Fantasy Football Today - Downside Alert! Who Has the Lowest Floor? (05/29 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: May 29, 2024

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts Taking players in groups of three and debating who has the lowest floor. We start with Bijan Robinson/Jahmyr Gibbs/Jonathan Taylor (2:15). What do you need to know about their downside before you make your Round 1 selection? We also have some news and notes (9:30) as we discuss the new contract for Nico Collins ... Most downside in these groups: C.J. Stroud/Kyler Murray/Anthony Richardson (13:15); Brock Purdy/Jayden Daniels/Justin Herbert (16:35); Garrett Wilson/Marvin Harrison Jr./Saquon Barkley (22:22); Nico Collins/Drake London/Josh Jacobs (27:05) ... Finishing up with three more downside disputes: The Top 4 tight ends (33:15); Tank Dell/George Pickens/Calvin Ridley (37:50); DeVonta Smith/Tee Higgins/Cooper Kupp (42:35) ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Can you believe this? I had no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. You are on the clock. You've got a big decision to make. You've narrowed it down to three players, maybe at the same position, maybe at different positions, and you just don't want a dud. You don't want one of those guys that could be a total zero, has a huge, very low floor. I guess I shouldn't say a huge floor. A low floor, big downside. We're going to do that today. Yesterday was upside. Today, we're going to look at three players and say, who has the most downside with this pick. Can you define downside, please? Oh, I'd love to define.

No, no. Thank you. That wasn't for you, Heath. That was for my other troll. Anyway, we're going to... Can you define upside? I'm sorry, Guy. If you need me to define upside,

then what have you... Have you been paying attention over the last 10 years? Are you kidding? Yes. All right. Anyway. What are we talking, like a 75th percentile upside or a 90th percentile upside? You know what I forgot about?

I forgot about. It was the first guy. One of the first guys we're going to talk about is B. John Robinson. I forgot about one of the most disappointing fantasy performances of all time. And that was.4 full PPR fantasy points, negative half PPR and non-PPR fantasy points for Bijan Robinson in your fantasy playoffs, week 15 against Carolina.

He had seven carries for 11 yards, one catch for three yards, and a fumble in this layup of a matchup. Talk about downside. B. John Robinson went out with a whimper in week 15 there and lost you your fantasy playoff matchup, which obviously didn't happen for everybody. But I forgot about that. But let's start with our most downside.

You're on the clock. Two running backs are off the board, McCaffrey and Brees Hall. And you're going Bijan, Jameer Gibbs, or Jonathan Taylor. Dave, who has the most downside in that group? Bijan, Jameer Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor. I love all three of these guys. I think all three of these guys are first round picks.

I'm going to say Taylor has the most downside of the three. Making the case for it simply because his quarterback runs could steal touchdowns away from him we don't know what the passing offense will bring I don't know if there's necessarily enough there for more than one pass catcher to be good in Indianapolis but what if they do end up spreading the ball around and throwing more than we anticipate that would be bad for Jonathan Taylor who also kind of has an injury track record, makes me a little nervous to rank them higher than I do, but I do feel like he's got good upside as well.

I'm just trying to make the case for the downside. Yeah. Go ahead, pick it up guys. And, and you know, you know, whoever wants to jump in there,

but yeah, we're going to mostly do this and it's fine if you want to qualify it, but forget, you know, mostly non-injury to him and non-injury to other players on the team downside. That's more of an upside argument, the other players on the team. But just assuming pretty much everyone stays healthy, who has the most downside?

Heath, you're up. I'll go with Jameer Gibbs just because I think it's easiest to see him with the lowest touch total of this group. And if the Lions go back to what they did with Jamal Williams or with Montgomery at the beginning of the year, and it's all one guy at the goal line, because I don't know, Gibbs has like two or three times where he gets stuffed in a row. And so we see Montgomery score all the touchdowns and still maintain his role in the rushing game. And Gibbs is just kind of an okay RB2.

All right, Jamie, what do you think? Who has the lowest floor, Bijan, Gibbs, or Taylor? I agree with Dave that it's Taylor, but I'll make the case for Bijan. Zach Robinson kept Arthur Smith's playbook and decides that Tyler Algier deserves more touches and wants to bench Kirk Cousins for not Michael Pennings Jr., but Taylor Heineke. Okay, well, I'll make...

I mean, I don't really think it's Bijan either, but the Rams, now he's coming from the Rams system. The Rams, their last five seasons, they've been 29th or lower in running back targets. And Bijan had, what, 50? How many catches did he have last year? I don't know. 60-ish?

He had a lot. Who are you asking for? Bijan? Bijan catches. I'll tell you right now. And then Taylor. I got him at 58. What if Taylor is the best trap back in the NFL?

What if he catches like 30 passes because Richardson's not going to throw to his running backs? And what if he loses a bunch of goal line touchdowns to Anthony Richardson? Is that a spooky thought that's actually realistic that Taylor just doesn't get enough high value touches? I think 30 receptions is probably what you should expect. You know, I don't, I don't think you should go on expecting him to be a 50 catch guy. You know, 40 would probably be where I bookmark it. I don't know what you have it at Heath from a projection standpoint, but I mean, yes, he's not going to see a lot of receptions if Anthony Richardson plays like we expect him to. But I also think

you trust that, you know that Shane Steichen's offense is going to be very good, I think, for a lot of people. He's a great play caller. And I don't think that Richardson's necessarily going to steal every rushing touchdown from Taylor, or a majority of rushing touchdowns from Taylor, to be honest with you. I think that's going to be Taylor's role. I've got him at exactly 30.

He had 19 catches in exactly 30. Okay. He had 19 catches in 10 games last year. Yeah. Two a game. This is not good. Which is like a pace. Yeah. For just about 30.

A few unrelated notes really quickly. We should probably address the elephant in the room. Some comments about Heath's camera. I like it. Yeah. His good camera may have died right before the show started. So he's using his laptop camera, which like it, yeah. His good camera may have died right before the show started, so he's using his laptop camera, which looks a lot better.

If you saw my laptop camera, it's much worse. Go show it. I got a new laptop. I'd done some shows. If I'd been prepared for it, I would have had some books underneath the laptop, and it would be up at the higher level. It's okay. Just laugh at me. It's adding a little entertainment to your YouTube show today.

You want to see the other camera camera yeah okay do we have to dude see well my my camera's off to the side so we go back to the good one here um anyway yeah so we're getting through that appreciate uh heath hopping on with the camera issue uh two other unrelated notes. The Timberwolves are going to win the Western Conference Finals. Just want everyone to know that. No way.

I was going to call it before game four. But they've been in every game with Carl Anthony Towns being so bad. They absolutely can win. They're going to win. They're going to be the first

to ever do it. Just take it to seven games and then I don't care. Yeah, exactly. Definitely cheering for them in the next two. I mean, look, whoever plays the Celtics, obviously their star player is going to get hurt. It's just like that. I'm just so tired of this nonsense. The Celtics play the entire playoffs without their second best player.

And we're going to talk about everybody else's injuries. The entire playoffs without Porzingis? Will they play two games with him? Did you say he's their second best player? Yeah. Come on. No, no. Even I know that that's not true.

I thought he played the whole Heat series. Maybe not. I guess I thought he got hurt against Caps. Anyway. Oh, the other thing is that the Panthers-Rangers series is unbelievable. It has been incredible. And I am now at the point where I am watching hockey over basketball. Sorry, basketball.

Even if it's not a team I'm rooting for. It's just – you should be watching hockey over basketball. I mean, you're a Panthers fan. Well, but I was watching Edmonton-Dallas over – I guess I think that was on the same night as Boston-Indiana. There's no chance you were watching hockey over the Knicks. No, no, no, no, certainly not. The hockey is a better product than the basketball.

That's what I would say. I think I've said this for a few years now. You mean two 3-0 series are not entertaining? Or a sweep and a 3-1 series? Mike, what? I hate the Pacers. Thank you for whooping the Pacers. I actually was rooting for Boston.

That's how much I hate Halliburton. All right, a couple things here. Watch CBS Sports HQ. You can follow all of these great sporting events, all the developments around all the leagues, and a lot of soccer too, golf, those types of things that you're not going to hear me talking about. Check it out on CBS Sports HQ.

You can watch that on the CBS Sports app. Check it out on your smart TV, all those things. And if your name is Jacob Cormier or your name is Kelsey, I don't know your last name, well, you are two of the four people who tied in the NFL Draft Podcast League contest. We've been trying to reach out to you. You've got maybe like another week, and then we're passing you by. We're trying to break the tie. So Jacob, Kelsey, respond to the emails that Thomas and I have sent you, and let's make this happen.

We'll be right back. Let's do news and notes real quick. Houston signed Nico Collins to a three-year deal. Almost $73 million. It's an extension and $52 million guaranteed. Dave says, wow, Nico Collins gets a new deal. He was great last year, but it's his only year of playing well. They just added Stephon Diggs. Did they need to extend him? What happened here?

Diggs is a one-year rental. He doesn't have that much money right now. Diggs is a one-year rental because they changed his contract. Maybe he is. Oh, he's definitely a one-year rental. They're not paying him now. Who, Diggs?

No, it would be after this year. But I'm not ready to say that he's one and done in Houston. It's not a lot of production. That's why they restructured his deal. Well, it's not a lot of production. They should keep him after this year. They could re-sign him. They certainly can, but I don't think that's what they did to do it. That's why they restructured the deal. Well, it's not a lot of production. They could keep him after this year.

They could resign him. They certainly can, but I don't think that's what they did to do it. That's why they did it. I think they tried to motivate him so he's not a distraction. Okay. For Nico, though, to be making about $24 million a year with one good season, it's a pretty eye-opening extension. Yeah.

Does it tell you? Obviously, it tells you how they feel about him. It doesn't change anything from yours. It changes his dynasty value. Yeah. Yeah, you know that he's locked in with CJ Stroud for the next three years. And between him and Tank Dell, it's a pretty damn good situation for CJ Stroud.

Was there a doubt about that? About Nico? Yeah. I mean, he's a free agent for next year. Okay. 24 million a year is equal to DK Metcalf. It's a million behind Devante Smith. It's top 10 in the NFL.

I mean, it certainly wants, you know, if you're T. Higgins and Jamar Chase and C.D. Lamb and all these guys, Justin Jefferson, you're like, where's my deal? Right. No kidding. And if you're T. Higgins and Jamar chase and CD lamb and all these guys, Justin Jefferson, you're like, where's my deal. Right. And if you're T Higgins and Jamar chaser, where's my, where's my OTAs. They're not there. They have not shown up. Also two off season additions for the bangles defensive tackle, Sheldon Rankin's offense and tackle Trent Brown. They are not there.

These are voluntary OTAs, but they're missing some key players. And Buffalo offensive coordinator, Joe Brady said that they are going to be running Josh Allen's offense. So, yeah, he's making it clear it's still going to run through Josh Allen. All right. Yeah, he's got to take the ball from the center and give it to the running back. OK, most downside. C.J. Stroud, Kyler anthony richardson we will get to that after a short break right now on fantasy football today

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It is amazing. I thought I'd seen that ad like six times but yes i'm very excited about it i had no idea that is terrific news okay so three quarterbacks uh we talked about a couple of them yesterday on the upside episode but who's got the most downside cj stroud kyler murray or anthony rich or Anthony Richardson? Jamie, I'm going to let you start. C.J. Stroud, Kyler Murray, or Anthony Richardson? Who has the most downside? I mean, I think it's obviously Richardson, just based on the small sample size that we have,

that he's going to let people down because he doesn't play at that level that we saw in the two healthy games, but even the games where he was just out there, he was amazing and looks the part of being a great fantasy quarterback but you have the injury concern i know you don't want to talk injuries but you know he's he's clearly got to be mentioned along with kyler you know for what they suffered last or the last over the last two seasons but um if richardson does not take a step forward as a passer and we're only relying on his rushing then i don't think he's going to become a potential top

five quarterback he could still be a top 10 guy but I think that's where the letdown will come if he doesn't continue to improve as a passer based on what he showed during his collegiate career. So for me, it's Richardson, but I think he also has the most upside of this group as well. We talked about that on the upside show and it makes perfect sense. And that's why I've got him ranked high. I think maybe one or both of you have him ranked higher than I do. And then he'll get drafted ahead of other players who I do have ranked ahead of Richardson. So I get the upside case for him, but it's based on projection. And I think that we could say that Kyler Murray's ranking is also based on projection. The fact that he's got Marvin Harrison to throw to, well, what if Marvin Harrison isn't amazing? What if he's just good? Does that mean that Kyler

Murray is going to be what he's been on an average the past two seasons, which is under 21 fantasy points per game? I would say if we throw out injury or massive regression and throwing for Richardson, then Murray is the one that's got the lowest upside, the most downside. But I still think he can be good as a starter for fantasy, even with that downside baked in. I don't have that much else to say. I think it's clearly Richardson. Okay, we'll move on. I thought Jamie made the Richardson case well. I can't make the case

for Stroud. It's Richardson. Does Stroud have the most downside in a four-point-per-passing touchdown league? I don't think so. Nope. It's Richardson. I would say he does.

I mean, you saw last year, and again, injuries played a big part in that with Tank Dell getting hurt and then Stroud getting banged up toward the end of the season. But, I mean, what if Diggs still stinks? You know, like he is not this, you know, significant addition. And they have, I know we can sit here and say the flaws of Joe Mixon. What if the run game is better, you know, and they decide that they want to run the ball a little bit more. This is still, you know, a defensive head coach. And so while Bobby Slowick is certainly in charge of the offense,

if they decide they want to rein in CJ Stroud a little bit, because some of the receivers are not producing, we could see that in Stroud having a down second year in that format, you know, where it's four points for passing touchdowns and minus two for interceptions. He was pretty flawless for the majority of the season in terms of turnovers, but if he starts to get a little bit more turnover prone because

one of his receivers, Diggs, is chirping, then, you know, we could see some flaws there. Alright, most downside. It's quarterbacks you might be taking later in the draft. Brock Purdy, Jaden Daniels, Justin Herbert. Who has the most downside? Brock Purdy, Jaden Daniels, or Justin Herbert?

Herbert. Herbert. Daniels. Oh. Go ahead, Jamie. Daniels has more downside than Justin Herbert. And Brock Purdy, we don't really... Brock Purdy seems pretty safe at this point, you could say.

Yeah. But why do you think Daniels has more downside than Herbert? Well, I mean, just because of the unknown. You know what I mean? You're still talking about a rookie quarterback that, while we hope he's going to run at a very high level and should run at a very high level, and I think he has the most upside of this group as well. I mean, if he struggles and gets turnover

prone and doesn't have the production with his legs, then he could be awful. Here's what's known about Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman when they've either coached together or separately and what their offenses are as far as passing goes. There's 10 years of data on this. Once in 10 years has a quarterback had 30 or more touchdowns when one of them has been coaching, in the case of Roman calling plays. Twice in those 10 years has a quarterback had over 25 touchdowns. Without rushing, which Justin Herbert doesn't have comparatively to other quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson or even Colin

Kaepernick I think he's going to need to have one of the most efficient years passing and still figure out a way to average two passing touchdowns per game in order to come through and what's going to happen when they get near the goal line in LA this year is it going to be Justin Herbert throwing to the tight ends or to the receivers I think it's going to be runs. And they talked about how adding Joe Alt is an offensive weapon and that he is a huge part of what they want to do. And they love their offensive line. They're going to lean on that. And it's not going to be just at the goal line.

It's going to be all over the field. I love Justin Herbert as a talent. When I talked to him, it's now two years ago, and I asked him about why should people take you as the number one quarterback in fantasy? He said, honestly, I don't think they should because stats don't matter to me. Wins are what matters to me. And I think he's going to back that up this year.

The quarterbacks under this coaching staff have backed that up. They win a lot. They don't get a lot of fantasy points. Even with the unknown with Jane Daniels, I'm going to say Herbert has a lower floor. Who are the quarterbacks that were in those 10 years? It's Alex Smith for a year. It's Colin Kaepernick for three years in Buffalo. I think it was to ride Taylor off to double check and Lamar and Baltimore.

So it's never been a throwing talent like this. It's never been a throwing talent on the level of Justin Herbert. I will give you that. That's the interesting thing though, is like, I feel pretty strongly that if we take away seven pass attempts per game from Herbert like I think they're going to his efficiency should go up but there's a risk that he throws 32 passes a game and is the same efficiency because I do think he's really

talented but a lot of his counting stats have just been because he throws 700 passes. He averages seven, seven and a half yards per attempt. He's got a four and a half percent touchdown rate. If he does that with 30, 32 pass attempts, he's Derek Carter for fantasy. Yikes. And he might make everybody who passes on him look like an idiot just based on the early season schedule,

Las Vegas to open the year at Carolina. Those are his first two games. And then he's got some matchups where down the line, high scoring, you know, Kansas city twice, Arizona's on the schedule. A lot of offenses with a lot of firepower. He might have to throw in those games, but I still worry about just the play calling being conservative. Herbert 32 pass attempts per

game I don't know what he was averaging exactly uh under prior offensive coordinators but 39 to 40 higher than 32 per game yeah a lot higher 39 to 40 if he doesn't get two touchdowns in a game think about what he has to put up otherwise it's got to be like 350 yards he can't have any turnovers maybe he runs for 10 or 20 yards or something like that. But I, he makes me nervous as far as the upside case goes. And that means that there's a lot of downside. Okay. Does he, does he have a, do they have a good running game though? I mean, they're not going to have a good running game from their quarterback. Really? That's like they have with court, with all the other guys that you mentioned, except for Alex Smith. And, yeah, I mean, they might have...

I just look at this Chargers roster, I don't even know where the talent is, you know? It's on the old one. It's not at the pass catchers. It's Justin Herbert. I mean, he's their best player, by far. For sure. That's why I don't think...

You guys think they're making the playoffs, if I recall. I think I brought this up. I don't remember who was on the show. I think they're bad on paper. I think they have a the playoffs, if I recall. I think I brought this up. I don't remember who was on the show. I think they're bad on paper. I think they have a bad roster, I think. I mean, a lot to be desired, but they do have Herbert, and they've got, like, hopefully a couple studs on defense, and they have Harbaugh.

Should keep them afloat around 500. I'm kind of veering into another conversation here. I mean, you know, it's not hard to be the second best team in that division because, you know, the Raiders have quarterback issues and, and, and still some, you know, unknowns with their coaching staff. Obviously the Broncos are in rebuild mode. And so while the chiefs of the class of the AFC West, you know, the, the chargers don't have far to go to be second and to be second in that

division could put them in the wildcard race. Yeah, they'll be in it, the wildcard race. All right, Garrett Wilson. So now we're up. We're maybe into round two, late round one. Garrett Wilson's on the board. Marvin Harrison is on the board. And Saquon Barkley is on the board.

Who has the most downside? Most, I guess I would say, bust potential here. Most downside between Garrett Wilson, Marvin harrison and saquon barkley harris kind of easy to take the rookie here now yeah i'll make the case for barkley i mean i i feel like for me everyone that has the most downside also has the most upside like jane daniels has the most upside of the previous trio but also the most down sure sure i'll i'll say like barkley could just like catch 40 or 45 passes and jalen hertz could rush for 15 touchdowns again and barkley could be a a bust at his current adp i i just i have a hard time believing mar Harrison's not going to catch 100 passes

unless he gets hurt. I kind of agree. I thought it would be Barkley here. I would take Harrison over Barkley. Wouldn't you guys take Harrison over Barkley? Or would it depend on your first pick? Yes, I would take Harrison over Barkley. But I also think, again, we're asking a rookie wide receiver

to come in and be dominant right away. And it hasn't always been the first receiver drafted that's been the best. We're also asking Kyler Murray to support a receiver to this level, which he really hasn't done consistently over the course of his career. And he's only really had one, so you can make the case that what he did with Hopkins the one season was pretty special. But McBride is going to steal targets and be a big part of this offense. the case that what he did with Hopkins the one season was pretty special, but McBride is going to steal targets and

be a big part of this offense, and I think the other pieces are going to still be involved. It's not like Marvin Harris. He's walking into a pretty damn good situation. He's walking into a great situation, but I mean, there's still the potential for failure.

And by failure, it doesn't necessarily mean complete bust, but it might be just not being this dominant force that we're expecting him to be. I mean, again, I'm taking him first. I'm taking Wilson ahead of Harrison. But I'm taking Harrison ahead of Saquon. Yeah, I'm not there yet. I recognize that Harrison ahead of Saquon. Right. Yeah, I'm not there yet. I recognize that Harrison was dominant in college, and I also recognize that he's got a shot at eight to nine targets per game, just Kyler Murray's track record with the number one receiver.

Is he going to, will he be as explosive against NFL level competition as he was in college? That's the question for Harrison because the nitpicks on Harrison, and these are small, is that he just didn't have top end speed. He didn't have speed like Malik neighbors. He didn't have physicality like other receivers in the draft class. The volume is going to be what carries him. But if it's a hundred catches and somehow it's only 12 yards per catch

and he only gets six or seven touchdowns it's a good year does that mean he's going to be top five good i'm not sure where that would rank compared to other wide receivers it's going to be up there for sure but barkley still has upside because what if barkley's there to take the tush push and simmer it down and now he's scoring more touchdowns or the eagles are able to change it up at the goal line. Okay. Barkley can still catch. Miles Sanders.

There's a, there's, there's a potential for the running back to still score double digits and touchdowns there. And I think about for Garrett Wilson, you know, I know we're not again factoring in injuries, but his quarterback is coming off an injury,

you know, with at 40 years old. So, you know, we're, we're, We're counting on Mr. Modest Aaron Rodgers to be great once again, and what if he's not? They have a pretty good running back that could be the focal point of the offense, and they added some pieces in the receiving core. It might not be the Garrett Wilson show that we're hoping for. How how many targets per game heath you can answer this one if you've

got it available how many targets per game are we expecting from garrett wilson this year this year i am expecting 10 wow he was at 9.9 last year which without rogers yeah i'm just under i got 165 or something so that's like that's right basically the same yeah that's great 10 wow he was at 9.9 last year no i'm just saying i wasn't expecting heath's projection to be as high because they've got you know because they ran the ball well last year and maybe they want to take a little bit of pressure off of rogers and maybe that means that they're not throwing it 40 times a game. Well, I feel like Rodgers is not typically a high pass attempt guy. He's so efficient.

But, yeah, he throws the ball 32 times a game, and 10 of them go to Devontae Adams, or 10 of them go to Gary Wilson. Yeah, well, I mean, in Devontae Adams' last season in Green Bay, he had 169 targets in only 16 games. Okay, let's move on to our next one. I'm going to give you two wide receivers and one running back. Who has the most downside, the lowest floor? Nico Collins, Drake London, Josh Jacobs.

Nico Collins, Drake London, Josh Jacobs. Nico Collins, Drake London, Josh Jacobs. I'll say Drake London because I think if he could just do what he's done, that would be a lower floor than the other two guys. Yeah, I just don't love that. I don't love that argument because even if he's averaging seven targets per game, which is where he was basically at the first years of his career, you've got to figure that the throws are going to be better and maybe even more downfield with cousins compared to the other quarterbacks

that he was going with. I kind of feel, I love Jacobs and I think he's in a great spot and I've talked him up as a guy who I think can average 15 PPR points per game, but I think he's in a great spot. And I've talked him up as a guy who I think can average 15 PPR points per game. But I think he's got some downside, too. I'm a little nervous about him, but I could recognize that that Green Bay could be a team that leans more on love. And there will be games where love just takes control of the offense. And he's been successful with it. So you're voting for Jacobs here.

I'll vote for Jacobs is the one with the most down. All right, Nico, London, Jacobs. We have a vote for London. We have a vote for Jacobs. Jamie,

what do you got? I mean, you can make a strong case for all three of these guys, you know, and I'll make the case for London just because I think they've done a good job of the other two. For me, Jacobs has the most downside,

but Collins clearly, I mean, you know, you're, you're asking him to, you know, do what he did again last year with a healthy tanked out back who was, you know, really starting to come on before the leg injury. And now the addition of Stefan Diggs and Dalton Schultz is still there.

And, and, you know, again, a better running back in my opinion, and Joe Mixon. So, you know, if, if Collins does not perform at the level that most people are expecting him to, and he's going to be the first Texans receiver drafted, then you could be clearly disappointed. So of these three, I would draft them London, Collins, Jacobs. But London, to me, is the one most upside, but probably the most downside, as Heath said, in terms of not having done this before. But I'll take London first. Collins last year in the seven games that both Tankdale and Nico Collins played more

than 50 percent of the snaps Collins averaged 7.4 targets per game so throw Stefan Diggs in the mix now that's that's a big downside argument you know Jamie just talked about I just wanted to give that number there because Dave said unless the the five days is just Noah Brown, you know what? She could be. Yeah. But like that 7.4 is still more than, than we've seen Drake London receive. Right. But now that was without digs.

That was just Nico and Dell. So I just wanted to, cause 7.4 was Dave said, London was around seven per game. So, right. Yeah. I thought it was relevant to bring that up there.

Did you know that Collins targets per game went down without Dell? There were five games without Dell and with CJ Stroud, and it was at 7.0. Oh, wow. That's the number I would use for Nico this year. Yeah, Nico did a lot of things that are not repeatable. He just had an unbelievable season, yards per target, yak, all that stuff. And targets could be hard to come by some weeks. So what exactly is the downside for Josh Jacobs, Dave?

The downside is that Green Bay's offense will have more games than not where they don't lean on him. Why? Because they've got Jordan Love, and they make him the focal point. I don't think there is necessarily a focal point of the Packers' offense. I think they can beat you with the run or the pass,

but I think push comes to shove. I think they like what they've got in Jordan Love, and I would imagine that as long as he plays like he did to end last season, no reason in the world to believe that they wouldn't lean on him in competitive games in the second half of competitive games this year. I don't worry about that at all. When it comes to Jacobs, I worry about Marshall Lloyd and him being better. That's another factor.

Sure. Better than AJ Dillon and, and, and a better compliment to what they've had the last couple of years. Cause you know, Jacobs is going to be the leading rusher and this is going to be an offense that scores a lot of points. And so he's still going to be a very good fantasy option.

I don't think he's going to be as involved in the passing game, which I think is going to hurt him. So you're going to rely on him as a runner and a touchdown producer. He'll, he'll, he'll do enough in the passing game, but just not, I think where we've seen him at his best,

which was in the Josh McDaniels tenure. But I do think that Lloyd is going to be a factor and Dylan from whatever reasons, unfortunately, it's going to be a factor as well. So I think it's more of a crowded backfield than people should anticipate. Okay. All right.

I don't think Jordan loves Ascension and the passing game improving is going to hurt Josh Jacobs. I think they're going to be very good at moving the football and that will help Jacobs. I think that could take attempts away from Josh Jacobs. Yeah, I disagree. Okay. Let's take a break here. When we come back, we'll talk about the top four tight ends. Who's got the most downside, the lowest floor among the top four tight ends. Then we'll have a couple more wide

receiver ones. And then we'll send you on your merry way to enjoy your Wednesday. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. With Smartwater's pure crisp taste, there's nothing to overthink. So while you may be spiraling over double texting your crush, whether your skincare routine is working because you look the same or is doing nothing because you look the same and whatever the heck red light therapy is, it's definitely not that. Don't overthink how you hydrate. Life's full of choices.

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McBride and Andrews, who has the most downside? Top four tight ends, Laporta, Kelsey, McBride, and Andrews. Dave Richard, I'm going to let you start. Who has the most downside? I will reluctantly say Trey McBride. Okay. I would also say Trey McBride. If. I would also say Trey McBride. If Marvin Harrison comes in and earns 10 plus targets a game

and McBride doesn't see his efficiency spike from last year, then he could be like a poor man's Evan Ingram. Jamie? I agree. It's McBride. Not really. He didn't win the upside argument yesterday, and he's losing the downside argument. I'm not really seeing a lot of reason for me to draft Trey McBride right now, guys.

Well, I mean, you're comparing him to three pretty good players. Yeah. It's a small sample size of what he did when Zach Ertz was gone. And part of that was with Kyler Murray back. But he was, you know, in the range of what the top tier guys was at over 14 PPR points per game during that time. But now you're adding Harrison. You know, again, you're bringing in Zay Jones for what that's worth. Hopefully a better Michael Wilson.

Greg Dortch is still going to be there. You know, James Conner, Trey Benson, the run game should be successful. And obviously Kyler is going to run as well. Andrews, prior to his injury, you can azure stat the Bengals game when he got hurt. He was on pace for over 14 PPR points per game. You know what Kelsey was.

Even a down year is still very good. Laporta is ascending in his second season based on what he showed as a rookie. McBride just makes the most sense. I guess I should say I'm not seeing a lot of reason to draft him higher than fourth. He's fourth for me. I think he loses the downside argument against Kincaid. No, I don't agree with that at all.

Yeah, like I said, for me, he's closer to Kincaid than he is to the top three. Right. And so if you had to say which one has more upside, full PPR, I would lean toward Kincaid because he's got a shot to be the number one guy in Josh Allen's offense. Yes, I see what you're saying. There is a better case to be made for Kincaid than there is for McBride. Heath, do you see it differently? Yeah, well, I don't have Kincaid as my fifth tight end.

I think, again, this is another one well, I don't have Kincaid as my fifth tight end. I think like we're, again, this is another one of those situations where Dalton Kincaid could have a breakout season and improve on everything he did last year and be a bust. Because we've really pumped him up based on where he was.

The downside for Dalton Kincaid is that he's still seeing a similar share of the targets and Dawson Knox is handling a lot of the, taking away a lot of the taking away a lot of the red zone work from him I think Dalton Kincaid's downside is tight in 14 well Dave I think when you said you were making the case for Kincaid against McBride it felt like you were

making more of an upside case but this is a Kincaid yeah but this is a downside with the downside theme who has more downside in your opinion? Like five targets a game for Kincaid. Yeah. Who has the lower floor, Kincaid or McBride? Kincaid. I guess we saw it last year. There were seven games with Joe Brady.

Kincaid averaged 5.7 targets per game and eight PPR points per game. Even if Trey McBride were getting 5.7 targets per game and eight PPR points per game. Even if, if Trey McBride were getting 5.7 targets per game, which I don't think that'll even be the number, even if Marvin Harrison's a rocket ship and McBride is second fiddle there. I think, I think McBride can be a little bit better than eight PPR points per game. So, you know what? I see Heath's point. Maybe there is a little bit more downside with Kincaid than there is with McBride, but they would both be low-end top 15-ish type of fantasy tight ends if that were to happen. The thing that I think that's interesting is what the target share is for McBride and what the

projection would be with Harrison, if that's a fair way to present it, versus what Kincaid's target chair was when Knox and Gabe Davis were out. Well, I got us, I sound coming off too negative on McBride. I like McBride. He may not have that huge upside. He may have some more downside compared to Kelsey Laporta and Andrews, but that could be more of just a statement about Kelsey Laporta and Andrews than a knock on McBride. So I don't want to leave it. I don't want to leave it. I know where it sounds like

I'm trashing Trey McBride guys really good and should definitely be top two on his team and targets. And who knows, maybe, maybe we're overrating Harrison and McBride's got more upside than we think. All right. Tank Dell, George Pickens, and Calvin Ridley. Who has the lowest floor here? Tank Dell, George Pickens, or Calvin Ridley? For me, it's Ridley. I think it's probably Ridley because he, like, you can parse last year from him in different ways, but I think he looked better later in the year than he did earlier in the year.

And some of that stuff with the touchdown seemed like rust and bad luck. But if he's really just slightly above average as a wide receiver and Will Levis is terrible, then the whole offense could just be awful. He could end up averaging below 12 PPR points per game, which would be pretty gross for Calvin Ridley. He was at 13.5 last year with Trevor, and that was a bad year for Ridley. He had a lot of targets. He had a ton of opportunities. He should have had better numbers. I worry. I love Tank Dell, man.

And I love that he and CJ Stroud seem to be on the same page. Their timing was great when they played last year. But I feel like the target crunch is going to hit him the most. In the nine games that he played with Stroud and Nico, he was averaging almost seven targets per game. It was 6.8. I got a hard time believing that Tank Dell is going to have that type of target volume from week to week with digs now there. So I, I, I just, I don't like Ridley's situation.

And so maybe I'll lean a step in that direction compared to Tank Dell, but I could see the case for Tank Dell as well. Put me down for Ridley, Very close between him and tank Dell. All right. Yeah. I mean, Ridley may not be the best receiver on his team. You know,

I know Deandre Hopkins seemingly lost a step, but he's got a rapport established with Will Levis already. Tyler Boyd is going to be, I think more of a factor than we anticipate. He's got a rapport with Brian Callahan coming in from Cincinnati. So he's going to know the offense a little bit better than his teammates, at least what Callahan wants to do. And,

you know, a proven guy and Ridley's the oldest of this trio by a significant margin, you know? And so was last year, the start of him starting to slip, maybe, you know, so it's,

it's a crowd of receiving core. So I don't really think that matters when you're comparing him to tank though and again i i just think the upside favors the other two guys by a significant margin right but it's the downside but that's the part of it though is that he's got the most downside of that right do you think that maybe ridley is the least big play dependent in this group? And Pickens is a guy that in two seasons in his career, he has 14 red zone targets in two seasons,

seven green zone targets, 11 end zone targets. He has two touchdowns in his career that are from inside of 22 yards, and he has only nine touchdowns in his career, George Pickens. So, I mean, I'm pretty excited about Pick pickens but that part i don't love about him he's not so far has not been a red zone guy i don't think his team has had a lot of red zone targets either though well like they've thrown 29 touchdown passes or something the last two years it's true but that i mean this is really really low uh and most of his touchdowns are big plays. I mean, seven of his nine touchdowns are 22 or more yards, and then it's even 40 or more yards. He's got a bunch of those.

I don't know. I'm a little scarred by Jalen Waddell, I guess, who was pretty big play dependent. A big play machine in his No, you gotta get Jalen Waddell azerstatted quickly. machine in his set in his no you gotta you gotta get j you gotta get jaylen wattle azar statted like quickly i've oh i i've azar sat of the heck out of jaylen wattle but i'm just like he was the

same guy last year he just left a bunch of games injured no there's 15.2 fantasy points per game to 15.6 fantasy points per game in games that he was healthy i mean pickens was a big play threat guy with with two quarterbacks now that will make big plays. And what he did without Deontay Johnson last year was a pretty telling situation. You're not correctly azerstatting Jalen Waddell because he was even better than that the year before.

Remember, Tua missed a lot of games. And he was horrible without Tua. And that hurt him. He was not nearly as good as he was last year. The big plays were just not there. That was the thing. He didn't make nearly as many splash plays. I don't think he was 100% all year. He wasn't.

But you do have to be, I think, a little bit nervous about guys that are so reliant on big plays, and that is George Pickens. It has been Pickens. I don't think it will be the same case moving forward. Good, me either. All right, Devontae Smith, T. Higgins, Cooper Cup is our last one. Devontae Smith, T. Higgins, and Cooper Cup.

Who has the most downside? I do want to give a stat about Cooper Cup. He comes off of, well, he misses the first four games. His first two games, he has 118 and 148 yards. And then his last 11 games, including the playoffs, Cooper Cup averaged 45.3 yards per game and six yards per target. Yuck. So, Devontae Smith, T. Higgins, Cooper Cup.

Heath, I'll let you start. Who has the most downsides? Before Heath answers, I know we're not factoring injury. Are we assuming T. Higgins is playing week one? Yeah, let's just put him on the Bengals. Everything's peachy keen. Okay. Oh, I didn't answer.

I answered T. Higgins because I didn't know which imaginary universe that we were in. But I don't think everything's peachy keen. And this is a guy that when he's been okay with his contract, he comes out of like 40% of the games that he plays. It seems like, so I have real, I think it's fair if we get to July with both of these situations still hanging overhead to start having some questions just about if things are going to be okay in Cincinnati this year. But I've got real worries about Higgins

because the Bengals seem much more likely to just take care of Chase and leave Higgins where he's at. Okay, that's fair. Why don't you give me two answers then? Let's do the T. Higgins got a contract extension before the season. Then I'd probably say Devontae Smith. Okay. Dave?

I mean, couldn't we also make the argument that T. Higgins is going to be focused on putting up the best numbers of his career because he knows he's in a contract here and he's going to be a free agent and he wants to be paid like Nico Collins plus. You could, you could, you just did. That was a good argument. I think if everybody's situation is perfect, where there's no injuries to them, their teammates, et cetera, I'm going to say Smith has the most downside. And we've seen it from Smith over the last two seasons. When A.J. Brown and Goddard are healthy, he's averaging around 12 PPR points per game. When they're out, it's like 20, especially Goddard. He's been the key.

When Goddard's been out, man, Devontae Smith's been amazing. But I think that if everybody's healthy, I think T. Higgins can beat that. I think he can beat 12 PPR points per game. I'm going to use the same argument that Dave gave for Smith for Cup because we saw last year was somebody that was maybe better than him and his numbers cratered to what Adam gave us. How healthy was he? We don't know. But when there was finally somebody of significant competition, and I don't think Robert Woods

at the end of his Rams tenure was as good as Puka last year. I think that goes without saying fair. So, you know, the, the upgrade over the number one receiver, I think is there. And so, you know, has, has Puka surpassed cup as the go-to guy for Matthew Stafford? I think that's the case. We'll find out if that's proven or not. But if that is the case, then while Smith might be third, and you can make a case Smith might be fourth now with the addition of Barkley there.

You know, so Brown, Goddard, and Barkley might be in better standing than Smith is from a touch standpoint when you factor in everything, including Barkley's role in the passing game. That even Kup in the second role on this Rams offense, or even the third role with what they do with the running backs, then it could be worse for him. So I'll take Cup at his age as the moment with the most downside. Assuming Higgins is right.

So we basically got a vote for each of them, and then sort of an amended Devontae Smith vote for Heath on the T. Higgins contract extension scenario. It is really amazing how much of an impact Dallas Goddard has had on Devontae Smith's targets. It's just surprising almost. Three games, Dave alluded to it. I mean, three games he played without Dallas Goddard,

he faced the Chiefs, the Bills, and the Niners. It wasn't exactly the easiest competition. And Devontae Smith had eight or more targets, 96 or more yards in all three games. He scored two touchdowns. And with Goddard, weeks one through nine and 14 through 17, he was on pace for 111 targets. It's not going to get it done. If Barkley is close to peak Barkley, how do you defend the Eagles?

Try to outscore them. Probably a lot of zone. Barkley, yeah. I mean, Barkley, we didn't talk about. I didn't bring this to that. I've said it before, but is he peak Barkley? Can he still be peak Barkley? He had seven carries of 40 or more yards as a rookie.

He has six in the last five seasons since then. He hasn't been peak Barkley since his rookie year. Yeah, I mean, he's going to have, you know, maybe not 40 yard runs, but he's going to have a lot of just wide holes open for him with that offensive line that he hasn't had in years. Maybe ever.

Oh yeah. Much better. So there there's, they're scary. And they'll win the division is the Dallas, obviously not going to win the division. It's no team ever wins it back to back. It's been 20 years since teams won in consecutive years,

something like that. So Eagles in the playoffs. All right, guys. Thank you very much. Drew Locke to Malik Nabors has a lot of appeal for the Giants. I think the Commanders are a sneaky, very sneaky team. Agreed. Much scarier than the Giants for sure.

Both those teams added some good veterans, but Washington seemed to add more of them. That makes me feel a little bit better about their overall defense. I think you could put those two teams together and they wouldn't be a threat to the Eagles. You know, I've already rehearsed in my head. The here's why the Giants might be good conversation.

I'm not going to have it now, but I'm ready to have it now but i'm ready to have it uh so you know don't forget i assume that's how you go to sleep each night surprising for you that you think the giants will be good no it would put me to sleep i don't think they will i don't think they will but they could i'll just say this they could have three pro bowlers on their defensive line and you will you have that, you could surprise people. And a pro bowl quarterback. Drew Luck. Yeah, and a pro bowl wide receiver.

Okay, everybody. You see the Jets have a new running back. Oh, they needed that. Who is their new running back? Tariq Cohen is now a Jet. You agree with this comment? Imagine if Adam was a Cowboys fan, the show would be unbearable.

I mean, is it any worse than the Giants love? Yeah, Cowboys fans are just brutal. Come on, we all know that. Giants fans are great. They have something positive. Sometimes their team is good. With you, it's just like everybody just laughs about it. It'd be unbearable.

Imagine if one of us is a fan of a really good team and we're just smug about it. Sometimes the Giants win the Super Bowl. Most of the Cowboys fans listening to this podcast don't even know what that experience is like. All right, we're out of here. We'll talk to you tomorrow with regression candidates in 2024. And sorry, Cowboys fans, please don't listen to other podcasts.

I love you. We'll talk to you. Like, I'm all rooting for the stars. Go Stars. See ya.