Fantasy Football Today - Dynasty Talk! Buy Low, Sell High, Rookie Rankings (05/11 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: May 11, 2021

We've got another great guest on today to talk dynasty! Matt Price of Dynasty League Football shares his insights on this rookie class and the NFL veterans you should be trying to trade for. Get Matt...'s thoughts on the 2021 NFL Draft (7:10), a rookie who fell in the draft that he is high on (8:00), the Javonte Williams debate (10:00) and Matt's primary job as a zoo keeper (11:30)! Yes, we have Fantasy Football talk AND animal stories on today's show! ... News and notes (17:04) as we talk Tebow and more, and then we get into Matt's rookie rankings for dynasty leagues (18:30) starting with Ja'Marr Chase and Kyle Pitts. Where does Pitts rank at the TE position? Is he ahead of Travis Kelce? Then we'll keep going tier-by-tier in Matt's rankings ... Which players are Matt and Heath hoping to draft in the second and third rounds of their rookie-only drafts (39:30)? When should Mac Jones and Zach Wilson be drafted? And we finish with dynasty buy lows (45:30), sell highs (56:10), Twitter polls (1:05:00) and awesome zoo stories from Matt ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Want in the Podcast League? Try our NFL Draft contest! https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/permalink/1115877195573244/ 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:59 BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. Tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.
Starting point is 00:01:21 Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. All right, what's up, everybody? Welcome to the show. It is a Dynasty episode. We've got another great industry guest joining us today. I am Adam Azer, joined by Heath Cummings, who is having a rough morning. First of all, he selected the wrong thing in the Twitter poll. He clicked on the wrong name in one of my Twitter polls.
Starting point is 00:01:46 And you can't get that back. You cannot get that vote back. So that was bad. But also, he just found out that he made this guest, Matt Pricewell, introduced to you soon, wake up mega early because he didn't know he was on the West Coast. So rough morning for you, Heath. Really missed opportunity for you, Adam. I thought you were going to take a jab at my Celtics. And I have an Acer-level bad sports take whenever, like
Starting point is 00:02:10 later in the show, because people don't care to hear about that now. What happened to the Celtics? Jalen Brown, that thing? Jalen Brown's out. They're in the play-in game. It doesn't really matter. And my bad take is that the Celtics should tank the rest of their season, including the two play-in games, to get a better draft pick. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 00:02:26 That's very Doug Peterson of you, and you're probably right. Let's bring on our guest. He's Matt Price of Dynasty League Football. He's a senior writer for Dynasty League Football, and he's the co-host of the DLF Dynasty podcast. And he is a good sport, joining us super early in the morning for him out on the West Coast. Matt, welcome to the show.
Starting point is 00:02:46 Thanks for having me, Heath and Adam. I'm really excited to be here. Love the show and excited to talk some Dynasty, especially rookies, man. Yeah, thank you. And I love all the content you guys create. And I was in a short-lived Dynasty League with the DLF guys and finished in second place. So, woo! And that was one year of a Dynasty League. We were
Starting point is 00:03:07 unable to keep it going. It's challenging. You know, Dynasty Leagues are challenging. You've got to get buy-in. How many are you in? And, you know, if people out there want to start one, talk about the commitment that it takes. You've got to make sure you get the right people that are willing to keep it going.
Starting point is 00:03:23 It really is all about the group and, you know, those of us that put out content, we have it a little bit easier because we can kind of pick and choose our league mates. I play with a very, I wouldn't say a very select group, and I do have people that come in new. But we have a little bit broader reach so we can really handpick the group of people that we're going to play with. It's obviously a little more difficult for just your average Joe out there on Twitter following all of us. But there are resources. The Dynasty League football forums are a great place to go to to find people that have been
Starting point is 00:03:55 you can tell that have been around the block for a while. And those people that have more experience are typically the ones that are going to stick around a little bit longer. But yeah, if it's just a bunch of people that you are not, you have no nothing about, then it can be difficult. Another good resource is safeligs.com. Our buddy Scott Fish, he's the commissioner of those. I'm sure everybody, I don't really need to introduce Scott Fish, but if you want a legit commissioner service, then that's a great place to go as well. And you know that you're going to get taken care of there. And how many dynasty?
Starting point is 00:04:25 It's really nice of Matt for you to not tell Adam that that dynasty league is actually still going. They just kicked Adam out of the, out of the league. It was short lived for him. And I'm in, I'm in, I'm in 15 and I commissioned,
Starting point is 00:04:39 I'm a commissioner for four of them. So it's, it's, it's definitely, it's definitely a lot of work, but it's very rewarding. And I've been playing Dynasty for more than 20 years now at this point, I think. So I come up with crazy league ideas. I have a few charity-based leagues that are called the Red List Leagues, where we donate
Starting point is 00:04:59 about 30% of the money every year to different wildlife conservation organizations. And those are what we call double copy leagues. I don't know if you're familiar with those, but basically, let's say there's 24 teams in the league, then there are two copies of every single player. So it allows you to have more trade partners. So like, let's say I want to go trade for Najee Harris, right? This person says, no, I'm not trading them for anything. You can go to the next guy that has them and send them a similar offer. And then sometimes that even spurs on
Starting point is 00:05:26 more activity in the league because what you see one person make a trade for a player and somebody else is like, oh, I would pay that for that particular player. So all of a sudden it can set off these chain reactions of trades and kind of increase the activity in the league. That is so interesting, a double copy league. So do you have any specific memories
Starting point is 00:05:44 of playing a team that had a lot of the same players that were on your team oh my gosh we have five of the same starters yeah it does work out that way uh sometimes where the league where you meet a team in the playoffs that has you know yours like like four or five of your 10 starters or whatever are in common so you're really playing like a five-man fantasy game at that point. So yeah, that definitely happens. Yeah. Heath, you can correct me if I'm wrong here, but I don't want to intimidate people too much
Starting point is 00:06:11 on Dynasty Leagues. There's one good thing about Dynasty Leagues. If you are in a lot of them, or if you're in a lot of Fantasy Leagues and you want to start doing a Dynasty League, I think they require less time during the season, less, the waiver wire specifically, because the rosters are so deep.
Starting point is 00:06:26 So you're probably not spending so much time on Tuesday night making waiver claims, which can be quite a chore. If you're in a lot of fantasy leagues, it could take you well over an hour to make your waiver claims. The dynasty leagues for me are the ones that take the least amount of time. Fair. I think that can be fair depending on like there's a wide range of roster requirements and stuff like that and if anything like you kind of if you're in a league where you've got 40 roster spots and you're not really changing out that much for need in a specific week you are still trying to find somebody that's going to help you a month from now or a year from now or two years from now on the waiver wire so like the thing that i've moved towards because i i think i don't even
Starting point is 00:07:09 know actually how many leagues i have i i was able in january to walk away from like three and i was so proud of myself and i've added three since then um but the last three i've added have been actually dynasty best ball leagues and the reason because like and two of two of those don't even have weekly waivers like your roster is your roster going into week one so that's that's a way
Starting point is 00:07:36 that I can add more leagues and still keep my sanity okay well we are going to talk about Matt's rankings we got some Twitter polls kind of gauge. I wanted to gauge where people are on some of the top running backs and some of the top wide receivers, not just the rookies, but comparing, would you rather have Najee Harris or Dalvin Cook in a dynasty league? You know, with the age difference being about three years,
Starting point is 00:07:58 those types of questions, would you rather have Devante Adams or Jamar Chase? So, you know, we'll, we'll get into some of those Twitter polls that I posted today, this morning. Some buy lows and sell highs in Dynasty Leagues. If we have time, we'll try to get to your emails. I failed on that yesterday. Probably going to fail on that today. FantasyFootball at CBSi.com, but we will dedicate some time this week to your emails and your
Starting point is 00:08:18 Apple Podcast questions, so please keep them coming. Matt, what did you think about the NFL draft, just in general, in terms of its impact in fantasy you know now that i've settled and marinated on a little bit i feel a lot better about it at least in terms of fair fantasy purposes right uh you know during the draft most of the landing spots were kind of disappointing you know i feel like a bunch of them landed in places where we're going to have questions especially with uh we uh, we'll get into it, but outside of the top four to five
Starting point is 00:08:47 players in a, in a one quarterback league, you know, there's, there's just questions everywhere for me, but the more and more you look at it, you know, they, they do have these question marks, but it is, it does, it does start to feel a little bit deeper. I think you can get down into the late end of the first round in a, in a rookie draft, you know, early second round pick and still have players that you feel reasonably good about. They're definitely going to have question marks deal still, but the longer I've thought about it, the better I feel about it. If that makes sense. Yeah. Was there a rookie that went later than you thought that you really like? Yeah, I would say, um, Diami Brown is, it was one I could, I could throw out there. You know, he was, he was at one point in the off season, he was up to like wide receiver six for me. Uh, and he definitely went later in the draft. I don't have his exact draft pick off the top of my head, but, you know, landed in a good spot where he's going to be across from a player that we already know is kind of the alpha one. And he has Brian Fitzpatrick who's going to throw the ball all over the field.
Starting point is 00:09:45 So, Diamond Brown averaged over 20 yards per catch in college. So, if he can be that deep threat and that, that kind of that, that DGAF guy, as it were for, for Ryan Fitzpatrick,
Starting point is 00:09:55 then I think that could work out pretty well. Yeah. He went 82nd overall to Washington. And I think he averaged 20 yards per catch every year in college. Very consistently. Impressive. Yeah. And there was first round buzz on him.
Starting point is 00:10:08 Who's that one player that might sneak into the first round? Javante Williams got a lot of buzz and Deami Brown got a little buzz as well out of UNC. Heath, how about you? Was there a rookie that went later than you thought that you really like? Yeah. I don't know that I can really say that right now just because i do think draft capital matters a lot but i will say like the thing the main thing and we talked about it a little bit already and i wonder matt's take on this like i thought the biggest takeaway from this draft was
Starting point is 00:10:36 we thought this running back class was weak and the nfl liked it less than we did. Like, it's just there are situations where guys like Michael Carter or Trey Sermon could end up in a good role to where we like them for a couple years, but I just don't know that there's more than two, two and a half meaningful
Starting point is 00:11:00 starters for fantasy purposes at running back. Yeah, Matt, where are you at on Javante Williams? Because that's, that's the one, I mean, people seem pretty on board with Harris and ETN, but that's the one that I think causes a lot of split.
Starting point is 00:11:12 So Javante Williams being drafted early in the second round by the Denver Broncos. And what do you think? I mean, I would have liked it better if he went to Miami, but I don't think it's a terrible, excuse me, a terrible spot.
Starting point is 00:11:24 Melvin Gordon was, you Gordon was serviceable in 2020, and he'll probably be serviceable again, but Javante Williams played in a committee in college with Michael Carter, so he's not going to be a stranger to that. I think it's going to be pretty clear out of the gate that at this point in his career, I don't think Melvin Gordon does necessarily anything better than Javante Williams will be. Probably pass blocking. He's got more experience than that, right? And
Starting point is 00:11:47 he's a bit of an underrated receiver, but Javante Williams can do those things too. So at the beginning, I'm sure it'll be a committee, but if Melvin Gordon slips up at all, if he has any kind of nagging injury, you could definitely see Javante Williams taking over there. I do think he's a bit of a, you know, about maybe a half a tier to a full tier below, uh, ETN and Harris, but I still think he's a fine pick, especially in the middle of one quarterback rookie drafts. Looking at your rankings. And he's, and he's right. He's the last one that we really care about. We can talk about Michael Carter and Dre Sermon and the other guys, but those three are really the only ones
Starting point is 00:12:21 we're going to care about for fantasy, uh, at least this season, I think. Okay. I'm looking at your tiers right now and your rankings, and there's somebody in the Javante Williams tier, which is the third tier, that is interesting, that I had not seen this high. So I look forward to talking about that. But actually, I have to ask you about your main job, okay?
Starting point is 00:12:43 When you're not talking Dynasty, you are a zookeeper. Is that right? Yeah, I am. Okay. So what exactly, give me the day-to-day operations of a zookeeper. I mean, it's, it's in charge of everything for, for animal husbandry and healthcare, everything from feeding and cleaning to training for medical procedures, taking animals to the hospital for medical procedures, doing public interactions, presentations, and training sessions and things like that. So basically anything you can think about to do with a zoo animal. And for me, it's a wide variety. I work on a team that has everything from polar bears to the smallest gazelle in the world, excuse me, the smallest
Starting point is 00:13:20 antelope in the world. So it really runs the gamut. And I could be working with the largest land carnivore in the world, or I could be working with the smallest herbivore in the world. So it's a pretty wide variety of stuff I get to work with. The amount of stories that you must have. Yeah, absolutely. I don't even know where to begin. You should do a podcast about this now. Probably. Do you want a quick story? Oh, yes. It doesn't even have to be that quick. Go ahead. We were a few years ago, a buddy of mine, we were at the, I think the Holiday Bowl. We were watching a football game and he turned over to me and said, how many people in this stadium do you think also work with polar bears and lions? And we were like,
Starting point is 00:14:03 we're probably the only one, right? And then we took it further than that. I posted something like, how many people today had polar bear pee in their eye today? And I wonder how many people in the world had that in that specific day. When you think about the 7 billion people in the world, how many more people had that? And that came during a training session. We had a bear that had a a bit of uh a growth in her in her area in her in her region okay as it were so we had to train her to us to allow us to collect samples uh from that area and also apply like a topical medication and she didn't like the way i was i was touching that area i guess and uh she turned around and took a swipe and got some and she had just peed in that location so
Starting point is 00:14:45 of course i had didn't have a face shield on and got some of that right right in the eye oh my god just enough just another day at the day at the office just another day that is okay more more zookeeper questions later did you see the story about this leopard that is on the loose in china i haven't heard about that one i heard about the tiger that's on the loose in China? I haven't heard about that one. I heard about the tiger that's on the loose in Houston, though, apparently, that some private owner has. That's not good either. I just saw one by my house yesterday, yeah. Oh, wow.
Starting point is 00:15:12 What? Really? No. Oh, okay. It's just in Houston. Yeah. Authorities in eastern China are hunting for the last of three leopards that escaped from a safari park.
Starting point is 00:15:23 Oh, wow. So what do you do if an animal escapes? Well, I mean, hopefully it doesn't get off of zoo grounds. Like that's the first step is they shouldn't, first it shouldn't get out of its enclosure, its habitat, but it also should not get out of the entire zoo, right? So at that point, then you have, then I think local authorities do become involved.
Starting point is 00:15:42 Hopefully they do include the zoo because they're the ones that know the animals and they're the ones that are going to administer. Hopefully they're going to administer some, some sedatives so that we can safely recover the animal. But, you know, there are some animals that are on, I mean, I can go into so much. There are animals that are on, on the do not ask list in terms of like, if you can shoot to kill, if it's a dangerous animal the uh around people the animal is unfortunately always going to lose that situation
Starting point is 00:16:10 um but uh yeah i mean it they typically like especially if it's not a leopard if it's an animal like a like some hoof stock like a gazelle or an antelope or something they get out of the exhibit and they're like oh my gosh where am i where am i what is going on i don't know the surroundings i just want to get back in you find them like trying to figure out how to jump back in. But with a leopard or something like that, you definitely have to use some anesthesia and try to take it down with the tranquilizer dart or something. Uh, if you can avoid, you know, shooting the animal for, for real. Okay. Well, we'll, we'll get some more fun, uplifting stories. There were a lot of questions I could have asked, and I asked definitely the wrong one.
Starting point is 00:16:46 Listen, everybody, you got to know what's on CBS Sports HQ this week. CBS Sports HQ is your home to start your sports news day and make fun of the Celtics with live updates kicking off each morning at 8 a.m. Eastern. HQ is always your home ahead of the evening's action with live picks from the best analysts and cappers in the sports world each day at 6 p.m eastern on wednesday nfl experts will be breaking down the 2021 schedule we'll be doing
Starting point is 00:17:10 that on our podcast too and our cappers will be making preakness picks ahead of saturday's race so check out hq on your computer on cbssports.com or via the cbs sports app on your mobile phone or tv it's always free and it's always on. Heath, I did a fun game with my friends last weekend. At last minute, I assigned all of them and their spouses a Kentucky Derby horse and me and my spouse as well. And I won. I assigned all of the ones that had a shot to win and my horse won. But do you think I need need to seed the title because of the peds we actually were out to dinner um as a family and we all chose a horse um we were getting ready to watch and my wife won and i've already told her that she not only had to see her title but she
Starting point is 00:17:59 has been banned from future competition for choosing a horse that was dope okay then i will take it half that way i will give up the title but i'm not bad at myself from future competition for choosing a horse that was dopey. Okay, then I will take it half that way. I will give up the title, but I'm not banning myself from future competition. Heath, I want you to just give me your quick thoughts on the news and notes so we can get back to Dynasty. Jacksonville's going to sign Tim Tebow to play tight end. He's 33 years old, but they're talking about using him in different ways. Do you think Tim Tebow could actually be a goal line vulture? Let's get back to Dynasty.
Starting point is 00:18:26 It wouldn't shock me. It's all I'm saying. Yeah. I, I remember like, it seems like when I was on the fantasy baseball podcast, we used to have these conversations. Do you think Tim Tebow could do this?
Starting point is 00:18:38 Do you think Tim Tebow, like it's tight end. I think I saw that the, um, the betting markets have set his over-under for receiving yards this season at 12.5, and it's even money. So the most
Starting point is 00:18:51 likely scenario has to be that Tim Tebow doesn't play real football. But if he does, anything is possible. He's got that connection with Urban Meyer, and that seems to be as important, if not more important, than anything else.
Starting point is 00:19:08 Indianapolis is going to sign left tackle Eric Fisher to a one-year $9.4 million deal. They need to replace the retired Anthony Costanzo. This is a great signing of a veteran left tackle, but he did tear his Achilles in the AFC Championship game, and there's some question about whether or not Fisher will be ready for week one.
Starting point is 00:19:26 Yeah, I would be shocked, but I guess that's an a little easier injury for linemen than for running backs and receivers, but that's still at his age. Maybe he's just, he may be somebody that could help him in the second half though. And Falcons running back coach,
Starting point is 00:19:41 Desmond Kitching said it is basically said it's an open competition at running back. So we'll, we'll keep an eye on that. We'll see if they add anybody before the Eagles do. So that's all the Eagles do these days. All right, Matt, let's talk about your rankings for one quarterback league. You gave us some rankings for one quarterback dynasty leagues,
Starting point is 00:19:57 and it's just the rookies. And Jamar Chase and Kyle Pitts are in the top tier. So discuss. Yeah, I just think these are the two players that we... I mean, I'm sure if you want to nitpick, we can come up with question marks for them. But these two, I think far and away, are the players that are the most talented at their position
Starting point is 00:20:16 and that just feel the safest for Jamar Chase. It's been said a million times, one of the best prospects since Amari Cooper. There's not really any holes in his game. The only thing you can really nitpick is that we didn't see him in 2020, right? So is he the same player? It seems like he probably is. We know that wide receivers, especially if they produce when they are younger, then they are more likely to succeed in the NFL.
Starting point is 00:20:41 And he's reunited with his college quarterback. Sometimes I think that is overrated. Going back to, I don't remember when Andrew Luck drafted, they also drafted Kobe Fleener, and we thought, oh, Kobe Fleener reunited with Andrew Luck. It's going to be everything we thought it was going to be. But in this particular situation, I do think it will matter for these guys. It seems like more and more, at least I'd like to think,
Starting point is 00:21:04 that more and more of the NFL teams are starting to include their franchise quarterbacks in their decision-making process. So hopefully he had a bit of a say in that and getting chase on the team. And then with Kyle Pitts, I mean, he's, he's the best tight end prospect of, of, of ever that since I've been playing this game. Uh, and he walks into a situation where I just don't know what they're going to do. What are defenses going to do with that passing offense? You've got to have your two top corners probably on Julio if he's going to stick around, and Calvin Ridley in pits,
Starting point is 00:21:34 he's too fast for the linebackers. He's too big for the third corner and the safeties. So he's going to eat, I think. And another, another part of pits there is Matt Ryan has been leading the league in attempts basically for the last several years, 626 last season, past attempts, 608 or more in each of the last three seasons. And 197 targets last year went to Hayden purse and Russell gauge. So I know Julio missed about seven games. So that'll so that number will come down, but there's plenty of targets there for Kyle Pitts to succeed in year one, despite the stigma that tight ends take forever to produce. I think we have to get off of that with a guy like Pitts,
Starting point is 00:22:15 who is basically a receiver. The only designation there is that he is a tight end. And if we're going to treat him like a wide receiver that can come in and and produce right away and just ignore that tight end designation then i think we'll be pretty successful with him this season so you think he'll have a big rookie year you know big is big is strong uh but yeah i think i think basically if he comes out and and finishes as a top 12 top 10 tight end he's going to be the tight end one in Dynasty next season. He's 11 years younger than Travis Kelsey. George Kittle has, you know, some, some ability, some inability to stay healthy at times. So I just don't think there's much of a chance for failure
Starting point is 00:22:55 for Pitts at this point. And, you know, it's not really a big ass to finish as a back end tight end one, basically on a weekly basis, if you score a touchdown, you're a tight end one basically on a weekly basis if you score a touchdown you're a tight end one right so uh i think he can come in and be that that top 10 maybe even top eight or top six tight end in your one and and this i think like pitt's ranking amongst the tight ends is one of the highlights what i've said is we need to almost have two sets of rankings one for teams that are playing for a 2021 title and one for teams that are not yeah but like i agree with you completely i would not be surprised at all if he's the number one dynasty tight end at the end of this year i struggled with where he should be at the beginning of this year
Starting point is 00:23:35 um i've currently got a number three amongst the tight ends i've got a number three in my rookie rankings as well like it's funny because i noticed you had three tiers encompassing the first five players. Five of those six are in my top six, so there's not really much difference there. I kind of view them all as in a similar tier, but I do agree with you about Chase. He's the clear number one for me, unless you're playing in a super flex or a tight end premium. I think for me, it's a little bit of FOMO, I guess. It's a little bit of fear of missing out because we have pretty good wide receivers and running backs almost every single year. But how often do we get a tight end like this? It just doesn't happen. you know, that's the biggest positional difference-making, potentially the biggest difference-making player that we're going to have in this rookie draft, right? And if you had Travis Kelsey for all five years
Starting point is 00:24:33 where he finished five years straight as tight end one, I mean, that's worth a number one overall pick to me. So it's just like, I don't want to, you can say all of the things. It never works out for tight end year one, all of these things. But do you really want to miss out on a player like that when the other positions, you know, the running backs, in my opinion, are not up to snuff compared to the 2020 class. And Jamar Chase is at the wide receiver position. But after that, like, I don't see an argument for taking any of the other players over Pitts.
Starting point is 00:25:03 It's really interesting. So where would you guys take Pitts right now in a startup dynasty league if you're drafting all tight ends? Heath, give me your top four. I'm sorry, if I'm drafting all tight ends. Well, I'm saying that it's not just among, obviously he's the number one rookie tight end. Where is Kyle Pitts in our tight end dynasty rankings?
Starting point is 00:25:23 I've got him at number three. Behind. I have Kittle and Kelsey ahead of him but I basically have Kittle Kelsey Pitts Andrews and Waller all in a pretty similar range okay and Matt how about you I think I've got him one man I know that seems extreme but we're part of part of fantasy football and part of Dynasty especially is projecting forward. So where is that player going to be valued a year from now, right? So, you know, Kelsey cannot increase his value. George Kittle is kind of, you know, close to maxing out.
Starting point is 00:25:56 He could take over the number one position with another year. Even if Kelsey finishes the tight end one again, he's not going to increase his value, right? So especially early in Dynasty drafts where you're going to have to take a player like Kyle pitch you want to take players that are not that they're going to have a chance to increase in value uh at the same time the following year so that's why I have him number one is just because of of that projection and where I think he's going to be because he really he has to like get injured and miss the entire season or just completely fall on his face for him not to increase in value, in my opinion. OK, the next tier. So tier one is Jamar Chase and Kyle Pitts.
Starting point is 00:26:32 The next tier is just two players. They're both running backs and they went back to back of the NFL draft. And you have ETN and Harris. Do you have a strong preference between the two? I personally have a slight preference for ETN just because I think his long-term outlook is a little bit better. You look at the roles for 2020, and if you're in a dynasty league, if your goal is to take the player and flip him the following year
Starting point is 00:26:56 based on what he did in his rookie season, then I think Harris is the pick because you know he's going to get the volume in year one. But after that, if Ben retires, that that offensive line is terrible where is that team in 2021 without all of that so i think he has a has potential to to have a worse sophomore year uh than travis etn etn is going to you know presumably be sharing the backfield with with uh james robinson at least you know from the start you know urban meyer has said that they drafted Etienne as a third down back, which I would not believe that.
Starting point is 00:27:30 They spent a late first-round pick on him, right? So he's probably going to be more involved than we think he is. But for year one, he could potentially produce less than Harris. The other thing I'll say about that, though, is that Harris is, I think, a back that is going to need the volume that he's going to receive, whereas Etienne is kind of that home run threat and he can succeed from fantasy on a much lower rush share or carry share. So I think it's possible that both of them have similar numbers at the end of the season, but Etienne has done it on a smaller workload. And Heath, if you have a pick in your dynasty draft, they're both on the board.
Starting point is 00:28:06 Who are you going with? Yeah, I'm taking Harris kind of for the reasons that Matt said. I do think he'll be better in year one, and I do think there's a pretty good chance at the end of year one his value relative to Etienne's has gone up. But I don't necessarily disagree. I think Etienne has the higher long-term upside, but Harris has quite a bit more upside this year.
Starting point is 00:28:25 And when you're talking about running backs, especially running backs coming into the league as old as these guys are, their window might only be five years. So year one for me is pretty important. Okay, so let's go to the third tier. So it's Chase and Pitts in tier one, ETN and Harris in tier two.
Starting point is 00:28:42 This is interesting. Now you go Waddle, Jante williams davante smith and i teased this a little earlier a name that i don't typically see a group with these guys is rashad bateman who was the first round pick wide receiver for the baltimore ravens so waddle giovante williams davante smith and rashad bateman why do you have bateman in that tier i actually have moved him down just one spot but to the next tier okay uh but you know i think from a talent standpoint he belongs with those guys and and if you're going to ask the question mark look at the question marks for each of these players you know bateman has for me the
Starting point is 00:29:16 question with baden is is the volume issue right uh but the reason why i had had moved him up briefly was i made this mistake with A.J. Brown. I was like, A.J. Brown went to a bad situation and probably a low-volume passing offense with Derrick Henry there. And the offense centered around him. And I missed out on A.J. Brown a lot. So that kind of scarred me a little bit. So not that Lamar Jackson is going to take off and throw the ball as much as have a huge transition like Josh Allen did this year. But I do want to believe that they're going to open up it a little bit.
Starting point is 00:29:51 I don't think they would have spent the pick on Bateman if they wanted to continue doing exactly the same thing. So it gives them that reliable receiver that can be used all over the field. And I've always wanted Lamar Jackson to get kind of that reliable veteran that's going to be open when he knows he's going to be open because I think Jackson is a better passer than we've given him credit for so far it's just the offense that he's in and what he's asked to do right now so uh he's kind of in the middle there between those those two receivers and the running back and then the next big group for me. So I could go either way, but right now I did move him down into that next group. Yeah, I just, I don't know what to do with that whole,
Starting point is 00:30:31 like long-term, the whole situation. I mean, I do think that the likely odds are that he's going to beat out Marquise Brown for the number one wide receiver in targets. I don't know that it'll happen in year one, just because, like you said, the volume is so low. His number of opportunities to,
Starting point is 00:30:49 to really make that impact and prove to Lamar Jackson that he's the guy is smaller than an offense that's thrown at 40 times a game. He was getting seven targets a game as the third guy. He could make that transition a little bit quicker, I think I, but I still believe, and this goes back into where I have Andrews as far as in the tight end rankings, I still believe that Mark
Starting point is 00:31:08 Andrews is likely to be Lamar Jackson's number one target for as long as he's there. So if we're talking about the number two target in an offense that's going to run the ball 500 times, I get a little less excited. But I do think, like, Bateman's profile puts him in this category. This is really a test
Starting point is 00:31:24 of how much landing spot matters to you and how good we are at predicting what landing spot's going to be two to three years from now. 100%. And one thing I will say is, you know, I think it was 30% of the targets that Marquise Brown had over the second half of the season. It might be a little bit less than half the season.
Starting point is 00:31:43 But I do think that if Bateman had that same amount of target, same target share, he would probably do more with it at this point. Minus the deep balls and stuff like that, if they were to connect on that, obviously that's going to inflate Markey's Brown stats. But if Bateman has that kind of target share, then I think he can be fantasy relevant. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:32:02 Heath, you said that maybe he belongs. I would push back that he belongs in the same tier as Waddle and Smith. Yeah. Heath, you said that maybe he belongs. I would just, I would push back that he belongs in the same tier as Waddle and Smith because, and I said this, I said this, I think right after the draft, I think the night we did the first show or the second, I don't remember that my first three picks in the draft would be, would chase smith waddle in some order but i would amend that to say pits put pits in there i i think i might go with four non-running backs before harris or etn i want to i want to know what you guys think about that because you know you're playing the long game but i understand that i understand that running backs can just have a bigger impact right especially a guy that could be a three down running back. You know, Harris has so much potential and I love the landing spot, but I just, I'm really excited
Starting point is 00:32:50 about Chase, Chase Smith and Waddle. I think they could be stars. And I just wonder, you know, do you just go best player available? Like these guys are better prospects than the two running backs. And then obviously pits, you know, it's an easy case to make. But Matt, what do you think about that idea of taking four non-running backs before Etienne or Harris come off the board? It's not a terrible strategy. You want to draft for talent and trade for need, right? The problem though, is that everybody needs running back. It's just the positional scarcity of that position because there's 20, maybe 20 running backs that we feel pretty good about right now.
Starting point is 00:33:32 You could maybe stretch it to 24, 25, but every team needs at least two and probably every team wants three or four. So that kind of pushes up the value of those running backs, whereas at receiver, you can go 40, maybe even 50 deep and still feel pretty good about the guys that you're going to be starting on a weekly basis so the reason the draft running back before the the receivers that aren't the you know jamar chase level prospect is is just because of that that positional value and the fact and also the fact that they typically will have success earlier
Starting point is 00:34:03 than the wide receivers except for those really elite prospects, right? So it gives you an opportunity to increase their value and trade them for something else if you want to. So drafting the running backs ahead of the wide receivers that have a little bit of question marks can be profitable. But we like young wide receivers in Dynasty for sure. Well, and I think long-term, there's significantly less risk with Devontae Smith and to a certain extent Waddell too, but I'm a little concerned about what their rookie years look like. And we still have questions about both of their quarterbacks.
Starting point is 00:34:42 And so I don't think it's outside of the range of the possibilities. This year, they don't really have a major injury, but they have 650 receiving yards or something. And all of a sudden, nobody's really wanting to give you a top five or six rookie pick for them because they would like to see something first. Well, look, I'm just saying that the last time
Starting point is 00:35:02 three wide receivers were taken in the top 10, it was Corey Davis, Mike Williams, and John Ross. So, you know, just keep that in mind, everybody. Okay, now what were you saying, Matt? No, I was just going to reiterate what Heath said there. If wide receivers will typically hold some value, especially the ones that are drafted highly, I guess not necessarily John Ross, but mike williams definitely held his value
Starting point is 00:35:29 for a while cory davis was still you know a very attractive player in the second and third year um so there is some truth to that it's just just that positional scarcity for me the running backs are just the cheapest place to acquire a running back is in the rookie draft because like once they become elite you know once they become elite assets you can't pry them for less than two firsts in most cases. Even the older players like Dalvin Cook, who I saw was in your poll, you're not going to get him for a single first round pick in most cases. So the running back, I think, should be the last piece you add to your championship run just because we value that youth.
Starting point is 00:36:05 And then the cheapest place to do that is in the rookie draft. Okay, so then let's just go through one more tier here. Make sure we have time for some buy low and sell high and then those Twitter polls you mentioned and all that. I'll put Rashad Bateman in this next tier then. We'll put him in the fourth tier with Elijah Moore for the Jets, Rondale Moore for the Cardinals, Terrence Marshall, wide receiver for the Panthers, and then Trevor Moore for the Cardinals, Terrace Marshall, wide receiver for the Panthers,
Starting point is 00:36:25 and then Trevor Lawrence, Trey Lance, and Justin Fields. You got three quarterbacks off the board here, Lawrence, Lance, Fields. But four wide receivers, Bateman, Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, Terrace Marshall, and then Lawrence, Lance, and Fields. What kind of impact are you expecting from this group? Are we looking, especially the wide receivers, with Bateman, the two Moores, and Marshall, are we looking at guys that you think could be great
Starting point is 00:36:46 or could be number two receivers? What do you think? I think all of these guys have a chance to be great. Both Moors are two of my favorite players in this draft. The Jets are tough just because of the history we have with that team, right? But we have to keep in mind, it's a new coaching staff, it's a new quarterback all that stuff so and Elijah Moore has all the
Starting point is 00:37:10 potential in the world to play uh you know he's going to start out in the slot obviously but I think he has some potential to play outside and then Rondale Moore is my favorite player in the entire draft and he land if he didn't I'm a Packer fan so if he couldn't land with the Packers I think the the Cardinals are are the Cardinals are probably the best place for him. They have that horizontal offense. It's going to be so fun to watch those two little guys and Kyler Murray and Rondell Moore out there doing their thing. So he has potential, I think, to be just like a PPR cheat code. And then Terrace Marshall, he fell a little bit, I think was due to some medical issues that aren't really a concern and land in a place with
Starting point is 00:37:45 two other very good receivers. But I think he could potentially take over for Robbie Anderson, probably not in year one, but the second half of year one, he's going to get a lot more play. And we hope Sam Bradford is going to be rejuvenated with Joe Brady there. So those receivers, I think all of them have the potential to jump into that next tier, a tier above them. It's just they have a few more question marks than those guys above them. Rondale Moore and Terrace Marshall are the two guys that I'm having a hard time not getting irrationally excited about. I know, right?
Starting point is 00:38:16 I really like both of them. I can see myself in the mirror saying you like them more than you should. But I do think the interesting question with lawrence is if like what do you think is the highest someone can reasonably take him in a rookie draft if quarterback is their biggest need i think the top of this tier i think i think right after the top seven there i think it's reasonable to consider lawrence if you need a quarterback or even if you don't if it's a luxury pick maybe you're set up maybe you're a contender who has an old quarterback uh and you're stacked everywhere else and you just want to secure the future. I think it's reasonable to go there.
Starting point is 00:38:52 So, yeah, all three of these quarterbacks, I think, are reasonable end of the first round picks. I don't know if I personally would do it just because it's really easy to stream quarterbacks. Even in Dynasty in a one quarterback format, it's pretty easy to do in most cases. And if not, if I don't want to spend my first round pick on a quarterback in a rookie draft, I can probably go trade my second round pick for almost any quarterback that isn't in the top, you know, eight to 10 players.
Starting point is 00:39:18 So it just depends on where you want to spend that money. If you'd rather to take more of a lottery pick on one of these receivers that could really break out, or if you want to spend that on you know locking down your quarterback position for the next however many years decade whatever we're going to take a quick break on fantasy football today when we come back i'll ask matt and heath players that they want to target in the second and the third rounds of their dynasty drafts whether in the game or in life the right coverage can make all the difference securing Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows.
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Starting point is 00:40:43 senior writer for Dynasty League Football, zookeeper as well. We hope to have time to ask him some more crazy zoo stories and not the depressing ones that I asked about. Tier three was Waddle, Javante Williams, and Devante Smith. And then tier four, Rashad Bateman, Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, Terrace Marshall, and the first three quarterbacks, Trevor Lawrence, Trey Lance, and Justin Fields. So now we're done with basically a round. And who are some of your favorite players that are going to go in the second and third rounds of Dynasty drafts? I mentioned Diamond Brown earlier. Amare Rogers is very interesting if if aaron
Starting point is 00:41:26 rogers does come back that seems like a big question mark right now i think that could be a disastrous situation for amari rogers if it is jordan love uh under center uh uh cadareous tony i'm coming around on i think i'm probably still lower than on him than most people but he does have that first round draft capital. For me, the situation is a little bit murky with all of those receivers there. But Paul Pertichiesi over the Saturday to Sunday podcast, he pointed out that it could be very well that the rest of those guys are gone next season, including Jason Garrett, if you're not thrilled with his creative play calling. That might be a little bit overblown because he could just be gone. And going into 2022,
Starting point is 00:42:04 it could just be Galladay and Kadarius Tony there. So I probably have him a little bit overblown because he could just be gone and going into 2022 it could just be Galladay and Qadari is Tony there so I probably have him a little bit too low and then Amon St. Brown Ross St. Brown he's very interesting just because of the situation there's no no reliable receivers there in Detroit you know you have Hawkinson and as the as the only really reliable receiver and then the other guys are just, you know, they're mostly deep ball threats. So Jerry Goff, we know, likes that intermediate target with Cooper Cup, one of my favorite players. So you don't want to say that Amon Rahas St. Brown is the next Cooper Cup necessarily, but I think he has the potential to be that kind of safety blanket for Jerry Goff. And I think it's so dependent on your draft, but there are going
Starting point is 00:42:46 to be a lot of drafts where one of, or maybe two, of Rondale Moore and Terrace Marshall or Rashad Bateman are there early in the second round. That's going to happen a lot. When they don't,
Starting point is 00:43:02 I still like Trey Sermon largely because I like running backs who are going to eventually get a chance in San Francisco. That usually works out if you get the ball handed to you in San Francisco. And then I agree completely about St. Brown. He's a guy who might have been early in the third round in a different situation with the NFL draft. Now I think I really like him in the middle of the second round. And he might jump up after year one just because of the volume he sees to someone who someone views
Starting point is 00:43:30 as like a top five or six wide receiver from this class. And so I think he might be a top five or six receiver in terms of rookie production. So yeah, I like St. Brown quite a bit. And I don't have any problem at all with taking Justin Fields
Starting point is 00:43:44 early in the second either. When you look at Amon at a monitor saint brown and i know there's a lot of reason to to like the landing spot and all that stuff uh but he was a fourth round pick and he was the one two three four five six seven eight nine ten eleven twelve thirteen i think i lost count i think he was the 16th wide receiver selection selected something like that that there's not a lot of hits on guys who are selected that late at the position, but this was, I guess, a pretty good class. But there aren't that many great players that come out of day three. I say that all the time.
Starting point is 00:44:13 So why not take a shot on Zach Wilson or Mac Jones ahead of Amonra St. Brown, ahead of Nico Collins, even Deami Brown, who I know you're pretty high on. Heath, did I cut you off there? Did you want to jump in there? Well, I did because for me, and I think that Deami Brown, for sure, you can have that conversation and you can have the conversation about, well, not a whole lot of other guys once you get to the middle of the second because you get to about pick 21 and I just don't want to
Starting point is 00:44:40 play anymore. But for Zach Wilson and Mac Jones, if you're in a one quarterback league, I don't know that they have the upside to ever be a pot. Like if I'm starting them, I'm still going to have one of the worst quarterbacks in the league at that point. It's just that Zach Wilson was the number two pick. They made it to their upside as a top 12 quarterback. He was the number two pick of the draft. I mean, there are a lot of really bad players who went number quarterbacks, went number two overall. I get that. But I mean, you know, he was the second best player in his position, not the 16th best. I don't know that his upside. Do you think that he has the upside to be a top six quarterback?
Starting point is 00:45:16 Yeah, I do. Absolutely. I'm not in year one. Gosh, definitely not. Is that what you meant or you meant overall? No, I don't. I don't. And I could be wrong. I just don't see that as really a very likely like. No, I wouldn't say it's like I wouldn't say it's likely, but I think I think he has more chance to be relevant and top 12 than Amandra St. Brown or Deami Brown do, because I think at that point they're top 12 for sure. But I start like you need to start the top 40 wide receivers. Right, but a top 12... Yeah, okay, but I think a top 12 quarterback... I think Zach Wilson is going to have a better
Starting point is 00:45:51 chance to be fantasy relevant than Amon Rasane Brown after year one. I just think you need to go after... In a one quarterback league, there are so few difference makers at the position and can those two guys be a difference maker not neither of them are going to run nearly
Starting point is 00:46:10 as much as the other three quarterbacks in this draft and let me just read you i mean the list of the top quarterbacks is ridiculous and it's patrick mahomes josh allen kyler murray justin herbert dak prescott lamar jackson russell wilson deshaun watson and then we got trevor lawrence joe burrow and then Justin Fields. You know, I just don't, it just seems so hard for those two to crack that spot. The one thing I will say, though, is that historically, even in one quarterback leagues, rookie quarterbacks drafted highly increase their value from year one to year two. Even ones that don't necessarily perform well
Starting point is 00:46:45 in their rookie year. So you do have that feather in your hat. I just don't see the rushing upside from those two to be a true difference maker in one quarterback. I think an interesting guy, and we're going to transition to Bilos in just a minute, so this is me making that transition for Adam. Great.
Starting point is 00:47:00 Tua, I have noticed that it does not seem like any, like I'm in a startup right now and he was like the 22nd quarterback or something taking it does not seem like anybody has any interest in tua right now i don't value wilson or mac jones anywhere close to tua agree like and so like that's the thing like and i still don't know if Tua is going to be good or not, but I'm more excited about having him on our roster than I am either of those two. 100%.
Starting point is 00:47:33 I don't really like Mac Jones much. I'm very happy he didn't go third overall because it would have made me feel like I was a total idiot because I trust the Niners organization. And he was never really in play for them. So, you know, he's not, it doesn't seem like he's a special quarterback. I listened to what all the experts had to say and all the experts like, yeah, this guy's really good. He's got, he's super smart, but he's not a top 10 pick, you know, and he didn't go there. So that's fine. But Zach Wilson, I think, I feel like we're selling him a little bit short
Starting point is 00:48:05 just because he went to, I honestly think it's because he went to the Jets. And the Jets have such a, I mean, they're just a bad franchise, but. Well, he had questions, though, about like, there's plenty to question about him just as a prospect. We can talk about him as a prospect if you want to. Yeah, please.
Starting point is 00:48:21 I don't know how deep you want to get, but I do have a personal bias against him. I think his decision-making is extremely questionable. He's overconfident in his arm. There's several plays. I think one was against Houston where it was this little flea flicker, and he threw it into coverage while there was a guy sitting in the end zone. So I just don't think he sees the whole field well.
Starting point is 00:48:39 And then he does this little jump throw, like this jump throw back across his body. I just don't think it's going to work in the NFL. So I think early on in his career, he's going to have to be more hidden than featured, if that makes any sense. You're going to have to hide his mistakes more than you're going to be able to feature his assets.
Starting point is 00:48:57 So he could develop, absolutely, but it's so tough to see success for him in year one. I agree in year one. But I think the Jets, I don't think they're going to have success for him in year one. I agree in year one, but I think the Jets, I don't think they're going to have a very good offense this year, but you can certainly see them having a good offense at some point soon. Maybe it's 2022.
Starting point is 00:49:15 They've invested in their offensive line. They invested in wide receiver. They hopefully have found their answer at quarterback. They may not be a bad offense for much longer, and they got rid of Adam Gay, so that's good. All right, so let's go to the buy lows. I guess, Heath, you just made your case for Tua. Anyone else you want to talk about?
Starting point is 00:49:34 Yeah. And some of these are just... It'll be more interesting probably to hear everyone else's because I have talked about these guys quite a bit, but I'm buying low right now based on what the consensus rankings are on Lamar Jackson, on Josh Jacobs,
Starting point is 00:49:50 and on Juju Smith-Schuster. I looked at the consensus rankings on Fantasy Pros. I don't know exactly what ADP is, but in the startup, they were pretty close to what just happened. Josh Jacobs is an end-of-the-fourth-round pick.
Starting point is 00:50:06 Juju is an early-round-six pick. And Lamar Jackson was quarterback five behind Kyler, Josh Allen, and I think Dak. And I just think, like, I think Lamar is the most likely quarterback over the next three to five years to be the second-best quarterback in fantasy. And I still believe... Juju and Jacobs are still young.
Starting point is 00:50:29 And that feels like they're almost going later in Dynasty than they are in redraft. And that doesn't make any sense to me at all. Okay. And you want to follow up on that, Matt? Or do you want to give your own list? I mean, I can comment on that. I think Juju's a good call.
Starting point is 00:50:45 I don't have the May ADP for DLF yet, but in April he was going off as the 49th player overall. So just the early, early fifth round. And I just think it's hard to separate him from Clay Pohl and Deontay Johnson. I just don't know how you separate that production for those three for this season. But he only signed that one-year deal, and he could certainly be moving on to better pastures next year. And, you know, he's only 24 years old, so I like that call quite a bit. And then for Lamar Jackson, I never moved him from quarterback, too. I know he's been moving up and down dynasty rankings, you know, all the way down to, like, seven in some cases at the quarterback position.
Starting point is 00:51:24 I don't know. I don't see so uh always been been two for me do you just go right into my i would say that i would probably take kyler murray over over him and i think i can see him yeah he's gonna run for a lot more than josh allen uh it's it's tough it's tough in redraft and it's tough in dynasty and And I'd probably take Zach Wilson over all of them anyway. Of course. Who are your bylaws, Matt? I have a bunch, so I'll just throw some names out there. A lot of the second-year receivers that kind of disappointed a little bit. Judy, we didn't feel as good about.
Starting point is 00:51:58 He was the second in the class, number one for some people last season over CeeDee Lamb. But Judy, I think, is interesting. Rager was injured. Now he doesn't have to be the number one for some people last season over CeeDee Lamp. But Judy, I think, is interesting. Rager was injured. Now he doesn't have to be the number one necessarily. Michael Pittman, they didn't really add anything to the receiving game for Indianapolis, so he profiles. He could be a number one. I think he's better as a number two, but he could be a number one
Starting point is 00:52:20 in that particular offensive. Hilton continues to slide. And then a little bit deeper, Gabriel Davis and Buffalo kind of came on at the end of the season. They did add Emmanuel Sanders, but long-term, Gabriel Davis is probably the two there. Darnell Mooney just got a significant quarterback upgrade. Brian Edwards we're not really talking about. I kind of like him more than Henry Ruggs, to be honest with you. And again, Oakland didn't really, or excuse me, Las Vegas didn't really do much to help out that passing game. So he's interesting
Starting point is 00:52:48 for year two. And then even deeper, we'll go to Donovan Peoples-Jones, who flashed a little bit at the end of the season for Cleveland. So if that passing game continues to take a step forward, he's very interesting. Matt, I had two questions. And the first was, because I love the calls of both Judy and Pitt pitman where would you rank them compared to this year's rookies as far as wide rookie wide receivers um they would be below chase for sure uh but you know and that next and the next group i think definitely i would probably yeah i think i would have the i would have judy for sure in the same tier as Waddle and Devonta Smith. And Rager probably just right below that area. And then Pittman, yeah, probably about that same range, I would say.
Starting point is 00:53:32 I would rather have Rondell Moore probably, but definitely would be still in the first round, I think. It seems to be on Twitter, it's Mikkel Hardman Week. So is he a buy low or a sell high? I don't think he's necessarily. I mean, if he's either of those, he's probably a buy low. I don't think he's a sell high unless the hype is higher than I've seen so far. But I don't mind buying him.
Starting point is 00:54:02 He's just, I don't know. I don't think his true value is going to be unlocked unless we miss some time with Tyreek Hill. So I just don't know if he's that reliable. Number two, some people have been talking about Byron Pringle. I don't know. They seem to like him, but then they drafted somebody late to Cornell Powell.
Starting point is 00:54:19 Cornell Powell. Yeah. So I don't know. The opportunity definitely seems to be there, but can he capitalize it on i'm not sure can you tell me where i have two by low suggestions and i'll kind of frame it and uh you know you need some context james robinson and dj morty you have that adp up from april where robinson is obviously you know his is definitely plummeted i'm sure in may but let
Starting point is 00:54:43 me tell you so you find out where he is right now. And I will look and see where he just went in this startup. Okay. Look, I don't know if you should have super high expectations for James Robinson, but I would probably give up a third-round pick in a rookie-only draft for him if I just need some running back depth this year.
Starting point is 00:55:01 People might think that he's going to be completely useless. I don't think that's the case case at least not early in the year he went um the first pick of round six okay in this startup post-draft startup that feels a little steep he went much earlier in in april adp obviously running back 20 in the end of the third round so that has definitely fallen quite a bit i think i think the seventh round is probably closer to true value once you get past uh the other back end you know guys that like the 20 to 24 guys like jacobs where he is currently david mcgumray chris carson once you get into that range i think after those guys he like before james before melvin gordon for
Starting point is 00:55:41 instance i think i would probably take him before then so kind of in that late 20s to early 30s range at running back. It was an interesting run because Carson actually went right before him. And then it went Robinson, Sermon, Michael Carter. Oh, I think I'd definitely take Carter over Robinson. I don't know. We've never... Michael Carter didn't just lose his job,
Starting point is 00:56:06 so that's good, but I don't know that Michael Carter ever has really the potential to do what James Robinson did last year. Probably not, but I don't think James Robinson has the potential to do what James Robinson did last year anymore.
Starting point is 00:56:19 Obviously, if ETN gets hurt, it's a different story. I just think there are enough draft analysts that loved Michael Carter that I'm intrigued. I guess I'm a Jets fan all of a sudden. It seems like you're a Jets fan. What about DJ Moore?
Starting point is 00:56:36 Because DJ Moore is only 24 years old, just like Juju. He's been top 10 in receiving yards two straight seasons. That is really the only thing you need to know. He's really good. Just doesn't catch enough touchdowns. But I don't know when that problem is going to be solved. I don't know if it's going to be this year.
Starting point is 00:56:52 But when did DJ Moore go? When was his ADP last year? And Heath, when did he go in the draft? Yeah, I don't think he has a buy low at all. I don't think the Dynasty community is giving up on DJ Moore in any shape, fashion, or form. He was a second-round pick in this startup. Yeah, in April, wide receiver nine
Starting point is 00:57:07 and the late second-round pick, early third-round pick. We're not giving up on DJ Moore. So then let me spin that to redraft because I think the Dynasty community knows what DJ Moore's potential is. When I see him going in round four or five, I think, in redraft leagues, he still feels like a great value to me anyway.
Starting point is 00:57:27 So I like him. That's the bottom line. Sell high, sell high. Heath, you said one of my two guys that I was going to suggest is definitely a sell high. And the two guys I had were Devontae Adams with this whole Aaron Rodgers uncertainty and also the fact that he'll be 29 years old
Starting point is 00:57:40 at the end of the year. He'll be 29 in December. And Travis Kelsey, who will be 32 years old in October. Matt, I believe, mentioned it earlier. Five straight seasons as the number one tight end in PPR leagues. I would guess that in the modern era of fantasy football, whatever the hell that means, there has never been a player that has finished number one
Starting point is 00:58:01 in his position five straight years other than Travis Kelsey. But which one is the sell high? Adams or said that travis kelsey is the greatest fantasy football player of all time um he's up he's got to be up there he's not about rushmore as far as impact goes relative to his position that might just be true i also think like even if you're contending this year travis kelsey is probably the best sell high because it seems like for a lot of people in our startup, he went in the second round. And that's we did a startup mock just a month ago. And I think he went at the end of round one. And I like that.
Starting point is 00:58:37 I'm the guy who really pushes Travis Kelsey in the first round and redraft. But in Dynasty, if you do that, then you better just start drafting, just forget about age and use your redraft rankings and win a title this year. And if I don't have a good team around Kelsey, he is my top priority to get rid of. He may be number one again this year, but it's very, very close to the end of that run.
Starting point is 00:59:03 I want to compare. I did this a few months ago when we talked Dynasty. I want to compare him to Tony Gonzalez. So Kelsey's going to turn 32 in October, and he only has 111 games played. When Tony Gonzalez turned 32, he had played 174 games through his age 31 season. So a little bit less wear and tear,
Starting point is 00:59:23 a lot less on Kelsey than Gonzalez. And where did Tony Gonzalez finish in PPR leagues after turning 32, which is what Kelsey will be this year? One thing to note before I even give these numbers, he only played one more year with Kansas City and then he went to Atlanta for the final five years of his career.
Starting point is 00:59:39 He was, starting at age 32, Tony Gonzalez was tight end one, tight end six, tight end six, tight end six, tight end four, tight end two, and tight end four in his last six seasons. He never finished lower than sixth. He finished fourth or better four of the six seasons. He finished first or second twice. I'm certainly not saying Kelsey will do that,
Starting point is 01:00:00 but it is just interesting to know that Gonzalez, who played a lot more games and changed teams, was really damn good as a tight end going forward. So, I don't know. Matt, what do you think about Kelsey? When would you draft him in a redraft league? In a redraft league? I'm sorry, I'm sorry, I'm sorry.
Starting point is 01:00:22 In a startup dynasty league, my bad. In a startup dynasty? I'm sorry, I'm sorry, I'm sorry. In a startup dynasty league, my bad. In a startup dynasty? I'm probably... It really depends, because I have plenty of teams that are strong competitors that are all old, you know, that kind of thing.
Starting point is 01:00:32 But I think at this point in a dynasty league, especially in the first few rounds where you're going to have to take Kelsey, I want to take players who have a chance to increase in value, and that's not Kelsey. He could certainly maintain value, because we don't care about age
Starting point is 01:00:45 as much as the tight end position, like you just mentioned with another Hall of Famer there, right? So I think there's an argument for it. I personally wouldn't do it. I do think Heath is right, though, that if you want to maximize your return on Kelsey,
Starting point is 01:00:58 like now is the time to do it after coming off a historic season, five straight years of the tight end one overall. Like this is the time to do it. Is he still going to be a top five tight end this year? Absolutely. Probably next year, maybe the year after that.
Starting point is 01:01:10 So he can still be a key piece of a dynasty dynasty team over the next few years if we're going to play in this two to three year window. But maximizing return, I think you've got to sell him this season. Who are you selling high on, Matt? I've got a handful. Some of these I think are probably got to sell him this season. Who are you selling high on, Matt? I've got a handful. Some of these I think are probably pretty obvious, though. I think all of the running backs that avoided getting usurped by one of the top rookies.
Starting point is 01:01:35 So that's Myles Gaskin. Again, he'll probably have a very good season this year, but one injury, his value is done. Any kind of unproductive streak, his value is done any kind of an unproductive streak his value is is gone same with mike davis uh you mentioned that news blurb earlier uh and then chase edmunds i this one is really interesting because i think chase edmunds is considered a big winner in this draft all three of these guys really right but chase edmunds specifically because they didn't add anybody of significance they added james connor but we don't really know what to expect about him.
Starting point is 01:02:06 But if James Connor ends up being the short yardage and goal line back and taking that aspect away from chase Edmonds and then Rondale more kind of becomes an extension of the running game as that, that short area target taking away those short receptions for Edmonds, then he could be in a really bad spot. So while these three guys look like winners coming out of the draft, I want to go ahead and take the opportunity to get guys look like winners coming out of the draft, I want to go ahead and take the opportunity to get out now while their value is probably the highest.
Starting point is 01:02:29 The best time to do it would have been before the draft, but this is the second best time. And then one last guy, Brandon Ayuk, who I do like as a player, but he broke out when all of those parts in San Francisco were heard, right? Kittle was out. Debo was out. And Iuke flourished. So with both those guys back healthy with a new quarterback where they might want to do a little bit more running, even more than they did last season, then he seems to be somebody
Starting point is 01:02:54 who might fall a little bit from year one to year two in terms of his value. And I've got one more that Adam will hate. So that's what I like to bring to the table. Mike Evans, I think. I know, Adam, you're right. got one more that adam will hate so that's what i like to bring to the table uh mike evans i think i i know adam you're right he's always good for fantasy um and he has been but he's a he's a 28 year old receiver i don't know what his um current adp is but he went wide receiver 12 in
Starting point is 01:03:21 this recent startup we just did and i think that's pretty close to where his consensus ranking is as well. If you're 28 years old and you're wide receiver 12 and dynasty, then you had better be a top four or five dynasty wide receiver this year. And next year I'm hoping. Um, and I just don't think he is that the targets last year were awful. The yards he's got one year in his last four with more than 1150 yards which is like that's good but that's a borderline top 12 wide receiver we know the touchdowns aren't going
Starting point is 01:03:53 to repeat themselves and it's so crowded in tampa bay and so uncertain with tom brady over how long this is going to last i would like to get if i could get top 12 value for Mike Evans and dynasty, I would love that. He is. I, yeah, I don't hate it. I don't hate that at all. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:04:09 He's he's 20 wide receiver, 20 in April ADP. I'm guessing he's fallen. Okay. Since then a little bit. So yeah, he is lower there. And I think you could make a case for even moving them lower than that.
Starting point is 01:04:19 Like the guy you mentioned earlier, he, Juju is just below him. Chase kill April, just below him. Devante Smith, just below him. Cortland April, just below him. Devante Smith, just below him. Cortland,
Starting point is 01:04:26 salt, sudden, uh, Jerry, Judy, Deontay Johnson, Kenny Galladay. I mean,
Starting point is 01:04:29 I think there's an, there's an argument to move them even lower than, than that. I've got him 28. Yeah, that seems fair. That probably feels low to me, but because I just think he's,
Starting point is 01:04:39 I think he's, uh, not talked about as one of the best wide receivers in football, but his project production, he's not one of the very best, but his production is ridiculous. I mean, 1,000 yards every year of his career. I love the offense. I love the quarterback who's going to be there for a long time, it seems.
Starting point is 01:04:58 But week to week, you know, like he is maddening week to week. He was this past year. I think this was a fairly... It was a pretty inconsistent year. I don't really know what to make of that. I just know that at the end of the year, he's going to have 1,000 yards and could have eight touchdowns.
Starting point is 01:05:14 So I'm probably going to be higher than him than most in redraft leagues. But yeah, I mean, I know what you're saying in Dynasty. I get it. He should not be the 12th wide receiver taken in a startup Dynasty league for sure. I want to throw this out there on Devontae Adams. Just the last time he played without Aaron Rodgers, I was it. He should not be the 12th wide receiver taken in a startup dynasty league for sure. I want to throw this out there on Devontae Adams.
Starting point is 01:05:26 Just the last time he played without Aaron Rodgers, I was surprised. I didn't remember how good he was. He played eight games. Rodgers threw, I think, four passes in that Minnesota game in 2017. And he didn't throw any touchdowns or anything. So I included that as a game without Aaron Rodgers. And those eight games that year, Devontae Adams had 46 catches, 543 yards, five touchdowns on 71 targets. So that's 92 catches, nearly 1,100 yards and 10
Starting point is 01:05:52 touchdowns on 142 targets over 16 games. Brett Hundley was his quarterback. He had a 70.6 passer rating that season. And an aging Jordy Nelson. Nelson only played one more year. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb were both on that team. Adams only played 14 games, and he led the team in receiving. He led the team in touchdowns. He played eight of those games without Aaron Rodgers, so I was surprised. That was really, I mean, he hadn't really completely busted out yet.
Starting point is 01:06:17 It's been the last three years for him since that year where he's been one of the elite wide receiver in fantasy, you could argue. So that was interesting. He did great with Brett Hundley at quarterback in 2017. He might not have Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback much longer. So those are just numbers to know. He is great. But he is also 28 years old and will be 29 in December.
Starting point is 01:06:39 Let's take a look at these Twitter polls to compare some of the rookies to some of the veterans. I wish I had if I had been smart, I would have included the age in the wide receiver poll. I know I did it in the rookie poll, but the first one was, who is your favorite in a dynasty league? Devante Adams, Jamar Chase, or Tyreek Hill?
Starting point is 01:06:58 And who, Heath, who do you think won this poll? I would assume, I'm going to guess Tyreek tyree kill you're correct he had 50 of the vote 49 and it was basically even between davante adams and jamar chase between 25.3 and 25.8 um who would you take hill adams or chase i would take adams yeah i i mean you know I know you put all those stats out there with Aaron
Starting point is 01:07:28 missing without Aaron Rodgers but if it's Aaron Rodgers then it's Devontae Adams and if it's not I think it's Tyreek Hill but you know Jamar Chase is really good and if you're building from a youth approach then I could see Chase above both of them as well and look those stats were good but they weren't amazing it It was 1,100 yards
Starting point is 01:07:46 and 10 touchdowns. That's going to be great, but he could be even better than that, obviously. I think most Dynasty players probably have Tyreek above them at this point anyway. A slot or two. Who's your favorite in the Dynasty League? I will use the age they will be by the middle
Starting point is 01:08:02 of the 2021 season. Dalvin Cook, age 26. Najee use the age they will be by the middle of the 2021 season. Dalvin Cook, age 26. Najee Harris, age 23. Alvin Kamara, age 26. DeAndre Swift, age 22. So you've got Cook and Kamara, age 26. Harris at age 23. And DeAndre Swift at age 22. And the results pretty even in this poll. Heath, who did you vote for and who did you mean to vote for? I accidentally voted for DeAndre Swift. I meant to vote for Dalvin Cook, but those two are both in my top five and my confidence in my ability to win in 2021 would be the tiebreaker between the two. But I obviously love Swift. Yeah, well, they are in first and second place. People would rather have, according to this poll,
Starting point is 01:08:46 DeAndre Swift ahead of Alvin Kamara and Najee Harris. So it went Cook 32%, Swift 28%, Kamara 24%, Harris 16%. I would probably have Kamara up ahead of Swift if they approved the
Starting point is 01:09:01 rule request to ban Taysom Hill from playing quarterback. But I just believe Sean Payton's going to choose Taysom Hill. Matt, what do you think about Cook, Harris, Kamara, and Swift? Yeah, Kamara is still number one for me. He had one good game with Taysom Hill. That's true. I'm still confident.
Starting point is 01:09:22 And between the two older guys and Kamara and Cook, I just have more faith and Kamara and Cook. I just have I have more faith in Kamara's ability to to stay stay healthy. He seems to be someone who is very good at shedding, you know, those big hits, whereas Dalvin Cook takes big hits all the time. And either one of these guys, though, one significant injury to them this year and their their dynasty value is tanked. Like this is this is pretty much the last season, you know, kind of similar to the Kelsey, Kelsey conversation. If you want to get peak value on these guys,
Starting point is 01:09:50 now is the time to sell. Even if you might miss out on a, on an elite season this year. Okay. So you go Camaro number one. Is there any case for Harris for Najee Harris over Deandre Swift? Swift is actually younger than Harris. I don't think so at this point.
Starting point is 01:10:06 I mean, just like the team that they're on, that's the only thing I think you can really hang your hat on there, right? Running backs on good teams are typically better than running backs on bad teams. So you could hang your hat on that, but otherwise I don't think so. Counterpoint, Anthony Lynn. Fair. But that's it. and i don't know like the lions are probably gonna have a better offensive line this year right oh for sure for sure they
Starting point is 01:10:33 they appear to have a very good offensive or a above average offensive line and the stealers the stealers have um one of the last year they had one of the worst and I don't know that it's getting any better maybe addition by subtraction I'm trying to find the stat I have it in some note of mine somewhere but the you're absolutely right Matt that running back running backs on good teams are
Starting point is 01:10:58 better you know it's better to be on a good team than a bad team but I think because running backs catch a lot of passes now more, more than ever, it was a little bit of a step back last year. It's less important. So I just looked in,
Starting point is 01:11:12 in PPR leagues. I looked over the last five or six seasons, how many, how many running backs finished top 12 while not being on a top 12 offense, something like that. The bottom line is it keeps going up. It was like three, then four, then five, then five, something like that. The bottom line is it keeps going up. It was like three, then four,
Starting point is 01:11:25 then five, then five, something like that. So it's easier now. Christian McCaffrey is living proof. They've had a kind of 20th-ish ranked offense recently. It's easier now to be an elite running back on a not great offense than it ever was.
Starting point is 01:11:44 Okay, scariest zoo story. Scariest zoo story, and then I'll let you go. Go back to sleep. Personally, my personal scariest zoo story is not super exciting. When I was an intern in 2000, geez, that's been a long time. When I was an intern at the San Francisco zoo, I worked in the children's zoo area and we had this big steer that we would halter up and walk from place to place. And I was kind of, you know, I was at the point where I was getting kind of
Starting point is 01:12:17 complacent and, you know, not, maybe not necessarily paying a hundred percent to what I was doing when putting his halter on and also talking to a guest at the same time. And he did one of these like bucks buck ups with his head and kind of threw me to the ground and kind of stood over me with his horns, like just basically right at my face and like breathing that, you know, you see from the cartoons, the bull exhales and that big puff of, of, of exhale comes out. And that's what, that's what it was. That was my scariest zoo moment as an intern. So, you know, nothing scary with any of the polar bears or any of the really, really actual scary animals, but, uh, I definitely, uh, was, was afraid in that moment. Yeah. I'm afraid right now. Just hearing the story. Heath, any zoo questions? You know, I, I thought you had a whole list, so I was just kind of sitting here coasting,
Starting point is 01:13:04 enjoying the, uh, enjoying the answers. So I find it so fascinating. I mean, you know i i thought you had a whole list so i was just kind of sitting here coasting enjoying the uh enjoying the answers so i find it so fascinating i mean zoos are great i can't wait to go to the zoo go to the bronx zoo pretty soon um yeah anything like what's the what's your do you have a favorite animal to work with or anything my favorite animals are are currently as polar bear my second favorite animal is maybe one that people don't know as much about. It's called a taper, T-A-P-I-R. My favorite variety is the Malayan taper. They're the black and white ones.
Starting point is 01:13:32 I can tell a quick like kind of heartwarming story about those guys if you want. Yeah, sure. Heath and I were just talking about Malayan tapers the other day. So this is perfect. Oh, nice. Yeah. Yeah. So I work with, helped raise one at the Woodland Park Zoo in Seattle about 11 or 12 years ago at this point.
Starting point is 01:13:49 And kind of the general thinking about hoofstock or animals that have hooves, they're not super intelligent, right? They're herd animals and tapirs are not herd animals, but they do qualify as hoofstock. So typically they're viewed as something that's not quite as smart as maybe a primate of course or a carnivore or whatever but uh there was one morning i remember there was it was like a fall more a fall morning and there was like one piece of one one one piece of browse it browses like a a piece of a tree like a branch with some leaves on it right so there's one piece left on this one tree. And I heard, I looked out in the yard and I saw the mom kind of sitting like a dog would sit. If you can picture how a dog sits kind of like that. And tapers, the way they communicate vocally is with these little whistles
Starting point is 01:14:35 and chirps. So I heard her whistle and chirp and the baby came over. The mom could just not, the piece of brows was just, the foliage was just out of her reach. So she whistled, brought the kid over. The kid kind of went up on her front two legs, put them on mom's shoulders, and was able to grab that last piece of brows, and they shared it together. So you have, you know, quote-unquote dumb animals
Starting point is 01:14:56 doing problem-solving things to be able to feed themselves in unique ways. So I thought that was pretty neat. Well, that's really cool. Yeah, that is a great story. That's like me and Heath making a draft pick together. Dumb animals doing some problem solving. And we got some video for those of you who are listening. If you want to go to youtube.com slash fantasyfootball today,
Starting point is 01:15:14 you can see Shrager, Shraggy B, putting up the Malayan taper. That was good stuff. Fancy graphics here. Good job, Shrager. Matt, thank you so much for coming on. I would like to have an all-Zoo episode at one point, but we'll probably have to sprinkle in some Dynasty next time we have you on as well. But we really appreciate it. Thanks for getting up, and thanks for giving us all this info. Tell us anytime you can follow me at matt price ff on twitter all of my works over at dynasty league football.com i do the the flagship episode with ryan mcdowell and dan myler and then also do dynasty game night which is kind of like a game show based on fantasy football so if you're into game shows so that might be a show you'd be
Starting point is 01:16:00 interested in in checking out uh yeah everything's on at DynastyLeagueFootball.com. I have participated in Dynasty Game Night, and I think Adam, that's a program that you should subscribe to because Adam has tried to play some games on this podcast before, and yowza.
Starting point is 01:16:19 I almost brought some to play with you guys, but I wasn't sure if there was time. I think they would call me, as a game show host, they would call me Hoofstock. Yeah. Callback. Exactly. That is Matt Price, Ed Heath-Cummings, and Ben Schrager.
Starting point is 01:16:35 I am Adam Azer. It was our longest episode in a while, but it was a Dynasty episode, so we better go over time for that. Hope you all enjoyed it. We'll come back later this week to react to the schedule. We've got time for your emails and Apple podcast questions as well. Talk to you soon.

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