Fantasy Football Today - Divisional Round Recap, Crazy 2020 Stat, New Coaches! (01/18 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: January 18, 2021

Before we get into the coaching hires and divisional round recap, we talk through a crazy CeeDee Lamb stat (0:38) … News and notes (3:35) as Patrick Mahomes suffered a concussion, Antonio Brown has ...a knee injury and new head coaches were hired over the past few days. What is the Fantasy Football impact of Urban Meyer in Jacksonville, Robert Saleh in New York and Arthur Smith in Atlanta? … Divisional round recap (12:37) with 2021 predictions for the eliminated teams. Is Cam Akers a second rounder next season? Are we buying the J.K. Dobbins late-season emergence (24:47)? … Your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com (50:25). 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @CTowersCBS, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Want winning picks each morning in under 10 minutes? Subscribe to 'The Early Edge: A Daily SportsLine Betting Podcast' on Apple, Spotify, Stitcher or wherever else you listen to podcasts. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone and celebrate every highlight reel play. And as an official sportsbook partner of the NFL, BetMGM is the best place to fuel your football fandom on every game day. With a variety of exciting features, BetMGM offers you plenty of seamless ways to jump straight onto the gridiron and to embrace peak sports action. Ready for another season of gridiron glory? What are you waiting for?
Starting point is 00:00:38 Get off the bench, into the huddle, and head for the end zone all season long. Visit BetMGM.com for terms and conditions. Must be 19 years of age or older. Ontario only. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem? For free assistance, call the Connex Ontario helpline at 1-866-531-2600.
Starting point is 00:00:59 BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.
Starting point is 00:01:16 Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. The AFC and NFC Championship games are set, and holy bleep, do they have a chance to be amazing. I'm Jamie Eisenberg, that's Dave Richard, that's Chris Towers. Welcome to the Fantasy Football Today podcast. Today we're recapping the divisional round games
Starting point is 00:01:37 and breaking down the new coaching hires. But first, let me give you a stat of the day. According to Pro Football Focus, C.D. Lamb gained 877 receiving yards while lined up in the slot. That's the most for a rookie wide receiver in the last 15 years. We're going to spend some time this week talking about running backs and wide receivers looking ahead to 2021. So our buddy Ben Schrager came up with this one. So Dave, I'll start with you. Is C.D. Lamb your favorite Cowboys wide receiver in 2021? Favorite as in best value or favorite as in guy I'll take first.
Starting point is 00:02:05 Guy you'll take first. Yeah. I think I'm still going to take Cooper ahead of CD Lamb, but Lamb is going to be my favorite value for sure. Well, what if they go one round apart, Chris, would you rather have Amari Cooper or would you rather have CD Lamb? Because I think they're going to be pretty close based on what the expectations are for CD Lamb and obviously what the pedigree has been in the track record has been for Amari Cooper. Yeah, I would rather have Amari Cooper, and I would imagine that there's going to be a lot of excitement around CeeDee Lamb that's going to potentially push him up even further than where he's been in the early mock drafts we've done.
Starting point is 00:02:38 And so I think there's a decent chance I'll have more of Amari Cooper than CeeDee Lamb. All right, so we'll see where they go in our latest PPR mock draft and our half PPR mock draft. Lamb went in the fifth round in the PPR mock draft, the sixth round in the half PPR mock draft. You can see the results of those full drafts on CBSSports.com. So we'll spend some time breaking down the Cowboys wide receivers,
Starting point is 00:03:01 other sophomore wide receivers this week as well. But C.D. Lamb certainly is somebody that I think a lot of fantasy managers will be excited about. Dave, who wins the AFC championship game? Assuming Mahomes is healthy. Assuming Mahomes is healthy. I am not sure I'm going to stick with saying Buffalo, but on Monday morning without really looking at anything, I'm going to say Buffalo. Chris, who wins the NFC championship game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Aaron Rogers and the Green Bay Packers? I think the Packers are the better overall team, so I'll go with them.
Starting point is 00:03:32 All right. So it should be fun to see how those two teams, those two games break down. We'll spend a lot of time talking about them throughout the course of the week a little bit today, but we're going to focus obviously on some of the teams that were eliminated as we help you look ahead to your 2021 fantasy drafts and FFT listeners. We reached that point of the year where there's a lot of sports going on all at once. The NFL still in full swing, college basketball, hockey, remember hockey, it's happening as well. Don't forget about the NBA and golf as well, which is why we wanted to tell you about the CBS sports app and how it's not just the best
Starting point is 00:04:00 scoring app for your phone, but it's also where you get breaking news alerts, stories by us, standing schedules, team pages, and all the sports digital stuff you're used to. Of course, if a game is airing on CBS, that means it's streaming on the CBS Sports app. It's pretty easy, right? Just download it, re-download it if it got that little cloud logo next to it on your phone. And you know we love those five-star ratings, so don't hesitate to drop one for the app. If you do, tweet us a screenshot along with a mailbag question for us to use on an upcoming episode. We appreciate it, y'all UFFD listeners,
Starting point is 00:04:30 and let's get back to what we're here to talk about, which is the breakdown of the games and the news and notes from this weekend. So Patrick Mahomes suffered a concussion, left the game in the third quarter. The Chiefs were able to still win with Chad Henney. I'm sure all of you watched the game. Henney with the big scramble on the third down run and then the pass to Tyreek Hill on the fourth down play. Let Henney cook.
Starting point is 00:04:52 At the end, some clutch performances there from Chad Henney beating an Ohio team with what seems like maybe the first time in his career. Certainly his first playoff performance for the former Michigan star. So, Chris, if there is no Patrick Mahomes, for those of us that are playing DFS, for those of us in playoff challenges, how concerned would you be about Tyree kill and Travis Kelsey?
Starting point is 00:05:11 It's definitely a downgrade, but we've actually seen, you know, I think Henny started a couple of games on the last season, a couple of seasons, and he's done okay. You know, when Mahomes was out with injuries last season, I think Henny was actually pretty good. Oh, Matt Moore. Oh, Matt Moore, sorry. But I don't think there's – I think that kind of explains it. I don't think there's a big difference between Matt Moore and Chad Henney. We're talking about backups. The system's really strong.
Starting point is 00:05:36 The skill players are really strong. I think he would be fine. I think the offense would mostly keep humming. Obviously, it's a huge downgrade. He's not nearly as good as Patrick Mahomes, but they'll still make an effort to get those guys to ball. Andy Reid is, I think, the best offensive coach in football. Those guys will all still be worth starting, even if maybe they're not quite as sure a thing as they normally would be. I thought Phil Sims,
Starting point is 00:06:03 the CBS studio analyst, brought up a good point in the post game that him playing Henny playing in week 17 probably helped a little bit, you know, just to get his familiarity with the offense after having not played basically for over two years getting used to what, you know, the guys on the field are doing and just having that, you know, play under his belt probably helped as well. Just recently playing for the chief. So it was interesting to hear his, his take on that as a former quarterback.
Starting point is 00:06:27 Antonio Brown has a knee injury. Dave, if there is no Antonio Brown, clearly Chris Cobb and Mike Evans, those guys are going to be in a lot of lineups, depending on what formats we're talking about, playoff challenge or DFS. But any interest in Tyler Johnson or Scott Miller, if in fact Antonio Brown is out in the NFC Championship? I could see Miller picking up a few more targets. We've seen him.
Starting point is 00:06:44 We saw it as recently as Sunday as a downfield threat for Tom Brady. He wasn't used nearly as much as he was earlier in the season. He would be a good dart throw. I wouldn't be as interested in Johnson, but there would be some. I don't know. If you're sending a lot of lineups in a tournament, then he would be someone who's interesting. I think Gronk would probably.
Starting point is 00:07:02 I can't say he's going to come back into Brady's focus. He had five targets. But I think he could end up being a good contributing piece more than what we've seen over the past couple of weeks. If there's no way to – Donnelly has his first playoff catch. Yeah, Gronk had his first playoff catch. Cameron Bray has been a big player in the offense the last couple of weeks.
Starting point is 00:07:19 So Bray is somebody I think you should have some interest in as well. And Scotty Miller had two targets, one big play down the field. Tyler Johnson had the one target. Both those guys are going to be interesting for 2021, because if Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown leave and Brady is still there, Johnson and Miller could be the two and the three in this offense. And they would be very exciting as late round fantasy options, depending on how this offense looks,
Starting point is 00:07:40 that they don't add anybody else to this receiving core. And the same thing may be with Cameron Bray, with the way that Tom Brady is leaning on him right now, if in fact Gronk does not come back in 2021, but they still have one more game to play. So we'll see how that goes for them. Drew Brees is expected to retire, according to Jay Glazer. If you watch the end of the game, it seemed as if that's kind of the moments he was taking on the field. His wife came on the field. There was some photos of them sharing a moment in the Superdome. His kids came out on the field. Tom Brady was actually throwing him passes. There were some pictures of that as well.
Starting point is 00:08:09 So it seems as if Breeze is headed to retirement. We have a long offseason to figure out what they're going to do with their quarterback position. But Taysom Hill, Jameis Winston, at least are going to get the chance to compete for the job if Jameis decides to come back. He is an unrestricted free agent. And as we saw in the four games for Taysom Hill, three of those, 22 or more fantasy points. So we spent some time talking about this. He has a chance to be a top 12 fantasy quarterback going into the season if Taysom Hill is the starter for the Saints. Some coaching hires over the last several days.
Starting point is 00:08:38 The Jags hired Urban Meyer. So I'm going to give you the list of the hires. The Jags hired Urban Meyer. The Jets hired Robert Sala, the Falcons hired Arthur Smith. And then late last night, the Chargers hired Brandon Staley. It seems as if the Lions are going to hire Dan Campbell, who's the assistant coach for the Saints, former interim head coach for the Miami Dolphins. That's one that's still pending at this point. But in terms of Urban Meyer, Robert Sala and Arthur Smith, Chris addressed this on the Fantasy Football Today in 5.
Starting point is 00:09:05 His favorite hire for fantasy purposes. Dave, who's your favorite hire for fantasy purposes? Knowing that Sala, obviously a defensive coordinator, bringing in Mike LaFleur with him as his offensive coordinator. He was an assistant coach with the 49ers brother, Matt LaFleur, the Packers head coach. We don't know who the Falcons play caller is going to be yet, and we don't know who the Jags play caller is going to be yet as well.
Starting point is 00:09:24 Same thing with the Chargers. I'd be son of the Falcons play caller is going to be yet, and we don't know who the Jags play caller is going to be yet as well. Same thing with the Chargers. I'd be stunned if the Falcons play caller isn't Arthur Smith. It's taken me a few years, but I've done the full 180 on Arthur Smith. He's been remarkable with Tennessee, completely brought Ryan Tannehill's career back to life. I put it on him. He did a great job there, and now he's got a better passing game to work with in Atlanta.
Starting point is 00:09:45 It's almost the inside out of what he had in Tennessee. In Tennessee, great run game, and he had a good passing game, but not this depth of receiver that he's going to have in Atlanta. So that offense should be a ton of fun with Smith's influence there. I would buy in. I would think the Falcons offense will be very, very clever. All right, Chris. So since we spoke last night, there was an additional coaching change with the hiring of Brandon Staley. So does anything change for you in terms of the biggest impact?
Starting point is 00:10:10 Is it still Urban Meyer for you? Yeah, I think it's still Urban Meyer. And look, I think there's a lot to like about Arthur Smith being the coach of the Falcons. The only thing for me, I guess, is that we just haven't seen him with this kind of offense. You know, we know what he's done with the Tennessee Titans has been really impressive.
Starting point is 00:10:28 You know, Dave was skeptical. I think everyone was kind of skeptical of that one because he didn't have a ton of experience. The only thing is, it's just a very different type of offense. We haven't seen him in, you know, what we think will continue to be a pass first high tempo Falcons offense. And so, you know, Urban Meyer's history has been, you know, basically historically great offenses everywhere he's been. You know, his offenses have set records pretty much every place he's been a head coach. So I would expect that that Jacksonville offense with Trevor Lawrence, presumably being the starting quarterback, is going to take a big step forward.
Starting point is 00:11:05 And I think that'll definitely be something to get excited about. And again, with two defensive coaches, at least based on what their most recent jobs were, the offensive coordinators are going to be important. Again, we know that the Jets are expected to make Michael LaFleur their offensive coordinator. We don't know what exactly the Chargers are going to do.vin o'connell might come with brandon staley from the ram so that could be someone to keep an eye on uh urban meyer there you've heard scott linehan's
Starting point is 00:11:32 name being mentioned you know that would be interesting to see based on those two guys they have a relationship but uh scott lindhan's offenses have been good at times great at others in the nfl so um in terms of arthur smith Robert Sala, based on the places that they're coming from, the run games could be very important. So the running backs there, as we know, the Falcons have a big hole to fill. Todd Gurley's a free agent. Zito Smith going to get the opportunity to win the job. I would imagine that's going to be a position of need for them, especially with Arthur Smith's offense translates from one to the other, along with what the guy said, clearly the increase in what the passing game could be. But the Jets one's certainly interesting because of
Starting point is 00:12:08 the influence of the 49ers of Kyle Shanahan. That's a position that could be really fun for fantasy as another team that's going to potentially overhaul everything that they do. So we're going to spend a lot of time talking about these head coaches and the offense coordinators and the offense that they bring when things get finalized. But that's the news right now. And then in terms of the Steelers, they fired Randy Fickner. They promoted quarterback coach Matt Canada. Canada? How do you pronounce it, Dave? Canada?
Starting point is 00:12:31 I'm not sure. It's spelled Canada. Right. It's more fun if we call him Matt Canada. Yeah, I would just go with the only version of that word I've ever heard. Since he's office coordinator, we just say they promoted O'Canada to their offensive coordinator job. So we'll see how that goes.
Starting point is 00:12:50 You know what they're going to do. A lot of talk about Ben Roethlisberger maybe not coming back. So we'll see. I know he said he's going to play, but do the Steelers decide to maybe part ways? That's something to keep an eye on this offseason. Most likely Ben Roethlisberger will be the quarterback of the Steelers in 2021. All right, we're going to take a quick break here on FFT. When we come back and get into the game recaps,
Starting point is 00:13:06 talk about some of the teams that were eliminated, looking ahead to their fantasy focus for 2021. Stay right here to FFT. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows.
Starting point is 00:13:26 Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations. Or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada. Insurance designed for life. Did you know that across Ontario, utility damage happens 19 times a day? That's over 4,222 incidents a year. Don't let your next dig be one that causes costly delays or safety risks. Before you break ground, make it a point to request a locate. It's not just
Starting point is 00:14:00 the law. It's a step to keep your team and community safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca and avoid unnecessary damages to get the job done right. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. So let's get into the games from this weekend. The divisional round is over. A couple of big stories. Obviously, Drew Brees, did he play his last game for the Saints? Patrick Mahomes, is he going to be healthy for the AFC Championship game? He was knocked out with a concussion. Lamar Jackson also did not finish the game for the Ravens as he left with a concussion. So let's start with the games that happened on Saturday. He had the Packers beating the Rams 32-18. Aaron Rodgers was just amazing
Starting point is 00:14:36 against a fantastic defense. He goes for 296-2, also ran for a touchdown, so three total scores. Aaron Jones, 14 for 99 and a touchdown, one catch 14 yards on two targets. Jamal Williams was the second running back. He ran well as well. 12 carries for 65 yards. Alan Lazard, four catches, 96 yards and a touchdown for him. And Devante Adams, Jalen Ramsey, who nine catches, 66 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. Robert Tunyon also chipped in four catches, 60 yards on four targets. We're going to, again, the focus is going to be mostly on the teams that were eliminated, but just a quick note, Dave, looking ahead to the NFC championship game, which Packers player do you like the best? I'm I'm, I'm excited about Aaron Rogers. Obviously you've got to imagine that he's
Starting point is 00:15:18 just going to keep playing hot and the Tampa Bay pass defense isn't as good as their run defense, despite how well Drew Brees made them look on Sunday. I think Rodgers is just going to keep throwing the ball as well as he has all season. He's been playing in the pocket and just making dimes all over the field. Making dimes, dishing out dimes. Yeah, his worst game of the season, though. Worst game of the season came against Tampa Bay.
Starting point is 00:15:40 It was in Tampa Bay, and that defense was close to full strength. At that point, they looked pretty good last night, getting Devin Smith back, and excuse me, Devin White back, and just looking how great they played against Drew Brees. So we'll see how Rodgers does, but should be a very fun game against a very good defense for Tampa Bay. But yes, I'm with you. I think Aaron Rodgers has a chance for another strong game. All right, for the Rams, it was not the finish they were hoping for. Daragov playing through the thumb injury, threw for 174 and won. I didn't think he looked bad, but obviously not the stats there to back it up. Akers was a star. Once again, we'll talk about him in a second. Josh Reynolds led the receiving core in terms
Starting point is 00:16:12 of yards, three for 65. Robert Woods, eight for 48 on 10 targets. And Van Jefferson had six catches, 46 yards and a touchdown on seven targets as Cooper Cup did not play because of the bursitis in his knee. So Chris, when we look at Cam Akers, his finish to the season was impressive. Daryl Henderson obviously missed time with the ankle injury, but five of his last six games, 19 or more total touches. He was awesome in the Seahawks game. He was great against the Packers with the 96 total yards and the touchdown 18 carries for 90 yards in the score.
Starting point is 00:16:42 Has he now moved into the second round for you based on what we've seen, knowing what this offense is trending after, especially Sean McVay saying after the game on Saturday and then basically doubling down on Sunday, he doesn't seem fully committed to Jared Goff. He was asked is Goff your quarterback for next year. And he said, as of right now, and then he kind of said, well, going through the evaluation process for everybody. So this feels like it's going to be a very run heavy team for the Rams,
Starting point is 00:17:09 regardless of who the quarterback is next year. Yeah. I would imagine they're still going to. Yeah. I think the biggest thing is since week 13, he's averaged 22 carries per game. He's been, you know, clearly the number one bag playing between% and 70% of the snaps every week. And he's been pretty good. The problem is he only has 11 targets in that snap. You're talking about six games, including the playoffs.
Starting point is 00:17:35 He only had three in the two playoff games when he had 46 carries between them. So when I'm looking at projecting him relative to the other running backs in the league, I have him for 250 carries next season, which is, you know, a pretty healthy amount, but only 40 targets. And so, you know, he comes out to RB 25 for me. And now, you know, there are some guys in front of him, you know, Miles Gaskin, Chris Carson, James Connor, whose situations in the offseason could change,
Starting point is 00:18:07 and I could move Cam Akers up. But, you know, that still would place him squarely in, you know, late round three territory for me. Dave, what about you? When are you taking Cam Akers right now? I think late round two is probably going to be the time where I start thinking about him. He's looked great.
Starting point is 00:18:23 And we'll see what the Rams decide to do at the position. I know coming into this year, they were mixing and matching, and it was a pain in the butt for everybody. But they gave Cam Akers the type of workload that we're looking for, and he did not struggle with it, save for, I think, the first game back from the injury that he had. I think it was week 17. He didn't have a very good game, but he ran well in the playoffs, ran well before the injury that he had. I think it was week 17. He didn't have a very good game, but he ran well in the playoffs,
Starting point is 00:18:45 ran well before the injury. Maybe the injury thing is something that you'll keep in the back of your mind with him, but I think he's got a legitimate chance to be the Rams every down back and knowing how much the Rams want to run the football. That's a really good thing. Dave, we did not see Cooper Cup in the game.
Starting point is 00:19:01 Again, he missed it with the knee bursitis. He struggled down the stretch. I believe he only had one touchdown in his last seven or eight games. Dave, we did not see Cooper Cup in the game. Again, he missed with the knee bursitis. He struggled down the stretch. I believe he only had one touchdown in his last seven or eight games. And Robert Woods was great. They're both going to be back next year, but we just don't know what this passing offense is going to look like. How much more will they use Van Jefferson? Will we get Tyler Higbee of 2019 or Tyler Higbee of 2020?
Starting point is 00:19:19 Who's the best Rams wide receiver going into 2021? Robert Woods. He's the one that gets the targets, most of the targets, the majority. And I like the way that they use him as a ball carrier as well as a pass catcher. Look, terrible rushing average or receiving average against the Packers, but can't deny the targets, can't deny the catches. He's going to get a lot of them. Curious to see what they do to try and get Van Jefferson involved in his second year. As the third receiver in that offense,
Starting point is 00:19:50 he could take numbers away from both Cup and Woods. He impressed. Not a lot of playing time this year. He usually needed somebody to be hurt in order to get on the field, but when he did play, I thought he looked pretty good. He's going to be a fun late round pick to consider and drafts this coming summer. Chris, you share the same sentiment, Robert Woods over Cooper cup. Yeah, I have them separated by two spots in my ranking. So I think it'll continue to be a one a one B thing. I think cub actually had slightly a higher target per game average,
Starting point is 00:20:20 but you know, with the 24 carries Robert Woods had, he was, you know, had more touches for the season and per game. So I give Woods a slight edge, but they're both like right around a thousand fifty yards in my projections. Cooper Cup average 13.9 PPR points per game in 2020. Robert Woods 15.3. So Woods was better in 2020. Probably will be better once again in 2021. Let's move on now to the Bills and the Ravens. Bills winning that game 17-3.
Starting point is 00:20:49 Lamar Jackson, again, suffering the concussion in the game. Who knows how things would have finished for them. Just an unfortunate situation for the Ravens as they moved the ball, but they couldn't score. Missed field goals for Justin Tucker. The win clearly was a factor for him. But the score is what it is as the Bills advance to the AFC title game. Josh Allen goes for 206 and one, three rushing yards on top of that.
Starting point is 00:21:10 Not the best performance for him, but still getting the win. Devin Singletary seemed like he didn't carry the ball all in the first half. One carry. Five yards, three catches for 12 yards on three targets. Stephon Diggs was a monster. Once again, eight catches, 106 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets. Stephon Diggs was a monster. Once again, eight catches, 106 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets. And John Brown bouncing back after his catchless game in the wildcard round goes eight for 62 on 11 targets. Meanwhile, Cole Beasley, no catches on two targets. Chris, I'll ask you this one, the favorite player for you for the bills, maybe a little off the radar, not necessarily
Starting point is 00:21:40 Josh Allen or, or Stephon Diggs. Who's the next guy you'll be looking at if you're playing DFS in the championship round? Yeah, I think based on what we saw Sunday, it's got to be John Brown ahead of Cole Beasley. Cole Beasley had, I think, two targets and no catches in this one. And, you know, it makes for an interesting situation to look at for, you know, the 2021 season as well, because all three of those big receivers are under contract. I really like Gabriel Davis as well if he gets an opportunity.
Starting point is 00:22:14 I'm not sure what the cap ramifications would be if they moved on from Beasley or Brown, but they don't have to, although they are spending quite a bit more than the NFL average on their receiving core. They don't have to.
Starting point is 00:22:26 They could save $8 million on the cap if they move on from John Brown. I don't know if they want to do that, much less have to do that, but it's an option. Yep, we'll see. We'll see what this offseason brings for them, but I'm sure if they win a Super Bowl, they're going to try and bring it back. I'm sure Josh Allen loves having his complement of weapons around him. For Lamar Jackson, again, he finished 162-1 in the game from a throwing perspective.
Starting point is 00:22:50 Nine carries, 34 yards. Again, left the game with a concussion. J.K. Dobbins was the leading running back. Both he and Gus Edwards had 10 carries for 42 yards, but Dobbins had three catches for 51 yards on five targets. Marquise Brown, four catches, 87 yards on seven targets, and Mark Andrews, four catches for 28 yards on five targets. Marquise Brown, four catches, 87 yards on seven targets. And Mark Andrews, four catches for 28 yards on 11 targets. So we'll spend some time talking about Baltimore here
Starting point is 00:23:10 because Lamar Jackson last year was basically a tale of two halves. His first 10 games were pretty disappointing from a fantasy perspective. He averaged in his first 10 games 20 points. Let's see if I have it right. 20.1 fantasy points per game in his first 10 games, 20 points. Let's see if I have it right. 20.1 fantasy points per game in his first 10. His final five games, however, he was at 30.6 points per game. So he closed the season as a monster, finishing with an average of 25.2 points per game. Down from his 2019 season when he was the NFL MVP, which was at 32.5 fantasy points per game,
Starting point is 00:23:43 we spent a lot of time in the off season last year, talking about one of the best performances ever for a quarterback in fantasy. So Dave, which Lamar Jackson are we getting in 2021? Are we getting the guy who closed the season? Like we saw, are we getting the guy that may be tinkering with some things in the first half of the season where he wasn't running as much, wasn't as productive, which Lamar Jackson do you expect next year?
Starting point is 00:24:05 I expect that we get the Jackson from the second half of the season. I think the coaching staff, which by the way, should remain intact in Baltimore. I don't think they're going to move on from Greg Roman. And I don't think Greg Roman is going to get a job after he was a hot candidate a year ago this time. I think that having that brain trust there, they've realized what Lamar Jackson is, what his strengths are, what his weaknesses are. They're going to cater to those strengths. There's no question about it. And so he's still going to be a good contributor as a passer. This is so weird to say about a quarterback,
Starting point is 00:24:34 but it's the rushing that they're going to rely on. I think they should. Their offensive line had some injuries this year and they were still doing a great job running the football in terms of efficiency and effectiveness. I think that you're going to see lamar jackson continue to have that role and i wouldn't be surprised jamie if the ravens add another receiver i don't know if it'll be in the draft it might be in free agency but someone else to stretch defenses then and just put them in an absolute bind when it comes to defending the run against the ras. I think you're going to see Antonio Brown's name mentioned just because of what the last offseason was where those guys were throwing a lot together and the Marquise Brown connection, Marquise Brown and Antonio Brown are cousins. I would like to see them be aggressive and go
Starting point is 00:25:16 get an Allen Robinson. I don't think that would be great for Robinson's fantasy value, but it would certainly help Lamar Jackson. And as we saw with Stefan Diggs going to Buffalo, that made Josh Allen a much better player. Maybe the same thing happens for Lamar Jackson as a passer as well to get an established veteran player in his prime, as opposed to, let's say a Des Bryant who is coming at the end of his career that didn't contribute very much. Could I give you two more names? Sure. Well, Galladay is a free agent. I would imagine the Lions are going to franchise him, but if they don't, that would be interesting to have him be that offense. And what about T.Y. Hilton, who did finish 2020 strong?
Starting point is 00:25:50 Yeah, but I don't know if a 33-year-old guy at this point is the answer. He'll help. He'll absolutely help. But I don't know if he's the answer. I want to see somebody that's like, Galladay's perfect. Robinson is perfect. Antonio Brown's not perfect, but again, just you know the tie-in is is there so I think that's something that you can see them doing he's probably going to be cheap by comparison to certainly Robinson and Gallaudet all right Chris I'm going off script here uh uh Schrager
Starting point is 00:26:14 wants us to talk about Marquise Brown but we got to talk J.K. Dobbins because I know you're not very uh uh fond of you're fond of him but you're not uh as as probably excited as him as as maybe a lot of other people are so tell us what your concerns are for J.K. Dobbins, who had the 10 carries, 42 yards, was involved in the passing game for what seems like the first time forever, three catches for 51 yards. So tell us about your concerns with Dobbins next year. Yeah, it comes down a lot to the fact that he hasn't been used much
Starting point is 00:26:41 in the passing game. And really, the Ravens haven't used their running backs much in the passing game at all. I think in the last two regular seasons combined, 2019 and 2020, there have been 101 targets total to running backs for the Ravens. That's it's a really low target share on an offense that doesn't throw the ball much. So I think that's an issue. And that'll happen when you're playing with a scrambling quarterback. Lamar Jackson just doesn't dump it off to his running backs very often.
Starting point is 00:27:07 The bigger concern for me, and it's going to depend on what the Ravens decided to do in free agency, but you know, Edwards or JK Dobbins has basically been one a in the running game among the running backs. Obviously, you know, it's more like one B and Lamar Jackson's 1A more often than not, but for a
Starting point is 00:27:28 guy who's been as productive as Dobbins has been, who's looked as good as he has been, who's had the nose for the end zone that he's had, he's had, I think, about 12 or 13 more carries than Gus Edwards over the last five weeks. It's basically been Edwards gets nine carries, Dobbins gets 10. This week, it's basically been, you know, Edwards gets nine carries Dobbins gets 10 this week. It was 10 for both of them. And it was a trend that we saw continue in the playoffs. And you would think, you know, when the games matter more,
Starting point is 00:27:54 if they think JK Dobbins is this massive upgrade that I think a lot of us do, they would use him more. And that just hasn't been the case. And, you know, really, I think there have only been four instances over the last two seasons where a Ravens running back has more than 15 carries in a game. Dobbins was excellent in fantasy down the stretch, but, you know, it required him getting into the end zone every single game. And we saw in this week, you know, he didn't get into the end zone, only 42 yards on those 10 carries the 51 yards in the passing game on three catches. That's really nice, but that's not going to be part of his game.
Starting point is 00:28:28 And so, you know, he really does need to either, you know, average 13 to 15 carries per game or score a lot of touchdowns to be, you know, an impact fantasy player. And I think the more likely outcome is he's more like a number two RB. And for me, more like a low end number two. So where is he? You said Akers is 25. Where does he compare to Akers? Yeah, I have Dobbins 22nd. And, you know, I think looking in looking ahead to 2021, I think there's a drop off after Akers. And so, you know, those 25 running backs are kind of the, the only guys that I look at and say, well, they're young,
Starting point is 00:29:08 they have three down potential. And so, you know, I'm looking at all 25 of those guys in the first three rounds and then kind of ignoring running back for a while. Gotcha. So, but for right now, for you, Dobbins ahead of acres. Yes. Going into your early projections. All right, Dave, just quick counter. What do you think about what Chris said? Or do you agree with what he said about Dobbins ahead of acres going into your early projections. All right, Dave, just quick counter. What do you think about what Chris said?
Starting point is 00:29:25 Or do you agree with what he said about Dobbins? I like acres over Dobbins. And I think Dobbins will have the chance to do what we think acres is going to do. And that is be a lead back for the Ravens. But the floor is what Chris said. He's the one a, what has he shown his coaches in the last five, six games that he's played? That's going to put him head and shoulders over Gus Edwards. Remember Gus has played pretty well too.
Starting point is 00:29:50 So the Ravens probably feel real good about where they're at with their run game. I talked about their offensive line already, how it was good at toward the end of this year. Maybe the center shouldn't be included because he can't snap the ball the right way, but everybody else on that offensive line did a pretty good job. And they're going to get guys back. They're going to add pieces to it. I think there's upside for J.K. Dobbins
Starting point is 00:30:09 to be really, really good. I like the touchdowns that he's had, but Chris is right. He's going to share until further notice and he's not going to have a lot of catches. The one wrinkle worth adding is Gus Edwards and Mark Ingram, I believe, are free agents.
Starting point is 00:30:25 Gus Edwards definitely. No, Mark Ingram is under contract. They're going to most likely release him. They save $5 million if they cut him. Gus Edwards is a restricted free agent, and they have to match an offer if he gets one. So most likely, it's very hard for, I think, a running back in today's day and age to get a restricted free agent offer that he's going to like to leave the situation that he's at that the team's not going to match. So it'd be surprising if he left. I'd'd certainly love it for JK Dobbins. If that
Starting point is 00:30:47 happened, I just want to give you a quick counter to this with Dobbins. So the last two years with Lamar Jackson, there's been 23 times where Ravens running back has at least 13 carries. The average for those games for that particular running back is 14.7 PPR points. In 2020, 14.7 PPR points would have been the 15th running back in PPR. So if he just gets to that number, which is basically 13 carries, I think is realistic for him. I don't think it's going to be much more than that. I don't think it's going to be dramatically less than that. And as we noted, 10 carries in a game where they were down two touchdowns, where their quarterback was lost. I think if they're playing with the lead, which as we've seen more times than not,
Starting point is 00:31:26 they're a winning football team, he's probably going to be in that 13-carry range. So basically 14.7 points puts him around RB15 in PPR, a little bit better in non-PPR. And in his final five games, he averaged 16.2 PPR points per game. Now, again, that was touchdown dependent. He scored seven touchdowns to close the season, including the playoffs. But in three of those games, he had at least 13 carries. So that's kind of the number you're looking at there for him. And I don't think you're going to see Dobbins drafted in the first two rounds.
Starting point is 00:31:51 I think we're going to see round three is kind of the spot where he settles. Maybe late round two. I think Davey did that in the half PPR league. Non-PPR, it's probably a little bit better as well. But I do think that a full offseason, what they do, they don't throw to their running back so much, but we know running quarterbacks open up so many running lanes for those guys. And so he's going to be one of these interesting players. I've said this before.
Starting point is 00:32:13 He's not Derrick Henry or Nick Chubb, but he's similar. If he got the same workload as those guys, he'd be outstanding. Being that caliber of player. But based on the workload, that's what puts him basically two rounds behind those guys. So J.K. Dobbins is going to be interesting to see what they do in terms of their backfield going into next season. All right, let's move on now.
Starting point is 00:32:32 Chiefs 22, Browns 17. Great season for Cleveland. We'll talk about them in a second. Mahomes, again, left the game with a concussion. We spent some time talking about that. Go back to the top of the show if you want to hear about our thoughts on Chad Henney and the chiefs options in the AFC championship game,
Starting point is 00:32:47 for those of you playing in DFS or playoff challenge leagues, if in fact, Henney will still help those guys in terms of Tyree kill and Travis Kelsey, Daryl Williams. I thought he had a chance to be the best chiefs running back going into the week. He finished as the best chiefs running back Le'Veon Bell is an afterthought at this point without Clyde Edwards orHiller playing with that ankle injury.
Starting point is 00:33:05 Darrell Williams goes 13 carries, 78 yards on the ground, four catches, 16 yards on four targets. Great to see him performing at that level. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelsey both go over 100 yards. Kelsey scoring a touchdown on his 11 targets. Tyreek Hill had 10 targets in the game. And Mikko Hardman filling in for Sammy Watkins goes four catches, 58 yards on four targets. So there's the chiefs again, same question.
Starting point is 00:33:29 So just to kind of tie this back in Dave, if Daryl Williams starts again or no Clyde Edwards, a layer, how much interest do you have in him taking on that Buffalo defense, which was pretty good against that Ravens ground attack though last week, they were pretty good against them, but any running back that's going to get 60 plus percent of the snaps, he might've had way more than that. I don't know what the playtime percentage was for him, but he played a lot. He did good. And I would imagine that he would be a very useful starter in any of these playoff challenge leagues and in DFS. Although I also would imagine his price would go up considerably in DFS based on what happened on Sunday. And Edward Solaire was trending in the right direction, could have a shot to play in the AFC championship game. So just something to keep an eye on if, in fact,
Starting point is 00:34:10 he is able to go as the Chiefs take on the Bills. All right, so for the Browns, Baker Mayfield, 204, 1-1, just a bad interception, bad read. Tyron Matthew picking him off in the game there, but he played pretty well otherwise. Nick Chubb, 13 carries, 69 yards on the ground, two catches for four yards. He had two bad drops. It was on the same drive, so just an unfortunate situation for him. Kareem Hunt, I thought he'd be much more involved in the passing game, but he did score on the ground, six carries for 32 yards. Did have one catch
Starting point is 00:34:36 for two yards on one target. Rashard Higgins, another tough play, five catches, 88 yards on seven targets. He was one yard away from scoring a touchdown. Daniel Sorensen knocking the ball out. Ended up being a touchback for the Chiefs. And that call is just so outdated at this point. Don't you think that they should retain possession where the ball was fumbled? What should the new rule be? It's hard not to penalize the offense for losing the football.
Starting point is 00:35:07 You know, so the idea, obviously, and I was listening to Kevin Stefanski after that. He said, we preach all the time. I guess he tells his team, don't stick the ball over because only bad things can happen. You know, some teams have different approaches to it. And so, you know, he said that that's on us. That's on Richard. You know, he said he applauded his effort. But I don't know what the new rule should be.
Starting point is 00:35:27 You know, maybe spotting it right where the fumble happens is right. But again, you know, you're not really penalizing them for losing the ball because you just don't know if the other team would have recovered it if the field's extended. So I don't know. I don't know. Do you have a solution? Yeah, they should get the ball where it was fumbled.
Starting point is 00:35:43 That's what it would be. If they were at midfield and this play happened, gets the ball the ball's fumbled out of bounds it stays with the offense it should be a touchdown let's treat it like every other fumble if it goes out of bounds you get it where it goes out of bounds if it goes out of bound in the end zone you should get a touchdown for it this game will turn into bowling i want to see players at the five yard line just chucking the ball forward. Right, right, right, right. Let's do it.
Starting point is 00:36:08 Let's see an increase in scoring. Come on. Yeah, well, Chiefs benefited from that one. Great play by Daniel Thornton as well, although there was a lot of talk about helmet-to-helmet on that play. Also, as he knocked the ball out. So just a lot of stuff going on with that play there to help the Chiefs hurt the Browns.
Starting point is 00:36:22 But in any event, that's the running backs. Higgins goes 5 for 88 on seven targets. He now heads into free agency. Jarvis Landry scored a touchdown again on 10 targets, but only seven catches for 29 yards. David Njoku, four catches for 59 yards on five targets. And Austin Hooper had a great catch in the fourth quarter to, I believe, set up the Kareem Hunt touchdown,
Starting point is 00:36:40 but did not have a great game overall as Hooper had two catches for 16 yards on three targets. So the way the season started is how the season ended for Austin Hooper. So let's talk about the Browns ground attack. Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt. Chubb went fifth overall in our PPR mock draft, which you can see again on cbssports.com. He went with the eighth pick in the half PPR mock draft, which I would probably think that would be reversed. Usually he's going to be better in half and non PPR as opposed to PPR, but Nick Chubb was awesome. They played 11 games, healthy games together,
Starting point is 00:37:14 Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb. And I know the story going into the season was how much would these guys share Kareem Hunt's numbers, Nick Chubb's numbers last year when Kareem Hunt came back from the suspension were downgrade for Nick Chubb. So Chris, when Kareem Hunt came back from the suspension were a downgrade for Nick Chubb. So, Chris, when you're looking at these two guys, is Nick Chubb a first rounder or I think you're a little bit down on him, right? He's not a first round pick for you. Chubb has, I think, the biggest gap between non PBR and PBR value for me.
Starting point is 00:37:37 He's number seven overall in non PBR and number 18 in PPR. But that's something I'm going to have to really give some thought to this offseason because in his first 18 games with Kareem Hunt, the last eight games last year and the first 10 this year, he only had 29 targets. And in the last four, he has 14. So that would be a pretty significant difference. You're talking about the difference between maybe 20 targets over the course of 16 games to 50 to 60 in this last four games.
Starting point is 00:38:10 So I'm going to want to do some research and see if the Browns have talked about anything with that. Because he's a guy I don't think he can't be a good pass catcher. And so if they decide to throw him the ball 40 times next season, yeah, he's probably going to be a first rounder. I just, I don't have it projected that way right now. All right. So let's talk about the comparison of these two guys with Chubb and Hunt, Dave. Where does Hunt stack up now that you've seen, as Chris said, 18 games worth of, or no, 19 games worth of these guys in the regular season, healthy games, 11 this guys in the regular season. Healthy games.
Starting point is 00:38:45 11 this year, the 8 last year. Just to give you an idea in terms of the numbers for these two guys. In the 11 games that they played, Nick Chubb hit 14 plus PPR points nine times. Kareem Hunt, a little bit lower, hit 11 PPR points six times. Now, we did see five games of basically an injured Nick Chubb. Four where he missed, one where he left. It was week four against Dallas. Kareem Hunt, in those five games, hit 18-plus PPR points three times.
Starting point is 00:39:11 So clearly he was better. Great handcuff, as we know. Are you drafting Kareem Hunt as a starting fantasy running back in 2021? He would be toward the – no, I'm not. I was about to say he would be toward the low end of number two running backs, but I think given the depth of the position, he will fall out of the top 24. I don't think he'll be there.
Starting point is 00:39:31 He was a round five pick in our full PPR and half PPR mocks. I think that's fine. Knowing that he will be kind of a, he's in this weird spot, right? Because he's not the one, a guy he's not the 1a guy he's clearly the second running back he does seem to be a little touchdown dependent and he's also the best handcuff running back in fantasy football so he's got some things going for him is it enough to make him a number two fantasy running back i wouldn't want to start him as such yeah for the season he actually finishes more fantasy points than nick chubb, but again, Chubb missing those five games. But the average, 17.3 PPR points for Chubb, 13.6 PPR points for Hunt.
Starting point is 00:40:10 So just factor that in if you're looking ahead to next year. I do think that Kareem Hunt still clearly has flex appeal, but not somebody you necessarily want to guarantee to be a starting running back for you. I'm going off script again because Ben wants to talk about Baker Mayfield, but I want to talk about what Odell Beckham means coming back to this team. Because he didn't play, obviously wasn't a part of the playoff run. Jarvis Landry stepped up down the stretch.
Starting point is 00:40:30 You saw Rashard Higgins. We spent some time on the Fantasy Football Today in 5 talking about this. Chris brought up the case that Higgins can maybe be a number three receiver if, in fact, we don't get Beckham back at the level that he was, or maybe the Browns decide to move on from Odell Beckham. But Dave, your thoughts on Beckham for 2021. Are you comfortable drafting him as a starter again,
Starting point is 00:40:48 as we more of a number three receiver? I'd prefer to get him as a number three receiver, but I might be living in a fantasy world for that to happen because someone in every league is going to look at Odell Beckham, whether he's on the Browns or another team, and they're going to remember the good old days with the giants. And they're going to take a chance on him before I'm comfortable drafting him. Is the talent still there? Is the speed still there? Those are questions we're going to have to get answered at some point here because we know that his body does seem to be failing him. That's not good. And people should be nervous about drafting him if you're not going to get a full season out of him. We also can't say with certainty that he's going to be back with the Browns. They can't cut them.
Starting point is 00:41:26 And if there's no team, that's going to pony up something good to trade for him, then he'll be in Cleveland. But we've seen the best of Baker Mayfield without Odell Beckham on the field. It's the weirdest thing. I would not be that excited to draft Odell Beckham based on what we've seen after his first three years in the NFL.
Starting point is 00:41:47 22 games with the Browns for Beckham. 16 last year, 60 this year. I'm throwing out the game where he got hurt because he got hurt in the first quarter. Sure. Only had one target in that game. He scored 11 PPR points in 11 of them. And he basically averaged seven targets per game in the six games this year with Stefanski if you're just looking at what this offense was for Beckham so Chris just yes or no answer or
Starting point is 00:42:10 just give me the name who would you rather have in fantasy in 2021 Jarvis Landry or Odell Beckham Beckham but neither is a high priority okay and Beckham in the two drafts that we did speculating went around seven in both of those leagues around seven in the PPR draft around seven in the two drafts that we did speculating went around seven in both of those leagues, around seven in the PPR draft, around seven in the half PPR draft. So I think that's the right range to speculate for Beckham if you are looking ahead to next year. All right, let's move on to the final game of the weekend. Bucks 30, Saints 20.
Starting point is 00:42:37 Again, Drew Brees heads into retirement. We'll talk about the Saints in a second. But Brady, 199-2. Also ran for a touchdown. Didn't get a high five from the ref on his way back to the bench. Uh, was a very funny moment. If you saw that happen, playoff Lenny, Leonard Fournette, 17 carries 63 yards, five catches, 44 yards and a touchdown on six targets. Uh,
Starting point is 00:42:56 he has been fantastic in the playoffs in his career, going back to the Jacksonville Jaguars run in 2017, 2016, 2017. I don't remember which one year it was the, uh. The Blake Bortles year where they had that run to the AFC Championship game. But he was great then. He's been great so far for Tampa Bay as well. Ronald Jones returns from the quad injury. 13 carries, 62 yards.
Starting point is 00:43:14 He did have one target, didn't have a catch. Cameron Braid, four for 50 on five targets. Kier Scott went four for 34 on seven targets. Mike Evans scored a touchdown, but he was locked down by Marshawn Latimer. Only had that one catch. It was a three yard score. And Antonio Brown dealing with that knee injury,
Starting point is 00:43:28 one catch for 10 yards on three targets. All right. Same question. Chris, I'll ask you this one. The non-obvious, let's go with the running backs. Which running back would you prefer going into the NFC championship game?
Starting point is 00:43:41 A healthy now Ronald Jones or a more productive Leonard Fournette for two games? I think if Ronald Jones is healthy and he did leave this one briefly in the second half limped off, I think you probably still have to view him as the better option. If you think it's going to be a closed game, because what we've seen this season is when they've had the chance to run the ball, it's usually been Ronald Jones for the most part. Four net has played better in the situations where they had to pass the ball. But given that it's the Packers, it might be four net in a game where he gets four or five targets because
Starting point is 00:44:18 they've, they've been more willing to use him as the dump off in the passing game than, than Ronald Jones. It's going to be interesting to see what they do, but I do think Leonard Fournette with the way that he's running, he seems to be the preferred option. I was curious to see who would start the game. It was Fournette.
Starting point is 00:44:32 Ronald Jones looks explosive. And the one thing that you heard on the broadcast, Bruce Arian saying to the broadcast team that they were concerned about Ronald Jones opening up. You mentioned when he left the game, it was on a breakaway run. It was called back due to holding, but he kind of pulled himself off the field. He didn't get tackled. He, and this was not a penalty thing. He, he, he seemed to come up lame a little bit, but he did come back in the game and finish the game. So we'll see what another week of practice
Starting point is 00:44:55 does for Ronald Jones. I was getting to the saints a little bit. So Drew Brees, his most likely final game in the NFL, 134 yards and a touchdown, but three interceptions. Not all of them were his fault. It was a tipped pass on one, but he did not throw the ball very well. Did not throw the ball down the field. Looked like a 42-year-old quarterback. Alvin Kamara didn't have a great game either by comparison to what we typically see from him. 18 carries, 85 yards, three catches for 20 yards on six targets.
Starting point is 00:45:20 Traquan Smith scored two touchdowns. One was on a nice trick play from Jameis Winston. Remember, Taysom Hill did not play in this game, but Traquan Smith scored two touchdowns. One was on a nice trick play from Jameis Winston. Remember, Taysom Hill did not play in this game, but Traquan Smith, three catches, 85 yards, and the two scores on three targets. Emmanuel Sanders, six catches, 48 yards on nine targets. Derek Cook with a costly fumble. He had five catches for 28 yards on six targets,
Starting point is 00:45:40 and Michael Thomas did not have a catch as he dealt with Carlton Davis. Four targets for him, no catches there. So let's start with Michael Thomas because there's some, you know, hearing some things from some people around the team that he's not happy in New Orleans. We know what this year was for him. He started the season with the ankle injury, punched his teammate,
Starting point is 00:45:57 got suspended for a game, had to deal with Taysom Hill. I don't know how much that plays into it, and then was placed on injured reserve in the final three games. He signed a mega deal last, last season, but may not be happy with Drew Brees leaving and the quarterback situation being what it is, but for now expecting to be back with the saints. So Dave is Michael Thomas,
Starting point is 00:46:14 still a top five fantasy receiver going into 2021. Let's assume Taysom Hill is the quarterback for this scenario here. No, he's not. He's he'll be, he'll be a top 12 receiver, but he won't be a top five receiver. I just think that the downgrade at quarterback is going to hurt him enough.
Starting point is 00:46:30 We know that he didn't even score a touchdown. He didn't play a lot in the regular season, obviously. And we don't know how bad the high ankle sprain held him back this year. But I think you have to write it off. But at the same time, you have to worry about what the quarterback situation is going to be in New Orleans and what that means for Michael Thomas. If it's Taysom Hill, I'd be nervous to count on him as a big-time fantasy receiver. If they do something crazy like they trade the world for Deshaun Watson or something like that, maybe they get Matthew
Starting point is 00:47:00 Stafford, then of course I'll veer back the other way and say that Michael Thomas will have a great year. I'd be nervous to draft him as a top five type of receiver. So Chris, he played four games with Taysom Hill. He played the four starts that Taysom Hill had. He averaged 15.8 PPR points in that game. Two of those games, he hit 19 PPR points, two games, he went over a hundred yards receiving the target share was certainly slanted in his favor. He had three games with at least eight targets in those four games for tasem hill but at 15.8 ppr points per game he would have only been the number 14 receiver in 2020 based on points per game so is that the ceiling now for michael thomas or do you think that's the floor knowing that tasem hill
Starting point is 00:47:39 full off season if in fact he's a starter uh starter. But a healthy Michael Thomas getting back to the target share maybe that we saw in 2019, do you think he'd get back to somewhere close to that level, or is that guy never going to show up again? Yeah, I mean, he had a 45% target share in the games that Taysom Hill played. That one game where he only had four catches for 50 yards on six targets, that was the game they only threw the ball 16 times.
Starting point is 00:48:03 They made a point of focusing on Michael Thomas more in the passing game with taste mail. And it makes sense. He's a, he's a great sure handed target. He's someone you can, you know, throw the ball to on short routes and he can make something happen with them. And that's what they did with taste and Hill. So, you know, his 16 game pace in those four games was 120 catches, 1,370 yards. I think most people would be kind of shocked by that. And you said, what, 15.8 PPR points? He did that with no touchdowns. I have to imagine, even though I'm not super sold on Taysom Hill as a starting QB in the NFL, he's going to have somewhere more than zero touchdowns if he gets 150 targets next season, which was the pace. And so I have him at number
Starting point is 00:48:47 five and that's projecting Taysom Hill at QB. If it's Jameis Winston, you know, I think he could be a top two or three fantasy wide receiver again, but yeah, I'm, I'm still viewing Michael Thomas as, you know, I have him more like a mid to late second rounder, even as the number five wide receiver, but I have no problem with him as my number one wide receiver. And just to give you an idea of our early rankings, these are all on the site, our top 12 wide receiver rankings. He's number six for me, number seven for Dave, number five for Heath and number four for you, Chris. So the interesting one for you is taking Thomas over Tyreek Hill. So you're buying back in clearly to Thomas.
Starting point is 00:49:28 I've adjusted that one and Hill's a little higher now. Gotcha. All right. So at least the rankings that you'll see, we'll see Michael Thomas over Tyreek Hill, but Chris would go with Tyreek Hill over Michael Thomas now. So this is going to be an interesting team to keep an eye on, but is there anybody else?
Starting point is 00:49:41 Cause you know, Kamara is going to be a top five overall pick, you know, Michael Thomas, as we said, will be most likely a second round selection at worst. Jared Cook heads into free agency. So maybe Adam Troutman falls in this category. Trey Kwan Smith is somebody that's going to be interesting. We'll, we'll, we'll eliminate the quarterbacks because I think Taysom Hill might be the third player drafted if he is the starting quarterback there, but is there anybody else? And I'll just leave this open to both of you, Dave, you start first. Is there anybody else you're looking at and saying
Starting point is 00:50:04 with a late round pick, I'm taking this Saints player? You mentioned Troutman. I'm excited about him. Big body, moves well at tight end. We saw a sprinkle of him this year. Didn't really do a whole heck of a lot, but they're going to move on from Cook, and there's a good opportunity for Troutman to step up. I would like it better if Jameis were the quarterback in that situation rather than Taysom Hill. We'll see what happens. And for the record better if Jameis were the quarterback in that situation rather than Taysom Hill. We'll see what happens. And for the record, if Jameis is the starting quarterback, he would be that third guy drafted in New Orleans and not Taysom Hill. So whoever that quarterback is, that's your third guy on New Orleans. And I wonder what we get out of Deontay Harris. Does
Starting point is 00:50:41 he get an opportunity to play more on offense? He's clearly got some good speed. This offense will need that, especially if they let Trey Kwan Smith walk in free agency. There, there could be something there as well, where in deep, deep, deep leagues,
Starting point is 00:50:55 maybe this is something for the dynasty leaguers out there where Deontay Harris is somebody who could be worth speculating on over the next couple of months. Chris, anybody for you? There will be a top 12 quarterback in new Orleans for fantasy. If it's Taysom Hill, there's nobody else that I'll be interested in drafting.
Starting point is 00:51:12 If it's James Winston, I think both Trey Kwan Smith and Deontay Harris will be very interesting late round flyers because, you know, we know James Winston has produced the kind of offenses that can lead to several fantasy relevantrelevant wide receivers. So it all depends on who the quarterback is. And there could be somebody we're not talking about.
Starting point is 00:51:32 Jameis, again, is an unrestricted free agent. He could certainly decide to leave. They may decide they're going to completely change their focus and draft a quarterback and go with a rookie. Or they may, as Dave alluded to, maybe we see Deshaun Watson or Matthew Stafford or one of these. Matt Ryan could be available, too.
Starting point is 00:51:50 The Falcons may decide to move on. There could be a veteran guy that surprises us and is the new quarterback for the Saints in 2021. But most likely, it seems as if the four-game sample size without Breeze with the rib injury that Taysom Hill is probably the leader to be the quarterback replacing Breeze, who hasn't officially retired yet, but that seems to be the way that is trending. All right, let's get into some emails here.
Starting point is 00:52:08 Thank you for sending them to us. Fantasyfootball at cbsi.com is the address. Joe in New York wants to know, dear Jamie, Dave Heath, and Mr. Paternity Leave, I'm assuming that's Adam, not you, Chris. So yeah, no children yet. Just Joe just acquired an orphan dynasty team in a PPR tight end premium super flex league. He wants to start a rebuild. What should they be asking for in trade for Travis Kelsey?
Starting point is 00:52:31 Dave, I'll give that one to you. You're going to want to get a starter, potentially a tight end starter to replace Travis Kelsey, plus a first round pick in the rookie draft. And that's at a minimum with those two. It depends on how good the tight end is that you get in place of Kelsey. And it's easy to say, well, ask for everything. It's Travis Kelsey. He's going to be awesome. He's also what? 32. So, right. So I'm how many more years are we going to get of Travis Kelsey as a dynamite fantasy tight end? That's going to be the argument that someone's going to use against you in a trade talk, but he still has value for at least the next two seasons. I would imagine.
Starting point is 00:53:08 I think the thing you look for is you go to the potential champion or playoff contenders, because if you can't get a high first round pick, but those teams clearly have the win now mode, and they may have a young player or two that they could flip back to you. Let's say Justin Jefferson, for example, somebody along those lines or T Higgins or somebody who went maybe back end of round one, Brandon, I, you know, one of those guys get a, get a first round pick, maybe a second first round pick in a, in an upcoming draft, a second round pick. You gotta, you gotta come away with a lot of draft capital and at least one player that you can plug into your lineup right away. And then maybe look at Kyle pits as somebody who can help replace Travis
Starting point is 00:53:45 Kelsey, one of your first round selections, depending on where he ends up. All right. Reed wants to know Dave, where's Reed from Boston, Massachusetts, Boston,
Starting point is 00:53:54 Massachusetts. So I'll give this one to you, Chris. He has the 1.03 third overall pick in a upcoming rookie draft. His quarterbacks are Joe Burrow to a tongue of Iloa, Jamis Winston, and Jordan Love. Let's assume, because we don't have the format here, let's assume it's a 2QB league,
Starting point is 00:54:09 is 1.03 too early for Trevor Lawrence, knowing that you have Burrow, Tua, and potentially Jameis Winston for the upcoming season, but would you pull the trigger on Trevor Lawrence there if he's available? I probably wouldn't be willing to do that. It's not too early. I don't think 103 is too early for Trevor Lawrence in a vacuum. But given that you've already invested so much in Joe Burrow and Tua Tungabailoa, I think you've still got a pretty good chance of coming away with a starting fantasy quarterback from that group, especially with Jameis Winston potentially finding a starting job. It just doesn't seem like the best.
Starting point is 00:54:44 This isn't the NFL where quarterback is like the only thing that matters. And so you, if like, I think it would be fine if the dolphins drafted a quarterback at one Oh three and kept to it. It's not the same in fantasy, even in a dynasty league. So now I wouldn't do that in your situation.
Starting point is 00:55:00 I guess the only counter that would be is you'll know Jameis' status before you have to do your rookie draft because he will have had a team by then, presumably, unless it's Cam Newton's situation where he just holds out and doesn't get a job until in the summer. But I like my team a lot better. Two quarterback are super flexible. I know I have Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence as opposed to Burrow and Tua, especially with Burrow coming off the ACL tear, not knowing that. Yeah. I mean, with Burrow, Tua, Winston, and Love, there's a decent chance you don't have a week one starter out of this group right now.
Starting point is 00:55:31 So that's also a concern for 2021. But I would still pass on QB at 103. Yeah, again, though, those formats, it's hard not to have a good stable of quarterbacks. You can always trade Tua or Burrow or Lawrence, depending on what happens for some pretty good players in return. All right. Sam in Denver wants to know, keep your question. Jonathan Taylor in round four or Justin Jefferson in round 16? Just give me the name. We don't need any analysis. So both of you guys can answer. Dave, I'll start with you first.
Starting point is 00:55:57 Jonathan Taylor in round four, Justin Jefferson in round 16. That's tough. I think I can't resist Jefferson in 16. That's Jefferson for me. Could be the can't resist Jefferson in 16. That's Jefferson for me. Could be the next great wide receiver in the NFL after what we saw from him in his rookie season. Hard to pass on Jonathan Taylor in round four, but the value of Justin Jefferson is just too good. So congratulations, Sam in Denver. You should have a great wide receiver for 2021.
Starting point is 00:56:19 All right, guys, great job. We'll be back on Tuesday to get more into our running back and wide receiver outlook for 2021. We obviously have fantasy football today in five as well, and we'll give you the updates throughout the week heading into the AFC Championship game and the NFC Championship game. Hopefully we'll have a healthy Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs to get a fun matchup between Mahomes and Josh Allen.
Starting point is 00:56:42 I'm Jamie Eisenberg. That's Dave Richards. That's Chris Towers. Thank you for watching Fantasy Football We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We've got to go back. Are you a professional pillow fighter or a 9-to-5 low-cost time travel agent? Or maybe real estate sales on Mars is your profession. It doesn't matter.
Starting point is 00:56:59 Whatever it is you do, however complex or intricate, Monday.com can help you organize, orchestrate, and make it more efficient. Monday.com is the one centralized platform for everything work-related. And with Monday.com, work is just easier. Monday.com, for whatever you run. Go to Monday.com to learn more.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.