Fantasy Football Today - Dalvin Cook Released; Dave's Bold Predictions (06/08 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 8, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Minnesota has released Dalvin Cook and we are here to discuss every angle of it. Is Alexander Mattison the next Fantasy star or the next Mike Davis? Where do we want to see Cook end up? ... News and notes (16:00) as DeAndre Hopkins will visit the Titans and Deshaun Watson talks about playing last season after a long layoff ... Getting into Dave's bold predictions on Aaron Jones (19:24), Calvin Ridley (25:30) and a couple of tight ends that will have surprisingly good seasons (35:15) ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. We have big breaking news and bold predictions today on Fantasy Football Today. Welcome to the Thursday edition. Adam Azer, Dave Richard, and Jamie Isenberg. Poor Dave. So excited to give his bold predictions, and then he gets bumped, I guess, a little bit for Dalvin Cook, who is being released by the Minnesota Vikings. I'm sorry, Dave.

Oh, no. It's all good. I suck at bold predictions. Well, we'll get to those. I don't know. I suck at bold predictions. Well, uh, we'll get to that. I don't know if I suck at getting them right or wrong. I just suck at coming up with things that make people go, wow, that's bold. Yeah. Something I'm working on for this year. You'll let me know if I've gotten anything bold in this round of bold predictions. Yeah. One of the, one of the, uh, bold predictions Dave is going to talk about today. Christian McCaffrey will be RB3 this year. Christian McCaffrey will be RB...

No. Justin Tucker will be kicker. He'll be a top three kicker. Bold. Alright, let's get to the big news here. The Vikings are releasing Dalvin Cook. They will save $9 million in cap space in his last four seasons per game.

Dalvin Cook has been RB3, 2, 8, and 11 in non-PPR, and per game he's been RB2, 3, 11, and 14 per game in PPR. Meanwhile, Alexander Madison has scored 21.4 or more PPR fantasy points in four of the last six games that Dalvin Cook has missed, which is 2020 and 2021. Cook did not miss any games in 2022. Okay, Jamie, initial reaction. Let's talk about, well, you know what, let's, let's talk about Dalvin Cook and, and basically what he's meant to fantasy managers for the last four years. I mean, what an incredible fantasy career he's had. And hopefully we'll still have, you know,

I mean, he's not retiring and, you know, hopefully he finds a destination that will still continue to allow him to play at a high level and give him the touches that he needs to be successful for fantasy managers. You know, I'm not sure that there's an ideal situation out there that's perfect. You know, Miami seems to be the most logical destination and we'll see if that happens. But look, he's been he's been great. You had the unfortunate beginning of the ACL tear and then what happened in his comeback from that, just compensating with some hamstring injuries. But really since then, despite some shoulder concerns, he's been great. Per game basis, he's been amazing. Obviously, you look at the numbers here, most scrimmage yards the last four seasons.

So he's at that age where you've got to be concerned. He's at a juncture of his career where clearly the team that has fostered that career is now moving on from him. But I still think that if he ends up in the right spot, he can give you maybe one more year of quality production, enough that he could still be maybe a low-end starter. Most likely, though, we'll end up in that flex conversation. And Dave, sorry, Jamie, you're not Dave. Jamie was referencing a graphic we had up,

the most scrimmage yards among running backs over the last four seasons. He was second. Dalvin Cook was second behind Derrick Henry. All right, let's turn our attention, Dave, to Alexander Madison. You know, he has been so good when Dalvin Cook has been out. He's been one of the, you know, favorite handcuffs every year because we know what he can do. He's been called the three, the, you know, favorite handcuffs every year because we know what he can do. He's been called the three down back. Uh, what do you think, where are you going to rank

Alexander Madison as of right now? I'm getting excited. This is like 48 hours after we talked on the podcast about not being too excited about Alexander Madison. And now I'm just, I'm getting excited about Alexander Madison kind of falling into the bear trap that I didn't want to fall into. I've got him as RB 15 third round pick toward the end of round three, but in that type of range and it's based on volume. I don't think he's an explosive running back. I don't see him having a ton of huge runs. Um, he can avoid tackles and break tackles like the best of them and he can handle short

yardage touchdowns. I projected him on just a minimal amount of work, less work than what Dalvin Cook got last year, and I still came out to 10 touchdowns on him. I think that he could end up being very, very good. This is an offense that does like to throw a lot, and yet last year when they did, Dalvin Cook averaged almost 18 touches per game. I think almost all of that is going to fall into Madison's lap

as long as he doesn't stink. And as long as he doesn't stink, fantasy managers are going to call him pretty close to a must-start fantasy running back. And if he does stink, they'll call him Alexander Battison. Yes. Thank you. Jamie, where are you going to rank Alexander Battison? Dave has him 15th.

He'll be around RB15. How about you? He'll be a little bit lower. I think he is a round four pick. I think you look at those receivers that should be available to you in round three, especially when the quarterbacks start to come off the board. He's going to be one of those guys that's at the start of the dead zone. We'll probably get a little bit frustrated with him at some point during the season, like we were with Dalvin Cook last year.

You know, so this is definitely an offense that has trended from featuring its run game to featuring its passing game with the coaching change that we saw last year. And we'll find out, you know, if Madison can handle that role and if he's going to be allowed to get that role. You know, are they going to just use him like they used Dalvin Cook or are they going to mix and match the running backs with the guys they have behind them?

I think they got a steal in the seventh round with Dwayne McBride I think he's going to be very successful hopefully as a number two guy if he's able to you know outperform Ty Chandler and Nguyen and the guys that they have there but I think that's going to be the case so he's going to be the one that I'm going to probably be the most excited about as we get closer to training camp but yeah I mean look Madison has been awesome in that role when he's gotten it. Again, most of it has come pre-Kevin O'Connell. So we'll see what happens, you know, with the coaching change from a year ago, now featuring Madison.

But clearly they've made it clear that this is the guy they're going to go all in. I just don't want to overvalue him. And I just fear that that's going to be the case if he's going to round three. Right. Man, I got to tell you, Alexander Madison, by any metric, has been one of the worst running backs in football, I'd say,

over the last two years. He is doing almost nothing. His longest run last year was 15 yards on 74 carries. The year before that, he had two carries of more than 20 yards on 134 carries. Yards per carry has been terrible basically the last two seasons. But one thing I have noticed is that he does better when he gets a lot of work. So I'm wondering if he's really better than those metrics. How easy is it for a guy to get five carries a game, then six, then two, then something like that, and have good numbers?

It might just be that he needs to get into a rhythm. We didn't see any of that last year, so I don't know, but we did see it in 2021, and he was better in those games than he was overall for the full season. So he's only 25 years old, or he's going to be 25 years old in June, and maybe he's better than those numbers. And if he is, then this was a guy that played like a first rounder. Dave went when cook was out, but I can't help, but make the Mike Davis, miles Gaskin comparisons.

Cause they were fourth round picks based on average draft position in 2021. And neither of them was even a top 40 running back per game. So I, you, those guys have the same kind of track record that Madison has. I, you know, I,

I would say this, I don't think does. And Gaskin Gaskin was a projection more than anything else. I was very high on him that year. I didn't think that he would let us down. I didn't think there was anybody else in the dolphins run game that would take work away from him. And he just blew it.

He was awesome in the preseason. He just blew it in the was awesome in the preseason. He just blew it in the regular season. But they both did, right? So Mike Davis going into that year, remember, he filled in for McCaffrey the year before. Yeah, I remember being out on Davis, but in on Gaskin. Okay, he was bad on a per carry basis, 3.9 yards per carry, which is like Madison. But overall, he was okay. He was better early in the year.

Gaskin played 10 games in 2020, and he scored 13 or more PPR fantasy points in eight of them. So he was very productive for fantasy. And I think neither, this is important, neither of them went into the year with obvious competition, but both of them lost their jobs, basically, to Savan Ahmed, and I think Duke Johnson came in, to Cordero Patterson in Atlanta.

It's like we didn't see it coming, but they both were so bad that they lost their job. Or at least their grip on the job. You're right. I don't know. What do you think about those comparisons? I think Madison is a more, I don't know if he's more physical than Mike Davis was,

but I think even with his poor efficiency, he's probably at least as efficient, maybe better as a tackle breaker than Mike Davis was, certainly the year that Davis was in Atlanta. And I believe he's younger than Davis was when Davis was in Atlanta. And I don't remember how old Gaskin was. Well, Gaskin was young. Davis was almost 30. It was easy to get away from him.

I think the thing that you look at is, are they going to feature Madison the way that they featured Dalvin cook? And I just don't think that's the case. You know, I think that they must feel like their group is good enough that if Madison does fail. And the thing I think that we sort of overlook a little bit with Madison is almost every time he's had success,

it's been against some of the worst run defenses in the league when he's gotten those chances. You know, it was Detroit when Detroit was Detroit a couple of times. It was Seattle that one time when Seattle was terrible. It's almost as if he's just fallen into these great situations. And so if the metrics aren't good and it's just been a lot of production, is he going to a lot of volume? Excuse me. Is he going to get that volume to be productive? And that's the scary part about it because is he going to be successful against some tough matchups?

Now, granted, he's not going to be a prolific receiver. We haven't seen that from him, so that's something he has to prove. We have seen that from him. In small sample sizes. Well, everything is small sample sizes. Whenever Cook is out. Yeah, I guess that's fair. Whenever Cook is out.

But are they going to trust him enough in that role and give him those opportunities? So that's my concern. Again, I think you've got to love the scenario because he's proven to be successful when he's gotten those chances. But there are some things about him that you have to be worried about. And is this more of a financial thing or is this more of a talent thing when you look at the move that they made? Adam, may I? Yeah, of course. Jamie's right on this one. Five career games with 20 or more carries. They've come against Seattle, Detroit, Detroit, Detroit, and Seattle. Okay. Funny. It's a funny thing. I happen to think that the NFC North run

defenses aren't going to be shut down. Detroit should be good. Green Bay's got the talent to be good. Uh, Chicago added linebackers. I don't know about their defensive line. Those are six of his 14 games. I can give you his projected strength of schedule. It's in the bottom half of the league. So if you're, if you're worried about the matchups, yeah, he's going to have some tougher

matchups. He's, he's absolutely proven that he can be a good passing downs back. And I think it would be a departure from what Kevin O'Connell wants to start splitting up the running back workload just based on how much they had Madison last year. They still put a ton on Dalvin cook's plate. So I feel like they want, I feel like they want one guy to handle most of it to begin the year. Like that's their plan A. And plan B is if Madison stinks and he's not explosive

and he can't get it done against tougher defenses, then I think they look to Ty Chandler or Dwayne McBride. That would be the order I would have them in as backers. Maybe they add somebody else before this preseason is over. But for now, I can't help but be excited. But it's based on volume, totally based on him getting a lot of work. We have a question. What round is Madison worth drafting now?

If you missed it, Dave said round three. And around round four. Literally, I'm at 36. Okay. So would you rather have Madison or ETN? Oh, ETN. Easy. I have ETN a spot higher than Madison.

Madison or Ken Walker? Madison. Madison for now. Okay. Madison or Calvin Ridley? Ridley. I believe I have Ridley higher. All right.

We have a bold prediction about Ridley later. Yeah. What I think is complicated about Madison is I do wonder if the bad metrics are just because he barely plays, you know, and if he could, because when he has gotten the work, the matchups have been good, but the numbers are a lot better. So I don't know. It'll be interesting to see. He's got his eight career games with 15 or more touches. He's been below four yards per carry. This is strictly his carry numbers.

Well, then don't do of those games. Everything else has been 4.1 or higher. Yeah. I think he needs, I think he needs the rhythm and the work. It's the rhythm and the rhyme. Also,

I don't know if this means anything to you, but the Vikings were one of the luckiest teams in football last year. They went 13-4. They were something like 11-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less or eight points or less. Record-setting luck, basically, for the Vikings. In their 13 wins, Dalvin Cook averaged 17.2 carries per game. In their four losses, he averaged 10.3 carries per game.

I don't know if that will carry over, but they will lose more games this year, and that could mean even less work for Madison because the targets did not go up for Dalvin Cook. That's if that stat carries over. All right, we'll have more time to talk about this. Last question, give me your two favorite destinations for Dalvin Cook, and then we'll move on.

Miami and something in NFL media. Miami and where he's not going to kill somebody, crush somebody. I think the answer is Miami and Miami. I guess maybe Tampa Bay. Yeah. Well, that would kill Rashad White. What about the Chiefs?

Yeah, but I mean... Chiefs? Chiefs? Chiefs? What do you think? Yeah. Chiefs? Chiefs would hurt Isaiah.

I mean, it'd be great for him to be a Mixon replacement if they were just like, we're cutting Mixon and signing Cook. Yeah. That would be fun. That would be fun. We'll find out. We'll also find out the results... Could be New Orleans, Cook. Yeah. That would be fun. That would be fun. We'll find out. We'll also find out the results.

Could be New Orleans, maybe. Of a big soccer match. Saturday on CBS, one of the most celebrated soccer tournaments in the world is down to two clubs, Manchester City meets Inter in the UEFA Champions League final. Our world-class team will be on the pitch

with live coverage beginning Saturday at 1.30 Eastern on CBS. Break time. When we come back, a DeAndre Hopkins news item, a Deshaun Watson news item. They are not related. And then Dave's bold predictions right after this. Did you know that across Ontario, utility damage happens 19 times a day?

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Fantasy Football today. So DeAndre Hopkins is going to visit the Titans. There are some ties there as the Titans offensive coordinator Tim Kelly was the Texans coordinator in 2019. Head coach Mike Vrabel was on the Texans staff at one point with Hopkins.

Dave, Hopkins has been on pace for 160 or more targets in seven of his last eight seasons. Would he get there? Nine targets per game, basically with the Titans. Nope. I don't think he would.

This is the team that had the second slowest pace last year. They only played 992 snaps. That was second lowest in the league. They threw the ball at a 51% rate. Maybe that goes up a little bit if Tannehill, well, they got Will Levis. So even if Tannehill gets hurt, they've got something besides Malik Willis at quarterback. But the Titans do what they want to do. And I don't think that this would be particularly good for DeAndre Hopkins target numbers or fantasy numbers.

And the Titans have been bottom three 30th or worse in lower, I guess I should say not worse in past attempts in four of the last five seasons. Meanwhile, same guy, Tim Kelly, offensive coordinator for Tennessee says that they're going to give rookie running back Ty J Spears as much as he can handle. Jamie,

was this a news item or just fodder? I mean, I think I saw something where Mike Vrabel said Hassan Haskins looks good and something similar about, you know, they expect him to have a role too. You know, you know the story with Derek Henry. Unless he's hurt, they're not getting him off the field. So does Spears have maybe a gadget role? Sure.

You know, I wouldn't be surprised if that's the case look at the rest of their receiving core you know they have for the most part three guys that you could say are reliable and all three of them are unproven in burks okonkwo and phillips you know so giving you know a little bit more of a role to somebody would be would be great but yeah i think any of the backup running backs there in tennessee being spears and haskins you need an need an injury to Derek Henry for them to be any significant fantasy options. And hopefully that's not the case because we want to see Derek Henry still be Derek Henry. Interesting quote from Deshaun Watson talking about just really his confidence and he's feeling better and how difficult it was to be away from the game for so long. He said, quote,

if you stopped doing something for so long, you just naturally lose that confidence because you haven't been playing at that level. So you forget your body and your muscle memory, forget how fast and how to do things. So that was Deshaun Watson. And I think it'll be a relevant discussion when we talk about Calvin Ridley in a little bit. Meanwhile, Justin Herbert recovering from a non-throwing shoulder injury did participate in seven-on-seven drills for the first time. And a very good young cornerback, J.C. Horn for Carolina, the Panthers. I almost called them the Hurricanes. He will miss the remainder of OTAs with an injury to his foot and ankle. And it looks like Jamie might have a Florida Panthers hat on.

We need a big win tonight. We need to get back. It hasn't been very good. It hasn't been very good. I do have a Panthers hat on. It's my son's eight-year-old travel baseball team. That's the Panthers. So we have a big game tonight as well. Okay, well. Go Panthers. If I had to root for one of the Panthers tonight,

I'm not going to finish that sentence. Let's go to Dave's bowl predictions. This one is about four different running backs, somewhat encroaching on one of my bowl predictions, which was bad form, Dave, but what is your first bowl prediction? The first bowl prediction is that Aaron Jones

will not average 13 PPR points per game, but Cam Akers, Jameameer Gibbs and Alexander Madison will. So this is basically a bus call on Aaron Jones. Did a little bit of research on him. First of all, let's just start at the beginning with the Packers. This is not going to be the same green Bay offense that we've come to know and love with Aaron Rogers under center. It's Jordan love.

And by accounts, he's gotten better in the off season practices. He's not missing targets against air anymore, but he's still making mistakes with the football. He's still throwing wobblers downfield. And he's already had a tendency going back to his college days of not throwing to his running backs. This is an important part of Aaron Jones' game. When he catches a lot of passes, that makes up for the lack of touchdowns

because he's not scoring as much. Dylan was stealing short yardage touchdowns last year. I don't think Aaron Jones had any inside the 10. I think this offense is going to be more RPO based. We'll see a little bit more of that. Jones is not as efficient in RPOs compared to traditional run offenses. A.J. Dylan is. That's something that worries me a little bit.

They've played 31 pass plays together in small sample size alert. Love and Aaron Jones. Jones has no catches. Three targets, no catches. I don't think he's going to get you 1,400 total yards like he's done three of his past four seasons. I don't think he's going to get you a ton of touchdowns. He's going to be 29 years old during the course of this

season. I think I'm going to move away from Aaron Jones and not have him on any of my fantasy teams. Okay, so I know you're going to rank Madison ahead of him. Already done. This bold prediction is that Aaron Jones will not average 13 PPR points per game, and there's usually about

20 to 24 running backs who average 13 PPR points per game, so he's a low-end number two running back or worse. But Cam Ak acres, Alexander Madison and Jameer Gibbs will all average that. And they'll all be better than Aaron Jones. Um, Jamie, your reaction. I mean, look, a lot of what Dave says makes sense. Uh, I still buy into, you know, his role on the team. I think that, you know, again, it's, it's about what a guy has done

versus what he will do. And I think that Jordan Love is going to understand his role in this offense, which is not necessarily to avoid throwing to his running backs. I don't care what the small sample size is for those two guys, what they've done, you know, catching passes from, or Jones catching passes from Love in his limited opportunities as the quarterback there. I think that's a big part of what this offense is. A big part of what LaFleur wants to do is to involve his backs in the game.

And again, you look at what the Packers told us this offseason. They wanted to keep Aaron Jones. They brought him back on a reduced salary. He wanted to stay. So while his age is not what you like to see from guys that are going to start to continue to produce, this is at a point where he's probably going to start to decline a little bit. I still think his opportunities in the passing game

are going to be pretty significant. Again, looking at this receiving core, what it is, there are a lot of holes. And so I'm still buying Jones over those guys. I still think that he's going to outproduce those guys. And I still think he's going to hit that mark because as you said, a lot of guys are able to hit that mark and it's not going to be very difficult for him to reach that.

Okay, so Jones has been second on the team in targets four straight seasons, and he's been... I'll make it to five. Okay, alright. Let's see. So, he just doesn't get that many carries anymore. He got 213 carries in a full season.

The year before that, he was on pace for 194 carries, and it was 219 before his injury. So really, since his injury midway through the 2021 season, Jones is, you know, what is like 215? What is 210 divided by 17? I don't know, but he's not really getting a ton of carries.

He does get you about 50 to 60 catches, though. 12.3, 12.4. We'll round up. I think one interesting part of this is that they throw so much in the red zone under Aaron Rodgers. Will they do that as well? Yeah, but doesn't that work against Jones? Because that's Dillon territory, especially the closer they get.

It might be. It might be, but we'll see. Again, zero touchdowns last year inside the 10. Dillon had five. Only inside the five-yard line, Dillon had 10 carries, and Aaron Jones had two. So Dillon was the short yardage back, the goal line back last year, and that's a problem for Jones.

However, this is the one thing, Dave, that I can't get over. There is nothing that makes me believe that Aaron Jones isn't definitively better than A.J. Dillon. I think they'd be smart to use Jones more and Dillon less. What do you think? I think they're going to use them both. Yeah, but I think it should be more Jones and less Dillon. I don't know that it will be, but I think it should be.

Well, I think it could be 12 or 13 carries a game for Jones and 8 or 9 for Dillon. I bet that's where they were close to last. I don't have Dylan's, uh, average attempts per game on me right now, but I'm sure it was pretty low. Yeah. All right.

I don't know. We're, we're discounting a lot of running backs that are 28 and 29 years old. And this is another one. Uh, last part of that bold prediction, Jamie, which of the other three running backs is least

likely to get 13 PPR points per game? Akers, Madison, or Jameer Gibbs? Akers. Dave, what do you think? Least likely to get there? Akers, Madison, or Gibbs? Akers is the one that I have ranked below Jones still.

I moved Gibbs ahead of Jones just because I don't want to have Jones on my team. I don't know. Akers might average more than 13 fantasy points per game, but he might play nine games. You get what I'm saying? I love the way that he finished last year. I think the offense will be stronger in LA.

I think they're going to be in a lot more high-scoring games. I'm not certain that Akers isn't going to be playing three downs for the Rams. He might not, but he could, because I just don't know what else they have it or running back. They're thin on talent outside of the guys that, you know, but I think you can average more fantasy points per game than Jones too.

I'm just, I'm souring on Jones. Okay. The next bowl prediction is about Calvin Ridley. I bet Jamie would get on board with this one is Jamie had one about the Jaguars offense and does better than he ever did in fantasy football. And what helped me get over the top on this. And actually my original bold prediction was that he would be like, what did I say? Adam top seven. I don't remember. I think I said he would be top seven and I felt like, yeah, that wasn't bold

enough. And so hopefully saying top five is bold enough. I started reading some of the reports from OTAs. John Shipley is a guy that covers the Jaguars. He called Ridley the ultimate weapon during OTAs, expects him to just completely be the, he said that the talent and the physical ability isn't a question whatsoever. That's something that people are worried about. You mentioned a quote earlier on the show about the long layoff that players have when they're not playing football anymore. I think he's over that already. The reports out of Jacksonville are really, really good. And then I did a little bit digging into what happened last year

in that passing game. Obviously, a ton of targets for Christian Kirk, over 130 targets for him, over 120 targets for Zay Jones. Marvin Jones no longer on the team. He had 81 targets. I can't imagine. Well, Jones definitely is, and he's on Detroit now. I can't imagine that Zay Jones or Christian Kirk are within 90% of where they were last year, if I'm saying that right.

Let me say this right. At least a 10% drop off in targets. I think Zay Jones could be like 30 or 40%. And that kicks down the door for Calvin Ridley to get 140, 150 plus targets. I think he leads the way. Do you know who led the Jaguars in drops last year? Ingram. Christian Kirk.

Oh, wow. You know who was second? Ingram. Oh, wow. You know who was second? Ingram? Zay Jones. So this is a move toward taking a little bit of pressure off of those guys. I'm not saying that Christian Kirk's going to be bad. I'm going to be reasonable with where I draft him. I think he's going to be a good number three fantasy receiver.

Zay Jones is worth at least a late round flyer in some full PPR leagues. But I think Ridley takes off. I think Lawrence will take a step forward. This is the dude that's going to make that Jacksonville offense pop. I'm going for him in early round three. Okay. Jamie, your thoughts.

I also have a question here in the chat that we'll get to about what, well, I guess you can address this really hasn't played in two years. What makes him different coming back from Deshaun Watson? What makes him rust proof? I mean, you gotta be concerned. Anytime these guys have these long layoffs, you know, that's, that's always a problem. Look, running in, in shorts and t-shirts is definitely different when you're running in pads and you know, guys are hitting you. So that's something that, you know, we have to wait and see. Um, I, I would be surprised if he

looked bad in these workouts, you know, that would be more alarming than i think the fact that he looks good so you you mentioned this uh when we were talking about the with my bold prediction about that stretch of games that trevor lawrence had and the amount of targets that went to those two guys in particular zay jones and christian kirk and that jones had more targets over that five game stretch than christian kirk that's clearly the opportunity that calvin really stepping into the the thing that's going to push him into a top 10 range. Top five range is going to be how significant the target differences between Ridley and the other guys. And that's the thing that worries me. I just don't see that necessarily being the case. So he's going to be fantastic. He should be their best receiver if he's back to being Calvin Ridley, because his pedigree and his ability should stand out above

the rest of the group. But it's a very, very talented group. I mean, you know, when you talk about pushing Zay Jones now to the third or fourth option, that's a pretty good situation. When you're pushing Christian Kirk from what he did last year down to the second option, I think they hopefully will involve Travis Etienne more in the passing game. That should be another factor in this. And Trevor Lawrence, as we've talked about a lot, and I know you like to allude to this, Adam, when he uses his legs, he's a pretty special talent as well. And so there's just a lot to love about all the moving pieces in this offense. And so I just don't know if he's going to be that much of a volume player comparatively to the rest of the group.

And that is what I think is going to keep him outside of potentially being a top 10 guy. I think the good news for Ridley is that even if he doesn't have that volume, he's a big play guy. Um, and he needs to be used that way when he was used as a short yardage, short area guy in 2021 and only five games, he was pretty bad.

You know, he was, he was on pace for less than a thousand yards. And that was as the number one guy, uh, Kyle Pitts was better than him in terms of yards. I'd be, I'd be shocked if that's how they use him.

All right, so let me tell you a few things here. Let me see how much it bothers you. Okay, first of all, the last time we saw him play was 2021, and in five games, he had 31 catches, 281 yards, and two touchdowns. It was really disappointing coming off of his top five season. So just real quick, does that bother you? The last time we saw Calvin Ridley, he struggled. Different quarterback.

Doesn't bother me. Okay, how about this? In 2020, when he was a top five wide receiver, he was much better when Julio Jones was not on the field. Julio Jones, I mean, how about, I'll just give you this. The target per route run rate, it was something like 90, it was 20% with Jones and it was 29.3% without Jones. So Jones was better than him. Not in touchdowns, of course, because Jones never scored touchdowns,

but Jones was a more prolific player than him in 2020. That was 2020. So I would say that you could argue that Calvin Ridley, at his best, it was when Julio Jones was injured. And then in 2021, Kyle Pitts had more yards than Ridley in the five games that Ridley was healthy. So that's a bit of a competition thing, that he needs to be the guy and maybe the only guy to be really

at his best. I mean, that's part of the formula for making elite fantasy wide receivers. You think back to the guys last year that were great.

So, he would have to take a big step forward and targets bigger than I would give him. Like, I'm thinking 140 to 150, but he would need to be

like closer to like 170. And I don't mean to sell him short when Julio Jones was on the field because there were six games that they played together that Julio Jones played like 80 or more percent of the snaps. And Julio was just amazing. But Ridley was on pace for almost 1,500 yards and 17 touchdowns.

So he was really good, but he was even better without Julio Jones. It was a few years ago. Yeah, and Jones was on pace. He's the same guy. 1,800 yards, right? So that's just it. I mean, it's been a short career for him.

It's been four years, but at his very best, Ridley was the only guy because Julio Jones was out, and Russell Gage, I think, was the number two guy at that point. And that's not going to be the case. They got a lot of options. They got a lot of weapons in Jacksonville.

Also, Dave, Jamie, does this bother you? Trevor Lawrence had pretty bad deep ball metrics last year. I won't get into all of them. I won't bore people with the numbers. But he was actually, on passes of 25 or more air yards, he had the second worst passer rating in the NFL. How many drops did he have on those throws? I think he was close to the top of the NFL. How many drops did he have on those throws? I think he was close to the top

of the league. I know he was on like top 16 plus air yards. He and Josh Allen were tied for the most drop passes. Yeah, I didn't really use that as a deep ball. I did 20 and 25 or more yards, but his

numbers were bad. Seventh highest off target rate on throws of 25 or more yards. Does it matter to you? Could be a personnel thing. No, I think you've got to give the maturation process some time to grow. A second year in this system, continuing to improve as a quarterback, as a passer. Those are things that you hope to see a guy take one step to the next,

especially somebody with his pedigree. All right. Let's take a break here. Get to Dave's third bold prediction, which is a shocking one after this. All right. Dave is super bold on this one. Holy cow. Greg Dulcich. OK, I could see that one. But Greg Dulcich and Mike Gasicki will become every week starters. Did Kelsey, Andrews, Kittle all have season-ending injuries? What's going on here? No, I think Gasicki can slide into the top 12 by the end of the year. I think the Patriots will use him the way that the Dolphins did last year.

They've been trying to find somebody who could do that. And I know it's gross to think about the Patriots passing offense, but I think Juju can lead the team in targets. Who's second? I think it could be Gusecki. I think he could end up being second on the team in targets. I think he can help replace Jacoby Myers on short throws. Certainly is a red zone threat. Certainly he's a short area target. That's good for Mac Jones. And I think that there's a path where Gusecki could be, yeah, we just got the rules for the Scott Fishbowl. Do you know it's five points for a reception of 10 yards that goes for a first down in Fishbowl for tight ends? Like, I'm going to grab Mike Gusecki in those leagues. And then with Dalsich, it's double PPR and double point for first down. It's double PPR. It's double points for first down.

So two points for the catch, two points for the first down, one point for the 10 yards. Dulcich could be even better. I think that Sean Payton linked with him. He can line up all over the field. He's much more of a receiver than a blocker, although I think he can do both.

I could see him... Could he become second on the team in targets? I think he can do both. I could see him. Could he become second on the team in targets? I think there's a pathway because I just don't know how good Corlin Sutton is. Okay. Jamie, your thoughts on Gasicki and Dulcich being every week starters? Also, if you're watching on YouTube, either live or on demand, please hit the like button. Jamie. It's a big leap for both those guys you know i i think first with with dulcich you know just the the negative stuff that seems to be coming out of sean payton's mouth is

is concerning you know that he's not thrilled or at least what he saw on tape the the indications that he gave with um the pre-draft interviews i think it was a pre-draft interviews, I think it was a pre-draft, uh, news conference. Maybe it was post-draft. I don't know. Just didn't sound very encouraging on Dolce. I'm hopeful.

I think he's got so much talent. I don't think he's going to be second on the team and targets, but he certainly has an opportunity to, to improve, uh, for Gusecki. I mean, you know,

it, it feels as if he's going to be one of these guys. That's always going to be a fantasy tease because I just don't know if he'll ever get those opportunities to be you know that productive first off I think you know you you see with this Patriots receiving core it's messy you know so there's the plus the minus is Mac Jones you know how good is he ever going to become? So I don't put a lot of stock in really anybody there. You know, I like what I'm hearing about Taequann Thornton because I think he's got some potential.

But really the guys that are there for New England with Juju probably going to be the top target getter. Still Devontae Parker there. Whatever Thornton does. Let's not forget about Hunter Henry and his role certainly as a red zone threat. So Gusecki just is not somebody that I'm interested in really in any format. Yeah.

Gusecki. I don't know, Dave. It's too, it's, I think it's, I think it's usually around flyer material. And you know what? 0% rostered by, Gusecki is rostered in less than 5% of leagues by week four for the rest of the season, I would say. It could be.

Or he could be rostered in 80% by then if he catches a couple of touchdowns. I'll say this about both guys. They are both coached by men who have utilized tight ends moderately well to amazingly well over the course of their careers. They are not embarking on new territory with tight ends here. So if there's anything that sticks out to Bill Belichick and Bill O'Brien about Gusecki as a receiver, they're going to try and unearth it.

If there's anything about Dulcich that reminds Sean Payton of the Jimmy Graham days, he will do his best to get it going. They have tried in New England and back in New Orleans to try and find that next guy, and they failed and they moved on. I said that I would try and practice patience this year with my draft picks. If I draft Gusecki in my leagues, and it would be tight end premium where I'd go for it, I will not be very patient. If by week three he's not doing anything, that's an easy one

to punt on. Probably just shouldn't draft him, but okay. No, I appreciate the boldness, but it didn't work for John. It didn't work for Henry, really, with them. Henry had that touchdown year. He had all those touchdowns.

Okay, good stuff. Good stuff. We really like Calvin Ridley. Tomorrow, I have two of my three bold predictions. One will be about Jerry Judy. One will be about Jameer Gibbs. I don't know. I don't know what the third one's going to be.

I'll figure it out. Stay tuned for that tomorrow. If you want to hear more of Dave's bold predictions, check out Fantasy Football Today in 5. We are going to record it right now. You can watch that on youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. Thanks to Dave and Jamie. Schaefer, I hope you're doing okay with the Dalvin Cook news.

And go Panthers.