Fantasy Football Today - Early Breakouts! Javonte Williams, Tony Pollard and More (04/05 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: April 5, 2022

Get ready for some big seasons from our early breakout candidates! Dave makes the case for Tony Pollard (4:35) as we wonder if Ezekiel Elliott was really as bad as people thought he was last season, and then Heath talks about Javonte Williams (9:30). Does Williams have Top 5 potential? ... Discussing the fun Eagles-Saints trade and what it means for the NFL Draft (16:50), and then we give you more RB breakouts (20:30). Do we prefer Michael Carter or Devin Singletary? ... At QB, Justin Fields put up solid Fantasy numbers late in his rookie season. Imagine what he could do as a sophomore (31:40)! Then we get into our WR breakouts (35:40) as Kadarius Toney, Allen Lazard and Michael Pittman are among the players discussed ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. Tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. We are talking breakouts. League winners potentially here. Players who are going to have huge seasons. We're excited to talk about these guys. We're excited to talk about anybody, but especially the breakouts.

Adam Azer, Dave Richard, and Heath Cummings. Rock Chalk, Heath Cummings. What's up, Heath? Congratulations. Did you fall asleep at halftime? All upset?? Congratulations. Did you fall asleep at halftime? All upset? Oh, I did not fall asleep at halftime. We had a very specific plan.

We watched the game outside and had a fire going outside just to kind of give us an atmosphere to where we wouldn't be sitting on the couch in a comfortable seat and falling asleep because the game didn't get over until midnight. And I watched WrestleMania the night before. So zero sleep for me the last two days. But it was phenomenal.

Really, really fun game. Yeah, I wish I could say that they didn't deserve it. They got lucky. It was a bad call. None of that. The thing is, they were clearly the best team. Yeah. But that

first half was an embarrassing performance. They really didn't deserve it with the way they played in the first half, but they played well enough in the second half to make up for it. Yeah. It was a really good game and a really good... I'm not going to use the T word. A really good

participation amongst all those teams. The tournament was fantastic. The St. Peter's was fun. Yeah. I thought it was fun that in the first half, Remy Martin looked like he'd never played bad. His shot, he was so jacked up or scared or something.

And it was ugly. The only shot he made was a banked in three and then in the second half he's the hero he said something about him scoring his 2000 point right it was that and then he ever after that everything seemed to go for him but i can read you what i wrote about remy martin because he is i am so uh amazed by him. What did I say? Remy Martin is annoying, but he's a winner. Clutch is hell. He really is.

He's their guy down the stretch. And I also said, and Hubert Davis belongs in the student section. Relax. This was a live stream of my thoughts. Hey, Dave. Hubert Davis was awesome, and I'm very happy for him also. But I saw the comparison between Remy Martin and Trey Young, like a lesser Trey Young, and that fits really, really well.

Yeah. All right. Sorry, Dave. Dave did an AL-only fantasy baseball draft yesterday and drafted all White Sox. So that's a good strategy. It's not a joke. It's really true.

I can't believe Jamie let me get away with it. But we've got – we kept Aloy Jimenez. I will be so brief on this. We, we kept Aloy Jimenez. We got Tim Anderson. We got Jose Abreu. We drafted Lance Lynn in round nine. I don't even know any of the other players that we got on the team.

I'm just going to let Jamie take the wheel on that and very happy with our AL only team. I'm also very happy for the Kansas Jayhawks gentlemen, just because what, Adam, what did I say on the show yesterday? What was I going to do? You said you're going to, you were going to make a live bet if they were trailing. And I did. So I'm, I, yeah, I've been a Jayhawks fan for many, many hours now and, uh, really thrilled to see our team. Heath come through in the end, win the national championship, and I will be absolutely loyal until probably, I don't know, Wednesday.

And I think it's a good time to just go ahead and name the Jayhawks the 2020 national champions as well. We didn't have a tournament that year. They were the best team in the country. They were ranked number one when the season was called off. They always retroactively give championships.

Like they gave Kansas the title in 1921 and 1922 because they didn't have a tournament or something. So, yeah, I think that I'm going to also claim the 2020 title today as well. What the hell? Why don't you give them 2023 while you're at it? Hey, look, by Heath's logic, Gonzaga would have a lot of championships, OK? Be a number one going into something. I don't know how Gonzaga usually ends up. I'm going to tell you who won our March Madness pool in a little bit.

Let's get your favorite breakout. Dave, give me one of your favorites, if not your favorite breakout for 2022. I think one of my favorite breakouts will be Tony Pollard of the Dallas Cowboys. I did some digging on him yesterday. Here are some stats. If you're a stat nerd, you'll like this. Here are the stats last year where Pollard was better than Ezekiel Elliott. Yards per carry, yards per carry versus eight in the box, rush EPA, yards before contact per rush, yards after contact per rush, negative rushes. Zeke had more than Tony Pollard. Five-plus rush yard rate, meaning how often they were getting

five-plus yards on a carry. Pollard beat them there. Twelve-plus rush yards rate. Those are called explosive runs. Pollard wins there. Third and fourth down conversion rate. Avoided tackle rate. Target per route run.

Yards per route run. Yards after catch per reception. Success rate, whether it's on a run or a reception. All of those stats, Tony Pollard was better than Ezekiel Elliott last year. And here's the other thing. Pollard averaged 11.2 touches per game last year. Zeke was at 16.7. And yet on the year, total yards per game,

and there were many games where Pollard was the runaway guy in that offense, he had about five fewer yards per game total than Ezekiel Elliott. I wish I could go to Mike McCarthy or Kellen Moore and drop that little nugget on them about all these stats that Pollard is better than Zeke on and ask them if that means anything to them. And they would probably, on the record, give me lip service about how, well, Zeke's been a great contributor for a long time.

But they watch the film and they know that Ezekiel Elliott is an explosive. And Adam, you've been talking about that for two years. Hold on. Yes, I know because you bring this up a lot. So he lost his big play ability or he wasn't making them, going into the 2021 season. And I talked about it a lot. But then he said he was getting in better shape. He was going to lose weight. And we got to give Zeke credit.

He started this season very well. Now, the Tampa Bay game in week one, we all remember, was really bad. 11 carries, 33 yards. But after that, for four or five weeks or so, he was very good. He was an elite running back, playing very well, and getting some of those explosive plays back. Then he hurt his PCL. He sprained his PCL in week four.

So I do think that has to be part of this discussion. Ezekiel Elliott played 17 games, and he played almost the entire season with a partially torn PCL, and then he stunk. We all saw it with our own eyes. Ezekiel Elliott was probably holding Dallas back more than anything else. I mean,

they really should have just gone to Tony Pollard and they didn't. But I do think that a healthy Zeke was really, really good at the start of the season. So that is the only thing that I worry about. They've also, Tony Pollard had two carries inside the five yard line. So as long as Zeke is there, that's his role. So react to what I said there because maybe Zeke just can't stay healthy. I don't know. Because he was two years in a row now. He's played hurt. The idea behind Pollard as a breakout candidate is you take him in round seven or eight.

At minimum, he can be a flex replacement or running back replacement. You're paying a pretty price for that but you know what the upside is if he ends up being the cowboys best running back then you're you're taking off you're getting a number one running back in round seven or eight all right heath uh go ahead with your favorite yeah i'm still trying to never mind no okay go go ahead. You can get in on the Cowboys. No, I was just thinking, the one thing I don't know is if the Cowboys believe that Tony Pollard is a real running back. A vast majority of his touches did not come in the traditional running back sense or on early downs between the tackles type thing. And the other thing I was going to say was like,

this is a pretty big Zeke bashing session for a guy that just basically had 1300 yards and 12 touchdowns. Okay. What do you think? Right. What do you think about Zeke last year? Um, I think he had some ups and he had some downs.

He was awful late in the year. It was the worst 1,300-yard 12-touchdown season ever. That's exactly what I said. He was really good before his injury, and he was terrible. Everybody knew it. I mean, the Cowboys beat writers were writing, or the columnists at least, were writing about it, that he shouldn't be starting anymore.

Why can't we just accept that? He wasn't good. He was holding them back. He was doing nothing. He had a really bad stretch i also but i also think like what i'm saying about tony pollard goes back to zeke a lot of his touches just turned into run between the tackles because tony pollard was taking the fun place so why not rework the offense to have more of those fun plays which by the way would mean that you're relying on dac more which i think the offense to have more of those fun plays? Which, by the way, would mean that you're relying on Dak more, which I think the Cowboys have to do at this point.

Yeah. All right, Heath, ready for your guy? Yeah. Well, I'll just take the chalk off the table at the very beginning because it's everyone's favorite breakout candidate in Javante Williams. Yeah. I don't really think that he's going to have one of those top four or five type seasons, just because I do think either Melvin's coming back or they're going to chop

it up a little bit. But we already saw in the second half of last year that they, he earned a little bit more work on passing downs. And I think they're going to trust him more in the red zone than they did last year. And so I would expect if you look at what his role was in the second half of last year, it's more like what we're going to get for a full season this year.

And then you add on to that the fact that Russell Wilson has the potential to make this one of the best offenses in the nfl and so it could be a situation like if you look at his 17 game pace in the second half last year it's basically 1400 yards and 10 touchdowns i wouldn't be surprised if it's 1400 yards and 14 touchdowns okay so you don't think you could have Javante Williams. You don't see a top five finish. I don't think he's probably going to be a number one running back

that's not in the top five. Okay. I think that's probably the safest way to go about drafting him, which means you're taking him in the back half of round one. And as we sit here now, that doesn't sound so bad because who else is in Denver's backfield that's really going to take work away from him? But there's a bunch of things that could happen, certainly in the draft.

Potentially, if Melvin Gordon comes back after the draft on a cheap deal, it's going to make you a little bit nervous about taking Javante Williams in round one. The thing that I'll add is that Nathaniel Hackett's history with running backs, when he's called plays, very good. Four years he's called plays. The run game has ranked top 12 in rush attempts three out of the four years and top two in rushing yards two of the four years. Now, the other two years where they weren't top two in rushing yards, they weren't so great.

But there is upside. Hackett does like to lean on the run. And as much as they tout Russell Wilson being, he's going to be the inspiration for the offense. I don't know exactly what words they use, but certainly they're going to let Russ cook. I still think they're going to have to run the football. And I'm sure Russ will be happy when they do to take some of that pressure off of his shoulders from game to game, not necessarily in crunch time, but just in general, playing football, you want to be balanced. Javante, if he's good, could end up getting a lot of work in this offense and be well worth a first-round pick, even if there's another running back there in Denver who could

take work away in general. If you're following what I'm saying, if Javante is as good as we think he is, he'll earn a larger share of the workload, and this Broncos offense will be very good, and he'll be a huge part of it. Heath said 1,400 total yards and 14 touchdowns. Absolutely part of the ceiling for Javante Williams.

How do you guys see the running back position? It's a vague question, so let me tell you what I'm driving at here. We talk about this a lot with Dynasty, where we've got these running backs who have been great year after year, but they're getting up there in age. I think when I look at the elite running backs, I see a lot of question marks outside Jonathan Taylor. And even Jonathan Taylor is not your conventional number one PPR running back because he's in the 40 to 50 catch range. And I think he had the fewest catches for a number one running back since Adrian Peterson, I don't know, however many years ago. Not too long, but a little unusual for a running back number one in PPR to have as few catches as Taylor did.

So anyway, I see a potential transition period at running back, a transition year at running back, a transition year at running back, maybe an out with the old and with the new. Maybe I'm a year or two early on that. But to sum it up, I think Javante Williams is in the discussion to finish as the number two running back if everybody stays healthy. I just see a lot of question marks around a lot of running backs going in the first round. I think the problem with that statement was the if everybody stays healthy. I don't think if everybody stays healthy, Javante Williams is going to be better than Jonathan Taylor or Christian McCaffrey or Derrick Henry or Austin Eckler.

Now, I think in the terms of – I'm not even sure about Najee, but probably he could be in that. The thing I would say about the transition year is what's probably going to happen is it's going to be about half of a transition year. And next year is going to be half of a transition year. We've talked about those seven or eight running backs that are 27 or 28 years old. And McCaffrey and Barkley are 26. Or maybe Barkley is still 25. But in the same boat because of their injury histories. I think I wouldn't be surprised if half those guys just fall off the face of the earth this year.

But half of them will probably still be top 12 backs. You're right. I shouldn't have said the if everybody stays healthy thing because I think that there are guys in front of him who have bigger injury risks, specifically Christian McCaffrey. But you're right. Okay. Let's go to... We'll just break down that Eagle Saints trade, which is fun,

and then we'll get back into the breakouts. But I do have to congratulate Chris Warner. He won the March Madness pool. He beat Chris Shanklin by one point. So Chris Warner, congratulations. Kansas, Villanova, and Duke were in his final four. He's going home with a $100 Paramount Plus gift card and a spot in the 2022

Podcast League. Way to go, Chris. How did you guys do? I don't know. Let's find out. I was not really all that eager to look, Heath, if you believe that. I was really wanting a full breakdown of how each of the Fantasy Football Today

analysts did in this contest. That means he did the best. Well, he picked Kansas, so he must have. Yeah. Shaggar, what do you think? Can you hook us up with that info? I know that I finished 32nd. That is really good. I mean, it was

kind of a mediocre year for me. I only got two of the final four, but so did everybody. I finished 71stst no kidding uh i missed i missed the number i'm sorry i missed the number i finished 971st 971st that's that's not that's still better than me i think i think i clowned around with my bracket and that's why i uh did terrible but i don't really care because it's not like i'm if i won the bracket i couldn't claim the gift card i'm already in the podcast

oh but it's bragging rights yeah you somebody needs to knock me off you know what i'd rather save those bragging rights for the football season not not for college basketball. I don't want to be the college basketball guy on fantasy football today. By the way, we have a comment here from Ronald. Denver likes to use two running backs. You can't say that. We don't know. It's a brand new coaching staff. Well, we could say Nathaniel Hackett

likes to use two running backs. He has used two running backs frequently in the past. We'll see. Using two running backs doesn't mean the 50-50 split like we saw from the Broncos guys last year. Exactly. It might mean guy comes in and plays 25 snaps a game, gets 10 touches per game, and Javante gets the rest.

It's kind of what we're hoping for. All right. One news item here. The Saints acquired picks 16 and 19 from the Eagles, plus a sixth-round pick. They gave up pick 18. So they lose pick 18, but they get 16 and 19. They also lose a first-round pick next year,

and a third-round pick, and a seventh-round pick this year, and a second-round pick in 2024. So I think the headliners are Eagles give up 16 and 19, but get 18. Saints now have two first round picks. Eagles now have two first round picks. They had three. The Eagles get a first round pick next year.

So they'll have two right now. They have two first round picks in 2023. And they also get a second round pick in 2024. And there were some other picks moved around, but those are the headlines there. Do the Eagles now have the most picks this year? I don't think they do anymore. They were up there before this trade.

I thought they went up by one in this. No, I think they broke even. They got a first, a third, and a seventh, right? And they gave up two firsts and a sixth. They gave up a sixth as well. Right. They gave up three. They got three.

And then they've got two more in future years. The headline here is that Philadelphia now has ammo to get a quarterback in next year's draft if they don't like what Jalen Hurts does for them this year. And the other headline is New Orleans now has ammo to get a quarterback in this year's draft if they so choose. They can stay where they're at. You never know who's going to slide to 16. It could be Malik Willis. Almost certainly will be someone like Matt Corral or Desmond Ritter if they like those guys.

But they're doing this because they probably built their draft board and they love their top 20 list, and a bunch of quarterbacks are probably on that list. They can also take those picks and move to four or five if they had the opportunity to. Both these teams are in wide receiver territory in that 15 to 20 range. Basically, I think 10 to 30,

10 to 32 is going to be a lot of wide receivers off the board. I think so, too. They could come out of this with Garrett Wilson and Desmond Ritter or Chris Olave and Matt Corral. And kind of an exciting future there for that offense. I don't think Wilson's going to last that long, do you? I don't know. It seems to be a consensus that Drake London's going to go first.

I think Ryan Wilson has Garrett Wilson seventh or eighth overall in his last mock. In overall, meaning like the eighth pick. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, I'm not sure if the receivers are going to go top 10. I don't know if there's a receiver that's top 10 worthy in this draft. I'm studying them pretty hardcore.

He is, Gary Wilson, going eighth to the Falcons. Yeah, the Falcons and the Panthers especially strike me as teams that could trade down. They were also teams that met with Malik Willis this week. All right, guys. I think he's met with the Steelers. I think he's met with the Saints, too. Man, they must get such great dinners out of that.

I mean, you go out to dinner on an NFL owner's night. Especially in New Orleans. Oh, amazing. So let's do some breakouts here. We got a lot of running back breakouts. Dave gave Tony Pollard. Heath gave Javante Williams. Another one of yours, Heath, is DeAndre Swift.

And Javante Williams, by the way, is RB6 in NFC ADP, eighth overall. DeAndre Swift is RB10 in NFC ADP. I'm just using the same ADP I used yesterday, which was after the Tyreek Hill trade, which isn't relevant for most of the guys here, but just seemed like a good time to see how drafts shook out. But anyway, DeAndre Swift, RB10, 15th overall. Who do you like better, Swift or Javante Williams? I have these guys in the projection separated by 0.26 fantasy points for the entire season. Wow.

So assuming that if Melvin goes back, then I would like Swift better. Right now i have williams slightly higher i do think like talking about guys that are an injury concern if you're going to factor that in at all swift is a slightly bigger injury concern than javante williams because he's had a couple injuries in his first two years in the league but i do think this is another situation it's not because of a quarterback like russell wilson but this is another situation where this offense could be better than it was last year I expect it to be a little bit more creative than it was

last year the offensive line could be amongst the best in the NFL and I was it was it Dan Campbell's very first game calling plays that Swift had 33 carries 430 yards I have little doubt they are going to establish the run i believe 266 yards rushing in his first two games with campbell calling plays and i still believe that deandre swift is amongst the four or five most talented running backs in football he's got to stay healthy for a full season we know what he can do in the passing game and he could have a great setup in front of him i think he's an excellent matchup-proof running back, meaning that when he is healthy,

and honestly, I think that's the only negative on DeAndre Swift, is can he stay healthy for big chunks of the year? Because if the Lions are winning, I know that sounds crazy, but they might actually win some games. He'll get the ball a lot behind that offensive line. He talked about it. He's also great in the passing game. And when the Lions are trailing, hello, it's going to be a lot.

He's going to get a lot of targets, and he'll do well with them. I would feel better taking DeAndre Swift in round one if I knew who the backup would be and if I liked that backup, meaning that I would go and get DeAndre Swift, and then I would protect that investment with a pick in the double digit rounds. It might be Jamal Williams. It could be as simple as that. Williams has been around a long time. He knows what he's doing out there.

I really like the way that Craig Reynolds ran last year, and I wonder if the Lions feel the same way. And so if we get to training camp and I get comfortable with who that second running back is in Detroit I won't have any fear about taking DeAndre Swift I'll throw out the injury concerns because I know I can get that other guy I'd have to prioritize him take him a little bit earlier than what his ADP would be but I would actually these words are going to sound funny I would invest in the Detroit Lions backfield I you know I this might be another team like I'm just going to like all of the bad teams but this i don't know what their over under for win total is this is another team i think's probably going over their win total they've got i mean obviously they were a last

place team so they have a last place schedule and um they get to play washington and jacksonville and seattle and both the new york teams in carolina. They play none of the AFC West teams, and they play only Seattle from the NFC West. And that goes for every team in the NFC North. So, yeah, pretty decent schedule for them. I don't know if they play an AFC North team either. What's their AFC division? They play the AFC East and Jacksonville.

Those are the only AFC teams they play. Okay. So let's talk about two more running backs here, and then we'll move on to quarterbacks and wide receivers. Michael Carter and Devin Singletary are two of Dave's breakouts. Singletary in his last five games was the number three running back in PPR. Zach Moss played in three of those five games, but had a very small role. Devin Singletary was on pace

for 272 carries and 48 catches and about 1,600 or so total yards. And by the way, that included a game where he only had four carries against the Bucs. If you remember, teams just, we're just not even going to bother. But he was getting a pretty steady diet of carries. And then in the playoffs

he had a great game against the Patriots and kind of a bleh game against the Chiefs, which was a boring game anyway, and nobody really watched. So Singletary and Michael Carter. Now, Dave, in NFC ADP, Michael Carter is RB 24 right now, 56th overall. Devin Singletary is RB 33, 93rd overall.

That is a crazy gap, almost 40 picks between the two. Do you think Michael Carter is that much better than Devin Singletary? No, I would rather draft Singletary than Carter at this point. I don't understand the rationale behind that. Maybe they think that the Bills are going to get Brees Hall or something. And that would obviously anything that they do in the draft is going to put a damper on Devin Singletary. But I've thought for the last two years that the Bills were going to go and get a running back in the draft, and they didn't really do it.

They didn't do it. And so Singletary got that opportunity last year. You talked about Adam in his last seven games, five regular season, two playoff games, 17.7 touches per game, 88.1 total yards per game, nine touchdowns in his last seven games. McDermott has been outspoken about Devin Singletary all offseason long. I think he can, his career highs, I think he can beat these numbers if given the opportunity. 1,098 total yards, so call it 1,100, eight total touchdowns. If he's the main guy in buffalo he's blowing away those numbers there's no way he's going to be uh in the 90s for adp on draft day by the time we get to august

if the bills do not add another running back to their crew yeah i think you have to get through probably round four before you feel great about devon singletary round three you start feeling really good but if they can get through the first four picks without taking a running back, then I'll feel... But I do think that's what it is. People are just, I think, assuming that the Bills are not going to go into the year with Devin Singletary as their lead running back. And they're still...

And I haven't heard any smoke in this direction. But if I was Melvin Gordon's agent, that's the team I'd be trying to get involved in the process. That's a good point. Yeah, I think what was surprising to me with Devin Singletary, you look at those last seven games, as Dave said, here were his,

where his rushing touchdowns came from 16 yards, two, six, four, one. And then in the playoffs, three, 16,

one, he was a goal line back. You know, and that was something that I said this a lot, they gave that opportunity to Frank Gore a few years ago, and he just stunk. They haven't had, people thought, oh well, Josh Allen scores all

the rushing touchdowns. They've given other guys opportunities, the guys just never really took advantage of it. Devin Singletary finally did, but I suppose that could be one thing that could go wrong, that maybe that evens out and he won't get that same type of ratio of short yardage touchdowns that Allen would steal some of those. I do think that McDermott winning the power alleged, I should say alleged,

alleged power struggle with Brian Dable is a good sign for whoever the lead running back is in Buffalo. I think McDermott wants to run more than they did. Dave, what excites you about Michael Carter? I love the talent more than anything else, and that's probably where I would stand on Carter is that I just think that he's a good running back, physical running back for his size, good hands out of the backfield.

I'm a little bit worried about just how many targets per game he's going to get. Wilson targeted his running backs about five times per game last year. He even went back to his seniors last year at Utah. He averaged 4.3 targets per game to his running backs at Utah. So not exactly somebody that leans on those running backs. But there were three games last year where Carter played at least 70% of the snaps. He had at least 13 PPR points in each of those three. Two of them were these high catch games where Wilson didn't play. I'm wondering if that's something that could be coached up into the Jets. But the other reason why I like Carter is because I think he's their best running back.

And I think you want to talk about offensive lines. We talked about it with Detroit. I think the Jets are headed in that direction. They've got two first-round picks. They could easily spend one of those two picks on an offensive tackle. They've already added Laken Tomlinson, stole him from the 49ers. They've got Becton when he's healthy at left tackle. That guy's a beast. They are down on Becton, though. It seems that way.

Well, they've got to get him healthy. That's all they've got to do. I hope so. But even without that, you're right, Dave. They've done a lot to improve that way. Well, they've got to get them healthy. That's all they've got to do. I hope so. But even without that, you're right, Dave. They've done a lot to improve that line. If they don't like Becton, then they're for sure taking at least one tackle with their two first-round picks.

And I will still like their offense. Okay, so maybe they draft a tackle. Maybe they put them at left tackle and they move Becton to right tackle. It's not out of the realm of possibility. That's still a really good offensive line. carter's a good explosive running back the one question i had about carter coming into last year i don't feel like i've had answered yet and that was i didn't know that if it would actually be a feature back and they gave him about a three-week stretch

as a feature back and he got hurt um so he i think his career high in college is 198 touches over a season. Last year he had 180 some 14 games. I just don't know that he has massive upside on an offense that even if they're improved is going to be, I think well below average if he's not a 17, 18 touch a game guy. So just to wrap it up, Heath, do you also like Singletary ahead of Michael Carter? Not, no, I do not. Oh, you like Carter better?

Yes. Okay. Do you guys like Michael Carter or Miles Sanders? Carter. I will take Carter over him. I go Carter, Sanders, Singletary. Singletary, Carter, Sanders for me. Do you like Michael Carter

or commercial breaks? Commercial breaks, for sure. I'll take Carter. I don't want to take a commercial break. Everybody likes commercial breaks. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. We got a couple of quarterback breakouts for you. Heath's going with Justin Fields.

He is not getting a lot of respect in these NFC drafts. He's QB 20. Holy cow. He's behind Lance. He's behind Lawrence. He's behind Tua. I don't think he's behind Mac Jones. In terms of young

quarterbacks, I was surprised. Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence, Matt Ryan going ahead of Justin Fields. So that surprised me, Heath. But yeah, make the case for Justin Fields. I think that we didn't necessarily see it in the numbers last year, but he is a very accurate passer who also is one of the fastest tracks in the NFL. He's going to have an offense that's more complimentary to his skill set

going into this year, because it'd be hard to design one that was less complimentary than the one they ran last year. And I am still hopeful that they are going to really give him some help in the receiving core over the next month or two, whether it be via one of these free agents, it's still sitting out there, or maybe even there's some way they could trade up and get one of his former teammates to come join him in Chicago. By the way, I'm just now realizing that Dave did not have a quarterback breakout. I thought he had Joe Burrow, but that was actually a peek at Heath's bus lists. I thought it was Dave's breakout list. So I was getting ready to talk about Burrow, but why don't we save that for the bus show? Yeah. Yeah. So let's talk about Fields.

Dave, who's your favorite year two quarterback? Who's the highest ranked? I think I'm leaning toward Lawrence just because I expect that offense. I feel more comfortable trusting Doug Peterson and the direction of that offense than I do Justin Fields in the direction of the Chicago offense. I love the talent, too, and there's no question that Justin Fields in the direction of the Chicago offense. I love the talent, too. And there's no question that Justin Fields has more upside because of his rushing ability. But I think he's also got more downside.

When you're talking about late round picks at quarterback, you just want a second quarterback who could potentially be a top 10 guy in fantasy. Both of them can be Lawrence and Fields. I just think I like Lawrence's floor a little bit more than Fields. Look at Fields' last four games, four healthy games. We'll remove the Baltimore game, but it is worth mentioning he was not great in limited action there, but yeah, whatever. It's a half. 27 points against the 49ers, 20 points at Pittsburgh, 22 points at Green Bay, 19 points against Minnesota. This is six points per passing touchdown leagues.

And he only threw five touchdowns in those four games, and he only rushed for one. But he had 103 yards, 45 yards, 74 yards, and 35 yards rushing. He probably didn't really even play all that well, maybe for a rookie. And we saw that Monday night game against Pittsburgh in the fourth quarter. It was probably the best moment of his season. But he put up numbers. He put up pretty solid fantasy numbers.

It's encouraging. Who has the better weapons at this point? Fields or Lawrence? Lawrence. I would say Lawrence. I think cumulatively what they've got in Jacksonville is better. Mooney might be the best overall

receiver. He is. I've got him ranked higher than Kirk. Evan Ingram is. Oh, stop. I like ETN. I think ETN helps him too. What do you think? So we say Lawrence. What about you, Heath? I don't have any reason to believe that ETN is a better running back than David Montgomery.

No, as a weapon in the passing game. I don't think that there's, I don't have any reason to believe that he's going to be better in the passing game than David Montgomery. Oh, okay. Okay. I mean, he's not played in the NFL and he's coming off of a foot injury. We'll see. Okay. It's fair.

Heath is always fair. So that's it. That's our quarterback breakout list. Let's go to the wide receiver breakouts. Dave, you got a lot of them here. Kadarius to Cortland Sutton. Cortland's 85th overall in NFC right now. Wide receiver 36.

I know, another one that's just crazy. I think at this time of year even with nfc how many drafts have there been since that that we're looking at like one or two drafts can really impact things i think yeah i'll go ahead and i'll also look at where he went in the draft that we did a few weeks ago yeah he went higher went higher than that. He went in round five, I believe. No, he went in round six. Remember, he was in that group. Darnell Mooney, Marquise Brown,

Cortland Sutton, Mike Williams, Tahith. So... And that's where I think he belongs. Well, here are the wide receivers that went ahead of him in round five. Michael Pittman, Jerry Judy, Michael Pittman, Alan Robinson,

what Pittman, Elijah, Elijah like that. And there's first time listeners. They're probably thinking, why is he saying Michael Pittman's name wrong? Michael Pittman, Alan Robinson,

Elijah Moore, Tyler Lockett, Devante Smith. I feel like, I feel like I'd take Sutton over all of them. Yeah, I don't like... I've got Sutton as a high-end number three wide

receiver in the Marquise Brown, Mike Williams range. So where is that? He's 28. Brown's 26. Williams is 24. What about Allen Robinson, Elijah Moore, Devontae Smith? I prefer Sutton to those guys.

Same. So I'm not crazy. The case is pretty easy to make. So why don't we talk about some other players here? Kadarius Toney, Russell Gage, Allen Lazard their adps on nfc are fairly similar wide receiver 40 for tony 49 for gage 53 for lazard and i think at that point you might as well just take your favorite guy so how would you rank tony gage lazard i think i have it ranked i could double i'll double check after i say this lazard's going to be last of the three.

I believe I've got, I think it's Tony Gage Lazard. Okay. What numbers were they? Wide receiver, what and what? 40, 49, and 53. Tony Gage Lazard. I might be the low guy in all these guys. Yeah.

Tony's 40th for me. And I think he's got the most upside in a ppr format we get we got that taste of him last year and i trust that brian dable would utilize him in a similar way um that that's really where it's coming from is that talented wide receiver i don't think he's got bad hands i think that the play caller is a huge improvement in new york i'm assuming the giants are going to do everything they possibly can to better protect daniel jones and that'll lead to some good numbers to tony for however long he's healthy so he's a dark throw in that in that round eight nine range and this is assuming the packers are taking a wide receiver in the first round

right i mean if they don't then alan lazard's got to be first on this list right it's funny how we approach that. It's case by case. The thing I think is so interesting with Tony and Shepard and Galladay and Slayton and Barkley, I 100% agree that there's a major upgrade in terms of play calling, in terms of personnel, like the Giants, coaching staff, front office, everything got much better. Which of these guys do those guys like? Because we know that when Sterling Shepard's on the field, that's Daniel Jones' guy.

So what I can tell you is I was actually listening to our buddy Dan Schneier's podcast. He has a Giants podcast. And at the Combine, they basically were asked, you know, are you trading this guy? Are you trading this guy? And one of the players that they said were not trading was Kadarius Tony. I don't know what that means, but just if that information is useful to you at all, they seem to give him a compliment. Do we think Tony will play outside with Shepard in the slot?

I think they mix and match. In fact, I would say that Tony would play more outside than in the slot. Where do you have Shepard in your rankings? Behind him. Okay, because I've got Shepard like 35th right now. I think he's good for 10 PPR points per game. That's how you draft Sterling Shepard, which means that there isn't a lot of exciting upside with him.

I don't like the fact that he's gotten banged up over the last couple of years. When he plays, he's great for 10 PPR points, sometimes 16. I'm hoping that Tony can be more explosive than that. Did Tony have some injury problems in college, too? Oh, yeah. That's what I thought. I don't know.

Is Shepard a bigger injury risk than Tony? I don't think so. They're very different players because Shepard is a high catch guy. I've said this so many times. When he's on the field with Daniel Jones and he doesn't leave a game early with an injury, which happens a lot, he is getting something like six catches a game. He's a 90 to 100 catch guy. And that is valuable in PPR.

I think 10 is selling selling based on what he's done is a little low but maybe like 12 ppr points like that is a guy that you probably start in a three receiver plus flex ppr league but there's such little upside with sterling shepherd whereas cadarious tony was one of the most elusive players in football last year in terms of making guys miss his metrics were off the charts but they're just so different, the two of them. They also are at different points in their careers. So I guess, Dave, you're cool. The other thing is they have had an offense

that has averaged fewer than 210 passing yards per game two straight seasons. What convinces me that they're going to be, you know, better than, let's say, 25th in passing? They could be 32nd in passing this year. You know, they're awful. So putting any faith in Giants receivers is tough, I guess. But you have Tony's breakout, Dave.

I think it goes back to Dable and what he did in Buffalo. You know, Buffalo's offense wasn't what it is now. Once upon a time, Josh Allen was wayward and struggling behind a bad offensive line. And Dable worked with him and worked with him and focused on two or three things each offseason for him to get better at. I'm assuming that he's going to try and do the same thing this offseason with Daniel Jones. Going to try. Okay, and Lazard, yeah, Lazard's a guy that we probably, we shouldn't even rank him right now because we've got to see what the Packers do, but let's say the Packers draft one wide

receiver in the first round and I don't know all of their picks, but let's say they take one in the third round or fourth round, which is much less likely to have an impact as a rookie. If that's the case, if Lazard looks like he's the number two receiver, then how would you rank Tony, Gage, Lazard? I could see myself putting Lazard ahead of him.

I think he's already got the highest floor as it is, and that is even if the Packers add another wide receiver to the mix. This guy knows Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers trusts him. He's been a good red zone target for Rodgers. Certainly last year, eight touchdowns, that's got to mean something. There isn't a whole lot that Lazard has to do to achieve career highs, and he's going to be in position to see a career high in targets,

provided that he stays healthy there. He's got a good catch rate, 68.6% last year. And I think he's a big possession receiver for the Packers. And that means that volume should be headed his way if he's going to see a lot of playing time for them. Another guy I love to target in round 10 plus. For me, it's Gage, Tony, Lazard right now. But if they don't trade for anybody, that's more my, Tony, Lazard right now. But if they don't trade for anybody,

that's more my bigger concern than the rookie right now because I don't know how much Rodgers is going to trust whatever rookie comes in early in the year. If they take one receiver in the first three rounds and don't trade for someone, Lazard would be well ahead of these guys for me. If they take one receiver in the first three rounds? Uh-huh.

And don't try. Okay. When was the last time there have been two good Packers receivers? It's been Jordy Nelson, Devontae Adams. The Jordy years, maybe? Yeah, Nelson Adams. There's got to be one since then. I don't think so.

It's because Adams, it's just Adams, Adams, Adams. Right. I don't think they're going to, even if they draft somebody inams adams right i don't think they're gonna even if they draft somebody in the first round i don't think he's getting 33 of the targets like adams did right correct but if they do draft someone in the first round then he's gonna be in the top what in your rankings 36 36 come on dave live little. I'll probably have him and Lazard very close. If it's one receiver in the first round and Lazard, I'll probably have them very close. Lazard and who?

Whoever they take in the first round. Ah. Oh, man. I'm surprised by that. Because I would have thought you're talking about a potential top 24 guy. I think it is a potential top 24 guy. I think it's a potential. That doesn't mean you should draft him as a 24. If it's the right guy, it's a potential top 24 guy.

Sutton is my 24th receiver. I'm happily taking Sutton ahead of Alan Lazard, even if Lazard is the number one guy. No, I didn't mean that. I meant, would you take Sutton over Chris Alave if he's Packers first round pick? I'm taking Sutton over every rookie, I think. I can't imagine a scenario where there's a rookie receiver

in this class that I'm taking ahead of Sutton. All right. Let's go to Heath's breakout wide receivers. A.J. Brown, who is currently wide receiver 9 in NFC average draft position, and Michael Pittman, who is wide receiver 24. So A.J. Brown, yeah, I mean, you said the raw numbers just because he's missed time with injury he and it's not just that like i think he has number one overall wide receiver upside and he's i'm not sure if he's fully given us a top 12

season i don't think he's given us a top five season on a per game basis. And some of that is because he leaves early. Some of that is because he's missed games, but also he just hasn't quite had like he had the second, the last five or six games of 2019. And then he had a really great stretch. The last 12 games of 2020 last year was a disappointment. He hasn't had that full elite wide receiver

season, but I still think he has that in him. If he's not number nine wide receiver, I love that. I've got him fifth right now. So can absolutely break out from where he's been and where he's being drafted. 8.1 targets per game for AJ Brown last year. I mean, that's where you start with the elite tier wide receivers in fantasy. Are they getting at least eight targets per game? Are they making plays after the catch? Brown does a ton of that. I love the fact that we can say that he got more than eight targets per game last year

because when you think about the Titans, you know that they love to run the football. And you think, well, there's just not going to be enough opportunities for A.J. Brown. Well, there's some proof that there are going to be plenty of opportunities for A.J. Brown. I think that, you know, for those of you who are dedicated listeners, you may remember me saying this, but it's worth repeating. One of the things that went wrong for A.J. Brown was he didn't have, in 2021, the same yards after catch per catch. And that's probably one or two plays a year

where he breaks a tackle and runs 40 or 50 or whatever extra yards. And I guess they just didn't happen as frequently. His yards after catch per catch in three seasons was 8.9 as a rookie, 6.2, and 3.9. He was not fully healthy last year. I don't know if he was at any point. He only broke. So,

so pro football reference, these stats are, I don't know how much I trust them and that's not a knock on pro football reference, but they're subjective. It's broken tackle, broken tackles. I mean,

there are different ways to measure that, but he broke eight in 2019, 13 in 2020 and only two last year. So that's a big part of his game, breaking tackles and making plays after the catch. He didn't quite do it. And he was still very good. By the way, 2020, he was number five per game in non-PPR, number seven

per game in full PPR. All right, Michael Pittman. So I asked you on FFT and 5Heath, did you have Pittman on your breakout list before the Matt Ryan trade? So I'll ask you again. Did you you have Pittman on your breakout list before the Matt Ryan trade? So I'll ask you again. Did you have Michael Pittman on your breakout list before that trade? To answer honestly, I did not have a breakout list before that trade.

But I would not have put him on the list as readily with Carson Wentz as I would with Matt Ryan. I think Ryan will be better for Pittman. I can't believe the Colts have done so little to improve their receiving core. I think his target share could even go up or his total targets could because the Colts have a little more confidence throwing the ball with Ryan in their center than they did with Wentz. The pass volume could be a little bit higher as well. And then we're talking about a guy who's just now entering his third year in the NFL.

It just had 1,082 yards and six touchdowns in year two. I don't think we've seen the ceiling yet. What is the ceiling? Can he be a stud or just some guy kind of in the Allen Robinson mold who is just going to be great for fantasy because of the targets? Man, you hate Allen Robinson. I think he could be a low-end top 12 wide receiver is the upside. So yes, the Alan Robinson range, the Robert Woods range.

Right. Those guys who aren't quite elite in Adam's eyes but can still win you your league if they're drafted as wide receiver 24 and finish as wide receiver 12. Does Jonathan Taylor have to miss time in order for Pittman to hit that top 12 range? I don't think so. I think maybe it's more about does the Colts defense have to fall back

just a little bit? What did they rank in pass attempts last year? Very low, I believe. It is very hard for a team bottom five in pass attempts to have a top 12 receiver. They had 72 fewer attempts than league median. Okay, it's something to keep in mind. But the year before, with Phillip Rivers,

they threw 31 more passes in one fewer game. Right. They didn't unleash Taylor. I do think you should expect them to throw more passes than they did last year. Almost certainly. They only had the sixth fewest pass attempts. They had one more than Cleveland, who had the fifth fewest pass attempts. And the two years prior, they had run more plays than the league median.

Last year, they were slower than the league median. So I would expect them to run more plays. I would median last year they were slower than league median so i would i would expect them to run more plays i expect them to throw more passes and they brought in no one to compete with michael pitman for targets well done guys those are your early breakouts for 2022 we'll do early busts on thursday for dave and heath and shraggy b who didn't really contribute at all in fact i asked him to get our standings in the men's basketball in the March Madness pool, and he did not come through. I am Adam Azer.

Have a great day, everybody. We'll talk to you on Thursday. There's Shraggy. We'll talk to you on Thursday on Fantasy Football Today.