Fantasy Football Today - Early Busts! (06/15 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 15, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Davante Adams? Deebo Samuel? Travis Etienne? We've got some big names on our busts list. Dan starts off with his bust case for Etienne (6:25) while Jamey talks about why Adams is going too high (12:30). Then we have an exciting announcement about our startup dynasty league (17:04)! ... News and notes (19:40) on DeAndre Hopkins and the Commanders passing game. Then it's back to the busts with Jamey discussing DK Metcalf and Deebo Samuel (27:05). Are we drafting some of the sophomore WRs ahead of them? We have some disagreements on Mike Williams as a bust (34:45) and Derrick Henry (39:15). And Jamey quickly reveals three more busts ... Dan provides bust cases for Aaron Jones (47:40), George Pickens (53:15), Rachaad White (57:10), a couple of quarterbacks (1:02:30) and Marquise Brown (1:12:00) ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Finishing out Sleepers, Breakouts, busts week with busts, not necessarily terrible players who are going to score 30 fantasy points all season and ruin your entire season, but players who are being overdrafted based on current average draft position and in some cases severely overdrafted. I'm Adam Azer here on this Thursday and joining us to talk about busts today. Coincidence? I'm not sure. Maybe maybe maybe not, Dan Schneier is here. What's up, Dan? What's going on, Adam?

I want to tell a quick story. I had a fun moment my first time ever in this industry last weekend on Sunday. I was golfing at a great course, Sandhill Crane, that's the name of the course, and at the end of my round, returning to clubs because I was visiting a friend and I was renting clubs, and I hear the guy who I'm returning to clubs to says, round, returning the clubs, because I was visiting a friend and I was renting clubs. And I hear the guy who I'm returning the clubs to says, hey, wait a second. That voice sounds familiar. And I confirmed it.

I was looking at the end. And when I looked at the sheet, I'm a big fan of the podcast. So first I'm like, okay, which podcast? Because obviously I have two different podcasts that I'm on. He's like fantasy football today. I'm a huge fan. I'm listening in. And I think you do a great job. So first time ever that happened to me where I got recognized in public for doing this podcast. Cool. When that

happens for the first time, shout out John and the people over there at San Jose, great course. And it was a fun moment and, and big fan of yours too, Jamie and Adam. So he was singing your praises. It was a good time. That's awesome. Sounds like, uh, Dan got a free round of golf and he has to make sure he's saying, no, I actually did that pro bono, free round paid everything but it was just cool cool to be recognized yeah that's awesome i thought you were gonna say hey i know that voice are you david samson so you do sound a lot like david have a similar voice but i guess you're just kind of just saying we're just like that east coast nasally nasally east coast voice where's the where's the most unique place you got recognized at? Well, Disney, um, uh, nowhere, nowhere, super unique. I just, I remember going to a giants game.

Oh, it was a Thursday. Uh, I think it was a Thursday night game, like week three or something against the lions or something like that. I don't know. And, uh, I was just talking, I was with my wife and I was just talking and someone recognized my voice. That's the weird thing is they don't recognize your face. They recognize your voice. So that's weird. How about you, Jamie? I have, I have two stories that I tell people the same thing about recognizing your voice, but, and also at Disney, um, I was, uh, when I think it was my middle son who's eight now, but I think when he was still pre potty training, I took him to the bathroom and in a stall, tiny stall, and was trying to like, hey, you got no move over here,

you know, trying to wipe his butt. And I come out of the bathroom and somebody, as I'm washing my hands, says, are you Jamie Heisenberg? And I was like, yeah. He goes, oh, I thought I recognized your voice. Yeah, you peeped in the bathroom again. Unbelievable. This is very awkward. He tried to shake my hand. I was like, yeah. He goes, I thought I recognized your voice. Yeah, you peeped in the bathroom again. Unbelievable.

This is very awkward. He tried to shake my hand. I was like, I'm good. I'll talk to you outside. And then the other time was I was in New York City with my cousin, Jesse, who's obviously a lot more famous than me. And we're about to get in a cab and somebody goes, hey, I know you. And Jesse goes, oh, thanks. I go, how do you know he's talking to you?

Right. Exactly. All, oh, thanks. I go, how do you know he's talking to you? Yeah, right. Exactly. All right. Good stuff. We're going to play a quick game here called Busts. Agree or disagree? I'm going to read Jamie's bust list to Dan and Dan's to Jamie and tell me agree or disagree. All right, Dan, agree or disagree?

Devante Adams as 12th overall wide receiver eight bust. Agree. DK Metcalf, 15th overall wide receiver, eight bust. Agree. DK Metcalf, 15th overall, or no, sorry. Number 15 wide receiver, 29th overall.

Agree or disagree. Agree. Debo Samuel, 15th overall would be the biggest bust. Yeah. Right. So by the way, fantasy pros ADP,

uh, right now, wide receivers go higher than running backs. For example, Aaron Jones, Rashad White is going 86th and he's RB27. George Pickens is going 12 picks

earlier than Rashad White and he's wide receiver 39. 12 spots later in the ranking. So just keep that in mind. Debo Samuel, wide receiver 17, 34th overall. Push for me. DeAndre Hopkins, basically the same, wide receiver 18. I will agree with Jamie on that.

Mike Williams, wide receiver 25. This one I don't agree on. Derrick Henry, running back eight, 25th overall. Don't agree. Reese Hall, RB11, 30th overall. There's such a boom. The ceiling and the floor here is so wide. I'm just going to push again.

Okay. Ken Walker, RB16, 53rd overall. Okay. Strong agree. Because RB16 is usually going earlier than 53rd overall. I like him at 53rd,. Okay. Strong agree. Because RB16 is usually going earlier than 53rd overall. It's like, I like him at 53rd, I think. I don't even know. But RB16, that's not 53rd in our drafts, in most drafts. George Kittle, tight end four, 60th overall.

Agree. All right. These are Dan's busts. Jamie, agree or disagree? Travis ETN, RB 14, 42nd overall. Disagree. George Pickens, wide receiver 39, 74th overall. Disagree.

Rashad White, RB 27, 86th overall. Disagree. Aaron Rodgers. Had to make a strong case today for all these guys. QB 16. Well, I mean, make a strong case today for all these guys. QB 16. Well, I mean, just the values are very good on these guys. QB 16, Aaron Rodgers. Again, disagree.

The value. RB 17, Aaron Jones. Disagree. QB 11, Dak Prescott. Disagree. Marquise Brown, 29. QB 11 Dak Prescott disagree Marquise Brown 29 wide receiver 29 I think that's exactly where I have him ranked

so disagree all right interesting all right so how about if his foot is a problem then that's going to be an easy agree his foot is always a problem yeah all right Dan why don't you give a bus case your favorite bust case we're starting this already okay favorite bust case is travis etn you've heard me talk about

travis etn a lot on this podcast i'll continue to so the good with etn is he's still an elite forced tackle mister i want to start with the good that was what he was in college he still is he had 15 almost 1500 yards last year five touchdown touchdowns. Um, the bad with Travis ETN is what he did last year when James Robinson was actually in the mix, he was a backend RB two. And when he wasn't in the mix, he was an RB one. Now the Jaguars went and tried to get Daryl Henderson. That didn't work last year. They got to Michael hasty. That didn't really work. Now they've got tank Bixby who they drafted with second day capital and draft who I like a lot. They also signed Darius Johnson, which has gone under the radar. So the competition thing is back.

Without the volume, I'm really not sure where ETN is going to be a consistent score because ETN is graded out as, according to Pro Football Focus, one of the worst receiving backs in the entire NFL last year. The big factor that were the drops. He also had five fumbles, including one that went through the end zone against the Giants to take away a score. The Reds, so in addition to not having much work at all in the passing game last year, being one of the worst receiving backs in the NFL last year, according to Pro Football Focus, the Jaguars also added Calvin Ridley. I don't think we're going to see this offense regress to Lawrence checking down more to the running backs or them featuring more running backs in the passing game. I think we're going to see him throw more to the receivers. Then we look at the red zone, which is another major flag to me. He converted just 20% of his goal line carries.

That was one of the worst marks in the entire NFL tank. Bigsby could take over that role during a chance. Good. I don't know, but I just don't see him being a better back in that regard. We also look at some weird red flags for Travis ETN, like last year in the divisional round. And this is a shout out to Ian Hart. It's because I saw him tweet about this in divisional round last year. He was out snapped by Jim Michael hasty.

That's just incredibly weird to me with ETN. And in the past, although he had 255 touches last year, that was actually a career or I'm sorry, the highest touches for a single running back for Doug Peterson, since he was a head coach dating all the way back to 2016. Only once has a running back gone over 200 touches with Doug Peterson outside of Travis Etienne's season last year. So I don't know if I see the same volume repeating for Etienne. I don't see anything changing in the passing game. If anything, I think it's going to get worse.

I think the red zone could go way down here considering how inefficient he was there. He has a fumbling issue, has a drop issue. I agree that he is a really fast runner who's actually pretty good at forcing missed tackles. But he's also not a great processing running back from what I've seen on film. And that's just like the cherry on top. But without the passing game work, without the red zone, I just don't know where the production is coming from here. Yeah, I gave this stat yesterday about him, at least in the red zone. Etienne was 2 of 10 inside the 5

yard line, scoring touchdowns. So Dan mentioned that 20%. You said goal line. I'm just using inside the 5 yard line, so that's bad. But in college, also, he converted on... He scored a touchdown on 51% of his carries inside the 5 yard line, and that was on 65 carries.

Tank Bigsby converted on 71%. So Bigsby might be better suited for that role. Jamie, you do not agree, though, that Travis Etienne should be considered a bust right now as RB 15, something like that? Sorry. I think he said 14. 14, yeah. Go ahead.

I am curious, though, because I just finished editing Dan's, or my story, but Dan's drafts in our pick-by-pick where he took Travis Etienne in round four. I took him at the end of round four. It was like the last pick of round four. It's great value. I'm fighting with him. I think it's going to,

I think he's going to actually end up settling somewhere in the round three range in most PPR leagues where it is a three receiver league. And so we'll, we'll sort of see. And to be honest, I'm getting more concerned about ETN where I had him as a top thing. I think I had him when I was just rereading my breakouts from March. I had him as a breakout candidate. I don't feel as strongly because I think Dan makes a lot of valid points. But the thing that I do like about ETN is really that I love this Jacksonville offense. And I think they're going to just produce a lot of points across the board. And so I think that will allow just incredible scoring for all their top tier talent.

Now, does that mean he's going to be the goal line option because Bigsby might be better? Does that mean he's going to be as involved in the passing game because of Calvin Ridley and all the weapons that they have? I think we'll find out, but you know, you talk about this Adam and you know, I was looking at your notes about Jameer Gibbs, how first round running backs tend to perform. And he is still a first round running back, despite the fact that he didn't play in his rookie campaign. I know a lot of it was tied to, you know, rookie production, but, um,, but I think this is going to be one of the better teams in the league. And typically when you get that from a player with his pedigree, he's going to be the one that dominates, carries,

and dominates touches, I should say. So whether he maxes out as one of the top-tier receiving backs, whether he maxes out as one of the top-tier touchdown producers, whether he fulfills, you know, the draft prospect that he was, you know, pegged at coming into the league and maybe urban Meyer overdrafting him that season. I still think there's just a lot to like about this scenario. So should he be a top 12 guy?

Maybe not. Maybe I haven't ranked a little bit too high. Should he be, you know, a guy that goes in early round three again, that's, that's probably debatable depending on how your draft goes, but I still think that he has the upside still to be the best running back on this team and to be still one of the better fantasy running backs. So probably still safe as a number two guy. Dan, are you taking Najee Harris or Lyons running back or Miles Sanders or Aaron Jones? Not Aaron Jones. You have him on the buses.

Are you taking any of those guys ahead of ETN? Yeah, so at least on the list I'm looking at on Fantasy Pros, I guess I was looking at their rankings more than the ADP. The guys that I would take that I think, and I think a case can be made, these guys will also be in some drafts drafted after him because Jamie's right. I think he's only going to go from that into that third round range.

So I would take Najee Harris over him. I would take Joe Mixon, who's going after him, over him. I would take Jamar Gibbs. I would take J.K. Dobbins over him personally. Yeah, I go that far down the list. Okay. All right, Jamie, make a bus case for someone. I mean, for me, it's Devante Adams. And this is something that sort of scared me a little bit when I looked at this. I just want to make sure I get the numbers right. So in the last 10 years, receivers that are 30 or older, 10 years, only 17 have averaged 15 PPR points per game. So 10 year span, 16, 17 guys have done that. Only three. Now Adams averaged over 19 PPR points per game. Only three were in that range. And that was

Brandon Marshall in 2015, Jordy Nelson in 2016, and Antonio Brown in 2018. And so you factor in the decline that's just natural for players this age. Now, granted, he's still playing at a very high level, as we saw last year, but it took 180 targets for him, I think, to produce at that level. And you add in the fact that it's now Jimmy Garoppolo with a foot injury. Assuming Garoppolo misses time, which we know that tends to be the case for him, and they don't add somebody, and you can still see a case for Carson Wentz or Teddy Bridgewater or Joe Flacco or just somebody that's competent as opposed to what's currently on their roster,

which I think would be right now a 37-year-old Brian Hoyer, that just makes it even more scary to say that Devontae Adams is still going to be Devontae Adams. We always fall into this trap, and I think we're all guilty of it in some way, shape, or form, of he's too good, he'll overcome that situation. Or he's too talented, he's done this before. Yes, he's talented and he's done it before, but he's also disgruntled with his current situation.

You know, and at what point does losing in maybe a couple of weeks of bad production just tend to snowball into an awful situation or a bad situation, making it even worse. So I'm not drafting him in round one. Uh, I I'm, I'm even getting a little bit concerned about drafting round two. So I'm probably just going to pass on Adams altogether. He's one of these players that I struggle with on a yearly basis. You know, there's a group of guys where it's almost like you have to rank them in a certain range because I think that's just the

expectation, but I'm just not going to draft him. And so for me, Devante Adams is somebody that I'm going to pass on definitely round one and probably pass on around two. Like I'll just pivot to running back or tight end or quarterback in that range when Devante Adams comes up on the board. Okay. So you think that this situation is considerably worse than last situation

last year's situation? Well, especially speaking to the Derek Carr fanboy, yes, I do. I think Jimmy Garoppolo is... The nice thing about Garoppolo is if he does stay healthy and he's fine, he picks up the system, which I think he has some understanding of

being that he's been with Josh McDaniels before, that there is still a chance for Adams to have his volume up because Jacoby Myers, Darren Waller, you can say it's a wash just in terms of what the target, you know, share will be, um, Hunter Renfro staying healthy, you know, Josh Jacobs, all those things, you know, kind of just sort of balancing stuff out. I think, you know, if Myers is, you know, stepping into that type of opportunity, um, the downfield

throws that are clearly going to be different. You know, it's just not, he's not the same quarterback. Roppel is not the same, doesn't throw the same success down the field. And so while he may get 100 catches for the fourth year in a row, I just don't know if we'll have the same number of touchdowns. And I do think that 180 targets

is probably a pipe dream again, even if he is still the number one guy. Yeah, because I was out on him last year in the same way. Yeah. The last two games of the season were with the backup quarterback and um he went for 34 points and 12 points in those two games obviously had that memorable god championship

week derrick carr gets benched and you're like what do i do with davante adams what i do with davante adams seven catches 153 yards and two touchdowns on 11 targets against the 49ers that was the other thing you know it's it was incredible, but all right. And he, he, he beat up the competition. He beat up the Broncos twice. You know,

I mean, he's, he's, he's, he's still very good. He's still going to give you quality production. But I think again, if you're drafting him in round one,

you're expecting not just 15 plus points per game. You're expecting 17, 18 plus points per game for the guys that he's being drafted on. And, and as you alluded to the wide receivers are pushed up. He's the eighth wide receiver in the first round. So that says a lot. So he's probably more of a round two pick.

And when I say I'm not drafting him, obviously he falls to the right spot. I'm going to draft him. That goes without saying. But just I think at this cost, it's just too high. Okay. So I guess let me follow up. Tony Pollard or Devonta Adams? I would take Pollard.

Dan? Pollard. How about Garrett Devonta Adams? I would take Pollard. Dan? Pollard. How about Garrett Wilson or Adams? Still Adams right now, but that might change. If Garoppolo's not ready for week one, Wilson all day. I'm going to go Garrett Wilson regardless, I think. Okay. I have a few very exciting things to promote.

First and foremost, you know, we got this startup dynasty league that the three of us are in, plus Heath, plus Thomas Schaefer, plus some people that you don't know. No Dave? No Dave. But that's good,

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you're going to have to pay a lot more than that to get in the league. But again, it is all for charity, all the benefits, St. Jude. And it's one time. You only have to pay that one time. And then, you know, come on in. You've got five days to bid on this. We're showing it to you on YouTube. If you need the link, it's on Twitter, right? follow me on Twitter, at Adam Azer. I tweeted it. So anyway, it's been out for a couple hours, basically. $565 so far. So really optimistic about what we can raise for charity, and really excited to play fantasy football in a startup dynasty league with one of you. So please bid on this. Also, we have a mailbag episode tomorrow. Me and Dan are rocking the mic.

Fantasy football. Sorry, Dan fantasy football. Yeah. We're hocking on the mic fantasy football at cbs.com or leave us an Apple podcast comment, five-star review with a question. And we'll read that.

I don't know if we'll get to it on tomorrow's mailbag, but we will get to it. And tonight, USA versus Mexico, Paramount+. Tune in, 10 p.m. Eastern. It's streaming live. This is huge. The U.S. has two wins from defending its title, and once again, Mexico stands in the way.

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News and notes. The Stefan Diggs situation is resolved. That's good. Everybody's very happy there now. Wonderful. The Patriots are reportedly optimistic about signing DeAndre Hopkins. Meanwhile, Juju Smith-Schuster is still dealing with a knee injury. Jamie, your take on this?

So, I mean, obviously it makes a lot of sense for the Patriots if they're able to get Hopkins, and I'm sure for the Titans as well. We've seen New England, which I think is what Hopkins is probably hoping for, you know, overpay for talent. They did so two years ago when they brought in Hunter Henry and Johnny Smith. So my guess is, you know, I don't know the exact salary cap numbers, but they probably will be aggressive in terms of trying to acquire his services. I think the thing that's very interesting, the second part of this is, you know, the report that Hopkins is going to wait until training camp because, you know,

maybe there's an injury that opens up and that changes things. You know, the Buffalo situation seemingly resolved with Stephon Diggs, but, you know, maybe there's a scenario there where they revisit Hopkins or Kansas City's not thrilled with, you know, Kadarius, Tony and Sky Moore, and they go back to that. But if he's going to wait till training camp and he still ends up going to one of these two teams, there's going to be a significant lack of rapport that's able to develop between him and his quarterback and knowing a new system. Now, Bill O'Brien, obviously he would know that. So that's probably a little bit more comfortable for him. But I mean, this is part of the reason why he's on a bus list for me, not having a team. I don't think I've ever done that before where I've said a free agent is a bust.

But, you know, based on the ADP in June, based on the fact that I'm concerned about these wide receivers, he's also 31, you know, so go back to the stat I gave you about Devante Adams. He's probably going to end up trending in the wrong direction. Yeah, I actually remember, Dan, I came on the Dynasty show a few weeks ago. We talked about the Andre Hopkins and I found enough examples of players who had great seasons at age 31 or even later and it's pretty much only great wide receivers you know um west welker was on there uh which is bodes well for a guy like keenan allen i'd say but you know like marvin harrison was great reggie wayne, Brandon Marshall, who Jamie mentioned earlier.

I've got some other names. Jordan Nelson, Antonio Brown, yep. Yeah, so I put Hopkins and Adams in that group, so I'm not really holding their age against them, except for Hopkins being a little bit banged up. Two years ago, he was very banged up. Last year was a little questionable because, I don't know, there was one report. I don't know how rep...

Anyway, there was a report that said the team wasn't happy that he didn't play the last two weeks, but that that was team tank. And, you know, maybe he just didn't want to play. I don't know, but, um, I could see that argument, but I don't know, Jamie, like 31 doesn't really bother me for these Devante Adams, surefire hall of famer, Deandre Hopkins, borderline, those types of players. I don't feel like they fall off the cliff at 31 necessarily. Well, again, it's not falling off a cliff. We're talking about just a very small sample size. Again, 10 years, only 17 guys to average 15-plus points per game.

And so, look, where Hopkins is starting to fall, he can still do that and have no issue because he is that talented a player. But then you're asking to do it with Mac Jones or Ryan Tannehill in offenses that don't necessarily enhance the wide receiver production, or at least they haven't. And so, you know, we're asking Mac Jones to take a significant leap and granted getting a, a, a offensive coordinator to begin with is, is, is a huge step. And we've seen Ryan Tannehill, certainly with AJ Brown, you know, put up good numbers, but you know, I, I think just when you start to put the whole picture together and where he may or may not fall.

And we just did a draft for our magazine. I think you got him in round five. That's great. That's the great time to take. I'm sorry. Me, I wish. I was hoping and praying that he was one pick after you. Yeah, I think he went right before me or something like that.

It was another Marin snipe. You know, you work with the guy and you don't know how to pronounce his name. Maroon. Yeah. When do I work with him? Marin. But, you know,

I think that that's fine, you know, and granted we are doing this with a lot more uncertainty than most people will be doing this in August. We're drafting right now. And, you know, best ball managers are going to either swing for the fences and hope that

Hopkins ends up in a great situation is still Hopkins, or they're going to, you know, draft him and, and, you know, best ball managers are going to either swing for the fences and hope that Hopkins ends up in a great situation and still Hopkins, or they're going to, you know, draft him and, and, you know, deal with the consequences. So I think just when you,

when you start to see the two teams that he's looking at his age and all those things put together for me, I'm out. Okay. So again, at the, at, at,

at the cost. Yeah. Wide receiver, 18 Deandre Hopkins, a couple more, a the cost. Yeah, wide receiver, 18, DeAndre Hopkins. A few more news items. Houston wide receiver John Mechie on track to return for training camp. Mechie missed the 2022 season with leukemia. He is fully recovered, and now he did suffer a hamstring injury earlier this year,

but on track to be ready for training camp. Kirk Cousins said that he's hoping there's an outside chance the Vikings bring back Dalvin Cook. Wouldn't that be something? And Zach Selby of commanders.com says that it looks like the tight ends will be heavily involved in the Washington passing game this season. Dan, do you buy that anyway? Because that's going to make a McLaur know great season and a Dotson breakout pretty difficult if the tight ends are very involved I do buy that because I look at what

happened when Mike Kafka came over from Kansas City to the Giants last year and how heavily involved the Titans were in that offense specifically in the red zone for the Giants and then overall with a lot of 12 personnel and I am a little bit concerned that the enemy is going to do something similar in Washington. It doesn't really make sense. You look at that roster and you're like, this team should be an 11 personnel a lot with three receivers on the field.

But if they feel like with Sam Howell, a younger quarterback, the best way to do this thing is the Daniel Jones it up and just run a lot of that under center play action, bootleg type stuff, roll out, throw the tight end here, leak tight end leaking there.

Like it might be the best way to move that offense with Sam Howell right now and have him run a little bit, get him on the edge, having him run a little bit, some design runs. I'll be curious to see how that offense looks overall with the enemy there. If you are going to compare it to the Giants, you could say the tight ends were very involved, but not in a meaningful way that took away from the wide receivers, which is a good thing. Most targets for a tight end on the Giants last year was 35 for Daniel Bellinger in 12 games. But red zone is really where I'm from. Yeah.

Yeah. Nobody had more than 76 targets. That was Barkley. All right. And then we'll take a break. And when we come back, we will talk about some more busts for the 2023 season. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. Did you know that across Ontario, utility damage happens 19 times a day? busts for the 2023 season. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. It's not just the law. It's a step to keep your team and community safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca

and avoid unnecessary damages to get the job done right. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. All right, let's get into some more busts here. We talked about Devante Adams for Jamie. We talked about DeAndre Hopkins. Two other wide receivers that are going in the same range. DK Metcalf as wide receiver 15. Deebo Samuel is wide

receiver 17. Is it a similar argument for both of them? Well, you tell me. DK Metcalf and Deebo Samuel. No, it's not a similar argument because I think for starting with Metcalf, there's a new player in the mix.

Jackson Smith and the Jigba is from a pedigree standpoint, you know, he's the most talented receiver that they've had because he's a first round pick, but it's very interesting to look at what's happened to Metcalf because we always expect this great production. But for three of the last four years, two years in a row, he's been outproduced by Tyler Lockett on a points per game basis. And even the year that he was better, it was by, you know, decimal points that, that Metcalf has been better. So he's already been outproduced by somebody on his own team. And now you're bringing in this, this uber talented player. We've never seen it. It may be in Seattle history. If there's somebody that knows offhand the best receiving core they've ever had, you know, just from a talent standpoint. But it's definitely the best since 2019, which has been when Metcalf's on the team. So I know Geno Smith was great last year, and this made Geno Smith much more attractive as a fantasy quarterback.

But I think somebody's going to lose. I think there's still going to be a run-heavy offense because they invested in the running back position as well. And so Metcalf losing targets, Metcalf losing production, already being outproduced by one guy on his team, and now having to split the pie up a little bit more, it just makes it tough to justify drafting him as early as he's going still as a top 20 receiver.

Talent-wise, he should be the best guy out there because he fits Adam's profile, a tall receiver. As a number one guy, the thing you like, he gives you crap about. Well, for a number one outside guy. Yes. But I guess my question was, are they similar cases because of target competition?

Because while the 49ers didn't add anyone, this will be a full season with Christian McCaffrey. Yes. So in that, in that regard, yes. But for me, the, the, the thing that also detracts from Debo is the fact that we're all just expecting Brock Purdy to roll out there and be fine after a significant elbow injury that, you know, may not have him ready for week one, which could lend itself to Trey Lance being the starter.

And we had these same concerns about, you know, the receiving core there in San Francisco last year. And we thought Lance was going to be the guy. So if you want to transition to Debo, we certainly can, but yes, his rushing production was not the same last year. And that was a big part of why he was so great in 2021. And so now you're taking away the rushing production. You're having a quarterback concerns. And again, it's about the value.

You know, Debo Samuel had some really good games with Brock Purdy. He had some really miserable games with Brock Purdy when everybody was on the field. And so Brandon Ayuk is going to have this big season. And George Kittle is still going to be a star. And McCaffrey is still one of the best at what he does as a pass catcher. It just doesn't all work. You know, there's just a math problem here where they don't all have the chance to be stars. And so for me, I'm out at Samuel at that cost.

I'm out at Metcalf at that cost. I'll let somebody else take and chase those receivers. I'll be looking at either other receivers or at Samuel at that cost. I'm out at Metcalf at that cost. I'll let somebody else take and chase those receivers. I'll be looking at either other receivers or other players at this point. And Dan, you agreed with these takes because you were very cordial today, basically agreeing with everything Jamie said. Jamie didn't agree with a single bust. Nothing cordial. I'm just going based on my ranking.

He happened to get the right bust for me. But I would say these two, it's less bust than it is for some of the other ones i agreed on it's more just like i don't like them at ep so i don't know if they're really like you know some of those other ones i'm like i feel i felt very bust strong with the bus calls on this one i guess for me would be more just adp if you're looking for a devil's advocate in the other side again i'm i lean toward where jamie's at with both the devil's advocate advocate for metcalf could just or for starting when with Metcalf could just be Gino Smith took such big strides as a downfield passer last year. And there's so few offenses in the NFL that stretch the field vertically

that he, that that does help him because he is a vertical receiver. My issue with Metcalf though, is like a schematic thing. He's the only true X receiver on that roster. I just do not see defenses rolling coverage towards Lockett or Jackson Smith and jig, but I think they're going to always roll coverage towards Metc or Jackson Smith and Jigba. I think

they're going to always roll coverage towards Metcalf because that's the guy you really have to worry about based on his size and based on the corners they have to match up against him in the NFL, which is very few. So then it's always really an advantageous situation for Gino to look to the slot or to look the other side with Lockett with more single coverage. And as far as Debo goes, again, maybe a devil's advocate could just be that Lance, how much are we overstating the drop-off between Brock Purdy and Trey Lance? Maybe, but ultimately, if that's the case and Lance is a better passer than we're giving him credit for, his skill set probably does mesh better with Brandon Ayuk and kind of that vertical and intermediate plane. So that also doesn't help Debo. So it's just hard for me to find the positive cases in either, either regard. I think it's easy to find the positive cases for both of them.

If the Seahawks did not draft Jackson Smith and Jigba Metcalf would be one of my favorite players. I actually don't think his ADP would have been, he's going to go in round three or four, no matter what, you know, cause he didn't play well enough last year to go any higher than that. And he's only had one great season so far.

I expect him to be more like a round four pick, whereas probably would have been a round three pick without the JSN drafting. But for both Debo and DK, you are potentially buying low on a player who had a statistically bad season. And if you are a stats person and you believe in statistical regression, Debo's yards per catch, yards per target, all that, pathetic last year. And I cannot figure out how.

He just did not do the things that he does super well. And he was too good in 2021 for me to think that that's who he is. And DK, very low touchdown rate for a guy who led the NFL in end zone targets by five and has been a touchdown producer. And very low yak. Weird for him. For some reason, yak per catch was really low for him.

So he would have been my favorite. But then you throw in JSN. You throw in all the pieces of the pie. Because I also think we haven't talked about this with Debo unless I'm sorry if I missed it. McCaffrey's going to hurt his targets. McCaffrey and Mitchell, if they're both healthy, I think are going to hurt his carries too. Yep.

It did last year. He had one rushing touchdown in the games with Purdy. I'm just kidding. The games with McCaffrey. And that's such a big piece of, again, he's very good without the rushing. You take the rushing away, you're still getting a quality, probably closer to the low end, but a number two receiver. He just has that much upside still as a pass catcher.

But what makes him special and elite was those rushing numbers. And I just don't think they're going to be there. Yeah. And I get scared going back to like 2021 numbers with, with either of these guys, because the situations were so different. So I, it's like hard for me to think like what Jamie just said, like we have two of the most talented players. I think at least the NFL now in each respective situation and Christian McCaffrey and Jackson Smith, the jig, but I'm a really big fan of, I think is going to be one of the best slots in NFL right away. So it's just

such a different situation there. And then let's not even forget what Jamie mentioned a little bit earlier that we haven't harped on, but it's important. These are still pretty much if they want to be running the offense, the they're hoping to be, run first teams or at least run neutral teams at the very least. So that also takes a little bit away from the pie. Yeah. I can talk about Metcalf for an hour. I spent about an hour and a half researching him this morning.

Go to our Facebook page. I posted some of my thoughts on DK Metcalf. Facebook.com slash, I think it's slash Fantasy Football Today. But if you just go to Facebook and search for Fantasy Football Today, please join our Facebook group. Final question on these two is who would you take ahead of them?

Would you take Christian, would you take Olave ahead of these two? Yep. Yes. Christian Watson, Drake London? Yes. Drake, no on London. Watson, yes. Keenan Allen? Yes. Drake London. No on London. Watson, yes.

Keenan Allen? Definitely. Keenan Allen above all those guys you just mentioned. All right. That's enough names for me. Let's do some more on Jamie's bus list here. Mike Williams. Oh, this was one you didn't agree with, Dan.

So, Jamie, you make the case for Mike Williams as wide receiver 25. So, 46th overall. But if I could just tell people a little bit about the draft that we just did, I can't tell everything, but that's a fourth round ADP. He went with the second to last pick of the seventh round in the draft that we did. I was really shocked at seeing Mike Williams in round four. Anyway, Jamie, wide receiver 25, though, what do you think about that for Mike Williams? That's what it is. It's about cost.

Look, I love the setup with Kellen Moore. I love the setup with Justin Herbert. I think he's going to bounce back in a huge way. And I think a big reason why he's going to bounce back is hopefully a healthy Mike Williams. But we are counting on Mike Williams staying healthy. And last year was very frustrating. You know, only played in 13 games,

but I think that's a little bit, you know, off because he left some games early. Had the back injury at the end of last season. Just got cleared, which is good that he's cleared ahead of training camp. But still, you never like to hear back injury at all, and who knows how that will impact him at some point. But they basically just told us, we're drafting your replacement. And so is that going to be the Aaron Rodgers motivator,

like when we saw when Jordan Love was brought into Green Bay, and maybe he has another big season? Or is it going to be that there's a lot of targets to be split up here because Keenan Allen's still healthy, because Austin Eckler's still there, and now because of Quentin Johnston? So I have no problem taking Mike Williams as a number three receiver. I have no problem taking him if I can get him probably in round six, but I would even sort of look for him in round five, given what most leagues that we draft in, which are wide receiver hungry leagues, that you have to sort of target a player like that. But when you start to get into some of these other scenarios of who's being drafted around him. And so the Steelers guys, I can make

a case for both of them over Mike Williams, Jahan Dodson, Traylon Burks. I can make cases for those guys over Mike Williams. He's got so much talent, so much upside, so much potential, especially with his quarterback and play caller, but he's got to stay healthy and he's got to prove that maybe he's even still better than the guy that they just drafted in the first round. Dan, you are not quite as sold on this bust call. No, I'm not. I just feel like even just in hearing the guys that Jamie mentioned around him, like I wouldn't even consider either of those Steelers guys over Mike Williams. I have no idea if that I'll get to this later when I talk about George Pickens, who's a huge buzz for me, but I don't, I'm not sure that passing game will move at all this year.

At least I know with the Chargers, we're going to see potential for at worst what we got last year from the passing. But I my big reason I'm not in on this bus is I just think the Chargers are very likely to take a massive jump in passing game this year with Kellen Moore, with Rashawn Slater back to be an elite left tackle. I think he can be what he was as a rookie. And so I just feel like that passing game takes a huge jump and I want pieces of it. And in some passing games, it's like, okay, you want a piece of it, but you have to pay a premium. Jalen Waddle, you have to pay a premium for maybe the number two there. Tee Higgins, you have to pay a premium for maybe the number two. But Mike Williams, you're not paying that same premium for hopefully,

but I know it's not a guarantee with Quinton Johnson mix, but hopefully the number two option there and a big red zone threat there as well but you kind of are though that's the thing like in our universe you're not but based on this wide receiver 24 you are sort of paying the premium yeah that's we've seen him go a lot later in our mocks i guess right now based on this yeah but even at wide receiver 24 it's still not that same but yeah it's close to that higgins range i don't't know. I guess just based on the guys Jamie mentioned after, I still think I would take him over. Wide receiver 24 is, is more like, um, Drake London and Christian Watson and Jerry Judy and Chris Godwin and guys like that in our rankings, Mike Williams is no higher than 36. Jamie's

actually the highest on Mike Williams at 36. Dave and Heath have him 39th. I think my question is, um, you know, I think you're going to maybe make your decision on Mike Williams based on what you expect from Quinton Johnston. You know, I don't know. Cause if you don't expect much from Quinton Johnston this year, then Jamie,

I would say you're, you're probably low on Mike Williams. A thousand percent. If they're not going to use him and they're going to use him as just a break glass in case of emergency and he's a future guy for us and we'll just mix him in with Jordan Palmer as the third guy and we'll see how things go there, then clearly Mike Williams should be the same caliber player that he's been, which has been inconsistent, but still by the end of the season, you're getting probably 13 points per game, which is what he's given you, what he gave you last year, at least, you know, especially with injuries.

But again, you got an injured receiver. You've got a talented guy that's going to push him for targets. The saving grace, which is a big one, is his quarterback and play call. Those things are huge. But it's just a matter of I don't want to draft him in this spot. And so if he's going where we're drafting him, I'm all in. If he's going in this spot, I'm all out. Okay.

Next up is Derek Henry, RB8, 25th overall. For us to do a draft where RB8 goes 25th overall, the sky would be falling. Or Henry, for that matter. Yeah. All right, where would you take Derek Henry?

In PPR, I would take him back end of round two. In non-PPR, middle of round two. Okay. So how is he a bust? Cause he's RB eight. I, yeah, I just, it's, it's not so much about that. The draft value is fine. You know, I, again, I don't think this is reflective, you know, so to, to go the other way on the Mike Williams thing, you know,

where we're drafting and clearly is a little bit different. And so I think for Henry, look, it, I, I've fallen victim to this for, for, for several years now that he's going to be a bust. But it's 380 touches per season in the three of the last four years because of how much work they put on him. It's a revamped offensive line that pro football focus expects to be the worst in the NFL going into the season. Now, that might not be the case because they reworked it. But it just feels as if the Titans are headed for a disaster this year. And so, you know, we'll see.

Maybe they get Hopkins and maybe Tannehill stays healthy and Mike Rabel is able to work his magic and things go exactly how they have been. And they're competing for the division title. And, you know, as our colleague, Brian McFadden likes to say, they're a get in the way team, you know, just because I don't think they're a Superbowl team, but they can certainly be a problem for a lot of teams in the AFC. And Derek Henry is clearly the catalyst of that. And you've heard me say this time and time again, he's an alien. He's a freak of nature.

We just never see a player at this size do what he's able of doing. But he's 29 years old. At some point, there's going to be a breakdown of another scenario of, you know, the foot where he misses eight games and just, you know, injuries become a problem because of the workload, because of where he's at at this point in his career. So, again, it's just more for me. I'm out on Derrick Henry. I don't think that the cost on fantasy pros is scary at all. It's actually perfect. You can get him at the turn.

You have to take the chance on Derrick Henry based on what he's given you. But again, I don't see him going that in that range. I don't think we see him going in that range or we'll ever see him go in that range. And so based on what I expect his ADP to be, I'm going to probably pass on Derrick Henry. That's the two,

three turn Jamie's talking about, not the one, two turn. Dan, quick thoughts on Derrick Henry. Yeah. I mean, I'm pretty much along the lines of Jamie here. The only thing I'll say is I do trust in Mike Frable and I trust in maybe Peter Skowronski to

help that offensive line give them the boost they need. It's a lot to rely on one guy in year one. On the interior, you can kind of see it happen more often than not. It really comes down to him just being a freak as to why I'm not going to put him as a full bust, but I'm more along the lines of I'd rather get him back in round two. And I do think I was really surprised when I saw the PFF offensive line ranking because I did think, okay, they made some changes from a group that was terrible last year.

Obviously, they had a lot of injuries, Taylor DeJuan, et cetera. The fact that they still consider it to be the worst unit coming in. Now, again, that's probably a lot of, okay, this is what they had last year, and we'll see what Skowronski does, what I think they got Andre Dillard as well, see what those additions mean to this group. And he's one of these players, we say this about some of the elite running backs, they make

offensive lines better. He's able to avoid tackles behind the line scrimmage and do all those special things that he's been doing for years. And you've got to love the fact that he's been more involved in the passing in the last couple of seasons, but imagine the scenario where we'll have us just starting. Do you really want to trust,

you know, Derek Henry or really a lot of the Titans. And that can clearly be the case if they start to lose early in the year. Yep. All right. I'm looking at the, the 2022 preseason offensive line rankings published mid June last year by a PFF Eagles were. Browns were two.

I don't think that played out. Lions three. Bucks were four. That obviously was a total mess. They had so many injuries. Those injuries, yeah. Packers five. Cowboys six.

Patriots seven. I don't think they were. Out of those top five, they nailed at least, I think, three of them because Packers were third, Eagles were first, and the Lions were also up there as well. Let's see who the worst ones were this time a year ago. The Seahawks. So the Seahawks got they turned that around.

Seahawks hit on two rookies. They did. Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas. They did a great job. The Bears. That was terrible. I mean, not according to PFF. Yeah, no, they actually were better than I thought.

I forgot they were better than you would think. But mostly run blocking. The Steelers were a problem for sure. Yeah. The Raiders had a better year. The Raiders offensive line had a better year than we would have thought. Yeah. And the Falcons, I don't know, I think they were okay.

Falcons had a much better year than we thought. Yeah, the Titans were 27th and they did not have a good line. All right, let's take a break. Oh, actually, no. Jamie, so just to speed things up, I'm sorry. You got three more here. i hate to cut you off but uh bryce hall ken walker george kittle give me 30 seconds or all his injury related um you know just not expecting him to be what we hope he can be you know and and if you tell me right now he's healthy he'd be a breakout candidate as opposed to us

um but i'm i'm just terrified of the injury and what we dealt with last year with, you know, JK Dobbins, for example. So Hall and Javante Williams are two players. I'm probably not going to draft. Certainly Hall at his cost. I'm out Walker.

We know it's the addition of Charbonnet. So that's a, you know, easy guy to fade. I don't think the round five draft value is, is horrible right now. If you want to take a chance on him, if you believe in him.

But the fact that he's the 16th running back off the board, that's too pricey for me. And who did you say, Kittle? The last one? Kittle and Samuel are almost identical. We saw Kittle was awesome last year with Purdy, without Deebo Samuel. With Samuel, he was frustrating.

And now you have maybe Purdy not ready or at least 100% to start the season. So everybody there, 20 miles to feed. Kittle is not the number four tight end for me are you taking Ramondre Stevenson over Brees Hall both of you Steven 1000% I had all I just had that decision and I made that decision to go Stevenson Hall is uh I would take ETN over Hall. Again, health situation being what it is right now.

I would take Najee over Hall. I would take Aaron Jones over Hall. I would take Jameer Gibbs over Hall at this point. Wow. Wow, you have him at 20th

and Dave has him 11th and Heath has Brees Hall 19th. That's obviously a player whose rankings could change. Now, when you get a lot of hype because he's going to be ready for week one,

just remember almost everyone, if not everyone, who was coming back from an ACL injury last year really struggled for a while. Okay, so that was Godwin, who also got hurt in week one, so that's maybe a little unfair. Godwin was actually good. I would put him in the good category for a guy coming back from that injury. On a per-target basis, I think he he was bad he did get so many targets though um and he said it hit midway through the season he said that he wasn't all the way back so you can expect some struggles i would say dobbins was acl right yep barkley two years ago was bad yeah barkley was a

shell of himself the year he came back from the acl so you can get all i'm sure i'm sure there was a ton of hype about barkley coming back from the acl but there was a shell of himself that he came back from the ACL so you can get all I'm sure I'm sure there was a ton of hype about Barkley coming back from the ACL but there was a game of course there was when the games actually start playing you see these guys they're not 100% and um you know just be prepared all right we'll take a break and when we come back we will finish with some more busts on Dan's list and we'll be right back all right Schneier let's get first of all I thought you you mentioned that you took Ramondre Stevenson in that draft. I thought you overdrafted Ramondre Stevenson. I felt pretty good about where I got him.

You think of him in the second round. I think he's a third-round pick. I think what we saw in the target volume, we'll see what happens there. Then you took Josh Allen in the third round, and I thought he was a second-round pick. So I think if you switched those picks, they would have been better. So that was good. Anyway, you start with switch those picks, they would have been better. So that was good. Anyway, you start with

Travis Etienne, who we already talked about. And why don't we go with Aaron Jones next? Aaron Jones is RB17. Yes, I had tiers of busts based on confidence level. He was more in my second tier, but he still is not a player I would draft. So still, with Jones, you're still getting

somebody who is really great in elusive rating yards per carry yards after contact that things I look at specifically, can you force them as tackles and are you creating yards after contact independent or good stats to look at a prediction wise, Jacob Gibbs has a little more on this, but the big issue for me from a fantasy standpoint is he's still a committee back. You look at the last, over the last two years, he has just seven more rushing attempts at the last, over the last two years, he has just seven

more rushing attempts than AJ Dillon over the last two years, a lot more targets, 137 to 180, but it's just seven more rushing attempts. So he's still in a committee. So I think the overall thing for me is here. Why do I want to invest in a player? Because right now he's still being drafted pretty high. And I think it's a lot based on his name brand, but why am I going to want to invest that much in a player who could be in, in my opinion, one of the NFL's dark horse offenses to be worse than the NFL. We still have not seen any proof that Jordan love can keep the past game on schedule. It's all just hope and speculation. Touchdowns could be incredibly hard to come by for Aaron Jones on the ground. And overall, because that could be AJ, they could be funneling through AJ Dillon, the rare times they

even do get in the red zone. So now I'm looking at a guy with very low touchdown upside. And I also think Jordan love could hurt Jones's past game volume too. I think that could turn him into the word, you know, giving him potentially his worst receiving a season as a receiving back that we've seen in a long time. So now I'm looking at a committee back on what could be a really bad offense, very rare opportunities to score here. If he's not the red zone back passing volume could be limited. Why am I taking him where players like even Ken Walker, I don't love, but has more talent. Jameer Gibbs, Damon Pierce, mix in Dobbins. These are all players who I'd be taking over Aaron Jones. I feel like he's just like Jamie said before with some of these players, like Devante Adams, like he's almost ranked a little bit based on name brand

here. And you're not looking fully at the overall picture and his situation right now which is really bad in my opinion and jamie disagreed with that one as he did with all of your bus calls well i i mean i this is another one i struggle with you know just because again the the cost but you know as we've noted you know running backs on fantasy pros tend to fall a little bit but if you're getting him at this spot i think it's worth it i do think that the the the thing that will sway this, because yes, he's in a committee back, and yes, this offense is probably going to take a downturn. How do you lose it to time MVP or whatever?

How many MVPs do you want Aaron Rodgers and get better, even if age is a factor? But I still trust in Matt LaFleur, and I still think that Jordan Love, if there's going to be the safety valve for him, as good as Christian Watson can be, as good as maybe Romeo Dobbs and Jalen Reed could be.

This is still a guy that's going to be in the top three at worst, maybe still top two in targets, which is something that he's been every time ever since Matt LaFleur has gotten there. And so is that just a byproduct of Aaron Rodgers, who's still very mobile quarterback, despite, you know, getting up and aged for what he's able to do. Jordan Love may have a lot of mobility to him or maybe more so. The receiving game is going to sway this because he lost touchdown opportunities to AJ Dillon and probably will. So again, but if he's still going to be that type of pass catcher, which I think he's capable of, that's what saves it for me.

So if, if I, if I take Aaron Jones and I whiff it's because he's not going to be this type of player in the passing game, and that could very well be the case because, yes, the scoring should go down if, in fact, this team takes a step back. If you were debating between Jameer Gibbs and Aaron Jones, does Jameer Gibbs just seem like a more exciting version of Aaron Jones? For me, yes. Behind a better offensive line, in my opinion, and potentially much better offense.

Yeah, I think the thing that may be different, and this is probably how you view David Montgomery, is David Montgomery better than A.J. Dillon? I would still say yes. Yeah, he certainly might be. By the way, speaking of exciting, we are up to $631 for the final spot in the FFT Startup Dynasty League. So I can buy that spot,

make a nice donation to St. Jude and then give it away to whoever I want. Right. Technically. I'm not answering that question. I'm not, I mean, that's, I'm not entertaining that question.

What if, what if I, what if I wanted to buy it from the highest bidder and then give it to the highest bidder? You mean outbid someone and give it to the second? Yeah. Oh, you're trying to make money off of this? I'm making money?

No, he was trying to do a nice thing there. You buy it and then you read. Pay for the guy. I thought you were saying you give it. Okay, well, I thought you meant like you bid for it. You donate to St. Jude. Then sell it? And then you sell it and try to get even more like a ticket scalper.

I'm not like Ticketmaster. Yeah, like you're going to wait until just before the draft and see if I can get more money like this, like you're scalping this. Yeah, you can do whatever you want, Jamie, as long as it's going to a good cause, which it is. But, you know, let the viewers, let the listeners and viewers get in on that.

I'm just going to give away the podcast league spots. I've already given away four. You don't know it yet. I don't even want to tell people how amazing i do want to tell people i can't what we have in store for a podcast league this year yeah it is new it is amazing whose idea was it by the way was it yours yeah oh nice nice it was actually my idea jamie's joking but no it was jamie's idea um no, Jamie had a great idea and personally

I don't remember Jamie coming up with the idea, but fine. Jamie's idea, it's going to be so cool and can't wait to share that with you. It should be pretty soon, I think. Back to the bad stuff here, the busts. So which ones, I'm sorry I went away from your tears, your precious bust

tears. Well, you've let me go. I've gotten to get to two bus so far. All right, go ahead. Keep going. Three, three, three, right? Who was my third? I've only had Jones and ETN. But I'll get back to this and I'll rapid fire these. I mean, you've been crapping on George Pickens intermittently throughout the show. True. So we'll get to George Pickens.

So with George Pickens, this is a great stat. I'm going to shout out Ian Hartitz because he came up with that. He, I saw him tweet this one as well on joining Kenny Pickett last year. These are the quarterbacks who failed to throw for 10 touchdowns with 10 plus start in their first season. David Carr, Bruce Grodkowski, Jimmy Clawson, Mitchell Trubisky, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, and Kyle Orton. That's the tier he's in so far from last year. Okay. So you think, okay, things are going to get better, right? For Pittsburgh, they have to, right?

They're bringing back the same scheme. We look at the offense that made a jump last year. Daniel Jones with Brian Dable, right? You look at Trevor Lawrence with Doug Peterson. They're bringing it back. They're running it back here. So where am I getting my passing game production from is my first question, George Pickens. Then I look at every draft we've done and George Pickens goes off the board before Deontay Johnson. And I have

no idea why, because in their 11 games together, George Pickens averaged just over five targets a game, just 58 targets compared to, and that was 34 behind Deontay Johnson in the 11 games that he had with George Pickett. And yet he's being drafted ahead of Deontay Johnson, George Pickett. So I guess the thought is he's just so awesome. He makes those crazy catches. And I think he is a great talent, but great talent doesn't help in fantasy football unless you're getting target volume or unless you're playing with a really good quarterback and a good passing game.

He has neither of those two things right now. So I have no clue where the George Pickens type is coming from. He's someone I have almost no interest in drafting. Interesting. Go ahead, Jamie. No, I honestly don't disagree with a lot of that. The only thing is like you want to bank on talent. And we know he fell in the NFL draft because of some of the off-field stuff

as opposed to the on-field stuff and injury concerns. And so, look, the Steelers obviously are going to get better. I think Pickett's too talented. I think Deontay Johnson, Friar Moose, Pickens, they're all very good, I think, at what they do. I'm in total agreement. I don't understand Pickens over Deontay Johnson. That's, to me, a huge mistake, especially in any sort of PPR,

half PPR scoring. You're going to get many more targets and many more catches for Deontay Johnson, but I'm just hoping that, you know, this, this, this guy steps forward now we'll see. I hate to bring up, you know, the shell of former players, but the shell of former player, Alan Robinson, what that means. Two pickings is obviously I could be a negative. I think Fryer Muth, the addition of Darnell Washington,

allowing Fryermuth to be a big slot receiver for them, big slot, tight end, whatever you want to call it, the Dalton Kincaid role as well, is huge. Because what we saw from a metric standpoint, that in terms of yards per route run, Fryermuth was second to Travis Kelsey when he played in the slot. So if he's able to be that type of productive option, that's going to be a pretty good thing for Pat Fryermuth.

So again, does Kenny Pickett support three potential standout caliber players? I agree with Dan. The answer is no. It's also a run-oriented coach that's going to rely on his defense. As we saw last year, that's the way Mike Tomlin wants to win games he's fine winning a 9-6 football game 9-7 football game you know he's he just wants to get the W he doesn't care how aesthetically pleasing or displeasing it may look so yes Pickens is is a little frustrating but I just hope that the talent sort of rises to the top and that's where George Pickens wins but you know statistically it's hard to argue against that

especially with what Pickett has done so far in his young career. All right. Rashad White, we talked about him yesterday on the Breakout Show. He was one of Heath's breakouts, and he is one of your busts at RB27. Yeah, so Rashad White, just an incredibly inefficient rookie. I guess on paper, it seems like he's a very explosive back. He's good. 39th best running back, according to PFF overall grade, 3.7 yards for carry just inside the top 40 there. 39th, not great. Yards after contact per attempt, 41st. He's not a guy who shakes tackles. Elusive rating, which I thought would be better.

Like, can he force missed tackles? 40th best there. So a really bad rookie season rushing the football that doesn't get talked about a lot because he had so many targets in the passing game and he did so much good work in the passing game. He also had the best possible quarterback you can have as a running back for the passing game in the history of the NFL with Tom Brady. Tom Brady's getting these running backs and checks. I watched him oftentimes motion out Rashad White into the slot when he saw a matchup in the red zone he liked and then an easy touchdown there. None of that is here this year with Baker Mayfield and with Kyle Trask. It's all gone. All of that, he's still going to be featured in the passing game,

I guess, but it's just not the same. And so now you look at that, he's losing some of the great passing game efficiency he had. He was already not an efficient runner. And so what am I investing in here? I'm investing in a second year back on an offense that could be one of the worst in the NFL. We think at best, they're probably in the bottom 10 at worst. They're probably the worst offense in the NFL or bottom five, even if they're just bottom 10. And this is, so I forgot who had this stat, but only five or only one of every five or what, sorry, 5% of running backs finish in the top 12 if they're in a bottom 10 offense. So you're kind of taking away the breakout there, I think in this kind of offense. And then most of those running backs don't even

finish in the top 24 either. Uh, if you're, if you're in a bottom 10 offense. So for me with Rashad white, I think his stats were propped up almost entirely by Tom Brady running that offense. I don't think he's a good running back. I know there's no competition there, but I have just, these are not the backs that I invest in the ones in really bad offenses who weren't really good at all in any way as a rookie, as far as running the football, he was pretty good as a receiver. Yeah. It's going to come down again to the passing down work, you know, and what they continue to do with him. Look, he's got the runways open. You know, there there's nobody on this team. That's going to take him off the field. I think, you know, based on who's, who's there right now. Now, this is, I would also say, one of the likely destinations

for someone to come in, whether it's Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Kareem Hunt, I don't think Leonard Fournette's going back there, but there is a likely chance that they still add somebody to bring in some competition. But he should get a boost in carries, and if he's still involved in the passing game, to whatever extent, 50 catch is probably not realistic, but can he still be a boost in carries. And if he's still involved in the passing game, to whatever extent, 50 catch is probably not realistic, but can he still be a 40 catch guy?

I think that's probably fair, knowing what Baker and Trask do in terms of being not the most mobile of guys. So I'm still hopeful for that regard. And again, based on what his cost is here, it's okay. Based on what his cost tends to be in our drafts, I don't necessarily disagree with Dan. I think that might be a little bit too rich.

I would say that Heath mentioned that Baker Mayfield was number one in the NFL in check down rate last year, I believe. So that was something that was encouraging for Heath. And, you know, just how do we feel? That was probably a lot with McCaffrey, right? I don't know. Even in where we're the case we're making for these guys like Aaron Jones and White is like they're going to be so involved in the passing game, which is great in some ways.

Maybe if you're in a full PPR, but if you're in an offense that doesn't score points and you're not scoring in the red zone and you're not breaking off big runs, I just don't know where you're just getting all your points from receiving. That's not enough to prop you into a ring. Like, it's probably enough to get you in the backend of RB two every week. RB. So I was going to say is, is round six too early for you for in a 12 team league round six. So that's after pick 60. Is that too early for you?

Uh, for Rashad white, me or Jamie, both of you for me, for sure. I'll never take this type of back in round six over a receiver that I can gamble on. No, I have no problem taking that.

Okay, so Jamie's fine with him in round six. I just personally don't invest too much in advanced metrics or even basic metrics for a running back as a rookie. Le'Veon Bell and Christian McCaffrey, for example,

had horrible rookie seasons. Okay. I don't think there were, I mean, personally, I'm not sure there were a lot of running backs who would have had success on that team last year. They were terrible up front. They were so beat up. Brady was getting rid of the ball so quickly.

He's always doing that, but even more so last year. So I don't know. I don't think he's necessarily a good running back. I don't want to condemn him to being a bad running back yet, but I said this on yesterday's show. The reason why Rashad White is going in the sixth round and not the fourth round is Mike Davis

and Miles Gaskin. Right? Those failures will always resonate. In fact, they'll make Dan lie about every time he gets a chance. I'll take that draft up. I know you took at least Gaskin in that draft. In one mock draft, once upon a time, I did. But I faded those guys.

And now I think everybody, and it's a similar situation. Nobody believes in Rashad White, I don't think, as a talent. They believe in the role. And that's good. Ordinarily, you know, years past, he would have gone earlier. I think people are, are wising up and saying, Hey, you may not be obvious who he's going to lose his job to, but he could lose his job, even though it's not super obvious right now.

Anyway, we're kind of running out of time, Dan. So I'll get you a little faster here. Give me a 30 second take on Aaron Rogers as a-second take on Aaron Rodgers as a bust. At QB 16, he's a bust. Yeah, so it's more so not bust. It's more so a situation of I'd much rather wait a few rounds to get either Russell Wilson, Stafford,

or any of these other pure pocket passers. That's what he is now. He averaged 20, or sorry, he hasn't made an impact as a rushing quarterback since it looks like the 2019 season. So he's no longer adding any points as a rusher. Now he's also going from the third best offensive line last year to the 31st best in 2022 for the Jets. And I think it could get worse.

The relying on McKay Becton, who had multiple lower, like just massive injuries, plus a 38-year-old Dwayne Brown. These are their two tackles. So things get worse. He's also going from facing, you know, the NFC. And this was a shout out to Pat Thorman who said this, and it was a great point.

He's going from facing the NFC North, which had the 27th, 28th and 32nd worst or best defenses in DVO way to a division that has the third and fourth and 15th best defenses. And that's six of the games on the schedule as well. So it's for me, it's like, he's not a massive boss,

but it's like, why am I investing in a pocket passer here when I can just get these guys later when the situation isn't even that good? It's a pretty good point. I, the counter is he's, he was a pocket passer when he won the MVP, blah, blah, but you make a good point. I mean, Jamie, you can buy that argument real quick. No, I think it's right. But it's again, QB 16. It's, it's hard to say that there's still not a lot of upside there as well because you look at the receivers that he had last year. Christian Watson was a rookie and inconsistent and certainly didn't start to produce until the middle of the year, and really that was it.

And so I think you look at Garrett Wilson as a talent. I like him better than what Christian Watson was last year, certainly coming into his second season based on what he did. I like the addition of Alan you know, Alan Lazard, Amiko Harmon and Corey Davis, just the group there. I think the tight ends are a little underrated as well with Tyler Conklin.

And I think he's motivated, you know, we've seen what a motivated Aaron Rogers has looked like. So he's never going to bounce back to that level, but to be a low end starter, you know, I, I think you're,

you're hoping that he's, he's back to being, you know, something closer to what he was two years ago as to what he was last year. Now age is a problem. You don't like that. As Dan said, the offensive line can be a concern. The running back situation might be a concern if Brees Hall is not ready to go, so taking some

pressure off of him, but I still like the opportunity for Rodgers to be higher than 16th, and I would certainly take him at 16th if still given the choice. For me, the best quarterback in this range is Kirk Cousins. The fact that he's the 11th quarterback off the board ahead of Anthony Richardson, according to fantasy pros, that to me is a little egregious.

See, I would go Cousins over Rodgers. I don't have a problem with that. I don't have a problem with that. But I think, again, one's going 11th, one's going 16th. To me, they're much closer to each other and should probably be closer to 16th. The one other thing I wanted to add on Rodgers is, and it's only based on the one game sample size I saw against the Giants on film, but from reading people who also break down game film of the Packers, he took a step back last year and it wasn't arm related.

It was mental processing related. He didn't see throws on the field that I've just never seen him miss from a processing standpoint. And he wasn't moving out of the pocket like he has been. So I'm wondering if we are seeing a little bit of a decline in that regard of his game. The arm strength is still all there. So that's going to be there as well. he's still going to have the wow throws but the you know i just feel like he's also declining a little bit as a quarterback well i got my number one hater in the youtube chat right now don don saxby he's calling me

numb adam numb nuts he likes to call he loves that numb nuts he's gone to that like every time i brought it up though because dan he's he's ripping on my hair. He said, Adam, do you use follicle stick and paste? Like, dude, Don, you definitely have terrible hair. He's actually the best your hair's looked in a long time. I agree. I'm having a terrific hair day. Don has terrible hair. He is mad.

He is incredibly jealous of me. And I think I just figured out why he hates me so much. Follicle stick and paste. Can I do a quick? Go ahead. Go ahead. Well, i know we're running that time i want to get a couple quick things on my final two busts if we have yeah yeah i'm sure dak prescott and marquise brown i disagree i disagree with both of them by the way disagree

both so dak prescott actually one of the first takes i ever had on fft when you brought me on a little while ago adam was that dak prescott after the injury and after the contract was going to see it be a completely different fantasy quarterback. And they were no longer going to use him as a rusher in the red zone. Like they had been to a crazy degree earlier in his career. And he was going to lose all his rushing value. Well, and the past two seasons,

he's had just two rushing touchdowns. He had 24 from 2016 to 2020. He's had just two. So he is now officially a pocket passer. So that already. No, no, that that's taking away. He can still rush for 300 plus yards. He is not Aaron a pocket passer. So that already. No, no, no. That's taking away.

He can still rush for 300 plus yards. He is not Aaron Rodgers. 300 yards. Okay. But he's not Brady, Rodgers, Stafford. He's not that. Sure. He gives you an extra 30 points with rushing, but he's no longer scoring like he was.

And he's no longer used on the zone read runs in the red zone, which was a big part of his fantasy success. Again, 24 touchdowns, 2016, 2020, just two in the last two years, he averaged 7.3 yards per attempt. So now as a pure pocket passer, we're looking at a team, the Cowboys were 25th in pass rate over expected last season, 25th. And now Mike McCarthy says, I want to run the ball more. No huddle was a big part of also the Kellen Moore. Now that's going to grind to a halt because no huddle is not going to be as big of a thing with Mike McCarthy. It never has been in his coaching career. So they were 25th last year

in pass right over respected. I expect that to drop. They'll run even more this year. So now you have a pure packet pocket passer who might not be running as much, no huddle who's on a team that's running over expect, uh, over expected. They did that last year. I, this whole thing that they're going to run the ball more. I'm not sure about that. They did that plenty last year. And all these things you're saying about Dak being a different quarterback, you're ignoring the most important thing. In 2021, he was QB 7 per game. In 2022, he was QB 9 per game.

I don't draft Dak Prescott because I don't really see him. I see all the problems that you see, and I think that limits his upside. But he's still so good playing behind a great offensive line, and he will be super efficient, and he'll probably be something like the eighth to 10th best quarterback. That's the way I see it with Dak. I don't really draft him. Cause I don't think he's a home run at the position.

I think he's, you know, a fine player, but I can't call him a bust. If he's QB 11, he's, he is the antithesis of weight on a QB, you know,

because you're going to get a very good floor, occasionally some good ceiling plays. I don't think you're going to get a top five QB on a consistent basis, but I agree with you a hundred percent, Adam, you know, when, when Mike McCarthy made those comments following Kellen Moore's, you know, leaving the team, he, he very much, he said this at, at the league meetings to some people that I trust, and he said it with the media gathering. He said it was taken out of context, and I think a lot of people ran with just the snippet of it, that he wants to run more and not have the, what do you say,

about the highlight, the scoreboard dinging, whatever he said, with Kellen Moore. He definitely wants to, I think, be more balanced, but it's hard to be more balanced. I think to what Dan's saying makes a lot more sense. A lot less know-how to slow down the game, pace of play, and do, more, more balanced. I think, you know, to what Dan's saying makes a lot more sense, a lot less, no huddle, slow down the game of pace of play and, and do a little bit more things, but you're, you're taking away a guy that scored 12 touchdowns. I think 10 of them were from the two yard line. You know,

how many of those are going to now become potential passing plays, you know, with Ezekiel Elliott, no longer there. Cause I don't know if Tony Pollard profiles of that guy. And I don't think they have that guy yet on the roster. This is a team that can bring back Elliot or could potentially add somebody else as well. So I, I think Dak is still going to be good enough that you can trust them as a

low end starter, but he's absolutely in that group or, you know, the, the, the, the quarterbacks of Kirk cousins and Aaron Rogers and Gino Smith and Daniel Jones.

Oh, he's not ahead of that group for me. He is. But I think for, for what we're talking about, anytime you get past, I think, you know, QB 8, 9, 10, you're starting to put guys into this category of there's not a lot of upside. Right, that's my point.

I know I'm getting these other guys so much later and I'm not moving much upside. In a super flex league, though, I just say my last thing on this, in a 2QB or super flex league, he is an easy call over these upside guys behind him because he's just not... Some of these guys aren't upside guys behind him.

He's almost bus proof. I can see that point. I can see you swinging. The one that honestly I struggle with with Dak is Tua just because if you tell me Tua is healthy, it's easy. And look at that. Tua or Dak. I would take Tua in a 1QB and Dak in a 2QB.

I wrote in here, these are the players I see after him. Deshaun Watson, I would take over Dak. Two, I would take over Dak. Kirk Cousins, I would definitely take over Dak. No. Yes, Kirk Cousins in an offense that passes the ball all the time. They just did that last year. Dak, I think, was better than him last year.

And to be honest, you know, I know some of his blue keys. Kirk Cousins was worse last year with more pass attempts. Brandon Cooks, by the way. He didn't have Brandon Cooks last year. He had Michael Gallup as a shell of himself. You know, I mean, look, I don't know. I mean, Cousins, it's so funny. I did this research on, like, how good a quarterback can be

if he produces two top 16 wide receivers. It was originally two top 15 wide receivers, but there were so many examples of top 16 that I was like, okay, I got to make this two top 16 wide receivers. And pretty much almost all of them were really good or had terrific seasons. The worst one of the last like seven years of a quarterback giving us two top 16 wide receivers, because I was doing this research for Tua specifically and where we should rank him. The worst one was Tua Tungavailoa last year, but he got hurt. The worst one on a team where he didn't get hurt was Kirk Cousins.

Like for Kirk Cousins to give us Jefferson and Thielen, Jefferson, Diggs and Thielen, and still never be an elite quarterback. It really stood out to me that he just doesn't, I just don't think he has that upside no matter what because he's already given us two great fantasy wide receivers in multiple seasons, and he's never had that huge year. I don't think Dak has that upside either. Yeah, I don't either.

I agree with that, but I think he's safer than Cousins. All right, we are so over time, but that's okay. I think we're having a good show. Good fun show. Marquise Brown, bold prediction. My Marquise Brown bold prediction that he was going to be a top 10 wide receiver this year. Oh boy.

He's wide receiver 29. What you were looking at, I think is actually rankings, not ADP. Yeah. My, I just think he's going to be the number one wide receiver and be a total target hog. But what, why is he a bus that wide receiver 29, Marquise Brown? It's just a quick one for me. I think it's a similar trap that we fall into a lot.

Some people fall into a lot of fantasy. We're all just assuming he's the top target getter there, despite the fact that Arizona has a brand new offensive system in place. He doesn't have a great rapport building with the quarterback, potentially bad quarterback play. So we're doing the thing where we bank on and assume volume. And to me, that's one of the easiest way to lose in fantasy football. I just heard doing the thing where we bank on, bank on and assume volume. And to me, that's one of the easiest way to lose in fantasy football.

I just heard a Cardinals offensive line. Will Hernandez talk glowingly about, he goes just the fact that I'm out. Why is he so excited about this new offensive scheme and mentality? He's like, we're the fact that we're showing already how much we're going to emphasize the run game. It gets me really excited.

He smiled and they are going to emphasize the run game there because they don't really have a quarterback who can emphasize the passing game. So now I'm banking on a team with low passing volume to begin with not passing efficiency, no explosiveness in the quarterback has a very limited arm Colt McCoy. We don't know if Kyler Murray will play. If they lose a lot of games early, I don't see any reason for Kyler Murray to play. So we're just assuming he's the number one, despite that they brought the new regime brought in Michael Wilson, who if healthy to me is a better receiver than Marquise Brown. From what I've seen on tape, Michael Wilson was only felt around three because of injuries.

And I think his skillset fits a lot better for Colt McCoy because he's a more of the DeAndre Hopkins type of receiver who you throw it anywhere near him and he catches the football versus the Marquise Brown, which you kind of need a big arm. You kind of need to throw into space and let him run under it. So players going after him, Brandon, I, you definitely take over him. Deontay Johnson, definitely take over him. Trelon Burks, Christian Kirk, that list goes on and on for me. And I didn't even bring up the biggest factor with Marquise Brown, the injuries.

They've been there all career with him. They're reoccurring their lower body stuff, their feet. They're, you know, so it's just, I don't really see it at all with Marquise Brown. I disagree with a lot of what you said, but I think it all makes sense. No, no, I mean, I think they're all good points. I just see it differently. It's the beauty of fantasy football. Right, exactly.

Will Hernandez can say whatever he wants. This is not going to be a run-heavy team. They're going to have one of the worst defenses, I think. And even if they are run-heavy, I mean, no, they're not going to be run-heavy. They're not going to be that good at running the football. I just think he's clearly the most accomplished receiver on the team, clearly the best receiver on the team. And I do agree with you that you said some names I don't remember,

but I don't think Traylon Burks, definitely Christian Kirk, maybe Traylon Burks ahead of him. I would not take DeAndre Johnson ahead of him. I think he's going to be fine. I him. I think he's going to be fine. I don't really think he's going to be top 10, but I remember when Jarvis Landry and Larry Fitzgerald were top five wide receivers in 2017 just because they had so many catches

and it was a down year for receivers. So I could see something like that happening. Honestly, it comes down to, do you expect Kyler Murray to play? If you expect Kyler Murray to play, you should be all in on Marquise Brown. Because despite his injuries... I would definitely like him more if I felt more confident about the Murray situation. I feel very confident in it.

Why? I'll tell you why I feel confident in it. Why would they rush him back to this team? Because I have a conspiracy theory about it. Okay. They want to draft Caleb Williams. They are going to be bad whether Kyler Murray plays or not.

He needs to go out and be bad for the fan base to turn on him to justify the Caleb Williams pick. This is not a real fantasy opinion of mine, but that is a conspiracy theory of mine. However, my real fantasy football opinion is that we do sometimes sit here and say, oh, why would

they bring him back? Why would they rush him back? This guy's a football player. His job is to play football. He will want to play football. I think he will be out there by week three. I looked at track records of quarterbacks who have torn their ACL even late in the year. They are usually back by week one, if not a little bit later than that. I think Kyler Murray will be out there. He only had a torn ACL. I saw some quarterbacks who had torn ACLs and either MCLs or PCLs come back in week one, two or three. Kyler Murray, I expect he will be back. If not, he won't be back. He won't be out for that long. And he's a football player. He's going to go out there and play football. That's basically as

simple as it is for me. Yeah, I mean, it's possible. And that would change my outlook completely on Brown. So, Oh, look at this question. Is Caleb Williams good? That's another hour and 15 minute podcast with Dan. This is Dan's favorite player ever. USC quarterback.

Uh, we, uh, what's the, what's the bidding up to now? Eight hundred and almost $3. It's been three hours. now? $853. It's been three hours it's been out there.

This is terrific. Join our Startup Dynasty League. Great show, guys. Thank you very much. Love the content today. Thank you to our chat. Please hit the like button. And we'll talk to you tomorrow with a mailbag on Fantasy Football today.