Fantasy Football Today - Devil's Advocate on Our Sleepers, Breakouts and Busts (07/22 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 22, 2024

If you support the show, please nominate Fantasy Football Today for The People's Choice Podcast Awards in the "Sports" Category: https://www.podcastawards.com/app/signup/ Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts You should check out the sleepers, breakouts and busts from our analysts (https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/draft-prep/), but today they're going to play Devil's Advocate and disagree with some of their colleagues' picks. For example, Dave disagrees with Jamey's call that Brian Robinson Jr. will be a breakout (3:30) and Jamey pushes back on Heath's bust call for Saquon Barkley (8:15). And then we talk about Mike Evans (14:45) who is on Dave and Jamey's busts list ... News and notes (23:00) on the Broncos backfield, Chargers wide receivers and more. Then we get back to our Devils' Advocate topic with Jamey supporting Drake London (31:40) who is on Heath's busts list and Heath telling Jamey why Amari Cooper (38:40) is not going to be a bust ... A few more Devil's Advocate plays on James Cook (41:55), Jaylen Waddle (47:30) and Trey McBride (51:15) ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? I had no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. This is going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. It is Monday morning, July 22nd,

and we have raised over $1,400 for St. Jude as part of our 2024 draft. Isn't that great? We started on Friday. That's awesome. Yeah. We just started this. I Friday. Yeah. Yeah. We just started this.

I know. It's terrific. And I no longer have the highest bid. Fifth highest right now. You can see there's a leaderboard. Let's see who, not bid, donation. Who put in the most. I'd like to thank Will in Austin

for a $250 donation to St. Jude. Zach, 200. Stefan, the w Zach, $200. Stefan Nowicki, $100. Go to tinyurl.com slash draftathon2024, and we are raising money. We'll tell you more about that momentarily. Schaefer brought the graphic up, so we'll still come back to it later.

Can I just say something real quick for this week? That's going to be a test run for something we may do the rest of the month. So we're doing a draft on Thursday that you can take part in by making donations. One person, which I think that's already been bought, so thank you, will be getting their draft rated and a question that I will ask to that person that they can reply to their draft strategy and have that featured in one of our stories on CBS sports. Um, so if it goes well and we, we sell out all 12, I think we're, we're fairly close. I'm pretty confident to do it. Then all of us, all four of us, uh, Dan, uh, I think that might be it. There might be somebody else. Um, but the four of us

and Dan are going to be doing this with you guys throughout the month, maybe more so than, uh, probably Dave realizes, but I know he can add them on the call. Um, so we may be doing this quite a bit, uh, over the next month. So if it goes well and the donations are there to help St. Jude, then we will be drafting with you quite a bit. And again, one person in each draft will have their, um, their draft strategy or something, uh, featured on, on the site. All right. Yeah. So I'm actually looking at it right now. According to the page, the Tiltify page, the tiny URL slash Draftathon 2024, there are still seven spots available in the mock draft.

And I have not seen that premium spot for $150. I think there's four spots available, right? Oh, is that how many are available? Oh, yeah. Okay. I'm sorry. So that shows how many are available, not how many are sold. So perfect. There we go. Yeah. Then we have only four spots left and we do not have that premium spot left. So get on that right now. Go

to tinyurl.com slash draftathon2024 and you can get in the draft on Thursday and that is at 12 p.m. Eastern time. So all the details are there. All right, today's show is a devil's advocate show where we looked at the recent publications of sleepers, breakouts, and busts. And wait, where do we maybe disagree or maybe just want to play devil's advocate

and have a discussion about it? So for example, Jamie is going to say that Saquon Barkley is in Heath's bust column. He doesn't necessarily agree with that. He's going to tell you why that might not be right. And then Heath will defend his bus call. We've got notes on the Broncos backfield. Is Javante Williams really battling for a roster spot?

Rashid Shahid signed a contract, a one-year $5.2 million deal. We've got news and notes. But let's get to the devil's advocate. Let's get to this part one here. And Dave, so is Brian Robinson the sexiest name on this list of devil's advocate? He might be the least sexy, but he's someone that we really haven't talked about a lot. So I want to start with him.

Dave, you're looking at Jamie's breakout column. He's got Brian Robinson there. You're going to play devil's advocate on Brian Robinson as a breakout. Go. Yeah. He's Dave Richard sexy. Uh, last year, 13.2 PPR points per game.

In eight games, he had at least 13 touches. He averaged 13.8. I don't think he can be better than that. I think that that's just what he's going to be calling for a career year or a big-time year when Austin Eckler is now in Washington and Jaden Daniels is now in Washington. Makes me a little bit nervous. I think that Brian Robinson is a good draft value. I think he's okay as one of those borderline RB two RB threes, but he's had nine games in two years. That's 27 games with 13 or more PPR points. That's one out of every three. He has one game in his career with

over a hundred rush yards, six with over a hundred total yards. And I don't see him like improving on those rates. I think he's a good running back, kind of in a tough situation, maybe a little bit touchdown dependent. And that makes me feel like Brian Robinson is an okay running back, but not a breakout candidate. And Jamie. Well, as, as we've noted that there's seems to be a consensus list of breakouts amongst the fantasy community, so trying to find somebody different is always the fun exercise. I don't plan to draft Bryan Robinson as a top 24 finally. Um, so I like that opportunity for him. Austin Ecklund's 29. Uh, there's, there's some talk. I saw one report suggesting maybe 10 to 12 total touches for him throughout the course of a game, um, which would

help Brian Robinson because that would mean more for him. Sure. Last year, um, fun to note, uh, a little bit was fluky, but let all running backs in yards per reception. And so there's explosive play there for Robinson. So I like the upside for him and an offense going to be better. And, you know, sometimes running quarterbacks, we know open rushing lanes for guys. And so I think that's going to be the case for Robinson. So should be the lead running back. Hopefully has enough of a role in the passing game. He's not going to be the leading pass in the passing season.

Not going to be the leading pass catcher of Eckler's day selfie. But again, 29 years old, we saw that he looked a little bit washed up last year and talked about retirement this offseason before he got the deal in washington so uh i like the setup for robinson quite a bit he's going to be one of my my top targets you know especially if i go hero rb uh to be even the second guy i prefer him as a third guy but i have no problem with him taking him as a second running back so i love the setup setup for Robinson at his cost, and I am expecting a career year for him. What is the cost, and how high would you go above that cost? I mean, he's being drafted in round seven or later,

and so in that round seven range for me, once we get past that dead zone group, I love the setup for him quite a bit. Yeah, I've got him at 88th overall. Okay, so that's like right past round seven and into round eight, and that's kind of where I'm living on brian robinson too by the way that was almost that was six minutes of uh of no heath so i was best best best part of the show we've had all year welcome heath you're here too uh heath brian robinson is going just before giovante williams, which is kind of a cloudy one right now,

Trey Benson, Devin Singletary, Jalen Warren, Tajay Spears. How do you feel about him compared to, let's say, Jalen Warren and Tajay Spears, who definitely are not going to be just, you know, the lead backs in their backfield to start? Well, probably not going to be the lead backs. I think I've really been tempted the last week or so to move. I already had Robinson ahead of Eckler and on PPR to move Robinson ahead of Eckler in full PPR. And I think I'll go back to a word. And I know Dave said last week, I think that he doesn't like this when we talk as much, but like contingent upside, if something happens to Austin Eckler and he's probably one of the backs more likely to have something happen, Brian Robinson, I think most definitely is a breakout running back and likely a top 20 running back with top 12 upside the cliff Kingsbury

offense, which, and I think we're going to talk to Jacob Gibbs about projections. And that's kind of like this Kingsbury thing of what we thought he was going to be when he came into the NFL and then who he's actually been good for from a fantasy perspective. He was fantastic for James Conner. If something happens to Eckler, we might see a Conner-like season from Brian Robinson. And to that point, Heath,

we saw that last year when Antonio Gibson was out. Robinson was a star. Yeah, he got a lot more catches for sure. Okay, let's go to one of Heath's bus calls that Jamie's going to disagree with here or play devil's advocate on, and it's Saquon Barkley. Although, we should probably clarify here, because Barkley is going in the first round in our drafts, kind of early in the first, like mid-first round.

Seventh highest ADP currently on CBS. Is he a bust if he goes there, Jamie? Yes. Okay, so what do you want to say? Then, okay, follow up to Heath. Is Barkley a bust if he goes, let's say, 15th? I have him 19th, so I wouldn't draft him there, but I wouldn't call him a bust if he was going 15th. I have a 19th, so I wouldn't draft him there, but I wouldn't call him a bust if he was going 15th.

No, but it's, it's the fact that he's currently going ahead of Jonathan Taylor, Justin Jefferson, a Monroe St. Brown, Jameer Gibbs, Kyron.

Like I would take all those guys and AJ Brown, all those guys over him pretty easily. I agree with the receivers. I would take them over Taylor and PPR. All right, go ahead. Just make an optimistic case for Saquon Barkley performing as a first rounder, Jamie. Uh, four words. He left the giants. Um,

so, you know, just going to the Eagles, I think, you know, based on how they will improve just the situation around him improving. Um, do I, do I expect him to have his rookie-type performance, you know, 23-plus PPR points? No. Can he get close to the 18 to 20 range? He's been living in the 15 PPR point-per-game range. I think he's going to get in that 18 point-per-game range. I think he'll still be 40-plus catches.

Again, DeAndre Swift, 39 last year. I think Barkley's a better pass catcher. Two years ago, Miles Sanders, 11 touchdowns in this offense, rushing touchdowns. We know that that wasn't the case for Swift who fell down on the one-yard line, feels like, 50 times. Barkley's going to have those opportunities to punch those in, and I think Kellen Moore will be good for Barkley as well

because they'll throw the ball a little bit more in the red zone, which should benefit him as well, taking away some of the touch-push opportunities for Jalen Hurts. So I think Barkley benefits in a big way. This is probably his last big season because he's 27, but I think he's going to have one. Heath, let me give you two stats that I said about an hour and five minutes into Friday's show.

So I don't know if anybody stuck around to hear. I know a lot of people did, but maybe not the majority of the audience. Over the last two seasons, the Eagles lead the NFL with 79 carries inside the five-yard line. 79 carries. That's all positions. The Giants had 36.

They were 27th. In terms of running back carries, the Eagles had the fourth most with 42 running back carries in the last two seasons. The Giants had the third fewest with 26. So there's that. There's the opportunity. And also, Jamie said over 40 catches,

but we have had two running backs in three straight seasons, two running backs finishing the top seven at the position with 40 or fewer catches in full PPR.

So those are just two stats that I would say help Barkley. Yeah, but I don't think all those rush attempts inside the red zone are what we're going to see from a Kellen Moore offense. I think Jamie was right.

His red zone pass rate has been much higher than what the Eagles have been. An extremely high run rate in the red zone. Kellen Moore has been an extremely high pass rate in the red zone. So I think you're going to see fewer red zone rush attempts. And I know we've talked about how J jalen hurts hasn't really used his running backs in the passing game

and so that's a little bit of a concern kellen moore hasn't either like a 16 percent target rate for running backs and kellen moore offense over the last couple of years um so i don't necessarily think that if they throw the ball more in the red zone, that will be better for Saquon Barkley. All right. Let's say, I don't think you guys are too far off on Barkley. We all agree. He shouldn't be going seventh overall, but early second round for a lot of people,

mid second round for Heath. I'm pretty sure our projections. And again, we don't do our projections for our draft room. I think he's our second projected running back behind me. Wow. All right. All right. All right, we're going to take a break.

When we come back, we'll talk about why Heath says Mike Evans will not be a bust, as Dave and Jamie both said Mike Evans will be a bust. He's in their bust columns. Heath's going to defend Mike Evans. And again, we have a lot more of these, and we have a lot of important news items to get to, including Jonathan Brooks starting training camp

on the non-football injury list. Even though it was a football injury, it didn't happen while he was with the Carolina Panthers. Anyway, we'll talk about that after this break on FFT. It's hockey season, and you can get anything you need delivered with Uber Eats. Well, almost, almost anything. So no, you can't get an ice rink on Uber Eats. But iced tea, ice cream, or just plain old ice?

Yes, we deliver those. Goal tenders, no. But iced tea, ice cream, or just plain old ice? Yes, we deliver those. Goal tenders, no. But chicken tenders, yes. Because those are groceries, and we deliver those too. Along with your favorite restaurant food, alcohol, and other everyday essentials. Order Uber Eats now. For alcohol, you must be legal drinking age. Please enjoy responsibly. Product availability varies by region. See app for details. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. See app for details. on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations, or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada, insurance designed for life.

If you want more fantasy football today, we are going to be on CBS Sports Network today at 1 p.m. Eastern. Check us out. And we're going to be on CBS Sports Network a lot in the month of August, and three times a week during the regular season. So CBS Sports Network

is starting to put our podcast, not just ours, but CBS podcasts on their air, which is great. And today you can watch us at 1 p.m. Eastern. You can also see that video on YouTube.

It'll be on YouTube later. YouTube.com slash fantasy football today. You can watch all of our podcasts there as well. But we'll see you at 1 o'clock CBS Sports Network on Monday afternoon. Heath, you are looking at Dave and Jamie going,

Mike Evans is going to be a bust, and you're saying, no, he's not going to be a bust, or at least you're ready to play devil's advocate on that. Go for it. No, I definitely think he's not going to be a bust. I think it would be much easier to make the case that he's going to be a bust based on where I have him ranked

versus where he's being drafted. I've got him ranked at the end of round two as a top 10 wide receiver. He's being drafted as wide receiver 13 at the end of round three. I just haven't seen any reason to suggest that Mike Evans won't be the same guy he's been for the last decade, which is a guy that goes over a thousand yards. It gets close to double digit touchdowns. He's done it across multiple quarterbacks, multiple head coaches, multiple coordinators. He did not show any sign at all of drop off last year, 9.2 yards per target, actually better than his career. Mark led the

NFL with 13 receiving touchdowns and averaged 74 receiving yards per game. Just like he did the year before. I just, I, I, I have said with older wide receivers, when they start to show you that they're slipping, believe them. And so there's some guys that I'm concerned about that are older, but Evans hasn't shown us any signs, and he's being drafted basically to be what he's been for the last decade. Dave, why don't you hop in there? Yeah, I'm good with where he's actually getting drafted.

In my bus column, the only reason why I listed him was because he was one of those guys that was getting taken a little bit too soon. His ADP has changed since the bus column came out. I think it was like a top 30 pick when I wrote the column. And now, like he said, late round three, I'm good with that with Mike Evans. I think if you view him as a wide receiver that can average 15 PPR points per game, you're probably going to be satisfied. I think he can do that. I'm worried a little bit more about Baker Mayfield putting together consecutive good seasons. I'm also a little concerned about whether or not Mike Evans is just going to dominate targets like he did for most of last year. Chris Godwin's going to be healthy. Whatever the tight ends, Jalen Millen, the running backs take away. Those are smaller factors, but I do wonder about just how many opportunities Mike Evans will have. And coming off a year where he had some career high efficiency, there could be some regression there. He's 31 years old. Tampa Bay's offense is going to change a little bit. And it's the combination of him being older, him probably outperforming expectations last year

and coming back to earth, and maybe getting overdrafted because of it. That makes me a little bit nervous about taking Mike Evans if it's not at the end of round three. Anything you want to add, Jamie? You know what? Can I? Yeah, go ahead.

Go ahead. Now I have a follow-up. Go ahead. Not any signs of him slowing down, but I think Dave sort of brought this up. Maybe signs of Godwin being back to himself. And we saw that the last five games of the year last season when Godwin had more targets for that stretch.

The thing that stands out to me, obviously, is the age. And there's been 63 receivers since 2014, age 31 or older, to play in the NFL. Eight of them have been top 12 PPR wide receivers. So not exactly the best track record of these guys. Uh, Dave Canalis leaving, I know Liam Cohen coming in should run a similar system. Uh, but the last time we saw Canalis leave a team, the receiving core, the passing game slipped a little bit in Seattle. And so, you know, is, is there the same thing that could happen there potentially? But look, if Evans is going into back end around three,

it's hard to argue with that. If he's going into back end around two, then it's a big problem. And so I would not draft him as a top 10 wide receiver and I would not draft him anywhere in the first probably 30 overall picks. Yeah, I mean, it's funny that both with Barkley and now with Evans, that you just have to sort of accept that the concept

that a guy could be a bust six picks earlier than where you might take him. You know what I mean? It's like, well, if he's going 30th, then fine. Then he's a bust. But if he's, yeah. I mean, Barkley's a little bit more than six picks. And I don't necessarily. So it just depends where you're looking.

Yeah. I mean, we're still at the point in the draft where there are these really high-end players that we're very excited for. And if you don't like a guy, then you say, all right, I don't want him to go ahead of this guy, this guy, this guy. If we're talking about guys who are going in round seven, then you're going to say, well, he's going in 70th overall,

whatever it is. Is that still round six? But if he was going 76, you're not going to quibble over six picks there. But at this point in the draft, it might make a really big difference for you just in terms of how you evaluate the other players going around him.

I just thought that was kind of interesting to frame a bus case like half a round really makes the difference. But I agree. I mean, I agree with that concept. Well, we could talk about which receivers we'd take over Mike Evans. Yeah, that's fine.

Like DJ Moore. I'm in on DJ Moore over Evans. I'm in on Nico, Cooper Cup, Devontae. I'll take all those guys ahead of Mike Evans. No chance DJ Moore for me. I'd much rather have Mike Evans. And I don't understand why we'd be concerned about Mike Evans getting older, but take Devontae Adams and Cooper Cup over him.

I think they're the same, to be honest, Adams and Evans, in terms of what they'll produce, not how they'll get it done, but how they'll produce. Because look, I mean, I said it about Adams in this regard last year, and Heath, I don't think he showed much of a decline the year before, but he dropped four points per game in his production. And so I don't think it's going to happen for Evans because he's not coming from the same place.

But two to three points off of his total, which I think is realistic for Evans, you know, that puts him in, you know, more of a backend wide receiver to range, which we've seen from him from, uh, quite a bit during the stretch, you know, where he's still been over a thousand yards and six, seven touchdowns as opposed to 10. So, um, I don't know. I agree with you. There shouldn't be much separation between Adams Evans and cup cup is clearly the third one based on how he's being drafted, and he should be. But I think they should all be drafted in a similar range. Okay.

This is what concerns me about Evans, is that this last year was the first year he wasn't on one of the best, most prolific passing offenses in the NFL of his career, I think. I mean, they're always, the Buccaneers, whether it was Jameis, Fitzpatrick, Brady, I mean, always throwing a ton, throwing for among the most yards in the NFL. I know when you were doing your projections last year, Heath,

you were concerned about Evans and Gobbins. You thought the targets were going to go way down because the pass volume was going to go way down. Well, I mean, we were kind of right about what would happen to the Bucs' offense. Maybe Mayfield was a little bit better than we thought, but they still were. Oh, I think Mayfield was a lot better than I thought. Yeah, but he wasn't, they didn't

throw for nearly as many yards as they usually do, right? Like, that happened, and he only had 135 targets in 17 games. It's not like, you know, 1A kind of stuff. That's not a lead receiver, but he dominated, like, he, it was all at Chris God. That's not a lead receiver. But he dominated. Like, he, it was all at Chris Godwin's expense.

Right? Like, Evans didn't really suffer from it. I mean, he had six more targets than Godwin in the season. Yeah, but Godwin just stuck. Yeah. And that's the thing. It's like, if Godwin plays better, then that's what concerns me.

It's like, they don't have this great passing environment anymore. But, and you talk about the efficiency. I don't think he can do that again. His yak per catch was, was I think a career high. Um, it just like, it just feels like he did.

He overperformed based on the targets. That's what I think. Okay. I also think Baker had a career year. It was his first year with over 4,000 yards passing. It was a career high and pass attempts. He had good efficiency. He's never had good back-to-back seasons.

That part makes me more nervous than anything we could say about Mike Evans and his age and his efficiency. You seem like you want to get one final word in there, Heath, or no? No, I don't. No. I think I've said all the things that I have to say about Mike Evans. All right.

Let's talk one more time about D-a-thon and what's available. We have these Friday mailbags. If you want to donate to have your question read on a Friday mailbag, you're guaranteed to get it read. Try to avoid keeper or dynasty questions if possible. Go to tinyurl.com slash draft-a-thon 2024, and there's plenty of stuff to bid on. There will be more and more things to bid on.

We're already at $1,428, and we want to get a lot more, but just keep an eye on this page, and we'll keep you apprised of any new developments. But yeah, we're thrilled that you're a part of this, and we're going to raise a ton of money. Meanwhile, Podcast Awards. Please vote for us or nominate us on podcastawards. We're going to raise a ton of money. Meanwhile, Podcast Awards.

Please vote for us or nominate us on podcastawards.com. Go to podcastawards.com and nominate us in the sports category and the people's choice category. And then we're going to win this thing this year. I haven't really been so aggressive on social media promoting this. So I need you all out there to help us out and take 30 seconds out of your day and go to podcastawards.com and please nominate fantasy football today in the sports and people's choice categories. Let's talk about our news and notes here. Troy Rank of the Denver Post thinks Samaje P. Ryan and Javante Williams could be battling for a roster spot. Jamie, how do you approach that Denver news? I don't draft Javante Williams now.

And I mean, look, we got to see how this plays out, but everything from this off season was Jaleel McLaughlin looks great. And before he got hurt, SMA looked great and they liked Jordan Mason or Blake Watson, excuse me, where I can make that name Blake Watson. So again, you know, it would seem crazy if they would cut Williams over Pirine just based on what they do and what the other guys do. It feels like there's a little bit more

duplication of, of Pirine skillset with McLaughlin by comparison to what Javante could offer them. And hopefully year two from his ACL tear is going to be better. But again, Sean Payton inherited Javante Williams. He went out and acquired every one of these four other running backs, and probably for a reason. So if Javante's explosiveness is not back and it doesn't show up in camp, he might get cut. I would like to see him get traded. Dallas would give him an opportunity, for example,

to maybe get a chance to get some significant playing time. But anybody investing early in Javante Williams is clearly making a mistake right now. Just a couple of things, because the blurb that came out came from an article with this as a question mark. Are Javante Williams and Samaj P. Ryan battling for the final roster spot? And then it was answered with, I believe so, because two other running backs are definitely going to make the team.

Sean Payton carried four running backs almost all of last season, and Samaj P. Ryan saves them double what it costs to cut Javante Williams. So maybe he will. I'm not saying that at all. I just don't know that there was actually – it was kind of like an opinion column that was written, like maybe these two are battling for one roster spot. And roster spot might be – The writer doesn't write the headline so that's you know i was trying to get somebody to read it uh secondly i i think if that was the first comment coming out about it then it would

be oh my gosh that's a little glaring it's like the fifth you know i mean there there has just been a constant drumbeat of gavante Williams could be in trouble. Right. Like if he were explosive and he looked like his old self, I don't think there'd be anything like this out there in the interwebs about Javante Williams. What stands out to me is that they could be competing for the passing down spot because Javante Williams has pretty good hands. I think he can absolutely make an impact on second and long third down stuff like that.

That's not the role that we wanted him when we drafted him in dynasty. When he was a rookie, we looked at him as a feature pack, but that might be the role that he gets. Now. SMA is not a very good pass catcher. At least he didn't prove to be one for the majority of his time at Notre Dame.

I don't remember if McLaughlin ever was, maybe he had a couple of games where he had some receptions, but I think Javante could handle that role. So if he can do that better than Piran and they save money on Piran, then that could be the role that Javante gets in Denver. I'd be surprised. So if you guys were going to target

a running back on the Broncos, are you taking him first? No, but I don't have to. That's true. I don't know if I want any of them. I want like I wouldn't't know if I want any of them. I wouldn't mind drafting a couple of them. None of them are going before round eight, so they don't cost you anything.

Sean Payton's going to draw up 750 running back screens. Somebody's going to score a bunch of PPR fantasy points. Yeah, if they get in the end zone, right? No, you don't have to. Well, P. Ryan... You catch five passes a game. I don't know if anyone's catching five passes a game. Combined they will, right? P. Ryan had 17 catches. I think combined it would be more

than that. P. Ryan had 50 catches last year, but he scored one touchdown. It's not like you could ever use Samaje P. Ryan, really. And Javante, did he have more than that? Javante had, what, 47 catches in 16 games. He scored five touchdowns.

You'd like someone to get more catches. 50 catches isn't bad, but there's got to be something with it. And Jaleel had 31 catches. Right. That's great. It's great. It's just you don't want them to split that maybe between two people instead of three. It would be nice. All right. Rashid Shaheed,

one-year contract, just over $5 million, $5.2 million. He's a popular breakout. Is he a top 100 pick for you, Rashid Shahid? Yes. No. Yeah, but barely, I think. Okay.

Jordan Love will not practice without a new contract. He won't be the only one. It sounds like, though, since the GM's the one that said it, that they're close. Yeah. Jonathan Brooks is on the non-football injury list. So, as I said earlier in the show, even if it is a football injury,

if it didn't happen while he was with the Panthers, it was a torn ACL last year in college, he's on the NFI list, which we're just going to keep an eye on this one and see when he comes back. Houston signed cam acres. I, this is a,

not really a big needle mover, right? He's coming off torn Achilles, just depth. Yep. Okay. Thank you. Very glowing about Joe Mixon.

Tank Dale wants to return kicks. And this is, this is, if you play in leagues with fun kick return yardage which i think more people are going to be doing now i think we're really going to have to start paying attention to this and who's going to do it because some of the best players are going to want to do it and i wouldn't be surprised if their coaches allow it because it could be such a weapon this year so keep tank true on mine but i also i also wonder how many coaches will see tank dell

or one of the dolphins speedy running backs or something like that waiting for a kick and just boot it out of the end zone so that's my biggest fear is that they didn't make the consequence of a touchback steep enough so what the third is it the third the third yeah that's it it's five more yards than last year that's 10 more yards than when we were growing up, though. It's starting to get to be a pretty big deal. The 30? Yeah. I don't think it's that big.

It's going to be one of those things where trial and error. There will be some games where they kick off. If it's returned to the 50, okay, we're done. Okay, let's get through the rest of the news. Daniel Popper of The Athletic thinks the Chargers three receiver set will be Ladd McConkie, Josh Palmer, and DJ Chark. And my question is, what's their two receiver set going to be?

Is that going to be McConkie out? Isn't that a big deal? If they're, I don't know how much they're going to be in three receiver sets. We know they're going to run the ball a lot. Does that mean they're going to be in two tight end sets a lot?

Does that mean McConkie's just not going to be on the field enough? I would, I would guess that there'll be one staple of an outside receiver, you know, so whether that's Palmer or Tark or maybe Johnston and then a rotation at the other one. Who's who are the best blockers? Yeah,

probably not McConkie be my guess, but I don't know. I would, maybe, but I'd love know. I would, maybe, but I'd love to see DJ Chark's blocking grade, run blocking grade. I'll look it up if you really care. No,

that's okay. Jaden Reed is on the NFI list, non-football injury list. Dallas COO, Steven Jones said an 18 game season is probably inevitable. The Ravens signed Eddie Jackson, the Ravens signed safety Eddie Jackson. Used to be a tremendous safety for the Bears.

Daniel Jones expected to be full go for the start of training camp. Hard knocks, expected to be pretty good tomorrow night. Jacoby Brissett is the starter for now, according to Chad Graff of The Athletic. It's for the New England Patriots. Denver wide receiver Tim Patrick coming off two big knee injuries, or two big leg injuries, I guess I should say. He's on the roster bubble, according to the Denver Post. Jacksonville defensive lineman Eric Armstead. Eric, with an A, Armstead is on the pup list.

Big free agent signing from the 49ers. Chicago tight end Gerald Everett is on the NFI list. And Cincinnati tight end Eric Hall is also on the non-football injury list as he continues recovering from a torn ACL. And let's play some more Devils. Devils go back to the Chargers situation have we seen anybody else besides Daniel Popper suggest this because I know that's twice we've referenced his his report so what you're saying that is that is what he's suggesting is that Quentin Johnston is just like not in the picture basically right he he's the only one that I've seen say this now again I haven't looked so I apologize if there's other people reporting it,

but I know this is the second time we've referenced it. So I just wonder if there's somebody else out there saying Quinn Johnston's fourth or fifth. I don't know. You guys ever hear a Dwayne stats of the Tampa Bay Rays calling games? Yes. He always used to go, and there's a popper.

And I always think about him when I read a Daniel Popper headline. There's a popper. He had this old broadcasty voice. All right, Jamie, let's play some Devil's Advocate. Jamie says Drake London will not be a bust. Heath has London in his bust column. Jamie, not thinking London's going to be a bust. Heath has London in his bust column. Jamie, not thinking London's going to be a bust. No, I think this is the type of player that we see break out.

You know, gets a better system, gets a better quarterback, you know, doesn't have to deal with the crap that he's dealt with for the last two seasons. And he was a high-profile draft pick coming out of college, you know. So these are the type of players that you should be gravitating toward. Now, if you don't want to pay the cost, I get it. You don't think he's going to do it. I understand, but I'm a believer that Kirk Cousins will come back at a hundred percent, you know, suffered his injury with enough time to recover. And as it is at an age where he should be okay.

And that London will finally get some catchable passes. I mean, you know, having to deal with Mariota and Ritter and, um, Heineke the last three years is totally different. You know, we've seen what Cousins has done with Jefferson and with Thielen and with Diggs during his time in Minnesota and just helping those guys elevate their games. And clearly they're great receivers. So we'll see if London can get there. It's a big ask. But I'm willing to take a chance on it. So I don't think he's going to be blessed.

I think he's going to have a breakout third year, which is when we see these guys breakout. Plus you have Zach Robinson, who we saw oversee the receiving court for the Rams, which has been good for Cooper Cup and obviously good for Puga Nakua last year, who had a breakout rookie campaign. Just to put a little point on Jamie's note of how bad the targets were for London, 22 and a half percent of the targets that he saw over the first two years were deemed uncatchable. Kirk Cousins off target rate over the past four seasons was 8.2%. So accuracy, baby, it'll be there.

That'll help London get a lot of catches. You want me next? Oh yeah. No, I just, I think there are a lot of paths to Drake London being a bust and he's mostly being drafted. Like a lot of times with breakouts they're being drafted higher

than what they've ever done but still with some room to be a lot better than that i'm not sure that's necessarily the case for drank lennon i think he's being drafted pretty much at his ceiling um there's a still a rake i know we're hopeful that kurt cousins is going to be okay but there's still some risk for an older quarterback coming off of a torn Achilles that he's not as accurate a passer as he was. I know we're hopeful for Zach Robinson that he's going to be a revelation as an offensive coordinator, but there is still some concern for a guy who's never actually been an offensive coordinator or called plays in the NFL that it doesn't go quite that well. We're hopeful it's going to be a super pass heavy offense, but we don't know that at all. It could, and we don't know for sure that pit

london's going to be better than pits i i am a little bit concerned by the fact that london's just never done anything after the catch his three yards per catch over the past two seasons is basically better than deandre hopkins tyler lock, and Adam Thielen. Yeah. Yeah, that holds me back from making Drake London like a top 15 type pick. And I think if you take him, you're banking on volume. And that's exactly why I have him ranked as a late round two pick, is because I think he is going to get the volume.

He's averaged almost seven targets per game over his career. I think that number can look like eight and a half this year. I think he's going to blow away everybody else in that offense in terms of targets. And he's just going to get a lot of opportunities and a lot of touchdown opportunities as well. Career year without question. That's easy to say.

I also, like I project for a career year, so I wouldn't say I'm not arguing that at all. That's easy. Do you, do you project him for something like 1500 yards and 10 touchdowns and 90 catches? 1,500 yards for Drake London? Something crazy.

Is that the ceiling or does that break through the ceiling? I don't think he would call him a bust if he's projecting that. Keith, are you taking the older receivers over London? Yes. So all three? All three. Adams, Evans, and Cup. I'll take London.

And George Pickens. Are you taking... Pickens is the one that could do the same thing. Yeah. Right. And I've said a lot about his yak, and it's not good, Drake London. His explosive play rate, though, is not bad.

I don't really quite get that. You know, I don't know if he's making a lot of big plays, but explosive play is, what, 16 yards as defined by Trinity? A lot of screens that go a lot longer than four or five yards. Yeah, so we'll learn a little bit more about Yak this year. We're starting to pay attention to it more and see if it translates to a completely new situation. All right, that's Drake London.

Let me just say this about London. I mean, on fantasy pros, he's wide receiver nine. He's basically got the same ADP as Marvin Harrison, but he's going slightly ahead of Harrison. On Draft Sharks, he's wide receiver nine. He's going ahead of Marvin Harrison. And he's an early second round pick in full PPR. People are wide receiver crazy in PPR. On CBS, Drake London is going after Harris. I think he's wide receiver 12. He's going after Harrison, Devontae Adams, and Nico Collins. He's going 31st, 32nd overall.

A very easy schedule for the Falcons. And I'll go back to something Rich Rebar said, that he's one of the 12 offenses. He's on one of the 12 offenses. Yeah, he is. I've got to take a break here. What's the 12 offenses? He's on one of the 12. Yeah, he is. I'm going to take a break. What's the 12 offenses? It's like Daisy.

The Shanahan. The Shanahan McVeigh tree. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Except I, once again, I forgot if it's 12,

including the Lions or 12. It was 12. You got it wrong. It was 13 with the Lions. 13 with the Lions. Okay. Yeah. 12,

12 offenses that have a Shanahan McVay disciple or Shanahan. Tampa is one of those two. Should be. No, it will be with Liam Coney. Oh, I don't remember putting them on the list. They should.

I don't think. Oh, wow. We got to expand the list. Okay. Let's take a break. When we come back, we'll talk about Amari Cooper.

Heath, do you like Cooper better than London? Yes. Hey, okay. Let's talk about that after this on FFT. Fall is almost gone, but have you sipped enough Starbucks fall faves? Enough of the pumpkin spice latte, the cinnamony pumpkin flavored legend, or the new iced apple crisp non-dairy chai. So silky, so smooth.

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Remember to follow all traffic signals. Be careful along our tracks and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. Amari Cooper was wide receiver 19 per game in full PPR, 15th per game in non-PPR. He's actually never finished higher than wide receiver 15 per game in PPR, but he's being drafted around wide receiver 30. So Heath is not like the Amari Cooper bust call by Jamie or, or maybe it's just devil's advocate. How do you feel here?

Heath? No, I, I think if you expect Amari Cooper to be what he was last year and you want to call him a bust, that's fine. If he's being drafted at the five, six turn as wide receiver 30, I think it's much,

much harder to make the bust case. He was much, much better with Deshaun Watson, who kind of just went away from throwing to tight ends and threw to the wide receivers. Right now, we have every reason to expect that Watson's going to be healthy. I think we should expect Cooper to be a number two wide receiver that you can get at wide receiver 30. He's part of that big blob. He's just being drafted at the very end of the big blob, which makes him more of a value pick for me than a bust. Good, Jamie. Yeah, wide receiver 30 is fine.

I don't have a problem with him being drafted there. Again, when we write these things, sometimes the values are a little bit different, as Dave alluded to with Mike Evans. I wrote this in May for our magazine, and we just ran it on the site. So yeah, so based on where he's getting drafted now, I don't think it's fair to call him a bust. But from a production standpoint, I do think he takes a step back. Again, he's hitting that age where you got to be a little concerned. They had another mouth to feed in this offense. That's

going to be somebody just taking away some targets from him. If it's a handful, if it's more than that. I know Jerry Judy's been terrible, but he's still going to get some opportunities based on how they paid him. And we have to see if, you know, I, I don't know exactly when the Browns report, but there was some talk about Cooper being a holdout because of his contract situation. So older receiver may be missing some time. And we can sit here and say that Watson's younger than Kirk cousins and coming off a different kind of injury, but he's still a quarterback coming off a significant injury, a shoulder injury that he's got to work his way back from as well. So I don't really want to target Amari Cooper.

If he's my third receiver, it's hard to argue with that. Is he a starter in a two-receiver league? Not anymore. And to take him over to Drake London to me is crazy. Okay. He's not going ahead of Drake London, but he is going ahead of tank dell t higgins malik neighbors christian kirk yeah no not for me i i'm good with that i think he's one

of the most underrated receivers in the nfl i think he's so good at what he does a hold out or a hold in would change my opinion on where i draft him. But if the blob is a bunch of wide receivers that should tow the line of averaging 15 PPR points, then I think he should be squarely in that blob. Maybe at the end of the blob, but in there, I will say one, one saving grace for him.

If Watson is hurt is, is Jameis will be good for him. Sure. And the same way Flacco was. I hope so. I mean, Jameis was, I don't think Jameis was so good last year. I hope so. I mean, James was, I don't think James was so good last year.

I think we were kind of like, whoa, let's get Derek Carr back out there, please. But it's better than Dorian Thompson Robbins. Yes. Okay. Uh,

Dave does not agree with the James Cook breakout pick, uh, call by both Jamie and Heath. And go ahead, Dave. Play devil's advocate on James Cook being a breakout. Well, first of all, he is going to have a career year because he hasn't had a big year yet or a big opportunity yet. So first and foremost, he will have better numbers

than he's had at any point in his career. But the Bills haven't had a glowing track record of running backs alongside Josh Allen. He did do better after the play caller changed last year until he didn't his final five games, 8.6 PPR points on average, zero touchdowns, 97 touches. That's awesome. In five games, 332 yards. I don't mind. I don't want to reach for James cook. That's where I stand on it. I don't think he's around to pick. I think he's around three selection and, and I worry a little bit about just how much work it, will he get as much work as he got last year?

And I think that Buffalo is just going to continue to ride Josh Allen. That's how they've competed for all these years and cook, whether it's because he doesn't hold up or because he doesn't get enough touchdowns will probably disappoint. If you're taking them with the top 24 pick, regardless of what he did toward the end of last year and what he did in the middle. When the coordinator change took over and he had some huge numbers, why didn't they make that change beforehand? Did they really look at it and say, well, let's wait and save him until after we make a coordinator change? It seems silly to me. If he was really that good, they would have started using him a lot more

at the beginning of the year, and then we'd have a much larger sample size of James Cook before coordinator change being awesome for fantasy managers. So I don't like the ADP. I don't like the price tag for James Cook. That's where I come from. I think there's a reason people get fired

because they don't use players appropriately. Right. But it didn't all fall on Ken Dorsey to make that call. Did it like, couldn't other Joe Brady had different ideas of what to do with James Cook and it worked out pretty good. I mean, they were struggling in the middle of the season, which is why they did it. And then they made the playoff.

And then what happened in the last five games, they kept going with Cook and he was ineffective. I don't know if I'd call him an effective. I think it was pretty good to help zero touchdowns and 60 total. I mean, the guy scored two rushing. It wasn't exactly like they used him. And if you're expecting Josh Allen to score 15 rushing touchdowns again,

then he should be your number one quarterback because I don't think he's going to go from seven to eight consistently for the course of his career jumps to 15. And if he does that again, then we're all drafting him too low. Heath, what do you have him projected for? I have him projected for a lot more than you would like, I'm sure.

Let's see, 1,191 rush yards, 450 receiving yards, 50 catches, and 8 touchdowns. I take the over on the receiving. I might not be so off on the receiving yards the rushing yards maybe a little too high eight touchdowns but i just say like he finished last year as rb11 maybe if i squint really hard i could see eight touchdowns but he it's just it just depends like it sounds like we're arguing over the definition of a breakout because you agreed that he's going to have a career year and he finished his RB11 last year. No, but he finished his RB19 per game.

Okay. Are you taking him in round two? I am, yes. Yes. PPR. Are you taking him over ETN, Pacheco, Henry? Definitely Pacheco and ETN and definitely Henry. Everybody but ETN in PBR.

Dave, I recently sort of came around on James Cook because I feel like, as I've been saying for months, for me anyway, once I get past about 18 picks or so, I don't really feel like there are guys that are obvious second rounders. I feel like you have to take a leap of faith on some guys. And I'm just ready to do it with James Cook because he doesn't have to replace Josh Allen's rushing touchdown. They just have to give him what they were giving Latavius Murray

just in terms of carries near the goal line. They just have to make him the next guy, right? Because just like the Eagles, like I said with Barkley, they're going to get so many opportunities there. He doesn't have to lead the team and goal line carries. He has to be second. But also I just feel like without Stefan Diggs, without really replacing him, the offense really needs to feature James Cook. I don't see how the bills are going to be good offensively unless James Cook is a really big part of it. So if we still think the bills are going to have a really good offense and we think that Cook is going to be a really big part of it. So if we still think the Bills are going to have a really good offense and we think that Cook is going to be a really

big part of it, and I will also take the over on 50 catches, even if he scores eight touchdowns, I think he's going to be a second rounder. I don't see him being a first round kind of player, but I came around on him. I just said, this guy's really talented.

They'd be stupid not to use him more. There's 240 targets they have to replace. And it's got to come from somewhere. Now, yes, Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel come in. Are they falling into all of those opportunities? It's hard to expect that. And so while Dalton Kincaid should get a boost, and obviously Khalil Shakir gets a boost. Like I said, it's crazy to think that it could happen, but it's not that difficult to see the path there for him to lead all running backs and receptions. You should be making the argument that they won't replace all of those targets and that they're just going to run the ball more. Sure. And they're going to put it in James

Cook's belly 25 times a game. But the one thing though, Adam, to the rushing touchdowns, I think Josh Allen's rushing touchdowns come down. Again, I don't think 15 is realistic for him. But that's where Ray Davis, I think, comes into play. Not necessarily James Cook automatically is getting those goal line opportunities, but I do think he'll get more of them. So, yes, I don't think he's only scoring two touchdowns on the ground. I think he's going to be 10 total touchdowns, if not more. All right.

How about we go to Jalen Waddle on Dave's bust list? And Heath says Jalen Waddle will not be a bust. I don't think Dave actually thinks he's a bust. As a tower? He's going 48th overall. I think Dave would draft him at 48th overall let me see where i am right it's probably close to it if not above it he oh yeah definitely above it right so the adp is 48 48th overall yeah cancel this he should go before 48th but that's it depends on the website you

look at on cbs yeah he's going a lot higher than that on fantasy pros and draft sharks. So where is he going on wide receiver two? Who was basically the same guy last year. He's going to average around 15 fantasy points per game. I'd put him towards the top of the blob because there is significant contingent upside if something happens to Tyreek Hill. Waddle could be the best wide receiver in fantasy.

And I think he's a great pick by current ADP and a good pick in round three. Yeah, let's talk about where would you take him? Because I don't know that I can buy him as we get...

We don't have that many drafts to go off of yet. I don't know that I could really buy Waddle at the 4-5 turn. Would you say 48th? 47th? Yeah, I don't know that I could really buy Waddle at the four or five turn, would you say 48th, 47th? Yeah.

I don't know that I could buy that. So where, maybe, I mean, he's coming off a bad year, but where he's going behind, he's going backwards. His,

his ADP got worse over the weekend. He's going behind Devante Smith, Cooper cup, DK Metcalf, Brandon, Iuke, like a DJ more crystal, a lot like a bunch of wide receivers.

Um, that we haven't ranked ahead of in Arkansas so it's not a running backs thing it's not a quarterbacks being drafted too early thing yeah but it's just on our site that's kind of what I was saying but so would you you would you all take would any of you take him in the middle 30th overall Jalen Waddle I think I can find another receiver I'd'd take him before that. I would too. Is it so obvious, Heath, that he should be going ahead of,

that Waddle should be going ahead of those guys? Who did you say? I didn't say it was necessarily so obvious. I'm just saying it's a bunch of wide receiver twos that he's being drafted after. So it's not as if it's something weird about our site because running backs are too high or something like that. Yeah. On Fantasy Pros, he's going ahead of Iuke, Evans, Kup, Devon.

I don't really know what to make of it. On our site, he seems to be going lower. Jalen Waddle's going lower. I would take him ahead of all those guys. I like his ADP, though. Okay. All right. Then we'll go to a different one. How about...

Can I make one small statement on Waddle? Mm-hmm. In the last two seasons, there have been eight games where both Tyreek and Waddle have had at least 15 PPR points from Tua. Tua has supported multiple wide receivers, regardless of their names, to 15-plus in the same game nine times in 30 games. That part makes me really nervous. I don't know if Tua can support it. And this is an offense that likes to use a bunch of different players at different positions. There's already talk that A-chan's going to get more work. Last year, there wasn't a single game where Waddle had 15 or more

PPR points when both A-chan and Tyreek were healthy. If you want to talk about contingent upside, this guy's got, he might be wide receiver one if tyreek hill wins the lottery doesn't play this season but short of that i'm nervous that he's gonna be in that he might be behind that 15 point range that we talked about okay uh we'll do one more jamie says trey mcbride will not last year in the two years before uh jamie says trey mcbride will not be a bust he is is on Dave's bust list. Trey McBride. He's number one for Heath. We're going to talk about that on the network show later today.

But Jamie, you saw Dave put Trey McBride in the bust column. And we heard on Friday, we heard Dave talk or Thursday, Dave talk about McBride. It's not like he's super low on him or anything, but you say he will not be a bust. Trey McBride, Jamie. No, I think he builds off what he did last year. And obviously the addition of Marvin Harrison is going to cut into his target share, I think, a little bit. I don't think significantly.

The Cardinals threw the most targets to their tight ends as a group for the season last year. They led the NFL. And so Drew Petsik comes from Kevin Stefanski's coaching tree. This is a very tight end friendly offense. That's kind of why we're looking at the Patriots potentially as maybe involving Hunter Henry because of Alex Van Pelt going there. McBride scored three touchdowns last year.

Two of them came with Kyler Murray, who was not at 100% coming back from his ACL. He's going to be better this year. And so while McBride was getting fed targets, he also was getting covered like the number one option in the passing game. Now he goes to the 1A. And look, it may take some time for Marvin Harrison to automatically come in and be that alpha type of guy from the game. It might take two weeks, but you know, it still could take a little bit of time. I don't think McBride's going anywhere. I think what we saw last year is just the scratching the surface. He was averaging 14.9 PPR points per game in the,

from week eight on after Zach Ertz left the team. And that was the best tight end in fantasy from that stretch. So I think he's just going to continue to get better. He's going to find the end zone more, uh, the setup for him is perfect, you know, so he could be the number one fantasy 10. And I don't think it's a stretch to say that. If you, if the setup for him was perfect, Marvin Harrison wouldn't be there because it was those last year where McBride averaged 8.4 targets per game. I can't see that. And listen, I've got him as my number four tight end in full PPR. It really comes down to where we're drafting Trey McBride and whether or not we're taking him over Mark Andrews.

And I just like the track record for Mark Andrews. And I think Andrews will be the number one target getter in Baltimore. I'll take that in full PPR over McBride, who I think sees a downturn in targets. Jamie, three touchdowns last year for Trey McBride, two with Kyler Murray. In how many games with Kyler Murray? Half a season about? Week 10 on. Yeah, that's almost half a season.

That makes me a little nervous to count on him for a bunch of scores. I'm definitely, I'm way out on Trey McBride and non PPR. I still think he can get seven targets per game. I still think he can be the number two target getter. I think he's a top five tight end and full PPR, but I'm not taking him with one of my first four picks. You said if McBride was going to build off what he did last year, they would not draft Marvin Harrison.

No, Marvin Harrison wouldn't be there. No, no, because I think, I think Harrison is going to suck up so many targets. That's not what he did last year, they would not draft Marvin Harrison. No, Marvin Harrison wouldn't be there. No, no, no. Because I think Harrison is going to suck up so many targets. That's not what he said. And that's been the case. We've seen it before. Yes, hold on.

With Kyler Murray and his number one guy. And last year, for 10 games, McBride was his number one guy. Trying to help him. Jamie, I think you said it was a perfect situation for him or something like that. And then Dave said if it were a perfect situation, Marvin Harrison wouldn't be there. And I don't hate McBride. I just hate him in round four. Hate's a strong word.

I don't like him in round four. I know. I mean, I've seen this argument on our show from our audience. The people that are a little hesitant with Trey McBride will always point out, well, they brought in Marvin Harrison. Everything he did last year, he had the highest target share and I think the second highest target per out run rate among tight ends in those eight games where he went off. I don't remember if I just did the Kyler Murray sample

or the entire thing, but, you know, that's what they're concerned about. It's just, is Marvin Harrison killing his fantasy value? Not killing, lowering. Yes, right. And I just would say, especially to the touchdowns point,

touchdowns are really the only thing Sam Laporta was elite at last year. His efficiency, his target share was good, but not near as good as what Trey McBride was. Historically speaking, the number of fantasy points you score based on catches and yards are more sticky, more predictive the following year than the number of fantasy points you score on touchdowns. Touchdowns fluctuate a lot more. They go up and down. So I am more confident betting on the catches in the yards than i am on

the touchdowns and that's why you have mcbride over laporta this year right i get it and i am curious well no well i was gonna say we'll save it for the show on the cbs sports network show but now let's do it here how does harrison factor into that though though, for you? Well, I mean, I've talked about this a lot before, but this offensive coordinator came from the Stefanski system, which is a tight end-centric system. A lot of times when they drop back and the guy downfield wasn't open, they don't dump it off to a running back. They dump it off to Trey McBride, and he did some pretty fun stuff

after the catch at times last year. So, yeah, I think his target share, he was on pace for 144 targets in the final 10 games after Ertz went down. Do I think he's going to have 144 targets? No, but I would expect he's going to have more than 120 and the efficiency is going to be better and he's going to have a better touchdown rate. And it wasn't just McBride. It was Ertz before McBride. Right. And it was in different systems, just to be fair. Like, Ertz had some good games

with Kingsbury. Let me see if I can just read from my notes. There is not much of a sample size of Kyler Murray, Zach Ertz, and DeAndre Hopkins. In 2021, Ertz played 11 games with Arizona after being traded

from Philadelphia. DeAndre Hopkins played in only four of those games, and really only three of them because he was injured during one of those. In 2022, Hopkins missed the first six games of the season. Then this is basically it. In the next three games of the season, Ertz was on pace for 96 targets and Hopkins was on pace for 181 targets.

Of course, Ertz was actually on pace for 11 touchdowns, but 96 targets. But that can't look at three games that's the thing we can't make it would be nice because it's separate points DeAndre Hopkins was a stud and Zach Ertz was a stud with Kyler Murray but didn't really happen together but it's also a different offense though it's a different offense but it's the same quarterback

who's shown a clear tendency to lean on one guy and whoever that one guy is that he thinks is going to be great. That's who gets, it could be double digit targets for Marvin Harrison. And I think that that might be going a little too far and I love Marvin Harrison, but I think he's going to come in and be an impact player right away. Get a lot of target. Let's call it nine per game and be a factor in the red zone. I think Trey McBride will be good. I just don't want to reach for him on draft day.

And that's round four or three. Cool. Done. Good Heath. All right. That's it. That's it for us. We have a fun week coming up.

We have Jacob Gibbs joining us for some projections later this week. I hope you all have been reading his newsletter. And he's got projections for every team. It's really, really fascinating stuff. He's going to talk to us about play volume and how to predict it and what it means. We've got our network show and we've got our draft-a-thon. So again, go to tinyurl.com slash draft-a-thon 2024. And we will talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.