Fantasy Football Today - 🚨 DeAndre Hopkins to Cardinals! David Johnson to Texans! (03/16 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: March 16, 2020

A blockbuster trade has the Fantasy community buzzing. We discuss it from all angles. Kyler Murray or Deshaun Watson this season? Will Fuller or David Johnson? DeAndre Hopkins or Travis Kelce? Can Johnson do what no other HOU RB has done under Bill O'Brien?  'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Castbox, Bullhorn and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. The first of many Fantasy Football Today episodes.

This week, a big week, a much-needed week. We need some sports to talk about. Welcome to the show. Quick emergency podcast. We'll have a big, big show for you tomorrow to break down everything from Monday, Ryan Tannehill, and, well, basically everything with the Titans, Devontae Freeman getting released,

Kenyon Drake getting the transition tag. And I was getting all prepared to talk about, hey, it's Kenyon Drake. How much of a workload is he going to have to split with David Johnson? That doesn't matter anymore. DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals. David Johnson to the Texans.

The Texans are getting a second and a fourth round pick. The Cardinals are getting a fourth round pick from Houston. So do I have all the details? It's Hopkins and a fourth for Johnson, a second and a fourth? That's it. The money situation is interesting with the Cardinals getting away from David Johnson's money. The Texans

taking on all of his contract. That's the crazy part of this to me. On top of the fact that the Texans gave up on DeAndre Hopkins with three years under control, but apparently there was some talk about his deal and wanting more money and the Texans not wanting to pay for it. But the money side of this is the interesting part of it because they had Hopkins under control for three seasons,

and the fact that he's only 27 is just mind-boggling. Well, fantasy is super interesting here. So first question, Deshaun Watson or Kyler Murray, if you're drafting right now? Kyler. Yeah. Kyler is my QB three. Yeah.

I mean, we don't have, we don't have a sample of DeAndre of Deshaun Watson without DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins has missed two games in his career. One of them was week 17, right? Of this past year. I mean,

the guy's always healthy, so I can't sit here and say, well, Deshaun Watson's done this, this, and that without DeAndre Hopkins. You said Kyler's number three for you. Where's Watson? I haven't gone through yet, but I'll probably still be top five.

I would imagine that the second round pick that they get back is going to be a receiver. Top five, though. Wow, but a rookie receiver is not going to come anywhere near oh deandre hopkins no but i mean he runs obviously he's gonna you know they have to do something to enhance this receiving core because you can't lose deandre hopkins and not replace him with something so you know it's not just going to be will fuller kenny stills and then you know back then Kiki QT and backfill with somebody from the XFL.

Cam Phillips would be nice, though. I think whatever they do to fill Hopkins' role remains to be seen, but Watson's still an elite talent. Yeah, Deshaun Watson, only 13th in the NFL in passing

yards. This, by the way, this just happened, so I don't have all the stats I wanted to bring to the show, but just to make a point about how he's not so reliant on passing numbers. 13th in passing yards. I think 8th in passing touchdowns. He did miss one game. He sat out week 17.

But, yeah, like Jamie said, he does run. So that's interesting. We'll have some time to sort of digest this. Now, DeAndre Hopkins, what do you think? Value up, down, or the same? Down. Clearly down.

Same. Still a top three fantasy receiver. Yeah, he was already trending in the wrong direction after what his yards per catch were last year. Now he's going to a crowded receiving core. So he's still a top ten guy, but he's not a top 5 guy. What do you make of that? He had 11.2 yards per catch. He showed some statistical

decline. I think that the targets with Will Fuller versus without Will Fuller were so different. With Will Fuller, 142 target pace. Without Will Fuller or with Fuller leaving with an injury, 187 target pace. So that's what I thought the biggest difference was.

But, you know, it's one thing to look at Antonio Brown when he's like in his 30s having a down year statistically. DeAndre Hopkins is 27 years old. So I'm thinking that the yards per catch being down was not really a sign of him going in the wrong direction. It's just probably a statistical fluke is what I'm saying. I don't think it's a statistical fluke. It's a sign of when other guys are around him, talented guys, he's not going to get the same amount of targets. I think it's, yeah.

And now he's going to a situation where there's talented guys around him. So, you know, I mean, Fitzgerald's still going to get his targets. It's going to go down, but it's still going to get targets. Kirk is going to get targets. Isabel is going to get targets. Kenyon Drake's going to get targets targets. It's going to go down, but it's still going to get targets. Kirk is going to get targets. Isabel is going to get targets. Kenyon Drake is going to get targets. Kyler is going to run. So I don't think he's going to have the same level of production that he has

when he's the only show in town, and that's when he's been at his best. So he had only 20 deep target throws last year, according to Pro Football Focus. Of the 20 deep target throws, only eight were catchable. He caught seven of them. 3 of them were touchdowns He ranked 16th in yards per outrun It was basically 2 yards per outrun That's pretty good And I would imagine he's going to get used

A little bit differently than he was last year I feel like last year he was used more Like as a possession-y type of receiver For Houston And the Texans wanted to use Stills and Fuller Last year he was used more as a possession-y type of receiver for Houston. And the Texans wanted to use Stills and Fuller more as downfield threats. And that could change a little bit because the Cardinals, I think that they can use Kirk. They can probably get away with using Kirk any way they want to,

but he's better in the short area. Fitzgerald clearly a short area guy. Hopkins is going to be their number one perimeter receiver. I think his targets are going to be big. I think he'll see a better depth of target, and I think he'll bounce right back in the yards per catch statistic and he'll catch a ton of touchdowns. I have no problem taking him as my number two guy.

And the Texans are typically a run-heavy offense, and the Cardinals only threw 20 more passes than the Texans last year but their offense wasn't really that good if their offense makes improvement they could throw the ball more they could throw for more yards than the Texans uh that's certainly possible and um you know you hopefully have this kind of up-and-coming quarterback and offense boy this is just so interesting I'm really having trouble digesting it. What a shocker. It's so dumb from Houston's standpoint.

I mean, what do they think they're getting with David Johnson? I will say this. David Johnson was a starting running back for the first six weeks of the season. And he was more valuable in fantasy than DeAndre Hopkins was. That doesn't matter. No, but i'll just just put in perspective like he was the number seven running back in non-ppr and the number five running back in ppr in those six games before he got hurt and before the kenyan drake trade hopkins for the season was eighth and non-ppr fifth and ppr and he was 11th per game in non-PPR, 5th in PPR, and he was 11th per game in non-PPR and 6th per game in PPR. He did not have his typical season.

So Johnson, I think people have this impression that he was useless last year. Well, actually, he was a must-start running back while he was healthy before the Kenyon-Drake trade. Hopefully he's healthy. Talk about him. What do you think? I mentioned it when we talked about free agent destinations and a couple of you, Jamie, I don't think you were on the show, but a couple of you said you wanted to see Melvin Gordon go to the Chargers, to the Texans rather. And that has not been a good destination for running backs. They don't throw to their running backs.

Running backs do not score touchdowns there. So what do you think about David Johnson? Well, I mean, you're talking the post-Arian Foster days. Yes. I'm talking about the Bill O'Brien days. Yeah, yeah. I mean, look, if he's healthy, he's a very capable number two running back, I think, in this scenario. You know, kind of what Lamar Miller was, but better if David Johnson's right. If he's not, then it's, you know, it's a mess. They still have Lamar Miller was, but better if David Johnson's right. If he's not, then it's a mess.

They still have Lamar Miller on the roster, and we'll see what they're going to do there with him coming back from the ACL. They have Duke Johnson, obviously. Lamar's a free agent. I thought he was under contract. I don't think so. I'm pretty sure he's walking. And Carlos Hyde's gone too.

Hyde is definitely gone. Yeah. I thought Lamar Miller was back. But Duke Johnson's still there and so you wonder what role he's gonna play give me an over under on catches duke johnson had his career low in catches barely but he had 41 44 catches previous year he had 47 catches but uh duke being there i mean 44 catches that's not good for david johnson so give me an over under like i'll give you the whole offense changes does it well i Well, I mean, if Hopkins is gone.

Yeah. Okay, so 40 catches. 16 games of David Johnson. I'll take the over if he's healthy. Okay. Dave, 40 catches? It's less than three catches per game. Question is, if he plays only 12 games,

you're probably not going to get to 40 catches. So I'll take the under because I don't think he can stay healthy. Would you rather have David Johnson or Todd Gurley? Gurley. David Johnson or Phillip Lindsey? Lindsey. Lindsey for sure.

Lindsey is a top 15 guy for me. David Johnson in PPR or Mark Ingram? Ingram. Ingram. Ingram. All right, maybe we'll get to one. David Johnson or carry-on Johnson? I might.

I'll take a healthy David Johnson. If he's ready to go training camp, I'll take David Johnson. And I'm assuming that the Lions are going to add something at running back. I think they've had it with carry-on. So that might be where David Johnson that's where he kind of slots in. Let's do DeAndre Hopkins. DeAndre Hopkins or Travis Kelsey?

Kelsey. Hopkins. Now we just did a draft last Thursday. It was a PPR three wide receiver league. Hopkins went eighth overall. He was the third receiver off the board. Michael Thomas was the second overall pick. Devontae Adams, seventh.

Hopkins, eighth. Then Julio Jones was 10th, and Kelsey was 11th. Would you rather have Hopkins or Julio? Julio. So, Dave, what did you say? You're not moving Hopkins? Nope. Third overall, number two.

The fact that Hooper's gone, for sure. I'll take Julio over Hopkins, for sure. Okay. So then, Dave, you would just have Thomas ahead of him? You have Hopkins ahead of Devontae Adams? I'm going to move Devontae Adams ahead of him in the event that the Packers do not add a

quality pass catcher. But I'm assuming that they will. So that's why Adams is behind him for now. Nick Chubb or DeAndre Hopkins? And the fact that Kareem Hunt is there doesn't help Nick Chubb. Or Austin Hooper. They gave him the second round tender

on Hunt. I'm taking Hopkins and PPR. I'll take Hopkins and PPR, Chubb and non-PPR. Okay. Again, so much news, um, with looks like the Browns closing in on a deal with Austin Hooper.

So much news to get to a big show tomorrow to kind of sum it all up. Cause it doesn't make sense to react to things now when we don't know the complete picture, but this had to be reacted to. Other players involved in this deal, well, not involved in the actual trade. But the fantasy values affected by those on the Texans and the Cardinals, obviously Kenyon Drake's a big winner here. But yeah, who, including Drake,

who are the biggest winners and losers? Kyler Murray. Big winner. Kenyon Drake. Big winner Kyler Murray. Big winner. Kenyon Drake. Big winner. David Johnson. Big loser. No, big winner.

He's a winner. He's a big winner. Why is he a loser? No, he's a winner, obviously, getting off of the Cardinals. But he's not the David Johnson of old. No, but at least this gives him an opportunity to be a starter. Can the case be made that Will Fuller or Kenny Stills are winners? Yeah, absolutely.

Losers are Hopkins, Watson. That's a loser. Just those two, I think. Christian Kirk is a big fat loser. Christian Kirk loses. Larry Fitzgerald, Hall of Fame loser. So would you take right now Will Fuller or David Johnson? Johnson, because I just don't want Fuller.

Two injury-prone guys, potentially. If Johnson's right in training camp, it's easily Johnson. So the thing is, what do you make of that running back history with the Texans? I'll try to get the exact stats. With O'Brien? Yeah, with O'Brien. Because he can't include what Kubiak does. Kubiak's a genius.

Especially if... Hashtag Dalvin Cook. No, especially if Duke Johnson's still there. They just don't throw to running backs. And again, they get to the red zone and they don't... I don't think they've had... Deshaun Watson led the team in rushing touchdowns last year. Lamar Miller's never been a big rushing touchdown guy with the Texans.

So I just don't like the history of Texans running backs under Bill O'Brien. And then Will Fuller. I mean, Will Fuller's got a chance to really show what he's capable of here. He's going to have to. I think, again, it's Bill O'Brien's offense with one of the best receivers in the NFL as well. So now that receiver is gone. So how does that change things?

He talked about this last year, about having to throw the ball to his running backs more, which is why he went out and got Dick Johnson. He wanted to have that more part of his offense. Now it didn't work out. So he also is getting a guy that, you know, has a thousand yard receiving ability out of the backfield. Um, so hopefully he uses him in the right way. You know, it's, it's all a matter of David Johnson being back to the guy

that he was. If that's anything close to his 2016 season, it'd be a shame if Bill O'Brien didn't throw him the ball more. But, you know, it's kind of why he's in the range that we're talking about. You know, if we knew he was right, if we knew that the Texans were going to build the offense around him to a certain extent, then he'd be a top 10 guy. But he's more of a top 24 guy. May I ask a question? Yeah, no.

If this took place a year ago where david johnson was coming off of his 1300 yard i forgot how many touchdowns he had maybe seven or eight where would you rank him you'd put him easily in the top two rounds would he be he was a top two round guy last year yeah so uh Yeah. So, yeah, for sure. So you're hoping that he can get back to that point, and I don't know if he's terribly far from that point. He didn't fit into what Arizona was doing. Well, the question becomes, was he hurt at the end of the season when they made the trade to get Drake

and couldn't get back on the field, or was it just Drake was better? I think they like Drake better. If Drake was better, and the moves today suggest that, and David Johnson's healthy, then hopefully the Texans use him the right way. But I think that's the question that we'll have to find out. Do you like or hate the fact that Carlos Hyde had 16 carries inside the opponent's 10 last year?

What do you have inside the 5? Because that sounds like a solid number, right? I've got to double-check it, but I can tell you that inside the 10, 16 carries, five touchdowns, 32 red zone carries. Well, let's give it a little context. If you get Carlos Hyde's production, forget about the pass catch, just the rushing numbers from Carlos Hyde, and you're drafting David Johnson, let's say, in round five,

you're disappointed David Johnson, let's say, in round five. You're disappointed, right? He had 1,070 yards and six touchdowns. It's not great, being honest. But he doesn't catch the ball, so that's the difference. And 16 carries is not a lot. If you're getting 45 catches on top of those numbers, I would say another 300 yards. Then Duke Johnson's going to have to go away.

I don't think they're making this move with the intention of, let's feature Duke Johnson more. They're going to have to feature him less. That's all I'm saying. David Johnson's going to have to get those catches. By the way, his red zone his inside the 10 and inside the five yard production or carries rather carlos hyde not very good about half of the numbers of what you'd see from the elite guys there lamar miller had 13 rushing

touchdowns in three seasons on 716 carries 13 touchdowns on 716 carries Deshaun Watson, 12 touchdowns on 181 carries in his last two seasons. So I don't know if it's just weird or that's just the way it works in Houston, but they don't catch passes and they don't score rushing touchdowns. And if you go out and make a trade, maybe that changes things and you don't have to show Watson anymore. Maybe that changes your philosophy and they're going to commit to David Johnson. Right. It would have to be a fundamental shift that changes things and you don't have to Sean Watson anymore. Maybe that changes your philosophy and they're going to commit to David Johnson.

Right. It would have to be a fundamental shift that changes it. And they are changing play callers, right? Yes. O'Brien's not going to call him anymore. It's I've got the number for you on Carlos. I carries inside the five,

eight higher. No, it's eight. No, it's 10. Where are you looking? I'm looking at his game log from 2019. Yeah. Pro football reference has it at eight,

but I have found this page to be a little bit unreliable. So with that, we're going to leave you until tomorrow. If I'm the Texans, I go sign Antonio Brown. Because if you're going YOLO, go YOLO. He's got to get off the exemplars first, right? He's got to be cleared or whatever. You get Josh Gordon too? He's got to be cleared the exemplars first, right? He's got to be cleared or whatever. You get Josh Gordon too? He's got to be cleared by the committee.

Hey, the new CBA was signed. That's great. We're already getting ready for football. I can't wait for sports to be back. Can't wait for tomorrow's show. We'll talk to you on Tuesday. Thanks for listening, everybody. See you.