Fantasy Football Today - Draft These RBs! Breakouts and Must-Haves (08/18 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 18, 2022

Donate to St. Jude as part of our Draft-A-Thon! Bid on pre-draft calls with our experts, a spot in our Podcast League, a guest spot on our show and more! https://ebay.to/3p4Dc3Z Chris Harris of HarrisFootball.com joins us to talk about the running backs you need to draft! We love Aaron Jones in the middle of Round 2, and Dave has A.J. Dillon as a breakout. Chris doesn't understand why Alvin Kamara isn't a slam dunk first round pick, and he is also high on Nick Chubb (7:35). Who else do we like? Any disagreements?  Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. We've got to have some Packers running backs in our lineups. You're going to hear about A.J. Dillon, Aaron Jones as good values. One of them a potential breakout here in 2022. Welcome to the Breakouts Bonanza, second episode of the day. You heard Tara Roberts talk quarterbacks. Now we've got Chris Harris joining us to talk running backs. Chris is from HarrisFootball.com.

You can follow him on Twitter at HarrisFootball, host of the Harris Football podcast. If I say Harris Football three times in a mirror, do you appear? What's going on, Chris? I just mostly name things after myself so that people keep having to say my last name. That's really what I'm after.

I've been trying for years to make this Acer football today, but there's a lot of politics involved here. But Dave Richard and Heath Cummings are also here on the show to talk about our favorite running backs. And why don't we start with this, because we're going to have about 15, 20 minutes on the show. I want everybody to give me two either breakout running backs

or must-have running backs. Heath, you can start. Two breakouts or must-haves? I'll give you one of each. Aaron Jones has turned into a must-have running backs heath you can start two breakouts or must-haves i'll give you one of each aaron jones has turned into a must-have running back for me because i've got him as an end of the first round running back he is often available in the middle of the second and so he is someone who gets drafted in a high percentage of my leagues i think there's an underrated chance that he will lead the packers in receptions yeah he has been phenomenal whenever Devontae Adams has not been there.

Aaron Rodgers said it just recently. They've got to have their best 11 on the field. That's going to include both Jones and Dillon most of the time. And your breakout? J.K. Dobbins. And this one might be a week four breakout or a week five breakout. But as good as he's going to be when he's back to 100%,

it will be worth the wait. This is a guy who averaged six yards per carry in college, six yards per carry his rookie year for the Ravens. It's an offense that generates productive running backs. Devontae Freeman wouldn't have been able to play in the NFL last year anywhere else. It made him almost passable for half of the season. And what I really liked about that was they spent all last off season showing us videos of J.K. Dobbins catching the football and, hey, we're going to throw to our running backs more. They were actually throwing to Tyson Williams and Devonta Freeman. They planned on doing that. They're going to do it this year with Dobbins. In a full PPR league, Heath, which would in theory

be his worst format, when are you comfortable drafting J.K. Dobbins? I am comfortable at the end of round four right now. If they told me J.K. Dobbins is a full go, there's no concern at all. I'd be there at the 3-4 turn. All right. So Aaron Jones, by the way, to piggyback off something Heath said, over the last three seasons, Devontae Adams has missed seven games, left another one early. In those eight games, Aaron Jones has been on pace for 85 catches, 969 yards, 11 touchdowns. All right, Dave Richard, you are up. Give me a running back. Give me two running backs, breakouts, or must-haves. I'm going to do the same thing as Heath.

I'm going to give you the must-have first. And I think Alvin Kamara is going to be pretty good this year. And we're sleeping on him a little bit. In the past, he's been an easy top six overall pick. We've loved him because of the targets, the catches he gets, the versatility, double digits and touchdowns. I think all that stuff is on the table for him. Again, maybe lower the expectations for the catches. Instead of him getting 80 plus, I think he'll be around 65, but you can set your watch to 1,300 total yards and double-digit

touchdowns with him. I think he'll be there again. I don't think he's going to be suspended. And last year when he was playing with Jameis Winston, his target share was higher than his previous career high in target share. And he's talked a little bit about how, well, the Saints aren't going to pass that much this year. Man, go back and look at the Saints offense the last five years. Four out of the five years, they've been below 550 pass attempts, and Alvin Kamara's been just fine pretty much every single time. I'm taking him in late round one in full PPR half ppr and non-ppr now the breakout that i like is a.j dillon because i think aaron jones is great and he's had these amazing games without

davante adams on the field but those games came without a.j dillon on the field too at least i think most of them did and last year we saw it when a.j dillon and aaron jones were healthy this is back when the packers needed to get A.J. Dillon a little bit more involved because Aaron Jones was beat up. Aaron Jones was beating him in targets by about two per game. Dillon was beating Jones in carries per game by about two per game. And their fantasy point totals were fairly close. Jones was ahead, and I would draft Jones ahead of Dillon.

But I think Dillon's got a shot to be a great number two fantasy running back while Aaron Jones is healthy. And if Aaron Jones misses time or if he stinks or whatever, AJ Dylan's going to be a league winner taking him in round five. All right. Let's hope by the way, when we say around in case you're new to the show, we're usually talking about always talking about 12 team leagues.

Let's hope we didn't steal all of Chris's people. I know that Dave and Heath actually did not have the list that you provided me, but they did pick a number of your players. Oh, no. Yeah. No, it's great. Great. I agree.

So, go ahead. The Kamara pick in particular, I just don't understand it. I think we have, like, okay, I understand why Kamara's rank was low to start because we thought he was going to get suspended. If he's not, what changed? He's a great player. He should be a top five fantasy pick, basically. I love him.

Love him in the first round. Me too. What do you guys make of how inefficient he was last year? I think 3.7 yards per carry. Was that just fluky? Because he was always an absolute star in that stat, Chris. Don't care. Yards per carry is a garbage stat.

Get him out. Get this guy out of here. It's a trailing stat. It's not an indicator. It's a reflection. So it's a reflection not on what he did, but on what that offense was, which was pretty bad without a real quarterback. Do you know that he had a game last year with 0.63 yards per carry?

Wow. Did they win? I wonder if they won. They lost 26-7 to the Carolina Panthers. All right. Give me another name then. You love Camara. Who else do you want to talk about, Chris?

Hold on. I want to know the names he agrees with and if there's any he disagrees with. Dobbins and Camara. Yeah, Dobbins was on the list. I'm sort of with Heath. I need to see a little more. Fortunately,

I don't think we're drafting yet. Right. So we get a couple more weeks of information. I don't have Dobbins really even as high as the CBS ADP right now, but he is a truly special player if he's right. And there's a big question if he's right. Like John Harbaugh already like through cold water and said, okay,

I still am not positive. He's ready. Week one. Like, we don't know. We really don't know. He hasn't taken hits yet. We're going to see the next couple of weeks. But if we do, I definitely can see getting him up to running back 15, 16, something like that. And and if he is ADP will on CBS will be right about where I am. OK, I'll give you guys some ADP. Just he's RB 20. I for running backs, I just most basically sorry, I'm give these guys some ADP. He's RB20. For running backs, I just most basically, sorry, I'm stuttering here, used fantasy pros. He's RB22 in full PPR.

It's going to change. Because the thing about the CBS ADP is it accounts for all formats, and Dobbins is going to be one of those guys that's going to be pretty format-dependent, but as he said, could catch more passes than you think this year. Another, Ramondre Stevenson is also on the list that Chris gave me. We can talk about him a little bit later. Nick Chubb.

I do want to talk about that because Nick Chubb, you're going to make the case for, we had a bust show earlier today, and he was one of Heath's busts. Sorry, we're recording this on Wednesday night. I know you're watching or listening on Thursday most likely, but on Wednesday, Nick Chubb showed up in the bust episode. What's your case for Nick Chubb can't perform to the Nick Chubb levels. It's because he's not going to have Deshaun Watson. It's because, oh my God, he might not have Jimmy Garoppolo. It might just

be a very obvious offense, what they're going to do. Nick Chubb has gotten hurt in the past. My case for is that Nick Chubb is the best running back in the league. And I want that guy on my team because I trust that he'll overcome most circumstances. He's a league winner, three or four game winner, three or four weeks a year guaranteed because he's huge most circumstances. He's a league winner, three or four game winner, three or four weeks a year guaranteed because he's huge and fast. And I just don't believe that offense will have a subpar running game no matter what the circumstances. It's the NFL of 2022. And the fact that they have a second running back shouldn't scare us anymore we're past the days of ladani and tomlinson i've seen both chubb and hunt be good over the long term

you get a little bumpiness sometimes but uh i just i think nick chubb is the best running back in the league and i'm taking him towards the end of the first round 12th 8th and 11th that's where he finished in ppr on a points per game basis each of the past three years. You're drafting him close to that floor. Well, okay, sorry Chris, we'll let Heath jump in too, but you're taking him at the end of round one in non-PPR,

half PPR, full PPR? So full PPR, I think I have him 14 so okay, you know, but if I'm picking 12, I don't have the choice of picking 14, so I'm either going to take him or not But if I'm picking 12, I don't have the choice of picking 14. So I'm either going to take him or not take him. And I think then it comes down to maybe what you want roster composition wise, right? The thing that I'm sort of blown away by with all ADPs, fantasy pros and fantasy football calculator and CBS is that in standard leagues, in non-PPR leagues where you're getting nothing and Chubb's supposed to suffer in PPR leagues,

he's still the pick 16, he's still the pick 15 or something. I do not understand the format that's supposed to be his bailiwick, because we're not going to rely on him to catch a ton of passes. Why would you turn up your nose at 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns? Heath Cummings. Heath? Yeah, I think I've got him projected for 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns? Heath Cummings. Heath? Yeah, I think I've got him projected for 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns. So non-PPR, I've got him right at the one-two turn.

Okay. I mean, I have him, I think, five or six. Okay. Higher. Like the only words Chris didn't say were Jacoby Brissett. And I understand because Jacoby Brissett's a scary two words to put together for an offensive football team. It's been fantasy poison in the past.

And that's my concern is, yeah, listen, I think Chubb should be relatively efficient. But as Chris talked about, like yards per carry and how efficient he's been in the past was also part of the product of having a great offensive line he's already lost his center and having at least a somewhat competent offense and i'm afraid it won't be somewhat competent with jacoby brissett but nick chubb might overcome that okay all right uh we got a lot more to talk about here let's take a quick break on fantasy football today and also uh did i talk about the draft-a-thon yet? I don't think I have.

No, why don't you? Make sure you watch the draft-a-thon. Chris Harris will be there. He'll be dropping in. We're going to have a bunch of industry guests for six hours on August 31st to talk fantasy football and just to have fun, goof around,

do a draft with the viewers. It's all on youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. Actually, the first two hours are on CBS Sports HQ, and then the last four are on youtube.com slash fantasy football today. Actually, the first two hours are on CBS Sports HQ, and then the last four are on youtube.com slash fantasy football today. It's all benefiting St. Jude.

That's the most important thing. We're going to raise a ton of money for St. Jude, so we want you to be a part of it. Now we're going to take a quick break. When we come back, we still have some more running backs to talk about right here on FFT. So we love Aaron Jones. I'm not going to say much in this episode. I'm just going to say this, that in a full PPR league,

if Aaron Jones is really going in the middle of the first round, he will be my most drafted player. He will be the centerpiece of my draft. Middle of the second round, you mean? What did I say? First. You said first. Sorry about that.

Middle of the second round. Thank you. And it will actually encourage me probably to take Justin Jefferson in the middle of the first round and come back and get a first-round caliber running back in the middle of the first round and come back and get a first round caliber running back in the middle of the second round. I just mean, I, in a PPR league, I cannot believe Aaron Jones is available 18th, 19th, 20th overall. Um, that's pretty much all you're going to hear from me. Uh, we talked about Aaron Jones, JK Dobbins. We've got some later guys for Heath. Let's talk about these three Clyde Edwards-Ziller, Chase Edmonds,

and Damian Pierce. And Heath, give me your thoughts on them. And what do you see them as? You see them as RB2s, you see them as RB3s or flexes rather, Clyde Edwards-Ziller, Chase Edmonds, and Damian Pierce. I have moved Clyde back and I've been a ping pong ball with Clyde this year. I've moved him back into the RB2 discussion. I think it's really good news for him that Isaiah Pacheco is the clear number two running back. Not anything against Pacheco, but it's a seventh round running back. I was concerned they brought Ronald Jones in

because they didn't want to use Clyde as much on early downs. That was the only place I thought Ronald Jones might really help. And so I'm willing to hope that maybe he could stay healthy for 15 games this year. He's had some struggles with that, but I think he's a 15 to 18 touch running back

on one of the top six to eight offenses in the NFL with 50 catch upside. And maybe they will even decide to have a second game where they use him inside the five-yard line. It didn't work out the first game of his career. They did it a little bit at one point last season. He was kind of splitting evenly with Darrell Williams. Then he got hurt.

But they don't have Darrell Williams. And Williams has gotten so many of their goal line carries the last couple of years. So that role is up for grabs, Heath. That's an underrated thing here with Clyde Edwards-wards ziller he might not be iced out of that um would you and then how would you rank edwards ziller edmunds and damian pierce at this point that is exactly how i have them ranked right now edmunds and pierce both kind of similar things i don't think they're actually going to be work horse running backs but i do think they're both going to be the clear lead running backs on their own teams um and somewhere in between high end

flexes and low end number two running backs but they get drafted closer to rb30 or in pierce's case rb36 chris uh dave also has damian pierce as one of his guys breakout or must have running backs you have remandre stevenson uh do you like damian Pierce or Ramondre Stevenson? Stevenson. Yeah. And this is probably a, just a bias against rookies. I just don't think we really know what these guys are until we see them play. I don't think we knew what Stevenson was until we got to see him play. And I don't know about breakout when it comes to Stevenson, but then again, I don't know about breakout when it comes to Pierce either. I'm not sure the texans have a breakout uh running back in their arsenal this year uh i don't think stevenson like immediately vaults over damian harris or anything i just think there's enough work for both of them to be

to be fine and i think steven because stevenson goes later i think he just sort of i what the names i tried to give were kind of outperform the adp i like the value uh i think steven should be stevenson should be a top 100 fantasy type player. In a lot of cases, he's not being treated that way. He's not a starter. I'm taking him from my fantasy bench. But big guy with pretty good feet. All this noise about he does the James White role.

I mean, it was like one two-minute drill, and he caught a couple of passes. And the poor tweeter was like, in that play, he kind of did the james white roll and that was sure run with um you know he's not james white he might catch the ball pretty well he had a couple of nice moments where the defense kind of fell down around him and he ran a long way after a screen screen pass there's a chance for a little bit of that i wouldn't be counting on massive ppr production from from either of the big running backs new england but i if i were starting a team, just an NFL team, and you gave me a choice between Damian Harris and Ramondur Stevenson, I think Stevenson's got a wider variety of things he can do well.

If that offense really is going in the direction of Shanahan Jr. and you're going to do some wide zone, you're going to have to run to the sideline and cut up field a little bit, Damian Harris can't do that. And I really think Ramondurvenson may be able to so he'll he'll be on some of my teams if i can get him like eighth round something like that okay we've talked about a lot of players here uh it's clyde eberd ziller damian pierce uh chase edmonds and ramondre stevenson are any of them ahead of josh jacobs for any of you not for me no nope i have clyde and josh back to back how many of them are are ahead of antonio gibson as of wednesday night august 17th

probably for me none still because i'm trying not to let one you know punishment and a punt drill be the reason that i completely screw up my ranks i mean it could be trending in the direction where a couple of them might get ahead of gibson for me uh just clyde i think i have gibson just ahead of edmunds dave i i kind of put clyde clyde's not in the same boat as as antonio gibson but I think he's on the dock Chris knows about yachts so I think that this is this is this is pretty comparable here uh I think of Edwards Hilaire struggles I've I've seen I've heard enough about Pacheco to be optimistic that he could have a role even if Edwards Hilaire is good um I liked the very little that I saw from him in the preseason games in terms of his own athletic ability.

I didn't study him at Rutgers. It's probably something that's on my list of things to do that I'm never going to get to. So I hope I see a lot more of him in the preseason, and then I can make a better judgment without having to lean on how he did in a completely different offense with a completely different team and a completely different coach. But I think the Chiefs are looking to get something going with their run game.

And I think they'll give Clyde a chance, which I don't know we can say for sure with Washington at this point because if Gibson keeps screwing up, Robinson isn't spectacular. He's solid, but he doesn't fumble. And that might be enough for Ron Rivera to say, okay, let's just put the kid in there on rushing downs and see what he can do. And I wonder if Edwards-Hilaire struggles. Andy Reid says, let's put the kid in there and see what he can do.

And it's Pacheco alongside Jarek McKinnon. I think he's got blinders for Jarek McKinnon. I think McKinnon's going to matter in this offense. I think he's going to end up playing some significant passing downs. He only played one snap against Chicago. It was in the red zone. It was on, I believe it was on the play they scored. He was on the field. He only played one snap against Chicago. It was in the red zone. I believe it was on the play they scored. He was on the field.

He was running a route. But we know that he was a big part of what they were in the postseason last year. What could really be bad in both Washington and Kansas City is that they've got three guys working for them all the time. And fantasy managers are left going, I can't start these guys as anything more than desperation flexes or number three RBs or bi-week replacements. Do we think Clyde Edwards-Lair is good?

My biggest worry is that he's just not that good. I think he got picked sooner than he should have. Yes, but where he's being drafted, I don't think there's a whole lot of good. Where he's being drafted or where you're willing to draft him? What do you mean? What's his ADP? Round seven? Okay, I'd be willing to take him in round seven.

Yeah, I mean, I thought he was a little higher than that. Yeah, me too. Yeah, no, he's got good value. And I think he would take him higher than round seven. All right, Dave, we've got to wrap it up here. So, Travis Etienne, give me 30 seconds on Etienne. Then I got one last thing for Chris Harris. Go ahead, Travis Etienne.

And I don't think we're selling Etienne short by just giving him only 30 seconds because I think most people know what to expect. He's got a great profile to be a massive factor as a passing dunce back in Jacksonville. We've got big questions about how well they'll be able to run the football with James Robinson, who I do like as a sleeper because you can get him in round 10 plus. But I think ETN's got a shot at leading the Jaguars in catches, leading all running backs in catches, and having a lot of breakaway plays.

He's not big, but he's fast. And they're going to put the ball in his hands in space and let him go. I disagree with him being a round three pick, but as a round four pick or maybe even round five in PPR, man, I don't see how you can pass that up. All right, Chris, final question for you here. You've got two late round guys, Daryl Henderson and Khalil Herbert on your list of must haves or breakouts. Uh, who do you prefer Daryl Henderson and Khalil Herbert? If you only had room for one of those guys, who would you take? Well, Henderson's getting drafted and Herbert's kind of not, it's really about price about price right I probably prefer Herbert as a player I for the

you know three plus games that David Montgomery missed with the Bears last year I thought Herbert looked like a stud I did a lot of film review of him on my YouTube channel and basically just think that he's potentially starting running back in the league. I think Daryl Henderson's probably not that, but I think you're probably likelier to get a bigger workload right away with Henderson as some part of some timeshare with the Rams. So there's probably more reason to think you can use Henderson in a league sooner than you can use Herbert. I don't mind stashing both of them at the end of a bench.

Henderson's much more like a, you know, 10th, 11th round pick. Herbert's essentially free. You're at the end. You're picking players. You're understanding that Montgomery's probably the man. If you get surprised that he's not, okay, that's great. But I don't expect to see Herbert climb out of the round 12, 13, 14. All right, get that guitar. I finally have the lyrics to the sweater song parody. Just the chorus. Let's give this a shot all right before the show started chris was playing sweater song by weezer we couldn't think of anything that rhymed with anything let's give it a shot go ahead wait wait all right if you want to make your team better. Draft these running backs on draft day.

Thank you. Thank you, everybody. This has been Fantasy Football Today. For Chris Harris, Dave Richard, and Heath Cummings, I'm Adam Azer. Album drops next week. We'll see you later.