Fantasy Football Today - DYNASTY! Also NFL News and Rumors (03/03 Fantasy Football Podcast)
Episode Date: March 3, 2022Get ready for some dynasty talk as Dave and Heath try to make a trade on the show! Kareem Hunt for an early second round pick in the rookie draft? Also, Dave gives some basic dynasty trade advice that... Adam pushes back against (8:55) ... We'll cover the NFL news and notes (13:40) with plenty of rumors coming out of the NFL Combine. Rob Gronkowski to the Bills? All of the veteran QBs staying put? Then it's back to the dynasty chatter (23:50) as we touch on the incoming rookies and if any of them are instantly Top 12 dynasty picks ... Our thoughts on Jameis Winston's dynasty value (28:40), D'Andre Swift vs. Javonte Williams vs. Christian McCaffrey (30:45) plus the state of the RB position in dynasty, how to rank three young stud WRs (37:40) and how much upside a couple of mid-tier TEs have (46:00). Finally we propose some dynasty trades (53:25) and debate which side to take ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
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This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.
On his way to the end zone.
Tell you what, that was a spectacular play.
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
What a play.
Off to the races.
Touchdown.
Oh, he's done it again.
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck.
It is a Dynasty episode of Fantasy Football today.
If you're not in a Dynasty league, you should listen anyway.
We're talking about trade values for players and what we think about them for 2022 and beyond.
Plus, we have a ton of news items from the NFL Combine.
Coaches, GMs have been speaking, a lot of quarterback notes to get to. And Heath Cummings wants to make a trade on the air that I think would be with Dave Richard in their Dynasty League.
So, Heath, the floor is yours.
Yeah, we've tried this before and haven't been able to pull it off.
But I think we're in a unique situation now
to where Dave has a glut of running
backs in our dynasty league.
I have a glut of rookie draft picks in our dynasty league.
And I just wonder like if he's going to start all those running backs.
Now Dave,
if you'll remember tanked last year.
And so right now in his starting lineup,
Jarrett Patterson and Jeff Wilson are his starting running backs.
And those are not the running backs I'm interested in trading for.
But he has David Montgomery.
He has Elijah Mitchell.
He has Tony Pollard.
He has Cam Akers, Michael Carter, Kareem Hunt.
That's six running backs.
Yeah.
He could use some more youth on his roster.
How about a little love for Jake Funk, by the way?
No, no love for Jake Funk.
He's on the team, too.
Crickets.
Jake Funk crickets.
He will not be on the team once Dave has to cut his roster down
to make room
for his 2022 draft picks.
All right,
Heath.
So what are we thinking here?
Let's make a trade.
Let's make it out.
You Dave,
you definitely need to make a trade.
I don't,
I don't have to make a trade.
No,
Dave,
I think the easiest way to go about this would you just tell me like,
which,
cause all of your running backs are kind of in the same range as well.
Yeah.
I don't know that you necessarily have a top 10 running back. like which because all of your running backs are kind of in the sameish range as well yeah um i
don't know that you necessarily have a top 10 running back and i think you have like seven top
30 running backs so who are the running backs that you value the least amongst your running
backs like i'm just want to trade for the cheaper ones this is i think there's this is trade strategy
101 if there's three or four guys that you don't really see a big difference between on someone's roster at the same position, just ask them who's the cheapest.
But I also know that running back depth is important in fantasy football.
It's kind of been, I might as well have it tattooed on my back at this point.
Yeah. point yeah so i don't i don't necessarily want to give it up especially considering the fact that as you said heath i don't have i don't have that gem you know psa 10 style running back for my
lineup i've got a bunch of guys that are startable for sure and a couple that could become potentially
gems i think you look at acres you look at carter elijah mitchell like they've
got a chance even though we can make the case against all three of the cheapest dave let's go
make the trade already you didn't mention you didn't mention dave montgomery is he cheaper than
mitchell and carter and he might be um i also kind of don't want to let you know which one
i think is the cheapest well see this is the thing that just chaps like rule one Oh one.
Here we go.
Completing a trade.
If we're not going to have open lines of communication,
then we're not going to be able to put a deal.
Like if we can't talk about how we value players,
I didn't put,
what's the point of even trying to negotiate?
I think the better thing for you to do is for you to rank those running
backs.
You don't have to tell me about it you i've already
ranked those running backs multiple places online you have to click like three links to find how i
view those running back well that's not gonna help a lot of mysteries let's all out there all right
well he says he wants the cheapest one okay so i would say that kareem hunt is the one that you
have ranked the lowest of that bunch and i will give away this information kareem Hunt is the one that you have ranked the lowest of that bunch. And I will give away this information.
Kareem Hunt is the one that I would be most willing to trade from that group.
Heath, what would you like to give up for Kareem Hunt?
If you're offering me 101 for Kareem Hunt, I think I will say yes.
I do have both 101 and 102 in that league.
I will take both of those for Kareem Hunt.
Adam, that's a deal.
Neither of those are available.
Damn it.
I would probably, though,
give up an early second-round pick for Kareem Hunt.
And what I would tell you is that's a no for now,
but if there's a player that slides in our rookie-only draft
and I'm like, oh, I got to have him,
you know, like I felt about Paris Campbell once upon a time.
What a trade that was between us, Heath.
Oh, my God.
Then maybe I would give up Kareem Hunt for that early second-round pick,
but for now, no, I would not do it just for the early second.
So you think you have six running backs
that are worth a first-round pick in the rookie draft?
It doesn't matter if I think that they're worth a first
or a second- round pick or not i'm not willing to trade off
kareem hunt just for a pick that i don't necessarily have a plan on yeah i couldn't even
tell you i couldn't even tell you how i've ranked the running backs and receivers in this rookie
class yet so once again once if i if i get to a point where I see 15, this is a
14-team dynasty league, and I'm
assuming that you're offering the first pick in round
two. I'm not sure if I even have that one.
Right. I don't know. You've got
all the picks. I have the first or the second.
It's 14 teams. Let's say it's the second pick in round
two. That means I would have to have a ranked list
of 16 rookies that I
would rather have than Kareem Hunt
for me to make that trade.
And right now, I don't have that list.
I don't even know who's won for me.
Yeah.
Okay, I think that's interesting, though.
I mean, that's a fair trade offer.
It's a good range.
And what about, yeah.
I do think we should maybe explore that
a little bit further.
Are you saying that you would just never trade?
Like, you traded Tom Brady
for the 14th pick in the draft without knowing who was going to be in the draft. I didn't know it was going to be the 14th, little bit further are you saying that you would just never trade like you traded tom brady for
the 14th pick in the draft without knowing who was going to be i didn't know it was going to
be the 14th and i probably would have done it even if i did know that it was the 14th
but you didn't know who your 14th ranked player was then but you were willing to take the draft
pick yeah because i was trading a player who i knew didn't have much time left in the league i
didn't know he was down to like singledigit games by the time I traded him.
I assumed Brady would play at least one more year.
I figured, okay, this is a depreciating asset.
I had Joe Burrow, and I was tanking.
Kareem Hunt is also a depreciating asset.
I agree.
Okay.
All right, we're on to something here, folks.
We'll keep you updated.
Let's get to the NFL draft first.
No, for now.
I'm not slamming the door in Heath's face.
What about a late first for David Montgomery?
I'm probably more
interested in the hunt for the second
than I am for Montgomery in the first.
What is a late first?
If that late first is like, what,
10th? If I got a list of
10 rookies that I love, gotta have,
and Montgomery is the price I have to pay to get one of them,
I would do it.
But David, or David, why did I say David?
Gabriel Davis is the guy that I had to part with last year
to just move up in our rookie draft to get Michael Carter
because I wanted Michael Carter that badly.
And now I feel kind of like a dope because Gabriel Davis.
You feel like a dope for trading Gabriel Davis
for Michael Carter?
No, he got Gabriel Davis and another pick.
Yeah, it was Davis and another pick.
It was just to move up.
Oh, okay, okay.
And I think it was to move up like three or four spots.
It wasn't even like a huge move up.
I might be wrong on that.
All right, let me promote a few things here.
Schrager usually tells me what to promote.
He didn't tell me today.
He's off today.
So we can promote whatever the hell we want.
We're going to have a March Madness bracket challenge
to get into the podcast league.
We'll let you know about that.
I'll send out a link when I create the March Madness challenge.
Fill out your bracket.
I think Heath did really well last year, if I recall.
Yeah, that's what i recall as well one of these last two years i think he did really well so i want thousands of people in this last year we didn't have that many if i
recall something like 800 that's really weak i want thousands of people in this and a really
big bracket challenge and cbs is the best place to do it. That's all we really have to promote.
Dave Heath and I were talking about our favorite In Excess songs before the show started.
If you're watching on YouTube and you want to comment
with your favorite song by In Excess, please do.
And we were talking about the TV show Euphoria.
So maybe we'll get to that at the end of today's show.
Dave has controversial Dynasty advice
that I don't think you should listen to.
I think this is really bad advice.
It goes against everything I believe in.
Dave, do you still believe in this
thing that you tweeted yesterday?
Don't offer a deal that you wouldn't accept
yourself. That wasn't the
original tweet.
I just don't think you want to see the
original tweet or say it. You can see
it all you want. I don't have a bleep button.
I don't want to make you edit.
What was what? Don't offer crappy deals or something yeah right that's fine don't offer crap
we'll say crap okay that's a lot and so this this all started with cal shoemaker posting a
uh a tweet about what what are the what should be the 10 commandments of dynasty was it dynasty
trade advice i think it was and that was my knee-jerk response is don't offer crap
and when i say that it's it's offering your fourth round pick for david montgomery in a dynasty league
making an offer that you know has 0.0 percent of a chance of getting accepted but you offer it
anyway just to initiate trade talks. I'm using
air quotes for people that are listening. All right. It's a horrible thing to do. If you want
to initiate trade talks, offer a deal that you would conceivably accept if it were offered to
you. Put that deal out there. It doesn't have to be your best deal, but it's got to be a deal that
at least doesn't make the person receiving it go
what a joke, reject,
and then they block you from
any future trades. Your reputation,
especially in a dynasty league
where you're playing with other people year after year,
I think it matters a little bit. This isn't
like an FFPC league where you're playing with
other strangers. You want to offer those crap trades
all the time. Go for it.
I think in a dynasty league where you want to try and have a relationship with other fantasy managers in
your league it's important to not be an idiot go ahead and put an offer out there that's it doesn't
have to like i said doesn't have to be your best offer but it's got to be something that you would
at least say okay maybe if this were offered to me i would take it myself i don't know you never
know when people are going to accept a horrible trade offer. If anybody
gets so mad about a bad trade
offer that they're going to not talk to you or
shun you from trading or would never trade with
you again, then they're probably a little bit too sensitive
and you should think about getting other friends.
But I get it.
I get it. I've been friends with you all this time.
You still make terrible trade offers.
Exactly, because I know you're not going to just walk away.
That's not even in Dynasty Leagues. That's in regular redraft.
I'll tell you what, I would defer to Heath on this one
because Heath's got more Dynasty experience than I do.
What's the best way to initiate a trade in a Dynasty League, Heath?
I think the first statement that Adam put in the notes
was way different than what you just said.
So I don't have anything problem with what you just said.
Yeah, I agree.
You should make an offer that it's at least conceivable someone might.
And I think maybe even taking it a step further,
you need to look at the other team's roster
and at least try to figure out what they're trying to do.
Don't offer DeAndre Hopkins to a team that's rebuilding.
Don't offer a team that's a top contender,
a first-round pick for one of their best players.
It doesn't make any sense.
That's not what they're doing right now.
They're trying to win or they're trying to rebuild.
At least make the offers make sense.
What about finding the teams where you think there's a fit?
I'm sorry, Adam.
That's all right.
Finding the teams where you think there's a fit
and instead of making an offer,
you just send a text or an email to them.
Hey, I think you might be interested in having Cooper Cup on your team.
Would you like to talk about making a trade for Cooper Cup?
Maybe be like, hey, I see you have five running backs that are all basically the same.
Which one would be the cheapest?
Fair.
It is a good strategy in all types of leagues is to sort of empower the other manager
and say, hey, put it in their court
and let them make the first offer.
I think that's a good way to reach out to someone
and make them more excited about it
rather than just throwing a trade offer in their inbox.
I think we all agree you don't want to be mediocre
in dynasty leagues.
You want to either go for it or or rebuild i mean look it might be a
league where you know six teams make the playoffs so you think you have a shot but i've kind of been
stuck in mediocrity in this one league for a really long time and um i wish i had been more aggressive
and tanking to be quite not tanking but uh getting some future picks and i i haven't so um yeah don't
be mediocre i think unless you guys disagree we can move on to our
next segment here which is not about dynasty at all it's combine news and notes and after this we
will uh we'll do one player at each position that has a lot to gain or lose we'll debate deandre
swift versus christian mccaffrey cd lamb versus dk metcalf versus aj brown we'll talk about some
some mid-range tight ends who maybe they have a lot of upside.
Maybe they don't.
TJ Hawkins and Dallas Goddard.
What do we think about them going forward?
But right now, let's just run through the news and notes, some of the things, some of
the headlines that we've seen coming out of the combine.
And here we go.
Miami will not be trading for Deshaun Watson.
Seattle has no intention of trading Russell Wilson.
Bruce Arian said that he won't trade Tom Brady.
If Brady wants to come back, he said,
you know, we're not in bad business.
We're not going to trade him to another team.
And that he also said that Tampa Bay is unlikely to trade
for a veteran quarterback.
And he also said that Jameis Winston,
they wouldn't close the door on it,
but that's probably not the best spot for Jameis Winston.
So it could be Kyle Trask's time in Tampa.
Right.
That's what they're making it out to be.
Could be. They're tasked with finding a quarterback.
So much for all these trades of
quarterbacks that were getting hyped
up a month ago. It's good
news if your name is Jameis Winston
or maybe even Mitchell Trubisky or Marcus
Mariota.
Jimmy Garoppolo is having shoulder surgery that's
going to sideline him until the summer.
There's a guy that's going to get traded.
Yeah, but that's not ideal.
It seems like a really good plan by Jimmy Garoppolo if he wanted to stay in San Francisco.
Right.
It was his idea to have the surgery.
You're trading for a guy.
You want to get him into the new system, whatever.
Look, maybe the trade happens late, but you want to have him in for the full offseason,
and he's having shoulder surgery, so Garoppolo won't be throwing until the summer.
Philadelphia general manager,
Howie Roseman supported Jalen hurts and San Francisco GM,
John Lynch supported Trey Lance.
He said that he's everything they thought he was when they traded up for
him.
Shockers.
I do wonder like how 49ers fans feel about that with what it costs,
the 49ers to go get him.
And the level of play that we got from Jimmy Garoppolo last year.
And the fact that Lance could not take the job from Garoppolo.
When you say the level of play we got from Garoppolo, that might be something people are split on.
What do you think?
It was fine, right?
It wasn't good. It wasn you think? It was fine, right? It wasn't good.
It wasn't bad. It was fine.
It was both good and bad,
I guess, actually. There was some good and there was some
like disastrously
bad. Yeah, well, he had
the Titans game. He hurt his thumb, and
he was awful after the thumb.
And obviously played with a shoulder injury and
a thumb injury. He was in a lot of pain down the
stretch.
So was Baker Mayfield. And down the stretch. But, yeah.
So was Baker Mayfield.
And Baker was awful.
I mean, at least Garoppolo was better than that.
Anyway, it was kind of stand-by-your-man at the Combine.
Arthur Smith expects Matt Ryan to be on the Falcons,
but it didn't say definitively.
Kevin O'Connell, Minnesota's new head coach,
said Kirk Cousins is their guy.
It's pretty clear the Giants are willing to trade
just about anyone, including Saquon Barkley.
Detroit acknowledged they need an outside wide receiver.
We're going to get to the Gronk thing.
That's probably the most interesting thing.
We'll save it for last.
A couple of other news items here.
Kansas City will likely use the franchise tag
on left tackle Orlando Brown.
Oh, the Lions have not decided on a play caller next season.
Heath, how much is that going to impact your projections
when they do establish who will call plays?
Not much because Dan
Campbell was not as much of an outlier
as Anthony Lynn in the games that he called
plays.
If it's Campbell
or if it's the new
guy, is it Ben Johnson? Ben Johnson.
I'm going to project pretty close to a league norm
in terms of their play calling.
They're going to want to run it a lot.
They still love their offensive line,
and they look at that as a superior strength for their team.
So it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they were,
at least when games were competitive, a little more conservative.
Mike Kosicki is a franchise candidate,
franchise tag candidates,
not really a franchise tight end.
That's according to pro football network.
Rondell Moore will be a bigger part of the offense.
And we talked about him last Monday.
It has to be.
I think we talked about him earlier this week.
Monday.
Yeah.
They're running out of receivers. If they're going to Christian Kirk is going to be. I think we talked about him earlier this week. Monday, yeah. They're running out of receivers.
Christian Kirk is going to be a popular free agent.
I think I read somewhere that he was hanging with Josh Allen
during the offseason already.
A.J. Green, I don't see him getting re-signed by Arizona.
Maybe there's a chance.
Andy Isabella has been given permission to seek a trade.
So they've got Nuke.
They've got Antoine Wesley. Wesley. So they've got Nuke, they've got Antoine Wesley,
Wesley, and they've got Rondell Moore.
So they're going to add to that group more than anything else.
And Moore should get an opportunity to actually catch passes
further than like five yards downfield.
The Cardinals and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers,
I just this week published the 2022 Opportunity Index.
And those two teams have more than 700 vacated opportunities.
That's targets plus running back rush attempts.
755 for Tampa Bay, 713 for Arizona.
No other team has more than 519.
So like enormous amounts of opportunity
in those two places.
And it's partially to say,
you know, there could be somebody that steps up,
but also like maybe they're going to bring in
wide receiver help,
but they've got to spend money at running back.
They've probably got to spend money at tight end.
Like one of those three spots,
they probably can't fill them all.
Yeah, it'd be a big question.
We talked about this with Moore on Monday.
You know, this is a guy whose ADOT was, I think, 1.2 yards.
That was his average depth of target, 1.2 yards.
So a lot of it was behind the line of scrimmage.
I mean, Dave, you said more than five yards downfield.
More than, how about negative five yards downfield?
He just was a gadget player, which I think,
I remember having this conversation when he got drafted.
I was a little concerned about Rondo Moore.
He just seemed like a great athlete at Purdue.
He was.
He kind of out-athleted everybody.
I don't like to pretend to be a scout or anything.
He just didn't feel like a polished receiver.
And then, to me anyway.
And then I think, Keith, you said, yeah,
but Arizona was a great landing space for him
because of the way they would use him. And I think all of that sort of played out, but they didn't, you know, but I just wish they had used as more of a gadget player his first year in the NFL and then they transitioned more his second year and then his third year he
became a true number one wide receiver I don't think Rondell Moore is going to be Tyree kill I
want to clarify that again but they're already talking about wanting to use him outside this
year expanding his roles what we don't know is how like players progress in different ways. Some players are really good at learning new skills,
even in the NFL, and diversifying their game.
If he does that, he could still be a very good fantasy wide receiver.
But he has things he has to improve.
He's got to stay healthy, too.
That's always been an issue with him.
Let's talk about Rob Gronkowski.
The Bills are reportedly interested in Rob Gronkowski,
according to The Athletic.
How fun would that be?
Would you draft him as the number six tight end
after whatever order?
Kelsey, Andrews, Waller, Kittle, Pitts?
No.
No? Where would you draft him?
You might talk me into eight,
but I think it's more like nine.
Why?
So besides Dallas Goddard, who else are you putting in front of him?
Schultz, Hawkinson.
Hawkinson for sure.
Schultz, if he's back in Dallas, probably.
Hawkinson for sure?
What?
Hawkinson for sure?
Especially if it's PPR
but you might, Gronk might catch
seven more touchdowns than TJ Hawkinson
I don't think that that's crazy hyperbole
I think that that's
possible but I also wonder
about how many targets
he gets
with Josh Allen there
I still think they're going to throw plenty,
even though Brian Dable's leaving.
But there's plenty.
Look, there was plenty of target competition
for Gronk in Tampa.
More there than there would be in Buffalo.
Yeah, maybe there's a chance he does get
around seven targets per game.
You don't think TJ Hawkins is going to
catch a touchdown pass?
He just played the last two years with Tom Brady
in one of the best offenses in football,
and in neither year did he have more than seven touchdown passes.
I still think he's got that skill.
He had six touchdown catches in 12 games last year.
Hawkinson had four touchdown catches in 12 games last year.
Dawson Knox had nine touchdown catches last year.
So he had six in 12, and Hawkinson had four in 12.
Gronk hasn't had more than eight since 2015.
Do you really think it's crazy that he could have seven more touchdowns?
That he could have 10 touchdowns?
I think it's more likely that Hawkinson plays seven more games than Gronk
than it is Gronk scores seven more touchdowns.
But I'm done docking Gronk for injury.
I think he could always miss two or three games,
but I think that he's...
He's going to be a 33-year-old tight end
that has missed games basically every year but 2020.
Isn't Kelsey 32?
But Kelsey plays 16 games almost every year.
Last year was 17.
Well,
I would get,
did Dawson Knox lead the team in red zone targets?
Cause the thing is,
you know,
Mike Evans was such a,
was such a red zone hog.
And I'm just going to check for Buffalo.
I got it.
I got it.
I'll look,
uh,
you know,
so I just think that,
uh,
no digs had a 34 knocks at 18 inside the 10 yard line. Digiggs had 34, Knox had 18. Inside the 10-yard line,
Diggs had 14, Knox
had 10. Knox did miss
three games, I think I said. So Knox was like
second, basically. Yeah, he was second.
Well, I would imagine that would mostly
shift to Gronk if Gronk is there.
Right, that's what I was thinking. Maybe seven's a little much,
but he'll out-touchdown
TJ Hawkinson
if he's on the bills.
I hope it happens.
That would be a lot of fun.
All right, it's a Dynasty show,
so let's talk Dynasty.
Nothing says Dynasty like Rob Gronkowski.
By the way, you know,
you got to talk about the rookies here and the latest mock draft from Ryan Wilson,
which he published on February 28th.
He had five wide receivers going in the first round.
This does look like a pretty good wide receiver class. He had two
guys from Ohio State, but he had in this order
Garrett Wilson of Ohio State, who I believe he had mocked
at number 11 overall, Traylon
Burks of Arkansas, Drake London of USC,
Jamison Williams of Alabama,
who's coming off a torn ACL,
and Chris Olave of Ohio
State, right at the end of round one.
Go to CBSSports.com's
NFL draft rankings, their
prospect rankings. We have five
running backs in the top
90, I want to say.
And those would be Isaiah Spiller
of Texas A&M, Brees Hall
of Iowa State, Kenneth Walker of
Michigan State, Kyron Williams of
Notre Dame, and Kennedy Brooks of Oklahoma.
And three of those guys
very, very,
very involved in the passing game.
Isaiah Spiller,
again,
A&M,
Brees Hall,
Iowa State,
Kyron Williams,
Notre Dame.
Spiller had 74 catches in three seasons.
Brees Hall had 23,
23,
and 36 catches in three seasons.
Kyron Williams had 77 catches for Notre Dame in his last two seasons.
So they've shown that ability out of the backfield and running routes.
That's excellent stuff.
So I don't know.
Give me,
so yeah,
go ahead.
Give me Isaiah Spiller to Arizona and give me breeze hole to Atlanta.
And let's,
let's go.
Like I, I,
I still think I'm not as excited yet about Walker as I am the other two,
but I do kind of feel like it's,
running back at least,
Hall, Spiller, Walker,
I don't care, I don't care, I don't care.
And I think for Walker,
I've been pumping him so much,
well, a little bit anyway.
We talk that much about these guys,
but I don't think I could make him
the number one guy right now
just because he's kind of more like
an old school bruiser,
and I don't think he looks like a third
down guy. He's someone who had
13 catches last year, 19
catches in his career at Michigan State.
I just assume that you don't love
Grease Hall because every time you watch him you see David Montgomery
and you hate David Montgomery.
Spiller looks
to me like the most explosive
of this group.
We've got a lot to have Emory hunt on.
We'll have the guys who do this for a living.
But I don't know.
You, you're a Brees Hall guy.
I'm going to plant my flag for Isaiah Spiller.
He's going to be my favorite running back in this class.
Somebody showed on Twitter just a couple of days ago,
and I don't remember who it was, so sorry.
Credit to you.
It's really silly to debate Brees Hall versus Isaiah Spiller right now.
They are both really, really good.
We'll see who gets the most draft capital and the best landing spot,
and that will be the favorite.
Yeah, probably.
All right, so it does factor in, though,
when you're looking at dynasty rankings here.
Do you think, Heath, there's a realistic scenario,
one of these running backs, one of these
wide receivers that's going to go
in the first round for the wide receivers, maybe the
late first or second round for the running backs
becomes
a top 12
overall dynasty player
instantly?
Probably not instantly,
but by next year, yes.
I think Hall or Spiller could have the type of year
in their rookie year that puts them in the...
Or Najee Harris or...
I mean, Javante Williams split all year
and still moved into the top 12.
So, yes, I think...
And definitely, whoever the best wide receiver is
will probably be a top 12 pick at the end of next year.
Here's a random question, Dave.
Would you rather have Travis ETN
or the third pick,
fifth pick of a rookie draft,
of the rookie draft?
I might lean toward the fifth pick
of the rookie draft
because there are some intriguing receivers
to go with the running backs
that we've talked about.
And it feels like, what's the ceiling for ETN?
To be a passing downs back at this point?
Wait a second.
That's so harsh.
Alvin Kamara is probably the ceiling.
That's so harsh.
That's his ceiling.
All right, maybe being Alvin Kamara is the ceiling.
He's tricky, though.
I mean, that's not an easy guy to evaluate.
Nope.
I have the first uh i think
eight picks ahead of etn okay right now so okay all right let's move on we'll get we'll get to
that in a little bit uh one player at each position that could move well i don't know
the best way to phrase this what's the best way to frame this uh segment here
i'm not sure which segment it is so one player at each position yes what the segment says yeah
i thought that's what you were i understand why you were confused after that um i think what you
said was do you have some guys you'd like to talk about because this is not one player at each
position it's three players at two positions two players at one position and one player at one position one topic for each position
one topic for each position and the first one is a guy who could move a lot during free agency it's
jamis winston um i don't know that him resigning in this current situation in new orleans is going
to move the whole needle a whole lot other than the fact that we will be guaranteed he's a starter.
And if you've got a three-year deal to stay in New Orleans
for legitimate money,
then I think that would move it quite a bit.
Where would you see him going?
Top 18-ish?
18-ish seemed right to me.
Okay.
I think we have more interesting positions to talk about, since we did just
talk about quarterback dynasty not
too long ago. So we're going to take a break, and when we come
back, we're going to talk about multiple players
at each position, including this
debate at running back. Would you rather have DeAndre
Swift, Javante Williams, or Christian McCaffrey
in your dynasty league? And
we'll talk about the running back landscape as a whole,
which is pretty interesting right
now. We'll take a break.
When we come back, RB debates in Dynasty.
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So Dave Richard,
would you rather have Javante Williams,
Deandre Swift or Christian McCaffrey in your dynasty league?
Who's the highest? The knee jerk reaction for me is Javante Williams,
just because he's young. There's plenty of upside left. I'm not as worried about injury risk with
him as I am with Swift and certainly with McCaffrey. The only thing that might change my
mind is if I've got a dynasty team that's in win now mode and the allure of
getting Christian McCaffrey theoretically at a discount because of what's happened in the past
two seasons would make me want to get him on the squad for the next year to two years versus
Javante who might legitimately have five years in front of them yeah i think if you were looking
at it in terms of like dynasty upside i would rank it mcafree swift williams and if you're
looking at it in terms of dynasty downside i'd probably rank it williams swift mcafree
i think swift's second in both that's's a little confusing. Are you saying...
I think McCaffrey has the most upside,
but also the most downside.
Isn't it more about most downside?
When you say most downside,
do you mean just like safe, playing it safe?
No, I mean that Christian McCaffrey
is going to be 26 years old this year.
And if he has another injury,
his value is probably not a top 25
running back in Dynasty.
Because then he'll be 27 going in the next year or three straight major
injuries.
We'll be done with them.
So Christian McCaffrey's downside is one play.
And the first round asset that you have is almost worthless.
I don't know if you remember,
but we did a dynasty show last year or two years ago where I went through
the ages of all the players that finished top five
and I think 26 was the most productive age for running backs and wide receivers
do you remember that by any chance I remember that 26 or 27 like 27 to 28 was when the fall
off started I don't necessarily remember that 26 was better than 24 but I know 24 to 26 is the peak
for running backs or for everything.
Yeah.
And receiver.
Yeah, 26 is a really good year.
And I was just looking, Austin Eckler did just have his age 26 season.
So something to keep in mind, it seems to be popping up.
Age 26, very productive.
After 28 for a running back, you don't find a lot of great seasons.
You really just don't after 28.
So definitely something to consider.
Okay. great seasons you really just don't after 28 so definitely something to uh to consider okay i think these guys are are what in your rankings dynasty running backs three four five three four i have
swift at three williams at four mccaffrey at five you go taylor naji swift giovante mccaffrey
correct all right dave what is your overall thought on the running back position?
Because when you're talking about 3-4-5 in our dynasty rankings,
you're talking about Swift and then Heaths,
who's never played more than 13 games and isn't really a feature back.
Or maybe he's like a new era feature back.
You're talking about Javante Williams, who's proven very little,
and Christian McCaffrey, who's barely played the last two seasons.
Are we looking at just a bad state at running back?
No, because I think there's still a lot of running backs
who can put up numbers.
I just think that you have to look at the position
as a little more disposable
than it's even been in the past.
And it's almost like it's better off if
you have a short-term view of the running backs in dynasty unless you've got that rare young back
that either has proven that he can be an excellent running back like jonathan taylor somebody like
that naji harris has proven that he can be a really good back i don't know if excellent is
the word i would use or you've got a running back that has the potential to do it and giovante would be the first name that would
roll off my tongue in that regard michael carter isn't necessarily in that same tier as giovante
williams but he's got a chance to play five plus years two years ago i would have said the exact
same thing about saquon barkley though and i would have said that saquon barkley he's got five more great years in front of him christian mccaffrey two years ago
oh hell yeah he's going to be amazing for the next five years at minimum and you can see how
fast that falls apart could absolutely happen to the tailors and and giovante williams's of the
fantasy world so i just you got i think it's almost better off to go, I don't want to say zero RB when it comes to dynasty,
but you almost want to not invest too heavily in that position outside of rookie-only picks.
Because I think if you've got a rookie-only pick and you've got somebody who you think
can be productive for a long time staring you in the face, you take them.
That's what those rookie picks are for.
But when you're trying to make a trade, I think you almost have to devalue that position
a little bit more than you would
in a regular redraft league.
And if you've got like five or six of them
that are being devalued,
you should probably
get them off your roster.
So how do you value someone like
Dalvin Cook, who will be in his age 27
season, or Joe Mixon, who will be
in his age 26 season? Can we expect three more good, or Joe Mixon, who will be in his age 26 season.
Can we expect three more good years from Joe Mixon?
And does that make him a top 12 running back?
Does that make him a top 12 overall player?
Give me a Joe Mixon analysis in the Dynasty League.
He is my number eight running back,
but not a top 12 player.
I think he's worth a second round pick.
It helps him.
He's in that same range.
There's a bunch of guys after you get past.
We talked about my three through five.
Then I've got Eckler at six and Dobbins at seven.
Then there's a lot of running backs between 25 to 27, 28
that are kind of interspersed next.
I think you can count on two more good
years from Joe Mixon and hope
you get a third.
Yeah, we need Dobbins. We need Acres.
We need that class of 20.
Was that 2020?
We were so excited about them going into
2021. We need
them to kind of carry the load because
where's Zeke?
Where's our Zeke?
Where's our Dalvin Cook? Where's our workhorse running backs? I don't know how many of those
exist anymore. I don't think they are.
I think they just may not. But still, there
will be running backs. There are one,
two, three, four, five
running backs who were in my top
10 back in September who are no longer.
Who?
Dalvin Cook, Alvin
Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Aaron
Jones, Ezekiel Elliott.
Very
flimsy position. Alright, let's go to
our next debate. We'll go to wide receiver.
Yeah, disposable is a good word.
Flimsy is not.
CeeDee Lamb versus DK Metcalf
versus AJ Brown. Lamb, Metc metcalf brown is that the way you
rank it heath it is okay dave how would you rank them in dynasty lamb metcalf brown uh i'm very
tempted to rank them in the exact opposite order i think that i think that i think that's that's
why i chose these three because i think dave is closer to the public ranking of them than I am.
So Dave is thinking Brown, Metcalf, Lamb,
and Heath has it Lamb, Metcalf, Brown.
Okay, debate. Dave, go.
I'm a little skittish on Lamb
after what happened in the second half of last season.
What would make me feel a lot better
is if Amari Cooper was off that
roster and they brought in a different
receiver to work in three receiver sets
and they bring in Gallup, they bring
back Schultz, and Lamb becomes
the number one. And we see
him become the alpha in that offense
like I thought he was going to be.
There were two times last year where I thought
we were seeing that. Once was in the preseason.
It just looked like it was happening.
Dak was talking up Lamb differently than he was talking up other receivers
in that offense.
And every single play that we saw on social media was him picking passes
off the helmets of opposing DBs.
At minimum, it looked like it was going to be a bad year
for the Cowboys defensive backs.
That didn't happen, but it did happen where Lamb got off to a good start,
got a lot of targets.
And then something shifted in that offense and lamb.
I'll tell you what happened.
Michael Gallup came back and they used lamb a lot more in the slot.
And he wasn't nearly as efficient as he was when he was outside.
It's weird.
And I'm wondering if that's,
if that continues to happen,
that makes me a little bit nervous about lamb.
I'm going to spend a lot of time working on DK Metcalf this offseason.
I've already started.
I've got a stat that's wild.
First half of the year, those first eight games when DK Metcalf was on fire,
second year in a row, by the way, where he was awesome in the first eight games of the year,
he converted almost 92% of his air yards into receiving yards.
I've never seen anything like that.
And you go back and you watch,
he's not running as many downfield routes in those first eight games.
He's actually, for him, running routes really well
because he's not as fluid and shifty as someone like A.J. Brown, for example.
And he was getting open.
He was making contested catches.
He was catching off-target throws,
whether they were from Russ or from Geno Smith.
He looked the part of a guy, you'll like this, Adam,
a guy who could be the best receiver
in the National Football League.
He looked like it.
And then I haven't really dug into the second half of the year.
My guess is that they were trying him on more downfield stuff,
and he wasn't converting nearly as much, I believe.
Don't quote me on it, but the air yard conversion rate in the second half of the year was less than 40 so that's a humongous change when you
think about it and that means he was being used differently that's something that i'll write about
at some point this year maybe sooner than later and then aj brown is elusive we've seen him put
up huge numbers before with ryan tannehill as his quarterback tannehill won't be his quarterback
forever eventually he will get a quarterback fingers crossed that's better than tannehill numbers before with Ryan Tannehill as his quarterback. Tannehill won't be his quarterback forever.
Eventually, he will get a quarterback, fingers crossed,
that's better than Tannehill, and he could really take off.
And the way that the NFL is right now,
I think that wide receivers that can make plays after the catch and can do a bunch of different things to get open on their own
are going to be extremely valuable and heavily targeted.
A.J. Brown fits that to a tee.
And I think he's got a long time to go.
I like all three of these guys, but Brown is the one who's my favorite of the three.
Yeah.
These guys are a five, six and eight for me at wide receiver.
So I don't dislike any of them.
I, I almost jumped in in the middle.
I feel like it's going to lose effect that I didn't, but the fact that we started a C.D. Lamb versus D.K.
Metcalf debate with concern over
what C.D. Lamb did in the second half of last year.
C.D. Lamb was a lot
better than D.K. Metcalf
in the second half last year.
And I feel like
there is, amongst the three of them,
a better chance for Lamb's situation
to improve because Gallup
could be gone. Cooper could be gone cooper could be gone
there's more i don't i don't think tyler lockett's going anywhere right now they love him
and i i think it's less likely that that goes somewhere than russell wilson but maybe the the
thing that is the tiebreaker for me is that at the start of this year cd lamb's going to be 23 years
old at the start of this season aj brown's gonna be Lamb's going to be 23 years old. At the start of this season,
A.J. Brown's going to be 25.
It's a two-year difference.
And I think you have more reason for hope for Lamb to improve on his skill set
at a younger age
with less experience in the league.
And I don't think it's unfair
to be more concerned about A.J. Brown's health
than the other two.
Yeah, sure.
Now, okay, who's seven, by the the way in between this group i re-kill okay
is cooper cup ahead or behind these three uh every time i update it cooper cup is a guy who
moves a little bit right now he's fourth and um like the thing is that's a that's a question that's
entirely dependent on the state of your team.
For a rebuilding team, it's not close.
You'd much rather have any of these three guys.
But for a contender, I'd rather have Kemp.
Now, we're talking Lamb, Metcalf, A.J. Brown.
Are they ahead of Joe Mixon in your dynasty rankings?
I think he's probably right in the middle of them.
No, he's behind all of them.
Mixon's behind all of them? Okay.
Overall, I've got Lamb 10, Metcalf 11, Brown 13.
Joe Mixon's 20th. And what about the DeAndre Swift,
Javante Williams, McCaffrey group?
Those three are ahead of the wide receivers for me.
How about you, Dave?
Would you take these young stud receivers
or Swift, Javante, McCaffrey?
Or does it depend on your team?
I think if we're doing a rookie startup draft,
I think I'd lean toward the receivers.
I am a little bit concerned with Metcalf
that his first eight games of the 2020 season are sort of propping
up his value because, you know, Dave, you talked about it's been two years in a row, first eight
games, but let's take a look at the difference here. The first eight games of 2020, he averaged almost 100 yards per game, 98.5 yards per game. The first eight games of 2021,
not even close, 72.5 yards per game. So even when he was on pace for 17 touchdowns
and fewer targets, but 15 yards per catch compared to like 18 and a half yards per catch.
He wasn't as good in this eight game stretch stretch as he was in the eight-game stretch in 2020.
So as much as I love DK Metcalf, I don't know.
I guess I'm a little concerned that even when Russell Wilson
was awesome at the beginning of the year,
here were the yards.
Here were the yards for DK Metcalf in the four games
that Wilson started and finished.
60, 53, 107, and 65.
Then he had 98 the next week
with a partial game from
Russell Wilson, to be fair.
I don't know.
His 17-game pace
in those first eight games that you referenced
was 1,232 yards.
That's not that good. It's not bad,
but it's not a guy I'm taking in the first
round of a dynasty draft, I guess.
Then, obviously, the second half was much
worse, which I think was largely
partially due to Russell Wilson.
And the rest
is a damn mystery. He also had a foot injury
that he was playing with, and he had foot surgery. So that
could have been a big part of it, too.
I guess what I'm saying is we've had now
three seasons of Metcalf.
The first eight games of 2020
might be the outlier here.
Maybe they're making us overrate him?
Question mark?
I'm Ron Burgundy?
Yeah.
I don't...
No? Not feeling that?
He's a mid-range number one wide receiver.
I think maybe we were overrating him
when we had him at one or two or three amongst the wide receivers because he was there for a lot of people
yeah i think i'm inclined to just still think he's awesome and capable of being a total beast
and not get too in the weeds with the stats there's just no reason at this point that you
would value him over chaser jefferson so like the the best he could be his
third okay let's go to our third question here's a tight or fourth question it's a tight end
question how much upside do tj hockinson and dallas goddard actually have heath and i asked
this question because they've kind of been ranked projected both in redraft and um dynasty on like
the theory of what they could be.
We've projected that both these guys could jump into the top three.
And I'm just, especially with Goddard,
who's now going to be 27 at the start of the year,
I'm not sure we have any reason to think
that he could be a lot more than what he's been.
Which is why...
Especially in an offense with Jalen Hurts at quarterback
that's going to be extremely run
heavy. Hawkinson kind of had his chance. I would doubt if the Lions go into this season thinking
that Hawkinson is going to be their first option in terms of targets. I would say it's going to be
ARSB and there may be another wide receiver that's ahead of them as well. So I think my answer to
that question would be they've got mid-range, number one tight end upside,
and they're not so old that you need to discount them for your age.
So they are the number six and seven tight end in my dynasty rankings.
But I see people ranking Hawkinson ahead of Waller or ahead of Kittle
or ahead of Kelsey because he's still 25 years old.
And I just can't do that because I'm not sure he has the upside
to give you a season like they can this year sure what happens this year when he doesn't dominate for the Lions and he's a good
fantasy tight end but he's not a difference maker for Detroit does Detroit give him a huge extension
does he settle for a contract to stay in Detroit? Does he move on somewhere else? By the time that Dallas Goddard's arrow points straight down,
Hawkinson might be on the same decline,
maybe a little bit behind him.
So I like Hawkinson better because he's younger,
and I think he's got maybe a little bit more time on the clock
to be helpful for fantasy than Dallas Goddard.
But to me, it's very close between the two.
So close that if I were in a dynasty startup
and I see Hawkinson go ahead of Goddard,
I almost put the periscope up
looking for Goddard
within the next 12 or so picks after Hawkinson.
Okay.
I don't know that there's a whole lot of difference
between another
first round tight end for the detroit lions
through three seasons i mean his rookie year was better kind of well but we only had two seasons
from but how many seasons we have from hockinson? I'm sorry. Three? Three. He has been in the league for three years,
and he has 1,600 yards and 12 touchdowns.
So if we could, yeah.
Boy, did he come out firing.
His first two games, right?
Yeah, he was amazing.
45 PPR points in those first two games.
Yeah.
Last 10 games, he had 420 yards and two touchdowns,
and his 17-game pace was 714
yards, 76 catches, and three touchdowns
in his last 10 games.
Yeah, so
I actually wanted to talk about Goddard
if you don't mind, because he actually had
in terms of his rates
an incredible season. Yards
per catch, his yards per target. 10.9
yards per target blew away his
previous career high. How about this? He had
nine games out of 15
with five or more targets.
In those nine games, Dallas
Goddard scored 12 or more PPR fantasy
points seven times. 12 or more
PPR fantasy points. That's what Darren Waller
and Dalton Schultz basically averaged.
They averaged just a little bit more than 12 PPR
fantasy points per game. He got that or
more in seven of nine games with only five or more targets.
On a per-target basis, I don't know.
He may have been the best tight end in football.
He was so good.
Very close to it, anyway.
He was a top-ten tight end despite being 17th in targets.
I would like that stat a lot more if he didn't have games in the second half of the season with two targets
against the Broncos,
three targets against the giant,
four targets.
He got hurt against the Broncos.
He left pretty early.
Okay.
The two games against the giants then.
Yeah.
Yeah.
He had a combined three catches for 28 yards.
Yeah.
You know,
he had these games and,
and there were a couple of games where,
uh,
Jalen hurts through 16 or 17 passes,
so that's obviously a problem.
And also, if you look at his last 10 games after the Earths trade,
he caught two touchdowns.
They were both in the same game, and they were both from Gardner Minshew.
Jalen Hurts did not throw Dallas Goddard the ball near the end zone.
It was very strange.
I don't know how much Jalen Hurts threw the ball in the end zone. It was very strange. I don't know how much Jay ran at all. But he did have a 23%
target share
without Zach Ertz after the Ertz trade.
And he was great per target.
So I do wonder if that makes you think
that there's more potential
there. You know what I can
look up really quickly is his target per route
run rate after the
Ertz trade. i bet that i
bet that percentage is high anything that's higher than 20 is usually good for that it started in
week seven so week seven to week 17 give me 30 seconds okay oh that's oh we got to do some trade
talk too we'll we'll do a which side do you want by the way heath basically produced this show so
thank you to heath for for great work there and we had some comments i wanted to bring up from the chat
which was let's see it's been a long time oh is it me or are all of you guys getting better
looking every day and then the next comment was except adam lol so that was interesting
hey i mean if you're looking for
island real estate or
property management, we know where to go.
Yes, Island Real Estate and Property Management Incorporated
is asking these questions. He also asked, do you think
Cam Akers is worth keeping in Dynasty and what round?
In a keeper league,
Cam Akers, anywhere from
I would say round four
or later is worth the keep.
I was going to say round three.
Sean Brenneman has Carter, Swift, Gervonta, Dobbins, and Hunt at running back.
Dave, you should probably pay attention to this description.
I am, I am.
First of all, does Sean think we're getting more handsome?
The Pitts owner wants DeAndrere swift would you make that trade
for sure um hell yeah i'd trade swift for pits that offer is not the pits i like swift more than
pits but um i would i just can i can i get a second round pick thrown in and then i'd do it
wow oh you're so greedy.
Looking for the Jerry Krause sweetener on top of it.
No, it's just I don't have pits as high as Swift.
Okay, what's your top five overall dynasty ranking?
Taylor, Chase, Jefferson, Harris, Swift.
Taylor, Chase, Jefferson, Harris, Swift.
Dave, what about you?
It's probably something like that.
How is Kyle Pitts not there?
Oh, wait.
Did you say Swift fifth?
Yes.
Oh, no.
Swift isn't there for me.
Pitts would be ahead of Swift.
Okay.
But a wide receiver might be ahead of Pitts.
I don't have dynasty rankings.
I probably should.
Don't tell the boss.
I've got the target per route run rate for our guy.
24%.
And is that good?
Yes.
Okay.
All right.
Which side would you rather have in trade?
Austin Eckler and Chris Godwin
or J.K. Dobbins and Elijah Moore?
Austin Eckler and Chris Godwin
or Dobbins and Elijah Moore?
This is in Dynasty, obviously.
Okay, Dave, I think, Dave,
we're looking for you to answer here.
That's how the segment works
because this is based off Heath's trade charts.
I know my answer. I was giving Heath a shot.
No, all of these I put together
for you guys, and I put that in the email.
I put these together for you guys because they are
all virtual ties in my
dynasty rankings.
I would take Eckler and Godwin.
I'm taking Eckler and Godwin.
Because you've got the win-now factor for both of those guys.
Not that you can't win now with Dobbins and Moore.
I'm scared of what's coming for Dobbins.
Coming off the ACL, Ravens offense potentially reverting back
to where they were before this year.
Lamar under center, that's going to take some work away from Dobbins.
Gus is going to take work away from Dobbins.
And as much as I love Elijah Moore, I don't know what to make of Zach Wilson.
Not ready to say that Zach, oh, don't worry about it.
Zach will be better next year.
I don't know if that's going to be true.
I figure that Godwin will play somewhere
where he's got a capable quarterback.
He's also coming off of an ACL, right?
He is, but I think that there's still
a lot of career left for Chris Godwin.
He might not have a good year in 2022, but I think he's going to have a pretty of career left for Chris Godwin. He might not have a good year in 2022,
but I think he's going to have a pretty strong career
where he continues to be a target hog five years,
five more years for him.
And Eckler doesn't have five years in front of him.
He might not have more than two or three,
but I do think that Eckler will pay off better now
than Dobbins will, and both of them five years from now
might be afterthoughts in the National Football League.
Okay, DeAndre Hopkins.
This one is actually repulsive
and makes my stomach hurt reading it.
DeAndre Hopkins and Melvin Gordon
or Rashad Bateman and Tony Pollard?
I don't like it.
Hopkins and Gordon or Bateman and Pollard?
Who would you rather have?
I'm holding on to the veterans,
hoping that Hopkins can have a nice bounce back year,
hoping that Melvin Gordon has a rear like he had last year.
And maybe I can turn those two into something better at the trade deadline in
my dynasty league or worst case scenario.
I get numbers out of them in 2022 and i trade them off
for maybe a slightly worse pair uh in the spring of 2023 and that's the that's the thing is i think
like i would understand especially with hopkins if you want to hold on and see because he could
have two good games and a contender could believe he's back and then you could get something really
good for him but both hopkins and gordon could like, if they, if things go wrong, you're not getting
a slightly worse pair for them. You're not getting a third round pick for them.
Um, I, I, I look at this and I think Bateman was a late first round pick last year.
I don't think you're getting more than a second for Melvin. So this is a lot like a late first and a second round pick for these two guys.
If I'm not a contender, I'm easily taking a late first for Hopkins or a second for Gordon.
I don't really know why people are so down on DeAndre Hopkins.
He has a Hall of Fame receiver and he still, I think, has, what is he, 29 this year?
Yes.
So I think just based on what receivers of his caliber have done,
it's not uncommon for them to be good up until they're 31, 32.
And I don't know.
I think he's being judged a little bit too harshly on his yards from this past year, personally.
I do want to clarify that Hopkins, he's being judged harshly on his targets.
And that might change because they let enough receivers go
that he gets a bunch of targets.
But his target share fell to like,
he and Christian Kirk and A.J. Green
were basically taking turns leading the team in targets.
It was almost an even split at 20% for each of them,
which is awful.
And he will be 30 before this season starts.
So I think what you said is right like you
might get one or two more good years from deandre hopkins um but again he's one of those guys that
the floor is almost nothing if this year goes bad his floor in terms of his dynasty value right right
all right patrick mahomes and travis kelsey this is fun or jo Joe Burrow and Kyle Pitts.
Burrow and Pitts or Mahomes and Kelsey.
As tempted as I am to take the Chiefs combo,
I believe that Kyle Pitts will be a productive tight end for many years.
And that means the difference between Mahomes and Burrow,
I'm not sure that that'll be a big difference.
So I will take the Burrow-Pitts side ahead of Mahomes and Kelsey.
Me too.
I think everyone would, and I'm just going to be a homer and defend the other side.
Because like I said, I think it's basically even.
And if I was a contender, I'd be really tempted. Because I don't really... Last year, Mahomes had his worst year, right?
And Burrow averaged nine yards per attempt and had a 6% touchdown rate. And Mahomes was a point
and a half better per game. I don't think we have any reason to expect that Burrow is going to close
that gap in the coming year.
Neither of these guys, they're basically the same age.
Mahomes might be a year older.
And Pitts, how much does he have to increase to get into Travis Kelsey's neighborhood in the next two years?
He needs to score a bunch of touchdowns and see a slight uptick in targets.
But I think he's got the potential to see a significant uptick in targets
and have several years where he's in the double-digit touchdown range.
I wonder how many more years can we look at Travis Kelsey and say,
that guy's going to get me 15 PPR points per game without me worrying a little bit.
How many years do I have to wait for Kyle Pitts to get me 15 fantasy points?
I think the answer to that might be zero.
I think there's a chance that that could happen as soon as this coming year.
And I know that Kelsey will do it again this coming year.
Like I feel that it's not crazy to say that there's no reason to believe that
there's a decline coming for Travis Kelsey,
other than looking at his birthday and saying see he's 33 years old but two years from now does Kelsey
fall to father time while Kyle Pitts is on the up and up I think it is his football career would
fall to father time right not no I mean that he like falls into a you know
no okay oh a pit okay yeah bottomless bottomless yeah constantly like this like one of those
baseball players in the sims that famous simpsons episode which one falls into a bottomless pit
ozzy smith i think dave you know we haven't heard from him in a long time i think he falls in i'm
gonna i gotta look this up before we go.
All right, anyway, that's it for today's show.
I don't have time to look this up.
Falls in the bottomless pit.
Ozzie Smith, yes!
All right, we're out of here, everybody.
We'll talk to you on Monday with a...
What if I gave you a 2023 first for Montgomery?
It might even be better than a late first.
Who knows what it'll be?
Take that.
I might.
Yes.
Uh-oh, I just got a buzz on my phone.
Is this you, Heath, making the offer?
It's Ozzie Smith.
We're out of here.
We'll talk to you Monday.
We have a game called Mystery Draft
or something like that.
We're working on a title,
but it should be a fun show on Monday
with some NFL Combine notes from Jamie
as we'll be back from the Combine. FFT in five, we got a free agency
preview. So you can check that out. Have a great weekend, everybody. See ya.