Fantasy Football Today - Derek Carr's Upside, Rams Passing Game and Much More (03/18 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: March 18, 2022

Now that we've had some time to digest the Davante Adams news, we're wondering if we were too low on Derek Carr. First, though, we start with some Darren Waller analysis (3:30) and compare him to T.J. Hockenson. Then we tell you why Carr could be a great late round value (9:30) but also wonder if Fantasy managers will trust him ... Did Matthew Stafford's value change with the Allen Robinson addition (23:00)? And did Robinson's value change? If the Rams trade Robert Woods, would he be the most appealing available wide receiver (28:15)? ... We talk Raheem Mostert (31:10), Baker Mayfield (37:50), the Falcons RBs and tight ends (46:00) ... Your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. All right, it is Friday morning. Happy Friday. Let's rock and roll. We have done our Raiders research. We've got some more stats to throw at you after our bonus pod last night.

You know, it's fun to do those bonus pods, but it's also fun, Dave, to kind of sit there and look at stats that we hadn't looked at before and maybe change our opinions a little bit. Dave and I were chatting this morning. Man, are we too low on Derek Carr? So we'll get to that in a second. We've got the Allen Robinson news as he's on the Rams. They might trade Robert Woods.

We'll talk about Robert Woods and Robinson and what you need to know about them. A lot of tight end news. It looks like Rob Gronkowski is probably going to be back in Tampa Bay. We haven't really talked about Austin Hooper getting released and what that might mean. I don't know. Maybe some low end tight end sleepers have emerged, but breaking news.

Heath is in 11th place in our bracket challenge. And he just, I don't know. You just seem to be one of those guys who's very lucky with these things. We'll see how it plays out. But so far, I don't know why you would ascribe that to luck because because you told me the amount of research and time that i spent both on cbssports.com reading all of the great expert content we have

there and then on sportsline going through what the model suggests i just i i try to combine the computers and the humans and just put together the perfect bracket every year i've fallen short again i not perfect but um you know i we got we got a chance here i'm gonna make a run at it all right i asked my 14 year old daughter who i should take and she she picks teams based on how silly they sound. We have Gonzaga winning the national championship. We were happy with Kentucky losing, right? I was happy. Yeah, I was happy.

I mean, I like those storylines. Apparently, if you read Sportsline, which is great if you want to gamble on some games, I know one of our experts on sports line really likes auburn i honestly forget jacksonville state i think they're playing uh likes the other team to cover and thinks that auburn as a two seed might lose like has a chance not picking it but has a chance to lose today so so uh why would that be of interest to you adam i wonder yeah i don Yeah, I don't really think Miami's going to win today, but they would play the winner of the Auburn game.

So anyway, let's get to fantasy football here. Email of the day. This was last week before the Raiders trade from Megan. With gas prices so high, are we fading Derek Carr? Should we be targeting PJ Walker? You know, Carr, Walker. Okay, anyway. That was really that was good it was clever i just want to keep real life out of this podcast i mean it wasn't good as placebo samuel but

it was better than placebo sam all right so talking points do you want to start with derrick car or darren waller because i think i think i i may have sold car short yesterday and i think heath is way too low on Darren Waller. Heath's nuts on Darren Waller. So what do you want to talk about here? Man, first off, I think I said at the beginning of the podcast last night, who knows what I'm going to think when I wake up in the morning or after a week of researching this. As you were saying, we do these instant reactions and then often plug the numbers in. And,

but I think what I said last night was that like Darren Waller was going to fall to tight end six. And where did everybody have him at four or five before this trade? Um, I did the projections. He didn't move at all. Um, because there was a big gap behind him.

I do think like think he's not... I could see Kyle Pitts, who I currently have behind him, but will have ahead of him as soon as Deshaun Watson makes it official that he's going to Atlanta. I could see Kyle Pitts being the tight end one. And Adams'

arrival, I think, takes that possibility off the table for Waller. But I don't know. If I have Waller third or sixth, there's not a huge difference in my projections between Waller, Hawkinson, Pitts, and Kittle right now. To me, it's just Hawkinson. I mean, I'm surprised that you'd consider dropping him

below Hawkinson well I again I think this is a Joe Mixon situation um in that I never got as excited about what TJ Hawkinson could have been last year and so I'm not going to be as low on everyone who got burnt by him last year right I just it does this change the fact that the way we looked at tight end was there was a big five that you were going to put in some order. It was most likely going to be Kelsey Andrews one, two, and then figure out three,

four, five with, with a Waller pits and Kittle, but the Adams trade. Is that how you saw the tight end position with a big five and then a clear cutoff after five. And then the Adams trade, does that change that?

And does that make it really a big four and put Waller then the adams trade does that change that and does that make it really a big four and put waller on the outside is that how you're seeing it i i had hawkinson in the same range as kittle and waller and pits before this trade so i saw it as a top two that was undeniable and then four that could go in just about any order you want but pits will probably end up third, assuming that he gets the quarterback that we think he's going to. But even last year, I think the difference between Waller and Hawkinson was two-tenths of a fantasy point on a per-game basis.

And yeah, it was a bad year for Waller, but the outlier is probably in his career going to look like 2020. Yeah, touchdowns are really the big thing for him. I think in 2019 and 2021, he was on pace, on pace for three touchdowns in 17 games. And in 2020, I think he was on pace for eight or nine. But yeah, I guess the headline really is more about Hawkinson and that Heath kind of, I didn't know that you had him

so close to Waller and Kittle when, Dave, you jump in after he responds and i yeah i would not have except for the fact that i dropped waller from where i had him going into last year and now dropped him just a little bit more i guess but and then the kittle has the trey lance concerns it's more that waddle waddle waller and kittle it's funny that their names makes waddle, Waller, and Kittle. It's funny that their names, Nick Swaddle, have come down into that Hawkinson range, I think. Go ahead, Dave. I'm going to be cold on Hawkinson.

It has a little bit to do with last year. It has a lot of bit to do with Amon Ross St. Brown stepping up. I don't think he's going away in this offense. I don't think he'll be as targeted as much in the Detroit offense, but they're following through on what their receiver coach said back at the Senior Bowl, which is we want to add pieces to the passing game. They got DJ Chark for whatever he brings them for one year. I assume they're going to draft another wide receiver

that will take more targets away from Hawkinson, and I think Hawkinson could be stuck in this area in fantasy where he has decent target volume, decent target volume from game to game, but doesn't have great stats to necessarily go along with it. He can get you right around 10 PPR points. He did that in eight of 12 games last year. At least 10 PPR points, that's fine. But the one that I go back and forth is,

do I like Hawkinson less than I like Dallas Goddard? And I think it'll take how the Lions finish off their offseason for me to determine where I fall on that. But for now, I have absolutely no problem taking Waller, Kittle, Dalton Schultz, Rob Gronkowski, assuming Gronk is back in Tampa Bay, all ahead of Hawkinson. And we should also point out the Eagles are continuously linked to wide receivers.

They seem to really want to upgrade at that position. They were in on Calvin Ridley. And if they add another significant wide receiver, there still are a few out there, like Juju that we talked about yesterday. If they add a significant wide receiver, I think that's, you know, for a team that had the fewest past attempts

in football last year, it'll sure be higher, but they're not going to be a throw first team that could definitely affect the Goddard rankings. And you could also for Waller, you know, we'll finish up on Waller here. You could make the case. I won't go through all the numbers and all the paces, but you could make the case that outside of the last five games of the 2020 season, he really hasn't been that good over the last two years. You know, 2019 was a great year.

Touchdowns were low, but great year for him. 2020 was his best year. He was the number two tight end in football. He had eight touchdowns that year, I believe. Nine. Nine. And the last five games were just ridiculous. He had 115 or more yards and four or five games started with a 200 yard game against the jets and he went off it i don't want to just remove them

but that was you know his a dot went way up but i guess you could look at the last two years and i could see how you'd be a little bit low on a little bit negative on waller because he hasn't been great outside of that five-game stretch. So people have to parse data however they want to do it. But it is kind of worth noting there. You know, but the overall numbers are really exciting. And then does this help or hurt him? This Devontae Adams, obviously the targets are down.

Maybe the offense would just be better. And Dave, I think as we transition over to Derek Carr, we were thinking, man, are we too low? He's been ninth, fifth, and sixth in yards per attempt the last three seasons. That's good. Yeah, it's really good. Last year he was fifth in passing yards,

and he threw 23 touchdowns, and the rest of the top 10 in passing yards threw at least 33 touchdowns. His yards have been impressive. Well, his yards per attempt, anyway. So it's just the touchdown rate's been terrible. Can Devonta Adams fix that? And if so, then we could really be looking at, I guess,

a late career breakout or something like that. We could be looking at an amazing late round pick in fantasy leagues where you just wait to take Derek Carr, and he's your starting quarterback for the season, and he pays off in a different way. Yes, his yards per attempt has been great over the last three years. He's been good in just terms of general yardage as well, and that's with him being reeled in a little bit as far as pass attempts back

in 2019 and 2020, he kind of was allowed to throw more in 2021. Once John Gruden, especially left the team, he certainly showed that he can get lots of yardage. It's that touchdown rate. And really it's the red zone touchdown rate that I'm scared to death of when it comes to Derek Carr.

But then you think about all the receivers that Derek Carr's had over the last three years, Waller, probably the best one among them. And then he had things going with Hunter Renfro a little bit last year. His red zone touchdown rate ranked 33rd, 46th, and 38th over the last three years. Just crazy, ridiculous numbers. Obviously, that includes some quarterbacks that weren't full-time players, but even so, low red zone touchdown rate for Derek Carr. He

struggled in the red zone. His completion rate in the red zone, also really bad. Now you're getting somebody like Devonta Adams. Devonta Adams in the red zone, and granted, Aaron Rodgers is his quarterback, so these numbers are going to be great. Last year, third in red zone targets with 27, fourth in red zone catches with 18, Fourth in red zone catches with 18.

Second in red zone touchdowns with 10. And that was a down year for him compared to 2020 when he was first, first, and first in those three categories in the red zone. So obviously Devonta Adams is going back to the Las Vegas and the Raiders because it's his childhood team and because Derek Carr was his guy. They combined for over 3,000 yards and I want to say 38 touchdowns at Fresno State. Two years at Fresno State.

These two are friends and they're going to have that same level of synergy that Adams had with Rodgers. I just don't know if Carr is as good of a passer. Actually, I do know he's not as good of a passer as Aaron Rodgers, but he'll find ways to get Adams the football. And I think that Carr's numbers are going to obviously be elevated because he's got Devonta Adams there,

along with Darren Waller and Hunter Renfro and Josh McDaniels now calling plays. McDaniels knows a thing or two about being aggressive on offense when he's got a quarterback that he trusts. So I think Derek Carr is absolutely in the conversation of being a top 12 fantasy quarterback. And he might not be the 12th off the board, but we had a conversation last week. This was when Brady came back about the best, the right strategy for drafting a quarterback. And that was wait, wait, wait.

Like Jamie talked about Jamie had Tom Brady ranked fifth or whatever. And he said, I might have him ranked fifth, but I'm still going to wait forever to get a quarterback. Car is another name added to that list now where you can just wait on that position and draft him to begin the year. And the best part is that he's got the schedule for the Raiders, and this is really going to be the schedule for pretty much everybody that plays against or in the AFC West. Lots of games that figure to be high-scoring matchups. Tons of opponents against teams with huge offenses. So potentially a lot of 35-32 type football games.

Lots of touchdowns being scored. But also they've got a lot of games against teams that don't have good offenses and don't necessarily have good defenses either. And that'll help Derek Carr. Maybe they win those games 28-13, something like that. This is going to be a potent offense. You're going to want to have pieces of it. Carr, one of those value pieces on draft day. Yeah.

I think there's going to be 10 quarterbacks that are going to be kind of the top 10 and then there's four guys who are looking very very similar aaron rogers matthew stafford kirk cousins derrick carr going from 11 to 14 and you could make an argument for any of those guys i think at 11 right now and they all have the upside to get into the top seven or eight probably not top five at this point i did a twitter poll this morning for dynasty who would you rather have as your quarterback in a dynasty league derrick carr or aaron rogers car currently at 45 percent of the vote rogers at 44 um basically all the t results why do you do that just don't let people

out easy coin Coin flip. Yeah, that's interesting. Who would you rather have, Carr or Rodgers in Dynasty? Carr. I mean, I'm going to have him really, really close to a coin flip in redraft. And I think Carr has probably twice as many years left as Rodgers. Yeah, you know, let me just read what I wrote to Dave. Because I know that some people are going to push back on this.

I'm not a scout. I get it. But we all watch a lot of football, and we all use that to inform our decisions. And I just said, if Carr can throw more touchdowns, it seems like he can have a pretty big season. But for some reason, I have my doubts, probably because I think there are at least 10 quarterbacks who are clearly better or much better than him as football players. And then there are the mobile guys who aren't better, but are potentially better for fantasy.

And I don't know. I don't want to sell Derek Carr short. I just feel like he's not as good as the numbers. I don't think he's the number six quarterback, even though he's sixth in yards per attempt and he was fifth in passing yards or whatever. I don't think that. I know that there are more than six quarterbacks who are better than him. And I don't think it's just like the weapons. I just think he's good. You know, he's good.

He's solid. He's Kirk Cousins-y. And somebody tweeted last week, I wish I remember who it was, that Kirk Cousins is the poster child for the analytics versus eye tests because Cousins is great. He's had a terrible offensive line for three years in a row in terms of the PFF grade.

He doesn't turn the ball over. His completion percent, like everything is great. But we watch football and we don't really think Kirk Cousins is in that realm, right, in that group. And that's how I feel about Derek Carr. So I want to get excited, but I don't know. Something's holding me back. And that's just, it's not mediocrity. He's been above average, but he just is not a great football player.

So let's forget about rushing production for a moment. Yeah. Because these conversations often frustrate me, and I don't put as much into that as you do. No, no, no. I don't put that much into it, though. I will say that. It might sound like I do. I'm not saying you put a lot into it. It's just more than me.

Yeah, okay. Who are the quarterbacks right now who you are saying, yes, those guys are definitely better passers than Derek Kerr? Okay. Josh Allen, Tom Brady,

Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahms, Matthew Stafford Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers pure passers Russell Wilson I'm looking at fantasy points Russell Wilson and I feel like I'm forgetting somebody but no that might be it

Sean Watson Sean Watson I feel like I'm forgetting somebody, but no, that might be it. No, Deshaun Watson. Deshaun Watson. So, Derek Carr, arguably a top 10 passer. Yeah, I didn't put Kyler in there. I didn't put Lamar Jackson in there. I think that's fair. I don't know.

Matt Ryan? In that group. I don't know how to rank Ryan. I don't know anymore. Right. And so, like you were just saying, I don't know how to rank Ryan. I don't know anymore. Right. And so, like you were just saying, I don't think he's the sixth best, and that's what he was according to this stat last year.

But he's been a low-end top 10 passer according to the stats you're talking about. Yeah. You view him as a borderline top 10 passer. But not even close to most of the guys that I mentioned. I think that's kind of how I, yeah. And I think that might be like,

I don't think he's anywhere close to Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rogers, or probably Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson. But I don't know that he's that far from the guys that are six through nine as passers. Herbert Burrow. And he just got Devontae Adams. Yeah.

Like, I would think, and another thing to remember, and one of the reasons I get frustrated is, this game that we play does not give any points for eye tests or scouts' opinions. It gives points for stats. And so, like, he's produced this level of stat without Devante Adams. We should assume. I think that statistically he will probably improve with Devante Adams.

Well, he's only had one season Derek Carr where he's finished higher than 17th per game. He has not thrown the ball very much recently as Dave Dave was talking about, kind of being held back by Gruden, I think. No, last year he threw a lot. And the year before, actually, the problem, if you look at his per game the year before, he had a game where he threw five passes and got hurt. And that screws everything up.

But he's not, yeah, they weren't like airing it out. But yeah, I don't know. I mean, Gruden it he would he would go for high percentage passes and car and then this includes last year has routinely been outside of like the top 15 in deep pass attempt rate so he's good when he throws deep he just hasn't been able to pull the trigger as often as other quarterbacks have. But, you know, Heath, I bring it up because I know fantasy managers are going to, not all, but I know many of them are going to just be skeptical of Derek Carr because of his career so far,

which has been good, not great. You know, they are going to use, many of them are going to use the eye test. They're going to say, oh, he's Derek Carr. So I think that is going to come into play when we look at ADP. Nobody's thinking of him as a top five quarterback. We're just going to debate whether or not, like he's the perfect guy to draft with Trey Lance or Justin Fields. Heath. And hope that one of the upside guys hits and they don't,

you've got a good starting quarterback. Do you think Carr has a chance to finish as QB5 in fantasy points per game? Sure. That sure sounds like 10%. It doesn't sound like – there's no question you're going to burrow ahead him in that regard, and Dak and Kyler and all those guys. Yeah. I mean, for me personally, Burrow is much, much closer to the Rodgers-Cousins-Stafford group than seems to be for other people. So I don't know that I would think that burrows chances are a lot better

than cars but better probably a little stafford um very very similar i don't know how i would distinguish i would say that he's probably a little bit closer i could see stafford finishing top five a lot a little bit easier i was going to say a lot but no a little bit closer. I could see Stafford finishing top five a little bit easier. I was going to say a lot, but no, a little bit easier than Carr. But I think Carr's close. I think he deserves to be in this range that we're talking about. So why don't we go to the Rams then? So we already did a podcast on the Raiders,

but yeah, I think these are going to be great debates throughout the offseason. Yeah, free agency has been so boring, but the trades have been freaking awesome. This is great. All right. So we go to the Rams. They sign Alan Robinson. It's a three-year deal. I believe it was $45 million and $30 million guaranteed for Alan Robinson. And now reportedly Robert Woods is on the trading block. And Robinson, I want to say, is going to be 29. Woods, I know, is going to be 30. So these guys are up there,

and these guys are coming off seasons that didn't look so great. But again, they might not have both of them. By the way, I have to do some promotion here. We're going to have a post-free agency rankings debate on Monday. We're going to have Samantha Praviti on Tuesday for winners and losers from free agency and trades and all that, plus some buy or sell.

And Thursday, we're going to be talking Dynasty as the dust settles here on this past week, or it'll be two weeks of fantasy, of football action, off-season action, and we'll see what the Dynasty stock looks like. So three shows next week, barring any, not including any bonus pods. And a big show on HQ on Monday too.

Yes, we have a free agency special HQ on Monday too. Yes. We have a free agency special HQ on Monday at 4 p.m. Eastern. So check that out. That's going to be a lot of fun. And you can be a part of it. You can tweet us with some questions and things like that. But we'll be wrapping up free agency on Monday on CBS Sports HQ, which you can watch on the CBS Sports app. Or of course, I have it on my Roku. So any smart TV, just download the CBS Sports app. You can watch HQ. And yeah, it's actually perfect right now. The March Madness coverage is spectacular.

All right, go to the Rams. Let's start with Stafford, I guess. Value up, down, or the same as they sign Allen Robinson? Let's go quickly on Stafford so we can focus on the wide receivers here. Dave, what did you think? Go ahead, Heath. Sorry. As of right now, it sounds like the plan is to –

they would like to still get Beckham and they'd like to move Woods. And so I don't know that I view Stafford any differently. I thought it was going to be Cup, Woods, and Beckham or Cup, Woods, and Jefferson. And now it looks like it might be cup robinson and beckham or cup robinson and jefferson and i'm fine with any of those he's a borderline number one quarterback i decide to take him before car but they're right in the same conversation okay as of now i feel the exact same way perfect so i'm waiting i'm waiting to take a quarterback one of those guys

will be there that guy will be my starter for the season. This was a pretty unexpected, at least in my opinion, destination for Allen Robinson. Just did not see this coming. And it's fun. It's exciting. Put him on a great offense, and we'll see what he's got left. He can be the number two guy. He's never been, unless you want to count Darnell Mooney,

he's always been number one with kind of junk at number two receiver. This is a brand new role for him. So where right now do you have Alan Robinson in your rankings? Not very high. I believe he's right around a hundredth overall, not at the receiver position, of course, that's just in the rankings. I've got him outside my top 36 at wide receiver, but that's assuming that Robert Woods stays, and then that minimizes what Robinson can do. I spent a lot of time watching Mitchell Trubisky film

from his days in Chicago, and I also watched a little bit of Robinson in 2021 just to see him. And he can still separate with footwork, but he, his speed isn't really there anymore. I don't know if it ever really was. I had Robinson at 41 before he signed with the Rams. I put him into the projections and he came out at 39th.

So that is factoring in Robert Woods being there. But my, again, my expectation is that if Woods is not going to be there, then Beckham is. Yeah, but then that might only be for like 10 games. Robinson could at least get you off to a hot start. Potentially. It just depends. What's Cooper Cupps' target share going to be next year? If he's what he was, it's, I mean, even Beckham was scoring touchdowns, but at 40 yards a game, basically. Yeah, and Woods wasn't really

having a good game. He played a good season. He played nine games. I think he had more than 70 yards twice, and it was kind of uninvolved. It's just weird. They had such a great year, and nobody benefited except for Cooper Cupp. He got all of the benefit. If you just look at the raw passing numbers from the Rams, you would have thought it would have been more equally distributed.

I've talked about this before, so I think we should just bring it up. Sean McVay is not married to any offensive philosophy. If Cooper Cup was a 25 percent target share guy this year and fell to be a low-end number one wide receiver again um and alan robinson was a good number two that wouldn't be all that surprising but just hard to expect after what we saw last year yeah i don't know what to make of robinson because last year you know he didn't get his contract didn't seem to get along with the coaches i don't know I don't know what to make of Robinson because last year, you know, he didn't get his contract. Didn't seem to get along with the coaches. I don't know. I don't know the inner workings of the locker room there, but reports have indicated it wasn't a great situation

and obviously a huge upgrade in passing offense here. So what is his upside? Heath, you just said he could be a number two wide receiver. Dave, what's the upside for Allen Robinson? Low end number two wide receiver. Because I think Stafford has his guy in Cooper Cup. That relationship, Stafford to Cup, it feels exactly like Rodgers to Devontae Adams. I don't see that changing. Yeah.

Now, Robert Woods has been top 18 per game, including this past season, by the way, four straight seasons in full PPR and three of four in non-PPR. But it is so much different if you take his rushing totals out. And I don't think you're going to get that from Allen Robinson.

Robert Woods, very reliable running the ball, but he has shown that he can be a number two wide receiver, a high to mid range number two wide receiver. But if you take the rushing, it's more like a number three receiver, sometimes a number four receiver. Take out the rushing.

All right, so would you rather have right now, if you're drafting right now, Allen Lazard or Alan Robinson? Robinson. Robinson. Robin, Alan Lazard's the number one receiver for the Packers. Nobody believes that's going to happen. Aaron Jones is probably the number one receiver

for the Packers right now. I'm more interested about where Robert Woods is going to end up, like which AFC West team is going to trade for him. What about AFC East? No, only good players are only allowed to go to the AFC West this offseason. Yeah, I know. But I could see there is some sentiment

that Buffalo would welcome him back. Will the Rams trade him to the Packers? Or they just say, no, we're not sending you there. Is Robert Woods the best available wide receiver, in your mind, for fantasy purposes? 30 years old coming off a torn ACL. Right, but you're lining him up against Juju Smith-Schuster. I would say no.

I think Juju's probably a little bit better. You're lining him up against Juju Smith-Schuster? I would say no. I think Juju's probably a little bit better. You're lining him up against Julio Jones. I don't know if Julio can stay healthy for 10 games. You're lining him up against Odell. Odell also coming off of a torn ACL. I would take him ahead of a healthy Jarvis.

Is Cooper Cup the number one wide receiver in your rankings right now? Yes. Is that two right now? Yes. Is that two yeses? Yes. It is. Okay. If we're doing a salary cap draft with a $200 budget,

how much does Cooper Cup go for, and how much does your number two wide receiver, whoever that may be, go for? I would ballpark Cup at 50, and the receiver behind him at 49. Yeah. I think there's a little bigger gap there. Um, I'd probably go cup cup at 60 and the receiver behind him at 49.

Wow. And who is the receiver behind him? Right now, it's Jefferson for me. It's Jefferson and PPR Chase and non-PPR for me. Okay. More free agency stuff. Let's talk about Raheem Mostert and some tight ends. Yes, honestly, Raheem Mostert.

And yes, some tight ends. After, a quick break for you right here on Fantasy Football Today. We'll be right back. What does possible sound like for your business? a quick break for you right here on Fantasy Football Today. We'll be right back. with access to over 1,400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. The Dolphin sign, Raheem Mostert.

And here's a fun thing for you. Where have the 49ers ranked in run blocking, according to PFF? What's their run blocking grade been in the last five seasons? Six, third, fourth, second, and second. That is ridiculous. Five straight years as a top six run blocking team. Four straight years as a top four

run blocking team. The Dolphins were 30th in 2021. But here comes Raheem Mostert to, you know, a system that he's going to be familiar with. And I'm with. I'm intrigued. I'm intrigued. How about you guys? Do you have him as a number three running back right now?

What do you mean? Number three overall? Yes. Yes, absolutely. I'm going to take Jonathan Taylor first, Derek Henry second, Raheem Mostert third. Top 30 guy. No. No.

Top 70. You can start to see what the Dolphins want to do. They want to be able to have a guy who they can count on to handle the rushing downs, and then they've got another guy that they can put in in those passing downs, and if need be, they could swap those two out. We've seen Mostert catch a pass before.

We've seen Chase Edmonds run between the tackles before. We know Mostert's going to be a great fit for what this run offense should be, that outside zone scheme. Edmonds should be a great fit as well. Yeah, it's just, I mean, Mostert will be 30 next month. His career high is 137 rush attempts in a season. Last year, Chase Edmonds set a career high with 9.6 rush attempts per game. Okay, who's the highest-rank ranked Dolphins running back for you?

And I'll remind you, Raheem Mostert averaged 10 yards per carry last year. He is. Like, in YPC leagues, Raheem Mostert might be the number three running back. He's at 5.7 yards per carry for his career. Yeah. But his career is fewer carries than a Derrick Henry season. He has 284 career rush attempts in like nine years in the league. It's pretty impressive though.

5.7 yards per. It's impressive. It is very impressive playing for the number two, number three, number six, number eight run block. He was always six or higher, but he was better than everyone else. I mean, that's the thing. It's not like

everyone was as good as Raheem Mostert. He has been the best, most effective running back for the 49ers in that five season stretch. All right, but Edmonds or Mostert right now? Edmonds. Edmonds. I think he'll play more games. All right. You guys don't seem too enthused about Mostert.

That is fine. How about... He's a zero RB guy. You want to be the person in your league that takes receivers and tight ends at the start of the draft, or if you're in a super flex league, you're going to take a quarterback or two real early on,

and you're just going to issue that running back position. Then Mostert's someone who's going to be that running back position, then most are someone who's going to be on your list to start the season with. By the way, I made a bold prediction, I think last week, a guarantee. I don't remember what it was a guarantee or what that Kyle Pitts would be a second round pick by the time we got to, you know, August. I'm one trade away, which has a 50% chance of happening from that being reality in April.

So my other prediction, I think, unless, I mean, the Dolphins could easily address running back, but I think Mostert's going to have some helium, as they say. I'd like to say that in a high-pitched voice. I think as we get closer to the season and people start seeing the appeal that you just said as like a zero RB guy, I think he's going to settle in like the seventh round or something like that, Raheem Mostert,

because he'll be lining up to be the number one running back for the Dolphins. I just, like, but that's the thing. When you say he'll be lining up to be the number one running back for the Dolphins, he's not going to catch passes, at least not sharing with Edmonds. Edmonds will have that role.

And we don't expect him to play a full season. So how many carries are you going to project for Raheem Mostert? I don't know. I think you get to the point in the draft where you don't need a guy to play a full season. You just need him to be good when he's in your lineup. I don't know.

A hundred and... I don't know. A hundred and... Not a hundred. Maybe 15 carries in one game and he has a really good week one and that's it. That's what you draft him for. I would not like to use my seventh round pick on a running back who's going to give me a good week, hopefully. We'll see. That might be a little

crazy. I'm just riding the momentum of my Kyle Pitts call, I think. I'm just doubling down. Hey, Joe Buck and Troy Aikman, Monday Night Football. What do you think? Are you excited for that? I've been listening to them for years. Now I'm going to listen to them on Mondays instead of Sundays. It's fine.

They're good. They're very good. I know somebody who... I don't know if you know this or not, Joe Buck, obviously, like Hall of Famer, one of the best at his craft. He has a large contingency of people who don't enjoy listening to him. Yeah, yeah. Really has a lot of, and I know one of those people. And so they saw the Fox News and they were excited. And I was like, well, I News, and they were excited. I was like, well, it's Joe Buck.

He's going to be on Monday Night Football now on ESPN. They perked right up. They said, well, at least we've got the Manning cast. Yeah, it's just a different day. The fact that people hate Joe Buck actually makes me feel better about myself. Because I get a lot of hate from listeners. And Joe Buck is, I think he's tremendous. I understand how he could rub people the wrong way. But as a broadcaster, I mean, he is so good.

One of the best of his generation, yes. So if people could hate Joe Buck, then I guess I won't take it too personally. Not to say I'm Joe Buck, but people will hate anyone, including me. Anyway, some more news and notes. We'll get to your emails in a minute. FantasyFootball at CBSi.com.

Deshaun Watson is deciding between New Orleans and Atlanta. When it happens, you'll hear from us. The Giants signed Tyrod Taylor to a two-year deal and obviously there's some upside, at least for playing time there. Baker Mayfield requested a trade, but the Browns have denied his request. Should

we talk about the Browns a little bit, Dave? What do you think about the Browns quarterback situation? What a mess, but it's kind of one that the Browns front office brought upon themselves, but it also feels like no one really likes Baker Mayfield anymore. Like when I talk about people not liking Joe Buck or Adam Azer, I think there are a lot of people out there that just do not like Baker Mayfield in Cleveland right now. I can't imagine how they mend that fence outside of giving him a big contract extension,

which I just don't think the Browns are ready to do at this point. So we'll see what happens. I'm, I'm thinking that the Browns will have somebody else starting a quarterback for them. And maybe it's someone who actually ends up helping Amari Cooper. Cause right now we've got Cooper. I I'll speak for myself.

I have Cooper as a number three fantasy receiver right now. I'd love to see him with a quarterback. And certainly with the change in offensive philosophy that might come with a different quarterback that puts him into that low-end number two range. Look at this comment from Jasmine. Imagine getting stuck in a room with Joe Buck, Adam Azer, and Baker Mayfield. Yikes.

I thought Jasmine and I were buds. I like Jasmine a lot. Probably our favorite comment commenter um but and this would be terrible no it would be super it'd be super awkward i don't yeah i don't know what i'm even gonna say what do i do with my hands have you tried acheman's new beer heath asks albert i have not tried troy acheman's new beer um i i'm to do the flip-flop on Baker Mayfield, and this happens a lot throughout the years where I don't like somebody

because everybody else likes them too much, and now I'm going to start liking them because I don't know if there's much difference between Baker Mayfield and that group of quarterbacks we were just talking about in the right situation. He's on a very low pass volume offense. He was awesome before he got hurt last year. He's shown flashes of being very good.

We have no idea how much the injury affected him last year. And. Oh. A lot. Significantly. Yeah. But I don't think the Browns get better by trading Baker away and going and getting Jimmy.

I'm not sure if they get better by trading Baker away and going and getting Matt Ryan at this stage of his career, but maybe. So it's going to come down to is Baker Mayfield actually going to sit out and cost himself money the year before he becomes a free agent. I don't think that makes any sense. I can't do that. You know how you mend this fence? Go trade for Robert Woods and say, here you go, Baker. mend this fence? Go trade for Robert Woods.

And say, here you go, Baker. We got you Amari Cooper and Robert Woods. We're sorry. This is like buying flowers after you messed up. No. We had to go talk to Watson. I'm sorry. Here you go. The buying flowers isn't Robert Woods.

It's a contract extension. Well, they're not going to do that. No. No. No flowers are coming for baker mayfield and you know you said nobody in cleveland likes him but he has as you recall he has his book club and his trick-or-treaters that show up you know the commercials no okay let's go to running back news dolphin simon he mostar the raiders signed fullback jacob johnson

and running back Brandon Bolden, both from the Patriots. So now they are with Josh McDaniels over with the Raiders. Do you see a passing downs back on this team or is it still Josh Jacobs? Couldn't it be Kenyon Drake? Yeah, could be, but I don't know.

I don't know what happened there. It seems like after Gruden got fired, they just, he fell out of favor. So it could be Drake. It could be Bolden. It could be someone that they draft. I can't rule out Jacobs handling some of that work as well.

He did a decent job catching passes last year. He proved that he could do it. Could he get better at it? Sure. But I also think he's better suited to be the rushing downs guy. He will be the rushing downs guy.

I would also say with Devontae Adams and Theron Waller and West Coast Wes Welker, I don't think there will be as many running back targets

as there have traditionally been in a Josh McDaniels offense. Washington signed J.D. McKissick to that two-year deal. We talked about that on a live stream on YouTube, but not on a podcast. Devin Singletary is saved for now. Antonio Gibson loses that big

upside for now. Well, no, not for now. Would you rather have J.D. McKissick or Chase Edmonds? Edmonds. J.D. McKissick or Chase Edmonds? Edmonds. Edmonds. Okay. JD McKissick or Raheem Mostert? Mostert.

That's probably close enough to where it would depend on my roster construction. I think McKissick is a lot better PPR floor for sure. Patriots signed Ty Montgomery. That is probably not significant as he'll be a special team. What do you mean? They signed James White. What role is Ty Montgomery going to have? Ty Montgomery

is going to have a number of roles on special teams. They will love that versatility. He can return kicks and punts. He can play wide receiver. He's done that before. Remember when he used to wear number 88? Maybe he's still that old.

I think he has one year with more than 25 catches in his career. He could potentially serve a purpose. He's going to serve more than one purpose in New England, but he could serve a purpose on offense as well. Okay, but not in a fantasy-relevant way. Oh, hell no.

And then what about this? Atlanta signed Damian Williams. Heath, what do you think about that? I think he's probably better than Mike Davis. So I would certainly hope that the Falcons are going to have a better running back on their roster than Mike Davis or Damian Williams by the time we get to May. It's weird to think that they have Mike Davis,

they went and signed Damian Williams, and they're still going to bring Cordero back. I don't know. I think things are probably somewhat on hold for the Falcons until they find out who their quarterback is. It's also weird that they'd make that move. They've got some maneuvering to do salary cap-wise. I would think adding even a million dollars for somebody like Damian Williams is kind of weird.

So the wide receiver news, Chris Godwin signed a three-year $60 million deal with $40 million guaranteed, and Tampa Bay also re-signed Brashad Perryman, and of course they brought in Russell Gage. You know about Alan Robinson of the Rams, Adams to the Raiders, Tennessee planning to release Julio Jones, which is going to save them $9.5 million in cap space. So another one we talked about Wednesday night

on the live stream, but not here on the podcast. Dave, give me your thoughts on Julio Jones being released. First of all, did you move A.J. Brown up in your rankings? You did say yesterday that you had Brown ahead of Devontae Adams. I switched that. Adams is back ahead of Brown. And I did not move Brown up in the rankings. I do assume that the Titans will bring in somebody else to get some targets away from A.J. Brown.

But I think A.J. Brown's headed toward a year where he could pick up, uh, North of 130 targets, maybe even in that 150 target range. And that would be really good. Julio is, I, I, I love the idea of Julio Jones catching passes from Aaron Rogers.

Like that sounds fun. That sounds like a, an all-star thing, but we know that julio's just not the same dude that he was once upon a time yeah i i would be pretty excited about that though it would at least make for fun draft debates sure i i would i would even be excited if he went back to atlanta the bears him and kyle pitts on the same field on the same field. That's a lot of beef. The Bears signed Byron Pringle and EQ St. Brown. So not big upgrades for the Chicago Bears.

I think Pringle got like $6 million. He might actually season-dart it. It's a one-year deal. So they're looking for a number two receiver. Those guys are candidates now. And Buffalo released Cole Beasley. So let's go to the tight end news, which is somewhat interesting on a low-end level, other than

Gronkowski, who's much higher end. And we've been talking about, you know, you've got this big five or big four, whatever it may be, and then you've got Hawkinson, you've got Goddard. When Rob Gronkowski is back with the Bucs, which seems likely at this point, where are you going to rank Rob Gronkowski? I believe I'm seventh. I will have him likely.

I haven't updated him since I wasn't sure if Brady was playing, but I would guess he'll be 10th. He was fourth per game in non-PPR. He was third per game in full PPR. He played 12 games, kind of only played 11 games. He had 10% of the snaps in one game against the Saints and left quickly. So he only got really 11 games out of Gronk. You know, he had six touchdowns, and they were all in three games.

Two in one game, two in another game, two in another game. And it was against the Falcons, the Cowboys, and the Falcons. He got four of his six touchdowns against the Falcons. And he wasn't really that good in 2020 after they brought in Antonio Brown. And he wasn't really that good in 2020 when they had O.J. Howard. So I know I was so wrong about Gronk last year.

One of my worst calls. What was your call? I just thought he was a bust. I had no interest in Gronk. They had three great wide receivers and Gronk. Gronk was basically behind Cameron Brate in the playoff run until the Super Bowl. So I just didn't see anything coming from him, really. And he had a great season on pace for 78 catches, 1,136 yards, and eight touchdowns.

But yeah, I don't know. Can he do that again? It doesn't seem like you guys feel like he can be, he will be top five again anyway, as Dave said, he's seventh and he's closer to 10th. So I guess I should ask a question there. What do you make of the difference? What do you make of the difference

between his 2020 season and his 2021 season? I think he was better in 2021, but he got hurt, so he didn't play as many games. But we were all pretty surprised at how well he did based on our preseason thoughts. Everyone was very surprised.

I don't think anybody thought he was going to be a top three or four tight end last year. I don't think anybody's going to think he's going to be a top five tight end this year. He is a starting option that you should expect to have to replace for at least a period of time.

He will be, what, 33 when the season starts? It was good to see that he can still be elite when he plays. Dave, have any sleeper tight ends emerged? Like maybe David Njoku? Nah. I mean, maybe Dawson Knox. And even now, I'm not sure how excited I am because they've got O.J. Howard. I think the answer to that question, and this is low-end sleeper.

This is not somebody who I'm going to say, yeah, go get him. But Evan Engram will have a chance to restart his career in Jacksonville. Well, the one that emerged emerged kind of before this all got started, but it was Albert O. What about Hayden Hurst with Cincinnati? Yeah, that's not a bad call. But again, he's going to end up being at best third on the team in targets. So you got Hayden Hurst on the Bengals,

Alberto with the Broncos, David Njoku with Austin Hooper being released. And Austin Hooper, by the way, led the team in red zone targets two straight years, I believe, or maybe he was second one year behind Jarvis Landry, but gets a lot of targets inside the 20-yard line and around the end zone. So that's a big vacancy, and Landry will be gone too. I'm sorry. So you got Njoku, Ingram, Alberto, and Hayden Hurst now with the Bengals.

Who do you like best, Heath? Alberto is ahead of that group, but he's the only one that's close to my top 12. The rest of them are all closer to 20. I am really curious with the Njoku-Hooper thing because they played two tight ends all year. David Njoku's snap rate wasn't that much different than Austin Hooper's. And so I don't think this is going to

turn Njoku into a 100% snap guy. I think it maybe just means a lot more playing time for Harris and Bryant, maybe a few more red zone targets for Njoku, but I don't really think he's going to see a massive increase in volume. Hooper, though, was actually, I said red zone,

but he was actually second on the team in targets two straight years, which is wild. But he had 61 targets last year. Yeah, I know. It wasn't a lot. But he was a kind of a big part of the offense. Is that fair to say? Of the passing game anyway?

I mean, he had a large piece of that very small pie. Yeah, yeah. I really don't like pie. What? Just have cake. Just eat cake. It's so much better. Oh.

All right. That's it for that news. And we don't have to go through all the defensive stuff, but Von Miller to the Bills. Maybe I shortchanged Dawson Knox there. Dave, you mentioned him. You guys like Knox better than Albert O? I do for now.

No. No, I liked Albert O more than Knox before O.J. Howard resigned, so I'm probably out on drafting Knox. Raiders, man. Chandler Jones is another big one. He's 32 years old. Von Miller is going to be 33 years old this month.

And they both got pretty similar deals because Miller's was six years, 120. But according to The Athletic, it's more like three years, 52 and a half million. And that's basically what Chandler Jones got. And they also, Las Vegas also traded Yannick and Gawkway for Rocky Sin cornerback, who was with the Colts Atlanta signed Casey Hayward. They could have a couple of decent cornerbacks in Atlanta this year.

Baltimore has been beefing up their defense. They signed safety, Marcus Williams to a five-year $70 million deal. He was with the saints and they thought they were signing Zedaria Smith, which would have been a really nice deal four years 35 million dollars and then apparently zadaria smith saw what von miller james jones or getty's ah you know what not so fast so we'll see you saw the packers suddenly have some money available baltimore did sign michael pierce to beef up their run defense the eagles released fletcher cox they could bring him back the Eagles released Fletcher Cox they could bring him back the Giants released Logan Ryan for some reason

looks like he's going to Tampa oh that makes sense good veteran player there I think the Giants are just totally tanking Adam Thielen restructured his contract so he will be staying in Minnesota okay good and that's it for that

let's read some emails to finish the show and get you set for the weekend. This is from Charlie. Dear Bruce, Clark, Barry, and Oliver. Those are superheroes. Who the heck is Oliver? You don't even know. No.

But they are. So you don't know that they're superheroes. They could be different people. For sure, they are. All all right you got to tell me oliver queen come on somebody uh yeah somebody in the chair who is he the green arrow the green arrow what the hell is the green arrow i have this book of uh of marvel superheroes and it gives an explanation on all of them and so many the green arrow is a dc yeah i know i know

but no you didn't yes i did yes i did i because i just googled like i get it i i know um anyway they all started with some type of accident at some type of industrial plant or science lab or something like that. Every superhero is the same. They were all a scientist or something, and something went wrong, and now they're a superhero. It's really – I just can't get into it. All right. Anyway, Dave, Charlie is from a city 35 minutes north of Sacramento. Good for him. Yeah, good, Dave, Charlie is from a city 35 minutes north of Sacramento. Good for him.

Yeah, good for him, California. 12-team PPR, three-keeper league, no draft round penalties. Who is he keeping? He needs three of them. Jamar Chase, Stefan Diggs, Josh Allen, Antonio Gibson, James Conner, and David Montgomery. Jamar Chase, Stefan Diggs, Josh Allen, Gibson, Conner, Montgomery. Pick three.

Full PP. I think Chase and Diggs for sure. I would probably go with Gibson ahead of Josh Allen. I would go Chase, Diggs, Montgomery. And from Mitch. Mitch has a dynasty question. Two grades, two trades to grade in a 10-team dynasty. Super

Flex IDP. He gives up Dalvin Cook, and he still has Alexander Madison. Actually, I don't know what side he's on here, but you tell me which side you like. Dalvin Cook for pick 204

and a 2023 first. Oh, he'd be giving this. Okay. So he's giving up Cook, still has Madison. He gets pick 204 and a first round pick in 2023, which would give him three first round picks in 2023. I'm going to guess most people are going to think that's not enough for Dalvin Cook.

And I would do that. If you're rebuilding, I think that's enough for Dalvin Cook, and I would do that. If you're rebuilding, I think that's enough for Dalvin Cook for me. You have to solely be rebuilding. I would want more. Okay, the second one is, he gives up DeAndre Hopkins and pick 303 for 109 and 309.

Essentially Hopkins for the ninth pick in the rookie draft in a super flex idp league yeah i like that better i'd rather have the pick so i think and you're doing both those trades and you've just added a pair of first rounders and a second and a third for hopkins it sounds like he's rebuilding if he already has two ones i like it perfect all right and then from gene hi gene i got a tough keeper question for you erudite fantasy minds to ponder.

Good thing I knew how to pronounce that one. That would have been embarrassing. I did not. 10-team half PPR. You know what? It actually wouldn't have been. I would have just skipped the word. 10-team half PPR. Joe Buck doesn't know how to pronounce that. Six-point-per-passing touchdown league.

That's Baker Mayfield. In his book club. All right, keep three. Javante Williams, round seven. Keep for two more years. Mahomes, round 10 for one more year. Kittle, round 11, one more year. Derek Henry, round 12, one more year. Austin Eckler, round 14, one more year. Derrick Henry round 12, one more year.

Austin Eckler round 14, two more years. He needs to keep three. Running back, running back, running back. Yep. Okay. What are you guys doing this weekend? I don't even know, man. Tomorrow morning, doing a beach cleanup, Deerfield Beach, picking up trash.

Wow. And then coaching four hours of youth basketball. Probably going to need to drink a lot of beer after that. Jeez, I feel like I need to volunteer somewhere now. You should. That'd be great. I should. I should. You're now. Uh, you should, that'd be great. I should, I should.

You're right. Um, all right. Well, anyway, aren't you glad you asked? I am. I think that is really,

that's really good of you. Heath. Good job. I mean, he loves being on the beach so much. I'll even clean up trash on the beach, but that, that is, that is good stuff.

And, uh, thank you for your service. Heath Cummings. Thank you all for watching and listening. And we'll, we'll talk to you when Deshaun Watson gets traded for Dave and Heath. I'm Adam. Thanks to Shraggy B asings. Thank you all for watching and listening. And we'll talk to you when Deshaun Watson gets traded. For Dave and Heath, I'm Adam. Thanks to Shraggy B as well. See you

later. Have a great weekend, everybody.