Fantasy Football Today - Do These Seventeen Stats MATTER? (07/22 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 22, 2026

Adam Aizer, Jamey Eisenberg, and Dave Richard reveal 17 must-know fantasy football stats that could shape your draft strategy, starting with news and notes (2:43) before diving into whether Jahmyr Gibbs late-season workload raises any concerns (7:49). Dave examines Christian McCaffrey's health outlook after another massive campaign (21:23), while Jamey compares the 2025 finishes for Jalen Coker and Tetairoa McMillan to shape your draft strategy (30:13). The wide receiver conversation continues with Tee Higgins production alongside Burrow & Chase (44:24), followed by a reminder of Terry McLaurin's upside with Jayden Daniels at QB (50:30). The episode wraps up with a surprising look at Wan'Dale Robinson ranking among the league leaders in targets/game (59:20) and a deep dive into De'Von Achane's dramatic splits with/without Tua Tagovailoa in the lineup (1:10:43).Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcastsWatch FFT on YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

This is fantasy football today from CBS sports. What a play! Can you believe this? It's a no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Up to the races and he stays on his feet. It's just going to go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.

And welcome to fantasy football today. Stat attack for you today on Wednesday, July 22nd. Adam is here with Dave Richard and Jamie Eisenberg. And I was thinking, yeah, we'd probably get about eight, nine stats to throw out you. Do these stats matter? How many do you think we have, guys? 15. 17.

17 stats that might matter. I think most of them will matter. I would have counted them and then been right on 17. You counted them? I could have. Yeah, I also numbered them. I just guesstimated. I numbered them in the notes too.

So you could have just looked at that. That would require looking at the notes. It would, yeah. So we got stats on Jemir Gis. Jameson Williams, Christian McCaffrey, Jalen Coker, Drake London, Gary Wilson, T. Higgins, Michael Wilson, Terry McLaren, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, Wando, Robinson, past caching running backs, Devon, A. Chan, top five running backs, tight ends. I think that was 17. Team 8 wide receivers. Anyway, good morning, guys. We have a CBS Sports Network show at noon tomorrow. I said one o'clock on Tuesday's show is actually noon Eastern tomorrow. We're on CBS Sports Network. So our podcast will be a little bit earlier, 9.30 a.m. How many people's schedules did you? You just mess up.

Very sorry. You'll have to take a later lunch now. Since I want to get to all 17 of these stats, let's go through the news and notes pretty quickly here. Sam Leporta, great news. He was fully cleared for training camp after a herniated disc in his back. Disc. You said disc. I said disc.

Yes. I really thought I said disc. But it herniated. And anyway, he's back. He's good to go. That's great news. Sam Leporta is tight end. blank in your rankings.

Five. Wow. I think he's sixth for me. Wow. Sam LaFerner is tied in eight in Fantasy Pro's ADP going 80 second overall. But right after Tucker Kraft, we'll see if Ann Harold Fanon Jr., they're basically tied. Okay, next note is that- Have you ever herniated your disc?

I currently have a herniated disc in my back, yes. I've been herniating my disc since I was like 19. It's fun. It's awesome being fat. Oh, I don't even know where we're going right now. James Boyd of the Athletic thinks that... I didn't know where we were starting when you started talking about created discs.

And I didn't hear disc. Hey, all right. James Boyd of the Athletic thinks that Jonathan Taylor could be a training camp hold in. We don't like that. We don't. I said disc. I don't know. I'm not 100% shooting.

Have you heard that? producer let's ask our producer sam sam what did i you just say yes or did i say disc uh i did not hear disc i got to be oh thank you sam i think he heard three of those letters i got to edit that out oh gosh totally unintentional uh Carolina so let's talk about carolina jamie right tackle taylor moate we're just going to skip over john and taylor being a hold in well he's not a hold in yet he might hold in but if he does it's going to suck yeah it is a problem can't love them as much as we unless the holden lasts like a week or something right pay jonathan taylor please think i mean if there is is there there obviously are but like he's up there like in terms

of player having leverage for wanting more money for sure like he's he's got to be top five of that list yeah well yeah uh he's not on today's show so we'll come back to jonathan taylor some other time how about taylor motin the right tackle for carolina so hopefully he gets better, but he's out indefinitely and it looks like he's going to miss time in the regular season with a blood clot in his lung. And already their left tackle, Ikea Kwan, who had a knee injury that he suffered in the playoff game, so he's probably not going to be there for the start of training camp. They have Rashid Walker, who was a three-year starter for the Packers.

They signed him in the offseason. They drafted rookie Monroe Freeling in the first round. So I guess there's some depth at tackle, but really not. Yeah, it's not. I mean, for both of your starting tackles to be outright. now and probably into the season, at least certainly with Taylor Moten, or it seems that way. That's not good, Dave.

Not good, Bob. It's not good for anybody in this offense. You can certainly look at the run game and start worrying about what it means for Chuba or for Jonathan Brooks, but also think about Bryce Young. And I can double check the numbers, but I don't remember him having good stats when he's pressured. That's most quarterbacks, but him especially, just not good when he's pressured. might mean he has to get the ball out faster, could limit the offense, could really lower

the upside for all the wide receivers that are there. This is one to watch. This is something to be very, very aware of as we entered training camp season. And Arizona offensive lineman, Isaiah Adams, who could be a starter for them, he's facing weapon charges in Canada. Also a note from Ian Rappaport, the Cardinals do think they agree that Jacoby Peret deserves a raise. and just a matter of getting that number

and getting that contract sign. Not as the same type of leverage as John the Taylor, but just not as high on the list for obvious reasons. Parker Gabriel of the Denver Post thinks that the Broncos are going to play a lot of three receiver and four receiver sets. That's fun. Alec Lewis of the Athletic says that the Vikings are still optimistic about Max Brosmer. I only bring this up if you're in maybe a dynasty league,

a superflex dynasty league. There might still be. Oh, please start training camp already if we're talking about Max Brosmer. And Miami rookie wide receiver Chris Bell is on the NFI non-football injury list. He tore his ACL last year at Louisville. Red shirt season incoming. I don't know about that. I hope I'm wrong because he's super talented.

He can be really good. But there's no reason for the dolphins to rush him in what will be a rebuilding year. Yeah. And if you get hurt, even if it's a football injury, if it happens in college, you'll go on the non-football. football injury list. All right, do these stats matter? I have them ordered 1 through 17. Here we go.

We're going to start with... You rank them? No, this one I think can be quick. A stat on Jemir Gibbs, which was inspired by an email I got someone saying, like, I'm a lion's fan. I'm sorry if I try to look up the name of the emailer. I'm a lion's fan, but I got to tell you, I'm a little worried about Jemir Gibbs because he thought he wore down at the end of last season.

So the stat is after scoring 55.4 PPR fantasy points against. the Giants in Week 12, Jemir Gibbs averaged only 3.1 yards per carry in six games. He averaged 18 fantasy points per game in those six games. But if maybe the only concern that we might have about Jemir Gibbs is can he handle the full workload, does this stat matter that he struggled down the stretch averaging 3.1 yards per carry? I think it speaks to where the offensive line was. I think it speaks to him having to adjust to being the full-time guy,

which I'm sure he spent some time this offseason. Remember the conversation we had with Scott Turner yesterday about what they tend to tell players about their bodies, you know, in terms of what they want, you know, adding more muscle, losing more body fat, etc. I'm sure those conversations had about what he needs to do to get himself in better shape if that's it. But I'm sure it's just a combination of everything,

of where the Lions were, where Gibbs was compared to where he probably is now. And let's face it, as much as we want to just sit here and say he's getting every touch, they're going to use Isaiah Pacheco, they're going to use other running backs, they're going to give him opportunities to take breaks. It's not just going to be like he's walking in and becoming Derek Henry. He's still going to have somebody to share with to whatever degree I think obviously is Pacheco. But I have no concerns.

I mean, you know, again, like when you look at the two guys at the top, it's very clear that there's going to be only two running backs drafted in the first five picks. I shouldn't say first five because McAfric still get drafted. But the top two running backs on everybody. his rank list. Sir Jemir Gibbs and Bijon Robinson. Both guys are going to share to some degree. Both guys, in Robbins' case,

has proven that he can be the workhorse guy. And I think Gibbs is going to prove that he could be that guy, too. Okay. I'm not concerned because just the year before, last year he had 155 carries in weeks one through 12. So how could he have worn down from weeks 13 on? The year before, he had 154 carries in weeks one through 12, almost exactly the same.

and he averaged 5.5 yards per carry in his last six games. So I don't think the workload got to him. But the email was a good one and a good point to bring up from Fitz in Detroit. Thank you, Fitz for that. All right. Next stat is Jamie's stat on Jameson Williams. What do you got on Jamo? I mean, we've talked about this.

It was just kind of reiterating where he was with Leporta without Leporta. So the first nine games of the season. And really it's there's that two-game window before Leporta left, where it was after their by week. and that's when we started to see Dan Campbell calling plays and we started to see Jameson take a spike. But if you just look at the number, I don't have in front of me.

So if you look at the numbers that he had, okay, sir, so with Leporta healthy, 10.9 fantasy points per game, 4.8 targets per game. That's really the number that's a little concerning. Without Leporta, 15.2 fantasy points per game, 7.4 targets per game. Again, the coaching changed in terms of who was calling plays. So Dan Campbell taking over play calling really helped Jameson wins,

but I think the biggest boost was obviously without Sam Leporta there. So as you said to start the show, Leporta healthy, no issues going into training camp. I think that just gets to put a little bit of a damper on Jameson Williams. And the thing to keep in mind with him,

yes, he's finished as a top 20 fantasy receiver each of the last two years. But you're going to get those spike games. And when he has those spike games, you're going to be thrilled. When he has, he had two games, one in the first half of the season, one in the second half of the season.

He got you under one fantasy point in PPR. Did not have a catch in either of those two games. So just keep in mind that there's going to be some down weeks when everybody's there. Again, new play caller, Drew Petsing, we'll see how much that impacts what the tight end play is because was it really mostly a Trey McBride thing or is that a Kevin Sinfansky-Tree thing

for where Petsing comes from, like Sleen on his tight ends. I think James, if you treat him as a good number three receiver, a high-end number three fantasy receiver, you're in great shape. If you're drafting him to be a consistent week-in, week-out starter, you might be a little bit disappointed if everybody stays healthy.

this that definitely matters again 4.8 targets with Leporta 7.4 targets without Leporta but I'm glad you mentioned the change in the two games before Loporta's injury and one of the stats that I throw in with that is that in those first seven games when James and Williams on pace for 73 targets um in those seven games that's horrible he had a 17 yard a dot in the next two games after the buy he had a 10 yard a dot so they obviously That's when the play caller change happened. Right, and that's huge. Obviously, they were using him in different ways.

The route depth was similar, but the targets were much different. So I always look at J-M-O, is he needs to have a lower A-DOT. He is not going to be effective as just this field stretcher guy, and he can do a lot of things. Dave, your take on this split with Leporta and with James and Williamson. Let me just throw one last thing in there. In the last, I want to say eight games of 2024. Everyone was healthy pretty much. Leporta missed one game, but pretty much everyone was healthy.

And JMO had a 19.7% target share and Leporta had an 18.4% target share. So I know the Leporta camp is saying the Porta completely dominated targets compared to JMO this year, or like 2025. But it wasn't necessarily the case in 2024. Okay, go ahead. There's been 24 games when Leportas had at least six targets. Jamo's been a non-factor in all but. but five of those 24 games. So 19 out of 24 games where Jamo hasn't been great for fantasy.

Scares me on Jameson Williams. However, I agree with Jamie. I think if you draft Jamo as a number three wide receiver, kind of, let's put the boom bus sash over his shoulder and say that there will be weeks where he's going to get you 20 PPR points on five catches. And then the next week it's 8.7 on four catches or three catches. And you're just going to have to take your lumps. better in best ball at this point than in redraft leagues.

And I was towing with the idea of, okay, could I draft Leporta and Jamo to the same team and kind of handcuff them? And I don't think you really can because their ADP is fairly similar. And I just don't think that it's worth it to get Leporta and Jamo and hope that one is good each week. And when you're probably going to be starting both. So I don't like that idea either. The one thing that might be in everybody's favor, you talked about this yesterday, Adam, is the safeties are banged up.

They just lost the cornerback. So we saw this in 2023. We saw it in 2024. We saw it in 2025. You know, whenever these guys start to miss time in the secondary, Hutchinson factored in there as well when he would broke his leg. Like there's a lot of room for Jared Gop to throw when this defense is this bet. How many career games have Leporta and JMO had six plus targets in?

And remember, they've been teammates now for three seasons. Seven. Right. So he missed eight games last year. There's been probably... Probably not that many. I'll say 15 combined games that they've missed.

It's... Yeah, right. Three. 15 missed games over three seasons. So there's probably been five games. Are they both that six plus? It's actually 10 career games when both have had six plus targets. That doesn't necessarily mean that they've both been great at the same time.

Right. Yeah. Okay. Let's take a break. We've got a teammate wide receiver stats. that it really makes me think a lot. Yeah. We'll be right back on fantasy football today.

So last season, we had, what, two teammates, Dave, that finished top 12 per game, the Rams guys and the Cowboys guys? Sounds right. Yeah, the Bengals guys did not quite do that. Just short for Cincinnati's. But tell us what we need to know about repeat success of finishing top 10 or top 12 per game for teammate-wide receivers. The off-season listeners have heard this one before. So welcome to everybody that took off the offseason and it's just now joining FFT for the lead up to training camp.

From 2014 through 2024, there were 17 wide receiver teammates that finished top 12 in PPR points per game. Of those 17 duos, just one repeated as top 12 in PPR points per game. And that was the Vikings combo of Stefan Diggs and Adam Thielen way back. I think it was 2017 and 2018. There have been four others that repeated in the top. 15, and that includes Jamar and T last year for Cincinnati. But otherwise, there is not a great track record. And the impetus to look this up was CD Lamb and George Pickin specifically ranked as top 12 wide receivers.

And when I read this stat and I thought about it, it made me nervous to rank them both highly to begin with. But I still have them both top 12. Part of it is because I just don't love a lot of wide receivers to be on that elite tier this year. I think I like Lamb better. I think he's safer than Pickens. It makes me nervous to take Pickins as a top 20 pick. Blows my mind. 17 wide receiver teammates finishing top 12 per game and only one of them repeating.

Right. The makings are there for the Cowboys to do it, right? But I'm sure we felt that way about a lot of the 17. The Rams guys, we don't expect Adams to be top 12 again. No, we're not drafting that at all. But look at the ADP. for, and it's not just the, it's all, it's the Bengals guys. And the ADP isn't that bad for T. Higgins.

But we're really, the general public is really into the Cowboys wide receivers. So I think it's, I think it's a little bit of a mistake. On top of it, Jamie brought up the defense for Detroit and how they're getting worse. This defense for Dallas is going to be considerably better this year. They'll have Quinn and Williams for the full season. They've added like four to five new stars. It might be more than that at them. But this Dallas defense should, at least on paper, be a hell of a lot better than where they were last year,

which means fewer track meets for the Cowboys. What was it? It was four of the 17 the following year, finished top 15? 15, yeah. So Pickens is going right around wide receiver 10, depending on which ADP you look like. You look at. If he's, if they're both top 15 and you're taking Pickens five receivers ahead of where he finishes, but all those other guys are round two picks, let's just say,

or the 20 through 28, let's just say, an ADP. Is that a loss? It's a small loss. I mean, it also depends on how consistently is, what that point total is. Like, if he's wide receiver 15, but it's 16 points per game, no one's really going to be that upset.

Both are, how many, Jamie? 16 PPR points per game. Then they're both going to be top 12, I think. I would think. It'd be hard, yeah. if it's a year where all the wide receivers bounce back. So Lamb is 17 points per game and Pickens is 14 points per game. I mean, I guess I shouldn't say that.

You're right. Based on last year, 16 is a high number. Based on the previous year, 16 would be around wide receiver 15 or so. So I shouldn't have dismissed that. And by the way, we're talking about this. Like C.D. Lamb is guaranteed to be better than Pickens, which I don't think is the case, right? I mean, Pickens could definitely be better. But he was more consistent when the two were on the field together.

but he was worse, at least in the last 10 games or whatever it is. All right. It's something to think about. It was close. It was close. Two of the two. Next stat is Dave's Christian McCaffrey stat, which, yes, we've heard, but it's worth repeating. It really comes down to just how many touches he had last year was 450.

17 running backs have had 400 or more touches in a season since 2010. Ten of them followed up their 400 touch year with an injury, a PPR, per game decline of at least 20% or both. And that's about 60% of the sample. And that includes Sequin Barkley from last year. Remember, Sequin had that monster, 2024, it's 2025, just not as good. Four of the 17 running backs were close enough to their previous year's PPR per

game average to make fantasy and managers feel good about them. And then three of them were actually better than the year where they had 400 plus touches. But of those seven, four that were about as good, three that were better, just two of them were 28 years or older. We know that Christian McCaffrey's 30 years old. We also know that in his previous two seasons when he had 400 plus touches, the year after he suffered a significant injury that took him off the field for quite a while. One season in one case, two seasons in another case.

I am nervous to draft Christian McCaffrey where he's going at ADP. See, I actually look at your stat kind of optimistically on Christian McCaffrey. So you've got 17 running backs with 400 plus touches in a season since 2010. and 59% of the sample either got hurt or declined by at least 20%. So you got seven, though, seven of the 17 did well, right? Either did better than the previous year or did close enough, where fantasy managers were fine. If you take those seven and then you add in the ones that lost 20%,

I don't know how many that is, but no, we're probably over half now. If he loses 20% of his production from last year, he's averaging 20 points per game. So I think there's enough, like, it seems like there's a better than 50% chance he averages 20 points per game. I think it's the latter part of what Dave said that should make you the most nervous is that we have three seasons of him with over, two season, three seasons. It's two with 400, three with 350. Right. So the two with over four touches and one, he was young, and that's the one that Dave was referencing, where it was, he missed, he played 10 games the next two seasons combined after his first season with over 400. total touches.

And that was in Carolina. And so I think the biggest issue is, is like, we have a recent example of this, 2023 going into 2024 when he was limited to four games. It's just so nerve-wracking when it comes to he's now 30. He's done this now multiple times. The history is not on his side here. So, like, if this was never having happened before, then I think Adam, you're right on saying, okay, maybe he,

he cannot, maybe he doesn't fall into this trap, but he's fallen to this trap. I know. Some people just don't care. Some people just look at it as fluky stuff. Oh, I mean, listen, we went through this with Barclay last year. You know, we gave every example of why this could fail. And I think the biggest thing that didn't happen was he stayed healthy. Right.

Or it didn't get hurt, excuse me. Because that was the concern for these guys when they have this much work. But, like, again, like, we gave every example of touches, 2,000 yard rushers, all these things, and Barclay took such a huge step back. And so, yes, you can ignore it. It's totally fine. But, like, there's so many red flags. It was almost a 40% decline on a PPR per game average for Barclay. Yeah, it's bad.

All right, let's go to our next bat. So 20% is, like, the minimum. So, like, the ceiling for McCaffrey could be staying healthy. he does find 20 ppr points per game, but the floor is zero. I guess you could say the floor is zero for everybody, but I think it's a little bit more elevated for Christian McCaffrey, given his history, given his age. I just think these are things you need to know before you draft McCaffrey. I'm not saying that he's going to be a total bust and don't take him unless it's round two.

I still have him as a first round pick in my rankings, but I'm just not taking him where other people are taking him. I understand. If 41% of the running backs in this sample with these massive workloads were, close to as good as they were last year or better, then I don't think it's fair to say that his ceiling is 20% worse of what he was last year. So, I don't know. Okay, sorry. I wish.

I hope that we get the clear-cut handcuff because that'll make people a little bit, I think, more comfortable when you draft McCaffrey knowing, okay, it's Jordan James or it's Kaelin Black, you know, who's going to be that guy. Seems like it's going to be Jordan James, but just certainly a storyline to follow in training camp. Stat number five, here's a stat about tight ends. If you draft McBride or Bowers at the two, three turn, how many fantasy points? I'll ask you guys,

how many fantasy points do you think they need to score to justify that? Average. How many do they need to average? At least 16. Okay, good. That's the number I came up with. So I looked at all of the tight ends over the last... That's 16 points per game, not for the season.

Yeah. All of the tight ends in the last 10s, seasons who average 16 or more PPR fantasy points per game. There were 11 of them. Five of them were Travis Kelsey and no other tight end has repeated. No other tight end has done it twice, 16 PPR fantasy points per game. Every single team that those tight ends were on, those 11 tight ends, every single team that they were on through for at least 251 yards per game, which is about 4,250 yards.

nine of them through 28 or more touchdown passes. Now, I made this same argument last year against Trey McBride because I didn't think the Cardinals could possibly throw for 4,250 yards or 28 touchdowns. Well, they did because they led the NFL in pass attempts. They threw for 4,326 yards and 29 touchdowns. So it's always possible. But as you sit here and you look at the Cardinals passing game

and you look at the Raiders passing game, isn't it hard to see them, Jamie, throwing for 250 yards, throwing 28 touchdowns? Because pretty much every tight end who has scored 16 points per game of the last decade has been on that kind of team. I mean, you could see it happening for the Cardinals just because of what just happened a year ago and how their, you know, season may unfold. The difference is that there's a new head coach now and a much, much, much, much improved run game. You know, so I would say, no, I don't see that happening. The Raiders probably the same thing because I don't think they want to be that past.

happy, especially however many games, Fernando Mendoza starts. Why would you want to put that on a rookie and make him go through that with, you know, still a lot of questions and what the passing game could be? That said, you're talking about two tight ends that could easily lead their team in targets. One already did it last year by a significant margin. I think the other one would have done it, or I'm sorry, he did do it, but targets per game, at least. These two are unicorns, you know, and what they offer now.

Again, the question becomes, do you see that happening? don't, there's a very strong two or three tiers after those guys that you should be very interested in, you know, Colston, Loveland, Tyler Warren, those type of guys, Kyle Pitts, Isaiah likely, you know, wherever you want to stop the list going, you know, including Travis Kelsey and George Kittle, you know, toward the bottom of that. But like, these two could absolutely smash in terms of Bowers and McBride. I think Bowers has an easier path to doing it because of who's around him. But look, McBride already. showed you that he could do it. I just don't think we're getting that much target opportunities for

him and certainly that much volume in the passing game. I think that's the biggest decline for the Cardinals. Yeah, it's tough. It's a case against them, but I don't want to be too negative on McBride and Bowers. I certainly think I've had stats like this before in the past that I thought were so good and so compelling, and then someone just goes and breaks it, breaks the trend the next year, because that's how these things work. So, for example, Jackson Smith and Jigba last year, if you had told me the Seahawks were going to be one of the lowest past volume teams in the NFL, I would have said there's no way Jackson Smith and Jibba could have a great season. Maybe you can finish as wide receiver 8 or 10 or something, but not that good.

So it does happen. But yeah, it's not a great, just think about the quality of offense for those tight ends, and it might be hard to see that for Bowers and McBride. All right, Jamie, let's talk about, you know, I was thinking Tenor-M McMillan would be a good, good player for this episode, and then you came through with this Jalen Coker slash McMillan stat. What do you got there? So the last five games, including the playoffs, the targets were almost identical, six

per game for Coker, 6.2 per game for McMillan, and the fantasy production was not the same. Both had some spike games in there, both had a dud game in there as well, about 14.1 ppr points per game for Jalen Coker, 9.8 ppr points per game for Teterola McMillan. I did like, I think I didn't see who reported, so I apologize, but about moving maybe McMillan more in the slot this year, so giving them some opportunities to move around. I think that's encouraging,

you know, give them some different opportunities, different looks, different mismatches. But we started the show talking about, about the offensive line concerns for the Panthers. Bryce Young clearly is not the type of quarterback, at least what he's shown so far, that feels like he's going to help his receiver, and in the case McMillan could be exceptional, get better to a degree where it's like, oh, okay,

he'll overcome some of these things because his quarterback is so great. I just don't think that's Bryce Young. So they add another receiver in Brazzle, who they drafted, who I think is more of a field stretcher. But Coker, one of the best values you can get late in your drafts, and McMillan, I think, might be a little over. overrated. So I'm not drafting him in round three. If he's sitting there middle to the end, around four, I'll take him. I just don't think he's going to be there. I would rather just wait

and see if I get Jalen Coker and what that production looks like. It's not going to be McMillan, but again, there is a sample size last five games of the year when they were making a playoff push and a playoff game against the Rams where Jalen Coker was better than Teterowell McMillan. Yeah, and McMillan had only a 21% target share in those five games compared to 27% target share in the first 12 games of the season. One other thing, they just, they ran, I think they ran the fewest plays in football in that stretch that you're talking about the last five games of the season.

If not the fewest, it was the second fewest. They just had a really bad environment for offense. They were throwing about 27 and a half, 27 pass attempts per game for Bryce Young. So no one was going to do well there. Dave, how much does this matter to you, the fact that Jalen Koker outperformed Tetaro-McMillan? And neither of them were really all that good.

I mean, neither of them were all that targeted. down the stretch. It makes me want to only draft McMillan at a good value compared to ADP, and it makes me want to target Jalen Coker with a middle of the late round pick. The worry that I've got is that neither one could be particularly awesome for fantasy, and they just end up being dregs in my lineup or stones on my bench where they're just not going to be able to help me out that much. I'm very worried about just the overall offensive environment in Carolina. But to Jamie's point, like the stats between those two receivers in those last five games are eerily identical. And in some cases, it favors Koker.

And that makes me a little bit nervous about just buying into the hype of Teta Rua McMillan. At the same time, those were not the first five games that Jalen Koker played that season. And they weren't even the first five games with a normal snapshot. They just, you know, before that, he was barely targeted. So you're taking a small sample basically of Koker and McMillan, and then you're sort of cutting it in half. And we can run into problems when we do that. Of course. Going into his second year, you'd think he had a lot of, sorry, he had a lot of very encouraging metrics, but target per out run rate was not really one of them.

You're hoping that he takes a jump there. Go ahead, Jamie. This isn't a take Koker over McMillan scenario. This is just a reason to sort of be concerned about McMillan. And to your point, Adam, beginning of the season. Jayle Cucker wasn't playing. So, you know, sometimes there's a ramp up period for guys that miss training camp, for guys that get injured.

We see it all the time. And so was he finally healthy at that point? Again, another target in the mix with the receiver that they drafted who's going to get opportunities. They still have, for what it's worth, you know, why am I forgetting his name? Liet. You know, he'll get chances also, you know, so. I think I know why you're forgetting his name. You know, so there's still just.

I think when you look at it, like, yes, he is by far their best talent. Yes, he is by far a player who could be a number two fantasy-wide receiver. I just think that he's getting pushed up a little bit too soon and too high in drafts for where I think you should be comfortable taking him in the offensive environment that he's in. Luther Burden or Tederole McMillan. Luther, Luther, Luther, Burton. I don't know why I said that. Luther Burton. Garrett Wilson.

Garrett Wilson. G-dub. J-D. McMillan? I got McMillan higher. Okay. By the way, his target per out run rate, it wasn't that bad.

It was 22.3%, basically a little bit below George Pickens. But with the roster they have, you'd think he has a chance, McMillan to have a 25, 26% target per out run rate, which would be really damn good. Next stat, oh, my Drake

London stat. How much does this matter, guys? Over the last two seasons, let's see, 2024, London average 15.1 PPR fantasy points per game in 14 games with Kirk Cousins. That's good. It's not great. 23 points per game in three games with Michael Pennix Jr. In 2025, he averaged 19.7 points per game in nine games with Pennix and 8.3 points per game in three games with Cousins. Of course,

he was playing Hurt at the end of the year. But much better with Penix than with Cousins. Is this a London stat? Is this a Brock Bauer's stat? Because he's going to be playing with Cousins today. Or is this just kind of fluky doesn't really matter? Remember, quarterback competition in Atlanta. Dave, how much does the Pennix splits matter for London? Well, just keep in mind that the reason why the number was so high in 2024 is because London had a blow-up

game in Week 18. If you take that out, it's not quite as good. I think it's more important to just look at what happened last year with London and those first how many games was it? First nine games. He averts almost 20 ppms per game. Those were with Pennix, mostly,

or all? All. That's good. I do worry about Tua being his quarterback, and that lowers the upside for Drake London, a lot more in terms of shorter throws. Ball's going to get out fast. And I think London will be okay as long as Tua is the quarterback. And then we don't know how Pennix is going to be as he works his way back from another significant injury. So you have him rank.

Let me pull up the rankings. Sorry, real quick. I have him 10th, Drake London. Okay. Where does Jamie have Drake London? Ninth. Yeah. If he said today,

Tuatung of I Loa is going to be the starting quarterback for the entire season. Where would you rank London? I'm anticipating that, so that's where I happen. Yeah. Okay. If I said Michael Pennick is going to be the start of the entire season, where would you rank them?

Same spot, probably. Yeah. I don't see myself putting them over the likes of Justin Jefferson, Nico Collins, AJ Brown. I'd rather have those guys. I'll take them over, Nico, but I agree with the rest. Okay. Next up, stat number eight.

Dave's Garrett Wilson stat. We're in a little bit of a wide receiver run here. We're going to take a break first, and then eight is great with Garrett Wilson. We'll be right back with stat number eight. Don't hurt you anything. These are Garrett Wilson stats that don't have anything to do with Garrett Wilson, but it does have everything to do with his quarterback and his play caller, both of which are new this year.

Gino Smith, six years as a full-time NFL starter for an NFL team, only three times since he had a receiver, not multiple receivers, one receiver get at least 14 PPR points per game, and it was never more than 15 PPR points per game. That all came in his days in Seattle with three different wide receivers. Now, Frank Reich, 10 years as a play caller in the National Football League, only three times has he had a wide receiver average 15 plus PPR points per game, and his track record is to utilize multiple running backs and tight ends in the passing game.

54.8% is the overall target rate to wide receivers. from Frank Reich's quarterbacks in his 10 years as a play caller. Now, I'd be surprised if Frank Wright goes in and says, yeah, we shouldn't get Garrett Wilson the ball that much. And Garrett Wilson should get a lot of targets. But we've seen years from G-dub where he gets a lot of targets, and he's still not an outstanding fantasy-wide receiver. So I like him.

I obviously love the talent. And we talked about him, I think on a number of occasions, with Scott Turner, who coached him last year. He sees the talent in him as well. But I'm nervous about the surrounding, atmosphere world around him with Gino as the quarterback and Frank Reich as the play caller, not to mention the fact that the Jets have been hyping up Adonai Mitchell, they drafted two past catchers in the first round, and they've got three running backs that they want to get

involved. This could be a situation where things are just spread out a little bit too much and not enough touchdowns will be there for Garrett Wilson to be a great fantasy wide receiver, just a good fantasy wide receiver. And does that stat matter? You know, the Gino Smith part especially. I guess it, I think I just would add the context, David. He really had two receivers in Seattle, right? He either had Lockett in Metcalf or Metcalfe and JSN. He never had a situation where one guy was clearly the, the best guy, right,

except maybe half a season with JSN when Metcalf was hurt or partial season. Just like three games. Off the top of my head. So maybe that's what's different there. But. Could be. Yeah. When you look at this group of wide receivers going around the three-four turn,

I think I know the ones that you guys are going to be avoiding. Zay Flowers, Garrett Wilson, Tetero-McMillan, and Ameca, Abuka. Flowers, Wilson, Higgins, McMillan, Abuka. Do you think we're going to be avoiding them? I think you're going to be avoiding in that group, Wilson, and McMillan, and favoring Flowers, Higgins, and Abuka. Okay. I don't know if it's, well, first off, most of our drafts,

we don't usually see those guys lump together. So I think you sort of just figure out which ones. you like best. I think you're right, Adam, at least for me, I would put Wilson and McMillan at the bottom of that group. But the thing about Garrett Wilson, it was nice to see him score the touchdowns last year with, you know, you could argue some still questionable quarterback play. He had four touchdowns in his first five games. So that's encouraging that he was able to do that. I think Dave's point about the rest of the receiving core and what it looks like, you know, the addition of Siddique and Cooper, what Mitchell does. All those guys have been added since Garrett Wilson suffered

his knee injury last year. He never played with Adonai Mitchell. And so we'll see how this all works together. But I do think you make a great point, Adam. Like, Gino Smith has never really been asked to support, like, one alpha like Wilson is, because Wilson's still the best receiver of this group. And so, you know, how many targets will he get by comparison to everybody else per game for the season? You know, we'll have to see how that all shakes out. But obviously, Garrett Wilson's track record is not that encouraging because we haven't seen him do it over a full season. We saw the stretch before Devanti Adams for the stretch before he got hurt last year.

And then now he's going to have to do it in this, again, environment where there's some talented young players with a quarterback that's still somewhat questionable. The thing that's nice is the offensive line should be much improved over the last couple of years. They've been building up this unit, and I think it's going to be in a good spot. The schedule is very favorable.

So hopefully that helps Garrett Wilson and really the entire offense. And so we'll see if Gino Smith can sort of live up to it and play the entire year. But if you get him at the right cost, I think it's worth it. So put him behind those guys, at least for me. I'd rather have a book. I'd rather have T. Higgins, remember what he said.

But if you get him five, six picks later in round four, that's great. Yes. Okay. Let's go to Dave's T. Higgins' stat as we continue our wide receiver one, a run. Stat number nine, by the way, 17 is going to be tough today. But we're going to go rapid fire later in the show. But stat number nine, does it matter, T. Higgins? This is an easy one to get through.

15.1 PPR points per game in six games last year for T. Higgins. when Jamar Chase and Joe Burrow were healthy. Two of them were 15 plus PPR and includes a 27.2 bomb in week 14. And then the year before, 2024, 12 games he played, 18.5 PPR points per game. Those were all with Chase and Burrow. If there was a wide receiver duo that 15 top 12 in PPR points per game, it's in Cincinnati and it's Jamar Chase and T. Higgins. This should encourage you to draft T. Higgins as at minimum a top 15 wide receiver.

Yeah, I love it. I break down their stats when the big three are all playing a normal snap share. And in four of the last five seasons, T. Higgins has averaged at least 15.3. Yeah, at least 15.6 fantasy points per game, which is 15.4. Sorry, at least 15.4 fantasy points. I knew it was there. But that's really good. And that's why I think he's a very safe pick, you know, in that same area.

If you think Garrett Wilson is too risky, if you think those guys maybe they have more upside, Higgins is super safe. Right. The downside is that we know that T. Higgins misses time. Yeah. It's hard to count on him for 17 games. Emburrow.

21 touchdowns the last 25 games, right? Wow. Something to like that. He's a touchdown machine. There's a wild stat about his target per out run rate. Like, it's insane. T. Higgins, in the last four seasons, T. Higgins is the only wide receiver to finish top 16 per game in PPR with a target per outrun rate under 22%.

And he has done it twice. So it's because he scores a lot of touchdowns. Okay. Next stat. It's 21 touchdowns his last 27 games. 21. Wow. All right. And what did you say before, 21 and 25?

Yeah. Oh, now he sucks if it's 21 and 27. Jamie's Michael Wilson stat is our 10th stat. Go ahead. It's just the numbers of Michael Wilson with and without Marvin Harrison Jr. So Wilson last season was obviously incredible in the games that you remember was a league winner. But when Marvin Harrison was healthy in the games with Jacoby Brissette specifically, but when Marvin Harrison was healthy in the 12 games that he played,

Michael Wilson was such a non-factor. So I don't misquote myself. I'll get it. It was, sorry. I got it for you if you want. Okay, sorry. 12 games with Marvin Harrison Jr. playing.

So this even includes the games that Harrison left early. But in those 12 games, Michael Wilson averaged 7.6 points per game. And in the five games without Marvin Harrison, Jr., he averaged 25.9 points per game. It's really the targets, though, that matter here. 13.6 for Wilson without Marvin Harrison, 4.8 with Marvin Harrison. Like, that's crazy. Amazing. So, yeah, and then how does it change?

How does it, oh, you know what? Here's a better question. Convince me that Marvin Harrison, Jr. should be going ahead of Michael Wilson. Well, I think that's the reason why is the targets per game when they were both healthy last year and really what Michael Wilson even did the year before. The encouraging thing is, you know, what Michael Flore came out and said is that, you know, he wants Michael Wilson to be his Pukunakua and he wants Marvin Harrison to be his DeMonte Adams. Well, we know how many targets Pukinakua.

gets, and that's the favorable thing. It's not what Michael Wilson will do with those opportunities because he's not Pooka Nakuwa. But if he's getting chances, clearly, as we saw last year, he could be absolutely dominant. The question is, can he get those chances? And I think that's what everybody's skeptical of. So, again, going back to what we said about Trey McBride, the run game will be better. It's going to hurt the entire passing game. We don't know how many games Jacoby Brousel will start versus Carson Beck or even Gardner

Minchu, especially if Brissette is a holdout. As Scott Turner said, that sort of screws up the entire offense when the quarterback's not there with what you're trying to install, especially with a new coach. But obviously there's reasons to be concerned about both of these guys. I think just looking at it as if the track record holds, and if you just want to use the stats that we gave, when both guys were on the field, there's a nine target difference for Michael Wilson comparatively to when Marvin Harrison plays versus when he doesn't play. Nine targets per game, 13.6, 4.8.

That's just absolutely amazing. How great he was last year, but how much he just took advantage of Marvin Harrison not on the field. There's also the issue that in L.A. there was no Trey McBride on the field. The Rams had a bunch of different tight ends and they'd use them and sometimes we'd see Colby Parkinson pop off for a big touchdown streak, but nothing like Trey McBride. And I think LeFleur would be foolish to not utilize McBride. And if McBride's still going to get his and I think he will, that's going to hurt the target upside for both of these wide receivers, neither of whom are as talented as NACUA or

frankly as Devante Adams. So I would be a little nervous trying to make the comparison that one of these receivers is going to be one of these guys and the other wide receiver is going to be other when both aren't perfect. Both can be covered tightly by one guy if need be on an opposing defense, whereas Tray McBride has just been such a monster and such a good, good part of this Arizona offense. And they added a big piece of the offense in Jeremiah. I love this offseason that could hurt everybody involved in the passing game for Arizona.

But Mike LaFour already said that Tray McBride. bride is going to be his Tyler Higby. Well, it's going to be Tyler Higby at the end of, uh, 2023 or 2022 or whenever that was. One of the best six, six game or five game stretches in tight end history. So real quick, Marvin Harrison Jr. in round six or Michael Wilson at the eight, nine turn? Which do you like better? Marvin. I'm not drafting either.

Okay. Next stat. I think I'm up now. Yeah. Stat number 11 is Adams, Terry McLaurin. that. I just want to remind everyone how good Terry McLaurin was two seasons ago. He averaged almost 19 points per game in his last six games. Then he averaged 18.2 points per game in three postseason games. In fact, if you go back to 2024, Jaden Daniels didn't

really play that well the first two games of the year. And then after that, he and McLaren were so good. McLaren averaged 17.3 points per game in the last 15 regular season plus three postseason games of 2024. But he did that with only 7.1 targets per game. So there's just no way he's going to score 17.3 points per game on 120 targets, or it was right around that. But I just think it's important to remember how good he was. And I think this is a player in McLaurin where you could just say, I don't care about

anything that happened in 2025. I'm going to completely erase it from my memory. So he was probably too good. it in 2024, but I don't even think we need to spend much time on this. I just think it matters to remind people of the connection between Daniels and McLorin. It was really impressive. And, you know, he's older, though. He's 30 now, I think. 31. 31. So would you take, you know, the guys we've been talking about, McMillan, Garrett Wilson, or McLaren? I'd rather have McLaren than Wilson and McMillan. Wow. I've got Wilson one spot higher in full PPR.

Now, that could change depending on who they add, because I'm sure they're going to add somebody else. but the rest of this receiving core is just so bad. Right, right. You know, I should say it's incomplete because Antonio Williams could be a nice young player and still we might get some numbers from these other guys. Like maybe this is the year that McCaffrey steps up and does something for them.

But like this should be the target hog of all target hogs. But he's net, that's the thing. The weirdest thing about McLauran is he's just never commanded targets like a true number one wide receiver. Bigel's never been in this situation. He kind of has. He's pretty much never played with good receivers before, right? I mean.

Yeah, but there's been guys that, like, you know, Debo Samuel is still going to get opportunities. Like, there's nobody that you can look at. Even, like, I like Chicoke O'Concoe. I think he's got an opportunity to be a fantastic steal at his cost and great situation to walk into because, again, there's not a lot of opportunities for other people that have proven themselves. And he's got a better resume than almost everybody on the roster next to Terry McLaurin. but like this this group is bad man like go back to what we said yesterday two days ago about the chiefs without rashi rice or what the dolphins look like right now like you take mccloren off

that team he gets hurt at all it's bad news yeah here's a great comment from the chat reminding me from lee price that david blouse said how can i get terry mccloren 10 targets a game right which i think was a little bit more of an exaggeration than anything else but it does bring up a fantastic point. This is a new offense in Washington that I think is going to evolve Jaden Daniels game and open the door from McLaurin to finally get north of 7.3 targets per game, especially if they don't add anybody. You could have convinced me a month ago that Brandon Ayuk would be a commander. Now Brandon Ayuk has convinced me that Brandon Ayuk will not be a commander. And I'm not sure they're going to add somebody significant to

Oh, if Defon Diggs has no issues, it's DeFondiggs. But Saffon Diggs has some issues. And so I wonder if Washington stays away from that and they just go with what they have. And that does open the door for McLaurin to get seven and a half targets per game and to be used differently than he has been over the last couple of seasons and maybe differently over the course of his entire career. I don't know how I feel about David Blow as a play caller yet. It's his first year. But the offense that he's going to run mostly West Coast with some air raid stuff mixed in, some influence. from Ben Johnson, it could be very, very good.

It really comes down to how Jane Daniels takes to it. And I'm optimistic about that because I've seen Jane Daniels evolve as quarterback before. And now he's got the chance to do it again. And he should be successful. So the more I talk myself into Terry McLaurin, the better I feel about taking him with a late round three, early round four pick. Okay. It just, it would be a little strange for a 31 year old.

It'll be 31 in September, by the way. For a 31 year old to, you know, get his, say, his highest target. per outrun Raider's highest target share of his career would be a little unusual. But the opportunity is there. I was actually hoping to find Heath's projections or anyone's projections, basically. I saw a sports line. They have the targets a little low for McLauran. But I feel like if I ask Heath, which team has the biggest separation between number one in targets

and number two in targets in the NFL? I wonder if Washington is currently that team. But I think it might be the Raiders with. Yeah, I was about to say the Raiders could be that team. I thought that that too, but I don't know. Maybe. So, anywho, let's go rapid fire on our last six stats. Jamie, these are all Jamie and Dave, you can give a stat and tell me if you think it matters.

And Dave, do you think it matters? Let's start with your DJ Moore stat, Jamie. So it's really just DJ Moore with his play caller now, who he had in Carolina. Joe Brady, the head coach of the Bills, was the offense coordinator in Carolina in 2020, when Teddy Bridgewater was the quarterback for. 15 games. And in 2021, when Sam Darnold was a quarterback for the majority of the season, more average at least 13.9 PPR points per game in each of those two years. In 2020, with Bridgewater and Brady calling plays, 66 catches, 1193 yards, four touchdowns,

but a career best 18.1 yards per catch, 118 targets and 15 games. 2021, 93 catches, 1157 yards and four touchdowns on 163 targets. This was, if you recall, when we would talk about DJ Moore, oh, if he gets more touchdown opportunities, he could be amazing, think about Zay Flowers now. Then he goes to Chicago, has that huge breakout season. I don't know which version of DJ Moore we're going to get. As we talked to Scott Turner about this yesterday, I think you know that seems like most people run the league.

They're going to feed DJ Moore. They have a second round pick and $40 million worth of reasons why. To feed DJ Moore, Josh Allen was much better when he had Stefan Diggs. Again, a younger Stefan Diggs at that time when he acquired him as his top pass catcher. But they need a player like this. So don't look at what he did last year in terms of his target. targets, 85 targets. I think he's going to fly past that. 163, probably unrealistic. I would take the over if you're watching on YouTube of the 109 targets that Sportsline has. I think we're looking

at around 130 targets of DJ Moore stays healthy. So for me, he's a top 21, you know, I'll call him top 20 wide receiver. I would take him as early as round four, prefer to get him in round five. But I just think we're seeing DJ Moore. Joe Brady went and got a guy that he's very comfortable with, familiar with, and I think it's going to be a great situation pairing him with Josh Allen, and we see one of DJ Moore's best seasons. I hope Jamie's right. But the only receiver that we've seen do really well with Josh Allen has been Stefan Diggs.

Diggs had nine targets per game. Is that what we're going to get out of DJ Moore? I bet against nine targets per game, and I might bet against eight targets per game, too. That being said, if we're drafting him in that round four or five range, I'm pretty sure you're not drafting him too close to his ceiling and he can still be a good fantasy receiver. Dave, let's go to another AFC East receiver. Your A.J. Brown stat. This is, again, about Drake May and not necessarily about A.J. Brown because I think we know

how everybody feels about A.J. Brown. We've seen him with our own eyeballs play well when he's healthy. Last year, there were 13 times when May through seven plus targets to one single wide receiver of those 13, 10 times the receiver had at least 13 p.pr points. And eight of those 10, it was 15 plus ppr points. I wish that number were higher, and we could talk about 20 ppr points per game and half of them. It really wasn't that high. It was about a quarter of them,

maybe even less than that for the wide receiver in New England. But I do think AJ Brown is going to get a lot of targets, and we've seen it from him before. He had seven plus targets in 13 of 17 games in his first year with Philadelphia, 49 of 70 games with Philadelphia, including the postseason, that's 70% of the times. And eight of 12 games when he played 50% of the snaps from where.

This is an Azerstad. All right. 12 games where he played at least 50% of the snaps in Tennessee with Rabel, eight times, seven plus targets per game. I think we know A.J. Brown's going to get a lot of targets. I think we know that as long as he's healthy, he's going to be productive with them. I think we know that Drake May is a good ball thrower all over the field.

It makes me encourage to draft A.J. Brown as a top 10 fantasy wide receiver. Yeah. It does. I do wish those numbers were a little bit higher. Drake May, when he throws to somebody seven times and the fantasy points. But you just have to hope that Brown's going to do more with those targets than anyone on the Patriots could have. Jamie, oh, no, Dave, stay with you.

Stat number 14. Wondell Robinson stat, Barf. I know. And if you look at the list of wide receivers and targets per game over the past two seasons combined, Wondell is top 10 at 8.8 targets per game. And I like Wondell Robinson's spot because he's still with Brian Dable.

And Brian Dable is the one who brought him into the league. He's the one who fed him targets, even when the league neighbors had his breakout rookie year. eight targets per game each of the last two seasons. But it's just ugly what the production is. So he's a PPR only consideration for me. And it just makes sense that you go after him, just hoping that he can continue to get eight targets per game

and a role he's been playing in his entire career with Brian Dable as his coach. Of course, Daible now the play caller of the offense in Tennessee. It's just the funny thing about is obviously it stands out when you look at the names that he's listed here with. It's crazy. Which version of Wondell Robinson are we getting? Because the one we got last year, when neighbors missed the majority of the season,

was an amazing PPR fantasy wide receiver. The one we got the year before when the targets were almost identical was a very disappointing PPR wide receiver. And so I think the question is, like, how much do you believe in Cardinal Tate? How much do you believe in this offensive environment that he's in? Yes, Dable obviously has him for. reason. And I think the opportunities should be there because I don't think that at this point in their careers, Calvin Ridley toward the end, D.K. or Ile Manor at the beginning, like, you know who the top two guys are. It's Cardinal Tade and Robinson. And he should get those chances. But I think

we get fewer chances because of the quarterback. I don't think Cam Ward is going to over-target Wondell Robinson like we saw certainly for Jackson Dart last year and the quarterbacks that we had in 2024. And then it's a matter of where it does the production end up because when he was on the field with another alpha, again, the guy that he's saving my targets with the last two seasons in the league neighbors, he just wasn't that good. So like he caught the ball a lot. He just didn't do a lot with it. So I think if you buy into Cardinal Tate and you buy into, you know, still the targets being there, that's the version that I'm expecting of Wanda Robinson closer to the 2024 guy. Adam, should we give the audience a little peek behind the curtain on what we were talking

about yesterday. Oh, what exactly? We were talking about a lot yesterday. With the number of plays Wondale Robinson had that resulted in one to one point nine PPR points. I guess so. It kind of was so. Like,

I don't know if this means anything, but he led the NFL, he led all the wide receivers in number of plays where he got between one and 1.9 p.m. At 57. And then he only had 19 between 2 and 2.9. and all the other great receivers that get a lot of targets had a much better or much closer number of plays between, you know, the tiny little catches and the catches that could actually like get a first down. Yeah, because I think that's what he is.

The point there is that he doesn't do much after the catch even for a guy. And last year, his ADOT wasn't that low. It was 8.5, which is kind of low. But the years before that, 6.2, 5.3, 4.7 yard A dot for Wondell Robinson. that is, you know, among the lowest in the league. And he still doesn't really do that much after the catch. So you're just, you know, if he doesn't get 100, he doesn't get 120 targets, it's going to be a problem.

He's got 140 targets two straight ears. I think, I disagree with Jamie on Cam Ward not throwing it to him. I think he's an easy target to throw to him. No, no, he's going to throw to him. He's not going to Uber target him like we've seen the last two years. And I think he does. Do you think he's getting 8.8 targets for him again? I think he gets over 8.

targets per guy. I wouldn't draft him as a top 36 receiver otherwise. I would, but I think Cardinal Tate is a complete bust. I would take the under by a lot. I actually like Tate better, but I think Tate will be the one with more efficiency, more touchdowns, obviously more yardage. But I bet Wondell is more catches. I guess, Jamie, it's worth pointing as everybody's going, oh, he'd know Malik neighbors last year, but he did do it two years ago with Malik neighbors. Just not as not as no, no, no. Again, the question was, did he not get targets? Yes, he got targets. It's what he produced when Malik neighbors on the field. But what would be different about that? that. I mean, the difference, right, so he got 140 targets 2024 and did very little with them.

He had 140 targets last year, and he did more with them. I don't know that neighbors necessarily had anything to do with that unless you want to say the ADOT went up because neighbors was out. That's possible because he did have more, Pat, more. All right, I know we're going long here. First three seasons of his career, Wondale Robinson, he had 12 targets of 20 or more area yards combined. last year he had 21 and he caught 11 of them for 351 yards and two touchdown. Were they on the Dallas game in week two?

The Dallas game in week two and also that flea flicker against Detroit in week 12 big parts of Robinson's season. So maybe he just got more downfield targets which he needed because neighbors was out. Other than that, I can't really think of a reason why his production would have been that much better.

Other thing is he wasn't even that good last year just a terrible year for wide receivers. His same point per game in 2024 would have been wide receiver 31 per game. All right, sorry. That's where you draft them, if you're going to draft them at all. All right. Let's see if we can get through the rest here.

Jamie's past catching running back stat. Go. So I mentioned this two shows ago. When we were talking about, I think it was kind of game over, shot wider, maybe both. So since 2021, there have been 44 running backs with at least 50 catches. 38 of them, so 38 to 50, whatever that percentage comes out to, have averaged at least 13 PPR points per game.

same year, 2021, 80 running backs had at least 40 catches. 68 of those guys averaged at least 11 ppr points per game. So receptions, as we know, matter immensely for running backs. And so even though, like Adam, I didn't go through all the names. And I know we discussed a couple of these guys. Miles Gaskin had a 40 catch season for the Raiders and averaged over 11 pbr points. That was in 10 games, right? I think.

So that's a lot of catches. But I think this is a relevant stat of, you know, averaging 11 points per game. You, you know, you have a pretty good chance of doing it if you catch 40 or more balls. That's for what, you know, the gain wells of the world, the guys that we're saying, hey, look, they're not going to be great. We take them in round eight or later, but they might be able to sneak into our lineup if we need it. Is that kind of where you're going on? Sure.

Yeah, it's also like, you know, when you get to the, you know, double digit rounds or close to double does around. So let's just say post round eight. And you're looking at floor versus ceiling. So I think two guys that could be this year's Kenneth Gainwell would be Taj Spears and Dylan Samson. Now, they're going to need some of those games where the starter misses, like we saw from Game Mill last year, where Jalen Warren was out and he got those rushing opportunities and was awesome in them. And I don't think we're talking about 70 catch guys. But those two guys, I mean, Tajay Spears had 45 catches last year. He was one of the ones. that was under the 11 PPR points per game.

But Samson and Spears are in situations where you could see the receptions being there and then the maybe. And I think that's what you're looking at is the maybe. So those two guys are on the lower end scale of, I don't know if they'll get to 11 PPR points per game, but they could be north of eight just with their reception production alone and then whatever they do as rushers. I think in the case of Gainwell and White, White specifically,

you're talking about backfields where either the starter has got some questions or in the case of White, that's more game well, in the case of White, like, he may be they're just their best running back. And I don't know how much you want to, you know, get excited about that or just say, oh, that's just kind of where they are. But you know Rashad White is walking into the third down role. And then the guy in front of him had such a wildly inconsistent rookie season last year that Jacori Kroski Merritt, who the investment is minimal,

if he struggles, then we can see White playing a three-down role. And so those type of guys where, okay, I may get that 11 point per game floor, which is not something you should go on expecting. But again, the track record and the number suggests that because I think both those guys are going to get easily over 40 catches if they stay healthy and probably challenge to get 50 catches in their offenses. Like Gainwell showed you the path to greatness last year. Again, 13 PPR points per game. Everything worked out well for him. He was great when Warren was out. He was such a big part of what Aaron Rogers was doing.

he's not going to do that again without an injury. But where you can draft these guys right around pick 100 or later, those are the two players that I would say, okay, this could be that 11 point per game floor, which is definitely flex-worthy, and the chance to be north of 13 if, again, everything breaks right. The other two guys that I mentioned, I think, in Samson and Spears, those are more 40-catch guys.

Those are more, I may be hoping to get an 8-point-per-game situation out of them, but they could hit that 11-point-per-game number. To drive the point home on Rashad White, if you can get somebody in round 10 that averages 14 PPR points per game, you'd probably be really happy about that, right? Yes. Of course you would. Well, too bad. Rashad White only averaged 13.9 ppr points per game in 2024,

the first nine games before Bucky Irving became a thing in Tampa. He had nine total touchdowns this year. How about he could be the passing downs guy for Washington and work at the goal line for Washington. And that's with Kroski-merit healthy. All right, Dave, two more stats. This is a weird one. Your top five running back stat.

It's not a weird one. It's just a macro stat. It's surprising. 70% of the running backs that finish top five in PPR points per game since 2005 failed to do so again the following year. So this is like the same type of repeating stat that we've talked about for the top 12 wide receivers and for Christian McCaffrey and all that other stuff. Two running backs did it last year, though. I bet you know who they are that finished top five in PPR points per game in consecutive years.

Your hint is they're going to be the first two picks in every draft this year. Each of them caught 55 passes last year, by the way. No running back has finished the regular season atop the PPR per game mountain two years in a row since Todd Gurley, and that was in 2017 and 2018. The last one before that was Brian Westbrook, our pal, in 2007 and 2008. So that's once per decade tight stuff. a thing to think about when you're thinking about drafting Christian McCaffrey. Wow.

So what was it? 70% of the time a running back does not repeat top five in PPR points per game. That's wild. I have the list of top five PPR running backs per game last year. You don't have it. Yeah, it's McCaffrey, B. John, Gibbs, Taylor, and A. Chan. Right. So which one of those guys, which at least three of those five will not repeat?

It's almost a guarantee that three of them will not. Which ones will they be? I wouldn't bet against... And Taylor is who I'd bank on, which I hate to say, but I'm not betting against Gibbs and Bijan. Yeah, well, they're the most likely, certainly. Right. Okay.

Last stat, we got one more. What do we got here? We have Jamie's Devon A Chance. Yeah, perfect. Perfect segue. Just repeating what we said the other day. 25 games with two of tongue by low over the last two seasons, 21 and a half PBR points per game.

absolute stud. Eight games without Tua Tung of I lower the last two years, 10 and a half fantasy points per game. It's just mind-boggling. Now, there are a lot of different circumstances that went into those games, so take that into account, but it's just numbers being what they are. 21.5 with Tua, 10-and-a-half without Tua.

I have a question. And so a question, I could answer this too. What would you need to see or hear this preseason to make you believe that A.C.N. will be as good as he was last year. Is there anything that the dolphins could tell you or show you? Right, other than Tuaungovalo coming back to the dolphins. No, but McDaniel, too.

I think just the case, you know, we talked about this with Scott Turner on Tuesday. Like, you know, when we reference the stats, Malik Willis, worst quarterback the last two years of targeting his running backs, two of Tongue by the best quarterback the last two years of targeting his running backs. Adam brought up the point about the personnel that Malik Willis has worked with, not exactly the best past catching running backs. And as Scott said, like, they're going to do different things with Malik Willis to allow him to throw to Devon A-Chann. Will he be first?

You know, I'm paraphrasing Scott here. Will Malik Willis be first in that number because of A-chan? No. Will he be last? Probably not. So I think you look at what the track record is of quarterback who doesn't do the thing that we want the running back to do. And the guy that he just lost did that better than anybody else. So that's where the concern comes in for A-chan.

Again, what would have to happen? I think the offensive line would have to stay healthy and live up to some of the expectations. I think Malik Willis would have to keep A. Chan certainly north of 50, you know, and probably in the 60 catch range. And then just looking at it, okay, this offensive environment stinks, but this guy's an absolute stud. Just give him every opportunity they possibly can. So get those goal line chances when they're there, still be very involved in the passing game. And hopefully the dolphins exceed their projected win total, which is under five. And Dave made the point that if you look at that eight game sample for A. Chan, where he's averaging 10.5 points per game without two.

Only two of them were last year. And last year, 2025, two games at the end of the year. And he averaged 16.1 points per game, which most years is going to put you sort of at the back end of running back 10 right around there. It's exactly what I'm expecting from A. Chan this year, which is still good. Yeah, it's good. But it's probably taking 15. overall, it's probably not that good of a pick. I disagree.

I think that that's, I think 16 PPR points per game is fine at 15th overall. Man, if you're getting RB10 at 15th overall, I think that's not a good point. When a bunch of other running backs are going to go higher and be drafted sooner than normal. It's just when you, when you put him in that group with the guys that, again, not as talented as him potentially, or at least not the resume of what he has, but it's a group of running backs that have the chance to exceed those numbers potentially. And you're talking about Gentie and Hampton and Chase Brown and Barkley.

I'm probably missing somebody in there. Put Henry and Jacobs in there? Walker. Jacobs makes me nervous. But yeah, Henry, I think I said Henry, like three times. What about Derek Henry, Jamie? There's reasons to believe that those guys could be better than H.N., again, not from a talent standpoint, from an offensive environment standpoint.

What about Henry, though? I think he's good. Okay. Ravens running back. Thanks for watching, everybody. 17 stats. Most of them mattered. And we appreciate your time.

All right, tomorrow, remember, we're going to go early with the podcast 930 a. Oh, wait, wait. I know we went long today, but you didn't get an opportunity. Scott Turner crushed your dreams when he said that Jerry McGuire. You pissed me off. You can't ask that question without me on the show. You have to let me make the case that Jerry McGuire is not a football. movie. Because it isn't.

Because name three players. Rod Tedwell. Yeah. The quarterback. Troy Aikman. Cush. You're talking about Cush. We never even see play a game. Troy Akeman. Yeah. Not a... No. What do you mean? No.

Where's Troy Aikman? I remember Troy Aikman. The end of the movie. He's not playing. He's just there. Oh, they have to be playing. Yeah, name three players that played. Three players that played. Name two players that played. It's not a sports movie. There's freaking no sports in it.

So we just have to name them? They don't have to have any lines in the movie? You have to give me their names, like their character names. Frank Fool Machu Mahalo. I'll give you, I'll give you 20 names tomorrow. No. Why? You got to tell me now.

You can tell me now. All right, name all the Avengers, Adam. Go ahead. I don't know. I've never seen the Avengers. But that means it didn't happen? No, you've seen Jerry McGuire. I know also, I know the Avengers.

I could name some of them. But you've seen Jerry McGuire, and yet you still can't name football players because they're not playing football in the game, in the movie. Okay, so if I name you 20 players tomorrow. No, you can't do it. I absolutely can't. How could you do it? Because there's football scenes with people that have jerseys on that have named.

Listen, if you said to me, name five players in Major League, obviously we could do that. We know the players. All right, name five players in Major League. Come on, man. Don't make me do that. Dorn. You said you could. All right, you got Jake Taylor, you got Ricky Vaugh, you got Willie Mays Hayes, you got Roger

Dorn and you got Ed Harris. The crafty veteran Ed Harris, Eddie Harris. So there's your five. There's no. It's so bad of you. What's that? Oh, Serrano, of course. Right.

There are no players in Jerry McGuire because there's hardly any sport. You're wildly wrong here. I'm not. You got tricked into seeing a chick flick. They threw a little bit of sport. By the way, I love the movie. One of my favorite movies. you got tricked.

They threw a little bit of sports in there for the guys out there. If I give you 20 football players that are in that movie, 20 names of football players. They have their actors that are playing football. You're going to go on IMDB. You're going to look at. No, I'm not. I'm looking right now.

I'm going to watch all the football scenes. It doesn't exist. Johnny Morton is in the movie. Rick Myers in the movie. Drew Bloodsoe. When they, when he gets knocked out at the end of the game and all those players are there in the end zone. That doesn't count.

Those are extras. Well, now it doesn't count. They're extras. Jamie, don't be so. Don't be. So just to be clear. You know what I'm saying. You know what I'm saying. Just to be clear here. There are five baseball players only in Major League. Well, there are six that I forgot about Serrano.

There are six that matter. Right. There's six that have lines. Got it. You know what I'm talking about. Stop being so, oh, you're just needling me right now. You know exactly what I'm saying. The story of Jerry McGuire is a one football player in the movie. It is a love story about an agent.

It is not a football story. It's true. I mean, it is a love story about a guy whose life involves football. It is not a football movie. We've never asked Sam his opinion on this. Sam, what's your opinion? She's never said Jeremy McGuire. Come on.

I've seen it. I agree. I think it's a sports movie. Get the hell out of here, bro. I said disc. We got to go. We'll talk to you tomorrow. Oh, you're such a disc.

We'll talk to you tomorrow. I'm going to see football today. On podcasts. Everything has to come to on the end. Now streaming, only on Paramount Plus. The acclaimed series, The Shy, reaches its final chapter. We're from Chicago. It's my home.

From Emmy Award winner, Lean Away. There are two types of people in this world. Those that reach for more, and those that just enjoy what they got. This is shy. Anything's possible. Singing this song to you. Shy, the final season now streaming, only on Paramount Plus.