Fantasy Football Today - Discount Shopping! Best Draft Day Discounts & Brendan Sorsby News (06/16 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 16, 2026

We've gone discount shopping to find players who are significantly cheaper than they were a year ago and could provide major value at their current ADP. We start the show with our favorite discounts (...2:20) for 2026, then shift to the Brendan Sorsby news (11:39) and his dynasty implications. The guys talk 1st & 2nd round discounts like Saquon Barkley and CeeDee Lamb (25:09), plus other early round value (32:01). Later, they break down Bucky Irving (43:04), Ladd McConkey (45:20), & Patrick Mahomes (53:07), who all dropped in ADP from last season. We finish with rapid fire discounts to end the show! (56:08). Looking for the best value in your 2026 Fantasy Football drafts? Fantasy Football Today has you covered!Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcastsWatch FFT on YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? It's a no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays on his feet. It's just going to go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
Starting point is 00:00:19 Fantasy football today on Tuesday, June 16th. What's up, everybody? Welcome to the show, Adam, Dave, and Jamie here. Discount shopping. We are looking for some bargains in our fantasy draft. players whose ADPs are considerably lower than they were last year. Or in the case of first or second round picks, maybe there are five picks lower or something like that.
Starting point is 00:00:40 But you know what? Christian McCaffrey, he was a discount in 2025 because he was first overall in 2024, discounted to seventh overall in 2025. Bam, great pick there. Other good discounts last year. I would say Tyreek Hill. He went from third overall to 33rd overall in ADP,
Starting point is 00:00:58 and he was pretty solid in the three and a half games he played. Jonathan Taylor dropped from RB5 in 2024 to RB9 in ADP in 2025, and he was amazing. Travis E.T.N. Remember all the confusion about the Jaguars backfield? He went from 17th overall in ADP in 2024 to 99th in 2025. And Devante Adams was a good value pick. He went from 22nd overall to 40th overall. So you can look for guys that were coming off disappointing seasons, or maybe there's some bad preseason buzz or something like that, and maybe you can profit. on it in your drafts. Oh, good morning, Jamie.
Starting point is 00:01:35 Good morning. Dave. I love a good deal. I do, you know, I used to shop at thrift stores a lot. You might surprise you. It probably doesn't surprise you too much, but that had like a little thrift store face in college. The old pair didn't go out and get you what you needed?
Starting point is 00:01:52 One of your favorite shirts is one that I wore in fifth grade. Yeah, I did. That's a good deal. Yeah. Is your son going to wear that shirt? someday? That's not a bad idea. It doesn't fit him already.
Starting point is 00:02:09 It was 80, 89, 87? I didn't even remember. 88 or 89. 89 national championship shirt. That shirt is older than some of our viewers. Any of our viewers. And all of our producers. But not us.
Starting point is 00:02:25 And one of our, all of our producers. One of our mailbag participants. By the way, we're having a mailman. bag on Thursday. All right. Anyway, who's your favorite discount for 2026? Favorite discount this year?
Starting point is 00:02:40 Dave? I mean, if Josh Jacobs stays at 40th overall, which I doubt he will, he would probably be up there for me just because I think he's still going to be workload running back, tons of touchdowns, good, must-start fantasy R.B.
Starting point is 00:02:57 And cool little note from running back's coach Ben Sermens for the Packers. He said that Marshaun Lloyd is the fastest and the quickest running back on the roster. He can do things that others can't. So maybe that's a handcuff for Josh. How about cool things? Just that he's healthy. Right. Yeah. That's awesome. Now, I'm trying to think if I still have them in my dynasty league. I think I have not given up on him yet. Jamie, who's your favorite discount? Of a former star? Well, no, I mean, look, on today's show,
Starting point is 00:03:28 we're going to talk about everyone from Seekwon Barkley and C.D. Lamb, who are slightly discounted to Cortland Sutton, who's 26 picks lower. Not someone who's like Jonathan Brooks, for example. I didn't even think about him, but,
Starting point is 00:03:43 oh, because he's not discounted from last year. He's discounted. So it's got to be somebody who was priced higher than they are now. Right. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:03:51 Okay, so I think I referenced this before I left on vacation. Travis Kelsey's lowest ADP since his second year of his career. So Travis Kelsey. Yeah. You know who else? And I think the Chief's offense just in general is full of discounts,
Starting point is 00:04:06 except for Rishu Rice. Another guy who's got his lowest ADP since his second season is a guy that I don't think any of us actually want is D.K. Metcalf. He's down from 49th overall to 72nd overall. Yeah, that's the low. Actually, I think it's the lowest since his rookie season. Yeah. So lowest ADP Metcalf has had since his rookie season, I believe.
Starting point is 00:04:31 It's crazy. And I don't think we're going to be loving him. I'm going to give you one that we haven't discussed much. And I never draft him because the position's so deep, I don't feel like I have to. But Baker Mayfield is QB 20 in ADP right now. And Baker Mayfield averaged 24.9 points per game and six point per passing touchdown leagues.
Starting point is 00:04:51 That's awesome. That's almost a full point more than what Drake may average for a full season in his first six games. First six games, he was living up to it, right? Because he was QB4 per game in four point, QBee 3 per game and 6 point in 2024. Comes out first month and a half. Everything looks great and then everything fell apart for the Buccaneers. Even if he doesn't have a great season again, he's QB 20 in ADP.
Starting point is 00:05:15 I think you could do worse than Baker Mayfield. So he's a nice distance. Why the position is so deep. He's obviously going to get drafted much later than the Josh Allen's and Lamar Jackson's and those type of guys that are going to go at the top of the position. But would it jocke you? Not the same heights, obviously. But maybe if Baker Mayfield is this year's Matthew Stafford.
Starting point is 00:05:38 No. No. Because he can run, too. He's willing to. It was the injuries. We're just going to point to the same thing for like all the Bucks players from last year. They just got beat to hell. And Baker was chief among them.
Starting point is 00:05:52 The line wasn't good. Could you see him? Think about the quarterbacks that are going around like 12th. It's Trevor Lawrence. It's Purdy. Tyler, like, there's a world where he can finish ahead of those guys. Sure. Dave, I'm not sure if you have the CBS ADP comparing 2025 to early 26.
Starting point is 00:06:14 But in fantasy, yeah, we're using Fantasy Pro's ADP today to compare 2025 to 2025 to 26. But in the Fantasy Pros ADP, one of the strange things is the quarterbacks are going so much later. Lamar Jackson, for example, was QB2 last year and he went 22nd overall. QB2 this year is also Lamar Jackson still It's going 51st overall Jamie I think we usually expect that to Normalize and the quarterback start going earlier As I guess more casual players start drafting
Starting point is 00:06:47 Toward the end of August Toward August and whatnot Always depends on which ADP you use You know ours unfortunately does not filter out Superflex and two QB leagues versus some other sites that do So that changes some of the ADP that you look at. But yeah, I, I, I, look, we, we say it all the time.
Starting point is 00:07:06 I just got finished saying it. You know, it's, it's quarterbacks. People like the security of, they get to the middle to the end of round two. And it's like, oh, the seventh running back, the 10th running back, the 10th receiver, the 12th receiver, like the quarterbacks just feel safer. You know, why shouldn't I take Josh Allen who finishes first or second his position every year, Lamar Jackson, who can score 30 points per game? So it's, it's totally understanding.
Starting point is 00:07:30 But again, you know, unless you're, you're, you feel like you're getting 28 plus points per game. And you just mentioned that Baker could be 24 points per game like that. That difference is big. But, you know, the player that you might be getting there hopefully will be better. Another position. All right. So some of the discounts that we mentioned here, Josh Jacobs going 40th overall. Last year, he was 16th overall.
Starting point is 00:07:54 This one's fluid, though. That's all field stuff that people were concerned about. Travis Kelsey, big discount this year. see he is 57 spots lower than he was and baker mayfield last year was qb seven this year he's cuby 20 we got a lot more to talk about today we're going to mention some discounts that we just don't care about i mean i don't think we're going to be drafting a lot of james connor for example but you should know about them anyway i have a dan schneier conundrum maybe you guys can help me out don't do those james connor's on the jaguars i don't know backers um i'm not saying we're not drafting him i just don't
Starting point is 00:08:30 know that we're i don't let me see we're we're probably not drafting him very high right now if he's a cardinal he's going 216th cardinals running next yeah 2006th overall right now so we he could he could be a steal i guess at that um all right so jamie was supposed to go to this fsga conference with me next month um and he's unable to so this is the fantasy sports and gaming association and now schneier's going so i've got this conundrum I either drive two and a half hours by myself, or I pick him up halfway, and I add 20 minutes to the trip, both ways.
Starting point is 00:09:12 Do I? There's going to be something that happens at this conference that has never happened before. What's that? Two people will meet each other for the first time ever. Be it's Scott Fish. He texted me yesterday and he goes, ironically enough, I was just about to unfortunately call on cancel,
Starting point is 00:09:29 And Scott texts me. He goes, I can't wait. I'm going to hang out with you in Philly. I was like, probably not. Yeah, I had no idea. I was like, yeah, Jamie's coming too. I was talking to Scott yesterday. And then I found out later in the day, Jamie is not going.
Starting point is 00:09:42 Dan Schneier is going, and I'm adding 20 minutes to my trip. Baseball got in the way. Baseball? Oh, man. Oh, we would have had fun. But Dan's already promised to take me to his favorite Philadelphia eateries, where they have sandwiches named, cheese steaks named after him. So we're very excited.
Starting point is 00:09:57 Did they invent the sandwich because of Dan? Yeah. Like, yeah, you got to put onions on this. Oh, okay. All right. Email of the day real quick is from Stefan. Email addresses Fantasy Football at CBSI.com. Fantasy football at CBSI.com, that's the letter I.
Starting point is 00:10:15 Stefan says, just listen to the Monday episode of FFT. When Dave said, I love lemon, I immediately thought of the I love lamp line, too. Great minds think alike. See, there you go, Dave. you're not the only two. I got a DM from 24-7 sports reporter Eli Berkovitz who said that he also thought of it and a couple of other people commented that they thought of I love Lamp at the same time that I love Lemon. So this is not going to be the last time you hear me say that those words. And we're going to keep thinking of a good old, good old brick every time. Oh, I should probably get off
Starting point is 00:10:53 pop culture and get back out of the show. But I think you would have been so mad. this as well. So Happy Gilmore was on, I think Comedy Central yesterday or two days ago. And you didn't call me and tell me. I turned it on and it's the endless love seed. And so she goes, happy, I didn't see it go in. And they start kissing and they go to commercial before you see the Zamboone guy. Oh, singing along. It's the funny. It's one of my favorite parts of the movie. He bows his head like solemnly at the end. Oh, guy, I couldn't believe it was how can you cut that part? That's the best part.
Starting point is 00:11:33 All right. That's the best part. It's one of my favorite. It's, I love like understated subtle humor. Me too. It's so funny. There's a lot of that. You know that scene?
Starting point is 00:11:47 Yeah, of course. That's so good. Know that scene. Like asking Jamie if he's ever seen a cloud. Let's talk about Brendan Sorsby real quick. We'll do some news and notes. Sorsby, so quarterback for Cincinnati, he transfers to Texas Tech, got the gambling thing. He's going to enter the supplemental draft.
Starting point is 00:12:04 He's not going to play this year for Texas Tech. So the supplemental draft is they do a somewhat random order. They do like a lottery for the picks, but it's not like everyone has a chance to get, you know, the top five pick or whatever. I'm not going to go through it all. But there's a lottery that determines the order. And then any team can. submit a bid. And if the team
Starting point is 00:12:26 submits a first round bid for Sorsby, he's the only player in the supplemental draft, they will lose their first round pick next season. They cannot put in a
Starting point is 00:12:36 bid for a pick that they don't have. If they don't have a fourth round pick, they can't submit a bid for a fourth round pick. But they can, you know, any pick they have,
Starting point is 00:12:43 they can put in a bid for Sorsby. Soresby is, you know, pretty damn, pretty exciting. It would be QB2 if this was the real draft. Right.
Starting point is 00:12:51 He would have gone ahead of Ty Simpson most likely. Yes. Yep. And he's mobile, really mobile. And, you know, it sucks that these are the circumstances on which he's going to the NFL, but he makes dynasty drafts more interesting, especially Superflex. Well, he makes dynasty drafts more complicated that have already happened.
Starting point is 00:13:10 Yeah, well, guess what? You shouldn't have done it. You shouldn't have done it. Yeah, because of this. Yeah, because of a once, like, three decade event happens. So, Jamie, what should dynasty managers do? let us know after we take this break. We're going to take a quick one here on fantasy football today.
Starting point is 00:13:29 When we come back, the dynasty conundrum with Brendan Sorsby and then more discounts and more news from mini camps after this. You've already had your dynasty draft, Jamie, your rookie only draft. What do you do here? I mean, I think the easiest thing is you just put him in the free agent pool and, you know, do your blind bidding for him like you would if anybody was not drafted. It just makes it easiest way.
Starting point is 00:13:51 I've seen a lot of complicated situations that are trying to mirror what the NFL is doing where you have to submit a first round pick for 2027 or a pick for 2027 and do it that way. I just think you treat them as a free agent. You know, it's the easiest way to solve it. Dave, what would you do? I like that idea. I think that that's simple. And you should just keep it simple.
Starting point is 00:14:13 And if you want to do a supplemental draft idea for this where, you know, team said I'd use a first round pick on them. The way the NFL does it, you correct me. if I'm wrong, any team that had six or fewer wins, they are in one third of the lottery. Any team that made the playoffs is in another third. And then the other group that had more than six wins but didn't make the playoffs, they're in a group in the lottery. So like, let's say there were seven teams that had six or fewer wins.
Starting point is 00:14:45 They each get, you know, ping pong balls or whatever. and then their order is selected. So the Raiders would have the, I think I read this on ESPN.com, the Raiders would have the most ping pong balls, 32, and the Seahawks would have won. But the Seahawks are not in the same lottery as the Raiders and the Browns and the Giants
Starting point is 00:15:05 and all the teams that won six or fewer games. So it's like, it's tiered. A team with the best record can move up, but only within that tier. So if you want to try to do it like that, you could create different tiers where a guy just won or a girl just won your dynasty league. It's just too complicated.
Starting point is 00:15:22 Yeah, right. This is already too. I'll give you just real-life scenario here, and I don't know how this happened with three different players, but it did in a dynasty league that Dave and I are with that's run by Heath, where we do a six-round rookie draft. And for three years in a row, I was able to,
Starting point is 00:15:44 he doesn't do his bids, his free agent bids until right before the start of the season. So he does the rookie draft and then locks the league, and then you can do bids right before the season starts. So you get to see what players that didn't get drafted, essentially, have done in training camp. For three years in a row, I spent my entire free agent budget, which is $1,000 on three different rookies,
Starting point is 00:16:07 Pukunakua, Kairn Williams, and Isaiah Pacheco. Because they all had strong training camps or we're in good spots, or I just liked the situations for those guys. I did it for a fourth player too, and it didn't work out in Deonti Thompson last year, or two years ago, excuse me. But it's allowed me to stay so competitive in this league
Starting point is 00:16:29 because I've gotten these superstars, essentially. Oh, sorry. What would you do if multiple teams bid 100 or 1,000, their entire budget? So then it's down to, I believe the tiebreaker is your, I'm guessing would be your previous. record from a year ago. Right.
Starting point is 00:16:46 So the worst, the worst record you had the higher you are in the, like draft order, as Dave said. Okay. Right.
Starting point is 00:16:52 But I think in the case of Sorsby, if you're in a super flex league and you think he is going to be, because think about most dynasty free agent, but free, this is what my philosophy has always been.
Starting point is 00:17:02 Most dynasty free agents suck. Yeah. Yeah. Free agent pool suck. Because the rosters are so, like that league is the IDP league. We carry 20 players. I should say the six-round draft
Starting point is 00:17:13 also faction defense player. So it's IDP league. The free agent pool typically sucks. You may get lucky and get somebody who comes out of nowhere. Somebody had to cut somebody that was, you know, end of their roster, couldn't handle anymore, whatever the case may be. I don't know. For me, like in I have one Super Flex League, two Super Flex leagues that have drafted already.
Starting point is 00:17:36 I'll probably spend my entire budget that that's the way they do it with SORC. I try, you know, honestly, I don't honestly know much about him as a prospect. I watched today a little bit. And, yeah, I don't really have any strong feelings, but this is not the best way for him to enter the NFL, I think. And also, like, he did place 9,000 bets. There is that possible. I mean, it's in his history.
Starting point is 00:17:59 If it happens again, it might be something you want to consider here. If happens again, he might not play football ever. Right, but this is better for him than sitting out a year. It's better than sitting out a year, but it's obviously worse than not playing a year. not a lot of, I feel like there aren't a lot of success stories in the supplemental drive. There aren't that many stories to begin with. Right. So, yeah, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:18:18 I don't know if it's, use the first round pick on him. Teams have multiple first round picks. So in a, it would be able to be very interesting. In a, in a dynasty league that didn't draft yet, their rookie draft, where do you think will go? Superflex? Yeah. He's probably a late first round pick at the end of the other.
Starting point is 00:18:39 He might actually go as high. like 10th, 9th or 10th. I mean, Simpson went first round in many Superflex rookie drives so far. I'm wondering if, you know, he goes before Kenyon Sadiq, in non-tideon Premium League Superflex. I think he probably might. Look, we know what rosters look like now for 2026. So if he goes to a team that has a very shaky quarterback situation, let's just say, for example, the Cardinals make a bid, the Browns make a bid, the Jets make a bid.
Starting point is 00:19:09 I'm trying to think of other teams that aren't, you know, locked in a quarterback for, for 2027, let alone 2026, you know, kind of issues. If he has a chance to start, he's definitely a first round pick. And then if he is in a situation where he is going to potentially start next year, you know, look, next year's quarterback class, we know is, look, we've been talking about this for a very long time. Anybody's followed the NFL drafts, I've been talking about this for a very long time. So if you're the Browns or the Jets or one of these teams,
Starting point is 00:19:39 that have multiple first-round picks, like, do you want to take the chance on wasting that this year on a guy that has some off-field issues and a guy that's not guaranteed to be elite? He could be really good, but still question marks. I don't know. I think it's maybe not worth it. If you're already in the mindset of we were potentially tanking.
Starting point is 00:20:00 You know, now if you're the Steelers, this is a great move. Yeah. Mm-hmm. I think, by the way, losing Sorsby next year, it makes it less loaded. I mean, this was a first round pick next year that's for the teams that were like, oh, 2027, we're going to have all these quarterbacks. That's a big deal to lose even one of them. There still could be five really good quarterbacks, maybe more, maybe one fewer in next year's draft.
Starting point is 00:20:30 It's not like this ruins the 2027 draft. No, no, it doesn't. Or at least I don't think it does. We've talked about draft classes. being loaded previously and then they end up not being as good as we thought. But there are a lot of very interesting quarterbacks in college football.
Starting point is 00:20:47 College football is going to be very fun this year. Well, it should be for us, Dave. All right, George Pickens reported a minicamp. RJ Harvey had off-season shoulder shoulder surgery. He had a torn labrum in the AFC championship game.
Starting point is 00:21:03 Apparently the Jaguars nearly signed J.K. Dobbins this offseason. And Bo Nix is going to be full go for training camp after ankle surgery. So a lot of Broncos news there. Mentioned the Marshawn Lloyd thing. And then the Jets signed offensive guard, Joe Tipman, to a four-year, $66.4 million deal.
Starting point is 00:21:27 Wow, you couldn't find the sound in time? No, that was my cousin Vinnie joke. Not going to be able to talk about Joe Tipman very often. Tipman. here we go. Best discounts or biggest discounts in fantasy football. I hope this is a fairly complete list. I may have missed some people. There were a lot of guys. But my rule was 10 picks lower than where they were last year unless it's a first or second round player. Because like I mentioned, you know, Christian McCaffrey was a six pick discount, but he was amazing.
Starting point is 00:21:56 Jonathan Taylor was about a 10 pick discount last year. All right. But let's, so I'm just going to, let's go through it, you know, pretty quickly, I think, for the guys you really. want to talk about, we'll stay on it. But Sequin Barclay, big discount. Fourth overall last year, 15th overall this year. It's 11 spots lower. Dave, is that a good bargain? I think it's a good bargain. I don't think it's a great bargain. Obviously, Barclay has the potential to be outstanding. We saw it two seasons ago. I don't think he can necessarily hit that now. He's 29 years old, but he can still average somewhere between 16 and 18 PPR points per game. It's a new look, Philadelphia offense.
Starting point is 00:22:34 Theoretically, it should involve him a little bit more in the passing game. And it's still the same bugaboo. It's him not being able to score a ton of touchdowns if Jalen Hertz is going to be push pushing his way in for double digit touchdowns every single season. So a good running back, good value all things considered. That's it. Okay. Next up is C.D. Lamb.
Starting point is 00:22:59 Jamie C.D. Lamb went from fifth overall and wide. receiver two last year to currently to 11th overall and wide receiver six. So this is like a Christian McCaffrey type discount, six picks lower than what he was last year late in the first round. Is that a good enough discount for C.D. Lamb? Yeah, I think so. You know, the hope would be is that he gets more production in the end zone. That was a big thing for him last year, was that George Pickens did such a much better job of finding the end zone than C.D. Lamb did when they were both healthy at the end of the season. The hard part for me with C.D. Lamb is like it just feels like we're
Starting point is 00:23:38 chasing the end of 2023. And he's been a very, very good fantasy receiver, you know, one of the best top 10 caliber player, but we kind of treat him like a top three receiver for the last two years. And is he that guy? I hope he is. I just don't know if he can be that in the environment of George pick-ins on the field and this running mate that's there, a better defense so we don't see as much volume in the passing game or the need to have as much volume in the passing game. That being said, when you start to compare his, because I don't want to chase the 20 plus point per game CD-LAM. I want to chase the 17-plus point per game CD-Lam.
Starting point is 00:24:22 And when you put him in that context, he is receiver 6-10 range. And so I think this is where receiver 6-10 range lives, which I'm fine with. So I think the discount on CD Lamb is appropriate. He's a back end of round one, beginning of round two guy for me. And I think, you know, as you're looking at the screen here, the receivers that he's in the mix with, I think is fair, especially if Rashi Rice is, you know, cleared and good to go, no issues. So for me, it would be, I don't have the order exactly in front of me.
Starting point is 00:24:50 I think Lamb is first, but Lamb, Jefferson, London, left, London Lamb, Jefferson, Rice. You know, so looking at those guys, I may I forgot somebody, but those group of receivers sort of picks 10 through 15, I think, is where they belong. I wonder if Nico's in that group for you, too. He's behind those guys. Okay. And I'm basically the same as you.
Starting point is 00:25:11 I feel the exact same way. Here's the sample that I'm looking at. There were seven games last year. Quinn and Williams arrived in Dallas. He was playing that defense played better. Lamb had eight targets per game, 14.2 PPR points per game. And I feel like that's the floor. And I don't think, you know, Jamie, you referenced what he did in 2024.
Starting point is 00:25:30 that was 17.6 ppr points per game. Obviously, there was no George Pickens, and he was getting 10.1 targets per game. I'm a little nervous about him getting any more than eight targets per game. I think he can do better than 14.2 ppr points per game on eight targets per game because he can get more touchdowns. But I can't draft him like I was drafting him last year and the year before that because I just don't think he's got that same type of ceiling anymore.
Starting point is 00:25:55 So I'm with you. I prefer to get him in early round two. Okay, let me, all right. CD Lamb is a guy that I feel like we haven't done a deep dive on him so I'm just going to throw out some numbers at you first of all you talked about the games with Quinn and Williams I assume you're counting week 18 he left that game he had one target in that game he left at half time he also had eight targets at Detroit and he had 121 yards and he left that game I think early third quarter so less than 50% of the snaps in two of those games for CD Lamb so first of all let me just say I don't think think he can get the same target volume. His target per out run rate, I agree with you on that. His target per out run rate in his last three seasons, 29%, 29.1%, and last year it was 25%. So expect fewer targets. But you talk about 2023 was amazing. 2024 was disappointing. He was wide receiver 9 per game, CD Lamb, in full PPR. He was worse than that in the other formats. What happened in that season?
Starting point is 00:26:54 Dak Prescott missed 10 games. It was about 9 and a half games. When he was with, he was with With Dak Prescott, he was on pace for 109 catches, 1,489 yards, 10 touchdowns on 175 targets. And he also was on pace for 90 rushing yards. And he always gets some rushing yards. Like, not just some. He always gets like a decent amount, 70 or more rushing yards, although I don't remember if he did last year. I think he was almost at 19 PPR points per game.
Starting point is 00:27:22 I am at 19.2. So let's say 19. So he followed up that amazing season with 19 points per game with, Jack Prescott in 24, with Dak Prescott not even really having a good season. That kind of struggled that year. And then everything was much worse with Cooper Rush. So I don't want to hold 2024 against him too much. The Pickens thing is a big deal.
Starting point is 00:27:42 But to be optimistic in the last 10 games of the year, not including week 18. C.D. Lam was only wide receiver 13 per game. This is when he came back from injury and was on the field with Pickens. He did leave one of the games injured. but the last 10 games excluding week 18, Pickens was better, but Lamb was on pace for 156 targets. And while he was only on pace for five touchdowns, he had 16 red zone targets.
Starting point is 00:28:12 Pickens had 10. Lamb had seven green zone targets. Pickens had three. Lamb had 12 end zone targets in 10 games. And yet he only caught three touchdowns. So I actually think if you just look at the last 10, 10 games of the year, not week 18, and you tell me he's going to get 156 targets, he's going to get an end zone target per game, which would basically lead the NFL.
Starting point is 00:28:39 I think Lamb would probably overperform 11th overall, honestly, and be a good bounceback player. I can't guarantee those things are going to happen, but I think under the hood, there's some really encouraging stuff for CD Lamb, even though the production wasn't great. Okay. I guess no need to respond, but I wanted to throw those numbers out there. Justin Jefferson was sixth overall, almost the same exact thing as Lamb. They went from fifth and sixth overall last year at about 11th overall. So, Jamie, who's a better bargain? I think you said you have Lamb ahead of Jefferson?
Starting point is 00:29:13 Yeah, I mean, I think just looking at it, there's more certainty because you know what Dak Prescott's capable of with C.D. Lamb, as opposed to what the hope is with Kyler Murray and Justin Jefferson. Obviously, it should be a bounce back year for Jefferson with an upgraded quarterback. The problem is that we've only seen Kyler Murray support an elite level receiver one time. It was the Andre Hopkins, the first year that those two were together. Murray was obviously in his prime, had no knee injuries at that point, was not coming off the worst year of his career.
Starting point is 00:29:44 The other problem for Justin Jefferson is, this is such a crowd of receiving corps now. I mean, you know, the addition of Joanne Jennings is not something to overlook. look, this is going to be a very good third receiver, much better than Jalen Naylor, at least based on resume. And Jordan Addison is still going to be a factor. T.J. Hawks is still going to be a factor. I think the run game will hopefully get better as well. And so does Kyler help JJ get back to that elite level status? And that's, I think, what we're all trying to figure out and hope for. So when you talk about this, I'm just having this conversation with Pete Priscoe this week, you know,
Starting point is 00:30:14 this is fantasy versus reality. He's doing his top 100 list. he's like there's no way you're putting Pooka and Akua over Justin Jefferson when you're talking about NFL talent. But clearly we do that by leaps and bounds, you know, when you talk about fantasy production. So any GM would take Justin Jefferson, maybe first overall, not second overall behind Jamar Chase in terms of best receivers in the league. So you know what the talent is. You know what he's capable of doing. And clearly he elevates his quarterback. He just did not do that last year.
Starting point is 00:30:41 And so can he get back to doing that like we saw really in that 2024 season when Kirk Cousins got hurt and everything. fell apart for the entire team, second half of the season, excuse me, two, two, twenty, three, Sam Donald was twenty-four. But he elevated Sam Donald, and we saw what that was like. And so Kyler Murray can hopefully get Justin Jefferson back on a very high level. I just think Lamb can get there a little bit easier than Jefferson, but they're basically back to back. So I think Jefferson also very similar to Lamb, uh, late round one, early round two,
Starting point is 00:31:09 depending on how you want to draft your receivers this year. Okay. And Dave, real quick, Jam, or Jefferson? Lamb, it's close. It's the same reasons as Jamie said. I think about the five-game stretch that Jefferson had with Carson Wentz last year. And he averaged 10 targets per game, had 16.3 ppr points per game. And if Kyler-Murie can be as good as Carson Wentz, which is such a silly sentence.
Starting point is 00:31:32 And Wentz wasn't healthy for the last two games. Yeah, it's true. But if he can be as good, then I think Justin Jefferson's got that same type of 15.5 to 17 ppr point per game potential that C.D. Lamb has. but I like Lamb better because I trust his offense a little bit more than what Jefferson's got in Minnesota. Yeah, I just would add that, yes, Carson Wentz had a 20-pass attempt game against Cincinnati. Did he finish the Chargers game? That was the last game he played or did he leave early?
Starting point is 00:32:04 I think he did. That was in Europe, right? Yeah. And he got so injured in that game. He also had a 46 past. He proved how tough he was, man. That was incredible. 46 pass attempts,
Starting point is 00:32:18 34 pass attempts, and 42 pass attempts. I think when you have a mobile quarterback like Murray can worry about the pass volume. All right. So those are some of the kind of high-end guys, Barclay, Lamb, Jefferson. Malik Neighbors is a big discount. I think we can leave that one alone.
Starting point is 00:32:35 Ninth overall to 35th overall. But do you think that 35th overall, Dave, is a good spot for neighbors real quick? I wouldn't take them then. Not at this point in time. Okay. I'd like to see him show up to training camp and be healthy and move around, not wearing a, you know, non-contact drill jersey and working every day, developing that chemistry with Jackson Dart again. That would make me feel better about drafting neighbors.
Starting point is 00:32:59 You know, let's do our second break here because I got one that almost doesn't make sense. And it's a discount that I think a lot of people are going to jump on when we come back on FFT. We'll be right back. I don't draft a lot of Derek Henry basically ever in full PPR leagues. but if he really falls to 22nd overall, I will have a lot of Derek Henry. And he's a discount. He's 11 picks cheaper, 12 picks cheaper than he was last year.
Starting point is 00:33:24 10th overall last year as RB5, 22nd overall this year as RB12. And he finished his RB7 in full PPR last year, which is one of the worst finishes he's had. So, yeah, another one I don't know that we need to expand on, but we all agree that 22nd overall is a good spot for Derek Henry. Yep. It's the range for him, sure. Okay. Nico Collins went from 13th overall to 23rd overall.
Starting point is 00:33:52 So if you're on the clock and you're deciding between Nico Collins and Derek Henry, maybe you can get both of them. But let's say you can't. Let's say the ninth pick in the second round. Who you take it in a full PPR league, Henry or Nico? What did you do in round one? I took a wide receiver. It's a three receiver league. I would probably go with Derek Henry then.
Starting point is 00:34:17 I'd be surprised if Nico was there. I would absolutely take Nico knowing that there's going to be a good running back, if not Derek Henry making it back to me in round three. He's there, though. Nico is there. You think he'll move up? I think he'll move up. I really haven't been in many drafts where he's there in round three.
Starting point is 00:34:31 Oh, okay. Well, yeah, I mean, he's going 23rd overall. So if he's going to be available in round three, it's going to be early. Yeah. Right. He's 22nd in our fan mocks. I guess the thing you could also do if you're saying he's 23
Starting point is 00:34:44 then it's probably well so you took Chase in round one then I guess one of those receivers you you probably assume that Gibbs or Bijan went one so maybe you go Collins in that scenario
Starting point is 00:34:58 yeah all right Brian Thomas Jr. is a huge discount 54 picks lower for Brian Thomas Jr. Good reports this off season. He's healthy. He says it doesn't hurt to run. He went from 16th overall to 70th overall.
Starting point is 00:35:18 Who's in on Brian Thomas Jr. at 70th overall? 100%. At 70th overall, I think I'd have to be in. Where's he going in CBS? He is going 82nd. Oh, I'm in there.
Starting point is 00:35:35 He's going to be such a climber. Yeah. I just worry that, that we talk about all the time, but there's just too many guys. There's just too many guys. Again, we have not gotten the reports of
Starting point is 00:35:50 Travis Hunter doing this on offense yet, and it's coming. And, you know, the minute that that happens, that's going to, I think, hopefully normalize some of the ADP and the rapid rise for both Thomas and Parker Washington
Starting point is 00:36:02 and may end up ruining Thomas and Parker Washington. I just think that when you look at the, at the four receivers, if they're all healthy and playing at their best, the one guy that's not coming off the field is Brian Thomas. Okay, uh, Bucky Irving. Well, actually,
Starting point is 00:36:21 Josh Jacobs, uh, is 24 spots lower from 16th to 40th overall. We talked about him earlier. We expect if there's no suspension or anything like that, we expect that to move back up. Lamar Jackson, he's,
Starting point is 00:36:33 he's gone from QB2 to QB2, but from 22nd overall to 51st overall. We also addressed that earlier. So then let's go to Bucky Irving, Dave. He's down 25 spots from last year. 22nd overall to 57th overall. Catches were an issue last year. He had four to six catches in each of his first four games.
Starting point is 00:36:52 And then he missed two months. And then he had 11 catches total in his last six games, five of those 11 in one week. He just wasn't playing as much. And I don't know because he wasn't healthy, but the snaps were just lower. So do you think this is a big enough discount? I mean, to see Bucky Irving,
Starting point is 00:37:08 57th overall is kind of eye-opening. But it's where I'd take him. I wouldn't want to reach for him into the round four range or round three, at least not at this point in time. And so anytime you get close to round six, late round five, and he's on the board,
Starting point is 00:37:23 I'm okay with taking the chance on him there. I don't like that the bucks kept Sean Tucker, or they actually brought Sean Tucker back. Isn't that right? They didn't give him a qualifying offer, so he was a free agent. And then they brought him back. Pretty sure that's what happened.
Starting point is 00:37:38 And then they replaced Rashad White with Kenny Gainwell. And they've already declared Gainwell their 1B running back. So he's basically going to be in the Rashad White role. If Tucker continues with the short yardage goal line role, Jamie, I believe you've referenced this a lot with Bucky Irving, that he's a trapback. And he's somebody that can get you a lot of yards and maybe some good catches, but not a lot of touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:37:59 And maybe not a ton of catches since Kenneth Gainwell could be in a role where he's going to get a lot of checkdowns from Baker Mayfield. So you got to be really careful with Bucky Irving on top of that. We know he's not quite 100%. And this buck's office could end up still being very pass heavy as they've been in the past. You think there's similarities between Bucky Irving and Brees Hall? Because Brees Hall last year did not have the third down rule. And Bucky's not, he's in on third down. But that was Rashad White, probably going to be gained well primarily. You've got Braylon Allen as a threat near the goal line. You've got Sean Tucker as a threat. But like Bucky has
Starting point is 00:38:36 bigger threats, right? I agree. He's like a worse version of, or a more threatened version of Breesall. But he's on a better offense. Yes. That's the only thing that kind of puts something in his favor. I'm not a big fan of Breeshall this year.
Starting point is 00:38:52 I'm still taking Brees Hall out of Buckey Irving. Ladd McConkey is down 10 spots from 26th overall last year to 36th overall this year. Big enough discount, Jamie? I think so. you know, again, you're looking at this offense that should be much improved with a better play caller, with better offensive line because they're healthy.
Starting point is 00:39:14 We saw it at the beginning of the season, how Justin Herbert looked. It really was more of a benefit to Quentin Johnston than it was for Ladd-McConkie, but now no Keenan Allen, which I think was a big problem for McConkey last year. So what McConkey showed us as a rookie, and I think what he can get to this year,
Starting point is 00:39:31 which I believe is another gear, like this feels like a good spot to take a chance on him. So yeah, I'm fine with it in this range. All right. Next one is Jaden Daniels. Jaden Daniels, it's not a huge discount. I mean, you look by number.
Starting point is 00:39:43 Overall, he's down 35 spots. But again, the QB ADP is different right now. We expect it to change. But he's from QB3 last year, Jaden Daniels, to QB5 this year. And, you know, he only played four healthy games. And in those four healthy games, his numbers were pretty similar to what he did the year before
Starting point is 00:40:03 with the exception of no rushing touchdowns. So I don't know. I mean, I don't love reaching for quarterbacks, but I'm really tempted to draft some Jaden Daniels because he's got as much potential as basically any quarterback in fantasy. But yeah, we saw it. And I think the one thing that sort of holds him back,
Starting point is 00:40:29 the two things holding him back. Obviously the injuries last year, so you're concerned about that. And then you look at the receiving core and how just barren it is right now. So if they do manage to acquire Brandon Ayyuk, whatever you think of Ayyuk, it is what it is. But then it's just another weapon that's on the field that hopefully will help boost the production for Jane Daniel. So, you know, look, we're asking a lot out of Chigal Conquo and Antonio Williams and whatever else is going to support him, Luke McCaffrey, whoever it may be, you know, as the extended weapons here beyond Terry McClure.
Starting point is 00:41:02 But wouldn't be surprised at all if he leads the position in rushing yards and is going to be in the mix to lead the position in rushing touchdowns. So he just has that much upside. He's the ideal cheat code as we were hoping he was going to be last year. So stay healthy. You know, get your passing numbers. However you get them, you know, which is, again, to me, the wild card and all of this. But if you tell me right now that he's playing north of 13 games, I think he's easily worth drafting as a top five quarterback. And that's the round sixish range.
Starting point is 00:41:35 That's where I have them. I think I like that they're changing offenses. We know that the Kingsbury offense typically gets stale, really like by the second year that it's around, maybe the third year. And Kingsbury's gone. It's David Blow. It's going to be a West Coast type of system.
Starting point is 00:41:51 They're going to have them under center more. They're going to have them on the run a little bit more. That doesn't necessarily mean he's going to take off and gain yards with his legs, but he'll certainly be on the move and, you know, throwing. Yeah, I'm intrigued by him. I just don't want to overpay for him because the downside of him being hurt and Marcus Mariotta coming in.
Starting point is 00:42:12 And that's the end of that. All right. That's Jayden Daniel. What's a better discount? It's hard to say, really, because we don't know what the ADPs are. I could just, I mean, I guess we could just go by what they currently are. But Jaden Daniels going from QB3 to QB5 or Jalen Hertz from QB5 to QB7. Probably Jalen Hertz.
Starting point is 00:42:37 Yeah, because you're getting them later. I mean, in... If you're getting them later. I've got it hurts a spot ahead of Daniels in my rankings. In Fantasy Pro, oh, wow. In Fantasy pros, they're only six picks apart, so... Right. They're going to go within 10 picks of each other in every single draft.
Starting point is 00:42:54 Okay. Tyreek Hill is down 203 spots. We'll see what happens. He may not be ready until mid-season. Alvin Camara. He was in Missouri, and he said something about the chiefs. Oh, did he? Playing for the chiefs.
Starting point is 00:43:12 Oh, interesting. No one would be surprised. Alvin Camara went from 37th overall to 178th overall. That's 141 spots lower for Camara. Another one. Let's just get a trade happening already. He doesn't want to be traded. He wants to stay in New Orleans.
Starting point is 00:43:29 What he wants and what the team wants is totally different. Well, if they used him as a third down, back, you know, and he went 178th overall. He actually might have value, Camara. Oh, I mean, he could be Kenneth Gamal. Right. Kittle, 38th overall last year to 123rd overall this year. That's not a bad spot for him, especially if he's going to be ready in week one, which he says he might be.
Starting point is 00:43:55 But is he going to be himself? No, but at a hundred and 23rd overall. I don't think he could be somebody else. Yeah, right. Exactly, Dave. Can't just do that. Is he going to be the Georgia? George Kittle that we know and love.
Starting point is 00:44:06 And that makes me nervous for 33-year-old dude coming back from a torn Achilles suffered in January. A little bit of news for you. Oh, I like news. Rachi Rice was released from prison. Okay. Stay out of trouble. Routen for a happy ending. Marvin Harrison Jr. went from 42nd overall.
Starting point is 00:44:29 You know what? Grow up. Okay, okay. I like when there's subtle humor. Well, it's not like he left a massage parlor. Well, I mean, which jail was he in? Marvin Harrison Jr. went from 42nd overall. Leave it subtle, Dave, to 68th overall.
Starting point is 00:44:51 That's a 26th spot drop based on 2025 ADP to current 2026 ADP for Marvin Harrison, Jr. I don't know that I even want him at 68th overall. Has anybody taking him 68th? I wouldn't want to take him there, but this is the start of the range for him. I mean, again, assuming Jacoby Bressat is the starter for the majority of the season, what they did in three healthy games gives you a good indication of hopefully what he can do this year. So it's a less tight-end friendly coordinator. It is an offense that should hopefully feature its wide receivers.
Starting point is 00:45:26 He was significantly better by leaps and bounds than Michael Wilson when the two were healthy last year. So if you're saying Michael Wilson is a problem, which he might be, I still think Marvin Harrison is going to be the better of the two receivers. I think he's going to have the best year of his career, which is saying much because he's been a disappointment. But I like that there's a value on him this year compared to where he was the first two years. It's funny that you say he was better than Michael Wilson. You're talking about first half of the season before Harrison got injured. I'm talking when they were both healthy.
Starting point is 00:45:59 And Brissette was under, was that. Yeah. Because even when he, when Harrison would come back from. the injuries. You know, he would do well. Then he would leave again with an injury or whatever. But when he was out, Michael Wilson did things that Martin Harrison Jr. hasn't done.
Starting point is 00:46:14 Michael Wilson did the things that we wanted Marvin Harrison to do when he was a rookie in the start of the second. Yeah. All right. That's Marvin Harrison Jr. We got James Connor down to 216th overall. We'll follow that. D.K. Metcalfe, big discount from 49th to 72nd overall.
Starting point is 00:46:31 Anyone in on, so that's four pick. after Marvin Harrison, Jr. Who do you like better? Harrison or Metcalf? Harrison. Easily, right? Yeah. Patrick Mahomes, from QB6 to QB13. So I looked at just some number, like, let's think about the last three seasons for Mahomes.
Starting point is 00:46:53 In 2020, three and four, he averaged right around 21 points per game and six point per passing touchdown leagues, which is, which was around QB10 per game. Then last year he was QB5 per game, I believe, because his rushing totals were insane. I think he was on pace for over 600 rushing yards. If you took just his passing numbers from last year, just passing, he averaged 18.2 fantasy points per game and 6 point per passing touchdown leagues.
Starting point is 00:47:22 How do you get that back to 21? I don't know, you probably need 250 to 300 yards and some touchdowns. And that's going to be tough coming off at Torn AC. It's tough coming off a torn ACL. It's tough coming off a situation where their receiving core is not great once you get past the top three guys. And really the top three guys are a banged-up and questionable Rashi Rice who could be suspended at any moment for anything that he does off the field. A 36-year-old Travis Kelsey and an Xavier Worthy who's banged up and has yet to really prove himself. So it's a very thin receiving core.
Starting point is 00:48:01 they spent the entire offseason rebuilding their run game. 32nd in the league last year. They get the Super Bowl MVP, who was by all accounts living up to the billing in minicamp. They draft another running back in Emmett Johnson. They signed another running back in Amari Di Mercado, who has also had a very strong mini camp, not that he's going to be a factor.
Starting point is 00:48:21 But, I mean, they're telling you what they want to do, is they want to run the ball much better. And so if they're going to run the ball better, make sense, take pressure off of Mahomes. I just think Mahomes is a guy that you want to take in this range as a borderline number one quarterback. You know, Dave referenced the guys going, you know, QB12. Like, I like Trevor Lawrence better. I like Brock Purdy better.
Starting point is 00:48:42 I think Caleb Williams is in a better spot this year. You know, you start to get past those guys, you know, is Jared Goff just safer than Patrick Mahomes? And as outplayed him in, what, three of the last four seasons as a fantasy quarterback? But not last year, right? No, not last year. But I'm saying like, you know, there's a, there's a track record here of golf in Detroit being a better fantasy quarterback than Patrick Mahomes. And that's not to say he's a better NFL quarterback, but, you know, fantasy-wise, numbers and numbers. So I think when you start to look at Mahomes, you have to draft two quarterbacks with him.
Starting point is 00:49:14 Do you want to commit yourself to that if your league does not necessarily do that in the majority of the league? You know, so you're carrying a second quarterback. There's a lot of risk involved with him. So, you know what the upside is. I just don't think he's going to run as much. I don't think he has, you know, a 5,050 season in his. his arsenal this year. He's certainly going to do it again, but it's asking a lot. You know, when you start to pile up the positives versus negatives, I think unfortunately, the negatives are
Starting point is 00:49:39 in, in favor here, which is not something you want to do. Let's finish up with rapid fire. How much do you like these discounts? Cortland Sutton, from 53rd overall to 79th overall this year. It's justified, and I like it a lot. I mean, you know, obviously David and I differ a little bit on on what Jalen Waddle is going to do. I just don't think Cortland Sutton is going away. You know, so still a guy that can be eight plus touchdowns, going to see a target decrease, but by how much, you know, and still somebody I think that Bo Nix will lean on
Starting point is 00:50:11 and certainly Sean Payton will feature. If you're in a league that starts three wide receivers and a flex, you're going to start Cortland Sutton every week. And if you're getting them late round six into round seven, if it's full PPR, I think you're going to be okay. All right. Sam Leporta went from tight end four and 53rd over. overall last year to tight end eight and 96th overall so far this year.
Starting point is 00:50:33 That's ridiculous. It's a significant riser once he gets healthy and shows up in camp and you start to get this offense is great for Sam Leporta. Sam Leporta loves this offense. You know, Steve Petzik, Drew Petsick, Mike Petsick, you know, all going to be very good for Petting. You're not even saying his last name right now. All going to be very good for Sam Leport.
Starting point is 00:50:55 Yeah, but I think. think what you said about C.D. Lamb that we're chasing that 2023 season. I think we're doing that with Leporta, too, because Jameson Williams did not do anything that year. And since Jameson Williams has become a factor on this team, Sam Leporta has basically been tight end eight. And that's what he's being drafted as. You might. Yeah, but again, this year, you're chasing the offense. You're chasing the system. You're chasing Trey McBride. No, I'm more of a personnel guy than a, than a coach guy. So when I see coach, that threw a lot to the tight end
Starting point is 00:51:28 when the tight end was clearly the best option on the team, I don't know, I don't just say that's going to translate to, to what, to, yeah, but again,
Starting point is 00:51:37 if you're, if you're buying into system and trends and, uh, petzing and, um, and, uh,
Starting point is 00:51:46 Stefanski. Well, Stephans, just to stop. I do buy it with Stefansky because he's been, you know, he's gone out of his way to make the tight ends. But those guys, I forget what he said.
Starting point is 00:51:55 I forget what he said, they're, their history is together, but it's very lengthy. Like Austin Hooper was dominating targets for the Browns, you know, those years. So when they were on the same Brown staff. So this is a very tight end friendly offense. Now, whether you buy into Leporta, to your point, Adam, you know, being the guy we saw as a rookie, a guy that can maybe just be more than a touchdown, you know, an end zone guy, as opposed to, you know, a guy that can, you know, do a little bit more between the 20s, there's just a lot to like about the situation. So this is great value.
Starting point is 00:52:27 You know, what's the list of tight ends? Because we know what the top five are, top four are. Sure. Titan five is who? Tideon five is Kraft. Okay. So, Fanon. Are you upside versus Leporta there easily?
Starting point is 00:52:41 And craft is going 86th. So the tight ends are just being pushed down quite a bit. Craft, Fanon, Pitts, Leporta. So this is the group that's going to define the position this year because I think it's easy to say the two at the top with Bowers and McBride's easy to say the next two guys because of their upside and as in their sophomore season with Loveland and Warren and then this group of guys you have Laporta coming off injury new system you have craft coming off injury lack of targets around him pits can he do it again you know
Starting point is 00:53:14 with a very tight end friendly coach which is could be unbelievable for him and then fan in who got a lot more competition for targets than we saw plus a new coach that's not as tight-end friendly. You know, so there's ways to, you know, sort of pro and con, all these guys, you know, and how you like them. I just think LaPorta, in the system that he's in, what he's showing you to me, he's tied-in-five. I think the Lions brought in petting because he wants to use big people more often.
Starting point is 00:53:43 I think that's part of the appeal. But that doesn't necessarily mean that they're going to throw to the big people more often, unless that's what you're saying. I think when you're going to use heavy tight-end personnel, at least one of those tight ends is going to get involved in the offense. Well, I, you know, you know, it's also using heavy tight end personnel because their offensive line is not as good.
Starting point is 00:54:02 But. Yeah, but their offensive line can still be pretty dang good. But here's the thing. Like who used the most heavy tight end? The Rams didn't throw to their tight ends. And we had Ryan Heath on last week. And what he was saying is when you have bigger people on the field, it actually can benefit the wide receivers.
Starting point is 00:54:18 Yes. Right. There's more opportunity for the receivers. But I think there are going to be situations or maybe examples. where the heavy tight-end teams do have a tight-end that get a lot of targets and volumes because the tight-end is a good receiving threat. And I think Leport is a good receiving threat. No, I don't think he can be the next Trey McBride.
Starting point is 00:54:37 But I totally understand. And I'm one of the people that wants to buy in to Sam Leport. As long as the price is fair, I think a round five pick is too rich. Round six or later, I don't hate it in full PPR. Xavier Worthy is down 53 spots from 55th to 108th. Yeah, I like him. Last year, last year he was boosted up because of Rice's suspension. So, and what he did, you know, his rookie season.
Starting point is 00:55:03 Right, how he finished his rookie year. Yeah, and last year we also don't know because he got hurt almost immediately in week one. And when he came back, they said, I didn't know this until it was reported a couple of months ago that he was not, Zabryworthy was not running his normal route tree because he wasn't healthy enough to do it. Yeah. He's got, he's got the same issue that Jane Daniels has. He doesn't have an NFL body. And so if he's going to continue to take him. hits, he's going to continue to have injuries.
Starting point is 00:55:27 I like him as a top 100 player. I don't like him as a top 80 player. All right. I think I'm just going to kind of pick and choose some here. I think Isaiah Bacheco down 88 picks, but 149th overall. Nothing wrong with taking a dart throw on him late. Yeah, he's a handcuff to the number one running back maybe. And what if he gets the touchdown opportunities at Montgomery?
Starting point is 00:55:52 Right. Baker Mayfield and Travis Kelsey. we talked about, T.J. Hawkinson. He's absolutely worth it too. I don't know that anyone wants T.J. Hawkinson, but he's down from tight end six to tight end 22. No. I don't think anyone wants.
Starting point is 00:56:06 They'll be on the waiver wire. Calvin Ridley, Calvin Ridley down to 200th overall, but his team- touchdowns that Tyler threw to McBride. Right. His teammate, Calvin Ridley's teammate, Tony Pollard is down 14 spots from 65th overall to 79th overall.
Starting point is 00:56:24 And yeah, we think that's a guy who maybe should go, I don't know if he should go up from 64 last year, but maybe should be closer to that from 65. Yeah, he should be. I think just the fact that the offense should be better. Hopefully Cam Ward is better. That's a big part of this. But the receiving court is definitely going to be better
Starting point is 00:56:40 with the additions that they made. The coaching should be better with dable calling plays. Pollard really closed the season strong last year. Four of his last five games, 95 yards rushing or more. So he was doing a fantastic job down the stretch. and I think the at least the minicamp reports that Singleton, you know, the rookie that they drafted in day three, hasn't exactly taken a step forward yet. So if it's still the leader in the clubhouse, which it sounds like he's going to be, even though he's another guy is 29, you know, Dave referenced it with Sequin. It could get one more year out of Tony Pollard.
Starting point is 00:57:10 And I think he could be a borderline number two running back, if not a top 20 guy. Not a sexy pick, but a solid single. I wonder about Aaron Jones. He's down 57 spots Aaron Jones last year to the. this year's ADP from 65th overall to 122nd overall. No one wants a 32-year-old back who couldn't clear 10 PPR points per game when he did play. It's a good gamble at that price, you know, especially if you go with sort of the hero or zero-rb approach and you just want to take shots at guys that are still the starter.
Starting point is 00:57:43 This could be a three-headed monster, you know, if Claiborne has a good camp and continues to, you know, turn some heads, I think Jordan Mason will get. get some more work on first and second down because he was better than Aaron Jones, at least the beginning of last year. This is just going to be an offense that's better, but now you have a mobile quarterback, you know, so we're going to lose a little bit of those opportunities that Aaron Jones probably needs from the passing game. I just think like, you know, if you know what you're getting, if you know what you're getting, then you're okay with it. So this range is fine for him. Just to understand you're probably not getting a guy that's going to be a week and weekout
Starting point is 00:58:15 starter for you. Right. Weeks eight through 15 was the sample when Jones came back from injury and Jordan Mason was healthy. And those eight games, Aaron Jones was on pace for 170 carries and 43 catches, which is not bad at 122nd overall. Travis Hunter's down 99 spots from 70th overall to 169th. Let me ask you a couple of quarterbacks here.
Starting point is 00:58:40 And they basically have the same exact drop. Bo Nix from QB8 to QB 16. Kyler Murray from QB9 to QB 17. what's a better bargain there, better discount, Dave? Bo Nix from QB 8 to 16 or Murray from QB 9 to QB 17? Murray's got the better receiving core and the better environment. They both have good environments, but I think Murray's got a little bit of a better environment to play in and put numbers up in. It's so funny for-I-Ler.
Starting point is 00:59:11 It's so funny for Bo Nix because he's been a really good fantasy quarterback the first two years of his career. You mentioned it yesterday when we were talking about Waddle, like the inconsistencies are sometimes tough. But overall, you know, for what you got from him, I mean, look, he closed his rookie campaign on just a monstrous tear. And then last year was, you know, good. He started good. Right. You know, just how you got there. And then he gets an upgraded receiver, you know, so our upgrade receiving court.
Starting point is 00:59:37 And, you know, usually these are the type of players we gravitate toward. I think you just when you start to look at the position, you know, Trevor Lawrence, just the ascension, Caleb Williams, the ascension, Jackson Dart, what he was able to accomplish. Like, you know, so you reference Baker Mayfield and where he's going, I think when you talk about even both these guys, because we've seen Kyler Murray, you know, you say it all the time, Adam, you know, was top five or pacing to be a top five quarterback almost every year of his career prior to last year. Both these guys can be difference makers that you're getting with just late round picks. So to go back to what I said about Patrick Mahomes, when you're going to draft Mahomes, you got to commit to a second quarterback. These are two of the perfect guys to pair them with. Yes. Just push back just a little bit on the Kyler-Berry thing.
Starting point is 01:00:16 It was not top five. So top 12 per game in five straight seasons before last year. And that was with leaving a game with less than 50% of the snaps in two of those four seasons. And he's been top seven per game in two of his last five seasons. But yes, Kyler Murray, other than last year, always really good. Bo Nix, and I will say always very good for fantasy, even when it didn't feel like he was playing great in the NFL. Bo Nix in two seasons in the NFL has been QB 8 and 11 per game in 4-point leagues, 9 and 13 per game in 6-point per passing touchdown leagues,
Starting point is 01:00:55 and now he's going as QB 16, his ADP fell. And I understand why, but these are good fallback options, or not even fallback options late in your draft if you decide to go that route. I wonder if his ADP will climb a little bit now that he's getting healthy and shows up for training camp. Maybe, but it is just going to be hard for him to jump some of the guys ahead of him. All right. Well, that's it. Good job.
Starting point is 01:01:22 Save some money. Discounts. We have FFT Express coming up. We have another episode tomorrow. We're the mailbag on Thursday. And we look forward to hanging out with you all week. All right. For Dave and Jamie, I'm Adam.
Starting point is 01:01:35 Talk to tomorrow. I'm going to football. Podcasts. Do you think it's possible to discern some hidden pattern shared by all serial killers? With a new killer each week. I see those wheels turning. When a copycat killer emerges, the BAU will form a dark alliance with a familiar foe. Elias, would you help us?
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