Fantasy Football Today - Do Not Draft List! Avoid These Players at their ADP (06/30 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 30, 2022

Get some FFT gear here (and use promo code FANTASYFOOTBALL20 for 20% off!): https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20 It's not that Heath hates Najee Harris (1:10) or Dave can't stand Cam Akers (6:45), it's that they won't be drafting these players at their current average draft positions. We've got a list of 10 players on the DO NOT DRAFT list, and it's all based on ADP. We also have some news (10:50) as Miles Sanders seems a bit frustrated with his role ... DO NOT DRAFT running backs include Javonte Williams (13:15) and Travis Etienne (19:05) for Dave. There is only one quarterback on the list and it's Joe Burrow (21:50) for Heath. When are we comfortable drafting these guys? ... At tight end, Heath says Kyle Pitts is going too early (26:15) but there is some disagreement. Meanwhile, we talk about four wide receivers who might be going too early with good debates on CeeDee Lamb (33:45), Diontae Johnson (36:15), D.K. Metcalf (39:00) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (44:15). And we finish with some Mark Andrews talk (44:55) ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. What's up, everybody? It is Thursday, and we are talking about our Do Not Draft list, which is really just Do Not Draft at their ADP. We don't hate these guys. We think they're good, but based on where they are being drafted, not going to be on our teams.

Dave and Heath are here. I am Adam. You got to get your emails if we have time at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. If you have a question, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. That is the letter I. And also Fantasy Cops. Been meaning to do a Fantasy Cops segment.

Definitely going to do that at some point soon. If you have any league disputes, you can email that email address and put Fantasy Cops in the subject line. All right, guys. Give me your headliner. Do not draft list. Heath Cummings. The biggest one.

The biggest name for you on the do not draft list. Who is it? Well, I went through round by round by NFC ADP, so I'll just start with the first rounder. It seems like that's probably the biggest guy. Judging by his weight game, he's the biggest guy. And judging by his weight gain, maybe the biggest guy, literally as well. Najee Harris in the first round, no, he only gained like five to 25 pounds, depending on who you believe. I'm not drafting Najee Harris in the

first round. He is pick 13 or 14 for me. And I just, man, there's so much of his value last year that was dependent on two things. The fact that the Steelers threw the ball 664 times and the fact that he played 17 games. And I don't want to count on those two things. We're talking about a guy who led the lead, led all running backs in receptions and still finished number eight on a per game basis rb8 i don't have any reason to think he's necessarily going to be more efficient i don't think the offense is going to be worse but i don't know that it's going to be better and i think both their total number of passes and the percentage of their passes that go to running backs could plummet.

So RB8, let me just get your take. So we never really talk about this. And I think I should say he was RB8. He was closer to Ezekiel Elliott in points per game at RB18 than he was at Austin Eckler at RB3. Okay. But that's... It was a miserable RB8. This is... Oh, now I'm mad. Now I'm mad.

Because, yes. It's just factual. I know, but why didn't you go to RB4? Because he was much, much closer to RB4 than he was to RB3. So we actually don't talk about this a lot. We should bring it up more, right? Heath and I are using fftoday.com.

They're PBR... No, I am not. Okay. I'm using that. Right. That's why we always have different numbers. Right. That means that we have three completely different courses.

Well, you know, I mean, either way, either way, Arby's one through three were in a class of their own per game. Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Austin Eckler. On FFToday, Arby four is Leonard Fournette at 18.3. RB7 is Alvin Kamara at 18.1. So there's almost no difference between RB4 and RB7. And then you have Najee Harris, who is RB8 at 17.7. He was six-tenths of a point worse per game

than Leonard Fournette, which isn't nothing. And Leonard Fournette was RB4 per game. And Leonard Fournette's not being drafted in the first round. Yeah, it's a good question. Why isn't he? But, you know, he, but I would say that to be fair to Najee Harris,

he was pretty close to RB4. He wasn't close to RB3 because nobody was really, except for the first three. But he was pretty close to RB4. And it is, it's hard to give so much context to everything, right? But we say he was RB8. How about this?. But he was pretty close to RB4. And it's hard to give so much context to everything, right? But we say he was RB8. How about this?

He was close to RB4. He was closer to RB4 than to RB13. Much, right? Yeah. Yeah, much. But again, I'm using different numbers than you have. I've got him as a... But still, either way, they're very similar.

Even if they're not the same he's much closer rb4 than he was rb13 2.3 points per game ahead of rb13 who on my list is aaron jones and he was i think half a ppr point off of uh leonard fournette is exactly what i have exactly except 0.6 instead of 0.5 off The thing, what you have to decide first is, do you think in full PPR, Najee Harris is more likely to score more or less fantasy points per game they did last year? So he only scored 10 touchdowns in 17 games.

You got to hope that goes up. I don't. I mean, it might. Do we think the Steelers are going to have a good offense? I do not. No. And I think I'm probably the highest on the side on Najee. And it's something that I've thought a lot about

because the next guy I have behind him is McCaffrey, and I know what the warts are on McCaffrey. And the one thing that I think I can feel good about with Najee Harris is that he's young, he's strong, good pedigree, survived 17 games last season. I think if there was a guy, if there was a profile to survive 17 games at a running back, he would fit that. Second year in the league and all that stuff. I do think the offensive line is going to be better because how could it be worse? I guess it would be the Dolphins offensive line or something like that. And I think he's still going to be involved in the passing game whether it's to the same degree. I'm not

100% certain on. I do know that if you take out that game where he had 14 catches it was early in the year, still average over three catches per game. It's pretty good for a running back. That means he's going to get you over 50 on the course of the season. I think he can do better than that. I do think he's a contender for double-digit touchdowns, maybe even 12. I think he is going to be their primary option inside the five. Do I think the offense is going to be good? It's going to be different. And I think by that alone, it's going to be better than what it was last year. So I kind of like Najee Harris. I think he's going to get a lot of opportunities. He might

be more of a compiler than a breakaway guy, but I think he's, I think he's worth the first round pick. And honestly, I think if you've got questions about some other running backs, he's worth early in the middle, maybe the middle part of that first round. Okay, Dave, who's the headliner of your do not draft list? Well, listen, I've got a bombshell to drop on everybody, and I know that I'm going to get a lot of brushback for this, but here goes.

Greg Zerline, who's been so good as a fantasy kicker for so long is now on the jets and i just i cannot take him at his current i was really disappointed i thought you were just going to say the top 12 wide receivers no i when i looked at this list i wanted to pick guys that i had ranked 10 spots at minimum at least 10 spots where they were on the NFC ADP. I think the headliner for me, it's been this guy all along, is Cam Akers. I just need to see him look good. I don't know when we're really going to see it or really feel it, but if he can't regain his explosiveness,

then I don't see how the coaches in Los Angeles would even let him be a feature back again. They won the Super Bowl and went on a Super Bowl run in spite of him. And they almost did it on purpose because they kept giving him the ball as much as they did in the playoffs. There's no way he's a third-round pick right now. Okay, Cam Akers. What do you think about these numbers? A 17-game pace of 241 carries, 46 catches,

about 1,400 total yards, and 13 touchdowns. Well, that's definitely not the pace that he showed in the playoffs. Well, of course he didn't show that in the playoffs. He was coming back from a torn Achilles. He was terrible. Why not pay attention to what he did at the end? This, by the way, what I'm about to say, it's not the same. Why not pay attention to what he did at the end of the 2020 season when he was very good?

But that's not what those numbers were. So, again, it was 287 touches 1 392 yep total yards you sound like my argument to take cam acres in round one last year yeah this is this is daryl henderson 17 game pace before he got hurt that's very close to what i have acres projected for i've got them at 281 touches 12 95 yards and 12 touchdowns so you just have a lower yards per carry because henderson averaged 4.6 yards per carry yeah i definitely have a lower yards per carry and i've only got them at 29 catches um so i've got them at rb, which is right at the 3-4 turn. The catches are curious. Or early round two for Dave.

That's a big deal, right? Dave loves running backs. But that is a big deal, the catches, right? What did you say you projected acres for, Heath? 29. What do you think, Dave? Give me an estimate. If Cam Akers plays 17 games, how many catches? I'd lean closer to 29

than 46. Okay. Alright, so it's Najee Harris. He's going 6th overall for Heath. Heath wouldn't draft him in the first round. He'd take him just after that. And for Dave, it's Cam Akers as the headliner. Akers, according to NFC ADP in the month of June, is

going 30th, dave would take him 52nd cool one thing you should take is 20 off your order at the cbs store if you want some fantasy football today gear we're talking hats mugs sweatpants you want to be lazy wear some fft sweatpants that'd be great pint glasses water bottles t-shirts all this great stuff and you can get it with the FFT logo. It's really cool. And you can get 20% off your order when you use this code. It's only for our listeners.

Fantasy Football 20. I love that, by the way. They gave me the copy that says it's only for our listeners. If you give it to your friend who doesn't listen and your friend uses the Fantasy Football 20 code, they're going to know they're not a listener. They won't get the discount. Anyway, I'll give you the link in the episode description to the cbs store and there you can find our products and buy them and get 20 off your first order with the promo code fantasy football

20 not a lot of news these days although we are waiting for the big one, and we could have it the Sean Watson decision soon. Is that hearing? What do you mean by soon? I saw something that could be by the end of the week. Friday news dump. Yeah, it could be. Okay. I thought the trial was supposed to stretch into next week.

That would be awesome. Bring news up tomorrow. Not really. I don't really want to do a bonus pod this week. I'd rather wait till next week. You already scheduled a bonus pod this week. Yeah, but that's in place of another one next week. It's not a bonus pod.

It's your Monday show. Monday's 4th of July, so we'll have a pre-recorded mailbag on Friday. So have time to get your questions in. And Miles Sanders wants the ball more. And he says, fantasy football, I don't care about it. Don't pick me up on fantasy no more. You're going to keep getting two to three points if, and then he stopped himself.

Yes. He didn't ever say he wanted the ball more. He said several sentences where he just stopped like two-thirds of the way through. But he doesn't care about fantasy football. Well, he's frustrated because people want more fantasy production from him. He knows that he was asked if he's, uh, approached by fantasy managers basically. And he showed some frustration with his role. I, would you say that's accurate? I, well, I thought, I mean, he, you could interpret

it multiple ways. He definitely showed some frustration. It was difficult to interpret because of his lack of words, whether the frustration was with fantasy managers or his role or both. I'd probably, I'd say both. Would you guys rather have Miles Sanders or Elijah Mitchell? Mitchell. Damian Harris. Non-PPR Harris. Harris will be on my bust list.

Full PPR, I think I'd go Sanders. If I had gone past round five, Harris would be a do-not-draft list. If I had a do-not-draft list, he would be the entire list, I think. I would just list them five times. Damien Harris. I would just leave Patriots and running back each year

and then just change the name whoever the highest drafted one was. Except for the PPR guy, you know? Yeah, he's been great lately. Well, no. James White had 12 catches in two games. And then he got hurt in the third game very early. These are stats.

Okay, those are your news and notes. Let's go to the Do Not Draft list. Dave, you got Cam Akers. We talked about that. You're saying Javante Williams. I do feel like you've been a little bit lower on him now than you were when the Melvin Gordon signing happened. Is that fair?

Okay, so the context is Javante's going 16th, and Dave has him 27th. So that's why he's on the Do Not Draft list. If you can get him in the third round, great. But 16th Do Not Draft for Javante Williams. I just, I love the talent. I don't like the situation that he's still going to be splitting, even if it's 60, 40 and the offense is going to be better in Denver, but it's not going to be what it was last year. They're definitely going to throw more. This offense is going to be about Russell Wilson. It's not going to be about Javante.

Here's a fun stat. Do you know how many targets running backs have gotten from Russell Wilson from three yards or closer over the last three years? From three yards or closer? To the goal line. Oh. Oh. One?

That seems like a very specific. It's too high. Too high. Wow. really? He doesn't throw to running backs down there. He loves wide receivers and then tight ends. And that's kind of been the MO of his career with just passing in general, too. Except when he had Jimmy Graham, but Jimmy Graham was more wide receiver.

And this is what we talked about yesterday. Or maybe we didn't. Maybe I talked about it last night on a different show. This is the one, probably the most maddening situation because of the potential upside and the fact that you have to mesh all of these weapons who have never played with a good quarterback and Russell Wilson, who has been with Pete Carroll for a decade and Hackett who may have been making decisions or may have just been doing whatever the floor said because if you looked at Hackett's

record you would think man there's going to be a huge amount of running back involvement and you're probably not going to see 600 pass attempts from Russell Wilson because Aaron Rodgers doesn't ever throw it 600 times but I think you are going to see denver throw a lot i think they're i don't think russ would be as excited to be there if it wasn't for the entire change of philosophy and he's not under the thumb of pete carroll anymore it would be weird if he was like oh i'm cool with not passing when he was fighting for years to throw more and be more involved in the seattle offense and if they're throwing more, that means there's fewer rush attempts to go around and there's already going

to be so many rush attempts for Javante versus Melvin Gordon. And if we had said last year, well, you can drop both these guys. And then when Melvin Gordon invariably gets hurt, Javante Williams will go off to the races that worked for one week. And then the rest of the time you had two running backs that were good flex options. I don't want to drive. I know there's upside there.

I know we're excited about him. The talent is undeniable. I wish Melvin Gordon would take a one-way trip to Hawaii. Like he goes to camp and he just retires. It's too soon to take him in the middle of a run, too.

YouTube chat, right? They're still hosting. No, I probably cut him off too soon. Look at you, Heath. You're all over me. I'm sorry. Yeah, you are, Heath. Adam, I probably cut him off too soon. Look at you, Heath. You're all over me. I'm sorry. Yeah, you are, Heath. I'm just,

Adam put me in a bad mood. It's not your fault, Dave. I'm sorry. Why did I put you in a bad mood? What did I do? No, it's okay. Is it the RB4 thing?

It's what I did in the Dynasty draft. It was the RB4 thing? No, it was before the show. We're putting you on the Friday episode? Rank these running backs. Rank these running backs.

Devontae Williams, TM Akers, J.K. Dob Dobbins Saquon Barkley and so this is a great question I'm happy to put Gervonta Williams out of Akers and Dobbins as of now that's to me that's easy because I'm way more nervous about Akers and Dobbins than I am Gervonta Williams but we did a draft a couple weeks ago and it was full PPR and I I had Williams ranked ahead of Saquon, and I guess I'm just buying into Saquon having a good year,

certainly taking on a lot of work in the Giants' offense. I like what the Giants did with their offensive line. I think he's going to catch a lot of passes in this offense. I know that there's a worse quarterback in New York than there is in Denver. I took Saquon Barkley. How is that good, though, for a running back? What?

A bad quarterback? Because the quarterback could dump off the ball to you. Yeah, and he will. And also, you can look at the number one running back from Fantasy last year. I'm trying to think if he was that way the year before. I'm thinking about Jonathan Taylor last year and Derrick Henry pretty much every year of his career. Not that Tannehill's the year before. I'm thinking about Jonathan Taylor last year and Derek Henry pretty much every year of his career. Not that Tannehill's the worst quarterback. Daniel Jones is really, really

bad. But we can have number one fantasy running backs without great quarterbacks playing alongside them. Is it better to have a bad quarterback? It's not. Probably not. Thank you for the question, Greg.

We will move on from Javante Williams. By the way, the three of us really should be getting along, okay, because tomorrow is a huge day. Tomorrow is Stranger Things Day,

and we should all be united in our excitement for Stranger Things Day. I was so excited. I scheduled a Stranger Things marathon tomorrow afternoon with my son. We were going to do this big thing and watch it. And we're going to maybe do it Saturday now.

I'm going to a wedding this weekend. I don't know when I'm going to find the time to watch Stranger Things. Dude, it's going to be a 45-minute show. No, it's not. What, the mail? No, the mailbag tomorrow that we're doing. It's going to be quick. Don't worry about it.

All right. So anyway, let's go to our next guy. You're talking about the Stranger Things finale being 45 minutes. That would be a little... I think it's all told four hours between the two. Yeah. We'll stick with the running backs here. Stick on Dave's list. Heath had Najee Harris on his do-not-draft list, as I mentioned.

Dave had Akers, Javante Williams. Now, not draft list. As I mentioned, Dave had acres, Javante Williams. Now, how about Travis ETN who is going 36th and Dave has him 53rd. Go ahead. I again, am excited about Travis ETN, especially in full PPR,

but round three is just insane to take a guy who may not lead the team and carries. And that's saying something because James Robinson may not be ready for the start of the season. They can't utilize him like a traditional running back. Maybe they can. What the hell do I know? Maybe he goes to camp and he's got more muscle on him and whatever, and he can handle the wear and tear of the position. I think he's going to catch a lot of passes. That's good. I don't know how many touchdowns he's going to end up having. I don't know how many total yards he'll have. He might hit a thousand total yards on the strength of 65

receptions, but I don't see him coming through and finishing as a top 12 type of running back, which is what I think it's close to what I would expect from a running back that's drafted in late round three, maybe top 15 is the expectation. I don't think he gets that high. I think he'll be good. I'm just not taking him in late round three. I like him in early round five, late round four. I think that's well said, and we can move on. We'll take a quick break.

When we come back, we have a lot of wide receivers, some tight ends to talk about. We have one quarterback on the Do Not Draft list from Heath, and we will be right back on Fantasy Football today. What does possible sound like for your business? list from Heath and we will be right back on Fantasy Football today. to reach further with access to over 1400 airport lounges worldwide redefine possible with business platinum that's the powerful backing of american express terms and conditions apply visit amex.ca slash business platinum welcome back quarterbacks on the do not draft list there's just one so by the way this is an incomplete list but but Dave gave me five. Heath gave me five. So far, we have covered three

on Dave's list. Javante Williams, Cam Akers, and Travis Etienne. And only one on Heath's list, and that is Najee Harris. And of course, remember, this is not we hate these players. They stink. It's they're going too early. We're not drafting them anywhere near their current cost, basically. Joe Burrow,

55th overall, Heath. Go for it. When would basically. Joe Burrow, 55th overall, Heath. Go for it. When would you draft Joe Burrow? Around nine. I think he should be drafted as a low-end starting quarterback if you missed all of the elite starting quarterbacks. And he's elite, or was last year for a good portion of last year in terms of efficiency, and he got his team to the

super bowl and but i i just think that and i've said this so many times this offseason but he needs to throw 50 to 60 more passes with the likely statistical regression that's coming just to match what he did last year and last year he was qb9 averaging 23.8 fantasy points per game a full point and a half behind qb5, who was Aaron Rodgers. I just think that even if they throw it four more times a game, you're probably still getting a low-end starting quarterback,

and you shouldn't draft low-end starting quarterbacks in round five. Even if they throw it how many more times per game? Four. Okay. Three to four. If they throw it exactly four, then maybe he could sneak into the top eight so that's really you think his upside is eighth ish joe burrow no i mean if if they came out

and threw the ball 670 times like the chargers do and he ran the ball like Patrick Mahomes, I think he could be QB1. That's what, about 350 rushing yards? Yeah, last year Mahomes had 381 and two touchdowns. Last year Burrow had 118 and two touchdowns. I think that's happening if Joe Mixon misses significant time. But I think that's the only way it happens. They're kind of a slow team, by the way. They were 30th in pace in 2021.

They were 24th in 2020. They were 16th in situation neutral pace in 2020. So they're not like this super fast offense that's going to run a bunch of plays. Ask people who had Joe Burrow on their fantasy teams last year how they liked him going into the late season. And they'll say, eh, he's not bad. He averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game until week 16.

And then, of course, in week 16 and week 17, he put the team on his back. Now, if he did more of that earlier in the year, I think the tenor of the conversation would change. But for so much of last year, he was helping his receivers put up good numbers. He himself was not for fantasy. It was weird.

I agree with you. Round five is ridiculous. Let somebody else take Joe Burrow on the hype of him leading the Bengals to the Super Bowl last year. And because he's a really cool dresser. Well, yeah, I don't understand the ADP. I want to see his fantasy pros ADP.

QB6, man. No, people want to take him because he's cool. I love, well, it's not just that he's cool. It's that he's got two wide receivers that a lot of people have ranked in the top 12 and one of them ranked in the top three. And it's a big selling point here. And he did finish strong.

And here are his past attempts. Here are Burrow's past attempts in his last six games. 46, 39, 34, 37, 38, 33. That's pretty good. If he were to keep up that type of pace, then that would certainly help. Do you think that, what would it take, realistically, not Joe Mixon getting hurt, for him to finish as a top five quarterback?

And you can't say throwing 670 times because I just feel like that's unrealistic too. He would have to be much more efficient. His receivers would have to make even more great plays. He's not going to be much more efficient, right? I mean, that was... Right, he was incredible. Like, he'd have to have otherworldly efficiency. He'd have to throw 40 touchdowns. Let's start with that, right? I mean, that was... Right. He was incredible. Like, he'd have to have otherworldly efficiency.

He'd have to throw 40 touchdowns. Let's start with that, right? I mean, I think... Yes. Close to 40 touchdowns anyway. I kind of can't put that past him. I also think there's more rushing potential. I've talked about that.

I think if you look at his college career, you look at his rookie season, just before the ACL, he was a better rusher than he was than what he was last year he was more like mahomes in that regard and we've had this conversation so many times we can move on um even the most i i i would say like i'm probably the biggest borough guy there's no way i'd take him as qb6 and it's just i don't know i i don't get why people would take him over russell wil Wilson or something like that.

Okay, there's only one tight end on the Do Not Draft list, and that is from Heath, and it is Kyle Pitts going 34th overall. He's your round three Do Not Draft, and you would take him when? Five. I've got Kittle, Pitts, and Waller all in round five. And it's a very similar argument to Joe Burrow. It's a phenomenal talent who was awesome as a young player. But even so, he scored 10.4 PPR fantasy points per game last year. He was behind Zach Ertz and Dawson Knox and well behind TJ Hawkinson. You have to think that he loses nothing in terms of efficiency going from Matt Ryan to Marcus Mariota,

and he catches more passes, and he catches a whole bunch of touchdowns just to justify this ADP. There's a better chance he finishes outside of the top six tight ends than that he makes you a profit in round three. Very well said. Very well said. It's a gamble. You're taking an upside gamble.

The floor for him is 10 PPR points per game, which is what he had last year. And that's with one touchdown. So I think he could beat that. But can he be the could he set records for tight ends in terms of touchdowns? Touchdowns? Yeah. No. But OK, I want to tell you a little story about the 2017 and 2018 San Francisco 49ers. A story that I good. I love story story that I just looked up on Pro Football Reference. In 2017,

the 49ers threw for 4,235 yards. In 2018, they threw for 4,247 yards. We can just say they threw for the same amount of yards year over year. In 2017, George Kittle had 515 yards. In 2018, he had

1,377 yards. So, they did throw for more touchdowns in 2018, and he scored three more touchdowns. But I think if you believe in Kyle Pitts, you don't do the math. You just believe in him. You just believe in him. Does that make sense?

Sure. I like him in round four. So you think there's a realistic chance that he could be better than where he's being drafted? Absolutely. Yes. This year? He could get force-fed enough passes and be worked in the red zone.

It would be a fireball offense if Arthur Miller – Arthur Miller? What the heck? Arthur Smith. If Arthur Smith doesn't put Kyle Pitts on his dance card more often inside of 10 yards. Yeah, I don't think it's so much that.

It's that you're talking about, well, first off, the idea of going from 500 yards to 1,300 yards is much, much easier than going from 1,000 yards to the type of leap Pitts would need to make a profit at this cost.

What about 1300 yards? I think he gets to 1300 yards. Yeah. I think he gets to 1300 yards and not live up to this ADP. Really? 1300 yards. Marcus Mariota has like a career 4% touchdown rate. They might throw 20 touchdown passes again this year.

Yeah. But we've already seen plenty of examples in the last five years or so in the Kittle era of tight ends having elite years with five-ish touchdowns. It's just, you know, the position is not very good. And I think,

I look at catches with him. That's where I think in PPR, what do you think about the catches? Well, I don't think he can maintain the same ADOT and the same yards per catch and see a big increase in catches. The thing that gives him all those yards on a low enough... The reason he broke the record last year, or came close to the record for yards for a tight end,

was because you've talked about it with receivers it's not great to have a huge a dot it's rather to have a middle one yeah um he was a downfield wide receiver he's not going to have a huge catch rate or a huge catch number and i don't think he's going to start running a lot of slants 10.8 a dot that's bad isn't it's high for a tight end isn't it but he's not but that's that's a good what probably has been six to eight it's high for a tight end isn't it but he's not a but that's that's a good what probably has been six to eight it's probably high for a tight end yeah but it but if we're not considering him like he's a different conversation i don't know that's an interesting discussion because 10.8 is what you want from a wide receiver right yeah but

can i drop a stat line on you? Yeah. For Pitts. 71 catches, 910 yards, six touchdowns. Or if you want to take away two touchdowns, make it four touchdowns in the 1,000 yards. No, I've probably got him projected for more than that, I would guess. Okay. Well, that stat line was what Kittle gave you last year, and that was, I mean, he did it in 14 games. Still averaged 13, almost 14 PPR points per game.

Yeah. I got him at 73, 1,018, and five. Well, if he does that, it's not going to be a huge bust in the third round. Right. I think you'll still be happy to have Kyle. Might be a little disappointed. You're going to wish you got him in round five.

Okay. I think you're right. I think in round three, that's a disappointment. In round four, you'll be like, okay, I'll take it. Round five, you'd be excited. So I think the lesson learned is just wait as long as possible to take Kyle Pitts and hope that the guy who's the most excited to take Kyle Pitts in your draft doesn't take him in round three.

So it's hard to say wait as long as possible. The question I'd have is, is the lesson pass on Kyle Pitts and take Waller or Kittle or someone else? Or is it to just draft Kyle Pitts? Obviously I know where Heath would stand. But Dave, if you know, if you know that you have a late round three pick and the,

the other issue is that if you don't take pits in round three or with your early round four pick you're not getting waller or kittle most likely what do you do well what running backs are left on the board i don't know but you already have two i'm trying to make he laugh you you take uh you take dalton schultz that's what you do you take Dalton Schultz, that's what you do. You take Dalton Schultz, or you bite the bullet on Pitts in round four, if he's there, if he makes it to you. All right, let's go to our legacy. Then you'll justify it by saying,

okay, I passed on him on that reach value in round three. I took a good receiver or a decent running back in round three, and now he's there for me in round four. Now I can feel better about it because the guy I would have taken fell back to me six picks later or whatever it is. And Pitts' ADOT was not high

compared to Travis Kelsey. So as long as Marcus Mariota can be as accurate as Travis Kelsey, I think he could be a high catch guy. As Patrick Mahomes. Yeah. Okay. Again,

it's coming at it from a numerical, kind of mathematical standpoint. And then just a blind faith in the talent standpoint is probably going to be where people differ on Kyle Pitts. So let's talk about our wide receivers here. We've got a lot of them. Deontay Johnson is going 36th or 37th, and Dave has him 20 picks later.

CeeDee Lamb for Heath is going 15th. That's too early. DK Metcalf too early. We have four. And by round they are CeeDee Lamb for Heath, Deontay Johnson for Dave, DK Metcalf for Heath, and Amonra St. Brown for Dave.

Any disagreements here? Anybody think the other dude is wrong? Dave takes DK in round four, so I think he thinks I'm wrong. And I've got Deontay in round three in PPR. Yeah, so I think you're wrong on Deontay, and I think I need to kind of change gears on DK. You take Lamb in round two, but not at 15, right? I'm probably taking a running back that slides to 15 over CeeDee Lamb.

I think 15 is a little too early for him. But I do like him, and I do think there's potential for him to have 110 catches this year. He's another one that's just basically in the burrow. All these young guys that have not done it. And then there's the Kellen Moore-Dak history of targeting wide receivers. They just haven't thrown the ball to a number one wide receiver at a 26%, 27% target rate, which I think Lamb will need unless he can somehow start producing like Justin Jefferson or Jamar Chase efficiency, which he just hasn't done

his first two years in the league, or score a bunch of touchdowns, which he also hasn't done. But this is the first time this offense has the receiving core that it has. And I don't blame them in the past for spreading the ball around as much as they did. I think you're going to, it's, it's a little more challenging to say, okay, they're going to continue to spread the ball around when it's James Washington, Jalen Tolbert, a gimpy Michael Gallup, whenever he comes back,

he'll eventually round into form versus Lamb, Cooper, and a healthy Gallup, which is what they had in pockets of last year. It's going to be really fun when they sign Julio. Oh, but something like that would change my opinion on CD Lamb. If they sign

almost anybody worth a damn. Right. I think you've got to really look at the comparison. 2019 season, right? You could to really look at the comparison to the 2019 season. You could maybe throw out 2020 because Dak only played five games. 2021, you had Cooper and Lamb and Gallup for about half the season and Schultz.

2019 is, I guess, what would concern you for CeeDee Lamb. You had Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup. Your third best receiver was Randall Cobb and an aging Jason Witten. And still in that season with Dak Prescott throwing 596 times. That's a lot

in 16 games. Amari Cooper only had 119 targets in 16 games. In fact, Michael Gallup averaged more targets per game, but they were very similar. 119 to 130-ish targets. And then Cobb and Witten were both over 80 83 for both cobb and witten so that's what would probably what concerns heath uh let's talk about deontay johnson because

i thought you both would agree on deontay johnson dave says too early at 37th heath what do you say on deontay i i don't like it and i don't ever actually draft him but I still think right now he's probably going to dominate targets I I really dislike Deontay a lot more in non-PPR and half PPR and full PPR I still think the catches are probably there I don't think he gets the same type of target share uh he's averaged over 10 targets per game the last two seasons I think the Steelers in general throw less than they did last year. It's another nod to Najee in that regard. And when he did get targets, he wasn't efficient with them. His ADOT last year was under nine, which for a wide receiver, you tell me, Heath, is 8.5 good for a wide receiver for ADOT? You had better be doing some things after the catch. Well,

he had a 63 catch rate over the course of the season that's pretty bad in combination with exactly now if his target share goes down and he's if that's what his efficiency is just on that stat alone makes me nervous yeah i mean by yards per target and yards per catch he's one of the least efficient high volume wide receivers in the NFL. That's just a good way to say it. And it could be Ben's fault. My bet is that he doesn't get as many targets.

Ben Schrager's fault? No, it's he talking about Ben's fault, not you. So can't blame this one on Schrager. You're usually the one blaming Schrager for something. Yeah, so how does Deontay Johnson... First of all, would you take Michael Pittman or Deontay Johnson? Pittman.

Pittman. All right, so how does Deontay Johnson... First of all, would you take Michael Pittman or Deontay Johnson? Pittman. Pittman. All right, so how does Deontay Johnson factor into this round four run of wide receivers with some uncertainty, right? DJ Moore, DK Metcalf. Guys, we just don't know what the quarterback situation is going to look like. I take Cortland Sutton there, but he goes a lot later than that. Jalen Waddell, Terry McLaurin. Does Deontay Johnson belong in that group?

He's pretty much at the front of that group. For me, he's behind. DJ Moore is the only wide receiver right now in that group that I would take over him. Okay. I just want to look something up because on Fantasy Pros, Pittman is firmly in that group.

But in NFC, he is not. He is like the bridge. It's like Higgins and Pittman come after the kind of proven stud receivers. And then you get that group. I think Pittman's up to round two in high stakes drafts now. That seems crazy to me. I've got him high round three, but i don't think i'll get him around two yeah i think but i do think i think that there is a like 47 chance 48 chance that michael pitman scores more ppr fantasy points than cd lamb this year what do we think about dk Metcalf he's going 46th overall

I dug into some numbers earlier this offseason on DK Metcalf and how he this just makes sense he does better when the Seattle run game stinks and then when the Seattle run game is good this is last year anyway when the Seattle run game is, there aren't as many passes to go around. He's not nearly as effective. Remember that run that Rashad Penny had last year? It was like a six-game run. He was crazy. DK had one game north of 15 PPR points then, and Russ was playing. They added Ken Walker. They clearly want to still run the football. The quarterback situation's gotten worse. I've got to really turn down on DK Metcalf,

and I've moved him outside of round four in my PPR rankings. I look at him now as an early round five. Shrug your shoulders and say, well, this guy's at least going to play a lot and should lead the Seahawks in targets. I would say if they don't trade for Baker Mayfield, then he is currently overvalued. And if they do trade for Baker Mayfield, then he is currently overvalued. And if they do trade for Baker Mayfield, then he is currently undervalued. What if it's Jimmy Garoppolo and it's not a trade?

I don't think, and I, I could be wrong, but I don't think that Garoppolo skill set will fit as well. I don't, Garoppolo is really good at those underneath throws and the, the short area targets. DK needs somebody that can wing it a little bit.

Yeah, there's another thing. You talked about DK Metcalf in the run game. How about DK Metcalf in the quarterback play? This is, unfortunately, I mean, it's so dramatic that it's hard to expect someone to be good, I guess, when the quarterback play is this bad. But if you look at the last two seasons, the first eight games of the year, he was on pace for nearly 1,700 yards and 17

touchdowns. Okay. DK Metcalf was a star. He was probably wide receiver one or two in those eight games. And Russell Wilson was on pace for 5,400 yards and 60 touchdowns. The last eight games of the year, Russell Wilson struggled. He was on pace, a-game pace of 3,551 yards and 26 touchdowns. And Metcalf actually put up decent numbers, except for the touchdowns. 85 catches, 1,094 yards, and four touchdowns. I feel like that's pretty encouraging, because that is some bad quarterback play.

And 85 catches, 1,094 yards, four touchdowns. If that goes up to six, I mean, that's basically DJ Moore, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. So there is that. And then in the first four games of 2021, Metcalf was great. Wilson was great.

In the next five games, which were three with, I eliminated the Rams game. He was good in the, he was very good in the Rams game. It was like half with Wilson. It's a hard exercise to do, I'm sorry. Half with Geno Smith. He was very good in the Rams game. It was like half with Wilson. It's a hard exercise to do. I'm sorry.

Half with Geno Smith. He was very good in that game. He had two touchdowns and 98 yards. The next five games, he stunk. Actually, I guess he didn't. Yeah, he stunk. He just was on pace for 10 touchdowns. He was on pace for 864 yards.

That was three with Geno Smith, two with Russell Wilson, and Wilson was terrible his first two games back. Then you get these last seven games. On pace for 801 yards and 10 touchdowns. Wilson was on pace for 3,762 yards and 36 touchdowns. So not very good except for the touchdowns. But also remember, Metcalf was playing hurt. He had a foot injury that he didn't really talk about,

but he did have surgery, right? Or did he not have surgery? But. He had a foot injury that he didn't really talk about, but he did have surgery, right? Or did he not have surgery? But he definitely had a foot injury. So one thing you notice is that for the most part, the touchdowns were there, but that might just be a Russell Wilson thing. But yeah, I mean,

there was not a lot of upside when the quarterback, there was not a lot of yardage upside when the quarterback was bad. He was kind of like, best case scenario was like dj moore basically and i expect kind of bad quarterback play and you know unless it's mayfield and then you might get you might get a steal and that's another thing for those of you drafting in the scott fishbowl keep that in mind with metcalf and dj moore maybe the two players most likely to have a quarterback upgrade between now and the

start of the season you might get a steal on them in the Scott Fish Bowl or any early draft. But I don't know if that was interesting to you at all, but obviously, a big surprise, DK Metcalf ebbed and flowed with the play of his quarterbacks. But what's really interesting is that over the last two years, the Seahawks have had pockets of incredible quarterback play and pockets of really bad quarterback play.

It haven't had much in between. There's going to be a lot more pockets of bad quarterback play. Even if it's Baker, even if it's Garoppolo, it's going to happen. They're downgrading there. And their starting tackles are rookies. And their defense isn't as good. And they want to run the football.

They want to run the football. They're still treating the NFL like They want to run the football. They're, they're still treating the NFL like it's like turn of the century. And I mean like to 2000, not to like 1900s or whatever. Last year, Pittman had 88 catches, 1,082 yards and six touchdowns.

So just over 13 PPR points per game. That might be where DK lands. 13.4. Okay. Uh, I am. lands. 13.4. Okay. I am... Oh, Amonra St. Brown. Anything to add on Amonra St. Brown? End of round five?

Just the situation's completely different than where it was last year. The target volume is going to be way down with everybody healthy now. And not to mention added DJ Chark's there now. He's going to get targets. Whenever Jameson Williams gets healthy, he will have targets.

DeAndre Swift, I think he's going to get a bucket of targets every single game. I do not see him. He could be okay as a number three receiver in full PPR, but I'm not drafting him anywhere near where people are taking him now. Which is 57th overall for

Amonra St. Brown. It's a round five pick. Okay. There's a round five pick. Okay. There's a new segment called Obligated to Talk About Mark Andrews because I put him on the thumbnail. I did the thumbnail before I had your list of players. So Mark Andrews... You just put Mark Andrews

assuming that somebody would not want to draft. I thought Dave would not take Mark Andrews in round two. What's his ADP? 21st. It's really close to where I'd be okay taking him. So I can't say that I wouldn't take him at 21st. But I don't think he's going to be anywhere near as good as he was last year. So I put him on the thumbnail because he goes much earlier than that,

I feel like, in our CBS analyst draft. Yeah, because Heath takes him. Yeah. Somebody takes him. It's just me. You know, top 18. Keith, where are you taking Mark Andrews?

13. Yeah. See, that's why I was put you in Mark Andrews on the thumbnail. Yeah. Me and Mark Andrews holding hands, talking about how much fun last year was and getting ready to run it back, getting ready to run it back to what he did in 2020.

Maybe. They're not taking them around too. If that's the case. Yeah. Right. Well, getting ready to run it back. Getting ready to run it back to what he did in 2020, maybe. Better not take him in round two if that's the case. Yeah, right. Well, except he's going to be really good for a tight end. He's just not going to be as productive as other players

that you could draft in that round two range, especially in early round two. Okay, I will say that... Hold on. Before I make a fool of myself. No, you know what? I'm going to do it. I'm going thank you if mark andrews i need somebody to move his adp down a little bit

please if mark andrews just does what he did in 2020 kyle pitts will definitely be better than mark andrews this year it's possible it really is um he averaged 12.2 ppr points per game in 2020 so if kyle pitts does exactly what he did last year and scores five more touchdowns then he will be the same as mark andrews in 2020 so that's 12.2 he scored 10 he was 10 point something and five more touchdowns would be two more fantasy points per game so he'd be within a couple of tenths yes so they would be closer together then no he pits will be better than 12.2 ppr fantasy points per game but andrews will also andrews will be better than he was he wasn't really that good in 2020 average 50 yards per game he was better in 2020 in 2019 and obviously much better in 2021 when they threw the ball a ton.

What do you make of this? What do you think is more likely for Andrews? Let me get this stat real quick. Do we know the status of Nick Boyle? Here are the percentage... I don't see how that's going to be a factor. Percentage of his team's receiving yards

per game last three seasons. 27%, 25%, no, 27%, 27.5%, 32%. They're going to throw less. They're going to want to throw less. They're not going to be in this weird situation where their defense isn't delivering and their run game isn't delivering

and they're forced to throw. And he was good with Lamar Jackson. He was better without Lamar Jackson. Much better. It's crazy. It's crazy how many targets he got without Lamar Jackson. Yeah, 29%.

Maybe they learned from it in Baltimore and they said, okay, Mark Andrews has to be on the field every single play. He's going to be the number one receiver. We're going to treat him like a number one receiver from here on out.

We're going to treat him like the Chiefs treat Travis Kelsey. Now, if they do that, then he's going to look really good. But then there's still the offensive philosophy thing. Now, John Harbaugh says that he takes it on a game-to-game basis, but I think that's bull. I think that they would prefer to be physical and have a good run game and lean on that to help them win. And not to mention, that takes advantage of Lamar Jackson's very best skill, which is moving. I will just say I do not believe that both the narrative that Mark Andrews is going to regress back fully to 2019,

or 2020, worse than 2019. Yeah. And J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are both going to be terrible at the start of the year because they're not fully recovered. Those two things I don't think can both be true. Yeah, I completely agree. I do too. And I don't think that Andrews is going to be equal to 2020.

I think he'll be better than 2020, but he's not 17 points per game. That's where he was in 2021. What do I have him projected for? That's a good question, Dave. This will give you an opportunity. I didn't ask you. Everybody can laugh at Heath. 268.56 divided by 17.

15.8. That's a tight end worth an early second round pick can I tell you guys something weird? but I don't think he's getting there I'm trying to look up who the Ravens drafted oh my god you're going to be looking at Isaiah Likely they drafted two tight ends

in the fourth round and a center in the first round and a safety in the first round I think we should definitely start making the argument that one of those rookie tight ends is going to take target share from our hackers. No, that's not it. It's just the idea that they're offseason. They might combine to take 2%.

Trading their number one wide receiver, drafting two tight ends, using a first round pick on a center, says we want to run the ball more. But if you go, for whatever reason, this is happening right now. You know what?

I can probably share the screen if I do it on this computer. Oh, please let him mess up and show something embarrassing. If you sort the draft by team, let me see if it happens here. Yeah. How weird is this? Okay. Share screen.

Share tab. Draft. Can we take Schrager and ask him how ready. All right. Can you guys, can we see the screen? I'm looking at the screen. Okay.

Oh, you did it. Okay. Ready? So I sorted by team. Atlanta's one Baltimore should be too, right? Atlanta,

Buffalo, Carolina, Chicago, Cincinnati. I know where it's going to stop in the eyes. It's in the L's. The L's? I would have guessed the I's. It should be right on the I's because...

Why? What am I missing? It's after the Rams. Rams, Baltimore. So the Rams, hmm. That's interesting because they, I would think in this circumstance, the Rams would be in the S's.

The Rams are, the Ravens are in, Baltimore is in between Los Angeles and Los Angeles. Everything is alphabetical pretty much, except Baltimore. Well, Los Angeles is, I wonder,

are all of these teams, because all three of those teams did not start out where they currently are. Are they at the bottom, all of them? No. Bottom is Washington, Tampa, San Francisco, Seattle. Huh.

So it's just somewhere in the middle they put the teams that... Because the Chargers should be in the S's if the Ravens aren't going to be in the B's. Hey, Adam, we've helped pro football reference before. I don't understand this. Maybe we can help them out again. That's right. The reason you have 17 game paces instead of 16 game paces is Dave Richard.

And that's a really cool tool, by the way, for those of you who don't know. If you go to Pro Football Reference, which is just a great website, go to Pro Football Reference, go to a player's game logs, and go to a player to players game logs and you can select a date range and get

17 game paces based on those date ranges top 20 for sure it looks intimidating when you first go there but it's kind of intuitive you can figure your way out and if you want to look up just any specific player here's another tip from your pal Dave you type in the player's name and then the words pro ref

and the first link that comes up in google when you google it is uh the page you're looking for thankfully i never delete any of my cookies and so if i type a player's name in the search bar one of the things that pops up is their reference page because i went to it sometime in the past i love cookies yeah i was gonna say it's's almost the weekend. I've got an ice cream cake waiting for me. I'm trying to be just a weekend ice cream guy. We're going to tear into that. Why do you have an ice cream? Whose birthday is it?

It was my birthday. It's my leftover birthday cake from Father's Day. It's a two-week-old ice cream cake. Yeah. Every weekend, I'm making some progress. Adam likes his birthday cake like Jamie likes his tight ends. Great or late?

All right, we're going to end the show here. We have a mailbag on Friday that's going to air on YouTube on Friday right away. YouTube.com slash fantasyfootball today. And the mailbag will air in the podcast feed on Monday, on 4th of July. So we will talk to you tomorrow with the top five players we are worried about being wrong about.

Fun topic for you. That'll be Jamie and Dan Schneider. Yes, worried about being wrong about. We'll figure it out at some point during the show. Thanks a lot for listening. Everybody, we'll talk to a while. See ya.