Fantasy Football Today - Consensus PPR #13-18! Elite (But Old) RBs, Brock Bowers and More (06/25 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 25, 2025

Who averaged more PPR Fantasy points in games in which they did not score a TD - Bijan Robinson or Derrick Henry? We'll tell you the answer at the top of the show and then run through the news and notes (4:40) ... Discussing players 13-18 in the consensus PPR rankings, do we see the end of the elite tier of players (10:00) as we go through this range? Are Trey McBride and Bowers in the elite tier? After that topic, we do a deep dive on Christian McCaffrey (18:30). Is there anything other than age/injury concerns holding him back? Then we compare A.J. Brown and Brian Thomas Jr. (26:15). It's close, but who do we prefer in PPR? ... We look at players 16-18 with some Kyren Williams scrutiny (37:50), our thoughts on Derrick Henry (45:10) and Brock Bowers (52:35) ... Your emails at [e-mail] Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Shop our store: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠shop.cbssports.com/fantasy⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  SUBSCRIBE to FFT Express on Apple: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-express/id1528634304⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow FFT Express on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/6qyGWfETSBFaciPrtvoWCC?si=6529cbee20634da8⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow our FFT team on Twitter:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ @FFToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ @AdamAizer⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ @JameyEisenberg⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ @daverichard⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠,⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ @heathcummingssr⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join our Facebook group⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for the FFT newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fan To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays at his feet. This is gonna go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. We are on to the next group of six as we look at more PPR rankings, the consensus PPR rankings.

We got a comment here from Corey, who was waiting patiently for the show to begin. He said, let's guess 13 through 18. In no particular order, Brian Thomas Jr., Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, Kyron Williams, Drake London. Well, that's only five people, not six, but you got three of them right.

So I'm gonna give you the wrong buzzer. Yes, Brian Thomas Jr. is in there. Christian McCaffrey is in there and Kyron Williams is in there. Here is 13 through 18 in the PPR consensus rankings. Would you like a recap of one through 12? I think everybody would like a recap of one through 12. Do it.

Bijan, Chase, Jefferson, Barkley, Lamb, Gibbs, neighbors, Jefferson, Barkley, Lamb, Gibbs, Neighbors, Nekua, A-chan, Gentie, Nico Collins, St. Brown. No one ever calls him Collins, right? It's either Nico or it's the full name. All right, so here's 13 through 18. Christian McCaffrey, 11 spots too low. AJ Brown, Brian Thomas, Jr. Derrick Henry, Kyron Williams, Brock Bowers. All right, guys, I have a trivia question for you. Who averaged more PPR fantasy points per game? In games, they did not score a touchdown. Bijon Robinson or Derek Henry.

Bijon. Henry. It is Bijon. I only said that just to use your train of thought. You wouldn't be, or Dave's train of thought about your questions. You wouldn't be asking us if it wasn't about this. But Dave's learning because it was B Bijan. But by how much? How many more?

So seven games for Bijan where he did not score a touchdown, four games for Henry. How many more fantasy points per game did Bijan Robinson average than Henry in those games without touchdowns? 2.6. 1.5. How about 0.5?

Derek Henry, 13.9 PPR fantasy points per game and four games without a touchdown by the way four games in a row The only four games all year is a four game stretch mid to late season Bijon 14.4 PPR fantasy points per game I just thought that was super interesting Because you know people will say about Derek Henry. Well on a PPR league if he doesn't score a touchdown But maybe he's not so bad. Do you know how many of those four games were Raven's losses? Oh, I don't know that useless, but I can probably tell you very quickly. Let's see.

One, two, three, I will tell you very quickly. He went three and one in those games. Oh, okay. That's interesting. Yeah, including a 24, 19 loss to the Eagles in which he had 19 carries and three catches. All right, anyway. How many of those games did Rashad Bateman have at least two catches?

Okay. No. All right, let's do some news and notes real quick and then we'll get into 13 through 18 in the PPR rankings. Cleveland wide receiver Deontay Johnson says he thinks the Browns, and he says Kenny Pickett, he saw him running with the ones, which we knew that, but he said he thinks he'll be the starter through the preseason. So, you know, look, it's not, it's Deontay Johnson, it's not the head coach or anything, but there's a vote for Kenny Pickett, at least in the preseason. Trey Lockerbie I saw a note that

Deontay Johnson was running as the primary slot receiver for Cleveland in minicamp. And I thought that that was interesting. And maybe he should be on the final round radar, so to speak. So we get him for like six games, and then he does something to annoy the Browns and he gets cut. And then he goes to the Bengals to complete his tour of the AFC North teams. Then he gets cut from there. Then he goes to the Argonauts and leads the CFL and receptions. Okay. Well, I will put him on my CFL fantasy team.

That's my analysis for Deontay Johnson. But it's more about Jerry Judy here. You know? Listen, listen, if Pickett's the guy to begin the year, that's not going to be really good for Judy. We were all rooting for Flacco to be the quarterback because he's so aggressive at throwing down field. Pickett might not be. And that it would be a little frustrating

for people that lean into Judy expecting the same type of target volume that he got last year. I don't think that'll happen. All right. Nick Cosmiter of the athletic thinks that RJ Harvey will be a significant part of the offense. He,played the idea that J.K. Dobbins is just going to make Harvey, not a part of the offense, basically not a big part of the offense. He compared Dobbins and Harvey to the quote type of one-two pairing Peyton has consistently used in his offenses. Okay. We've seen that a lot. We've seen the Ingram Camara obviously comes to mind.

That would be wonderful for both of them. Would require a lot of catches though for Harvey to be really good. And I don't think he's going to be their best third down option. I think that they want Dobbins to have that role. So the way I kind of look at it is to start the year, maybe a little bit of Dobbins on rundowns, but more Harvey there, third downs Dobbins. And then once Harvey gets acclimated, it reverses, and maybe Harvey gets a little bit more on third downs. And Dobbins gets phased to a smaller role, assuming he stays healthy. But it could go a number of ways.

I really think it's, it's going to be important to pay attention to what goes on in training camp with the, with the backfield in Denver. And there's been reports that go the other way saying that JK Dobbins is going to have a sizable role and it's on it's to be determined what RJ Harvey will do. So I think this is just something we're going to have to sit on until mid August at the earliest. I think this is just something we're gonna have to sit on until mid August at the earliest. Jen Elane of ESPN thinks that Mecca Abouka

is going to have a big role in the Bucs offense and Rob Domofsky of ESPN says Matthew Golden appears set for a significant role, even if he's not an immediate starter. Jamie, do you think Abouka is someone that should knock down the fantasy value of Evans and or Godwin? Yes, I mean, you don't draft a first round receiver with the idea of not playing him at all. And so when you're as talented as he is, he's going to command some level of targets and then you factor in Jalen McMillan as well. So I think these guys definitely

take some level of a hit in their production. You know, I mean. I know for me, I have it baked into both guys where I have them ranked. Godwin's outside the top 24, barely inside the top 30. Part of that is injury. Evans is just inside the top 24. I think anybody taking Evans in the first three rounds is making a mistake. I think anybody taking Godwin in probably the first five rounds is making a mistake. I hope I'm wrong because they're extremely talented players and we know what they've been able to produce. But look, if a buka stays healthy and McMillan, you know, gets five, six targets a game, which you know, may be possible if Baker's going to throw a lot, then it's going to be a frustrating

situation for all four of those guys. You know, how high would you go on a buka? Oh, he's a double digit round guy You know, I think once you start looking at you know, the Adam Thielen Rashid Shahid range, you know those type of guys were either quarterback issue or age or you know second receiver on a bad offense third receiver on a You know mediocre offense, you know, like why would you not take a chance on somebody with that type of set? Okay, especially I mean depending on when you're doing your draft, like best ball drafts, he's potential winner of Godwin's out for the start of the season. Yeah. I wonder if some of

this is, or because this isn't the only report on a buka having a big role. I wonder if some of this has to do with Godwin's progress coming back from his injury. Again, another thing to look at in August. Yeah, for sure. Don't draft yet. Okay, let's get to it. PPR consensus rankings, 13 through 18, McCaffrey, A.J. Brown, Brian Thomas Jr., Derek Henry, Kyron Williams, Brock Bowers.

One of the things we talked about on FFT Express yesterday, Dave, was this sort of, this moment in the draft in the second round where maybe you don't, where you run out of the elite players, the guys who have the potential to be elite, and obviously we don't really, we don't really know that but this is just a guess based on where we are, and I think we get that here, right? I mean, is it at 16 with Derrick Henry or whoever might be 16 for you? Maybe the tight ends should be considered there

and Bowers and McBride is not on this list, but we do get to the point in the middle of the second round where it sort of feels like there's a tier in just overall talent, right? Yes, but I don't want people to think that, if I don't have somebody in an elite tier that I think that those players aren't good, the term that I would use after elite is very good. And there's still players that are must starts and fantasy.

I think everybody gets that. I just want to put it out there for me. I want to try and get two of my top 16 players. So that cutoff for me is Brian Thomas Jr. And AJ Brown guys after that cutoff, Josh Jacobs, Kyron Williams, a handful of other running backs, including Jonathan Taylor and the breakout running backs from last year, and then Drake London, lad, Mc Jonathan Taylor and the breakout running backs from last year. And then Drake London, Lad McConkey, T Higgins, they're all very good.

They're all fantasy starters. They all should be expected to get in the neighborhood of at least 15 PPR points per game. But I don't think they all have like 20 points per game upside. And that to me, that's just the difference between the guys that are in that those first 16 picks Derek Henry's in those first 16 even in full PPR but after those guys yeah it's it's a little bit of a step down in terms of expectations in terms of ceiling and in terms of floor Jamie how do you see it in terms of the way we just said in terms of a lot in terms of the, well, boy, we just said in terms of a lot, in terms of the elite tier of players?

I guess my question for Dave would be is if that's how you feel, are you, and you have the chance to pick your draft slot, are you picking toward the back end of round one? We talked about this on the show. I think especially if I wanna go receiver, receiver, yes. Back end of round one, like ninth and later, is that what we figured out, receiver? Yes. Back end around one like ninth and later. Is that what we figured out? Adam? I think eighth, seventh. Well, we said the top 16. I think it's nine.

Oh yeah. Ninth. Right. Right. Right. Yes. Nine. Right. Nine and 10. 13, 14, 15, 16, ninth. Yes. That would be ninth or later would get you a top 16 pick. However, I do have to wonder why are we not including Bowers and McBride as, you know, guys who have the chance to be elite. Maybe they're not going to score as many fantasy points as AJ Brown or something, but their positional advantage, I think, makes up for that a little bit, right? I'll answer that. It does make up a little bit, but I don't want to, I don't want to pass on a player

whose floor is what those tight ends did last year. OK, those guys averaged 15 PPR points per game last year. They were awesome. It's going to take a lot of targets, a lot of catches for them to meet that in 2025. I'm particularly nervous about that for Bowers compared to McBride. That's why I had McBride first over Bowers and PPR. And I, as much as I love those guys and I want that positional advantage, I don't want to reach for it. I'd rather go and get a running back or a receiver that has that, that type of floor of 15 PPR points, but has the upside to get me even more, especially because I I and maybe this is just me Jamie You can answer differently if you want I love a lot of the tight ends that we can find late on draft day

And so I don't I don't want to reach for one of the tight ends Because I'd want to get two of those other tight ends later on Round 10 plus 9 plus and try and strike gold with one of them. I was looking for the but I couldn't find it Where's my why why the black? The late tight ends. You love the tight ends you can get later. Love? I was rocked hours last year, dude.

I mean, I guess it's worked out. It's worked out plenty of times. You have to be right. Obviously you don't want to draft Tyler Higby and then watch him suck for the first four weeks of the season or something like that. But even if you do worst case scenario, you're streaming the position. You're looking for a guy that can get you 10. You're looking for a guy that

can score you a touchdown and maybe get six targets in the game. It's a little bit more work than having a tight end that is a must start guy, but pretty sure George Kittle's a must start guy and I can get him in round three or round four. Pretty sure Sam Laporta will be a must start guy and you can get him in round four or round five. And then there's always those beautiful late round tight ends. No, just Bowers and McBride averaged more than 15 points per game last year with a combined seven touchdowns on 300 targets.

So they didn't get, did they touch 16? No, it was like 15. 15.2 for McBride, 15.5 for Bowers, but McBride had two touchdowns, Bowers had five. So I think you could see a scenario where they're scoring 17 points per game or something. Don't take away McBride's rushing touchdown. Okay, fair.

All right, Jamie, how do you see, sorry, we should have gotten into McCaffrey by now, but how do you see just this argument about where the elite players end? It's a little bit deeper for me because I think the tight ends do factor into that conversation. So it's almost like 20 or 21 players. So I don't necessarily cut it off at that spot, but like Drake London, for example, should be in this group for me of

guys being ranked here. And I wonder how much again Heath's rankings are probably significantly different because I know he's much lower on Derrick Henry. He's probably a little higher than I am on Kyron Williams and I know he's, I think Dave and I are McBride over Bowers so Bowers is probably a little bit higher than he is on Mc, he probably has Bowers a little bit higher on McBride. Yeah very very, very much. In the top 200. I just look at McAfree's, as we've discussed, a first round pick, if he's right. A.J. Brown is not far off from the receivers that we talked about yesterday with Nikko Collins and Amaro St. Brown and even, you know,

neighbors and Puka. I mean, you could see an easy path for Brian Thomas Jr. to be top five receiver if Travis Hunter spent a lot of time on defense. And I mean, the Jaguars are doing a great job of trying to disguise what they're doing with everything that Liam Cohen has said throughout Minicamp. And I don't know if you guys saw the social media post that they did when he signed his rookie contract.

They sent out two of them. We have signed Ricky wide receiver Travis Hunter to his rookie deal. We have signed rookie defensive back Travis Hunter to his rookie contract. They sent out two of them. We have signed Ricky wide receiver, Travis Hunter to his rookie deal. We have signed rookie defensive back Travis Hunter to his rookie deal simultaneously. They're having fun with it, which is great. Henry obviously, if he's, you know, Derek Henry again is a first round pick and I think he will be in average competition by the time we get to August. And then again, you throw in these other running backs of Kyron and Chase Brown and Bucky Irving and Jonathan Taylor and Josh Jacobs as Dave mentioned, you know, they're all sort of in a very close, you know, tier for me.

So I think that's why they're second round picks for reasons. So that, you know, it's, it's a, it, there's a chance for all these guys to be, you know, first round picks, borderline first round picks. It's just, you know, the sliding scale on how they sort of fall into round two. But especially McCaffrey, Brown, Thomas, Henry and London for me, I think you make case that they're all first round picks. All right, we got to take a break. Derek Henry, by the way, has been a top four running back on a per game basis in all three

formats in five of the last six seasons. The exception was 2023 when he was disappointing, but top four per game, Derek Henry in every format. Non PPR, half PPR, full PPR in five of the last six seasons. Okay, we'll be right back after this break. We'll talk about Christian McCaffrey after this. Discover the magic of Bet MGM Casino

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For the first time ever, the 32 best soccer clubs from across the world are coming together to decide who the undisputed champions of the world are in the FIFA Club World Cup. The world's best players, Messi, Holland, Kane and more are all taking part. And you can watch every match for free on DAZN starting on June 14th and running until July 13th. Sign up now at dazon.com slash FIFA. That's D-A-Z ZN dot com slash FIFA. Welcome back. Okay, so Christian McCaffrey is 13th. And he's just

gonna talk about him separately. You know, I do two, usually two at a time here. But McCaffrey, he just stands alone. He's just different, right? So Jamie, you said if he's right, he's a first round pick. Obviously, he's 13th in the ranking. So I don't think anyone's gonna argue with him's a first round pick. Obviously he's 13th in the ranking. So I don't think anyone's going to argue with him being a first round pick. You and Dave both have him 12th, Heath has him 13th. But, but I mean, what, what's to say that he isn't right? I mean, every single report is that he is right. So honestly, why isn't Christian McCaffrey in the top

five? I think it's right now versus right three months from now, you know, and that's the concern people have is, you know is you got burned by him pretty badly last season and he's not younger. His offensive line has maybe more concerns than he's had since he's joined the 49ers. And it's a fool me once, we've been down this road with him before. When he starts to get injured, it's not usually a one year thing. So I don't think your theory on it is wrong.

Like, why would you not, if you're going to commit to him in the first round, why would you not commit to him early in the first round if you have one of those selections, if you're so convinced that he's going to do this? And then you start to compare him to the other running backs in round one, and even the other receivers that have some question marks

in round one. So it, I think, comes down to where you pick and your confidence level on him, how quickly you want to pull the trigger on let's say Isaac or endo if you want to just make sure you handcuff this 49ers backfill, which is probably smart thing to do. So Yeah, he is a round one pick. He is Fantasy pros ADP. He's 11th would not be surprising right now Puka's 10 You can easily see that Malik neighbors is 9. He's the same passing him there st. St. Brown eight genti is, you know, clearly going to have his managers that are

concerned about that. So could he climb as high as seventh overall? Absolutely. Would not be a shock if that, that to me is probably the cutoff. Cause I think the other three running backs will most likely go ahead of him of B John Barkley and Gibbs and B John on their ADP is number one running back. Um, but yeah, I could see seventh overall right behind CDLAM.

Yeah, Dave, I was thinking about it this morning, right? Why would- Get a shower? No, I'm a night shower guy. But just to put this in perspective, how good has Christian McCaffrey been with the 49ers? So gets traded there in 2022. First game, he barely plays, plays less than 30%

of the snaps. Not a lot of work. The last 10 games of the regular season in 2022, he averaged 22.5 PPR fantasy points per game. 20.5, not half PPR, or 20, 20 on the dot, half PPR fantasy points per game. So that's really good. 2023, he's the number one running back in fantasy. He averages 24.7 PPR fantasy points per game. 22.6 half PPR fantasy points per game. He scored 21 touchdowns though in 16 games. He doesn't get as much work as he used to get. He's not a 115

catch guy anymore. He's more like an 80 catch guy with the 49ers. So the argument for me against what I've been saying about taking McCaffrey third overall is that he's not, at his best I still think he's the best running back. It's not so much better than the ceiling for Bijan, the ceiling for Barclay. It's not that anymore. So it might be one to two points better. So that's what you have to factor in, I think. He's not what he was in Carolina.

He still might be that good as a player, but they don't use him the same way. Now, look, they don't have Debo, Ayuk's hurt. Maybe they do throw to him more, but just based on what he's been with the 49ers, he's been amazing. Hasn't been super duper amazing like in the past. So maybe that's enough for people to say the difference between his ceiling and Barclay's ceiling and Bijan's ceiling and Gibbs' ceiling is not enough for me to take him in the top six. Preston Pysh, MPH, SESC, CDE, CDE, CD I think you'd bet against it for a 29 year old running back coming off of multiple lower body injuries.

And that's, that's the bulk of the case against McCaffrey. If you take out the injury risk. And I think everybody kind of use them as a high injury risk. I think if you're going to do that, let's just not forget that he didn't play much last year. And so there isn't as much wear and tear on his body. And if he can go through all of training camp without missing any time, you know, they rest them a couple of days a week, something like that. They manage his workload.

Then I think you can feel confident enough to take them in late round one. I'm kind of surprised I'm saying it myself because I remember after the season ended last year, I was like, no way he shouldn't be around one pick. Yeah, maybe he should because the upside of getting a guy that can put up 23, 24, 25 PPR points per game with a pick 10th or 11th, that's pretty good. I would take the chance on it, but Jamie hit on one thing. I don't want people who take McCaffrey to forget about handcuffing him. This will be something that I think we see a little bit more of from some of these riskier running backs that we're taking earlier is to try and get the

backup, especially in the case of McCaffrey. We think it's going to be Garendo. We saw Garendo play last year. He was pretty good when he had a lot of work in San Francisco. I'd want to, I'd want to kind of, you know, ensure the investment in McCaffrey by targeting Garendo in Round 8. And so if you're willing to take McCaffrey, and Adam, you can do this if you take him third overall, I would strongly encourage you to commit that Round eight pick to Garendo. And then even if you don't take McCaffrey getting Garendo in round nine,

round 10, if you see him sitting there, do it. Adam, let me ask you a question. How many, as the McCaffrey guy, how many games would you need him to play to justify taking him in the top 10? Assuming he played all of the fantasy playoffs, didn't burn me there, I would say 14. I would say I'd be okay with him missing three games. I agree, is that the max? Maximum. I'd go lower.

Fair. Let me ask you guys this, if I guaranteed you that every player in football was playing 17 games, who would be the first pick pick in the who would be your top three picks in fantasy chase Bijan Bijan, Chase, Gibbs, McCaffrey would probably be next okay all right so look that's it they just said on a per game basis they basically expect McCaffrey would probably be next. Okay. All right, so look, that's it. They just said on a per game basis, they basically expect McCaffrey to be a top four player.

So it's really just a personal risk assessment for all of you. Well put. And we can move on. But I was the last thing, I think I've said this a couple of weeks ago, my biggest issue with McCaffrey, honestly, is just to keep the streak alive.

If I draft Christian McCaffrey in round one, I really don't think I can draft Tyree Kill in round three. I think that's too much risk. Well, but what is it? Is just you're talking about older player coming off of an injury that hurt his numbers. Yeah. And honestly, before last year, like Kishan McAfee is 29. Before last year, age 29 looked like a really bad year for running backs. I could give you Melvin Gordon, DeMarco Murray, I think LaShawn McCoy. There were some just bad, bad years.

Guys fell off a cliff at 29. And then James Connor and Aaron Jones were both good at age 29. Derek Henry was unbelievable at age 30. So are we rewriting what we knew about age 29? There's still that risk with McCaffrey. 29 is not young. And he had more touches than most of those guys knew about age 29, there's still that risk with McCaffrey. 29 is not young. And he had more, he had more touches

than most of those guys entering their 29, age 29 season, even though he's missed so much time with injury. So yeah, it's just a little too risky. All right, enough about Tyree Kill. Let's go to AJ Brown and Brian Thomas Jr. They are next in the consensus rankings, 14 and 15. AJ Brown and Brian Thomas Jr. Who do you guys like better?

Thomas. They are literally back to back in my rankings. I've got Thomas ahead of Brown. Okay, so Jamie, why Thomas ahead of Brown? I know it's obviously close. You also have them back to back. Do you have a strong preference or just whatever? Roll the dice. Right now it's Thomas. That could easily change,

again, depending on how strong the reports are and the positive for Travis Hunter playing offense. You don't have the rookie season that he had and get the type of play caller that the Bucks got, that's the Jaguars got from the Bucks and Liam Cohen and as good as it may have been for him from the standpoint of no Kirk and no Ingram and a quarterback that had a YOLO mentality of Mac Jones, I'm hoping that the quarterback talent of Trevor Lawrence is going to be a benefit for Brian Thomas. So he was fed targets. He was awesome.

And you go back to this time last year, and we were talking about rookie wide receivers following the draft. Oh yeah, Thomas, he's probably a project, you know, his young receiver coming out LSU made a lot of big plays, but is he going to be a polished receiver? I mean, my God, he was unbelievable. And especially what he did in those final six games. So, you know, that seems like the maturation process, the development process has really been accelerated for him. And I think he's going to thrive in this offense, you know.

So whether he's the Mike Evans, the Chris Godwin, a combination of the two, you know, Liam Cohen moving these guys around and, you know, just putting his imprint on it with a different passer and players, like the sky's the limit for me. So you know, I think we've seen this a few times, like getting neighbors and Thomas at the turn is a pretty fun way to start your team. Yes. Again, you know, Hunter could take away from that

because Kirk and Ingram weren't there. So he was sharing the field with, you know, a bunch of nobodies essentially. And I do think that it does, you know, sort of factor. And I know we're going to talk about this on FFT Express, some late round veterans. I do think they like Diami Brown, probably more so than just a throwaway signing.

So he's gonna get some opportunities. I think Brenton Strangel gets some opportunities, but I just think the upside for what he showed as a rookie and what's ahead for him in year two, I'm just really excited about it. Whereas AJ Brown has become a very safe staple for fantasy managers. I think I talked about it on FFT Express yesterday, three straight years, averaging at least 16.7 PPR points per game. Last year, he did that on seven and a half targets per game. He had at least 15 PPR points in seven

of 13 games. There were four games when he had 15 PPR points, even when Saquon also least 15 PPR points in seven of 13 games. There were four games when he had 15 PPR points, even when Saquon also had 15 PPR points. I think we'd all wish that those numbers were a little bit higher. I'm encouraged by the note out of Philadelphia that new offensive coordinator, Kevin Patulo said they want to kind of change up their offense a little bit, maybe throw a little bit more. And we're, we're going to make a bare case for Saquon Barkley. We've already started. I talked about it on yesterday's show, just the track record of running backs that have 400 plus carries in a season and how they perform the year

after that, if, if we're talking about a year where Saquon isn't Saquon or heaven forbid he's not even on the field, we can see an uptick in targets for AJ Brown. And that'll make this call of Brown behind Thomas potentially look foolish. But he feels like a safe number one fantasy wide receiver for me, maybe without that type of upside that BTJ has. Because we saw a little glimpse of that upside last year with Thomas Jr. And when he was cooking with Mack Jones, I don't want you to think that he was just getting nonstop, you know, 20-plus-air yard targets. He was getting short-area targets, too. And he was making plays with them. I do worry a little bit about a lot of those targets going to Travis Hunter this year. And I also went back and looked. There weren't many games last year when multiple Tampa Bay receivers each had eight targets in a game.

So when we talk about funneling targets, this plays to Diami Brown, actually, Jamie, when we talk about funneling targets in Jacksonville, and we're assuming, well, Thomas will get a ton and Hunter will get a ton and no one else will get any. I don't know if that's how Liam Cohen is going to play it. That's not how he played it in Tampa. It does make me a little bit nervous. But what ultimately makes me feel better about BTJ is that his efficiency can get off the charts good. He could get better than how he was last year. And he could really round into the form of one of the most complete receivers in the NFL. And just if you want to look for an example on film of just how quickly he was able to adapt to the game, go look at his touchdown, week one against Miami, heady play running the back line of the end zone. And it's with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback. I think that that's an example of what Brian Thomas Jr. showed us early on that let us know that he was a more complete receiver than we thought he was when he was a prospect coming out of LSU.

That's one of my favorite throws of the season actually. Not that I've watched every throw, but that Trevor Lawrence touchdown pass against Miami to Brian Thomas Jr. in week one is lost in time. An absolutely incredible throw, just brilliant play. Anyway, so Brian Thomas Jr. you guys do have a head and you know, I think did you have him ahead of Malik neighbors before the NFL draft? Just curious.

Thomas out of neighbors? Yeah. No. No. Okay. Did you move? Thomas was a solid round one pick for me. Okay. But so you move him down a little bit after they took Hunter. You have to you have because I don't think there's any way he's going to average.

What the hell did he average in, uh, in his last few games? Last four games on pace for 204 targets. Yeah. I don't think that's going to happen, Adam. Yeah, but that's, but that's true. Um, I still think that between him and Hunter, they could have about half the targets on the team. Uh, probably a little bit more than half. I don't think that that's crazy to think about, but just a little, not a lot.

He's also not going to average 5.7 targets per game. That's what he had weeks one through 11 before the buy. Okay. So I'll just give this number last nine games of the year was when Christian Kirk got hurt. 159 target pace. Evan Ingram only played four, four or five of them. Whatever. Yeah, it's not worth going through that. But AJ Brown is worth talking about. Let me know if you guys agree with this. Like

AJ Brown is super safe. And if you're weighing in the second round, AJ Brown versus a player that you're a little nervous about, maybe you're nervous about Kyron Williams or Josh Jacobs, you have your reasons, whatever, just take AJ Brown. Because he averaged 16.7 PPR fantasy points per game last year, with the Eagles throwing for 3,500 yards with him on pace for only 127 targets. The two years before that he was on pace for about 150 targets. So that's, I don't know how he does worse than 16.7 fantasy points per game. He's been top seven per game, exactly seventh per

game in full PPR and two of three seasons with Philadelphia. I mean, he's just, he's just so safe and so reassuring. And if you're worried about that pick, just take AJ Brown and feel good about it. Is that kind of how you feel? His fantasy throws ADP is insane. What is it? 20. And there's a big difference between him being 15th

in our, what is he, 14th in our consensus? Sorry, 21. He's 14th and the 20 and 21 that's just a big difference and that's that's a steal. He's going behind and again, you know, positions obviously are different for every fantasy manager, but he's going behind Bowers behind Jacobs behind London, behind Irving and behind Jonathan Taylor. behind London, behind Irving and behind Jonathan Taylor.

If I recall, fantasy pros ADP is very heavy at running back. No, it's heavy. No, I think it's heavy wide receiver actually. It's heavy wide receiver. What'd you say Dave? It also takes underdogs best ball ADP into consideration. All right. So how, okay, with that whole safe thing with AJ Brown, I don't want to discount the upside because yeah, he did finish his wide receiver seven per game in both 2022

and 2023. But he's, you know, almost 1500 yards both years. One year he had 11 touchdowns, one year he had seven touchdowns. I mean, one year he had 106 catches, one year he had 11 touchdowns, one year he had seven touchdowns. I mean, one year he had 106 catches, one year he had 106 catches and seven touchdowns, one year he had 88 catches and 11 touchdowns. But what if he had 106 catches and 11 touchdowns? And still that close to 1500 yards. He probably got a top five receiver there. I don't know, what do you guys think the upside is of AJ Brown? In this offense, I think he's probably 100 catches and 10 touchdowns.

Yep. Wide receiver. What is the AJ Brown's upside? Oh, um, six or seven. I'd go a little bit higher than that if he's getting those kinds of numbers. And you don't have to look too far back to see the upside with him. I've got it in 13 games in 2023 with Devontae Smith and Dallas Goddard playing. He averaged 10.1 targets per game and at 19.5 PPR points per game. That was the year where Saquon was on the Giants, Deandre Swift was on Philly, they threw the ball more. That just makes sense. If he's going to average two and a half more targets per game, yeah, his numbers are going to go up a lot. And so that's the bull case for AJ Brown is, oh, suddenly Philadelphia can't run the ball as efficiently as they did last year.

And when they throw it, AJ Brown's a hero. I don't know how likely that is. I wouldn't put a percentage higher than like 25% on something like that happening. But that's part of the upside case for some for Brown. And obviously, the downside case is, I don't even know what the downside case is, Adam, I said it, you said it, he's safe. Those last three seasons is per game average, you can set your watch to it. All right, let's take a break and talk about Derek Henry. When we come back, Derek Henry, Kyron Williams, Brock Bowers, who should go first in that group, we'll be right back.

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Can you make a case for Kyron Williams to be the first in that trio? I mean, you certainly can. He's been awesome the last two seasons, you know, and looking at his production in a contract year, you know, there's two ways to look at it. He's going to, you know, hopefully go crazy because he wants to get paid. And maybe the other side of that is the Rams are going to run into the ground because they want to move on from him and not have to pay another running back and maybe follow the mistakes that they had with Todd Gurley.

So I think the concern would be is they spend another draft pick on another running back that they seem to like a lot. And this is one of the best teams that we've seen in the less need era of finding, you know, late round picks, Kyron Williams in particular, and getting great production out of them. Now, the flip side of that is they drafted the running back last year and barely used them in Blake Horham

because Kyron's been so, I don't wanna say extremely productive because they don't get a lot of big plays out of their run game, but he just does the things that you ask him to do. And this is kind of these conversations we have about veterans versus maybe players who are more explosive, but he's been productive in this role. You know, he scores touchdowns, he does enough in the passing game, fumbles

a little bit at times, but still not enough. I think that's a hindrance to him. And clearly he's been their guy. And, you know, you hear Sean McVeigh talk about it you know I know I spoke to Kyron at the Pro Bowl two years ago and this was coming off his first big season he was just had come back you know talk about a guy that loves to play football came back to the Pro Bowl clearly his first time he had just broken his finger in the playoffs if you recall came back and played in the Pro Bowl you know a few weeks later so kids a baller and has been awesome. I don't think it's a shock to say that he can be among

the touchdown leaders at the position and certainly can be, around that 20 point per game number that we love at that spot. He's gotta be more effective and he's gotta hold onto the damn ball. He had four fumbles lost last year, including the one in the playoffs when, when, uh, uh, they were down one point in the fourth quarter, start the fourth quarter against Philadelphia.

And he, he costs up the ball and the Rams couldn't recover. Uh, he effectively had the same amount of touches he had from 2023. He averaged fewer yards per carry, yards per catch, yards before contact, yards after contact, fewer fantasy points per game. He went from 21.2 to 17.0. He had a higher rate of negative rush yards, a lower rate of avoided tackles. And if he continues to fumble without improving his efficiency, and if the Rams really, I think one of the reasons why they didn't pull Kyron last year is because they didn't like what they were getting out of Blake Coram in practice. And they didn't see anything with Blake Coram. And clearly they didn't, they're not in love with Blake Coram.

Otherwise, I don't know if they would have drafted Hunter. Hunter's an interesting back. I don't think he's necessarily, you know, a dynamo. But if he can come to camp and prove that he can handle some work, Sean McVeigh might not have a tough time sitting Kyron Williams. You talk about the contract and Kyron clearly is motivated for a new deal. Are the Rams just kicking it down the road? They keep saying, we're close, we're close. I don't know how much that's going to end up being a factor. All I know is I don't feel like the same type of ceiling is there for Kyren as I did this time last year.

He had a season, like I said, 21 fantasy points per game in PPR. That's what you're hoping for him doing in 2024. He fell by 20%. I wonder if that number comes down just a little bit more again this year. That's why he's a clear second round pick for me and not one that I'm necessarily in love with. I would reluctantly take him in round two. And I would also look to get Hunter. I don't have to reach for him in round eight. I think I can get Jarquez Hunter in round 10, round 11 to have in case there's a change at running back in LA. Yeah. One of the things that

I mentioned last year about Kyron Williams, who averaged five yards per carry in 2023, when he was the number two running back per game, he had such an easy schedule. He did not face a single team that finished the year. Oh, Adam. Was that? Go ahead. No, I know. I'm I and this is a great segue, right? He did in 2023. Kyron did not face a single team

that finished the season in the top 10 in yards per carry allowed to running backs. Eight of the 12 opponents he faced were bottom 10 in yards per carry allowed to running backs. It was so easy. And he went from five yards per carry to 4.1 yards per carry. And this is not a guy who hits big plays.

As Jamie mentioned, it's not a home run thread. I think he had two carries last year of more than 20 yards. So Dave, what were you, I know we have a segue here with the schedule. Sure. So you guys know that I like to study the defense at about this time every single year. I finished my studying of all 32 defenses, grade each defense, both from, you know, passing perspective, secondary, how they cover tight ends, how they cover running backs, how they do against the run. And I believe that Kyron Williams has one of the toughest early-season schedules. And I don't think I needed to do a whole study to prove it. In the first 6 weeks, the only easy matchup Kyron Williams has will be against Tennessee and Indianapolis. And I kind of like Indianapolis' run defense. I think that they could be a tough unit. His other games are against the Texans, Eagles, Niners, Ravens.

Think about those defenses. Texans, Eagles, Niners, Ravens. Those are tough matchups for any running back. He played against two of those teams twice each last year. He had one game with more than 13.2 PPR points, one game with more than 11.2 non-PPR points against the Niners and Eagles combined. So I'm, I can, I am getting more and more nervous about Kyron Williams. I've got him ahead of Josh Jacobs right now. I could see myself changing that in the very near future and taking Jacobs, who doesn't have an easy schedule either, either, but I might like him better better just overall opportunity, talent, etc. over Kyron Williams. Kyron's fantasy pros ADP is behind Jacobs, Irving, Taylor and oh he's behind those other guys for me.

Yeah it's a bit it's interesting yeah where do you have him Jamie? I'm ahead of those guys for now. It's interesting is we are being really negative on Kyron Williams. All he's done is produce, right? Right. That's the thing. And one other thing is obviously the Larrick Jackson, you know, a health status, you know, offensive line could be taking a hit if he's not there. Also, Dave, I'm not quite sure the 49ers scare me right now. Their defense is completely different than it was a year ago.

I like the I like the youth they added on the D line. I think it's actually, I like the line, but obviously Fred Warner's a stud, but I like that Green Law obviously with his injury isn't there, D winners will play. I'm not ready to rule out that Niners run defenses being one of the better units in the league. I'm not going to say they're top five, but they're still going to be a tough out for him. It's also the return of Salah is going to help too. Yeah. Big time. Good movie. That's going to be,

that'll be more effective for the pass rush than it will be for the run. All right, Jamie, tell me why Derek Henry is not a first round pick for you after he, I say this all the time, averages many PPR, PPR fantasy points per game as Bijon Robinson. He did that with only 19 carries, catches.

I mean, he's awesome. You know, it's just a matter of how much longer is he going to continue to defy father time? And he keeps proving us wrong. The people like me who are, you know, ageist and worry about these things and worry about him breaking down and he just doesn't. And it's hopefully going to continue until he just decides to retire. But you know, the fact that he went to Baltimore and this was the argument for him was that his numbers the previous season, and really his entire career, but numbers previous season

were so much more dramatic because of the lack of wins in Tennessee. He was so much better with the Titans when they won those games in 2023, the few that they did, that he goes to the Ravens where Harbaugh averages 10 wins a year during his career and he was exceptional. And so he doesn't have to catch the ball the way that he performs, the touchdowns that he scores and now on a much more productive team across the board. So he's 31 now, you know, turn 31 in January.

Running backs just don't continue to produce at this age historically. However, the great ones do and he's great. And so I think it's just time, I know I've, you know, just put my feelings on his age and, you know, concerns just decided at this point, okay, he's a late round one, early round two selection selection if you're looking for a running back in that range so right after for me it's McCaffrey these this is the spot for

him so yeah late round one early round two if you are you know so inclined to just continue to buy into him completely he's probably again going back to you know the the names that listed after CD Lam so starting with Gent at seventh overall, you can make a case that that's where Derek Henry belongs because we could sit here and say, McCaffrey has risks. Well, Henry hasn't shown those risks and he's two years older. And so clearly how they get their job done is different, but at the end of the day, you want those fantasy points and Derek Henry has continually given you those fantasy points, that fantasy production.

He's just awesome. You can make the case that Derek Henry should be a top five pick full PPR. Yeah. Because when things go right for him, things are awesome. How many, how many touches per game do you think he will average this year? Guys? No, 21, 22 touches per game. 20.

Yeah. 20 to 22, I guess. Okay. Well, there were 14 games last year where he had at least 14 touches and he averaged 21.4 PPR points per game in those 14 20.2 non PPR points per game. He scored 15 touchdowns. He had 10 games with at least a hundred total yards and two more with 96 total yards. He also had three games with 11 or fewer touches. I'd have to really look into those games to see why he only had 11 or fewer touches.

And he predictably stunk in those games. He did have three touchdowns. I think it's pretty simple at this point that he's a monster who needs to be fed. The Ravens don't, they've got other backs there. They've got, you know, smaller guys, Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell's healthy and he's running real fast.

He said he ran over 23 miles an hour recently. I think that's cool, but they're not going to use those guys when they've got a host like Henry in the backfield. You know he's going to get the ball at the goal line. As long as he gets a decent amount of work every single week, he's a slam dunk. And so it's almost the same type of thing that we said about McCaffrey, how much risk are you willing to take? But it's, it's easier, it's, it's seemingly easier to take the risk with Henry, because he hasn't pulled a McCaffrey where he's missed almost an entire season because of an injury popping up. And he didn't have

back to back terrible years. There just isn't any, there are no signs of Derek Henry wearing down. Well, I don't know. There were though. That's the thing like he would there were when his last three years in Tennessee averaged 4.2 to 4.4 yards per carry, which really just wasn't good for him. He wasn't he wasn't as good I think before contact. He was good at contact. And then what change? What opportunities change?

Right. I know. But it was a surprise. And to me, anyway, I didn't see him going from four point two yards per carry to five point nine yards per carry. And that, I think, is coming down. Five point nine yards per carry is not happening again. I'm actually less concerned about he averaged about a touchdown per game. I'm less concerned about that with Henry

than I am with the 5.9 yards per carry. But they, you know, but if he doesn't average 5.9 yards per carry, it's gonna be harder to score all the touchdowns, he probably won't have quite as many long ones, I would assume. So I just, I think he overachieved last year, as great as he is. And by the way, with the catches,

if you're worried about the catches with Henry, I mentioned five of the last six years he's been top four per game in every format. In three of those years, he's averaged 1.1 to 1.2 catches per game. He always does it. I just don't know how efficient he's gonna be because 5.9 yards per carry is,

you cannot expect anything close to that for anyone. I don't know how much of a decline it will be because of the team that he plays on. I mean, Lamar Jackson's threat is so dramatic and what he does as a passer, obviously as a rusher, the, you know, the RPOs, all those things that they do in this offense to create space for their run game. I mean, it's just, it was the perfect marriage. And you know, you saw it. He was, you know, at one point, you know, people were saying, why is Lamar Jackson an MVP when he has maybe an MVP in his backfield as well? Like, you know, there's, there's, there's just so much to love about what Derek Henry did last

year. So yeah, maybe it goes, what'd you say, 5.9? Yeah. So maybe it's 5.2, you know, maybe it's 4.9. Like, you know, you use it, lose a yard and still be very successful. It's just, you know, I think just by nature of this, really, that I, again, I'll, I'll say it. And I've been probably the most anti Derek Henry on the show for years is it's just an injury. I don't think it's a production thing or a performance thing at this point with him that's gonna, you know, maybe he slows down a little bit, but I don't think he's coming off the field. The catches haven't mattered for him as you alluded to.

And so like, unless he misses a significant stretch of the season, I have a hard time not seeing him be in the top 10 at this position. Okay, so then you guys have him, Dave has him 14th overall, Jamie has Henry 16th overall, and Heath has Henry 21st overall. Well, let's finish with Brock Bowers here.

Because- Hold on, wait, just quickly on Henry. Okay. The other reason why you're not seeing him is a top 10 pick in our PPR rankings is the ceiling argument. You don't you never want to draft a guy too close to a ceiling. And I think because of the injury risk, although this is the point I really want to make how many soft tissue injuries have

as Derek has a thing. He's not. Nothing. Chris McCaffrey had two last year, you can't call him an injury risk based on his career. He literally like broke his foot in half. Yep. Yeah. And it was after the 2000 yard season. And he kept playing right? He did. Broke his foot. Well he did and then he didn't. Yeah. For the rest of the game. Okay. So Brock Bowers. Dave, I think you should start on Bowers. You're super low on him compared to consensus. Heath has Bowers

12th. Jamie has him 19th and Dave has Bowers 26th. And that's how you get 18th in the consensus rankings. Not even a second round pick for you just just after and one spot behind McBride. Sure. Raiders were top five in pass rate last year. They didn't have a run game. Their defense was atrocious. They had to throw the ball a lot. And Bowers was that guy for them that bailed out their terrible quarterbacks. Game after game, 8.7 targets per game, 6.6 catches per game. It's all changing now. It's a different offensive scheme. It's

going to be one that's going to be more run-focused. That's going to bring down the number of pass attempts per game they're going to have. Their defense is going to be healthier. They should be schemed better than they were last year. That's going to give fewer opportunities for everybody in the offense. But certainly the addition of Gentie and the dedication of the run that both Carroll and Chip Kelly will have will impact the amount of opportunities per game that Brock Bowers will give you. And so, it's nitpicky, but I just, he's going to be one player that I'm definitely not going to reach on. Certainly don't want to draft him close to what he did last year. I think McBride will catch more passes provided that he stays healthy. And I just really believe that Bowers is a great talent, top two fantasy tight end, a stud. I don't want to reach for him knowing that the entire environment has changed in Las Vegas. I don't even care. There's stuff out there about, well, Chip Kelly's never had a tight end and a prolific role in his

offense. Dude, I don't care. That doesn't matter because Bowers is the best pass catcher they have. But he's just, he's not going to get quite as many opportunities as he did last year. Jamie, you're higher at 17th or 19th. Was it sorry on Brock Bowers? Yeah, I agree with what Dave said. And a lot of that.

I think the opportunities will be a little bit better though, even if they come down from the target percentage, because I think the quarterback is going to be better. I mean, Geno Smith coming in, I think is better as a proven quarterback than what he was dealing with last year. And yes, the environment has changed, but I think overall it's changed for the better. So you hope that, again, what he was doing was so raw last year, and now he has a better understanding of what his job is, what his role is, what the league is, what defenses are, that he just continues to show, as we see from a lot of these guys, typically it's

the breakout in year two at this position. Can you imagine if he somehow manages to get better? This is a kid that showed one of the best rookie seasons ever at this position and really one of the best rookie seasons ever, period, in any position offensively. It's hard not to buy into the talent and what he still can be and continue to become. I don't want to take him in round one. I think Heath is definitely drafting him as ceiling if he's taking him to 12. Again, I think Trey McBride's going to see

not a spike in touchdowns, but a bump in touchdowns. And I think what we saw at the end of last year where they were trying to feed him the ball in the red zone and trying to get him more involved in that aspect of the game somewhat carries over this year. So I think the touchdowns will be closer if not in his favor, not that Bauer scored a lot. But I think there's a reason that these two guys

should be drafted even ahead of Kittle. And I'm a big Kittle guy this year. I think he you know, there, there's a reason that these two guys should be drafted even ahead of Kittle and, and I'm a big Kittle guy this year. I think he's around three pick. Um, if they hit to their ceiling, like we could be talking about the next Kelsey Graham, Kelsey Kittle, you know, these guys could wreck fantasy. You know, you said it Adam, like, you know, the, the position at edge you get with McBride and Bowers could be so dramatic. guys could wreck fantasy. You know, you said it out. I'm like, you know, the, the position at edge you get with McBride and Bowers could be so dramatic. Like we're talking about these

guys as first round picks in 2026. And you guys have McBride one spot ahead of Bowers, both of you. Heath has Bowers 12th, McBride 23rd. The way I see it between those two is they were pretty much dead even last year with both of them having bad touchdown luck. Obviously McBride being in his third season and Bowers being in his first season, people are going to favor Bowers in that side of the argument. But as you guys just laid out, so much has changed for Bowers. And is it positive? Is it negative? That's up for you to decide. Yes, he gets the quarterback upgrade. He gets the coaching

upgrade, but also the genti factor, the run heavy nature of Pete Carroll. I think that's a little bit overrated, but it's a lot more than, yeah, fourth most past attempts in the NFL last year for the Raiders. It's a lot more run heavy than what the Raiders were last year. Nothing's really changed for McBride. Like Marvin Harrison having more confidence and Marvin Harrison putting on weight, which may or may not be a good thing. It's just nothing changed. McBride's done it two years in a row because after Earth's went down in 2023, McBride was unbelievable. So is that kind of what you guys are thinking why McBride is head of Bowers for you guys?

Exactly. Yes. I'll be at one spot for you. Okay. And yeah, I guess the last thing I would say, does this matter at all to you? Going into his second season, Kyle Pitts was the 33rd pick in ADP on Fantasy Pros. He had a terrible second season. He only played 10 games He had 356 yards going into his second season

Sam Laporta was the 32nd pick in fantasy pros ADP almost identical to Kyle Pitts He did not have a terrible season, but he was the number nine tight end per game after being the number three tight end per Game the year before Brock Bowers is currently I think 18th actually in fantasy pros, ADP. So that's a round and a half ahead of pits in the Porta. But those two guys were coming off terrific rookie seasons. Not as good as better as I know. Had high ADPs round three.

They were they're brutal. So if you're going to use the pits comparison, you have to think that Geno Smith is a downgrade from the quarterbacks that the Raiders had last year. And the only reason I say that is because Pits went from Matt Ryan, who was a guy that Arthur Smith trusted and threw the ball out more to the crap that he went to in year two of Desmond Ritter and Terrell Hannecke. And they also added Drake London that year.

And he had 117 targets Drake London as a rookie. Fair. I don't think Jack Besh is the same prospect. It's not Besh. It's Thornton. And I don't think Thornton is the same type of prospect. The common thread between Pitts and Laporta is injuries. Pitts got hurt in season. His knee was messed up. I don't know if he even recovered from it two years later. And Laporta was banged up to start the year. And then once he started to feel better, his numbers went up. Yeah. All right. I just want to throw that out. I was probably, you can get a little bit of trouble trying to make all these comparisons. And that kind of came up actually hours as

a stud. Yeah. That kind of came up earlier in the show where someone in the chat said all the arguments you're making against McCaffrey, you were making against Barkley last year, which is somewhat true. And I guess one thing I would say is, all the arguments we're making against Eric Henry, we were making against Eric Henry last year, but just because they were wrong last year,

doesn't necessarily mean they're gonna be wrong again. This year, it's, you know, you can, well, this worked out in 2024. So it's going to work out in 2025. It's not necessarily. Right. I mean, if there was evidence on film that Derek Henry looked a step slower toward the end of last year, I think we'd recognize that. And we would, and we would absolutely factor that in, but there really isn't any sign of that. I want to try to read a couple of emails here, except I haven't gone through them.

So I'm just going to pick some from my inbox. This one is from Ty from a city west of Seattle. West of Seattle, Shanghai, China. Dear Andrew, Miles, Aaron and TJ. Those would be Pacers. Who are some players that their value is so tied to volume that in half PPR, their value actually falls significantly? So I guess it's Target Volume.

Yep. Or Gary's. But in half PPR, those guys would be go up in half PPR, the guys whose carries are unless you're saying they don't get a lot of carries. I don't know there's a lot of guys that fit this description, but who are some wide receivers that catches we should say are so important that their values drop significantly in half PPR or tight ends?

are so important that their values drop significantly in half PPR or tight ends? Oh, I'm sorry. I misheard the question. McBride? Yeah, it's guys like that. Think high target volume, low everything else. Like up touchdowns. Right.

Like I'm trying to find players that had like a four point difference on a per game average. From full PPR to half PPR. Here's one that's interesting. Jamar Chase. Not that I'm saying you're going to pass on Chase with an early round. You can have PPR. 3.7 point difference between full PPR and half PPR. Wow. Really? point difference between full PPR and half PPR for Chase. Yeah. Chase is kind of an interesting player because he was this kind of downfield threat,

I believe as a rookie. And ever since then, the Bengals have been so short area with their passing game. It's really weird. And he doesn't really have that high of an A-dot and he doesn't, we've seen him make explosive plays, but Jamar Chase's explosive play rate might surprise you.

It's not what you think. Shakir went from 12.2 to 9.6. I want to get to two guys that Jamie said. You talked about McBride and Puka. Are you just assigning them low touchdown totals basically? You expecting that? I mean, that's kind of been their history, right? There's no reason to believe it's gonna change.

I think McBride can, again, to what level is hard to, you know, qualify because he's never been a eight touchdown guy, certainly never been a 10 touchdown guy. You know, can he be a six, seven touchdown guy? You can tell I've been hanging around a lot of teenagers lately, 6'7, that they say it all the time. The way that he has gotten his numbers done has been high volume receptions and the arts. So Puka, the same thing, was he scored nine years career? Yeah. So it's not a lot to say here to sit here and say like, oh my gosh,

they're going to be, you know, dynamic touchdown producer. So every change in format is going to hurt them a little bit. All right. That's the only email we're reading. Thank you very much, everybody. We will talk to you tomorrow on fantasy football today as we wrap up the consensus top 24 and no Dave tomorrow and no Jamie tomorrow. Right? Sad. Nope. We both have this day tournament. We both have little league coaching to do. But Heath and Dan will be talking about 19 through 24 in the

consensus rankings. Have a great day everybody. Talk to you tomorrow. I can't wait to change all my rankings so I can close everything off.