Fantasy Football Today - Dynasty Tiers: Position-by-Position Ranking Breakdown! (06/10 Dynasty Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 10, 2025

Heath Cummings is joined by Theo Gremminger to sort QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs into draft tiers to help you decide who to pick and when. Intro (0:00) QB Tiers (3:29) RB Tiers (14:27) WR Tiers (28:45) TE ...Tiers (45:49) Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube⁠ https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday⁠ SUBSCRIBE to FFT Express on Apple: ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-express/id1528634304⁠ Follow FFT Express on Spotify: ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/6qyGWfETSBFaciPrtvoWCC?si=6529cbee20634da8⁠ SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179⁠ FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1⁠ SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837⁠ FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2⁠ Follow our FFT team on Twitter:⁠ @FFToday⁠,⁠ @AdamAizer⁠,⁠ @JameyEisenberg⁠,⁠ @daverichard⁠,⁠ @heathcummingssr⁠ Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: ⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday⁠ Join our Facebook group⁠ https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/⁠ Sign up for the FFT newsletter⁠ https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter⁠ You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." Visit the ⁠betting arena on CBSSports.com⁠ for all the latest ⁠sportsbook reviews⁠ and ⁠sportsbook promos⁠. Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube⁠⁠⁠ https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday⁠⁠⁠ SUBSCRIBE to FFT Express on Apple: ⁠⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-express/id1528634304⁠⁠⁠ Follow FFT Express on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/6qyGWfETSBFaciPrtvoWCC?si=6529cbee20634da8⁠⁠⁠ SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: ⁠⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1⁠⁠⁠ SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: ⁠⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2⁠⁠⁠ Follow our FFT team on Twitter:⁠⁠⁠ @FFToday⁠⁠⁠,⁠⁠⁠ @AdamAizer⁠⁠⁠,⁠⁠⁠ @JameyEisenberg⁠⁠⁠,⁠⁠⁠ @daverichard⁠⁠⁠,⁠⁠⁠ @heathcummingssr⁠⁠⁠ Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday⁠⁠⁠ Join our Facebook group⁠⁠⁠ https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for the FFT newsletter⁠⁠⁠ https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter⁠⁠⁠ You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." Visit the ⁠⁠⁠betting arena on CBSSports.com⁠⁠⁠ for all the latest ⁠⁠⁠sportsbook reviews⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠sportsbook promos⁠⁠⁠. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Whether it's a family member, friend or furry companion joining your summer road trip, enjoy the peace of mind that comes with Volvo's legendary safety. During Volvo Discover Days, enjoy limited time savings as you make plans to cruise through Muskoka or down Toronto's bustling streets. From now until June 30th, lease a 2025 Volvo XC60 from 1.74% and save up to $4,000. You can get the $25,000 Volvo XC60 from 1.74% and save up to $4,000. Conditions apply. Visit your GTA Volvo retailer or go to volvocars.ca for full details. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today, Dynasty. I am your host, Heath Cummings, joined by my good friend and many-time guest, Theo Griminger.
Starting point is 00:00:43 Theo, it's always great to have you here. I know everybody already knows where to find you, but I'd like to give you a chance that's top of the show. Just talk about what you've been doing and where they can find your work. Yeah, you can find all my work over at Fantasy Points. I also do some articles for the athletic, but almost all of its over at Fantasy Points. Dynasty Life, Heath has been on several times my Dynasty show over at Fantasy Points. Dynasty Life Heath has been on several times. My Dynasty Show over at Fantasy Points
Starting point is 00:01:07 and Fantasy Points YouTube. Fantasy Football Today, I'm dropping several episodes a week. And then School of Scott with Scott Barrett. Today's guest is actually Jacob Gibbs. We're recording today with Jacob Gibbs. So it's back to back CBS content creators for me. But everything over at Fantasy Points,
Starting point is 00:01:25 you can find my dynasty rankings, my redraft rankings, all of my articles, Fantasy Points, that's where you can find me. Maybe you guys can answer a question that I asked Jacob the last time he was on this show. I said, I love all this information about these quarter racks and their accuracy on a variety of types of throws and a variety of types of circumstances.
Starting point is 00:01:44 I said, Jacob, can you, next time you come on, can you have some indication of how sticky this is? I want to know if these guys that were good at these certain things were good at these things last year, or if it's just kind of like, you know, Patrick Mahomes had a bad year in terms of accuracy. that year in terms of accuracy? Yeah, I mean, I think, I think a lot of those, when a quarterback shows you what a positive outcome could look like, we'll keep chasing those sort of returns, Heath. Like guys will regress because guys sometimes, unfortunately, balls get tipped. You throw more, you throw more interceptions than touchdowns. But when guys show you elite arm strength, elite accuracy, you choose to believe them
Starting point is 00:02:25 and history can sort of repeat itself. So yeah, I love all the Jacob Gibbs stuff, but I will say recording with him and Scott Barrett on the same show, and I was like, let's talk about the 12 most important stats to know for this season. And I basically gave myself a homework assignment because these guys were so detail oriented
Starting point is 00:02:43 in their analytical takes. Jacob is coming out with like so many amazing stats. So last night, I actually put so much work into it. So a big shout out to both of those guys, but super, super sharp guests like yourself. Yeah, I'm looking forward to it. Should be a good time. Listen, we generally start our show with three questions for our guests. I've asked Theo a lot of questions in the past. I'm gonna ask him a lot of questions in the next hour. We have a jam packed show talking about dynasty tiers. And so we're just going to jump right into them. I'll tell you, we're going to talk about my top three tiers
Starting point is 00:03:16 at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end in that order. I am publishing those tiers this week. Quarterback went up yesterday, running backs going up today. They'll all be up by the end tiers this week. Quarterback went up yesterday, running backs going up today. They'll all be up by the end of the week. Go to cbs.cbssports.com slash fantasy. Check out those tiers in full.
Starting point is 00:03:33 I've got nine or 10 tiers per position. We're just going to talk about the top guys. I have some questions for Theo after I reveal some of these tiers, but I'm also giving him a special power. He's been here on the show enough times that he is allowed when I unveil a tier before I ask my question, just say stop because Theo's noticed something in the tiers
Starting point is 00:03:55 that he wants to ask me about. You've got a little power, Theo's most power I've ever given anyone else on this show. We'll see how it goes. Let's start at the quarterback position. And I don't think we're going to have any dispute over this show. We'll see how it goes. Let's start at the quarterback position. And I don't think we're going to have any dispute over this one. My tier one, Jaden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, I've said it before already this off season, I don't really care what order you want to rank those three guys in. Maybe it depends on where your team's
Starting point is 00:04:22 at right now, or maybe it depends on just who your personal preference is. But I feel pretty strongly, whether it's four-point per pass touchdown or six-point per pass touchdown, those are my top three quarterbacks in the tiers. Should these, Theo, be the top three picks in all Superflex startups? Yes, I think so. I think that these three guys give you a really an elite edge when you're doing a startup draft. And they all have that incredible rushing upside. With Alan and Lamar Jackson, we have a massive sample size of production. And with Jaden Daniels, there's just so much to like. The second most fantasy points ever scored by a rookie quarterback last year was a top-five scorer, and that was with a middling offensive line, a lack of a wide receiver, too. Washington has addressed everything this offseason. So I absolutely put Jaden Daniels up there. If you want to split hairs and you want to let age be the guide for you, then Jaden Daniels can be the 101 in your Super super flex startups, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.
Starting point is 00:05:26 Nothing really needs to be said. Those guys are absolute fantasy football weapons of mass destruction. I'm going to ask one more question about these, about those two specifically. And I may have asked you before, I've asked a lot of people on this show, but we're, we're going into this season. When we get to week one, Lamar is going to be 28. Alan's going to be 29 for quarterbacks in general, that age does not concern us at all. They probably still have a longer runway than any running back does. But a lot of their production comes in the same way that running back production does with their legs.
Starting point is 00:05:57 Do you look at their age and maybe specifically starting next year when one of them turns 30, as any more troublesome as it might be than it might be for a Joe Burrow or a Patrick Mahomes or do you just think these guys are going to play the next 10 years like they have? It's really hard for us to project anybody 10 years down the line. I think with our quarterbacks in dynasty, we can legitimately make a five-year bet with these guys based on just how good they are, their contract insulation, the fact that they're absolute superstars where if something happened to happen in Buffalo or Baltimore, there would be 15 teams ready to trade the farm for them. But really, when it comes to these two guys, I don't worry about it. I think they're also both very high IQ football players. These guys are not really taking massive hits continually. Heath, like we've seen Lamar Jackson miss some time in years past.
Starting point is 00:06:48 Uh, but these guys are very efficient with their, with, with their runs. I don't really worry at all. And like you said, 28 and 29, these guys are going to be really good right up until age 35. Excellent. We'll, we'll move to tier two at the quarterback position. And we were, we are starting, I will say the first two tiers with about the least controversial takes that I have because my tier two Joe burrow, Jalen hurts Patrick Mahomes.
Starting point is 00:07:11 It seems like I look at ADP. I look at any rankings list. These six quarterbacks are the top six, the top three is almost this, always the same. The next three is almost always the same. Would you say that burrow hurts in my homes are closer to tier those tier one guys or closer to the guys in tier three? I think that they're closer to the tier one guys, especially when it comes to Joe Burrow and Jalen hurts. My homes is sort of his own thing because he's been just so good.
Starting point is 00:07:42 He's one of the most talented players, if not the best quarterback of all time. I think he's in that discussion. But his career trajectory has become a little bit more like Tom Brady, where his best attribute is winning football games, not necessarily putting up incredible fantasy football numbers. Now, that being said, they could be way more wide receiver centric this year.
Starting point is 00:08:02 They're certainly going to be younger with the weapons that Mahomes has. So having Mahomes at QB6 where you have him and where I have him, it makes you a little bit uncomfortable because it feels like if things didn't go his way in terms of like the game flow in Kansas City defense, you could see another just unbelievable Patrick Mahomes season. You're like, why did we let him go as QB6 and in the Dynasty startup? But I think when it comes to Joe Burrow, it's, everything's set up for him to sort of give you a peak Peyton Manning-like season at some point in the near future. 50 touchdown passes for him, I think, is very much in a realistic possibility this year. And
Starting point is 00:08:42 Jalen Hurts has been one of the most efficient runners of the football we've ever seen. Certainly the tush push has benefited him, but just in terms of rushing yards per game, Jalen Hurts is one of the best we've ever seen. This is also a player that is a little bit younger. Like Jalen Hurts, I believe 26 years old, 26 years old for Jalen Hurts.
Starting point is 00:09:04 So he's three years younger than like a Josh Allen two years younger than Lamar Jackson. And the offensive ecosystem around him, even though the passing volume is not quite there. We really believe in AJ Brown, we believe in Devonta Smith, and certainly playing next to Saquon Barkley makes him just an absolutely lethal threat. So I think those guys are appropriately priced. If you wanted to have Mahomes sort of in his own little bubble as the QB6, I think I'm okay doing that.
Starting point is 00:09:32 It's sort of sacrilege in fantasy football to push him below those guys, but at the end of the day, it's about fantasy points, it's about scoring fantasy points and Mahomes just has not been putting up those type of weekly spike weeks, really over the last two seasons. I would be more okay with dropping Mahomes to a third tier in four point for passing touchdown leads in the six. I think you have to leave him here.
Starting point is 00:09:55 Let's just jump into my monstrous tier three, only three quarterbacks in the first two tiers. That's because I feel some certainty about those guys. After that, we have Caleb Williams, Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Bo Nix, Justin Herbert, Drake May, CJ Stroud, and Cam Ward. Now there's one guy, I think if you've listened to me talk about the quarterback position in dynasty the last few months, that you know I'm higher on than just about everybody else, that is not in this tier right now it's Justin Fields that's because I made a specific effort with this set of tiers to focus on Super Flex leagues and Fields lack of
Starting point is 00:10:33 a floor beyond this year knocks him out of that tier for me if I was a 1QB tiering then he would definitely be in this tier 3 group as well but what these guys have in common and have as an advantage over Justin Fields is they're all relatively young, 27 or younger at the start of the season. I expect all of them to be the starters for their team for multiple years in the future. And most of them, except for Williams, May and Ward,
Starting point is 00:11:02 I feel pretty good about them being high end QB twos for that stretch. Williams, May and Ward, the youth, the upside, the potentials doing a little bit more work to get them into this tier. But I also recognize my tier three is bigger than most tiers I see out there. Most, most people have like a four or five guys from this group that they definitely like better than the rest. So, is there a couple of guys who you think are your clear favorites, or a couple of guys who you think just don't belong in this tier? Well, I think that the second-year quarterbacks like Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, Drake May, they're certainly steaming up in terms of Dynasty startup value.
Starting point is 00:11:46 We're seeing a lot of people sort of backing a massive breakout for Caleb Williams. We saw a huge FFPC Dynasty League where he went ahead of Mahomes even. So I think people are really trusting in Ben Johnson, trusting in the profile and giving Caleb Williams sort of a pass for what we saw during his rookie season. I think Bo Nix is a little bit underrated, Heath, to be honest with you. Like, Bo Nix is a guy that was unbelievable last year, really, really tight with the football, didn't throw interceptions, had an unbelievable completion percentage, 29 touchdown passes, set a record for the Denver Broncos.
Starting point is 00:12:21 Like, what he did for Denver was not quite what Jaden Daniels did for Washington, but it was sort of the Jaden Daniels light version. And Bo Nix heading into year two, for me, he's been sort of the mispriced player this offseason. I was able to get him in, like, the early third round of a Superflex startup. I thought that was tremendous value. And I think he could be sort of the cheat code player, also had over 400 rushing yards. So that could take another step forward. So, Bo Nix, I think I'm really high on all those guys. Justin Herbert's one where he's so talented. It's almost like the Patrick Mahomes light version here, where the offense
Starting point is 00:13:01 is not necessarily conducive for him putting up massive spike weeks. They want to run the ball. They have one elite pass catcher right now. Maybe Trey Harris gets there, but they're going to concentrate a lot of the targets to one pass catcher in Lad McConkie. But Justin Herbert is just so good, and he's also 27 years old. So I think those guys sort of are in their own mini-tier. Althorod, if you're going as wide as you are here,
Starting point is 00:13:26 consider J.J. McCarthy, because I think if J.J. McCarthy were a prospect in this 2025 draft class, he would have been really competing with Cam Ward for that No. 1 overall pick, has the mobility. And when we talk about the offensive ecosystem, besides Caleb Williams, like we all like kind of gushed over Caleb Williams' year the offensive ecosystem, besides Caleb Williams, we all gushed over Caleb Williams' year one offensive ecosystem,
Starting point is 00:13:50 and maybe we're a little like a year ahead, but in terms of the weapons he had around him. But J.J. McCarthy, I would argue, is in the best possible situation that we've ever seen a first-year quarterback in. He's got Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hawkinson. The offensive line picked up two starters this off season. They have a dual, dual threat running back with Jordan Mason joining Aaron Jones. And it's Kevin O'Connell
Starting point is 00:14:14 who we really trust as a play caller. So I would sort of push JJ McCarthy into that big, big tier you have if you're going to keep it that wide. Also exceedingly young prospect as well. you have if you're going to keep it that wide. Also exceedingly young prospect as well. Yeah, I think the youth and the lack of the experience is the only thing maybe and Ken Ward doesn't have it either. So McCarthy's certainly could join that tier, maybe even with a good training camp, definitely with a good week or two to start the season. Let's take our first break and then we'll get into my top three running back tiers. I kind of feel the same way about tier one at the running back position that I do
Starting point is 00:14:48 about tier one at the quarterback position. It's almost like, what do we say about these guys? Everybody agrees these are the top four running backs in dynasty. Maybe Theo doesn't agree, we'll find out. Bijon Robinson, Ashton Gentie, Jamir Gibbs, Devon Aitchin, that's my tier one at the running back position. You have anything interesting to say or you think I'm wrong here?
Starting point is 00:15:06 No, I mean, I think that the two of us, I think that the only thing that would maybe differ from some other analysts is our Infatuation and Confidence level in Devon Aitchin, sort of withstanding his early career success. There's always going to be people wanting to sort of push Aitchin out of this truly elite tier, despite him taking a big step forward last year with his pass catching ability. Like, HN I have very, very high up in my Redraft rankings, but Heath, the difference is between him and those other 3 guys, is those other 3 guys are locks to go inside of the 1st round in every single format right now in Redraft.
Starting point is 00:15:42 And you're able to get Achan inside of round two on underdog, on FFPC, sometimes in NFFC. So the general consensus is Achan is not gonna be quite as good as those guys this year. Doesn't have necessarily the ceiling outcome. But when Tua Tunga Valoa was healthy last year, you're talking about a guy who averaged over 22 points per game,
Starting point is 00:16:06 would have potentially threatened for the RB1 overall if Tua would have played the entire season. So I'm completely with you on A-chan being there. I think that would be the only thing where people might say, hold on, guys, let's have A-chan right behind those guys. Yeah, and I actually, we'll talk more about redraft as the season goes on. But I actually have a Chan projected ahead of Gibbs this year. And Adam Azer asked me on our last regular FFT podcast, who's your favorite mid to late round first first round pick? And I said a
Starting point is 00:16:36 Chan he said, Well, looking at ADP, you could have them in the middle of round two. I said, Well, that'd be fantastic. But I do think he's worth a first round pick just if if just about any running back is it would be him. Let's quickly go to tier two. I wrote about these guys today. Saquon Barkley, Kyron Williams. I'll use my power here and I'll go pause. I think for like for dynasty, a lot of times dynasty is played in windows
Starting point is 00:17:02 where guys are in sort of a win now mode. I think Saquon is really a two year bet here, because the way his contract is set up, the way Philadelphia is set up with Nick Sirianni now having insulation after winning the Super Bowl, like the Sirianni is going to move on from Philly, that ship is sailed. So really, I think Saquon can almost be in his own little mini tier. If the guys sort of with him in this tier I view Saquon as a better bet for this season and I view him as almost more Insulated for next season when it comes to Kyron the profile doesn't necessarily Stand up to the amount of volume that he's withstood
Starting point is 00:17:40 Also the fumbling issues last year a little bit more, putting pressure on him this year with Jarquis Hunter. With Breece Hall, who knows where he's playing his football in 2026. That could be a good thing or a bad thing. Jonathan Taylor doesn't catch passes and we're going to probably have a new quarterback for him this year and a new quarterback for him next year. Chase Brown, the profile, I love Chase Brown. I have him 20th in my redraft rankings, but the profile doesn't hold up when we're making a long-term bet. Day three draft capital, not necessarily the largest back out there, and had a ton of volume last year.
Starting point is 00:18:16 And then Bucky Irving, I love Bucky Irving, but Bucky Irving's peak outcome season this year is not near what Saquon is. So I almost view Saquon as a his own little mini tier. I have him at the RB five. And then I would argue that a couple of your even even revealed it to the listening audience. I can wait for you to reveal your tier three guys before we sort of re rank them. But from the get go here, I would sort of have Saquon in his own little mini tier. And he from a game theory perspective, when you're drafting Saquon in his own little mini tier. And he, from a game theory perspective, when you're drafting Saquon in a dynasty startup, you're sort of making a short-term window bet.
Starting point is 00:18:50 I mean, he's a super powered human in the realm of like a Derek Henry. But again, once we start getting to the 28, 29, Father Time's undefeated, even with Saquon. So Saquon, also the volume last year was just insane. The amount of touches he had over the last two seasons, 666 touches over the last two seasons. And that doesn't even include the fantasy playoffs where he was an absolute workhorse for Philly. So Saquon's a, you really have to be realistic and make a two-year bet on him. You really have to be realistic and make a two-year bet on him. But because he's a guy that could average 25 points per game, 20 points per game somewhere in that range this year,
Starting point is 00:19:29 I almost put him in his own little mini tier because it's a better short-term bet. And he's just a safer selection for me than the other younger backs surrounding him. Yeah, and I think most of the time, especially at the tops of my tiers, and we've talked about this before, do you want to look at like specific types of players and fits or do you just want to look at dynasty value and where they land in your dynasty value? I generally try to do the latter, although
Starting point is 00:19:55 when you get later in the tiers, I might just put five old running backs who were only good this year in the same tier. You could have maybe just read my article that I wrote this morning that hasn't published yet, so I know you didn't, but all the things you just said was what I said about this tier. For me, it's six guys that really would not surprise me if they finish top six. Saquon, it wouldn't surprise me if he finishes top one this year, and six guys that for a variety of reasons have a lot of concerns. Say Kwan's, it's the workload and the age. You get three day three running backs here, and Kyron Williams and Chase Brown and Bucky Irving, that at their age and what they've produced should be no doubt about it, top 10 dynasty running backs. But because they don't have second
Starting point is 00:20:44 contracts, because of what their initial draft capital is, people question them a little more. And what I found was interesting was I, you saw this, I ran some Twitter polls this morning just to get the perception of other people based on my values. And the thing that I found, which was unsurprising, nobody likes Kyron Williams as much as I do. I think he's fourth in PPR fantasy points per game over the last two seasons. And every time they draft a day two or day three running back, we're going to hear about how that guy is going to take touches away from Kyron Williams, even though the only thing Sean McVeigh's ever shown is that he'd really just like to give the ball to Kyron Williams over and over and over again.
Starting point is 00:21:22 So I, I understand that concern. I understand the concern with hall. I actually think Taylor's probably the safest of this group for the next two years besides Barkley, but his upside could be limited by that lack of pass catching. Um, it won't matter too much if he runs for 1500 yards and scores 15 touchdowns. But let's just jump into the tier three rookie running backs because I've got three running rookies in tier three with Ken Walker.
Starting point is 00:21:51 So Ken Walker, Trevion Henderson, Omari and Hampton and Quenshon Judkins. Theo is saying he'd rank at least a couple of these guys ahead of several of the guys in tier two. Um, Twitter would definitely rank Hampton, I think above everyone in this tier besides Saquon and Bucky Irving. Bucky Irving still has a lot of backers, unlike Kyron Williams, even though I'm not sure that Bucky Irving's peak performance is as good as what Kyron Williams has done the last two years.
Starting point is 00:22:19 But that's an, that's another point for another day. Henderson, Hampton, Walker and Judkins. You'd put both Henderson and Hampton ahead of several guys in Tier 2? So I would put Hampton right up there behind Saquon Barkley. I am head over heels for Hampton. You're talking about a first-round pedigree. You're talking about him landing on a team with a very good offensive line, an elite talent with a very good offensive line, an elite talent quarterback and a team that really, really wants to run. Last year with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards and Kamani Vidal, they were still like the 11th most run-heavy team in football in terms of rush attempts. Now they've significantly upgraded the position. I understand the Najee Harris fears out there. Najee's been a guy that's been on Dynasty rosters forever,
Starting point is 00:23:06 and he's had a thousand rushing yards every season as a pro. But when it comes down to it, they were almost like separate decisions by the franchise. It wasn't like, I don't think they went into it saying, we're going to sign Najee Harris, and we're also going to draft Omari and Hampton. I think Hampton sort of fell in their laps during the NFL draft, and they made the best possible decision. And
Starting point is 00:23:25 that's not really a good thing for Najee. I just think Hampton has everything to him where you're you're able to get potentially elite production and also be able to get your dynasty roster a lot younger. I think Hampton just the sky is the limit. He's an absolute workhorse. He's good enough as a receiver. And I think when you compare him to like a Jonathan Taylor, the offensive ecosystem around him is just going to be better. And you're able to kind of reset the clock. So I'm taking Hampton ahead of those guys. I'm also putting Trevion Henderson right up there where I'm taking Henderson sort of ahead of a number of guys in your in your tier two. Henderson just screams fantasy football friendly. It's teams trying to chase the Jameer Gibbs like outcome. And when it comes to Henderson, I think he'd catch a ton of passes.
Starting point is 00:24:17 He's also a home run hitter running back who gets to play next to one of the most mobile quarterbacks in football. So Henderson can give you huge big playability and weekly sustainable target volume, where I think like the upside outcomes for Trevion Henderson are that he, like a year from now, we're drafting him as a Top 5 running back in startups. I think that's the sort of ceiling he has. I also think that there's a, just because of the lack of offensive skill position talent in New England, I think Henderson's going to get a real opportunity in Year 1 to gain some significant dynasty values. So like, I had this discussion with some very smart people over at Fantasy Points. Ryan Heath, who's been on your show, Scott Barrett, when we were, we did a huge Dynasty rankings update for our overall rankings in single QB and in Superflex.
Starting point is 00:25:06 And I've been really pounding the table for Travion Henderson over Bucky Irving, and it's an uncomfortable one. And for my Dynasty rosters, I have a ton of exposure to Bucky Irving. So I really hope that the, the, the pollers are correct here, Heath. But at the end of the day, I'm taking the upside of Trevion Henderson. Just the sheer athleticism for him, the draft capital, I just think he's a better three-year bet than Bucky, despite Bucky being an awesome, awesome talent. And Bucky, again, for me, is still a top 10 running back in dynasty. So it's sort of splitting hairs. But I have those guys side by side in my dynasty ranking. So really, really enthusiastic about those guys. Judkins, for me, probably is, is behind Henderson and behind Hampton. I think Judkins is a really, really good talent. But we have huge quarterback issues in Cleveland this year. Last year, they were the most pass-happy team in the NFL,
Starting point is 00:26:01 which is sort of why they drafted Quintchon Judkins. I think they want to change their DNA. They've been sort of searching for this Nick Chubb-like replacement. But I don't necessarily like the fact that this is going to be a potentially slower start to his career than with the other 2 rookies. You also have, I really didn't like the Dylan Sampson draft pick. And I know a lot of people sort of laugh at that, but yeah, I know you liked him. I liked him. And Cleveland making that fourth round bet on Sampson sort of says to me that they look back at what they were good at historically over the last few years. That Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt season, it seems like they're sort of chasing that. And I think Sampson is going to be a little bit of a thorn in Quinch on Judkins side, where you have a young player who we believe in, like, Judkins checks off so many boxes. He's super athletic, as he proved at the Combine, unbelievably productive player in the SEC
Starting point is 00:26:54 and the Big Ten, playing big boy football every single Saturday. And he brought it. And he showed he could also thrive in a committee backfield next to a Trevion Henderson. So there's a lot of reasons for me to be wrong on this. I just think Sampson's gonna be a little more annoying. I think this could end up being a 65-35, 60-40 type annoying split, where Judkins, you don't get off to the fast start, and then you have to deal with him in a somewhat committee role with another young running back. So I just don't necessarily love that situation for him. But I think just based on the talent, the draft capital, you can put him up next to like the, the Bryce Halls, the Chase Browns in that sort of tier as
Starting point is 00:27:33 well. But push comes to shoves. Kushner-Judkins is behind Trevion Henderson for me and certainly, certainly behind Hampton. So we're going to move to wide receiver in just a second, but there's one more running back that I want to at least mention because I know a lot of people are RJ Harvey truthers and are disappointed not to see him in the top three tiers. Certainly disappointed to see
Starting point is 00:27:55 him behind Judkins for me. So do you think RJ Harvey should be in this tier also or my right to have him a tier lower? No, I think he should be right there. I think when you're talking about guys like Quinshawn Judkins, guys like Kenneth Walker, in my, in our, excuse me, in our overall rankings over at Fantasy Points, we've been sort of ahead of the curve on R.J. Harvey throughout the draft process. We thought he was going to be a second-round pick sort of from the
Starting point is 00:28:20 Senior Bowl on. We turned out to be correct on that. We didn't necessarily know he was going to land in the nuts landing spot. So he's an interesting prospect. He's 24 years old, which some people don't necessarily like. But again, we're making these 2-year bets, 3-year bets at the running back position. We have R.J. Harvey sort of back-to-back with Bruce Hall and Jonathan Taylor. So we have him very, very highly ranked. I personally would, would probably prefer, you know, him and Taylor. It's kind of splitting hairs for me, Heath, because again, Harvey is in a really good offense. I'm singing the praises of Bo Nix. So I do think you should have RJ Harvey at least in that third tier should not be completely left out of this conversation. Let's move on to the wide receiver position.
Starting point is 00:29:03 And my favorite thing is a one man tier. And for me right now, Jamar Chase is a one man tier at wide receiver one. Now I've talked about this a lot. We've gone back and forth in my dynasty rankings over the last three years between Chase and Jefferson as wide receiver one overall a year ago, Jefferson was my wide receiver one and the same tier with Chase. Do you agree with me that what we saw from Chase last year and the current situation of all these guys, Chase has kind of moved into a tier of his own at the wide receiver position?
Starting point is 00:29:37 I would say it's sort of yes and no, because Chase would be our big bet to be first of all, he's my one on one this year in redraft. So I have him ahead of everybody. We haven't seen a repeat wide receiver one overall in quite some time. Have to really go back to like the Antonio Brown days to kind of find that. But at the end of the day, Cooper Cup probably would have got there. I mean, but probably Justin Jefferson was nipping at his heels that year. But when it comes to Jamar Chase, I think he's just fantastic, and he's only 25 years old. And again, I'm waxing poetic about Joe Burrow and how he's going to pass for 50 touchdowns. A good portion of those are going to go chase. I still think you've got to push Justin Jefferson right next to him in that super, super, super elite
Starting point is 00:30:19 tier. Jefferson is the same age. Justin Jefferson is in a very good offensive ecosystem. And Jefferson also has a wide Receiver 1 overall to his name. So I would probably push him up. I think those two guys are sort of in their own little mini-tier. And I know like in, in Superflex startups, both of those guys are in consideration, like right after you have the, either, you know, really right before or right after you talk about those big three quarterbacks, depending on how you want to build your team, I think, like, the Chase and Jefferson, for me, are ahead, clearly, to, like, a CD Lamb, Malik Neighbors, the other wide receivers who I'm really, really, really high on. So I think Jefferson, just based on where I would select him in a super flex startup belongs up there with Jamar Chase in that truly elite here.
Starting point is 00:31:09 I like to reference recent DLF ADP because they do a good job of running that every month. And right now, this shows chase at the fourth pick in a super flex league. So right after that tier one of quarterbacks right before Hertz, Burrow or my homes, and then Jefferson just a couple picks later, you got Burrow and Hertz and then Jefferson at pick seven. Let's get to Jefferson and tier two at the wide receiver position. This is a little bit bigger tier.
Starting point is 00:31:34 Justin Jefferson, Malik neighbors, CD lamb, Pukka Nakua, Brian Thomas Jr., Amunrao St. Brown and Nico Collins round out tier two for me. And I'm going to, I normally, I just talk about, listen, this is the tier. Don't worry about the order, but I do have both neighbors and Thomas ahead of Amun Ra and Nico Collins. Is it too soon to do that after their rookie years? No, I don't think it's too soon.
Starting point is 00:32:00 I think that it's appropriate to do that. I'm on raw St. Brown. Last year we saw the targets go down by about 20 targets. He was really, really boosted by the fact that he had 12 touchdown catches. But the Ariards went down a lot of metrics there that were, went down a little bit for Amanrao St. Brown. He was back to back seasons of finishing as the wide receiver for overall in fantasy points per game at the wide receiver position, but wide receiver scoring was down.
Starting point is 00:32:27 So I'm on raw. We also find out that there was a little bit of knee cleanup. There was a procedure in the knee. And are we not supposed to care about that at all? Because I care about it. And at the end of the day, I really give a big shout out to the Detroit Lions beat reporters for letting us know about that
Starting point is 00:32:44 before there was maybe 10,000 best ball drafts. We find that out in June in the information age. So come on, guys, let's get with it. But I don't like that. I also don't like that Amon Ross St. Brown has a new offensive coordinator this year. Ben Johnson and Amon Ross St. Brown were just a perfect, perfect pairing. The way Ben Johnson utilized the slot receiver was truly elite. So for me, if I'm in a dynasty league, and you offer me Amman Ross St. Brown from Malik Neighbors, I'm turning that down all day long. So I think you're appropriate where you have them. Brian Thomas Jr. is the interesting one, because BTJ is unbelievable. And the two of us podcasted multiple times last season, sort of talking about just how highly we can push BTJ up. Right.
Starting point is 00:33:27 Now he's got Travis Hunter. And I know Travis Hunter has, like, and I think where you have BTJ is appropriate. This is a guy that is Josh Gordon-esque in the peak outcome on the field. And Brian Thomas Jr. is a guy who, if everything goes right, will be right in the mix for wide receiver one overall this year. But then you have the Travis Hunter situation where people say, you know, this is going to be BTJ as the Jamar Chase and Travis Hunter as the T Higgins. They're going to coexist,
Starting point is 00:33:56 but Travis Hunter takes a step back. Number two overall pick wide receivers don't usually take a step back. So I think that there is a non-zero chance that a year from now, Travis Hunter is able to flip the dynasty values with BTJ. And I know a lot of people say, Theo, that's stupid. But I think that that's a possibility, just because Travis Hunter, there's some unknown upside. A guy that had to attend both defensive and offensive meetings at Colorado had to play every single snap. And now has a situation where I realize today they at mini camp, they're having them doing a couple defensive drills.
Starting point is 00:34:33 But at rookie OTAs, they had them doing nothing but offense. If Travis Hunter plays 90% on offense, 10% on defense, Travis Hunter might be really, really good. Now, I'd still put that at like a 20% chance, 25% chance. BTJ is just truly elite, and it's gonna be hard for Hunter to overcome him. But when you look at everybody in Tier 1 and Tier 2, no one has as much of a threat to them as Travis Hunter is to Brian Thomas Jr.
Starting point is 00:35:02 That's my only trepidation with sort of a BTJ right now. And I hope I'm wrong about this because I have an absolute fortune investing in BTJ on my dynasty rosters. And I made a habit of trying to trade and buy high for him last year. So I have a serious investment, but Travis Hunter is also a guy
Starting point is 00:35:21 that we've pushed way, way up in our rankings at Fantasy Points. In our single QB rankings, I'm gonna pull this up so I don't say it incorrectly. In our single QB rankings, we have BTJ at 10 overall, right ahead of Amman Ra St. Brown and ahead of Nico Collins. But we have Travis Hunter at 17 overall, and he's going side by side with guys like Lad McConkey and Saquon Barkley. So we have both of those guys inside of our top 17 overall in our non-SuperFlex PPR ranking. So we're really high on Travis Hunter and his potential upside outcome. Some really smart people at Fantasy Points, Ryan Heath, Graham Barfield, like a couple of guys
Starting point is 00:36:03 really love Hunter hunters potential here You know, that's a great transition in a tier three because if they do flip-flop neither one of them is going to have to move Very much Travis hunter is in tier three for me with Jackson Smith and Jacob Marvin Harrison, Jr Ladd McConkey Drake London and the unicorn AJ Brown He's been a bit of a unicorn just in the way that he plays football as a wide receiver in the first place, but he's also the only wide receiver over 26 in my top 24 dynasty wide receivers. He'll be 28 at the start of the 2025 season. Does that make him, I know he's not as risky
Starting point is 00:36:40 as Travis Hunter because of the defensive concerns and the fact we've never seen him play, but does his age make him one of the riskier top 15 wide receivers? I think we're splitting hairs like 27 years old is not 30 years old. AJ Brown is unbelievable in terms of the efficiency and his usage is is off the charts. Target share, chair, air yard chair, first read rate. He's clearly Jalen Hurts' preferred option. He's a guy that scored a ton of touchdowns down the stretch, had a touchdown catch in the NFC Championship game, touchdown catch in the Super Bowl. A.J. Brown is a stud, but he is no threat to lead the league in targets. And if we're chasing, like, this is a tier where I want guys who could be the wide receiver one overall if you're taking a chance on a wide Receiver this early in your dynasty start up
Starting point is 00:37:29 You're not drafting this guy saying, you know, I want to get like that wide receiver 12 wide receiver 13 season And I'm gonna have a structural build. No, you're chasing an upside outcome And I think with AJ Brown there is a capped target ceiling just based on the way that Philadelphia plays offense. So for me, that pushes him behind guys like Drake London and guys like Lad McConkey. I'm extremely bullish on London this year. I think like people watching this trying to find ways to benefit from our tears here or specifically his tears in my comments. Like if you're looking for a tier down trade, tearing down from a tier two guy to Drake London plus
Starting point is 00:38:09 might end up being very profitable for you as a dynasty manager, because the sample size with Drake London and Michael Pennex Jr. is small, but it was unbelievable production. In the Michael Pennex Jr. starts, Drake London had a 39% target share and was scoring off the charts, put up some tremendous spike weeks. Pennex loves London. London's also in this Zach Robinson offense,
Starting point is 00:38:36 which really looks a lot like a Sean McVeigh offense. I was very hard on Zach Robinson at the beginning of last year, thought the guy could have been a fraud, completely ate my words. I think that this guy gets it. And the move to Pennix sort of has me enthusiastic for London potentially being the dark horse wide receiver one this season. So I'm really high on London. The one guy that's missing from your tiers,
Starting point is 00:38:59 I think should be Tett Macmillan. Because when we're talking about chasing a high end target earner, a top-10 draft capital wide receiver, Ted McMillan landed in the perfect situation for him to really, really thrive and eventually be, like a London, a guy who's getting 145 to 160 targets. Ted is joining a team that didn't have any receivers go over 650 receiving yards last year. I believe no wide receiver cracked 50 catches last year, Heath. And Adam Thielen, many games with Bryce Young was like hyper-targeted. Bryce Young had a tendency to hyper-target Adam Thielen. If Ted McMillan gets that sort of treatment, this could be the missing piece to
Starting point is 00:39:41 Carolina's offense. I also really believe in Dave Canales. I think he's super, super smart. The guy's the quarterback whisperer. The guy's the running back ADP whisperer. Did it back to back years with Rashad White and Chuba Hubbard. Sort of turned everything around for Bryce Young. I think Tet McMillan deserves to be in that,
Starting point is 00:39:59 one of those, those tiers, probably tier three here. Yeah, we did have one question from the chat that you just answered, who's a likely riser into the top 3 tiers? I think that's Theo's answer there. If I look at Tier 4, and Ted's certainly in that tier, I would say the other 2 guys that I could reasonably see making a rise into Tier 3, as early as like, I mean, for most of them it's Week week four for Rushy Rice, it might be August, but Rushy Rice, if he comes back and is healthy day one at training camp, and we've heard nothing
Starting point is 00:40:31 more about the legal case, then I think he's going to take an immediate boost then. And then if he plays the first month of the season, like he did his last eight or nine games healthy with the chiefs, we're going to view Rushy Rice as one of those top three wide receivers. The other guy is Garrett Wilson. Garrett Wilson's been in tier three for a good part of his career. Now he's teamed up with Justin Fields. That's either a terrible thing because Justin Fields runs too much and doesn't throw well enough, or it's a fantastic thing because they played together in college and did you see what Justin Fields did for DJ Moore? We're going to find that out early in the 2025 season and Wilson could definitely be a guy who rises. I'll also say though I think about both Wilson and Rice and Tet. Those
Starting point is 00:41:16 are guys that could be fallers in the 2025 season just because if Rice is not healthy or it's suspended. If Wilson continues to produce like a low end number three wide receiver, at some point people are going to accept that he's just a number three wide receiver. And Tets a rookie with Bryce Young as his quarterback. Who knows for sure what what what the first year holds. So potential risers also generally potential fallers. Yeah, Garrett Wilson's like top five all time in terms of targets over your first 3 years in the NFL, so he's an elite target earner. And he's just, I didn't even notice him not being in the first 3 tiers. But I agree, he should probably be there,
Starting point is 00:41:53 offensive Rookie of the Year, had 100 catches last year, took a big step forward, and he's like the only show in town. Wilson sort of is that Tier 3, though. It's sort of a, we don't necessarily think he could reach wide receiver 1 overall potential this year in that offense. I think it's going to be very run-heavy. A lot of RPOs, but he will be hyper- targeted. Sort of will be a, almost the, the A.J. Brown level player where they're going to be run-heavy, but he's going to get the, the overwhelming majority of the targets. I love your Rashi Rice call. I just had Ben Gretzsch on Dynasty Life. And we talked about underrated Dynasty assets. Like Rashi Rice, when we're talking about Rashi Rice, you're talking about a guy who, if he stayed healthy last year, Heath, he'd probably be in these tiers, had unbelievable usage, had like peak Aman-Rasen Brown type usage through the first three weeks of the year before getting injured in game four.
Starting point is 00:42:47 So I'll throw him in there. And then the other guy that I'll throw in there just because he was so, so, so good last year and he's still relatively young is T Higgins. T Higgins last year was fantastic. 18.6 points per game. Uh, and this is a guy who only played 12 games, but still was just an absolute monster in terms of everything he did on a point per game basis, yards per game, receptions per game,
Starting point is 00:43:16 targets per route run, was a 23% target share guy, even playing alongside Jamar Chase. And the attention the defenses are gonna pay to Jamar Chase this year the attention the defenses are gonna pay to Jamar Chase this year, T. Higgins is gonna have a chance to give you a lot of those huge spike weeks, sort of like he did last year
Starting point is 00:43:32 in the fantasy playoffs against Denver, where he got a lot of fantasy managers to their championship game with that particular game. And what's interesting with T. Higgins, last year he took a huge step forward in terms of just the targets, where a lot of seasons in his career was a guy who was, we were like really hoping for more in the Target volume. And this is a guy that Joe Burrow absolutely
Starting point is 00:43:52 loves. 10 touchdown catches last year and only 12 games played. So have to mention T. Higgins. But yeah, I love the Rashi Rice call. And what's crazy is the Kansas City Chiefs have had either Tyree kill or Travis Kelsey leading them in targets every single season. Since like 2015, Rashi Rice is going to be like a pioneer breaking through this year, finally ending the streak there. Let's take our second break and then we will get to the tight ends. One more wide receiver comment from the chat says Rome could be a sleeper for rise might be the best wide receiver on the roster.
Starting point is 00:44:26 If he gets the ARSB role, you could say that about any of the top three bears wide receivers, although it seems like the vibes are a little bit better for Burden and Odunze than they are for DJ Moore right now, but I do, I 100% agree. Like Burden or Odunze either one could make in a huge leap in spring training or in training camp and definitely early in the season. Yeah, I mean, it's interesting because whoever gets the slot role in the
Starting point is 00:44:53 Ben Johnson offense is going to be the one that I think you want in dynasty. The problem with Roma Dunes is Luther Burden. They selected him inside the top 40. Burden was just a huge slot dominator at Missouri. But I do think Adunze is interesting because if we had this conversation six weeks ago,
Starting point is 00:45:12 we talk about fading Adunze, fading Adunze, the market might've overmoved here and overcorrected for the proper term. They overcorrected. You're seeing Adunze as wide receiver 41 on underdog. Before the NFL draft, he was like wide receiver 23. So you could say the market was too enthusiastic about him a couple months ago and now might be way too bearish on him. Adunze, Burden, I want access, and Colston Loveland, I want access to this Chicago Bears offense on my Dynasty rosters, but I think that you want to spread it out and not
Starting point is 00:45:46 be too condensed with one single player. Yeah, that at the tight end position, I'm going to admit that there's just not enough players for me in the top three tiers, but it's also kind of how I view this position in dynasty at this time at Brock Bowers is my tier one, Trey McBride is my tier two, Sam Laporta and Colston Loveland is my tier three. When I say that, it's not that I don't think anybody else compares, except in terms of value, I'm not accepting Trey McBride and a late second for Brock Bowers. So to me, that says in terms of value, they're at a different place. I'm not accepting anybody in tier three and a late second for Trey McBride.
Starting point is 00:46:28 So for me that says that there's a clear distinction here and I want to start with Bowers. And we'll definitely get to the question of who has he left out of his top two, top three tiers. But I want to start with Bowers because he's a 22 year old who just had 110 catches, 112 catches in an 1100 yard season. I've heard some people worry about the Raiders with, with Chip Kelly going too run heavy this year and all that huge passing volume is not going to be there. I think sometimes what people miss is that the, when he was in Philadelphia, the Eagles ran the most plays in the NFL,
Starting point is 00:47:06 the three years that Chip Kelly was running the offensive. I think the split between runs and passes certainly is going to shift from last year. I also think there's probably going to be more plays. And so I don't know if I see a big drop off coming in terms of the, especially the target numbers for Bowers, but how early would you say is it too early in a super flex tight end premium draft to take a 22 year old tight end who just had caught 112 passes as a rookie? I think he's right up there with the Jamar chase and Justin
Starting point is 00:47:36 Jefferson tier and right up there with the Q the tier two QBs in tight end premium Brock Bowers is just the most set-it-and-forget-it player ever imagined. It's almost like he's created in a lab. You're basically getting puka-nakua, but playing the tight end position. And Bowers also was able to do that last year on a bottom-eight scoring offense with really low-level QB play. This year, Geno Smith, like Geno's by far the best quarterback that Brock Bowers has ever played with, and the offensive ecosystem with Chip Kelly and Pete Carroll. This is a team that could be really, really fun. And I love that you brought up the tempo. There's gonna be more opportunities for Vegas just to run more plays this year. Ash and Gentie is going to make them so efficient. And Brock Bowers is just such a safe bet to lead his team in targets at the tight end position. And the Trey McBride, Brock Bowers discussion in redraft, I think, is an interesting one, because in like FFPC drafts, I have to take Brock Bowers in like the first six picks. Trey McBride I can take towards the 1-2 turn. Is that a better value to me? Maybe. And certainly opportunity cost of early second round Trey McBride I can take towards the one two turn. Is that a better value to me? Maybe. And certainly opportunity cost of early second round Trey McBride
Starting point is 00:48:50 versus early first round Brock Bowers. I get it. But from a dynasty lens, Brock Bowers is three years younger than Trey McBride. Trey McBride is unbelievable, but you have to let age be the driver here in this decision. Bowers had one of the best rookie seasons all time for fantasy football. It took Trey McBride over a season to sort of get going. And to his credit, he's really getting going now. But Brock Bauer is clearly the tight end one overall. Get as much Bauer as you can in dynasty.
Starting point is 00:49:21 And he's the kind of guy that overpaying for in dynasty trades like go ahead and break the calculator pay 30% over ask if you have a manager that's willing to move about hours go ahead and entertain his offers 100% agree I'm just thought up this question so somebody offers you a 27 first and Trey McBride for Bowers are you saying yes yes? I probably, like, I know 2027 is the, is like the unbelievable class we're all really waiting on, but I like the flexibility of having next year's first a little more than the waiting two years and sort of extending my build. If it was Trey McBride and a 2026 first, and maybe a little something else, I'm thinking about it, because I do think Trey McBride is exceptionally good, and his profile does have a
Starting point is 00:50:06 lot of room to run. Last year, he set the record for the most catches in NFL history without a touchdown catch. End of the season with only two touchdown grabs. And what's interesting is his entire career, he has seven total touchdowns. This profile supports a guy who could have a major breakthrough in terms of touchdown grabs this year, which would be sort of the outsized outcome, was like 15 and a half points per game last year. You could easily see him take that up to 17, 18 points per game this year, just with a little bit more touchdown luck. In terms of receptions, he had 111, Bauer's had 112. Those are both top four all-time reception totals. And target share wise, these guys are alphas. Trey McBride, 26.5% target share. And Kyler Murray loves Trey McBride. I get the mark.
Starting point is 00:50:56 I wish he loved him enough to throw it on target in the end zone. This is true. But we'll take the overwhelming targets and then like a little bit of variance for the touchdown. So could we see Trey McBride have like an eight touchdown catch season and be like a league winner? Absolutely. Trey McBride is awesome. He is awesome. I love Trey McBride. I was heavy on him all last year. I'll be having on this year,
Starting point is 00:51:16 but I have a question for you and it's maybe more of a projections question, but it's also a dynasty question because I preach a lot on our podcast and anyway, I'm going to talk about fantasy football. Touchdowns are the least predictive thing. It's also the most important thing a lot of times, but it's the least predictive thing about scoring fantasy points. One bad touchdown year, I will just throw out and not care at all. Two bad touchdown years, I'm nervous, but okay. Well, Trey McBride's been in the NFL for three years and he has a 2.1% receiving touchdown rate.
Starting point is 00:51:49 Just to put that in context, for those of you who don't do projections, a standard tight end rates probably five. A great tight end might have a rate, like George Kittle might have a rate as high as, or six or 7% that's relatively sustainable. I wouldn't ever project any non-running back for a 2% touchdown rate in a given season.
Starting point is 00:52:09 But if this happens another year, or has it even happened enough to where you just kind of view Trey McBride as a lower touchdown guy? Yeah, I mean, you could make a case if it happens again and he's sub five touchdown catches this year, then he's a little bit of a PPR compiler, which at the tight end position is not like the worst thing.
Starting point is 00:52:30 But again, you want to see guys who can give you those massive, massive spike weeks. And without touchdowns, then you're asking a team to commit double digit targets to him every single week, which is sort of a tough bet to make. So I see what you're saying. I would tend to think that Arizona doesn't view him as some sort of limited player there. And that was sort of unlucky in terms of his touchdown scoring based on the
Starting point is 00:52:53 amount of money they gave him. I think I'm there. And also Heath, like these sort of like dink and dunk type PPR guys, the compilers, he had over 1,100 receiving yards last year, Trey McBride did. So he's been a guy that's had a number of high yardage total games as well. So he's seen spike weeks in terms of receiving yards. Usually that correlates to a guy who can get out in the open field and boogie and find the end zone a few times. So I will tend to say he is not a compiler. He is a very talented player who's had unlucky touchdown success. I, that would be the answer I would like to hear. And most of my dynasty teams would like to hear.
Starting point is 00:53:30 So my tier three was just Sam Laporta and Colston Loveland. I think the first thing I want to ask you, I want to talk about Laporta and the Lions. You hit on a little bit earlier in the show, but first, who am I leaving out from this, this, whether you put McBride and Bowers in the show, but first, who am I leaving out from this, whether you put McBride and Bowers in the same tier or separate them by one tier, who's in the group behind them?
Starting point is 00:53:53 Is there anybody besides LaForta and Loveland? I think that you have to consider Tyler Warren because I like Loveland more than Warren. I have more Loveland than Warren on my dynasty rosters. But I think in terms of startup value, in terms of trade equity, and in terms of where guys are going in rookie drafts, you're seeing just as many Tyler Warren ahead of Loveland's as you are Loveland's ahead of Tyler Warren's. And that's despite Loveland being drafted ahead of him in the NFL draft and being younger, Warren lands on a team where we have some question marks about the quarterback situation now, but that's not a stagnant thing.
Starting point is 00:54:31 But when it comes to tight ends, one of the easiest drivers for fantasy football success is, will this player be a top-two target in their offense? You can go down the line, Heath, and really, this is, this is the case for wide receivers as well. You can go down the line, Heath. And really, this is the case for wide receivers as well. Wide receivers who are the number three target earner on their team do not drive the needle for us in fantasy football. The highest scoring wide receiver
Starting point is 00:54:54 who was the number three target last year was Rashad Bateman. He was like wide receiver 40, wide receiver 41, depending on your scoring. The highest scoring tight end that was the number three target was Sam Laporta. And anybody who drafted him last year, you weren't necessarily happy about the returns
Starting point is 00:55:10 they had to pay in ADP. Laporta is fantastic talent, but he was 10 and a half points per game in PPR. So when it comes to Warren heading into 2026, I would be surprised if he's not viewed as a top two target earner in Indianapolis, whereas Loveland has a ton of target competition. So I think Loveland's going to put up Spike Weeks. He's also attached to an offensive coordinator in Ben Johnson, who got a
Starting point is 00:55:34 tight end 1 overall season out of Sam Laporta. So we have a sample size there. But again, it's Luther Burden, Roma Dunze, DJ Moore, and all 3 of those guys could both be around him in 2026. So Loveland is a bet on talent and betting on him overcoming like an ambiguous who's the alpha offense, whereas Warren, it's a really simple bet, and he's a top 15 draft pick on a team that the quarterback play has to improve from a passing angle. And then I'll throw in this name. I'll throw in George Kittle, who's really, really old. He's old enough to, I mean, I'm way older than George Kittle. But in football terms, George Kittle is really, really old. But based on the contract that San Francisco gave him last year, this is a player that we can expect to have another 2 years of immense tight end success. And that, that matters because in the tight end position, when we talk about a guy who can average 15 points or more, uh, then that's a huge driver of
Starting point is 00:56:33 success for our fantasy teams. And last year it was George Kittle, not Brock Bowers and not Trey McBride that led tight ends in PPR points per game, averaged 15.8 points per game. And I would argue that this is the most unsettled we've seen a wide receiver room in San Francisco heading into a season. So there's a chance that Kittle, who's a perpetual 90, 95 targets, super efficient player, there was a range of outcome where he gets 120 targets this year. And if that happens, Kittle could be the guy
Starting point is 00:57:05 that you need to win in fantasy. So, Kittle, despite his age, he's the type of bet you want to make for your Dynasty rosters. And you've also seen a number of these truly elite guys age very gracefully. Travis Kelce aged very gracefully, was playing at a super high level at age 34. Even last year at 35 was good enough to get you by. Tony Gonzalez, certainly. There's been a number of guys at the tight end position who have done this, and Kittle is just such a great player. So I would say Tyler Warren and George Kittle there. And then the other guy who the two of us
Starting point is 00:57:39 have been fans of over the years, Heath, TJ Hawkinson is now healthy. He's fully healthy, and last year we saw him play banged up. So Hawkinson again, it's another player who's having to fight multiple guys for targets, but the talent is there and the contract insulation. So Hawkinson's a little bit, his dynasty price tag is a little bit depressed based on where it was the last few years. I, and I think Hawkinson, I wrote about this earlier this month, but just remember that the week before he tore his ACL,
Starting point is 00:58:08 he was tied with Travis Kelsey for tight end one that year playing in this offense, average 8.6 targets per game since he got there. And there's been a little buzz out of Minnesota that one of the things they want to change in this offense is just give JJ McCarthy a few more layups. TJ Hawkinson like Trey McBride provides those layups five yards downfield. So we may see a spike in his reception volume. It may be a bad thing for Jordan Addison. We'll find out.
Starting point is 00:58:35 I want to finish up. There's a little bit of a debate in the chat between whether or not Sam Laporta is overrated. And I had a question. You kind of touched on this during your Amun Ra St. Brown discussion, but I'm just a little bit lower than consensus on pretty much all of the Lions right now. I'm concerned about the Ben Johnson situation. I'm concerned about losing your starting center at 29 years old, who was an absolute stud.
Starting point is 00:59:02 And I think for Laporta specifically, can Dan Campbell do a press conference without talking about how much better Jameson Williams is going to be? Like if Williams' role grows, that's a bad thing for Laporta as well. Do you have any concern about the Lions in 2025 or Laporta specifically?
Starting point is 00:59:21 I think that the Lions somewhat regressing is something that probably happens because they ran so pure with Ben Johnson and also the defense took such a step back when Aiden Hutchinson got hurt that this is a defense that we know will be playing at a higher level this year. They still are a super, super talented team.
Starting point is 00:59:42 One of the most talented teams in football on the offensive side of the ball. And I'll push back a little bit on the, I saw somebody in the comments saying, you know, Laporta is so overrated. Laporta is not a theoretical dynasty asset. He's a guy that gave us a tight end 1 overall finish in his first year. That's only two seasons ago. And it's a tight end that's, that was targeted 120 times. So tight ends being able to reach 120 targets, that's not something you just luck into. And they're like, you know what, we're just going to target this guy a bunch of times. Tight ends who can be fantasy viable with 90 or more targets. So Laporta getting that sort of target volume as a rookie means he's very good. He was also a second round draft pick. He's a top level athlete. and he's a player that we all view as a very talented player. I agree
Starting point is 01:00:27 with you. The Jameson Williams stuff is absolutely scary. And this year, the bet in redraft and best ball is probably taking Jameson Williams around wide receiver 25 land than having to take Sam Laporta at tight end 4. Laporta, though, you're getting at a decent discount in best ball and redraft, especially based on where you had to take him last year. So I can see both sides there. With Laporte, it's a bet on talent situation, especially in dynasty, where you're going to get a tight end who has draft capital, he has fantasy success, and he's in a situation where he's just a long-term asset for you.
Starting point is 01:01:03 Will we see a return to tight end one overall season? Probably not. And there's a lot of pressure with Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren right behind him there, where if those guys have similar scoring numbers and they're younger, they will leapfrog him in the dynasty rankings. I just with Laporta have found the marketplace,
Starting point is 01:01:21 there's a lot of people like your commenters who are very smart fantasy people, and they're making smart comments. But I think that that's, like we talked about with Adunze, Laporta, the marketplace for him has just become easier to acquire assets. And it's a player who a year ago, he, no one wanted to trade Usam Laporta. He was neck and neck with Bauer. So I think Laporta is a range of outcomes guy and I hate taking like a both sides of the fence stance. But yeah, a lot of it's tied. The short term success is tied to does Jameson Williams go from like a 90 target guy to 115 target guy. If he does that, that doesn't bode well for Laporta. The one contingent upside outcome though is there. You have Almanra St. Brown who had a knee cleanup.
Starting point is 01:02:06 We've never had to deal with any sort of injury stuff with Almanra St. Brown. If St. Brown were to miss a portion of the season with some sort of a recurrence, and we don't have any reason to believe that that's gonna happen, we just hate hearing about knee cleanup surgeries, then you'd have Laporta and Jamison Williams
Starting point is 01:02:21 supporting a passing game, then you'd have a potential where Leporta would see his target share go way, way up. So both short term and long term, there's potential outcomes for Leporta where he's going to really, really maintain this elevated dynasty price tag. So I think he's a fine player for you to roster. I took him in a dynasty startup draft this week, actually, in FFPC, and I took McBride super early and Laporta just kept falling and falling and falling. And it got to a point where it was like fifth round and I took Sam Laporta, which I thought was a really good value.
Starting point is 01:02:52 A year ago in this sort of format, he's going at like the early second, one, two turn type guy. So Laporta is not untalented. He's not unathletic. There's a lot to like. And last year was a little bit banged up to start the season. Awesome, awesome stuff, They always appreciate you coming on the show. Tell everybody one more time where they can find you and what you've got coming up.
Starting point is 01:03:11 Yeah, you can find everything for me over at Fantasy Points Fantasy Points YouTube for a lot of my videos and Fantasy Points podcast. We're all separate feeds for Fantasy Points. So Fantasy Football Daily, we're dropping multiple shows a week. School of Scott with Scott Barrett. And then Dynasty Life, a lot of you are already listening to. He's been on that. Heath, you might be the Mount Rushmore of guests at this point. You've been on so many times, but he's been on multiple times. I'm sure we'll have him on again this offseason. Dynasty Life for Pure Dynasty Talk. and then all of my written content is over at Fantasy Points, and then I have a weekly article during the season over on The Athletic. Thank you, Theo. Thank you, Harry, making everything work in those beautiful graphics. Thank you to everybody who was active in the chat. We will talk to you on Friday with a 1QB mock draft.

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