Fantasy Football Today - Dynasty WR Rankings: Heath vs. Consensus! (04/19 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: April 19, 2022

Enter our NFL Draft contest: https://forms.gle/wZRYEHAD9XuJexxH8 Heath shares some of the biggest differences in his dynasty rankings compared to the industry consensus dynasty rankings. We start with Robert Woods and Allen Robinson as Heath is lower on those two players and basically any WR that age who doesn't have league-winning potential ... News and notes (11:30) on Kyler Murray, the Chiefs offense, the Panthers quarterback situation and more. Then we're back to the dynasty WR rankings as Heath tells you why he's lower on Tyreek Hill (20:55) and higher on Marquise Brown (27:05) than the consensus rankings ... Is Diontae Johnson too inefficient (32:45)? Is Keenan Allen showing signs of decline (42:00)? Which young WRs does Heath have ranked ahead of Allen? ... Your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. Tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. We're looking at dynasty rankings. Heath versus consensus. Heath gets to argue with the rest of the industry, basically. That'll be fun. Wide receivers and tight ends. Heath is lower on Deontay Johnson, higher on Juju Smith-Schuster.

Who do you think he likes better? Dave, who do you think he likes better, Deontay Johnson or Juju Smith-Schuster. Who do you think he likes better? Dave, who do you think he likes better? Deontay Johnson or Juju Smith-Schuster in his dynasty rankings? I think, well, goodness, if you're asking me that question, that probably means he's got Juju ranked higher than Deontay Johnson. I don't know if I'd see it the same way. I bet they're pretty close. I would say he's got wrong, but he does not.

I was about to say, he's probably got Deontay like one spot ahead of Juju. Two spots, Dave. Two spots. Also... We'll start the show for Dave. I know. It's not the first time this has happened to me.

All right. So we're going to ask Keith some more of his discrepancies basically with the rest of the industry. We're going to tell you about how to join the podcast league. Our NFL draft contest

is starting up again. We have a cool Google Doc basically for you to fill out. That's going to make this a lot easier, but you can join our podcast league. If you can guess the top 10 picks in order, it doesn't have to be the team. And I will tell you, we'll tell you more about that in just a moment. And your email is fantasy football at cbsi.com. Please send those in fantasy football at cbsi.com. Heath, when fantasy football at cbsi.com heath when you look at your dynasty rankings at wide receiver and tight end what's one of the biggest outliers that you want to highlight here yeah it's not one of the names i sent you to prep for the show so uh i saw you said what is your biggest outlier so i thought that will definitely i look mostly at top 20 top

30 guys so i looked a little bit deeper just to say, who's the biggest name who is a discrepancy? And he is a happy birthday. He just turned 30 years old nine days ago. Don't have it yet. Dave, we're guessing. You don't have it yet? He changed teams this offseason. Devontae Adams?

No. He's 29. What position? Did you say the position? He's a wide receiver. Changed teams. That's what I was assuming was receiver. Changed teams and he's 30.

Keep going? I feel like I'm playing Weddle. Oh, I think... He's never scored more than six touchdowns in a season strager got it he's robert woods it is robert woods yeah good job he is number 45 in the consensus dynasty rankings and number 63 in mine and share something like the guy who replaced him alan robinson is probably the second biggest discrepancy. I think he's 36 in the consensus and 48 in mine. I have a real hard time ranking guys who are at that age where the long-term future is uncertain, but also they don't project very well for this year.

Because if you are not a league winner this year and you have no guarantee of a future after this year then what it could your dynasty value be why can't alan robinson be revived into a league winner by the way it's been a long time since we've been able to call heath and ages that was kind of a fantasy baseball thing but i'm glad to have it back glad to have it back i think as a rule like traditionally it doesn't seem to be the case right now, but in the past I have not devalued players for age quite as much as some do. And I think I still don't with like Derrick Henry or Devante Adams. I have them I don't see a path to them being a league winner. Robinson could have just had a down year last year and that he has the ability to bounce back to be a top 20 wide receiver again. Woods could too. But the history that I can recall, and I haven't run a study on this, but I think we'll agree with this

statement. Wide receivers who at age 28, 29, 30 have down years like this. They bounce back. A.J. Green bounced back last year, but not to what he had been in his prime. No, I don't even know if we could say he was a reliable starter for many points of last year. Maybe early on last year, he was okay. But I remember in the second half of last year. Maybe early on last year he was okay, but I remember in the second half of the year he was just an absolute grenade going off in people's lineups, and it was terrible. I do think there is some upside for Allen Robinson to be somewhere between 20th and 30th among wide receivers.

So I'm not ready to tank him like you have in Dynasty. He stands out as one of those receivers that you should be able to get for a pretty cheap price if you're trying to win now in dynasty and to be fair if you look at him on a per game basis he was top 100 in ppr not non-ppr but he was 90th in full ppr so oh yeah got that not bad on a per game arguments yeah well what a stat to help sell people on Alan Robinson. And he wasn't even the answer. The answer was Robert Woods.

Right, I know. Because we all agree on Robert Woods, 30-year-old receiver coming off an ACL, going to a run-first team that would prefer to run the ball 50% of the time that already has a number one receiver. Yeah. Well, we can talk about them, or we can talk about aiden hutchinson or you're the rest of the top 10 in the nfl draft who will be number one

schrager come on uh come on over here and tell us how to get into the fantasy football today podcast listeners league yeah this might be the most difficult year we've ever done this i have no idea who's going in the top 10 usually we do it in the facebook group but we'll have a google doc google form adam will throw it in the podcast description if you're watching on youtube it'll be in the chat it'll be in the description predict the top 10 and whoever's closest to the most accurate usually it's seven sometimes eight players correct gets a spot in the podcast league right and so here's the thing you have to spell their name right. Right?

Because if you don't, then, because Stragger's going to sort by correct answers. If you spell their name wrong, that's a wrong answer. Spell their name right. It's just

which 10 players are going in that order. It has to be the order. So, if you think Hutchinson's going one, put him one.

If you think Malik Willis is going six, put him six, whatever it is. He's not going six. But, no, six, yeah, he could go six. Not going five or seven.

But, anyway, the order has to be right. The team doesn't matter. So, one through ten, the order that you think the players will be drafted and spell their names correctly. Get that last name right. Yeah. And I think we really need to revisit the he's not going five or seven. Well, he's not going to the giants.

Why not? Right. What if the giants trade out? They've got a new GM now. Why would he not like, why not? Why would he not draft a quarterback in round one? Yeah.

The giant, because he can do, he can get a comparable quarterback in round two or three. I don't think there is a comparable quarterback to Willis, like if he wants that kind of guy. I'm not hurting smoke around the Giants, but there's nothing. Amongst teams who might be considering a quarterback

in the first round, if some are, I don't know why the Giants wouldn't be. Well, they should have last year, and they didn't. I don't think that they are. I have not read one single thing about them looking at quarterbacking. Isn't that exactly what they should be doing if they want to? No, I don't think so, because I don't think that anyone thinks that the quarterbacks are the fifth or seventh best players in the drafts.

And I think that when you're a bad team, you shouldn't reach for a quarterback. You should just take the best players and get your quarterback next year. Tell that to the Panthers. Yeah, well, they are openly desperate at quarterback. Yeah. You know, the Giants have said the opposite, basically. Giants have the 36th pick in the draft.

I would not be surprised if a quarterback goes then to the Giants. Five or seven would surprise me. Okay, so that's our NFL Draft Contest. Check the episode description in the podcast feed, and Ben told you the other ways you can find it. Now, also, merchandising, merchandising. We've got great merchandise for you.

Fantasy Football Today helps you dominate your league all season long. Now you can represent your favorite podcast with official FFT gear only found on the CBS Sports Store. Discover T-shirts, mugs, sweatpants, laser-engraved pint glasses, hats, water bottles, and more to remind your buddies how you got the inside scoop to crush the competition. Right now, FFT listeners will get 20% off their order when they use this podcast exclusive code. Here's the code. FantasyFootball20 during checkout.

So FantasyFootball20 is the code. Get 20% off. It's only for our listeners. And we've got a link. Let's see. Store.CBSSports.com. We'll start and then, you know, slash collection slash fantasy dash football dash today.

But don't worry. There's an easier way. Again, the episode description. What is this? I think I've got something here. Oh, Ben took it from me. I had this thing sitting on my shelf that people can, if they take a picture of it with their phone, it will take them right there. QR code?

Oh, yeah. Ben sent me that to put on the shelf whenever you were doing the read. So we don't know what a QR code is called. We're calling our swag merchandise. We think the Giants are going to take a first-round quarterback. No, we don't think that. I'm sure there's going to be a line, you know, a digital line in the metasphere for merchandise at this point.

Well, anyway, go to the store. Alley store. Hold on, wait. Do we have to spell the coupon code right? It could not land that joke, and it just went off the rails. Fantasy Football 20 has to be spelled right as well, otherwise you don't get the discount.

Fantasy Football 20 is the discount. No unplanned jokes in the middle of reads. We've learned this. If anything... Jokes have to be planned if they go in the middle of reads. If anything doesn't go right on the show, Dave, we'll call it out on the show and he's been doing that when it comes to

for 12 years well it's supposed to not sponsors aren't supposed to be included in that usually i shut my trap when it comes to reeds like he said couldn't resist this time but seriously thanks for buying our mug okay you could maybe get dave's mug on your mug that would be fun let's do some news and notes. What could I do? If you buy merchandise, I will mail you an authentic piece of paper signed by me, Jamie, and Heath for free. I will mail it for free to the address of your choice. I just used the QR code and I'm now there in the store. Dave, I'm also...

What's that website link again? I'm also disappointed that you didn't get the merchandising, merchandising, merchandising. I got it. I got it. That's a nice tote bag. That also didn't land. We have tote bags? Yeah.

Okay. No crap. So let's talk about news and notes here. Here's your tote bag. I have the joggers and wear them regularly. How are they comfortable? Extremely soft. Jimmy Garoppolo and Kyler Murray

Maybe this stuff isn't so bad. will not attend their team's off-season workouts, according to Ian Rappaport. Garoppolo's got the shoulder injury. He's still rehabbing. Kyler Murray, not an injury-related situation. And also, A.J. Green said he needs to communicate better with Kyler Murray, that they basically need to be more on the same page.

So just a Kyler Murray question here. How much does the off-field stuff factor into your ranking and your analysis of Kyler Murray right now, and where do you have him? I moved him down because it does factor in. I don't like that he's going to be all sour puss over the year and that he's starting this little fight with, uh, with the team over a contract already.

Uh, I'm seventh nervous about, I'm also nervous about how he plays after he gets hurt. It's been two years in a row now where we've seen his average dip because he takes on an injury and, and, and I also am a little bit worried about that receiving core. Okay.

What they have is old except for Rondell Moore. Yeah. He was at six for me. He was the kind of final stop that I had before Deshaun Watson, even though I have Watson projected higher over 17 games. I don't think I can get to the point to where I think that there is a bigger risk currently for Kyler than Deshaun Watson. Now, that might

change by August, but for now, I'm going to leave Kyler ahead of Watson. So you've got Kyler at six. That means there's one player that I've got ahead of Kyler that you have behind. Russell Wilson. Oh, Russell Wilson. Okay. See, I am banking on

more past attempts for russ in denver than he ever had in seattle i am too um i just don't take him over kyler i don't man i really don't know how to compare the two receiving course denver's in arizona's no dk and lockett to judy and sutton well it's not just. DK and Lockett to Judy and Sutton. Well, it's not just Judy and Sutton. You're also getting Patrick and Okwu Agnum. Okay. I'm not giving Okwu Agnum any credit over Gerald Everett or Will Disley or anybody else. Okay. That's fine.

What about Javante? You're not going to give him credit either? He's fine. He's fine. KJ Hamler? Where's KJ Hamler in the Dynasty rankings? 112th. Really, Dave?

I would rather spell out the URL than talk about the 112th ranked. I just totally made that number up. I have no idea. Do we have FFT golf balls? Oh, that'd be fun. That would be incredible. I'm assuming we don't.

No, we don't have that. But we've got joggers. I would never buy those because, well, I don't golf. But if I did, I would lose them. Hamler is 78 at wide receiver. So he's pretty close to right behind Paris Campbell, right ahead of Denzel Mims. You should call him the Great Hambino. Remember the Great Hambino?

From the Sandlot? No. So Carolina offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo said that Sam Darnold is the starting quarterback, and then he said that was something that he should not have said. Oh, man. We'll check in on that in a week. This is the guy in charge of Christian McCaffrey

and DJ Moore. What a year we're about to have in Carolina. Some tight end news. The Bears signed James O'Shaughnessy, and Kevin O'Connell, Minnesota's head coach, said that Irv Smith is on schedule as he recovers from meniscus surgery. Cole Komet or Irv Smith? Komet. Irv. What about you, Schragerrager cole commit and dynasty i'm sorry commit and dynasty i still think erv has it okay erv it is what are the odds that erv

finishes second on the vikings and targets not so so bad would depend on feeling it i mean, if Justin Jefferson gets Cooper Cupp's target share, then I'm not sure the second's going to be all that great. He's not going to get that. All the more reason to go after Comet. I mean, why he's not going to? Because he's not as good as Cooper Cupp? No, because Cooper Cupp's not going to get Cooper Cupp's target share. What was his target share?

30? Yeah, 31, 32, something like that. That's tough, too. All All and then the percentage sign. Maybe he will. Andy Reid said the Chiefs offense won't be significantly different without Tyreek Hill. No.

The question I have is, is it going to be the Chiefs offense of 2021 or the three years before that? Are they going to be able to get their downfield passing game going again? It's obviously going to be a lot tougher without Tyreek Hill. Are they going to be more of a ball out of the hand quickly, shorter pass, more PPR friendly, but less explosive offense? Teams seem to really learn how to limit

the chiefs for a while for almost half the season and it seemed like the chiefs kind of figured it out down the stretch but yeah yeah they were exceptional against that uh too high safety look in the last four or five games and so if teams do that to start the year, I don't think they'll do it for very long. One, they're banking on that. I think their, their offense as it's designed now is to continue running receivers on deep routes.

That's what Hardman's for. And I think that's what Valdez Scantling can do. And they're hoping that they can win more often and have more explosive plays underneath. That's what Juju's there for. So I think there's room for them to be certainly a productive offense and a top-five type of offense, just in a different type of way. But they're still going to have that deep element to their game,

which makes, in my mind, it makes McCole Hardman and Valdez Scanling draftable, but as bench receivers, not as guys who might be the next Tyreek Hill. And who of those two would you prefer? I have Hardman ahead of MVS because Hardman's been there longer. Yeah, and Hardman will probably get 15 rush attempts or something.

I'm going to go off subject one more time. Good. Dave, did you see the end of the Celtics-Nets game on Sunday? Yes, I did. Heath is a big Celtics fan, which is weird because he has no ties to the Celtics. He's probably just a bandwagon fan. As is my son, who also has no ties to the Celtics. Oh, okay.

Wow, that was such a great game. It was an awesome game. What team should I have chosen in the 80s? The Bulls. Who is geographically the closest? That's the thing. Chicago, from my recollection, Chicago, Denver, and Dallas are all,

depending on what portion of the city you're going into, like eight to nine hours away. And so it could have been Nuggets. It could have been Mavs. It could have been Bulls. Now it's Oklahomalahoma city pretty easily um i don't think we there was a memphis team back then but memphis is closer than all those now as well yeah okay well it was just you probably you fell in love with larry and yeah robert parish and dj and mikhail and all those guys had to be it i bet i bet i, I've never seen you play basketball, Heath,

but I bet you model your game after Larry Bird. No, I never could shoot anywhere close to that good. Really? I was more of a Rodman Lambeer type. That doesn't surprise me much. Yeah, they should have been a Pistons fan, I guess. Could have been a Pistons fan. Anyway, there was a lot to learn from that final play of the game.

It was a great play. It was really cool. Great stuff. All right, listen. The game, too, by the way, is on Wednesday, unfortunately. It seems like we might have three crappy games tonight, but you can check all the coverage out on CBS Sports HQ. Now, more importantly, if you have a small business, if you ship a lot of things, you need to be using Stamps.com.

Go to Stamps.com, click the microphone at the top of the page, enter the code FFT, and there's a great offer for you, which I'm going to tell you about in just a minute. But time is money. Don't waste either with repeated trips to the post office. With stamps.com, you can skip the trip and focus on how to take your small business to the next level. Stamps.com lets you print official postage right from your computer, and it saves you money in the process so you can spend less time at the post office and more time making your customers happy. Basically, whatever you can do at the post office, you can do it right from your home. It's iviewstamps.com. It's really convenient. It's really easy to use. Gives you access to all the post office and UPS shipping services you need right from your

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So stop overpaying for shipping with stamps.com. Sign up with the promo code FFT for a special offer. You're going to get a four-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale. No long-term commitments or contracts. Just go to stamps.com, click the microphone at the top of the page, and enter the code FFT. And now let's get into Heath's dynasty rankings. So consensus, according to fantasy pros, Tyreek Hill is number nine, and Heath has him 16th. So this is dynasty. Remember, this is obviously taking in what we expect in 2021,

but it's also the future. So Tyreek Hill, consensus, ninth, and you've got him 16th in his first year with the Dolphins. Yeah, and there's a little bit like to a much lesser degree of the same thing that we kind of talked about with um woods and robinson to be a top 10 dynasty wide receiver at 28 years old with all the great young wide receivers we have right now in the nfl i need to feel like you're challenging to be the number one wide receiver this season. I think it's more possible right now for Devontae Adams than it is

for Tyreek Hill. I just need to see him in this offense. Is he going to get any of the big plays downfield? Are they going to use him more close to the line of scrimmage like what happened last year or like what the 49ers did with Debo? And if they do, can his frame hold up to that type type of violence? Because he does not take a lot of heat hits, at least in the chiefs, chiefs offense. I don't think he'll have the efficiencies had in Kansas city, obviously,

because he's not playing with Patrick Mahomes, but also I don't, I have a hard time projecting the target share unless they are just a super pass heavy team with both Waddle and Gusecki there as well. Okay. I have a hard time projecting the target share unless they are just a super pass-heavy team with both Waddle and Gasicki there as well. Okay, so I'm going to pull up Heath's rankings in Dynasty, and you can always do that if you go to cbssports.com slash fantasy, go to our football page, and there's a Dynasty Central link,

and you can see all the rankings there. You were on it today. That was an excellent reference and segue as you were pulling up the rankings there. But just some players... You were on it today. That was an excellent reference and segue as you were pulling up the rankings. Fantastic. Yeah. So you have, for example, you have Jalen Waddell well ahead of him.

Stefan Diggs, Debo Samuel. Remember, everybody, this is Dynasty, not season long. Godwin, DJ Moore, McLaurin, Elijah Moore. Elijah Moore ahead of Tyreek Hill. I mean, that's pretty... That's something right there. Dave you what's your reaction to that I get it in terms of Elijah Moore is going to be around for a long time I I can't help but think that that's got potential to change after day one of the draft if the Jets go and spend one of their

two first round picks on a wide receiver. Obviously that crushes Elijah Moore. So I would keep that one very much in pencil, but I can also make the case that if the Jets don't take a wide receiver with one of their first round picks and maybe not even one in round two, then they see Elijah Moore as their number one receiver long-term and somebody who does deserve some consideration as a long-term type of prospect ahead of Tyreek Hill. The thing that annoys me with Hill is that I almost feel like his value, based on the consensus, is not even taking the Dolphins offense into consideration and what it might look like. The fact that he's got Tua as his quarterback for the foreseeable

future. The fact that last year he wasn't even top 20 in terms of consistency rate when he was with Kansas City. And there's no guarantee about the same type of target volume. Everything's up in the air for Tyreek Hill, who's now 28 years old and just got paid and changed teams. So I get where Heath's at 100%. So, Dave, if you were going to choose between Chris Godwin, who is entering his age 26 season, or Tyreek Hill, 28, who would you take? Heath has Godwin four spots ahead. Yeah, I would too.

I think that Godwin, even with the ACL and coming back from that, and not nearly as explosive as a wide receiver, excuse me, and a wide receiver who's going to have a different quarterback at some point in his career i think he stands out as a safer dynasty receiver than tyreek so i think the interesting thing i'm going to do this a little bit because i've been thinking about this i haven't got any of the rookies put into my actual position rankings and i generally do that right after the nfl draft but i like to kind of think about it as we're doing it.

And one of the things I've seen a lot over the last couple of days of Garrett Wilson as the first wide receiver off the board to the Falcons at number eight. Yep, that's starting to pick up some steam. And I just wonder, like, if he's taken there, is he ahead of Elijah Moore? Is he ahead of Tyreek Hill?

Like, where does he fall into that wide receiver two range? I think he'll be a top 20 guy for sure. Um, I don't know if he'll quite get ahead of Hill with Mariota is the only quarterback. And I think that ranking Waddle well ahead of Hill is interesting because Waddle's potential is obviously linked to how good Hill is going to be. Um,

and for how long, so Waddle, I think it's really interesting to think like, who do you think it sees more targets next year? Jalen Waddle or Tyree Hill? Hill. I can make the case for Waddle. I'm not sure at all.

I can make the case for both. Sure. I just, yeah, I gut says Hill. Yeah. If that offensive line performs better than it did last year, that's, that's a huge key for Tyreek. If that line is bleeding defenders, then it's going to be one of those situations like we've talked about over the last couple of years. The Godwin taking over as the number one in Tampa thing in terms of targets.

The Ridley taking over from Julio is the number one. That will be right around the corner. I would expect year two or year three at the latest, Waddell's going to be better than Hill. Okay. I think that people have the idea, maybe not our audience. I think they kind of understand what happened with the Chiefs last year. But you have the idea of Tyreek Hill as kind of a low target, high yards per catch, high yards per target

guy, but he averaged 10 targets per game last year before week 18 when he played 14 snaps. 9.8 targets per game. He had 156 targets, so different role, and he earned those mega targets.

All right. Marquise Brown, here's a fun one. Consensus 31 wide receiver, 31 for Marquise Brown and Heath has Marquise Brown wide receiver, 18, just two spots behind Tyree kill. Man, what has, what has Marquise Brown done to earn wide receiver 18 in your dynasty rankings? i think um his last 17 games with lamar jackson are basically a top five fantasy wide receiver what else he was a superstar in the second half of 2020 he was a superstar in the first half of 2021 and then his quarterback got hurt now there's uncertainty because he's on this bal team that last year was the first time they've even thrown the ball kind of normal. It's been a super heavy run attack and Mark Andrews is the

actual number one there, but I still view Brown as a solid number two, maybe borderline number two wide receiver. And he's 24, 25 years old. Okay. 25 when the season starts this year. Birthday's in June. The biggest worry I've got with Brown is durability. And I felt like I was sensing some frustration from John Harbaugh during his press conferences during the year once Brown started to get hurt. Now, a guy with his kind of speed

is going to last in the NFL for a long time. Think about all the receivers that play into their 30s that are able to keep up that type of speed. So he's going to play for a while. I don't think you have to worry about that in Dynasty. I think you have to worry about who he's catching passes from, what type of offense is he in, what type of opportunities does he get, particularly if he's on a team that's kind of frustrated with him being on and off the field and on and off the practice field and i think it's worth noting that over the past two seasons combined marquise brown's missed one game yeah but he's played hurt through a bunch and sometimes he's come out what coach wants you to

do like everybody's playing hurt every i mean yeah everybody plays sore but there have been times where he's just been there have been times where he's been frustrating for the ravens but then he goes out and he plays and he does okay yeah well he's definitely been frustrating for fantasy managers because he has been kind of hot and cold and i guess we've had i always like those guys a little more than consensus i think right like the tyler lockett tyreek hill at times those are the guys that they can win you weeks it's just you know marquise brown could have two straight weeks of four for 50 and then he breaks out with a six for 129 and two i totally bought into his breakout first eight games first eight games he was on a 17-game pace of 98 catches, 1,449 yards,

and 13 touchdowns. And that included the Detroit game where he dropped three touchdowns. I think two were on the same possession. So let's say two more touchdowns and a ton of yards. And then in the last eight games of the season, he did not score a touchdown. And he had 55 or fewer yards in all eight games.

And he still had a lot of targets. He had a ton of targets. And he was on pace for 164 targets in those eight games per 17 games. He averaged 4.2 yards per target in those last eight games. And some of them were with Lamar Jackson. The first three of those eight were with Lamar Jackson. And I think maybe it's just that Lamar Jackson. The first three of those eight were with Lamar Jackson.

I think maybe it's just that he has shown us glimpses but hasn't been able to put it together for a full season. People are maybe a little worried about that. I got to be honest. I don't really know where people stand on Marquise Brown. I think he's going to be polarizing.

The consensus has him as a low-end number three wide receiver yeah 31 is low like 31 for you is uh is who is it rashad bateman ironically there we go who are the five names after hollywood brown in your rankings dynasty dynasty rankings, Heath. Uh, we're going to talk about two of them in the next 10 minutes, but cool. Devante Smith, Deontay Johnson,

Jerry, Judy, Juju, Smith, Schuster, Amon Ross, St. Brown.

David, you put anything. The first two names ahead of Marquise Brown. That's Devante Smith and Deontay Johnson. For sure. And then it's Jerry, Judy, Juju, Smith, Schuster, and Amon Ross, St. Brown. Okay's Devante Smith and Deontay Johnson. For sure. And then it's Jerry Judy, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Amandra St. Brown. Okay.

Alright, so why don't we take a little break here? Oh, by the way, I wanted to reveal these Twitter poll results. I want to know, do people, who do people think is the best wide receiver on Baltimore? Marquise Brown or Rashad Bateman? The answer, right after this on Fantasy Football Today. What does possible sound like for your business?

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Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Welcome back. I'm sure you're all curious. This is not a fantasy football question, just a regular football question. Who do you think is a better wide receiver, Marquise Brown or Rashad Bateman? Only 467 votes so far, and 61% Marquise Brown, 39% Rashad Bateman. I just retweeted it, so hopefully that helps Marquise out.

Get some more action there. Moving on to some more dynasty discrepancies between Heath's rankings and the consensus. Deontay Johnson and Juju Smith-Schuster, you're actually lower on Johnson than consensus. You have him 20th in your dynasty rankings and the industry consensus rankings have him 14th.

And you're higher on Juju. But we'll start with Deontay Johnson. And well, you just flat out just don't like him. You just don't like Deontay Johnson. I think. No, like that is something I have nothing wrong with Deontay Johnson, the person I know nothing, nothing negative about him. And I don't want to insinuate that I don't like him. I doubt he likes me very much. Um, he told me that he's a big fan of the beard. I have always been skeptical that he was as good as his target share. And the guy who was giving him that target share is not there anymore.

And I don't like, I thought that when Roethlisberger left, maybe they would improve a quarterback and maybe Mitchell Trubisky will be a slight improvement. But I also think it probably means less pass volume for the team because I don't think they wanted to throw as much as they did last year. Ben Roethlisberger

didn't like running plays very much. He'd just call a pass play and then throw it two yards instead of handing it off. And it's just like I do agree with the idea that targets are earned and I do agree with the idea that volume matters more than anything else, but he has been nothing but volume. The efficiency is one of the worst of all time for a player to earn as many targets as he has, or at least of the most recent time period, the 2000s. I don't know if the efficiency is going to improve with Trubisky

or a rookie quarterback, and I don't think it's likely he keeps this target share. Are there specific efficiency metrics that really make you nervous with Deontay? Yards per target. He's at 6.8 for his career. He was at 6.9 last year that's a a really good running back or a like a jason whitten type tight end number um and like go ahead go ahead i'll find

what i'm looking for for instance guys like tyree kill and tyler lockett who are the best are generally closer to 10 yards per target. Most good wide receivers, I think, are over 8. And it might be that the quarterback is just the problem on that or the offense is just the problem on that. But I don't know that it gets any better this year. What I wanted to look up is yards per route run for Deontay Johnson because I know he's running a ton of routes.

Certainly last year and the past several years, the Steelers have done a lot of that. Now, if that number were to come in real low, I would start to get a little nervous. And I don't know, it might be. That's what I'm looking up right now. Okay. Let me see. So the Steelers had the fourth most pass attempts and the fifth fewest rush attempts in the NFL last year. So that's kind of, Heath is banking on that not being so lopsided. And yeah, I mean, that would hurt. I just, who's taking targets away from Deontay Johnson? He's, yeah, they could draft him.

No, it's like he might get 30%, but 30% of 100 fewer targets is a big difference when the only thing you're getting is catches really yeah yeah and he's not like like this distinction probably doesn't matter that much he's a year older than marquise brown another guy we're going to talk about in just a minute juju smith schuster um i think is actually like three months younger than him like i don't know that we should expect a big change in his efficiency unless he gets with just an elite quarterback or something right that's going to be half the equation and getting trubisky instead of roethlisberger will give him a quarterback who can probably throw

with a little bit more power down the field as silly as that sounds to say that Trubisky can throw with power, but I think he can. I just don't know if he's going to be nearly as cerebral of a quarterback or understanding of how defenses are as Roethlisberger was. So I think that you've got to hang your hat on the targets volume for him, at least for next year. But if the Steelers do a good job of getting a long-term solution at quarterback i think deontay johnson will have the opportunity to prove that he can

be a more efficient pass catcher even if the target share does go down or maybe not the share that's not the right word the volume goes down he's at 1.89 yards per targets per route run i have no idea if that's good or bad i think that's close to good it ranks 33rd oh that's not among all i'm sorry yards per route run that targets per route run 1.89 that's 30 he was getting 1.89 targets per route run that would be elite yeah yeah yeah maybe wide receiver one yeah it'd be impossible to do that. So my mistake for saying that. I pulled a McAdoo. 1.89 isn't bad, but you're always looking for a number two or higher. So it's close.

That's good. Heath, would you rather have this year Marquise Brown or Deontay Johnson? Redraft. Right now, I'd rather have Deontay Johnson. Same. Okay, how about Deontay Johnson or Terry McLaurin?

In Dynasty or Redraft both in dynasty i would take mclaurin in redraft i currently that might be a ppr versus non no i've got mclaurin higher than both i got deontay higher than both. In redraft, it's by two spots. I don't do dynasty receiver rankings, but if I did, they'd be very close together. They're not necessarily the same receiver, but they're in the same situation where you can't possibly believe that the quarterback that they have now

is going to be there two to four years from now. I think this is part of my process, maybe a little window into that as well. The big difference for me in Dynasty is I think Terry McLaurin has considerably more upside than Deontay Johnson. I think if they were both put into the same situation, I mean, we're talking about Deontay Johnson hasn't had a good quarterback yet. Terry McLaurin would kill for Deontay Johnson. I think if they were both put into the same situation, I mean, we're talking about Deontay Johnson hasn't had a good quarterback yet.

Terry McLaurin would kill for Deontay Johnson's quarterback. You think so? I think if McLaurin or Deontay ended up with a really good quarterback, McLaurin is better. But I mean, that's just my opinion. I think Johnson could play like McLaurin. I think that's within his range. The problem is that the Steelers,

at least for the past couple of seasons, have been handcuffed by a quarterback that just can't throw the ball downfield with good velocity, etc. And I think that that's kind of hurt what DeAndre Johnson's game can be. I think when you look

at your wide receiver rankings, who's the first wide receiver, the highest ranked wide receiver in your rankings. And I know this is a dynasty show, but I just let's spin it to just 2022 redraft. Who is the first or highest ranked wide receiver in your rankings that you look at and say, wow, he might be on a bad offense.

Brandon cook. Whoa. I was looking at projections. I think I still have cooks ahead of those guys. So Brandon cooks, you have McClure. I'm seeing McLaur Cooks ahead of those guys, so Brandon Cooks. I'm seeing McLaurin 15, Cooks 16, Johnson 17, so right there. Yeah, I have Cooks the highest in the

projections, but I've pulled Cooks down because I don't want people to think I'm crazy. Can we say the Dolphins are a good offense? No, if it's not one of the three that Heath said, I'm thinking it's probably the Dolphins. They could be bad, but I donins, that they could be bad. But I don't know if they'll be bad.

But they're not the Bucs, you know? You're talking about Tyreek Hill versus Chris Godwin. They're not going to be the Cowboys. You're talking about Tyreek Hill versus CeeDee Lamb. Do the Titans qualify? Yeah, it could be A.J. Brown. I don't know. But the impact just comes down to amazing receiver.

I hope no one really did tell him that he was a diva or a problem because he's awesome. But he's on an offense that fundamentally wants to be balanced and run the ball and be different. I don't know if you guys heard me sneeze, but you didn't say bless you, so that's pretty messed up. Shagger, what do you think? Can we save tight ends for another show yeah let's do it next week uh next

week's gonna be two weeks yeah three weeks someday in the future um i tell you what i can do that one real quick sell dawson knox buy rob gronkowski sell hunter henry there we go buy rob gronkowski he literally may not play again he's cheap tight end 25 and the consensus almost nothing right and for you he's 15th you'd rather have gronk than knox i'd rather have gronk than knox or henry gronk might win me the league next year right right okay so then i want to i want to talk about Keenan Allen because consensus is wide receiver 22 in Dynasty for Keenan Allen, and Heath has him at wide receiver 29. And he's getting up there in age. Keenan Allen's going to be 30 this year.

He's actually going to be 30 in a few days. And Heath, do you think we're seeing signs of the end of the road, which is obviously the best Boyz II Men song. It is odd that the last two years, his efficiency has been significantly worse than it was the prior five in terms of yards per catch and yards per target. And yet he's had a better quarterback in those two years.

So yes, if you wanted to point to that as a possibility for a sign of decline in terms of efficiency, I think it is. I think you'll also probably see the Chargers run a few fewer plays next year. They were still, I mean, they're a good offense. They're going to be high-paced. But I wouldn't be surprised if Mike Williams gets a little higher share of the targets either. Dave, do you think we're seeing something? I mean, I think there are some

signs here with Keenan Allen that this is the first time in five years that he didn't lead the team in receiving. He was eight yards behind Mike Williams. Yeah, the yards per target, the yards per catch, the catch rate, it's all kind of a little below what you would typically expect

from him. Whereas he ranked in big plays, 20-plus yard catches in the last five years, eighth, 23rd, 21st, and then the last two years, 43rd and 34th. So we're seeing fewer big plays from him. I think it's pretty interesting because... I don't know, he's been... Also, he finished 13th per game at wide receiver and full PPR,

which is actually pretty low for him. He's always top 12. He was 13th, but a lot of times he's like 6th. So, yeah. Could this be a guy that could be a... Do you see bust potential for Keenan Allen? Not yet. Ask me that a week and a few days from now. Ask me that after the draft because if the chargers add one of these quality receivers um within their first 100 not their 100 picks they don't have 100 picks but within the first three rounds of the draft i was going to say within the first

100 picks of the draft uh that that would be a telling sign and i do i i don't off the top of the dome i don't know if this is factual or not but I do think there's a chance they can move on from him after this year without much of a cap hit. What I like about last year is not only, would you say 13th in PPR points per game? Yeah. Yeah, he was right around there for me. He was eighth in consistency.

He was sixth in targets per game. So even if that, if the targets per game drop just a little bit and the consistency drops a little bit, he still has room to finish as a top 15 type of fantasy receiver. I think you draft him accordingly in full PPR, and then if it's non-PPR, you move him down significantly lower if those catches don't count, especially if they add another big play over the top type of wide receiver yeah and just to verify keenan allen

21 million dollar cap hit next in 2023 which i guess would be a hit or the dead money cap hit the dead money is only so he's staying for another year yeah now in dynasty he has him 29th and again consensus dynasty rankings on keenan allen was 21, I believe, right? 22, sorry. That's the old guy portion of the rankings. Hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on. His cap number is $21.7 million next year, but they save almost $15 million if they cut him after this year. That's what I said.

I didn't hear you say that. I just heard the $21 million cap number. Well, cap hit and cap number are different. Different, yes. That's the old guy portion of the rankings. Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Brandon Cooks, Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins. Six straight wide receivers just outside of the top 24 in Dynasty.

All 28 and older. Mike Evans, Cooper, Brandon Cooks, Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins. Yeah. 24 and dynasty all 28 and older mike evans cooper brandon cooks michael thomas keenan allen deandre hopkins yeah i mean it's interesting some of the guys you have ahead of him are that whole group some of the guys you have ahead of that group are jerry judy juju smith schuster amandra saint brown and darnell mooney and that's part of the problem that i talk about all the time with dynasty rankings if you have a team one of the three or four teams that could really win it this year, then all those old guys are better than all the young guys you just said. But if you are not competing for a championship, those guys are combustible.

You don't want to go into a game with them on your roster because Dynasty value might crater in one game. You know, one thing, though, about Allen is I wonder, do you think he'll age better than Evans, Cooper, Cooks, Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins? Because he is a great route runner, and I think it was Danny Woodhead. Yeah, it was Danny Woodhead said that Keenan Allen was one of the best route runners he had seen. We had Danny Woodhead on one of our shows. And, I mean, I guess I would compare him to Julian Edelman.

Edelman at ages 30, 32, and 33. He missed his age 31 season with an injury. He was kind of like what you sort of expect from Keenan Allen. You know, about 70 yards. He averaged 70 yards per game all three years, right around there. He's on pace for around 100 or so catches, maybe more than that. Didn't he also have a suspension for taking

something at the end of that stretch? I think he missed four games in one of those years. What did he have? What did he have? That's hard to say because I don't, he is an elite route runner.

When Amari Cooper's healthy, he's a, like he loses people silly. He's a good route runner. Michael Thomas, his whole Twitter account is can't guard Mike. Can't do it.

These guys are all pretty, except for Evans. Evans and Cooks, I guess maybe not, but. Yeah. I guess it's just, I guess, maybe not. Yeah. I guess it's just as long as he keeps getting all these

targets, Keenan Allen, he's probably going to continue to be Edelman-esque. He's been a slightly better version of Edelman. Larry Fitzgerald became that kind of player, right? Late in his career. Well, not... Not lately. Before the late, late portion

of his career. Okay. Anything else you want to add, Heath, before we wrap this up? I'm good. Okay. Heath has to jump. Dave, you and I will read some emails. Perfect. Bye, Heath. Oh, he already said... Say goodbye, Heath.

Come on. Be a gentleman. Ah. This is from Dominic. What's up? Thurgood Jenkins, Scarface, Brian and Kenny Davis. I feel like I should know that,

but I don't. He's from, I don't know if I should do the accent. So I won't. He's from right near the beach boy. That's just half, half baked. Come's from right near the beach, boy. This is half-baked. Come on, come on. Okay, fine.

Can you talk about quarterback values and where to draft them? I have a 12-team half PPR, six-point-per-passing touchdown league. I was thinking of keeping Russell Wilson in the seventh round and Deshaun Watson in the 15th round. He's not a 2QB league. My other options are pretty bad. Medcalf and Mixon in the 15th round. He's going to keep, he's not a two QB league. My other options are pretty bad. Medcalf and Mixon in the first round, a bunch of bad players,

Antonio Brown, Miles Gaskin. What are the expectations for these quarterbacks changing teams and where do they rank specifically Watson and Wilson? Watson is an incredible bargain, a screaming bargain at 15th. I would keep him unless we learned that he's not going to play this year, in which case I would not keep him.

But even if he's suspended for six games, we've been kind of batting that around as a possibility. I'm good with him. 15th round, that's fine. Wilson, in average drafts, I would imagine he'll go before the seventh round too. But I also don't mind keeping Mixon in the first round, depending on where that first round pick is. If it's at the real back end of round one, I'm in. If it's the middle of round one, probably not in.

Definitely not in on keeping Mixon if it's a top five pick that you're looking at. And if you're not sure where that pick is, you have to declare your keepers before you know your draft order. Then you've got to let Mixon go. You could conceivably then, and I know this sounds weird, I don't love it, but you could keep both Wilson and Watson, but I would probably just lean toward keeping Watson at the value that you've got him at. Jeff in South Jersey. Hey, Jimmy, Kim, Howard, and Mike. No? Mm-mm. Jimmy, Kim, Howard, and Mike.

It's got to be Better Call Saul. Okay. Which was very good. I stopped watching it, but I wish I hadn't. 12-team PPR Keeper League. I saw the writing on the wall early last season. I made moves for the future. I now have pick 101, three picks in each

of rounds three and four, and Jamar Chase as a sixth round keeper. In other words, I can never play fantasy again if I screw this up. I disagree with that, by the way. I don't know how valuable... You can always play fantasy no matter how bad you screw it. I don't disagree with that. I disagree with the premise that

you've got three picks in rounds three and four and that's some huge advantage. It's not a rookie draft. Oh, then. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

You can't, you can't screw this up. Don't do that for my second league, not a dynasty. Yeah, my bad for my second keeper. Should I keep Josh Allen or cam acres? It would be a 13th round pick,

but this would be the last year I can keep Allen. I can keep acres again for a 12th round pick in 2023. You're going to see acres get picked before Josh Allen in, in overwhelming majority of fantasy drafts as things stand. Now, the only way that I would tell you to keep Allen is if the Rams spend, well, they don't have much draft capital to even get a running back.

So it's probably not going to happen. Wait until the very last moment to declare your keepers. If there's no bad news on cam acres and it looks like he's going to be good to go for training camp, keep him and throw back Josh Allen, even at that crazy value. And Steven, where's he from?

Baltimore, Maryland, Steven. I'm just going to sum up his uh his tldr too long didn't read i now seem to have one of the better dynasty rosters in my league i have the number five overall pick this year in the rookie draft and two second rounders in 2023 so he also has mich Thomas. Would you trade Michael Thomas now for a better starter or a future draft pick while his value seems to still be somewhat good or roll with the current team and see how the season plays out? And he does have a, I would say a pretty good, you know, compete to win now team. So how does Michael Thomas fit in? I don't love his bench and michael thomas is currently his best bench player by a mile you mean you're not a big fan of nick westbrook akina and i am definitely

not okay so the the first thought that i had in my head was if you can turn michael thomas into a first round pick next year i would do that i i wouldn't necessarily i would consider it for first round pick this year just depends on where that. I wouldn't necessarily, I would consider it for a first round pick this year. It just depends on where that first round pick is, where you can basically exchange Michael Thomas for one of the top receivers in the draft, whether it's Wilson or London, Burks or Jameson Williams, Chris Alave, you guys know the names. But if you can't get either one of those deals, I think the next best thing to do is just to hang on to Thomas. It looks like you could potentially need him as a starter since you've got Saquon and J.K. Tobbins as your flexes.

I don't know how many games those guys are going to end up playing. And our last email is from Jason in Seattle. Dear Brandon, Earl, Richard, and Cam. Those are members of the LOB. That's right. Legion of Boom. And those are Seahawks defensive backs. 12-team dynasty, non-PPR.

What a defense that was, man. They were good. Great teams. So a 12-team dynasty, and it's non-PPR. My team is stacked, and in a previous trade, I ended up with pick 102 and 202 in this draft. With the draft class being weak and my team being stacked, I'm thinking about

packaging 102 and 202 for future picks. What do you think is valuable for picks 102 and 202? 2023 first and a 2024 first? A 2023 first and a 2023 second? Or other ideas?

I don't know enough about 2024. I don't think it makes sense to trade the 102 and the 202 this year for a first and a second next year where you don't know where those picks are going to be. No way. I wouldn't trade it for him.

I'm looking at his roster. His running backs are Mixon, Cook, Chubb, Saquon. Yeah, he's got some good running backs, but some of them could be expired in the next couple of years. I wouldn't trade. Because pick 102 in any draft class is very

valuable. And I don't know that this is such a weak draft class. It ain't bad when you're at 102. Yeah. And you'd make a trade. It's probably Kenneth Walker. You never know where that first round pick is going to end up. You trade this for a future first.

I would not trade away 102. I wouldn't trade 102 unless you're getting a first in 2023 and something else along the way. But yeah, but we already said don't do it for another second oh oh i'm sorry you're saying he's got a very mature team i mean i i could run down the whole squad for you but like his youngest starter is cd lamb and his next youngest starter is aj brown and then his next youngest starter after that is probably like Joe Mixon. He's got a lot of, he's got Kelsey, he's got Deshaun Watson, he's got Devante. He's got a lot of aging players.

His window's open. He's trying to win now. It's cool that you've got the 102. I would put it up on the trade block, see if you can get some really good offers for future picks. Would not trade it straight up for a first in 2023. You need more than that. You might need a quarterback. If Deshaun Watson gets suspended for, I don't know, six games to 17 games,

you might need another quarterback. Okay, is Kirk Cousins. You might need another quarterback. Nah, you can probably get by with Kirk, but if you're trying to really win now, who knows what you could pull off. I don't know. You're not going to be able to get a great quarterback

and a first-round pick next year. That's probably not going to happen. But you can probably get somebody like Kirk Cousins for a first and something else for your first. You know what I'm saying? So maybe that's not the move you make. So my bad for suggesting that. I didn't see Cousins on the team.

Look, if you get a good offer on 102, take it. Otherwise, get ready to take a running back. All right, cool. Thanks, Dave. Thanks, Heath. Thanks, Shraggy B. Thanks to all of you for watching and listening. Join our NFL Draft Contest.

Just fill out the form and spell everybody's name right. Good luck to you. And we will talk to you on Thursday with some early average draft position. Reviewing that on Thursday on Fantasy Football Today. See you later, everybody.