Fantasy Football Today - DYNASTY! Also NFL News and Rumors (03/03 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: March 3, 2022

Get ready for some dynasty talk as Dave and Heath try to make a trade on the show! Kareem Hunt for an early second round pick in the rookie draft? Also, Dave gives some basic dynasty trade advice that... Adam pushes back against (8:55) ... We'll cover the NFL news and notes (13:40) with plenty of rumors coming out of the NFL Combine. Rob Gronkowski to the Bills? All of the veteran QBs staying put? Then it's back to the dynasty chatter (23:50) as we touch on the incoming rookies and if any of them are instantly Top 12 dynasty picks ... Our thoughts on Jameis Winston's dynasty value (28:40), D'Andre Swift vs. Javonte Williams vs. Christian McCaffrey (30:45) plus the state of the RB position in dynasty, how to rank three young stud WRs (37:40) and how much upside a couple of mid-tier TEs have (46:00). Finally we propose some dynasty trades (53:25) and debate which side to take ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:59 BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. Tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.
Starting point is 00:01:21 Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. It is a Dynasty episode of Fantasy Football today. If you're not in a Dynasty league, you should listen anyway. We're talking about trade values for players and what we think about them for 2022 and beyond. Plus, we have a ton of news items from the NFL Combine. Coaches, GMs have been speaking, a lot of quarterback notes to get to. And Heath Cummings wants to make a trade on the air that I think would be with Dave Richard in their Dynasty League.
Starting point is 00:01:51 So, Heath, the floor is yours. Yeah, we've tried this before and haven't been able to pull it off. But I think we're in a unique situation now to where Dave has a glut of running backs in our dynasty league. I have a glut of rookie draft picks in our dynasty league. And I just wonder like if he's going to start all those running backs. Now Dave,
Starting point is 00:02:21 if you'll remember tanked last year. And so right now in his starting lineup, Jarrett Patterson and Jeff Wilson are his starting running backs. And those are not the running backs I'm interested in trading for. But he has David Montgomery. He has Elijah Mitchell. He has Tony Pollard. He has Cam Akers, Michael Carter, Kareem Hunt.
Starting point is 00:02:43 That's six running backs. Yeah. He could use some more youth on his roster. How about a little love for Jake Funk, by the way? No, no love for Jake Funk. He's on the team, too. Crickets. Jake Funk crickets.
Starting point is 00:03:01 He will not be on the team once Dave has to cut his roster down to make room for his 2022 draft picks. All right, Heath. So what are we thinking here? Let's make a trade. Let's make it out.
Starting point is 00:03:10 You Dave, you definitely need to make a trade. I don't, I don't have to make a trade. No, Dave, I think the easiest way to go about this would you just tell me like, which,
Starting point is 00:03:20 cause all of your running backs are kind of in the same range as well. Yeah. I don't know that you necessarily have a top 10 running back. like which because all of your running backs are kind of in the sameish range as well yeah um i don't know that you necessarily have a top 10 running back and i think you have like seven top 30 running backs so who are the running backs that you value the least amongst your running backs like i'm just want to trade for the cheaper ones this is i think there's this is trade strategy 101 if there's three or four guys that you don't really see a big difference between on someone's roster at the same position, just ask them who's the cheapest. But I also know that running back depth is important in fantasy football.
Starting point is 00:03:55 It's kind of been, I might as well have it tattooed on my back at this point. Yeah. point yeah so i don't i don't necessarily want to give it up especially considering the fact that as you said heath i don't have i don't have that gem you know psa 10 style running back for my lineup i've got a bunch of guys that are startable for sure and a couple that could become potentially gems i think you look at acres you look at carter elijah mitchell like they've got a chance even though we can make the case against all three of the cheapest dave let's go make the trade already you didn't mention you didn't mention dave montgomery is he cheaper than mitchell and carter and he might be um i also kind of don't want to let you know which one i think is the cheapest well see this is the thing that just chaps like rule one Oh one.
Starting point is 00:04:46 Here we go. Completing a trade. If we're not going to have open lines of communication, then we're not going to be able to put a deal. Like if we can't talk about how we value players, I didn't put, what's the point of even trying to negotiate? I think the better thing for you to do is for you to rank those running
Starting point is 00:05:02 backs. You don't have to tell me about it you i've already ranked those running backs multiple places online you have to click like three links to find how i view those running back well that's not gonna help a lot of mysteries let's all out there all right well he says he wants the cheapest one okay so i would say that kareem hunt is the one that you have ranked the lowest of that bunch and i will give away this information kareem Hunt is the one that you have ranked the lowest of that bunch. And I will give away this information. Kareem Hunt is the one that I would be most willing to trade from that group. Heath, what would you like to give up for Kareem Hunt?
Starting point is 00:05:35 If you're offering me 101 for Kareem Hunt, I think I will say yes. I do have both 101 and 102 in that league. I will take both of those for Kareem Hunt. Adam, that's a deal. Neither of those are available. Damn it. I would probably, though, give up an early second-round pick for Kareem Hunt.
Starting point is 00:05:57 And what I would tell you is that's a no for now, but if there's a player that slides in our rookie-only draft and I'm like, oh, I got to have him, you know, like I felt about Paris Campbell once upon a time. What a trade that was between us, Heath. Oh, my God. Then maybe I would give up Kareem Hunt for that early second-round pick, but for now, no, I would not do it just for the early second.
Starting point is 00:06:19 So you think you have six running backs that are worth a first-round pick in the rookie draft? It doesn't matter if I think that they're worth a first or a second- round pick or not i'm not willing to trade off kareem hunt just for a pick that i don't necessarily have a plan on yeah i couldn't even tell you i couldn't even tell you how i've ranked the running backs and receivers in this rookie class yet so once again once if i if i get to a point where I see 15, this is a 14-team dynasty league, and I'm
Starting point is 00:06:48 assuming that you're offering the first pick in round two. I'm not sure if I even have that one. Right. I don't know. You've got all the picks. I have the first or the second. It's 14 teams. Let's say it's the second pick in round two. That means I would have to have a ranked list of 16 rookies that I would rather have than Kareem Hunt
Starting point is 00:07:03 for me to make that trade. And right now, I don't have that list. I don't even know who's won for me. Yeah. Okay, I think that's interesting, though. I mean, that's a fair trade offer. It's a good range. And what about, yeah.
Starting point is 00:07:17 I do think we should maybe explore that a little bit further. Are you saying that you would just never trade? Like, you traded Tom Brady for the 14th pick in the draft without knowing who was going to be in the draft. I didn't know it was going to be the 14th, little bit further are you saying that you would just never trade like you traded tom brady for the 14th pick in the draft without knowing who was going to be i didn't know it was going to be the 14th and i probably would have done it even if i did know that it was the 14th but you didn't know who your 14th ranked player was then but you were willing to take the draft
Starting point is 00:07:36 pick yeah because i was trading a player who i knew didn't have much time left in the league i didn't know he was down to like singledigit games by the time I traded him. I assumed Brady would play at least one more year. I figured, okay, this is a depreciating asset. I had Joe Burrow, and I was tanking. Kareem Hunt is also a depreciating asset. I agree. Okay.
Starting point is 00:07:59 All right, we're on to something here, folks. We'll keep you updated. Let's get to the NFL draft first. No, for now. I'm not slamming the door in Heath's face. What about a late first for David Montgomery? I'm probably more interested in the hunt for the second
Starting point is 00:08:15 than I am for Montgomery in the first. What is a late first? If that late first is like, what, 10th? If I got a list of 10 rookies that I love, gotta have, and Montgomery is the price I have to pay to get one of them, I would do it. But David, or David, why did I say David?
Starting point is 00:08:31 Gabriel Davis is the guy that I had to part with last year to just move up in our rookie draft to get Michael Carter because I wanted Michael Carter that badly. And now I feel kind of like a dope because Gabriel Davis. You feel like a dope for trading Gabriel Davis for Michael Carter? No, he got Gabriel Davis and another pick. Yeah, it was Davis and another pick.
Starting point is 00:08:50 It was just to move up. Oh, okay, okay. And I think it was to move up like three or four spots. It wasn't even like a huge move up. I might be wrong on that. All right, let me promote a few things here. Schrager usually tells me what to promote. He didn't tell me today.
Starting point is 00:09:04 He's off today. So we can promote whatever the hell we want. We're going to have a March Madness bracket challenge to get into the podcast league. We'll let you know about that. I'll send out a link when I create the March Madness challenge. Fill out your bracket. I think Heath did really well last year, if I recall.
Starting point is 00:09:30 Yeah, that's what i recall as well one of these last two years i think he did really well so i want thousands of people in this last year we didn't have that many if i recall something like 800 that's really weak i want thousands of people in this and a really big bracket challenge and cbs is the best place to do it. That's all we really have to promote. Dave Heath and I were talking about our favorite In Excess songs before the show started. If you're watching on YouTube and you want to comment with your favorite song by In Excess, please do. And we were talking about the TV show Euphoria. So maybe we'll get to that at the end of today's show.
Starting point is 00:09:58 Dave has controversial Dynasty advice that I don't think you should listen to. I think this is really bad advice. It goes against everything I believe in. Dave, do you still believe in this thing that you tweeted yesterday? Don't offer a deal that you wouldn't accept yourself. That wasn't the
Starting point is 00:10:13 original tweet. I just don't think you want to see the original tweet or say it. You can see it all you want. I don't have a bleep button. I don't want to make you edit. What was what? Don't offer crappy deals or something yeah right that's fine don't offer crap we'll say crap okay that's a lot and so this this all started with cal shoemaker posting a uh a tweet about what what are the what should be the 10 commandments of dynasty was it dynasty
Starting point is 00:10:41 trade advice i think it was and that was my knee-jerk response is don't offer crap and when i say that it's it's offering your fourth round pick for david montgomery in a dynasty league making an offer that you know has 0.0 percent of a chance of getting accepted but you offer it anyway just to initiate trade talks. I'm using air quotes for people that are listening. All right. It's a horrible thing to do. If you want to initiate trade talks, offer a deal that you would conceivably accept if it were offered to you. Put that deal out there. It doesn't have to be your best deal, but it's got to be a deal that at least doesn't make the person receiving it go
Starting point is 00:11:25 what a joke, reject, and then they block you from any future trades. Your reputation, especially in a dynasty league where you're playing with other people year after year, I think it matters a little bit. This isn't like an FFPC league where you're playing with other strangers. You want to offer those crap trades
Starting point is 00:11:42 all the time. Go for it. I think in a dynasty league where you want to try and have a relationship with other fantasy managers in your league it's important to not be an idiot go ahead and put an offer out there that's it doesn't have to like i said doesn't have to be your best offer but it's got to be something that you would at least say okay maybe if this were offered to me i would take it myself i don't know you never know when people are going to accept a horrible trade offer. If anybody gets so mad about a bad trade offer that they're going to not talk to you or
Starting point is 00:12:10 shun you from trading or would never trade with you again, then they're probably a little bit too sensitive and you should think about getting other friends. But I get it. I get it. I've been friends with you all this time. You still make terrible trade offers. Exactly, because I know you're not going to just walk away. That's not even in Dynasty Leagues. That's in regular redraft.
Starting point is 00:12:27 I'll tell you what, I would defer to Heath on this one because Heath's got more Dynasty experience than I do. What's the best way to initiate a trade in a Dynasty League, Heath? I think the first statement that Adam put in the notes was way different than what you just said. So I don't have anything problem with what you just said. Yeah, I agree. You should make an offer that it's at least conceivable someone might.
Starting point is 00:12:50 And I think maybe even taking it a step further, you need to look at the other team's roster and at least try to figure out what they're trying to do. Don't offer DeAndre Hopkins to a team that's rebuilding. Don't offer a team that's a top contender, a first-round pick for one of their best players. It doesn't make any sense. That's not what they're doing right now.
Starting point is 00:13:10 They're trying to win or they're trying to rebuild. At least make the offers make sense. What about finding the teams where you think there's a fit? I'm sorry, Adam. That's all right. Finding the teams where you think there's a fit and instead of making an offer, you just send a text or an email to them.
Starting point is 00:13:26 Hey, I think you might be interested in having Cooper Cup on your team. Would you like to talk about making a trade for Cooper Cup? Maybe be like, hey, I see you have five running backs that are all basically the same. Which one would be the cheapest? Fair. It is a good strategy in all types of leagues is to sort of empower the other manager and say, hey, put it in their court and let them make the first offer.
Starting point is 00:13:51 I think that's a good way to reach out to someone and make them more excited about it rather than just throwing a trade offer in their inbox. I think we all agree you don't want to be mediocre in dynasty leagues. You want to either go for it or or rebuild i mean look it might be a league where you know six teams make the playoffs so you think you have a shot but i've kind of been stuck in mediocrity in this one league for a really long time and um i wish i had been more aggressive
Starting point is 00:14:16 and tanking to be quite not tanking but uh getting some future picks and i i haven't so um yeah don't be mediocre i think unless you guys disagree we can move on to our next segment here which is not about dynasty at all it's combine news and notes and after this we will uh we'll do one player at each position that has a lot to gain or lose we'll debate deandre swift versus christian mccaffrey cd lamb versus dk metcalf versus aj brown we'll talk about some some mid-range tight ends who maybe they have a lot of upside. Maybe they don't. TJ Hawkins and Dallas Goddard.
Starting point is 00:14:48 What do we think about them going forward? But right now, let's just run through the news and notes, some of the things, some of the headlines that we've seen coming out of the combine. And here we go. Miami will not be trading for Deshaun Watson. Seattle has no intention of trading Russell Wilson. Bruce Arian said that he won't trade Tom Brady. If Brady wants to come back, he said,
Starting point is 00:15:06 you know, we're not in bad business. We're not going to trade him to another team. And that he also said that Tampa Bay is unlikely to trade for a veteran quarterback. And he also said that Jameis Winston, they wouldn't close the door on it, but that's probably not the best spot for Jameis Winston. So it could be Kyle Trask's time in Tampa.
Starting point is 00:15:22 Right. That's what they're making it out to be. Could be. They're tasked with finding a quarterback. So much for all these trades of quarterbacks that were getting hyped up a month ago. It's good news if your name is Jameis Winston or maybe even Mitchell Trubisky or Marcus
Starting point is 00:15:38 Mariota. Jimmy Garoppolo is having shoulder surgery that's going to sideline him until the summer. There's a guy that's going to get traded. Yeah, but that's not ideal. It seems like a really good plan by Jimmy Garoppolo if he wanted to stay in San Francisco. Right. It was his idea to have the surgery.
Starting point is 00:15:54 You're trading for a guy. You want to get him into the new system, whatever. Look, maybe the trade happens late, but you want to have him in for the full offseason, and he's having shoulder surgery, so Garoppolo won't be throwing until the summer. Philadelphia general manager, Howie Roseman supported Jalen hurts and San Francisco GM, John Lynch supported Trey Lance. He said that he's everything they thought he was when they traded up for
Starting point is 00:16:16 him. Shockers. I do wonder like how 49ers fans feel about that with what it costs, the 49ers to go get him. And the level of play that we got from Jimmy Garoppolo last year. And the fact that Lance could not take the job from Garoppolo. When you say the level of play we got from Garoppolo, that might be something people are split on. What do you think?
Starting point is 00:16:42 It was fine, right? It wasn't good. It wasn you think? It was fine, right? It wasn't good. It wasn't bad. It was fine. It was both good and bad, I guess, actually. There was some good and there was some like disastrously bad. Yeah, well, he had the Titans game. He hurt his thumb, and
Starting point is 00:16:58 he was awful after the thumb. And obviously played with a shoulder injury and a thumb injury. He was in a lot of pain down the stretch. So was Baker Mayfield. And down the stretch. But, yeah. So was Baker Mayfield. And Baker was awful. I mean, at least Garoppolo was better than that.
Starting point is 00:17:12 Anyway, it was kind of stand-by-your-man at the Combine. Arthur Smith expects Matt Ryan to be on the Falcons, but it didn't say definitively. Kevin O'Connell, Minnesota's new head coach, said Kirk Cousins is their guy. It's pretty clear the Giants are willing to trade just about anyone, including Saquon Barkley. Detroit acknowledged they need an outside wide receiver.
Starting point is 00:17:33 We're going to get to the Gronk thing. That's probably the most interesting thing. We'll save it for last. A couple of other news items here. Kansas City will likely use the franchise tag on left tackle Orlando Brown. Oh, the Lions have not decided on a play caller next season. Heath, how much is that going to impact your projections
Starting point is 00:17:48 when they do establish who will call plays? Not much because Dan Campbell was not as much of an outlier as Anthony Lynn in the games that he called plays. If it's Campbell or if it's the new guy, is it Ben Johnson? Ben Johnson.
Starting point is 00:18:05 I'm going to project pretty close to a league norm in terms of their play calling. They're going to want to run it a lot. They still love their offensive line, and they look at that as a superior strength for their team. So it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they were, at least when games were competitive, a little more conservative. Mike Kosicki is a franchise candidate,
Starting point is 00:18:29 franchise tag candidates, not really a franchise tight end. That's according to pro football network. Rondell Moore will be a bigger part of the offense. And we talked about him last Monday. It has to be. I think we talked about him earlier this week. Monday.
Starting point is 00:18:43 Yeah. They're running out of receivers. If they're going to Christian Kirk is going to be. I think we talked about him earlier this week. Monday, yeah. They're running out of receivers. Christian Kirk is going to be a popular free agent. I think I read somewhere that he was hanging with Josh Allen during the offseason already. A.J. Green, I don't see him getting re-signed by Arizona. Maybe there's a chance. Andy Isabella has been given permission to seek a trade.
Starting point is 00:19:02 So they've got Nuke. They've got Antoine Wesley. Wesley. So they've got Nuke, they've got Antoine Wesley, Wesley, and they've got Rondell Moore. So they're going to add to that group more than anything else. And Moore should get an opportunity to actually catch passes further than like five yards downfield. The Cardinals and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, I just this week published the 2022 Opportunity Index.
Starting point is 00:19:27 And those two teams have more than 700 vacated opportunities. That's targets plus running back rush attempts. 755 for Tampa Bay, 713 for Arizona. No other team has more than 519. So like enormous amounts of opportunity in those two places. And it's partially to say, you know, there could be somebody that steps up,
Starting point is 00:19:52 but also like maybe they're going to bring in wide receiver help, but they've got to spend money at running back. They've probably got to spend money at tight end. Like one of those three spots, they probably can't fill them all. Yeah, it'd be a big question. We talked about this with Moore on Monday.
Starting point is 00:20:06 You know, this is a guy whose ADOT was, I think, 1.2 yards. That was his average depth of target, 1.2 yards. So a lot of it was behind the line of scrimmage. I mean, Dave, you said more than five yards downfield. More than, how about negative five yards downfield? He just was a gadget player, which I think, I remember having this conversation when he got drafted. I was a little concerned about Rondo Moore.
Starting point is 00:20:25 He just seemed like a great athlete at Purdue. He was. He kind of out-athleted everybody. I don't like to pretend to be a scout or anything. He just didn't feel like a polished receiver. And then, to me anyway. And then I think, Keith, you said, yeah, but Arizona was a great landing space for him
Starting point is 00:20:43 because of the way they would use him. And I think all of that sort of played out, but they didn't, you know, but I just wish they had used as more of a gadget player his first year in the NFL and then they transitioned more his second year and then his third year he became a true number one wide receiver I don't think Rondell Moore is going to be Tyree kill I want to clarify that again but they're already talking about wanting to use him outside this year expanding his roles what we don't know is how like players progress in different ways. Some players are really good at learning new skills, even in the NFL, and diversifying their game. If he does that, he could still be a very good fantasy wide receiver. But he has things he has to improve. He's got to stay healthy, too.
Starting point is 00:21:36 That's always been an issue with him. Let's talk about Rob Gronkowski. The Bills are reportedly interested in Rob Gronkowski, according to The Athletic. How fun would that be? Would you draft him as the number six tight end after whatever order? Kelsey, Andrews, Waller, Kittle, Pitts?
Starting point is 00:21:56 No. No? Where would you draft him? You might talk me into eight, but I think it's more like nine. Why? So besides Dallas Goddard, who else are you putting in front of him? Schultz, Hawkinson. Hawkinson for sure.
Starting point is 00:22:17 Schultz, if he's back in Dallas, probably. Hawkinson for sure? What? Hawkinson for sure? Especially if it's PPR but you might, Gronk might catch seven more touchdowns than TJ Hawkinson I don't think that that's crazy hyperbole
Starting point is 00:22:34 I think that that's possible but I also wonder about how many targets he gets with Josh Allen there I still think they're going to throw plenty, even though Brian Dable's leaving. But there's plenty.
Starting point is 00:22:51 Look, there was plenty of target competition for Gronk in Tampa. More there than there would be in Buffalo. Yeah, maybe there's a chance he does get around seven targets per game. You don't think TJ Hawkins is going to catch a touchdown pass? He just played the last two years with Tom Brady
Starting point is 00:23:05 in one of the best offenses in football, and in neither year did he have more than seven touchdown passes. I still think he's got that skill. He had six touchdown catches in 12 games last year. Hawkinson had four touchdown catches in 12 games last year. Dawson Knox had nine touchdown catches last year. So he had six in 12, and Hawkinson had four in 12. Gronk hasn't had more than eight since 2015.
Starting point is 00:23:32 Do you really think it's crazy that he could have seven more touchdowns? That he could have 10 touchdowns? I think it's more likely that Hawkinson plays seven more games than Gronk than it is Gronk scores seven more touchdowns. But I'm done docking Gronk for injury. I think he could always miss two or three games, but I think that he's... He's going to be a 33-year-old tight end
Starting point is 00:23:54 that has missed games basically every year but 2020. Isn't Kelsey 32? But Kelsey plays 16 games almost every year. Last year was 17. Well, I would get, did Dawson Knox lead the team in red zone targets? Cause the thing is,
Starting point is 00:24:09 you know, Mike Evans was such a, was such a red zone hog. And I'm just going to check for Buffalo. I got it. I got it. I'll look, uh,
Starting point is 00:24:19 you know, so I just think that, uh, no digs had a 34 knocks at 18 inside the 10 yard line. Digiggs had 34, Knox had 18. Inside the 10-yard line, Diggs had 14, Knox had 10. Knox did miss three games, I think I said. So Knox was like second, basically. Yeah, he was second.
Starting point is 00:24:34 Well, I would imagine that would mostly shift to Gronk if Gronk is there. Right, that's what I was thinking. Maybe seven's a little much, but he'll out-touchdown TJ Hawkinson if he's on the bills. I hope it happens. That would be a lot of fun.
Starting point is 00:24:48 All right, it's a Dynasty show, so let's talk Dynasty. Nothing says Dynasty like Rob Gronkowski. By the way, you know, you got to talk about the rookies here and the latest mock draft from Ryan Wilson, which he published on February 28th. He had five wide receivers going in the first round. This does look like a pretty good wide receiver class. He had two
Starting point is 00:25:06 guys from Ohio State, but he had in this order Garrett Wilson of Ohio State, who I believe he had mocked at number 11 overall, Traylon Burks of Arkansas, Drake London of USC, Jamison Williams of Alabama, who's coming off a torn ACL, and Chris Olave of Ohio State, right at the end of round one.
Starting point is 00:25:22 Go to CBSSports.com's NFL draft rankings, their prospect rankings. We have five running backs in the top 90, I want to say. And those would be Isaiah Spiller of Texas A&M, Brees Hall of Iowa State, Kenneth Walker of
Starting point is 00:25:38 Michigan State, Kyron Williams of Notre Dame, and Kennedy Brooks of Oklahoma. And three of those guys very, very, very involved in the passing game. Isaiah Spiller, again, A&M,
Starting point is 00:25:49 Brees Hall, Iowa State, Kyron Williams, Notre Dame. Spiller had 74 catches in three seasons. Brees Hall had 23, 23, and 36 catches in three seasons.
Starting point is 00:26:02 Kyron Williams had 77 catches for Notre Dame in his last two seasons. So they've shown that ability out of the backfield and running routes. That's excellent stuff. So I don't know. Give me, so yeah, go ahead. Give me Isaiah Spiller to Arizona and give me breeze hole to Atlanta.
Starting point is 00:26:16 And let's, let's go. Like I, I, I still think I'm not as excited yet about Walker as I am the other two, but I do kind of feel like it's, running back at least, Hall, Spiller, Walker, I don't care, I don't care, I don't care.
Starting point is 00:26:31 And I think for Walker, I've been pumping him so much, well, a little bit anyway. We talk that much about these guys, but I don't think I could make him the number one guy right now just because he's kind of more like an old school bruiser,
Starting point is 00:26:44 and I don't think he looks like a third down guy. He's someone who had 13 catches last year, 19 catches in his career at Michigan State. I just assume that you don't love Grease Hall because every time you watch him you see David Montgomery and you hate David Montgomery. Spiller looks
Starting point is 00:26:59 to me like the most explosive of this group. We've got a lot to have Emory hunt on. We'll have the guys who do this for a living. But I don't know. You, you're a Brees Hall guy. I'm going to plant my flag for Isaiah Spiller. He's going to be my favorite running back in this class.
Starting point is 00:27:16 Somebody showed on Twitter just a couple of days ago, and I don't remember who it was, so sorry. Credit to you. It's really silly to debate Brees Hall versus Isaiah Spiller right now. They are both really, really good. We'll see who gets the most draft capital and the best landing spot, and that will be the favorite. Yeah, probably.
Starting point is 00:27:36 All right, so it does factor in, though, when you're looking at dynasty rankings here. Do you think, Heath, there's a realistic scenario, one of these running backs, one of these wide receivers that's going to go in the first round for the wide receivers, maybe the late first or second round for the running backs becomes
Starting point is 00:27:54 a top 12 overall dynasty player instantly? Probably not instantly, but by next year, yes. I think Hall or Spiller could have the type of year in their rookie year that puts them in the... Or Najee Harris or...
Starting point is 00:28:11 I mean, Javante Williams split all year and still moved into the top 12. So, yes, I think... And definitely, whoever the best wide receiver is will probably be a top 12 pick at the end of next year. Here's a random question, Dave. Would you rather have Travis ETN or the third pick,
Starting point is 00:28:31 fifth pick of a rookie draft, of the rookie draft? I might lean toward the fifth pick of the rookie draft because there are some intriguing receivers to go with the running backs that we've talked about. And it feels like, what's the ceiling for ETN?
Starting point is 00:28:48 To be a passing downs back at this point? Wait a second. That's so harsh. Alvin Kamara is probably the ceiling. That's so harsh. That's his ceiling. All right, maybe being Alvin Kamara is the ceiling. He's tricky, though.
Starting point is 00:29:00 I mean, that's not an easy guy to evaluate. Nope. I have the first uh i think eight picks ahead of etn okay right now so okay all right let's move on we'll get we'll get to that in a little bit uh one player at each position that could move well i don't know the best way to phrase this what's the best way to frame this uh segment here i'm not sure which segment it is so one player at each position yes what the segment says yeah i thought that's what you were i understand why you were confused after that um i think what you
Starting point is 00:29:36 said was do you have some guys you'd like to talk about because this is not one player at each position it's three players at two positions two players at one position and one player at one position one topic for each position one topic for each position and the first one is a guy who could move a lot during free agency it's jamis winston um i don't know that him resigning in this current situation in new orleans is going to move the whole needle a whole lot other than the fact that we will be guaranteed he's a starter. And if you've got a three-year deal to stay in New Orleans for legitimate money, then I think that would move it quite a bit.
Starting point is 00:30:13 Where would you see him going? Top 18-ish? 18-ish seemed right to me. Okay. I think we have more interesting positions to talk about, since we did just talk about quarterback dynasty not too long ago. So we're going to take a break, and when we come back, we're going to talk about multiple players
Starting point is 00:30:32 at each position, including this debate at running back. Would you rather have DeAndre Swift, Javante Williams, or Christian McCaffrey in your dynasty league? And we'll talk about the running back landscape as a whole, which is pretty interesting right now. We'll take a break. When we come back, RB debates in Dynasty.
Starting point is 00:30:51 What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend that powers your scale with no preset spending limit. More cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days. And the ability to reach further with access to over 1400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with business platinum. That's the powerful backing of American express terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. So Dave Richard, would you rather have Javante Williams,
Starting point is 00:31:22 Deandre Swift or Christian McCaffrey in your dynasty league? Who's the highest? The knee jerk reaction for me is Javante Williams, just because he's young. There's plenty of upside left. I'm not as worried about injury risk with him as I am with Swift and certainly with McCaffrey. The only thing that might change my mind is if I've got a dynasty team that's in win now mode and the allure of getting Christian McCaffrey theoretically at a discount because of what's happened in the past two seasons would make me want to get him on the squad for the next year to two years versus Javante who might legitimately have five years in front of them yeah i think if you were looking
Starting point is 00:32:07 at it in terms of like dynasty upside i would rank it mcafree swift williams and if you're looking at it in terms of dynasty downside i'd probably rank it williams swift mcafree i think swift's second in both that's's a little confusing. Are you saying... I think McCaffrey has the most upside, but also the most downside. Isn't it more about most downside? When you say most downside, do you mean just like safe, playing it safe?
Starting point is 00:32:34 No, I mean that Christian McCaffrey is going to be 26 years old this year. And if he has another injury, his value is probably not a top 25 running back in Dynasty. Because then he'll be 27 going in the next year or three straight major injuries. We'll be done with them.
Starting point is 00:32:49 So Christian McCaffrey's downside is one play. And the first round asset that you have is almost worthless. I don't know if you remember, but we did a dynasty show last year or two years ago where I went through the ages of all the players that finished top five and I think 26 was the most productive age for running backs and wide receivers do you remember that by any chance I remember that 26 or 27 like 27 to 28 was when the fall off started I don't necessarily remember that 26 was better than 24 but I know 24 to 26 is the peak
Starting point is 00:33:24 for running backs or for everything. Yeah. And receiver. Yeah, 26 is a really good year. And I was just looking, Austin Eckler did just have his age 26 season. So something to keep in mind, it seems to be popping up. Age 26, very productive. After 28 for a running back, you don't find a lot of great seasons.
Starting point is 00:33:40 You really just don't after 28. So definitely something to consider. Okay. great seasons you really just don't after 28 so definitely something to uh to consider okay i think these guys are are what in your rankings dynasty running backs three four five three four i have swift at three williams at four mccaffrey at five you go taylor naji swift giovante mccaffrey correct all right dave what is your overall thought on the running back position? Because when you're talking about 3-4-5 in our dynasty rankings, you're talking about Swift and then Heaths, who's never played more than 13 games and isn't really a feature back.
Starting point is 00:34:16 Or maybe he's like a new era feature back. You're talking about Javante Williams, who's proven very little, and Christian McCaffrey, who's barely played the last two seasons. Are we looking at just a bad state at running back? No, because I think there's still a lot of running backs who can put up numbers. I just think that you have to look at the position as a little more disposable
Starting point is 00:34:41 than it's even been in the past. And it's almost like it's better off if you have a short-term view of the running backs in dynasty unless you've got that rare young back that either has proven that he can be an excellent running back like jonathan taylor somebody like that naji harris has proven that he can be a really good back i don't know if excellent is the word i would use or you've got a running back that has the potential to do it and giovante would be the first name that would roll off my tongue in that regard michael carter isn't necessarily in that same tier as giovante williams but he's got a chance to play five plus years two years ago i would have said the exact
Starting point is 00:35:21 same thing about saquon barkley though and i would have said that saquon barkley he's got five more great years in front of him christian mccaffrey two years ago oh hell yeah he's going to be amazing for the next five years at minimum and you can see how fast that falls apart could absolutely happen to the tailors and and giovante williams's of the fantasy world so i just you got i think it's almost better off to go, I don't want to say zero RB when it comes to dynasty, but you almost want to not invest too heavily in that position outside of rookie-only picks. Because I think if you've got a rookie-only pick and you've got somebody who you think can be productive for a long time staring you in the face, you take them. That's what those rookie picks are for.
Starting point is 00:36:02 But when you're trying to make a trade, I think you almost have to devalue that position a little bit more than you would in a regular redraft league. And if you've got like five or six of them that are being devalued, you should probably get them off your roster. So how do you value someone like
Starting point is 00:36:19 Dalvin Cook, who will be in his age 27 season, or Joe Mixon, who will be in his age 26 season? Can we expect three more good, or Joe Mixon, who will be in his age 26 season. Can we expect three more good years from Joe Mixon? And does that make him a top 12 running back? Does that make him a top 12 overall player? Give me a Joe Mixon analysis in the Dynasty League. He is my number eight running back,
Starting point is 00:36:43 but not a top 12 player. I think he's worth a second round pick. It helps him. He's in that same range. There's a bunch of guys after you get past. We talked about my three through five. Then I've got Eckler at six and Dobbins at seven. Then there's a lot of running backs between 25 to 27, 28
Starting point is 00:37:01 that are kind of interspersed next. I think you can count on two more good years from Joe Mixon and hope you get a third. Yeah, we need Dobbins. We need Acres. We need that class of 20. Was that 2020? We were so excited about them going into
Starting point is 00:37:19 2021. We need them to kind of carry the load because where's Zeke? Where's our Zeke? Where's our Dalvin Cook? Where's our workhorse running backs? I don't know how many of those exist anymore. I don't think they are. I think they just may not. But still, there will be running backs. There are one,
Starting point is 00:37:36 two, three, four, five running backs who were in my top 10 back in September who are no longer. Who? Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Aaron Jones, Ezekiel Elliott. Very
Starting point is 00:37:53 flimsy position. Alright, let's go to our next debate. We'll go to wide receiver. Yeah, disposable is a good word. Flimsy is not. CeeDee Lamb versus DK Metcalf versus AJ Brown. Lamb, Metc metcalf brown is that the way you rank it heath it is okay dave how would you rank them in dynasty lamb metcalf brown uh i'm very tempted to rank them in the exact opposite order i think that i think that i think that's that's
Starting point is 00:38:19 why i chose these three because i think dave is closer to the public ranking of them than I am. So Dave is thinking Brown, Metcalf, Lamb, and Heath has it Lamb, Metcalf, Brown. Okay, debate. Dave, go. I'm a little skittish on Lamb after what happened in the second half of last season. What would make me feel a lot better is if Amari Cooper was off that
Starting point is 00:38:46 roster and they brought in a different receiver to work in three receiver sets and they bring in Gallup, they bring back Schultz, and Lamb becomes the number one. And we see him become the alpha in that offense like I thought he was going to be. There were two times last year where I thought
Starting point is 00:39:02 we were seeing that. Once was in the preseason. It just looked like it was happening. Dak was talking up Lamb differently than he was talking up other receivers in that offense. And every single play that we saw on social media was him picking passes off the helmets of opposing DBs. At minimum, it looked like it was going to be a bad year for the Cowboys defensive backs.
Starting point is 00:39:21 That didn't happen, but it did happen where Lamb got off to a good start, got a lot of targets. And then something shifted in that offense and lamb. I'll tell you what happened. Michael Gallup came back and they used lamb a lot more in the slot. And he wasn't nearly as efficient as he was when he was outside. It's weird. And I'm wondering if that's,
Starting point is 00:39:40 if that continues to happen, that makes me a little bit nervous about lamb. I'm going to spend a lot of time working on DK Metcalf this offseason. I've already started. I've got a stat that's wild. First half of the year, those first eight games when DK Metcalf was on fire, second year in a row, by the way, where he was awesome in the first eight games of the year, he converted almost 92% of his air yards into receiving yards.
Starting point is 00:40:05 I've never seen anything like that. And you go back and you watch, he's not running as many downfield routes in those first eight games. He's actually, for him, running routes really well because he's not as fluid and shifty as someone like A.J. Brown, for example. And he was getting open. He was making contested catches. He was catching off-target throws,
Starting point is 00:40:26 whether they were from Russ or from Geno Smith. He looked the part of a guy, you'll like this, Adam, a guy who could be the best receiver in the National Football League. He looked like it. And then I haven't really dug into the second half of the year. My guess is that they were trying him on more downfield stuff, and he wasn't converting nearly as much, I believe.
Starting point is 00:40:42 Don't quote me on it, but the air yard conversion rate in the second half of the year was less than 40 so that's a humongous change when you think about it and that means he was being used differently that's something that i'll write about at some point this year maybe sooner than later and then aj brown is elusive we've seen him put up huge numbers before with ryan tannehill as his quarterback tannehill won't be his quarterback forever eventually he will get a quarterback fingers crossed that's better than tannehill numbers before with Ryan Tannehill as his quarterback. Tannehill won't be his quarterback forever. Eventually, he will get a quarterback, fingers crossed, that's better than Tannehill, and he could really take off. And the way that the NFL is right now,
Starting point is 00:41:16 I think that wide receivers that can make plays after the catch and can do a bunch of different things to get open on their own are going to be extremely valuable and heavily targeted. A.J. Brown fits that to a tee. And I think he's got a long time to go. I like all three of these guys, but Brown is the one who's my favorite of the three. Yeah. These guys are a five, six and eight for me at wide receiver. So I don't dislike any of them.
Starting point is 00:41:39 I, I almost jumped in in the middle. I feel like it's going to lose effect that I didn't, but the fact that we started a C.D. Lamb versus D.K. Metcalf debate with concern over what C.D. Lamb did in the second half of last year. C.D. Lamb was a lot better than D.K. Metcalf in the second half last year. And I feel like
Starting point is 00:41:58 there is, amongst the three of them, a better chance for Lamb's situation to improve because Gallup could be gone. Cooper could be gone cooper could be gone there's more i don't i don't think tyler lockett's going anywhere right now they love him and i i think it's less likely that that goes somewhere than russell wilson but maybe the the thing that is the tiebreaker for me is that at the start of this year cd lamb's going to be 23 years old at the start of this season aj brown's gonna be Lamb's going to be 23 years old. At the start of this season,
Starting point is 00:42:26 A.J. Brown's going to be 25. It's a two-year difference. And I think you have more reason for hope for Lamb to improve on his skill set at a younger age with less experience in the league. And I don't think it's unfair to be more concerned about A.J. Brown's health than the other two.
Starting point is 00:42:42 Yeah, sure. Now, okay, who's seven, by the the way in between this group i re-kill okay is cooper cup ahead or behind these three uh every time i update it cooper cup is a guy who moves a little bit right now he's fourth and um like the thing is that's a that's a question that's entirely dependent on the state of your team. For a rebuilding team, it's not close. You'd much rather have any of these three guys. But for a contender, I'd rather have Kemp.
Starting point is 00:43:14 Now, we're talking Lamb, Metcalf, A.J. Brown. Are they ahead of Joe Mixon in your dynasty rankings? I think he's probably right in the middle of them. No, he's behind all of them. Mixon's behind all of them? Okay. Overall, I've got Lamb 10, Metcalf 11, Brown 13. Joe Mixon's 20th. And what about the DeAndre Swift, Javante Williams, McCaffrey group?
Starting point is 00:43:42 Those three are ahead of the wide receivers for me. How about you, Dave? Would you take these young stud receivers or Swift, Javante, McCaffrey? Or does it depend on your team? I think if we're doing a rookie startup draft, I think I'd lean toward the receivers. I am a little bit concerned with Metcalf
Starting point is 00:44:02 that his first eight games of the 2020 season are sort of propping up his value because, you know, Dave, you talked about it's been two years in a row, first eight games, but let's take a look at the difference here. The first eight games of 2020, he averaged almost 100 yards per game, 98.5 yards per game. The first eight games of 2021, not even close, 72.5 yards per game. So even when he was on pace for 17 touchdowns and fewer targets, but 15 yards per catch compared to like 18 and a half yards per catch. He wasn't as good in this eight game stretch stretch as he was in the eight-game stretch in 2020. So as much as I love DK Metcalf, I don't know. I guess I'm a little concerned that even when Russell Wilson
Starting point is 00:44:53 was awesome at the beginning of the year, here were the yards. Here were the yards for DK Metcalf in the four games that Wilson started and finished. 60, 53, 107, and 65. Then he had 98 the next week with a partial game from Russell Wilson, to be fair.
Starting point is 00:45:10 I don't know. His 17-game pace in those first eight games that you referenced was 1,232 yards. That's not that good. It's not bad, but it's not a guy I'm taking in the first round of a dynasty draft, I guess. Then, obviously, the second half was much
Starting point is 00:45:26 worse, which I think was largely partially due to Russell Wilson. And the rest is a damn mystery. He also had a foot injury that he was playing with, and he had foot surgery. So that could have been a big part of it, too. I guess what I'm saying is we've had now three seasons of Metcalf.
Starting point is 00:45:42 The first eight games of 2020 might be the outlier here. Maybe they're making us overrate him? Question mark? I'm Ron Burgundy? Yeah. I don't... No? Not feeling that?
Starting point is 00:45:59 He's a mid-range number one wide receiver. I think maybe we were overrating him when we had him at one or two or three amongst the wide receivers because he was there for a lot of people yeah i think i'm inclined to just still think he's awesome and capable of being a total beast and not get too in the weeds with the stats there's just no reason at this point that you would value him over chaser jefferson so like the the best he could be his third okay let's go to our third question here's a tight or fourth question it's a tight end question how much upside do tj hockinson and dallas goddard actually have heath and i asked
Starting point is 00:46:37 this question because they've kind of been ranked projected both in redraft and um dynasty on like the theory of what they could be. We've projected that both these guys could jump into the top three. And I'm just, especially with Goddard, who's now going to be 27 at the start of the year, I'm not sure we have any reason to think that he could be a lot more than what he's been. Which is why...
Starting point is 00:47:02 Especially in an offense with Jalen Hurts at quarterback that's going to be extremely run heavy. Hawkinson kind of had his chance. I would doubt if the Lions go into this season thinking that Hawkinson is going to be their first option in terms of targets. I would say it's going to be ARSB and there may be another wide receiver that's ahead of them as well. So I think my answer to that question would be they've got mid-range, number one tight end upside, and they're not so old that you need to discount them for your age. So they are the number six and seven tight end in my dynasty rankings.
Starting point is 00:47:33 But I see people ranking Hawkinson ahead of Waller or ahead of Kittle or ahead of Kelsey because he's still 25 years old. And I just can't do that because I'm not sure he has the upside to give you a season like they can this year sure what happens this year when he doesn't dominate for the Lions and he's a good fantasy tight end but he's not a difference maker for Detroit does Detroit give him a huge extension does he settle for a contract to stay in Detroit? Does he move on somewhere else? By the time that Dallas Goddard's arrow points straight down, Hawkinson might be on the same decline, maybe a little bit behind him.
Starting point is 00:48:13 So I like Hawkinson better because he's younger, and I think he's got maybe a little bit more time on the clock to be helpful for fantasy than Dallas Goddard. But to me, it's very close between the two. So close that if I were in a dynasty startup and I see Hawkinson go ahead of Goddard, I almost put the periscope up looking for Goddard
Starting point is 00:48:36 within the next 12 or so picks after Hawkinson. Okay. I don't know that there's a whole lot of difference between another first round tight end for the detroit lions through three seasons i mean his rookie year was better kind of well but we only had two seasons from but how many seasons we have from hockinson? I'm sorry. Three? Three. He has been in the league for three years, and he has 1,600 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:49:09 So if we could, yeah. Boy, did he come out firing. His first two games, right? Yeah, he was amazing. 45 PPR points in those first two games. Yeah. Last 10 games, he had 420 yards and two touchdowns, and his 17-game pace was 714
Starting point is 00:49:26 yards, 76 catches, and three touchdowns in his last 10 games. Yeah, so I actually wanted to talk about Goddard if you don't mind, because he actually had in terms of his rates an incredible season. Yards per catch, his yards per target. 10.9
Starting point is 00:49:42 yards per target blew away his previous career high. How about this? He had nine games out of 15 with five or more targets. In those nine games, Dallas Goddard scored 12 or more PPR fantasy points seven times. 12 or more PPR fantasy points. That's what Darren Waller
Starting point is 00:49:57 and Dalton Schultz basically averaged. They averaged just a little bit more than 12 PPR fantasy points per game. He got that or more in seven of nine games with only five or more targets. On a per-target basis, I don't know. He may have been the best tight end in football. He was so good. Very close to it, anyway.
Starting point is 00:50:13 He was a top-ten tight end despite being 17th in targets. I would like that stat a lot more if he didn't have games in the second half of the season with two targets against the Broncos, three targets against the giant, four targets. He got hurt against the Broncos. He left pretty early. Okay.
Starting point is 00:50:35 The two games against the giants then. Yeah. Yeah. He had a combined three catches for 28 yards. Yeah. You know, he had these games and, and there were a couple of games where,
Starting point is 00:50:43 uh, Jalen hurts through 16 or 17 passes, so that's obviously a problem. And also, if you look at his last 10 games after the Earths trade, he caught two touchdowns. They were both in the same game, and they were both from Gardner Minshew. Jalen Hurts did not throw Dallas Goddard the ball near the end zone. It was very strange.
Starting point is 00:51:02 I don't know how much Jalen Hurts threw the ball in the end zone. It was very strange. I don't know how much Jay ran at all. But he did have a 23% target share without Zach Ertz after the Ertz trade. And he was great per target. So I do wonder if that makes you think that there's more potential there. You know what I can look up really quickly is his target per route
Starting point is 00:51:21 run rate after the Ertz trade. i bet that i bet that percentage is high anything that's higher than 20 is usually good for that it started in week seven so week seven to week 17 give me 30 seconds okay oh that's oh we got to do some trade talk too we'll we'll do a which side do you want by the way heath basically produced this show so thank you to heath for for great work there and we had some comments i wanted to bring up from the chat which was let's see it's been a long time oh is it me or are all of you guys getting better looking every day and then the next comment was except adam lol so that was interesting
Starting point is 00:52:03 hey i mean if you're looking for island real estate or property management, we know where to go. Yes, Island Real Estate and Property Management Incorporated is asking these questions. He also asked, do you think Cam Akers is worth keeping in Dynasty and what round? In a keeper league, Cam Akers, anywhere from
Starting point is 00:52:21 I would say round four or later is worth the keep. I was going to say round three. Sean Brenneman has Carter, Swift, Gervonta, Dobbins, and Hunt at running back. Dave, you should probably pay attention to this description. I am, I am. First of all, does Sean think we're getting more handsome? The Pitts owner wants DeAndrere swift would you make that trade
Starting point is 00:52:46 for sure um hell yeah i'd trade swift for pits that offer is not the pits i like swift more than pits but um i would i just can i can i get a second round pick thrown in and then i'd do it wow oh you're so greedy. Looking for the Jerry Krause sweetener on top of it. No, it's just I don't have pits as high as Swift. Okay, what's your top five overall dynasty ranking? Taylor, Chase, Jefferson, Harris, Swift. Taylor, Chase, Jefferson, Harris, Swift.
Starting point is 00:53:25 Dave, what about you? It's probably something like that. How is Kyle Pitts not there? Oh, wait. Did you say Swift fifth? Yes. Oh, no. Swift isn't there for me.
Starting point is 00:53:37 Pitts would be ahead of Swift. Okay. But a wide receiver might be ahead of Pitts. I don't have dynasty rankings. I probably should. Don't tell the boss. I've got the target per route run rate for our guy. 24%.
Starting point is 00:53:54 And is that good? Yes. Okay. All right. Which side would you rather have in trade? Austin Eckler and Chris Godwin or J.K. Dobbins and Elijah Moore? Austin Eckler and Chris Godwin
Starting point is 00:54:09 or Dobbins and Elijah Moore? This is in Dynasty, obviously. Okay, Dave, I think, Dave, we're looking for you to answer here. That's how the segment works because this is based off Heath's trade charts. I know my answer. I was giving Heath a shot. No, all of these I put together
Starting point is 00:54:29 for you guys, and I put that in the email. I put these together for you guys because they are all virtual ties in my dynasty rankings. I would take Eckler and Godwin. I'm taking Eckler and Godwin. Because you've got the win-now factor for both of those guys. Not that you can't win now with Dobbins and Moore.
Starting point is 00:54:49 I'm scared of what's coming for Dobbins. Coming off the ACL, Ravens offense potentially reverting back to where they were before this year. Lamar under center, that's going to take some work away from Dobbins. Gus is going to take work away from Dobbins. And as much as I love Elijah Moore, I don't know what to make of Zach Wilson. Not ready to say that Zach, oh, don't worry about it. Zach will be better next year.
Starting point is 00:55:09 I don't know if that's going to be true. I figure that Godwin will play somewhere where he's got a capable quarterback. He's also coming off of an ACL, right? He is, but I think that there's still a lot of career left for Chris Godwin. He might not have a good year in 2022, but I think he's going to have a pretty of career left for Chris Godwin. He might not have a good year in 2022, but I think he's going to have a pretty strong career
Starting point is 00:55:28 where he continues to be a target hog five years, five more years for him. And Eckler doesn't have five years in front of him. He might not have more than two or three, but I do think that Eckler will pay off better now than Dobbins will, and both of them five years from now might be afterthoughts in the National Football League. Okay, DeAndre Hopkins.
Starting point is 00:55:49 This one is actually repulsive and makes my stomach hurt reading it. DeAndre Hopkins and Melvin Gordon or Rashad Bateman and Tony Pollard? I don't like it. Hopkins and Gordon or Bateman and Pollard? Who would you rather have? I'm holding on to the veterans,
Starting point is 00:56:08 hoping that Hopkins can have a nice bounce back year, hoping that Melvin Gordon has a rear like he had last year. And maybe I can turn those two into something better at the trade deadline in my dynasty league or worst case scenario. I get numbers out of them in 2022 and i trade them off for maybe a slightly worse pair uh in the spring of 2023 and that's the that's the thing is i think like i would understand especially with hopkins if you want to hold on and see because he could have two good games and a contender could believe he's back and then you could get something really
Starting point is 00:56:43 good for him but both hopkins and gordon could like, if they, if things go wrong, you're not getting a slightly worse pair for them. You're not getting a third round pick for them. Um, I, I, I look at this and I think Bateman was a late first round pick last year. I don't think you're getting more than a second for Melvin. So this is a lot like a late first and a second round pick for these two guys. If I'm not a contender, I'm easily taking a late first for Hopkins or a second for Gordon. I don't really know why people are so down on DeAndre Hopkins. He has a Hall of Fame receiver and he still, I think, has, what is he, 29 this year? Yes.
Starting point is 00:57:27 So I think just based on what receivers of his caliber have done, it's not uncommon for them to be good up until they're 31, 32. And I don't know. I think he's being judged a little bit too harshly on his yards from this past year, personally. I do want to clarify that Hopkins, he's being judged harshly on his targets. And that might change because they let enough receivers go that he gets a bunch of targets. But his target share fell to like,
Starting point is 00:57:53 he and Christian Kirk and A.J. Green were basically taking turns leading the team in targets. It was almost an even split at 20% for each of them, which is awful. And he will be 30 before this season starts. So I think what you said is right like you might get one or two more good years from deandre hopkins um but again he's one of those guys that the floor is almost nothing if this year goes bad his floor in terms of his dynasty value right right
Starting point is 00:58:17 all right patrick mahomes and travis kelsey this is fun or jo Joe Burrow and Kyle Pitts. Burrow and Pitts or Mahomes and Kelsey. As tempted as I am to take the Chiefs combo, I believe that Kyle Pitts will be a productive tight end for many years. And that means the difference between Mahomes and Burrow, I'm not sure that that'll be a big difference. So I will take the Burrow-Pitts side ahead of Mahomes and Kelsey. Me too.
Starting point is 00:58:57 I think everyone would, and I'm just going to be a homer and defend the other side. Because like I said, I think it's basically even. And if I was a contender, I'd be really tempted. Because I don't really... Last year, Mahomes had his worst year, right? And Burrow averaged nine yards per attempt and had a 6% touchdown rate. And Mahomes was a point and a half better per game. I don't think we have any reason to expect that Burrow is going to close that gap in the coming year. Neither of these guys, they're basically the same age. Mahomes might be a year older.
Starting point is 00:59:30 And Pitts, how much does he have to increase to get into Travis Kelsey's neighborhood in the next two years? He needs to score a bunch of touchdowns and see a slight uptick in targets. But I think he's got the potential to see a significant uptick in targets and have several years where he's in the double-digit touchdown range. I wonder how many more years can we look at Travis Kelsey and say, that guy's going to get me 15 PPR points per game without me worrying a little bit. How many years do I have to wait for Kyle Pitts to get me 15 fantasy points? I think the answer to that might be zero.
Starting point is 01:00:11 I think there's a chance that that could happen as soon as this coming year. And I know that Kelsey will do it again this coming year. Like I feel that it's not crazy to say that there's no reason to believe that there's a decline coming for Travis Kelsey, other than looking at his birthday and saying see he's 33 years old but two years from now does Kelsey fall to father time while Kyle Pitts is on the up and up I think it is his football career would fall to father time right not no I mean that he like falls into a you know no okay oh a pit okay yeah bottomless bottomless yeah constantly like this like one of those
Starting point is 01:00:53 baseball players in the sims that famous simpsons episode which one falls into a bottomless pit ozzy smith i think dave you know we haven't heard from him in a long time i think he falls in i'm gonna i gotta look this up before we go. All right, anyway, that's it for today's show. I don't have time to look this up. Falls in the bottomless pit. Ozzie Smith, yes! All right, we're out of here, everybody.
Starting point is 01:01:19 We'll talk to you on Monday with a... What if I gave you a 2023 first for Montgomery? It might even be better than a late first. Who knows what it'll be? Take that. I might. Yes. Uh-oh, I just got a buzz on my phone.
Starting point is 01:01:32 Is this you, Heath, making the offer? It's Ozzie Smith. We're out of here. We'll talk to you Monday. We have a game called Mystery Draft or something like that. We're working on a title, but it should be a fun show on Monday
Starting point is 01:01:42 with some NFL Combine notes from Jamie as we'll be back from the Combine. FFT in five, we got a free agency preview. So you can check that out. Have a great weekend, everybody. See ya.

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