Fantasy Football Today - Chris's Favorite Players for 2023: Super Bowl DFS (02/08 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: February 8, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Yesterday, Dan Schneier gave us an early look at his favorite players for 2023, and today Chris Towers gets a turn! First, Chris will give us a Super Bowl prediction and then he'll make the case for Kyle Pitts as a steal in 2023 Fantasy drafts (6:00) ... News and notes (12:45) and some "Chris Towers Fill in the Blank" (15:25) where Heath gets to make guesses about Chris's life! And then we get more 2023 favorites from Chris: Breece Hall (19:15); Amon-Ra St. Brown (23:25); Jaylen Waddle (27:50); Lamar Jackson (32:30) ... Sia Nejad of the Fantasy Football Today DFS Podcast join us to talk Super Bowl DFS (34:30)! We've got everything you need to know before you set a lineup. Should you favor Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts? DeVonta Smith or A.J. Brown? ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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No, I can. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. It's Chris Towers Hour on Fantasy Football Today. Yesterday, we got Dan Schneier's favorite player for 2023 and a super bowl prediction today we will get that from chris and welcome and heath is here too uh welcome chris hi welcome heath i'm excited that heath's here we do i think he got a haircut he

looks good i got a haircut last week yeah why does it always take people several days to realize? I noticed, Heath. I just didn't want to say anything. Thank you. Let's start the show off the way we did yesterday with Chris gets to answer here. Heath, you'll sit it out until Friday. Blank will win the Super Bowl because blank. The Kansas City Chiefs will win the super bowl because they have patrick mahomes i i think it's i don't want to over complicate things and i think that's a pretty simple

explanation the eagles are a very good team i think like this whole idea that they haven't like that they've played this easy schedule i think is unfair they're a very good team and they earned the the number one seed but like I think the that you can make a fair case that they have not been tested, I think, in the same way that the Chiefs have, and I just I have a little more faith in the guys who have done it before.

Okay. Does it bother you at all that he hasn't really been great in the Super Bowl? He hasn't really been Mahomes. Um, I don't know if that's true. I mean, he won one. Yeah, that's pretty good. He wasn't great in that game. It was fine.

And then he obviously stunk against the Bucs, but he was under pressure all day. Yeah, I think the fact that he has a healthy offensive line, we don't know if he's... I mean, we know he's not 100%, but we don't know to what extent he's not 100%. So there are some questions. I think it's a very close matchup.

I don't want to, you know, make the entire city of Philadelphia mad because that's kind of their standard baseline level when it comes to sports. But, yeah, I think the Chiefs are slightly better. All right. So that's Chris's prediction. I, as we know. I think Heath's prediction is going to be way different from that one. Yeah, I'm just trying to...

This whole Patrick Mahomes hasn't been good in the Super Bowl thing. You don't even have to look it up in the Tampa Bay game. He was on his back the entire game. He had 315 yards and three touchdowns against the number one pass defense in the NFL in 2020. I don't understand what you're doing. Against the Niners 315 total yards and three total touchdowns against the number one pass defense in the NFL

It wasn't he wasn't that good. You know, he wasn't that good Well also there's a there's a little there's some fudging going on in those numbers if you pay attention to the way he phrased it 350 15 total yards and three total touchdowns against the number one pass defense. Those are different denominators.

Oh my gosh, 100%, Chris, thank you. That was really sneaky. Well, they were the number two defense in terms of total yards allowed. I'm just pointing out that it was sneaky. If the Giants had ever had a quarterback as good as Patrick Mahomes, Adam would talk about him every single episode. I mean, they have Daniel Jones. What year was that? That was 2019?

20. Well, it was the 2019 season, right? Probably. Yeah. Yeah, he threw for 26 of 42, 286 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions. A 78.1 passer rating. I feel 100% confident in what I said

about Patrick Mahomes' performance against the 49ers. And I remember it. I remember it during the game. He wasn't that great, and if someone on the team, who was it? Someone dropped it. Oh, Emmanuel Sanders dropped a deep ball. They would have lost. If you take away Jalen Hurts' rushing stats, the Eagles aren't in the Super Bowl.

He ran for 29 yards! He ran for 29 yards. He ran for 29 yards. Yes. Okay. Look. He threw two interceptions. Patrick Mahomes is really good. My memory of that game is that he didn't have his best game ever. Exactly. And also,

the way you phrased that, Heath, was a little intellectually dishonest. Thank you. That's all. And he fumbled twice in that game, by the way. Oh, Daniel Jones lover certainly hates fumbles. This has nothing to do with Daniel Jones. Certainly hates fumbles. Okay, okay. I think we can all agree.

I'm just tired of your Eagles fandom. It's disgusting. No, what I was going to say. Your division rival is in the Super Bowl, and you cannot stop talking about how much you love them. You told them the greatest team of all time if they win this game. Did not say that. It's insane.

Nope, didn't say that. But I think I might be switching my pick to the Chiefs. More on that later in the week. Okay. You got the first word right. What? More? What?

He is salty. All right. Listen, you might know Ryan Wilson from the Pick 6 podcast or his appearances on this show. You might know Rick Spielman as the GM who drafted Justin Jefferson and Adrian Peterson and Dalvin Cook. And they are together on the not brand new anymore,

but still new podcast that we have here called With the First Pick, an NFL draft podcast that's just outstanding. Check it out, please. With the First Pick, deep dive into mock drafts, prospect profiles, stock watch, and more. Get acquainted with all those prospects and who your team's going to pick. It's called With the First Pick, anywhere you listen to podcasts. All right, Chris, who's your headliner for the show today

of Chris's favorite players? Also forgot to mention, we are going to talk Super Bowl DFS today. We have Sia Najad coming on. He hosts the Fantasy Football Today DFS podcast. He's coming on in a little bit, in about 25 minutes. So until then, Chris, who's the headline or your favorite player for 2023? I like getting yelled at, so I'm going to go with Kyle Pitts. And the problem with this, you phrased the question,

who's your favorite player? And I'm on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast podcast we're doing our position previews and last night we did second base and then frank stample asked us hey who's your favorite player to draft a second base and scott white said jose altuve who's the number one player at second base and like that was my kind of thought i was like who's my favorite player well justin jefferson really like that guy but i understand what you meant right it's the guy that i like more than most and it's going to be kyle pitts and uh i'm going to get yelled at for having kyle pitts ahead of tj hawkinson in my rankings i already know that um but i just i think about it this way when it comes to the tight end position there are

there's difference makers and then there's everyone else. And even the gaps between a good player like TJ Hawkinson and the guys who really don't help your team very much ends up being like two to three points per game. And so like TJ Hawkinson was very good for the Vikings last season, but outside of one or two spike games, it was mostly like, hey, he scored 11.4 points this week. That's great for my tight end. That's not what I want from my tight end position. I want 17 points per game. And Kyle Pitts is one of the few guys who I still do think has that potential. Now, as we saw this year, it's not likely that he gets there. And I'm not going to draft him in the second or third round like I was last year, but I am still going to buy into the incredibly young guy

with historic college and rookie season NFL production at a position where if I'm not getting a difference maker, nothing else matters. So that's my thought process with Kyle Pitts. And I'm just hoping that the situation Atlanta is a little more conducive to him producing something all right before I get to Heath's response here give me a approximate round where you would see yourself drafting Kyle Pitts well I don't think I've actually taken him in any of the mock drafts that we've done so far. So I guess the answer will be wherever he went minus one.

That's what I was going to say. Like, we don't have any idea. And I know I'm glad we're talking about Chris's favorite players. And when we actually have cost, then we'll know who his favorite players are. But the answer to all these questions is one round before their ADP, right? Maybe two. Yeah, I mean that that would probably be look i think if i end up drafting kyle pitts in the fourth round it's probably not ideal but given the way that i draft with you know your standard fantasy football lineup being relatively shallow i'm always aiming for difference makers as at as many

positions as I can, especially the one where there are few difference makers. And so, if what it costs is a fourth round pick to get Kyle Pitts on my team, I'm going to do that. Okay. I think we can still give rounds. I mean, think of it as like you're sitting down to do a mock

draft. You could still give an approximate round. I think I'd probably look for him in the fifth round or something like that. But Chris is saying maybe the fourth. Okay. Fair? Maybe. I think he's probably going to have a sixth or seventh run ADP.

I think he's definitely going to go behind TJ Hawkinson and probably in the Goddard-Kittle range. And based on what we know of Goddard and Kittle, I think they're fantastic players. And in different situations, I think they might be difference makers at the position. But it's easier for me to see a path to Kyle Pitts being in a more productive passing offense

and still being a 25% target share guy with a downfield role. And I just, I don't think Kittle or Goddard have the same kind of upside. I don't think Hawkinson has the same kind of upside. Heath, do you think you'll be high or low on, on pits compared to others?

I know I'm higher than Dave and Jamie were at least in the initial rankings. I think I'll probably be, be lower than what the, cause like when we're talking fourth and fifth round, I think that's probably more what's going to happen in FFPC drafts or maybe best ball drafts. I think when you look at CBS drafts, it's probably going to be closer to seventh or eighth round.

And I think Dave's ranking has him closer to seventh. Dave and Jamie's ranking has him closer to seventh or eighth round. So I would guess I'll be higher than them, but comfortably in the middle on Pitts. Yeah, I think nobody really has concerns about Pitts. We just have concerns about Atlanta. And, you know, four years of Arthur Smith being an offensive coordinator or a head coach, his teams have been 31st, 30th, 19th, and 31st in pass attempts.

So they usually exceed that in terms of yards. They're pretty good on a per-attempt basis, so that's the good thing. But it's just not a lot of good offensive production. 2020 wasn't bad. They were really good. They were fourth in scoring. A.J. Brown was a top-10 receiver per game. He was number seven in PPR.

Corey Davis was number 24 per game in non-PPR, number 30 per game in full PPR. Johnnie Smith was a top 12 tight end per game. Ryan Tannehill was the number 11 quarterback per game. That's really been the only year in four seasons for Arthur Smith as a head coach or coordinator where we've had, you know, other than the running backs, you know, really good fantasy options.

You know, we did have Russell Gage on like a thousand yard-ish pace, especially when Calvin Ridley was out. Calvin Ridley obviously was hurt in 2021. Kyle Pitts had a thousand yards as a rookie tight end. So, you know, I don't know who the quarterback's going to be, and that's a big question obviously because there's a huge difference between like the 27 pass attempts per game that they were at last season and where most nfl teams are um but you know they were at

least willing to throw the ball 30 ish times with desmond Ritter so if he's the quarterback next season and he takes a small step forward I could see them being one of the least pass happy teams in the NFL as opposed to a historically run heavy team relative to the league average all right let's do some news and notes here we'll go quickly on these so we have enough time for Chris's other favorites, including Brees Hall and Jalen Waddle. So more on those guys. I said it again. We'll talk more about those guys later.

But for now, here are your news and notes. Derek Carr is going to meet with the New Orleans Saints today. February 15th is a big day for him. That's when $40 million of Derek Carr's salary becomes guaranteed. So he will not be on the Raiders at that point. I was actually surprised. The Saints were fifth in passing yards per attempt. The top five last year were Miami, Kansas City, Philadelphia, San Francisco,

and the New Orleans Saints. That was pretty interesting. All that crapping on Andy Dalton you did, and look what he did. I guess so. Aaron Rodgers is going on a darkness retreat. It sounds really boring. It's going to be just himself in a dark room for four or five days or something like that. Can you imagine spending four days with Aaron Rodgers?

Sounds awful. I'm sorry. I don't know. I think he'd be pretty entertaining. But wow, a darkness retreat. Not for me. David Newton of ESPN thinks it's unlike... Who of the three of us would last the longest in a darkness

retreat? Me. I would be last. No, I would be last. I don't know who would be first, but there are a few things I can imagine doing that sound more horrifying than spending four days by myself. Yeah, it's terrible.

Okay, David Newton of ESPN thinks that it's unlikely the Panthers will make a run at a high-priced veteran quarterback. He also adds that trading up into the top three in the NFL draft is a possibility. Tennessee, Heath, the Titans promoted past game coordinator Tim Kelly to offensive coordinator. He does have three years experience as an OC, and that was with the Texans when Bill O'Brien was there. So I don't know. What does this mean to you with Tim Kelly, who was the past game coordinator, being promoted to offensive coordinator?

Yeah, I don't necessarily love it. I don't think he's going to have much of a voice. I think this is going to be a Mike Rabel and Derrick Henry operation. When he was running an offense under Bill O'Brien, Bill O'Brien was basically running that offense. So I don't think it's a huge negative, but it's basically Derrick Henry or wait until the double-digit rounds probably. Yeah, it's just interesting because the team, they fired their GM, was it?

Or one of their president of football operations, whatever it was. Seemed like they want to make some changes because they haven't been satisfied with just being good to very good. And then they promote from within again. So I don't know. I mean, we don't know if Tannehill's going to be back.

I just thought it was kind of interesting. Okay. San Francisco hired Steve Wilks as their defensive coordinator, and Kadarius Toney says he will definitely play in the Super Bowl, and I imagine he'll be in a lot of DFS lineups, which we'll talk about later. It is now time for some Chris fill-in-the-blank answered by Heath. So wait, Chris created these?

No, I did. They are about Chris, and you have to fill in. We did this with Dave and Dan yesterday. Okay. So here we go. Are you ready? Chris, how do you feel about what we're getting ready to do? I'm excited, nervous.

It's fun. I don't know what kind of questions these are going to be, so I'm interested to see. Neither do I. Alright, Chris's best concert ever would be blank opening for blank. And these could be any bands in the history of music.

So I'm going to get this one wrong, but I'll make a good run at it. Jeff Tweedy opening for Taylor Swift. Yeah, I mean, my initial thought was Wilco opening for Taylor Swift. Maybe Wilco playing with Taylor Swift, I think, would be pretty cool. So I'm going to go ahead and give myself a win. Yeah, I think that's an A. That's an A-.

I don't know who Jeff Tweedy is. Is he in Wilco? He's the lead singer of Wilco. Okay, I was going to say Wilco. I didn't think Taylor Swift would be on there. Okay. Of all the teams that Chris roots for, Blank is his favorite. The Marlins.

It's really the only team I actually actively root for. Oh. I'm a masochist. What about FIU? Yeah, FIU also. But again, masochist what about fiu yeah fiu also but like again masochism there okay uh i did this one for with dave and dan and dave guessed one sixth for dan so chris can run blank of a mile without stopping is anyone chasing him no no um one eighth come on come on yeah i can do more than that you could if someone was chasing you for sure i think someone's chasing you you could probably run a couple miles out of

spite like knowing that you picked one eight i could definitely get to one seventh all right i think it's a pretty good guess you're're on fire. Chris's favorite burger temperature is blank. Am I phrasing that right? Like rare, medium rare? Yes, but a burger is ground beef. We're not talking steak here, so I'm going to say medium. Medium rare.

Yeah. Because anytime, everything you order at a restaurant especially is always going to be one level more cooked than you order it. Okay, but if you could have it the actual way you wanted it, what would it be? Medium rare. There we go.

All right. It was pretty good, Heath. I like to live dangerously. Three out of four. All right, that was fun. When we come back, more fun, talking fantasy football. Chris will tell you why he's going to be higher on Brees Hall. I mean, everybody's just probably just about the ACL for him. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. and the ability to reach further with access to over 1,400 airport lounges worldwide.

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safe visit ontarioonecall.ca it's free it's easy it's the law data sourced from the orcga 2023 dirt report more of chris's favorites for 2023 okay so breese hall chris is he an easy first round pick for you that's obviously going to depend on the reports we get about his knee if we get to training camp and it's like well he's hoping to be ready for week one then things will start to get a little hairier. But as of now, given the uncertainty around him and the uncertainty around a lot of players, yeah, I do project him to be right around a first-round pick.

I think he was my number seven running back in our initial rankings. And for me, it's just he showed, one, the pass-catching chops, and two, the big playability. And those are the two things that you're looking for. He a home run hitter even in a bad offense you know a Jonathan Taylor type of talent except was used more in the passing game so I think there's legitimate number one overall upside with Brees Hall even in a Jets offense that isn't great. Yeah, I mean, there's really nothing to argue about here, Heath. It's just going to be how people feel about the injury. Yeah, the argument's going to come in training camp

when he doesn't play at all in the preseason and he's kind of limited in practice, and then we have to decide how much do we care about this. If he's a full go for the opening of training camp, if there's no limitations, then he's a first-round pick. Yep. This is a little bit difficult of a hypothetical here, but let's just say he didn't get hurt.

I don't really know. Okay, he missed the last half of the season because he... Let's say it was like a meniscus or something. Something that was serious but not long-term. Yeah, or no, just no injury at all, right? Just he got married and he went on a three-month honeymoon. Went on a darkness retreat. Went on a darkness retreat.

Where would you rank Brees Hall? Top five? Yeah, I think he'd be... It'd be like him and Jonathan Taylor would be neck and neck, I think. But you would consider him as a possibility to be the number one player in fantasy? Like, do you think he has that upside?

I think he does, yeah. Yeah, I think like, especially the way he was trending where he was seemingly hitting a 40-yard play or more every single week, like that wouldn't have been sustainable but that's the kind of upside you're looking for in a number one overall player and it really gave me you know Jonathan Taylor vibes where you know this

really really really great athlete with great production in college came out and looked the part and so I don't have really any questions about his ability to perform at the NFL level. It's just when we get to training camp, are the reports like what they were for J.K. Dobbins at that point last year? That'll be a concern because, you know, if you were following the training camp reports, none of it ever sounded super optimistic for his chances. And, you know, for what it's worth, J.K. Dobbins suffered his injury two months before Brees Hall did in the calendar.

So that was a big concern there. You know, if Brees Hall, Brees Hall may not be ready for the start of the season. It's entirely possible. Yeah. Last thing here, Heath, do you expect, first of all,

two-part question, do you expect B. John Robinson right now to be the top pick in rookie drafts? 100%. Would you trade Brees Hall for pick 101? I would not. But I think they'll be in the same tier. And there is a landing spot possibly.

Today they're saying that the Cowers are going to restructure Zeke and franchise tag Tony Pollard. But there was discussion a couple weeks ago that they might just cut Zeke and let Pollard walk and draft B. John Robinson. If something like that happened, then I think Robinson's probably RB1 immediately. So, by the way, just so everyone knows, it was a torn ACL and there was meniscus damage as well. So let's keep that in mind.

I'm sorry if you already said that. Next player, how about Amonra St. Brown? Okay, this is definitely a second round pick for you, right, Chris? Yeah, and I think there's probably not that much lingering uncertainty about him. But I do think there are people who still are skeptical of whether Amon Ross St. Brown is all that good. I think personally, I think he's basically peak Keenan Allen, and we've seen Keenan Allen play with high target earners

in Mike Williams before and still be a go-to, you know, PPR number one wide receiver. I think that's the case with Amonra St. Brown. And I'm not necessarily sure, you know, it's hard to say with Jamison Williams,

whether he's going to be a true number one wide receiver. I think he has that kind of upside, but it, it's also possible that like next season, he's more of the DJ shark in this offense where it it's like a 15% to 17% target share. A lot of big plays, but not necessarily a target hound, in which case I think Amon R. St. Brown is still going to be one of the target share leaders in the NFL. This guy just gets open. I don't think it was like at the end of last season or at the end of the 2021 season, there was a lot of, well, is he that good or was this just a looter and a riot situation?

Well, the Lions were actually competitive this year and he had another fantastic season. His numbers, if you take out the games where he left with injuries, it's like 120 catch pace. I think Amon R. St. Brown is a legitimate number one wide receiver, regardless of format, but especially in PPR. Heath, you feel that way? Yeah, I think definitely a number one fantasy wide receiver.

If I get him into round two, I'm not sure. He's definitely on the Acer stat all-stars because he had five catches for 22 yards week five and seven combined when he played 31 combined snaps. So Chris is right. If you remove those games, his numbers look much, much better. Now I wonder, did you talk about the Keenan Allen comp? I think that's a fair one. I'm not sure his quarterback's quite as good as Keenan Allen's was. And the one problem that Keenan Allen did have when it came to justifying a second round pick has been getting into the end zone not not always but especially early in his career and we

see a sub five percent touchdown rate from St. Brown in both his first and his second seasons so like if there's something that's going to hold him back it's that or the emergence of Jamison Williams because I do think that Jamison Williams' upside is higher than St. Brown's as a player. Yeah, I wonder why he slumped a little bit at the end. Five straight games with probably averaged around

13 PPR fantasy points. Well, he didn't score a touchdown in the last five games. Yeah, but he also didn't go over 76 yards. He had 68, 76, 76, 62, and 49 yards in the last five games just i don't know because kind of like a bad stretch it happens i think when your slumps are 10 plus ppr points in every single game with you know 15 plus upside without scoring a touchdown i think that's probably a number one wide receiver uh yeah in ppr yeah you don't have to azer stat this to to get him to a number one

he was number 11 in points per game last season number 10 if you take out michael thomas only played three games so like you really don't have to fudge the numbers at all no i think you have to azer set it to say he's a second round pick sure but i think in this case yeah it's worthwhile yeah taking out the two games where he didn't play a play a full snap share is pretty reasonable at it to say he's a second round pick sure but i think in this case yeah it's worthwhile yeah taking out the two games where he didn't play a play a full snap share is pretty reasonable i am pro azure stat i've been pounding the table asking for the official azure stat rankings from 2022 all right you'll get them you will get together like an azure stat book in the off season that's what i said it should be a project like a downloadable. Yeah.

Also with St. Brown. So he played 16 games. There would be two that we would remove, right? Yes. Yeah. Okay. So in 14 games, one, two, three, four, five games, five games with 20 or more

fantasy points. I mean, they five huge games. And then you got a 39.4 in there. You got a 27. I mean, five huge games. And then you got a 39.4 in there. You got a 27.9. You got a 34.6. So he had some absolutely monster games. And he was great. And he's been great since they changed coordinators a year and a half ago.

I don't know if you said that. I'm sorry if you did. I'm going to skip Lamar Jackson for now because we've talked about him a lot. I think we'll have time for him. But just in case, let's go to Jalen Waddell. And Chris, Jalen Waddell. If Tua Tungabailoa is fully healthy at the start of the year, why shouldn't I take Jalen Waddell also in the Monroe-St. Brown range?

Because he was, here was his seven-game pace in the 12 games that Tua started and finished. 79 catches, 1,514 yards, 11 touchdowns on only 125 targets, but he led the NFL in yards per catch, so different type of player

than St. Brown last year, but why shouldn't I take Jalen Waddell at the 2-3 turn, let's say? Well, and the thing I like about Jalen, look, he's not going to average 11.6 yards per target. Again, that's probably unreasonable to expect.

But what I like about him is the same thing I liked about Stefan Diggs when he made the move from Minnesota to Buffalo, is that this is a guy who has shown he can thrive filling multiple different roles in an offense. He filled that short area target guy role as a rookie last season he was primarily a downfield guy and he was excellent in both roles so that to me suggests that this is a guy who's capable of being a true number one wide receiver who does it all the thing that makes me like him more than even his very very good final numbers is just jaylen wattle really wasn't healthy for much of the season. He played through it.

I don't think he missed a game, but you remember he had that like weird leg injury in the preseason that he was questionable to start the season. Then he, I think he dealt with a groin in the season. He had a quad injury at some point. Maybe he just, maybe that's just the kind of player he is. He's, he's slight. Maybe he'll, he'll just struggle to, 100%. But how productive he was despite having stretches where, one, he didn't have a good quarterback, and two, he wasn't healthy himself,

I think that suggests that the production we saw last season, which was already number one wide receiver production, can get even better, especially if they have to – Terry Kill obviously hasn't shown any signs of aging yet, but he's at the point where it wouldn't be a shock if he took a small step back. And I think Waddle is perfectly capable of taking a big step forward and filling in for whatever Miami might need from him. Is the only question around Jalen Waddle to a tongue of Iowa-the-wild as health? Is that the only reason to doubt him? No. Maybe not doubt, but there's the fact that he's shown the ability to be so good in a high-target

role, and he's shown the ability to be so wildly efficient in his first two years is awesome. It also makes him extremely difficult to project this year in terms of both target share and yards per catch, yards per target, all those things. So I think there's some question like could he – and we saw this with Debo Samuel last year where he went from leading the league in yards per catch to just being like 12 yards per catch. So if that happens, and he's at 120 or 130 targets, but he's at 12 yards per catch,

then the production's not quite as inspiring. Sure. Yeah, in that case, I think the catch rate would go up, just based on the way he was used. I think it's going to be, you know, he's not going to average 18 yards per catch again. He hit a lot of big plays in a way that, even for a player with his skill

set and the Miami offense is not going to be sustainable. But it's a bet on talent. It's a bet on the system. It's a bet on the fact that Miami is almost certainly going to remain one of the most concentrated passing offenses in the NFL. If you look at the offense that Mike McDaniel runs, because they have the fullback on the field so much, because they go with that 12 personnel, they're really only running two wide receiver sets most of the time. That means that Tyreek Hale and Jalen Waddle are going to get a ton of, a huge target volume moving forward. And yeah, I just, even with the questions about Tua Tungabailoa,

I would guess Miami's going to make a concerted effort to get another solid backup, and hopefully one who can stay healthy themselves because obviously Teddy Bridgewater had trouble staying on the field. Would you rather have Waddell or Devontae Smith? That's an interesting one. I would think I would have Waddell ranked higher. They'll both be top 12, I would expect. Alright. And then I'm going to

give you 30 seconds, because Sia Najad is standing by. 30 seconds to talk about Lamar Jackson, and I just have one question for you. We have talked about Lamar Jackson a lot in this sort of bounce-back role, and the case is very compelling. Heath has said it. When Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews

have both been healthy, you know, like, well, no, I I'm confusing the two, the two things anyway, Lamar Jackson on a per game basis. Oh, oh, I know what it is. If you remove the games where he's left very early with injury, he's been like a top five or six quarterback, two straight seasons. So, and, and yet people are down on him. So the question I have for you, Chris, about Lamar Jackson is, for the people who are annoyed by how boom or bust he is on a weekly basis, what do you say to that group? Is he boom or bust on a weekly basis? Or is it really just injuries in the surrounding cast? Because what we saw last season was when Rashad Bateman was

healthy and Lamar Jackson was healthy he was playing at an MVP level again as soon as Rashad Bateman got hurt that was when we saw Lamar Jackson stumble it's it's a question of whether the Ravens can put offensive weapons around him and that's been the the issue for them but you know when he's had Marquise Brown healthy, when he had Rashad Bateman healthy last season, he still played at that high level. So I think it's more a question, one, can he stay healthy? And two, do they actually make a concerted effort to give him the help that he needs? And maybe they won't. Maybe they think that not investing in the passing game is the way forward. But I think with the changed offensive coordinator,

assuming they bring Lamar Jackson back, although even leaving Baltimore I don't think would be a terrible thing for his value because he'd probably go somewhere with better weapons. I think it's, again, I'm looking for difference makers. At every position I'm looking for difference makers. You've only got eight lineup spots to fill. Every single one of them should be as much of a difference maker as possible. At quarterback, that means someone who can average 25 to 30 points per game. We've seen Lamar Jackson do that when he's healthy.

So, I don't know. You live with the boom or bust, I guess, because the boom helps you win weeks. Boom! All right. Sia Najad helps you win as well. Sia, welcome to the show, man. What's going on? Thanks for having me, everybody. You know, it's a busy week for obvious reasons. I'm excited to see if the Chiefs can pull this off. I was on the Cincinnati side last week, and so I faded Mahomes, and I'm thinking I'm probably fading Mahomes again this week,

and it's probably just going to come back to bite me like it always does when you fade a quarterback like that. Well, Sian Najad is the host of the Fantasy Football Today DFS podcast, and you do hear some episodes that drop in our feed. Please check them out. I learned a lot from just listening two weeks ago, I think, when you said that you spoke to Frank Stamfel, who hosts our fantasy baseball podcast, and he said that he did great. He had his best DFS year ever because he was listening to you and Mike McClure. And that part of the reason why,

and maybe you can just talk about this real quick, is balancing cash games and tournaments. Tournaments. You know, don't be afraid to play some cash games, right? It's critical. I mean, the reality is everybody sees the number one prize when they're scanning the tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings. And you see like somebody can win a million dollars or $200,000 or $50,000 or $10,000. Well, that's great. But

it's just such a small percentage of people that get to enjoy a top, like a win or even a top 10. So what you need to do to balance your bankroll is get into these double ups where about 46% of the people are doubling up their money. So you can do head to head, you can do double up, but double up is the way to go where you get 1,000, 2,000 people in the tournament and half of those are going to double their money. So it's nice to get the big win. It's just not super realistic to do that on a regular basis, no matter how good you are. So getting in those quote cash gains, those double ups, that's how you maintain your bankroll. You have to do it on a regular basis, no matter how good you are. So getting in those, quote, cash gains, those double ups, that's how you maintain your bankroll. You have to do it.

It's not so you can't compromise on that unless you're a professional DFS player. Most of us are not. Okay, so let me get everyone's take on this. Let's start with Heath, then Chris, then Sia. How do you go about picking your DFS lineups, previewing this game, handicapping this game, when we do not know how healthy either

starting quarterback is. It is a pretty unique situation just days away from Super Bowl Sunday. Heath. Yeah, I mean, as far as Mahomes goes, I just think like we just saw what he did against Cincinnati on one week's rest off this injury. Now he's had two weeks off. I'm presuming him to be healthy. I'm most Jalen Hurts, the injury that's been even longer into his recovery than it has been for Mahomes, I'm mostly presuming him to be healthy. We don't know how healthy the Chiefs wide receivers are. I'm more concerned about them than I am either of the quarterbacks. Chris? Yeah, I think that pretty much sums it up. I don't think Patrick Mahomes is 100% healthy, but the old saying is nobody's healthy in the NFL once the games start.

I think that's probably the case here. He's going to be somewhere less than 100%, but it affected him a little bit last week. I think two weeks ago, it'll affect him a little bit less this week. Go ahead, Sia. Yeah, I think the guide here is probably the sportsbooks. I mean, the number, the total has gone up from, I believe, 49 and a half to 51 at this point. And we see Patrick Mahomes passing yard total. It's an insane 294 and a half. And granted, it's insane in the sense that he's not looking so good in practice. But if the sportsbooks are going to hang a big number like this, I think they're planning on Mahomes being healthy and Jalen Hurts for that matter. Sia, who do you think the most important player passing equity, certainly has the weapons in the passing game, but he has the rushing equity too. So, I mean, I think, I think you can do showdown lineups that get Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes in your

lineup. And I think it kind of goes, you kind of have to go with game script. What do you, how do you think this game is going to turn out? But I just love how we know Jalen Hurts. Mahomes probably isn't scoring a rushing touchdown. You can't say that about Jalen Hurts. Mahomes probably isn't rushing for more than 20 yards. You can't say that about Jalen Hurts. Mahomes probably isn't rushing for more than 20 yards. You can't say that about Jalen Hurts. So he's got it through the air. He's got it through his legs. I like Jalen Hurts in the captain spot, or at least at the very least in your lineup. What do you guys think, Chris? Yeah. I mean, you look at the anytime touchdown score, uh, props and that's for rushing or receiving, not, not passing. And it's basically Hurts and Kelsey are both like,

when I was looking yesterday, it was like minus 115 for Kelsey, minus 112 for Hurts or something like that. So the bookmakers obviously think that there's a very good chance for Hurts to get in the end zone. I think given the way Kelsey has played in the postseason, I think it's five or six straight games with a touchdown, a touchdown, and it's something like 11 of his last 13 playoff games or something ridiculous like that.

I think Kelsey is super important as well if you're going to pay up for any position player. Heath? Yeah, I'll go with a little bit different because I do think that the difference between Hurts and Mahomes, you might guess right on Hurts and have a point edge on the people who guessed right on Mahomes. And I like Dallas Goddard quite a bit as well at tight end this week, especially for the cost difference between him and Kelsey. But I think it's guessing right or picking right on A.J. Brown versus Devontae Smith.

Because the difference between the best Eagles wide receiver and probably any wide receiver on the Chiefs could give you a really big edge there at number one wide receiver. I want to talk about the wide receivers here. It's a good, good topic. I want to give you guys some stats and tell me what you think. First of all, I did read a very interesting article on sharpfootballanalysis.com last night from Curtis Hirsch. He wrote this yesterday. Jalen Hurts definitely has been compromised by the arm. That's my takeaway. He notes that in the past three games, since returning from injury, both

A.J. Brown and Devontae Smith have accumulated more than 80% of their receiving yardage on passes thrown to the left side of the field. Jalen Hurts is just not throwing the ball to the right side of the field. I did not notice that. Maybe it's a Kirk Cousins tribute.

Is that what Cousins does? That's the meme, right? Kirk Cousins doesn't throw to the right side of the field? I don't know. He does on fourth down to TJ Hawkinson. But yeah, so I thought that was pretty interesting. But if you want, I picked kind of a turning point in this season.

Obviously, it's arbitrary. But since week 10, it's a decent amount of time. A.J. Brown has 90 targets. Devontae Smith has 96 targets. The receiving numbers are pretty damn similar. Smith has 11 more catches, one more touchdown. The yards are pretty even. But Smith with six more targets.

Since week 10, Devante Smith has 10 targets on red zone plays. AJ Brown has five. Dallas Goddard has six. Since week 10, the targets inside the 10 yard line are pretty even. AJ Brown still leads with seven end zone targets, but Devante Smith has five. Dallas Goddard has two all since week 10. It is pretty even. And I just wonder, Sia, doesn't that just make more sense to play Devontae Smith since he's cheaper? Yes. I mean, I put out a prop on Sportsline, actually, last week, seven days ago, taking Devontae Smith's over of 62.5 receiving yards. And by the way, it's 61.5 in some places, so I got the worst number there. But listen, he has been a target monster. It's one and one receiver between him and A.J. Brown. Now, granted, there's some

circumstantial stuff happening here, whether it's throwing to the left or with respect to A.J. Brown. Now, A.J. Brown has been nursing a soft tissue injury. We don't really know how severe it's been over the last four or five weeks. And also, Jalen Hurts, from a sample size standpoint, over the last couple of games, we really don't know how much he was going to throw. I mean, those games weren't competitive in the second half. So it's something to consider. Maybe Jalen Hurts is a little bit more healthy than what we're seeing in

the box score. But with that said, I like Devontae Smith. I like his price. I like his boom potential. I like his targets, and I like his yardage. I'm going to ask Sia just a couple more questions here, and then Chris and I and I don't know if Heath has one, but we'll give then Chris and I, and I don't know if Heath has one, but we'll give some lineups. Actually, I don't know if Chris has one.

You line up? I threw one together. I can't say it's the best lineup ever. I'm not going to have Sia give a lineup, though, because you've got to listen to the DFS podcast for that. But A, should you spend all your money? And B, should you have kickers and DSTs? Is that for me? I mean, yes, for you. Yeah. I don't think you should spend all your money. I

mean, I think you can get unique and spend most of your money, but most of the time in showdown, uh, you don't really need to spend all your money as far as kickers and DSTs. Listen, it goes with whatever game, if you think this is going to be a low scoring game where the red zone defenses are going to be really efficient, then maybe you want to throw Harrison, Bucker, or Elliott in there. I'm probably not going to be doing much of that. But if you're building multiple lineups, if you're building five lineups, one should be that game script where it perhaps is low scoring.

So you get the quarterbacks in there, but the quarterbacks aren't necessarily cashing in or you get the running back, you know, jam in a running back too, but then you jam in a kicker or two or a kicker in a defense. So if you think the game's going to be 20 to 17, low scoring, then, you know, jam in a running back too, but then you jam in a kicker or two or a kicker in a defense. So if you think the game's going to be 20 to 17, low scoring, then you know that that would be the avenue to maybe incorporate some of that. All right, Chris, dazzle me with a DFS lineup. Oh gosh, I don't know if I can dazzle you. The one thing I will point out is the under has hit disproportionately this season.

56.1% of games have gone under. Even the games, I was looking it up yesterday, even the games that have gone into overtime have hit the under 53% of the time this season, which is really weird. That's not what you would expect. And four straight Super Bowls have gone under. So, you know, I think the odds,

the trends suggest that, you know, that 51 point line is, you line is maybe a tad too high, but I do think there will be plenty of scoring. I'm not going to go with a DST in my lineup. I'm going with Travis Kelsey in the MVP spot, Miles Sanders, Dallas Goddard, Jalen Hurts, and I'll just nod to a bold prediction I saw Heath make and throw Clyde Edwards-Elair in there.

It sounds like he may be active for this one. We'll see if he gets on the field, but that's what I had to do to make it fit. Okay. No, I think I've actually got on my DraftKings lineup, Clyde in the captain's spot. He's just 1,500. We have seen Andy Reid pull shenanigans? Chicanery?

Chicanery with his running backs in the playoffs before last week and i and so i would not be surprised there was talk about how miko hardman not being able to go in this game had an impact on clyde being in the game and they do some similar things especially in the red zone um they've kind of both kind of had a turn this year as the month-long Andy Reid red zone specialist. And so I wouldn't be surprised if Clyde gets into the end zone at all. You want my DraftKings or my FanDuel lineup? FanDuel. Okay.

FanDuel, I've got Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelsey, Jake Elliott, Devontae Smith, and Kenneth Gainwell. I think if the Eagles are playing from behind, we may see more Gainwell than Miles Sanders. Okay. If you just, I'm sure you're aware of this, but for those of you who are not, if you're just looking at the raw numbers and seeing all the Gainwell carries in the last two games,

most of them, in both cases, were garbage time. He has not supplanted Miles sanders as the lead running back but he although in fairness yeah pretty much every carry was in garbage time the last two weeks for the eagles um but yes but like i think he had nine carries and the last drive or something or two the second to last drive against the 49ers kenneth game well i'm gonna go ahead and give you my draft kings lineup because i like it too. Go ahead. Clyde is the captain.

Then you've got Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, A.J. Brown, Devante Smith, and Kadarius Toney. Yeah, it's star-studded. I mean, the last time Clyde Edwards-Ziller was healthy, he had almost zero role, and Isaiah Pacheco was... He got benched

for Pacheco. So I know you're just taking a shot, which is fun, but I don't really think it's going to happen. I mean, over the last two and a half years, basically since Kareem Hunt's been gone, this type of thing has happened repeatedly with the Chiefs running. I mean, I think you can say it happened last week with Isaiah Pacheco suddenly playing a season high in snaps, even with Jarek McKinnon healthy. And so after that, they're going to go back to CEH?

Well, do you remember what happened right before CEH got benched? It was the game he had 22 touches and scored two touchdowns. And then all of a sudden, his playing time just disappeared. I mean, Pacheco's been good, I just think. Sia, what do you think?

So, first of all, I love building the hero lineup with CEH and the captain. Am I going to do it? No. But I love the idea there because you can jam everybody in. I think Pacheco has a big game. I don't think he's supplanted Jarek McKinnon. I think Jarek McKinnon is going to have a role, especially if these receivers remain banged up. But Pacheco caught five.

He wasn't just good last week. He was really efficient as well. He caught five or six balls, had a handful of yards on each one. I just think that they're leaning on him more than any of us really ever thought. So I think Pacheco in some lineups, maybe even sneak him into the captain spot here or there. I think that makes a lot of sense.

And I've often said the Eagles don't have a weakness, but I don't think that's accurate. I think if they, if they have a weakness, it's their run defense. I don't know how much the chiefs are gonna try to attack it but even if it's you know 18 carries or something like that uh then you know total not just for pacheco or whoever clyde but yeah i think they could have some success there all right my lineup

i have a fan duel uh chief stack i have a draft kings eagle stack in both of them i have kelsey and goddard i'll give my my DraftKings Eagles stack. But I am more like, Hurts just hasn't really played that well. His stats since coming back are so much worse. His yards per carry, his yards per attempt. Way, way down. So I think I said earlier,

I might change my pick. If I do, it's because I have, I believe Mahomes is healthier than Hurts. But my DraftKings lineup is Hurts, Devontae Smith, Dallas Goddard, Travis Kelsey, Harrison Butker, Eagles DST. Okay. That would be, if that lineup cashes, then the Eagles won the Super Bowl. So, Sia, you can tell us a lot more on the Fantasy Football Today DFS podcast.

When can we expect that? Yeah, 5 o'clock. It's me and Mike McCllure who most of you are very familiar with from sportsline we record every tuesday and thursday at five o'clock so we actually just wrapped uh yesterday's show we actually had prop stars on there and speaking of prop stars it was a prop show essentially but this thursday we're going to be really deep diving into showdown both the players we like and the theory behind the bills. Because I think game script and all of you alluded to this, especially Heath, when he talked about Kenny Gainwell and perhaps a negative game script. You really want to make sure that your lineup makes sense in that in that it follows a particular game script.

You might be wrong in the game script and that means you're going to be wrong on the lineup. But you got to pick something that makes sense where all six players are getting the volume you anticipate because of the outcome you anticipate. All right. So check that out. That's five o'clock on Wednesday night, youtube.com slash fantasy football today. And if you missed that, you can just subscribe to the podcast fantasy football today, DFS. I want to thank Chris. I want to thank Heath. I want to thank Sia, our producer, Thomas Schaefer. We have got a free agency preview tomorrow and some player props to talk about on Friday. We'll just break down the game and talk football and talk food and all that

fun stuff that comes with the Superbowl. Until then, I'm Adam Azer. Have a great day, everybody. See you later.