Yeah, but that's the thing.

That's who they were that season. Yeah. Right. I don't. That's who they were that season. Yeah. I don't know what to take out of that. I will say I care about it to this extent. My first run of projections, I had six wide receivers with 140 targets, and Deontay Johnson was one of them.

And all of them besides Deontay Johnson were in my top seven in PPR scoring, and Deontay Johnson was one of them. All of them besides Deontay Johnson were in my top seven in PPR scoring and Deontay Johnson the 17th. He's not going to be ranked where his targets would suggest he should be because he's been inefficient two years in a row now. Do you have Juju on the Steelers in that scenario?

No. You say he's been inefficient two years in a row now. You really care about his rookie year his rookie year had one of the worst quarterback situations in football

and it was his rookie year I wouldn't care about it if his second year was different but that's the thing like are we judging him accurately was it his fault

that his yards per target were so low I mean the drops were obviously his fault but who who was going to be efficient in that offense where they're just throwing seven

yard slants every play and things like that? I mean, there was no way you were going to have a good yards per target in that offense with that design. You got to hold Juju feet to the fire, too. Juju's been bad two years in a row in that respect. I don't believe

that Deontay Johnson was even as good as the other receivers on his team, though. He was the best. Yards per target? I don't know, but the numbers were... He was fourth amongst wide receivers on the Steelers last year. In yards per target, but was it not close?

Compare him to Juju. What were the yards per target? It was pretty close to Juju. He was right behind him. Ifju what were the yards per target it was pretty close to juju yeah that's what's right right behind him if you're gonna judge deontay johnson harshly i think you have to judge juju harshly too based on the last two years that's that's fine except and that's probably where um why i stay a little bit higher on juju we have seen elite production from juju we've never seen anything but this from deontay Johnson. But do you also have Juju playing with a much better quarterback situation in his career than Deontay Johnson has? Because Juju had the best of Ben Roethlisberger. Deontay Johnson's had the worst of Ben Roethlisberger and then that terrible situation. Right. And we've never seen Juju.

Everybody knows I was a huge Juju guy. I mean, he was one of my favorite players last year on draft day. It was one of my biggest mistakes, but he's never had a good year without Antonio Brown. Right. So we've never seen that either. So you're saying he should go to Tampa. They could use the help, Jamie.

They could use the help. Well, if they lose Godwin and Gronk, maybe he's the answer. There you go. That works. All right. So I had two tight ends.

I think Kosicki's pretty boring. The last six weeks of the year, he was tight end four, but it wasn't nearly as good as Logan Thomas, who was tight end three. And Logan Thomas, in his last six games, his pace was 112 catches, 965 yards, which

isn't great on 112 catches, eight touchdowns on 144 targets in a pretty bad passing offense. By the way, it had three quarterbacks, especially if you look at the playoff game, which he had 70 yards in that game too. Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, and Taylor Heineke. So Thomas finishes pretty strong.

Number three tight end in the last six games behind only Waller and Kelsey. And Jamie, do you buy the performance? Do you think he could be a must-start tight end next year? Do you think he will be a must-start tight end in 2021? I think depending on where Kyle Pitts goes and some of the off-season movement with guys like Hunter Henry and Johnnie Smith

and some of the other free agents, that he'll be drafted as a low end starter or a, uh, maybe in a, in a combo situation where you draft two tight ends. But I do think that it's somewhat fluky. I think that they're going to get a better second wide receiver, whether it's, you know, a guy like Antonio Gandy golden getting better, if that's possible or addressing the position somewhere else, but he's, I mean, he proved himself, you know, it's, it's a, it's an offense that's tight end friendly. It's a, you know,

certainly if it's Alex Smith, you know what his track record is with tight ends. I mean, you know, we spent a lot of time dissecting Travis Kelsey's career this week, and a lot of his great performances came with Alex Smith. So I think if Smith is the bridge quarterback to whatever they do, then Logan Thomas is fine. If they bring in somebody dramatically different, then you've got to reevaluate it. But he's in that 10 to 15 conversation for sure.

Yeah, in full PPR, I could see a wide, wide range of where I rank him, just depending on the things Jamie said, who's the quarterback, who's the number two wide receiver, those types of things. And non PPR is not quite as appealing because there's not really much there for yards and you wouldn't expect a big touchdown number.

Okay. But if you look at the position, Kelsey Waller, Kittle and Andrews, I would, are going to go ahead of him. Although, I think maybe if somebody really loves Logan Thomas, you look at Mark Andrews in a PPR league, I mean, the catches are going to be pretty low. But let's say Andrews, and then I would assume Hawkinson. And I'm not saying I would take Logan thomas six but he was better than everyone else he finished as the number four tight end behind tunyon he was he was better than hawkinson he was

better than hawkinson but i i just think people will take hawkinson ahead of him but he was better he was better than almost every other tight end he was the number four fantasy why are we why are we taking these unprovable like i'm a i'm a dope i probably did it because i didn't have rankings i didn't have rankings. I didn't see Logan Thomas, but I took two tight ends in this draft in January, Mike Kosicki and Evan Ingram, and then Logan Thomas went a half a round later.

I probably should have taken Logan Thomas. Why are people taking Hunter Henry and all these guys who haven't really done anything like what Logan Thomas has done ahead of him? I think you look at track record and, you know, for Logan Thomas, this is the first time he's gotten this opportunity to be a feature tight end in an offense. Can he do it again? As he said, you know, is the touchdown potential. There's a yard potential there. You know,

he had a lot of of the short area passing game for Washington, you know, that, that really benefited him. But this goes back to the conversation we had is, is, is he in an offense that just doesn't have enough weapons that he can thrive? And so what do they do to enhance their weapons? Cause their weapons were terrible. I mean, you know, you had Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson and Logan Thomas. And if Logan Thomas is your third guy, kudos to them for making the playoffs,

but I don't think it was because their offense, it was because their defense. It was because of Doug Peterson and playing in a crappy division. Um, LOL, by the way. Right. Uh,

so, you know, I just pulled this up. So we did, this was right after the season ended our top 12 tight end rankings. And I'm sure Heath has probably changed already. Mine, not so much,

but, uh, Logan Thomas is 12 for me. He is 11 for Dave. He is 10th for Heath and he's fifth for Chris. And so Chris has him ahead of Henry, Hawkinson, Fant, Ertz, Gusecki, Goddard. And again, you could say maybe he is better than those guys, but I would take most of those guys over him.

And I'm sure Heath and Dave would as well. Yeah, it's because Chris' first was based on a first round of projections. I mean, I did my first round of projections. He also came out fifth. I think that makes sense. I wouldn't rank him fifth right now, but I also think saying those guys have never done what Logan Thomas did.

Heath, the second I said it, I wanted to curl up and do a ball and start crying. It was the dumbest thing I've ever said. His last six games were really impressive. It was the Tyler Higby. It's like I said on FFTM5. It was kind of the Tyler Higby thing. Yeah, his overall stats, 72 catches, 670 yards, and six touchdowns.

Almost a carbon copy of Evan Ingram's rookie year. Yeah, not very good. And Stragger pointing out he's going to be 30 next year, 31 next year. 30, which doesn't next year, 30, which doesn't really bother me because, I mean, it's not like, it's kind of an experimental tight end. You know, he played quarterback in college. Well, I mean, look, he's not to the same extent, but, you know, Darren Waller's a late bloomer.

Yeah. You know, he didn't necessarily get his opportunity until a little bit later in his career. So it could happen for Logan Thomas, but I just think if I'm Washington and do I need to address the tight end position? Probably not. But do I need to address the position, the, the, the offensive skill players around Logan Thomas? Absolutely. I mean, you can't go through your,

your season where you don't have a consistent number two receiver and they didn't have that at all. So, you know, if they bring in somebody significant, it's going to matter. If they change the quarterback, it's going to matter. Okay, let's look at the news and notes real quick, then we'll read some emails to finish the show. Just two things here. Is Andrew Luck coming out of retirement, guys?

Should we make sure he's should we see if he's available in our dynasty leagues? Which he probably is. I don't know what you're talking about. Yeah, there's been rumors about Andrew Luck. I'd be surprised.

I mean, if that's the Colts' move, that'd be bleeping fantastic. It would be pretty amazing. Jim Irsay saying that Luck is more retired now than he was two years ago. Yeah, I don't... All right.

And Minnesota promoted Clint Kubiak to offensive coordinator. He's their quarterback's coach. I would guess probably influenced a little bit by Gary Kubiak, his father. Any big takeaways from this? No. Okay, great. Take a quick break on fantasy football today. I'm a homestead toe No. Okay, great.

Take a quick break on fantasy football today. I'm a homestead toe surgery. Oh, yeah. I'm a homestead toe surgery. That's why they lost. Sorry, Bucks. It was an illegitimate Super Bowl.

It was all about the toe injury. All right, now we'll take a break. When we come back, emails. It must have hurt when he was running for 500 yards before he threw a pass. Fantasy football at cbsi.com.

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And of course, Apple podcast questions are always welcome. Leave us a five-star review. Okay, this one is from Niall. I'm in a 14-team, 20-man roster, PPR Dynasty League. We started three wide receivers and two flex. So his wide receivers are really good. Hopkins, Ridley, Godwin, Brandon Cooks,

then Gabriel Davis, Sammy Watkins, and Gandy Golden. But he's got three studs plus Brandon Cooks. He needs running back help, it looks like. Eckler, Dillon, Ito Smith, DJ Dallas, Darrington Evans. I'd say so. Should I try to package Cooks with the number nine pick in the rookie draft to get into the top five? I am almost certain one of the top five picks

is going to be Trevor Lawrence. So that means he could end up with Jamar Chase, Devontae Smith, Travis Etienne, or Najee Harris. So would you give up the ninth pick and Brandon Cooks for a top five pick in this sense? He needs a running back. Yes. But it's got to be a top three pick.

Why do you say that? Just to guarantee you a running back, basically? Yeah, you don't want to be stuck where you know, where Harris and Etienne go. And I don't even know at this point who's the third guy, but if those two guys are gone...

Well, would it not be... Okay, then in that scenario, would it be worth it to trade Brandon Cooks and the number nine pick to get Jamar Chase or Devante Smith? I know it's a wide receiver, but two stud prospects

a lot younger than Cooks. Yeah. I mean, if you're trying to upgrade over Cooks, absolutely. That's like your number four wide receiver? Yes. Yeah, I'd probably just be drafting a running back. Yeah.

Well, but if ETN, I'm saying if ETN and Harris are off the board, who's taking a running back? Back end of the first round, you could just snag a running back. What's that? Back into the first round, just snag a running back instead of making the wide receiver.

Yeah. All right. Well, I think if it's worth it, let's try to get that top three pick. There you go. All right. We'll settle on that. The thing about it is like Justin Jefferson was not a top five dynasty pick last year, right? Oh, no. By any stretch. So

that just goes to show you that it's an inexact science, clearly. And you look at the running backs, which I think for the most part, was there really a bust of the top guys so far? Yes. Well,

yeah. I mean, I think you didn't really get much from acres and Dobbins. Right. But in terms of their longterm, like, Oh no, like value has not gone down.

The only one that you would say is probably a bus is ever to layer. And I don't think he's a bus, but I mean, you know, just based on where he was drafted and the expectations or the performance, but you know, Everett's layer was great. Taylor was great. But Edward Slayer was great. Taylor was great.

Edward Slayer was fine. Taylor was great. Akers, Dobbins, DeAndre Swift, those were all the guys that were drafted early. You could see the star potential in all of these running backs. But you also had Antonio Gibson, who in most cases was a second-round pick. And James Robinson didn't get picked at all. James Robinson didn't get picked at all. But just in terms of the draft, so you didn't get picked at all. James Robinson didn't get picked at all. But in, in just in terms of the draft,

so you can find a guy at nine, the, unfortunately the guy at nine last year, you know who it was based on the buzz was Keyshawn Vaughn. You know, that that's the running back that people took at the back end of the first round, who was a bust and maybe Zach Moss too.

But you know, I remember in our dynasty league, Keith, I was trying to trade with, uh, RJ white to move up to his spot. I think he was nine. It might've been nine and to get Keyshawn bond.

And I unfortunately took, well, I took Justin Jefferson at the, with the 14th pick, which is just dumb luck that you guys let him fall. Um, but I, I,

I made the mistake in round two of taking Zach Moss over Antonio Gibson. Okay. I just, first of all, I don't think you should make any trades until you see where these players end up. If you can wait,

right? Cause you want, you want to see the landing. I disagree. Well, don't you want to know if you have the ninth pick? No, if you can move up into the top five,

you guarantee yourself that is the cost. I thought you were making the case of staying. I do think he's not making the case today. All right. Cause you're saying Justin Jefferson. No, I'm just playing devil's advocate. Like if I can get into the top five,

I'm getting into top five. I don't personally think that the difference between nine and five is worth Brandon cooks. No, but I agree with Jamie. If you get the top three as a different story. Okay. It just,

it does seem like these two wide receivers in chase and a Smith. They're going top five, unless it's just a complete disaster of a, of a scenario. But I'll also bring this up here because I'm looking at right now, a top 100 ranking, but this is from December 21st. I don't know how much has changed since then,

but on CBS sports.com top 100 ranking. And just looking at the top 10, Jamar Chase is fifth. Devontae Smith is eighth. And his teammate, Jalen Waddell, is ninth. Another wide receiver. So if he's in the equation, too. That's top 100 overall prospects, right? So that's not skill players.

Right. In terms of skill players, it's Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and then the three I just mentioned. But you throw out the quarterbacks unless it's a 2QB league or Superflex. Right, right. What I'm saying is there are three wide receivers in the top 10 of this top 100. There were

three quarterbacks and no running backs. We talked about the busts with the running backs, but who were the first? If you want to look at where they're going to be drafted, the first three wide receivers drafted. Do we feel better The first two were almost certainly Judy and Lamb. Yeah.

I think people feel worse about Judy than they did last year before he played a game. You don't. I think people are still high on him. No, but Heath's right. They feel worse now. People feel a lot worse about the first guy drafted in the NFL draft. Henry Ruggs.

Yeah. Yeah, that's for sure. Okay. Well, I, I think, uh,

we've, I don't know what we're trying. I think trade into the top five. Jamie says trade in the top five. Heath says only if you can get a running back. I said, I'm not giving up Brandon cookss to go from 9 to 5. All right.

I would do it from 9 to 3. There we go. All right. From John in a Canadian province, grade the dynasty trade, give up Alvin Kamara, get Clyde Edwards-Elair, and pick 1.2. So the second pick of the rookie draft. Kamara for CEH and the second pick of the draft.

Half PPR league. Oof. So let's assume it's one of those receivers. Well, it is a super flex league, so it could be Trevor Lawrence. Could be Trevor Lawrence. That's very fair. I'll say C,

because Alma Kamara has what? Three great years left maybe? That's a lot. He'll be 26 at the start of this year. Two great years? I'm not giving you a definitive answer. I'm asking. Yeah, I think I'd say two. But is he great without Drew Brees? Is he elite without

Drew Brees? With a normal quarterback he is. I'm not sure he is with Taysom. Look. What if it's Watson? Oh, well, then yes. Yeah, I would make that trade personally, but it's close. What would you grade it? Beep.

Beep. I think you need more, though. It feels like you need more for Kamara. I think that's a D at best. Okay. Clyde Edwards-Ziller and Travis Etienne is not good enough for you? No. All right.

All right, John. Thank you very much for the email. Thanks to all of you. FantasyFootball at CBSi.com. Make sure you get your movement watch. MVMT.com slash FFToday. Or is it FFT? FFT. FFT.com. Make sure you get your movement watch mvmt.com slash fftoday. Or is it fft?

Fft. Fft, thank you. mvmt.com slash fft. Code is VDAY20 for 20% off. Check it out. For Heath and Ben and Jamie, I'm Adam.

We'll talk to you on Thursday.