Fantasy Football Today - Dan's FADE List! 5 Big-Name Fantasy Stars Who Could CRASH in 2025 (06/12 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 We got Dan's bus list here on Fantasy Football Today Express. We're gonna find out who Dan Schneier does not like heading into the 2025 season. Welcome to FFT Express. I'm Jamie Eisenberg. That's Dan Schneier. We're looking at Dan's bus list. Five players he's probably avoiding, I guess, unless they fall to the right spot. We'll find out Dan's take on guys like Chase Brown, Jackson Smith and Jigba, Ken Walker. Man, you don't like the Seahawks. Alvin Kamara and Chris Godwin. Dan, let's start with Chase Brown, the number one player on your bus list. When would you take Chase Brown?

Starting point is 00:00:29 What concerns you about him for this upcoming season? Let me start by saying it's a fade list, Jamie, kind of like what Adam was supposed to get for St. Jude a couple years ago, but refused to for no good reason, other than his wife had an important phone call at the time, quote unquote important phone call. But as far as what Chase Brown scares me,

Starting point is 00:00:45 I feel like the perfect, everything had to break perfectly for him to have the season he had last year. Zach Moss was supposed to be a big part of that backfield, had to get injured. The Bengals had to have no one, no one they drafted in the middle rounds or anything like that to replace him with.

Starting point is 00:00:58 They traded for Herbert, it was too late, he couldn't grace him. Now they brought in Taj Brooks, so I really like his film. And I think they have a plan at running back here. And I'm not so sure the role will be the same for Brown. So that's the starting point there. The second part of it is while I did like him a lot last year, he was one of my favorite draft picks. He was on a lot of my teams. And I called him as a sleeper here.

Starting point is 00:01:18 I liked him when I could get him at that price point. Now with the price point in the mid 40s, like this just feels like we're buying him at his peak. So it's almost like a situation where I don't necessarily see the ceiling being reached again. And so I don't want to be the guy drafts him as far as where I'd be comfortable drafting him. We're like round six range for me is fine. Round five, six.

Starting point is 00:01:36 He's never gonna get there. So you're probably not getting chased back. Are you targeting Taj Brooks? Are you targeting Pete Ryan with late round picks? I like Taj Brooks late, yes. Okay, makes some sense. If you're anti-Chase Brown, take a look at the other guy in the backfield. I just look at what, there was no significant investment to replace him.

Starting point is 00:01:56 Brooks wasn't a high draft pick in the NFL draft. Pete Ryan is a guy that was with this coaching staff and makes some sense to bring back a guy for depth. I wonder if Zach Moss will make the final roster. I'm still comfortable with Chase Brown as a as a borderline top 10 running back. I think there's just huge upside. And if you want to hear more about Chase Brown, we talked about this on Wednesday's episode, talking about running backs in the range of 9 through 16. So a little bit more in depth conversation on Chase Brown. But this is the anti-Chase Brown version of maybe trying to avoid him. Let's go with the two Seahawks guys next, Dan. You got JSN and Ken Walker as guys you're looking to fade.

Starting point is 00:02:29 Tell us why. So Seahawks are a big fade team for me. One of my favorite non-Fantasy plays is the Seahawks under on win total. Reason being, I don't think they've done enough to address their offensive line, which was their main issue last year. And I think in addition to that, they took a major downgrade at quarterback going from Geno Smith to Sam Darnold. When I went back and watched some tape of Gino Smith, I was kind of surprised at how good he was last year, given how bad the stats were.

Starting point is 00:02:51 I think a lot of that was because the system wasn't great and the offensive line was terrible. Well, I'm not sold that the offensive line is going to improve him. While I like Clint Kubiak's system there, and I think that's an upgrade for sure, I don't trust Sam Darnold outside of that situation. So I'm kind of fading everything there when it comes to the SEALX JSN, who had big catch numbers, big target numbers was the kind of main play in that offense last year. I don't think that's going to, I don't think they're going to be as successful in the past

Starting point is 00:03:17 game. And as far as Ken Walker goes to me, I really just can't understand where he's ranked. I get it. The flashes kind of make him, you know, put him in a mindset, put fantasy matters in the mindset of what could be there. But he's been injured so often. Charbonnees in that backfield as well. And I don't trust their offense or offensive line. His offensive line could still be a concern, clearly. You know, the positive, I guess, for JSN is that if Darnold, you know, went through this car wash of, you know, Shanahan

Starting point is 00:03:42 in San Francisco for the year he was the backup and then Kevin O'Connell and just got better coaching that he showed with Justin Jefferson. I don't think you should expect Justin Jefferson numbers but he showed he can support an elite level talent and if JSN is a few tiers down which is where he's being draft fantasy wise I think anybody would put him you know a few tiers down NFL wise that hopefully the breakout can come in year three. And just looking at the two games where DK Metcalf was out, the numbers were, at least one game was astronomical against the Rams. But he put up good numbers in those two games, got the targets, and the production was there.

Starting point is 00:04:17 So I'm okay with JSN as a high-end wide receiver too, but your concerns are valid. Look, and if Cooper Cup is anything close to being healthy, he's going to be a factor. And we saw what Kubiak did for what it's worth with MBS in New Orleans. You know, that's a guy that he brought with him to Seattle. So that'll be a few targets that go in that direction. And I think if you're in the pro Ken Walker camp and probably anti-JSN camp, you're looking at it as they are making a pretty big emphasis to try and make the run game better.

Starting point is 00:04:44 And if the run game is better, it's going to clearly impact the passing game and JSN who's going to share some targets now with some other guys. The thing that I do like about Walker though is I think from what we've seen, yes, the big plays are definitely there. Yes, the injuries are definitely there. If the role in the passing game stays somewhat close to what it was last year, then he's got the upside to be a top 10 guy. And we saw it just in terms of how his numbers compared to,

Starting point is 00:05:08 you know, James Cook, for example, who led the NFL or tied for the NFL lead in touchdown. So depending again on what side you come out with these players, I like the upside. Obviously Dan's a little bit concerned, but the environment may not be the best for both of these guys if Seattle is not gonna win many games.

Starting point is 00:05:22 We're gonna take a quick break here on FFT Express. We come back and get into Al Makamara and Chris Godwin as guys. Dan is looking to fade. All right, Dan, let's just stick with going from Ken Walker to Camara, guys that are being drafted in similar ranges. Look, the environment for Seattle may be bad. The environment for the New Orleans Saints could be the worst in the NFL because their car is no longer there and we don't know who the quarterback will be.

Starting point is 00:05:44 And Camara is not 30 years old. So is this a format thing for you or is this across the board you're looking to fade him? It's across the board fade. Obviously in PBR I'd be more willing to take him at this current value, but where I see him ranked for us and others in half PBR and in standard, that's just a range I would never even consider Alvin Kamara given what the situation is. And I think you laid it out best. I think when you look back at what's made Kamara be a kind of a surprise fantasy success the last two seasons, a lot of it has to do with Derek Carr. A lot of it has to do with the fact that Derek Carr is just checking down to him so often and just throwing him these passes so often.

Starting point is 00:06:17 It's part of who Derek Carr was. Tyler Shuck or whoever the heck starts there, which I don't even know if it'll be Shuck. We could be looking at some really bad games some of those Rattler games last year and Hayner games last year We're just punt pun hundred seventy yards of total offense That's not enough to get Khmer going even if he gets six receptions or a few less than what he got So maybe in PPR leagues I can be open to the idea of it but not in the range where he's being drafted for me It when it comes to these guys like a mayorara, it's just they're drafted too high for where I would like to take them. Kamara is one of my bigger fates though across the board this year.

Starting point is 00:06:50 This is the one guy we agree on. I try to avoid Kamara. You know, again, anybody listen to us how I feel about older players at this position. And look, I was burned last year. I think a lot of us were that, you tend to avoid guys that are 29 30 years old This position there. Henry was great. Joe mixin was great. You know, the only one that really struggled was was McCaffrey, but Camara didn't miss three games at the end of the season with a groin injury and who knows what will happen this year I think the competition behind him may be the best that he's had in several years if Devin Neal is anything of significance

Starting point is 00:07:20 And finally a coach that may believe in Kendrick Miller, given what Dennis Allen was hesitant to use him. So we'll see if he's off the field a little bit more. Now, he does have the benefit of not potentially losing some of those short yardage carries to Taysom Hill because we don't expect him to be ready at the start of the season, maybe at all. But I think like you said, and I totally agree, they may not score very many points to begin with. So he may not have those touchdown opportunities no matter who he's sharing the ball with. So PPR 75 plus catches is probably what will save him. Nine and a half PPR could be you know, pretty ugly. Last guy here we have is Chris Godwin coming back from the ankle injury. He is going to be at a discounted cost. He's gonna go probably three rounds after Mike Evans, two rounds at the minimum. Where are you comfortable taking Godwin and is it injury related? Is it performance related? Is it competition now?

Starting point is 00:08:06 Where are you concerned about or what are you concerned about with Chris Godwin? It's like a seven or it's like a 80, 20, 90, 10 for me, 80 being the injury, 10, 20 being the competition and the targets they've added to that offense players like Macmillan, who I really like and Epuco, who may be the new young version of what Godwin is, but it's 80 injury. I just think why am I comfortable drafting a player in the top 60, which is where he's currently being ranked and going, um, over a lot of really talented players, Travis Hunter, Caleb Johnson.

Starting point is 00:08:34 I love the fit. RJ Harvey, Devante Smith even sometimes goes in that range. Jamison Williams, healthy players on good offenses. I'm not that Godwin's not on a good offense. He is, but healthy players for a guy that's been injured at multiple time points of his career And it's now coming off a very serious injury I don't know that he's gonna be a hundred percent for week one And I don't know that he's gonna be a hundred percent this season at all and be his full self

Starting point is 00:08:56 So like I do love Godwin as a player, but he's an older player now coming off another major injury It's just too rich for me at that price point when giving up when the opportunity cost is missing out on some of the players I mentioned. Totally makes sense. You know, the, uh, the, the concern I think is, is valid with what the target potential could be with a new offense coordinator. Again, third year in a row, they have a new offense coordinator, the investment in a buka who's shown that his best role is probably playing in the slot. That's where Godwin's best role has obviously been in his career. The one thing that I keep

Starting point is 00:09:28 coming back to Godwin on is it's not a ligament situation. It was a broken ankle that hopefully will heal and that they just gave him the contract extension. You know, and this was one thing that I mentioned going into free agency. If it was like a one year, hey, we don't think you're going to be ready, but we'll give you an opportunity to prove yourself. You've been one of our guys, you know, you've, you've, you know, taken us through a couple different 10 years of coaches and you know, won a Superbowl for us. They gave me a three year deal and then they still go out and draft a book. And is that more an indication on what they think of Godwin or where they're planning for the future with Evans who's going to be 32. And so how this all sort of, you

Starting point is 00:10:03 know, plays itself out with McMillan coming off the strong finish, you know, and so I'm still comfortable with Godwin in the range that he's going. I do not want to reach for him. It's more of a settle for type of play. But last year he was so awesome. He was so much better than Evans in the seven games. They were healthy. He was five points per game better in PPR. He was averaging over 19 PPR points per game. Evans was at 14 and we know Evans finished and how he typically does. I just can't get past that what Baker and Godwin have meant to each other. We'll see if the new coaching staff,

Starting point is 00:10:34 new office coordinator at least, has those same feelings. But I certainly understand your concerns about Godwin, injury related and coming back with more significant competition. So we'll see how that all plays out. That's Dan's Five Guys again. That's Chase Brown, JSN, Ken Walker, Alvin Kamara, Chris

Starting point is 00:10:49 Godwin. They're fates, not fust. They're players that he is avoiding at their current ADPs. We'll see where their ADP settles as we get closer to August. For Dan Schneier, from J from Jamie Isenberg. Thanks for watching. Thanks for listening. that's a peace break.

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Fantasy Football Today - Dan's FADE List! 5 Big-Name Fantasy Stars Who Could CRASH in 2025 (06/12 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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