Fantasy Football Today - Dynasty Fantasy Football 1-QB Startup Mock Draft (FFT Dynasty) | 2025 Strategy & Tips (05/09 Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 Why do fintechs like Float choose Visa? As a more trusted, more secure payments network, Visa provides scale, expertise, and innovative payment solutions. Learn more at visa.ca slash fintech. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. My name is Heath Cummings. I am your host. Today we have a one qb startup mock draft for you we also have Matt Cooper from Couch Scouts fantasy football back on the show

Starting point is 00:00:33 Matt you've made your first pick thank you for being here yeah absolutely I'm very glad to be here and um you know it's funny people have asked me before how do I keep getting on FFT and I'm just like I don't know I just keep saying if FFT? And I'm just like, I don't know. I just keep saying, if you need any guests, I'm here. And for some reason you keep saying yes. Well, listen, this is not an open invite to just anybody. We appreciate your insights. You definitely know ball.

Starting point is 00:00:59 And so that's one of the prerequisites. Then also appreciate that, man. You can talk and you come on here and we don't have to use the seven second delay. And so that's another benefit in your favor. But today, like I said, we're doing a one QB startup. One of the things you said to me when I asked you, I don't know the last time I did a one QB startup.

Starting point is 00:01:20 And that is the general consensus I think in the industry is that all dynasty leagues are super flex leagues. It's simply not true. I think the majority of new leagues now are super flex leagues, but there's still some one quarterback leagues being started. Probably more common outside of the industry than it is inside of the industry. Looks like we got a Joel Cox needing the reset on the timer here. I'm going to send him a text.

Starting point is 00:01:46 We start this mock with Jamar chase, Justin Jefferson and B John Robinson. Would that be your top three in this format? Matt? Yeah, it would. Um, and probably in that order, I think, you know, you can have a healthy debate between chase and Jefferson, but those feel like definitely one, two for me. And then I do have Bichon third. I think it gets interesting because, and we've talked about this for a lot of years.

Starting point is 00:02:17 In dynasty, we value wide receivers much more than running backs because wide receivers have such longer careers than running backs. We've used them as safer. Did that change at all for you in the last 12 months with 2024 being the year of the running back and in particular the year of the older running back? I would say I love the longevity that you get at the wide receiver position. Like if I'm picking this high in a startup, um, you know, obviously Bichon you hope for a few more good years. I think that's, you know, four to five good, good years left from Bichon at least. So he's not a bad pick at all, but Justin Jefferson, you could get 10,

Starting point is 00:03:01 you know, chase, you could get 10. And I think that's, that's where for me, those guys become the clear one and two because they're also such difference makers at the position and you know, they're putting up so many points as well as, as having that longevity for you. So I actually have Bijan at six and I going to tell you that one of the guys that I have ahead of them that hasn't been drafted yet is going to be drafted next. Joel Cox going to take Malik neighbors here with the fourth pick.

Starting point is 00:03:34 And I think that there is a good reason for a healthy debate between neighbors, CD Lamb, Pukka Nakua, maybe even Brian Thomas Jr. Who is your wide receiver three in this format? Yeah, so for me, my third is also Neighbors. I think just what he did last year as a rookie and how young he still is at 21 years old, it's hard to argue with because he gave you incredible production.

Starting point is 00:04:04 He's super young. Um, he did it with basically nobody at quarterback. And so, you know, if he can do it in that situation, he can do it in any situation. It feels like he feels super safe. Uh, really, really talented. You know, it's not like he's some guy that came out of nowhere. Like we knew he was an elite prospect. He got the high first round draft capital and then he performed the way he did.

Starting point is 00:04:30 So yeah, neighbors for me would be my wide receiver three. And CD lamb is the sixth pick of the draft. We actually had Nicholas, one of our listeners, and we have several listeners in this draft. I was telling Matt before the show, I like to mix this up between the analysts and the listeners, because when it's all analysts and we do 10 drafts to go over the summer and they all end up looking the same, and that's not particularly fun or helpful to anyone. So Jameer Gibbs goes fifth, followed by C.D. Lam at sixth, then Brian Thomas Jr. and Ashton Gentey, our first rookie at the eighth pick overall. Is he a sure fire first rounder in this format?

Starting point is 00:05:12 Yeah, I think so. I've got him at ninth in my rankings. So, you know, very close to where he just was taken. I think he's such an elite prospect. The tape is so fun to watch, reminded me of like a young Marshawn Lynch and he lands with the Raiders. He got the elite draft capital where they basically have, like the running back position when they're taking that high,

Starting point is 00:05:38 their rookie salary automatically already makes them one of the highest paid running backs in the league. So you just don't take running backs that high unless you plan to make them a bell cow. And the Raiders don't have anything at running back anyway. So I think it's just all around a smash situation for him. And it's hard to imagine a world where he doesn't succeed. And as much as I said, longevity for wide receiver is really nice.

Starting point is 00:06:03 The running back position is also a lot more scarce. It's easier to find a wide receiver later in a draft than it is to find an elite running back. Yeah. It's a, it's an interesting time at running back. Once you get past the top, probably 12 now, and it was probably nine before the rookie draft where there's a lot of options of guys that if things go right, they might be RB twos. before the rookie draft where there's a lot of options of guys that if things go

Starting point is 00:06:25 right they might be RB twos. There are very few that we view as guys that might be RB ones. There's somebody who's not been taken through the first 11 picks now of this mock that I have as a first rounder and we can talk about him more when he gets picked but how high would you put Brock Bowers in this format? Full PPR, one QB. Yeah. Well, he's the reason I had Gentie at eight, at nine instead of eight, because I had Brock Bowers ranked one spot ahead of him. So yeah, I really, I think he's going to be a value for whoever takes him here.

Starting point is 00:07:01 When I put together, and I'm working on the trade chart, I know some of you haven't seen an update in the trade chart for a little while, I'm trying to get it right. But the first run that I did putting it together actually had powers of two, and I said, no, that's too high. But it is like you look at a rookie tight end who dominated targets so thoroughly in his first season, and probably has the same length of production as some of these wide receivers that we're drafting in round one and definitely has the Travis Kelsey type upside. Is there an argument for Bowers even higher? I think there is. Again, like the scarcity of the position, like I just

Starting point is 00:07:45 said about running back, it's maybe even more true, probably even more true of tight end, right outside of like two or three guys, the production drop off is pretty steep. So to get one of those two or three guys, you know, again, like we have neighbors, lamb, Amon Ra, Puka, you know, arguably Brian Thomas all in a tier. Brock Bowers is just Brock Bowers, right? So I definitely think if you were making an argument for him to go higher, that would be the argument. We have finished round one of our one quarterback PPR mock draft.

Starting point is 00:08:22 Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, Bijan Robinson, Malik neighbors, Jamir Gibbs, C.D. Lamb, Brian Thomas, Ashton Genti, Munro St. Brown. So that's Chase Jefferson Robinson, neighbors, Gibbs, Lamb, Thomas Genti, St. Brown, Nakua Collins, London. What are your thoughts with Monroe St. Brown going ninth in this mock draft? Ben Johnson, I hear a lot of people really excited about what Ben Johnson's going to do for the Bears, understandably. I hear almost nobody concerned about some sort of drop off for the Lions without Ben Johnson. Yeah, I think that's a really fair point. I don't hear anybody talking about that either.

Starting point is 00:09:08 And I don't know if you just assume that they've internalized everything that Ben Johnson taught them over the last few years. And so they're just gonna keep doing what they've been doing. And I kind of get that. I'm on Ross St. Brown's in elite player though. And he took a little bit of a step back with the resurgence of, of

Starting point is 00:09:29 Jameson Williams last year and, you know, just between him and Laporta and Gibbs. There's only so many targets to go around, but I think I'm on raw is still just, he's an elite, elite wide receiver, gets open hogs, targets yards after catch. You know, he's good in the red zone, scores touchdowns. So I don't have a problem. I can't fault somebody for taking him at nine. Yeah, I've got him just a little bit lower than that. I think I've got him at 13 or 12 in my one QB rankings.

Starting point is 00:10:03 He's still just 25 years old. So it's really just the question is, is he going to give you a top five season or are you just getting low end wide receiver one production for the next five years? Which is pretty fantastic. We are going right through round two quickly already to pick 20. And I want to hit on one because you mentioned Brock Bowers being in a tier of his own. He went 14th in this mock draft. We saw four picks later Trey McBride goes 18th overall. I think we think that Bowers fell maybe a little bit further than he should, but I'm not so sure that McBride, well, he may be not in the same tier as Bowers. He's probably for me closer to Bowers than anyone else is to Trey McBride, well, he may be not in the same tier as Bowers. He's probably, for

Starting point is 00:10:45 me, closer to Bowers than anyone else is to Trey McBride. Are you okay with him in round two of a startup? Yeah. I mean, I think obviously he's not coming off of a rookie year and super young and all that kind of stuff, but he is still young. I mean, he's not Brock Bowers young, but he's young. And if I'm not mistaken, I think on a per game basis, he actually out-produced Bowers last year and that was with him scoring almost no touchdowns. He seems due for some positive touchdown regressions. So like, if you told me, you know, Trey McBride finishes Titan

Starting point is 00:11:21 one in fantasy this year, I'm not shocked by that. So, yeah, I think, you know, I said Bowers is the same tier. You could make a strong argument to make McBride belongs in that tier. I have no problem with him in the second round, for sure. Looks like you're on the clock with only about 20 seconds left. So, OK, once again, did a bad job of setting the guest up. I'll give you a reset on your time and we'll take our first break before we wrap up round two.

Starting point is 00:11:52 So Matt takes Garrett Wilson with pick two 11. I'm going to take Rashi rice with pick two 12. And then I'm going to tell you, I put a Twitter poll out, 212. And then I'm going to tell you, I put a Twitter poll out, because I'd sent this offer to somebody else, actually. And I asked them for Rice and a 2026 second for Garrett Wilson. Consensus rankings have Wilson a few spots ahead of Rice. I realized the other day that I'm a little lower than Consensus on on rice and he is my most rostered starting wide receiver in dynasty. So like, you know, I probably ought to move off of at least one share of Garrett Wilson. And I got declined and I put the offer up on Twitter and it was about two thirds in favor of the rice side.

Starting point is 00:12:38 And some people even saying I would take rice over Wilson. How would you compare the values of those two players? Uh, I do think they belong in the same tier. Like when you look at the production that Rice was giving you before the injury last year, it was phenomenal at his age. He was on track to be like high end dynasty wide receiver one kind of territory. Excuse me. And I think the only reason, you know, obviously you have the significant knee injury and the suspension still looming over his head, which are probably the two reasons why Garrett Wilson feels a little safer.

Starting point is 00:13:15 But you could definitely argue that Rice has more upside given what he showed at the beginning of last season. And then obviously since the injury to Rice, Worthy broke out. So, you know, interesting to see when they're both back on the field healthy, how does that target pecking order come out and, you know, is Rice producing still at the level that he was pre-injury? Does he look like he's, you know, lost any of his explosiveness? So all things to keep an eye on. But I think all those are the reasons why

Starting point is 00:13:46 I would take Garrett Wilson first and why I did in this case take Garrett Wilson first. I know the quarterback situation's not ideal but Fields has produced, you know, high-end fantasy wide receivers before. And Garrett Wilson, I just think from a talent perspective, he's such a stud, 24 years old. Yep, you are back on the clock, Matt.

Starting point is 00:14:05 And that is a good time for me to recap round two. We have T Higgins at pick 13, followed by Brock Bowers, Lad McConkey, Marvin Harrison Jr. Jackson Smith and Jigba, Trey McBride, AJ Brown, Saquon Barkley, Devon Achan, Travis Hunter, Garrett Wilson, and Rushie Rice. Again, that's Higgins, Bowers, McConkie, Harrison, JSN, McBride, Brown, Barkley, Achan, Hunter, Wilson, Rice. And I will tell you, I was, I was already, I think somebody's complaining in the chat that I stole Jaden Daniels to start round three. And I'll just say, I was all ready to take Travis Hunter

Starting point is 00:14:49 at the two, three turn, and he went two picks before me. Do you agree with Hunter over both Wilson and Rice? It's really close for me. I've got Hunter just a few picks lower. I think I've got Wilson at 16 and Hunter at 19 with McBride and McConkey in between who were already taken. So yeah, they're basically, he and Wilson for me are neck and neck. Again, Wilson feels safer. Hunter feels like he has more upside.

Starting point is 00:15:16 I took Daniels to start round three. You followed that up by taking Josh Allen right after that. Three picks later, somebody else takes Lamar Jackson. So I think it's fair to say a quarterback run early in round three, even in a one quarterback league. And I think that fits, especially in CBS, where passing touchdowns are worth six points, not four or five at some other sites. It feels like while the industry has pushed quarterbacks back a little bit in one QB redraft, that what gets missed sometimes in dynasty is the same thing we talked about the wide receivers, only more so. We might get 10 years of production, like legitimate top five quarterback production from Jaden Daniels. I wonder with Allen and Jackson, two guys that are getting close to 30, what do you think the shape of their career looks like in their 30s when they've been pretty dependent on rushing production to be elite fantasy quarterbacks? That's a great question.

Starting point is 00:16:17 And I think Josh Allen, his rushing production is more of like, he's a big body and they give him touches in the red zone and he gets a bunch of rushing touchdowns. And that feels more sustainable, uh, deeper into a career than a Lamar where it's more of like, Hey, we're giving it to you on a read option and you're going to run out there and pick up 60 yard runs. That feels like those wheels could fall off sooner than a guy like Josh Allen.

Starting point is 00:16:51 Yeah, I think, I think that's probably fair. And I think Jackson's a year younger than Allen. Is that right? Maybe, maybe two years younger. Um, I, I've struggled with how to value Daniels versus those guys. Cause in my projections for this year, I actually have Daniels projected as the number one quarterback in fantasy. And so with him being younger than them, it kind of is obvious I would prefer him in dynasty as well. It's not

Starting point is 00:17:16 though, because I'm far more certain that Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are giving me multiple top five fantasy seasons. I've only seen one season and really about half of a season from Jaden Daniels of elite fantasy production. Do you think his profile is pretty safe or would you like to see a little bit more before you put them in that tier with Alan and Jackson? He feels pretty safe to me because what he did from a actual fantasy football perspective is incredible, but in real life, I mean, he takes them to the playoffs and you know, this is the most success the commanders have had in ages.

Starting point is 00:17:54 He did it with his arm as well as his legs. And, you know, obviously he, he was a Heisman winner. Um, if I'm not mistaken at LSU, right? So I think he's, he's got a full, full profile here. It's not like, oh man, where did this guy come from? Can he keep it up? To me, it feels like I would be much more surprised if he didn't keep it up. Yeah. I think if, if Dan was here and Dan is in the draft, but he's not on the show. I think if Dan was here, he would talk about Jayden Daniels weight and quarterbacks that size and staying healthy in the NFL. I was concerned coming into the year about whether he would protect himself. And I thought he did a much better job of that as a rookie

Starting point is 00:18:42 than he did at LSU. That's true. He did take a bunch of huge shots at LSU. And so that was a pleasant surprise for sure. And you need to see that continue. Definitely. We have finished up round three here. And so let's take a look at the round three results.

Starting point is 00:19:01 Started off with me taking Jayden Daniels as we already talked about. Then Josh Allen for Matt, Devontae Smith, Christian McCaffrey, Lamar Jackson, Sam Laporta, Bucky Irving, Tedaroa McMillan, Jalen Hertz, Omari and Hampton, Breece Hall, and Jonathan Taylor. So it's Daniels, Allen Smith, McCaffrey Jackson. That's three quarterbacks in the first five picks. McAfee Jackson, that's three quarterbacks in the first five picks. Laporta, Irving, McMillan, Hertz, Hampton Hall, and Taylor. I think those last three running backs are really interesting.

Starting point is 00:19:34 Amarian Hampton, Breece Hall, Jonathan Taylor. Hall and Taylor have both been top three dynasty running backs at some point based on consensus. Hampton came into my rankings at RB 12. I currently have Taylor at eight hall at seven. How would you rank those three running backs? So you said Hampton hall and Taylor. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:20:00 Probably in that order. Um, yeah, opposite order that they went in. order. Yeah. So the opposite order that they went in. Sure. Yeah. I think Hampton, I really liked the tape. I think he's, he's a really good high end fantasy starter and he landed in the perfect situation and the hit rate on first round running backs is really, really good. So I think really highly of Hampton.

Starting point is 00:20:24 Brees, you know, arguably the most talented of the three that we're talking about, but last year was disappointing and so it feels like maybe a risky pick, but a lot of upside. And then Taylor, you know, I don't love taking older running backs in the startup. He's 26, you know, a year from now, people are gonna be talking about him as as old a lot of injury history there.

Starting point is 00:20:47 So I think I still really like Taylor, but that's why for him for me of those three guys, he would be the lowest on my list. Yeah, I for this year. Taylor's actually my favorite, but I do make a good point. I don't think he's quite to the age and we're getting to the point at the end of round four where you're going to see Matt's on the clock here. So I'll talk for a second. You're going to see some of the older players come off the board. We've already seen Saquon Barkley. We've already seen Christian McCaffrey. Soon we'll see guys

Starting point is 00:21:17 like Derek Henry, maybe some of those 30 year old wide receivers. And what I always tell people is you get to round four or five and you make that pick. For me, you've kind of determined the direction you're going in the startup. I'm not going to draft a lot of guys that I don't think you're going to contribute this year because I've got a 28 year old running back or a 31 year old wide receiver who's a top five round pick for me. I'm going to go try to win the league this year. I'm going to try to make my pick I'm going to go try to win the league this year. I'm going to go try to make my pick right now. You took Quinn Sean Judkins with pick 47. You expect him to just be the, the work workhorse from the very get go in Cleveland.

Starting point is 00:21:55 Yes. And no, like I do really like Dylan Sampson and I think there'll be a committee of some kind there and I think they compliment each other really, really well, um, but I think there there's gonna be plenty of touches. I think Judkins is a talented back. I hadn't taken a running back yet in this draft and he was my highest available. Like he was my best available overall rankings

Starting point is 00:22:17 and I needed a running back so it felt like, you know, a win-win there for me. Isn't it a great feeling when those two things work out together in the middle of the startup? Like your favorite player left is also the position that you need. Let's take a look at the round four results. Dave started it off with James Cook, followed by Zay Flowers, Trevion Henderson, Josh Jacobs, Roma Dunze, Joe Burrow, Kyron Williams, George Kittle.

Starting point is 00:22:42 There's one of those older and right behind him, Devonte Adams, Chris Olavi, Quincheon Judkins, and I took Jordan Addison to end the round. So Cook, Flowers, Henderson, Jacobs, Odunze, Burrow, Williams, Kittle, Adams, Olavi, Judkins, and Addison. Roma Dunze at pick 41. I think to Dan Schneier, I think right. Very similar to where I have him in my rankings, but I feel very, very

Starting point is 00:23:12 uncomfortable with him, with DJ Moore and with Luther Burton. Do you have a good idea of how you think this is going to play out in this year? Or you just as confused as I am. And it has a Dunze value gone down for you since he was drafted. I think it has, it has to have, because I mean, you could make bold predictions all you want, but nobody really knows until we see it. And so he went from a guy that I really liked the tape. I really liked the prospect high draft capital.

Starting point is 00:23:46 The offense was anemic. The coaching was rough, but they go get Ben Johnson and they revamped their offensive line and Keenan Allen moves on and so now it's like, okay, we've got Rome and DJ Moore are gonna get a really concentrated target share and in this Ben Johnson offense and it's gonna be beautiful and it just didn't work out that way

Starting point is 00:24:07 because they went and got Loveland and they got Birdman. So now it feels like I have to drop Odunze down because it just feels murky. If I had to make a guess, I think Odunze and DJ Moore are still the top two targets in that offense, but Odunze didn't produce at a super high level last year.

Starting point is 00:24:28 And so if I have to be patient on him again, that's frustrating as a dynasty owner. It is. I mean, we saw this same script play out with JSN, right? The big difference being that they didn't draft a wide receiver or bring in Ben Johnson. They brought in a defensive coach and then JSN got more of a chance. I think with Odunze, you can look at it as a positive or a negative this off season. He got Ben Johnson. Look at the opportunity to play in a Ben Johnson offense. Then he got Luther Burden, which some people might would tell you, no, Luther Burden is just going to be kind of a gadget player. He's not going to negatively impact, Roma do and say,

Starting point is 00:25:08 do you think we ought to be seeing more or Burden coming off the board pretty soon? More kind of, it's a strange comparison because we don't know what Burden's gonna do this year, but Burden's also five or six years younger than DJ Moore. Yeah, sorry, I was looking at my cue. Can you repeat the question for me? So I just want to talk about like we talked about for this year with the Bears and how

Starting point is 00:25:29 we feel about a doon save. What about the other two guys, DJ Moore and Luther Burden? Is how you value those two guys just solely based on whether you're competing or not? Probably. Yeah. I mean, I think DJ Moore is a a really really good wide receiver and he's the the incumbent there even though he's you know obviously you could say that Ben Johnson went and got his guy with burden and that he inherited DJ Moore, but Burdens gonna have to earn his way on DJ. I think is kind of the incumbent guy and and he's More than talented enough to keep his spot So I think it's more likely that you're going to have to be patient with Burden and then the short-term DJ Morris is going to be the producer there.

Starting point is 00:26:10 And so, yeah, I think that is a contender rebuild type of a conversation. And at the, at the beginning of the 2025 season, DJ Moore will be 28, Luther Burden will be 21, so I may maybe undersold that difference in age just a little bit. I have Moore as my wide receiver 27 in Dynasty. I would value him more if I was competing, obviously. I have Burden as my wide receiver 31. I'd value him a little bit more if I was going into a rebuild. I think if you are rebuilding and you've got DJ Moore and you want to make that trade when you're on the clock, I'm okay with it. It seems like you should maybe get just a little bit more than that. But I do think we are, we're getting close to finishing

Starting point is 00:26:54 up round five here. Let's take a look at some of the picks from this round. And I started or actually latest results right here. I'll figure out how to run this draft board one day. I started the round with Chase Brown. I was kind of surprised that Chase Brown fell to round five. I think we talked before the NFL draft about Brown and how he was one of those guys that, you know what, if he has the workload he did last year,

Starting point is 00:27:23 he's probably a top eight dynasty running back, but there's so much risk that they add somebody in free agency or they add somebody in the NFL draft. They did draft Taj Brooks, but it was on day three very late. The other guys on the team are Zach Moss and Samajay P. Ryan. It's been a spectacular summer for Chase Brown. Why is he not picked earlier in this format? I think it's a good question. I think people are always, and you see it still with Kyron Williams to an extent. It's like when the day three running back hits, everybody stays skittish on them because until they get that long-term contract extension, you're worried that

Starting point is 00:27:57 the team is going to replace them. And so, you know, the same conversation we were having this year about, you know, is he going to get tanked in the off season? You're going to be having that conversation again next year, most likely. And so, yeah, I think that's probably why he fell the way he did, but it's a good value for whoever took him. Let's take a look at the full round five results now. It's Chase Brown followed by Xavier Worthy. I was really considering worthy. I'd already drafted Rushie rice though. And I wasn't sure I wanted to double up there without the actual stack.

Starting point is 00:28:31 So you get worthy at pick 50. I think that's a good value following worthy was Chuba Hubbard, Tyree kill, Mike Evans, Ken Walker, Chris Godwin, Jalen Waddle, Terry McLaurin, Patrick Mahomes goes off the board, DJ Moore and Jameson Williams. So it's Worthy Hubbard Hill, Evans Walker Godwin, Waddle McLaurin Mahomes, Moore and Jameson Williams. Ken Walker, another guy at pick 54, but I thought maybe fell a little bit further than he should have. I wrote about him earlier this week in my breakouts 1.0, excellent opportunity for him with the new offensive system that's been very running back friendly coming in. But I think everybody just looks at Ken Walker and they see Zach Charbonneau standing there in his shadow. And they're a little bit concerned that Charbonne is going to overtake him at some point.

Starting point is 00:29:27 Where are you at on Walker and Charbonne in dynasty? I still think Walker's better than Charbonne when healthy, and the team has continued to go that way with the touches. So I have Walker at 45, so I agree with you that he was a little bit of a value at 54. And I think. Charbonneé probably is just going to continue to be a really high end handcuff until if and when they move on from Walker, which, you know, they went

Starting point is 00:29:55 and drafted Damian Martinez. I know he was round seven. I really liked the talent there. I liked the player. And so I think Seattle, if they wanted to move on from Walker, has the luxury with having Charbonne and Martinez in that room. I think that's a pretty solid running back room. Matt is back on the clock.

Starting point is 00:30:13 We've had a big time wide receiver run here in round six of our one quarterback PPR startup mock draft. We will get to the round six results and who Matt picks after our second break, which is right now. We are back on the clock. You took TJ Hawkinson.

Starting point is 00:30:33 I am on the clock right now, Matt. Do you expect a big bounce back from Hawkinson? And how many years do you think we have of tied in one production from him? Yeah, I do. I think he should bounce back. I think he's a really talented player, always has been. I still like him as the number two threat above Addison in that offense. I think it's

Starting point is 00:30:52 Jefferson, then Hockinson, then Addison. He's a nice security blanket for J.J. McCarthy as he kind of gets his feet wet and maybe is a little bit more looking for the dink and dunk and not pushing the ball downfield as much early maybe. But yeah, I think Hawkinson is plenty talented. You're looking at the second year coming off the ACL injury and he's still, I don't have it in front of me. He's 26 or 27 years old maybe. So I think he should still have

Starting point is 00:31:24 at least three or four good years. Most of these tight ends are playing well into their thirties. So. Hawkinson will be 28 at the start of this season. Matt is back on the clock because I just made a six, seven turn of Matthew Golden and Tyler Warren will take a look at my team, which is beginning to look very, very young. I have Jaden Daniels at quarterback, Chase Brown, my only running back through seven rounds. My wide receivers, Jamar Chase, Rushy Rice, Jordan Addison, Matthew Golden. My tight end is Tyler Warren. I will probably pair him with a veteran tight end a little bit later in this draft because I'm a little bit concerned

Starting point is 00:32:01 about year one for Warren, but I saw Colston Loveland go off the board. I had a kind of a strange dilemma and I think that you probably just answered the dilemma with your next pick because when I look at the running back position right now and I'm surprised actually based on some of our past mocks, Derek Henry still there in round seven, Alvin Kamara still there in round seven, Joe Mixon still there in round seven. Alvin Camara still there in round seven. Joe Mixon still there in round seven. You chose Mixon with the second pick of round seven. I wonder when you look at these three guys, Mixon is a couple years younger than Henry and Camara. Henry and Camara obviously were spectacular last year when they were healthy.

Starting point is 00:32:46 Mixon's season was up and down, but he was still very, very good. At Mixon's age, which he could be done at any point, will be 29 at the start of this season, but again, younger than the other guys. Does his age get him a boost or do you just view all three of those guys, Henry, Camara and Mixon as if this might be their last year? I think to an extent, yes, but I think there's a better chance that Mixon gives you two to three years than the other guys. So I do give a slight edge to him because the other guys, I'm almost sure that it's their last year. And Mixon, I mean, Henry, so because Henry's on a contending team, right. It wouldn't.

Starting point is 00:33:33 And because he's a superhuman, it wouldn't shock me to get two more years out of Henry, but Camara, it feels like they're already three years overdue for blowing that thing up and moving on. Right. So I feel pretty confident that this is probably Kamara's last year. Henry, maybe two, and then Mixon feels like the best chance to give me two to three. Let's take a look at our round six results from our 1QB PPR startup mock draft. Dave started the round off with RJ Harvey

Starting point is 00:34:05 and then the league went bananas on wide receivers. DK Metcalf, Emeka Egbuka, Caleb Johnson, Colston Loveland, George Pickens, Ricky Pearsall, Jerry Judy, love that pic Nicholas, Cortland Sutton, Jaden Reed, TJ Hockinson and Matthew Golden. So Harvey Metcalf Egbuka, Johnson, Loveland Pickens, Pearsall, Judy Sutton, Reed, Hockinson and Golden. Both DK Metcalf and George Pickens get taken in this draft. We haven't talked much on this show yet about the Pickens trade to Dallas freeing

Starting point is 00:34:42 Metcalf up as the true number one wide receiver in Pittsburgh. I know it changed people's projections for this year, and I think it will change the redraft rankings a little bit. Metcalf's moving up, Pickens moving up for some people as well. Does it really make a big difference in dynasty? Before the trade, and I will be updating these rankings for May relatively soon, but I had George Pickens as wide receiver 32 in dynasty, DK Metcalf as wide receiver 35 in dynasty, Metcalf is three years older than Pickens. These guys go up, down, or just stay the same after this move? I think for me, Metcalf maybe goes up a little bit, but he's, it's weird because neither of those guys

Starting point is 00:35:33 were a great fit together in my opinion. Like they're both big ex-boundary receivers. And so I didn't think that they were really a fit. And so they both can probably perform well. Like I think Pickens compliments Lamb better than he complements Metcalf. Um, and Metcalf should get all the targets he can handle, but who's throwing them the ball? I don't know.

Starting point is 00:35:54 Um, honestly, I'm not overly in love with either guy. Like I think Pickens is a diva and the Steelers wanted to get rid of him for a reason. He's been a head case for years. I haven't seen that much improvement in his game. I don't think he's ever going to be, um, people get tantalized because he's tall and fast and you know, the upside, but for me, like he's consistently been worse than a wide receiver three and fantasy. And I don't see him getting a whole lot better because he's just a big jump ball

Starting point is 00:36:27 guy and he's never going to get big volume. So between those guys, I'm probably well below consensus on pickings and, uh, I'm lukewarm on Metcalf at his ADP. I think I'm a little bit below consensus on pickings as well. The problem with me for DK Metcalf is I think you probably would have agreed when he came into the league, I really viewed this as like a high upside guy that could, is really going to give you some, some league winning seasons. And he's had one of those.

Starting point is 00:37:00 And even that one was kind of a mid-wide receiver one season. He's also had five seasons outside of the top 20 wide receivers in terms of fantasy production. Now he's in Arthur Smith's offense for at least one year. He doesn't seem like a super high upside guy based on the production. Do you think in the right situation, maybe the Steelers are just terrible this year and they get a good quarterback next year and they fire Arthur Smith And they hire a good offensive coordinator. Do you think he still has the upside that we thought he had coming into the NFL? No, I think he is who he is He's an athletic freak, but people mistakenly and I can fall into this trap sometimes too. I Think at the wide receiver position we're learning over and over and over again that people equate upside with tall fast, like, you know, the,

Starting point is 00:37:51 this physical freak, the athleticism. Very well said. And I think upside of the wide receiver position is route running and who gets open and earns the most targets and is a weapon after the catch. And I think the NFL is moving more and more and more that way. And I just don't think Metcalf is that guy and I don't think he ever will be. No, that's pretty much where I am as well. Let's recap round seven results here while Matt gets ready for his round eight pick.

Starting point is 00:38:22 I took Tyler Warren to start the round. You took Joe Mixon, then Caleb Williams, Brandon Iuke, Jack Besh, David Montgomery, Zach Charbonneau, Jaden Higgins, Derek Henry, there's that one, Khalil Shakir, Alvin Kamara, there's that one, and then Bo Nix to Dave to end round seven. The name that was most interesting to me there, Joel took Brandon Iyuk. And I've been a guy that's kind of been low on Brandon Iyuk against consistent consensus for most of his career, maybe underrating the talent, but generally being right about the production.

Starting point is 00:38:57 Now we've got this ACL MCL recovery that he's coming back from a lot of talk that he may not be ready until halfway through the 2025 season. Although that's just talk. We don't know that for sure yet. He like Metcalf 27 years old now, so not really getting a discount for the age. If you were comparing him to Metcalf and Pickens, where are you at on Brandon? I, you. I like him more because I think he's a better route runner than those guys. And I honestly, there's so many things that went wrong last year. It's hard to pinpoint. Um, the injury was part of it, but before that he was also, you know, just not, not getting it done. So he had the holdout. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:39:42 And then, you know, Jennings played really well in his absence. Pierce all looks really good, but I still think like when he's locked in and his head is in the right place and he's healthy, I think I, you has the talent to be a wide receiver one in fantasy. Um, and I don't think that's true of Pickens or Metcalf. Yeah. I, I, I know a lot of people who watched the film and who I trust, including yourself, have that same opinion of Iyuk. And I, I hesitate to dispute it, but when I, like, I am still a bit of a, let's go look and see what the back of the football card shows.

Starting point is 00:40:26 And we're five years into an NFL career and there's not even a 120 target season on there, there's not an 80 catch season. There's, there's one season over 1100 yards. There's not a 10 touchdown season. And some of that's because of the system that he's played in in San Francisco. And he's been surrounded by a bunch of elite talent. Like there's context to Brandon Iyuk's production or lack of production. He did have the 1300 yard season in 2023 and it's possible that he comes back and Debo's

Starting point is 00:40:57 gone and George Kittle's aging out and all these things do finally come into fruition. I think if you believe that, now is a fantastic time to buy Iyuk as a believer. My problem with that, Matt, and I think we may have to give Jacob a little bit of a grace period here. There you go, Jacob. You got another 60 seconds to make your pick here at the end of round eight. I think the problem with that is who's trading for Brandon Iyuk? Is it the contender who doesn't know if by you is going to help them this year? Or is it the rebuilder trading for a wide receiver who might be 28 before he's good at fantasy football again? Yeah, probably more the contender.

Starting point is 00:41:37 Yeah, I would think, you know, somebody that, and that's a risk, right? If you've got limited assets and you're going to try to trade some of those for a piece that can help you win and then you trade it for somebody who doesn't help you win, that's problematic. But I think it's, yeah, it's a gamble on the talent and I'm on the clock. So I think I'm gonna go ahead and lock up my first bench piece here.

Starting point is 00:42:08 I've got my starting lineup filled. I believe no, I've got another flex. Tell you what, I'm going to take a risk and I'm going to draft Michael Pittman. That's what I'm going to do. Why don't you talk about Pittman versus downs and concerns about Anthony Richardson this year while I try to figure out how to make two draft picks. Yeah, I think Pittman, he's consistently been a top 15 to 20 wide receiver throughout his

Starting point is 00:42:35 career prior to last year. And we know it's documented he was playing through a fractured back. There are very good reasons for why he took a significant step backwards last year. And so I think he's a fairly smart bet for a bounce back. The question is how much of a bounce back because, again, there are mouths to feed, right? You've added Warren to that offense. Josh Downs is really talented in his own right. I like Josh Downs.

Starting point is 00:43:00 And then Anthony Richardson is like the ultimate question mark. Is he going to take a step forward or is he continue going to continue to be one of the worst passing quarterbacks in the league, the low volume with all the mouths to feed it, that's why I said I'm going to take a risk by taking Pittman. But if I get him here and he gives me like solid wide receiver three production, I feel good about that. And I feel good about that. And I feel like that's very much within the range of outcomes that he's like a top, you

Starting point is 00:43:30 know, 25 to 30 wide receiver this year for fantasy football. Let's get the round eight recap. I just took a couple of running backs at the seven, eight turn that it seems like absolutely nobody wants to draft, but me, whether it's redraft or dynasty, we'll talk about them. But first let's take a look at round eight. Absolutely nobody wants to draft but me, whether it's redraft or dynasty, we'll talk about them. But first, let's take a look at round eight. Dave takes Luther Burden to start the round, followed by Justin Herbert. Then we get Basial Tutin, Dre Harris, a couple of rookies, Josh Downs, Cam Scadaboo, Mark

Starting point is 00:43:59 Andrews, Joanne Jennings, James Connor, the last of the, maybe an RB one, maybe his last season of playing football, I would say. And then Jalen Knoll, Michael Pittman and Deandre Swift. So again, it's Burden, Herbert Tooten, Harris, Down, Scadaboo, Andrews, Jennings, Connor, Knoll, Pittman, Swift. Of those three, was it three rookies, four rookies. So Burden, Tooten, Harris, that's three.

Starting point is 00:44:29 Scataboo makes four. Noel makes five. I think for most people Noel will be at the end of the list in terms of rookie draft preference. How do you rank it in terms of Burden versus Scataboo versus Tooten versus Harris? So my dynasty rankings would be Burden and then Scataboo and then Harris. Uh, and who was the, who was the fourth?

Starting point is 00:44:57 Facial Tooten. Yeah, I would have him fourth, I think of that group. And I actually, I like all of those players. Um, I think the landing spot for Harris was really nice. I think tootin probably would be higher if ETN and Bigsby weren't there. And he's the guy that Cohen went and got, and neither of those guys, ETN or Bigsby has shown a ton over the last couple of years. So, um, I think tootin has a chance to come in and earn the lead

Starting point is 00:45:25 back roll there under the Liam Cohen. I think there's a lot of upside with that pick, but for me, Scadaboo was the guy that I absolutely loved his tape. I loved the landing spot. Obviously I don't love the fourth round draft capital, but it's understandable in such a deep class and it was like early fourth round. So Scadaboo was in my queue. I was ready to pick him, uh, and then got sniped a couple of picks before he made it to me. Um, so burdens ranked higher in my dynasty rankings, but I think if you need a running bag now, Scataboo probably is going to produce earlier than burden is. Always like to take a look at the other guys team while we're drafting. And I always tell people like at some point during these live mocks where I'm hosting, I completely lose the script

Starting point is 00:46:11 of the draft and don't have any idea who my best available player is. I assume that happens to everyone else who's on the show with me as well. But you've got a pretty good squad here. So you've got Josh Allen as your quarterback. You also have Drake May as his backup. Your running backs are Joe Mixon and Quinchon. Judkins does not look like you have a third yet. At wide receiver, Justin Jefferson, Garrett Wilson, Xavier Worthy and Michael Pittman. And then your tight end is TJ Hawkinson.

Starting point is 00:46:40 How are you feeling about this squad through nine rounds? I feel pretty good about it. I think it's a well-rounded, I would expect that it should be a contending roster with some youth and talent on there too. Obviously in a 1QB, I felt a little iffy taking my second quarterback that early, but all my starting spots were filled. Just the upside there for him to be a trade piece, to go get somebody better than what's available at running back or wide receiver on the board right now.

Starting point is 00:47:13 Um, because I think May, you know, I'm secure with Alan, but you mentioned the age. And so now I've got a, another young guy that has rushing upside and, you know, kind of could be either the future of my team at quarterback or a piece of trade bait. So I feel pretty good about where, where I'm at right now. Speaking of may, when you look at that class of quarterbacks, um, from last year, so Jayden Daniels, Bo Nicks had a very good year, Caleb Williams was.

Starting point is 00:47:44 Bad, but now he's got Ben Johnson. So Jaden Daniels, Bo Nix had a very good year. Caleb Williams was bad, but now he's got Ben Johnson, so everything's fine. Even Michael Penick and JJ McCarthy, we're going to learn more about them here soon. Do you think May, like where does he fit amongst that group? Is it Daniels in one tier and then Nix Williams in May and then the other guys far behind or where is May for you? and then the other guys far behind or or where where is May for you? Uh yeah Daniels is definitely in his own tier um and then I think there's a second tier for me that's like Caleb, May, and Nix because Nix has has a little bit of that rushing upside you know finished as a top 12 quarterback his rookie um I didn't love him as much as a prospect and he's a little bit on the older side, but you can't argue with the production that he put up this year and then May

Starting point is 00:48:32 with the Konami code, the rushing ability. And he looked really good when he got a chance to start this past year. So overall, I think those are the three guys and then Pennex, I think his upside is really limited because he doesn't run the football. He's an older player. He's a pocket passer. I think he can be a solid QB too, but I don't think he has the QB one upside that the other

Starting point is 00:48:55 three guys have that we just talked about. Good comment here in the chat before we recap round nine. And Matt B says six months ago, most analysts were saying this draft was shallow today. All analysts are saying the class is deep happens every year. All right. Somebody should definitely do like the, the theory of the rookie picks and the theory of the draft class, because there are certain seasons where

Starting point is 00:49:20 it seems like everybody thinks the same thing about the class, there will be a time when everybody says the 2026 class is going to be better than the 2025 class. And there will be a time when everybody says the 2027 class is definitely going to be better than the 2026 class. And so I think it's good just to remember that these things do move in waves and maybe don't get too attached to any one understanding about a draft class until we have the landing spots.

Starting point is 00:49:43 But I do feel really good about this being a deep class right now. So round nine, I started it with Tony Pollard, then Drake May, Travis Etienne, Trey Benson, Jalen Warren, CJ Stroud, Wondell Robinson, Isaiah Pacheco, Keon Coleman, David Njoku, Tyrone Tracy, Tucker Craft. I'm gonna ask you in just a second

Starting point is 00:50:03 who your favorite pick from this round was, Matt. It was Pollard, May, Tucker Kraft. I'm going to ask you in just a second who your favorite pick from this round was, Matt, it was Pollard, May, Etienne, you can't say May, Benson, Warren, Stroud, Robinson, Pacheco, Coleman, Joku, Tracy, and Kraft. Other than Drake May, who's your favorite pick in round nine? So I like your pick of Pollard. I do think, you know, if he gives you a couple more years of good running back production, he's too cheap for, for what he is right now. And then shroud, you know, it, I don't know if that team faded quarterback

Starting point is 00:50:34 and this was the first one they took, but if they did, you know, that's a pretty good one to get after waiting this long. So, um, I like those two picks. Yes, that was their first quarterback in round nine, CJ Stroud, Matt's back on the clock for his round 10 pick. We are going to wrap things up here on FFT dynasty, but we will finish the mock and then I will publish the results as always

Starting point is 00:50:57 over at cbssports.com. Wanna thank you, Matt, for being here. Wanna thank Harry for running everything. Matt, before we go, while I'm making these next two picks, tell everybody where they can find your work. Yeah, so I own a brand called Couch Scouts. We have a podcast, so you can search any podcast platform for Couch Scouts and find us there. And just this year, we launched a website. So we've got a ton of resources available on there. We've got a rookie guide, which we covered over 70 prospects, in depth film grades, scouting reports, color coded rankings by tier, pre and post draft rankings. So I think it's the ultimate cheat sheet for dominating your rookie draft.

Starting point is 00:51:40 You can book a 30 minute consultation with one of our pros to talk about your roster. We've got bonus podcasts every week for our members, all kinds of good stuff. And last time I was on here, I created a promo code FFT for 50% off. And I said we had 100 codes and we didn't use all of them. Some of them are still out there. So any of our annual packages, you can get 50% off your first year with Couch Scouts by using the promo code FFT. Thank you as always, Matt and everybody go check out Couch Scouts. Take advantage of

Starting point is 00:52:21 that promo code. Thank you to everybody who was active in the chat. We will talk to you next Tuesday.

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