Fantasy Football Today - Dave's Bold Predictions! (06/02 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 2, 2022

Dave starts the show by telling you why he doesn't have Diontae Johnson ranked in his Top 24! Then we'll give you some news and notes (8:40) with thoughts on the Titans offense and Travis Etienne ... Deshaun Watson has been a Top 7 QB on a per game basis in every season of his career, but Dave thinks that streak ends this season (16:00)! And find out which young WR he is very bullish on (24:00) ... The Fantasy industry is way too low on Adam Thielen (32:00) and Dave gives a bold call on a TE who can finish Top 12 (37:30) ... Your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? It's a no-win game. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet.

He's just going to go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Deontay Johnson's going to disappoint. Deshaun Watson may as well. But Gabriel Davis and Adam Thielen, those could be draft day bargains. These are some of Dave's bold predictions. Welcome to the show. It is Thursday, June 2nd. NBA Finals tonight.

We're going to talk to a Celtics fan who's gone to one Celtics game in his life about that in a little bit. I'm Adam Azer with Dave Richard and Heath Cummings. It looks like he's a little mad at me, which is good. No, I don't. I just think it's really elitist of you to assume that anyone could afford to go to a basketball game. Typical Knicks fan calling out the Celtics.

That's not fair. Okay. Most completely, it's completely elitist. Most basketball games are very affordable for you. I haven't been to, I don't know the last time I've been to a basketball game. So he's been to an NBA game more recently than you have.

Yes. We can start there. Yeah. How many, how many NBA games did you watch this year? Me? have. Yes. We can start there. How many NBA games did you watch this year? Me? Adam. You. Oh. 80?

No. But did you watch 80? I watch almost every Knicks game. Did I watch the match? No, I didn't watch the match. We'll talk about that later. Let's get into bold predictions. Let's get into bold predictions here. Your email is fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. You can also, that's the letter I, cbsi.com.

You can also leave us an Apple podcast comment. We're going to read some on tomorrow's show. Although I'm going to be in charge of organizing them now because Schrager's gone. Our first show in the post-Ben Schrager era. All right. What could possibly go wrong? Here are Deontay Johnson's 17-game paces

each of the last two seasons with an Azor stat. Good. I removed two games from 2020 in which he played a combined 25 snaps. Are we okay with that? He had three targets in those two games. Barely played. Would we have started him in those games?

Did we know he was going to be limited? That does not matter. That is not the point. This is not a started fantasy point stat. Exactly. Okay. Sure, go ahead. Take away those two games.

Here was his 2020 17 game pace. 114 catches, 1,210 yards, nine touchdowns, 184 targets. Here's his 2021 17 game pace. 114 catches, same exact amount as 2020. 1,234 yards. That's 24 more than 2020. Eight touchdowns down from nine.

180 targets. Four fewer than the year before. Honestly, it's almost the exact same pace for Deontay Johnson when he's been healthy, which is amazing considering the Steelers passing offense was so much worse in 2021 than it was in 2020.

Oh, it was just the raw numbers. 35 touchdowns to 21 in one fewer game. Okay. So the touchdown part of that, I agree. And about 300 more yards. The only thing that's ever mattered for Deontay Johnson is the fact they threw 650 passes both seasons. Okay. That's the only reason he's been good.

The yards were lower and the touchdowns were lower. The touchdowns were much lower. Anyway, Dave, what's your bold prediction on Deontay Johnson? The bold prediction is that Deontay Johnson will not finish as a top 20 fantasy wide receiver in any format. I think it's easier to say a non or half PPR,

but including full PPR, I think he's going to struggle because he's already talked about this. He's always been a volume King. He's always been the guy that gets a ton of targets. He averaged 10.6 targets per game last year, actually over the last two years and Roethlisberger and the Steelers through at least 63% of the time, each of those two years. And I don't know if the Steelers are going to be willing to let Trubisky and pick it dictate the offense like they did with Ben Roethlisberger.

I bet they bring that in considerably out of 60 percent and probably closer to like 55 percent. We also heard about Chase Claypool this week. Talk about how the receivers need to try and diversify a little bit more. I don't know if that's a Claypool thing or if they're just going to try and line up receivers all over the place and really try and force defenses to pick and choose their battles on the field. So the bottom line is that I think the targets for Deontay Johnson come down. And if those come down, his efficiency has stunk. And that's why I'm worried about him being good on, say, 120 targets or even 115 targets. Among wide receivers with 50 more catches last year, he finished 15th in yards after catch per reception, 20th in yards per route run.

He was under 2.0 in yards per route run. 32nd in end zone targets. That's with Ben Roethlisberger as his quarterback. 38th in yards per reception. 29th in catch rate. He had a 63% catch rate, which is wild considering his ADOT was 8.5 yards per target. You'd think that he would catch more of those types of throws. So I just, I think the targets are going to come down.

Steelers are going to spread it around a little bit more. Steelers are going to run the ball a little bit more. Deontay Johnson won't come through as a big-time fantasy receiver. There have been 25 wide receivers who have earned at least 300 targets since Deontay Johnson came into the league. He's earned 400.

But 25 have earned at least 300 targets. He is the only one of those wide receivers who has averaged lower than seven yards per target. Wow. Yeah, it's little

dink and dunk throws. But has he had anybody who watched Steelers games? Has he had the worst quarterback of that group? Cause he had Mason Rudolph and, uh, that other guy, his name. I always forget that one year.

No conscious, no conscious. And then two years of bad bin. Yeah. Um, well, the guy right above him is Robbie Anderson. Right.

So right above, probably not some anderson right so right above probably not some bad okay but but they're basically tied they both have had terrible quarterback play right um yeah i mean i just don't think he's going to have good quarterback play this year and i think he's going to have less volume i i don't have date i don't have him outside of the top 20 and you shouldn't bold predictions aren't based on rankings anyway. But I've got him 17th, I think, in my projections in full PPR. 22nd in non-PPR. So I wholeheartedly endorse this bold prediction.

I think it should be more bold. Well, Dave has him 27th. Yeah, I'm out. So you are making your rankings reflect what your bold predictions are. Because I don't want to just wish stuff. But that's the point of a bold prediction is to say something outside of the rankings. Yeah, but the fun of it. I don't like doing that because then it's like, well, you said this in your bold predictions podcast. No, who says that? Nobody's ever said that. Come on. I've been called on it. And there's nobody ever.

Hey, you know, I don't mind being bold, Ethan. I'm not bold enough. Most of the time. Usually I'm, I ended up being the most cautious of everybody on CBS. And I don't like that. This is a case where I think it's pretty clear that Deontay Johnson is going to struggle. I will take Gabriel Davis ahead of Deontay Johnson in my PPR drafts this year. Wow. That's bold enough. Okay. You know, I can draw at a later show.

I'll say who, maybe if you want to be optimistic about Deontay Johnson, who might inspire you? Keenan Allen. Yeah, Keenan Allen. So we'll do that on a different show. And it's done. Looking,

if you're looking for a leg up on your bookmaker, we've got you covered on the Early Edge podcast powered by Sportsline. Every day you can join Coach,

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and it's in your feed by 11 a.m. If there's a sharp side to the action, you'll be armed with it. So go check out the Early Edge podcast wherever you listen to FFT. Some news and notes, more sad news. Another death in the NFL family. Former Dallas and Bears running back Marion Barber

passed away at the age of 38. It's very sad to see. Sad to see it. But some football news. Travis Eat 38. It's very sad to see. Yikes. Sorry to see it. But some football news. Travis, there's some on the field news, sorry. Travis Etienne seemingly only caught passes at practice, according to CBS Sports' Jonathan Jones.

And Etienne's been talking about how he wouldn't mind being, he wants to be Debo Samuel. He wouldn't mind being Debo Samuel. But Dave, what else stood out from Travis Etienne's quotes? Well, I don't know if this necessarily stood out from ETN's quotes other than he talked about how he loves being able to catch the ball and make plays against defensive backs rather than running between the tackles. And he said, who wouldn't love that? And it makes perfect sense. Jonathan Jones also noted it's OTAs. They can't really glean anything by handing off in a practice where no one's wearing pads and no one's doing any tackling. So they're going to use him more in the passing game.

But we know that ETN has awesome catching upside. And here's another player that I'm happy to take ahead of Deontay Johnson in my fantasy drafts on the chance that he ends up being a guy that catches 50 plus balls and racks up plenty of yardage and is used more as a receiver than as a running back in Jacksonville. I will say if James Robinson starts the year on the pup, I could get on board with Etienne over Deontay Johnson. If James Robinson's on the active roster week one, I don't think he's going to get enough carries.

Okay, let's go to our next news item here. Ryan Tannehill and Austin Hooper have good chemistry going on right now, according to Titan Insider. But really, it's just kind of a, I don't know, what is it, like a grab bag to see who's going to be that guy for Ryan Tannehill. And that's not Traylon Burks yet.

But are we sleeping on Austin Hooper? I guess that's one question. That nugget came out in a story about how Traylon Burks still doesn't quite have, or at least there's still questions about his conditioning. Like at this point, he is participating in most of the practices that he's in, but it's not necessarily like he's working no problems. Apparently, an

inhaler was involved. I don't know. It's kind of a mess. I'm starting to find tight ends that I don't mind as streaming options. Hooper, I guess he makes the cut. He takes on the Giants in week one. You could take him with one of your last picks, but give me Gerald Everett. Give me David Njoku. There's probably going to be another three or four tight ends I'd rather have than Hooper.

We should probably, not us as a podcast, but the whole world should. We need to find a better way to discuss what we don't know about what's going on with Traylon Burks. Because if it's an inhaler, that wouldn't have anything to do with conditioning. Why not? You take inhalers? It's a different type

of conditioning, Heath. It's not necessarily a weight issue. Right. It's a health issue. Okay. But conditioning, I think, insinuates that someone's out of shape. Well, I don't know. I don't know i i don't i don't i don't think they give inhalers to people because they're out of shape unless it's yeah i've never

seen that it's usually oxygen or something i'm just saying like if we don't know what's going on with chalen burks and they're being pretty coy about the whole thing so they're like i would hate to think that he's got some health concern and people have the idea that he just gained too much weight yeah right right but we never heard anything about a health concern we never heard anything about him getting too much weight yes we did i told've said Prisco. Okay, that was before OTAs said that there was concern that he might gain weight. It was like rookie mini- No one has said he's coming out of practice

because he's gained weight. I didn't say anything about him gaining weight. It seems like he's out of shape, which isn't necessarily gaining weight. I mean, I'm out of shape right now. I'm not gaining weight. Yeah, but you're not going to get you an inhaler to help you get through the podcast probably not i could do the podcast

okay heath enjoyed the match according to heath oh it was fantastic it was really intriguing it was funny there was a great life lesson hidden inside of it. It was, it was really wonderful. Um, Aaron Rogers was the best golfer for the entirety of the match. Uh, Tom Brady had by far the best personality. Um, I still don't know who won Heath.

I'm going to guess the old guy. Uh, Patrick Holmes was probably second in both categories. Um, but, uh, Rogers and Brady won the first two holes. They played 12 holes.

And you just win holes or you push the holes and nobody wins them. So Rogers and Brady won the first two holes. Josh Allen really, really struggled with the golf game throughout the entire event. Really did not hit very many good shots at all. And Mahomes decided on

hole three that it was time to start drinking. So he was giving Coors Light all the free advertising they could handle. And we saw this truth that I've talked about, and it's true in bowling, it's true in golf, it's true in pool, it's true in a lot of these kinds of sports. There is a stage you can get to with alcohol consumption where you become better

than you actually are at these sports. It's impossible to hold on to. So we saw Mahomes about hole four or five just caught fire and got loose and was playing outstanding. They came back, they took the lead. They were like minus 200 in live betting. And then he lost it. And he started hitting the ball out of bounds and in the water. And they tied it back up. And Rodgers made a putt on 12,

a nice putt to win it. Cool. That sounds fun. It was very fun. Excited for tonight? I'm very excited for tonight. I wish that we could start at a reasonable time. But yeah, I will take a nap this afternoon so I can stay up.

I just can't wait to see the matchup between Steph Curry and Marcus Smart. Who are you rooting for? I will be rooting for the Celtics. Was that a tough one? Because I know how much you love Steph Curry. I do love steph curry um i like my son was a warriors fan because he's a front runner and just like randomly changes teams all the time he's currently a celtics fan but if the warriors win he will be a warriors

well he's got his team is going to win the championship this year yeah tell him congratulations yeah i'm very excited i uh am going to the Yankees game tonight. And it was supposed to be Shohei Otani was scheduled to pitch tonight. But they got rained out and he's now pitching the day game of the doubleheader. So I'm not getting to see Shohei Otani, unfortunately. Well, you'll see him hit. I will see him hit. Yeah, yeah.

But I thought that'd be cool to see him pitch. But, oh, well, still looking forward to going to the game. Are the Yankees good? You can go to the doubleheader tomorrow and see both. No, the doubleheader's today. Oh. He's pitching in like two hours. Leave right now and go to the game.

Are the Yankees good? They have the best record in baseball. Okay. They are good. That's going to be a fun collapse in October. Oh, will you stop? Let's get back to Dave's bold predictions. Deshaun Watson in his last three seasons,

I guess really in every season, because in his four seasons ago, he was the number one quarterback per game as a rookie. The next three seasons, he's been number four, number four, and number six in four point per passing touchdown leagues. And number six, number six, number seven six in four-point-per-passing touchdown leagues, and number six, number six, number seven

in six-point-per-passing touchdown leagues. Almost surprised it's not higher. That's per game. He's actually been a top-five quarterback in three straight seasons, obviously not including 2021, but that's overall. Top five overall, top six per game in four-point,

top seven per game in six-point in three straight seasons. Dave says this about Deshaun Watson. Oh, you go to even when he, he's not going to play a drop. Even, even when he comes back from suspension,

Deshaun Watson will finish outside the top 10 and fantasy points per game among quarterbacks. Won't be top 10 per game. Okay. Why? So even if he, it's easy to say he won't finish as a top 10 quarterback because if he gets suspended,

he won't get enough points in half a season to finish in the top 10. I'm saying on a per game basis, he still won't be top 10. And I feel like it's, it's, I don't feel like we should take his past results for granted when he hasn't played football in over a year, he's on a completely different team, completely different environment.

It's a total turnaround of a situation for him. If he can overcome it, hey, I'm going to look really bad here, and he's going to be awesome for fantasy. And the Browns will probably be in playoff contention, if not a Super Bowl contender, because of it. But I kind of feel nervous about trusting him, considering that the last time he faced a pass rush, for example, was January 3rd, 2021. He was with the Texans, and it's just a completely different situation. Like I said, the receiving

in Cleveland, they've got Amari Cooper and what? They've got Donovan Peoples-Jones, David Njoku, Anthony Schwartz, David Bell. I don't think they've got that number Peoples-Jones, David Njoku, Anthony Schwartz, David Bell. I don't think they've got that number two guy. More importantly, I'm not sure if they've got that legitimate downfield threat that Will Fuller used to be. And maybe that's what they do. They go and get Will Fuller. This blows the argument to smithereens. But I think the receiving core in Cleveland is a problem for Deshaun Watson.

I think he would have to just make a lot of great work on shorter throws and not necessarily connect on a lot of deep throws like we've seen from him in the past with not just Fuller, but also DeAndre Hopkins when Hopkins was there. Will he run as much? This Browns team just gave him $230 million guaranteed. They're going to let him run around as much as the Texans did, and it wasn't that much. It was like five, six times per game. He averaged around five yards per carry. He was good for anywhere between 60 to 85 fantasy points just on his rushing totals alone. I think that comes down. I think the Browns are not going to ask him to run. And why should they? They've got a great running game behind them, which brings me to my next point. Will they even throw as much as Watson did when he was with the Texans last year,

54% pass run ratio for Kevin Stefanski's Browns. That's the highest pass run ratio Stefanski's ever called in his time with Cleveland or his time with Minnesota. The lowest amount of pass plays that Watson's thrown in Houston in the last three years. I don't know if you want to count his rookie year was lower than 54% in his rookie year, but he was at 55% in 2018, 57% in 2019, 63% in 2020. That was the year that he went off and had almost 5,000 yards passing.

He was throwing the ball six out of every 10 plays. That's just something that I don't think is going to happen in Cleveland. This last part is just for fun. The Browns' history at quarterback, it's pretty bad. In 2020, we talked, I just said, 4,800 yards passing. For Deshaun Watson, he averaged 301 passing yards per game. Heath, Adam, can you name the last quarterback to do that in Cleveland? To do what?

Average how much? 300 yards per game passing. Never. Oh, that's never happened. Name the last quarterback to throw for 10% less than that. 270 yards per game. Nope. Yeah, probably not.

Never happened. Baker holds the record for season pass yards per game with 266, only four Cleveland quarterbacks in their franchise history, even before 1990, whenever they moved to Baltimore, thrown for 250 yards in a game in a single season. Watson is only one year with more than 261 passing yards per game in his career. And here's the last thing. It's an unfriendly schedule.

He's not in the AFC South anymore. He's taken on the Steelers twice, taken on the Ravens twice. He's got the Chargers, the Patriots, the Bills, the Bucks, New Orleans. These are tough defenses with good pass rushes. I know that offensive line is okay, but I think that there's so much for Watson to overcome on the field that makes him difficult to trust, especially when there are so many other quarterbacks

that are either just as good throwing the ball, if not better, or will run the ball more than Watson is expected to. Okay. Very thorough. That is expected to. Okay. Very thorough. That is good stuff. Yeah. It all makes sense. It's good arguments.

Well, okay. Two things I think that don't make sense. I don't think it makes any sense at all that the Browns would make that type of effort to give him that type of money and spend that type of resources and not throw more and not let him run. Like if you're not going to do that, why would you, that doesn't make any sense.

So I do think he's either. I agree on the first part. I bet he's either going to throw more or he's going to run. I bet they throw more than 54, but I, I don't think it's going to be anywhere near 60%. Well, it doesn't need to be 60%. He's, um, I don't agree that there are multiple quarterbacks that we can say with certainty are better at throwing the ball than deshaun watson he's one of the greatest young quarterbacks in nfl history that being said i've moved him down in my rankings

i'm not sure that he's going to play and i'm not sure that he should um so i but if you told me he was playing 17 games and all i have to do is talk about Deshaun Watson, the football player, and nothing else is relevant. Where would you put him? Where would you put him at that? Fourth or fifth. He's much, much better than Kyler Murray and will have as good a weapons, at least for the first half of the season, he's going to have better weapons than Lamar Jackson. He's better than him.

Um, like he, he's better than all these guys, in my opinion, but you have my head of burrow. He's not better than burrow necessarily. Well, I don't think burrows going to run as much as to Sean Watson.

Yeah. Sean Watson could run quite a bit less and still run more than Burrow. Yeah, well, okay. All right, all right, all right. Deshaun Watson, not going to be top 10 per game. Not top 10 or top 12. Yeah, top 10 per game. Top 10. Bold prediction.

Where do you rank now, like 20th? 14th. Okay, let's take a break. When we come back, we'll tell you about a wide receiver that will finish top 15 and one that will finish top 20. Bold predictions from Dave when we come back on Fantasy Football today.

All right, we've got an AFC East wide receiver that Dave says is going to finish top 15 in any format. And he is a guy who has never had 600 yards in a season. So who's it going to be, Dave? It's Gabriel Davis of the Buffalo Bills, and I'm cannonballing into this pool. I think he's going to have an improved role in one of the league's past happiest offenses. Josh Allen might not be a good golfer, Heath, but he's damn good

at throwing the football, and he recognized pretty late last year that Gabriel Davis can be good at throwing the football. And he recognized pretty late last year that Gabriel Davis can be good at catching the football. He got more opportunities to play starting in week 14. So there's six games between the regular season and the post season where Gabriel Davis went off final six games, 45 targets, 26 catches, 449 yards, eight touchdowns. That's a 17.6% target share catch rates.

A little ugly. It's under 60%. It's 58%. He had nine end zone targets. One out of every five targets was an end zone target from Josh Allen for Gabriel Davis. His ADOT was 14.9. His yards per route run, 2.1. Now, we can throw out the game against Kansas City because I don't think every game that he's going to play this year, whether it's against the Chiefs, the Rams, game against that he's going to play this year, whether it's against the chiefs, the Rams or whoever, he's going to get 200 yards and four touchdowns.

So that weighted down quite a bit, which means his other five games, we're taking out the Kansas city game that everybody saw and everybody's eyes popped out of their heads, 35 targets. That's seven per game, 18 catches, 248 yards,

four touchdowns. That's four touchdowns in five games. I think he can do that. And he games. I think he can do that. You think he can do that? You think he can score 14, 15 touchdowns? I think he's going to be a high-volume touchdown guy in Buffalo. That's the thing. He has been the most

incredible touchdown guy. Almost every time he gets five or more targets, he scores a touchdown. It's insane. It's hard to sustain that but i just said you have touchdowns like for reference i don't project anybody for better than a seven percent touchdown rate like aj brown has a career ten percent touchdown rate i project him at seven percent um because i don't know if he'll be at seven percent fine fine but what's gabriel davis

if he gets a hundred like if he gets 120, 6% gives him seven touchdowns for the year. No, I think he can beat that. So maybe I am going to give him 7%. I think he can do it. I think there's no one threatening his role. All the receivers that they brought in in Buffalo are slot guys to replace Cole Beasley. Emmanuel Sanders is out of there.

He lined up out wide 80% of his snaps. He's going to continue to line up wide in Buffalo's offense. He should at least see the kind of target share that he did in those five games, which is seven per game, if not more, because you know that Buffalo's going to throw more, so maybe seven and a half per game. And I think Allen's going to trust him. I think this offense is going to be explosive.

I think Davis is good. He's 23 years old, and he's got a chance to really break out this year. Heath, what do you think about, what was that number you gave for the ADOT and where it should be? Because I'm looking at ADOT last year. I prefer it in the

11 to 12 range. Yeah, his is higher than that for sure. It was 13.1 last year i think it was over 15 the year before something like that there aren't that it was 15.2 the year before there aren't that many wide receivers who are fantasy relevant with a dots that high there are some like kenny galladay dk metcalf mike evans was at 13 kenny already two years ago so yeah there are some. Tyler Lockett. But it's a high ADOT to be fantasy relevant.

Does that matter? Well, it's the reason why he has a 56% catch rate. Right. Because he's running all those deep routes. It matters a lot more in PPR than it does in non because it's hard to imagine that he's going to catch 70 passes, really. But if he averages 16 yards per catch, then he can still be good at non-ppr um but

it's just the hard thing is and and he did have a couple of real monster games and scored a bunch of touchdowns but in his last eight or nine games on the season he got over 45 yards twice he wasn't playing as much in a lot of those games though they really didn't get him a chance played more in the last six and in those last six games he got over 43 yards twice so like yeah he had 14 targets against the jets in week 18 which makes those target numbers per game look a lot better he caught three of them for 39 yards yeah that was his worst game though i mean that was a really shockingly inefficient game for him three catches 39 yards on 14 targets um you know the previous time he faced the jets he had three

catches for 105 yards on three targets he's gonna yeah i think that 14 number is really inflating the targets per game over a six game stretch right what is it without it does it go up well is it like five 15 18 28 31 divided by six yes five targets per game which is not a fantasy-relevant number. Yeah, but you kill me when I take away games. I mean, he did have those. Yeah, Week 18 happened. Week 18 happened. So did 10 targets against the Chiefs in the playoffs.

But the question is, I brought this up. When Emmanuel Sanders didn't play or left with an injury, Gabriel Davis was great. Does that matter? Does that make a difference? He's gone. Cole Beasley's gone. Those are target getters numbers two and three on the team. It's only three or four

games that Sanders either didn't play or left with an injury, but Gabriel Davis was targeted more, very productive in all of those games. Three of those four games. One of them, Josh Allen barely threw. I think it matters a lot. That's why I have him

ranked 30 spots higher than he finished last year. You have him ranked where? Like 30th. And Dave, you have Gabriel Davis where? 26th. Okay. So I'm not going to rank I'm not ranking him as if he will be a top 15

receiver. So this is one that's a little bit different than Deontay Johnson. Because I could say that Deontay Johnson should be ranked 21st if he's not going to finish as a top 20 receiver. And Davis, I could have him ranked 15th if I thought he was going to finish as a top 15, and that's a bold prediction. But I think you can draft him later. I think you can easily draft. I don't think you should reach for him and take him where I would take my 15th ranked receiver, which is round four.

I think you can wait around and a half, two rounds and still confidently get Gabriel Davis. There were three players who averaged or two other players who averaged exactly the same number of fantasy points per game as Gabriel Davis last year. They've both had significant changes in circumstances as well can you guess who those two players are no do you know how many fantasy points per game he averaged would that help in the game yeah that would help okay he averaged 7.9 ppr fantasy points per game my goodness tied with two players who might get drafted. There are definitely hives or truthers for both of these players.

Oh, man. MVS? MVS. Good job, Dave. Jarvis Landry. No. No. I've got two names.

There is Tony. He's a year older than Levisca Chenault. Levisca Chenault's name. He's a year older than Gabriel Davis. Oh, it's Levisca. Levisca, MVS, and Gabe Davis. If anybody was going to give away a trivia question, I would have thought it would be me. Thank you, Heath.

Let's go to our next bold prediction. Adam Thielen will finish as a top 20 fantasy wide receiver. So I know you have Gabriel Davis ranked ahead of Deontay Johnson, which is pretty damn bold, Dave. Do you have Adam Thielen ranked ahead of Deontay Johnson? Your bold prediction is that 32-year-old, he'll be 32 in August, Adam Thielen will finish as a top 20 fantasy receiver. I'm double-checking just to make sure, but I believe I do in non-PPR.

No, they're back to back in non-PPR. Johnson's still ahead of him. So I haven't had the stones to put Thielen ahead of Deontay Johnson in non or full PPR. And I don't think you have to do that. I think you can wait for Deontay Johnson to get drafted along with probably several other wide receivers before you go and get Adam Thielen.

I think everybody forgot about how Thielen started last season. He was a beast through the first 12 weeks. 8.2 targets per game, 70% catch rate, 17 PPR points per game, 15-plus PPR points in 7 of 11 games. How did he do it? The targets were great. The target share, 23%. That was great.

He was touchdown dependent. He scored in 10 of 11 games. The touchdowns made up 32% of his total PPR points. But guess what? He's been doing this with Kirk Cousins for four years. I completely get the idea of worrying about a touchdown dependent player when it's been one year, maybe even two years. But I've got four years of data that says that Adam Thielen is the guy for Kirk Cousins when they get inside the 10-yard line. Here it is. In 2021, 28% target share inside the 10-yard line, 36% before Thielen got hurt in week 13. 2020, he played the full year,

43% target share inside the 10. 2019, on the season, it was low. It was 13 percent, but it was 43 percent in weeks one through seven before Thielen got hurt. And then back in 2018, 28 percent inside the 10. The Vikings ranked 30th in pass-run ratio inside of 10 yards last year. 2020, they were 28th, dead last in 2019. I think that's a Mike Zimmer joint. I think that's him calling the shots and saying, we're not going to throw as much when we're inside the 10. Let's run it with Dalvin Cook. Kevin O'Connell, now the head coach there,

already bringing in a new game plan, a whole new mindset feeling. Talked about it on the Pat McAfee show about how he is excited about this new offense and it's re-energizing him a little bit because it's different. To me, that means that they're going to throw even more than they have in the past. It'll probably mean Dalvin Cook gets some targets too, but I think Adam Thielen doesn't lose his role one bit as being the go-to guy for Kirk Cousins inside the 10.

I can count on him to get a lot of touchdowns. I think he's in position to do that as long as he stays healthy. He'll be a top 20 fantasy receiver on a per game basis. It is just an indication of how dumb we are that this is a bold prediction because not Dave, I mean the industry as a whole. No, I get what you're saying. I'm not offended. Adam Thielen's been a top 15 wide receiver on a per game basis, three of the past four seasons. I think the fact that he's going to be top 20 this year should not surprise. Anyway,

the only, only reason I don't have him projected as a top 20 wide receiver is because of the rule. I just told you that I don't project guys for higher than a 7% touchdown rate. Like I, there's plenty of reason to be concerned about his age and about injuries and about touchdown regression.

But this is what, this is who he's been. Yeah. A lot of bad yards games, though. So if he doesn't score them, you're going to have some really bad games. Catches made up a third of his PPR number two. Yeah, I'm okay with that, though. That's fine. Sure.

I like to get, but there's a lot of 39, 50, 46, 46, 65, 62. Those are okay. But those are some of his games. And then the year before that, it was even worse. I mean, 31, 29. You have Thielen over Gabe, right? No. No, he has Davis.

You have Davis over Thielen. Yeah. He has Davis over Deontay. But I think I can get both. If I go around 5'6", maybe even six, seven and smaller. I think it makes a lot of sense to have feeling over Deontay. Um, in fact,

like it almost, you have to talk somebody into having Deontay over feeling it should be, but, um, Gabe over either of them. I'm, I'm struggling. Oh,

let me, let me tell you ADP. Okay. So guess since May 1st on NFC, where do you think Deontay Johnson is among wide receivers? Wide receiver what in ADP? 16. 14.

Where do you think Adam Thielen is? 35. 35. Where do you think Gabriel Davis is? 29. 28. 28, Dave! Woo!

28. So he's going seven spots ahead, and that is... Actually, it's 12 picks. One full round ahead of Adam Thielen. Everyone is insane. No, everyone wants to reject the older player. They want the new hotness, and they're okay with consistency

when it comes to a younger player, not necessarily an older player. Because you mentioned Thielen's consistency of being top 15 three of the past four years. Everybody in NFC drafts is banking on him regressing because he's old.

Yeah, right. Okay, let's go to... It's not right. No ageism. Let's go to your last one here. This is the boldest, I think. Gerald Everett will finish as a top 12 fantasy tight end. Chargers tight end, Gerald Everett, top 12. Where'd you come up with this one?

This is just kind of random, I feel. Well, it's not saying much because last year's Titan 12 averaged 9.5 fantasy points per game. So I don't think that this is necessarily bold. And I think we're missing a bold prediction. Yeah, I took it out because I have it tomorrow. Oh, okay.

So you're going to take my bold prediction that you liked and you're going to make it yours. I had it before I saw you send it. Well, and I didn't know that you had the same bold prediction. We all did five, except I'm only doing three because I vow from this day forward, and I want you guys to hold me to this, that I am only going to work 60% as hard as you guys do. So I am only doing three bold predictions. What do you mean from this day forward? I was at 40%.

Oh, I get it. You're saying you're going to work more now because Schrager's gone. Yeah, yeah. Now I'm going up to 60. Because you haven't worked. Right, exactly. All right, got it. So I took one about James Conner from Dave.

But Gerald Everett. Don't worry. I'll give my Conner numbers tomorrow. We'll see who likes Conner less. Okay. It might be Heath. Gerald Everett, top 12 tight end for the Chargers overall in fantasy but he's on the Chargers now

he was close to averaging 9.5 fantasy points per game in his final 9 last year after the bye with Seattle he averaged 8.8 PPR points per game he did leave a lot of numbers on the field too open didn't get targeted did get targeted dropped the ball we all saw it a tight end has had at least

10 PPR points in 17 of 32 games with Justin Herbert. That's a 53% hit rate. That's actually better than the average, which is like 48%. It's close between the two, but I like Everett's chances of being involved in that offense. I think he's more of an explosive player than Jared Cook and Hunter Henry. So it gives this Chargers offense just a little bit more of a dimension with Everett at tight end. It's a high-powered offense. You know what the AFC West is going to bring, a lot of high-scoring games.

I'm looking for pieces of Chargers players in my drafts. And on the projected schedule grades that I did, Chargers came out top two, both overall and early, in tight end projected schedule. He opens with the Raiders. He's got the Raiders. He's got the Chiefs after that, the Jaguars and the Texans after that. This is the tight end streamer that you can draft late and have carry you through the first three or four weeks of the season. But I also think he can finish top 12 by the time we get to the end of the year.

Yeah, this one is, I think it's less bold than the gabriel davis one for sure i've got him i've got gerald everett 15th in my projections if he plays 17 games or even 16 games i think he'll definitely be top 12 you're right it is it is less bold than the davis one davis being top 15 wide receiver gerald ever being a top 12 fantasy tight end i I guess follow up question. There's an outside shot that Adam's going to be a top 12 tight end next year. Me? Adam Troutman? No. Why?

Because the bar is really low. Oh, oh, oh, yeah. Right. I just said it. 9.5 PPR points per game. I'm going to have to work a lot harder. Good. I wouldn't want to.

It's just 9.5. Unless, unless it was with one of my last three picks. Are sure he's a streamer are we sure that he's the that he's the tight end who's going to lead all chargers tight ends and receiving and not donald parham yeah i'm i would bank on everett the guy they signed as a free agent now unless unless ever gets to training camp and he just turns to doo-doo, and Donald Parham is outstanding. Okay.

Let's go to our emails. Fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. This is from Eric, a CBS meteorologist in Twin Falls, Idaho. We always have to answer our colleagues' emails. Absolutely. I wonder what the weather's like in Twin Falls, Idaho today.

I don't know. I told him I would read the email on the show, weather permitting. Is that funny wonder what the weather's like in Twin Falls, Idaho today. I don't know. I told him I would read the email on the show, weather permitting. Is that funny? I think that's pretty funny, right? Good for you. Hilarious.

12-team PPR, two-keeper league. Closing my eyes and keeping Antonio Gibson as a fourth-rounder. The only other option is McCaffrey as a first-rounder. I'd keep McCaffrey, personally.

Yeah, and isn't the phrase holding my nose? He said closing my eyes, not holding. You can do both. I thought you closed your eyes when you couldn't choose between two things and you just closed your eyes and picked one. He could be holding his nose, too.

He is a meteorologist okay he has a degree he's learned the technology is such that he could close his eyes and still tell us the forecast no he probably needs a teleprompter you could not to mention you know the the meteorologists use a green screen yeah so they've got to know where they're standing in relation to the graphics that are on right he He could hold his nose and do it, though. He could do it with this, right. So he also has ETN in the 10th, Cam Akers in the 10th, and J.K. Dobbins in the 12th. Can only keep one of them.

So you should keep Christian McCaffrey and J.K. Dobbins. You like Dobbins better than Akers? I do. I don't know if I'm ready to commit to one of those running backs. Obviously you're going to keep one of those three because the value is amazing, but Dobbins, I don't know if he's going to be ready to go for training camp acres. We don't know what he's going to look like when training camp opens.

ETN has at least he's healthy. know what he's going to look like when training camp opens. ETN has, at least he's healthy, at least he's participating and running, which is better than what the other two or at least Dobbins anyway is doing. I think I might think Akers was running. It was just so slow that it looked like he was walking.

I'm hoping that he's a little bit better. For now, I would pencil in Akers and I think I'd agree that CMC is the first. Well, yeah, because also he gets to pick his draft order. So you could pick, well, he's got the second pick. You could pick 12th, per se, and keep McCaffrey, and then get the next pick. Yes, I do like that.

Love it. Yeah. Great strategy. Thank you. We. Love it. Great strategy. Thank you. We call it the Acer strategy. From Matthew. Where's Matthew from? Clarksville, Maryland. Who is your favorite running back in Miami in redraft, or is that a backfield

you would prefer to avoid? I'd prefer to avoid it, but if I had to pick one, I would. Is it based on draft value or just who I think is going to end up with the best numbers at the end of the year? Because I think it's pretty easy to say that Edmonds is going to be the one that ends up with the best numbers at the end of the year, especially in PPR. But do I like that I have to take him in like round seven to get him? It's okay.

I don't know what anyone's ADP is. Yeah, so that's fair. I kind of know. I think Edmonds is in the 90s, close to 100. Is he really? Mostert is like 120. You're right. He's 97th on NFC.

Love Edmonds. I like Edmonds at that value for sure. Mostert like 120 or so, and Michelle is in the 180s. I would draft Edmonds and Sony Michelle for sure. Mostert like 120 or so and Michelle's in the 180s. I would draft Edmonds and Sony Michelle at that cost. I would too. Mostert's in the 160s. 160 for Mostert, okay. Still.

Both of them ahead of Alec Pierce, that's sad. 170th for Mostert as of May 1st. Okay, next email is from Andrew in a suburb of Washington, D.C. Sleepy hollow. Hey, Aaron,

Garrett. Let's go with only. Hey, Aaron, Garrett, Anthony, and Nestor. Oh, Adam, he knows this one for sure. Yeah, I won't be seeing Nestor pitch either because he's pitching the early game of the doubleheader. These are Yankees.

Wow, it's Nestor versus Otani? Yeah, it's Nestor Cortez versus Otani in the afternoon. What a bummer. Like, let them pitch tonight. Why don't you just go to the afternoon game instead? I wouldn't be part of my 60% pledge. I got stuff to do. Why?

Go to the afternoon game and then come back and work after. I have thumbnails to make. I don't have tickets to the afternoon game. I have? Go to the afternoon game and then come back and work after. I have thumbnails to make. I don't have tickets to the afternoon game. I have a ticket to the evening game. Can someone make thumbnails for Adam so that he can go to a Yankees game? I'm at a 10-team PPR Keeper League. We start three flexes and two wide receivers. We can keep up to three players.

We lose the corresponding draft pick. I kept Justin Jefferson, Alvin Kamara, and Joe Mixon. So I wouldn't usually have my first pick until the fourth round. However, I traded later picks to get the second overall pick. I've been told the first overall pick is going to be Javante Williams.

So after that, I can take CeeDee Lamb, Mark Andrews, Tyreek Hill, Debo Samuel, or Mike Evans? Now, he already has Jefferson, Kamara, and Mixon. So who would you take? Lamb, Andrews, Tyreek Hill, Debo, or Evans? Lamb. That's where he's torn between Lamb and Andrews. You have Lamb over Debo?

Yeah, I do. Pretty sure I do. I think I'd pick Debo? Yeah, I do. Pretty sure I do. I think I'd pick Debo over Lamb, but it's really close. Yeah, I have Lamb as a top 20 player, but you don't have Andrews as a top 20 player. 25th. Okay. Okay, if you want a tiebreaker, I would take Lamb over Andrews,

but those are the two best. From Ross, from the home of chicken wings. My belly? Buffalo? I don't know. With their current ADP being fairly low, would it be smart to take Juju Smith-Schuster and another Chiefs wide receiver, and Alan Lazard and another Packers wide receiver

with the thought that you could get two top options for great quarterbacks for essentially free. Well, the Juju pick wouldn't be free. Well, I think he's around 70th. The other receiver, I guess he means. Well, if you're just trying to get receivers for free, why would you bother with Juju and Lazard? Because they're cheap. Why not just target? He's trying to get receivers for free, why would you bother with Juju and Lazard? Because they're cheap.

Why not just target? He's trying to find the number one wide receiver for Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. Right, so... He's trying to use the friendship strategy to find the number one wide receiver for elite quarterbacks. It's not a bad idea. I don't think I'd do it with both, though,

because there's no guarantees that you're going to get a true elite there. And that's for a roster spots that you're tying up. I would much rather do it with Kansas city than I would with the Packers. Oh, you would say I'm the opposite. I would rather with one of these teams doesn't have Taravis Kelsey and Kelsey is going to hog up a ton of targets as it is.

That's true. So I would rather take that. And you can get Lazard after Juju in your draft. You might be able to get Lazard these days in like round nine. What's the hope for Alan Lazard? Like if everything goes right. Volume.

But touchdowns. Deontay Johnson? No, I don't think so. Not quite as good as Deontay's been. I think he's a different player. I think you look at the James Jones season, and I'm not saying it's going to be like that, but you're thinking Aaron Rodgers is a touchdown machine.

He's going to throw to somebody. He did it. Lazard caught some touchdowns late in the year. You don't think Lazard looks like a 110-catch kind of guy, do you? No. I think he's more like 70. He got a lot of end zone targets from Rodgers last year. So you think Lothar

has more upside than Juju? I don't. No, but I don't think he's too far behind. Can I tell you where Lothar is going? I also don't think Juju's going to be used exactly the same as he was in Pittsburgh. Can I tell you the ADPs, though? Because the ADPs are going to knock your socks off.

Juju is 75. 71? No. Since May 1st. I was going to say 65. Alan Lazard is 127th. One of the best values that you'll have this year. Yeah, I've got Lazard 99th, so that's fine.

It's still very good. Christian Watson's 131st. I have Watson 119th, so I guess they're both fine. Take them in the 9-10 range. Yeah, that's the combo I would target. Lazard-Watson. From Cole.

So I asked for crazy fantasy stories with the Jock Peterson situation and Cole gave us one. 10 team super flex league is a keeper league that's been

going on since 2009. From the offseason of 2018 we had just decided the keepers for each team and posted them on our Facebook group and updated the draft board with where the players

would be represented during the draft. Remember, this is 2018. I had the second pick, and knowing that the first pick would be Aaron Rodgers, I posted, does anyone want Zeke or David Johnson? This was in reference to the consensus top two players who would be available at the two spot. I had neither Zeke nor David Johnson as a keeper, and neither did anyone else. And if they were keepers, they'd

both be first rounders. A manager messaged me asking me about David Johnson. After some back and forth, we agreed to a trade of my number two pick, fifth, sixth, seventh, and 11th round picks for his number five, second, fourth, eighth, and ninth. The details don't really matter there, so you don't have to memorize it. But it was posted on the Facebook group. And then 24 hours later, he starts to dispute the trade because it did not include David Johnson.

And remember, they had already updated the draft board and they had already posted all of their keepers. Note, we had talked about the keepers on the Facebook keeper post, so it's easy to assume that he read the list. He then disputes the trade because it didn't actually include David Johnson. Apparently, he thought, I traded for David Johnson, but that still wouldn't really give him my first round pick because I'd be taking David Johnson as my keeper.

So to recap, he thought I was sending him a player that was a first rounder along with my first round pick. Not possible. He messaged me about a player I didn't currently roster and I assumed he'd be taking David Johnson with the second pick, yada, yada, yada. We both make multiple Facebook posts and people vote. It comes down to a coin flip, which I lost.

So the trade does not go through. We're both still in the league. Nothing crazy happened in the aftermath other than everyone realizing that he can't read and is a complete dumbass. The end. He said, did anybody want David Johnson? Implying you can have my second overall pick to take david

johnson the guy makes the trade gets the second overall pick and also thought he was getting david johnson but i completely agree with our listener here cole like all the keepers were posted he should have known he's not trading for david johnson i think that our listeners can really raise the bar on the crazy things that happen in fantasy leagues. And if you don't have a good punchline about something crazy that happened at the end of these stories, then please add one. There's nobody fact-checking these stories. That's true. Just give me something funny at the end.

He called him a dumbass. I thought that was funny. Yeah. You never seen Beavis and Butthead? I watched a lot. Have I never told you the story about how my mom got Beavis and Butthead taken off the air?

Oh my gosh, what a monster. It was her? Can we save this? I'm putting it in the notes for tomorrow because I don't want to wait this long in the show to hear this story. And no, you've never told that story. That is amazing. Okay, guys, thanks for your time. Got bold predictions and your emails, Apple podcast questions, and the reason why we can't watch Beavis and Butthead anymore on our Friday show.

We'll talk to you then. Have a great day, everybody.