Fantasy Football Today - Debating Players 13-24 in the Rankings; Mailbag! (06/17 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 17, 2022

We (hopefully) entertain you with a brief rap and some random trivia before getting into the consensus rankings. On Monday, we revealed players 1-12. Today it's players 13-24 beginning with Stefon Diggs (6:00). Does he have WR1 upside? Next is Aaron Jones (8:15) and his former teammate Davante Adams (12:30). We talk a lot about Adams and how to evaluate him on a new team ... Does Mark Andrews (21:10) deserve to be a Top 16 pick? What is the upside and what is the downside for D'Andre Swift (26:55)? How concerned are we about Leonard Fournette's weight gain (30;50)? ... CeeDee Lamb vs. Deebo Samuel (34:50). Mike Evans vs. Keenan Allen vs. Tyreek Hill (40:15). And which RB claimed the 24th spot in our consensus rankings (42:40)? ... Your Apple Podcast questions (49:10) and your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Happy Friday, everybody. We're talking about players 13 through 24 in our consensus rankings. Only four running backs in our round two. A lot of running backs, obviously, in round one. One tight end and seven wide receivers. And as you might guess, no quarterbacks. If you look at the quarterbacks who have been going in round two in recent years,

mostly disappointing picks. Don't be the person to take a quarterback that early in a one QB league. Adam, Dave, and Heath on this Friday. Happy early Father's Day, guys. Big plans this weekend? Sure. Probably going to hang out with my kids

because that's what fathers do and uh probably gonna have my son grill me a fantastic wagyu steak wow dave i wow goo not wow i gotta tell you my steak rule i don't eat steak unless it's at a steakhouse yeah but you you you might change that if your son becomes as good of a grilling and marinating chef as mine. I guess so. I feel like if you're going to do steak, you got to do it super right. It's funny. I pretty much only eat steak at home.

I never go to steakhouse. I never eat steak. You just don't get steak. Yeah, I never really get steak, which is a shame. I pretty much never pay somebody else for steak. That's probably an economically smart decision there. Yeah, I'm getting to that point. All right, so we're going to talk about players 13 through 24.

Monday, we did 1 through 12. I got a random trivia question for you that really doesn't matter, but I found interesting. And we're going to start with a little musical number here, Dave. Shall we? What do you think? So this comes from Taco in Seoul, Korea. And he wrote...

I think you got to like... Go ahead, go ahead, go ahead. Yeah, yeah. We talked about players with big gaps. Big gaps last week in their draft value. And we like big gaps and we cannot lie. So without any further ado, Dave, these lyrics courtesy of Steve or Taco,

whatever you want to call him. His real name is Steve. Go ahead. Taco Steve? Mm-hmm. Taco Steve. I like big gaps that I cannot lie. Some other judges might deny.

When a player walks in with an itty-bitty range and an ADP two strains, I say, fellas. Yeah. Fellas. Yeah. Should I wait until the fifth? Hell yeah. So break it.

Break it. Rebake that ADP. Players got gap. That's it. Yeah. There you go. What do you think, Heath? Just laughing at us?

No, I'm not laughing at all. He's emotionless. Bad applause. I think we just did for Sir Mix a lot what Stranger Things did for Kate Bush. I have no idea. Oh, is that who sings that song?

Okay. Yeah, I never heard that song. You're welcome, Sir Mix. There you go. Random trivia question of the day. In your opinion, how many wide receivers do you think catch 50 passes? Oh, goodness. 50? Yeah, how many 50 catch receivers do you think we have? I'm going to say 99.

I'm going to say... A year? I'm going to say 64. It's about 50. Really? Over the last four years, it's been... I'm stunned. I'm stunned. 99. Do you's about 50 over the last four years. It's been done. I'm done.

I think three receivers per team catch 50 passes. It seems like that around the league sometimes, but maybe I just have a grandiose idea of what the passing games are like in the NFL. You like big stats and you cannot lie. I make up my own stats. Richard stats. Yeah.

So I thought that was, I don't know. Just why so I thought that was... I don't know. Why did you think that was interesting? I just never would have gotten that. Because of my answer. He got my answer out of it, and that made it interesting. How many wide receivers have 60 catches every year? Probably about... 85?

Yeah, 104. Alright, let's get to the show here. Looking at round two picks over the last three years using fantasy football calculator ADP. Just go back a little historically. Who has been better, the running backs or the wide receivers, taken in round two in the last three seasons? Well, in 2019, I would say it was clearly the running backs.

In 2020, it was a big edge to the wide receivers. And last year, you tell me. Najee Harris, Jonathan Taylor, Antonio Gibson, Joe Mixon, Clyde Edwards-Ziller, or Stefan Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf, and Justin Jefferson. I'm going to go with the running backs. I'll give it to you again. Najee, Taylor, Gibson, Mixon, and CEH.

So I'd call that three wins, a push, and a loss. Yeah, but three huge wins. Three mega stars. And then you got Diggs, Hopkins, Ridley, Metcalf, and Jefferson. So that's one win two pushes and a loss yeah it's a slam dunk running backs have won two of the last three years in the second round the bigger thing is for me

with these first two rounds because you're right it goes back and forth like just if the industry or drafters in your league are acting like one is definitely the best bet over the other, then that will dictate your strategy.

He'll draft the other one. Sure. I didn't go back four years. Four years ago, it may have been the wide receivers. Who knows? But it's hard to predict. Okay. So let's go to our consensus rankings, guys.

And you guys can give me the lowdown. Why is this guy where he's ranked? Pluses, minuses, upside, downside. Stefan Diggs is number 13 in the rankings. Heath, give us a little scouting report on Stefan Diggs and why he should be 13th. I've got him 15th, so I don't think he should. No, I'm not going to do that with every player.

He's the number one wide receiver for one of the best past offenses in the nfl and like that's that's just about all you need to know he's he's got wide receiver one overall upside and really probably barring some sort of catastrophic injury a pretty safe floor we saw in 2020 with the bills he led the league in catches and yards and probably had a little bit of bad touchdown luck, only scored eight of them. Last year, efficiency dropped quite a bit, but he scored more touchdowns. I think somewhere in that 100 catch, 1,200 yards, seven touchdowns is about his floor, which is pretty fantastic.

He was wide receiver three in 2020. He was wide receiver 10 in 2021. He was wide receiver three in 2020 he was wide receiver 10 in 2021 he was wide receiver 11 in 2018 so i just he's a real good player when we see him ranked fifth or fourth among wide receivers maybe that's putting him a tad too much toward his ceiling compared to the floor but but I don't care. I think that there's only a select few number of receivers who have a floor of, call it, 80, 1,107. And I think Diggs is one of those guys. You're going to take him early. He's going to be a top 15 pick. But does he not have wide receiver one upside?

I would think he certainly does. Sure he does. He does. Yes, his ceiling could be, and he's already talked about it, leading the league in catches and yards. And instead of having eight touchdowns, he has 13. He just has a monster year because Josh Allen has a monster year. And you're thrilled to have him. And no one will look back and say,

ah, gee whiz, what a reach at the time. Because no one really says, ah, gee whiz anymore. It's not 1962. Ah, gee whiz, what a reach at the time. Because no one really says, ah, gee whiz anymore. It's not 1962. Ah, gee whiz. Okay, so fantasy football yesterday, Dave. So okay, that's Stefan Diggs. Let's go to our next player here, and that would be

Aaron Jones. Before we get to Aaron Jones, though, I just want to tell you about our other podcasts. We do have other podcasts in the CBS Sports Network. CBS Sports, we have the best podcasts. We have grown so much over the years. And we've got, obviously, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Today in 5, Fantasy Baseball Today, Fantasy Baseball Today in 5. We've got a combat sports podcast called Morning Combat.

We've got golf. We've got college football. We've got college basketball. We've got soccer. We've got a women's soccer podcast. So all of the main sports, we don't have a baseball podcast, but we do have fantasy. So you can check it all out, cbssports.com slash podcasts. You can listen to them there. You can subscribe, cbssports.com slash podcasts. You can also find them on the app as well. The CBS Sports app is awesome. Download that. Now, Aaron Jones checking in at number 14.

And yeah, I mean, this is PPR. How much of a difference is there in where you guys would draft Aaron Jones in PPR versus half versus non? Is he format dependent, Dave? He probably should be a little more format dependent than I have him ranked. I've got him still top 10 in non PPR because I still think he can be

effective as a runner. I am a little bit worried about how much work he gets from week to week. We had a six game sample size last year where, uh, AJ Dillon average 14 touches per game, Aaron Jones. And this is after the Aaron Jones injury. This isn't over the course of the season.

This is when they started to involve A.J. Dillon more. It included the playoffs. Jones, 14.7 touches per game, but a lot more came in the passing game. So I think having him higher in PPR does make sense because we're expecting him to be among the team leaders in receptions and targets this year. But he could lose out on touchdowns to Dylan who kind of takes over that role from Jones this year.

Yeah. I just, I think he's like, it's really underrated the chance that he just leads all running backs and receptions and yards receiving this year. And maybe there will be someone in green Bay that steps up and takes over that number one role that I just, man,

his, his receiving upside is pretty insane. What is it? Um, is it 60 catches seven? Oh no. I think it's a lot higher than that. I think it might be a hundred catches.

Aaron Jones has been second on the team and in targets three straight years. And that's with a guy in Devante Adams who has averaged more than 10 targets per game for straight years. Obviously gone. So, you know, we've seen some running backs get to that 100 catch mark. Not many. McCaffrey, Forte. So you think 100 catches, you said, Heath, is in the realm of possibility for Aaron Jones? Not expected, but...

I think it's in the realm of possibility for Aaron Jones. Not expected, but... I think it's in the realm of possibility, yes. Yeah, and he has maybe a somewhat similar profile to DeAndre Swift, who's a few spots down in the consensus rankings, but Swift is the next running back in our rankings. Who do you guys like better? I know consensus has Jones ahead, but who do you individually like better, Jones or Swift?

Jones. Jones in non-PPR, in full PPR, I think I've got, I'm double-checking now, but I think I've got Swift a notch ahead. That's interesting, because I feel like I would flip that. Because I think Swift has the higher upside for catches. I just don't know if that's true without Anthony Lynn. The running back targets were not the same when Dan Campbell took over the offense and now Ben Johnson's taking over the offense and they brought in DJ Chark and Jamison Williams, which indicates to me that maybe they'd like to throw the ball downfield a little more than they did with Anthony Lynn calling plays. I don't know. I mean, I love Swift, but I don't know that he has. I was a pretty big fan of the Anthony Lynn scheme for Swift, and that's not there anymore. I like that he's been

used a lot more in the passing game so far this offseason, and maybe it's just because it's OTAs and there's no point in running the ball in OTAs, but word is that they're going to line him up all over the place and let him run around and try and get those matchups against linebackers and safeties. He's coming up in just a little

bit, so stay tuned for the DeAndre Swift discussion and some serious Acer statting on DeAndre Swift. They got some good stuff there with the Anthony Lynn stuff. Devontae Adams. So it goes Stefan Diggs 13, Aaron Jones 14. Devontae Adams is 15th in the consensus rankings. And the question

I have for you guys is when you do your research on a player and you come up with your opinion on a player, whatever your process may be, how do you do it for Devante Adams going to a new team where, you know, in the last three years in Green Bay, there hasn't even been a second guy who's gotten 70 targets. you know darren waller should destroy that and maybe even renfro who knows you know the touchdowns between derrick carr and aaron rogers are just so different how do you how do you even evaluate and predict on davante adams heath what what's your process there um it's uh not really um well i guess it is mathematical but I basically just gave DeAndre or Devante Adams 90 percent of his typical target share he's been over 10 targets per game I think

each of the past three seasons and I've got him at nine targets per game with the Raiders and I cut his efficiency by about 10 percent as well um because of the downgrade from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr. Now doing both of those things, he's still wide receiver four for me and number 13 overall. So it's not like it has an enormous impact, but there's more risk. His role in Green Bay was pretty set. I think his ceiling is probably now what his expectation there was, and the floor is considerably lower. Steve, how about you? How did you approach coming up with an opinion

and a ranking for Devontae Adams? The first thing I did was I thought about what went wrong for Derek Carr because he's consistently been outside of the top 15 in points per game at quarterback, and it's been the red zone work. He's needed help in the red zone more than anything else. Hello, here's Devante Adams, who's been one of the more prolific

red zone targets in the NFL over the last three, four seasons. They also played together at Fresno State. This isn't going to be like Tyree Kill and Tua Tungabailoa, where they've never played together. They've got to get their chemistry down. I feel like when a receiver and a quarterback have played together before, it doesn't take them much time to get up to speed on developing chemistry and rhythm. And I think that's, what's going to happen in two years together at Fresno state and granted it's Fresno state and it's college. And it's a long time ago,

3,031 yards between the two of them, 38 touchdowns between the two of them. I think car knows how to throw to Devonta Adams. I think Adams knows exactly what he's going to get from Derek Carr. And so I'm a little more optimistic. I agree with Heath in terms of the targets, but I think in terms of touchdowns and everything else, I think that he's going to get a lot. I think he's going to be really good.

And I don't see many people saying, well, Derek Carr sucks. He's going to completely ruin Devontae Adams. I think people will see that Derek Carr isn't really that terrible of a quarterback. He just needs an additional target on top of Darren Waller. Waller's been getting a little banged up and hasn't been as good as he was when he broke out.

So there's a huge opportunity here for Devontae Adams to be loaded up with volume and one of the biggest parts of the raiders offense if there's a significant risk for adams it's the touchdowns right um because he's played with the quarterback and aaron rogers who basically his entire career has been towards the very top of the active leaderboard and career touchdown rate i think it's six 6. 6.5, somewhere in that range, most years and for his career. Adams has a 7% touchdown rate,

which is about as high as I will project any wide receiver. And I'm like, Derek Carr has a career 4.3, and he was 3.7 last year. Now, he didn't have Devontae Adams. Right. But he did have Darren Waller and Hunter Renfro. He's had one season above 5.2% in his career. I'd like to know the odds on him being better than 5.2%. You can't bet on it, but walk into a sportsbook and say,

what are the odds that he finishes with a touchdown rate six percent let me tell you what odds i would give you let me see what i've got i'm projecting i'm gonna take it it does you as long as they're not like minus 130 because i think i think league average is like 4.7 yeah i'm gonna go under i'm gonna go under how many can we do touchdown passes instead of touchdown rate because i think it's a little more digestible for the listeners. And that you might be able to bet on. Well, yeah, but I mean, yes, if we knew exactly how many passes he was going to throw.

If the number was 30 touchdowns, would you take the over or the under? I've got him at 28 and a half, so I would definitely take the under because that's for 17 games and he might miss time. But I've got him at exactly a 5% touchdown rate. So if Devontae doesn't score a lot of touchdowns, I wonder if that means that Waller and Renfro do. Because the one thing that's a little bit different for Devontae now than in Green Bay is that there are some serious weapons

that Derek Carr can just shrug his shoulders and say, okay, they're going to double-team Devontae Adams on his fade route on the left side of the end zone. I can look over the middle and see Renfro, or I can look to my right and see Darren Waller. It's going to be a pick-your-poison situation. As long as Carr makes the right read, he's going to get to 30 touchdowns this year. I've got him as a top 12 quarterback. All right, I'll just say this kind of hot take, and you guys tell me if you agree or disagree. I cannot think of one good reason to draft Devontae Adams ahead of Stephon Diggs.

I think you have him ranked ahead of Diggs, Heath. I do. Obviously, you disagree with me, but I just can't justify it. There's just too many things working against Adams, and Diggs is so solid.

I think the reason is because I think over the past couple of seasons, if you did, maybe you think it's a bigger than 10% downgrade, but I don't believe Stephon Diggs has been within 10% of Devontae Adams in either of the past two seasons. In terms of fantasy points?

In terms of fantasy points, yeah. So I would just look at yards. And was he within 10% in yards? Well, he led the league in yards once, so yes. Yeah, so I think I could easily see... In fact, if you're asking me who's going to score more touchdowns, Diggs or Adams, I'm going to take Diggs. But I will say this about Adams.

There have been two years recently... Devontae Adams has been incredible in touchdowns. He's got 10 or more in five of the last six seasons. And there have been two seasons recently where Aaron Rodgers threw something like 25 touchdown passes, had back-to-back bad touchdown seasons. And in one of those years,

Devontae Adams had double-digit touchdown catches. And in the other year, he had like six. So he has shown that he can, he caught five, okay, can... He caught five... Okay, sorry. He caught five in 2019, Devontae Adams,

and Rodgers only threw 26 touchdowns. He caught 13, though, in 2018 when Rodgers threw 25 touchdowns. So he has shown that, that he can get that. I'm going to see if I change your mind because last year, Devontae Adams had 300 more yards than Stephon Diggs in one fewer game. And two years ago,

when Diggs led the league in receiving, that was only because Devontae Adams missed time. Adams actually averaged more receiving yards per game two years ago as well. 10% more?

10% more? Over the past two years, yes, because he was 20% more last year. It was 20% each of the last year. He's been at least four fantasy points per game better than Diggs each of the last two years, yes, because he was 20% more last year. It was 20% each of the last year. He's been at least four fantasy points per game better than Diggs each of the last two years, including yards. No, but this is just fantasy points in PPR. Four plus points better.

And the year that Diggs led the league in catches and yards, he was five points better per game. I mean, it's such a mystery how he and Tyreek Hill are going to do on new teams. I don't think it's as big of a mystery with Adams as it is with Tyreek. Do you guys remember how Brandon Marshall... I feel pretty good about Adams. Remember how Brandon Marshall did when he went to new teams?

Just throwing it out there. Because we don't get a ton of incredible receivers going to new teams like this. Right. Brandon Marshall... DeAndre Hopkins did okay. Hopkins did very well. Hopkins in his first year didn't really well yep um but it was a little touchdown dependent right uh no that was why they got him no that

was your two he actually didn't have the touchdowns in your one he did early on didn't he i think he did and then he just ended up just catching his way to good numbers he only had six all year if i remember right yeah uh brandon marshall was incredible two of his best seasons came when he changed teams went to the bears went to the the Bears and went to the Jets. He went to the Dolphins earlier in his career. He didn't have a good year, but we've seen great receivers change teams and have great years for fantasy. Let's go to our next player here.

That is Mark Andrews. Mark Andrews is 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th. Mark Andrews 16th. Dave, your thoughts? I am worried about what this offense 14, 15, 16th. Mark Andrews, 16th. Dave, your thoughts. I am worried about what this offense is going to look like this year.

I think the Ravens, and there have been beat reporters saying the same thing. The Ravens are trying to turn back the clock to 2019. They want to lean on their defense. They want to lean on their run game. They want to lean on Lamar Jackson to run more, throw less, be more close. Be more close? I talk for a living. They want to be around 50- Jackson to run more, throw less, be more close.

I talk for a living. They want to be around 50-50 on the pass-run ratio. Last year, they were like 63% pass. And Mark Andrews was real good with Lamar Jackson. He was insane without Lamar Jackson. So I have a hard time believing that Mark Andrews is going to come close to what he did last year, but I think he can still be better than what he was in 2019. So maybe like a half step better than that. So that's why I've got him as my number two tight end.

I'm going to let other people take him toward the end of round two. He might be my pick if I'm picking on the turn at 24, 25, but this is too early for you. This is 16th. I'm not going to take him there. There are too many other running backs I'd rather take the chance on and enough wide receivers I'd rather take the chance on.

Plus Kelsey. I will just say the 2019-2020 combination of those two seasons, his 17-game pace was 72 catches, 910 yards, and 10 touchdowns. Which year? These were the... What was it? 2019 and 2020,

not counting last year at all. The two years before. The only tight end who scored more points than that last year was Travis Kelsey. Yeah, but did you know that Travis Kelsey

every single year... And Travis Kelsey is going in round did you know that Travis Kelsey every single year, and Travis Kelsey is going in round one, so that's why he's not part of today's discussion. Travis Kelsey every single year finishes as a top 12 wide receiver per game. Mark Andrews did that once, and that was last year. He wasn't even top 20 those two seasons.

So if you are comparing him, you know, it's just how good do you think he's going to be compared to what he was in 2019? Dave said he'll be better better a half step better, but he wasn't even a top 20 wide receiver, uh, in those years. And if he's not a top 20 wide receiver,

he can be number two tight end all day. He doesn't deserve to be the 16th pick, but you obviously, he, if you think he's going to be better than that. Yeah. I mean, I've,

I think I've said enough over the last year and a half about Mark Andrews, um, arguing in his favor. He's been an elite tight end. He is an elite tight end. He's the number one pass catcher on his own team. I don't know what more he needs to do.

I guess maybe if he does it again, then we can talk about how he won't do it a third time. And you're good with him at 16? I like him at eight. Like him at eight. Okay, does it matter? Last thing on Andrews, then we're going to move on because I don't want the same thing to happen on Monday.

Does it matter to anybody that he had a 23% target share with Lamar Jackson and a 23.2% with Jackson, 29.4% without Jackson? Does that matter to anybody? It matters a ton. Go ahead, Heath. Yeah, I mean, I think, again, Does that matter to you? It matters a ton. Go ahead, Heath. Yeah. I mean, I think, again, Travis Kelsey is probably the only tight end

that's going to have a better than 23% target share. Before we go any further. But it's the 29% target share that sent his numbers into the stratosphere last year. You said that 75 catches, 967 yards, 12 touchdown touchdowns 10 touchdowns right but i'm play along with me if he finishes with those numbers that would be really good right you'd be thrilled with that it's the tight end on your fantasy team but he would finish 23rd according to last year in ppr among wide receivers with that stat line because that's what DK Metcalf had last year

yeah but we both think he's going to be better than he was in 2019 no this is that's what DK was in 2021 right but the numbers I gave you were Mark Andrews from 2019 through 2020 right and so these are number and so the numbers I just gave you are numbers that are better from those two years right 75 967 and 12 okay i can give you these numbers too that was number 23 in a ppr per game making me sound like i hate mark andrews which isn't my intention but in the 11 games with the way hurting yourself no i mean look in the 11 games with lamar jackson he was you know if you take his points per game, those 11 games, compare them to wide receivers for the full season, he was number 20 in PPR. That's with Lamar Jackson.

I mean, he was so much better after Lamar Jackson. Honestly, I gave a similar stat a year ago about Mark Andrews with and without Nick Boyle. Nick Boyle, yep. I remember that. You're on Boyle's Nick Boyle, yep. I remember that. You're on Boyle's back. And two rookie tight ends, too. Because he started running more routes and getting more targets after Boyle got hurt mid-season in 2020.

He's not going to go down because Boyle's back. I know, but that's what I'm saying. I'm trying to learn a lesson here and just say, hey, look, Mark Andrews is awesome. You can spin it any way you want. He did what he did. I wouldn't take him 16th, but I'm not

trying to crap all over. I'm just giving some stats there. That's a problem sometimes with stats, partial season stats and things like that. For a full season, he was amazing. 1,361 yards and nine touchdowns. I believe it's 14.4 PPR points per game with Lamar, 23.2 without.

All right, DeAndre Swift is next, 17th on the list. DeAndre Swift. Dave, you pretty high on him, it seems? I'm nervous about the injuries, of course, and, of course, the report that he's bulked up. That's never good to hear but i think they're i think they're going to try and get him like i said more involved in the passing game and try and feature him as much as a traditional runner if not a little bit more and the additions of charke and jameson williams are a double-edged sword for swift yes it's bad

it signals that the Lions want to throw downfield more, but they're also going to try and force defenses to keep the safety out of the box. If they can have the threat of a downfield pass, even with Jared Goff at quarterback, it could open things up and make DeAndre Swift more efficient. So I'm willing to take the chance on him. Before he got hurt last year, he was averaging over 17 PPR points per game. And I can find that in round two at a position that's going to dry up quick. I will take the chance on it, and I will keep a very close eye on who might be the number two running back in Detroit.

If it's Jamal Williams, I'm not going to be excited. I kind of like how Craig Reynolds ran last year. I wonder if he bests Jamal Williams and becomes a guy that I can literally take in round 15 because no one else is looking for him and just throw him on my bench for the three or four weeks that Swift misses. Yeah. Before his injury, first 10 games, he was the number nine running back per game in non PPR, number six and a half and number four in full PPR. I said that a little bit incorrectly it's not that he was in that stretch it's that if you take his points per game in that stretch he would have

finished over the full season he would have finished as the number four running back in full ppr deandre swift in his first 10 games heath what's the downside could he be does he have big bus potential little bus potential what do you think for swift well he has big bus potential because he's not shown us the ability to get through an NFL season healthy yet. He is in higher injury risk than the average running back, I think. But then also, running between the tackles or running the ball, he did not grade out very well last year.

A lot of his fantasy production came from the fact that he caught a bunch of passes in garbage time and if they don't throw their running backs as much as they did and he doesn't have a lot of success running the football then yeah there's there's big bust potential and how concerned are you about the anthony lynn stuff we'll just finish with this i am that's the reason i don't have swift in the first round compared like i i probably would if anthony lynn was still there okay i if you want to be optimistic about it you know swift only played three healthy games before after anthony lynn got fired and anthony

lynn was the play caller he was the offensive coordinator in the play caller and he has a history with austin eckler with Swift of throwing to his running backs. And that is why we, you know, we, we saw Swift has this great cash potential. And, um,

I will say that Swift didn't have the same target share in those three healthy games after Lynn got fired, but it still was 21.7%. After Swift got hurt, then the running back targets went way down. And then Swift came back at the last three games and wasn't playing as much, wasn't himself. It's possible that

he still would have gotten a ton of catches. You'd take a 21.7% target share. We'd love it. That's what it was before his injury and after the Anthony Lynn firing. Heath's right about the between the tackles running.

He was horribly inefficient. His rush EPA was negative 0.3, which was over a hundredth among running backs. It was terrible. Ranked poorly yards before contact, after contact, explosive plays. Even avoided tackles was under 10%.

That's bad. But this is just what? Up the middle? Strictly between the tackles. Between avoided tackles was under 10%. That's bad. But this is just what? Up the middle? Strictly between the tackles. Between the tackles. Runs to the A and B gaps, specifically. All right, Leonard Fournette. Let's do Leonard Fournette. Sure, sure, sure. I mean, no. That's a strike I didn't consider with

Swift. I knew he wouldn't be good running between the tackles, but that's really not good. All right, Leonard Fournette. Yeah. running between the tackles, but that's really not good. All right, Leonard Fournette. So, yeah, look, if he has the same role as last year, then you take him at 18. I think I've been giving the wrong ADPs, no? Stephon Diggs, 13.

Aaron Jones, 14. This is an ADP. This is consensus ranking, sorry. Devontae Adams, 15. Mark Andrews, 16. DeAndre Swift, 17 leonard fournette 18 there we go leonard fournette 18th overall do you think he will have the same role that's number one and number two how concerned are you about his weight gain heath go i i don't like

the fact that he has to do something in the next two months to get into football shape i wish that he was currently in football shape, but he was pretty honest about it. And I think he is a guy whose weight fluctuates in the off season is what he said. And he knows he has to do the work. There's, there's quite,

I, I, I expect as long as he is in shape and healthy, he will have the same role. But he's a, what? 27 year old running back who has literally never played a full season's worth of games

and is currently not in good shape. So there's significant reason to wonder whether he'll get that role and whether he'll hold up to it. But I don't think with Tom Brady playing quarterback that Rashad White's going to take his job or take even the the valuable portion

of his job okay dave are you okay with four net at 18 i'm mostly okay with it although since i had it open i decided to check on four nets runs between the tackles swift was better in a lot of ways and swift was terrible swift had a better rushing average uh he was better in yards before contact per rush they were about equal after contact the explosive rate was in swift's favor uh the avoided tackle rate for net had that he was at 12 that still stinks but it's better than what swift had but these stats might not matter it's the opportunity that matters and maybe that's something i could have said for Swift. Bottom line with Fournette is that I don't see anybody else on this roster taking short yardage goal line work.

This is an offense that's going to throw a lot. They might need to run the ball a little bit more than normal because of the questions that they have in their passing game. But Fournette's the guy that Brady relies on. I fully expect him to be in good shape by the time that late July rolls around. Okay with him for now as a number two, or a second-round running back. Let's take a break here.

When we come back, we'll give you players 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, and 24 in our consensus rankings. Then we're going to read your emails, your Apple Podcast questions, right after this break on Fantasy Football Today. What does possible sound like for your business? questions right after this break on Fantasy Football today. 1,400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum.

Welcome back to our Friday edition of FFT. CD Lamb is next. Yeah, thank you. Appreciate it. So much time. All right, we're going to go two minutes per player here so we can save some time for the listener questions. CeeDee Lamb is 19th.

And Deebo Samuel is 20. Knowing what I know about you guys, I'm surprised it's this close. I would have thought for sure you'd like Lamb better than Samuel. Like, clearly. I have Samuel ahead of Lamb. Yeah, I guess I don't know you that well. I think that's the reason why it's so close. Yeah, I like Lamb over Samuel.

I've noticed in the past couple of drafts that I've done that like CeeDee Lamb is apparently a round one, two turn pick. And I've got him as a round two, three turn pick. And I think that's the reason that, uh, he's ranked so low here. And I, I'm trying to think at him, like, I, I guess you would say that because you think with Amari Cooper gone, we would just assume that CD lamb gets that target share and Debo Samuel, what he did is not, um, reliable. And so we would have him regressing.

Is that right? Basically, yeah. I would like to do that. I would be more comfortable doing it if A, CeeDee Lamb had shown the ability to earn that type of target share in his first two years in the NFL, or B, the Dallas Cowboys offense under K moore had been the type that gave one wide receiver 26 27 28 percent of the

targets but they haven't they threw the ball a bunch of times the past couple of years to cedric wilson and noah brown and like that three four j this year it'll be James Washington and Tolbert, I guess. But those guys have had a big role in the offense. They're not a Devontae Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, throw it to a guy 30% of the time. So that's why I haven't projected it. They could change this year, though. Don't forget about Dalton Schultz. He took a lot of targets away from all the receivers in Dallas last year. And that's a guy that we expect to do it again.

It was a tale of two halves for CeeDee Lamb last year, and that's a guy that we expect to do it again. It was a tale of two halves for CeeDee Lamb last year. When Gallup didn't play the first nine weeks of the season, Lamb's target share was 22.6%. His target per route run rate was 23.6%. That's really good. He averaged 8.3 targets per game, and almost 80% of his snaps were out wide. Gallup comes back. CeeDee Lamb moves into the slot. 51% of the snaps were out wide. Gallup comes back. CeeDee Lamb moves into the slot. 51% of the snaps were in the slot.

His target share cratered 15%. 19.7% of targets were outrun. 6.6 targets per game. And his fantasy production obviously took a huge hit. The thought is now that with Amari Cooper gone and with Michael Gallup not a lot to be ready to go for the start of the season, CeeDee Lamb can at least begin the year hogging those targets. And even when Gallup comes back, if Tolbert isn't ready, if James Washington is James Washington, we will still see a high target

volume for CeeDee Lamb. And just the focus of the passing game is altered a little bit in Dallas because there isn't somebody they consider as reliable as Amari Cooper on the field. I think they just, they, they target lamb a lot more. So I'm thinking he's got a shot at getting around 150 targets over the balance of the season. I've got him at 22% target share right now, which is what you said he was for his good stretch last year, right? First nine games. Yeah. Um, that's, that puts him 14th amongst wide receivers and targets for me. How many have you projected for him? 138.

Okay. So I'm not too far off from you. I'm a little more optimistic. But I think he's a playmaker. I think he's the type of receiver that can win in contested catch situations. I think he can break away from coverage. I think he's a good route runner. I think he's got great hands, crazy catch radius.

And that's the, that's the question I guess that I have is like, if the CD lamb breakout happens, which of the things from his first two years is going to change? Does he become a huge target guy? Yes. Which like 138 over 17 wouldn't really be that, but does he actually start scoring touchdowns at a high rate? Cause he hasn't done that yet.

Does he become a big yards per target guy? He's been good, very good in that area. But where is CeeDee Lamb going to start being elite? It's a good question. I think you're probably hoping for 10 touchdowns. He had 6 last year.

Let's look at some raw numbers here. Deebo Samuel and CeeDee Lamb had the same amount of targets last season. They both had 120. And Deebo Samuel turned that into 303 more yards. He was so much better. He was better than everybody, you know. His yards after catch was unbelievable, but I think he's led the NFL in yards after catch

in two of the last three seasons, or he's been close. But then you have the rushing totals as well. But here's another raw number. The Cowboys threw the ball 133 more times than the 49ers last year. And Debo and Lamb had the same number of targets. Yeah, but now they got Trey Lance coming in.

What's the gap going to be this year? I don't know, man. All right. Good debate there. Good debate. How much rushing does Debo have this year? Because that's the sticking point with him is that he doesn't want to do that as much. Is it?

I think so. Unless they're going to pay him crazy money to be a running back and wide receiver. I've got him at 43 carries. How many touchdowns? Four. Okay. Let's go next, next, next, next, next. Mike Evans and Keenan Allen are 21 and 22

in the consensus rankings. Very, very different players. Mike Evans and Keenan Allen. I'll throw Tyreek Hill in there as well because he is 23. Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill. This group here, how do you guys rank them?

Evans, Allen, Hill. Allen, Evans, Hill. I've got them Hill, Evans, Allen. So complete opposites. Well, at least you guys have Evans second. So it's Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, and Tyreek Hill. Do you feel strongly... That's the consensus, Arang.

Do you feel strongly about one of them? Like, oh, I'm so excited to draft this one. No, I look at them as guys who are likely to lead their teams and targets in the case of evans whatever he lacks in terms of explosiveness he can make up foreign touchdowns kind of have to hope for the same thing with keenan allen and with tyra kill you're just hoping that he he breaks a lot of catch and runs in this offense and makes up for two of his shortcomings. But he's got that explosiveness to him

to do it. I think one of these three wide receivers will probably finish top five. One of them's going to be a high-end number two and one of them's going to bust. Who's the safest? Evans, Allen, Tyreek Hill. In full PPR, it's Allen. I think Heath's right.

Yeah. But I also think he I think he's right. Yeah. But I also think he's got the lowest ceiling. Yeah. We talked about both Allen and Evans in that wide receiver stats show last week where Allen's been a top 12 PPR wide receiver five straight years, I think. Something like that.

Yeah, he was 12th last year. And in four of six seasons, Evans has been top 15 or 16 in PPR. The catches aren't really close. He's been top 11 in four of the last six. In three of the last four, he's been top 11. Last year was 11. Per game?

Per game. Yeah, so they're both safe. Allen, historically, safer than Mike Evans in full PPR. All right, and then David Montgomery is number 24. Who is going to sneak in? You know, I just had the first pick in a draft a couple of days ago and had trouble with that pick. I had Jonathan Taylor one, and I went A.J. Brown, Nick Chubb,

and neither of them are in the consensus top 24. I think David Montgomery was on the board, but I think there's some tough calls to be made there. He was? Every time I have a pick in the first four rounds or the first four picks, David Montgomery is my highest ranked player

in the second round. I take Keenan Allen because I know that nobody's going to take David Montgomery in round two and I take Montgomery in round three. But that's smart. That's part of knowing your league and going into your draft and saying, all right,

I know the guy's picking after me. Don't value this player the same way I do. I'm going to take my chances that he makes it back to me. I may be having an undue influence on these top 24 intensive rankings because I know that I'm the only reason that C.D. Lamb's not hired.

I'm the only reason we're even talking about David Montgomery. I've got him 17th. Yeah, and his ADP in NFC, I think, is round four, David Montgomery. So whether you like him or not, you're going to like him in round four. All right, so what's the... Dave, what's the case against David Montgomery

because you don't have him in your top 24? The case against Montgomery is that the offensive line is bad. You're about to hear the phone ring for about a minute. Sorry about that. The offensive line is going to be bad. It's David Montgomery calling you right now. He's going to kick my ass. I'm a little worried about the workload for Montgomery.

I wonder if they use Khalil Herbert a little bit more. Obviously, Justin Fields is a runner. He could take some work away from him. And this is a low-scoring offense. I don't look at the Bears as being a team that's even league average in terms of total touchdowns, which means it's going to be hard for him to come through with a ton of numbers. If he stays healthy for 17 games, he will absolutely work his way to 1,300, 1,400 total yards, something like that but he might only have six or seven touchdowns to go with it i think he's going to be a number one-ish

fantasy running back but not one that i would take as a top 20 pick let's say i i am expecting and with this offense is a mystery but I am expecting a run-heavy offense that is heavily focused on the running backs. I think Khalil Herbert probably has a bigger role than most people think, but that's only because there's so many running back touches to go around that they can't give Montgomery 30 of them. I think Dave was a little low on what we should expect from David Montgomery if he plays 17 games, because i don't think this situation is worse

than it's been the past two seasons and his 17 game pace over the past two seasons is 1550 yards and 10 touchdowns um i think if he plays 17 names that's about what i would expect maybe a little better because i think they might be slightly more efficient but using he plays 17 game i had him and even more than that he Heath. I had about 1,600 total yards. There you go. Yeah, 1,610. You are correct. Yeah, 1,610 total yards per 17 games.

And he's been basically 1,700 one year, 1,500 one year. That's a really, really good floor, plus 50 catches. He's been on pace for 61 and 55 catches per 17 games in his last two seasons. What he's lacked are touchdowns and consistency. Let's be real here. He's been on pace for 61 and 55 catches per 17 games in his last two seasons. What he's lacked are touchdowns and consistency. Let's be real here. He's lacked consistency. Dave asked if he's going to play 17 games. I said I think DeAndre Swift is slightly more injury-prone

than the average running back. I think David Montgomery is slightly less injury-prone than the average running back. Yeah, I would say that Swift is elevated compared to Montgomery. But Montgomery's missed a few games each of the last few seasons. But I think Montgomery's not as injury prone or much of an injury risk is a better way to talk about it as McCaffrey or Dalvin Cook or probably even Kamara.

Do you feel like David Montgomery's true breakout potential is tied to Justin Fields? Because Dave's obviously worried about the offense. He said he doesn't think it's going to be an above-average offense. If Fields takes that next step that should help him, how much do you think it's tied to Justin Fields, Montgomery's true breakout potential to really be a home-run player? If Justin Fields has a good year he'll take montgomery with him because

that opens up the whole offense and it makes it harder to focus on you know this passive conservative slow run heavy approach that heath is projecting in fact that wouldn't be what would happen if fields is good i don't think they're going to play a slow methodical offense at all i think they'll try and tailor it to field strength, which is up-tempo a little bit, getting him in rhythm, and having him throw downfield. Yeah, I don't necessarily think it'll be slow. I just think it will be run heavy.

I think they'll be creative. But yeah, I think, what did you say Montgomery's ADP is right now, though? 43rd, I think. So I don't think Justin Fields needs to really get any better at all for montgomery to justify that idp no 41st he does he's also got a good projected schedule this year according to what i do he's top five so remember when he had that huge run in 2020 that's what helped him finish with 10 touchdowns and 1500 total in 2020. He played a lot of crappy defenses along the way.

Maybe he's got that again this year where he'll have some stretches against some bad defenses. The schedule is good for that. That would help him out if he's healthy for those games. He's missed time each of the last few years, but it's not like he's missed a ton of time. Cool. That's it. Let me recap for you, 13 through 24.

Stefan Diggs, Aaron Jones, Devontae Adams, Mark Andrews, DeAndre Swift, Leonard Fournette. You just helped me with that one. I'm going to move Montgomery over Devante. CeeDee Lamb, Debo Samuel, Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill, and David Montgomery. Some quick news and notes. According to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, the NFL League office is divided over how to handle Deshaun Watson. Mike McCarthy says Ezekiel Elliott is completely healthy. He hurt his knee in week four or five, I believe. Played almost all of the season with a partially torn ligament in his knee.

Traylon Burks is out for minicamp. So training camp is going to be pretty important for Traylon Burks, who most people, I would say, had as the top rookie-wide receiver in redraft leagues after the NFL draft. I will be adjusting that today. Did you see the video of Robert Woods? Running straight? No. No, not running straight. Running zigzags, running like some route running drill and making cuts and looking like Robert Woods. He might be a pretty big sleeper. Yeah.

He always has been. Yeah, but one thing, he's always had a pretty decent rushing total. That's kind of propped him up. Right. I don't know if they're going to do that in Tennessee. But either way, even if he took that away, he's a big sleeper. He's in the neighborhood of 20 fantasy points over the balance. They talked about doing that with Burks, though.

Makes more sense to do it with Burks than Woods, given their profiles. Well, Woods has done it for a long time. I know, but he's older and he's coming off of the knee injury. Maybe you don't want to put him in that type of a position. Joe Biscaglia of the athletic Bill's

Beat Writer said that Buffalo tight end O.J. Howard does not look good running routes. And I guess, you know, he's just not... Bruce Arians is not surprised.

The athletic specimen that he was. And that's interesting for Dawson Knox if you count O.J. Howard against Dawson Knox. So, we'll have time

to talk about that. Time for your Apple Podcast questions. This is from History Nick. Enough is enough. I've listened to you guys praising Cortland Sutton for too long. I'm in a 14-team half PPR,

very competitive league, and I dropped Sutton last year. But he was injured all year, and Russell Wilson this year. No, no, no. He's not very good, and Adam is reaching for him in the third round. That is so rookie.

Okay. I like the passion. Your thoughts? Defend yourself, Adam. No. Oh, I think, okay. I think he is good. I don't know if he's great,

but he's got a thousand yard year under his belt. And actually, if you look at Cortland Sutton, I'll try to find it fairly quickly. Before, without Jerry Judy last year and with Teddy Bridgewater as his quarterback, he had some really, really good weeks. Huge. 159 yards, 120 yards and a touchdown, 94 yards and a touchdown. He had some bad weeks too, but he was much, much much better before jerry judy came back the quarterback upgrade is undeniable and i i am fine with him in the in the third round and i think there's a chance

that he's going to be an absolute steal in the third round he's got i think top like eight ish wide receiver potential i don't think his top five potential there but it would have to be on the back of touchdowns but i do think that there's a possibility he scores a lot of them. I don't know if he's an absolute steal. It's a possibility. He'd have to finish top five. I think top eight he'd be a steal. Yeah, I'm still taking him in round four. I'm comfortable doing it then.

When he had that big year, well, big for him year in 2019, you know who his best quarterback was? No. Drew Locke. Oh, right, right. Sorry. I didn't know that. I was distracted. I just want to clarify. I took him with the second to last pick of round three. And basically round four. The guy who was drafting after me took Aaron Jones and Travis Kelsey with his first two picks. So I said, you were worried about him taking in a three receiver league. And it was a three receiver league and it was full PBR. So I think 35th for him

was not too early. Okay, next question on Apple Podcast. From Clint, Javante Williams in the 7th, Deebo Samuel in the 8th, or J.K. Dobbins in the 16th? You want to keep one?

Yep. Keep one for one year only. I can't keep Dobbins right now. The value is so great, but we just don't know what his situation is going to be. There was a positive report today. Good. I know he's doing some things at minicamp, but I wonder if he's got a little more ways to go than we've been led to believe.

I think he's still on a better pace than Gus Edwards. I think I'd go. I think I'd take Debo. I'd go Debo. But if you can wait until camp and Dobbins is there, then I'd take Dobbins. Sure. If Dobbins looks like,

you know, if he's spry moving around and no pop, then I think that's too, too good to ignore from Phil, the enforcer. Ooh. Yeah. Tough. Najee Harris Enforcer. Ooh. Yeah. Tough.

Najee Harris or Aaron Jones? First round pick. Who does he keep? Najee. Aaron Jones. Ooh. From Don Quixote23. Dynasty Startup.

Would you take Christian McCaffrey at 105 and DJ Moore in the fifth round? In a lot of mock drafts, that's been falling to me that way. I like both young, talented players, but I don't know if I want to be so reliant on the Panthers. It's a three-receiver league with three flex. I just updated my top 150.

DJ Moore in the fifth is an incredible value. I don't even understand how that's possible. So that would be great. I've got McCaffrey sixth, so I don't hate it. But more importantly, just because you have McCaffrey, don't let that discourage you from taking DJ Moore in the fifth round, because that's

insane. They played seven games together last year. DJ Moore had 15 plus PPR in three of them, including the first two to begin the year. Remember, Moore got off to a crazy good start last year. Yes. And then things kind of collapsed. Yeah, well, that's what happened with Sam Darnold.

He got off to a crazy good start. All right, this is from Sosa80. I got offered Elijah Moore and Devante Smith and a third round pick in 2023 for my first round pick this year, which will be Brees Hall. So I guess he has pick one. So would you give up

the number one pick in your dynasty draft for Elijah Moore, Devante Smith, and a third round pick in 2023? I don't think I would. I hate doing deals where I am giving up the best player in the deal. Unless you're getting really good players back.

That's a pretty significant, for me, a pretty significant win to get Smith and Moore, so I would do it. Wow. This is Tyler. Dave would not do it. This is Tyler from a half hour from a city that hates the Celtics. That's all over. Yeah, that's it.

That's gosh, too many cities. Hi, Bob, Larry, Bill, and Jason. We'll just say he's from Malibu. Those are Celtics. Yeah. The industry too low on Cam Akers this year. He's pretty excited. No, they're too high.

Yeah, we talked about him on the bus show yesterday. Tyler thinks that Akers... It's not wild to say that Akers has top five upside. I think it's wild. If he does, then who doesn't? Right. Almost every running back in the top 24 has a six-game stretch where they were awesome

right and he doesn't have the catch potential i do you guys think right because that just hasn't been a part of the offense lately and they have kyron williams and henderson i don't see it they did change offensive coordinators that doesn't it's and sean mcveigh changes his mind about their offensive strategy regularly yeah but i the recent history does not suggest it they threw a bunch of their running backs in girly's good years right oh yeah girly was they were making the most of girly the girly season until arthritis dragged him in like the demogorgon. This is from Sunny Sai. Almost like your eggs. Let's see. My question is about Zero slash Hero RB.

This year especially, it seems after 25 or so, the running back pool dries up really fast. That's totally up. That's your opinion, Sunny Sai. Some people are going to love it. Some people are not. With so much value at wide receiver in the later rounds, wouldn't it be smarter to draft heavy running back early and try to find value at wide receiver

later? If not, what is the argument for getting those top tier receivers early? What are some of the running back values you're looking for in the later rounds if you do decide to go zero or hero RB? I mean, this is my strategy pretty much every year. I love the receivers

that are available and i i see people going zero rb and i don't think they're they're crazy but i'd rather take my chances on certainly at least one stud running back early on and if the draft falls right two maybe even three with my first three or four picks just so i've got that position dominated on paper after the draft. And I think I can still find good receivers that can get me anywhere from 10 to 14 PPR points. Certainly in the middle rounds, if not off the waiver wire over the course of the season, I think it's easier to find those types of receivers. To find a receiver that's going to get me 17 plus PPR, that's going to be hard to do.

So I recognize that that's a problem. Receivers tend to stay healthier than running backs, but the running backs score more points than receivers. So this is just me saying that I'd rather take the chance on the running backs that can help me win a league versus the receivers who might be a little more steady, might not produce as many points. Yeah, it's like the argument for the zero or hero RB approach is that it's more common to find league winning running backs

on the waiver wire or in the late rounds than it is wide receivers. Oh, I don't think that's no, it's it's 100% true. It really wasn't necessarily last year. Last year was a little bit fluky because Cooper Cup was a fairly late pick. Jamar Chase was a late pick and Debo Samuel was a late pick. You are not going to find a lot of top 12 wide receivers

being drafted after round six. In the past four seasons, we have had one, two, one, and four top 12 wide receivers drafted after round six. Cup was after round six last year no yes it in uh no no um cordaro patterson well he was a running back all right hold on well i'd like to know what those numbers are for running backs well for net last year okay okay

here it here was debobo Samuel was round eight. Jamar Chase was round seven. Hunter Renfro was undrafted. This is full PPR. And Cordero Patterson was not drafted. So if you don't count Patterson, then it's only three. If you do, then it's four. And that's as many as there were

in the previous three years combined. And what am I talking about? I'm talking about top 12 wide receivers who were drafted after round six. It's pretty rare. What about for running backs? Going to try. Last year, I think it was Fournette, Connor, Elijah,

I knew Connor would be there. Yeah, Mitchell wasn't even drafted. Cordero. Right, if you're going to count Cordero. Actually, not that many. So in the last three years, only four running backs have finished top 12 while being drafted

after around you should look well the the problem with that is a lot of times the guys who emerge on the waiver wire don't finish as top 12 running backs because the first three or four weeks of the season they're backing someone else up absolutely so there's different ways to really make a fantasy impact using full season stats. It's hard to flesh this out, but yeah, I, I don't, it's,

it's my, my understanding of the way things have been is you're more likely to find a league winning running back on the waiver. You're more likely to find a replacement level wide receiver for sure. Dave, like if you're looking for a number three wide receiver, you will find that much easier on the waiver wire than a low-end number two running back. But you're more likely to find one of those great running backs

on the waiver wire to go with the great wide receivers you've already drafted. The Amonra St. Brown is more rare than the Elijah Mitchell or pick the running back that you plug in in your fantasy playoffs. You're more likely to get that type of player at running back than receiver, I would say. But there's also this. Over the past three seasons, I don't know how you feel about this, seven, seven, and nine of the top 12 running backs were drafted in rounds one and two.

So at least seven, seven to nine in each of the last three seasons of the top 12 finishers were drafted in rounds one and two. At least seven. Seven to nine in each of the last three seasons of the top 12 finishers were drafted in rounds one and two. You've got a better than 50% chance. That wouldn't be the way the math would work. It would be how many running backs have been drafted in the top two rounds

those two years. I think it's usually around 15. That's just off the top of my head. Then that wouldn't be 50%. It would be close, but not. Yeah.

15, 16, something like that. Okay, so those are numbers that we should probably talk about separately on a different show. Earlier in the show,

I know not everybody listens to the full thing. Okay, I think that's Apple Podcast. Let's go to some emails here. We'll do these quickly, guys. This is from Christian from a suburb

north of Detroit. Dave? Gipsalani. Can you touch on guillotine league strategies? I played my first one last year, which I actually won, but I'd love to hear your thoughts on a draft strategy, fab budget usage, et cetera, guillotine leagues. I cannot be there.

I have drafted pretty normally for guillotine leagues with mixed results. Sometimes I'm just out in week three because I took Christian McCaffrey. Sometimes I last until the last two, three weeks of the season. The one strategy I would have would be very selective about how you use your fab early on. Okay. This is from rob s hey glenn don randy joe and don the eagles yeah it's the eagles good job first i really appreciate

what you guys do day in day out rarely do you get praise for hitting the mark it's only your misses that are highlighted that said can you give us some insight on lessons learned at the end of a season? Do the analysts get end-of-year grades? How do hits and misses of a previous year drive current-year forecasts? Would you rather be

too high or too low on a given player? Blah, blah, blah. Yeah, it's a good overall question, I guess, on end-of-year evaluations and how you guys use it the following year.

Hmm. We are not evaluated on our hits and misses uh internally it's not like we walk into the office and you know the the oh i've got a scoreboard oh yeah you keep track of everything that ever no no i was gonna say like i hear honestly because we have such good fans, I probably hear more stuff when one of the guys that we're on that does well than I do the negative stuff. The Andre Swift month was so much fun. You were taking victory laps all the time. When there's one guy that one of you is really high on and that player hits like Darren Waller a few years ago for Dave, that is really fun.

Everybody seems to remember that. We try to do that every year. It's not just Heath and I. Jamie does it. Adam, you do it. You've pinned your hopes. You were crazy about Justin Jefferson. I nailed Justin Jefferson that year. Damn right. It's going to be Christian.

He won all kinds of leagues because he still had him on his roster. Just got to be patient. I'm sorry to cut you short, Rob. I think if you want to know more about their kind of rankings philosophies, I think we can talk about that on a different show

and spend a lot of time on it. I think it'd be pretty interesting. Adam in St. Louis. 10-team full PPR league. I'm keeping Derek Henry, Jonathan Taylor, and Justin Jefferson. Should I try to put a stranglehold

on the running back position with a David Montgomery type, or should I go with Kittle or Waller or a wide receiver? He's already got Henry, Taylor, and Jefferson. What would you do? Would you take another really solid running back, or would you take a tight end or a receiver? No, in a 10-team league, I would look at one of those. I'd look at

one of those tight ends. I just don't know if I would take them immediately. Kittle and Waller. i'd go pass catcher for sure um and just best available pass catcher probably in my next two or three picks andrews and montgomery are the only or andrews and kelsey are the only tight ends that i would take ahead of montgomery um same cup jefferson adams chase and digs are the only wide receivers i take out of montgomery so i would probably take same Cup Jefferson Adams Chase and Diggs are the only wide receivers I take Montgomery so I would probably take Montgomery this is from Matthew I just found out that I landed the third pick in my fantasy football

PPR redraft league I assume Jonathan Jonathan Taylor and Derek Henry will go one two do you feel there is a clear cut guy at the number three spot if so who do you like what is the consensus ranking say, Adam? Eckler is two, and I think McCaffrey is three. I will double-check for you.

I believe Eckler is top three for all three of us. Yeah, I've got a Taylor, Kupp, Eckler. Yep, and I've got a Taylor, Henry, Eckler. Your top three are Taylor, Eckler, McCaffrey, Henry Cup. That's the consensus. So Eckler is the pick? Yep. I think so.

All right, guys. Thank you. Long show today. I appreciate you guys hopping on on this Friday. No show on Monday. Have a great weekend, everybody. A great Father's Day. Celebrating Juneteenth, whatever you're celebrating.

Have a wonderful weekend. We'll talk great Father's Day. Celebrating Juneteenth, whatever you're celebrating. Have a wonderful weekend. We'll talk to you on Tuesday on Fantasy Football Today.