Fantasy Football Today - Dynasty Dynamics: 2024 NFL Free Agent Risers and Fallers (03/15 Fantasy Football Today Dynasty)

Episode Date: March 16, 2024

Looking to dominate your fantasy league just like your redraft league? Look no further than Fantasy Football Today Dynasty hosted by our very own Heath Cummings! Download and follow Fantasy Football Today Dynasty on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you find your podcasts.  Fantasy Football Today Dynasty is available on the Audacy app and Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever you listen to podcasts! The 2024 NFL free agency period has reshaped the fantasy landscape, bringing significant changes you can't afford to miss. Ben Gretch joins Heath Cummings on this episode to zero in on the blockbuster moves of Derrick Henry (9:00) to the Ravens, Aaron Jones (14:35) signing with divisional rival Vikings, Austin Ekeler's (19:02) new chapter with the Commanders, and Calvin Ridley's (22:00) addition to the Titans. Then we dive into the biggest news of the day with Keenan Allen (26:55) traded to the Bears and Marquise Brown (33:02) signing with the Chiefs. Join us as we break down what these transitions mean for your Dynasty league strategies, exploring the fantasy implications and helping you make informed decisions to elevate your team. Stay ahead of your competition by understanding these key shifts in the NFL. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I am so dreading groceries this week. Why? You can skip it. Oh, what? Just like that? Just like that. How about dinner with my third cousin? Skip it. Prince Fluffy's favorite treats? Skippable.

Midnight snacks? Skip. My neighbor's nightly saxophone practices? Uh, nope. You're on your own there. Could've skipped it. Should've skipped it. Skip to the good part and get groceries, meals, and more delivered right to your door on Skip. Metrolinks and Crosslinks are reminding everyone to be careful as Eglinton Crosstown LRT train testing is in progress.

Please be alert as trains can pass at any time on the tracks. Remember to follow all traffic signals, be careful along our tracks, and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. I am your host, Heath Cummings, and we are joined today by a new friend of this show, an old friend here at CBS. It's Ben Gretsch. Gretsch, I am so happy to have you on. I'm so looking forward to talking to you. What's been going on?

I've been, you know, doing my own thing. I have a sub stack newsletter, um, stealing signals. You can find it up in Gresham sub stack.com. Um, it is a premium newsletter. It costs a little money to sign up for, but, uh,

yeah, I write right there now and do some podcasting and always love to get back on with you. I was on with Adam and Dave and Jamie a week or two ago. That was an absolute blast. Always, uh, great to get back on and talk with you. I was on with Adam and Dave and Jamie a week or two ago. That was an absolute blast. Always great to get back on and talk with you guys. You've been on a few times and we talked about this before the show. It's like they like to schedule you on the days that I'm not going to be there for some reason. I don't know if Adam just can't handle both of us at the same time again. That was too much for him, but I'm glad that we are getting to talk here and i'm not gonna say i'm glad that adam's not a part of it but i'm glad that we're

getting ready to talk here on today's show we are going to talk more free agent reactions i was putting this together yesterday and i was like okay we didn't talk about derrick henriette or aaron jones or but the wide receiver was a little light that changed last night we've got marquise brown news we've got keenan allen news nobody that, at least not after Mike Williams was cut. We will talk about Ben's rookie evaluation philosophy, and I've got at least one email. I may try to sneak a second in. Ben, we start every show with three questions for our guest. The first question is the same for every guest. What is your one non-negotiable rule or setting for a dynasty league? And you're not allowed to say super flex.

Oh, that's a good one. I will say, I mean, it's a little unfair for the non-negotiable thing, but the first thing that comes to mind is I'll say best ball. I think it's a really good fit with dynasty. I love the off- season element of dynasty, but in season, I'm playing a lot of redraft leagues in some of the higher stakes contests as well.

And I don't like setting my teams and dealing with trades and all of that stuff in dynasty in season as much. So I've really, really loved the best ball ones that I've started and been a part of in these last like five years. And it's, I think the, the, the best way to play dynasty personally. I think it's particularly popular amongst people who do this for a living because you're right. We get to Tuesday or Wednesday night and there's

23 teams that I need to go to that drops for. And all of a sudden I hate this game for like a two hour period. Um, but also the thing I think i love specifically about best ball for dynasty is you have an ability over two or three years in a dynasty league to create a roster that is just stacked full of wide receiver ones and twos or rb ones and twos and making a lineup just i feel like you're almost penalized for the depth that you create because now you have to choose between too many good options and so i do think it's even better for dynasty than it is for redraft love that answer we'll go on to question number two and i i talked with jj yesterday on his show and i really tried to emphasize that like when i'm doing rookie evaluations i lean into the work of people in this industry who i think do things really well. I've been a huge fan of Matt Waldman, who will be on the show in a couple of weeks.

Anytime JJ says the model says this, my ears always perk up. I'm going to have him on the show in April as well. Is there one guy that you really kind of lean on more than other or even a couple for rookie evaluations? I mean, I definitely have a lot of respect for JJ. My buddy Pat Corain does great work. I would have to say Sean Siegel over at Roto-Viz, which is where I started my career. I've worked with Sean for a my rookie because I was a big redraft guy before I started in the industry about eight years ago. I'd played over a decade of redraft and then I'm relatively newer at Dynasty. I think my first year of Dynasty was 2016. So it took a little bit more learning, I guess, in the later stages. I feel a lot more comfortable in the redraft streets, but he's somebody that from that time I was already working at Rotovis and learned a lot

from. And he and the guys over at Rotovis and that team, they do an incredible job with their rookie evals. Excellent, excellent stuff. Appreciate that. And I think everybody, we have the arguments of the film versus data, of course, every year this time of year, but it's not just that. There's a lot of different things versus data, of course, every year this time of year, but it's not just that. There's a lot of different things. Age-based production, breakout age, we get all the RAS scores and everything like that. Is there anything that you think that the average dynasty manager is undervaluing when it comes to evaluating rookies? That's an interesting question because I think it depends where you're playing. I play in a lot of analyst leagues where I think you get too much emphasis probably on the analytics and on the profiles and on a lot of the models and a lot of that, I mean, that's always been the most predictive. And I think sometimes the

profiles that we don't like that the teams do like, and they, and they're willing to take like a late first round flyer, not flyer, but a late first round pick on a, on a wide receiver that the fantasy community, maybe the more analytics focused dynasty community doesn't like the profile. A lot of times those guys will fall a lot farther than they should given the team buy-in of a first round pick. Now that's in certain, certain situations. There are other leagues, profile a lot of times those guys will fall a lot farther than they should given the team buy-in of a first round pick now that's in certain certain situations there are other leagues a little more casual leagues that i'll get questions about where i'm like well maybe draft capital is being overemphasized and then you can start talking about some of the profiles um and then i would

talk about market share dominator rating yards per attempt. Some of those are some of the good wide receiver metrics that I would look at. And I think some of those can be underrated as well. I love that. And I think even within our analyst leagues, I don't know if you believe this, but it almost feels like actual production has been minimized quite a bit. And I do still think that matters. We saw that with tank dell last year like the size was obviously a concern but then once he got the the round three draft capital like you look at what he had actually produced on the football field and i think that

that matters maybe more especially when you're in a real like a power five conference i think that matters maybe more than some people are putting some on it absolutely i mean that's that's where you know the market share dom share dominating yards per team attempt, all the stuff I was talking about. That's, I mean, the best way to put it is production typically leads to production. Good players typically show you they're good. I mean, if they've been producing,

if they're putting up numbers in college, all the stats that I threw out there are meant to adjust for the team volume, the market share dominating yards per team attempt. We're adjusting for how much a team actually passes. So you're not just looking at the raw numbers, but you're making a little bit of adjustment because there's some big differences in college. But if you can produce, if you can put up numbers like you just said, typically that means you're good at football. I mean, it really is that simple sometimes.

Yeah, so let's just look at production and draft capital and we'll let everything else be the tiebreakers. Right. But I think it's another good point, though, is there's such a wide range of people playing fantasy football now. And I think Chris Towers talks about this a lot from the baseball perspective, at least I've seen this year, is that more and more of the analysis seems to be geared towards high stakes or best ball type

leagues that are that are really heavy analyst centered and there's a there's a huge chunk of the population maybe 70 of the population that's playing fantasy football in a completely different universe you ever thought about like the gap that exists between those two worlds oh absolutely i mean that's why i just you know when I answered the question a second ago about the analyst leagues and then the other leagues that I get questions about, it's like, these are very different types of leagues. And there's certainly different types of analysis

that you want to be able to give depending on the different leagues that people are in. Because I think everything is related to cost in fantasy and the costs are different in these types of leagues. And so the advice should then be different depending on the market that you're in right and the actual league that you're in what the league values um and so yeah i i think there's a lot of nuance on that as we talk about different approaches and things like that yeah if you want to look at that difference in cost just wait until august and let's compare underdog best ball ADP and CBS and Yahoo and ESPN ADP.

And you're going to see just completely like you're almost playing different games. Let's take a short break here at the start. And then we're going to jump into the free agent reactions that we haven't got to yet on the show. Bumble knows it's hard to start conversations. Hey, no, too basic. Hi there. Still no.

What about hello, handsome? Who knew you could give yourself the ick? That's why Bumble is changing how you start conversations. You can now make the first move or not. With opening moves, you simply choose a question to be automatically sent to your matches. Then sit back and let your matches start the chat. Download Bumble and try it for yourself. Whether in the game or in life,

the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind

to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations, or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada, insurance designed for life. Okay, so we are going to start with Derrick Henry on the Ravens. And this one, I've already gotten a hate tweet about, Ben, so I'm going to let you do most of the analysis. People are not pleased that I'm not as excited as everyone else about Derrick Henry on the Baltimore Ravens. It's a very good landing spot for real football, I think. I think the combination of Lamar and Derrick Henry should terrify defensive coordinators. But it's a 30-year old running back changing teams. And he's not going to catch passes and he's probably going to have a career low in rush

attempts, or at least for the last four or five seasons because of the guy he plays next to. I'm not particularly happy about this for Henry and I wouldn't be buying if I was a contender. It's a tricky one. And again, it's going to depend on the type of league you're in and the costs and all of those things. Cause he is a much older back.

I do think it's interesting as we talk through like age curves and those types of things that it's like one of the big things that I've been learning more and more or interested in more and more is this idea of age curves. And we look at things when people do analyses on these, they look at them in the aggregate, but the specifics are so unique to each player. Some guys will have their peak really, really young.

And this is something we talked about a lot at CBS. We were talking about like, how do you discount, like what kind of discount rate do you use? We talked about it a lot over the years when we were working together. And it's a really hard puzzle to crack. You can talk about a guy like a Juju Smith Schuster, whose peak was literally ages 21

and 22 and has never been able to get back there and that was somebody i loved when we were working together you know that yes derrick henry is interesting he had a tougher year last year but a tough uh um offensive line that he was running behind still pretty good in some of the advanced metrics and his ability to evade tackles and those things doesn't seem to have the same explosiveness the long runs that he had in his prime but he's a very unique physical player in a way that it wouldn't surprise me if he's somebody who could have a longer peak that does stretch to age 30 it didn't show massive signs of decline last year outside of the like yards per carry like the very surface level stuff does did come down but i think there's reasons to be excited about him now as far as what it means for fantasy you just talked about a lot of the issues when we get into like projections and

stuff that are going to be very valid it's a reason that i've never as much as i have a ton of respect for derrick henry the player i've never been really really high on him in fantasy relative to his various costs throughout his career because he doesn't ever really catch passes he's had a hard time with that throughout his career he's i looked at high value touches a lot when i was at cbs which is looking at receptions and then stuff at the goal line he's gotten a lot of goal line work over the years i think touchdowns is the thing that people are going to want to point to here and say maybe he could run for 20 tds with the ravens it's a great offense that's tough because lamar is going to have the ball in his hands in the red zone a decent amount as well. But big physical back, I think if you're in a standard league, even in half PPR, he's a little bit more reasonable.

But obviously, trading for a 30-year-old back in Dynasty, you want to have the cost be mitigated as well. If you can get a reasonable price from somebody who's maybe trying to sell off veterans because they're trying to rebuild or something, I can understand it. I do think he's still going to be able to carry a big workload and Baltimore kind of signifies with this signing. They've had it with the unreliable. I mean,

JK Dobbins is the other side of that age. Correct. He's still so young, but it feels like he's past his prime because of all the injuries. Unfortunately, they've had to deal with some really, a lack of reliability at running back for the last few Unfortunately, they've had to deal with some really, a lack of reliability at running back for the last few years. It feels a lot to me,

like Baltimore, very analytically focused front office that went out and paid for a running back is trying to pay for dependability to some degree and will maybe use him more than they've used other backs in their past, like really lean on him. I think that's probably the expectation. How much he still has left at age 30 is a question. It's a tricky evaluation for sure.

And that high value touch thing is a key point that you noted. He's not going to catch enough passes in PPR leagues. It's tricky. But I could see giving, you know, at the right price, being in on the workload and Baltimore being a good offense and what they are selling when they go out and sign him. I think that workload is probably the piece of the puzzle that we're just going to be guessing at until we get to September.

We talked about this before the show. We're going to talk about it again in probably 20 minutes, but the Travis Kelsey, Kansas City Chiefs situation and what Andy Reid talked about, we wanted to get this guy to the playoffs at 100%. The Ravens are a team that have eyes on playing in February. Do they think that the best way to get there is giving the 30-year-old running back 20 touches a game? They might, but I just wonder if it's another situation

where they do, they have Keaton Mitchell there, kind of it could be a similar situation to Henry and Tajay Spears last year, where Mitchell's kind of the lightning to Henry's thunder. But yeah, I think I like Henry better in best ball because I would expect he's going to have four, maybe five two-touchdown games, maybe a three-touchdown game. But the weeks that he doesn't score,

I would expect are going to be pretty mediocre at best. And then you've got that risk not just of he's 30 years old, so he might be more likely to get hurt, but also these guys, they don't always just show he's a years old so he might be more likely to get hurt but also these guys they don't always just show he's a little bit worse this year he's a little bit worse this year a lot of times they're a star running back and the next year it's like he can't get the edge he can't get through the hole it's just that step that one step can make a big difference in a hurry so there's also risk that the skills do decline. Speaking of old running backs, Derek Henry was not the only one to change teams. Aaron Jones

gets cut by the Packers. We talked about Josh Jacobs on Tuesday, but now Aaron Jones is on the Vikings. I saw a video of him on Twitter wearing a purple sombrero. I assume there's some Packers fans that that made very uncomfortable, but happy for Aaron Jones. He's been remarkable as a pass catcher. And when he's been able to stay healthy as a rusher, he wasn't very healthy last, the last two years, really like even playing through some injuries. What do you think the split looks like with him and Ty Chandler this year?

And do you have more or less hope for Jones and like a full PPR league than you would for Derek Henry? So this one for me is a little easier when you start talking about the things that you just did with older backs. I do think you want to be very concerned about it being an age cliff, not an age curve, as you were just describing, like the career can just come to an end, unfortunately, but that's the way that it works henry led the nfl in rush attempts last year he's led the nfl in rush attempts four of the last five years one of the biggest things about whether a guy can be a workhorse is have they been a workhorse recently obviously the really

high touch counts can be concerning but showing an ability to hold up to that many touches for me is actually a lot of times we talk about oh they have a lot of tread on their tires and this and that but i think it's actually indicative of a positive trait right and i agreed a dependability so that's where i was getting into a lot of the equivocation with henry as even as an older back that i think you know maybe he's still in that prime maybe he's still able to hold a lot of a lot of touches but it can fall off at any point as you noted aaron jones has shown less of an ability to do that he's shown some some wear and tear got hurt this year the efficiency was still there i still think he's a really good back but i'm inherently concerned about older backs as it is and he will be another

one that he turns 30 in december will be playing in his technically his age 30 season even though we'll be 29 for most of the year but definitely on the older side I think older than a lot of people realize still show good peripherals like I was saying for Derrick Henry but the other big issue here is Minnesota seems headed for a reset season they've gotten rid of cousins now they're kind of resetting the cap if you go look at like their odds to win division, they are very low. They're behind the Chicago Bears at this point, last of the four teams, the Lions are the favorites and then the Packers. The expectation in the marketplace and in prop betting and all of that stuff is that the Vikings are not going to be a very good team this year. I think that's fair. We don't even know who

their quarterback is going to be. They did go get Sam Darnoldold but it's not a situation that i want to be investing in an older back when i don't actually have the upside faith in the touchdown production because i don't think the offense is good enough he is going to be a better pass catcher than what henry is and he like i said still showed positive stuff in the peripherals last year still explosive when healthy but when you talk about that age cliff for older backs, I'm more concerned about what I can actually get out of Aaron Jones and sort of the cost benefit where I don't necessarily want to be in for an older Aaron Jones relative to what we were just talking about with Derek Henry.

Right. And I do think it's really interesting, like for both the Vikings and the Bears in that same division, I don't really understand why either one of them at the stage they're at wants to add Aaron Jones or DeAndre Swift. And both of those backs have been better as pass catchers than they have been as rushers. And neither of those teams really profile as a team that wants to throw to their running backs a whole lot. Like, are you going to dump the ball off to Aaron Jones when you've got Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hawkinson? It's not something they've done a whole lot. i i am more out on jones than i am

on henry i think both these guys and i've talked about this quite a bit on the show i i don't really like trading for veteran running backs now if i'm going to trade for a derrick henry or an aaron jones as a contender i'd like to do it at the trade deadline because i know the guy is still healthy and he's definitely going to be able to help me. But I understand why people are trying to sell them now. They don't want to carry that risk of them getting hurt throughout the season. So I would view this as a situation where for Jones or Henry, I'm probably not giving up. If I have to trade for them right now, like at the rookie draft, somebody's going to deal them. I'm not giving up more than a late second.

Yeah, I wouldn't either. Okay. Yeah. So I do think you're setting yourself up for a little bit of risk because if derrick henry has 12 rushing touchdowns in november and you try to go get him it's going to cost you more than a late second but i i'd rather just pay a little bit more later and then find out uh one more veteran running back who i'm maybe the least excited about i really brought you on for the exciting guys, the fantasy running backs. Austin Eckler goes to the Commanders to join Bryan Robinson.

Only got like $11 million over two years. The NFL did not seem particularly interested in Austin Eckler. Any reason that fantasy managers should feel differently? It's really tricky. This is one of the ones where this guy has been a star recently, led the NFL in overall touchdowns in both 2021 and 2022. He has one down year in 2023. Doesn't look the same.

Doesn't look as explosive. The efficiency metrics sort of show that. Doesn't catch as many passes. And now suddenly we're completely out. But, again, it gets back to that conversation of the age cliff sort of thing. He was a lot less efficient as a runner um and and also less efficient as a receiver frankly um you see that you know the total yardage over 1500 yards the two years prior he's down to like uh just over a thousand last year missed a little bit of time

and all those things but you also have the issues with a bad offense that we talked about with minnesota or the expectation of you know a rookie quarterback and not with a bad offense that we talked about with Minnesota or the expectation of, you know, a rookie quarterback and not necessarily a great offense. They've added some veterans. Maybe Washington will be a little bit interesting because of some of the moves they've made in free agency to sort of, it's very similar to what you just said about Minnesota and Chicago. It's been kind of confusing to follow, but they're like trying to be competitive, but they're not going to be a contender, but they might be a little bit more competitive by adding a lot of this veteran talent that they have. But some of these guys are going to be a contender but they might be a little bit more competitive by adding a lot of this veteran um talent that they have um but some of these guys

are going to hit age clips and then the other fact is brian robinson they like him and they've used him a good amount and you have another competent back there antonio gibson does move on but i think eckler is going to work off of robinson i think his you know his usage is going to look a lot more like when he was working off of melvin gordon than what it's been the last few years in Los Angeles where he's been the primary back. And again, in a bad offense, working with a rookie quarterback that's probably not going to move the ball. I mean, you don't necessarily want to be heavily invested in rookie quarterback offenses when he's already shown some signs of decline last year. This is what some people in the industry will call a falling falling knife you don't want to be catching falling knives when you've already seen the decline you don't want to be hoping for the bounce back love the the guy i mean he's awesome what he

does for the fantasy community and all the workout videos and how hard this guy works and how dedicated he's been to put in the career that he has but not a bet that i would be making no no i think like if i'm looking at these guys on a dynasty perspective, and hopefully they're not all on your roster, although I think Chris Sauer's actually just posted in our YOLO dynasty league, both Eckler and Henry on the block. So maybe I'll make a joint offer for the two of them. But I'd go Henry, Jones, and then Eckler in terms of my level of interest. And I'm not buying Eckler, I don't think, even for a late second.

I would deal him for a late second right now. If I can get a second-round pick, I'm happy to get off of that and just see what type of lottery dart I can throw in round two. Let's get away from these old running backs. We've got wide receiver news, and it is exciting. Calvin Ridley played the Patriots and Jags off each other and then chose the Titans. I was kind of out on Ridley

at his price last year. I thought he and Christian Kirk would kind of just chop it up pretty evenly, and they did until Kirk got hurt. But then I feel like people are maybe holding last year against Ridley too much now. I was kind of impressed with what he was able to do, especially in the second half of the season coming off of that long layoff. And now I just expect that he's going to not, he won't be the guy that he was quite in Atlanta. I don't think, but I like him as a high end number two wide receiver in Tennessee and a decent buy in dynasty right now. How do you feel about Ridley? And how do you think that dynamic works between him and Hopkins this is one where I'd probably disagree with you a little bit because I think my concern I like to look at a stat targets per route run and my concern is that his volume has early in his career now he was behind Julio

Jones his targets per out run was good but not great but he relied heavily on efficiency and then in 2020 he really had his breakout season he had the efficiency to go with a spike in the target rate and his ability to earn targets his career high yards per route run 2.44 really really strong stuff the next year also drew volume really well but the efficiency was gone that's the year where he ends up getting suspended he only runs about 200 routes and then he misses all of 2022 comes back comes back last year and the ability to draw the targets was a lot lower and the efficiency wasn't necessarily great. So now when you look at his whole sample and you look at the yards per outrun type metrics, you're looking at a guy who

has one really strong year and then a lot of other stuff that maybe says that he's not the target dominant number one that he sometimes build as so my and then again you're talking about an offense issue where he goes to tennessee i don't know how much we can buy into will levis i liked will levis's aggressiveness and his arm strength and his willingness to push it last year i didn't necessarily love his decision making and accuracy and those are the things that I think are the more important parts of being a successful NFL quarterback. So I would say that I'm a little bit pessimistic on Levis and the ability of this Tennessee offense going forward to be really successful, not one that I want to be super into. So really landing there is, it's intriguing in terms of the target ceiling

and the potential if he really can get back to this really high target rate. He's had such a unique last couple years. We're just talking about how every player's peak is different. I'm concerned about what we've seen over his whole profile where he's had the one really strong year and not sure about the other years, but I think you can definitely make a case that because of the long layoff and what you just said, he was good late in the season last year, that he's ready for sort of a second peak because he has a very

non-traditional career. It's a tricky one for me. I don't think I'm going to be super in on it, but I can understand it. I mean, he's a really hard guy to evaluate is what it comes down to. Yeah, I don't think there's an easy piece of this Titans offense. Even the Pollard Spears dynamic is going to be a bit of a question mark. We don't know exactly what Hopkins has left. And then with rookie quarterbacks,

they can make big leaps in that second year. I'm actually kind of starting to feel like I'd like to invest in will love us a little bit, just because that profile as Jameis Winston has shown, doesn't always lead to a long NFL career, but it can lead to some big fantasy spikes. If you told me Will Levis was going to rival that 5,000-yard 30-30 season from Jameis with Hopkins and Ridley, I don't find that that hard to believe. Yeah, it's possible.

I think the 30 TD part of it would be harder for me than the 30 interception part of it that's fantastic now we had some more wide receiver noobs happen last night let's save we'll save marquise brown for next let's talk about the keenan allen trade did you know 66 of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate. Don't let your project become part of this statistic. A quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime, financial penalties, and keep you safe. Don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money. Click before you dig. Ensure your next project is safe.

Visit OntarioOneCall.ca. It's free. It's easy. It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. I mean, every single thing that you could have had nightmares about as a Justin Herbert fantasy manager, when Harbaugh got the job and then named Greg Roman the offensive coordinator and then cut Williams, and now trade away Keenan Allen. Let's start here with Justin Herbert, who is still, I think most people agree, one of the most talented

passers in the NFL, but now looks to be in what I would expect to be a run-heavy offense, and we have no idea who his number one wide receiver is. Right now, it's probably Josh Palmer. How concerned are you about Herbert remaining a must-start fantasy quarterback for the foreseeable future? Extremely concerned. I mean, I think you're on red alert. My issue with the Chargers approach with Herbert for his whole career is I didn't feel like they've been getting him enough weapons. I think what we've seen from the best passing offenses and the best offenses in general and the places where quarterbacks have been able to thrive the most in the more modern, more spread NFL is a depth of playmaking players. Not just one star receiver, not necessarily just two, but three and four.

Who's your third weapon? Who's your fourth weapon? The issue for most of his career Keenan Allen's a very very good receiver Mike Williams I think is good but not great right like a downfield threat that can be efficient but also doesn't create a lot of separation you kind of have to just throw to him in tight coverage and expect him to go make some some play also has missed a lot of time and my issue with him has been or for Herbert has, they have not gotten him a number three. Year in, year out, it felt like they finally go out and draft their wide receiver in the first round last year.

And then Quentin Johnson, it looks like a pretty big bust, unfortunately. Now, both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are gone. You have an even bigger issue. Like, it's, I had an issue that they weren't getting him a third weapon. Now he doesn't have a first weapon i think josh palmer is probably just a guy um doesn't earn a ton of volume has has shown some efficiency that i would probably attribute to herbert more than palmer personally um and so you have i think major issues with the depth of the receiving weapons and then you have the massive shift to a jim harbaugh greg roman

offense that's going to be very run focused. It's clear that they are going to build that type of offense. They're making these types of moves. They're making that obvious. Herbert's a very good QB, but they're going to limit his volume. They're going to run the ball and then have him play off the run. He's mobile, but he doesn't add a ton of fantasy points on the ground you're talking about a drop back passer that's not going to have enough volume he's going to have to be

hyper efficient but he's not going to have receivers that can really help that efficiency so it's a disaster it's a disaster one guy who i do think is a bit underrated in dynasty right now um he's definitely been behind herbert in of the consensus rankings. Would you rather have right now on your dynasty roster Justin Herbert or Kyler Murray? Oh, that's tricky. Let's assume that Marvin Harrison has been selected number four overall by the Arizona Cardinals. I think I would take Kyler at that point if you can make that assumption. I'm more concerned about Kyler's longevity. I'm not confident that he's going to be a starter three years from now.

I really like him, but I don't know that the NFL – the NFL has shown us a lot of concerning signs of the way that they're evaluating mobile quarterbacks. I think Justin Fields, for example, is getting a little bit of a raw deal. I think the fact that Jalen Hurts kind of had to step back this year and some of the other mobile quarterbacks not as good in 2023 has had a league-wide impact. A lot of these teams are not as into the mobile quarterbacks going into 2024 which to me i'm reading on kyler's side especially with some of his struggles and some of his

injuries that arizona isn't going to be hyper committed to him for a long time herbert's going to be a starter for for five years so in dynasty that longevity element is obviously important but i think i would take Kyler just for, I think that the short-term point scoring in 2024, I would expect Kyler to score a lot more points this year. Yeah, I agree completely. So let's talk about the actual receiver who moved, Keenan Allen. Another guy who, all these old guys moving.

Over the hill, but didn't look like it necessarily last year. Allen's still elite at earning targets, still very good in terms of his overall fantasy production. But now he goes to the Chicago Bears, likely with Caleb Williams as a rookie quarterback, sharing the field with DJ Moore. This feels like a loss for Keenan Allen as well. I wonder if you think it's a loss for both Allen and DJ Moore, or if you think there'll be a clear number one here. I think it's, it's definitely tough.

The other guy here that I was really actually pretty excited about was Cole commit because in this offense last year with fields, taking a lot of sacks and scrambling a lot. One of the big issues with Justin Fields is not a high percentage of his dropbacks actually turn into pass attempts. There's basically three outcomes, a pass attempt, a sack or a scramble,

and he's really high in sack rate. And he's really high in scramble rate. And so he has one of the highest rates of dropbacks that don't become pass attempts. There's basically three outcomes, a pass attempt, a sack or a scramble, and he's really high in sack rate and he's really high in scramble rate. And so he has one of the highest rates of dropbacks that don't become pass attempts. And so there's a lot of empty routes that end up occurring. If you look at things like the targets per outrun, DJ Moore was lower than you would have thought for how good of a year he had. Cole Komet, surprisingly very close to DJ Moore in that metric, had a pretty good year last. Looked like an underrated breakout tight end. We know tight ends take a little longer to develop. He was a young 21 year old prospect.

And I'm like, man, when I saw the key now, I'm like, man, I can't really draft a lot of Cole commit. Now I was excited to draft some Cole commit this year. I think it's tricky with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen as well.

Cause they're both going to be fairly target dominant players. TJ Moore tweeted like a grimacingacing face like three or four grimacing faces and i it wasn't great you know it didn't seem like he was stoked about that i think he liked being the clear number one there and he's also come out in favor of keeping fields so he may be a super happy guy i don't think thrilled about all this caleb williams should mean more pass attempts which i wouldn't typically say for a rookie, but because of the issues I was just saying about fields and their dropback rate and all that,

they should turn more dropbacks into passes with Caleb Williams. There's the potential that he's very good right away. Like if you think about like a C.J. Stroud type outcome, that could elevate Keenan and D.J. Moore and maybe Cole Komet. That could be good for everybody. But it's tricky. It's a downgrade for Keenan Allen versus Moore and maybe Cole Komet. That could be good for everybody. But it's tricky. It's a downgrade for Keenan Allen versus 2023's atmosphere. I don't know if it's a downgrade versus what we were headed for with Harbaugh

in the Chargers. It really reminded me of Deontay Johnson where I thought Russell Wilson was a tough fit and then he got traded and I was like, well, it's not necessarily an upgrade, but it's probably maybe better than what he was going to have in 2024, but not in 2023 because there had already been a big shift to what his offense looked like. It's weird.

Keenan's value has shifted multiple times now. It's definitely a downgrade from 2023, Keenan Allen. I'll say that. Yeah, and I think I still, like if I had to bet, I think I'd still bet on DJ Moore being the best of those two just because I'd rather bet on the guy in his 20s than the guy in his 30s. But it's probably a downgrade for both of those guys. Let's talk about the Chiefs news now. Marquise Brown, I wake up this morning to see, I don't know how, Darnell Mooney is signing a three-year $39 million deal and Marquise Brown goes one year for $7 million, maybe up to $11 million if he's really good.

But he's now on the Chiefs. So that worked out okay. He will take over the MVS role plus, I would say. But I think for me, one of the most difficult things is I hear this news. I go to the Chiefs projections. I start working on target share. Last year, we basically had Travissey for the season around 21 percent brishy rice at 17 percent and then everybody else below that in the second half of the season it was

actually rice at 25 kelsey at 20 percent and then the playoffs they were both 22 to 24 is there you think there's room here for Brown to matter in fantasy football without negatively impacting Rice or Kelsey too much? I think so, and I would point to their ADOTs, their average depth of target. Kelsey's has come down. He used to be more of a vertical tight end. He's mostly like a middle-of-the-field type traditional tight end. It was actually last year at 6.9, a little bit below the average

for tight ends for most of his prime. He was a couple yards deeper on his average target than the traditional tight end because of his athleticism and his ability down the field. So he's an underneath guy. And then Rasheed Rice's ADOT was really low. It was 5.2. Yeah. A lot of stuff underneath, but he was still really efficient there. Really high catch rate, which is correlated with a lower a dot they're shorter passes easier to catch added a lot of uh yak yards after the

catch and so he was very efficient for that low a dot those two guys seem to kind of have it locked down underneath i was actually kind of concerned about you know do they have enough of a threat down the field and i think marquise brown is a really nice fit in that regard i i'm i'm interested in him obviously because the efficiency should spike when you're playing with patrick mahomes and in this offense i would be a little bit concerned about the overall volume and how much they'll actually be able to threaten down the field because of the way that defenses have played mahomes the last couple years and just sat in those cover two shells and put more dbs on the field which is why you see the target dominant underneath guys last year.

And Mahomes Adot as a passer coming way down, and it's all going to Kelsey and Rice underneath. But it's really, really interesting. I just want to say I'm very high on Rasheed Rice. I mean, he was really good as a rookie. Didn't break 80% routes in a game until week 14. The last four games from that point on and then the four playoff games his routes were a lot more consistent and they were really his production was a lot

stronger if you if he's and you just talked about this it was a lot better when you when you really and you talked about his target share but if you look at it per route as well he was good per route early in the year but then was not just getting enough routes. And it was really weird. We talked to Gibbs about this a lot during the year last year, how it almost seemed like the chiefs were cheating the per route numbers because they only played certain guys when they were planning on throwing it to them. And so we had several guys that were, but then the nice thing was, as you said, he became a full-time player in the second half, the last quarter of the season and the per route numbers didn't get hurt all that much. He just continued to be really good. I've talked about

this a lot. It's been difficult for rookie or first-year wide receivers in that Andy Reid system to really come in and make an impact. It didn't quite take him the whole season to figure it out. It seems like it took him about two or three months, and then we got to the point to where Mahomes and Reid started to trust him enough. I've been probably too high on Rice in terms of what he could be in 2024. I've got him as a mid-range dynasty-wide receiver too, but I think he could be a high-end number two for this year. Brown, I almost think, just helps because of what you said. He makes it really difficult for teams to take away those underneath throws

because you'd much rather have Rasheed Rice catch the ball five yards from the line of scrimmage than Marquise Brown 20 yards from the line of scrimmage. Right. And Andy Redazar talked about they intentionally limited Travis Kelsey's routes a little bit this year. He had 513 routes his first year under 550 since 2017. I mean, he had been a 600- guy the last two years. So about 100 routes fewer for him last year. And that was intentional to save him for the postseason to

some degree as he's getting into his mid thirties. Rice only had 392 routes. I love your point about how they sort of cheated the per route numbers a little bit by using these guys situationally, but we know he's going to add at least 100 routes probably closer to 200 routes he's at about 400 he'll probably push in year two up around 600 routes the way that they leaned on him into the postseason and i mean patrick mahomes has been looking for reliable receivers for basically since tyree kill left right somebody to pair with Travis Kelsey. It looked for all the world like Rasheed Rice was that guy finally, somebody he felt he could rely on and

would throw the ball to whenever he was out there, whether it was at a small route rate or a big route rate, he was going to get targets. And now I think Marquise Brown can be that type of player for him as well. You're actually talking about multiple weapons. The Chiefs are the fun team where they didn't have that depth to their number three or number four weapon that I was just talking about multiple weapons the chiefs are the fun team where they didn't have that depth to their number three or number four weapon that i was just talking about but you have patrick mahomes so you can still be a good passing offense but now you actually have probably three good weapons but with kelsey's routes being limited a little bit rice's are going to rise but there is room i completely agree with you i think marquise brown just helps and having three good receivers

isn't too crowded and the rest of the names, Sky Moore and all of those guys just weren't good enough and haven't been good enough and aren't going to be a threat. I think there's plenty of mouths to feed for all three of these guys who on an offense that is consistently high in pass rate, their pass rate over expected one of the highest in the NFL. They're going to throw, they trust Patrick Mahomes. There's going to be attempts all around. These three guys can all get theirs, especially as Kelsey gets kind of scaled back a little bit on the route side. Maybe it stinks a little bit for Xavier Worthy or Troy Franklin. I think I just saw those guys mocked over and over.

The Kansas City Chiefs might be less likely now. I do, from a dynasty perspective, and there's one more interesting part about this for Marquise Brown, because he's still, what, 26 years old. Still young, still has some potential long-term upside but also on a one-year contract which i think is going to make people a little bit nervous do you think do you lean more towards this is an opportunity for him to have a good year with mahomes and then sign a multi-year deal or this is a one-year deal kind of like jujus and and this

might be his last gasp for dynasty value. So I'm distracted by the chat saying that Aaron Donald just retired as we're recording. But you were saying this might be Marquise Brown's last gasp on the one-year deal? No, I'm saying he's young enough from a dynasty perspective where I think his age should really be a benefit. But he's also on a one-year contract with the chiefs. If things don't go well this year, I is, is there still hope for, so I guess, are you more concerned about the risk of being on a one-year contract or the upside of his age and what he could do to his own value with one year with the homes? I would, I would say I'm more interested in the upside for him.

He's still young enough. I think he's shown enough in the peripherals and the per route stuff in some tough situations over the years had some flashes in Arizona. He's done enough that I mean, yes, if he's not good with the Chiefs, like that's going to be bad. But I fully expect him to be at a certain level of competency because the target competition isn't that high. I mean, we just got done talking really favorably about Rice, but we know Kelsey is going to be scaled back to some degree. And so there's not enough target competition there for him to not have at least some floor production. We talked about Juju earlier in the show.

Even Juju had a floor of production in this offense, and he hasn't looked great otherwise in these last several years of his career. And so I would expect that there's more ceiling for him. Although if he has a great year, the chiefs probably don't sign him they've shown an unwillingness with with mahomes cap hit to pay for the receivers because he can elevate right and so you pay for your defense and you pay for your offensive line and you pay for other positions and you let him elevate even bad receivers at times um and so i wouldn't necessarily expect them to sign him to some big deal if he has a great year. So this probably is the one year you get from him with Mahomes unless it's just like average

and then they get him for another cheaper, longer deal. But it does feel like a little bit like a one-year deal to rehabilitate his value and then sign a big deal somewhere else next year. So that's a little bit of a concern for sure. But I think I'm more optimistic about how that value could rehabilitate. And then next year he does get a big deal. And then, you know, maybe think about trading him at that point. Yeah, I think that's the right way to approach it. And we'll see, see where his dynasty value lands in the next couple of weeks. But I think it's probably somewhere in round two with those

running backs. If I was guessing, I can't imagine anybody's going to get a first round pick for him. There's one more guy that changed teams that honestly, if I was doing this show by myself, I probably wouldn't have talked about too much because I've never really been the Curtis Samuel guy, but I think I remember that you might've been a Curtis Samuel guy from a while ago. So he is joining the bills. I saw that Matt Harmon had tweeted something about how this is an upgrade over Gabe Davis. He's I think Harmon's been a Curtis Daniel guy as well. Do you think he could actually matter for fantasy football? And do you think he helps Josh Allen?

I think he could. And I think he does. Yeah. I mean, I have been somewhat favorable about Samuel over the last few years. Really, again, the targets per outrun stat, I'll go back to. Really interesting thing. He actually led Washington in targets per run last year. johan dotson had a very tough year but same it was also out ahead of terry mclaurin he just only ran 400 routes he's probably more like a 400 route guy at the stage

of his career than a 600 route guy which is more like the the really high end we were just talking about that number with regards to you know how kelsey has come back a little bit i don't think he'll be an every down player for the bills but if but if he plays a lot in the slot, which he's been a 70% slot rate guy the last couple of years, you have that potential for sort of Cole Beasley value, I think. It pushes, I think, Khalil Shakir into more of the Gabe Davis role, more of the vertical downfield role, which he's had high ADOTs at times, and it had like a lower target rate and more efficiency per target, which is very similar to what Gabe Davis does. I think Samuel could end up being a really kind of interesting piece here in the ways that Cole Beasley was in his best time with Buffalo, behind Diggs, probably still behind Dalton Kincaid, but I think he can threaten with

Kincaid a little bit for sort of second on the team in targets at times. And so I'm, I'm definitely intrigued by him as a late round wide receiver going into this year. This would be a ding for you to Shakir's value, probably not impacting Kincaid's actual projection or value, but he might just push him where you put it. Exactly. Yep. Let's take one more break and then we're going to get into a little bit of rookie talk and at least one of your emails. Okay. So I did want to talk, I mean then we're going to get into a little bit of rookie talk and at least one of your emails. Okay, so I did want to talk. I mean, we're at that time of year where you're on a Dynasty show. You've got to talk about rookie evaluation at least a little bit.

I don't know how specific we really need to get into individual players. We've done a lot about that. But I do just kind of wonder, like, can you give a little bit of what is your strategy for evaluating rookies? Yeah, I mean, it's going to be a little bit different per position. I'm a lot more interested in fit and athleticism at the running back position, which I would define as more opportunity-based. I look a lot more at the combine numbers. I still want a little bit of size in my running backs. It's been an intriguing element of the way that the NFL has moved that we've had a lot of smaller players. I think at receiver, it makes sense where you don't have the defensive holding and the illegal contact stuff. It was just

a decade ago in 2014. I know we talked about this a lot when I was at CBS just a few years back, but they changed that to really emphasize illegal holding and excuse me, illegal contact and defensive holding, which allowed guys to run freely more in the secondary, which has led to smaller receivers that they don't have to hand fight as much. We're seeing smaller running backs as well as we get into more spread offenses, but those running backs have to take a lot of hits. They still have to get tackled a lot. They still have to be able and NFL bodiesfl bodies are bigger and stronger and faster on in the front seven as well and um there's some some of the smaller backs that that was a concern about this year were very good but there was also injuries for them i will point to we talked about keaton mitchell a little bit earlier he gets hurt multiple times this year devon achan was fantastic

and then got banged up kyron william fantastic. One of the most important players in fantasy. Did spend some time on IR during the season. All of those guys, there was size concerns coming into the year. I think it's a low-key element of the season that there were some injuries with these smaller backs. They also show you the upside of the athleticism and those things. But I do tend to lean a little bit more towards size at running back and then pass catching.

We were talking about the high value touch stuff. I want a bigger back that can catch passes and do it all. I'm still looking for that three down back, Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson mold. Christian McCaffrey isn't quite that big, but you want that player that can give you the touches in all the different ways that generate the most fantasy points. And so that's my evaluation process, I think, at running back. At receiver, it's more of,, I think a skill-based thing. I'm less interested in the fit and the situation right away. I'm more interested in what have they been able to do in college production

wise, like we were talking about. I'd still look at the production for running backs. We talked about the workhorse stuff. I want guys that have gotten a lot of work in college too. That would have been another thing I'd mentioned for running backs. But at receiver and also at tight end, I want to see an ability to earn volume, to produce all of those things, especially at receiver. They're going to get the routes. We know they're going to get the routes relative to tight end where some of those guys will end up pass blocking a lot. But receiver position, they're going to run around on almost every pass.

And so it's a question of can they separate? Can they earn volume? And then what do they do when they earn the volume do they add stuff after the catch can they break tackles are they physical um that's for me wide receivers way more position of skill and then yeah tight end sort of in between you want some of the athleticism you want to be able to project them into a receiving role at the nfl level because they're they're used so differently offense to offense so it is also fit, but you want to see some receiving production. You want to see a little bit of

both at tight end for me. So that's kind of the way I go through the different positions. Quarterback's the hardest one. It's the hardest one to evaluate. It's the hardest one to evaluate. What is that? Right. Yeah, that's exactly right. Because they don't evaluate it particularly well either. But for the most part, if they're going to draft him in the top 10, then I'm going to be like, all right, they know what they're talking about they've gotten to meet with these guys they've got to talk with them they they have but they mess things up i mean bryce young went one last year and cj shroud went too and that for for me part of that right when i saw that i was saying well okay we probably should bump up bryce young i'm probably a little higher

on bryce young than cj shroud right now and that obviously proved to be faulty. So I'm, I'm very open to adjusting my opinions on QBs. I'll say once we get to see them in the games, it's hard to evaluate them before, but, uh, you know, yeah, follow what the NFL says, look for some mobility. Some accuracy is a big one. Look for some of those traits. So I know you said you're early in the process and I always say I'm early in the process until Weidman Waldman's guide comes, and then I start to feel more prepared. But is there anybody early in the process that you think you're going to like more or less than how you see the consensus talking about them? Do you have any of my guys yet? It's a deep class at receiver.

I haven't dug into all the profiles enough to be like, yeah, this is going to be my guy there. I think the NFL told us in free agency that they don't like the running back class as much, and it is a little tricky there as well because I haven't dug in, frankly. I'll say Roma Dunze, people watching on YouTube will see my husky helmet in the background. I'm a UW alum. I think Roma Dunze is going to be a very good NFL receiver. He, for lack of a better term has that dog in him we saw it at the combine where he stayed after for the the extra drills and some people said that was a little performative that's what you got out of a dunza as a fan all throughout college watching all his plays like that didn't surprise me i think that was more

genuine than people understand he has everything he has size he had incredible athleticism he actually shocked me with how well he tested at the combine but it makes sense for how good he was but he's also very dependable in his route running in his hands contested catches we would throw wide receiver screens to him and he would get yards after the catch which i love to see there's a very deep profile i've heard heard of Michael Crabtree comp, which from a size and production standpoint, I think makes a lot of sense as sort of a good comp. But I mean,

I, for me, comps are more stylistic and I think that's a good fit. I think he could have a better career or what the perception of Michael Crabtree's career probably is. I think he could be a little bit better than that. Frankly, his stats is, is high a dotdot, his contested catch rate,

his ability to win down the field, which is a lot about our offense. But they are more reminiscent of like a Mike Evans perhaps, which is somebody who obviously is tough to comp to because he's been so – like talk about a length of a peak. This guy's peak has been so massive. They're asking a Dunze or Neighbors. Neighbors is a really strong prospect as well. What I would say, I'm high enough on Adunze that I think that should be close, very close. And a lot of people have Neighbors in a tier with

Marvin Harrison and Adunze a tier behind, and I think that's wrong. I think Adunze is good enough to be in the discussion with Neighbors, absolutely. I just wonder, is there any hope, and it doesn't seem likely with the way the charters have behaved so far, but like they could have their choice of those two guys, most likely neighbors or didn't say, and I assume there's going to draft an offensive lineman so they can or Blake Coram, who they take in round two,

but no, either one of those guys hooked up with Justin Herbert as the obvious number one wide receiver for him would be a spectacular situation. It would be, even though we talked about the volume concerns and everything. You get tied to a really good quarterback like that and you don't have much target competition for a rookie right away. I mean, that would be fantastic. You talked about it with running backs. There may not be a more important thing than their fit with the team and, and how early they're drafted.

Now we, we always put the Clyde Edwards, Hilaire asterisk on that, but it's mostly true. If not always, who do you think that the three best landing spots for a rookie running back are now that we've kind of gone through this free agency and several teams have filled their holes?

That's a good question. I, I Dallas is certainly there because you have uh obviously tony pollard leaving and you have no one i mean it's rico dowdle right now and so i think that's like the pretty clear and obvious number one um i'll say i mean i think the chargers is an obvious fit as well they go and get gus edwards who's very familiar with greg roman's um system but they're gonna run a ton edwards is getting older he's gonna be fine but he has limitations he's not gonna catch a lot of passes whoever lands there is probably going to have a solid role in the in the receiving element of it and as more of like a

outside zone runner where like edwards is more of you're in between the tackles straight up the up the middle guy third one i guess i'll say uh maybe the raiders because you know josh jacobs it's vacated volume in all these spots right but you have josh jacobs leaving and you have no real obvious replacement they seem to really like zamir white but i think that's a really good landing spot as well yeah my expectation mostly is if the chargers draft one of the top five running backs in this class, that guy's probably going to end up leading the team in touches, and Gus Edwards is going to be the hammer.

Maybe steal some touchdowns and limits their overall fantasy value. More of the Chargers might decide they're going to go with Gus Edwards as a lead back for a season and just draft back on day three to compliment him. But that would probably be my favorite and then the dallas for the second for sure i've got too many uh dynasty teams with zamir white hanging out on the bench for me to say that the raiders are the third best option let's not do that what would be your third best um no i think that's probably the right answer yeah maybe maybe jonathan brooks to arizona okay like everybody's kind of talking about how he needs a red shirt season. Anyway,

I think he might just need a red shirt month. And I think he's the best running back in the class when he's healthy. So you go sit behind James Connor, James Connor is going to miss six to eight games at some point this year. And then you take over as the clear number one next year. I think that's a really good one. I was also thinking maybe Miami, because I think a chance really,

really good, but that they might still always want to use him with someone else and most it's pretty old if you can get basically some of that most work wrestled away if most are jeff wilson are both you know a little bit older and you're in a committee with a chan in a good offense and efficient offense that that might be a good fit too and then i think we have to see like are the panthers happy with miles sanders and chuba hubbard or is d Or does Dave Kanellis want somebody else to catch 80 passes for him? Yeah, that would be nice. Or the Tampa Bay and Buffalo, are they satisfied with the running back play they're getting?

But those probably turn into committees, so I wouldn't be that excited in the first place. We do have one email from a name that I, you know who you are. So this guy went full productive struggle in his startup draft last year. And I mean, he leaned into the struggle part, 14 teams, super flex with a tight end premium. He has very few good players. He listed them. JSN, Bryce Young, Trey Palmer, Quentin Johnston, Zamir White, everyone else is droppable. I have the following, 101, 104, 105, 107, 108, 112, and four 2025 firsts. He's kind of wondering what advice we have for how to approach all of these picks on a roster that's probably not going to win. Are you trying to trade for future picks to diversify or just make or trade even for

young players that are already in the league yeah i mean i this is um is actually a really fun situation to be in i love it yeah you get to dominate the rookie draft you every time i mean you're going to be on the clock more than anyone else. It's not like you should just sit there, but everyone who wants to get some type of pick has to go through you. I would be inclined to use a good chunk of these picks because you don't have a lot of players and you do already have a lot of the 2025 capital coming next year. And I do think in Dynasty, people think it's, you know, I draft a rookie and it's three years away. But again again we're just talking about how much changes in just a year two years three years

that rookies can be massive hits immediately i have a dynasty league where i had uh cj stroud sam laporta rishi rice jordan addison and jane reed all in the same class it's the best i've ever done from a from a rookie group but all of them hit in such a way that they were all – it was a best ball league, but they were all hitting my lineup basically every week. I mean, not maybe every single week, but they're good. And then their values rose a ton. And going into year two, I'm like expecting all of them to be very strong.

They all have good redraft ADPs going into year two. It's not – when you hit, it's not like a five-year wait period on these rookies. You can contend quickly. And with this many picks, I think you have a really good possibility. You also, I mean, he had so many picks, it was hard to read them all, but he also mentioned that he has the 201, the 202, the 206, in super flex and tight end premium. It's a 14 team league, but those are going to be very valuable picks as well. I would probably try to trade back in some cases when people want to come up

because I have so many picks and I'm already going to get a lot of bites at that Apple. So being willing to move around to get future pick value, like you said, I want to have a come out of this rookie draft with at least a half dozen, maybe closer to 10 new rookies, but also if I can push some of that value to 2025, like you talked about, so I can do the same thing next year. And it's, you know, I might be able to compete a little bit with this young team in 2024, but realistically I'm looking at 2025, 2026, but I'm not looking at 2029 like i don't think

you have to look that far i think you can you can take these picks and you can be like look i'm going to build a really good young core quickly at the same time if people are giving you really good values on on veterans to come into some of these picks i'd be willing to listen but i'd be less inclined i would want probably my core to be aging at the same time and taking a lot of rookies and really trying to build this up, pushing more value into 2025, being patient, getting really young. In a couple of years, you could just absolutely dominate this league. Oh, yeah.

I think looking at this, I probably am making my first three picks. I think I'm starting my draft with Caleb and then two out of three of Harrison, Nabors, and Ndunze. And then I'm open for business. Like, this seven, eight pick, does somebody really love Brock Bauer? Does somebody really love whoever turns into wide receiver four?

Does somebody really love J.J. McCarthy? Like, then I might start moving around a little bit. I would probably be trying to package maybe a couple of those second rounders to see if I could get, especially if you can find players who have been drafted the last two years that you still believe in that maybe their values fall on a little bit. Guys who were first round, like if you love Zach Charbonnet, that might be a place where you could go in and get a player like that

who's seen his value. Maybe you can get Javante Williams for 201 or something like that but I would be looking more towards wide receivers and quarterbacks but I wouldn't I wouldn't hesitate like you said to come out of this class with 10 rookies at least yeah yeah yeah I mean I and I think um you could you could like I would just say I agree with everything you said, but even like the 201, I would maybe be trying to find this year's Zach Charbonnet. You know what I mean? Like that second – that next tier of rookies, take some stabs at that too because if you hit on a really good landing spot, a good fit,

some of the – the rookie drafts are not inherently efficient. Some of the best hits sometimes come from 201 and 202. That's true. You're in a very enviable position. That's for sure. And enjoy. That's the thing you have to figure out. I enjoy the teardown and the rebuild process.

I've come to realize more than a lot of people who play Dynasty do. And now that you get to find out if you enjoy it as much as we do, I know you like it as well, Ben. I think it's one of the more fun parts, like first or last. But there are people who really are much more comfortable just hanging out fifth through seventh, and let's hope we make a run one of those years in the playoffs. If that's the way you like to play, that's okay as well.

Ben, tell everybody once more where they can find your Substack, your podcast, everything you got going on. Yeah. Stealing signals, sub stack newsletter, premium newsletter. We mentioned at the top is that Ben Gretsch dot sub stack.com. I do the stealing bananas podcast with Sean Siegel,

who I mentioned earlier, great prospect guy. We did some, some episodes this week on free agency, really dug into those. And then a ship chasing with Pat Crane and Peter over set on Thursday nights is another podcast that I do. It's kind of a live stream evening show.

Sometimes we, you know, have a few beers, which we know he likes his likes to have his beer. So yeah, that's where you can find me. All right. Well,

thank you very much for being here. We're not going to wait this long to talk on a podcast. Again, I will force my way in next time. Either tells me that you're going to be on the show, but we'll just talk again here without him. Thank you for everybody who followed along here on YouTube and in the chat. Thanks for everybody who's listening to the podcast. Just a programming note on Tuesday, next week, we will have Matt Cooper from couch scouts on Friday. We will not have a show. I'm going to be out of town. So we

will talk to you again the following Tuesday.