Fantasy Football Today - D.K. Metcalf Profile: Not a Top 24 WR? (08/21 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 21, 2022

Donate to St. Jude as part of our Draft-A-Thon! Bid on pre-draft calls with our experts, a spot in the FFT Podcast League, a guest spot on Fantasy Football Today and more! https://ebay.to/3p4Dc3Z Can D.K. Metcalf thrive with what is likely to be a bad quarterback situation? We don't want to count him out, but Jacob Gibbs tells you what the metrics say and why we're a little hesitant to draft Metcalf.  You can also follow the full-length Fantasy Football Today podcast here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-podcast/id261735167 Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, You can listen to Fantasy Football Today in 5 on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today in 5 podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today in 5 podcast." Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to power your scale with no preset spending limit. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Let's talk about DK Metcalf here on Fantasy Football Today in five. Adam Azer and Jacob Gibbs talking about a very talented wide receiver

who's not in the best situation. On Fantasy Pros ADP, as of August 18th, DK Metcalf is wide receiver 18. I just did a draft, Jacob, a three-receiver PPR league with a bunch of industry people. He was wide receiver 30. He went after Rashad Babin, Darnell Mooney. He went after Jerry Judy. He went after some guys we don't usually see DK Metcalf go after.

So talk to me about DK Metcalf and where you think he should go and just the basics here. That's interesting, yeah. He's been dropping steadily for me. I think I've been wide receiver 26. I would take a lot of the guys you mentioned over him. First, before we get into the negative, I just want to take a second to really appreciate DK Metcalf

because the growth that we've seen from him over the past five seasons is really insane, kind of unprecedented compared to any other growth that we've seen from him over the past five seasons is really insane kind of unprecedented compared to any other receivers that I've evaluated and it's possible that he you know has improved again going into 2022 and you know maybe could transcend some of these circumstances that we're going to talk about so what I want to look at is his target hog rate which is the percentage of targets that he accounted for while on the field, dating all the way back to 2017. I have an article out on Sportsline looking at the college data during that time for some of the younger receivers that just kind of contextualize what we've seen at the NFL level so far, what we could expect going forward. And Metcalf's data really stood

out to me among all the guys I looked at. So in 2017 Ole Miss, he only counted for 19.5% of the targets while on the field, which is really low. It's one of the lowest of over a hundred seasons that I evaluated that climbed to 23%. Um, his next year at Ole Miss 2018 and 2019 at the NFL level, he maintained that 23% mark really impressive to do as a rookie, uh, up to 25% the next year. And then last year, all the way up to 31%. So that's just, it's nuts, honestly. Like he's progressed so quickly in his ability to demand targets over the past five years. Coming from under 20% at the college level to above 30% at the NFL

is something I haven't seen, and it really, really stands out. I don't know how much more room there is to grow. So his target per hour run rate was 26% last year. For reference, the league leaders are generally around 30 to 32%. So you can only go so high. But what we've seen so far is Metcalf is definitely developing into one of the league's premier target hogs, and it's really exciting. On the other hand, what's not exciting?

Yeah, what's not exciting is the situation here. And also his efficiency drop off last year, Metcalf somehow finished under a thousand yards, um, with, you know, the target load that we just talked about. Um, and he also had a massive air yard hog rate. Um, and so like somehow those two things in combination in a Russell Wilson offense resulted in under a thousand yards. And I think that it's unlikely that his efficiency is going to improve this year. And if his touchdowns regress without Russell Wilson, then he projects for a really, really scary floor on a week to week basis. Um, so he had the fourth highest touchdown dependency rating last year, um, among qualified receivers.

And now he's going to a Drew Locke, you know, Gino Smith offense that projects for under 20 passing touchdowns and even running a favorable projection for DK comes out, you know, really, really gross. It's hard to reject him for more than like six or seven touchdowns in this offense. And so we can get into the weeds on that if you want. But I'm just, I'm just curious, curious how you see him getting to this spot. Do you have him in the top 20, 25?

Because I can't really find a way to project him for that. Yeah, basically when I stop finding wide receivers that I'm really excited to draft, I kind of settle for DK Metcalf. I believe I took him in a mock draft in the fifth round the other day. And I was fine with it because I think he's going to be, you know, I think he's really good. He played three games with Geno Smith last year, and it's a little bit skewed because he had a 80 or 75-yard touchdown that shouldn't have counted on

Marshawn Lattimore. It really boosted his stats, but, you know, I think he'll lead the team in touchdowns, and I think he'll get 1,000 yards. And the thing about the yards last year and all the production last year is he had foot surgery in the offseason. He played down the stretch through a foot injury and didn't really talk about it until the season was over, but obviously it seemed to have affected him, and he had surgery on it. It wasn't just a minor injury, so I'm willing to forgive a little bit. Russell Wilson was

a little bit off when he came back. He wasn't the same old Russell Wilson. He came back too early. So, yeah, basically is he a top 24 wide receiver? I don't have rankings, but he's right on the cusp for me, and yeah, it's when I get to, I would take him over Rashad Bateman. I think that makes sense. I would take him over Gabriel Davis. I know a lot of people wouldn't, but I would not take him over Sutton or Judy at this point. I wouldn't take him over Mike Williams. Wide receiver 18 is too early, but wide receiver 30 is a steal, I think, on Metcalf.

Yeah, I think that makes sense. I've had a hard time knowing where to place him because my projections place him outside of the top 24, but I think what you said is after the players you're excited for are off the board, then you're content taking him if he falls. But yeah, in terms of projection, I gave him really favorable projections across the board, and what I did was I got multipliers using the best rate for either Drew Locke or Geno

Smith. I just chose the best one from each of them, just trying to be favorable in terms of their wide receivers, your per run rate, reception rate, and then touchdown to target rate. And I compared those to Russell Wilson's rate and even removed DK Metcalf from the equation. So it's Russell's receivers that aren't DK Metcalf compared to those guys' receivers that aren'tacon metcalf from the equation so it's russell's um receivers that aren't deacon metcalf compared to those guys receivers in our deacon metcalf and uh it came out to 200 ppr points which would have finished as a wide receiver 25 last year and that's with

metcalf taking on a slightly higher target per hour and rate projection 27 it was 26 last year so i think from a projection standpoint it's hard to give him much of a ceiling, but he can still get there. If you're getting a wide receiver at 30, I think he can still be a value, but I don't think there's room for much more beyond that. Yeah, unfortunately, it's hard to make a case that DK Metcalf can be a top 10 or 12 wide receiver. I think if you're deciding between him

and someone who does have that potential, I would recommend going with the other guy. But maybe he'll surprise us, like great players sometimes do. All right, Jacob, thank you very much. And everybody, thanks for watching and listening. Enjoy the rest of your weekend. We'll talk to you on Monday on Fantasy Football Today.

And bye.