Fantasy Football Today - Dynasty QB & RB Rankings Debates! (04/12 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: April 12, 2022

It's a dynasty Tuesday debating Heath's rankings and dissecting his process. We start with ranking the incoming rookies (1:00) ... Quarterback rankings debates (6:00) with Lance, Fields and Lawrence coming off weak rookie seasons. And how much upside does Mac Jones have? ... Heath is much below the industry consensus on Matt Ryan (22:00) ... Dynasty running back talk (28:00) as Nick Chubb may be over the hump in the next two years and David Montgomery poised to be a workhorse ... Josh Jacobs talk (40:20) and why Michael Carter still could be an RB1 down the road. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. Tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races. Touchdown.

Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today Podcast. I'm Jamie Eisenberg. That's Dave Richard. That's Heath Cummings. Got a fun show for you today. It's Tuesday.

It's April 12th. And we're talking more Dynasty, looking at some quarterbacks and running backs. It's a very Heath Cummings show. So, Heath, I hope you're ready to go. So, we'll get into some more wide receiver tight end talk, obviously, later on. But today we're focusing on the quarterbacks and the guys who carry the ball out of the backfield. And, Heath, when you're going through this process for you,

this, you know, putting together your rankings for Dynasty, what's sort of like the biggest takeaway that you look at for these two positions in terms of, you know, factoring in the rookies, factoring in the incoming rookies, the players that we just saw? How does it all work together for you? Yeah, I mean, for the rookies, I think it was that I still feel like there's a pretty solid top three at running back. And, man, for at quarterback, it does not look like there's going to be a first-round pick in one quarterback leagues.

And it might be a late second round pick, especially if like the recent mocks are true and Malik Willis is going to fall a little bit and Kenny Pickett's going to be the first quarterback taken. I don't think anybody's going to be taking him very early in fantasy drafts. His profile is not particularly good for that purpose. So I like three running backs a lot, and I think I like five to six wide receivers a lot in this rookie class. But after that first eight or nine, I might be selling for 2023 picks. We just did a rookie-only mock, one quarterback, PPR, 12 teams. We did three rounds. You're posting that on the site.

I'm assuming by the time people are listening to this, they'll be able to check it out. Oh, yeah. It should go up up probably the next hour from right now. So, okay. Yeah. We're not going to spend a lot of time, uh, in this show on incoming rookies, but, um, anything that stood out to you about the pre-draft process, uh, about where these rookies were taken so far? Um, well, Dave made me do some research on Alec Pierce and move him up a little bit.

Um, cause Dave took him in the middle of the second middle of the second round and uh i knew he wouldn't make it back to me in round three i i don't know if that's true he's around 40 in a lot of the consensus rankings podcasts and i think he would have considered i would have taken him in round three round three yeah yeah so uh yeah that that was the first one. But again, it was, like I said, I think there's a top eight. The top eight of the top nine picks were those eight guys. Dave, anything stand out to you?

You're part of the draft. I think you had, what, the eighth or ninth pick, maybe? I was sixth, I believe. Sixth. And tried something a little different. I went with Trelon Burks ahead of some of the other receivers that I've really studied just because I see the profile and I know kind of what NFL coaches are looking for as far as wide receivers that can make big plays after the catch. I think

he might qualify as one of those guys. I was surprised that the receiver run didn't include Jamison Williams going a lot earlier. Wasn't surprised about the quarterbacks. Not surprised about the tight ends. I think the first one off the board was Trey McBride, and I don't think he went until the last pick around two to Heath. So Heath's right. This is going to be a very running back and wide receiver heavy rookie draft class and i don't know if there are very many um top tier type of players

in this draft class i think breeze hall is about as close as you get to it from the running backs i don't know if i'm willing to put any wide receiver in that elite tier and so i don't even think you have to wait till 9th 10th 11, 11th, 12th in round one to start trying to trade back or trade out toward 2023. I think if you don't have the first overall pick, you could start considering offers for next year's draft class, assuming that you're okay with what you have in your lineup and what you'll get in round two and round three. It's deep.

You'll find good talent in round two and round three at wide receiver and tight end will be there in rounds two and round three at wide receiver and tight end will be there in rounds two and rounds three but you could trade out around one and get a 2023 first round pick and maybe something else on top of it and and we'll see obviously where these guys end up because whoever goes to the packers if they take a wide receiver in the first round if the chiefs take a wide receiver in the first round if the falcons invest in a wide receiver you know there's going to be some interesting moves there uh the running backs you mentioned, Heath, I'm assuming the top three for you are going to be Brees Hall,

Ken Walker, and Isaiah Spiller. Easily the first two, I think, for a lot of people are Brees Hall and Ken Walker. So we'll see, you know, if they end up in good spots or if it's going to be somebody like Isaiah Spiller or Robinson from Alabama or White from Arizona State. You know, there's a lot of interesting names in this draft from the running back spot, but, you know, similar to what Dave was saying about the wide receiver position.

I think once you get past Hall and Walker, the landing spots are going to matter. James Cook out of Georgia as well. White as well from Georgia also, you know. So there's some interesting players. So the fits and the landing spots will certainly matter, and we'll talk a lot about that once we get through the NFL draft, which is just about two weeks away.

So getting very close to finalizing a lot of NFL rosters, at least for the most part with the free agency period done for the majority. And then clearly with the NFL draft as well. If you're looking for a leg up on your bookmaker, we've got you covered on the early edge podcast powered by sports line. Every day you can join Jonathan Coachman and an expert crew of sports line handicappers to break down the biggest games of the day. Every episode is 20 minutes or shorter, and it is in your feed by 11 a.m. Eastern.

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These are the fantasy pros consensus rankings, and this is going to be compared to where Heath has these guys ranked for dynasty purposes at quarterback and running back. So let's start with the quarterbacks. Let's take a look at some of the guys who were rookies last season, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Trevor Lawrence in particular. So consensus has Lance at 10, Fields at 11, and Lawrence at 12. Heath, you have Lawrence at 9, Fields at 10, and Lance at 14. I know you're very high on Justin Fields. I'm surprised that you have Trevor Lawrence ahead of him.

Is that just based on what the pre-draft process was last season? Because based on what we saw, he wasn't great in his rookie year in Jacksonville. Now, obviously, new head coach. Hopefully, things will be much better now that the Urban Meyer era is gone. Doug Peterson taking over in Jacksonville. So start with Trevor Lawrence and what your outlook is for him 2022 and beyond. Yeah, I tried to just not hold last year against this rookie class because if I if you were going to I think they were all pretty miserable

basically these rankings are almost exactly the same as where I had them last September the main difference being that Deshaun Watson was behind all of them then and Deshaun Watson has passed all of them now but I still like Lawrence as a prospect was top tier like it was a it was a major difference between him and i know it went lawrence then wilson then lance in the draft one two three but i don't think anybody was seriously considering wilson or lance over trevor lawrence as a prospect or as a draft pick he had such a separation for me from that class in terms of what I thought he could be. And nobody was good. I mean, Mac Jones was way better than we thought.

Davis Mills was way better than we thought. But they didn't show anything that would suggest they might be better than what we hoped Trevor Lawrence could be. So I just haven't had occasion to move Lance or Fields past him. I've had more concerns about Lance than really, I guess most people did since he was coming in just because of the limited track record. And I don't like the fact that Jimmy Garoppolo is still on the roster. I'd probably like, I know it's nonsense and nobody's really concerned about Jimmy starting over Trey Lance this year, but I, until he's off the roster,

I'm going to have a little bit of reservation there about what Kyle Shanahan wants to do week one. But going back to the original question, I, I still believe Trevor Lawrence could be Joe Burrow. I still believe Trevor Lawrence could be in that top tier of top six fantasy dynasty quarterbacks as soon as the middle of this season, if everything goes well. Hey, let's let's talk about what happened to Lawrence in the off season so far. So at least once again, off of that line and upgrade, Brandon Scherf comes in.

They bring in two new weapons, three new weapons, essentially, with Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Ingram. Doug Peterson, probably the biggest upgrade because, you know, at least he has a head coach that's competent now as opposed to what he had last season. So how much of a leap will Trevor Lawrence make? Will he make a leap similar to what Joe Burrow did from year one to year two? Will he make a leap, you know, closer to, you know, being a guy that you can view as a top 10 dynasty quarterback for years to come,

a must-start guy, or are we going to have another year of, you know, maybe just a slight improvement, you know, something like Tua Tunga-Vailoa, where, okay, you see some of the the ability some of the flashes but maybe not the the pre-draft hype of what this prospect could become i think he's got a shot to wedge his way in to the top 12 among fantasy quarterbacks in total points scored so not necessarily a top 12 on a per-game basis type of a quarterback. You see what the Jaguars are trying to do. They're trying to elevate the pass catchers around them. We sat every Sunday watching Trevor Lawrence throw to receivers

who were covered almost every single week. It wasn't until they unearthed Laquan Treadwell. It was literally Laquan Treadwell that was the first receiver that would consistently get open sometimes for Trevor Lawrence. And then you tack on the offensive line and you tack on the coaching and it was just a total catastrophe. And so Doug Peterson said it earlier this off season,

they're kind of wiping out that rookie year. They're going to build up Lawrence from the ground up, assuming that last year almost didn't even happen. I think that's great. And I think that they're adding some speed with Christian Kirk, some size with Evan Ingram, some size with Zay Jones. I still feel like they need another big piece. So, no, I don't see him making a Burrow-type leap

because Burrow had some really good – they got him Jamar Chase. He worked his way around the offensive line. Burrow was amazing. Trevor isn't there yet. And going back to our conversation about rookie wide receivers, there isn't a Jamar chase in this rookie class. There isn't somebody that's going to help further elevate Trevor Lawrence. So he might just,

you know, cobble his way into a top 12 finish. He should be better than he was last year. But if I'm thinking long-term about Lawrence, it's it's, he's a great talent. i don't think we can take that away from even after the disaster of 2021 and even if the next couple of years he just does kind of in jacksonville and he leaves jacksonville i bet he still gets a chance to at

least compete for a starting job later on does that make him a fantasy superstar no but it extends his career it gives him some long-term appeal for dynasty. And I agree with Heath. I don't know if Fields and Lance have that same type of long-term appeal that Trevor Lawrence has. That's why Lawrence should be the top guy because none of these quarterbacks have proven that they can be amazing for fantasy and be worth taking leaps and bounds ahead of the others just yet. I see that. I guess my counter would be is that we're always looking for that next great running quarterback. And Trey Lance, in the limited time that we saw him, he made three significant appearances as a rookie. And each of those three appearances, he ran for 31 yards or more.

So he showed you that he can do that. And I know what you said, Heath, obviously in regards to Jimmy Garoppolo. But I think he kind of screwed them a little bit by, you know, the shoulder surgery. And then he decided to have it. He did. And clearly, you know, the market kind of, you know, for what it's worth, you know, went dry pretty quickly with all the quarterback movement. Now there is another team that could use it. Well, probably two teams that can use a quarterback that's pretty glaring holes right now.

One in Carolina, one in Seattle. Be very, very strange to see this, the 49ers and the Seahawks make a trade for Jimmy Garoppolo. But maybe the Panthers are able to put an offer together that makes some sense for San Francisco. But there is the thought, you're right, that Garoppolo could break camp with them and they decide, you know what, he's still their best chance to win

and they work in some packages for Trey Lance like we saw early in the season. So that could ruin what would hopefully be a fun sophomore campaign. But to me, I just think that Trey Lance has maybe just as much upside, not from a pure talent standpoint, but from a fantasy standpoint, by comparison to Trevor Lawrence, because of what he will hopefully do with his legs. And we talked, you know, you mentioned it, Dave, that Joe Burrow had these amazing weapons around him. Well, I mean, you put any quarterback in San Francisco

and you got Debo Samuel and Brandon Ayuk and George Kittle, this offensive line, that play caller in that run game to support you, it's a pretty good situation. So I still think Trey Lance might have more upside than this other group, but Heath, in terms of Justin Fields, you've been singing his praises since he came into the NFL. I know you're a big fan of what he did at Ohio State. Certainly his last season there limited because of the game, because of COVID, but the year prior to that, he was pretty amazing. In terms of Justin Fields, does he have enough weapons? Does he have enough around him?

Does he have enough to be successful to justify four spots ahead of Trey Lance if everything works out right for both of these guys? And should he even be behind Trevor Lawrence? I struggle with him and Lawrence because I do think that just in terms of upside, I think Fields could be as good a passer as Lawrence, and I think Fields could be as good a rusher as Lance. And so that does give him more upside, but no, the Bears haven't done anything that makes me feel better about Justin Fields, other than the fact that they changed coaching staffs, but that's a complete unproven at this point as well. So if we get through the

draft, I'm expecting, hoping that there's going to be significant things that happen in the next month that make that situation in Chicago better. I'm going to have a hard time keeping him as high as I do. If that's not the case, because it's solely based on what I believe is Justin Fields upside as both a passer and a rusher and not anything Chicago's done because they've not done anything good. We know.

Well, we know that the Bears don't have a first-round pick. Byron Pringle is their biggest addition to their passing game so far this offseason. If we get out of the draft and we feel like the Bears are headed toward Tankville, that can't make you feel great about Justin Fields. Now you've got to think that the first two years of his career are going to be just absolutely wiped off. You've got three years left with him in a Chicago uniform. How quickly can they bounce back? How quickly can this coaching staff, and namely Luke Getze,

the offensive coordinator there, build something around Justin Fields that turns him into a fantasy dynamo in 2023 or 2024 and are you willing to wait that long so i'm i've you've if you're if you've got justin fields you have to play the waiting game with him you can't trade him you can try and trade for him and get him on the cheap right now especially if somebody else in your league has fields and they see what the bears are doing and they go all right justin fields is going to stink i'm done i'm out give me a you know a second round pick in 2023 whatever but that's that's what i see that's what makes me nervous about justin fields i i agree with heat he said that he's got almost as good of an arm as lance remember not as late sorry as

lawrence and certainly as good of a rusher as lance he's got that combo to him i really liked him coming out he's just landed in this terrible, and he's got a difficult situation that he's got to deal with, and fantasy managers are going to feel the brunt of that this year and maybe next year, too. How long do you want to wait for Justin Fields to break out? Heath, in a startup Lance? Probably round three, which means I think I'm not getting Lance. I think that makes me most likely to get Fields. Yeah, it'd be surprising if either of these guys made it to round three, to be honest with you,

because I think you're looking long-term at what they could be, and if their consensus ADP right now is, or consensus rankings is all the number one quarterbacks, we typically see those guys go relatively soon. And you know people get excited about these young quarterbacks. It'll be interesting to see in a startup super flex dynasty league when those three quarterbacks would go. Two other rookies that we're looking at here, and Heath just totally disrespecting – or maybe it's Ben Trager totally disrespecting Davis Mills,

not including him in this conversation. But consensus rankings have Mac Jones as the 18th-ranked quarterback in Dynasty and Zach Wilson as the 20th-ranked quarterback. Heath, you have Wilson 17 and Mac Jones 20. You mentioned that Mac Jones, just from a total point standpoint and what he was able to do in his rookie season, had the best rookie year, certainly the most successful from a win-loss standpoint. Zach Wilson had a little bit of a loss season, missed time due to injury, had a knee injury that he sustained. And as we saw when he was not there, the likes of Mike White and Josh Johnson were better for the other players on the Jets roster from a fantasy perspective.

But Wilson, there's a report that nobody wanted to play for the Jets in terms of free agents and Terry Kill didn't want to get traded there because they don't know what Zach Wilson actually is or can become. And Mac Jones, they had one significant addition this offseason in Devontae Parker. But for the most part, we'll see a lot of the same old caster characters. Can you make those guys better around him? So break down these two guys, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, and can either of them come close to the previous trio of Trevor Lawrence, Dustin field and trailings?

I don't really think so. I, I, I Wilson is the one that's the reason I have him ranked tires because I do think he actually has a significant amount of unrealized upside with his athleticism, with the potential weapons they're going to put around in this year, and the possibility of, I have a little bit more hope for an explosive offense

if everything went right with the Jets than I really do with the Patriots, because I think they're probably going to continue to win games the way they have for a long, long time. I think it's worth noting, as good as Mac Jones was last year for a rookie, he still averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game and finished in between Matt Ryan and Baker Mayfield at QB 29 on a per game basis. Now that was a lot better than Zach Wilson, but I just, it's, it's all about upside. I don't think what Jones gave you last year is that far from probably what he's going to give you in his really, really good seasons. And I think there's a hope that Wilson could maybe run for 350 yards over a season, 300 yards over a season,

and have a significant improvement as a passer. Dave, when you look at these two guys, do you agree with Heath? It's more about upside with Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, and throw Davis Mills in there because, you know, he showed a lot of positive things stepping in for what was a terrible situation in Houston. And they feel pretty comfortable, at least for 2022, that he's going to be their starter. And who knows what happens beyond that, because they are clearly loaning up with a lot of draft capital after trading Deshaun Watson, but they don't appear to be in the market for a quarterback in the NFL draft. And Mills could be somebody that might be

better than Wilson, better than Mack Jones, and closer to the previous trio. So give me your take on Wilson, Jones, and where Davis Mills sort of factors into all this. I think it all depends on whether you're looking for that upside or whether you're looking for someone that can be part of your bench long-term. Mack is the long-term guy. I think that he's got the chance to have a nice long career in New England with a couple of smash years in between.

But, I mean, a little bit better than what he did last year. Maybe he'll have a handful. Maybe his average will be right around 28 passing touchdowns and maybe like 4,000 yards. It's nothing that's going to make you go, wow, that's an amazing fantasy quarterback. I'm glad I have him. So certainly seeing the upside that Zach Wilson gives you,

because he's a scrambler. He'll run. He had four rushing touchdowns last year. And I think he can improve as a passer. And the Jets are doing for Wilson what we kind of wish the Bears would do for fields, and that's improve his offensive line, bring in some new weapons for him, make that offense a little bit better. Hopefully Wilson holds up his end of the bargain, bring in some new weapons for him make that offense a little bit better hopefully wilson

holds up his end of the bargain and he completes more passes downfield than he did last year he was actually pretty good in the intermediate area i think he completed like right around 61 percent of his passes i think that's the best of any rookie quarterback last year but he also had a lot of turnover worthy plays and just needs to refine his game a lot more. But I do think the Jets have the opportunity to do that, and they're trying. And that makes me kind of lean towards Zach Wilson over Mac because Mac's upside, I don't think it can touch any of the other quarterbacks that we've talked about so far, save for Davis Mills. I think Mills and Mac Jones have kind of the same upside, and I also wouldn't put it

past Houston, rather. If they saw a quarterback that they liked in the draft, they've got all that draft capital, they take a chance on a quarterback after round one. Yeah, I think just talking to people around the league, especially at the Combine, if Davis Mills was in this draft class, he would be the first quarterback taken,

just based on what he showed you in his limited time at Stanford prior to injury. You know, his, his potential I don't think was necessarily factored in as much because of some of the things that they saw in his final season at Stanford. But that's just some people, you know, obviously you like Davis Mills and, you know, you're playing the results card of how he performed in his rookie season. I'm sure factoring in that as well for Wilson, we know the Jets seem like they're going to definitely invest capital, as you guys have said. The 10th overall pick is well documented in a lot of mock drafts

that they might be looking at a wide receiver there. So that'll be fun to see if they do that. Maybe not so much fun for Elijah Moore, but could be good for Zach Wilson. And again, Mac Jones, they'd bring in Devontae Parker, so we'll see what happens there. So there's kind of a look at your younger quarterbacks. Want to take one look at an older quarterback here and that's Matt Ryan. So he switched teams. He goes from the Falcons to the Colts.

The consensus ranking has him at 22. So still in the range as a starting quarterback here for super flex and two quarterback leagues. Heath, you have him as the 32nd ranked quarterback. So I know you're factoring in probably some backup quarterbacks, at least I'll assume maybe one or two. But in terms of starters, he would be the worst starting quarterback for dynasty purposes moving forward. Is that the case?

I think it might be. I don't really view this move to Indianapolis as one that's like it's great for his career as maybe he can go to the playoffs and maybe he'll have some success in terms of winning games. But I don't think this is a particularly good place for fantasy value for a quarterback. He's 37 years old. We just saw this two years ago with Phillip Rivers. And Phillip Rivers had been significantly better in his final three years

before going to the Colts than Matt Ryan has been over the past three seasons. I don't think this is going to be a high-volume passing attack. He's obviously not going to do anything as a rusher. It's just hard for me with a guy who's going to be 37 years old. And I don't really believe that he has top 15 ability. I don't want that guy anywhere close to my, if I'm in a super flex league and somebody's willing to give me something for Matt Ryan, I am happy to do that. Dave Colts, you know, they've kind of revamped a lot of their draft with the Carson Wentz trade.

Still not a first round pick from acquiring Carson Wentz two years ago, but they end up with seven picks three in the first four rounds, five in the first five rounds. They could probably add a couple of wide receivers if they want to. We know that this is a defense that still needs to add some pieces but um i think you know if they're looking at it okay we have michael pitman um i spoke to their offense coordinator a couple weeks ago and he was saying you know don't discount some of the young guys i don't know exactly which young guys he's referring to maybe paris campbell finally has i think even younger than that like ashton Doolin and Michael Strong.

I was going to say, Doolin was the one that hopefully we'll take a step forward. But this receiving core is bad. And, you know, the tight end situation, they lose Jack Doyle, they bring back Molly Cox. It's still another position that they probably can add somebody there as well. But if they do kind of, you know, revamp this receiving core a little bit through the draft, does Matt Ryan have one or two good years left? Maybe not great not great years but good years because i think he'll play for another couple

seasons as a starter for the colts i agree with heath if i've got matt ryan in a super flex and someone's desperate for a quarterback and they're gonna flip me any almost any rookie pick for matt ryan i'm taking it this isn't the same situation for for Matt Ryan that he was in in Atlanta once upon a time where he's flinging the rock to Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley or even Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts. It's Pittman who's kind of like Pitts, and it's really nobody else. Paris Campbell has a hard time staying healthy. I love the guy, but I just don't know how many games he'll play.

Mo Alleycox might be given an opportunity, but he's been underwhelming. The unheralded guys that we talked about really have a lot to prove. And they still have Jonathan Taylor in the backfield, and that dude helped them win a lot of games last year. So I think you're going to see them continue to commit to the run. I bet you'll see Matt Ryan throw a lot of short passes, and they kind of go back in that direction that Phillip Rivers was in where they used Naheem Hines a little bit more.

It all equates to Matt Ryan maybe having three or four nice games next year. And then you don't even know if he's going to be there the year after that. Look at how quickly they change quarterbacks in Indianapolis. All it takes is for one guy in that building, the guy that, you know, has all the guitars and all the money to say, I don't like this quarterback. Let's go find somebody else. That's what happened this past offseason. Could happen next offseason. Matt Ryan doesn't have a lot of time left to be helpful for fantasy.

And you're probably not even going to draft him in a one QB dynasty startup. No, you wouldn't be drafting him there unless you're completely desperate. But still, we'll see what happens with his fantasy outlook for Superflex. This could end up being a bargain, you know, just for at least one year.

But yes, obviously, if somebody's giving you something significant in return, it's worth exploring trade because his time is certainly near an end. And as you said, Dave, the Colts changed quarterbacks very, very quickly. So Matt Ryan may not be the starter. We thought Carson Wentz would be their solution for the next several years. And that clearly did not work out. We're going to take a break right now. We come back and get into the running back rankings that we're looking at here from a Dynasty perspective. Heath's rankings compared

to the Fantasy Pros consensus rankings. We'll be back right after this. spending limit more cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days and the ability to reach further with access to over 1400 airport lounges worldwide redefine possible with business platinum that's the powerful backing of american express terms and conditions apply visit amex.ca slash business platinum i was getting to the running backs here now. So let's start with Nick Chubb. So a little bit more of a veteran guy. And we talked about this a little bit.

He's done fantasy football today in five. But Nick Chubb, you have him at 19. The fantasy pros consensus ranking is number 11. And it's fascinating what's happening in Cleveland because of the addition of Deshaun Watson, who we know doesn't have a track record of throwing to his running backs per se to the level of some other quarterbacks. But Nick Chubb may have a six-game window if there's a suspension for Deshaun Watson to still have the lead of this offense for the time being if Watson misses any time. Then when Watson comes back, is it Kevin Stefanski's offense or is it Deshaun Watson's offense and how they operate or is it a mixture of the two? And we see Nick Chubb left

out in the passing game. Kareem Hunt clearly still a factor as well and I know it surprised you it surprised me when you told me uh the age of Nick Chubb by comparison to some other running backs but uh Nick Chubb is somebody that you said if you can get a first round pick early in the first round you would be taking it for him based on what could happen maybe not necessarily 2022 but past the season because of his age and some factors that you're also looking at. Yeah, and the surprising one for me was that he's more than a year older than Saquon Barkley. I don't think Nick – everyone recognizes that aging running backs are cells, that you should not carry running backs to age 27 or 28 on your roster

because something's going to happen and they're going to hit the cliff. But then it's really hard to do that in practice. And we saw that with Derrick Henry over the last couple of years, people don't really want to trade Derrick Henry even after the injury. But Chubb's going to turn 27 in the middle of this season. He's been a low end number one running back. All my, all my rankings are PPR based. So in full PPR, he's been a low-end number one running back. I don't think he's going to be quite that good this year because of Watson. I think Watson's going to hurt his total rush attempts, and he doesn't do enough in the passing game to be able to withstand that. So I think he's more

of a number two running back who probably has two, you should probably expect two good seasons left. I'd gladly take a first round pick for that. But not in the back end, though, is what you said. Not a back end, no. It's got to be top four or top two. I mean, top two is easy to say, right? Because if you're replacing him with Brees Hall or Ken Walker,

that sounds great. But I don't think anybody's doing that. So then how far back in round one would you be willing to go if you've got Chubb? Well, I think before you answer that, Heath, the format matters because if it's a super flex league, you'd be looking at a quarterback potentially for Nick Chubb. You take that.

And again, one of these receivers is going to end up in a pretty good spot, so maybe one of those receivers factors in as well. Yeah, I'd probably take a top five pick for him before the NFL draft. And I'd say after the NFL draft, I would not be surprised if there's five or six guys, but also think, I mean, we talked about this on FFT and five, it really, really depends on where you are in terms of your team. If you're competing right now, then you're probably not selling Nick Chubb for draft picks. You're probably trying to do some sort of trade for a wide receiver or for assets if you're getting rid of him, or you're just holding him trying to win the league this year, and that's not a terrible plan either.

But if you're anywhere close to a rebuild, or if you're not quite sure and you're stuck in the middle, then yeah, I'd be pretty happy to get a top five or top six pick for him. And I do think I wouldn't hesitate to ask for a first plus something because obviously I'm the low guy on him. I'm saying I would take these things, but he's currently the number 11 consensus running back. You should get more than a first round pick for that guy. Yeah. It's a, it's really interesting when you start to get to this point in your career. And I think you said it best. If you are a contending team, hard to get rid of him. If you're a rebuilding team, you're going to ask for a lot in return for him. And I think you said it best. If you are a contending team, hard to get rid of him. If you're a rebuilding team, you're going to ask for a lot in return for him.

And you may not get the bounty that you're hoping for. So he could be just one of those catch 22 type of running backs that you got to make sure you get the right deal to sell them and the right deal to, you know, certainly buy him hopefully get one more good season, if not a couple more. So he keeps himself in great shape. Just like to see him a little bit more involved in the passing game.

And certainly would have been great if creamareem Hunt decided a couple years ago not to resign with the Cleveland Browns. He wouldn't have him coming off the field in certain situations. We spent some time talking about David Montgomery yesterday from a ranking standpoint in terms of where he stacks up for the 2022 campaign. But beyond that, if you still love him a lot moving forward, he's the 10th running back for you. So clearly ahead of Nick Chubb. Consensus has him behind Nick Chubb. He is the 16th running back ranked according to the Fantasy Pros consensus. So David Montgomery, again, Dave said it, this Bears situation could be terrible.

Is it terrible for David Montgomery as well? This is so interesting to me because he's basically, over the last two seasons, last year he was four-tenths of a point behind Nick Chubb. Two years ago on a per-game basis, he was two-tenths of a point better than Nick Chubb. Let's just call it a draw over the last two seasons between David Montgomery and Nick Chubb. Nobody views them like that. But also, Montgomery's almost two full years younger than Nick Chubb. And somehow Chubb is viewed as a much better asset

in terms of dynasty. So yes, I don't think anybody would have a hard time trading Nick Chubb for David Montgomery in dynasty, and I'd prefer to have Montgomery. You're probably getting something in addition to Montgomery if you trade away Chubb. They've been the same guy over the last two years, and Montgomery's two years younger.

So I've got David Montgomery in our dynasty league and I know that you've got a lot of, I've got a lot. I don't have Chubb, but I've got Montgomery. Okay. And if I offered him to you for one of your two first round picks, what would you say? Well, I believe my two first round picks are first and second. So I would not trade the first or the second pick for David Montgomery. I would, I would give up a late first for David Montgomery,

especially in that league. Um, and I might have one of those as well, but, um, are we making a deal right now? I, I,

well, I want to see, I want to see if we can like a month ago. Why the hell not? I'm, I'm always looking to make a move, but, but I, I want to see if we can. Like a month ago. Why the hell not? I'm always looking to make a move. But I like that number two pick. Unless you want to give me number one, I would certainly take that.

But you just said you wouldn't give number two for David Montgomery. And now I have to play my hand here because I'm not allowed to lie on the podcast. I'm nervous that a bad year for David Montgomery could send his value into a tailspin. He's in a contract here. I know the age is great. If he doesn't have a bang-up season, how are teams going to view him? How are the Bears going to view him? Who's going to pay him north of $8 million a year to be their feature back? Is he going to end up being in a timeshare situation as soon as next year? This is the make or break year for david montgomery last year he finished 15th and per game in ppr year before that he was top 10 but now you're putting him on chicago

their offensive line i don't think it's going to be any better than it was last year their offense certainly is going to be much better their Their defense has some serious holes in it. I don't know how effective Montgomery will be. And I almost look at my rankings in redraft, and I think it's just way too high for Montgomery. So I'm kind of nervous about him, which is why if I could turn him somehow into the second overall pick, I'd be thrilled to do it.

But I know I'd have to throw in something with him in order to get that high and to get you off of one of Hall or Walker in this year's draft. So would you take a second pick? Heath, would you give up the second pick for Montgomery and a second-round pick? I don't think I would. No. But I would – I mean, there's a a certain point i think there's a point in the first round and it's not very early in the first round where you move up but i mean that that's

the thing that we should always say this when we're talking about our league and our trades because i do think it makes a significant difference it's a 14 team league yeah so and one and one quarterback so that that's the first pick in the second round which i think i also have um is the fifth you got you you actually have three first round picks well there we go so what's the third one where is it uh it's whatever coca's cabana pick was somewhere around 10 then okay so dave would you do it no i don't i at this second i wouldn't i'd have to really look at my top 10 rookies and say all right are all these guys better than david montgomery and listen as much as worried as i am about the downside for david montgomery

i can't rule out the fact that it's possible that he still comes through for a good year and that teams, including the Bears, look at him and say, yes, he can. He's young enough and he's got enough try on the tire and he's proven enough that he can be a workhorse back in the NFL. So it's within the realm of possibility that he's still a capable, useful, starting fantasy running back next year and the year after at minimum. We could see a situation. So Heath, I'm assuming because you both tanked last year. Heath a little bit more effectively than Dave, but Dave did a good job getting some draft picks. In terms of getting those first two picks, I'm assuming you're thinking Brees Hall and somebody else at this point, correct? If Brees Hall ends up like what happened to Derrick Henry when he got drafted,

right, where he ended up, you know, starting his career behind, you know, somebody like DeMarco Murray. If Brees Hall goes to a situation like that and Ken Walker, let's say, is your second favorite guy or you want to get the top wide receiver. Let's say that the Packers draft somebody. It's Sky Moore, let's say, you's say that the, the Packers draft somebody it's Sky Moore. Let's say, you know, somebody who's not, we were not thinking as one of the top three or four guys, you know, so it's not one of the Ohio state guys, not Drake Long.

And it's not Jamison Williams, though. They just, they pull an Eagles and they take Jalen Rager in the first round over Justin Jefferson. Um, but that situation looks the best, you know, so all of a sudden the guys you're looking at at the top, it just doesn't feel as great as it did a year ago. Right. Are you still feeling like you would rather have that player than David Montgomery? Oh, I think there's a chance that I wouldn't.

I actually wrote about this because Hall is so similar as a prospect numbers wise to Jonathan Taylor. Their size speed score is almost identical. They ran the same 40. And I wrote about how everybody had Jonathan Taylor, I think, as the number one running back until Clyde went to the Chiefs. And Taylor was in a committee with Marlon Mack and Naheem Hines. I'm going to try not to make that same mistake. I'm just going to take Brees Hall number one overall and not worry about it. But yeah, I do think there's a chance.

That type of messy landing spot situation where our favorite guys end up in bad spots and the great spots go to guys we weren't excited about is a worst-case scenario for anyone who stockpiled 2022 picks, and I'm really hoping it doesn't happen. What's the worst landing spot for Breesaw? The first thing I thought of was Denver because he ends up with another young runner.

What's the worst. For Breesall Tampa. Behind Leonard Fournette for the first year. Right. And then everybody's like dynasty wise, you know, like if he ends up behind like a young or in a, in a tandem with a young running back, you know, like one guy, we're talking about here, Michael Carr, like the Jets decide that they're going to take Breesall in the second

round, you know, like one of those situations where it's two young guys that are going to cannibalize each other for the next several years. Like that's just awful. Yeah, bad team with a young guy. Like Dan Campbell's not sure DeAndre Smith is more than a pass catching back, so he drafts Brees Hall for early downs. That would be miserable. How about the Ravens aren't sure about which running backs

are going to be healthy for them. Right, yep. Yep, I can see that. Let's not do this. How about the Ravens aren't sure about which running backs are going to be healthy for them? Right. Yep. Yep. Let's not do this. Let's just go ahead and draft him. Buffalo. Use your suddenly. Suddenly, Brees Hall in Houston isn't that bad of an idea.

Brees Hall in Houston would be good. I think he'd be OK. Yeah. I mean, look, you know, they're they're building towards something. It's not like they're going to be this terrible forever. At least that's the hope. All right, Josh Jacobs, next guy we're looking at here. Heath, you have him at 13, so you're higher than the consensus.

Consensus has him at 19. Jacobs' new coach in Josh McDaniels seems to have the same competition with Kenyon Drake staying in Las Vegas. Better offense. Devontae Adams is not going to make that offense worse. We'll see what happens with the offensive line there for the Raiders, but, you know, hopefully at least on par from what we saw a year ago. So Josh Jacobs, the guy we've spent some time talking about, you know,

can he continue to have his role in the passing game like we saw last season with Adams there, with Drake back? What will Josh McDaniels do in terms of carrying the Patriots offense over to Las Vegas? Will he have more of just a pass-catching back there? And does Josh Jacobs have the long-term appeal that we have been waiting for for the last couple of seasons? Last season was nice,

but I think we all have higher expectations even than that. So Josh Jacobs, still somebody you view as a borderline number one guy. Yes, and this is another one of my favorite crazy age things. This one actually came from Twitter yesterday in response to my Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb tweet, Josh Jacobs is 26 days older than Najee Harris. Wow. He's just turned 24 years old.

And I think it seems pretty obvious that like his perception, at least right now is that he is one of the running backs that, that NFL teams and hopefully Josh McDaniels really thinks matters. I think he's going to score a bunch of touchdowns on this Raiders team. The passing downs thing is a bit of a concern. I more view him as a high-end number two running back who should still have a three- to four-year window. And so that allows him to stay right in that borderline top 12 conversation.

I have a hard time going back and forth between him and Montgomery, and this year we'll probably flesh that out. Dave, who do you like better, Jacobs or Montgomery? I like Jacobs better for Dynasty. He's younger just by a little bit. He's in a better offense. He's going to be given the platform. As the lead back, I don't think he's going to be a three-down guy.

You just look at Josh McDaniel's track record, and I think it's safe to assume that they will have somebody, whether it's Drake or somebody else, work in on passing down situations. That's going to hurt Jacobs, obviously, because he's not going to get 40, 50 catches. Like we think he has the potential to get like we saw him get in 2021. But I think he has a good year. And I think he finds a way to keep that type of a role as a first and second

down back again for a long time contract year just like david montgomery but he's younger he's better at least in terms of just running the ball and having speed i know the injuries are a factor as well i i just think he's in a better spot i'd rather have jacobs and dynasty i'd rather have jacobs also but it is close and you know they're they're both getting to the point where we may see them on new teams soon. So we'll see what happens there. But you've got to feel a little bit better about where the Raiders are headed right now as opposed to where the Bears are headed.

And Jacobs, everything around him is getting better. Everything around, you know, Montgomery, not necessarily improving yet, aside from maybe the head coach. And so hopefully, you know, Matt Iberflues and Luke Getze, as you mentioned, Dave, helps things for Montgomery. And Josh McDaniels doesn't necessarily ruin things for Jacobs, but could see a huge spike in touchdowns. We know they like to have a physical goal line presence,

at least based on what we saw in New England. And so hopefully that continues to be Josh Jacobs and not Kenyon Drake. And a lot of what Jacobs did as a pass catcher last season came when Darren Waller was missing time, when Drake was out. The receiving core was not clearly the same as what it is right now. So Jacobs in a very interesting season, but hopefully just the overall improvements for the Raiders with the addition of Devontae Adams helps them moving forward and keeps them as a borderline number one guy here. The guy you have ranked right after Josh Jacobs, the last guy we'll talk about today, is Michael Carter. And this one's fascinating to me, Heath, because I still think we're going to see a committee for the Jets.

I love Michael Carter's talent. I think he's got a chance to be special. If you go back to a lot of what the shows we were doing this time last year, Emory Hunt, who loves dissecting running backs, former college running back himself, he thought Michael Carter was the best running back in this class. So still he has the potential to be that. I don't know if we necessarily agree with it at the time. I know I didn't, but I could see where Emory was coming from in terms of what the upside is for Michael Carter.

And we saw flashes of it last year, but unfortunately it came when it was with different quarterbacks. As I alluded to before, when Zach Wilson missed time, Mike White, Josh Johnson, they were much better for Michael Carter's fantasy outlook, mostly in the passing game.

So they bring back Tevin Coleman. That seems like a win for Michael Carter, but are they going to add somebody else to this backfield? They continue to, you know, make it more of a committee. Can Michael Carter ascend to the heights you have him at the fantasy pros consensus ranking has him at 23 you're almost 10 spots higher than that at 14 yeah and a lot of this has to do with youth a lot of this has to do

though with his ability in the passing game zach wilson did throw to his running backs a little bit more in his second stint as a starter after the injury that he did early in the year and a lot of times we see young quarterbacks as they mature, even from that first to second year and then second to third year, learn the check down, learn to get through their progressions quicker so they get to those reads. So I would expect Wilson's target share to running backs goes up. Carter has excellent skills in the passing game, averaged nine yards per catch last year and was used for a short period of time as a feature back. He didn't play more than 52% of the snaps the first five weeks,

and then he had a stretch where it was 72, 70, 58. It was really, and then he got hurt. And so it's going to come down to can he be a feature, maybe not feature back, 1A, and hold up to that 16, 17 touches a game over a full season and then how much is zach wilson going to throw to him but he's so young and i don't unless they really add somebody significant i don't think there's anybody that takes him off the field unless the jets are just trying to rest him there's not another really talented back on the team day last year you traded

in our rookie draft up to get michael carter um so i want your assessment on the team. Dave, last year you traded in a rookie draft up to get Michael Carter. So I want your assessment on the trade that you made. If you're happy with that move, I don't remember what you gave up to get him. But also is he closer to David Montgomery and Josh Jacobs, or does he still have a ways to go to catch those guys? Because he, again, has them ranked almost back to back to back. The nice thing about Michaelael carter is that the the role that i kind of mentioned for josh jacobs where he's like a running downs back he i don't

think carter is exactly that i think the safe way to kind of handicap him is as a as a part-time 1a type of running back and we already mentioned the jets offensive line getting better they're doing what they can to help the whole offense by improving the offensive line. And Carter's got time. He's got at least three more years in New York. Hopefully they are good, productive years. Hopefully he takes a step forward. I don't see Carter becoming a dominant fantasy running back, playing three downs, catching 50 passes per game. But I do see him as the type of guy, even though he's a little short little short he's stocky he can work at the goal line he can be a top 15 type of fantasy running back each of the next three years i think that's well within his upside i traded up i moved up i want to say

either two spots or four spots and i gave up gabriel davis Michael Carter. And that trade looked great until the end of last season. And now I'm sitting here going, man, I wish I had Gabe Davis on my team. He's going to be awesome in Buffalo. But I'm always interested in acquiring at least one running back in my rookie-only drafts, whether I need one or not. And Carter was the one that kind of fell in our rookie draft. And so I jumped at the chance to get him, and I definitely liked him coming out of North Carolina. And I like him moving forward. I think the case

could be made that he's a safer dynasty fantasy running back than both Jacobs and Montgomery, but I would couch it and put them right in between the two, just because I think Jacobs can have a good year this year and he can parlay that into his next contract. I'm worried about Montgomery, what happens to him this year, and then what happens after that. I don't have to worry about that with Carter. Carter might have a bad year, and then he's in a timeshare again in 2023. But he's definitely somebody that's got talent, seems to be in a, I don't want to say a great spot.

I would say Jacobs is in a great spot. Carter's in a good spot. And so with that type of upside that I've got for him as a quality number two fantasy running back, I think I'd rather have him than Montgomery. Do you remember who was taken with the pick you traded away? No, but I'm sure you're going to tell me, and I'm sure I'm going to be upset about it.

No, I don't remember. I have the four picks afterwards, but I don't know which pick it was you traded away. You know it was whoever R.J. 14th. Oh, it would have been 14th? Yeah, you traded with Trey Lance. Trey Lance. Trey Lance and Gabriel Davis

for Michael Carter. I'm trying to see. I'm looking up the transactions to see if you gave up more than that. I don't think I did. I think it was just Gabriel Davis. So Davis in the 10th pick davis in the 14th pick to move up to 10 right i won the league two years ago so it had to have been the 14th pick and i think it was rj and rj was a was a big gabe davis guy before last year right and yeah and he's a big bills fan on top of it so it was it was a double winner for him i didn't

like giving up gabe davis but that's how badly i wanted to get a running back in that draft class last year and i like carter let's see jock would have been and i liked trey lance too but now i'm i'm nervous about trey lance just because i'm not sure if he's going to develop quick enough and And so, like, with Justin Fields, I think he could develop quick enough. I just don't like what's around him. I love what's around Trey Lance. I just don't know if he's going to be able to take big steps and be a fantasy gargantuan

with his rushing and passing totals and his tall, lanky body and awesome coach and cool hair. Yep. You also gave up a sixth-round pick, too. So you and awesome coach and cool hair. Yep. Just Gabe. You also gave up a sixth round pick too. So you gave up. Oh, crap. Gabriel Davis. Now the trade sucks.

The 10th pick. I'm sorry. Gabriel Davis, the 14th pick. And he's sixth rounder. Here it is. Here's the whole trade. You gave up a fourth round pick, 45th overall. First round pick, 14th overall. Gabriel Davis. You got back a sixth round pick. Excuse me. You got the fourth round pick, 45th overall, first round pick, 14th overall, Gabriel Davis.

You got back a sixth round pick, excuse me. You got the 10th pick and a sixth round pick. Oh, I'm sure that sixth round pick was amazing. Let's see. The fourth round pick, 45th overall. Is that Montez Sweat? Is. I think 45th overall will be the third pick in round four.

I'll give a code word for everybody who listens to the end of the podcast and then we'll know who's paying attention to this amazing Larry Roundtree. Nice. Do I even still have Roundtree on my team? I have to look at my team. I don't even know if I still have. I looked at it while you were talking, and I agree for the most part on Michael Carter.

But your roster, Heath, you have so many young wide receivers that if they hit, they're going to be really special, man. It's fun. It's fun what you did last year. You got Devontae Smith, Rondell Moore, and Elijah Moore. Still drives me nuts that I was so – so we did our rookie draft before Robbie Anderson's contract extension. I was so sold Terrace Marshall was going to be good for the Panthers for years to come.

I took him and Elijah Moore. Huge mistake there. I took Kadarius Toney over Mun Monroe St. Brown in that same draft. Yeah, but you can't really fault you for that one. I mean, mine was terrible. You're you're running backs though.

You might want to just take a word, no matter where Brees Hall and Ken Walker end up, I'm just taking with you for two picks. You're running backs. So Von Ahmed, Justin, Jamar Jefferson, Carlos Hyde,

Chris Evans, Darrington Evans, Khalil Herbert. Whew. You got DJ Dallas. I do not have a starting running back. You got Marlon Mack.

He just went to Houston. He might be their week one starter. He might be their week one starter. There we go. All right. Code word.

I believe there was a question. We should have more dynasty, more FFT and fives on our dynasty trade week one starter. There we go. All right. Code word. We should have more FFT and fives on our dynasty trade proposals. I'm going to make Heathen off. Oh yeah, that'll be amazing. We want people to listen to that. We'll talk about it tomorrow. All right. I think that wraps up our little conversation here on dynasty

quarterbacks and running backs and Heathen rankings compared to the fantasy pros rankings. On tomorrow's show, we're going to look at some running backs and Heath's rankings compared to the Fantasy Pro's rankings. On tomorrow's show, we're going to look at some running backs that are in new offensive systems, some new play callers, guys that have changed teams, or guys that have new coaches. So we'll get into some more conversations about running backs there as well. Thanks for listening to Fantasy Football Today. Remember, download it wherever

podcasts are found. Share the Early Edge podcast as well, wherever podcasts are found. For Dave, for Heath, I'm Jamie. Thanks for listening and watching Fantasy Football Today.