Fantasy Football Today - Dynasty Talk with DLF's Jeff Haverlack (05/07 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: May 7, 2020

Whether you're new to Dynasty, have been playing Dynasty for years or just want to hear about some rookie and veteran players with bright NFL futures, this episode has got all of that. Jeff Haverlack of Dynasty League Football joins us to talk about how to identify a Year 2 or Year 3 breakout (4:22) and good Buy Low candidates in Dynasty Leagues. How do we feel about Alexander Mattison and Mecole Hardman, for example? And we get into the Year 2 WRs of course (17:15 ish) ... Let's talk about Joe Burrow (24:55)! Burrow or Russell Wilson in Dynasty? Then we've got more rookie talk (30:30). You'll be surprised to hear who Jeff's #1 RB is ... We have a candid conversation about film study (35:00) and how important it is in how we evaluate prospects. And we finish with some general Dynasty tips from Jeff (43:10), the one player he can't forgive for his Fantasy failure (49:00), the best trade he ever made and more ... Email us at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. We are getting so many emails, tweets from our audience about their dynasty leagues.

This is gaining in popularity. We love playing in Dynasty Leagues. And there are a lot of websites and podcasts out there that are just dedicated to Dynasty, like DynastyLeagueFootball.com. We've got a guest from Dynasty League Football. Jeff Haverlack is here. Welcome to the show. Welcome to Fantasy Football today.

How are you doing, Jeff? I'm doing great. Thanks for having me on, guys. Really appreciate it. Oh, it is our pleasure. I love your content. Did a Dynasty League Jeff? I'm doing great. Thanks for having me on, guys. Really appreciate it. Oh, it is our pleasure. I love your content. Did a Dynasty League with the DLF guys a couple of years ago.

Lost in the finals. The league disbanded. So I'm just going to say I'm runner-up. That's pretty good. That's probably why we disbanded the league. If I had won, I would have kept it going for sure. I think I won.

It's a funny thing how things change in Dynasty. I won on the strength of Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon, and now where would I be? But, Jeff, we also have Heath Cummings and Ben Gretsch here. And just before the show, Heath gave a grouchy, grouchy take that I'd love to get your take on. Heath, knock our socks off with your grouchiness. I don't mean for this to be grouchy grouchy take that i'd love to get your take on heath knock our socks off with your grouchiness i don't mean for this to be grouchy i was just talking about how i know that people who

miss social interaction are using a lot of the platforms that we use for work to communicate and have social events and i've been asked to participate in far more of these than I would like to, because I would like to participate in zero of them. And I really, really hate it, especially when it's like four or more people, and there's not like a rundown of the show like there is here. I mean, you've pretty much directed traffic here here we know what we're going to talk about it's just super awkward what inevitably what's the setup they're just like hey let's talk the person i want to talk to the least is going to talk the most um it's just it's really super awkward um and i just don't i'd like for it to be over i don't want this to be a thing that like comes out of this that just continues forever like we're just FaceTiming now FaceTime

on a phone is the worst thing ever and this is just like that tell that to my parents who never get to see their grandkid I don't even want to talk to somebody on the phone just text me alright Jeff what you got I don't know if to talk to somebody on the phone. Just text me. All right, Jeff, what you got?

I don't know if I've got anything on that. I have to agree. You know, this whole social distancing thing has thrown us more onto our phones. My wife is video chatting with my niece and her sister on a regular basis. And, you know, it's gotten to the point now where I just, I hear it in the background and I start shaking. And then I just go sequester myself. It's like, I don't want to be anywhere near it. The shots aren't good.

The cameras are horrible. The video, yeah, it's just not, it's just not a good situation. So, you know what? I'm going to give two thumbs up to that take. Oh, man. Wow. I'm surprised. give two thumbs up to that take, I guess. Oh, man. Wow. I'm surprised. Ben and I are enjoying it.

I play games with my cousins. We play like – we're going to play Family Feud this week. It's going to be awesome. I do too. Yeah, right? It's fun, right, Ben? Yeah. I got a group of friends.

We've been playing board games. We've been playing poker on there. We did a power hour drinking game because one of my old college buddies made this video that it has all these music videos and every minute it changes it was great sing-alongs i mean i enjoy it heath would you like to be part of the family zoom this weekend to play family feud um are you hosting and making up the rules yes no okay good because i was not prepared for a yes answer i would have had to run that by the whole group i don't know how that would have went i think that is the first thing you've ever invited me to

i don't know if that's true remember when you invited everyone else to your wedding with me just david jamie all right let's talk dynasty here and you know you have everyone else to your wedding with me? Just David Jamey. All right. Let's talk dynasty here. And, you know, you have a tendency to just talk about rookies, but I think, you know, a guy like Michael Gallup last year and those types of players are really interesting. The year two, the year three guys that we haven't heard from. And how do you identify those year two breakouts? And this will be relevant for people who play in dynasty leagues and people who don't, you're just getting

ready for your draft for a seasonal league. Jeff, how do you identify year two or year three breakout? Somebody that can really surprise us. You know, I, a number of years ago, I used to spend a lot more time looking at the, the year three breakouts on receivers, but you know, quite honestly now it now, there's no magic formula to it. I mean, there are so many metrics out there. And to be completely transparent, I don't use a lot of the metrics that are out there, the points per route and points per snap and things like that. I like good old fantasy points per game. You know, quite honestly, I'm looking at targets per game. I'm looking especially to end the season. I'm looking for players that have seen

an uptick in production. You take somebody like an Anthony Miller, who's somebody I'm sleeping on, or one of my sleepers on this year as well. You take a look at what he did over the second half of the season, and you don't hear anybody talking about Anthony Miller right now. Yet he, in a four or five game stretch, he had 50 targets. He was completely sleeping the first half of the season, and then he came to life in the second half of the season. And so I love to see the ramp up into the second half of the season and production to end the season. And then, of course, you fold in what a team did in the offseason via free agency or via the draft. And then you just have to ascertain, you know, is this going to be good for this player or is it going to be bad for the player? There's no real secret to it. To me, it all comes down to good

old-fashioned production. Fair enough. I mean, I like the simplicity there. And yeah, Miller, I think we all have a little bit of interest in him kind of as a late-round pick, but maybe you get him as a buy low in a dynasty league, and I think Nick Foles will help. Ben, how about you? Is there anything you're looking for? Jeff just mentioned your three wide receivers.

We've had an email, me, Heath, Ben, and the rest of the FFT crew, an email chain today talking about your two wide receivers, and it appears that they're breaking out a little bit Heath, Ben, and the rest of the FFT crew an email chain today talking about year two wide receivers. And that appears that they're breaking out a little bit earlier, Ben. So Dynasty League people probably need to pay attention to that trend, right? Yeah, yeah. I mean, if you look at it from the big picture, I think over the last several years, we've started to see that more. There are more year two breakouts than year three wide receiver breakouts. Players are starting to be productive earlier in their careers. So they're going to be more likely to break out earlier. And the data does back that up.

And so you can think of that a couple different ways. If a top 100 pick doesn't break out in his first couple three years, he's probably pretty fair to write off. A later round pick you might actually still have some hope for if they're working their way into opportunity. A guy like an Alan Lazard, who I believe was undrafted um i'm pretty excited about he's he's only going into i think year three now but um i'm pretty excited about him because he's finally in a position where he's going to get opportunity and he had a good prospect profile and good production at college

i do agree with jeff i mean i don't think you can i i think you can overanalyze all the advanced statistics and and production tends to beget production and and that's true from college production into the nfl um so a guy like lazard a big reason i like him he was so productive in college uh so yeah i mean i it it tends to vary by different players but yeah i think we can expect earlier breakouts now than we used to. I think if you look at last year, like the two big – there were more than two. But like what Chris Godwin did, what DJ Moore did, we were talking about at the beginning of the year the opportunity that they had. And that's what I'm looking for. Most of the rookies last year I think are going to have above average good fantasy careers, like most of those guys.

But the guy that's going to break out in year two or the guy that's going to break out next year in year three is likely to be the guy that gets a lot more opportunity. It's really hard to – and we don't always know. It was evident in Tampa Bay with Godwin last year. And we had a pretty good idea with more but some situations are a little bit murkier like with aj brown like he was incredible and incredibly efficient we know that's going to regress some but that could easily be made up for if he's got a shot at 120 targets this year it won't matter how much he's going to regress probably and he does because to jeff's point he didn't start playing full snaps until week 10 he's a perfect example of a guy who really wasn't a full-time receiver until the end of the

year he was in the 40 snap range i think all through september then was up around 60 all through october and then it was really nove when he started playing 80% plus snaps, and he was great down the stretch. Well, but I'm talking about, like, let's take a guy like Nicole Hardman, Jeff. Okay? Second round pick two drafts ago. Pretty quiet rookie year. 538 yards, six touchdowns, only 26 catches, only 41 targets in 16 games.

When Tyreek Hill was out, he was pretty healthy. We were hoping for Hardman that Sammy Watkins wouldn't be back, but right now there's not a lot of buzz on Mikko Hardman. But again, it's a second-round pick. And how do you value a second-round pick in the NFL draft just two years ago? How do you value a guy like Hardman? Could he have that Michael Gallup type year? Do we have to wait maybe one more year and then he's unleashed? How do you evaluate somebody like that from a dynasty perspective?

And then how about, I'll just throw one more guy in there. How about Alexander Madison? You know, he's kind of buried right now behind Dalvin cook, but Dalvin cooks going into his fourth year running back short shelf. Like, you know what I mean?

Like there, there's some dynasty leagues just bring in so many interesting perspectives on players. And how would you evaluate two guys like that who showed flashes but didn't have great opportunity in their rookie year sure now that's both those players are interesting and a lot of it also comes down to you as the dynasty coach how competitive is your team do you have the luxury of being patient alexander madison you have to love the way he runs i mean in in short spells uh to Dalvin Cook I mean he was he was awesome but you're gonna have to wait that offense runs through Dalvin Cook and so

you may have to wait for a second contract you may have to wait for injury there's just there's no way with Madison in order to get that type of return that you can overdraft him and expect production in the next 24 months or the next two seasons. Talent and skill, it's definitely there, but you're going to have to be patient. So if you're a competitive dynasty team and you have the ability to be patient, stow these guys, get them onto your roster, knowing that they may not hit for another two or three seasons. However, if you can handcuff them, even better. Now, somebody like McCall Hardman, it's a similar type situation,

but dynamic as a receiver to me is different than dynamic as a running back. And I love for receivers change of circumstance. Now, that can go with any particular position, but change of circumstance in an offense is something that I look for as a new season's beginning or as a season's coming to an end. So is there somebody who's going to be a free agent? Is it going to open up a spot on the depth chart? Somebody like McCall Hardman, a little bit like Madison. His dynamic is different. And in that type of offense, all it's going to take is a small change of circumstance for him to get his opportunity. Watkins is going to go down injured again, and he's going to get his opportunity. I think once Hardman, he's an exciting player, he's dynamic, he's got that it factor that I love into the offense to see regular snaps, he has an opportunity to produce. Until then, I see nothing more than a utility player and somebody that you can draft a bit higher if you also get special teams, return yardage and touchdowns. But both those players are similar in that they're going to require a change of circumstance in order to fully be valued. And their best opportunity is probably going to come either when Watkins leaves

or when Madison gets his opportunity to start somewhere else as a free agent. Would you guys trade a third-round pick in the rookie draft for Nicole Hardman? And let's say it's like the third pick of the third round what yes yes yes yes third third pick of the third round everybody's yes i what is wrong yeah i'm trying to think how high i would go it's it's definitely in the second round um i think i'd go as high as eighth or seventh i think he's a pretty appealing buy low. If you want to transition guys to some buy low candidates in a dynasty league. And I think this also applies to a redraft league.

If he's a buy low in a dynasty league, then probably means he could be a sleeper in a redraft league. And Hardman, from a dynasty standpoint kelsey's getting up there in age maybe this is the walk-ins last year on the team um and you know he was drafted pretty early so you know i like that but but you mentioned anthony miller jeff like is there anybody else that comes to mind by low guys well that's that's a you know as it relates to hardman into this rookie into the rookie uh draft you know a lot of it's going to just depend too on on the depth of the rookie class i mean nobody's going to argue that we have an incredibly deep rookie class this year so you know just looking at the at the rookies especially if you're if you're going to take out quarterback and let's face it you're you're probably not drafting a second

round quarterback unless you you have a dire need at the position but in this in this rookie class i think hardman goes as far as i'm concerned, probably just ahead of Brian Edwards. So probably mid to late second round, just with the depth of this class. Okay. Ben, Heath, any guys that you are thinking about buying low on in a Dynasty League? yeah most of my buy lows for dynasty are going to be um really similar to what the listeners know as my favorite targets in redraft because i'm often looking at younger players we know that and um they're guys that i think have a good shot to break out this season and so those are naturally guys that i think have a good chance of really increasing their dynasty value for the long term as well, obviously,

if they break out this year. So, you know, I've seen some trade offers for the, you know, we talk about DJ Moore and AJ Brown, guys I like. I've seen some trade offers that just really undervalue those guys because of what their production has been to this point. And you just, you do have to think about age. Those guys are still so young. DJ Moore just did what he did as a 22 year old i think they have very strong chances to be top 12 dynasty receivers for the next five plus years and and so if if you're getting uh kind of an under underrated uh value on that basically where somebody's not really projecting that forward. And some people will value those guys very high. Then they're good options. But if you're going to go like a little bit later, Deontay Johnson is a name that I really like to talk about as being undervalued

in all formats. I think Nikhil Harry is still undervalued. I mean, these are guys that had pretty good prospect profiles. Well, Harry didn't do a lot in year one. Johnson did. I don't really understand why Johnson's so undervalued. but they're guys that i think have the potential to really grow in year two and so it's for me it's always going to be those younger targets adam yes sir i don't think that you and ben had the same definition of the uh term by low what do you mean well it depends on the league and like i said i've seen some offers that are pretty ridiculous for guys like more and a.j brown that like it depends who's who's offering um oh yeah i'm not saying that your way is wrong i'm just saying that like i i don't think that

those are the types of players that adam thinks of when he talks about by low i was thinking maybe i'm am i wrong adam i mean no i mean kind i know you're kind of right but i guess i'll let you guys interpret it however you'd like it would be the best way to do it right so somebody in the twitch you guys did last night someone in the chat to put a value on this somebody asked odell i got offered odell Beckham for A.J. Brown and Michael Pittman. And so I'm trying to speak to those types of leagues a little bit because A.J. Brown, to me, should be ahead of Odell Beckham in Dynasty. I was about to ask that. I'm coming up with comparisons right now. Dynasty, this player A versus player B. And the first one was Beckham versus A.J. Brown. So you say Brown. Jeff,

Beckham or Brown? Brown clearly. Very clearly. Thank you. Heath? Yeah, I've got Beckham. Of course he does. Okay, how come? I mean, I don't know. Beckham's still in the prime of his career.

He's shown us, like, the number one wide receiver upside. And I really like A.J. Brown a lot, but he's on a team that would, by design, like to throw the ball 450 times. I was looking it up while we were doing something else, so now that we're back on A.J. Brown, I get to say it. But Ben was talking about the breakout that he had in the second half last year. And he started playing 90% of the snaps in week 10.

And that's a really good point. I was kind of like, man, I wonder what his target pace was after he started playing 90% of the snaps. And it was for 98 targets. Their pass attempt pace was like 350 because they were so efficient during that stretch. There's no way their total – you got to look at his – I believe his market share in that stretch was 24%, 25%, which is really strong. And his air yard share was close to 40%. This is not an anti-AJ Brown thing. I don't want to do – I don't want to – like AJ Brown is just – I think we're just a little bit too much with him. So let me say this.

Jeff, you're – give me a sophomore wide receiver. Like, how do you look at the sophomore wide receivers? It was a really, really strong year last year for the rookies, okay? A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, D.K. Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, Darius Slayton, a little bit of Marquise Brown. Do you see any stars there, fantasy stars so you're not talking sleeper you're talking actual stars yeah breakouts i guess but players are right go ahead i'm warming i'm warming up on debo samuel he's again he's got that it factory he's got the dynamic uh he single-handedly took that job from dante pett. I haven't seen a rise and a fall of somebody like Pettis in quite some time.

But, yeah, so Samuel. And, you know, as far as a sleeper goes, too, especially given the Tyreek Hill halo that we're in the middle of right now, Marquise Brown, I think, has some potentially. He didn't play last year. He wasn't healthy all year. And a lot of Dynasty leaguers have tossed him completely out with the bathwater. And so, yeah, so I really think that Marquise Brown has some upside there.

I've seen I've seen him go for some trade and trade value. It's like, geez, that's something I would take without. Without a second of thought, that's how I usually determine my trades and whether or not it's a good trade, is if I'm going to lose sleep making the trade. Somebody like Marquise Brown, I think there's tremendous upside. I think right now, based on how low he is, I think he has sleeper status. And that's not something you can throw around at DLF, is sleeper status. We don't like to choose the mainstream guys. Like a Leonard Fournette.

You could say he had a poor productive season last year and that he's going to bounce back. Possible with threefold touchdown increase, but I wouldn't call him a sleeper. But somebody like Marquise Brown, I think as a sophomore receiver, I think he's got tremendous upside. First receiver off the board in the NFL draft in 2019. Yeah, I think. A very good by-law. Absolutely. Let's do another comparison. Would you rather have Stefan Diggs or Terry McLaurin in Dynasty?

Who's that to? Is that to me? Yeah, you go first. The guest of honor, go first. McLaurin. So, yeah, give me scary, because I, you know, the strange thing is I've, I haven't been a fan of digs really since he came into the league yet at the end of last year, the second half of last year. And then he started out, of course, he was so cold the first half of

last year, and then finally came on second half. And I started warming up to him. I started seeing the consistency. I started seeing the target share, and then he goes and gets traded to Buffalo and Buffalo wide receivers to me are, um, it a little bit like perhaps Chicago quarterbacks. It's to me, Buffalo is where wide receivers go to die. And I I've had some back and forth on social with individuals that are saying, hey, but John Brown went to Buffalo and immediately became a top receiver. And he did. And as to that argument, I would say, welcome to your wide receiver three, John Brown. You're not going to, I think he finished, correct me if I'm wrong. I'm going to say he's finished about the wide receiver 17. I could, I could get that data here in a second,

but there's no way that I'm going to draft John Brown as a wide receiver too. And John Brown probably put up the most statistically relevant number wide receiver that we've seen in some time going back to maybe Eric Mould molds peerless price uh i think one year sammy watkins yeah watkins is he was pretty good uh brown i have him as 18th and non ppr 20th and ppr uh but yeah right around 17 right and there's no way that i'm drafting him there so i'm taking mclaren there's just something about his mindset his maturity his route running and he's the wide receiver one clearly on that team now of course so is digs but no give me mclaurin he says mclaurin ben i have them almost identical i do have digs slightly higher but you guys know i've always been

really high on digs um i i'm i i agree with everything jeff just said i'm i'm a little bit more of the mind that digs is more talented than a lot of the receivers that have played in buffalo for several seasons and particularly when you look at his last two years together last year he didn't get a lot of targets he was very much in a downfield role the year before he had nearly 150 targets in a much closer to the line of scrimmage role his average depth of target actually jumped more than six yards between those two years, which is just a huge jump from the Michael Thomas, Juju Smith-Schuster underneath range

to Will Fuller, Deshaun Jackson, deep threat range. And he was productive in both roles. So I think the upside for Diggs as he goes to Buffalo and he finally is a real number one that isn't kind of pigeonholed like Minnesota maybe was putting him into certain roles and he's getting a real number one that isn't kind of pigeonholed like Minnesota maybe was putting him into certain roles and he's getting targets at all depths and if he does that I think he can have the type of year that Allen Robinson just had with Mitchell Trubisky a similarly inaccurate quarterback where he gets close to 150 targets and can have a top 10 season

in Buffalo all right I'm going to ask you guys a quarterback comparison that involves number one pick Joe Burrow right after this quick break on fantasy football today. Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone and celebrate every highlight real play. And as an official sportsbook partner of the NFL, BetMGM is the best place to fuel your football fandom on every game day. With a variety of exciting features, BetMGM offers you plenty of seamless ways to jump straight onto the gridiron and to embrace peak sports action. Ready for another season of gridiron glory?

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Who would you rather have in Dynasty, Joe Burrow or Russell Wilson? Jeff, you can go first. Wilson, clearly. Ooh, clearly. All right. Ben? Yeah, I'm taking Wilson too. Yeah, similar to the Beckham, AJ Brown thing. I think Wilson will be better for at least the next three years.

So I'll take that. I guess I should have made this harder. Joe Burrow or Matt Ryan. Burrow easily. So who's the guy that I asked, Joe Burrow or this guy, that makes anybody think for half a second? I'm actually good with that question. I'm good with the Ryan and Burrow because to me it's –

okay, so if you're talking about in a vacuum, I'm probably going to go Burrow. However, with Ryan – now I have a different approach to quarterbacks. I mean you take a look at my dynasty rankings out on DLF. I would much rather have production now and then have a developmental starter in the waiting in the wings. And especially when you take a look at the point disparity or the lack of point disparity at quarterbacks right now, you get outside, you know, the top four or five, and then you've just got this, this big mishmash of quarterbacks give me somebody like matt ryan who's probably got another three or four years of solid productivity he's probably not going to give you top five numbers but he's going to be somewhere in that

let's say eight to twelve range pretty consistently and he's got great he's got great receivers so give me that production from from that position and it's something you don't have to think about. But if I'm just starting a dynasty team and I'm looking for developmental upside, I'll draft Burrow, and then I would still pair him with somebody like a Ryan or, heck, I'd even be fine pairing him with a Tom Brady or a Drew Brees for a year or two just to get that top five, top six, top seven potential. Heath, I don't feel like I'm doing very well with these comparisons. Why don't you come up with one? In Dynasty, would you rather have player A or player B? I think you're doing a great job, and your perceptions probably have a better chance of being closer to Ben's than mine right now, it seems like. I will say Devin Singletary or kareem hunt i love it that's great all right jeff you can start devin singletary or kareem hunt hunt ben i will take singletary

i will take kareem hunt how about you he uh back-to-back, so I don't think it's definitive at all, but I have Kareem Hunt one spot ahead of Singletary. I don't know. We know that Hunt is stuck behind Nick Chubb or with Nick Chubb for at least one more season, although when we talk about those two, I'm not sure we mentioned the upside of one of them getting hurt enough. If you draft Kareem Hunt in the fifth round and Nick Chubb gets hurt

this year, you've got a top five running back. Yeah, absolutely. Um, and the same thing with Nick Chubb, like he's got a little bit of extra upside there that doesn't really get factored in.

Hunt's a really tough one to value. Cause you're right. He's that good, but he's stuck behind an even better running back, in my opinion. And he's going to be 25 before the season starts. And we know running backs kind of start slowing down on the backside of 25. So it's a little bit tough. You want a wide receiver one, Adam?

Yeah, sure. We'll do one more. Let's see. Adam Thielen. Or... Let's see. Adam Thielen or Brandon Cooks? Jeff, you're up. Can I pass? Oh, I'm going to take the upside of Cooks in that offense, potentially as the wide receiver one. I've never been a Thielen fan, and I think there's also a lot of risk with Thielen right now because they now have Justin Jefferson there in that offense. It's going to be a little bit of a battle on who's

out of the slot. I think they're going to have to kick Thielen out wide, probably to the X, and I think that's a good reason to fade Thielen this year. Cooks, to me, it's all about his concussions. If he stays healthy, I think he's got the upside. I don't see him replacing DeAndre Hopkins, which I think we would all admit was a complete shocker ahead of the draft. But give me Cooks and the upside there in the ceiling. Thank you so much, Jeff, for bringing some sense to Adam Thielen's 2020 projection, because everyone besides me at CBS seems to think he's a second round redraft pick.

And in all of our mocks, he goes in the second round. And I look crazy. Today we're in the third round. So take it easy. What, 301? No, I got him with like the ninth pick of the third round. No. Yes, I did.

Today. It just happened like an hour ago okay well that's the first time that's happened i was shocked that i got him so yes yes that's the first time that's happened all off it was 0.5 ppr i'll point out but i i do have feeling slightly ahead of cooks because i'm really concerned about those concussions but uh and i think this was a good a good comparison but i I just love what Jeff had to say about Thielen because we are way too high on him. All right. So you would rather A.J. Brown or Adam Thielen?

A.J. Brown. This year? Yes. That is absurd. You are on. Like, that is absolutely absurd. How many passes do you think the Vikings are going to throw? You're so worried about pass volume.

I think the Vikings will probably throw more than the Titans, but both will throw more than they did last year. Let's talk about rookies, Jeff. What did you think about this year's rookie class? You talked about how deep it was. What are your overall takeaways from the rookies?

I love this rookie class. To me, I thought it was what are your overall takeaways from the rookies i love this rookie class it's uh to me i thought it was going to rival 2014 and dare i say it was also the most riveting draft we've had i mean from top to bottom i can't remember being so tuned into a draft really from rounds one all the way through round seven it's an incredibly deep rookie class. It does drop off pretty quickly right as we reach about that, oh, I'd say pick 13, 14, 15 range. But almost regardless of what you're looking for in your rookies, this draft has it. And I'm really excited about this rookie class and I'm all in. I think people, though, were a little bit disappointed that Jonathan Taylor has to deal with Marlon Mack, DeAndre Swift has to deal with Kerryon Johnson, Cam Akers is in a timeshare, and J.K. Dobbins, who just heard from the GM today in Baltimore,

Eric DaCosta, he thinks J.K. Dobbins is a three-down back, but he has to deal with Mark Ingram. And then obviously there's Damian Williams. But none of the running backs got put into these obvious situations where they're going to be right out of the gate studs in year one. Do you feel the same way? Yeah. And that's why you always, if you're looking to get the most value for your draft picks,

that's why you always trade your draft selections ahead of the draft when they carry the most value, because outside of the 1.01, in most cases following the draft, you're going to lose value on those picks. Now, I am probably the only person in Dynasty that has Jonathan Taylor as my RB3. And I could drop him down to RB4 pretty easily. In fact, of the five rookies, not running backs, but I have him as the overall rookie number five out of this class. You've got to tell us who the top five is. Let's get the top five. Okay, so we've got, let me, DeAndre Swift

is number one for me, followed by CEH, so Edward Solaire. Jerry Judy is number three, CeeDee Lamb at four, and then Taylor at five, and then of course I've got Akers at six. Yeah, that is pretty interesting. I think I'm more interested to know why you went with DeAndre Swift one. And the thing is, man, Detroit has been basically the worst place for running backs year after year. Reggie Bush, 2013, their last thousand yard rusher.

I mean, it's been a hell for running back. So Dondre Swift, number one, Jeff. Yeah, for me, Detroit, and it's tough because Detroit is where running backs go to die. To me, Buffalo is where wide receivers go to die. However, I'm not going to discount what I've seen on tape. And just because a team has been bad in the past doesn't mean that they're going to be bad going forward. Although Detroit makes it pretty easy to go with that statement.

But I think there's little argument that Swift is the purest three down back out of this class in my mind. You could make an argument for Dobbins. In fact, for a, for a brief second, or as my daughter would say, as a hot second, I did have Dobbins over Taylor just recently. And then I had to, I had to push, I had to flip flop them back just because of Taylor's upside. Now that's not to say that I don't like Taylor, but Swift is the three down back. Carry on Johnson, I think is going to be faded in that offense very, very quickly. He can't stay healthy. I think it's only a matter of time. And Jonathan Taylor has a number of flags that you just can't ignore.

His number of carries, his fumbling issues, drop issues. He wasn't a third down specialist at all. Shaky third down pass pro because he wasn't on third downs. He has an enormous drop rate and he is he is an early he is a prototypical early down back now sharing the backfield with Marlon back. Mac, who is. I think a good sleeper, he's almost reached sleeper status now because he has been faded so much by the dynasty community and let's not forget he's a free agent next year he's still only 24 when a healthy he puts up great numbers i think people that are selecting taylor are getting an early down workhorse and i see little way that the that the colts are going to use him on pass pro third down duties duties, and I think he's going to be a little bit pigeonholed as an early down back. It's pretty interesting.

I want to ask all of you, because Jeff just mentioned films, watching film. I don't mean this question in a condescending way, but seriously, we have to be self-critical here, right? I didn't play football. I don't know anything about football. I don't know how many of you guys did, but we all have to watch whatever we can watch and kind of make our evaluations.

How much do you trust your ability to evaluate a player when you watch him as opposed to maybe looking at statistics, reading scouting reports, things like that? I'd love to know how much of that goes into your player profiling and how much stake you put into your own evaluations with your own eyes. And Jeff, I'll start with you. Yeah, that is a great question. And if you read any of my stuff on DLF, I always say over and over again in every one of my articles where I'm talking about

watching tape and where we're profiling the rookies and then forecasting them to the next level. You've got to trust those individuals that you're following. If you try to follow Twitter and social, you're going to get a lot of hype. Now, that's not to say that I'm not watching what's going on out there. I watch a lot of tape and I've learned to trust my evaluations. That doesn't mean that they're not open, that I'm not open to seeing something different. If I happen to see, you know, a Gil Brandt or a Greg Cosell or somebody that I really trust out there in the analyst community that has a very different view on a player, I'll go back and take a look to see if I've missed something. But it's my player tape review that led me away from Trent Richardson. And I think I was probably one of the only fantasy analysts saying I wouldn't do it. In fact, I liked Trent

Richardson at the time less than I like Jonathan Taylor. But I'm not going to fall for Jonathan Taylor's speed trap either just because he ran a 4.38 or 4.39 in the 40. I trust my take review immensely. And then I fold in what I'm hearing from other analysts that I trust. And there are some very good analysts out there on Twitter and social. There's no doubt about that. But I'm willing to put what I see out there in my articles. And sometimes it means that I'm going to have a DeAndre Swift number one overall. And I really don't care if I catch flack over that. Now, the interesting thing about me saying DeAndre Swift is first overall on my rankings list, if I was drafting and I do have a 1.01, I'm going to be taking CEH first overall. So just because DeAndre Swift is my top ranked back for skill set. I've seen him go as little as low as 1.07. I was just in a draft

where he went at 1.07. I was trying really hard to trade up. I was trying to trade up into the four, the five, the six. I mean, I was burning up the keyboard trying to get my hands on Swift as he was falling. But I would take CEH at 1.01 just because he carries so much capital. Then you still have the ability to draft back, excuse me, trade back if you want, using him as trade bait, maybe to get Swift and another pick. But if I could get Swift and the 1.10 for CEH, I'd do it because I think CEH is going to be, I love his situation. And he is really close to that 1.01. I mean, he and Swift are back to back. And I was out at the combine and I talked to a number of lot more tape to figure out exactly what it was they were seeing. And I started seeing it. But before he was so far down on the list, he's not where I was spending my time.

So these this is why you have to do your own research. But then you fold in what you're hearing and seeing from the draft community on top of it. That's fascinating, actually. Heath, same question to you. And how much you factor in what you see with your eyes yeah that's not like i am not anti-film at all and i get really irritated with the film versus numbers arguments because they're both obviously matter a lot um but i'm not doing a lot of film evaluation i there are there are lots of people um that do film evaluation that i think do a very very good job of it and uh i have those that i that i trust and then uh the metrics i think matter a lot more to me probably ben

yeah i mean i watch a lot uh a film probably more than what he's saying but i also tend to uh be similar to him in that i'm going to lean more towards objective things and trust other people's opinions more but um i yeah i think heath kind of explained it well i don't i don't discount that and i and i really enjoyed just hearing jeff's opinion on several of those players and how his process works because i think that all can be very helpful. Yeah, actually, Jeff, I want to follow up. What did you notice about Clyde Edwards' e-layer that when you went back and studied the film that did impress you? And what do you think about his speed? Because I've been a little concerned about the 40 time, 4.6. That's not a good sign for a running back typically,

but then it was pointed out Kareem Hunt at the same 40 times. So, um, you know, what, what did you, what did you see in your film breakdown of Clyde Edwards? You there?

My, my first review wasn't enough. And so what I was looking for is I was looking to see his ability to be able to fill a solid, uh, third down, be a solid third down option. And when I started hearing more about his toughness running inside between the tackles,

his ability to get skinny through the hole, you know, his first step to the line of scrimmage, being able to read, react, and then get his shoulders downfield and through that seam. That's really where I started watching more of his snaps. And so I wasn't watching just highlights. I was starting to go back to see, you know, this is where a lot of people make mistakes whenever they're watching tape review. They, they tend to watch just the highlight reels. You want to watch a lot more than that.

You want to watch every snap possible because you need to see those one, two yard runs as well, not just the 30 and 40. We all know that CEH can break off the big, go outside around the corner or perhaps get skinny, but we can see them in that second level really quickly. But what about his ability to churn out those three and four yard runs, fall forward? And I was amazed. And I am typically one that tends to fade size, meaning that if they're smaller, so receiver is less than six feet, I'm usually going to fade that. Running backs less than 5'10", I'm going to start fading them unless I see something that forces me to reconsider that valuation. And I always use MJD as the comparison for backs that are 5'8 and 5'7. I need to see that thick lower base.

I need to see them swivel above their hips. So I want to see almost a body that separates from the hips. So where the legs are swiveling below the body. And he's got that. And he's got that thick lower base. You can see it in his thighs. And then it also displays on tape whenever he tries to go, whenever he sees that seam and he hits it. He hits it with leverage and momentum that can't

be denied. And I didn't see that the first time through because I wasn't looking for it. That's pretty cool. That's a really excellent breakdown. All right. We got a few more questions for Jeff. We're going to get back to it in just one moment. We'll take another quick break here on Fantasy Football today. Be right back. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years,

Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations, or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada, insurance designed for life. All right, Jeff, let's ask some more Dynasty questions here.

Generally speaking, I thought what you said about trading picks before the draft was very interesting as a good dynasty strategy tip. Can you give us some more strategy tips for us dynasty leaguers? Like quarterbacks, I would say wait on the tight ends. It's amazing when you take a look at the tight ends, and I've been squawking about this for a long time, tight ends. It's a, it's an odd, when you take a look between 2000 and 2010, maybe 2012 or so when looking at drafted positions out of the first round that were nearly always hits tight end used to be it. Something has happened in the last eight years or so such that tight ends now aren't hitting in the first round. And if you take a look at, say, some of the top tight ends, you take a George Kittle, who I believe was a fifth rounder.

Take a look at a Travis Kelsey or a Mark Andrews, third round tight ends. I always fade tight ends in my draft unless it's a two tight end, you know, super flex type league with a tight end premium. But you can find those tight ends by being quicker than your competition. So you don't need to – sure, you need to fill the roster spot whenever you're doing your startup. But be very quick on your waiver wire and your free agency and waiver wire priority or your bid dollars. You can find those tight ends every year. There's always one or two of them that come out of nowhere and become top five, top six options. So that's one strategy I do. The other thing is a lot of people tend to fade the quarterback and I get it. I really do. But let me tell you, once you have a solid quarterback, like a Mahomes or Lamar Jackson, you're set for a long period of time.

And so one of my strategies, and I almost hate to give this away, except for, you know, we run a DLF and we run DLF. So we try to give away as much as possible. I often take my developmental tight end, excuse me, developmental quarterback somewhere between pick 12 and 17. That's where I got Mahomes. It's where you can get Lamar Jackson in single quarterback leagues. Don't be afraid to get the top quarterback off the board that perhaps just went from the NFL draft. Once you get somebody like Mahomes, now you're seeing that Mahomes halo. Jordan Love, Lamar Jackson, everybody's looking for that athletic quarterback. So sure, you're going to need somebody ahead of him like we discussed Matt Ryan earlier or Matt Stafford or an up and comer like a Sam Darnold, but don't be afraid to spend a second round pick and get who is likely a top five pick in the NFL draft. I think those are two right off the top that just about any dynasty leaguer

can do. And sure. You don't need to overdraft quarterbacks, but don't be afraid in the rookie draft to get your developmental quarterback earlier than what, than what normally would be possible. From your experience, how much value is there in a third-round pick of a rookie draft? Because to me, I feel like I went back just last year.

I looked at the third round of a mock rookie draft that we did, and almost everyone was useless and looks like they're going to be useless i guess the really the question is how many impact rookies do we get and if we don't get more than like 24 then should we just trade our third and fourth round rookie draft picks for anything we can get of use i love third round rookie picks oh okay yeah i i was smiling ear to ear while you're you're saying that. No, I truly love the third round rookie pick. And the reason why is because, to me, that's where a lot of those talented players tend to fall to better situation. Meaning that my dynasty competition, as soon as somebody goes to a better drafted situation, they tend to bump up

into that 18, 19, 20 range and to allow talented players to slip down into the third round. Now, make no mistake, you're absolutely right. I mean, you can go take a look at third round over the last 10 years, fantasy third rounds, and you're going to find a waste. It's a graveyard. It's a fantasy wasteland of picks. But I found that for me, it's not that much different than round two. I mean, you're probably looking at something about a 15% to 20% chance of getting a hit, which isn't bad in the third round, but that's where I've always done some of my best work, especially at receiver, is finding those players

into change of circumstance on teams, into free agency for the next year, meaning that they're getting drafted into what looks to be a poor situation, but they have one or two free agents, excuse me, one or two existing receivers that are going to be free agents and may not come back. So they get upgraded based on change of circumstance. All right. Guys, do you have any thoughts there? Anything you want to contribute? I think, and this doesn't get said quite enough, but it does get

said a lot. Don't get caught in the middle with your Dynasty roster. Especially, I, in a startup, am pretty likely, after two or three rounds, to decide, okay, I'm just going to try to win year one. But I don't want to get stuck in a position where I've got a sixth-place roster.

Be first or be last. Questions for you, Jeff, to end the show, some kind of random stuff. Who is the one player that you cannot forgive for letting you down in fantasy? Like ever? Yeah, like C.J. Spiller for me comes to mind because I loved C.J. Spiller. There's actually two, and they're neck and neck, and I cringe every time. Donald Jones, Brandon Jackson. This fantasy football is littered with guys like that.

Oh, geez, yeah. I also got stuck with the whole Troy Williamson. I mean, going back a bit. I thought he was going to be the answer for Randy Moss departing. And no, he wasn't the answer. I barely remember Brandon Jackson. That was 2010. He had 190 carries.

I don't know what you really bought in him. I loved him. He had the prototypical size i always look for my running backs to be 510 511 right in that 212 to 215 to 217 range he was able to get skinny through the hole he had three down potential and he ended up in fact he had a couple of nice games i was like here it comes and there it went and of course donald jones everybody will just remember his damn it donald uh from because he played with peyton manning and peyton was always saying damn it donald and uh yeah he was but he killed me uh all right ben i'm gonna throw that

question to you who's the one player you can't forgive Ooh. I don't even have one that comes to mind right away. Heath John Baldwin. That's a good one. John Baldwin. All right, we'll go to our next one. Jeff, the best trade you ever made in Dynasty. Do you have one that you're still making fun of some guy for the last five years and you ripped him off? Oh, this is awesome.

Also, another one that you can't forgive cory davis yeah i just thought of uh josh gordon who i chased for too long yeah i had him for a little bit too okay so last year i have a it's probably my highest price league that i play in. And I have a, I have a stupid competitive team. We're talking, you know, Patrick Mahone, Ezekiel Elliott, Deshaun Watson. I mean, it is top to bottom. And so one of the things that I did is I, into the last year's draft, I traded away my own pick knowing that it was going to be a good pick, but I don't even remember exactly what I traded away for one of them.

But on one of the, one of the picks, I ended up trading away my first rounder. That's what it was. I traded away, had traded away my first rounder, but then I, I don't even remember how I did this, but I ended up with two other first rounders here in 2020. And those picks turned into picks one and three. Nice. Because I typically, whenever I make trades for draft picks, I look for, I try to forecast the other teams and who I think is going to perform poorly.

And then I target those particular selections. Well, of those two picks that I acquired, I traded away mine, which ended up being pick 10 or 11. And I ended up getting picks one and three back, which is just probably my best trade ever. That's pretty awesome. And then finally, let's say we have people who have never done a Dynasty League or maybe they're just unhappy with theirs. Tell me the best format how many rounds how many starters how many at each position you know give me how many do you keep keep everyone whatever it is give me your dynasty format your ideal one i love really deep rosters and the reason why i like really deep rosters is because i believe that talent needs to exist on rosters and not as part of your waiver wire, meaning that you don't want your competition or coaches to be able to build quality teams off the waiver wire. So if you're playing in an IDP league, I like to recommend no less than 35 players per roster.

And I play in one that has 40, 42 right now, is IDP. So I would say minimum roster without IDP for me, 30. I love PPR. I'm getting into the super flex a little bit, but to me, it creates a little bit of too much of a have and have not type situation it's tough to compete with somebody that's got two great quarterbacks and so I really prefer just the vanilla PPR league I don't even care for tight end premium I'll play it and it's perfectly fine but I don't think that overweights any of the positions that much and as far as the starting roster requirements it give me one running back and starting and so one quarterback starting one run running back, two wide receivers, and then either two or three flex positions. And the reason

why is because you have greater scarcity at the running back position. Once you have the ability to start one running back, and then you force two wide receivers, it gives the league and the coaches in that league flexibility for how they're drafting. Do they want to go running back heavy? Do you want to go wide receiver heavy? As soon as you force two running backs, you're going to force running backs towards the top of the draft. And I really like to see flexibility and to allow strategy to play out in the draft for your coaches. So that way they get to determine how they want to draft and build and construct their team. Why not way they get to determine how they want to draft and construct their team.

Why not add more flex spots if you're going to have so many roster spots? I mean, that's one thing that drives me crazy about the Dynasty League I'm in. So I got so many roster spots that I can barely start any of them. Do you have any leagues where you're starting 10, 12 guys, a lot of flex spots, anything like that? Yeah, I have, I have, you know, we have started phasing out kickers and defense as well. And most of most of the leagues that I play in and primarily, you know, I'm fine with starting, you know, three players or so, three flex spots. I'm fine with that. I'd be fine with more than

that as well. The, the problem with starting so many flex players, at least in my estimation, and it's not really a problem, but it starts to bail. The curve starts flattening a little bit. And so I don't want to say that you're getting into kind of a best ball type situation because you're not, but you're starting to now just, you're increasing the amount of luck. I mean, any one player that can really go off. I really love to see the talent rise to the top. And whenever you have a dynasty coach and a dynasty team, that's really done the work to amass or trade, to acquire those particular positions, they deserve to have the strength on that roster starting on a weekly basis and not be bailed out by say, maybe your, your third or fourth flex position,

if that makes sense. No, it does. Well, Jeff, thank you very much. Everybody get yourself to dynasty league, football.com.

Amazing content there. And, uh, Jeff, we really appreciate it. It was a lot of fun. Yeah, it was a lot of fun.

Hopefully you'll have me back. I really love being on. Thanks for the opportunity. Absolutely. We will definitely have you back. Heath and Ben. thank you as well. Everybody have a great day. We've got an episode coming later on Friday.

We're going to react to the schedule. I'm going to tell you why I am completely done with Amari Cooper. I have complete 180 on Amari Cooper. I'll talk about that on Friday evening show. We're going to record that at 4pm on Friday, so you should get it around 5pm. Have a great weekend, everybody. We'll talk to record that I think like 4 p.m. on Friday. So you should get it around 5 p.m.

And have a great weekend, everybody. We'll talk to you next time on Fantasy Football Today.