Fantasy Football Today - Chris Godwin Profile: Top 5 Potential? (07/30 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to power your scale with no preset spending limit. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. In the games that Chris Gobbin played without Antonio Brown last year, he was on pace for 180 targets,

Starting point is 00:00:27 141 catches, 1,566 yards, and seven touchdowns. What can we expect without Antonio Brown this year? Let's ask Jacob Gibbs right now on Fantasy Football Today in five. Okay, it's an eye-popping stat. It's why I love Chris Goblin. That was before the Julio Jones signing. So, Jacob, let's go through it with Chris Godwin here. And what's the first thing you want to let us know about? Yeah, 180 target pace is nuts. I had not heard that. But just looking at his game-by-game and some of his per route stuff,

Starting point is 00:00:56 that doesn't surprise me. Yeah, his 2021 data was really pretty encouraging. Injuries really dampened things for him in 2020. He had followed a pretty consistent trajectory up and had become one of the best receivers in the league and then kind of fell off in 2020. But 2021, he really did rebound in a big way. His target per route run rate was up to 23%. That was the highest of his career to this point in five seasons. It was down to 19% in 2020. Had not been above 21% in any of the seasons prior to 2021. So that was exciting. And then his yard per run rate actually rose from 2020 to 2021,

Starting point is 00:01:32 which is pretty surprising considering that his average depth of target dropped from 10.2 yards to 7.3 yards. He was much better at getting the ball and creating yards after the catch that we've seen from him typically. And so that's exciting to see them, you know, get a little bit more involved in the short yards role and just really feed him targets. And I think that's something that we could see a lot, you know, with, you know, Antonio Brown, like you hinted at. Rob Gronkowski also, you know, vacated here. There's a lot of targets available. And I think they could go to Godwin. He was really finding his footing before he had the ACL injury. You mentioned his pace with Antonio Brown out. And so what I looked at was from week seven on, which was when AB's injury occurred, the ankle injury, the final eight games of Godwin's season,

Starting point is 00:02:18 he was targeted on 27.5% of his routes. So we mentioned earlier 23 was you know easily the highest of his career at this point 27 and a half over 300 routes to close the season out for godwin so that's a pretty pretty substantial sample size there um and it was consistent as well he drew a target on 25 percent of his routes in six of those eight games and he had spike weeks on the you know the games where camp bay really went nuts and threw a ton, 15 targets, 17 targets to close out the year. Those are the two highest marks of his career. Came last year in 2021 with AB off the field. So that's exciting. And I think AB's gone and Julio's replaced him.

Starting point is 00:02:55 And I think people might just kind of assume that there's not much of a change there. But I just want to point out that Antonio Brown is still insanely good. At least the data shows that. We're definitely, we're not talking about Julio Jones here. I love Julio, but his rates have been steadily declining for five straight seasons. Antonio Brown is still drawing targets

Starting point is 00:03:13 and converting yards at like league best rates. So for reference, Julio was targeted on 19% of his routes, averaged 1.76 yards per outrun last year. AB's rates were at freaking 32% and 2.8 yards per outrun. Only seven receivers had a yard per outrun last year ab's rates were at freaking 32 and 2.8 yards per outrun uh only seven receivers had a yard per run rate above 2.25 for the past two seasons davante adams devo samuel jesse jefferson aj brown cooper cup jamar chase antonio brown is the guy who like fits in with all those other you know superstar fantasy receivers um so that is really exciting we're taking a really you really impactful player off the field.

Starting point is 00:03:47 I think that what we've seen, it's going to affect Godwin the most, the Tampa Bay receivers. All right, what about the Gronkowski factor? Does that affect Chris Godwin at all? I think so. I think that the thing we see here with both Brown and Gronk is that they run sort of shorter routes that are a little bit more similar to what we've seen from Godwin. And both these guys have drawn targets at a really high rate,

Starting point is 00:04:08 32% target per hour rate for AB last year was the highest in the NFL. Gronkowski was targeted on 23% of his routes, which is significantly higher than the Titans are going to replace him. And so yeah, just looking at the splits here, it has been Godwin and not Mike Evans who has seen the boost when AB has been off the field and the same seen the boost when AB has been off the field and the same thing when Gronk has been off the field. So with Gronk off the field over the past two years, Chris Godwin has been targeted on 28% of his routes and averaged 2.6 yards per route run compared to 17% target per hour run rate and just under two yards per out run with Gronk on the field. Whereas Mike Evans has been pretty much static with a B on off and Gronk on

Starting point is 00:04:47 off. It's been Godwin who has seen the boost and Linder for net actually. So yeah, it's, I don't know. I don't know if people realize how involved Gronk has been either. The only tight ends that have been targeted at a higher rate last year were Mark Andrews, Darren Waller and George Kittle. So these really are significant losses and the guys who are replacing him became a braid Kyle Rudolph. Like those guys are never targeted on more than 20% of the routes. so these really are significant losses and the guys who are replacing where came up right kyle rudolph like those guys are never targeted on more than 20 percent of the routes um same thing

Starting point is 00:05:10 with um russell gage yeah last year was his highest target brown rate is 22 percent uh that's nothing compared to what we've seen today be so like where do these targets go yeah i hope they go to god when i hope he's healthy that's the big question mark is what can we expect coming off the torn ACL? But where do you have Chris Goblin ranked? I have him at wide receiver 22 and half PBR. And I just got standard rankings. I think he was wide receiver 28. So it's tough.

Starting point is 00:05:36 There's a lot of guys in that range that I really, really am excited for. Like I have a hard time, you know, especially with the injury. Like how do I evaluate him compared to Darnell Mooney? Somebody like Jerry Judy. I'm really excited for those guys. I think he has the potential to blow past that, though. Like, if he's healthy and ready to go and these rates sustain in Tampa Bay's offense and Tampa Bay doesn't, like, you know, really regress in terms of their passing rate like a lot of people expect, the ceiling is there for a top-10 finish for sure.

Starting point is 00:06:00 Okay, quick comment here in the chat. Jacob Gibbs should dress as the Batman for Halloween because I seriously thought he was Robert Pattinson. Wow. Yeah, it's a nice thing to say. Yeah, I can see it. You look a little bit like Team Edward or whatever the hell he is today. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:06:15 All right, give it a shot. It's a great movie, by the way. Thanks, everybody, for watching and listening. Tomorrow, or if you're on YouTube, later in five minutes, we're going to be talking about Leonard Fournette and the Bucs backfield and what to expect there and we'll talk to you then on Fantasy Football today in five.

Fantasy Football Today - Chris Godwin Profile: Top 5 Potential? (07/30 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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