Fantasy Football Today - Early Breakouts: London! Pollard! Jeudy? (04/05 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: April 5, 2023

VOTE FOR US HERE (Fantasy Sports & Betting Category): https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/fantasy-and-sports-betting/ Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  We debate some 2023 breakouts: Christian Watson or Drake London (1:10)? Tony Pollard or Ken Walker (7:30)? Then we talk generally about drafting second year players (12:25). How risky is this strategy? What does recent history tell us? ... Revealing Heath's early breakouts with Justin Fields (22:15) as the big quarterback breakout. Running backs (26:55) include Pollard, Rachaad White and Bijan Robinson. Heath loves Garrett Wilson among others at wide receiver (33:40) and his breakout tight ends list (37:35) might be a bit more controversial ... Now moving on to Dave's breakouts (48:15), Cam Akers was excellent to finish 2022 and could pick up where he left off. Is Jerry Jeudy finally going to live us to his potential? Who else is Dave excited about? ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. All right, what's up, everybody? Welcome to an early look at breakouts. You can go to our website, cbssports.com slash fantasy, and you'll see articles on sleepers, breakouts, and busts this week. Heath is handling the breakouts article. Dave Richard is here. He's got the busts article coming out later as well.

I am Adam Azer and looking forward to this show, which, you know, a lot of times it's basically just draft guys going into their second year. We're going to test that theory a little bit, but there definitely will be a lot of times is basically just draft guys going into their second year. We're going to test that theory a little bit, but there definitely will be a lot of second-year running backs and wide receivers that we talk about, not so much the quarterbacks this year. Dave, hey, man.

Haven't heard from you in a while. What's up? What's up, dude? How you doing? Doing pretty well. Yeah. Great. All right, great.

Awesome. No one cares. Let's talk fans. no one cares about that um all right heath i got a couple of uh twitter polls based on some breakouts and one of them is two of your wide receiver breakouts and probably two of dave's because they're both your two guys who would you rather have on your fantasy team christian watson or drake london and i don't know if you guys saw the results. You see the results? I would.

I did not see results. There wasn't an option for that and I wasn't sure who I'd rather have. So I was unable to participate. Wow. So if you were. So if you were drafting and those two were on the board and you couldn't just click like a see results, you would just pass over both of them and not draft either one. I'd probably take Ken Walker or Tony Pollard.

That is the next poll. Dave, who would you vote for? Watson or London? Unlike Heath, I will stop at any Twitter poll and give four seconds of attention and click a button without see results being there. And the button that I clicked was Christian Watson. I think he's got more upside. I think he's got the better shot to be the number one receiver on his team. London might be the number one receiver in Atlanta, but we know that Kyle Pitts is there too.

And I love Watson's upside. And I'm not ready to say that Jordan Love is going to be a complete disaster at quarterback. So give me Christian Watson first. Okay. Now, so I'm going to, I do have an answer. I me christian watson first okay now so i'm gonna i do have an answer um i was just making a joke about no c results um but i i think it's it's interesting like i think quarterback situation is probably very similar uh it's two guys who probably aren't going to be great passers probably aren't going to be complete disasters. Kyle Pitts is a bigger threat to total targets than Romeo Dobbs is, I suppose. But we saw London earn a much bigger target share last year than we saw Watson earn, right?

And in terms of upside, one of these guys was a top 10 pick in the NFL draft. I have a hard time saying anybody has more upside than drake london from that class well i'm saying that yeah well you know look michael thomas ended up being the best wide receiver in his class devante adams maybe that was one of the best wide receiver classes ever so we don't want to get too strict in you know the first guy drafted has the most upside. There are reasons why Christian Watson fell to the second round. Well, yeah, but I don't think Watson showed us anything last year that should change. Eventually, it becomes obvious that a guy who was drafted in the third or fourth round ended up being the best wide receiver.

I don't think the difference between what Watson and London did last year as players would be enough to make up for their difference in draft capital the first year, I guess is what I was saying. What do you think, Dave? What about a guy that was drafted 34th overall, so just past round one, who's got size and speed that's really tough for defenses to deal with? That's Christian Watson. And I think that he's only going to get better. Here's what bothers me about Drake London. Ten games last year with Kyle Pitch.

You know how many times he had more than 15 PPR points in those ten games? Three. Anybody? Three. Lower. Two. Lower. No way.

One. Lower than two. One is the answer. Week two. Remember you had that big game in week two. And then we thought, Oh, this is it.

Drake London break on. Then the week after that, 14.4. And he did have a 14.8 game a little bit later on, but never over 15 with Kyle pits on the field. And I, I hearken back to a conversation that Heath had when I was going gaga over Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie in Buffalo. And he made the point about how, well, certainly Stefan Diggs is going to get his. Is there enough there for both of those other receivers to go and get their numbers? And he was right. There certainly wasn't enough. Neither one of them really got their numbers. And it's a different type of equation when you talk about the Falcons. I'm not convinced the Falcons are about to become a turn it loose passing offense.

And so if they're not going to throw it that much, is there enough there for two guys, Kyle Pitts and Drake London, to both have great statistical seasons? And it makes me a little bit nervous because i think pitts has a shot to be i think he's got a better shot to have a bigger season than london does yeah and i think that's the thing is like if you've already decided that kyle pitts is definitely better than drake london then that argument would make a lot more sense i i don't think we've seen enough evidence to know who the better option is between the two of them well i i would take a say just say they're similar

say they're similar right and they put up similar numbers well that could be a breakout season at tight end but a pretty ho-hum season at wide receiver I think that you know that it doesn't have to be that one of them is better than the other if they're both great players who are both drafted into the top 10 and they're on a you know low volume passing offense which has been the case in three of four seasons under Arthur Smith, whether it's two years of Tennessee, two years with Atlanta, only one year has he been on a team that threw the ball a lot. That would be the argument, you know, against London. It's just, you know, not enough volume. You know,

it reminds me a little bit of Marquise Brown. Never really broke out with the Ravens. Wasn't a bad player, but sharing with Mark Andrews on a team that doesn't put up big passing numbers. Also... But I didn't mention this, Heath. Drake London is crushing the Twitter poll. He's... People like...

Of the about 800 votes we have, I posted this just about an hour ago or so, Drake London, like, over 60% of the votes. Also, I want to go back to, are we sure that Michael Thomas was the best wide receiver from his draft? Yeah, I said it. Was he?

Who was in that class? Tyreek Hill. Oh, he even drafted even later than Michael Thomas. Also true. Yeah, both are great, obviously. But anyway, these two guys are on your breakout list, right? Both London and Watson. Yeah.

So it's not arguing against either one, really. It's just a matter of who would you rather have. Right now, the audience is saying they'd rather have Drake London, but these are players that maybe you can get in round five. Christian Watson went in round four in our draft a couple weeks ago. Drake London went in round five. Let's go to our next Twitter poll here. Who would you rather have on your fantasy team?

Ken Walker or Tony Pollard? As we continue the theme of breakout running backs, who would you rather have, Ken Walker or Tony Pollard? And right now, Ken Walker has 62.4% of the votes. We have 825 votes as we do this podcast. Heath, what side are you on Walker or Pollard? This question is going to be answered in about three and a half weeks, I think. But like, let's see how high the Cowboys draft a running back.

If you tell me that's Tony Pollard, Malik Davis, Donald Jones entering the year, then Tony Pollard is my answer. Assuming the Cowboys take a running back on the first couple of days of the NFL draft, then Ken Walker will be my answer. Dave? I agree 100%. It really comes down to who is Tony Pollard going to share with. If he's not sharing with anybody of major concern, then he's the answer.

As of now, he's the better pass catcher. And for what it's worth, he had the better stats last year for fantasy than Kenneth Walker. Better in PPR points per game. Slightly better in consistency. Definitely better in targets per game. And that was while he was sharing for the majority of the season with Ezekiel Elliott. Now, there's something to be said about Kenneth Walker taking a step forward in the second season, not hitting a rookie wall, offensive line being better, et cetera, et cetera. So it's not a big gap.

In fact, they could very easily be back to back in anybody's rankings. But as long as Pollard isn't sharing, I like his trajectory better. Would you consider taking both of them? Let's say it picks 12 and 13. Walker, Walker and Pollard. Yes. Okay. All right.

Well, those are two guys. Non-PPR league, hell yes. Oh, well. I've just not been prepared to argue things in the order that we're talking about them, so now I have to go back to the... I'm pretty sure that Christian Watson only had one game with 15 PPR fantasy points when Romeo Dobbs played. Might be true. Well, that's really only four games right at the end of the season and Dobbs actually wasn't even playing a full snapshot then of course right Lazard was and you are right about that Heath

and it was 16.6 fantasy points in the last game against Detroit now what am I going to say Heath he left week 16 that they also played six games together before Romeo Dobbs got hurt? Not really. I mean, Watson was barely playing in those games. He was not playing his full snap. Because he didn't. Okay. Well, he missed training camp and he missed the preseason.

Anyway, he got hurt in week 16 against Miami. He had 11 fantasy points in one half. Week 17 against Minnesota. Remember, I had forgotten about that game. Jamie reminded me. That was the game. It was the championship week. We didn't know, should we start Christian Watson? Is he going to play? It was a 4 o'clock game, as I recall. It was mayhem. He played.

He was a decoy. He did things that were... You really discredit Christian Watson way too much, Heath Cummings. You don't give him the credit he deserves. He did some amazing things last year. He did amazing things. He did some amazing things last year. He did amazing things. He did some very Gabe Davis things. I mean, I...

He scored a whole bunch of touchdowns and had some really huge plays in a small sample size. And he did it as a rookie. You know, Gabe Davis really did it. In the last eight games of the season, he was a top 10 wide receiver. Well, he did it at the same age that Gabe Davis did it. Davis just came into the league a lot younger. He did it as a rookie. It's all about opportunity.

Both of these guys got an opportunity and both of them did well with it. Now we know what happened when Gabe Davis got more of an opportunity last year. We'll see what Christian Watson does with his opportunity this year. Also, using 15-point cutoff and acknowledging that he had two games

within 0.6 points of 15 in the same stretch is just intentionally trolling Heath. It's something you would do now, but that's still three out of 10. It's not great. All right. Let's, uh,

let's give a shout out to Elliot Smilowitz. He won our bracket challenge on the back of the Yukon Huskies, and he is in the podcast league. Elliot, congratulations. Long-time listener. Welcome to the podcast league. Now, Elliot, you and the rest of the listeners have a job to do, and you only have maybe one day to do it.

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Rick Spielman, the former general manager of the Vikings, drafted Adrian Peterson, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson. He did that IRL. So now you'll find out who he's going to draft in his mock drafts. Obviously, the draft coming up in just a few weeks. With the First Pick, amazing podcast. Check it out. All right, I wanted to talk about just the idea, I guess, of loading up on second year players because that is a frequent breakout year. Makes sense. Oh, by the way, Heath, do we get to playfully make fun of you for having Bijan Robinson on your breakouts list? I've 100% had rookies in our breakout columns for the last eight years that I've worked here.

So if you would like to playfully make fun of it, it's fine. Yeah. But it's standard practice at CBS Sports. And I think it should be standard practice to make fun of it. No rookies can be breakouts, is your opinion. Well, I mean, technically every rookie is going to break out, right? No, a breakout is someone who has by the, by the very Adam Azar definition of the difference between a sleeper and a breakout, a rookie could absolutely be a great breakout candidate. What is a breakout Adam?

Oh, well, a sleeper wins you weeks, a breakout wins you leagues TM. Okay. So yes, I agree. It's, it's, I will make fun of you but you know i it's legit um anyway hold on hold on hold on could heath make the argument that bijan's rookie year will be his best year yeah that's a breakout yeah i mean it has been for saquon barkley right yeah uh do you want to just talk generally about this uh is there a point where you can project a little bit too much with second year players and go too crazy is it do you make it a priority to have these guys because your your list is both your lists are going to have a number of second year players at running back and wide receiver um talk about that philosophically, Dave. Yeah. I mean, there's always things

that we get excited about with second year players. When you're predicting a breakout, you're predicting that we're all going to see something that we've never seen before from a specific player. And so it's a lot easier to say, all right, a guy that was a rookie last year takes the step into second year. And maybe we should be a little bit more strict on how we just lay out that breakout sash on every single player. Like it's easy to make the case for Garrett Wilson. Now, number one receiver in New York, Aaron Rogers is his quarterback team should throw

a little bit more familiarity with the offense will help the learning curve for Aaron Rodgers. That's a breakout that's pretty easy to make. It's harder to make that same type of breakout case for Traylon Burks or John Dotson, or maybe even Christian Watson and Drake London. So maybe we should be a little more serious about how we label those breakout guys. But for now, we're talking about candidates to break out. Not guarantee that these guys are, you know, everything's going to go right for them. And when you take them, you're going to win your fantasy league. But keeping the idea in the back of your head that a breakout is going to win you your league

is probably something that should be the tiebreaker between a second year player that you feel okay about and a second year player that you are for sure like absolutely positive he's going to have a monster year like i think garrett wilson is going to help a lot of people win their fantasy leagues yeah i i think i'm more interested in the second slash third year wide receiver angle than at any other position i think running back's a pretty mixed bag i think tight end you may be better off looking at the third and fourth year options than the second year option. Quarterbacks, we can see them make a leap. There's just nobody you would want to make that bet on this year. So it's really, when you're talking about the second year for me, it's more about the wide receivers, especially with this class. I think I only gave you three second year wide receivers

for the show. My column's going to lead off talking about six or seven of them. You could, you could legitimately make a breakout case for a half dozen or more second year wide receivers. Yes. Now let's look at the second year wide receivers from last season. And maybe we even look at 2021 because it is also a mixed bag there because the top three and these guys were all picked with the first 11 picks in the NFL draft. Jamar Chase, Jalen Waddell, Devante Smith. Smith had a really interesting season because he didn't break out until Dallas Goddard got hurt. But you just wonder if he would have. I mean, he is such a good player. But Jamar Chase, Waddell, Devante Smith, those were obviously great picks no matter where you picked them. I mean, he dealt with the Chase injury, but he was amazing when he played.

Then the next three, this is not in order of ADP or anything, but the next three, this is in order of how they were drafted in the NFL draft. Kadarius, Tony, Rashad, Bateman, and Elijah Moore. I mean, they were definitely on breakout lists, right? So that's three good, three bad. Then you had, you know, oh, Amandra St. Brown was obviously a win. Rondell Moore. Rondell Moore was not a bad pick, you know, when he was healthy and playing that slot role.

Josh Palmer, Nico Collins, these were late-round picks. But let's say maybe four good ones. Chase Waddle, Devontae Smith, Amandra St. Brown, and three busts. Scudarius, Tony, Rashad Bateman, Elijah Moore, and the rest were kind of late-round picks. The year before, second-year wide receivers were Ruggs, Judy,

CeeDee Lamb, I don't think anybody cared about Jalen Rager, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Ayuk, T. Higgins, Michael Pittman, LaVisca Chenault, Chase Claypool, Gabe Davis, Darnell Mooney, some others. So I don't know. I guess Heath, I would say definitely some success stories there, but they're not all going to work out. Right. So, oh no, they won't all. And that's like, they've said, we're talking about

breakout candidates. If I talk about seven of these guys, if four of them are really good, I'd consider that successful. Um, if five are really good, then it was an awesome year. But I do think it not entirely because Jefferson kind of messes things up. And obviously, 2021 messes things up with rugs being first. But if you look at last year, it's it's the guys who were drafted to be really good who turned out to be really good. Right. And then Kadarius, Tony and rashad bateman are kind of interest or different different scenarios well yeah i mean i think they were first round picks but there's a difference between the the nfl chose the other three ahead of them so they're the fourth and fifth wide receiver drafted right but what's the difference between cadarious tony this time last year

and johan dotson right now or Traylon Burks right now? Jahan, well, Burks, nothing. It's a great comp. I think Burks was a better prospect than Tony coming out. Dotson played a lot more football and had a lot more success as a rookie than Tony did. Tony had basically one and a half good games as a rookie. Yeah. Elijah, I could say Elijah Moore then maybe would be comparison to John Dotson Elijah Moore had like I want to say like four or five I could look it up if you want the actual about a five five to six games I think Elijah Moore and yeah Dotson could be good all right well I don't mean to be too negative here but look you get you get some second year guys some

of them are going to work out some of them aren't aren't. But this is a breakout year for sure. And we'll talk about more of those players. And we do have some news items for you. And we'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate? Don't let your project become part of this statistic. A quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime, financial penalties, and keep you safe. Don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money.

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Quick news items here. We'll get back to the breakouts. Austin Eckler said, worst case scenario, he'll go back to the Chargers. He'll play out his final season of his contract, bet on himself, and become a free agent next season. I like it. I like it. You like it? Okay, good. Does that make you confident? Keep him in L.A. That's his best spot.

Okay. The Patriots are reportedly shopping Mac Jones. And Dalvin Cook had shoulder surgery. Remember, his shoulder always pops out of place, so this is hopefully going to fix that. As we talked about yesterday on Fantasy Football Today Dynasty, there is some talk, some rumors that as soon as that shoulder is healthy enough to pass a physical, that is when the Vikings will let Dalvin Cook go. Because they have to pay him more if they cut him when he can't pass a physical than they do if they cut him after he can pass a physical, that is when the Vikings will let Dalvin cook go because they have to pay him more. If they cut him when he can't pass a physical than they do, if they cut him after he can pass a physical.

And if you are looking for that show, it is an, a video only show it's on youtube.com slash fantasy football today. Go there, click the live tab. You'll see an archive of all of our shows that we did live and it's there. Heath is in the thumbnail. I don't know why Heath's the only one who gets to be in thumbnails these days.

Heath's show. It's his show, man. We could rotate the thumbnails of this show. We've done that in the past. Yeah. I've seen Dave's thumbnails. Does anybody really want to click on my face? Apparently, that is a thing. People want

to click on thumbnails with people in them. With us in them. Making goofy faces. I'm doing a goofy face. I just had this weird visual of thumbnails with people in them. Thumbnails? Like literal thumbnails?

Yeah. Yeah. Alright, so anyway, youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday for that. Like literal thumbnails. Yeah. Yeah. All right. So anyway, youtube.com slash fantasy football today for that. Back to the breakouts. You guys gave me a ton of breakouts and only one quarterback was on there

and it was Heath's breakouts. We'll start with Heath's and it was Justin Fields. Oh man, what could stop him from breaking out? What could... An injury. Be the first thing. that might be it i uh yeah i think he should be

the consensus breakout candidate at quarterback i felt bad that i after i thought about it that i didn't put trevor trevor lawrence on there as well because he should be right there in that group as well of guys who could be a lot better than they were last year it'll be easier for lawrence because he wasn't near as good last year as fields um but no i i think fields could make a leap to qb1 and my assumption my projection my expectation is that he's a top five quarterback this year which in itself would be a breakout you know it's so funny because i've been, how long have we been working together? Heath? Like eight years, eight years. Yeah. When he says it'll be easier for Lawrence because he wasn't as good as Justin Fields last year. I don't know if he's just stating fact or if he's ribbing me a little bit. I don't know. I feel like that was directed at me and I, I just,

you know, I, I just don't know. I'm just so confused sometimes with Heath. I mean, Fields was definitely a lot better in fantasy than Lawrence. There's certainly no question about that. But they both have that magic factor that we've seen with these young breakout quarterbacks. Justin Fields got DJ Moore. Trevor Lawrence hopefully gets prime Calvin Ridley. And those types of things, we saw it with Jalen Hurst and A.J. Brown. We saw it with Josh Allen and Stephon Diggs. We saw it with Andre Hopkins and Kyler Murray. There is nothing more helpful to a young quarterback developing as a passer than to get a wide receiver on his team that gets open all the time. Yeah, Dave, I don't really know what else to say about Justin Fields.

I mean, I guess we could just say, where would you draft him? I believe Heath has him ahead of Burrow. Is that accurate? Yeah. How about you, Dave? He's a spot behind Burrow for me, but I completely echo the sentiments. It's the rushing upside on top of him. Yeah, his efficiency as a passer last year, and I really need to say outside of the red zone, was awful.

Inside the red zone, he was tops in the NFL in completion rate and touchdown rate. A lot of people don't know that about him. I did a whole video on DJ Moore on YouTube. Check it out. If fields can improve outside of the red zone, then I like his chances to have better passing numbers this year and better passing efficiency overall.

And I still think he's going to run the dickens out of it when a play breaks down. And that's got to be baked into his profile as well. He does have QB one upside, but so too do Mahomes, Hurts, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow. Really close call for me between Burrow and Fields. Burrow better than Fields on a per-game basis last year. And so it's hard for me to really believe that Fields can take just a huge jump ahead of Burrow. I think it'll be close. And that's really it. The injury thing with Fields, yeah, it's a concern. But I bet you'll see Chicago's offensive line play better, just like you'll see Cincinnati's offensive line play better next year. If you think you can get fields after Burrow, wait for fields, draft fields in that round four or five range. If you think you've got to reach for fields, get them in round four ahead of Burrow. That's okay, too. I'm not going to fight

you on it. And I will say, I think I actually have Burrow projected for more points. It's just much, much easier for me to see fields putting together a QB one season than Burrow. Just last question real quick. We usually do our quarterback discussions centered around six point per pass and touchdown leagues. Dave in a four point per pass and touchdown league, would you take fields over? Yeah, I think fields belongs over there. And just to put it out there on audio, Burrow, 26.3 fantasy points per game last year. Fields, from week five on, 26.2. That's not my argument to take Burrow out of Fields.

That's just telling you how damn close it is between those two guys. Yeah, I think there's probably an even better sample than that um in the last nine games i think he averaged over 27 points per game but he also was on pace he was on pace for like 1600 rushing yards which would be you know the the record by a mile all right sorry uh enough on fields he's a he's a great breakout candidate the running backs you provided heath were tony pollard i think we can skip him. But let's talk about Rashad white. And then a little bit on Bijan Robinson as well.

I'll ask you if there's a scenario where Bijan Robinson would leave this list, like which team would draft him where he'd say, Oh no, he can't break out there. But I want you to answer that. And then we'll talk about Rashad white. Is there a team that drafts Bijan Robinson where you go?

Ooh, I hate it. There could be a team that could draft him. That John Robinson where you go, oh, I hate it? There could be a team that could draft him that I would say, oh, I hate it. There is not a team that could draft him that I would say, oh, no, he can't be a breakout candidate anymore. Now, obviously, I'm presuming the Indianapolis Colts are not going to draft B. John Robinson and pair him with Jonathan Taylor. I'm trying to work within the bounds of reality, but he could go to the worst team in the NFL, and I think he has a chance to still be a top 12 running back.

Okay. Dallas has been mentioned as a landing spot for B. John Robinson. I would be more likely to take Tony Pollard off the list than B. John Robinson. So you'd have B. John ranked ahead of Pollard, for example. Yes. I probably would too, if they were to make that move. What about if Cleveland pulled to Dallas and they've got Nick Chubb for like one more year or something like that, and then they move on from Chubb and then B. John's there. But for this year coming up, it's both of them in the backfield in Cleveland. Is that too untethered from reality for you? Well, if that happens, then Adams take that Deshaun Watson's the best value in fantasy drafts right now.

It's going to be untrue. It's all the talk we hear about them. But no, that would probably be the worst. I can't realistically imagine them taking him. I can't either, but I'm just saying. If they didn't trade or cut Nick Chubb, then yeah. Then I would probably have Chubb ranked ahead of Bijan and they'd both be between 13 and 24. So let me give you one more that I think fantasy managers might be squeamish about, but I'm not sure they should be. Bijan Robinson is the first round pick of

the Buffalo Bills. It'd be a top 12 running back for me. And I just think it would signal. Now, I don't think that makes any sense either because they just went and got Damian Harris, and they already have James Cook. But if they did that, yeah, I would assume that he's going to make both of those guys irrelevant. I agree. It's interesting, though, with him going to Dallas, which has been rumored and – not rumored, but people – there's a chance, right? Let's just say there's a chance. Pollard's on a one-year franchise deal right now. They could sign him to a bigger deal,

but right now it's just a one-year deal and they could let him walk. It's really hard. Okay, it's hard to say this out loud, but I think there's a case to be made that just on a per carry basis, Tony Pollard has been one of the best running backs in football since he's entered the league.

Guy's been incredible. I don't know. And then this is, you know, he's on your breakouts list's been incredible. I don't know. And then this is, you know, he's on your breakouts list too. But sure, Bijan Robinson's a much better prospect than Tony Pollard, but it'll be, I don't know. I don't know that you just take Pollard off the field if you draft Bijan Robinson

or you just make him a very small part of the offense. I would assume that Bijan would have Zeke's role from last year and they'd leave Pollard in his same role and Bijan and Zeke's role could still be a top 10 running back. With potential to overtake work from Pollard. Pollard was a top 10 running back. Right. Yeah, they might have two top 12

running backs in that case. Okay. Alright, so how about Rashad White? Rashad White, kind of a big dude, ran like a 4-4-8 40 at the Combine a couple years ago. Did not have a great year, but just such a terrible offense. And I think people are going to be a little afraid of anyone on the Bucs, but they said they wanted to be a third down back.

What do you think about Rashad White right now? A three down back. Not a third down back. A three down back. Big difference between those two things. I'm a little bit skeptical of Rashad White having that top 12 upside like Pollard does, but I do think he could be a top 15, top 20 guy and have a breakout season where he handles the ball 300 times.

The offense for the Bucs worries me a little bit, so I wouldn't want to go draft White too early. But I think in that same spot that we were taking, talking about taking the breakout wide receivers, um, that round four or five range and full PPR, I'd feel pretty good about it. Dave,

your thoughts on Rashad white, the bucks, by the way, just recently said they hate Rashad white. No, no, no way. They like Rashad white.

Sorry. Just kidding. It'd be weird if they said they hated him. Yeah, no, they like, it would also be refreshing. It would be a team giving said they hated him. They like Rashad White. It would also be refreshing. It would be a team giving some...

When do you think we should draft Rashad White? I think we should draft Rashad White. Let me see. In full PPR, non-PPR, half PPR, which league are we in today? We'll do full PPR, and I'll just tell you where he went. He went in round six.

He went just after Tyler Algier and Isaiah Pacheco. Perfect spot. That's where you should go. That could change if the Bucs go through the draft process and don't add anything at running back. But I do worry about how efficient he'll be or explosive he'll be in an offense that's going from Tom Brady, a quarterback, to Baker Mayfield, a quarterback. And Baker isn't exactly known as a guy that makes kings out of anybody that he throws the football to. It's a case to have Mike Evans as a bust and Chris Godwin in non-PPR as a bust. And I think Rashad White could follow suit and not be great, but he'll have an opportunity with some volume.

You're talking about a guy that could be a low end number two fantasy running back. And would you rather have Algier or Rashad White? White. As of now, Algier. Okay. Why Heath Algier? Or why Heath Rashad White?

I think he has a lot more receiving upside and I am more concerned about the Falcons adding someone like that's the team we didn't mention for Bijan, but I would not be in the least bit surprised if Arthur Smith wanted to go get him some Bijan Robinson and just run the ball 700 times next year. But if he doesn't, if they don't invest in running back in the NFL draft, anything significant, let's say a day one or two pick.

If neither team invests in running back, I still think there's a higher percentage of the touches for Rashad White because Cordero Patterson is still there. But who's going to be better with the touch? Okay. Who's going to be better with the touch? All right. All right.

I think in YPC leagues, I'd probably take Algier. Well, it's not just that. You're talking about – there's always a quote that stands out to me from Todd Bowles, who's the coach, but also defensive-minded coach for the Bucs. He said, last year, the Falcons have maybe the best run scheme in football. So it's an easy run game to buy into. Okay.

Other breakouts. Oh, wide receiver. Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Christian Watson. I don't want to just skip everything. Um, but we did talk about London and Watson. So I'll ask you a Garrett Wilson question. Um,

still on your list with no Aaron Rogers as of yet with Alan Lazard, with Nicole Hardman still on your breakout list. Cause he's gonna, he's gonna be, I think at latest at the latest around three pick at this point. Yeah. And I think around three is because he's gonna he's gonna be i think at latest at the latest around three pick at this point yeah and i think around three is where he's belonged i've gotten a little bit less excited just due to the drama and the reminder of how high maintenance their potential new quarterback is there's there's a lot of things that could go wrong with the with

the jets but i don't believe that if somehow this Rogers thing falls apart, that's going to mean that Zach Wilson's the starting quarterback. There's still multiple avenues for the Jets to go get a better quarterback than Zach Wilson, maybe starting with Ryan Tannehill, who their coaching staff has a little connection to, I believe. So that's kind of where I am. I think it's going to be better than Zach Wilson. I think it's probably going to be better than Mike White and Joe Flacco, but as long as it's as good as Mike White and Joe Flacco, Garrett Wilson's a top 12 wide receiver.

Do you remember what his PPR points per game was without Zach Wilson last year? I think it was 17.5 with like two weeks to go, but I don't know where it finished. You're way off. It was 17.3, but the number is huge, 17, and that's with Mike White, Joe Flacco, Chris Streveler. You know, Heath, this guy is great. He's a great route runner, awesome at making plays after the catch, willing to cross the field, catches the ball away from his

body. He's got great hands. He's got speed. He's got everything that you want at wide receiver, except he's not a Hulk. He's not Drake London in terms of size. And as long as he's playing with a competent quarterback, he's going to be a breakout candidate. If he's playing with a great quarterback, and I still think Aaron Rodgers is good enough to be called great, then he's got top 10 potential. So Garrett Wilson, this stat always surprises me. It might surprise you. He averaged more yards per target with Zach Wilson than he did with Mike White and Joe Flacco.

In the nine games that Zach Wilson and then partially Chris Streveler played, it was eight yards per target. In the eight games with Mike White and Flacco, it was 7.2 yards per target. So why were his numbers so much better? I mean, we always say because of Zach Wilson, Zach Wilson, Zach Wilson. I think it was primarily because in those games with Zach Wilson, the Jets threw 28.7 passes per game.

In the other games, they threw 45.8 passes per game. They didn't trust Zach Wilson to throw, it seems. But he still had good numbers when Zach Wilson played, you know, not every week. He was just incredible. And, you know, I kind of laughed at Dan Schneier for taking Garrett Wilson with the third pick of round two, 15th overall. But if he becomes the player that he might become, if he becomes a star, it might be a great pick. You know, he went ahead of A.J. Brown., it might be a great pick. He went ahead of A.J. Brown. He went ahead of Devontae Adams.

He went ahead of Amadra St. Brown. It's a little rich, but you could at least see a scenario where, hey, Dan was right. We were crazy. We were wrong. I think there's a real path to by October 15th of this year, Garrett Wilson is

the consensus number three wide receiver in Dynasty behind only Chase and Jefferson. Yeah. All right. We think he's a terrific player, and you definitely want to draft him. Hopefully, you don't have to take him in round two. Okay. I think let's go to your tight ends. Interesting list.

I mean, Kyle Pitts has a breakout tight end, and Pat Fryermuth as a breakout tight end. Honestly, this is not to discredit the rest of your list. To me, these are the two most interesting ones. I think they're fascinating. Talk about Pitts. I think we all have the same. There was nothing controversial about the first part of my breakout list, I think is a good way to put it.

Those guys, I don't even like Rashad White as much as a lot of people do. I expect Fryermuth to probably be the spiciest. There's still enough Pitts believers hanging on to that hope that he's still going to be ranked mostly at the top five, top six tight end by the time we get to August. I just think that there was a step forward taken by Pat Friermuth last season that was hidden by the fact that his very good fortune in the red zone in his rookie year turned into absolutely craptastic luck in his second year. And I would expect a more normal touchdown rate in year three. I think the fact that he earned 98 targets in 16 games, he absolutely has a chance to be the number two target on his own team. He was last year. He saw his yards per

catch and yards per target increased significantly last year. We saw them use him more down the field. He had a 5.3 a dot as a rookie was only valuable for fantasy because he scored seven touchdowns. Last year, that went up to 8.3. It was more of a normal tight end usage. I think you're looking at a 100 target guy who could score six or seven touchdowns pretty easy, probably ends up around 700 or 800 yards. So could he be the exception to the rule of you've got to be the top or second to the top in targets on a team at tight end? No, I think he was second on the team in targets last year.

I think he could be this year. Well, Dave, there were two exceptions this year. George Kittle and Evan Ingram were both top six tight ends, and they were not top five in targets. They were not top two in targets on their team. You have to project a big increase in ability to earn targets from George Pickens to think that Fryermuth's not going to be second on his team in targets. Or a downgrade in targets to Deontay Johnson, but I don't think that's happening. I can't make that case.

And I'm a huge fan of Pickens, and I know that many on the Steelers are as well. And that's why I have a hard time saying that Friar Muth is a great breakout tight end. But at the same time, he was sixth among tight ends in targets per game last year. And that was when he was sharing with Pickens and Johnson for a while. Chase Claypool was on that team. So there were others as well. So I can't, I can't just straight up say forget about Fryermuth,

but I wouldn't prioritize him in drafts. You keep the name in mind if you're waiting until the back half of the draft to take a tight end. Do you think that Pat Fryermuth needs Kenny Pickett to be good for him to have a breakout season, for Fryermuth to have a breakout season? Well, define good. Are we talking about Pickett having... League average quarterback. It'll help considering the other targets that

are on the team. So, yeah. I just want to say again, Fryer played one fewer game than George Pickens last year and had 14 more targets. So, who are you projecting for more targets? I think I project Pickens and Fryer for the same number of targets next year. Okay.

Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, if I were... I think I'm going to make the argument that most people listening might make. Because if I did a Twitter poll right now and just polled the public, who do you think is getting more targets? I feel like they'd pick Pickens. Oh, no, I'm certain that they would. So when I argue with you, a lot of times I'm trying to argue with you from the standpoint of this is what I think the general public is going to feel.

And I think the general public would feel like if the Steelers want to be better offensively, they should probably throw more to George Pickens and less to Pat Fryermuth. Not that Fryermuth's bad, but that Pickens can do things that Friermuth can't. Yeah, I think that usually, though, when they're making that argument, it's because a guy in the second half of the year showed, like Almonra St. Brown,

like many other wide receivers, showed an ability to earn targets that increased as the year went on. Pickens had two games all year with more than six targets. Three. They happen in three consecutive weeks, week three,

four and five. Yeah. He was a four to five target guy down the stretch. And I, I don't want to, I like picking button. He's going to be in the article as a potential breakout candidate because he does such great things when he does

earn targets that if he can improve that ability and earn more targets he could be spectacular but he has to do that first i don't think dave i don't know if you remember he wasn't he didn't play a lot he was never a guy who earned a lot of targets in college either. No, it's true. Fair point. Yeah, I agree. Overrated here. He was always the prospect that didn't get that ton of work in college but could still translate to be a very good pro.

And here's the other thing about it. I would agree that they could be close in targets. I don't think we're looking at a year where it's going to be George Pickens with 140 targets and Pat Fryermuth with 90 targets. I don't think we're looking at a year where it's going to be George Pickens with 140 targets and Pat Fryermuth with 90 targets. I think they'll be pretty close. And so the better value on draft day, it's going to be Fryermuth

because Pickens is going to go in that round six-ish range. Fryermuth won't sniff that ever. Fryermuth or Evan Ingram? Ingram. You want to talk about a guy who has a lot more increased target competition from last year, that's Evan Ingram? Ingram. You want to talk about a guy who has a lot more increased target competition from last year, that's Evan Ingram.

That's fair to say, but I still think Ingram is going to get picked at least a round ahead of Friar Muth. Ingram really showed us something first year in a new offense. I don't see his role completely going up into the ether. By the way, you know what? I think, here's a bold take the player that impacts the teammate that impacts pat fryermuth the most is tj tj watt their team is totally different when he plays they throw a lot more because they give up a lot

more points and the numbers just overall for the three players, Johnson, Friermuth, Pickens, after the bye when TJ Watt came back, I mean, the targets were way down for all of them. They threw six fewer times per game. They faced easier offenses, so that may have been why they gave up fewer points. But their defense is so much better when he's on the field.

And I think they'll be a lot more run heavy they'll try anyway with that bum i don't remember what happened that was so strange with friar moose season because after the buy you're you're right about the the offense but after the buy he had seven targets in the first game 12 in the next four six. And then he had a game where he played 56% of the snaps and didn't see a target. And then eight and six targets. He was averaging about six to seven targets a game in those, except for that one game where they just never threw him the ball. Well, he was on pace for 94 targets, which you said he'll get about 100.

So he was on pace for 94 targets in the last nine games of the year with TJ Watt. They went 7-2 in those games, and they threw 31 times per game. So it's certainly easy to see Frymuth getting you 100 targets. All right, question on Kyle Pitts. And when you say Kyle Pitts breakout, you know, what does that mean? Does that mean he finally fulfills the promise and becomes an absolute stud? Or just he has a really good year, he's like a fourth-round pick?

Yeah, I think the second one probably, but if he's a fourth-round pick, that means he's a top three or four tight end. I think it kind of is a breakout if he just did what he did his rookie year, but he scored a normal amount. Yeah, over 1,000 yards and what, five, six touchdowns? Yeah.

Yeah, that'd be good, right? But do you see league-winning potential for Pitts? I don't think it's likely that both London turns into a top-12 wide receiver and Pitts finishes as tight end one. But I could see Pitts as a top-five tight end and London as a top-12 wide receiver and Pitts finishes as tight end one. But I could see Pitts as a top five tight end and London as a top 12 wide receiver. Dave? Go ahead. Would you take

55 catches, 702 yards, three touchdowns? Gross. Go away. What if that was in 12 games? What if it wasn't in 17 games? Because he might miss some games. That's such a cool game to play.

You're going to give me stats that you're going to take away five games? I'm a jerk. Setting me up for failure there. Okay, so maybe I'll give you somebody else. Let's say he plays 17 games and he catches 86 passes for 914 yards and six

touchdowns. Yep. Yeah. Got a league winner? No. But it's a good pick. That was TJ Hawkinson last year, and he was fourth in PPR points per game. But based on where I think we're going to see Pitts get picked, that's the stat line you need to hope he crosses to.

He's got to get to that, which is basically what he said. He basically said he's got to get his yardage from his rookie year with some normal touchdown numbers. That's it. That's lower than that. Yeah, it's lower. Over 1,000 yards, six touchdowns, 75 catches, something like that. That's what you've got to hope for if you're taking Kyle Pitts as the third or fourth tight end off the board.

Well, we don't have a ton of time for Dave's breakouts and I apologize. Luckily there is some overlap, but we'll talk about guys like cam acres, Samaj P Ryan, Kenneth Gainwell, Jerry, Judy,

Nico Collins. We'll be right back with Dave's breakouts on fantasy football today. Dave, I've been a monster to you and left you little time. Oh, don't worry about it. I was a monster to you by playing that wicked game of here's some stats. Oh, wait, he played this many games and I'll send you some breakouts. Oh, wait, I'll do it two hours before the show.

Yeah, that's all right. I wasn't punishing you, but all right. So I want to talk about Cam Akers. Your breakout list you gave me was tony pollard cam acres samajay p ryan kenneth gainwell and basically every second year running back uh including khalil herbert who's a third year running back um but uh um cam acres all right does he pick up where he left off the last six games of the year he was a top four running back he was top six four running back.

He was top six per game. I know you're not going to protect him for that, but at least as a workhorse running back and kind of a must-start guy, does Cam Akers pick up where he left off? 17.7 PPR points per game in his last six games with the Rams. He got out of the doghouse with Sean McVay. And look, I know that the Rams, as a team, their defense isn't going to be as good.

Their offense, huge question marks. They don't have a lot of draft capital to try and improve their team this April. So I wonder if they just settle on starting the year with Cam Akers. And it's a completely different year than 12 months ago for Akers, where he was coming back from the Achilles. He didn't look explosive in camp. There was no great news about him.

It felt like he was going to be a bad fantasy pick, and he turned out to be one until those last six games. That might be what saves him and makes him a breakout candidate for this year. If he stays healthy and he looks like the guy that he was at the end of last season, he's going to have the best numbers of his career and he'll be a number two fantasy running back. All right. How about with that Rashad White, Tyler Algier, Isaiah Pacheco group? Is Cam Akers ahead or behind that group?

I actually have Akers ahead of those guys, but it's based on the hunch that he is the Rams' lead running back to start the year. And Heath, where do you fall in that group? I currently have him behind those guys. I will probably get more excited about him and the Rams offense outside of Cooper Cup if we get to training camp and Matthew Stafford's a full participant and everything seems like it's okay.

I think there's every bit as much risk with this Rams offense as there is with the Bucks offense, maybe even more. I did a very tedious and annoying exercise yesterday. Well, I never do any actual exercise, but a research exercise about running backs. I've made the point over and over that, you know, when you're looking for top 12 wide receivers, the offense matters. You don't find a lot of top 12 wide receivers on offenses that rank 20th or lower in scoring. But it's a little bit of a different story with running backs. It's been about three or four per year finishing top 12. Now, I'm not asking Cam Akers to finish top 12, but just to put this in perspective.

About three or four per year recently finishing top 12 on offenses that rank 20th or lower. I can say there's clarity that offense doesn't matter as much for running back as it does for wide receiver. So just keep that in mind, because I think people are going to use that against Rashad White. They're going to use that against Cam Akers, depending on how they view the Rams offense. It's just not as important at that position.

Not to say it's not important, but it's not as important. What I would be interested in is what those three or four running backs each year, what do they share in common? Are they all pass catchers? No. You know what? A lot of them were on the Bears. Jordan Howard did it twice.

David Montgomery. A lot of them, you know, I think had a lot of work. I can go back and look. But obviously workload's big. There was a year where Duke Johnson snuck in there and he did it on the back of a lot of catches. I don't have an answer for you right now. I don't know if there's a common thread,

but workload is obviously extremely important at the running back position. I would also think if you're using full season and not per game numbers, like it just so happened that every year three or four teams on bad offenses stay healthy for 17 games. Yeah, it's

possible. Yeah. Also, I will point out, actually, let me ask you this. Cam Akers, those last six games, top six running back per game, top four overall, all of that without Matthew Stafford and Cooper Cup.

Does that help hurt or not affect the argument for Cam Akers? Having Cooper Cup back should help the matchups for him on a play-to-play basis, potentially make him more efficient. But it hurts because it means that they might throw significantly more with Stafford compared to with Baker Mayfield. Okay. Samaj P.

Ryan, I think you want to get into that or. I can do it quickly. He's just getting, he has a chance to get a huge opportunity in Denver. This is the current coaching staff signed him. Sean Payton has been really excited talking about what Samaj P. Ryan can do. We've seen what Samaj P. Ryan can do when he's the only back in an offense. And with Javante Williams not necessarily being ready for the start of the season,

he's got a chance to really cement himself as a big part of what Denver does. And we know that even when, when Javante comes back, man, Javante is going to have to make just an insane amount of progress coming back from the ACL to really keep P Ryan in a limited role. But P Ryan could still be the passing downs back and still give some service to fantasy managers,

you know, as a mid season by week running back a number three running back, maybe even a low-end number two running back in full PPR. But there's a chance that Javante just doesn't play like himself the year coming off of an ACL, and that just opens the door for Pirine to have that one magical season where he's just awesome for fantasy. He's somebody I'm looking for in all my drafts. Would love to get him in that round seven to eight range.

I think that's where I'm going to end up with Piran. Kenneth Gainwell was on your breakouts list. I think, okay, so we're obviously playing the Rashad Penny's going to get hurt game. Why is everybody on? That's a pretty easy game to win, Adam. Yeah, you should play it. Why Gainwell over Boston Scott?

Because I think that Gainwell has a little bit more explosiveness to him. And in a PPR league, can catch a little bit more. Not a lot. He's not necessarily a locked-in target in this offense. They don't throw a ton to their running backs, or at least they haven't. But I think that he's somebody you could draft them both late, and you just wait for Rashad Penny to get hurt in October, and then

there's a chance where Gainwell can be helpful. And they've used Gainwell in short yardage situations just like they've used Boston Scott. So I'm totally happy to take that double digit round risk on Kenneth Gainwell. I had a little bit of an issue with him. Is he more of a sleeper than a breakout? He might be. He might not be the type of

guy that's going to help you win your league. But he'll help you win some weeks. And also you have to play the game of, well, are the Eagles going to draft another running back? Because we talked about some bad landing spots for Bijan Robinson. Oh, my gosh. If Philadelphia takes Bijan Robinson with the 10th overall pick, it changes all the math for the Philadelphia running backs.

It basically renders them all heroes. Because Bijan should have a monstrous list. I would love to see him. Okay. I would just one other thing I would say in response to your question to Dave like the answer of why Kenneth Gainwell and not Boston Scott could just be

the playoffs. We just saw them give 40 touches to Kenneth Gainwell and I think 15 to Boston Scott in the playoffs. Yeah. A lot of money off of Gainwell in the playoffs. Gainwell had 33 carries. A lot of the carries for Gainwell were garbage times.

They slaughtered the Giants and the 49ers. But he had the same amount of carries as Miles Sanders in the Super Bowl. They both had seven carries. He definitely was getting a lot more work than Boston Scott. In the regular season, they had the same amount of carries. Scott had one more. Gainwell had a lot more catches, though. Okay, let's see.

Back to Dave's breakouts here. Let's see. Let's talk about Jerry Judy. So when you do have these second-year guys, Watson and London, obviously Wilson and Olave, I can't make the case right now for Judy over them. But when you get to the next group of, I guess it's Watson and London, yeah, probably a gap between them and anyone else like Burks or Dotson or Jamison Williams or whatever.

What about Watson, London versus Jerry, Judy, Dave? How do you rank them? I currently have Judy ahead of them, but it's almost in the decision was made based on Judy being in the league a little bit longer, and I'm putting some serious hope in Russell Wilson managing

this iteration of the Broncos offense more than what we saw last year. And late last year is really where my optimism springs from from because Judy averaged over 20 PPR points per game in those final five games Sutton played in the last three of those five games and even in those games with Cortland Sutton back it was 17.6 PPR points per game for Judy I am hopeful that Jerry Judy will get the the biggest target share and the most opportunity to make plays after catch

and be the number one receiver for Denver in this Sean Payton offense. I think I need you guys to literally come over here and pour cold water on me because I am going to fall into the same trap. Like last year, this was me and Sutton. Now it's going to be me and Judy. I am just all about Jerry Judy right now. I see so many fall into the same trap. Like last year, this was me and Sutton. Now it's going to be me and Judy. I am just all about Jerry Judy right now.

I see so many things in the profile that I absolutely love. And two seasons ago, he was better than Cortland Sutton when they played together, you know, when they were on the field at the same time. But I didn't really care because I just felt like, okay, new quarterback, nothing from the prior regime mattered. And Sutton seemed like the guy that fit Russell Wilson. And I think they really tried to make that work the first four or five weeks and it just didn't work. And then Judy just dominated after that. Judy was so much better

than Sutton and he was great. And he was fifth among wide receivers with 50 or more targets. He had the fifth highest explosive catch rate. He had the seventh most yards per catch. Seventh most yards after catch per catch. So he makes plays after. He's just, I don't know. I mean, it's his fourth year, and he's kind of burned people before as a breakout candidate, but I think it's going to happen.

Myself included. I think it's going to happen. I think he's going to be really good. Definitely a post-hype sleeper, although if you continue to hype him up, then he can't be a post-hype sleeper. He would just be a continual hype sleeper. Good breakout candidate. My concerns are, like, we've talked plenty on this show about how Sean Payton's

going to bring in a run-heavy approach, how Sean Payton offense means more targets for the running backs, how Sean Payton offense has always been good for targets for the tight ends. Michael Thomas and Marcus Colston are kind of the two good wide receivers in Sean Payton offenses. And Marcus Colston, if he has a Marcus Colston season, I don't think that's a breakout for Jerry Judy. So there's a lot of question marks. How many targets are there? Is he going to dominate targets over Sutton and Tim Patrick who's back and apparently the Broncos love? The potential is there, but I do have him behind all those second year wide receivers.

Yeah. Brandon Cook's also good in Sean Payton's offense. He did have a year or two, didn't he? That's right. I missed that. Jimmy Graham was basically a wide receiver, right? Yeah, but he counts toward the tight end. Greg Dulcich has taken the Jimmy Graham targets.

I am concerned about the Tim Patrick thing. Maybe it's Dulcich. Because Jerry Judy was one of the, you know, he was like 75% in the slot two years ago, and I don't want that for him. I want him to move around. You know, I don't want him to be confined to the slot. I don't know if that will happen with Sutton, Patrick, and Judy,

but there are concerns. Also, he made so much of his fantasy production in that game against the Chiefs where they trailed like 24-0 or something and came back. But all right. I'm glad there's some Jerry Judy enthusiasm. I didn't get Jacob Gibbs on here because he'll definitely pump up Judy.

I know he loves Judy. I won't be the high guy on Judy when I get Jacob on here. Let's pick a couple more, Dave, and we'll wrap it up. And let's go with... Let's go with... Nico Collins.

Well, the trio of Isaiah Hodgins, Nico Collins, and KJ Osborne. Interesting trio there. Hodgins, Collins, Osborne. Again, more sleepery than breakout-y. You can make the case for Hodgins that he's got a shot to breakout based on how he finished last year and how he seems to be the only wide receiver for the giants. That isn't like a prototypical slot guy.

He's an outside receiver. And maybe there's something there that they can really build on in New York. Did they bring, they brought back Slayton, right? Yeah. Yeah. But he's,

he's more of a deep threat guy. Yes. He's an outside guy. You're right. He's more of a deep threat guy though. You're right. Yeah. Last five games, 15.2 fantasy points per game for Isaiah Hodgins.

I think that he could see a few more targets next year in New York and still be a key figure there and certainly a big guy in the red zone. So I think he's got some breakout potential. Is he going to be the guy that helps you win your league?

He's going to be a guy that helps you fill out your lineups. Might be a number three receiver that you can draft in round nine plus. Same thing potentially for KJ Osborne. If it ends up that he's the number two receiver in Minnesota, I do have a hard time believing that he can overtake Hawkinson for number two on the team team in targets, but I bet it's close between those two guys. And if that's the case, then I'd rather bet on the guy that I can draft later,

which is Osborne. Osborne could be a round 10 player. And Nico Collins is in that exact same range. I don't know who the best receiver will be in Houston. It's a team that still should throw a decent amount, but definitely getting an upgraded quarterback, whether it's Stroud or Bryce Young. And Nico Collins can...

I think he's just good enough to break away from tight coverage on break... You know, like a hitch route or a dig, something like that, where he can get open for that second and make a catch and use his physicality to fight for a few extra yards.

He might be number one in houston in in targets okay i just i feel like he was going to say something that he totally stopped no i was just waiting for you adam because i want to make sure that this is uh i can actually feel slighted but like your intuition coming in when you saw these lists of names for breakouts was make fun of the guy who picked a rookie not make fun of a guy who half his list are sleepers it's okay it's fine well you know it depends on your your definite based on my definition of breakouts yeah those guys are sleepers they win you weeks but some i would agree

breakouts when i put the list together, it's more like guys who can have a career year. Best year of their career. Okay. Well, that was a good show. Thank you, guys. Everybody made fun of everybody. I've already set myself up

to be made fun of for Jerry Judy when he gets off to a bad start. Thank you very much for watching and listening, everybody. Go vote, vote, vote, vote. SportsPodcastGroup.com, the fantasy and sports betting category. We need your help. We've only got one day left. Please help us out.

For Dave and Heath and Thomas, I'm Adam. We'll talk to you tomorrow with early busts on Fantasy Football Today.