Fantasy Football Today - Buying the Breakouts? Analyzing Six Big Breakouts From 2025 (04/08 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: April 8, 2026

Chris Olave and George Pickens were obvious breakouts, but does Garrett Wilson qualify? We'll talk about those three wide receivers and more after we get to the news and notes (4:35) on Malik Nabers, De'Von Achane and others ... Garrett Wilson (13:15) had a strong start to the season for the second straight year. Is that enough to call him a breakout? Can he pick up where he left off? George Pickens (24:00) had by far his best season. What changed for him other than the upgrade at quarterback? And as we evaluate Chris Olave (33:40), did anything change other than touchdowns? Does that make him risky in 2026? ... Javonte Williams (47:40) was a Top 12 RB, so why isn't he being considered in that range in drafts? And we finish with a couple of breakout quarterbacks (53:00): Drake Maye and Trevor Lawrence. Who can replicate their production in 2026? How much stock do we put in Lawrence's strong second half? Did Maye overachieve? ... Email us at [e-mail] Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Shop our store: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠shop.cbssports.com/fantasy⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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What a play! Can you believe this? It's a no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays on his feet. It's just going to go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Welcome to the show, everybody on Wednesday, April 8th.

It's fantasy football today. Are we buying the breakout from 2025? Garrett Wilson, did he even break out? I might have to try to convince myself and others that he did. George Pickens, he certainly did. He was wide receiver six per game, his first time finishing in the top 30 per game. Chris Olave broke out. He was wide receiver seven per game, his first time finishing in the top 20.

Giovante Williams broke out. He was a top 12 running back on a per game basis. And of course, Drake May broke out. He almost won the Super Bowl. And Trevor Lawrence had his best season. He averaged 23.2 fantasy points per game in six point per passing touchdown league's first time over 20 points. per game.

Okay, Adam, Dave, Jamie Heath. We're all here talking about those breakouts. We have some news and notes. Heath, do you think Garrett Wilson had a breakout year last year? I mean, no. Because probably the smartest person in the fantasy industry has a very specific way of describing breakouts and distinguishing between sleepers and breakouts. And sleepers win you weeks.

breakouts win you leagues. And Garrett Wilson didn't win anybody a league last year. He did win you four weeks, though. He finished. He won you a month. He had a breakout month. He did. Well, we'll talk about that.

If we included every player who had a breakout month in our breakouts from last year, this show would be as long as beyond the box score. I think I've just been dying to talk about it. There's no way it would be as long as beyond the box score. Come on. I've just been dying to talk about Garrett Wilson because when, when, uh, Jamie, Dan and I did a mailbag a couple of weeks ago. It seemed like I had a completely different outlook or view on what he did last year.

So he's one guy we're talking about. Dave, what do you think? We've seen great finishes for Trevor Lawrence before. Trevor Lawrence in his first, I want to say, seven, ten games of the season. He was QB 22 per game. In 4. He was QB 17 per game. A lot of rushing touchdowns.

Right. Week 9 on. Yeah, well, last seven games, who's the number one quarterback in fantasy. Why does this feel different for Lawrence than say the end of, I want to say, the 2023 season? Yeah, which was really good. So a couple of players emerged for Jacksonville during that breakout. It was Parker Washington. That started to happen in week seven, not necessarily week nine.

And then Jacoby Myers arrived in week 10. And I think those guys helped him out a lot. I think the offensive line staying healthy all year was a big plus. and his own just ability overall that includes his rushing, certainly padded his stats. Yeah, I think we can buy in to a degree on Trevor Lawrence. I think we can look at them as the top 12 quarterback. Okay.

We'll get back into the breakouts in a little bit. Let's talk about some news and notes. Jamie Malik neighbors, based on what John Harbaugh said, doesn't seem likely to be ready for the start of training camp. Harbaugh said closer to the start of the season, doesn't mean he won't be ready for week one. also Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence and cornerback Paulson

Adibo didn't show up for OTAs but as far as neighbors goes and not necessarily not being ready for the start of training camp which seems like the most likely scenario now does that change anything for did we already assume that what do you think? I mean it's not ideal clearly

you know so you're going to have to just play the waiting game depending on when your draft is and how early you want to buy into a guy that still has massive potential but clearly the the the the the the potential to you know miss some time or be a little bit delayed at the start of the season or you know hopefully not but suffer a setback so I think you have to use caution you know and and sort of this determine you know we spent some time talking about just

and de Jefferson last week I think it's easy to take Jefferson over neighbors right now we talked a little bit about when we did bus you know CD lamb and where he should go I think clearly you're going to take lamb over neighbors, Drake London over neighbors, Rashi Rice over neighbors. So now you start to get to the sliding scale of where he goes. And I would guess, at least for me, he's going to be closer to that.

Chris Olavet, George Pickens, T. Higgins group, you know, back end of the top 12, if not sliding out of the top 12, if this continues to get worse from a news standpoint. So, you know, when your drafts happen in late August, hopefully he's back out there, everything is fine, and you can draft him. I think as early as probably for me, middle of round two.

But, you know, somebody that is probably looking at more like a round, late round two, early round three pick at this point. I think every name that Jamie said I would take over Malik neighbors except for T. Higgins. And I have T. Higgins one spot behind Malik neighbors. You would take Olave and Pickens over him? Yeah. I think you have to at this point. Okay.

Well, yeah, obviously that's subject to change based on the health. I was actually watching. I do think that this is going to be a somewhat of a benefit for Jackson Darts value. Because my guess is the upside of Jackson DART and drafting Jackson DART is, well, he did this last year without Malik neighbors. And now you're giving him neighbors. And so when you start to look at QB 5, 6, 7, 8, you know, he's going to be probably ranked in that range or ADP is going to put him in that range. And if you are scared of drafting him there when you're comparing him to Jailen, Hertz and Jane Daniels and, you know, for me, Justin Herbert, you know, those type of guys,

you push them down a little bit and you hope to get him at a cheaper cost. I was watching the clip of Matt Harmon's podcast. He had Matt Waldman on. Heath, I haven't gotten to listen to your episode yet, but that will be today. I'm glad you got your priorities straight. Today, well, it was a one minute clip. You listen to a different podcast, the same guess, got it. One minute clip.

I mean, I think Walman's been on like seven podcasts this month, so you can just go through them and maybe you can get to mine after the draft. No, I will get after the show I'm going to be listening to it. I mean, I think your great success in the Baked Burger Dynasty League and the FFT Dynasty League shows that you really don't need to listen to any Dynasty podcast. You've pretty much figured that format out. Or maybe I should stop listening because it is the only dynasty show that I listen to, Heath. Anyway, he was talking about where he has Carnell Tate ranked in terms of his grades. And he said it's pretty close to where he had Luther, a little bit better than where he had Luther Burden.

But not really, like no one's approach Malik Neighbors, basically, is what he was saying. I think Malik Neighbors, he had his 95 score. It's just a reminder of the type of prospect Malik Neighbors was. All right, Devon A. Chan didn't report for OTAs. Deshawn Watson has been medically cleared, according to Zach Jackson of the Athletic. Jonathan M. Alexander of the Houston Chronicle expects Tank Dell to be ready for week one. Good. That's great.

Yeah. It's good that one of the writers expects that when the coach kind of poo-pooed at. Well, did he poo-poo week one or poo-poo the startup training camp? I thought he said, we'll have him at some point during the season is what D'Amico said. So it could be good one. That's week one, right? Kyle Pitts signed his franchise tender. It's a one-year deal about $15 million, but he can negotiate a long-term deal up to July 15th.

That significantly reduces the chance of a holdout, right? Yep. Because when you can't. Right. Yeah. Right. It costs some money now if he does. Yep.

Right. Fantastic. Whereas Devon A. Chan could hold out. He's in the last year of his deal. Missing OTAs is one thing. I don't think anybody's worried about that. But if we get to training camp and he's not showing up in Miami, yikes.

I don't know if I'd be as excited to take him with an early round one pick as I am right now. I would guess based on the comments and the reporting about he's one of our pillars and we're not going to trade him, all that stuff is there's been contract discussions going on already. and he's probably just waiting until that deal comes out so that he doesn't do anything to injure himself or because I'll be BS and they're trying to trade him and they don't want him get hurt before they do it.

I don't know if this has been mentioned. Oh, sorry, Dave, but with A-chan, I think the first concern is going to be. You got to say first names now. Yeah, right. Which A-chan are you speaking of, Adam? Devon A-chan. Thank you.

Devin A-Chane, as we used to know him. You know, he's on such a bad offense, on such a bad offense. The offense are 25th. points per game last year. They were not terrible. They could certainly be worse than that, but they weren't a good offense last year.

And he was terrific. I think the bigger concern is how much Malik Willis throws to him. Yeah. Because they could be terrible. And if he has 90 targets, it doesn't really matter. His receptions, as we discussed in the bust episode, like not cratered, but they certainly were decreased when Tua left the field. Yeah.

It was only a few. games, but yes, absolutely. Okay, Beyond the Box Score. Jamie mentioned it. Heath mentioned it. I don't mention it now. Oh, Dave mentioned it before the show even started. We all love Beyond the Box Score. They have their own YouTube channel, so go to YouTube and search for Beyond the Box

score. You're going to get great insight there. Obviously, they have their own audio channel as well, but that's a wonderful podcast. We have so many great podcasts. Go to CBS.Borce.com.com slash podcasts for a full list. Let's get into... I can see you didn't listen to yesterday's edition of Beyond the Boxcore. Were you on it? I was. How'd that go?

I replaced Jacob Gibbs. And so it was Dan and I talking draft prospects for an hour. And I am no Matt Waldman, but I do my best. We went over all the top guys and where we'd like to see them play and where we draft them in dynasty and redraft. So it might be a good starting point for everybody to go back and watch. If you're thinking about the 2026 draft, you've got a couple weeks before the draft actually happens to go and watch that episode. Me and Dan, it was only an hour. It was a lot of fun.

So how many running backs, wide receivers and tight ends do you think will be drafted in the first round? Of the NFL draft, we're going to get one running back, we're going to get one tight end, and I'm going to say five wide receivers in the first round.

Okay. How many wide resists? Yeah. It'd be fantastic for my three leagues where I have the sixth or the seventh pick Oh yeah, you should be okay having, you should feel okay about having a pick in the middle of round one in a rookie only draft. Yeah, I think the thing to caution people on is draft capital is going to boost some prospects, but if it's really a bad draft class, somebody has to go in round one. Right.

Maybe shouldn't be quite the boost that it normally is. Yeah. I mean, there are so many. We're going to get a receiver on Cleveland. We're going to get a receiver on Miami. and you're going to have to make the call on, is this receiver in a position to succeed, given the rest of the offense in those two places specifically?

There are just a lot of wide receiver busts at the end of round one. Like, I don't know that we should call them busts yet, but like Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall, Xavier Leggett, Keon Coleman. Guy in Buffalo. Yeah, then Lamacconki was the next. Keon Coleman was round two, wouldn't he? He was the first pick of round two.

close enough. Totally different. Ladd McComkey was a second. Jalen Polk won 37th overall in that draft. And this was a great receiver draft too. This was Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik neighbors, Romo Dunezay in the top ten.

Those guys have all produced multiple great fantasy seasons. But it was a great receiver or one between the three of them. But you know what I'm saying? I mean, it was a strong class. It was a strong class.

Those guys were going at the end of round one. Anyway, okay, let's get into buying the breakout. You get to the 27 draft already? Yeah, I know, right? Please. Garrett Wilson is the first guy on my list. He played seven games.

One of them, it was after he had missed a few games. He played 38% of the snaps. He left with an injury. He didn't play again all season. If you look at his first six games, he finished top 12 in four of those six games. And it's actually the second straight season, Jamie, that Garrett Wilson has been really good.

a top 13 wide receiver per game for the first six games. What happened two years ago? They traded for Devante Adams. What happened this past year? He got hurt and barely played again rest of season. So, yeah, I mean, are you buying that he is a top 13 wide receiver if he doesn't have to deal with, you know, a Devante Adams on his team,

which he has been per game each of the last two seasons in some way of looking at it? Yes and no. I'm certainly buying that there's the potential for that. He's got to stay healthy. And obviously the quarterback situation for the Jets has to be productive, whether that's Gino Smith for the entirety of the year or wherever they draft or add to this quarterback group. Most likely I would guess through the draft, but can sustain the level of production that Garrett Wilson needs. But really at this point, it's health because I think what you saw from him last year in the role. of being the alpha, and if you want to put the 20-24 season as well, you know, before the Devante Adams trade, okay, it's fine. But like it just felt like this was what we've been waiting to see, this type of production, this type of player, this type of opportunity, and he was delivering.

And so now can he stay healthy and do it for, you know, let's say 13 plus games? You know, at this point, I would settle for 10 plus games. But obviously, if he does it the majority of the season, then we could be talking about a top 10 10 guy. So you don't have to draft him as a top 13 wide receiver. I think that's the benefit of this. And as we've said many times, it feels like receiver is, you know, the drop-off gets, unfortunately, happens pretty quickly in terms of where we're looking at from the drafts we've done and certainly how last year finished.

But this is the type of guy similar to a Chris Olavé or as we've seen a couple times in the last, you know, four or five years like a Chris Godwin, you know, a guy that you take a little bit later, he's not going to be that late, but a little bit later, and ends up being a superstar. You know, so he has that type of pedigree. He has that type of sample size in a small capacity. Now he's just got to do it over the course of a full season. And if he does, you're going to be thrilled with the type of player that you're getting. So I'm going to look for this type of guy probably.

I'm going to look for Garrett Wilson, you know, depending on how I build my team and how receiver goes, mid to late round three, hopefully round four. If he delivers that type of production, this is a league winning type of player. All right. we've got to take a quick break. I'll get everybody else's thoughts on Garrett Wilson when we come back. I'll show you his 17 game paces in his healthy games or games he's played more than half the snaps in his four years. They're pretty consistent. So kind of gives you an idea of maybe what to expect from Garrett Wilson, but he's a pretty fascinating player because quite frankly, statistically, he's been pretty bad since he's coming to the NFL.

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Welcome back. Okay, Dave, what do you think went right for Garrett Wilson last year and what needs to go right? Will it go right again for him this year? 9.6 targets per game in his first five games, four touchdowns in his first five games. And that was with Justin Fields under center for most of it. There was a game in there where Tarad Taylor played. That needs to continue. And I'm fairly optimistic at will because we saw in 2024, he averaged 9.1 targets

per game. He earns him. He's a great route runner. He's a diverse route runner. He can run anything. And as of now, there isn't really anybody else that's really going to challenge him for that mantle in New York. And it's a team that's probably going to be playing in a lot of competitive games or trailing in

a bunch of games. And I know Gino Smith's quarterback and the track record of receivers with Gino isn't great, but I do think that volume will be the number one reason why Gareth Wilson will be a good fantasy wide receiver. Heath, your take on Garrett Wilson? I would be 0% surprised if he outscores Malik Neighbors this year. I think he is a mid-wide receiver two. I've got him projected for 14 and a half fantasy points per game. I'd also be not that surprised if the Jets are just an absolute disaster, and he has 85 catches for just over 1,000 yards and score six touchdowns, and we're all kind of disappointed. Let me show you his 17-game pace in all four seasons. I took out three games.

I took out two games as a rookie and one game last year. These are the only games in his career where he didn't hit 50% of the snaps. And nope, that's not it. Sorry, I think this is it. I put it in a word, Doc. So pardon. That's outstanding. Let me get my glasses.

It's roughly 1,100 yards every year. The last two years, 101, 102 catches. That's been the 17-game pace. The last two years, seven touchdowns. And ironically, this year, the Jets threw, they threw like 15 touchdowns, 19 touchdown, something horrible. And he was on pace for 11.

So he actually had a high touchdown, a higher touchdown rate this year. I mean, he missed so much time. I'm sure those touchdowns would have been high. Right. Well, not really. Like, that's a good question, but the, let me tell you what the passing offense was. The passing offense in the six games that he played healthy, the jets were on pace for 2,981 yards, which is obviously awful, and 20 touchdowns and only three interceptions. They averaged 28 pass attempts per game. So he did this in a really bad passing environment, but he's not a guy that's ever hit the 1,200 yard mark or ever been on pace for 1,200 yards. He finally had a good touch. down season since coming into the league. His numbers are just, they're just not that good, Garrett Wilson. Yards per target, yards per outrun, yards per catch, explosive play rate.

He's an absolutely terrible explosive play rate. He doesn't do that much after the catch. It's kind of weird because I don't think he's that, I don't think he's a bad player. Well, I mean, these numbers aren't bad. They're bad if you expect a guy to be a top 12 wide receiver. They're pretty bad. I mean, they're pretty below average to bad in almost every one of those stats. I mean, this is going to be one of these guys that we just continue to say,

what if he gets a quarterback, you know? And so the hope would be he gets something to help him. It's not going to be most likely the start of 2026, maybe the end of 2026 if, let's say it's Ty Simpson and he becomes that Tyler Shuck type of player for the Jets and can step in middle point of the year and elevate the guys around him like Shuck did with the Lave. So there's a lot of ifs with this. Again, I don't think you should be reaching for Garrett Wilson,

but if he hits, he's going to hit, I think, better than anything he's done so far, maybe outside the touchdowns that he was on base for last year. Heath, I think it's the catch rate for him. Since he entered the league, Garrett Wilson is 86th. There are 130 wide receivers with 100 or more targets in the last four years. He's 86th in catch rate, and he's only 90th in A dot. That should be higher. He's 95th in yards per catch.

He's 104th in yards per target. He's 102nd and explosive play rate. That's out of 130 wide receivers with 100 or more targets in that stretch. I was just explaining catch rate to my 16-year-old yesterday because he was under the impression that catch rate was only including balls that, like, hit guys' hands. And I think it's probably worth remembering. Like, I know. Zach Wilson, Mike White, Joe Flacco, Chris Treveller, Trevor Simeon, Tim Boyle, Aaron Rogers, to Rod Taylor, Justin Fields. he has played with a lot of quarterbacks who have targeted him

and not put the ball in a place where he could catch it. Well, I mean, that's probably true. Do you think that explains why he's 86th in catch rate out of 130 wide receivers? He's Garrett Wilson. He should be better than this. He should be, look again, and he still, he doesn't make big plays. Now, I've watched. Did you hear that list of names?

I did, but what about George Pickens? Like, George Pickens in his first three seasons had much better numbers. and again in his fourth season. Like George Pickens, yards per target, yards per catch. This guy made big plays. Garrett Wilson doesn't. Now, I think it's most of the quarterback's fault, too, because I've watched the people.

I mean, the fact that he had a 66% catch rate the year that he played with Aaron Rogers, I think indicates that it's probably the quarterbacks. Probably. All right. Let's move on to George Pickens, who was the number six wide receiver per game. He had an incredible season.

He had nine touchdowns, over 1,400 yards, and 17. games and didn't play that much in week 18. His numbers were even better if you want to remove that. But either way, just so good. Dave, are you buying the George Pickens breakout? Because that was his first season finishing in the top 30. Yeah, I mean, I think he's going to be top 12-ish type of wide receiver moving forward.

We talked about him earlier. I don't think it was this week. It might have been last week. I can't remember. But he had one of your bus. Right. His numbers were considerably better when CDLAM was out. When CDLAM played, there were 12 games with Lamb that doesn't include week 18.

He averaged only 16.1 PPR points per game and 8.3 targets per game. Obviously, that's great, but I don't know if that makes him worthy of being taken where he was in the fantasy pros consensus rankings. I thought that that was a little bit too high. Does that mean that I think that he's going to be a total bust? No. I just think that he was ranked a little too soon, and I would have taken some other players ahead of him at the time. And as long as Dallas is going to be one of these offenses

that's going to keep throwing the ball, and I think they will be, that's going to mean great things for both lamb and pickings. And I think a fair expectation should be in that neighborhood of 16 ppr points per game. Jamie, so what Dave just said includes weeks one and two. He wasn't really all that involved in weeks one and two. This is the sample size of pickens with C.D. Lamb. after lamb, the next four games with Lamb out was insane.

It was 1,800-yard, 21 touchdown pace for Pickens. So how about the last 10 games? Where did these guys both rank? Last 10 games, week 7 through 17, I'm not even going to count week 18. George Pickens was the number 7 wide receiver overall, number 11 per game. CD Lamb was the number 9 wide receiver overall, number 13 per game. They both averaged 16 to 17 PPR fantasy points per game. Dak Prescott was on pace for 4,871 yards, 29 touchdowns, 12 picks.

So he was actually better than Lamb. Lamb had a few more targets. But what do you think went right for Pickens, why he was able to have this amazing breakout season? I think it was a combination of showing his quarterback, his coach, and maybe even himself what he can do with a great quarterback when there's not another alpha receiver on the field. So that time that Lamb was out, really, I think.

boosted everybody's confidence in Pickens, including himself. I think obviously playing in a better environment with a great quarterback, you know, for lack of better words, you know, at least an above average quarterback. And Dak Prescott was probably the best thing for him, you know, go back to what Heath said about Garrett Wilson and what's been lacking for him. Pickens, you sort of compared to. Pickens clearly had lackluster quarterback play to start his career, and then he gets with Prescott and we see what he's capable of doing.

And then I think being in a contract year, you know, so I'm almost hopeful that he doesn't get a long-term extension, plays on the franchise tag, has another big year, and then maybe gets the payday that he's looking for. But in the case of what Pickens is still capable of doing, you know, I think you just put him in this offense. And hopefully we're looking at another great receiver duo where both guys can, you know, perform at a high level and give us the production that we're looking for without one necessarily negating the other to a point where it's a problem. You know, I thought CD Lamb was a little bit of problem last year. You know, touchdowns were certainly an issue. So, you know, you like to see Lamb bounce back to a level that.

that we're comfortable with when you're drafting him in round one. But I do think, you know, Day has a point where, you know, it might be a little bit too soon to be drafting pickings in round two. But I think, again, when you look at the range of wide receivers that are going to go in that spot, the names again being, you know, probably trying to think it might start that run. But like, you know, after we get past Lamb, London, Jefferson, you know, this is where picking starts to come into play. Rice, you know, this is where we start to see, you know, George Pickens' name being mentioned. You have to probably pull the trigger on it if you want to get him on your fantasy roster.

So I would prefer him in round three. I think we're going to see late round two, early round three is where his ADP will probably settle. And hopefully he continues to be just as involved, if not maybe more than Lamb, if they continue to feature him like they did. Clearly Jerry Jones likes him, clearly Brian Schottnheimer likes him. And clearly, Doc Prescott likes him. So as long as there's no holdout, I think you're looking at George Pickens. Dickens is having a chance for another season at this level. Yeah, he,

I mean, there were 615 snaps last year where Lamb and Pickens were both on the field. Because even if you look at that post week seven, there's a game where CD Lam played like 45% of the snaps. You look at the 600 snaps where they played together, which is probably 60% of the snaps they'll play over a full season. It was a 29% target share for Lamb, a 24% target share for Pickens.

Pickens had, what, 90 targets, caught 62 of them at 946 yards. Like, that's just on six, a little over 600 snaps with Lamb on the field. So I think both of these guys can be top 12 wide receivers. Lamb, I only have one spot ahead of Pickens in the rankings, but it's a different tier. So for me, it's Jefferson and Pickens and, AJ Brown and Chris Olavé are kind of all in that tier after the seven wide receivers that I have clearly at the top. One thing that changed, two things that changed for Pickens that I love was the Adot went down and the route tree changed. By far, the lowest go route percentage.

He ran more in-breaking routes. He just, I think, was used too much as a vertical guy in Pittsburgh and was a more versatile player with Dallas. showed his skills. Pittsburgh also didn't throw as much. That's true. That's true. But he didn't have this. He did his first year with Deonté Johnson,

but he didn't have this kind of target competition in Pittsburgh. But everything was better. And you know what? When Dak Prescott's healthy, his last four healthy seasons where he's played more than 12 games, they've thrown for 4,660 or more yards. He's just so good. Thomas, can we bring up the graphic showing

the efficiency of these three receivers. We're going to talk about OLAVe. So 130 wide receivers with 100 or more targets in, it says first four NFL seasons. That's just for the three guys here. It's over the last four seasons. Wilson, Olaube, and Pickens, they're all in the same draft class.

So Wilson and Olave have had a much higher target per out run rate. Yards per out run, Wilson's 45th, Olave 17th, Picken's 24th. Again, this is out of 130 wide receivers. But look at Pickens what he does when he's targeted, fifth in yards per catch, sixth in yards per target,

23rd in fantasy points per target, whereas Olavay is 72nd in fantasy points per target. And Garrett Wilson is 110th in fantasy points for target. Big play. That is, yeah. Like, that's directly related to the first number that you should, the first number, all the way to the left. The target per route run, right? The target per route run. Like, guys who get a lot of.

targets don't score as many fantasy points per target. That's interesting. I mean, I wonder where like Pooka Naku, I mean, maybe I shouldn't compare them to the best of the best. Right. Yes. I think we could take the, like, Jemar Chase and Pukin and JSN last year out of that conversation probably.

You know. But these guys are not those guys. I feel like Jamar Chase is because generally speaking, guys who get a lot of targets, those targets are closer to the line of scrimmage. Yeah. And targets downfield. if they come more sporadically, generally, but they do turn into more fantasy points.

Okay. So you don't really, so when you compare these three guys, Wilson, Olavé, and Pickens, they're going to go in a similar range. You know, Wilson will probably be last, but you don't care that much about the efficiency because Pickens crushes the other guys in efficiency.

Even Olave and his breakout year last year didn't really have an efficient season, right? I strongly prefer Pickens, but the biggest reason why is that Pickens is playing with Dak Prescott. Okay. Yep. Yeah, I thought what was remarkable about Pickens is that he had really good efficiency even before going to Dak Prescott.

And I just wonder if he's just an awesome receiver, you know, and finally got a chance to show it. If we're talking about buying the breakout, right? If you give this guy targets, he's going to do a lot with it. It hasn't been the case for the other guys for Wilson and Ayala. It was last. A lot of you saw it last year. You did see it last year, but you didn't see it the previous years.

And this was not the first time he got a lot of targets. He just caught more touchdowns this past year. So did George Pickens? Yeah, that's also what it comes down to with these guys. Right. Like Pickens, the three years before this year, got a 57, a 59, and a 61% catch rate. And he'd never scored more than five touchdowns in a year.

Then he gets to go play with a real quarterback. And he scores nine touchdowns and has a 68% catch rate. Yeah. But also the catch rate had a lot to do with the ADod and the route tree. I think it's all of it. I mean, you know, you got to put the whole package together. Like Johnny Airport just put a comment in the chat, you know, what a difference a decent quarterback makes.

And I think we obviously saw that for Pickens. we may have seen it, hopefully have seen it for OLAVe. And I think we're still waiting to see it for Garrett Wilson. All right, so let's talk about OLAVe, because Pickens was number six per game in PPR. Olave was number seven per game. This wasn't one of those years where he, you know,

crushed it in the metrics necessarily. But he just, he was really good. And he did one. Stayed healthy. And he took off with Shuck. I mean, he was much better with Shuck than he was. And that was also after they traded Shaheed, but target share didn't really go up that much. Just the efficiency went way up with Tyler Shuck.

Jamie, what was your take on what happened? How did the breakout happen for Olave? I mean, to me, the biggest thing was he stayed healthy. That's a big part of what's been a problem for him. But, you know, quarterback play, I think improved, you know, what he's dealt with. Not that Derrick Carr was bad, but I think Tyler Shuck for him was just a little bit better. But obviously the year before Carr was dealing with injuries, so it was a mess across the board. I think you just look at OLAVe and very similar to the other two guys,

but the potential has kind of always been there, and it was can they get things sort of aligned to, you know, see it and see it happen? And so Kellen Moore's offense, I think, is very suited for high-end receiver production. It's certainly suited, I think, for Olave and for him to be the alpha in this offense. And so we'll see if he's going to get a contract extension. This is another guy you might have to keep an eye on from a holdout perspective. But hopefully everything is fine for him, He shows up and, you know, can get that big deal.

But I think just looking at it right now, you know, we'll see what the NFL draft does. But this receiving course is. And, you know, it's an opportunity for him to go out and have another season where he's going to, you know, be at the top of the leaderboard and targets if he stays healthy and have a chance to be one of the better receivers in the league. So I don't think, again, he's in that same category as the top five or six guys. But in that next group, you know, Keith mentioned, you know, where the tier change happens. I think he's in that, you know, tier three, you know, wide receiver.

range of guys that you should be looking at in the back end of round two certainly falls around three you should be you know excited to take him there um there's just a lot to love about what chry solovey showed last year i think can do it again i think it was very similar to what happened with i mean the jami said it first like he stayed healthy um and then otherwise it was very similar to the terry mcclorin breakout from a year ago yes like the the 2023 chris o'allave and In 2025 Chris Olave are not that much different, except that Chris Olavi scored nine touchdowns last year. So, right. So doesn't that make you a little hesitant on Chris Olave this year?

Because I thought you're going to- I'm not ranking him where he finished last year. No, but where are you taking him the third round? He's in that in that group of round three wide receivers, yeah. And I agree. I mean, again, it might sound like I'm obsessed with advanced metrics. I think Olavi and Garrett Wilson are examples of why advanced metrics aren't really, can be deceiving. These guys are better than the numbers they've put up.

But I have- What sample size are you using the advanced metrics? Because the ones that you showed over a four-year span, it's like there's so many different versions of those guys. Not really. That's the thing. I mean, yes, there are going to be some variations. But Olave, his first year, I think, was like, very efficient. But this guy hasn't exactly, you know, he hasn't been like an elite.

receiver based on advanced metrics. And he wasn't last year either. He just got more targets, especially at the end of the year, and he scored more touchdowns. He had a huge fantasy playoffs, by the way. The last three games of the year really boosted his season. He scored over 20 points in all three of them. But it was the touchdowns. Despite the Saints throwing 19 touchdowns on the year, he had nine.

He had 10 in the first three seasons combined. So if he's, look, I don't know that Tyler Shuck's going to be a great quarterback. If he's on a team that's throwing 24 touchdowns and he gets. At six, I feel like he could be a bust. Like Terry McLaurin was a bus. I know there was a holdout, but Terry McLaurin had three touchdowns in 10 games last year. You can't. You can't compare McLaurin 20, 24 and 2025.

I think you can. I think he... No, I mean, the holdout was a disaster that's been somewhat proven for guys that have held out. His quarterback missed the majority of the year. I mean... I get it, but also it was more. in line with the rest of his career. All I'm saying is, you know, if we look at Olavé, did anything really change for him other

than the touchdowns? The coach, the quarterback. The quarterback. His target share was a little bit higher than it was in 20203 also, but part of that's probably just Rashid Shahi left. And Michael Thomas was still there for half of a year in 20203, if you can believe that. So you guys buying it with him? I think you got to buy Olaave and Garrett Wilson with the same sort of, you know,

you view them sort of the similar way. You know, like you're hopeful that what we saw sample size for Wilson, year for OLAVe, can carry over a much more confident in OLAV than Wilson, you know, because again, the things that you look for are there,

or at least the two of the things you look for are there, coach and quarterback. You know, with the Jets, like the quarterback situation should scare the hell out of you for Garrett Wilson. The hell is just still scare you for Garrett Wilson. I think in the case of OLAV, barring a holdout, like we could be looking at a guy that, I don't know, ascends to elite status, you know, if you want to start to, you know, put the advanced metrics with this,

but can certainly be in that next group of guys. And so, like we were talking with Nico Collins, like, I think if Olavé has that type of career track, I don't think he has maybe the ceiling that Nico has if everything goes right for both of those guys, because we've seen what Nico can do. But just a very good fantasy-wide receiver that you should be happy to have on your team, if you tell me I'm getting 17 games, or again, I always like to use the 13 number, 13 plus games of Chris Olavé in this role,

I think he's going to deliver a pretty good number for you. So, again, I don't want to take him in round two. I've seen where our drafts and our receiver, you know, where receivers come off the board, unfortunately I think that's where the range puts him in. You know, so if you take Bijan or Gibbs, Gibbs, Bejan, and one or two, and you come back on that turn, this is the type of receiver you're looking at

if you want to take a receiver in a round with your second pick. I just, and I know it kind of frustrated you how much we focus on the quarterback. But I think even like when you're showing that four-year window and a fourth of it for George Pickens is with Dak Prescott, like it's, we need Chris Olavé or Garrett Wilson to get someone close to Dak Prescott and then they will be,

and Alave did it last year, because he scored the touchdowns, but I think they will be as great as George Pickens was. Pickens before last year, and oddly, his route depth was actually higher last year than it had been in Pittsburgh's, which I guess they probably just had him run fewer screen routes or something. Maybe.

But his yards per route run were 10% better last year than it's ever been before. His first downs per route run were almost double what it's been before. He had more red zone, in zone targ, everything just got better. And his success rate had never been about 48% in Pittsburgh. It was 64% last year. I think it's a really good lesson to learn. But if you look at the first three seasons of his career in Pittsburgh,

he's not going to be as good as Olivae and yards per route run because Pickens didn't get targeted as much. But yards per target, he crushes both of them. yards per catch. I assume he, George Pickens, crushes both of them. Yeah, he was seven.

Right. In his first three seasons, he was seventh best in yards per catch. This was his Pittsburgh years and big play rate, I'm assuming he's going to... But the guys who were above him,

and I don't know who they are, but I would guess the top 10 and yards per catch were not guys who generally get a lot of targets. Well, how about explosive play rate? I mean, this is the thing about Olave and Wilson is that they just,

especially Wilson. They just don't make big plays. My take is I actually watched the deep balls for the last two years for Garrett Wilson, and a lot of it is on the quarterbacks. I mean, we agree. The quarterbacks are a huge problem. But I'm just, I'm putting it out there. On paper, Garrett Wilson's, he has really troubling metrics.

I don't really care that much. I think, look, it's, pickings would have been drafted higher than we all know this at this point. You know, if injury and some of the personality, problems that he may have had. I don't want to say off-field stuff, but personality stuff. He would have gotten drafted. He would have been taken higher

in the NFL draft. Put them all on Dallas. They're all opposite CD-LAM. Do they all do what Pickens did last year? They certainly could. They certainly could, right? So that's the thing. And I think in the case of, like,

you just individualize all three of them, Pickens got the quarterback upgrade. A lot of it may have gotten the quarterback up. So that's my question. Let me just finish with this. We've got to take a break. Do you guys seem pretty confident. Well, my sense is you seem confident in Tyler Shuck.

I know Gino Smith, Jamie, you said it's got to scare the hell out of you. Absolutely. But Tyler Shuck, how confident are you in him, you know, delivering a good season for Chris Olave or being part of that season? I'll say this. If we knew we're sitting here a year from now, God willing, and it's Chris Olavet coming off another productive year. He got a contract extension. And Tyler Shuck built off of what he did. I think we're talking about Chris Olave as a borderline.

top five receiver if it goes the same way. He averaged almost 19 PPR points with Shuck in half a season last year. So yeah. Right now, it's this is what we just got finished talking about in the previous show. Well, Brian Thomas finished the year like a monster in his rookie season. Lab McCawkey finished his rookie season like a monster. Like this feels similar to that more so than it does the other scenario of we're banking on a small sample. size of receiver and quarterback and now attaching it to the following year.

The difference is we were drafting Thomas and, Thomas for sure, but McCawkey in this range. And so I think Olavay's body of work obviously matters a little bit here. Again, we're saying quarterback, quarterback. I think coach matters just as much. Getting Kellen Moore is huge for Olavi. It's huge for the Saints, you know, and this is where the Jets and Garrett Wilson are lacking. You have a huge if at quarterback. And I think still a huge if, even if Frank Wright comes back and is, you know,

rejuvenated and can, you know, relive some of the, the high-end magic that he had. It's still an if it wouldn't shock me at all if the jets get off to a slow start and a ring, it's fired. I mean, you know, there's just so much uncertainty with that team, especially if they somehow botched the draft, knowing that they got all this draft capital. So I'm hopeful that things move in the right direction for Garrett Wilson. But yes, when you start to say confidence, scale, you know, when you want to do all your, you know, or meters. Yeah, confidence a meter.

It's pickings in a runaway and then Alave and then Garwellson. Another guy who had a huge finish last year with a young quarterback was, sorry, two years ago, was Cortland Sutton. And then Bo Nix took a big step back and Sutton was just kind of okay. So I don't know. I guess that's sort of on my mind is I could see Tyler Shuck taking a step back. He was good. He wasn't great, but he wasn't supposed to be. It wasn't a big prospect or anything like that.

And he was an old prospect too. So, yeah, I think what I was trying to say with all these metrics is that if we can agree that Garrett Wilson and Chris Oliva have been held back by bad quarterback play throughout their career, we have to ask the question, how good do we feel about their quarterback play in 26? We're not questioning them. We still question their quarterbacks. We don't question that with George Pickens.

And I think for many people, it's going to come down to how confident are you in Tyler Shuck, and then we'll, you know, we'll see how that plays out. All right. Good stuff, guys. We got Javante Williams and a couple of quarterbacks to talk about on the other side of the break. We'll be right back. Javante Williams, top 12 running back on a per game basis and overall.

First season finishing inside the top 24 per game. Great year for him. And Heath, are you wearing a Raven shirt? I am not. This is a Liberty Flame shirt. Oh, okay. Looks like a Raven shirt. Looks good on you.

No, thanks. Appreciate it. What happened for Javante Williams last year? Heath? He got used as a workhorse running back. Is it that simple? Pretty much. Yeah.

Yeah, I would say it pretty much is. He had two more carries per game than he's ever had in his career. He had 18 touches per game. He scored touchdowns. He was on a good offense. should we take him ahead of Chris Oliva and Garrett Wilson? No.

What's the format? Maybe Wilson, but probably not. Okay, how about half PPR? I'll make it harder for you. Half PPR. I'd still probably lean toward the wide receiver there. I think he's in that range of low-end RB2s for me,

or mid-range RB2s, if you want to be generous. and there's just a lot more of those than there are wide receivers that we can talk ourselves into getting excited about. I can find a running back in round seven or round six that I think can give me pretty close to Javante Williams. We get to round six or seven in the wide receivers and it's now maybe to feel better after the rookies get here, but it doesn't right now. you said somebody's name on Monday show that I think is maybe this year's Giovante. Somebody's asked the question. So would you rather have Giovante Williams in round four or assuming that there's nobody added Tony Pollard in round six? Oh, Tony Pollard.

Yeah. That's why I would probably say something. So do you think Tai J. Spears has a noteworthy role? Because, I mean, there's just really nobody else in this backfield that's threatening Javante. Well, I think that's why you're taking Giovante two rounds earlier. But again, you know, if you're saying you can get Garrett Wilson

and Tony Pollard versus Giovante Williams and Christian Watson. Like, that's probably the comps you're looking at. So why are we talking about Javante Williams as only a fourth round pick? He was, like I said, a top 12 running back. We love the Dallas

offense. He is a workhorse. he averaged 4.8 yards per carry. So just to throw it out there, as I understand where you're coming from, but just to put it out there, Dave, why not more excitement about Javante after this season he just had? Well, we're familiar with what he did

before he went to Dallas, and I think it's a little bit different for running backs than it is for wide receivers. Like, obviously, who you play with matters and the offensive line matters and all that, but we've seen Javante Williams not play with efficiency. In fact, we didn't see him play with great efficiency.

in the second half of last season. He averaged 11.8 PPR points per game in his last eight games. A lot of that has to come from the fact that he only scored four times, but that's an example of what he looks like when he's not getting a ton of touchdowns like he did in the first half of the year. It's total yardage also fell by like 15 yards per game. It's that kind of stuff that makes you a little bit nervous. We know that Javante Williams isn't a phenomenal talent.

It's all about Dallas having nobody else. They added him with the idea of being, okay, we'll begin training camp or the offseason or whatever with him as our passing downs back. And that's an important role in Dallas. And then they just realized that they didn't have anybody else. They didn't really make an effort to bring in anybody else to be a running downs guy. And so Javante was who they had. And he ended up being good for fantasy. I can't say for sure that he can replicate that to a T.

And that's why it's a lot easier, even in half PPR, to lean toward the wide. receivers that have a little bit more upside than Javonte. I've made this point before. I'll make it again. Javante, just a plus for him, I'd say, is that I don't think he could possibly be as bad as a receiver as he was last year. He had the worst yards per catch and yards per target for a running back with 30 or more targets in at least 15 seasons. And so bad.

I talked about this and it was true for a couple of years with Rommandre and then last year he was good as a past catching back, but historically speaking, when you were that bad as a pass catching running back by those measurements, you just don't get as many targets the following year. Yeah, I,

yeah, but this was a really bad year for Javante, right? I mean, he could bounce back and then who was they going to say? He's not really ever been good in that role, has he? I don't know, but he's been a good pass protector.

The number I was using when I, used to do the Remandre Stevenson thing was below, I think, four yards per target. And he's been below that now in three of his last four seasons. I only had 2.2 catches per game. So it's not like receptions really got him much of his production anyway. Okay, let's get to the quarterbacks here. And I'll lump them together. Drake May, QB3 per game.

Trevor Lawrence, QB6 per game. Jamie, which do you think is more attainable in 2026? Drake May is QB3 or Trevor Lawrence is QB3? QB6. Drake May is QB6. No. I would say Drake May by a lot. I probably would lean Drake May, especially if Faye J. Brown's added.

That's an easy one. But look, I think you got to give Trevor Lawrence, and again, coaching matters here, Liam Cohen, some credit, because Liam Cohen in a year calling plays for Baker Mayfield, he was awesome and his rushing production was awesome. And then Trevor Lawrence gets with Liam Cohen last year and his production was awesome and his running production was awesome. And so I think that matters. You know, May is fascinating because we saw he was very efficient last year.

He was great throwing the ball down the field. You brought this up a number of times, Adam, how he didn't throw as much as we may see this year because the schedule was so much in their favor and the way that they won games. If you look at the receiving course right now, I think it's easy to. lean toward the Jacksonville receiving core and what they have and their weapons if Brian Thomas bounces back, if Parker Washington can replicate

that, if Jacobi Myers is Jacobi Myers and whatever Travis Hunter has. Like, you know, this Patriot's receiving core is, hey, we added Romeo Dobbs. Like that just doesn't feel very exciting right now. And so that's the little bit of a drawback. But I mean, obviously you're looking

at, you know, Drake May did in year two what we've been waiting for Trevor Lawrence to do for his career. and for a full season. You know, so, you know, yes, at the start of the show, to Dave, you know, like, what was different for Trevor Lawrence or, you know, what made Trevor Lawrence successful in those final few games? Because we've seen it before because, yes, we've seen it before.

In a five-game sample size, an eight-game sample size, this sample size, that sample. So we just haven't seen it over the course of the season. So I'm hopeful that this is the year Trevor Lawrence puts it all together. But, you know, again, we feel we've fallen into this trap before, and hopefully we're not going to fall into it again. So long-winded answer to say, I guess, Drake May is probably more replicable than Trevor Lawrence. There are two very important things that were different for Trevor Lawrence.

I think one of them is probably more likely to repeat itself than the other. First off, the thing I'd talked about for four years with him is he just did not throw touchdowns. And he had a career high 5.2% touchdown rate. That's not outlandish. And I'd be willing to believe in this system he could possibly repeat a 5.2% touchdown rate. the second one was that he had nine rushing touchdowns and scored more than five fantasy points per game with his rushing. And yeah,

I think there's a chance that he is a good running quarterback. I don't anticipate that he's going to finish second amongst all quarterbacks and rushing touchdowns again. Dave, what's more replicable? Drake May finishing his QB3 or Lawrence is QB6? It's May, even with the concerns about what his receiving core looks like because his rushing numbers are definitely replicable.

We're talking about four rushing touchdowns. I think it was for Drake May. That number could go up. And the rushing yardage was solid for him too. I think it was in the 400 yard range. Correct me if I'm wrong. It's 450. Yeah.

Yeah, thank you. So better completion rate, better metrics overall, yards per attempt. And he did it with, I mean, I can't look at his receiving court and say that it was good. I mean, or great. I should use the word great. It was good.

And he got a great year out of boot. and Stefan Diggs was okay. Tight ends helped a lot. Anything else that the Patriots can do to improve their receiving core will make it easy for people to buy into Drake May without issue. And I think the offensive line will get better. Remember, that was an issue for the Patriots last year. And it's not to say that Trevor Lawrence was going to suck,

because I like his receiving core as well. Jamie talked about it. I like his offensive line. And one other thing in Trevor Lawrence's favor. big fat question market running back, which we've talked about at nauseam. So I think that there's going to be room for Trevor Lawrence to throw a bunch, run around, not nine touchdowns run around, but four, and still be a good thrower like he was in the second half of last year.

You know, I think there is a stat that I should be looking up of completed air yards or completed air yards per completion because Drake May had a 72 or 73 percent. completion percentage, 72% with 9.1 air yards per attempt. And I just went back and started looking if anybody came even close to that in recent years. Deshawn Watson had a year that was close to that. Ryan Tannahill had a year like that. And then obviously he never got back to that. So I think what Drake May did was probably too good to be true.

It's complete over 70% of your, well over 70% of your passes with the second highest A dot in the NFL. That's insane. So that'll regress a little, I think. But, yeah, Heath, I'm glad you mentioned the rushing touchdowns. Trevor Lawrence, I just want to show, Thomas, if you could, I'm just going to switch graphics. Yeah, I'm going to show his true media profile. I'll zoom in for you there. But as you can see, well, you can't really see, but you can see.

Not much changed. Completion percentage, kind of bad for the second year in a row. yards per attempt's been exactly the same basically for four straight years. The touchdown rate did go up. The interception rate went down a little. It was those rushing touchdowns that saved him. Maybe the passer rating wasn't even really that good for him. Explosive play rate wasn't anything special.

But there's the question, right? We keep talking about the last show and this show, guys who had these great stretches late in the year. Heath, he did average 8.4 yards per attempt. In that last stretch, I think it was the last, what do we say, 10 games for Trevor Lunds? I keep getting the splits mixed up. Last seven games. When he was the number one quarterback in fantasy, he averaged 8.4 yards per attempt, which is phenomenal.

He averaged 31 fantasy points per game. You know, how do you look at that stretch and compare it to the full season, which was nothing special? I would rather trust the full season, especially when we're talking about a guy who's a veteran in the NFL. So I think just, and I did look. up just to check your we only have completed air yards per attempt since 2018 okay um drake may's 5.4 completed air yards per attempt is the second highest mark since 2018 only six quarterbacks have been five yards or higher who's number one tanna hill uh tana hill is not on the list i don't think he was uh i think that season was probably pre 2018 oh yeah yeah i think i think

Maybe. Tua. In 2022 was 5.7. 2020, Deshawn Watson. 2019, James Winston. 2020.

Oh, 2019. Also, DAC was over five and 2023, Bruck Purdy. So a lot of guys who really followed that up with exactly the same thing

the next year. Did they? No. Oh, okay. The one thing that I like about Trevor Lawrence's situation. Baker Mayfield, 2024 with Liam Cohen, career high passing yards,

career high rushing yards, career high rushing touchdowns. Trevor Lawrence, career high rushing yards, career high rushing touchdowns. I think career high passing yards are only career high passing touchdowns. Baker in 2024, average 22.2 rushing yards per game. Trevor Lawrence, I think,

is a better athlete. Was that 21.1 rushing yards per game. So nine rushing touchdowns is not something you want to count on. But can't he be five? he could be i think that that career high for baker was three it was three rush tests yeah right yeah so but again better better athlete so that's why i said five you know to me five is is something that's on the high end should be on the high end so i think you're just looking at if he's going to get an opportunity to rush for around 20 yards per game that's going to give him chances

to make plays and if he's getting chances to make plays with now arguably the best receiving core of his career and probably the best coach of his career. There's a lot to like about Trevor Lawrence at his cost. If you're talking about the cost of these two quarterbacks and you want to wait, you're waiting for Trevor Lawrence. I've got Lawrence at 368 and 4.1 in the projections for next year. So that's, yeah, right between the three and the five. And Baker Mayfield is a guy actually that took a very strong finish to the 2020

season and then actually broke out in 2024. you know, continued it. So sometimes those late season services do the good coach to good coach. If you want to consider Dave Canales, a good coach. So Canales to Cone. Yeah. All right.

Anything else? Dave, anything else to say? No, I think the biggest takeaway from today is when we're considering these players moving forward, it's really about weighing what's changed. And is it for the better or is it for the worse?

And I look at what. what's changed with these quarterbacks, just using these two as an example. And I think Lawrence's situation is just as good, if not better. And Drake May's situation is about the same as well. And that would encourage me on those two players specifically, that what they did last year could be replicated again to a degree. We agree on the rushing touchdowns for Trevor Lawrence. That seems a little bit too high.

But I think that's the kind of the exercise that we kind of have to go through with every player. What's changed and is it for the better? And if it's not for the better, then it's up to you how fast you want to head for the hills on somebody like Garrett Wilson as an example. Because I think his situation is not necessarily better, even though there's different quarterback, different coordinator and all that stuff. I think what's fascinating with Drake May is where he'll get drafted and how high he'll get drafted if they do get A.J. Brown. So, like, right now we're seeing him get selected as a top three quarterback. Because Does he go QB1 if A.J. Brown has added.

Yeah, that'd be pretty awesome. I'd be surprised if he went QB1. QB2, I would not be surprised. I think he was the first quarterback taken. And maybe. But I would rather have Josh Allen. I think most people would too. If it's not A.J. Brown, it could be a rookie.

They're going to add somebody. A rookie is not going to push up Drake May's. No. Nope. Not like Ager Brown. To an extent. If you get AJ Brown, it's going to send people spiraling, I think, to a degree that may push him into a bust position. All right.

We're going to finish the show since Jamie actually personally requested it earlier without saying it, but said it without saying it, with the confidence o meter. I'm going to look at the fantasy pros. What did you say? I apologize retroactively. He's a ten on the Apologyometer. Yeah, I love the Apologyometer. That one I get a lot. The confidence ometer, I'm going to give you the fantasy pros consensus rankings for these six guys, and you tell me a zero to ten, how confident are you that they will meet this ADP, that they will be this good?

George Pickens, wide receiver 10. 10. 7. 7. Chris Olave, wide receiver 11. 10. 7. Garrett Wilson, wide receiver 17.

10. Five. Seven. Jeeb's making a mockery of the confidence. I'm not. I'm very confident this is the range of these guys. I'm being serious. Javante Williams, RB 17.

10. 3. 8. Drake May, QB3. 8. 6. Trevor Lawrence, QB 10. 10.

4. 8. I don't know what that accomplished. I'm sorry, Heath. Did you say a number? I said four. Oh. Okay.

I used this really strange process where if I had the guy ranked lower than you said, I said less than five. And if I said the guy ranked higher, I said more than five. And if I had the guy ranked the same, I said five. Yeah, I went. If you had them in a range of where I haven't ranked, that you said 10. It's 100% confidence that Jamie's ranking are going to be right.

No, but that's where I happen going to the season. So why would it not be confident? Johnny Airport says this game is better than who has. more. Yeah. That was who has more. Who has more confidence in Drake May being QV3?

All right. Thanks, guys. Great show. And we got FFT Express coming up where we're going to talk about Ryan Wilson's latest mock draft and how we would feel about some of those destinations.

And we'll get the back. We'll talk to you tomorrow. I'll see you. On podcasts.