Fantasy Football Today - David Njoku Profile: Breakout Coming? (06/04 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 4, 2022

Jacob Gibbs tells you about David Njoku's efficiency and opportunity and why that combination might point to a big 2022 season.  You can also follow the full-length Fantasy Football Today podcast here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-podcast/id261735167 Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg You can listen to Fantasy Football Today in 5 on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today in 5 podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today in 5 podcast." Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations. Or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada.

Insurance designed for life. What were the Browns thinking with that David Njoku contract extension? Well, they were thinking they got a pretty good tight end on their hands. We'll talk about it right now on Fantasy Football Today in 5. Adam Azer and Jacob Gibbs, two members of the David Njoku fan club, I would say. I don't know, four years, 55-ish million dollars fans, but we're fans, we like them. And Jacob's gonna give you the advanced numbers here

and tell you maybe what the Browns were seeing and why he could be a good fantasy value as well. So he was a very efficient player in 2021, Jacob. Yeah, for sure. We're not quite as big of fans as the Browns, but I think what we saw last year was really encouraging. We finally, it didn't result in a huge fantasy blow up, but we finally kind of saw the breakup from, you know, Najoku that the Browns have been expecting all this time and that they've rewarded him for. He was actually seventh among tight ends

in yard per outrun rate last year. He was more efficient than guys like TJ Hawkinson, Dalton Schultz, Zach Ertz, Mike Jasicki. He was really the only Cleveland pass catcher who was able to transcend Baker Mayfield's struggles. Basically, everybody's efficiency was down across the board in Cleveland last year. Austin Hooper's yard per outrun rate dropped by 25% from 2020 to 2021 for reference. And Jogu's rose by 27% from 2020 to 2021, for reference. And Jokic rose by 27% from 2020 to 2021, which is really, really unusual with how inefficient Cleveland's passing offense was as a whole. And I think people are going to be really excited if they are excited about Njoku

because Austin Hooper has been second on the team in targets for two straight years, is gone. And what does that mean for Njoku? Yeah, a lot of targets vacated and a lot of routes vacated as well with Hooper out of the picture. And of course, the Browns heavily investing in Njoku. So I would have to think he's going to be the first one who gets the opportunity to run more routes. He only accounted for 40% of Cleveland's routes last year, Njoku did. And I think we're going to see him up around the 60, 65% range.

Um, just looking at the depth chart right now. And if, if that happens with the efficiency that we saw last year, um, and his efficiency could go up, right. I mean, we've got to Sean Watson looking like he's going to take over a quarterback. So like his efficiency sustains or even increases with, uh, you know, possibly drastic increase in routes as well, could be looking at a really, really explosive season,

which I don't think a lot of people are expecting from. Yeah. And the other aspect is there's no Jarvis Landry here that they do bring in David Bell, who seems like an interesting Jarvis Landry replacement, but just Landry was a huge part of this offense. So what does the absence of Landry mean? Yeah, I'm excited for Bell, but he's not going to be Jarvis Landry, a huge part of this offense. So what does the absence of Landry mean? Yeah,

I'm excited for bell, but he's not going to be Jarvis Landry, not right away, at least in terms of his ability to draw targets. Jarvis Landry led the Browns with a 27.4% target per route run rate last year. And for context, that was the sixth highest rate in the entire NFL.

He didn't run, you know, quite enough routes to qualify. But like among players with at least 200 routes, that was the entire NFL. Um, he didn't run, you know, quite enough routes to qualify. Um, but like among players with at least 200 routes, that was the sixth highest, uh, Austin Hooper was second on the team with a 20% rate. And so both those guys are out of the picture. And not only do they, you know, vacate targets, they vacate the targets that specifically, uh, are the types of targets that David Njoku is drawing. Um, Jarvis Landry's average route depth so the average depth at which his first cut came in his routes was 7.1 yards last year which is right in line

with Njoku's career mark at 6.8 and then his average depth of target was 7.8 yards Njoku's was 8.2 last year so I think David Bell is definitely going to be involved as a short intermediate option but I think Njoku especially with the contract, like everything is pointing towards him being heavily involved in a big part of the game plan in this area as well. Finally, let's not bury the lead. There's a quarterback upgrade here. You talked about Baker Mayfield and all of his struggles. Now, there could easily be a suspension for Deshaun Watson, but assuming that he's going

to play at least a good chunk of the season, how does he fit with Najoku? Yeah. So when I compared the data that we have on Mayfield and Watson over the past few years, there was one clear discrepancy and it was against zone coverage. Against man coverage, Watson was better, but it was actually pretty close. Against zone coverage, Mayfield's been one of the worst in the NFL, which is really hard to believe with Jarvis Landry at his disposal. He's one of the best, you know, zone coverage busters in the NFL. But Landry or Mayfield

has been near the bottom against zone coverage in nearly every metric for the past few years. Deshaun Watson has been second best in the entire NFL over the past three years. And so that is a huge upgrade

for the offense as a whole. Zone coverage is the predominant defense that is used in the NFL to use about 65% of the time. And so that's a huge upgrade for the offensive soul. And it's also a huge upgrade for short intermediate targets like Njoku, like David Bell. So everything really exciting, really good for Njoku this year. All right.

That is a David Njoku profile. We'll come back tomorrow with a Juju Smith-Schuster profile on Fantasy Football Today in five.