Fantasy Football Today - Deshaun Watson Reaction; Everyone is a Bust (Part One) (08/01 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 1, 2022

Deshaun Watson has been handed a six game suspension, subject to appeal. We react to the big news. Jamey is higher on Watson than Dave is. Why is Dave a little hesitant to buy in? Does this change anything for the rest of the Browns (8:15)? Is Amari Cooper a Round 5 pick now? ... We tell you about the biggest news from over the weekend (15:45). Within this, we debate Javonte Williams vs. Ezekiel Elliott before getting into more news (20:15) that Fantasy managers need to know ... Everyone is a Bust! We make cases against the Top 6 players in Fantasy! Do we buy these bust cases? We talk about Jonathan Taylor (33:15) and Christian McCaffrey followed by Austin Ekeler (41:10), Cooper Kupp (45:50), Justin Jefferson (48:55) and Derrick Henry (52:30) ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? I had no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet.

He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. It is August, and we've got a big show to kick off the month. We've got football this week, the Hall of Fame game coming up on Thursday, Jacksonville and the Raiders. Preseason starts in full swing the week after that, and we've got position previews beginning on Thursday this week, so it is officially fantasy football season,

and we are officially excited as hell to get going here. But we do have to talk about Deshaun Watson as he's been handed a six-game suspension, which is still subject to appeal from the NFL. Welcome, everybody, and happy Monday. Happy fantasy football season. Adam Azer, Dave Richard, Jamie Eisenberg here on Fantasy Football Today. We'll not have time for your emails, most likely, but send them in at fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. Jamie's all dressed sharply because he was just on CBS Sports HQ reacting to the Deshaun Watson news. Let's react to it right now.

Jamie, what's your take? Six-game suspension. Again, still, the NFL could appeal, and then it would go to Roger Goodell. So I don't know if Deshaun Watson is out of the woods right now, but if it is a six-game suspension, give me your basic reaction here, and then we'll get into the rankings and the draftings and all that.

I'd be surprised if the NFL appealed this, although the Calvin Ridley suspension just keeps ringing in my head that he got a year for what he did. But in any event, I think when think, you know, when you look at, uh, Watson's fantasy value, you know, he's at that position where, you know, you, you swing for the fences and he's got number one upside. He's got top 10 upside. He's got top five upside.

And so if you can survive the first six games and we know that it's easy to take, you know, a second quarterback, unless it's a, you know, super flex or two could be league. Um, I mean, he's, he's right he's right now, I ranked him 12th. I wouldn't be surprised if I put him in the top 10. On a per game basis, he has that upside. We've certainly seen it with lesser talent around him. Now he's got an amazing offensive line, quality coach, and some decent weapons.

Not the full weaponry that you would like to see, but he'll make enough plays with his legs. So if you can survive the first six games of the season, you know, maybe you're three and three, you get that guy back for week seven on, you got a pretty good chance to win your league if you're running back and receiver depth is as good as it hopefully can be.

Yeah, in his rookie season in 2017, he took the world by storm, 19 touchdowns in seven games, six starts, and he was the number one quarterback per game since then in four point per passing touchdown leagues on a per game basis, Watson has been number four, number four, number six,

and in six point for passing touchdown leagues, he's been number six per game, three straight seasons. So he's never finished higher than fourth, but you know, he's, he's been kind of hampered by low pass volume, maybe some bad touchdown luck, that kind of stuff.

He's been great, though. Dave, we talked about how you can draft Trey Lance, who's been a riser. You can draft Trey Lance before you draft a guy like Rogers or Cousins or maybe even Stafford, Carr, something like that. Maybe you could take the same approach with Watson. If you could draft Watson and then draft a steady starter or something like that. Maybe you could take the same approach with Watson and if you could draft Watson and then draft a steady starter

or something like that, who would you draft first at this point? Trey Lance or Deshaun Watson? Trey Lance. I would rather have the chance at Lance for the first six weeks of the season and I'll know where he stands for those six games.

If he's good, he's my quarterback the rest of the year and he should be good week one against Chicago, week two against Seattle. So I'm expecting Trey Lance to get off to a good start statistically and to keep the job. But Jimmy Garoppolo, I don't see being on the 49ers. He'll have job security. He'll be fine.

So I'm taking Trey Lance out of him. I'm taking Kirk Cousins ahead of him. I'm taking Derek Carr ahead of Deshaun Watson. I drew the line at Tua Tunga-Vailoa, and I do think that Tua does have some upside, but he doesn't have the same type of upside as Deshaun Watson. So Watson's going to be lower for me. He's going to be 16th, and we're assuming he's going to be exactly the same player that he was when we last saw him play in Houston. Now he's going to Cleveland. It's a completely different situation. I think it's

the worst receiving core that he's ever had to deal with. I am not certain that they are just going to unleash Deshaun Watson and let him throw like crazy. They might, but I would imagine that he'll be reined in quite a bit. He was reined in at times at Houston, but for the most part, he had his way and he got to throw quite a bit. And he was not only hyper-efficient, but he scored a lot of touchdowns. I am nervous about that in Baltimore. Or Baltimore. In Cleveland. When he comes back, he's playing Baltimore.

He's playing Cincinnati, Buffalo, Miami. His schedule when he comes back is tough. The easy part of the Browns schedule, no question about it, it's those first six games. It's a good reason to get behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and they can help you get off to a real fast start on your fantasy team.

But I'm not convinced that Deshaun Watson's going to come back and be a top six fantasy quarterback. Pretty much any other passer that's got high upside, maybe not as much upside as Watson, but high enough upside, I'll take for the full fantasy season. Remember, these first six games, man, that's almost half of your fantasy regular season. So I totally get the idea of putting Watson on your team. I'll do it in round 12. I'll do it. I'll put him on my bench

in round 12 just to see what happens. But there's no guarantee that he's going to be worth a round 8 pick or something like that. He he could be outstanding but he could also be a bus and there's definitely room for him to be a pain in the butt on your bench for the first six weeks of the season okay jamie i don't know if there's anything you wanted to respond i just think you're probably more optimistic about his performance it seems yeah i mean i again i'm trusting the talent i i don't really care about the schedule when it comes to him. I'm not sold on Baltimore's defense being great, by the way,

especially watching Hamilton try to cover some of his own teammates yesterday. In any event, I think, you know, talent will win out here. I think he's proven to be one of the best fantasy quarterbacks. I'm hoping the time off will not hinder that. I do think that his system will be great. I think this would be the most protected that he's been. And in terms of being held back, I can't imagine that they made the investment that they did in him to say,

go be Baker Mayfield. You know, go be game manager. You know, they're going to let him play. And they're going to let him make, you know, plays to what I would assume they, in their mind, would allow them to, you know, get to a point where they're competing for a Super Bowl. And he has that type of upside, that type of talent. Okay. They've been 28th in pass attempts

each of the past two seasons. Yeah, that's going to change. So what? I agree. I don't think they're going to be 28th, but I don't think they're going to be 8th. Well, what do you think? A middle of the pack?

Maybe. Maybe a little below. All the 15. Yeah. I don't know. I mean, I could see them being a 20th or something. I still feel like they're a run-heavy team. If they're not a run-heavy team, then what does that mean for Nick Chubb?

Oh, it means it's big trouble for Nick Chubb. Well, they could be just a better offensive team to begin with. It could be, yeah. Or it could mean more catches for Chubb. And remember, look, it's not like he needs his passing prowess just to be the reason why he's a good fantasy quarterback. He's going to play his life. Dave, Mr. Unite Us All, I like that, says,

Dave, last week you said in a super flex you would aim for two of the first 15 quarterbacks. Do you like Watson enough to make it two of the first 16 quarterbacks? Sure. Yeah, absolutely. And then you know what you've got do with with uh prioritizing a third quarterback because you got to fill in those first six games okay and you don't want it to be jacoby percent something right you got to aim higher than jacoby and somebody said mcgruber great underrated movie said gonna be hard to separate my personal feelings from fantasy implications with the watson news and i'll just say you know we're not going to get into that. It's a personal decision. We're just going to give the fantasy analysis. You know, it's a sensitive

subject and I get that. But at this point, I think all we can do is just give the fantasy analysis. All right, let's finish up this fantasy analysis with the rest of the Browns. Okay. So when do you draft? You guys talked about Sean Watson. When do you draft Nick Chubb? I never moved Chubb. You know, with the wide range of Watson not being suspended to missing the entire season. You know, I think his role in the offense is solidified. You know, if there was no Kareem Hunt, he'd be ranked as a top five guy. Unfortunately, because of Kareem Hunt and potentially whatever they decide to do

with Dearness Johnson and maybe Jerome Ford, if one of those guys get moved. You know, Chubb is still going to be a contender to lead the NFL in rushing. He's going to be limited as a pass catcher. So, you know, he's got 1,200 to 1,500-yard rushing potential, you know, 200 to 300-yard receiving potential. He's got double-digit touchdown potential. And so he's a pick round two in non-PPR, round three in PPR, just because of his, you of his lack of involvement in the

passing game. Kareem Hunt is still a high end flex, lottery ticket type of guy as we were ranking the handcuffed running backs. He's near the top of the list, if not at the top. And you just know what you're getting. He's going to be heavily involved, especially with the receiving core looking like it is. I think

he'll be heavily involved in the passing game. So those two guys really didn't move, and I'm not going to move them at all as well. All right. What about Amari Cooper, Dave? I've got him in round seven. I'm not excited about him. I think he'll be compiler guy, someone who's just he'll get a decent amount of targets each week. He'll get you a floor of around 10, 12 PPR points per week.

He'll score a few times. I don't see him being a dynamo. Certainly without Deshaun Watson, it's not going to happen. You almost don't want to use him the first six weeks of the season if you don't have to. But he'll have a little bit more upside. Maybe he hits that floor way more often in the first six weeks, and then you up that number closer to 15 for the last 11 games

that they're with Deshaun Watson. When would you draft him if Watson were not suspended at all? He'd be much higher for me. He'd probably be in that round four or five range. He's in round five for me now. I mean, you deal with whatever you get in the first six weeks and then difference maker the rest of the way. There's enough receivers that you can take in round five.

There certainly are, but there aren't as many that have the upside that he has with the amount of targets that he's going to get from this guy. I mean, I don't know. If he was not suspended, he'd be a top 10 wide receiver. I remember taking him in the middle of the third round in a draft before. Obviously, I did it with – it was after the Watson trade. So Watson and Cooper were on the Browns. I did it as if Watson were not going to be suspended.

But that was in my mind. Right when we start talking about T. Higgins right there in the middle of round three, that felt like a great spot for Cooper. The number one wide receiver for Sean Watson is always a fantasy super superstar. It's been Deandre Hopkins. It was Will Fuller. And then when Will Fuller got suspended, it was Brandon cooks for the last six games of that season. Um, so I don't know, David felt, felt like you're a little lower than I thought you'd be on Cooper. Yeah, I'm not as excited.

He's going to get funneled targets. There's so much upset. You know who I am excited about, though? It's because of the draft value is David Njoku. Before we get to that... His value is going to improve, though. And his value will improve. But he's going to end up being drafted

as a top 12 tight end. I'll get to him, I promise. I just want to know, is there a second Cleveland-wide receiver worth drafting, or should we just wait six weeks? Njoku's that guy. Yeah, I think you waited out. I mean, you've gotten the reports about the connection with Peoples Jones.

David Bell, I believe, is still on the pop list. I know he hasn't done anything yet. So we'll see what happens there, because he's going to be the slot receiver along with Cooper. But when they go three wide, he'll probably be the one playing inside and a guy that coming out of college certainly proved that he can be a high-volume catch guy as well.

I think, though, Peoples-Jones will be the type of receiver that the MVSs, the big play guys that you just can't rely on week in week out but you know can be a two touchdown guy on a certain week uh much better dfs play but um yeah i think you're better off just you know kind of waiting it out you know week four week five depending on how the waiver looks for you you know get them a week ahead of time two weeks ahead of time before watson comes back and then maybe you have uh not a breakout player but you know somebody that can end up being the third receiver or three three-receiver league. So do we draft Najoku? I can't stash a second tight end, I think, for six weeks.

Or do we just pick him up later in the year? Again, I think you'll get enough production from Jacoby Brissett. As bad as Brissett is, it's not like he's not going to connect with his receivers, and they're not going to make plays. They're not going to make the same type of plays going to connect with his receivers, and they're not going to make plays. They're not going to make the same type of plays that they'll make with Watson, but they're still going to make plays. But where do you have Njoku ranked?

Huh? Where do you have Njoku ranked? I'm getting to it right now. So he'll be, as Dave said, right in the neighborhood of top 12 guys, with Pat Fryermuth and Irv Smith and Dawson Knox. There's a clear top 11 for me that no joke who won't crack so i won't put him ahead of koko met but in those touchdown dependent guys um in ppr i probably would take a chance on the joke ahead of them but i'm saying where do you touch

down guys where do you rank now where did you have ranks yeah yeah prior to watson he was like 17 right that's what i'm saying it's like oh why am I going to stash that for six weeks when I don't know that the payoff is going to be that great? Well, I had him ranked. My rankings were with the thought of Watson being suspended a full year. I know. If we think he's not going to basically be worth rostering for six weeks, it's going to be...

Then you shouldn't draft him. Right, that's what I'm saying. Well, that's how you feel. Again, I think he's still going to have some level of production. Right, okay. He's not putting up zero. I won't believe it.

Yeah, he's not, but it's going to be hard to take him as a setter. And it's an easy schedule. Remember, these first six weeks for Cleveland are easy. Run it down. The first four are probably Carolina, Jets, Steelers, Falcons. Steelers might not be. Steelers could be tough. Carolina could be tricky.

Yeah, actually, Carolina, Pittsburgh might not be. Jets and Falcons should be pretty easy. Then you have the Chargers and then the Patriots. Not according to Dean Pease. Chargers are going to have to throw and play from behind. Brissette's going to be under pressure all game long. If Derwin James is covering tight ends, are you going to start David Njoku with Jacoby Brissette in week five?

And then the Patriots are the best against tight ends every year. Not unless Njoku's been on fire the first four weeks of the season. You're drafting Njoku late with the idea that he's your streamer to begin the year, and if he catches fire, then you've got a tight end solved all year. Well, you'll hear more about this on CBS Sports HQ at noon Eastern every day for the rest of your life, because it is fantasy football today time. The video version, hosted by Jamie,

will be on CBS Sports HQ noon Eastern, Monday through Friday. And then once the season starts, they'll have the Sunday morning extravaganza to get your lineup set and get you ready for the games. You need to download the CBS Sports app. That's where you can watch HQ 24-7.

So I have it on my Roku. You can have it on your Apple TV, your Amazon Fire, whatever. Your smart TV, CBS Sports app. That's where you watch CBS Sports HQ. It is 24-7. It is free. It is sports coverage that you will not get anywhere else.

There's gambling coverage. There's fantasy coverage. There's not people screaming at each other about who the best coach in football. It's not that kind of stuff. We'll leave that to the other people. You're going to love CBS Sports HQ, and Fantasy Football Today airs noon Eastern, Monday through Friday. I'd like to give an apology to all of our loyal listeners who've been sending fantasy cops emails. It's like the best segment we have, and I haven't done it.

I'll have to find some time for it, and I apologize. It won't be today. But fantasy cops, I'm bringing them back. They'll be back. So sorry about that for not getting to those. I would spend more time on the news, but I do want to get to everyone as a bust. Hopefully we'll be able to talk about 12 players today. So Dave, let's start with you.

What's the biggest news, other than Deshaun Watson, biggest news or nugget or whatever that you saw from over the weekend? The biggest news... Debo. What happened? Debo. Debo getting his contract or DK getting his contract?

I know what it is. I'll help you out. No, no, no. I was going to say Chris Godwin's still not participating in practice. We're going into week two of training camp in Tampa Bay. Okay, so what does this mean for you as you try to evaluate your rankings with Chris Godwin? I'm wondering if I've got him too high. And I'm wondering what the Bucs are thinking

by not putting him on the pup list in the first place. I read a report. I shared it with you, Adam. It's from one of the Bucs fan sites that's been around forever. I think it's joebucsfan.com, where they were told that Godwin is still on track to be ready for week one,

and they're pleased with his progress. And just because he's not practicing doesn't mean that it's trouble in paradise. But you'd kind of like to see him come back and get on the field you know michael thomas did he was on the publicist for a day he's come back he's had tons of good reports and everybody's getting really excited about michael thomas i'd like to see that happen with chris godwin um to to have this bucks offense at full strength to begin the year i guess we just got to keep waiting and seeing and for now when you're

drafting Chris Godwin, you're taking a little bit of a leap of faith. You have May 18th in PPR. Jamie has Godwin 21st. Heath has him 16th. Jamie, what's the biggest news from over the weekend? I think it's the two contracts. The fact that the hold-ins are over.

Matt Kass is back at practice. Samuel will be back at practice. Don't have to worry about any more trade discussions with Debo Samuel, if they're actually worth them. We're taking part. We'll see now. Hopefully, Trey Lance can start to connect

with Debo Samuel. We get to see what this 49ers offense looks like. We get to see how DK Metcalf does with his new quarterback. I'm glad that we have these stories behind us all right well you missed the big news I really think it's what the Cowboys and now Jerry Jones are saying about Ezekiel Elliott sure I was thinking I said this with uh Chris on FFT and five last night based on reports tell me why I should draft Javante Williams ahead of

Ezekiel Elliott right now. I was just looking at that. If the Cowboys are talking about him being, you know, they had the, what did Jerry Jones say? That he has to be the focus of the run game.

Feature. The feature. The feature of the run game. And what Jerry Jones says carries a lot of weight. And there's still a competition going on, obviously, for the RB2 spot

in Denver. But, you know, Javante's probably not going on, obviously, for the RB2 spot in Denver, but, you know, Gervonta is probably not going to have the same workload that Zeke has. That's my interpretation right now.

I don't love dissecting quotes because there's a lot of fluff, but I don't think this is. So tell me why, if you still have it this way, why Gervonta should be drafted ahead of Zeke. If they have the same workload,

Gervonta is going to destroy him. I don't know if that's true. And I'll tell you why. You just said that though. No, no, I'll tell you why. If they have the same touches, it depends on goal line

because I know Zeke is getting all of the touchdowns. I still don't know that in Denver, you know? Well, I mean, look, there's obviously some uncertainty with Javante Williams, which is why he's not as, he's not as highly at least for me as he was prior to the melvin gordon return but the fact that early in camp that gordon is not working with the first team offense as much

as he is working with the second and third team offense tells me that they like giovante enough that they're going to give him the opportunity to win the to be the featured guy not to win the job he's obviously the starter but to be the featured guy with zeke you know he's going to be the featured guy but just how successful is he going to be how productive is he going to be the featured guy, not to win the job. He's obviously the starter, but to be the featured guy. With Zeke, you know he's going to be the featured guy, but just how successful is he going to be? How productive is he going to be? How much of it was the knee? How much of it was just he's starting to really tail off? They lost two offensive linemen this offseason.

How much is that going to be of an impact that he's not as productive because the line was really something that was saving him and making him a above average player to an elite player you know during his heyday and so look there there are things about ezekiel elliott the point in his career the fact that he's already you know dealt with an injury that he had to play with what happens if he gets hurt even more significantly now he misses time and tony pollard every time he touched the ball last year was much more explosive you know i i don't care any metrics you want to tell me my My eyes told me enough. And so I look at the situation in Dallas.

I'm avoiding Zeke Elliott. The fact that his ADP on Fantasy Pros is 30th. Good luck. Enjoy him. I hope he does well for you. I will not be taking him until round four. Okay. Okay.

Like the passion. All right, so let's do some more news and notes here. Quarterback notes. Looks like it's Mitchell Trubisky's job. Mitchell Trubisky has basically been told it's his job to lose, according to Peter King. It doesn't seem like Kenny Pickett is anywhere close to winning that job. No, but Mason Rudolph has looked good so far.

Yeah. I would imagine Rudolph will tail off at some point here, and Trubisky will be the replacement for Big Ben. We'll call him Big Mitch. They were using Pickett on holding drills. He's far away. That's okay. Think about it for your projections

for that Steelers offense. It's wild because he was considered the most NFL-ready quarterback in the draft class. He's brutal so far. Trey Lance, based on what I've read, I haven't read a lot of good stuff on Trey Lance. It's been hot and cold. I haven't read, oh, he sucks.

Something to keep an eye on here. We don't have to dissect it. It's early in camp. They're not even playing with pads. I think that starts today. Not the greatest start for Trey Lance. Of course, he hasn't had Debo Samuel. Running back news. Talked about Ezekiel Elliott. Joe Mixon, you know, there was this whole thing about how they're over the whole,

him not being on the field on the final drive of the Super Bowl. But he actually said that he was used in the two-minute drill throughout the postseason, but not on that drive. I thought that was interesting because, you know, that would signal a more receiving upside for Mixon. Well, that's if they carry it over into this year. Exactly. He did have a pretty big jump in catches late in the year when Burrow started

throwing more. Yes. Anyway, he'll be on the everyone is a bust list later. Rams rookie running back Kyron Williams could return for the third preseason game. Kansas City rookie running back Isaiah Pacheco got some second teamwork ahead of Ronald Jones. He had some first teamwork too. Oh, how about that?

They're mixing him in, but I'm still scared that the Chiefs are going to mix everybody in and they're going to go full committee at running back. It's good though for Edward Soler that the guy with the most robust resume of the group is not pushing him for touches right now. Jones, right. Yeah. Here are a couple of quotes from ESPN reporters covering their beat.

From Jamison Hensley for the Ravens, J.K. Dobbins is expected to be back by the start of the regular season, but it's uncertain whether he will be at full strength at that point. Gus Edwards is farther behind Dobbins is expected to be back by the start of the regular season, but it's uncertain whether he will be at full strength at that point. Gus Edwards is farther behind Dobbins in his recovery and could miss a chunk of the season. And both of them are currently on the pup list, yes?

Yes. That's how you're supposed to use the pup list. Right. Here's one from Nick Wagner, who covers the 49ers for ESPN. Ideally, Tyrion Davis-Price offers short yardage and goal line help. Yes. With Elijah Mitchell handling the bulk of the work.

But injury concerns about Mitchell are real and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Davis-Price and Jeff Wilson involved early and often, even if Mitchell hangs on to the starting spot. The goal line thing there stood out. That would be bad for Mitchell. When you go back and watch Davis Price in college,

he's a physical back. He's a big boy. And it kind of made you wonder what was it about, was that the thing that the 49ers really liked about him? And they figured they can just teach him their wide zone running scheme along the way. Because I don't know if he was necessarily

proficient in that at LSU. Someone who follows LSU could let me know if they think he was. It's definitely going to be a mix in San Francisco. It hurts Elijah Mitchell to a significant degree. Okay. And Travis ETN has been the star of training camp according to Jaguar report. And Peter King was at giants camp and he came away impressed with Saquon Barkley

and rookie wide receiver Wandale Robinson. Let's go to wide receiver news. Chase Claypool. Has Saquon cracked the top 12 yet for everybody? Overall? No, just at running back. Oh, he's been there all offseason for me. What about you, Dave?

No, he hasn't, but he's pretty much getting there. He's almost in the top 10. I moved ahead of Fournette. All right, Chase Claypool day-to-day with a shoulder injury. Debo Samuel signed a three-year deal. I thought this was interesting. Football Outsiders publishes a list every year of under-the-radar prospects.

So for this year, it's players who were drafted in round three or later for the last three seasons, between 2019 and 2021. So not 2022, the three seasons prior to that. Round three or later, and they have not played more than 500 offensive snaps or defensive snaps. They lowered the threshold for running backs.

They have not played more than 300 offensive snaps. So their number one kind of under-the-radar prospect for this year is Chargers wide receiver Josh Palmer. And number three is Ramondre Stevenson. He's my favorite. Yeah, I mean, obviously, you guys like Stevenson. Palmer doesn't necessarily get drafted, but just a name to know.

I keep saying it. Between Josh Palmer and K.J. Osborne, they're going to be in offenses that are going to push the ball down the field. They're going to be in situations where you're going to see pass volume be certainly in their favor. And they're an injury away, as we saw last season, from being very

relevant and very viable and potentially, I don't know, league winner is the type of designation you want to put on them. But Osborne numbers popped last season when Adam Thielen was out, and they love him. And Palmer's numbers were certainly moving in the right direction toward the end of last season. they love him and we know Mike Williams has battled some injuries and Keenan Allen's getting to a point in his career where maybe you have to worry

about that a little bit as he's getting you know into his early 30s or you know approaching 30. These are two easy players to take at the end of your draft and if they struggle or don't get involved early then that's the type of move you make to move on from them you probably might regret it at some point during the season, but they're so cheap and they have so much upside, they're so worth drafting. Disposable late-round wide receivers. We're always interested in those kinds of guys.

They both qualify. Do they also qualify as friendship strategy receivers for those of us in deeper leagues that take an early pick on Justin Jefferson or Keenan Allen or Mike Williams absolutely or or or you know and any any which way you want to shake it up backing up wide receivers typically isn't something that we do uh in the case of the Chargers guys I kind of like it because I agree I think Palmer's a good talent okay so we're talking about Josh Palmer for the Chargers

and uh and we could find receivers on other teams. As we go along, you might qualify Valdez Scantling as being one of those guys. Van Jefferson, if he were healthy, would be one of those guys. As we talk about teams, there's plenty of other receivers that could be friendship strategy. Yeah, maybe not so much Van Jefferson right now. No, no, because he's hurt. Okay, let's talk more about wide receivers here. ESPN's Eric

Woodyard covers the Lions and he answered the question, who will lead the Lions in receiving yards? All signs are pointing to St. Brown enjoying a breakout second season after setting numerous rookie records in 2021. St. Brown's production skyrocketed when Lions coach Dan Campbell gave former tight

ends coach Ben Johnson a bigger role in play calling responsibilities. Ben Johnson is now the offensive coordinator and will find creative ways to use the Lions rising star. And I thought that was interesting because to think about Amonra St. Brown, we always say his production skyrocketed when Swift was out and for most of it when Hawkinson was out. But I don't know that we've ever attributed it to the change in play caller. So that's another way to look at it, and maybe that helps him going into year two. He had a 33% target share during the end of last season.

It's not going to happen again. I know, but he was a top five receiver, right? So nobody's drafting him to be what he was at the end of last season. He was a top five receiver in those six games. He's already discounted. It's pretty significant. You're saying he's discounted, yes, based on where he finished,

but he's still going as a 23rd receiver off the board on Fantasy Pros. Like, that's... Too early. I just don't understand that. Like, could he still be in that range? Yes, absolutely. But, again, you know, we attribute it to the other guys not being there, and now you want to attribute it to the play caller.

Those guys were there, and they added DJ Chark in terms of Hawkinson and Swift. He averaged 11 yards per catch. If James Williams at any point in the season starts to play and produce, how much is he going to be that successful? So I feel like just the situation for him, and I think it's almost worth lumping Elijah Moore in the same boat because his numbers popped in those five games before he got hurt. He did it without Zach Wilson.

You know, St. Brown did it without the other guys in the field. You know, there are legitimate things you can point to and say, OK, this is maybe why this happened. Hopefully it's not the case. You know, and Adam, you brought this up, that Elijah Moore's real world talent versus his fantasy production. You know, something that I said about Stephon Diggs prior to going to Buffalo. Sometimes it just doesn't marry each other they don't marry each other you know and i think that could be the case with moran and for saint brown um look i you asked me at the end of the nfl draft last year who's the guy that i think could be a surprise receiver this was the guy that i told you yeah

uh you know based on his his scenario because it wasn't crowded now it's a little bit more crowded just don't trust him as much yeah i feel like as we've gone through the offseason, there have been three players that I feel like I've been higher on than everyone else. I do need to just clarify. Those players to me are Joe Burrow, probably Dawson Knox, and Amon Rasim Brown.

Higher on than all of my colleagues, but I still think they're all being overdrafted. St. Brown's going ahead of Adam Thielen, Alan Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Michael Thomas. He is way too

high. Way too high. Dawson Knox is tight end 10. I think that's too high. Joe Burrow is QB 5 or something like that. That's too high. 6. It depends where you look. I'm making the case for these guys, but still agreeing with you that they're busts. was QB five or something like that. That's too high. Six. Right. It depends where you look. But so, well,

even though I, it's like I'm making the case for these guys, but still agreeing with you that they're busts. I just, I'm probably, I draft them before you guys do, but totally think they're, they're going too high.

You know how many targets he had inside of 10 yards during his six game streak? Three. Lower. Negative three. Two. Okay. Negative three. Two. Okay. Six games. Carson Wentz seems to have a good connection with Jahan Dotson.

And Aaron Rodgers likes his wide receivers. And Alan Lazard or Amandra St. Brown, who'd you take? Lazard. Lazard, which sounds weird to say, but I like his situation there. Okay. Tight end news. Pat Frymuth has a minor hamstring injury. And Taysom Hill, who's a tight end, is out a situation there. Okay, tight end news. Pat Frymuth has a minor hamstring injury, and Taysom Hill, who's a tight end,

is out with injured ribs. And offensive line news. Tampa Bay center Ryan Jensen's going to be out for a significant amount of time. Not necessarily the whole season, but a significant amount of time. Chicago center Lucas Patrick is out indefinitely with a hand injury. He broke his hand.

Not a good thing when you're a center. And Kansas City left tackle Orlando Brown will report to hand injury. He broke his hand. Yeah, and that's a bad offensive line. Not a good thing when you're a center. And Kansas City left tackle Orlando Brown will report to camp today. He will play this season on the franchise tag. All right, we're going to take a break. When we come back, we're going to do our best. Everyone is a bus is a fun show, but usually we don't have the Deshaun Watson

breaking news eating into the episode. So we'll do our best to get to as many as we can. Bus cases for the elite players. Do we buy them? How legit are these bust cases? How much should you be concerned? We'll take a break. We'll come right back on Fantasy Football today. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to powers your scale with no preset spending limit. More cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days. And the ability to reach further with access to over 1,400 airport lounges worldwide.

Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Welcome back, everybody. express terms and conditions apply visit amex.ca slash business platinum welcome back everybody so we're we're being uh debbie downer today negative nancy dave downer uh what it's a negative jamie jay i don't know unfortunately there's nothing negative about me these days yes dave is referring to his COVID results. He's still testing positive

10 days in. Still? Man. Still. But it sounds like you're feeling better. Yes, yes, yes. I don't sound

like Barry White anymore. Well, we do miss that. I'm not going to lie. All right. So I'm going to make all of you make a bust case. Both of you make a bust case and the other one will tell us

tell the listeners, the viewers, if you agree with it. Jamie, Jonathan Taylor is number one in ADP. Make a bust case. Everyone is a bust, including Jonathan Taylor. The bust case for Jonathan Taylor is his role in the passing game gets worse because of

an increase in Naheem Hines' role. He does not score as many touchdowns because Matt Ryan, they trust him more in the red zone, and he does not lead the NFL in rushing. So he goes from the number one, this is non-injury related, but he goes from the number one overall selection and number one overall pick to more of a late first, early second round selection because of a downturn in production, especially in PPR, and you regret drafting him ahead of a healthy Christian McCaffrey or anybody else at the running back position.

You buy it, Dave. No, not at all. This is the hardest player to make a bus case for. He's he's, he's scored in, I think 18 of his last 23 games.

He's the total package. As far as running backs go. He's young. He's strong. Even though Matt Ryan's there, I still think they're going to be a run-centric offense. I think they'll revolve around Taylor. Maybe not quite as much as last year, but still a good amount. I think Naheem Hines is probably going to take work away from the other pass catchers

more so than Jonathan Taylor. As long as he's upright and he's running, he's just an absolute cannonball. And I think there's a chance, I don't know if he can do better touchdown-wise than what he did last year, but I think he can rumble for another 2,000 yards this year, 2,000 total yards. And I think he'll be well worth the number one pick in that he will be a consistent stat producer for fantasy managers all year long. The one thing, I know you want to move on, but Frank Wright saying when he was touting Naeem Hines

that they got too run-centric for him was the only thing that kind of made me a little bit like, oh, what does that mean? And then you go back and you look and how much of it was a Carson Wentz situation or how much of it was just that Jonathan Taylor was that good? I hope it was that Jonathan Taylor was that good because this is when he became an MVP candidate. But I think it was their first eight games. They only had one game with more than 20 total touches and then in his last nine when they went six and three he had eight of those over 20 total touches and so if they want to throw the ball more where

does it come at the expense of now again you know this this is clearly just nitpicking because we all have taylor ranked first um you know i i did hear something and i know you want to move on is mcafree next because we can just? I just want to point out, Jonathan Taylor scored the fewest PPR fantasy points for a number one running back since 2015. And that was in the first year where he had 17 games. So he played 17 games, and he scored the fewest PPR fantasy points

for a number one running back since 2015. So I actually think that it's the hardest player to make a bus case for, but since he's going to go number one in most leagues, he does have more bus. But like, like for example, I think Dalvin cook is very hard to make a performance based bus case for

trying to do that. McCaffrey McCaffrey, of course, but Dalvin cook might go seventh or eighth. So, you know, if he plays like the 12th best player, it won't feel like that much of a bust.

If Jonathan Taylor plays like the 12th best player, it's going to feel like a bigger a bust. If Jonathan Taylor plays like the 12th best player, it's going to feel like a bigger bust, if that makes sense. Yes. I mean, look, you're talking, it's mostly McCaffrey, because I don't think anybody's taking down McCook out of Jonathan Taylor. And I found this question interesting. I forget who posted it on Twitter, so I apologize. Make a case for Taylor

over McCaffrey without saying injury. In non or half PPR. In any format. Well, he's going to score a lot more touchdowns. It's that simple. Okay, so do it in PPR. I'm not going to.

I'm just not going to the case is that you know the fantasy world and the skeptical fantasy managers aren't the only ones that are worried about Christian McCaffrey breaking down and that the Panthers are going to take steps to start limiting how where is their example they play him what do you mean he hasn't played a game yet since but nobody said that though you're just speculating no there Matt Rule has said a number of times we need to keep him healthy yes but you've already seen him in practice he's been sitting out of practices look they this isn't to say that when it's third down and six he's going to be off the field um i i'm worried about again take health out of the equation take health out of the equation is this taking health out of the equation because this is is performance-based, Jamie. If he's not playing 25 touches a game, and if, God forbid,

he doesn't get every single goal line carry like he used to get, this is going to lower the ceiling for him a little bit. He's still going to be really good when he's healthy. Still going to average right around 24, 25 fancy points per game. That is better than Jonathan Taylor. But I am positive the Panthers coaching staff, on one hand, they need to win. But on the other hand,

they know that they cannot win without Christian McCaffrey. So I bet a lot of the Panthers. Is it to run Christian McCaffrey into the ground? Or is it to try and preserve him? And I'm not saying this because I know. No, no, no. I think if they find themselves to be a competitive team this year, they're going to take the reins off of McCaffrey. I don't know if they do.

The type of carries that I'm thinking they don't give Christian McCaffrey are going to be second and seven in late first quarter. They're not hurrying up or anything like that. That's an easy carry. That's an easy carry. That's an easy rep to not give him, especially if they're going to throw on that rep. I'm a little worried about what Deontay Foreman means as far as short yardage goal line goes. Are they going to take McCaffrey

out of those situations? There's going to be so much. I think they will some of the times. Not every time. That's for a lot of running backs, though is but part of christian mccaffrey's appeal is that he scores tons of touchdowns and anything that takes off five touchdowns off the course of the season i don't think that's christian mccaffrey heard a little bit that you're not drafting him for touchdowns no you're also drafting him to catch a hundred passes right i don't know if he gets that high

i really don't i think that there's a chance that they hold him back a little bit until they're really comfortable with his health and they're really in a playoff race. Matt Rule did say that he wants the offense to be a little bit more diverse in terms of the players that are involved. He just felt like they were too dependent on Moore and McCaffrey, basically. Specifically Moore, I guess. I don't know.

I guess you could say the Panthers spread the ball around a little bit more, eased up on the workload for McCaffrey. I'm looking at, in 2020, in half PPR, he averaged 27.3 points per game. That was only in three games. Let me see what he did in 2019 in half PPR. 25.7, whereas number two was Derrick Henry at 19.4. It's so funny that in half PPR. 25.7, whereas number two was Derek Henry at 19.7. It's so funny that in half PPR he's better than

the guy who the next year was in full PPR. It's crazy. It's just crazy. I don't know. It's hard to make a bust case for McCaffrey that's not health-based. Dave, I think you're doing it, but I think you still acknowledge that he's amazing. If I'm drafting with people like

me, I'm taking him fifth overall. I just think that there's going to be at least two or three people in every single draft that will not care at all that McCaffrey got hurt the past two years. And they're going to have amnesia for it, and they're going to take him as early as they possibly can. And I'm not saying that it's going to be wrong.

It could be. Time will tell if that's wrong or right. Yeah. Okay, let's talk about... Oh, by the way, here's a question. It could be. Time will tell if that's wrong or right. Yeah. Okay. Let's talk about, oh, by the way, here's a question. How much does Baker throw to running backs? About 20%. But you know what? Most of his years in Cleveland, it was about 20%.

Cam Newton never threw to his running backs. And then he threw over and over and over again to Christian McCaffrey. If you have Christian McCaffrey and you don't throw to your running backs, you're doing it wrong. Plus, he doesn't just line up out of the backfield, right? He'll line up out wide and slot, whatever. All right.

Austin Eckler, Dave, make the bus case for Austin Eckler. He was number two overall in all formats. He was number three per game in all formats behind Derek Henry and Jonathan Taylor. Uh, he had,

uh, 70 catches. And in week, week one, he had zero targets. It was the weirdest thing. But anyway, make your best case for Austin Eckler. I believe he's coming off of a career year.

20 touchdowns for him, 1,558 total yards. Those are both career highs. And the Chargers thought so much of it that they drafted Isaiah Spiller, who, for the draft capital they used, was an excellent pick. He's a quality three-down player. He's good at catching the ball out of the backfield.

Certainly a more physical running back than Austin Eckler was considered before last season. Eckler is also on a team with a ton of great pass catchers. Not only do they have Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, we've already talked about Josh Palmer. They added Gerald Everett at tight end they're going to be able to spread the ball around quite a bit this year in la and they also have themselves one of the better looking defenses on paper that might mean that they actually slow down some of the offenses that they face that means that there could be more running will the coaching staff put eckler in the four minute drill when they've got somebody like spiller who can be a good sustainer and a good physical back

to help grind down the clock late in the fourth quarter? Eckler can be a good fantasy running back, but I don't think he's got a shot to really hit that upside that we saw last year. Jamie, do you buy it? Do you buy that bus case for Eckler? I don't buy the bus case for him in terms of being a first-round pick if he stays healthy.

But I don't know if he's going to finish as a top-five guy based on history. And this is what makes me concerned about him and Henry and these guys that are getting a little bit older, Fournette, Connor. It's five years since a 27-year-old running back has been a top six, These guys that are getting a little bit older, Fournette, Connor, it's five years since a 27-year-old running back has been a top six. 27-plus running back has been a top six PPR guy. Yeah, the Sean McCoy. Eckler's 27 and Henry's 27, or 27-plus.

Right. So can they buck that trend? Sure. He's not the typical 27-year-old,'t have you know this is why i feel more comfortable about him than henry uh in ppr is that anytime you have a guy that's going to make the majority of his production successful production um without having to rely on touchdowns let me be honest anybody can be successful without having to rely on touchdowns you feel a little bitase. Anybody can be successful without having to rely on touchdowns. You feel a little bit more safer about. And so, you know, there was a little bit, if you,

if you go back to Justin Herbert's rookie season, remember when he first came back from, I mean, I believe he missed two or three games for an injury. He wasn't throwing to Eckler as much. And then all of a sudden it was just like, it was nonstop to Eckler. And then that carried over to last year. I'm sure a lot of that had to do more with Anthony Lennon is just, you know, in inept play calling.

But, you know, in inept play calling. But, you know, Brandon Staley's offense and Lombardi's offense and what they do getting Eckler the ball, as long as he's not coming off the field significantly for Isaiah Spiller, he should be a star. Okay. Yeah.

I mean, this Spiller thing could be interesting because he dominated carries near the goal line. And also he caught, I think the easiest case to make against Eckler is he caught eight touchdowns last year. He is the only running back since Marshall Falk in 2020 and 2000 and 2001 to have eight or more receiving touchdowns. And Eckler has done it twice.

So you can buy it a little bit. But he also had two receiving touchdowns in 2020. So if that number comes down, he could be a little bit disappointing, particularly in non or half PPR. Does it help that all the receiving touchdowns came in the red zone? Yeah, but did you see the stat

I tweeted last night? I did not. I was looking at where his touchdowns came from, and yes, they did come in the red zone. But only one from inside the five. Only one from inside the five. Only two of his eight came from inside the ten, I believe. Alvin camara i was like what does that look like compared to camara the other prominent pass catching running back i didn't look at mcafree yet but alvin camara and austin eckler have combined for 34 receiving touchdowns during this off memory here, in their careers,

and 24 of them came from outside, 10 yards out or longer. It's very weird. Those guys catch a lot of touchdowns and rarely from inside the 10-yard line. I don't know what to make of it. I even said I have no idea. I'm just tweeting it.

But yeah, all right. Anyway, let's go to Cooper Cup. Jamie, make the best case for Cooper Cup, who was the number one non-quarterback in all formats last year. Pretty sure. Could be wrong about that in non-PPR, but certainly in half and full.

He goes from having breakfast with Matthew Stafford to only lunch and dinner, and that ruins all of their plans and everything goes awry. He was not number one in half, in non-PPR. I'm sorry.

Not even close. Taylor crushed him. But sorry. Go ahead. Allen Robinson proves to be a better running mate than he's ever had. Certainly better than he had last year. So better than Pete Robert Woods and better than what Odell Beckham and Woods combined to be last season. Teams now decide they're going to just put three guys on him and say, you're not getting open. We're going to make Matthew Stafford go elsewhere. You noted this when we were having the camp makers conversation but pro football focus disagrees with you about off about the offensive line but let's just say the offensive line is bad and not bad not bad just just significantly worse but maybe significantly worse uh you know they don't consider them to be significantly worse okay um but if they are

significantly worse and you know stafford doesn't have time to be significantly worse. Okay. But if they are significantly worse, you know, Stafford doesn't have time to connect with Cooper Cup. Again, you know, these guys that we're talking about here are, barring injury, I think still have the path to being, you know, first-round caliber talents. It's a matter of are they top five, top 10, or are they, you know, bottom 10 or toward the end of the top 10 or, you know, closer to 15. I think if Cooper Cupp stays healthy,

he's certainly proven to be a target hog and a significant pass catcher, whether it was Jared Goff or Matthew Stafford. Stafford just unleashed him, and hopefully that continues. Dave, what do you think about that bus case? I think you can make a stronger bus case. He had never been over nine targets per game. I think it's even eight and a half targets per game

until last year, and then he averaged 11.2 targets per game. I think it's even eight and a half targets per game until last year. And then he averaged 11.2 targets per game. It feels unlikely to repeat at 11.2 targets per game. Does he fall back to where he's been over most of his career, which is right around, well, in 2020, he was 8.3. 2019, he was 8.4. Does he fall back to there? And is that enough of a drop to open the door for someone like Justin Jefferson to just win on volume? Because Jefferson had almost 10 targets per game last year, and that's an offense that's expected to throw more this year. So could that cost Cooper Cup? Could Allen Robinson cost Cooper Cup?

Could I be dead wrong on Cam Akers? And Akers is just the engine of this Rams offense, and they decide that they're they're going to be a little bit more balanced than they were last year they were 60 percent past last year do they tone that down do they tone it down because Stafford's arm might be an issue remember he's kind of on a pitch count in camp this year so I think there's I think there's plenty more that can go wrong for cup compared to somebody like jonathan taylor uh that could see his numbers go down i've spent a lot of time debating in my mind cup versus jefferson

and i just i i don't see enough of a target drop i don't think he'll go as far as 8.4 i think he'll be still right around 10 targets per game and if he's getting the same amount of targets per game as jefferson i'll take up to have the better year. All right. Next up is Derek Henry, but I'm going to switch the order here and just go with Jefferson. Let's go right into it. I'm going to make the best case for Justin Jefferson. I'm just going to give you these numbers.

He was a lot better before Adam Thielen got hurt. And before Thielen got hurt, he was on pace for 151 targets. Still great numbers. 1,587 yards, nine touchdowns on 151 targets. And then after Thielen got hurt, that jumped up to 196 targets. So he went from 151 target pace to a 196 target pace. Numbers were great both times,

but they were better, obviously, without Thielen. You have to point out that in the three games leading up to the Thielen injury, he started to really get going. So it started, and then Thielen got hurt and barely played over the last six games of the season, and Jefferson went nuts. And that, by the way, that pays for Jefferson with those last six games without Thielen, included the Sean Mannion game, which was awful.

So that's the case. I mean, that's the case right there for Jefferson. He's, he's being drafted as wide receiver two last year. He was wide receiver four per game. So he's never been, he's never been wide receiver two.

It's almost like, how dare he in two years, never get there. Yeah. But it's also, it's also like Tyree kill and Devante Adams got traded and their values fell a little bit. So it's pushed Jefferson up, perhaps.

And he did get a boost when Thielen was off the field. So that's the bus case. That's included in the red zone. He hasn't been a dominator in the red zone, like other receivers that you would expect to take this high in a fantasy draft would be. 2021, he had 20 targets in the red zone. He caught seven of them for touchdowns.

Three of the seven touchdowns came with Thielen out. In 2020, he only had 10 red zone targets. I remember talking about this with him going into last year. Barely targeted in the red zone. Only one of his three touchdowns that came in the red zone as a rookie came with Thielen out. And that was only one game. I get a little bit worried about that, but then I also understand that this is a new coaching staff and I figure I'm putting

a lot of faith in Kevin O'Connell that he will be a lot more attentive toward the passing game. Won't be so stodgy like Mike Zimmer was. He likes his quarterback. Did you see what Mike Zimmer said about Kirk Cousins and that come fromfrom-behind game from last year? That was something. They obviously did not get along. I think Cousins will get along with O'Connell. It means a lot of throwing. I think there will be ways for Justin Jefferson to have another very good

year. In other words, I don't believe that the red zone woes are going to continue. I think that'll revert a little. And I know you guys are expecting a big boost. They were 11th in pass attempts last year. It's not about a boost in volume. It's about how the passes are distributed and the routes are changed

and the tempo is different. I mean, they were forced to throw last year because their defense fell apart. I don't care if their defense is healthy. You're going to see throws on first down. They didn't do that on a regular basis. You're going to see just, you know, second and one where Mike Zimmer would call a run play. They're going to take shots.

It's a different feel for Kevin O'Connell. He's talked about that. The players have talked about that. So, you know, when teams are expecting them to run, they're going to throw. You know, until teams adjust, they should have some success. Okay. Let's go to Derek Henry then.

Just to speed things up, I think it's an easy bus case. It's a health thing, right? He's older and coming off the foot injury. I don't know that there's a really – is there a performance bus case? The only thing is, you know, he ran for 2,000 yards

and in full PPR, he was, in half and full PPR, he ran for 2,000 yards in 2020 and he was RB4 per game. And actually he was RB3 and non-PPR per game because he just has

no receiving production. However, he did have 18 catches in eight games last year, so he was on pace for 38 catches, which would have been by far a career high. Is there a performance bus case for Derrick Henry, Dave? I don't think so, unless you tie it to the injury. I don't think the Titans are going to do what I think the Panthers might do with McCaffrey and say, whoa, whoa, whoa, we need our big horse healthy. We need to start giving more work to other running backs here.

And they take them off the field. And maybe they do take them off the field in certain situations where you don't expect them to get a touch anyway, like third downs. I think their identity revolves around Derrick Henry. I think they're comfortable with where he's at in his recovery. He's practicing the injury he's coming back from. It is a problem, but it's not a soft tissue injury. As long as he's comfortable playing on the foot, and my guess is that he is, he's already had one game coming back from the broken foot. I think he'll be fine. I think he's still going to get a lot of work. He led running backs in touches per game last year.

He averaged over 23 PPR points per game last year. Again, that's not as high as McCaffrey's highs, but that's still really good. And you mentioned that he finished fourth in PPR per game two years ago. That's the lowest he's been each of the last three years in PPR. I think, and I look at the division, Houston's run defense doesn't scare me., Houston's run defense doesn't scare me. Jacksonville's run defense doesn't scare me.

Indianapolis doesn't have Shaquille Leonard anymore in the middle of that defense, at least not right now. We'll see if he comes back and he's fine. I think he could just go on a mad run again this year and just be, everyone will look back and shake their heads and say, all right, yeah, he's not going to catch 50 balls, but he's still running for 150 yards and scoring at least one touchdown a week. Jamie, I've got a better bus case for Derrick Henry. This offense is a sinking ship. Ryan Tannehill regressed last year.

They don't have AJ Brown anymore. We're relying on Robert Woods and a rookie to be their receiving game. Their offensive line could suck this year. PFF has them pre pre-training campus 27th. They lost an offensive tackle and an offensive guard who were actually very good in run blocking last year, but bad in pass blocking. His efficiency went way down last year. 4.3 yards per carry was super low for Derrick Henry. Where are some warning signs for a guy who does not catch passes who could be

on a bad offense? Yikes. Do you buy that? Yeah. I mean, you know, I don't have a right that way, but I buy it.

You know, I can certainly see that, that happening. He's an alien, you know, so he's able to overcome a lot of these things. And I think he will. But again,

you know, history is not on his side for finishing at this level. History has also been something that he's proven that he can shatter by bouncing back from a 2,000-yard season and performing at a high level. Most guys that run for 2,000 yards don't do that. So he's got that league-rushing title within his sights, and I'm sure he will compete for it. He's got the opportunity once again to score 15 touchdowns again,

15-plus touchdowns again. I hope he has the opportunity to be a 30-catch guy, but he's just somebody, for whatever reason, I tend to avoid based on where you have to draft him. I'm taking Cooper Cupp and Justin Jefferson ahead of him in PPR. I'm taking McCaffrey and Eckler ahead of him in PPR. And so I haven't had the opportunity yet in a draft, probably because of Dave, because Dave's high on Henry,

where if Dave's picking in front of me, to see him fall to that 6-7-8 spot, which is where I think he's probably going to end up. I don't know where his ADP is right now. Right, that won't happen unless I'm picking first. Right. But to be honest, I think just looking at the people that we draft with, and we draft with a lot of the same people, which will change.

I don't know if Dave is the only one that's as optimistic on Derek Henry because he tends to not necessarily get selected in those first three to five picks. I saw him going round two in a draft yesterday. Whoa. Yeah. Wow. And that's a PC draft. Well, he's fifth in ADP.

He's fifth in PPR ADP. in ppr adp i think people probably see a lot of similarities between henry and and jonathan taylor what's the difference to you guys other than age age big offensive line big i think i think the offense and the offensive line definitely hurts i don't see there being somebody like naheem hines in the tennessee offense that could potentially take work away from Henry. And I would be encouraged by the 18 catches in eight games. Yeah, they were very, very front-loaded. He had nine catches, I think, in his first two games.

But even after that, he was on like a 28-catch pace, I think, or 26, 20-something like that, which is better than what he'd done before. His career high is 19. But maybe without A.J. Brown and Julio Jones for what that's worth. There was only one game last year that he played without Brown and Julio, and he had two catches on two targets.

It was a small sample size. The only other thing I would add is that Tennessee tends to be a smartly coached team. They find ways to win. Yeah. Well, I think using him about 30 carries a game last year or whatever was probably not smart.

Well, it ended up biting them in the butt. Yeah. And then he comes back in the playoffs. Crazy workload basically. All right. We're going to stop here. That's the top six. We'll do the second six tomorrow. I was hoping to do round one and round two, but that's okay. We've got a fun week

coming up. We've got value-based drafting, an explanation for what value-based drafting is, why I could help you on draft day on Wednesday. Thursday is quarterbacks. Friday is tight ends. We'll be previewing those positions, getting ready for drafts. They're coming

up for a lot of people. Thank you very much, everybody. Please hit like. Oh, we got a draft Tuesday night. Oh, yes. We have a live mock draft only on YouTube Tuesday night, 8 p.m. Eastern. Be there for it. 8 p.m. again, Tuesday night, youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday.

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