Fantasy Football Today - Derrick Henry Reaction and RB Replacements, Plus Five Big Topics! (11/01 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: November 1, 2021

The NFL's leading rusher could miss the rest of the season and we'll tell you what it means for the Titans and how Fantasy managers can replace Derrick Henry. We also react to the breaking news of the Adrian Peterson signing at the very end of the show (44:40) ... More news and notes (11:30) including a positive Christian McCaffrey update and then we recap Cowboys-Vikings (16:00). What the heck happened to the Vikings offense? ... Five big topics! Michael Carter (21:00), Eli Mitchell (27:30), Michael Thomas (34:30), the Broncos WRs (38:30) and some dynasty talk (41:30) ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. Tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. Derrick Henry, tough injury. Very, very unfortunate for the fantasy community. You just never think it can happen to Derrick Henry. He's going to be out at least six weeks with a foot injury, and this could be the return of Adrian Peterson. We'll talk about some of the options in that backfield

and in your fantasy backfield. We also have Jameis Winston tearing his ACL. And a lot of news. Maybe we'll get Christian McCaffrey back this week. That would be a silver lining. But it's Monday afternoon, and we're reeling a little bit here with all this injury news, but we've got to keep you updated. We've got to recap last night's very strange game.

I don't even know what happened to the Vikings offense last night. Very hard to diagnose. But we'll get into that. Plus five big topics. The emergence of Michael Carter, Eli Mitchell, what happens to Michael Thomas now with Jameis out for the season, and we'll talk a little bit of Dynasty today. What's going on, Chris? How was your Halloween? Good, good. I'm looking forward to this podcast,

and I would really, really like it if I knew what we were talking about. I sent you the notes. You did not you did not nope nope you didn't i checked this time to make sure i did okay i sent you earlier today what you said today's topics but there's other stuff that we're talking about yeah i know you put together a whole thing of notes i know it's just that you don't really how did i don't really think of me um as part of this show and so that you don't really think of me as part of this show. And so you just never think to send me the notes. It's okay. I'm sorry.

I understand. I'm just frazzled. It's all right. I'm only the lead singer. Well, this is definitely something Ace Ventura would do. Very sloppy work. All right. So let's start with Derek Henry.

Six to ten weeks right now is the timeline. Foot injury. Hopefully you have an IR spot. If you don't have an IR spot, I can obviously understand dropping him if you need the roster space, but there is a chance that he comes back for your fantasy playoffs.

So you have to make that decision. He leads the NFL with 937 rushing yards. Nick Chubb is second, 584. Chubb has played two fewer games. Yeah, and this is also wild in terms of yards per game. Henry leads the NFL 117.1. Chubb is second at 97.3. So he's 20 rushing yards per game ahead of Nick Chubb.

Another interesting thing, he's the eighth 2,000-yard rusher. The previous seven, all of them had lost at least one yard per carry on their average the following year. And if I remember correctly, I think Henry averaged the lowest yards per carry of the eight. I'm not sure about that. But I never thought he would

lose a full yard per carry. And he's at 4.3, and last year he was at 5.4. So, been a couple of bad games in a row in that regard for him. But that was just interesting. Yeah, I mean, he's only had like one big yard per carry game. He's only had two over five. Yeah, it's weird.

It's a little weird. I mean, it's been high volume. The volume is so... It's really hard to rush for seven yards per carry when you have 30 carries. Yeah. Like, that's just... That's really hard.

There's a lot of those four or five-yard, two, three, four-yard carries that you got to wait until you break the big one to boost the average. Yeah, I don't know. The thing with the 2,000-yard rushers is I think it feels sort of obvious because if you rush for 2,000 yards, definitionally, you had a historic season.

And so it's really hard to follow up a historic season with another one that's almost as historic. Yeah. He was on pace to do it, just not in the same efficiency. But regardless, let's spin it forward now. And from a waiver wire standpoint, what are you thinking about here with the Titans? They've got to bring someone in right now.

They have Jeremy McNichols and Dontrell Hilliard as the only running backs on their roster. They just placed Darrington Evans on IR, and I think he can't come back after being placed on IR for a second time. So his season's done. Like you mentioned, they're thinking about, they're going to work out Adrian Peterson. I guess that fits stylistically.

And he's been okay. You know, he was 35 years old last season. He wasn't terrible, but he'll be 36 years old this year, and that's one year older. And there aren't a lot of running backs who have been even good at 33 let alone 36 so i wouldn't expect a ton from adrian peterson but if they did give him you know 16 plus carries per week which seems reasonable he would probably be fantasy relevant but not a must-start guy the the hope would be that they trade for someone like marlon mack or ronald jones uh were the first two names that came to mind.

Bruce Arians already came out and said he's not particularly interested in trading Ronald Jones, which given Bruce Arians track record when it comes to saying things about Ronald Jones, probably means Ronald Jones has already been traded. I think it'd probably be a little foolish to, you got to have a little running back depth, right? So I don't, I won't get off topic here. I wouldn't trade Ronald Jones if I were the Bucks. I just, you want to have a little running back depth, right? I won't get off topic here. I wouldn't trade Ronald Jones if I were the Bucs. You want to have a little insurance there. Yeah, I think Marlon Mack makes a lot of sense.

If the Colts were interested in doing that to a divisional rival, I don't know if they would be. But if you're looking for a replacement, all that to say that if you're looking for a replacement for your fantasy team, you probably need to look elsewhere than the Tennessee Titans. And the good news is i'm sorry the good news is the trade deadline's tuesday afternoon so by the time you make your waiver claims at night you'll know the running back situation there if exactly if they don't do anything would mcnichols be your number one priority when you got boston scott out there in almost 70 of leagues and jordan howard in almost every league and you got Boston Scott out there in almost 70% of leagues

and Jordan Howard in almost every league and you got Mark Ingram available, you got David Johnson. I know it was a horrible game for him, but there are some running backs with some appeal, unlike most weeks. Where would McNichols rank? Yeah, the problem with McNichols

is he has 56 carries in five career seasons. He had 47 last year. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry. He only has seven so far this season. So I just don't know if they view him as someone who like he's had double digit carries once in his career and he had nine yards. So that's not great. I just yeah, I'm not sure they view him as someone who can get that kind of workload but if he was if they didn't add anybody he'd probably be behind boston scott for me still but i think that's probably it as far as running back i do think

you know carlos hyde would be in that same discussion, I guess, but not super excited about him and James Robinson is on IR. So all that to say that I don't think there's very many interesting running backs available on waivers this week. I think the wide receiver options are much better. Did you say James Robinson is on IR? No, no, no, no. He's day to day.

Oh, what I meant to say. I hope I didn't say he's on. I thought you did say that. I was like, if I did. No, no, no. He's day-to-day. That's what I meant to say. I hope I didn't say he's on. I thought you did say that. Go ahead and edit that out if I did. No, James Robinson, we actually got encouraging news this morning about James Robinson. He's day-to-day. I don't know. Maybe he misses one game.

I think they have the Bills this week. Is that right? Yes, they do. So you can miss the Bills game if you want, James Robinson. But yeah, all right. So we'll see what happens. I think obviously the offense is going to have to change and this could be, this, I could be huge for Tannehill and it could be huge for Julio Jones.

Obviously, AJ Brown is AJ Brown, but it might just be necessity here. They have to throw the football a little bit more and everybody's, if you buried Julio Jones, you know, hopefully he's back soon, but there's a lot of football left.

There's still half the season left. Yes. Yeah. All right. There is still half the season left. Derek Henry's dynasty value is really interesting. He's obviously the oldest, and correct me if I'm wrong.

He's the oldest stud running back in football. Not, I mean, I don't know if you want to count Cordaro patterson or something like that but yeah i mean let's take a look at heath's most recent running back dynasty rankings okay and um yeah he's older than i think the oldest one besides him is probably how old's austin eckler is he 26 i'm not sure and that in heath's rankings and they have like their age oh he does i just didn't look at that column literally that's two columns over i just didn't look so yeah he is 27 currently he is the only player above 26 he's the only player older than 26 inside of the top? Wow.

40. The only player old. Yeah. Only player older than 27. Only player older than 26 inside of the top 40, except for Melvin Gordon, who's 39. So, yeah. Alvin Kamara is a year younger.

Ezekiel is a year younger. But I think Derrick Henry. Yeah, his his his dynasty value has certainly taken a hit now and part of it is because when you're an outlier like derrick henry when you're like when part of your argument for a player is well he never gets hurt he's the only guy who can hold up to this kind of workload well it's harder to make that argument now that he's gotten hurt and you know who's to say that it will linger or be a continuing issue maybe it won't be but he no longer has that you know he no longer has that perfect track record and so it makes you wonder how he's going to hold up if he sees a similar workload. And frankly, I think the Titans probably deserve a lot of criticism

for giving him 28 carries in a game where he left in the first quarter with a foot injury. And 28 carries week after week. Yeah. He wasn't getting a typical Derrick Henry workload. He was getting... Yeah, he was averaging 27.4 carries per game.

Yeah, kind of crazy. But, you know, I think you could make the case that this helps his dynasty value because maybe it just takes a little bit of tread off the tire. Obviously, everyone's dynasty value at some point decreases as they get older. But, I don't know. I still think he's got another year of Derrick Henry in him.

I'm not like... Would you sell him for Michael Carter right now not like okay like would you sell him for michael carter right now in dynasty who would you rather have no i wouldn't because i i don't think there's a there's much of a chance of michael carter being like a legitimate difference maker whereas i think derrick henry could be next year still right okay look forward to getting into that maybe a little bit more on wednesday Heath. Here's the wild thing. If everybody finishes, his current number of rushing attempts

would have been ninth in the NFL last season. 219 would have just been ahead of Melvin Gordon for number nine in the NFL in 2020. Wow. All right, some more news for you. Seattle could get Chris Carson back after this week's bye, so we'll keep an eye on that. Christian McCaffrey could play this week or next week,

it's looking like right now. They got New England next week at Arizona, sorry, New England this upcoming week, week nine, and Arizona week 10. Sam Darnold's in the concussion protocol. The good news was on James Robinson. He's day-to-day. Devontae Adams did not practice,

but they're hoping to have him and their defensive coordinator, Joe Barry, back on Thursday. They're at Kansas City. Al Lazard was back. Oh, that's good. All right. And Mark Roosevelt is handling practice

for the first time since week four, I believe. Yeah, and they've got a marquee game at Kansas City next week. Yeah, I keep saying this week, next week. I'm just starting to say week nine, I believe. Yeah, and they've got a marquee game at Kansas City next week. Yeah, I keep saying this week, next week. I'm just starting to say week nine. Week nine. Denver sending Von Miller to the Rams for second and third round picks in 2022. Man, the Rams just

enjoyed this ride. I love it. They just give up everything. I don't know if I love it, but it's... They haven't made a first round pick. They traded a second and third, but they haven't made a first round pick since 2016 They traded a second and third, but they haven't made a first-round pick since 2016. They don't have another one until 2024. It's incredible. It's hard to win that way,

but there are some juggernauts right now in the NFC. It's pretty exciting, right? It's the Cowboys. Huge win. The Rams. The Packers. And I would say the Bucs, even though they're a two-loss team.

Yeah. They did win the Super Bowl. They got that Tom Brady guy. the Packers, and I would say the Bucs, even though they're a two-loss team. Yeah, no, they're... They did win the Super Bowl, right? They got that Tom Brady guy. And look, one of those losses came against the Saints, which they just, like, the Saints just have this team's number. Yeah, they can't beat them.

It's very weird. They must have beaten them in the playoffs last year, though. They did, yeah, yeah. Yeah, and the, you know, pressure rate is kind of, it's very subjective, it appears, because pro football focus has them with a very high pass rush grade. This is the Rams I'm talking about here.

Pro football reference has them below average in pressure rates, but high in hurries, and they lead the NFL in sacks, and now they have Von Miller. T.Y. Hilton out with a concussion. He's not going to play this week. They have a Thursday game against the Jets. Will Fuller will not practice this week. Just saw that come across.

Calvin Ridley, we know he's stepping away, hopefully for not too long, and we always wish him the best. Rob Gronkowski, hopefully back after the bye. Jalen Rager, ankle. Some stuff I didn't mention yesterday. Jets left tackle George Fant was carted off with an ankle injury. The Bengals right guard

Jackson Carman left with a back injury. The Chargers lost two defensive backs to injuries in the first half, Asante Samuel and Michael Davis. So those are big. Tyron Smith hurt his ankle. And that's a big one, obviously, for the Cowboys. Garrett Bowles left tackle for the Broncos. He left with an ankle injury. And they also lost a guy who's been arguably their best cornerback this year, Bryce Callahan. They're at Dallas next week. Cleveland with a couple of injuries here. Jack Conklin's going to miss some time starting right tackle.

He's already missed week six and seven. That was the Demetrik Felton week, one of them. So you know they can run without him, but still. It's a big deal, right tackle. Jack Conklin, dislocated elbow. And a lot of these injuries that happen during the game, you don't get a timeline. I don't have a timeline on John Johnson, their safety,

neck stinger. You don't need more injuries in the Niners secondary, but you got one. Jimmy Ward, safety left with a quad injury, and Kyle Shanahan said it was a pretty big concern. And for the Bears, Eddie Jackson, their safety left on, I think, the second play of the game. All right, we got the CBS Sports newsletter, CBS Sports Fantasy Football Today newsletter, written by Chris Towers, delivered right to you.

Yeah. He does send the notes, right? He sends them at least once a day to your inbox with the Fantasy Football Today newsletter. Go to cbssports.com slash newsletters. He's already sent you a Derrick Henry newsletter. So it's great stuff. It's very timely. It's waiver wire.

It's trade. It's start. It's sit. It's news. It's a lot of news that you just don't really see. Chris is on top of it. He knows all this stuff. So cbssports.com slash newsletters.

Topics today, Michael Carter, Eli Mitchell, Michael Thomas, a little Dynasty talk, and Broncos wide receivers. Very interesting stuff on Jerry Judy. I'm just going to leave it there as a teaser. And no Jacob Gibbs today.

So, yeah, just us. Me and Chris running the show. Chris, Dallas 20, Minnesota 16. For me, it was an agonizing fantasy loss that I had to Dave Richard. Dave Richard in the 2QB League

started Trey Lance and Mike White, and he beat me. Wow. Because of Justin Jefferson, basically. That's like, I think I beat someone with Kendall Hinton a couple weeks ago. Yeah. In that one.

I had Tom Brady. He had Trey Lance, and I lost by one. That's fun. Yeah yeah so what did you think of this game it was I don't know I mean Kirk Cousins threw the ball 4.8 yards per pass attempt that was his lowest air yards per pass attempt of the season they just looked off you know yeah and his um his air yards are down quite a bit. I think he has the third lowest intended air yards of any quarterback this season per next-gen stats.

His expected completion percentage is, I think, the ninth highest. Sorry, his completion percentage above expected is the ninth highest in the NFL, but it's a lot more short stuff than we've seen over the last few years I think we've particularly seen that with Adam Thielen has had a lot of shorter targets this year and you know you're talking about one touchdown in three of his last four games and when you're talking about shorter targets you're you're generally talking about targets that have a lower opportunity to score and he's been a really high touchdown rate over the last couple of seasons i think in large part one because they do take a lot of shots in the

play action game especially and and two because they run so much between the 20s that an inordinate amount of his throws come in the red zone when the passing rate goes up that changes but he still has a 5.1 percent touchdown rate it hasn't been a great couple of weeks for him but i think all things considered for the season kirk cousins still looks like a borderline top 12 qb so the intended air yards per pass attempt was 4.8 yesterday but the pre the three previous games 8.4 7.5 7.8 that's fine i mean that's you can certainly live with lower than where he was last year but that's fine i mean that's you can certainly live with lower than where he was last year but still okay yeah i mean i think mahomes for the year is

well matt ryan six point eight justin herbert six point seven when seven point two prescott seven point four mahomes seven point seven so it's i guess probably a pretty average range um dalvin cook with a rare off day you know these two teams the vikings especially it's like I guess, probably a pretty average range. Dalvin Cook with a rare off day. You know, these two teams, the Vikings especially, it's like you kind of know where they are, right? It's always like Cook's a stud. Jefferson, you're never sitting, even though he had a bad game. He dropped a pretty big pass on the sideline.

You're starting feeling. Yeah, you're starting feeling. Take the ups and downs, but he scores all the time. And then for the Cowboys, there's no guarantee that Dak Prescott's going to be back next week. So, great job by Cooper Rush. 325 yards, two touchdowns.

A heck of a throw by Cedric Wilson. Let's get him back there more. Who did he throw that to? CeeDee Lamb. I'm having trouble placing. 35 yards. It was like a reverse. And it was a really impressive throw. It was like a reverse.

It was a really impressive throw. It was like 50 yards in the air. On the money. I don't know. I'm struggling with it. First half or second half? Did I miss that play? I can't remember when it happened in the game.

I don't know. I was very much off Amari Cooper. That was obviously a huge mistake. He caught the game-winning touchdown, ended up with 122 yards and a touchdown. But if Dak does not play next week against the Denver Broncos week nine, how much are you going to trust those two wide receivers, Lamb and Cooper?

I think they'd both be in the wide receiver two discussion, I think. When Prescott's back, I think they're both probably in the wide receiver to discussion. I think when Prescott's back, I think they're both probably in that top 16 or so. But without him, I think it's more like top 24. Maybe maybe lamb is 20 to 24 and Cooper's 24 to 28, but it was a great game. It was really nice to see them both have a good game without Prescott. And I think a lot of it comes down to just there was the fact that they threw the ball a bunch in this game 41 times when they've been closer to 30 for the season, surprisingly. So I think that was a good sign.

And I talked about that in the preview, actually. If you look at their game log and when they throw a lot, it's the competitive games. And Denver next week, if Dak doesn't, I mean, crazy. If Dak doesn't play, I think any game can be competitive. Right, right. Maybe it's better for the wide receivers if Dak doesn't. I mean, crazy. If Dak doesn't play, I think any game can be competitive. Right, right. Maybe it's better for the wide receivers if Dak doesn't play. I wouldn't go that far.

But you know what I'm saying. More pass attempts. Yeah. Yeah. And if you're worried about Dalton Schultz having a bad game, he was still third on the team in targets. He still played his normal role in terms of snaps and routes. So I'm not worried about Dalton

Schultz. Bad games happen. I'd only be worried if Rush were under center again. Quite frankly, I'd be worried about all of them. You could say, yes, Cooper Rush did have a good game, but there's no guarantee he would have another good game against Denver. That's a backup quarterback. They could be up and

down. Tyler Conklin, nice game. You could always get something. You never, they're going to be highs and lows with Conklin, but he's not a useless fantasy tight end. He's someone you could turn to in the right situation. Dallas struggles against tight ends. And he's 27% rostered.

Okay. Let's go to our five big topics. And let's start with number one. Bada bing, bada boom. Michael Carter. Is he emerging right now? So we'll talk about him. He was started in 28% of leagues. Carter is rostered in 84% of leagues.

He had a season high in carries, a season high in catches. And I think a big development, Chris, is that Robert Sala did not rule out the possibility that Mike White keeps the job. He's going to start again on Thursday against the Colts. And he did not, I know, I'm sure you're aware of this.

He did not throw a ball more than 15 yards the entire game. Yeah, I think he had like a 3.7 intended area yards per attempt, which is wildly low. I mean, Kirk Cousins at 4.7 was very low. Right. And he's thrown to his running backs just a ton. I think 40% of his attempts

in his, in his appearance in relief of Zach Wilson last week were running backs and gosh,

it was probably a pretty similar rate this week because I think Tyron Johnson and Michael Carter combined for 16. So that I don't, I think Tyron Johnson and Michael Carter combined for 16. So that I don't,

I think it would be kind of dumb if they started Mike White over Zach Wilson, but maybe do more stuff like this with Zach Wilson, you know, maybe make his life a little easier because he's been running for his life. It's a good idea, but you know, I just think the tendencies are different for the two quarterbacks,

right? And Corey Davis didn't play in this game. You might factor that in, although he did play in week seven and they still, and Mike White still threw 40% of his passes to running backs. 20 out of 49. So about 41% this week. My gosh.

But yeah. All right. So, so it's relevant because I don't, personally, I don't think Michael Carter can be a fantasy difference maker if he's catching two to three passes a game, which is what he was doing with Zach Wilson.

Yes. Right? And he's barely startable in that, yeah. And his next two games are the Colts, who are third, his next two games are against top three defenses against the run. I think it's the Colts and the Bills. Yeah, Colts and Bills.

Then the schedule gets much, much better. But what do you think? Do you think we should consider selling high? Because people are very fired up right now about Michael Carter. But this was by far his best game. Yeah, I think if someone's viewing him as maybe a top 15 running back rest of season, which I don't know, I guess with all the injuries, maybe he might actually be. But if someone views him that way, I think that would probably be the right decision to try to sell high on him. But that's not to say that i think the bottom's gonna fall

out i do think you know he did play um season high let's see what was it 74 percent snaps something like that 70 percent snap share above 70 for two straight weeks he's been uh running routes i think on 70% of their pass plays over the last couple of weeks as well. So I think this is a very good sign for Michael Carter. Like you said, I don't expect much from him as a rusher. But the passing game role, especially with Mike White, seems locked in. So I would trust him as an RB2 for the time being.

Would you rather have Michael Carter or Miles Gaskin? Man, probably Carter, but I just, like I've been wrong on Miles Gaskin at every point this season, so I don't know why that would change suddenly. Everybody's been wrong every week on Miles Gaskin. I have no idea what to expect

of his usage. I think he had a season high in Snapshare this week, which is a good sign, but I think I'd rather have Carter. I think Gaskin, a little off subject, I know we're talking about Michael Carter, but

as long as Malcolm Brown's out, I think Gaskin's going to have a very valuable role, and I know he had a bad game, but he had 15 touches at Buffalo. Ahmed was involved. He had eight touches. But the Malcolm Brown injury, I think, is actually pretty big. Just don't know how long he's out for.

But the next two games for the Dolphins are... At least the next two. Yeah, Houston and Baltimore. And then you get the Jets after that. So I think Gaskin, I think he could be all right. It's a disappointing game, but it was Buffalo. Somehow he only played 58% of the snaps in this one, Miles Gaskin. That's all right, though.

I mean. It's fine, but last year he was above 61% in every game. He's not going to be last year. Just, yeah, we'll accept that. Just can he score some touchdowns? That'd be nice. All right. So look, measured expectations.

But this is the kind of player, a rookie, that we do see, like five of them last year, has a big six-game stretch down the stretch of your season. I don't think he's going to go Jonathan Taylor or J.K. Dobbins on us here unless he's catching a lot of passes. So we'll keep that in mind. All right, second question. Maybe this guy is.

Elijah Mitchell. Is he possibly an RBb1 this one comes from june and or the j-o-o-n june not the month uh we're going to answer that question right after this break on fantasy football today we'll be right back did you know 66 of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate? Don't let your project become part of this statistic. A quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime, financial penalties, and keep you safe. Don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money. Click before you dig. Ensure your next project is safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca.

It's free. It's easy. It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. So we just got done talking about Michael Carter. Let's focus on a rookie running back who per game is 16th in non-PPR and 19th in PPR. That is Eli Mitchell. So is Eli Mitchell possibly an RB1? That's the question from June and your answer, Chris Towers. In any given week, he possibly can be an RB1, but he is not an RB1 moving forward.

I mean, you look at the last two games, as good as this running game is, you don't expect someone to average six and seven and a half yards per carry. That's not going to happen. So he's been really good, and seven and a half yards per carry. That's not going to happen. He's been really good, but first, how many RB1s have, what, .7 catches per game, I think is what he's at right now,

and.7 targets per game as well. He doesn't have the passing game role. He's not Derrick Henry, who would be the guy who may have done that. And so I think he is a better version of the Damian Harris. Gosh, here are some other examples of that type of running back right now. Antonio Gibson. No, I can't even see that. Josh Gage Jacobs. Gibson, though, is 12-13 carries.

So Harris is a great comp. I like Mitchell more because I think it's a better offense. I think they're going to be able to run more efficiently. But the thing is, with either of those guys, they could have a good game running the ball and still end up as like RB25 if they don't get in the end zone. Let me tell you where Mitchell's finished. Yeah yeah i'll tell you where he's finished he's made he's had five games four starts but he basically started the week one you know he's played 60 of the snaps i think in every game he's played and he has 17 or more carries in four of them so here's where he

has finished in non-ppr 6th 33rd 37th 37th, 5th, and 4th. So that is... Yes. But 100 yards and a touchdown in three of five games. At Detroit, against the Colts, and against the Bears. Bears don't have very good run defense, by the way. So far.

So that's three top six finishes and two finishes outside the top 30. Only thing there is that we do have two more running backs playing tonight, so it's possible that it could be a little bit lower for this week. But no, because he finished fourth this week, so it's going to be top six no matter what. Anyway, in full PPR, 15th, when he finished sixth in week one, he was 15th in PPR, sixth and non, 15th and full, 37th, 39th,

13th in PPR in week seven and 9th, 15th and 4th, 37th, 39th, 13th in PPR in week 7, and 8th this week. So that's three top 15 finishes and two outside the top 36, barely. And yeah. That's the difficult thing.

He had really, really good games against the Lions and Colts. You can't reasonably ask for a running back to do much better than 100 yards and a touchdown. He did last week or in week eight, but generally speaking, that's a really, really good outcome. And he wasn't an RB1.

So I think that kind of answers the question. Can he be an RB1? It would take an outlier efficiency season and an outlier touchdown season from him moving forward for that to be the case. That's just the kind of running back he is. We've seen with Damian Harris, who I don't think will be as good of a rusher.

When he gets one touchdown, he's a top 24 running back. When he gets two, he's a top 12 running back. Mitchell may be a little better than that because he's got more big playability. I want to talk about that. I'm glad you brought that up. He's very much in the Kyle Shanahan mold for running backs where he's a smaller guy.

He's really fast. We've seen that type of running back have a lot of success here. Jeff Wilson. I'm blanking on the guy who came into this season as the starter. Raheem Mostert. Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida. I'm blanking on the guy who came into this season as a as the starter uh he most are he most are Matt Brita those guys have all been very good in this offense it's for stretches so um that's clearly a type of player who works well in his system yeah so right now Eli Mitchell is fourth in the NFL in yards per game rushing yards per, behind Henry Chubb and Dalvin Cook.

And only Nick Chubb has more carries of 20 or more yards than Eli Mitchell. So Chubb has six. There are four players who have five carries of 20-plus yards. Lamar Jackson, Damian Harris, Eli Mitchell, and Jonathan Taylor. And Mitchell has fewer carries than Harris or Taylor. He has five more carries than Lamar Jackson.

So very, very impressive in terms of breaking off these runs. So I think we're going to say no on RB one. It's possible in non PPR, but it's very, very unlikely in full PPR because I mean, I can give you the stat if you want, but just to sum it up,

I'll just tell you this in full PPR in the last five seasons, there have never been, there have not been more than two. There have not been more than two running backs to finish top 24 with fewer than 20 catches in any season. There's been usually two per season each of the last three years. But only three running backs have finished top 16 in the last five seasons with fewer than 20 catches. Derrick Henry twice, Nick Chubb, and LeGarrette Blount. So you're looking at an RB2 in Eli Mitchell.

Last topic on this, sorry. Someone you're going to start every week at. Absolutely. I think so. Look, I sat him for Khalil Herbert, and I don't regret it. He had a better game than Khalil Herbert, but there's no reason why what happened to Khalil Herbert in week eight can't happen to Eli Mitchell in week nine. A lot of work and just not a great game.

One thing you do get, though, reliably from the 49ers is about a little more than a rushing touchdown per game by a running back over the last two seasons. It's pretty reliable. Is Trey Lance a problem? Because in the one game that Mitchell started with Trey Lance, Lance had 16 freaking carries. How selfish.

And only nine for Mitchell. Do you think that's a problem if they go to Lance? I think to a certain extent. I mean, obviously Trey Lance is going to keep the ball on read option plays a lot more than Jimmy Garoppolo is. Garoppolo did score a touchdown on a read option play this week, I think. Yeah, I think he had two rushing touchdowns. But yeah, it does limit perhaps the floor for Mitchell.

But the other thing you have to keep in mind is that rushing quarterbacks tend to help running backs efficiency on a per yard per carry basis. And so already being in an incredibly efficient offense, there are going to be more opportunities for Elijah Mitchell to break even bigger plays. If he's playing with Trey Lance, if the defense makes the wrong read on one of those read option plays. So I do think it comes out in the wash.

I think their running game will be better, even if the distribution might be slightly different if Trey Lance is the starter. All right, next topic from Chris Carmichael. What are your thoughts on the return of Michael Thomas? Ooh, that's like the return of Michael Myers, Halloween 4. The return of Michael Thomas without Jameis Winston now. So I think this is like the third week in a row where we've been

talking about the return of michael thomas and the problem with that discussion is michael thomas has not been spotted on a practice field yet so i don't know how close he is you know nick underhill um i believe he's with new orleans football.com now i think he started his own site but he was a long time times picky reporter i believe um he has made it sound like they're michael thomas may not be particularly close right now or at least he doesn't seem have any reason to think he is close right now and so i'm pretty concerned i had michael thomas as a sell low in last week's newsletter on wednesday where i talk about trade candidates and it's not good for him that Jameis Winston is out you know obviously I don't think Trevor Simeon would be good for anybody but um if Taysom Hill's the quarterback that offense is going to

move the ball decent well I believe but it's going to be very low pass volume and we've seen this year the Saints are thrilled to not have to throw the ball if they don't have to. And so I think he could see like a 35% target share with Taysom Hill and still only have like seven targets per game. So that's a bit of a concern for sure. Yeah. I mean,

his 16 game pace in four games with Taysom Hill last year was 120 catches, 1,372 yards, which is very low for 120 catches, but, and2 yards, which is very low for 120 catches. Very good. And zero touchdowns. Yeah, the zero touchdowns thing would be... He's not going to put up big touchdown numbers,

I think, with anyone, but with Hill... My expectation for him with Hill would probably be something like a six or seven touchdown pace for a full season. Bigger question to me is what happens to Kamara? Because Kamara had zero, one, two, and seven catches in four games

with Taysom Hill. That's a huge deal. Michael Thomas played in those games and Michael Thomas had a 32% target share, so you keep that in mind. There were some concerning things with alvin camara in this game too you know with mark ingram making his debut alvin camara played his smallest snap share of the season falling down to 67 after he had been at least 82 in every game since week

one um and ran a route on just 46% of the team's passing plays. Mark Ingram wasn't really involved in the passing game all that much. He was like 25% route share, but Camara dropping to 46% is a big deal. If it remains the case, I don't know. They keep winning. So I guess you can't criticize Sean Payton.

I don't understand what he's done with his offense this season. Like now you can't criticize him though. Like it just keeps understand what he's done with his offense this season. No, you can't criticize him, though. It just keeps working, so that's fine. But I don't know how you could have so many games where Alvin Kamara is just a non-factor in the passing game. It just does not make sense to me. But I'm not an NFL head coach. I'm not 5-2 or 6-2 or whatever he is this season.

So I guess it doesn't really matter. But it's concerning for fantasy, for sure, with Taysom Hill coming back and the role with Mark Ingram. Yeah, Taysom Hill I still think could be my number one waiver wire priority. I have a hard time passing up Austin Scott, but Taysom Hill I think could be a real difference maker. I think he would probably be a top 12 quarterback or very close for me,

but he also hasn't played since that concussion or practiced since that concussion, so we don't know how far he is away from returning. All right, we got a question here from Anthony. Topic number four, the Broncos wide receivers. I teased it. I said there was something

very interesting. I think I oversold it a little bit, but this is what Vic Fangio said about Jerry Judy. A couple of his catches were big. I think his ankle bothered him a little bit there late, but it was a good decision to not play him last week, even though he was medically cleared. He needed a week

of practice. Hopefully he'll come out of the game feeling better, and it got a little calloused from playing football for the first time since week one. Meanwhile, the athletic said for much of the day, it almost looked as if the Broncos were using Jerry Judy as a decoy in his first game since the week one opener. He ran back and forth across the formation in motion, pantomiming run fakes or simply moving from one slot spot to the other. But his targets in the passing game were limited for much of the game so chris i just took those two things as he's not he was not 100 healthy and we should not take this game in which bridgewater only threw 26 times by

the way we should not take this as uh as you know emblematic of what's going to happen rest of season yeah he plays 71 of the snaps ran around on 77 of the season. Yeah, he plays 71% of the snaps, ran around on 77% of the pass plays. Those are probably lower than you would expect moving forward, but not so low that you shouldn't think that he's healthy. He did say today that he feels fine after playing,

so that's a good sign. Now, I expect his role is going to grow. I don't know if he's going to be the number one guy in this offense. Cortland Sutton's very good know if he's going to be the number one guy in this offense. Cortland Sutton's very good, and he's shown this season that he really is back to 100% and is a very good wide receiver.

So maybe Jerry Judy's a 1B. Maybe he's a wide receiver 2 for them. But I think the bigger thing with his return is... And the return of... Hold on. I've got the pronunciation. Albertbert okua okuwebanam okuwebanam yes i was you know i was working on that this morning and then i completely you have to look in a mirror and say it you know alberto everybody calls him alberto alberto yeah

um i think that's worse for no offense who who didn't really play a particularly big role. I think he had his lowest snap share since, yeah, since Alberto's injury in week two. He had been above 87% in five straight games and was below 80% this week. So I think that's a concern for Noah Fant, but I think Jerry Judy, maybe he doesn't quite get going until week 12

when they come back from their bye. You know, maybe it's just more of the same for the next couple of weeks, but I think Jerry Judy is going to be fine. Would you rather have Jerry Judy or Michael Thomas? Jerry Judy. He's active. Would you rather have Jerry Judy?

That's correct. Would you rather have Jerry Judy or Michael Pittman? Pittman. Okay. I've been very wrong on him. Yeah. I dropped him in a league weeks ago. He was like 101st in yards per outrun

and targets per outrun last season. He was playing a big role and they just weren't throwing to him. And that has changed in a huge way sorun last season. He was playing a big role and they just weren't throwing to him. And that has changed in a huge way so far this season. So it's a good sign. He took a leap. One big dynasty take.

That's our last topic. One big dynasty take. Very vague. Got anything? One big dynasty take. Maybe I should look at the... Well, maybe I should send them to you. But I actually did send this to you.

No, you sent this to me. I mean, Derrick Henry, I think, is a big one. And I think, generally speaking, it's an interesting time at both wide receiver and running back because at wide receiver, have any of the... Besides Jamar Chase and maybe C.D. Lamb, have any of the besides like Jamar Chase and maybe CD lamp.

Have any of the young, young wide receivers really taken that leap? Because for the most part, the best wide receivers in fantasy right now are older. Jefferson. Okay. Justin Jefferson. Sure. He's amazing. But, you know, Devante Adams, Terry kill.

D-Bone digs. D-Bone. You guys are all like 27, 26 to 27. Yeah. D-Bone's 24, I think. Well, we didn't. Those guys are all like 26 to 27. Yeah, Debo's 24, I think. Yeah, he's a third-year guy. But Marquise Brown, he's definitely leapt. But have they passed?

No, it's been a bad year. We talked about that a couple weeks ago. The year two wide receivers, they're not getting it done right now. I still think the future's very bright for Higgins, maybe even the near future. Iyuk, you've got to have a lot of concerns. Claypool, there's a takeaway.

What am I supposed to do there with Claypool? Iyuk, this is more of a short-term thing, although I still like him long-term. If you can get him in a dynasty league, if you can get him for a second-round pick, I would try to do that right now. But I, you can actually led all 49ers wide receivers and routes and snaps

yesterday and didn't do anything. That's a very good sign. I think it's a bad, it is a good sign, but he wouldn't be nice if he had a good game with that thing. He has seven targets in like 58 yards, right? Something like that.

Let's see the final numbers on IU. Maybe 44 yards, right? Something like that? Let's see the final numbers on Iuke. Maybe 44 yards? 45. Four catches for 45 yards. That's a season high. Yeah. All right, so it's an encouraging development there. We'd like to see more.

But yeah, I still think there's a changing of the guard that's going to happen at wide receiver. And I think the emergence of Justin Jefferson last season and the emergence of Jamar chase so far this season, along with, I think AJ Brown still being 24. I think that's probably the top, the top three moving forward in my eyes.

Um, so yeah, but I, I still think like the Metcalf is right there. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You don't know who his quarterback is going to be next year, but he's right there.

Yeah, that was an interesting game for the Seahawks. 21, all but two of their targets, I think, went to Lockett and Metcalf. Smart. What are you guys doing defensively? I guess so, but it's like not that hard to figure out what's going on my big takeaway dynasty wise is every week that goes by you just have to wonder what cam acres role is going to be next year

really what daryl henderson's role is going to be next year because he's doing a really good job and then also james robinson has had a great year too. So I just feel like if you have ETN, if you have Cam Akers, you just don't know what to expect. Oh, we got breaking news. All right. Titans are signing Adrian Peterson.

Cool. Okay. Yeah. What do you think? What do you think? I have a hard time seeing myself ranking him consistently higher than like 26th. Like Damienris is usually right

around 24 and i i don't see any reason i think adrian peterson's going to be better than damien harris moving forward no but if damien harris were on waivers i would spend a whole lot of fab on him he'd be but he'd be a great but i don't think damien harris is going to be like okay i wouldn't drop all of my fab on ad Peters and I would have to be really, really desperate at running back. And I don't think I'm that desperate in any of my leagues. So I wouldn't be making him that big of a priority. I think, I think I'd rather have Boston Scott.

I know his, his time of relevance may be shorter, but what we saw yesterday, I think I would rather have him than Adrian Peterson. Okay. Is Peterson going to play this week? Oh, I don't know. But, all right. Per game, when he plays,

you could have the entire season beginning in week 10. I don't have their schedule in front of me. Yeah, I think he's flex-worthy if he's the starting running back. Don't know how it's going to play out here. They might bring in someone else, too. They might make a trade.

Yeah, I would expect he's going to average right around 60 to 70 total yards per game if he's the starter moving forward, right? And probably not a lot of catches, probably very few catches, probably mean a decent touchdown rate, but certainly not Derek Henry's. I think it's, it's going to be better for Ryan Tannehill than it is better for any of the running backs that they add, unless they go out and add someone legit. I don't think Adrian Peterson is legit. I think he's 36 years old and

it's really, really incredible how fine he is as an NFL running back. He could have quit by now, but he's apparently too legit to quit. We got to go. I agree that that's probably the show. All right. Thanks so much, everybody for, for watching and listening fantasy to fantasy football today. Check out FFT and five,

Chris and Dan Schneier on tonight slash tomorrow morning to recap Monday night football, the big giants upset of the Kansas city chiefs, roughly for the chiefs. And we'll talk to you tomorrow with the Waver Wire and a much more Adrian Peterson talk on Fantasy Football.