Fantasy Football Today - Complete ADP Review: Best and Worst Values Throughout the Draft (08/30 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 30, 2024

Jacob Gibbs joins us for today's show as we take you through 10 rounds of average draft position and tell you the best and worst values. The guys start with a few ADP standouts (1:30) including rookie... running backs going too late and the elite quarterbacks going too early. Then we've got news and notes (5:00) on Rashee Rice, Brandon Aiyuk, Rico Dowdle and more ... Getting into Round 1 of ADP (19:15) with Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor sparking debate. In Round 2 (22:00), how do we feel about Derrick Henry and James Cook? Marvin Harrison Jr. looks like a steal. Round 3 (26:00) brings us to De'Von Achane and great wide receiver values ... Which positions should you target in Rounds 4 (37:50) and 5 (43:05)? This could be the time to get a tight end, but what about the QBs? Are C.J. Stroud and Joe Burrow good values here? Round 6 (46:50) is absolutely loaded at WR. Then we get into Rounds 7 (53:00), 8 (58:40), 9 and 10 (1:03:00) ... Your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday SUBSCRIBE to FFT Express on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-express/id1528634304 Follow FFT Express on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6qyGWfETSBFaciPrtvoWCC?si=6529cbee20634da8 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." Visit the betting arena on CBSSports.com for all the latest sportsbook reviews and sportsbook promos. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:59 BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet.
Starting point is 00:01:16 He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Happy Friday, everybody, and good luck this weekend if you have fantasy drafts. The busiest weekend of the year for fantasy drafting, and we are excited as we welcome you to Fantasy Football Today, presented by BetMGM, the sportsbook born in Vegas. I am Adam Azer, born in Staten Island, New York. Dave Richard, you were born in? Chicago, Illinois.
Starting point is 00:01:44 Jamie Eisenberg? Manhattan. Really? in Staten Island, New York. Dave Richard, you were born in? Chicago, Illinois. Jamie Eisenberg? Manhattan. Really? Queens, yeah. I did not know. Okay, wait, which one? Manhattan or Queens? Queens.
Starting point is 00:01:53 Okay, you can't just claim Manhattan. Jacob Gibbs is here joining us on this Friday. Where were you born, Jacob Gibbs? I was born in Nebraska City, Nebraska. Really? Learning so much today about my friends. Adam was very excited when we recorded the mailbag last night when somebody said their name was Travis from Travis City.
Starting point is 00:02:16 Travis County, I believe, in Texas. Travis County. Yeah, it was pretty cool. Hey, we're going to go through CBS Sports ADP, PPR ADP, and just look for good values and bad values. I want each of you to give me one good value and one bad value. Who wants to start? Who wants to start? I can start.
Starting point is 00:02:34 All right, Jamie, give me a good value. Bucky Irving, who's going 172nd overall. I think when we went through our most rostered players, he was my most rostered running back. And so he's basically free. So I like that. And I'll say the worst value is Travis Kelsey at 23 overall. Okay. Jacob, guest of honor from Nebraska.
Starting point is 00:02:57 You're up. Ray Davis, three picks after Bucky Irving. Love both of those guys. And then my worst value is going to be Zemir White. You're passing up on a lot of upside in that range. 48th overall. 48th overall and full PPR for Zemir White. Dave, Jamie, and Heath have him ranked
Starting point is 00:03:13 65th to 67th overall Zemir White in their PPR rankings. Jacob, just a quick follow-up. Would you consider Zemir White 48th overall and half PPR? No, I have Zemir White ranked 96th overall. Okay. Wow. Full PPR? You're out.
Starting point is 00:03:33 Dave, best and worst values? You know that I'm a Josh Palmer guy, and I've talked about him all offseason. So I'm going to say that he's a great value at 132nd in our ADP. Wow. He's easily inside my top 100. I think he's going to have a monster season. And should I just take the low-hanging fruit here? I don't know.
Starting point is 00:03:55 Josh Allen, 22.2. Jalen Hurts, 23.6. Patrick Mahomes, 27.2. Where's Lamar? Oh, there he is, 34.2. Most of these quarterbacks are just being taken too soon. They're too rich for my blood. I thought the low-hanging fruit was Saquon Barkley,
Starting point is 00:04:13 who's going sixth, seventh overall, the sixth highest ADP, before Amon Ross St. Brown, before Jamar Chase, before Justin Jefferson. Nobody's doing that, right? No way. All right, we'll go round by round, tell you the best and worst values in a little bit. before Justin Jefferson. Nobody's doing that, right? No way. All right, we'll go round by round, tell you the best and worst values in a little bit.
Starting point is 00:04:31 We have some news and notes to get to. We have a bet. We are making a bet, a wager. Three of the four of us have agreed to the terms. We just have to convince Jamie to agree to the terms of the bet. Also, we'll tell you about our mailbag show and our newsletter and all that. Thoughts on this trade? Which side of this trade do you guys like better? Christian Watson.
Starting point is 00:04:50 This is a three receiver, I think, full PPR league. Christian Watson, Mike Evans, Trey McBride, and Zach Charbonnet. Christian Watson, Mike Evans, Trey McBride, Zach Charbonnet. Or Devante Adams, Jalen Waddle, and Tajay Spears.
Starting point is 00:05:12 Man, I think whoever's getting that Mike Evans side is going to steal. You piped out over there, Cord Husker. I actually, I think I agree with Jacob. You like the McBride side? Yeah, I think it's a little bit better. What is it again? Watson, Evans, McBride. Christian Watson, Evans, McBride, and Charbonnet
Starting point is 00:05:33 for Devante Adams, Jalen Waddell, and Tajay Spears. It's actually a lot better. Really? Yeah. It's got my two favorite receivers. The two best receivers to me are Adams and Waddell here. That's why I'm not really an Evans guy. Jacob proposed this trade to me in our magazine league.
Starting point is 00:05:50 I would probably keep Waddell and Adams. Okay, so it's pretty even. All right, I'll consider it over the weekend, Jacob. I'll consider it. Let's get to some news and notes here. Rasheed Rice is unlikely to face a suspension for now. It's not going to happen anytime soon. It's not ruled out that it will happen at some point.
Starting point is 00:06:08 You know, I'm thinking about it, though, and obviously Kamara last year stands out as he was suspended for three games and was top four running back per game. And then I remember, I think it was a four-game suspension for Julian Edelman, guys. Did you recall the start of the season? Obviously, this was a while ago.
Starting point is 00:06:27 I remember that. If these guys are good, you can deal with the suspension, right? So, I don't know. Based on what the NFL said yesterday about Rasheed Rice, Jamie, did anything change for you? I mean, no. We've been operating under the last few weeks
Starting point is 00:06:41 as if he was not going to be suspended. He is going to probably be such a huge difference maker for anybody who had early drafts and best ball drafts just based on how cheap he was. Now you're seeing his value significantly rise. I would imagine Monday, usually what I do is I use ADP as the first version of the waiver wire column. So just kind of looking at here are the players that you might be able to pick up off waivers. And I'm only bringing this up because I'm going to look at the ADP from Monday, which is we're going to have so many drafts over the weekend, that he may be the biggest riser that we've ever seen, just based on how it's gone.
Starting point is 00:07:23 There's probably some injuries in there over the years for guys that got hurt late in the preseason, but I mean, it's just going to be astronomical. You know, he could, he could go from like around eight ADP to where he was probably at the beginning of the process to, you know, maybe as high as round, round three, I'm going to get to sell as in round four, but, uh, pretty, pretty rapid rise. All right. That's for sure. Right. So let's talk about Brandon. He agreed to the four year, $120 million contract extension. Boy, I got a little humbled last night on Twitter because I brought up George Pickens versus Brandon. I thought it was a good debate. And then I did a Twitter poll and I has 73% of the vote. Jacob, where are you on? I you right now, as he agreed to that four-year 120 million dollar extension i
Starting point is 00:08:06 think on average annual value he's like the fifth highest paid receiver in the league but uh where are you drafting iuk jacob yeah so i had him at wide receiver 21 i'd moved him down a bit before um before this news before he knew where he was going to be i had him in the same range as debo like why does he were 14 or so so that's about where I'm at is adjusting and moving him up. I'm a little bit worried that it might be a slow start because he's missed all this time, but there's still just so much upside. What he did last year was so impressive. Yeah. And Dave and I talked about it at length. What he did last year was so impressive, but unsustainable if the targets don't increase. So you do projections, and this is a guy who averaged the most yards per target
Starting point is 00:08:45 since Tyler Lockett in 2018. There's no way he's going to do that again. It's two straight years where he's been on pace for right around 114 targets. So how do you reconcile that with obviously super talented, he's going to be efficient, but if he's only getting 114 targets,
Starting point is 00:09:02 he's probably not going to be a top 15 wide receiver, I would think. Yeah, no, I think that's a good point. and i was shocked when i went back and looked at it the debo samuel actually had more fantasy points than him when the two were both on the field together last year so like any play that they're both out there debo i produced them um so yeah i think your point is totally valid and there probably is some aggression but at the same time this offense if you look at the most productive yards per target yards per outrun receivers of all time they almost all come from this type of an offense from the shanahan tree um so i do think it's fair to expect him to produce similarly to last year because he's probably only going to keep getting better he's in the middle of his prime
Starting point is 00:09:36 jamie where are you on iuk right now uh just outside the top 20 i really didn't move him much at all um i i still have concerns with the with the targets and and like you said i think the efficiency does come down a little bit and when you're talking about this position and how many great wide receivers there are and you know it it's really personal preference when you get to you know basically like wide receiver 17 through 30 so i just look at it as i think Debo's the better fantasy option. I think Iuke's the better receiver, but I think Debo just because of what he does. And I still factor in I'm expecting McCaffrey to probably miss a couple games this year as opposed to last year.
Starting point is 00:10:15 And I think that's going to benefit Debo because of what he'll do as a ball carrier in the backfield. So if you're looking at Iuke versus Pickens, I'm going to take the guy that I think has more upside. Not again, better player, but more upside, even in a worse offense. Because we saw Pickens in a similar situation last year when Deontay was not there. And it wasn't Kenny Pickett. It was, you know, still bad quarterback play. So you could say Russell Wilson, not the best quarterback. The touchdown upside for me is what I look for with Pickens.
Starting point is 00:10:44 So I like his situation a little bit better. All right. You and me, part of the 25 or 24, whatever the heck it was, 27%. Dave, any updated thoughts on IUK? And I just want to bring up the guy who had the most publicized long holdout last year, unless Jonathan Taylor, because he was injured at the same time. But Josh Jacobs. Josh Jacobs got off to such to such a terrible start in his first three games he was like one of the worst running backs in world history and I know that running back and wide receiver are obviously different I don't know if you're going to factor that in we're a week away and he finally agrees to the extension but any updated thoughts because I know last night you know it was fresh any thoughts to finish it off on Iuke I just I think Jacob hit the nail on the head and we talked about it.
Starting point is 00:11:27 That week one is probably going to be a Debo and Kittle week because it's the Jets first and foremost. And then after that, uh, it does get easier for the 49ers. It's hard for it to get worse, but Iuke didn't have the benefit of training camp like his teammates did and is going to need some time to get back into that shape. Even though he was with the team. Don't forget about that. That can help a little bit as far as any new concepts that the 49ers are working on.
Starting point is 00:11:50 Now he can just go out there and run them. The whole medically cleared thing, I think that's kind of a joke. I think the 49ers forced Iuke's hand on that and just look at the timeline. He was medically cleared and then the day after he signed his contract extension i i i think about the contingency upside at tip to heath on what happens if mcafree misses some games or if debo misses some games or it'll miss some games and these are all older players than brandon iuk i i do agree that debo should be drafted ahead of iuk but but I'm taking Iuke ahead of Pickens. I'm taking him ahead of Rasheed Rice even in full PPR.
Starting point is 00:12:29 I think there's just a little bit more upside with Iuke, and I'm not ready to completely slam the door on, well, he's not going to get more than 115 targets. It's a fresh year. We don't know what's going to happen, and I think there's probably a better chance that he gets more targets than less targets if he's healthy for 17 games because the 49ers know that he's there.
Starting point is 00:12:50 They know what he's capable of. We know he's going to be one of the most efficient receivers. Is he going to be the most efficient wide receiver? Probably not. Those numbers will come down a little bit this year, but he's still going to be very, very effective. If I'm getting him in round four, I'm a happy camper. Okay.
Starting point is 00:13:03 And they threw the fewest passes in football last year. So just by that virtue, they increased that. They could increase everyone's targets. Dallas-wide receiver. That's been consistent, too.
Starting point is 00:13:12 That's just something that they've done. But not this low. If they got to league average, it would mean humongous things. They won't get to league average, but they may not be 32nd. They might be 26th.
Starting point is 00:13:23 And that could be six more targets. Okay, anyway, Brandon Cooks, he was supposed to practice yesterday. I'm not sure if he ever did. I don't think he's a huge deal, but maybe Brandon Cooks hopefully on his way back soon. Puka Nakua is going to be ready for week one.
Starting point is 00:13:38 Jamar Chase wants to get the same contract as Justin Jefferson or get one more penny, according to Ian Rappaport. Rico Dowdle is preparing for a bigger workload. This has been made clear. He's going to do less on special teams. James Boyd of The Athletic points out that you might want to draft and stash Josh Downs,
Starting point is 00:13:53 who was Anthony Richardson's top target in training camp. Pittsburgh rookie wide receiver Roman Wilson was back in individual drills on Wednesday. Maybe Roman Wilson could be a factor at some point this year. Jets wide receiver Mike Williams is expected to play week one, although it's probably going to be limited. He's recovering from a torn ACL. The Giants look like they're on their way to signing cornerback Adoree Jackson, who played for them the last few years. Chargers edge rusher Joey Bosa broke his hand and is going to play with a club on his hand. And Eagles defensive
Starting point is 00:14:23 back James Bradbury is out six to eight weeks with a leg injury. He's not the key player that he once was, that he was for them in their Super Bowl season. Who were those last few receivers that you mentioned? It was Roman Wilson. It was Mike Williams. And Brandon Cooks. And Brandon Cooks and Josh Downs.
Starting point is 00:14:40 Are any of those guys draftable in a typical 12-team redraft this weekend? I've actually been drafting all of them except for Roman Wilson as my last pick. I don't know. Six bench spots? Mike Williams, Josh Downs, Roman Wilson, Brandon Cooks. Brandon Cooks for sure. Josh Downs for sure.
Starting point is 00:15:03 I don't really draft a lot of Mike Williams, but I would. And, uh, Wilson. Right. I think you can wait for Wilson. Um, I don't think you can wait that much longer on cooks or Mike Williams.
Starting point is 00:15:17 Not that I'm excited about them, just that they're good late round picks, but they might be the type of player who, who does something in week one and becomes a hot waiver name if you want to stash them in advance. All right. I've got a lot of stuff to get to on this show. I'm going to have to cut some of it, but you've got to see the mailbag episode. It was the funniest.
Starting point is 00:15:36 I'll tell you more on that in a minute. But if you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, use the bonus code FANTASY, and Jamie's already laughing, and you're going to get up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with BetMGM. Here's what you do. You download the BetMGM app and you sign up using the bonus code FANTASY.
Starting point is 00:15:52 Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. You will receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure you use bonus code FANTASY when you sign up. We'll be right back. Get into ADP on Fantasy Football today. Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate? Don't let your project become part of this statistic. A quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime, financial penalties, and keep you safe. Don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money. Click before you dig.
Starting point is 00:16:28 Ensure your next project is safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca. It's free. It's easy. It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. And welcome back, everybody, to this Friday edition of Fantasy Football Today. Okay, we're going to start breaking down average draft position.
Starting point is 00:16:45 I do need to tell you that you have to. If you can do one thing this weekend, it's have a great time with your family. But if you're going to do two things, it's get that CBSSports.com Fantasy Football Today newsletter authored by Jacob Gibbs, delivered right to your inbox with unbelievable analysis and advice, and it's all free. Go to CBSSports.com slash newsletters. You'll see all of the newsletters we have. If you're going to do like a commercial with like Jacob knocking on somebody's door
Starting point is 00:17:11 and just like handing them the newsletter. He just goes door to door. That's really good. Because you know, most people, like they don't even answer the door when some stranger knocks trying to sell something. But if someone knocks on your door and Jacob Gibbs is handing you his newsletter,
Starting point is 00:17:23 you're going to be like, oh man, awesome. Come back anytime. Yeah, I'd tip you. And if you're going to do three things, watch our mailbag episode. We usually record Friday afternoon. We recorded it last night, which obviously meant it was going to get a little wacky. Jamie laughed harder. Look at him.
Starting point is 00:17:38 Look at this screenshot of Jamie. And then I don't want to give away too much, but this is just what we saw from Jamie. Jamie turned into a tomato. I mean, Jamie goes off camera, and he comes back, and he looks like he painted his face red, basically. It was such a funny show, and we had a great time. So please check out the mailbag. Are you wearing the same shirt? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:18:00 You're wearing the same shirt. Oh, my God. Let me tell you why. Let me give you the chronology there. We did the recording at 9 o'clock p.m. I showered at about 8.15. I put this shirt on. I wore it for the show.
Starting point is 00:18:13 I wore it for a few hours. I took it off when I went to sleep. I put it back on in the morning. It's clean. But you should know you're on camera. Like, what are you doing? I do this all the time. You may not realize it, but I do it all the time.
Starting point is 00:18:26 You don't wear the same shirt on shows back to back. A hundred percent. I do it all the time. If I do like the live stream Tuesday night, if it's after a shower, I will probably wear the same shirt on Wednesday morning. Are you proud that you wear the same shirt on consecutive shows? It's just a shirt. I don't want to do more laundry. I just spent like an hour and a half doing laundry last night. i don't want to do more laundry i'm tired you know how much i i just fall i took spent like an hour and a half doing laundry last night i don't want to no one's
Starting point is 00:18:48 telling you to do more laundry just wear a different shirt and then wear the shirt that you wore pops later like when you go to the grocery store or softball practice or something i will say i will say it was one of the funniest moments in a very long time and then he did something else later in the then he did something else later in the show he said something else later in the show that was so funny again what was it about the word that he used oh he's so funny he's so unintentionally funny it's great he's also trying he was trying to he was describing the restaurant that he went to with Adam, and he said, if I had a certain something, I would have ordered this, and he butchered the word so badly.
Starting point is 00:19:30 Yeah, it was really amazing. All right, everybody, let's get an average draft position round by round. CBSSports.com, PPR, ADP, and here we go. Christian McCaffrey, Brees Hall, Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Bijan Robinson. We're not going to nitpick. That's a perfectly fine top five. Saquon Barkley, sixth. Where's my wrong buzzer?
Starting point is 00:19:53 Yeah, we definitely don't want Saquon Barkley sixth overall. Where do we want Saquon Barkley, Jamie? The earliest would be back in the round one, early round two. Okay, seventh. Yeah, he's going seventh. would be back in the round one, early round two. Okay. Seventh over, seventh, yeah. He's going seventh. Amon Rusty Brown is also going seventh or eighth. And then it's Jonathan Taylor,
Starting point is 00:20:14 and Taylor is ahead of Chase and Jefferson. Jacob, your thoughts on, oh, no, you're not cool with that. For full PPR, man, like Saquon and Taylor are third round picks for me. Yeah, he's, Jacob is very low on Saquon and taylor are third round picks for me yeah he's jacob is very low on saquon and taylor uh you're probably worried about catches and touchdowns right right yeah makes sense um dave your thoughts on taylor going ahead of good ad right there good job oh what is this oh this is from our this is we're looking at c CBS.com, CBS sports.com. All right, there we go.
Starting point is 00:20:47 Uh, pop-up ad just appeared. I needed to get some shopping in this weekend. Thank you. CBS sports for that amazing pop-up ad. Dave, your thoughts on this order of Taylor chase Jefferson, AJ Brown. I would much rather have the wide receivers in round one for the simple fact that it's full PPR. Those guys have just as good of a shot of getting 1400 total yards as the running backs do. Now the running backs do have a shot at getting more
Starting point is 00:21:11 total yards and more touchdowns, but I'm going to fall back on what I've been saying a lot lately, which is I'd rather take the receiver first, knowing that I'm not going to get Taylor Barkley in round two, but I'll get a comparable running back, maybe somebody a tier down, but still a very good running back. And I can just start my draft with a balanced approach. If there is no Garrett Wilson, Pukunuku, and Marvin Harrison, then make it back to the middle of round two. Okay. Jacob, I'll give you any chance you want to expand on why you are taking barkley and taylor in the third round which just means you're just not drafting them yeah i i hardly ever draft
Starting point is 00:21:53 either one of them it's just a projections thing um there's not enough targets to go around to the running backs with these scrambling quarterbacks and then you also you have two of the best goal line rushers at the quarterback position and so that's a threat to take away their touchdowns. And so, yeah, for full PBR, they're not even close. I have Jameer Gibbs ahead of him. Okay, and he's coming up in ADP. So you have Chase, Jefferson, A.J. Brown. We're at basically the one-two turn here.
Starting point is 00:22:17 We're looking at a group of running backs, Jameer Gibbs, Kyron Williams. Let's go a little bit further down there. Schaefer, if you wouldn't mind. Thank you. Jameer Gibbs, Kyron. Dan's in the chat, by the way. I know. Dan is in the chat. He doesn't have time to do the mailbag today, but he has time to chat on the show that he's not on.
Starting point is 00:22:36 No, he had time to do the mailbag today. Whatever. It's not his fault. Okay. Sorry. One-two turn, we've got Jameer Gibbs, Kyron williams garrett wilson and is everybody comfortable with gibbs kyron and wilson at the one two turn primer turner in round one oh stop uh no on kyron no i agree i think it's too soon for kyron jacob yeah i'm taking Garrett Wilson.
Starting point is 00:23:05 I have him for sure. Puka ahead of him. Yeah. Okay. So where for Kyron then? I have him behind A-chan. I have him at the back end of round two. Okay.
Starting point is 00:23:17 Dave, Jamie, what? Mid-round two for Kyron? Yeah. Maybe even a little bit earlier than that. Don't respond to Dan's texts right now don't respond dad is texting us all right uh okay so after this group of uh of gibbs kairon garrick wilson then we get derrick henry so he's going 18th overall he's the 15th highest adp if that's confusing to you we have two things on things on this page if you're not looking at it. Just go to the CBSSports.com ADP page.
Starting point is 00:23:48 It lists one through whatever. Derrick Henry is 15th. Then you look at his ADP, it's 17.6, so I'll round up to 18. On average, he's being drafted 18th overall, Derrick Henry. That's the 15th highest ADP. I hope that makes sense. I'm going to use his average
Starting point is 00:24:03 draft position because on average, Derrick Henry is going 18th overall in full PPR. Terrible. Terrible. Strong words. Terrible. It's another one of these guys that has a quarterback who could vulture touchdowns. It's not quite as much of a concern as Jalen Hurts and Anthony Richardson.
Starting point is 00:24:21 And then also doesn't throw to the running back position very much. Right. Yeah. Right. Yeah. Okay. So look, there's a theme there. If you're in a full PPR league, you just might want to be cautious with those guys. After that we have Puka Nakua, Travis ETN. We're good with that, right? Mid-round two.
Starting point is 00:24:37 Puka and ETN? Love it for Puka and fine with it for ETN. James Cook is next. One of the biggest risers what do you think seems really high it does agreed seem kind of 20th jamie he's i'm sorry too high he's another guy who has a quarterback who steals touchdowns and he also they they brought in ray davis to like fill that exact role like they've been trying to find someone to fill that role for cheap hasn't been working and then finally they just took Ray Davis.
Starting point is 00:25:05 They took him ahead of the two biggest running backs in the class, Braylon Allen and Audrick Estimate. They chose this 25-year-old running back, which is really weird. And he's looked amazing this preseason. I think he's going to have a role. Curtis Samuel, last time we saw him with Joe Brady, played a lot in the backfield. They had 200 rushing yards.
Starting point is 00:25:21 There's just so many people who can take work from James Cook. So who should go ahead from James Cook. So who should go ahead of James Cook then? Pacheco and Marvin Harrison are right after him. Are those easy calls? Yes. Harrison should be Harrison's top 15. Harrison's 21st in ADP. That's
Starting point is 00:25:38 great value. And then the quarterbacks come in. Are we taking the quarterbacks ahead of James Cook? No. I'm not. I'm fine with it. Okay. All right, so round two, we're looking at Gibbs, Kyron, Garrett Wilson, Derek Henry, Puka Nakua, Travis Etienne, James Cook.
Starting point is 00:25:58 The running backs we seem to like in this range are Etienne and Kyron and Pacheco. The running backs that we think are a little bit too early in this range. Oh, and Gibbs Gibbs, obviously too, uh, are Derek Henry and James Cook. So Marvin Harrison goes after Isaiah Pacheco and then basically round two
Starting point is 00:26:17 finishes off with Josh Allen and Jalen hurts. And we're not comfortable taking them there. We like them. What do we say? Mid to late round three for the quarterbacks to start yes especially in full ppr yeah okay what about travis kelsey he's at the two three turn as we go into round three dave you said i think you called that out i forgot who said kelsey is too early i did you okay go ahead Jamie. It's just the fact that we've talked about this ad nauseum,
Starting point is 00:26:46 like he's not going to run away from the field again. If his snap count is going to be limited. And we saw that last year, you know, 77% of the snaps was the lowest since his rookie season. And they talked about that in the playoffs. Like that was on purpose. And now you add in two other prominent receivers,
Starting point is 00:27:00 one with a first round pick, one, a pretty significant veteran addition with Marquis Brown and Xavier worthy rice isn't getting suspended. And so he could still be the best tight end. But if you're drafting him 13 spots ahead of Sam Laporta, 21 spots ahead of Mark Andrews, and 28 spots ahead of Trey McBride, that's crazy to me because I think all four of those guys could finish in a similar range, maybe potentially Kincaid as well. So I don't mind if you take Travis Kelsey first. Just don't take him that far ahead of Laporta, who's second. Okay.
Starting point is 00:27:30 This is the highest I've seen him relative to the other tight ends of any ADP on any site. I think that's the same here. So, Jacob, I'll let you make the case for A-Chan because I know that A-Chan at the 2-3 turn is, I think, it's too early for Dave and Jamie. But you're kind of higher on A-Chan at the 2-3 turn is, I think, it's too early for Dave and Jamie, but you're kind of higher on A-Chan. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:27:47 I mean, if you look at his efficiency metrics, he looks like a complete outlier, and I want to bet on those types of players. I totally believe in the coaching staff there in Miami and their ability to create that type of outlier rushing efficiency. And then they're trying to get him involved as a receiver a lot more, and he was really good as a receiver. He had 60 receptions over his final two years at Texas A&M and his per route target and yard per run rates last year as a rookie were really good as well we've seen them using him as a
Starting point is 00:28:18 like actual out wide receiver some in the preseason and he was someone they were really intentional getting the ball to last year he actually had the same number of design targets as rashad white last year which is pretty insane when you think about the difference in their route running opportunities overall what's the design target just to clarify this we're talking about devon achan right here so what's the design target same as rashad white that's per fantasy points data um you can go check out they've got so much uh cool information over there but yeah it's the team like it's a screen or a first read target like they're intentionally that the whole play is designed to get the ball in hn's hands and they do that a lot
Starting point is 00:28:53 and they've talked about that all offseason that they want him to be able to handle more touches particularly in the receiving game so your full ppr here if there's anybody who could like ascend into that cmC, Brees Hall, Bijan tier, it's like a Chan or maybe Jameer Gibbs. If David Montgomery gets hurt, like those are the two clear names. Okay.
Starting point is 00:29:13 Dave, a Chan at the, basically the two, three turn along with Travis Kelsey, who are some running backs that you would take ahead of a Chan? We can start with, and this is just going to make Jacob absolutely sick, but Derek Henry, Josh Jacobs, Rashad White. I would take James Cook ahead of him. Kenneth Walker, I would take ahead of him. In full PPR, I have Alvin Kamara ranked ahead of him. That's the list.
Starting point is 00:29:37 And I get that the metrics were amazing on A-Chan and he is an amazing player. I think that there is still significant concern amongst the Dolphins coaches about keeping him on the field. And that means limiting his touches. This is from a coaching staff that's already made it clear that they don't like to give one guy all the work. There's going to be two running backs involved every single week for Miami. I really buy into Heath's point that last year, Devon H and his best numbers, the numbers where he got these metrics were in blowout games and Miami will be
Starting point is 00:30:10 involved in some blowout wins and some blowout losses. And H and I think he'll be more involved when the game is closer. I don't know. And not just the throwaway guy. But I was at dolphins practice four times this off season. Every time most, it was the first guy up. Most of it was working in the two minute offense. Most of it was working at the goal line. HN was sparingly working on kickoffs and then getting into the offense as well. And he did
Starting point is 00:30:35 line up as a receiver in practice a decent amount of the time. I, I just, I get a little jittery about taking that two, three turn pick and putting it on a Chan, um, knowing that there's, there's a lot of downside and the upside's great. He's he that's where you should draft them in best ball, but in a redraft league, um, I, I just, I, I can't pull the trigger on that. I'm looking for someone who I think can be a little bit more consistent on a week to week basis. So I, I, I think, and, and Jacob and I actually haven't really talked very much about this really at all. I think if you're, and correct me if I'm wrong, Jacob, but if you're of the mindset of you want to maximize your fantasy roster,
Starting point is 00:31:18 this is the type of player that you draft. Because if he hits, he's going to hit in a big way, like Jacob said. He's got the ability to jump into that tier of elite level running backs if you're of the concern that you'd want to kind of lean a little bit more to somebody in the middle and and by middle still being good you know walker still good white still good you know guys there's still a chance to be top 10 caliber running backs then you're going to go a little bit safer with with those type of players because hans probably got the biggest of, of players in this range by far, because he is, I don't think even if Mostert gets hurt, he's still going to share, you know, because they,
Starting point is 00:31:53 they, for whatever reason, but they like Jeff Wilson, you know, so it's not like, you know, they're going away from just one guy, you know, so we could still see a few guys here. And the thing that I, i look at with uh with hn where i feel like he's better is in two receiver leagues as opposed to three receiver leagues because you can go and take it you know especially in the range that he's at this is a mcafree hn pairing this is a uh brie saul bijan robinson haring, and still get one receiver in the top 12 to 15, depending on how it falls. And then you could still come back in round four and get another receiver if you're inclined to draft that way. And so now you're coming out with a stud running back,
Starting point is 00:32:36 a potential stud running back, two still very good wide receivers, hopefully. And your team is still pretty good if H. Ann fal, or doesn't live up to these, these expectations. If you ain't first, if you ain't first, you're last man, you're playing for first place. Um, I know you don't want to just follow that blindly. Um, but yeah, the, the point Jamie made of like trying to build the best roster you can, that's, that's what I'm trying to do with HN. If he misses, I think you can piece it together. I actually, I get the point that Dave makes about best ball,
Starting point is 00:33:04 but I actually do really like taking him in redraft because you are able to turn the bottom of your bench and manage that roster all year long. Um, and so I want to take swings on huge upside. And if you look at Ryan Heath, a fantasy points has done really great, um, historical research on this, comparing a chant to other outliers that we've had at the running back position, other players who have been even close to as efficient on a per-touch basis have only seen their touches increase the next year. And I know there's other guys that exist in that backfield that drafted Jalen Wright, but it would really be a shock to me
Starting point is 00:33:31 if HN doesn't get more opportunities. So really, to me, the only fear is injury. That exists for every running back. Running backs get hurt. It's a really chaotic game. I want to take a shot on a guy who could be, like, the league winner of league winners, the outlier of, like, the past 10 years.
Starting point is 00:33:44 I want that. That's a pretty good case. Okay. Uh, moving on to the rest of round three. So again, it kind of starts with Kelsey, a champ.
Starting point is 00:33:52 We have my homes there as QB three, Josh Jacobs at 28th overall. We like that ADP, right? Yay. All right. Yes. Josh Jacobs.
Starting point is 00:34:00 Okay. Uh, Joe Mixon. We don't like that ADP. He's going right after Josh, uh, Josh Jacobs. He should be a fourth round pick, right. Joe Mixon, we don't like that ADP. He's going right after Josh Jacobs. He should be a fourth-round pick, right, Joe Mixon? Joe Mixon over Nico Collins, man? That hurts.
Starting point is 00:34:14 Yeah, at best, he's a fourth-round pick, yes. This is the start of the Texans run. You're going to get Mixon, Nico, Stroud, Dell, and Diggs. You're going to get five Texans in, like, I don't know, 30 picks. All right, Mixon, then Nico. So listen, this ADP is not very wide receiver heavy. I mean, it's very running back heavy. Plus you've got three quarterbacks.
Starting point is 00:34:34 Plus you've got one tight end. What you're about to see is a barrage of wide receivers, basically. So here we go. Starting in mid-round three. And we're comfortable taking some, if not all, of these guys earlier than this. Maybe at the two-three turn, maybe in late round two. Nico Collins, Devante Adams, Rashad White, Debo Samuel, Cooper Cup, Chris Olave, Drake London, Lamar Jackson,
Starting point is 00:34:59 and there's going to be one more Schaefer after Lamar Jackson, Sam Laporta. All right, we'll stop there. So, you know, you got A-Chan and Kelsey, Mahomes, Jacobs, Mixon. And I know this isn't exactly 12 people per round. I'm just kind of giving you a range here. But then Jamie, Nico, Adams, Rashad White, Debo, Kup, Olave, London, Lamar Jackson, Sam Laporta. I mean, those wide receivers,
Starting point is 00:35:27 that's great value there, Jamie. I mean, there's at least one, two, three, four guys that I would take in round two. Who are they? Name them. Nico at the back end, Debo in the middle, Olave in the middle, and London top of the middle. Love it.
Starting point is 00:35:45 Are you guys there with Cup? I can't quite get there. No, I'm so concerned about the three older receivers of Cup, Adams, and Evans. So at best, round three, middle of round three. Okay. So is there any major takeaways before we go to break here? What about Rashad?
Starting point is 00:36:03 What about Rashad White? We never talk about Rashad White in middle round three, Dave. How many times this week have you said we never talk about him up, but I never meant to bring him up yesterday and I don't think I did. He's unexciting, but he gets volume and touchdowns and that's a good offense with an improved offensive line in Tampa Bay. So if you're looking for a volume running back who does catch a lot of check down passes,
Starting point is 00:36:30 you heard Jake or Jacob, Jacob. I said Jake, but I meant to say Jacob. I'm sorry, Jacob. You call me Jake. You heard Jakey say earlier that Rashad White doesn't have as many design targets as Devon HN. He had a lot of check downs last year. Those are not design targets, but it does still give you the same exact type of fantasy production as a design target would. I think that he's still going to be a very big part of that Tampa offense. I'm happy to take him in round two. Yeah. So I just compared my rankings to Dan Schneier's in the newsletter. That was the most recent post is decimating Dan Schneier's pathetic rankings. He just, he just acts like Rashad White doesn't exist because he's so excited about Bucky Irving. And it's like, I think you're totally counting out the fact that this is a young player who is sort of inexperienced and could continue to get better. And they brought in this awesome run blocking center.
Starting point is 00:37:14 They brought in an offensive coordinator who is like there to help the run game. And he could benefit from that. I love Bucky just as much as everybody else. But like, I think Rashad White is a totally fine pick if he falls. I don't love him in this range. I'm not taking him over these receivers, but he could definitely have a huge year again. We'll take a break here on Fantasy Football today.
Starting point is 00:37:34 Come back. We've got to get to a lot more here. We'll go to round four, which is going to begin with Mike Evans at the 3-4 turn and tell you who else is being drafted here and who should be and who's going a little bit too early, a little bit too late. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. I didn't see that one.
Starting point is 00:37:50 Oh, it's a good one, right? That's a good promo. And we go to round four. Here we go. Mike Evans is going to lead it off at the 3-4. I have a question. I haven't seen Dan in the chat recently. W-H blank R-E, is he?
Starting point is 00:38:05 Here he is. Jakey boy. All right. Starts off with, well, first of all, Sam Laporta was right at the 3-4 turn as well. So this is a good, I wrote in the pick-by-pick series, with the 12th pick,
Starting point is 00:38:18 you actually have a pretty good chance to get a great tight end and a great quarterback. Not the top three quarterbacks, but you're in a good spot with picks 3-4, 5-6 to get quarterback and tight end and a great quarterback, not the top three quarterbacks, but you're in a good spot with picks three, four, five, and six to get quarterback and tight end. If you so choose and have pretty good ones.
Starting point is 00:38:31 So, um, Laporta and Evans at the three, four turn, then you've got Alvin Camara and Ken Walker. We like that value, right? Certainly for Walker,
Starting point is 00:38:40 for you guys. Hell yeah. Walker. Yes. Camara. No. When do you like Camara, Jamie? Round four. This is round four. Walker, yes. Kamara, no. When do you like Kamara, Jamie? Round four.
Starting point is 00:38:47 This is round four. Late, I'm sorry. Late round four. Okay. I'll take him in round three in full PPR. We know what he is. There was a spell last year
Starting point is 00:38:57 where he was averaging over 20 PPR points per game. And this offense is going to be better. This offense will be better for him than last year's offense davante smith brandon iuk dk metcalf jaylen waddle yeah that's a big one right we like that one jaylen waddle around we might have the best adp of anybody we've talked about so far
Starting point is 00:39:18 i don't even like waddle uh for fantasy this year and i think that ADP is too low. He's a round two pick for me. Same. Yeah, not me. Round three for Dave, right? Nope. Four? Ooh. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:39:32 Like beginning of round four. Okay, he's mid-round four here. Actually late. James Conner. Oh, yeah, that's late round four. He's in that range for me. James Conner, Mark Andrews. I'll throw DJ Moore in there as well.
Starting point is 00:39:43 I usually see him going round four. His ADP is 50th, but we don't have enough guys here. What's that? Conner's ADP is terrible. What is it? 47? 48th. I don't hate it.
Starting point is 00:39:58 You know, of course I'd rather get him in the next round. You're taking Conner over Waddle? No. Are you taking Conner over Andrews or DJ Moore or Pittman? I'd take him over Pittman. I'll take him over Pittman. Not me. Remember, I brought this up, I don't know, a couple weeks ago.
Starting point is 00:40:18 James Connor used to be the third down back. He used to be like the every down back for the Cardinals. Seems like it's going to be DeMarcato because that's what it was last year, even when Kyler Murray was back and Conner was back. Are you aware what James Conner did last year when DeMarcato or Michael Carter was the third down back? Yeah, yeah, yeah. He was terrific.
Starting point is 00:40:36 He was top 10 per game, I think, but not a lot of catches. The catches came down. I think he was on pace for 40 catches with Kyler Murray. That's fine, but he still gets a lot of work and in those games with Kyler Murray, despite getting 2.9 targets per game, he was averaging almost 18 PPR points per game. Yeah, 29
Starting point is 00:40:53 year old running back with an injury track record. I'm sure I accept that he's 29. I accept that he's going to miss a few games. I don't mind drafting another running back later on, but for the games that he does play, I'm going to start him as an RB too. I have several leagues where I have James Connor and then a bunch of these Ray Davis, Bucky Irving stashes. And my plan is entirely just trade James Connor in week three, trade him in week four, something like that. Cause I think he's
Starting point is 00:41:18 going to, I think he's the engine that makes this offense run. Drew Petsing, offensive coordinator there is awesome and new and young. And so he kind of gets grouped in with the other new young coordinators, but this is an old-school guy, and he wants to run the football. And I think James Conner is getting fit. It's his last year there, right? He's in a contract year. The succession plan seems to be Trey Benson, so why not just load him up? If he can handle it, you know, he is 29.
Starting point is 00:41:44 Okay, okay, sorry. I view him as someone that can get you 15 PPR points per game. He's done at least that three straight seasons. Connor actually averaged almost 18 points per game with Kyler Murray last year. That would have been good enough to be the number four running back in all formats per game. Okay, so after Connor, so yeah, good wide receivers in this round.
Starting point is 00:42:03 Even better wide receivers in terms of value at least maybe in i guess i shouldn't be speaking for everyone but great wide receiver value in round five so we get to like dj more jamie real quick i know you've been a little hesitant on dj more if he's going at the four or five turn are you cool with that absolutely okay michael pitman at the four or five turn anybody Anybody not okay with that? I think it's too soon. It's the right range for him. There are a lot of receivers I like better that are after him, but this is the right range for him if you're pushing up receivers. Five, six turn. I'll just say this. I think there's going to be much less passing volume there in Indy. I think
Starting point is 00:42:38 it's going to be really run heavy. And so he has to have the 30% target share that he had last year to pay off this ADP. And I think it's possible that we do see that drop with Josh Downs. Hopefully, he can have an image of playing well. Right. It's going to be target competition and lower passing volume. This is a bad combo for Pittman, who already is not a red zone threat whatsoever. Zamir White is after Pittman. We're in round five here.
Starting point is 00:43:01 C.J. Stroud. Lamar Jackson was in the fourth round. C.J. Stroud. Lamar Jackson was in the fourth round. C.J. Stroud is in the fifth round. Stefan Diggs. Trey McBride. Amari Cooper. And then Aaron Jones, David Montgomery,
Starting point is 00:43:17 Dalton Kincaid, Joe Burrow, Malik Neighbors. Is this kind of an interesting round? Like Neighbors at 60 is crazy. It's not going to happen. Laughable. Has anyone seen any mock draft in the last month where Malik neighbors is
Starting point is 00:43:33 around five pick? No. Brown for, or how many mock drafts have you done in the last month with non-analysts though? But I mean, just people even showing them to you. Here's my,
Starting point is 00:43:42 you know, we get people all the time that has to be a reason is ADP is here because people are drafting him here. I mean, it's not like this is made up data. No, but it's just, it seems so weird that we're not seeing this in any of our drafts,
Starting point is 00:43:54 any of our viewers drafts. Well, I mean, we have one of our more prominent analysts would take him only in this range. So Heath is, is certainly anti malik neighbors and you have i would assume because of based on the adp that we're looking at we're seeing
Starting point is 00:44:10 shroud and burrow are qb five and six right something like that yes so there's they're ahead of uh six qbs that are going ahead of him there's five tight ends that are going ahead of him there's 20 some odd running backs that are going ahead of him. There's five tight ends that are going ahead of him. There's 20 some odd running backs that are going ahead of him. And you know what else? Go back to Marvin Harrison's ADP. So we're just not, we're just not seeing receivers
Starting point is 00:44:33 pushed up as much as we would collectively like. And that's part of why most leagues draft differently than we do. But even amongst being pushed down because the public probably
Starting point is 00:44:44 is not as excited about these rookies i mean you know again we we talk about this a lot and we get some pushback from our our you know comments on the youtube page because i think our audience is very smart um i was at an event last night where somebody was showing me their draft and he's like could you believe josh allen was the fifth overall pick in a one qb league and i was like yeah i can because that's what people do. We say don't do it, but they do it, but they don't do it. And so that's my league neighbors fault around six. Yeah. Well, right.
Starting point is 00:45:11 But Josh Allen, I mean, the ADP is, is like the two, three turn. And so that was unusual. I'm looking at all of our FFT leagues right now. FFT open leagues. I did find one league where he went 40, where neighbors went 49th. He was the pick of round uh five but uh so far he's in heat's league right that was where was that it would be hilarious if it's heat's league it was no it was heath it was heath it was the 49th pick he took neighbors listen he's he's people he's people are in he's league i guess apparently um but yeah for the most part he's been around three pick Malik neighbors. My question is, is round five a good quarterback round?
Starting point is 00:45:51 Do you guys like taking Stroud or Burrow or Richardson? No? No. I'm okay with Richardson. Yeah, I guess I'd be okay with Richardson or Stroud, but it wouldn't feel like I'm stealing. And we don't say this, that our ADP, PPR or non-PPR,
Starting point is 00:46:16 does not differentiate between one QB, super flex leagues. So that could change how quarterbacks are being drafted as well. I guess so. There aren't a ton of super flex leagues. But they're still part of it, though. I love the tight end values here, man. I'm drafting Trey McBride so much higher than this. I'm drafting him in the same range as Mike Evans and DK Metcalf.
Starting point is 00:46:33 Didn't you take him in round three of our pick-by-pick? He's my tight end one. So yeah, it might have been round three. You're going to take him ahead of Laporta and Kelsey. Listen, you've got the conviction. You should go for it. Okay, sorry might have been around three. You're going to take him ahead of Laporta and Kelsey. Listen, you've got the conviction. You should go for it. Okay.
Starting point is 00:46:48 Sorry, I keep doing that. I love the ADP for McBride, too. My neighbors check here. Round three, round four in every league. I mean, the 4-5 turn. If Heath had taken him in 48th, league neighbors would have been a round three or four pick in just about every FFT Open League.
Starting point is 00:47:03 He actually went in the 2-3 turn in my league. That was the earliest. He went 24th or 25th overall to a manager that went Christian McCaffrey, Malik Neighbors, Devon Achan was his team. Oh, no, no. He went Brees Hall over McCaffrey. Okay. Anyway, we like tight ends in round five. Wide receiver
Starting point is 00:47:20 value is pretty good in round five. Look at the wide receiver values in round six, though. After Malik Neighbors at the 5-six turn, Jordan Love goes five-six, and then Najee Harris, George Pickens, Deion... Rasheed Rice. T. Higgins, Rasheed Rice, Zay Flowers.
Starting point is 00:47:36 I mean, this is a big wide receiver round. If these guys really make it to round six in a full PPR league, Pickens, Higgins, Zay Flowers, Tank Dell, Rasheed Rice. They're all higher.
Starting point is 00:47:49 They're all higher. Yeah, I'm seeing Rice get pushed up into the 30s and 40s. What am I supposed to do with that information, though? This is their ADP. So what are we supposed to tell? Because these guys could be your wide receiver, too. And their ADP is round six. So, like, Jamie, what's the advice here? This is where, you know, you've said this this quite a bit is, you know, why you don't like to go three receivers in your first four picks,
Starting point is 00:48:09 right? Cause you like to get the, one of those second top 17 running backs. And again, it comes down to who you're drafting with. If you're drafting with people that you, you know, and you know, are going to be wide receiver heavy when you draft with us for example um you can't wait for higgins in this range you certainly can't wait for neighbors in this range and you probably can't wait for pickens in this range if you're drafting with people that you know are just casual fantasy players they're probably going to follow projections or they're going to follow maybe adp and they're going to try and fill their lineups sooner as opposed to taking a fourth receiver when you only start two so there's there's just different way different ways of drafting and that's why it's just, I don't think it's so real, so unrealistic that you're going to
Starting point is 00:48:48 see this. Okay. Right. Right. Right. But, but even, I think like, look at these names of Pickens, Higgins, Flowers, Dell, Rice. They're out, they have round six ADPs. If they all had round five ADPs, they'd be good picks, right? If they had round four ADPs, some of them would be good picks. Yeah, so you could definitely realistically get your number two. If you wanted to build your team that way, you can get your number two wide receiver in round five and feel good about it. Not all these guys, but like Higgins, Rice, for sure, Pickens.
Starting point is 00:49:21 Obviously, you'd be stronger than the other guys. And there's more receivers coming. Yeah. Okay, so let's talk about the other guys here. How about Najee Harris and DeAndre Swift and Ramondre Stevenson? It's too soon for me. Yes, too soon.
Starting point is 00:49:33 Really? I'm kind of fine with Najee. I'm not taking him ahead of these receivers necessarily, but yeah, I think Najee could see almost 300 touches this year. That seems crazy, but he's exactly what Arthur Smith wants. He's another running back in a contract year trying to prove himself, and he's kind of young to go along with it.
Starting point is 00:49:54 300 touches means that something's happened to Jalen Warren because we know that Arthur Smith loves to be unpredictable. It's to a fault, and I think naji is in line to get those goal line touches and to be the lead back but there's going to be so much multiplicity amongst those running backs and now the offensive line is starting to take some hits that they might not be able to recover from uh i think he's around six guy at best i might have missed an injury to the other line sumala yeah okay but it's the apparently not a season ending injury or anything guy at best. I might have missed an injury to the line. Sumalo. Sumalo. Yeah. Okay.
Starting point is 00:50:26 But it's apparently not a season-ending injury or anything like that. No, but it could be a first half of the year injury. Yeah, and it's a big thing.
Starting point is 00:50:32 And they're already on a rookie center who's pretty good, but I mean, they did not look good in the preseason. That's bad all the way around.
Starting point is 00:50:40 Jamie, we got Jordan Love at the top of round six, and we got Anthony Richardson toward the end of round six. Your thoughts there? I would definitely take Richardson ahead of Love. I would take Kyler Murray ahead of Love.
Starting point is 00:50:53 I would take Jane Daniels ahead of Love. So I like Jordan Love. I think he's going to be a very good quarterback, but I feel like the running quarterbacks just give you a little bit more upside if they hit. And so Love is excellent as a number one quarterback, top 10 quarterback, but toward the back end of the top 10, just because I think he's similar to, and again, very good quarterbacks, but CJ Stroud and, and, uh, Joe Burrow, just the running upside is not
Starting point is 00:51:15 there. And if Daniel's, I mean, he could be a thousand yard rusher based on what we saw at LSU. He was in 12 games last year and we know what Kyler can do. And we know what Anthony Richardson projects to do. So I just like those guys better to me. Love is one of the worst ADPs. I agree. And listen, just as a reminder, cause you might've heard Jamie say that and go,
Starting point is 00:51:30 well, wait a minute. Didn't Jordan love do a lot of rushing last year? Uh, 247 yards on the ground for rushing touchdowns. I think he can replicate that, but that doesn't put them in the same stratosphere as Richardson, Kyler,
Starting point is 00:51:44 et cetera. Okay. Um, yeah, put him in the same stratosphere as Richardson, Kyler, etc. You guys are taking Richardson ahead of Burrow and Stroud in six points per pass in touchdown leagues? Not Stroud, but yes to Burrow. I am over both. Wow. Let's go to round seven here.
Starting point is 00:52:01 We had Tank Dell and Richard Wilson. I'm taking Kyler over both, too. Kyler's a nice mix of passing and rushing. He's got, you know, he's going to throw, he's going to have better passing numbers than Richardson, worse rushing numbers than Richardson. All right, let's go to round seven. We've got after, like, Rashid Rice is at the end of round six.
Starting point is 00:52:21 We've got Evan Ingram. Oh, we got Evan Ingram and Kyle Pitts. So, you know, Jacob, you were talking about loving Trey McBride in round five, and I forget who else was there. I think Mark Andrews was around there. What about the beginning of round seven for Ingram and Pitts?
Starting point is 00:52:37 Love it. More Pitts for me, but Ingram could have a big role for sure. Okay, yeah. It seems like I'm used to those guys being off the board in round six. So Ingram and Pitts here in round seven. I don't think Ingram as much. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:52:54 Ingram typically goes after Kittle and Pitts in most drafts. And we're at eight tight ends now. Terry McLaurin. Tony Pollard. Kyler Murray. Calvin Ridley. Brian Robinson. Javante Williams, Zach Moss, Jaden Reed. That's round seven. Ingram, Pitts, McLaurin, Pollard, Kyler Ridley,
Starting point is 00:53:25 Brian Robinson, Javante Williams, Zach Moss, Jaden Reed. I'll throw Chris Godwin on there. Chris Godwin at the turn. One thing I'd point out, guys, if you're a listener or a viewer or a fan, a reader, and you've seen a lot of our mock drafts, this is where it's really important to compare mock drafts to ADP because in our mock drafts, Chris Godwin is not going 85th overall. There's no chance.
Starting point is 00:53:46 Jaden Reed is probably not going to be there until 83. So I don't know if you agree with this, but I feel like you can be more aggressive at quarterback and tight end in a normal league than you could if you
Starting point is 00:54:02 were drafting with the CBS sports crew because we just take, we just take wide receivers earlier than, than everyone else, basically. So it's just like, there's just, if you,
Starting point is 00:54:12 if you knew going into your draft that you would get Tori, Terry McLaurin in round seven, well, that might free you up or Chris Goblin around seven or Jane Reed around seven. That might free you up to take Patrick Mahomes earlier or something like that. Do you feel that way?
Starting point is 00:54:27 Yes. Makes sense. Okay. So I just want to bring that up. All right. Any thoughts on that? Some of those receivers that you mentioned, I've got round five grades on. It's Ridley.
Starting point is 00:54:38 It's McLaurin. It's Godwin. And this is full PPR. But those three guys, I love Jaden Reed. He's more of a round six receiver for me. But these are the types of guys that I end up getting a lot of because I like waiting a little bit on getting that second wide receiver or splurging on my third.
Starting point is 00:54:57 And I'm comfortable with it in that range between 55th and 70th overall. And this is past that. All right, so let's talk about the running backs because obviously we know that wide receiver value is good according to CBS ADP. Jacob, we've got Pollard, we've got Brian Robinson, Javante Williams, and Zach Moss in round seven. Pollard, Brian Robinson, Javante Williams, Zach Moss.
Starting point is 00:55:19 Your thoughts? I think Javante and Pollard could potentially be sneaky PPR guys this year. So I think the Samajai Pirine release, while it was probably anticipated, is really a lot bigger than people realize. He got a ton of pass down opportunities. And man, Sean Payton really, really features the running backs in an unprecedented way, like historically in the passing game. And Bo Nix is exactly the guy to do that. I think we're going to see a ton of targets for Javante Williams and a ton of targets for Julia McLaughlin. I like both of them a lot at ADP.
Starting point is 00:55:53 Personally, I'm taking TyJay Spears over Tony Pollard. I really, really love what we've seen from Spears as a pass catcher. He could be an amazing PPR running back, especially if either one of Pollard or Spears were to miss time, then whoever's healthy is probably a top 12 or 15 PPR running back because this offense is going to pass a ton. Wow. And that offensive line looks so much better than it did last year. The offensive line is better, you're right,
Starting point is 00:56:19 and the run scheme is perfect for both of these guys. They're really good man-gap rushers. Ty J. Spears is literally the most efficient collegiate man gap rusher during the time I have the data available, which is back to 2017. He's perfect for this. He's also way better as a shotgun rusher, which is unusual, but I think we're
Starting point is 00:56:36 going to see more shotgun out of Tennessee than in the past. It's a perfect storm for TyJ. It just depends on the volume, how much he plays. All right. Let's go to our next round here we are went to round eight okay and round eight so chris godden was the last pick of round seven basically yeah can i get a quick word in on brian robinson yes please awesome eckler told me that he views this year as a redo of what it was like in i I think it was San Diego at the time when Melvin Gordon was there
Starting point is 00:57:06 with him. And if, if Brian Robinson is in the Melvin Gordon role and Robinson is also a little bit sneaky as a pass catcher and they're playing with a Russian quarterback, I think that it's on the table for Brian Robinson to do better than he did last year. And he had a pretty good year last year. He's he's up there for me with Javante. Two running backs that I honestly, like I've got him at the 6-7 turn. I feel like I might have him a little too low. Yeah, it's interesting because, you know,
Starting point is 00:57:34 you can either frame it as, oh, he's got a Russian quarterback that's going to help his efficiency. Or you can say he's got a Russian quarterback. He's not going to get the targets and he's going to lose goal line touchdowns. I don't really know that Jaden Daniels is the kind of quarterback to take goal line touchdowns away.
Starting point is 00:57:51 It's obviously pretty slender. If it's from the one yard line, no. But if it's from the three to the five, then he might. He might, yeah. Rushing quarterback could be good or bad. It's harder. If we're talking about a guy going in the first round, like Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor,
Starting point is 00:58:08 then you could be more concerned about it. Brian Robinson going in the seventh round, you kind of deal with the negatives. All right. So round eight then. Round eight, we've got after Godwin, we've got Christian Kirk, David Njoku, and Jake Ferguson. Nick Chubb, no.
Starting point is 00:58:23 Right? Is that too early, Jamie, for Nick Chubb? It's way too early, yeah. Hurts to say that, though. Right, but he's got a down arrow of nine spots, so that means in recent drafts, Nick Chubb is not going 88th overall. Brock Purdy.
Starting point is 00:58:38 Now that Ayuk is there, what do you think about Brock Purdy? We still have, what, Dak Prescott is still on the board and Daniels and Caleb Purdy here We still have what? Dak Prescott is still on the board and Daniels and Caleb. Purdy here in eight? No. Eckler in round eight. Jacob, what's
Starting point is 00:58:52 better value? Brian Robinson in round seven or Eckler in round eight? Brian Robinson, I guess, but I don't necessarily love either one. Dave, as the guy who loves Brian Robinson, what's better value? Brian Robinson or whom? I'm sorry. Eckler in round eight. Eckler in round eight. Oh, Robinson. Christian Watson loves Brian Robinson, what's better value? Brian Robinson or whom? I'm sorry. Eckler in round eight.
Starting point is 00:59:06 Eckler round. Oh, Robinson. Christian. I mean, when Austin Eckler tells you that he's going back to the old role that he used to have, you kind of know what to expect from him statistically. Who is his quarterback then? Was it Herbert or Rivers? I want to say it was Rivers. rivers through his running backs all the time so that's not gonna he's not gonna be able to replicate the catches christian watson around later than jayden reed like a half around later than jayden reed who would you like better
Starting point is 00:59:38 watson reed watson jerome i think reed safer jer. Jerome Ford is now in this round eight range and Devin Singletary and Jalen Warren. Jamie, how would you rank that trio of running backs and is this the right time at the eight, nine turn, basically Ford, Singletary, Warren? Warren, Singletary, Ford, but those guys are close. Okay. Then we've got, I think we'll go kind of like to round nine here.
Starting point is 01:00:07 Warren is somewhat similar, you know, to what Jacob was talking about with the Titans guys. If Najee ever got hurt. Yeah. Yeah. Warren's the one I draft out of these running backs. I think the other ones are kind of small win running backs. The only time I would be taking them is if I was building like a Jonathan
Starting point is 01:00:24 Brooks team or something like that where I needed early season production. Also, Deontay Johnson's my favorite value of this range for like easily. I didn't say him. Oh, he's coming up. Yeah, so he's kind of like in round nine. We cut it off at 96th overall.
Starting point is 01:00:38 I didn't give 12 players in round eight, but Keenan Allen and Deontay Johnson are about to be drafted. Jerome, like Devin Singletary, I think it's worth pointing out. I feel like Tyrone Tracy has a pretty good chance to be the third down back in week one. So I don't know that Singletary is a three down guy. I see some eyebrows raised there. I would love that. I feel like that's possible. And then Ford, in the preseason, Pierre Strong did not play in preseason
Starting point is 01:01:04 week three, but Ford was on the field on like third and nine. So is that going to be Pierre Strong? I'm not sure, but that could be pretty important. And this is a serious injury that Nick Chubb is coming back from, and he's out at least four weeks. All right, we'll go to round nine then. And yeah, it starts with Keenan Allen and Deontay Johnson. At this point, you say, Jacob, you love Deontay Johnson there.
Starting point is 01:01:22 Are we discounting Keenan Allen too much? Maybe. Dave, you say, Jacob, you love Deontay Johnson there. Are we discounting Keenan Allen too much? Maybe. Dave, you got a bounce, man? I do. Oh, sorry. No big deal. I've got a little bit of radio to do. This was fun, man.
Starting point is 01:01:36 Fast-paced stuff through the first eight rounds. I love it. I think the restaurants in Chicago are discounting Keenan Allen a little too much. Jeez. That was a good one. He's going almost 100th overall now. So take Deontay Johnson over him. Yeah, for sure.
Starting point is 01:01:53 Deontay is set up perfectly, man. He could have like a 28% target share. And Bryce Young, I think, is better than people think. Bryce Young on throws to open receivers, as per Fantasy Points data, fourth most accurate quarterback out of 24 qualifiers last year. He just didn't have any open receivers. Deontontay Johnson number one on ESPN's open score for the past five years the next guys on the list are Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown it's a real stat he's been the most open player yeah you know who else was the most open
Starting point is 01:02:17 player last year though Keenan Allen that's Kellen Moore stat that's a davante smith positive sign that's a kellen morris that okay well keenan allen knows how to get open though oh yeah no no keenan allen no disrespect he's awesome all right so we got keenan allen we got deontay johnson we have xavier worthy jayden daniels 100th overall we like that chase brown a little bit after zach mosk actually like a round and a half after zach moss i I think Jamie has Brown one spot ahead. Ravens DST, we're not taking them in round nine. Excuse me. Caleb Williams, same round as Jaden Daniels.
Starting point is 01:02:54 Look, obviously quarterback value is really good. We still haven't even got to like to Goff. Oh, Goff is in this range. So round 10, actually, based on ADP, you might not want to wait much longer than round 10 because Jaden Daniels, Caleb Williams, Jared Goff, they're off the board in round 10, actually, based on ADP, you might not want to wait much longer than round 10 because Jaden Daniels, Caleb Williams, Jared Goff, they're off the board in round 10. You could get away with going a little bit longer.
Starting point is 01:03:11 DeAndre Hopkins is in round 10. Tajay Spears, who Jakey talked about. Brock Bowers, Gus Edwards, Jets DST. I mean, I'm just still kind of blown away, Jamie, if we go to round 11 by the players that are available there. Jonathan Brooks, J.K. Dobbins, Tua, Keon Coleman, Goddard, McConkie, Sutton, JSN, Rico Dowdle. What round did I say we were in?
Starting point is 01:03:40 We're in round 10, not round 11. Like Rico Dowdle, Romo Dunze, Marquis Brett. This is like a superstar round for... That's a strong word. This is a really good round. Holy cow. Chargers running backs, rookie wide receivers, Sutton, JSN.
Starting point is 01:03:56 I don't even think I've said Jamison Williams' name yet. Rico Dowdall. Brian Thomas Jr. Yeah. So what do you make of that, Jamie, when you see all this good value, uh, in rounds nine and 10, I mean, clearly if these guys are making it to this spot, it's similar to what you were talking about, how you want to begin your draft, knowing that if you can get some of these guys later, it does allow you to lean into quarterback
Starting point is 01:04:19 and tight end sooner. If you're so inclined, knowing that you can get some of these great potential options, potential options in the double digit rounds. And so, I mean, look, JSN should be poised for a better sophomore season. Jameson Williams should be poised for a better third season. You know, Jacob mentioned Brian Thomas, you see Keon Coleman, you see Romo Dunzey, you know, these are going to be very prominent rookies on their teams and have an opportunity to soak up targets. Brooks is falling to a point where it's just so easy to take him. And I know Jacob and the drafts we've done has taken him as his number one running back at some times. I don't know if that's still the case, but, um, Keith laid out a pretty good plan.
Starting point is 01:04:52 You know, if you have your two running backs and this guy is your third and you could just manage through the early bi-weeks, if you so have to do so until he's ready to go in a hundred percent, which hopefully will be, you know, by week five, you could be talking about a league winning guy here with so much upside. And so it's, it's a smart way to sort of plan your draft knowing that, okay, you're not gonna get all these guys later clearly, but you know, you can, you can plan for a pretty high end receiver caliber, a pretty high end caliber receiver, you know, that like a William Jamison Williams, like a JSN, like a Thomas, you know, type of guys, potential running back two or higher in Brooks or maybe Dowdle if he hits or one of the Chargers guys
Starting point is 01:05:31 because I think one of them is going to be good, maybe not great, but good. So there's just a lot of options here. I think we should probably wrap it up after 10 rounds here. Someone asked, when do we draft our defense? We talked about this on the Mailbag Show, actually. I think it was the Mailbag Show. Not a bad idea to, instead of your last two picks on kicker and defense,
Starting point is 01:05:50 to maybe go with your third-to-last and your second-to-last picks with kicker and defense and get a little bit of an edge there. I draft the Jets DST a lot. They do have the 49ers in Week 1, but then they have an amazing schedule after that for like six straight weeks, And they're really good. They don't have a son Reddick, which is a shame,
Starting point is 01:06:07 but hopefully Jermaine Johnson takes a big step up. I mean, though, but imagine, imagine the jets. And I know this is going to sound scary for 49ers, but imagine the jets without Trent Williams there. And maybe,
Starting point is 01:06:17 uh, yeah, you could be an active. Yeah. Look, I'll stop. I'm starting on week one. I'm starting.
Starting point is 01:06:22 Yeah. You're not, you're not afraid of it knowing what the schedule is. Yeah, exactly. Williams is a huge absence. Brock pretty knowing what the schedule is. Yeah, exactly. Trent Williams is a huge absence. Brock Purdy splits with and without. Trent Williams are crazy.
Starting point is 01:06:29 Yep. Except the only problem, and we've pointed this out, when Trent Williams was out last year, so was Deebo Samuel. So that was kind of, and I think they were like at Cleveland, one of the games, they were at Cleveland,
Starting point is 01:06:40 one of the games, which is a really tough place to play. So he'll probably be better. And you know what? It reminds me of Teron Armstead. Two years ago, Teron Armstead missed some time, and Tua was awful. And he was sacked all the time. But one of those games was at the 49ers. I remember Heath pointing this out. And Teron Armstead gets hurt. Wait. Yeah, Teron Armstead, left tackle for the Dolphins. He gets hurt every year. So I was a little worried about that with Tua,
Starting point is 01:07:06 but he did a lot better without Teron Armstead last year than he did the previous year, you know, because there were some circumstances. All right, a couple of controversies here. Well, just one controversy and one wager. Here's the wager for the Miami UF game, Saturday at 3.30. We got Schaefer and Jamie, Florida Gator alums. We got me and Dave,
Starting point is 01:07:28 proud Miami Hurricanes. The winner of the game, okay, the loser of the game, if the Gators lose, we get to tell Jamie and Schaefer, we get to give them one gif to tweet out from their account. They have to tweet it. And the opposite. If the Hurricanes
Starting point is 01:07:44 lose, you get to tell me which Gators-related GIF you want me to tweet out, which will be very painful for me. It's got to be school-related? It doesn't have to be, but I figured it should be. It could be whatever you want, I guess. And do we have to say anything with the GIF?
Starting point is 01:08:00 No, I think so. Just the GIF. If you just tell me what GIF you want me to post, that's the bet. Pretty low-stakes bet. But I will just tell me what GIF you want me to post. That's the bet. Pretty low stakes bet. But I will say this. I don't want to have to post a freaking Gators GIF. And I will also say this.
Starting point is 01:08:15 If it's like a very close game, you got to give me at least 30 minutes. You can't text me right after the fact. That's going to hurt our friendship. Thomas and I are going to call you on group phone. Oh, I forgot to wear my jersey. I knew I was going to change my shirt. But, you know, I forgot to wear my jersey. I knew I was going to change my shirt, but you know, I got laid. Yeah, but why would you do that? That would require laundry. Oh my God. Oh man, I forgot to wear my jersey today. And then the other thing, Jacob, I don't know if you saw this on the draft-a-thon, but we were playing Fantasy Feud.
Starting point is 01:08:38 One of the categories was top five action movies of all time per IMdb they have a list of like the top 150 or something so jamie buzzes in his first guess is terminator and i gave him the wrong buzzer we go through the whole thing nobody gets all five what was the number one answer the number one answer the number one action film was terminator 2 jam Jamie thinks he should have gotten credit for saying Terminator. Actually, I didn't. I didn't, but our group did. Oh, okay.
Starting point is 01:09:11 What do you think? I think that's fair. I actually really, really love both one and two. Yeah, but they're different movies. I know, I know. Terminator 2 is so much better. This is actually one of the easy- You're playing Family Feud, right?
Starting point is 01:09:23 I feel like they give him a lot of lenience on that where it's like, that's not really what the answer is, but it's kind of close. We're playing Fantasy Feud. I don't do the Steve Harvey leniency on Fantasy Feud, okay? So, Jamie, in your opinion,
Starting point is 01:09:34 do you think Terminator should have counted? In that context, yes. I think it should have. No way. No way. I just think that's so obvious that it should not have counted.
Starting point is 01:09:45 Can you do me a favor and answer a question real quick from someone who donated to St. Jude? From Andrew. 10-team PPR league with two flex, three receivers and two flex. Does the extra flex affect how you draft tight end or quarterback?
Starting point is 01:09:59 Remember, it's 10 teams, but it's three receivers and it's two flex PPR. In 10-team leagues, I want to have as much standout position value as I can. And so if I can get a top tier tight end, I don't care how many receivers I'm starting because there's a deeper talent pool. So I would try and get a high end tight end. Yes. But less, less concerned about getting the high end quarterback.
Starting point is 01:10:20 I think you can still manage both with two, with three receivers and two flex. Okay. Yeah. I mean, look at all the receivers we just showed. I know, it's crazy. All right, thanks, everybody. Have a great weekend. Enjoy your Labor Day. Enjoy the mailbag. And we'll talk to you Monday.
Starting point is 01:10:35 Thanks to Jacob and Dave on Fantasy Football. We'll see you then.

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