Fantasy Football Today - Consensus Top 24; NFL Camp Buzz (06/14 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 14, 2021

We've got a lot of news to cover including Saquon Barkley's timeline (3:00), the roles of Joe Mixon and Miles Sanders (4:10), the best Patriots WR (8:00), Irv Smith's situation and players who are getting some buzz from NFL teams and reporters (12:30)! Keep an eye on Laviska Shenault ... Getting into our consensus Top 24, it's RB-heavy at the top of course, but should Barkley be a Top 5 pick even if he's fully healthy (22:33)? Where's the love for Aaron Jones (27:30)? We also get into Travis Kelce vs. the stud RBs (31:00) and when to take the first two WRs (37:05) ... As we move to 13-24 in the rankings, we attempt to figure out if you should be drafting the 10th RB off the board or the 3rd WR off the board (42:15). What does the research suggest? Then we discuss the rankings including who just missed the Top 24 ... Email us at [e-mail] Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races. Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. How many tight ends made our top 24?

How many quarterbacks made our top? Okay, you know the answer to that one is zero. Hey, should you draft, let's say, the 8th, 9th, 10th running back in your rankings or the 3rd, 4th, or 5th best wide receiver in your rankings? I will give you some help answering that question because they're going to be going in similar spots. Today we reveal our consensus top 24, which is, of course, going to change over the next couple of months. But let's take a look at what we've got here in mid-June. I'm Adam Azer with Heath Cummings and Dave Richard. Who had the best weekend

this week? Who wants to share? I didn't do anything very special this weekend hung around the house spent some time with the wife got out of the house a little bit too may have made some money while i was out of the house oh good you know you know what happened to me uh i went out to dinner a couple times and both times when i went out i regretted my meal like i i originally wanted to get one thing well come on and then i ordered something else and then the thing that i ordered was a disappointment i wish i had you know had a time machine what were they go back and buy uh amazon stuff what are we talking about maybe get the veal chop do you are you not hearing me when i ask you a question what what

meals were what did you want and not get you know i wanted to get this like special veal chop that they have at this italian restaurant in our neighborhood and it just the price was outrageous i couldn't i couldn't do it and i wasn't that hungry so i went with the lasagna and uh the lasagna was a massive disappointment like noodles were stuck together sauce didn't taste right it was really just not very good and then uh and then what did i had i ended up eating this is gonna blow your mind adam i had a salad for dinner oh geez what happened on passed on getting uh meatloaf and went with the salad oh god i would do any regret all over the place i would do anything for dinner dave, but I won't do that.

Okay, shouldn't have passed on the meatloaf. Heath, I hope you had a great weekend, too. Welcome to the show. Let's get into the news. Okay, I got a lot of news here, a lot of news. Heath, I want you to tell me what you think is the most important thing right now, okay? And we can talk about all these things individually, but what's the big headline? We've got Philadelphia's running back coach Jamelleton, didn't endorse having an every down back.

We've got Amari Cooper. He's likely going to miss the start of training camp with an ankle injury. Saquon Barkley not giving a timetable for his return. Let's see. Jarvis Landry said Beckham looks amazing. Joe Mixon is going to share some third down work. Irv Smith's role is not going to be bigger, and I have even more than that.

But what's the biggest headline from the weekend? Don't you dare cut out Jacoby Myers as the Patriots' number one wide receiver, just as he has been ever since last year. No, I think the most important thing there, and we don't know

fully yet how important it is but for me it's still the Saquon Barkley thing like we we just a couple weeks ago we're hearing about how they really wanted him to share at the start of the season he doesn't have a full timetable he's not 100% right now they went and made an effort to get Devante Booker who did a very good job in a secondary role with Josh Jacobs last year. If Saquon Barkley's role looks anything like what Josh Jacobs did last year, he's going to be a massive disappointment as a top five pick. And he is consensus number five right now in our PPR rankings.

That's what we're doing today. Our PPR consensus top 24. Salad Man, give me the second biggest headline that I just read off. You mentioned the mixing thing, right? I did, yeah. I'm checking right now to see exactly how many third downs he played last year.

And keep in mind, he didn't play in very many games. But on running downs, I've got 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. 10 third downs where he ran. And then on passing plays, I don't think there's going to be very many of these on third down. There's not. There's two. So he played 12 third downs in how many games did he play? Four, five,

something like that. Didn't play a lot of games. Didn't have a lot of third downs. So sharing a third down role, that's good news for Joe Mixon. And remember, they don't have Giovanni Bernard anymore. It's going to be interesting to see who he shares that role with. Chris Evans is a rookie running back.

They drafted him out of Michigan. He didn't really have much of a senior year. But prior to 2020, he was a decent passing downs back for Michigan. So I wonder if he could push Samaj P. Ryan and Travion Williams for that gig. Not that it's really going to matter for fantasy other than maybe a late pick in best ball or in the Scott Fish Bowl, something like that. Okay, quick follow-ups on some of these news items. So I mentioned that Philadelphia's running back coach didn't endorse the every down back kind of role. That's kind of a big meatball right there. Nobody was projecting Miles Sanders for an every down roll.

All right, so my question is, I'm guessing the answer is Mixon. If I ask you who gets more touches, Mixon or Sanders, if it is Mixon, how much of a difference is there in touches in your mind between Mixon and Miles Sanders? Probably an average of two and a half a game. Off the top of my head,

because I think Sanders, I think he can still get 15 touches per game. I off the top of my head because i think sanders i think he can still get 15 touches per game i think the majority of them will be carries because philadelphia just added too many backs that can handle passing downs work and uh mixon is going to see an uptick in passing downs work so maybe it'll come in catches and it'll just be two and a half more catches per game for mixon over mile sanders i have jo Joe Mixon projected for exactly 100 more touches than Miles Sanders. What's 100 divided by 17? That's a lot.

Six? More than 2.5. That's a lot. Yeah. Wow. Okay. How about Herb Smith? The Vikings saying his role won't be bigger this season.

And actually, if you look at the last four games without Kyle Rudolph, his numbers were pretty similar to Tyler Conklin's numbers. And Conklin was, was basically uninvolved before those four games. And Smith, look, he played 79% or more of the snaps in three of those last four games without Rudolph. So even if his role isn't bigger,

he's still on the field. 80% of the time. Is this a big news item to you, Dave? Because I know a lot of people like Irv Smith as a sleeper. I think it might have freaked out some people about Irv Smith, but it shouldn't because of what you said. His playing time was already pretty strong and his targets were pretty good in those games without Kyle Rudolph late last season. So I think that it was Mike Zimmer talking up Conklin a little bit more and insinuating that Conklin's going to be on the field a lot

as that second tight end. I still see Irv Smith as that top tight end, and I think Irv Smith is still going to be worth taking as a top 12 fantasy tight end. The thing is, I don't think the targets that we've seen have been it. There's been some games where he scored some touchdowns, and that was great. He had one game last year with more than five targets and you look at those last four games he had one game with more than four targets and that was like with cousins throwing 40 times

a game he had a 13 target share right he's got like he's got 90 targets in 28 career games and like half of the games he had more than half majority of the games he has with more than five He's got 90 targets in 28 career games, and more than half, the majority of the games he has with more than five targets happened two years ago. Yeah, okay. So moving on from Irv Smith, Kyle Long of the Chiefs now. He hurt himself, so hopefully he'll be back for week one,

but that's not a certainty. He has a knee injury. Green Bay tight end Jay Sternberger suspended for two games for violating the substance abuse policy. And then, you know, you mentioned the Jacoby Myers thing. Myers, you know, the report. So Andrew Callahan of the Boston Herald reported that Nikhil Harry's roster spot might be in jeopardy. That's not the first time we've heard that. And he also said, don't be surprised if Jacoby Myers looks like the number one wide receiver during minicamp. And, you know, he was actually really good last year, just didn't score touchdowns.

He barely played the first three games. He didn't play more than 11% of the snaps. Then after that, his last 11 games, he had 58 catches and 722 yards on 80 targets. That's 84 catches and over a thousand yard pace on 116 targets. He was very good. Should Jacoby Myers be the only Patriots wide receiver we draft? Should he even be the,

should he be go ahead of Aguilar Heath, your read on Patriots wide receivers, if they even matter. I definitely think Myers should be the first Patriots wide receiver drafted. If you want to draft Nelson Aguilar, I don't necessarily have a problem with that. The question becomes, because another report that we got, I think from Ben Volan, was that Mac Jones is not close, like does not look like he is close to ready. So if you're expecting Cam Newton to start a majority of the games this season, and they last year, I've talked about it quite a bit, led the league in the percentage of their passes that went to running backs.

And they just went and spent like $80 million on Hunter Henry and John O'Smith. I don't know how many wide receiver targets there are. Like I like Jacoby Myers and I think he's the best wide receiver on the Patriots. I still haven't projected for 850 yards, even though I have him leading the team in targets. So he, he's the one I would rather draft. I'm not drafting him the first 10 rounds still. He might be good for 10 PPR points when you start him, which I mean, you look at Aguilar, I'm not sure he's quite that good on a week-to-week basis in PPR. I think that maybe you'll see that Myers is the most consistent, but I don't see a lot of upside for him. And as long as Cam's the quarterback,

you have to assume that the Patriots are going to run the ball quite a bit. The strength of their team is certainly going to be with their offensive line and their deep run game. They've got a lot of powerful runners who can, you know, gain some ground. It's not going to be pretty football, but it's going to be an extension of what they did last year. I think they're going to try and throw a little more

after all that they've added in free agency. That would make sense. And then you've got to look at John, who is more of a wide receiver than a tight end, and he would cut into the type of targets that Myers would get and that Aguilar would get. So I agree with Heath. It's a mess.

Not really interested in drafting any wide receiver from New England. John, who's the only one I'm moderately interested in drafting. And Kadarius Toney, Giants rookie wide receiver, first round pick. He has been working with the second team. I know he had kind of an injury,

but it's a crowded spot for him on the team, I guess. Crowded receiving core. And not sure if you guys are interested in Darius Toney, but I'm not. I'm not drafting him in redraft leagues.

Okay, if you have any sharp objections to that, please speak now. Forever hold your peace. Forever? Yeah. We are going to be live on the Fantasy Football Today YouTube channel Tuesday night at 7 p.m. Eastern. That is

youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. Another mock draft. This time it's PPR. Last week we did PPR, but it was super flex. This will not be. This will be a regular flex. And Ben Gretsch is coming on

to join us on Tuesday night. Yeah. Awesome. Very excited. We had a great turnout last Tuesday, so make it even better this time. Hop on in. Watch the draft.

And we've got great visuals of the draft room. So if you watched our Twitch streams last year, we didn't have the same capabilities that we have now on video, but you'll be able to see the picks as they unfold. You'll be able to see the teams when we take a look at individual teams and you'll be able to ask questions. And we had a lot of fun. So Tuesday night, 7 p.m. Eastern, youtube.com slash fantasy football today. By the way, the rest of this week after today,

we're doing the consensus top 24 right now. We're in a few minutes. Sleepers, breakouts, busts the rest of this week, Tuesday through Thursday. All right. Here's a segment called Getting Some Buzz. Here are some players who are getting some buzz. What was that supposed to reference?

Just, you know, just like a generic cheesy segment intro. Would have been better if you pretended to be just a little bit tipsy. Catching a buzz. I'm not so good at that. Or if you were Buzz Lightyear. Hey. These guys may be going to infinity and beyond.

Hey, you shut up. You shut up over there, Heath. That just sounds like the way you talk to me on every podcast. These guys catching a buzz. Yeah, it's true. Wait a minute. Was that you pretending to act inebriated? Yeah. How'd I do? Not good.

It's very foreign to me. Okay. LaVisca Chenault is getting some buzz. Elijah Moore is getting some buzz. TJ Hawkinson is getting some buzz. Trey Sermon is ahead of the curve, according to Jennifer Lee Chan of NBC Sports Bay Area.

And then the Denver Post's Ryan O'Halloran thinks that Javante Williams will be the week one starter for the Broncos. So that's a lot of rookies. That's more Sermon and Javante Williams.

I'm assuming there are more rookie buzz articles that i just didn't know about because that's what happens but also chenault and hawkinson dave who are you buzzing about oh i'm i'm definitely intrigued by elijah moore and what he can offer this jets offense we're talking about a receiver who is probably better suited to begin his career in the slot than outside but but he can line up anywhere. This is an offense that I think is going to be very much predicated on Zach Wilson moving around the pocket and completing a lot of short passes with a couple of deep balls mixed in. Moore is a perfect target for him in that regard. He's good at getting open. He's got good moves. I think that he's got a chance to get you north of 50 catches as a rookie

and if he can crack the starting lineup maybe that number blossoms to like 65 70 catches as a rookie great guy to target with a late pick definitely take him ahead of any of these patriots receivers that we talked about three minutes ago okay heath anything else chanel it's the last time we were excited about taking a jet over a Patriot? I'm sure it's happened. Well, I mean, wide receivers, I think most years. Edelman. Edelman, yeah, it's true.

He was a thing for a long time. No, I think Elijah Moore is the engine. The thing with Elijah Moore is it may come down to james and crowder um if they're able to talk him into saving them even more money under the cap then uh it'll be tough for more to make an immediate impact but doesn't sound like james and crowder wants to take a pay cut on a team that's 26 million dollars under the cap and not competing do you think giovante williams should be drafted ahead of Melvin Gordon? I'm not ready for that yet. I do think the Levisca Chenault one's probably the interesting one for me because we've got a new coaching staff. We've got a new quarterback and a new opportunity for three receivers that

probably aren't that much different. Not that there are a lot different in a lot of different ways, but they, they all have some pretty serious upside in their own way marvin jones dj charke and lavisca chanel they've all had stretches or games where they look like number one wide receivers none of them have proven to be that over even really a full season yet so the chanel thing I was pretty worried when they wanted – it was Tony they wanted, right?

Yes. And then settled for ETN and then talked about playing him at wide receiver because Chenault's kind of a wide receiver and a running back's body and does a lot of the things that it sounds like they want to do with ETN. But he's getting this buzz. They're talking about DJ Chark not playing as big as he is. Maybe Leviska Chenault will just be the number one wide receiver on Jacksonville. this buzz they're talking about dj charke not playing as big as he is maybe levis kishnalt will just be the number one wide receiver on jacksonville last four games of last year he

averaged more than eight targets per game um i'm pretty excited about him he's definitely going to be worthy of a late pick i'm worried that there might be um equal distribution of those targets because you talked about charark and you talked about how there's a lot of decent pass catchers in Jacksonville and Chenault will be chief among them. I'm curious what your projection is for him because I have a hard time seeing him get

too much higher than 50 catches. Like I could see him getting to 55, but I could see Marvin Jones getting to like 70, Chark getting to 65, and jones getting to like 70 chuck getting to 65 and etn getting to like 45 and there's just a pretty spread out distribution among those four guys yeah i mean he had 58 and 14 games last year as a rookie so i don't think it's fair to set our expectation for him below that even though there's marvin jones is there now Even though Marvin Jones is there now, even though ETN is there now.

Yeah, I've got him projected for 71, but still just 750. I think it will depend on how much they use him, if at all, in the running game. I've got 100, and I think this is something I'll probably change the next week. Right now, I have 136 targets for Chark, 106 for Charnalt, 106 for Chenault,

106 for Marvin Jones, and 71 for Etienne. That's a lot for Chark leading the pack there. You know, he was pretty close to his 2019 pace last year. He just didn't play as many games. He wasn't quite as consistent. But his catch rate was, it was,

it wasn't great. Not that it was amazing two years ago, but with Minshew, it was 61%, 60% with Luton, 41.2% with Mike Glennon. So Glennon definitely sank Chark for those few games that they played together. But I think his pace was,

I have it right here. His 17 game pace from 2020 was 136 targets, 82, 10, 70, and 70, or 10, 70, and 7. I don't know why I said 70. It's 2019, though, not 2020. No, that's his 2020-17 game pace. What? Yeah, and it's pretty close to what he did in 2019.

Oh, I don't have anything like that. I got to be honest. What do you have for his 2020-17 game pace? I don't have his 17 game pace. I have his 16 game pace, but it was 114 targets, so there's no way. Either I'm off or... Yeah, he was like 75% of his yards per game.

In 2019, he averaged 67 yards per game. In 2020, he averaged 54 yards per game. In 2020, he averaged 54 yards per game. All right, I'll double-check my math on that. Look, I could easily be wrong about this. Pro football... Yeah, no. Okay, so you can just go to Pro Football Reference, go to his game log.

This is how I do all my 16-game paces, unless there are games I have to subtract then I do the manual math. But 13 games he played, 16-game pace was 65 catches, 869 yards, 6 touchdowns. This is DJ Chark we're talking about, right? On 114 targets.

So, um, that could definitely be me. That's not really as good as he was. It's me. Okay. In 2019, when he had 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns in 15 games on 118 targets.

But I've mentioned, you know what, what's that? I think I figured out why my numbers were what they were. Just give me one second. Give me one second. Okay. But I do think like it's,

it's kind of viewed as a foregone conclusion in most people's minds that DJ Chark is like a better candidate to be a number one wide receiver than Leviska Chenault. Leviska Chenault was drafted about 20 picks higher than DJ Chark was. Chark has reached 14 PPR fantasy points. No, I was listening. You're right.

You're right. What am I supposed to say? Yes, true. Chark has reached 14 PPR fantasy points in six of his last 23 games. So he's been a total dud since the start of 2019. And the thing is about Chark is that, you know, you look at Chenault. Chenault was actually drafted 20 spots higher than Chark. So people think that Chark is this number one receiver,

but it might be Chenault. All right, let's move on. Hold on, hold on. Make it quick because let's go. There were about nine and a half games with Minshew and Luton throwing to Chark. So I'm, I'm azer-stabbing the hell out of this one. I'm taking all the games with Mike Lennon, throwing them out. His 17 game base with Minshew and Luton was 82, 10, 70, and 7. It's such a downgrade from those guys.

He was on pace for a thousand. Are you including his 2019 games with Nick Foles? No. This is strictly 2020 when he was getting a 60% catch rate. I expect his catch rate will go up a little bit with Trevor Lawrence. Dreadful segment. Absolutely dreadful. This was a charke attack.

It did not need to happen. All right. Let's go to our consensus top 24. Okay. Christian McCaffrey's go to our consensus top 24. Okay. Christian McCaffrey's number one. Easy call, right? Yeah. I mean, do we need to justify that? No, we don't.

Easy call. In every format last year, he was at least three and a half points better per game than anyone else. That's non-PPR. Okay. Dalvin Cook is two. Now, this is consensus. This is averaging out the three rankings of Dave, Jamie, and Heath. So if you guys have any big differences,

you holler. Dalvin Cook's been top three per game two straight seasons. He's number two. Alvin Kamara was number two per game in this format behind McCaffrey. And he's had 81 to 83 catches four straight seasons.

He's number three. I have Alvin Kamara at number five because I'm still projecting Taysom Hill to win the starting job. Wow. Okay. And if he did not, if Winston won it? He would be two or three. Okay. Derrick Henry, four.

And in 2020, he was top four per game. He was fourth in PPR. In 2019, he was third. But he's fourth. And then Barkley's fifth. So it's McCaffrey, Cook, Kamara, Henry, Barkley. That's our consensus top 24.

I have Barkley 14th. How did he make it up to five, I wonder? I think he may be second or third in other rankings. But this is the point. I think he may be second or third in other rankings, but, uh, this is the point. Like once you get past, um, well,

it's not, I think it's the point to where there's a lot more change. Cause like I have Aaron Jones in my top five and we haven't talked about him yet. Um, but there I'm, I'm certain, um,

there will be people with Jonathan Taylor in their top five. There's people with Saquon Barkley. And if Barkley was 100%, he'd be in my top five as well. But I don't like the fact, like part of his value was the fact that he was going to dominate running back touches on his own team. If that's not necessarily going to happen

and he's not necessarily 100% and he's on a bad team with a running quarterback, I just don't think I'm going to... I know how great it was in 2018 or 2019 or whatever, but that's a long time ago. It's true. And that was 2018. He was pretty damn good down the stretch of 2019. He was playing hurt. 2020, he played two games. Dave, you obviously have Barkley a lot higher. He comes in at fifth. He's at five for me.

That's on the assumption that he is fine. Right now, the reports suggest that he's not fine. That's something that everybody's going to be watching, especially people who find out that they're picking fourth, sixth seventh in their drafts and they're in that range to possibly draft Barkley the upside is obvious I don't think you have to go into it he's got the type of upside that pretty much everybody but Christian McCaffrey has I don't know if I can

recall the last time there was a top five running back who we were nervous about using because of the coaching staff and I just can't help but feel like the Giants are going to lean on Saquon I know they added all this receiving talent and when we talk about Derek Henry we're going to talk about how Tennessee added Julio Jones so how our defense is going to stop him well the Giants added some nice talent to it wide receiver. And I think that'll help Saquon Barkley out a little bit, certainly in the passing game. So I wonder if we're kind of overreacting to what his situation is right now. And we'll see how he is a month from now when training camp opens for the Giants. And if he's looking good and the reports are positive, and I think he said it, he would

move him back up into his top five. And so I'm just going to keep him there until I hear something from, is he on the pup list to start camp? Is he, I don't even expect him to play in any preseason games. Is it legit that he's not going to be their full-time guy, an 80% snap guy for the first month of the year? Those things might come into play, but I also know that he's unbelievably talented

and he can deliver fantasy points when given the opportunity. I want guys like that on my team. So if I can get somebody like that, if his value depresses a little bit and I get him at seventh overall, eighth overall, or 14th overall, I'm going to party.

That's going to be awesome. Yeah, but if we take the injury argument out, right, because I understand that. Let's say everyone's fully healthy, everyone's full go. I mean, we can literally use the injury argument for everybody that we've said so far, except maybe Alvin Kamara. Okay, but one of them is not 100% right now.

Right, right. But let's just say everyone is fully healthy, okay? And I don't think it's really fair to use the injury argument on Derrick Henry, I guess, if we're nitpicking here. He hasn't really been injured, but I know we're concerned. 400 touches and back-to-back years. Usually we write articles about this. Okay.

Okay. So Barkley, just on a performance level, when you look at every running back who's going to be drafted, basically in football, but especially in the first round. They could have a good offense this year. I mean, they have the pieces. Maybe they make the jump, but he's probably on the worst one by far. You know, you're just projecting offenses.

So, you know, does that mean you got... Well, the Panthers really aren't going to probably have a great offense, but that's never stopped McCaffrey before. And he's going to catch, you'd have to think a lot more passes than Barkley, um, Minnesota, new Orleans,

Tennessee, green Bay, the chargers, the Cowboys, the Browns, the Colts is the quality of offense. Something that should knock Barkley down a few spots if you have any questions, if you're debating,

Barkley or Taylor, Barkley or Jones, is that a tiebreaker? I'm okay overlooking it. Again, if he's going to get 80% or 70% of the running back touches, I can overlook it. If he's 100% and 2018 Saquon Barkley touches, I can overlook it. If he's 100% and 2018 Saquon Barkley again, I can overlook it. But we don't know either of those things right now. Okay.

All right. So Aaron Jones comes in at six and he's top five two straight seasons. This was one that really stood out to me. Like, why are people drafting Jonathan Taylor over Aaron Jones? I definitely think there are good reasons for it, but in our consensus rankings, it's Jones

over Taylor among others. It's all because of me. It is all because of you. You're super high on Jones. Like I said, top five running back, two straight seasons. And they lose Jamal Williams. So, Dave, why aren't you as high?

You still have him seventh. Jamie has Jones 12th overall. Not a running back, overall. And Heath has him fourth overall. So, Dave, you know, hey, show Aaron Jones a little more love. Get him in your top five. That would mean moving him ahead of Barkley and Taylor. Right.

So, I'm a big fan of Taylor. I love the way that he can fit into Indianapolis is offense. And I think he can take, um, a small step forward as a pass catcher, but we're talking about Aaron Jones here who could take a bigger step forward as a pass catcher in green Bay. And I suppose I've got him ranked where he is based on Aaron Rogers still being his quarterback. Maybe I hedge a little bit on that, but the thing that stands out to me is the schedule for green Bay is really, really hard. I graded it as the worst projected strength of schedule among all running

backs this year. So I think he's going to have some tough sledding. I'm worried about AJ Dillon coming in and using his big body to steal some touchdowns away. And we'll see what this offensive line ends up looking like. It should mostly be fine. He's a hell of a talent and he's been top five last two seasons, just like you said. I think that there is room for maybe a little bit of a step back, even though I do think he can catch more passes

than he did last year because Jamal Williams is gone. I think the touchdowns can come down. You want to add anything, Heath? I'll tell you, I'll give you a talking point. If there's one thing that concerns me with Aaron Jones, which is when you're comparing him to a guy like Jonathan Taylor, he is not even close to a workhorse running back. He doesn't often get more than, say, 15 carries in a game. So I guess you're relying on some serious touchdown efficiency there,

but you're not going to see a lot of 20 carry games out of Aaron Jones it pretty much it almost never happens in the regular season yeah but like two years ago we averaged 17.9 touches a game and last year he averaged 17.8 touches a game in both years he finished as a top five running back even better than that per game i think so i don't like alvin cabrera is also not a workhorse running back there will be very few 20 touch games for him true we're past the point of caring and i just think that what jones has done the past two seasons especially with williams gone because if dylan takes some short yardage work which i don't know that he will jones has been pretty great at it um he scored 150 touchdowns

last two years i jones i expect his catches to go up i don't have let me check my notes i did not have him at 150 i gotta know he has 30 30 total touchdowns, which is pretty great. One per game. That's funny. And remember, 2018, he was awesome as well. He was just sharing even more. Yeah. He averaged 5.5 yards per carry, three out of his four seasons in the NFL.

For life, man. Why PC for life, as Adam Azer would say. All right, so he's six in our consensus we got travis kelsey coming in at number seven he has been a top he's been the number one tight end four or five straight years he's been a top 12 wide receiver four straight seasons so you're getting him at tight end uh seventh eckler at eight Zeke nine Taylor 10. So we'll stop there and we'll go Kelsey at seven Eckler, eight Ezekiel Elliott, nine Jonathan Taylor,

10 Dave thoughts here at, and Kelsey being ahead of those guys. And just this group in general, Kelsey Eckler, Zeke Taylor, seven through 10. I have no problem. If a fantasy manager wants to take Kelsey ahead of those running backs because they want to take the safe play.

And they want to get the tight end who plays like a top 12 wide receiver and you start them at your tight end spot. And maybe you just don't buy back into Zeke after what happened last year or Eckler, whatever. Go ahead and take Kelsey. I can't fault anybody for doing that. The track record is too good. But I know that I can find a comparable tight end to Kelsey if I'm at this point in round one, seventh overall, when I'm back up on round two.

So if I have to have a tight end, if I got to have a top three tight end, I'm sure that one of Waller or Kittle will be there for me. It's a drop down from Kelsey, but it's not that steep of a drop. And I know that I can land a running back, especially in PPR. I think Eckler or Taylor would be my favorite. Eckler close behind him. Those guys have a chance to get just huge numbers this year. Certainly in the past game for Eckler. So you're saying you would not take Kelsey ahead of?

I would not. I would not. I would not. I would take the running backs ahead of Kelsey and cross my fingers that either a great tight end or a very good running back will make it back to me in round two. You know, it's an interesting way of framing it, just saying that you can get Waller or Kittle in round two. Yeah. Heath, anything to add here?

Kelsey, you do have Kelsey ahead of all of these guys? Yeah, I think I have Kelsey sixth. I would just dispute that Waller, and maybe Kittle will be, but I don't view Waller or Kittle as really comparable tight ends to Kelsey. I think he was three fantasy points a game better than Darren Waller last year. More than that. I said that it was a drop, but not a steep drop compared to if you punt on tight end and you're drafting Robert Tunyon in round 11. For sure.

Right. But I guess, and maybe it is. If you want to have the tight end advantage, I'm sorry to cut you off. If you want to have the tight end advantage in your lineup, you can still do it in round two. It's just not going to be as great as what it would be in round one. And that's if Kelsey matches what he did in 2020. mean he but he's been the best for five straight years five straight years right um i guess what you're talking about is the difference between kelsey and kittle or waller and the difference between taylor or zeke and probably chubb or mixon

yeah or not naji harris some right or Mixon. Yeah, or Najee Harris. Right. Or Najee Harris. Yeah, whichever one of those guys you like better. Yeah. So you're talking about the mid-second round pick, whether you're going Kelsey in round one, running back in round two,

or running back in round one and Waller in round two. The question is, do you have a chance to get George Kittle in round three or Waller in round two. The question is, do you have a chance to get George Kittle in round three or Waller in round three? ADP would say no. They're going to the top. No, actually, I'm sorry.

ADP would say yes. Kittle's going 29th or 30th. So you have a chance. In a 10 team, you do. No, because you're talking about the middle of... If you have the seventh overall pick we are what 31st yeah in round three actually have a decent chance to get george kittle there

if you want him uh so that's something to keep in mind doesn't seem like you have a great chance of getting waller who's 23rd overall in adp but kittle's 30 30-31st. So, I mean, that's kind of an interesting risk to take there. But just not even thinking about the other stuff, you know, Kelsey, I don't think we have strong objections to him going this high. He's no lower than 9th in the rankings. Any strong objections or

strong feelings about the three running backs in this range? Eckler, Zeke, Taylor. Is the order right? are any of them second round picks for you heath the order's right the only thing is like this is the point after kelsey where i'm taking the top two or three wide receivers in ppr so it's not necessarily like i i think i have it exactly eckler elliot tay Taylor. I may have Joe Mixon mixed in there somewhere. But I do, in full PPR, have Devontae Adams, Tyreek Hill,

and DeAndre Hopkins ahead of that group. I've got Taylor at the top of the group. Younger running back, good running team, great offensive line. No question about who's going to get short yardage goal line carries. I think there's an outside shot of him getting to 2000 total yards. I really think he's that good. And I think double digit touchdowns is absolutely going to happen. I have Zeke ahead of Eckler,

even in PPR, because I'm worried about the touchdown production for Eckler. I'm positive that there's going to be a second running back in play. Eckler has never really been a short yardage goal line guy. He had one goal line carry last year and it was a mess. And I expect Ezekiel Elliott to bounce back a little bit. So we'll see what training camp says, and we'll see if Tony Pollard

ends up taking a decent chunk of work with the first team offense. And if that happens, then putting Eckler ahead of Zeke, especially in PPR, easy to do. But for now, that's how I have it. I've got Taylor, Zeke, Eckler, Kelsey. If you want to be optimistic about the touchdowns for

Eckler, there are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic as Dave just outlined. The first four games of 2019 when Melvin Gordon wasn't playing, he had six touchdowns. He had three rushing and three receiving touchdowns. Last year did not hold up because it was Kalen Balazs at the goal line, things like that.

But there was that stretch. Yeah, different coaching staff. Okay, and so this is a good transition into 11 and 12, which is Devontae Adams and Tyreek Hill. And by the way, here's where Tyreek Hill, who's 12th, Adams is 11th,

Tyreek Hill is 12th. I don't think Adams needs much justification as wide receiver one right now. This is assuming Aaron Rodgers is with the Packers. Hill, this is where he's finished per game in PPR in his last four seasons. 8th, 5th, 11th, and 2nd. He finished 2nd last year with 17 total touchdowns, 15 receiving, 2 rushing. I will question, should he actually be the number two PPR wide receiver? He's not a high catch guy. And like I said,

eighth, fifth, eleventh, and second in full PPR. Not disagreeing, but questioning it, Heath. Do you think Tyreek Hill should be number two? You know, if I think you could like there's could possibly be somebody else that jumps up and takes that from him. I just don't know

which one it would be. Like Stefan Diggs basically scored the same number of fantasy points in his best season ever in one more game than what Tyreek Hill played last year. And I do think over the last couple of years, we've seen a little transition to more targets per game. I would anticipate that's going to continue with Sammy Watkins no longer on the roster. So yeah, like I don't, I don't feel real strong about Tyree kill is the number two,

but I feel less convinced about the guys behind him. Dave. And I don't like, he's not a high catch guy, but he's not really a low catch guy anymore either. Dave, when Heath already said once Kelsey comes

off the board, he's going with those wide receivers after that. Same. Okay, so you would take the wide receivers over Taylor? I've got them ahead of Chubb, Akers, and Najee for now. Okay, because you guys have Kelsey in different spots. But when do you pull the trigger on your first wide receiver? Is it after Zeke?

I will go, yes. I will go with a wide receiver, and it's either going to be Adams or Hill, and it depends on the format. I will go with them when there isn't a running back that I'm convinced can have a stellar season. And I like to do it when it's late in round one because I can go and get a running back in early round two that'll still be there. So what you want to do is let's

say you're up at 11 and both wide receivers are there. If you're indifferent to Adams and Hill and you think that the guy picking in the 12 spot, assuming 12 team league, is not going to go receiver receiver, you can wait on making the receiver decision and take your favorite running back similarly if you're indifferent to chubb versus acres versus naji versus antonio gibson whoever's left and mix in his next yeah absolutely you take the receiver that you like better and then you come back in round two and you take the running back or maybe if you want to do the zero RB thing, you draft your favorite receiver. And then maybe the team in 12 takes two running backs and you go, okay,

cool. I'll take two of the best receivers in football and just load up Adams and Tyreek. I wish I knew the draft that I did that. And I did that in a mock draft. I took both of them. I don't. Do you remember what you're running back?

Did you, did you feel the pressure to take a running back in round three? Probably. Oh, God, yeah. And you probably didn't love what was left. I'll just take a look at one team and see if this was the draft, but I can't really remember. Oh, yes.

Sweet. This was it. Okay. You nailed it. Carson and Dobbins. This was a PPR draft. You got Dobbins in round four? Yeah.

Carson, Dobbins, Adams, Hill, Lamar, Jackson. How did the rest of my team turn out so crappy? If it's Dobbins in three and Carson in four, I'm not going to fight you on that at all. If you've got two receivers that are just locked in, like Adams and Hill figure to be all season long. Yeah, I guess you could do worse than that. Okay.

You definitely could. We could take a break here. When we come back, I tease this at the beginning of the show. What makes more sense? All right, because through one round, we've got nine running backs, a tight end, and two wide receivers. What makes more sense? Taking the 10th best running back or the third best wide receiver?

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That is the letter I. FantasyFootball at CBSi.com. So I won't go through all the numbers, guys, but what I did last night was I looked at running back eight versus wide receiver three each of the last five years. And I did it in two ways. I did it, the players that finished

as running back eight and wide receiver three, and the players who were drafted as running back eight and wide receiver three. If you look at just who finished wide receiver three versus running back eight, in PPR leagues, wide receiver three. If you look at just who finished wide receiver three versus running back eight, in PPR leagues, wide receiver three crushes running back eight. And that's basically where we're at.

We're actually now in ADP into the second round, or sorry, in our consensus rankings, we're actually going to get to running back 10 with our next pick, and then 11, and then Hopkins, wide receiver three. So 11 wide receivers off the board before wide receiver three.

What I'm saying is, wide receiver three, 54 points on average better in PPR than running back eight in end of season standings over the last five years. Not even close. It's more than three per game.

It's a landslide. And that eliminates, like that doesn't even, position scarcity doesn't even matter at that point. If I'm telling you that wide receiver three is going to be 54 points better than running back eight. But when I looked at ADP and the players who were drafted, running backs eight through 10,

compared to wide receivers three through five in average draft position um over the last five years in ppr is that enough like prepositional phrases for you um yeah i'm getting i'm getting ready for the bloodbath statement here really very even oh yeah i was surprised just in terms of results no clear event now last last year, it was the wide receivers were better. Last year, it was Josh Jacobs, Austin Eckler, Miles Sanders

versus Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill, and DeAndre Hopkins. And you take those wide receivers, they did better than the running backs. But the previous four years, I would give a slight edge to the running backs. So I thought that was pretty interesting.

Well, I mean, 2019, the best player out of the group was Michael Thomas by a mile. That is true, but also you had Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, and Todd Gurley that year. And Chubb was RB8, Cook was

RB6, and Gurley was RB14, whereas Juju was one of the three wide receivers, and he didn't even finish in the top 50. But you did get wide receiver one, Michael Thomas, and you got wide receiver three. Who was that, Julio Jones or something like that?

Yeah, Julio Jones. I don't know. You can look at the research yourself. There were how many players in this group? Three wide receivers receivers three running backs each year reached 250 ppr fantasy points five running backs seven wide receivers so slight edge to the receivers how many finished outside the top 50 two running backs and three wide receivers in fact no running backs in the last four years who were drafted eight through ten

finished outside the top 50 and that's always always injury, by the way. That's never just them sucking. That's always guys getting hurt. So I thought that was interesting. But when you just compare who finishes at number three at wide receiver to who finishes at number eight at running back, in PPR leagues, it is not even close. It is always the wide receiver.

So I guess the question I had was just, does it make sense to take Joe Mixon and Cam Akers and Nick Chubb ahead of Hopkins and Diggs? It appears to me that knowing that wide receiver three, four, and five, where they finish, are going to be so much better than running back eight, nine, and ten that you're drafting those wide receivers there, and if they just finish where you're drafting them to, they're going to crush. You're drafting the running backs, and they need to exceed expectations to be better than the wide receivers you have available there. If the running backs and the wide receivers both finish where you're drafting them,

you're going to wish you drafted the wide receiver. Yeah. Yeah. Right. Sure. So I think the wide receiver is the safer play. Makes perfect sense. And the more upside play.

But also scores a lot more points. And this is, by the way, exclusive to full PPR. It's a different story in non-in-house. For sure. Yes. And I've got like Mixon, I think. to full PPR. It's a different story in non-in-house. For sure, yes. And I've got Mixon, I think. I have three wide receivers in the first round, so ahead

of the Eckler, Elliott, Taylor group, which is, I think, running back seven-ish for me. But then once we get past Mixon, for me, it's Diggs, Keenan Allen, A.J. Brown, Calvin Ridley. My next four are wide receivers, and eightley. My next four are wide receivers.

And like eight of my next ten picks are wide receivers. Adam, what do you think the comparison's like to wide receiver one versus running back five? So maybe taking what you're doing, this experiment, and ratcheting it up to what you would see in the middle of the first round or going to round three and what wide receiver 10 would look like versus running back 16 because i bet the wide receiver is going to win every time i think the wide receiver position is just those guys stay healthier they catch more passes obviously that helps them in ppr i think i think it's kind of taken as gospel and fantasy that wide receivers are safer than

running backs but i think it's going to be that way across the board no matter where you pick to compare wide receiver x versus running back x you know unless you do something that that doesn't make sense like running back five versus wide receiver 25. And I didn't just pick eight through 10 and three through five at random. I mean, I think that's... No, because that's like this is the spot where they're going to go in the draft. But I think you could do that with almost any spot in the draft, and I think you'll see the

wide receiver win more often than not. I think that's instructive in that it's not that we're comparing wide receiver one through three to running back one through three. If we were, this wouldn't be the case. And that's why the running backs are drafted first. But the fact that now, if we compare them anywhere in the first three rounds,

the wide receiver is always better, suggests to me that maybe because those top five running backs are so much better than the top five wide receivers we've just extended that into the first three rounds chasing that running back right that's the point you're trying to find a running you're buying a ticket for a running back that you hope has top five upside and when you do that with a wide receiver it's probably a safer ticket but then in the quest for finding running backs you're you're going to be left short certainly compared to everybody else in the league but if it's a pretty good advantage if you can especially late in the first round if you can

just start your draft with a pair of guys who are pretty likely to score 280 to 300 fantasy points. That's a good start to a team. Of course it is. There's 30 points a game. Now let's figure the rest out. Yeah, and Dave, I just did a quick look. Running back five versus wide receiver one. Wide receiver one does win. I think each of the last five years,

I was obviously doing this on the air. So your point is taken there. I think the next step in this research would be to see who finishes, you know, as wide receiver three. Where does wide receiver three, four, five usually get drafted? Are these guys who are drafted in the top ten at wide receiver? Or are these guys you can get in rounds four or five, you know?

So it's one thing to have wide receiver three at the end of the year, but where does that guy get drafted? Because we know that at running back, there's a big drop-off after the first two rounds in terms of production. Is it the same case for wide receivers? I'll have to look into that. But I did think that was, you know,

that's interesting stuff and a good conversation there. And make no mistake about it, if you do zero RB and you find a, even one great running back within on draft day or in the first few weeks of the season, you're golden. Like that's the mission of zero RB is to just, you're, you're looking and churning for running backs. And once you find the James Robinson of the 2021 class, you're good to go. Your team's going to crush it. Tell that to 2019 though, because that guy never showed up. 2019 0RB was awful.

And there aren't a lot of those guys every year. I mean, you could probably piecemeal, you know, a running back for three weeks here, a different running back for four weeks there. But you got to do the work to get that running back. You got to hope that it's the right guy. A lot of people just don't want to deal with that for the same reason why a lot of people don't want to wait on tight end now.

People want to get those stud tight ends so they just don't have to sweat it. They can get their stud, lock them into the lineup, have an advantage over the rest of their league. Yeah, I think five of the top 12 and 10 of the top 20 last year running backs were outside of the first four rounds. Yeah, it was a really bad year for running backs. A lot of injuries, right. And 2019 was a really bad year for wide receivers. You should never make too much of what happened last year. That's a big way to get burned.

Okay, so we haven't really got into the consensus rankings. I did mention a little bit. But let's take a look at the first five picks of round two. First, I keep acting like this is ADP. These are consensus rankings. So it's 13, 14, 15, 16, 17. It's Mixon, Akers, Hopkinskins chubb and digs mixin acres hopkins chubb and digs who by the way digs got off to a little bit of a slow start i think he played 19

games and based on his last 12 including the the postseason, obviously. Right? Yeah. Yeah, he played three postseason games. His last 12 games, including the postseason, he was on pace for almost 1,657 yards and 132 catches. And that was while facing New England twice, Arizona, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Denver, Miami, the Colts, the Ravens, the Chiefs. He had such tough competition

and he was on pace for over 1600 yards. He was amazing after a little bit of a slow start, which still included a few big weeks. But OK, I'm sorry. Mixon, Akers, Hopkins, Chubb, Diggs, Heath. What do you think about that? 13 through 17 in the consensus rankings? Yeah, it's I like the wide receivers a lot here. Hopkins I've got as a first-round pick, and I think I have Diggs at 15. Why is Hopkins ahead of Diggs? He's ahead in the consensus.

He's ahead for you, Heath. Is he ahead for you, Dave? No. Okay, Heath, why Hopkins over Diggs? It's what Hopkins has done for a career versus what Diggs did last year. Okay. It's really just as simple as that. When I'm going through my projections process, it relies on more data than just 2020.

And Hopkins has been better than Diggs for pretty much their entire careers before last year. Don't get me wrong. I love DeAndre Hopkins. He's right behind Stephon Diggs for pretty much their entire careers before last year. Don't get me wrong. I love DeAndre Hopkins. He's right behind Stephon Diggs in my receiver rankings. I think both are top 20 overall picks. But Buffalo did nothing to improve their run game. It tells me that they're going, oh, I'm sorry, I'm sorry. They added Matt Breida.

Now, I think the offense is going to flow through Josh Allen. I think it's going to mean a lot for Stephon Diggs. I don't think the arrival of Emmanuel Sanders is going to do anything to hurt Diggs. The rise of Gabriel Davis, maybe it costs a touchdown or three along the course of the season. You look at what they did in Arizona. For what it's worth, they brought in A.J. Green. They drafted Rondell Moore. I think Moore is going to be a great fit in that offense.

I still think that DeAndre Hopkins is going to be that red zone monster for them, just as I was saying last year. And I still think he's going to dominate targets for them. But I think Diggs kind of proved last year in the way that that Buffalo offense evolved. I think that Josh Allen's the better passer than Kyler Murray. And I think Diggs is going to see more targets than DeAndre Hopkins will. Hopkins and Diggs. Diggs did lead the NFL in targets. I think Hopkinsiggs is going to see more targets than DeAndre Hopkins will. Hopkins and Diggs. Diggs did lead the NFL in targets.

I think Hopkins might have been second. Yeah, he must have been. He had 160 targets. They had great years last year and they did that without a lot of touchdowns. So maybe the catches go down, but hopefully the touchdowns can come up a little bit. So Mixon, Akers, Hopkins, Chubb, Diggs.

Then we get Najee Harris, DeAndre Swift, Calvin Ridley. Underrated. You should be higher than 20th, people. Harris. Yeah, I've got him 18th. I agree. No, higher. Let's go.

Harris, Swift, Ridley, A.J. Brown. That's our next four. Najee Harris, DeAndre Swift, Ridley, A.J. Brown. That's our next four. Najee Harris, DeAndre Swift, Ridley, A.J. Brown. What are we thinking? Still taking Ridley and A.J. Brown and one wide receiver we haven't talked about before I take Akers or Swift

or Chubbs or Najee Harris. And I'm going the other way. I love the running backs. I'm trying to find that running back with the top five potential. I think Akers has it. I think Najee has it too. I just, I keep coming around on Najee Harris.

Just when I think about how that offense is going to look, what I think Harris is capable of doing, I think he can contribute in the passing game. I'm taking my shot on running backs early because I think he can contribute in the passing game. I'm taking my shot on running backs early because I think I can find wide receivers who can give me, they're not going to give me the same type of numbers that Ridley or A.J. Brown would theoretically give me, but there'll be a couple of points behind them on a week-to-week basis, I would think. So I'm trying to lock up some running backs before that position dies the receiver

position may not really go through a a death now until around eight nine ten i think you can find startable receivers well into round seven and eight well i mean that's always the case yeah yeah but you can't do that with running backs. You can find running backs that you could start. You could start James Conner and James Robinson, but I don't think they're going to give you consistency. I think they'd be lucky to give you consistency on a week-to-week basis. I think some receivers, especially in PPR, that you can find that late can.

I know. It just comes back to the question of, well, you said you think these guys have top-five potential, so you're not just doing this for the question of, well, you said, I mean, you said you think these guys have top five potential. So you're not just settling. You're not just doing this for the sake of position scarcity. You're also looking at potential home runs here. So if you could have your pick between a top five running back or top five receiver in fantasy, if it was guaranteed, I think you would take the running back. Absolutely.

It's just how many points of expectation are you willing to sacrifice for that chance that's the question isn't it because with this group specifically like we're now in the running back 15 range probably and we're still in wide receiver five six right so you're probably talking about 75 points i I would guess, on average, difference between the expectation for these players. That's a pretty big difference. It is a big difference, yes. The second part of the equation, though, Heath, is, hey, I know that I can get, according to ADP, Michael Thomas and Keenan Allen, 31st and 32nd overall.

So I guess I'll just go with the running back run here. And that's the other thing is, I think in a PPR league where you only start two wide receivers, that makes a lot of sense. Most of the leagues I'm in, in all of our mock drafts anymore, it's two running backs and three wide receivers. And a flex. And a flex, which in PPR should probably be a receiver.

All right, so let's finish out the top 24. I'll recap 13 through 21. Mixon, Akers, Hopkins, Chubb, Diggs, Najee Harris, Swift, Ridley, A.J. Brown. Last three picks, or last three spots in the rankings, Justin Jefferson, Antonio Gibson, and Darren Waller. Jefferson, Gibson, Waller. Bingo? We have a bingo? I got a bingo, Adam.

Okay. All the 24 names that you said in the consensus top 24 are in my top 24. Ooh, cool. I kind of got the feeling that was the case. I think that Shraggy B maybe did a consensus of Dave and Jamie's rankings. No.

Otherwise, Aaron Jones would have been so high. Jamie's got McLaurin. I think he's got McLaurin in his top five or something like that. A fourth of my top 24 didn't make the list. A fourth? I want to know those names. I've got Keenan Allen at number 16 okay i've got michael thomas at 21 yes alan robinson at 22 terry mcclure and at 23 not quite a fourth a sixth

and they're 21 most of them are 21 through 23 um so somebody yeah Somebody hates Keenan Allen. Yeah, Keenan Allen not being in the top 32. Whoa! 32. 32. It's pretty low. Jamie has him at 32. Sorry, 30 as well. Yeah, that's interesting. What did I say last show or two shows ago?

He's never been outside the top 12 per game or last four years. He's been top eight three of the last four years per game in PPR at wide receiver. So I have Antonio Gibson at 32. So I guess that's, that's fair. I did think it was, he really seems to be sort of solidified. People love Antonio Gibson,

I feel. And he's 23rd in the consensus rankings. Waller's 24th. Yeah. I guess, Heath, you want to comment on that? Gibson? No, that's one of those situations that we've got to do a lot of projecting and guessing

because like Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't throw to his running backs near as much as alex smith does obviously um jd mckissick caught like 110 passes or something last year playing the same position and they just added curtis samuel who kind of plays the same position and they've talked about wanting to throw the ball more downfield, and then they've also talked about wanting to throw it more to Antonio Gibson. So maybe he's going to line up out wide and run fly routes. But that

one's difficult for me to project. Yeah, but what about as a running back? I think as a running back, he needs a boost in receiving game production to be drafted over all these wide receivers in a PPR league. Okay.

Like, I don't think that offense is going to be good enough for him to have even a Josh Jacobs-type role last year and be, he's got some touchdown regression coming himself. He's not going to score at the same rate that he did last year. Okay. Any final thoughts?

Just on Keenan Allen, I think he's going to be very good i just don't know if he can be top five good and i think he might struggle a little bit to be top 10 good the second half of the schedule for for the chargers isn't great it's a it's a very good schedule early on so it wouldn't surprise me if keenan allen got off to a great start but i i think he could struggle a little bit there's also also the question about Herbert having a sophomore slump. Could that hurt a little bit? Nine of 13 games with Herbert, Keenan had at least 14 PPR points. That's pretty good. I think he'll be consistent enough to be like a borderline wide receiver one in terms of production. You'll start him as a wide receiver one. But when the schedule gets rough a little bit later on, I wonder if that'll hurt Keenan Allen.

And I wonder if any of the other receivers that they added could take away just enough work. And I wonder if Austin Eckler being healthy for 16 receivers that they added that can't be a huge, they're going to have, they're going to have to do something there because they've, they've gotten by with Keenan Allen and the air yards of Mike Williams, which are basically like ghost numbers.

He has like one great game every six weeks or something like that. I think Eckler could hurt a little bit, but I feel like they're going to try and establish some downfield threats. I don't know if there's going to be anybody consistent. That's fine. You saw it last year with Guyton and Tyron Johnson. They would have a deep ball. Yeah, that's fine. That could happen.

And still, Keenan Allen has his job. I'm not saying Keenan Allen is going to be terrible by any stretch. I've got him ranked fairly high. I just don't have him ranked as high as he does. Or as usual, Adam. From week two through 15, which is when he played with Herbert healthy, Keenan Allen was number five wide receiver and that included one game that he only

played like 20% of the snaps because he left early. What was his point? Is that points per game? He was a number? He was just under 20 fantasy points per game. Yeah, that's good. A lot of catches. I'm sorry, 18.4, just under 19. That's still really, really good.

Heath, let's make a Justin Jefferson Allen Robinson bet. A Justin Jefferson Allen Robinson bet. I'm going to tell you, Justin Jefferson-Alan Robinson bet. A Justin Jefferson-Alan Robinson bet. I'm going to tell you, Justin Jefferson is going to outscore Alan Robinson by at least 50 points this year. Okay. That's it.

And if he doesn't, you're going to buy me a $150 steak? Is that what the deal is? And then you're going to cook it and give it to me. Okay. Yeah, I don't know. Right. Yeah, I don't know. We'll figure something out. But Jefferson, you have Jefferson 25th in your overall rankings.

That's all positions. And you have Robinson 22nd. So just two spots apart in wide receiver rankings. He did outscore him by eight points last year. Jefferson did? Yeah. Maybe he'll be five times better. Yeah, I would say so. Six times better.

All right, we'll talk to you all on tomorrow's show with some sleepers. Get ready for that. And we'll talk to you Tuesday night, 7 p.m. Eastern, YouTube.com slash Fantasy Football Today. Live mock draft with Ben Gretsch. Have a good day, everybody. Talk to you Tuesday.