Fantasy Football Today - DeAndre Hopkins to the Titans! Fade Hopkins and Burks? (07/16 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 16, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  We react to DeAndre Hopkins reportedly heading to the Titans. In what round should he be drafted? How does this affect Treylon Burks, Ryan Tannehill and Chig Okonkwo? SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. All right, DeAndre Hopkins reportedly heading to the Tennessee Titans. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today. I'm Adam Azer with Jamie Eisenberg. I want to thank Jamie for jumping on this bonus pod on a Sunday night, not with his usual setup so he might sound and look a little bit different. If you're watching on YouTube, youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. Before I ask Jamie for his opinion on this, please go to tinyurl.com slash FFT donate. There is a spot

waiting for you in the podcast league. You got to pay up for it, but it's worth it. All right. It's for St. Jude. So tinyurl.com slash FFT donate. All right, Jamie. So what do you think? Give me a round for DeAndre Hopkins in a 12 team PPR league. Around five for me. You know, I think once you get past the top 20 receivers, he's in that next group of guys. So I mean, we'll obviously get into this, but you know,

you have his age, you have volume concerns, you have quarterback concerns. Um, there's just a lot. I think there's, there's more working against him than I think there is working for him, but I do think at the right price,

you know, anything after, uh, really the first four rounds, I think is the right time to jump into DeAndre Hopkins, especially as we're going to see how much receivers get pushed up. So I would not draft him with the idea of him still being elite, but I still think he could be productive enough

that you could feel comfortable starting him on a week-in, week-out basis. You did draft him before this news broke in the Scott Fish Bowl. That was such a steal. Yeah, it was. How do you feel about it now? I feel great. I mean, look, I knew wherever he was going to sign, whether it was going to be Tennessee or New England, and based on the betting odds that we saw at the end of last week, it seemed like Tennessee made the most sense, which I kind of felt that way all along because I couldn't see him go into a cold weather situation where the... you know, unless the money was just going to be overwhelming. Um, but I got him as the 33rd receiver in round nine, like that's just ridiculous, you know? And so it was kind of one of those things where like, when I saw the way and the way I built my draft and you can see our Scott fishbowl teams, I'm sure

we'll talk about it this week again, but, um, I only had one receiver at that point and I was like, okay, you know how I feel about Hopkins. i'm not the the biggest fan of his situation and again we'll get into it but um at that price it's just like if he hits yeah to anything close to where even if i haven't ranked you know it's it was worth it so as the the draft was unfolding i picked eight so it was you know after i had taken the third quarterback first before i took a second receiver and i was like like, man, if this works out well, I'm going to be really happy about it. And it worked out well. Yeah, it sure did. So I'm looking at your rankings.

They are updated, right? Just check the date. But yes, I did update them this afternoon. All right. It looks like they're updated. So it looks like you have Hopkins as wide receiver 21 after Judy Cooper, Christian Watson, and Debo Samuel. And before Drake London, Chris Godwin, DK Metcalf, DJ Moore.

That sounds right? That's correct, yes. All right, so obviously you said there are a lot of things working against him. DeAndre Hopkins has been the ultimate target machine, you could argue anyway. He's averaged 10 or more targets per game in five of the last six seasons. The Titans have not had a player with more than 112 targets since 2015. That's eight years ago, and that was actually Hopkins' breakout year.

Since then, he's been a target monster, and nobody on Tennessee has. They are obviously very run-heavy. Here's where they've ranked in the last five seasons in gross passing yards. If you just go look at most websites, you're going to see passing yards with sacks included, but here's where Tennessee is ranked in gross passing yards. 30th, 24th, 25th, 23rd, and 30th. Let's take a look at those three seasons in between with Ryan Tannehill, basically being 24th, 25th, 23rd in gross passing yards. It's not good, but it's not terrible. Can DeAndre Hopkins thrive on that kind of offense? Not good, but not terrible passing the ball. Thrive?

Yeah, like can he be a top 10 guy? Because he's been top 10 per game six of the last eight years. I just, I can't see it. And I think a lot of what I saw, at least in my mentions, was can he beat A.J. Brown? And it's such an unfair comparison because you're talking about a guy at 31

versus a guy at the start of his career. Brown started with the Titans. 2019 was his rookie season. It was the first year with Ryan Tannehill there. In those three seasons that Brown played in Tennessee, he had two seasons of just under 14 PPR points per game and one season of 17 PPR points per game. He did it basically on touchdowns,

two seasons. Uh, the two best seasons were over a thousand yards and over eight touchdowns. Can Hopkins be over a thousand yards and get eight touchdowns? Sure. I think that's realistic. I don't know if they'll score 11, but I think eight is within the realm of possibility.

But in those three seasons, the top reception total for AJ Brown was 70. That's going to crush Hopkins if he can't get to that. That wasn't a full season, just to clarify. It was 70 in 14 games. Yes. So you're talking in the 80s, which is low. Right.

So I think the thing with what you're looking at with Hopkins is I would probably pencil him in for right around 15 PPR points per game, which puts him as a good number two receiver if he stays healthy. You've heard me say this, and you and I have, you know, not necessarily argued it, but we've debated a little bit back and forth on what receivers have done post 30. And it just hasn't been very productive. Now he is one of these guys, just, I'll get the number. I always forget it. So I don't want to say the wrong thing, but, uh, in the last, I believe it's 15 seasons. Here's what is, uh, in the past 10 seasons, only 17 receivers age 30 or older have

averaged at least 15 PPR points per game. Now, again, he's one of them because he's 31 now. So he did it last year when he was at 16.8, but clearly this is when these guys start to decline. And so, you know, your counter to that has been the elite guys tend to still put up good numbers, but the elite numbers that you get from these guys, there's only been three guys that have been 19 points per game or higher. So to get him into the top 10, I think is a little bit of a stretch. Now, 16.8 was number nine last year. So can he do that? Maybe borderline, but I would say you're hoping for a top 15 receiver type of season,

you know, and, and that's probably a best case scenario for him. So volume is working against him. You know, you say gross, you know, numbers, uh, they've been 25 or worse in terms of past attempts in the last three seasons to those they've been 30 or worse, you know, so they just don't throw the ball a lot. And now you're talking about,

uh, him coming in, he'll have all of training camp, which is great. He's obviously a proven guy. And here's one thing that's actually makes me a little bit, uh, not excited,

but, but feel a little better about the situation. kelly's new offense coordinator there for the titans they fired todd downing last season tim kelly was the offense coordinator the last season when hopkins was in houston so he knows that system and in that last year in houston again he was what four years younger at that point um he had 150 targets he had over 1600 yards receiving and scored eight touchdowns you know so he still a monster that year. I think those numbers are correct. So there's that rapport and familiarity. And the fact that Tannehill, despite the fact of not getting a lot of targets,

was still very good for A.J. Brown. But again, 31, new team, low volume. And the scary part about this is they're still not going to be a great team. I think this makes them a better team, clearly. If they lose, at what point does the switch happen at quarterback and they go to will 11 does that matter to you that yeah very much so okay because i i know you know you're going to bring up some of the bad quarterbacks that he's played with and even you go back to last year he played four games without kyler murray to those games he was 18 plus ppr points

113 point and then the one onepoint game, which was his last game of the season. Who knows if he was actually hurt or just wanted to shut it down. But we know he had 10 targets, and that game was just miserable. So, I think the quarterback play will matter, because I think if they go to Will Levis, it's almost like we're done as a competitive team. And what does that mean for

Henry? What does that mean for Hopkins? And then, clearly, what does that mean for Burks and Okonkwo? I'm going to give you a little bit more reason for optimism. Just if you want to be a Hopkins guy, I'm just going to give you some numbers that might make a difference. Before you say this, though, where are you drafting right now? Because you are a Hopkins guy. Well, I'd love him in round five.

I'd love him, and I think your range is really great, just your rankings. So I would take him in a PPR league. I would take him ahead of Deebo Samuel. I would take him ahead of Debo Samuel. I would not take him ahead of Keenan Allen, Jerry Jr., or Amari Cooper. You have Christian Watson and Debo Samuel ahead of Hopkins. I would put him ahead of Debo. I don't know about Christian

Watson. That would be a tough one. I'm right on board with that. I don't see how you could take Drake London ahead of him. It doesn't really make sense. All the arguments working against Hopkins are also working against London, and to me, Hopkins, unless you're just worried that he's fallen off a cliff

at his age, then I get it. Otherwise, I'd go Hopkins. So yeah, I think you're spot on there. I do think a lot of people would have Metcalf ahead of him, but I know you're the low guy on Metcalf. Yeah, so anyway, Hines Ward, when he was 33, he was wide receiver 13 per game. Randy Moss was wide receiver two at age 32. Reggie Wayne wide receiver three at age 31.

Marvin Harrison wide receiver five at age 31. Brandon Marshall wide receiver three, I believe at age 31. Wes Welker wide receiver seven. Julio Jones was a wide receiver 14 per game, but he actually had an amazing year. He left two games very early at age 31. So it does, you know, you do see it. However,

AJ green missed his age 31 season and then was never the same. Adam Thielen started to decline at age 31. So there are some examples. The other thing I'll say is I think in that range to Andre Johnson, I do think he was in, he was wide receiver six at age 31. He had a 1,600-yard season at age 31. And A.J. Brown, two years ago,

or his second year in the... Yeah, 2020. He was wide receiver eight per game that year, A.J. Brown. 17.7 PPR points per game. Yeah, he was terrific. But he scored 11 touchdowns in 14 games, only 106 targets. So that's the opt-in. You've heard both sides of the coin here, and the funny

thing is, Jamie and I, I mean, I totally agree with where Jamie has him ranked. Alright, so I have to cut this a little short. We're going to talk about it more tomorrow. You want? And the Joe Mixon news is pretty big, too, so we'll talk about that. Go ahead, Jamie. You want just quick poll results of where people would draft him, because I posted a poll? Yes, and then I want to get to everyone else on the Titans real quick.

But go ahead. Okay. So round three, round four, round five, round six or later, six or later is winning at 39.7%. That's 1,700 votes. But where would you draft DeAndre Hopkins? So 9.3% say round three, 19.4% round four, 31.6% round five, and then 39.7% round six. Okay. So round five is pretty close.

Traylon Burks. It sucks.7 round six. Okay. So round five is pretty close. Um, Traylon Burks. It sucks. It really sucks. You know, and I think that again, the hope would be, uh, is there's a little bit more volume in the passing game,

but hard to expect that given the track record. But in that 2020 season, this was Tannehill's best season. Also with the Titans, Corey Davis averaged 13.8 PPR points per game that year as the running mate to, uh, to AJ Brown. And so again, if you're looking for optimism, that would be a fantastic season. He had a 90 plus targets that year. He had 65 catches. Corey Davis did. So again, if you're looking for a second receiver to sort of emerge or at least be productive when there's an elite guy there in this Titans office, it can still happen,

but I think it's just tough to expect. So I dropped him from a guy that I was taking in the sixth round to a guy that I would probably take in the ninth round at the earliest. And so it's just very tough to say he's going to be a productive guy. So for me, Traylon Burks now is in the range of Jackson Smith and the Jigba. I would take him over him, Smith and Jigba. Wait, you'd take who? Jackson Smith and Jigba or Burks? Smith and Jigba.

He's in the early 40s for me is where Burks has fallen. Wow, so you have Brandon Cooks and Juju just ahead of Burks. Yeah, it's tough. How about Tannehill? Does he get back to being, you know, in the... I said on Friday's show that I felt like there were 18 quarterbacks who could be a difference maker in your fantasy league, with 18 being like Russell Wilson,

the end of the Russell Wilson group, and then 19 being, you know, like Derek Carr and the rookies and that guy, or not Richard, not Anthony Richardson. He was in the top 18, but... Yeah, I know what you mean. Does Tannehill, Tannehill gets into the maybe he can make a difference group? I would put him behind those guys just because of

the threat of Will Levis, but yes, I mean, you saw two of the three seasons with A.J. Brown, Tannehill was over 22 fantasy points per game. So the rushing matters for him. So he's one of those surprise rushing quarterbacks that we never really reference when we talk about guys who run, but he does. And I think that's certainly going to be a boost on top of what he should be able to do as a passer. Now, again, does he stay the starter for the entire season?

I think they're going to be a competitive game. I know we say this all the time. It looks like personnel-wise, they're horrible. But Mike Variable's teams fight. They're very competitive. I think despite the offensive line woes, they'll still be productive. Obviously, the run game should be supportive. If Derrick Henry stays healthy, he should be one of the better in the league.

So I would think that Tannehill is going to play the majority of the season. So with Hopkins, with Burks, with Chegg, yeah, I think he's one of those guys that you target as a late-round number-two quarterback in a super flex or two-quarterback leagues. And then if he surprises you during the season, you add him off waiver wires into one-quarterback league. Three straight years as a top-15 quarterback per game, two of those as a top-11 quarterback per game, never higher than 10th.

Finally, Chig Okonkwo. Wah, wah. Am I right? Is it wah-wah? Yeah, very much so. This is another guy I was excited about. And so he went from a borderline. Very, very appropriate. Went from a borderline top 10 tight end for me to outside the top 15, you know, and so just the volume is just crushing, you know, so this was, you know, and what we've illustrated you you more so than anyone top two in targets on a team no way that's going to be the case now unless there's an injury to one of the top two guys so the best tight end season again for a uh ryan tannahill tight end

during the a.j brown era was john new smith 65 targets 41 catches 488 yards and eight touchdowns you know so if he scores a lot of touchdowns, then I think Chig will be fine, but it's going to be very difficult for him to break out. So I think he's not a bad number two tight end to take a flyer on if you draft two. But if you're going to draft one, I would rather go Greg Doltrich. I'd rather go Tyler Higby.

I'd rather go Gerald Everett. I just think all those guys are a little bit better right now than Chig Okonkwo. And I'm just going to finish with a comment from our chat, and I think your thoughts, whoever, you listener, your thoughts on this comment is going to really influence your drafting of Titans.

Hopkins from Alpha Jerk, great name there. Hopkins isn't a difference maker anymore. I don't believe that to be the case, but I could understand people thinking that. Do you think, where are you on that?

Hopkins isn't a difference maker anymore. Yeah, I would lean more toward that than him being a difference maker, but that doesn't mean he can't be a starting fantasy receiver. So there are two different things at play there. So he's going to make a difference for the Titans. He's going to make a difference for fantasy manager. He's going to win you a couple of weeks. I mean, he's going to have some still very quality, productive weeks. But again, age is a factor. I think volume is a factor and look, it's just, there's a reason why he was free. You know,

I know the Cardinals wanted to save money and, and, and understandably. So nobody traded for him. It took a long time for somebody to, you know, for the, for the right situation to match up. There's a reason. I think Kansas city, he wanted to go there. Buffalo wanted to go there. Why didn't they want to go get him? You know, for the right situation to match up. There's a reason I think Kansas City, he wanted to go there. Buffalo wanted to go there. Why didn't they want to go get him? You know, money matters. Again, I know that's a huge part of it.

But, you know, there's a reason why he goes to a team like Tennessee and the teams he were deciding between were Tennessee and New England. Well, it certainly makes the AFC South a lot more interesting. Jamie, thank you for your time tonight. We will talk to you tomorrow at 11 a.m. Eastern with some more Hopkins reaction, Joe Mixon reaction, Evan Ingram reaction, and quarterback tears. We'll talk to you then on Fantasy Football Today.