Fantasy Football Today - Early Busts! Joe Burrow, Darren Waller and More (04/07 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: April 7, 2022

As we look at the biggest busts for 2022, Dave and Heath begin with the bust they're most confident will fail to meet expectations (1:25) ... News and notes (9:00) with Stefon Diggs signing an extension and the Jets offering for D.K. Metcalf. Is Diggs a top 5 WR this season? What's Metcalf's dynasty value? ... Running back busts (18:00) with Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook leading the way, and why you should avoid Cam Akers and Cordarrelle Patterson ... Wide receiver and tight end busts (34:00) as Deebo Samuel won't find the endzone as much, Robert Woods and Hunter Renfrow could struggle for targets and Darren Waller and Dawson Knox are in for down seasons. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races. Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again.

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Welcome to the Fantasy Football Today podcast. I'm Jamie Eisenberg, that's Dave Richard, that's Heath Cummings, our buddy Adam taking a little vacation, so he's going to be off for the next, I guess, four shows or so, so you're stuck listening to me. But hopefully we'll entertain you just the same. So guys, today we're talking about a subject that I don't really love.

I don't think a lot of us like talking about players, especially star players who are going to be failures. But today's topic is about busts. So the fantasy busts that we're looking at for the upcoming season. And it's really hard to qualify in April what a bust is because for me, I don't know if you guys look at it this way, but for me, it's always about, you know, average draft position when these guys are being selected and clearly what the value is by comparison to how we think they're going to perform. And in this case, we're going to think that they're going to perform most likely poorly. So before we get into the meat of the show, I just want to get a quick take. Dave, your most confident bust, and I think that's a really weird way to qualify it, but the bust that you think is going to actually come to fruition,

the guy that you think is going to clearly fail based on the expectations of maybe having some still success going into the upcoming season we were so excited about how a monros saint brown finished 2021 and i just i i can't see him replicating anything close to what he did in that five or six week span that he had going into 2022 because he did a lot of that without TJ Hawkinson on the field. He did a lot of that without DeAndre Swift on the field. He definitely did all that without DJ Shark on the field because Shark was on a completely different team. And I just, I, there were some metrics that he had that I didn't like.

He averaged 11 yards per catch. It's not very high. His ADOT was right around seven targets inside of 10 yards. So this is near the goal line to all those stats rank outside the top 25 amongst receivers from week 13 until the end of the season. So if he's not getting that crazy high target volume that he had early or basically in that time, week 13 on, he's not going to come anywhere close to being what he was he might not even be half as good as what he was in that final stretch and i think that's the like the people who defend amon ross st brown would say he doesn't have to be a top six wide receiver like he was that's not going to make him a bust if he's not bad he's being drafted as the number 22 wide receiver in full pp and i i mostly

agree i've got him as a wide receiver three but i do think i like his chances a lot better of justifying adp than repeating what he did over that six or seven game sample yeah right now you know uh based on the nfc adp which is something you hear us reference a lot it's a high leagues stake a high stakes league excuse me a high league's a high stakes league that we reference their ADP all the time. He's going currently as the 20th receiver off the board, 53rd overall. So it could be a little bit too soon based on how things are going to shake out. And again, we're talking about this prior to the NFL draft, and so that could push some guys up, push some guys down.

But I think we all kind of agree that Amon Ross St. Brown feels like a bust. He's a guy that I've written about as well as a bust in both versions of the bus column i've already written yes i've written two bus columns already uh by april so that's dave's guy you hate to talk about it but i've already written two bus columns everybody yeah uh the guy that you're most confident failing he would be who you know i i actually went a different direction when i wrote mine and did it by the consensus rankings at fantasy pros because i don't really trust any adp this early but thankfully he's even higher in nfc adp than he is in the consensus ranking so i feel even more

confident joe burrow is currently qb4 yep yeah according to nfcP, he's number six at, in, uh, just at the consensus rankings. And I, I, I talked about this in FFT and five, the problem for me with burrow is he was remarkably efficient. That's not a bad thing. Like I know it sounds like I'm poo pooing. He was so great. He can't be that good again, but it's also true. His yards per attempt and touchdown rate were both higher than the current active leader in both of those categories. There have been 10 quarterbacks who have had a yard per attempt as high as him since 2000. None of them came particularly close to repeating it. So by my math, he needs about 50 more pass attempts this year to match the number of fantasy points per

game he produced last year. Now, last year, of fantasy points per game he produced last year. Now, last year, those fantasy points per game made him QB nine. The year prior, it would have been QB 11. I don't see how he gets to QB four or QB six. QB six is doable. I think QB four is going to take probably some injuries or some failures, but I mean, if he's QB eight, but he's half a point worse than QB4, because we can certainly see it all bunched up, that's going to probably be something that people will look at and split hairs. I'm sure most people are going to say, well, he got three new offensive linemen,

a new center, a new right guard, a new right tackle, and hopefully that's going to lead to better production. And I know, Heath, you're not saying to avoid him as a number one quarterback. You're just saying to avoid him as a top six quarterback, right? Yeah. I would put him in the same group with Stafford and Rogers and cousins and car basically all in that tier at the end.

And I think a couple of those guys will be top 10 quarterbacks. And a couple of those guys are going to finish 13th through 15th. And I don't have a strong feeling on which will be which right now. Now, Dave, you think if I remember correctly, that Burrow is going to be better than he was a year ago, correct? I think he's got a chance when you just look at, he threw for 4,600 yards and 34 touchdowns, and his offensive line got better.

So the pass protection is going to be better. And listen, I think he was the top graded passer when under pressure last year. And he was like 11th or 12th when he was in the pocket. So that was kind of weird. That's almost backwards. Usually quarterbacks aren't like that. But Burrow, I think, has a chance to take a big step forward when he's got time to throw and still be good when he is pressured.

I think there's room for him to actually have just better raw numbers, more touchdowns than he had last year and more yards than he had last year i also think he gets more attempts than he had last year he had 520 so i could see it going up but that being said it doesn't mean that i think that he's a top five type of fantasy quarterback i'm certainly not targeting him any earlier than i'm targeting pretty much any non-elite tier quarterback but the the guys that Heath did name, the Stafford, the Rogers, the Carr, the Cousins, I would put Burrow ahead of all of them. I think that he's worth taking.

When you get to that midpoint in the quarterback hierarchy, I think he's at the top of the list there because I do think there is room for him to be better than what he was last year. Heath, you seem like you want to jump in anything, yeah, well, I just like he could be better, but it has to be volume based. Yes,

that's my problem. Like the offensive line, I don't believe can make his efficiency better because his efficiency last year was otherworldly. It was the same type of thing we saw from Patrick Mahomes and his best year from Lamar Jackson and his best year from Josh Allen in his best year and efficiency wise all those guys have been worse since that year um so it has to be again I think it takes 50 pass attempts to get him to the raw numbers he had now I'm talking per game because he did he only played 16 games right this year right so correct so yeah I mean the raw numbers might be better because he plays a 17th game but per

game I think he needs probably three more pass attempts per game just to match what he did last year and and 4634 is pretty lofty to begin with so for him to do better than that you know you are asking a lot but i do think i agree with dave that he is ahead of that group that you mentioned keith but i don't think he's that far ahead so i do think that the adp is a little bit ridiculous right now that he is a top five quarterback right He's absolutely going to take advantage of the hype that came with him making the Super Bowl last year. The casual drafters are going to remember that and that it's going to push them higher in their minds. Well, it's also the conversation we have a lot when you talk about two top tier receivers and how is the quarterback not going to make those guys special when we're

drafting Jamar Chase in the first round and T Higgins most likely in the third round uh clearly the quarterback's going to be a big part of those guys having success and so hopefully Joe Burrow does play well but again don't draft him as the fourth quarterback off the board at least as now all right we're going to talk about a lot of us but you know what today is it's uh Thursday April 7th it's opening day but it's also the start of the Masters, and the 2022 Masters is underway, and the First Cut Golf Podcast has you covered with round-by-round coverage after every tournament day. Rick Elman, Kyle Porter, and the First Cut crew

are breaking down the odds board every night and bringing you analysis from the grounds of Augusta National. Go join the First Cut Golf Podcast, available wherever you're listening to this podcast, wherever podcasts are found. All right, some news and notes to get to before we get back into the bus conversation and this guy might be a bust based on some expectations certainly based on a salary because the bills are definitely jumping into the wide receiver fray of paying their star player uh stefan digs signed a four

year 104 million dollar extension through 2027 so digs going to be with the bills, be with Josh Allen for the next five seasons, hopefully. But we know how the contracts work and how salaries go. They might not necessarily get to that point, but does anything change for you in regards to Stefan digs? And we spent a lot of time talking about, you know, Devante Adams and where he falls with leaving the Packers,

going to the Raiders, Tyreek, Tyreek Hill, leaving the chiefs, going to the dolphins and kind of his potential failures. And, you know, the guys that have gotten pushed up, Diggs is part of that, I think. At least he is for me.

But you have Cooper Cup, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, probably going to be the consensus top three wide receivers. Where does Diggs fall for each of you? Heath, I'll start with you. He is right in that six or seven range. I did move Tyreek Hill behind him. I did not move Devontae Adams behind him in full PPR. So I think there's a little bit of a bounce back coming for Diggs compared,

like if you look at the last two years, it'd be somewhere in between those, but a good solid number one wide receiver. Agree 100%. I think that he was already top 10 in targets per game last year, finished 10th in PPR points per game. A little disappointing. I think we were expecting Diggs to be a little bit better than that.

Can he get much better than that in 2022? We're expecting Gabriel Davis to take a step forward. We know the Bills' offense will change to some degree, some way, with Brian Dable gone, Ken Dorsey now calling the plays, shout out Miami Hurricane. I think that he's still going to be the number one option. I think you're still going to see Josh Allen lean on him a bunch. You're going to draft him right around where Heath said,

fifth or sixth off the wide receiver board, and he'll finish somewhere between first and tenth. Yeah, I think the plus, if it stands right now, they're receiving core, losing Cole Beasley, losing Emmanuel Sanders. Even if Gabriel Davis takes a step forward, I think this is a boost for Diggs because I don't think Jameson Crowder comes in

and necessarily steals a ton of targets. I think he's actually going to see maybe a few more targets go back in his direction like we saw two years ago when he first joined Buffalo and the rapport is there. And in comparing him to Adams and Hill for me, it's the rapport. You know, he – and I know Adams and Derek Carr go back to their days at Fresno State, but he's the one that's staying with his quarterback, you know. So I think all three of these guys are kind of in the same conversation with C.D. Lamb

and A.J. Brown and Deebo Samuel, maybe Keenan Allen, you know, healthy Chris Godwin. They're all going to be, I think, kind of bunched up at the receiver spot. But Diggs feels like he has at least one more year, hopefully a couple, but one more year he's going to be 29 of still elite-level production. So for me, he's fourth after that trio that I mentioned of Kup, Jefferson, and Jamar Chase. Some more receiver news that could certainly impact how we draft these players. But WIP in Philadelphia, one of their guys there, Howard Eskin,

reports that the Jets were willing to offer the number 10 overall pick in this upcoming NFL draft to the Seahawks in exchange for DK Metcalf, but according to the report, Seattle, quote, shut it right down. So there was talk at the NFL owners' meetings. Pete Carroll was asked about is he willing to extend the contract for DK Metcalf because he's 24, his rookie deal is going to expire after the season, and are they going to start the contract extension now? And he said, we intend to keep him.

Well, at the NFL Combine, when asked about Russell Wilson, he said, we intend to keep him. So everybody obviously speculating that knowing Pete Carroll and the Seahawks and the state of their franchise right now, are they going to get whatever they can for DK Metcalf? And if I'm looking to rebuild my roster, the number 10 overall pick, to avoid paying DK Metcalf would probably be something smart. So this report seems a little weird that they wouldn't at least consider it as opposed to, quote, shutting it down.

So, Dave, are we expecting a DK Metcalf trade, you know, maybe NFL draft night prior to that? I know we've talked about maybe Tyler Lockett being the one on the move because he's 29 and, you know, doesn't make a lot of sense to stay on the roster. So is there going to be a Seattle wide receiver get traded between now and let's say the start of the summer? I think there's a better chance that it is Lockett rather than DK Metcalf. I think Metcalf is young. I think he's got a bright future. I think he's a unique body type.

And I think the Seahawks want to keep him around. I think if they're willing to pay him and if they love him, then they have no reason to trade him unless somebody's going to offer a better deal than what the Chiefs got for Tyreek or what the Packers got for Devonta Adams. And I don't know if anybody's offering five picks for DK Metcalf or anything close to that. Lockett should be the one that they put on the block and see if they get any feelers for. I don't know if Philadelphia is the right team for Lockett because they've already got Devonta Smith,

and Lockett is kind of the same type of wide receiver and that's why you know when when you talk about Green Bay and you know just get another receiver to Green Bay Lockett makes a ton of sense for Green Bay Packers have draft capital they can use to move to get him he'd go to a contender he'd have a chance to to play in a Super Bowl again and uh and the Seahawks would get some extra draft pick compensation they already have a lot they could certainly use as much as they can get since they're they seem to be rebuilding following the the deals of the rust trade and then getting rid of bobby wagner but the other side of this this all makes me a little nervous about elijah moore the fact that the jets were trying to trade for tyree kill trying to trade for dk metcalf that there's all kinds of smoke

around them taking a wide receiver at 10. This is a team that's already, I mean, last year, this same group of people chose to give $37 million to Corey Davis, and they're going to pay him $14 million this year, whether they want to or not. They just gave $7 million this year to Braxton Burritos, presumably as their slot wide receiver. I don't understand why they're so intent on going at another wide receiver this year. It seems like they have other weaknesses, but if they are, I don't think Elijah Moore

is going to be the breakout that we would all like for him to be. I totally agree. You know, it's very, it's very nerve wracking right now because you're seeing a lot of, like you said, mostly the draft capital, you know, so I saw one mock draft that Drake London going to the Jets. You know, you can see any number of receivers. I saw another one today. I think it was on NFL Network that they had James Drake London going to the Jets. You can see any number of receivers. I saw another one today. I think it was on NFL Network that they had Jameson Williams going to the Jets.

So there's any number of scenarios here where the Jets are trying to upgrade their receiving core. And I don't think Braxton Berrios is necessarily the problem because he does so much of them on special teams. So paying him was a big part of that. But Corey Davis obviously is not long for the team. This is probably going to be his last season with the Jets. And maybe they're concerned about Elijah Moore staying healthy because last year he struggled to stay on the field and so maybe it's okay he's a very good player he's going to be a big piece of what we do but can we rely on him for 17 plus or 17 games you know and and we've seen this you know time and time again it's kind of the formula for

how you make you know your young quarterback better you put weapons around him and hopefully have him succeed and they've tried to do that already with their offensive line. So now it's a matter of what you do on the, you know, the perimeter and, and making this guy better. They bring in two tight ends, you know, and CJ Uzama and Tyler Conklin. So they've tried to address that position. So I wouldn't be surprised if that's the route that they go, but I agree with you, Heath. It's depending on who they get, you know, rookie may not be so much of a problem for Elijah Moore, but if they do go get a splashy type of player, you know, maybe a Brandon Cooks, who's certainly been rumored, you know, to be traded or is it Tyler Lockett or is it, you know, maybe they do work out a deal to get DK Metcalf. So it's interesting there. I just want

to, before we move on, Heath, in terms of startup dynasty leagues, knowing that DK Metcalf status is a little shaky, not just because of his potential trade scenario, but also his quarterback situation. How are you approaching DK Metcalf from a future standpoint now for, you know, startup dynasty weeks. In my March update, which was after the Wilson trade, he was wide receiver eight, which is the lowest he's been in the last year. And maybe the lowest he's been since the start of his rookie year.

Now he's been between five and eight, all of those times, but I, I feel better. Like I had him ahead of AJ Brown. I'd rather have AJ Brown right now. I think i'd rather have a.j brown right now i think i'd rather have t higgins right now he's right there with higgins and waddle for me at the low end number one wide receiver probably around two pick and we're hearing also trade rumors about a.j brown getting shut down as well because the titans i just doesn't make sense you know tyree killed 29 okay you got a huge you know return for him makes sense you don't have to pay him davante. Makes sense. You don't have to pay him. Devontae Adams, 29.

Same situation. Don't have to pay him. These guys are so young. They're 24. It's hard to get rid of these guys, especially that you have to pay them potentially, but at least you have their service for the next several years, and then they can hopefully get another big contract as well. It's just going to be this wide receiver market over the next couple years,

depending on how this year goes for Adams, for Hill, for Steph Stefan Diggs, older wide receivers, two of them switching teams. If the quarterbacks that they left still have success, the team's going to be a little gun shy about paying these wide receivers to this same level. So it'll be very interesting to see how this year goes. All right. Next week's schedule is going to be a lot of fun. Again, Adam's not going to be here. He's taking some time off, some much needed time off for him, a little vacation for him as well. So Monday, we're going to be talking about bounce back candidates. So the flip side of the bus, the guys maybe who were a bus last year, how they will perform in 2022 rebound in terms of some down performances

and getting back to the level that we like. Tuesday will be dynasty quarterback and running back ranking. So a little bit more of the dynasty conversation. We know you guys love that this time of year. And then Thursday, we'll get into running backs with new coaches, new systems. So some of the guys who potentially have changed teams or have gotten some updated coaching staffs. So we'll get into those guys as well. But today is all about bus guys that we're most likely avoiding in drafts. So, you know, we'll still draft them at the right cost.

But we're not going to spend what might be the ADP right now or certainly what we expect the ADP to be. So let's just bounce back and forth a little bit. You know, so it's not just all Dave's list, all Heath's list. So we'll start with Dave's list first. So first guy we got here is Ezekiel Elliott last year. It was,

and this is where the bus conversation gets a little cloudy because his overall season, his production was good. Finished. I believe it was a top 10 running back. It was 16th in PPR points per game. Okay. So top,

top 20 running back was a bus based on how hePR points per game. Okay, so top 20 running back. Was a bust based on how he finished last year. So is he a bust again? And I think that's the question of where he will get drafted. So right now his ADP is as number 22 running back off the board, 46th overall, so going around four. And this is the NFC ADP following the Tyreek Hill trade. So is he a bust as the 22nd running back off the board in round 40?

Not as much as he would be if he were higher than that, obviously. I don't think he's got a great shot to finish as a top 15 fantasy running back again. I'm worried about him holding up. I'm worried about Tony Pollard taking more work away from him. We talked about that earlier in the week. And I think he's 27 years old. It feels like he's an old 27 because he's been around a long time. Under the top 15 in PPR points per game each of the last two years, it makes me nervous

to trust him just in general knowing that there's a younger back behind him who could end up getting more work. What happens if the touchdowns dry up? What happens if Dak Prescott gets more of the offense put on his shoulders this year? I feel like I'm going to be out on Ezekiel Elliott. And the only way I'd be okay with him is if he just, I'm doing a draft with nine other me's or 11 other me's, and we all just think that Ezekiel is going to just peter out.

And if that's the case, then I'll find him in round five, and I would hold my nose and take the chance on him then. I fully understand the concern. I just think if he's, like in Fantasy Pro's consensus rankings, he's 20th. NFC ADP, he's 22nd. If he's in that range, then I think there's every bit as much upside as there is downside, and I'm going to be fine.

I'd love him in round four. Yeah, I think if it's in the first three rounds, it's a little bit concerning. But we get to round four and Ezekiel is still sitting there. It's hard to overlook what he still can be because he did play through the knee injury. So maybe that was a big problem for his production. He went 10 games in a row with 55 rushing yards or less.

That's awful. He was touchdown dependent, but now he's losing some offensive linemen. Lyle Collins and Connor Williams are both gone. So a little revamp situation there. The one thing that could be interesting, and you mentioned this, Dave, I think in regards to the Brandon Cooks rumors we were talking about before the show started, that they

may be looking at Brandon Cooks, the Cowboys. They're one of the teams, yep. But we know Dallas three seasons ago, three drafts ago, they surprised us by taking CeeDee Lamb in the first round. We didn't expect that to happen. They're down to Mark Cooper. They bring back Michael Gallup. They lose Sed Wilson, so they might be in the receiver market. But what if they don't bring in anybody else?

And they also brought in James Washington. Zeke was a big part of the passing game last year, and it was when Gallup went down in the initial injury when he had the calf problem. So can he be more of a factor in the passing game? And that sort of sustains him in PPR and keeps him in that top 15 caliber range uh so in round four you know it might not be a bad gamble but I do agree if he's in the first three rounds hard to justify drafting there uh round four though does feel a little bit like a bargain so we'll see where his ADP ends up settling all right Heath this one's interesting because you have Dalvin Cook as a bust um I know age is a factor 27 years

old injuries are a factor it's been a problem for him. Right now going as the seventh running back off the board, 11th overall based on the NFC ADP. That's too rich for you. And that's closer. Again, the way I based it, he was at running back five, I think the sixth pick off the board. I think he's more of a bust at that cost, but still at seven, I have concerns.

And the obvious ones are the age and the injury history, but there's a lot of running backs that have age and injury history concerns that are probably going to get drafted in round one. What also worries me is that last year was his worst as a pass catcher in the NFL, both in terms of volume, 2.6 catches per game, a career low, 17.2 receiving yards per game, a career low, and in terms of efficiency, 6.6 yards per catch, 4.6 yards per target, both career lows. That worries me because Kevin O'Connell's offense has not generally been as running back centric in the passing game or Sean McVay's offense, if you want to say that, as Minnesota's has been. It's been more focused on the wide receivers and the tight ends, and they just happen to have maybe the best wide receiver in football in Justin Jefferson, who I think could slide right into that Cooper Cup type volume.

So I don't know that we really have a very good hope for dalvin cook to be a 50 catch guy again he's only done that once and i don't know that he's going to see the volume per game that he has seen in the past as you can see adam azer for those of you watching us on youtube can't get away uh loves my my pullover here it's on the jacket adam so learn some fashion um but is he on vacation or not if he's just sitting around watching he might as well jump in he says he's just popping and say hello so he misses us that much I don't know I can't get away on his vacation I need to confess something because this has happened to me like three times in the last week every time I say Kevin O'Connell's name as the coach of the Vikings I think oh no

that was this the quarterback and then I remember that it's the same guy it's the same guy yes uh yes Tom Brady's former backup. He's been in the league that long, or been around that long. Tom Brady, yes. Dave, in terms of Dalvin Cook, so here's the guys that are going around him. You tell me if you like Dalvin Cook better or worse than these guys. So Joe Mixon, better or worse than Dalvin Cook?

Mixon. I'll take Mixon with the offensive line upgrade. You'll take Mixon over Cook. Okay, I'll still take Dalvin Cook. DeAndre Swift or Dalvin Cook? I currently have Cook two spots ahead of Swift in PPR. Javante Williams or Dalvin Cook? Cook over Javante.

Okay, and I'm sure Heath, maybe outside of Javante, have him ahead of those guys, or behind those guys, excuse me. Yeah, I actually have, I think, Javante ahead of him right now, but if the seemingly inevitable Melvin Gordon return happens, then I think you'd have to reevaluate that. The one thing that's going to be interesting for me with Dalvin Cook, and I do think he's getting to the point where we've got to be worried because of his age, but this offense, I think,

is going to be dramatically better than we've seen. Mike Zimmer, I think, was just holding things back. I think he'll have more touchdown opportunities because they'll be moving the ball up and down the field a little bit more. His involvement in the passing game, that's something that I think we've got to be a little bit concerned be moving the ball up and down the field a little bit more. His involvement in the passing game, that's something that I think we've got to be a little bit concerned about because you're right, if the system carries over, same type of offense that he runs that the Rams were running,

is he going to be north of 50 catches? I think right around 50 if he plays 17 games, but it's always a concern as well. But I will say this, though. If you're concerned about Dalvin Cook, make sure you're prioritizing Alexander Madison because if Cook does miss any time, we've seen Madison clearly step up, especially when he's playing the Lions, be a superstar.

But this offense, I think, is going to be the best version that we've seen in the Kirk Cousins era, certainly the last two years with Justin Jefferson, which says a lot because he could have, like you said, that Cooper Cup type of season where he's just getting peppered with targets. I think Adam Thielen is still going to have another good season. K.J. Osborne should be on your list, or Smith should be on your list. This offense is going to be a lot of fun in Minnesota.

So I'm excited about that. So I'm still excited about Dalvin Cook this season. So I would not put him in the bus category, but I understand your concerns. Dave, this guy feels like an obvious bust. I'm with you on this one though. Cordero Patterson, clearly not going to do what he did last year, which was just amazing and was great for fantasy minus the last four games of the season. So if he got you to the fantasy playoffs, he didn't deliver in the fantasy playoffs, but otherwise he was a savior for a lot of people over a thousand total yards over 10 touchdowns. We don't know what the Falcons plan to do with him this upcoming season. If he's going to be in the backfield,

it's going to be a wide receiver right now. The NFC ADP is 36 at running back 100th overall. Is that a bargain though? If he's going that late, I don't think there's much harm in taking him that late, but I'm very concerned about him being able to keep up what he did last year. I can trace back the failures that he had on the field to the ankle sprain that he had and that he tried to play through,

and he just wasn't anywhere near as effective. But I don't believe that a guy his age who broke out in what his ninth nfl season something like that is going to be able to keep generating numbers like he has been when the offense i i think it's going to change the way that they i think they're going to change the way they play with mario to under center and unless patterson is like full-time running back and like in great shape and like totally over the ankle and doesn't show any signs of wearing down i i think he's going to be an absolute bus i don't think he'll be anywhere near as effective as what he of what was what he did last year so it is an easy one to get away from that's somebody that i'm probably not going to draft until double digit round

territory he's stepping to ar into Arthur Smith's head, and how would you use Cordero Patterson this year, knowing that right now you're down Calvin Ridley, you're down Russell Gage, you're receiving cores of disaster, Kyle Pitts can only do so much, and you have a new quarterback. Your running back situation also is a mess too. So where are you playing Cordero Patterson? I hated Cordero Patterson before he came back to the Falcons because I really didn't believe that anyone would give him a chance.

And I now I look at the Falcons roster and their top three wide receivers are Olamide Zaccheaus, Demir Bird and Auden Tate. He's probably their second best pass catcher and their best running back. So if I was Arthur Smith, I would use him just like I did last year. And if I get half a season out of him at RB 36 as a starting fantasy running back, then that's fantastic. I think he's probably going to catch 50, 60 passes the way this team's currently. Now they have early draft picks. They're looking at wide receivers and quarterbacks with that eighth overall pick. Something could change, but their skill positions

are the worst in football i don't i don't think it's close yeah besides what's that aside from tight end yes besides their tight end and so i i think as things are structured right now it's just absolutely and i think that's a worthwhile thing i don't think cordero patterson's gonna hang out on for 16 or 17 games as good as he was the first 10 last year. But how many games of a top 15 running back does it take to justify pick 100? Not very many. Yeah, it's great value. It's absolutely great value. I think again, you know, when you're talking about guys like Zeke and guys like Patterson, if you're drafting them to replicate the performance, either for Zeke, what he's done over the last several seasons or for Patterson, what he did last year, then you're probably looking at it as a bust, but the value right now feels pretty good. Uh, but I do think,

you know, they fall into this category just because of some of the expectations. So for Patterson last year at a career high, 153 carries 618 yards and six touchdowns. And he tied his career high with 52 catches, 548 yards and five touchdowns. That was only on on 69 targets so a lot of that was short area passes because of where he was lining up but we'll see they may need him to play on the outside a little bit more i think if he's lining up more as a receiver playing more as a receiver this is this is definitely too soon if he's playing more running back position then this feels like good value so it's just a matter of i think of how the falcons are going to use them and this is clearly a team you got to keep an eye on with what happens in the nfl draft all right next guy guy for you, Heath, is Cam Akers.

So last year came back after the Achilles injury that he suffered in late July. Miraculous to even see him on the field and the way that he was able to work for the Rams and helping them win the Super Bowl. But right now he's going based on the NFC ADP. 13th overall, 13th running back, excuse me, 26th overall. So really early into the third round.

Is that still too soon for you? That's too soon for me. 13th overall, 13th running back, excuse me, 26th overall. So really early into the third round. Is that still too soon for you? That's too soon for me. I mean, it was miraculous that he came back and I'm hopeful that that's like the beginning of something. And we see James Robinson at training camp and all of a sudden the Achilles is the ACL and we don't have to worry about it as much that that's going to happen at some point in the future. Hopefully it's now.

But I am just concerned that we've not yet seen Cam Akers be Cam Akers. And really, in two seasons, we've seen six games of the Cam Akers that would justify a round two or type pick. And that guy was worth a round one pick. I'm a little worried that Henderson will have a bigger role in the passing game than he will. And I'm a little worried that the Rams chop things up just a little bit more because of the injuries that he's gone through. But they didn't do that at the end of last year until they got to the Super Bowl because I think he was so ineffective coming off of that Achilles.

I got to see it to believe it, man. I got to see him look good, look explosive, and play a lot better than what we saw in the playoffs. He had a run of zero or negative yards in 29.9% of his carries. So nearly a third of his carries went nowhere. Literally, that's a problem. I just, I, I, I gotta see it. I gotta see footage from training camp. I got, I'd love to see a preseason game. I'm pretty sure I'm not because the Rams are one of those teams that scoff at preseason games and they'll just play their backups. I think you'll see cam makers, uh, go high in drafts on the thought of, all right, the Rams are going to be one of those teams that leans on one running back.'s their history i don't i don't know if they're gonna because of what he said they didn't do it toward the end of the year because game makers were so ineffective i also wouldn't be surprised if they added a running back with

a draft pick they still have some draft picks they just don't have high draft picks and so they could add somebody that they believe fits their scheme and that player could come in and compete for playing time and they still have daryl henderson on top of that so i i don't think cam acres is going to be the guy that leads this team uh by a large margin in carries or maybe even any major running back metric heath i think that we're absolutely looking at a very difficult time ahead for Cam Akers. So I agree with you. I think he's a humongous bust. What I would want to know is

what happens to Robert Woods and Robert Woods now going to Tennessee. And he's a bust for me. I think you could see Robert Woods really struggle. And I'm going to tell you about that right after this ad break. Go to it. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to powers your scale with no preset spending limit, more cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days. And the ability to reach further with access to over 1,400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum.

That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. All right, we're back. Fantasy Football Today on YouTube and in your ears. Heath Cummings, Dave Richard with you. Jamie Eisenberg will join us shortly. Robert Woods is a bust for me, Heath.

And I think he's kind of an obvious one. Got hurt last year, tore the ACL. Really wasn't amazing before he tore the ACL. And now he's going from a team that was very pass-heavy with a great quarterback where he had a significant role to Tennessee, which is typically one of the teams in the league that is like 50-50 pass-run, Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, and he's decidedly the No. 2 wide receiver there.

I can't get excited about drafting Robert Woods. Can you talk me out of it, or are you with me on this one? Is he a double-digit round pick? I think it's obvious from what we've seen in the first three busts that you did a better job of choosing busts than I did because you chose players that the industry and the consensus ADP have already declared busts. Robert Woods has an ADP of 117th overall at the end of the 10th round. You can't actually be a bust in the 10th round, I don't think. Unless he literally does nothing. You draft him and he just absolutely plays,

but he gets four targets per game and you keep him on your bench for a few more weeks and you go, this guy, it's over for him. And you cut him and you'll waste the pick. And it's still a double digit round. And that's possible. I think I have him ranked very, very close to this.

I think I've got him wide receiver 46 or 47. I think the ADP is just about spot on. If he falls past this, I'm probably drafting him. If he goes earlier than this, I'm probably not. I don't know what to expect from Woods coming off this. I worry about injuries a little bit more for a player his age. But I do think there's a little bit of upside in that the guy he's there with, A.J. Brown, has had very little success at staying healthy. And if there's a stretch, well, first off, if Woods is back to his old self

and there's a stretch without Brown, he could be a fantasy contributor. But I think this is about right. Wide receiver four, round 10. I like it. Yeah, I'd rather wait till after round 10. I'm sure someone will see the name and remember the game and they will take him before the double-digit rounds. And I'll be happy that they do because i don't think he will return that kind

of value going to a new team coming off a torn acl unlikely to get maybe even 800 yards this year i hate to say it but that's where we're at with robert woods being on the tennessee titans heath you did play the bus game the right way because you basically said that I'm Mr. Obvious with my bus and maybe I am a little bit right. St. Brown and then Zeke and Cordell Patterson and Robert Woods. Okay, fine. I don't mind. It's April.

It's early April. We got time to be bold later on, but you don't think like that. You're going bold now and you're doing it with Debo Samuel. You put Debo on the bus list last year. He was amazing for fantasy. This year, he's going off the board in NFC drafts, 14th overall, wide receiver five, and you say it's too soon. Yeah, I guess I've got the 11th pick, the 14th pick, the 22nd pick, and the number four quarterback as my busts. In other words, the consensus does not agree with me

at all. Complete opposite direction, and I does not agree with me at all, complete opposite direction. And I don't know if that's a good thing, but I just, and it it's a little bit, the Joe burrow thing, like he averaged 18.2 yards per catch and scored eight touchdowns on like 50 carries. He's not going to repeat that efficiency. I feel highly confident that I also think with that role, he is a bigger injury risk than almost any of the other wide receivers that are under 30. And I think the play of Trey Lance at quarterback is a very big risk factor for his receiving profile. I would still draft Debo as a borderline number one, somewhere around that wide receiver 12 13 ish range um and i'd still take him probably

end of round three but he's not getting there i mean he's the 14th pick overall right now he's closer to the first round than he is to the third crazy to see a wide receiver average less than five catches per game and still finish top three in PPR points per game. And the reason for it was because of what Debo Samuel did as a rusher. 59 attempts, 365 yards, eight touches. He had six touchdown catches and eight rushing touchdowns last year. It's crazy. And I have a hard time. I agree with agree with you have a hard time believing that he can get that type of work and that type of hyper efficiency running the football when you've got a running quarterback taking over and you've got a pretty consistent run game i know we can't pin

it to one guy in that backfield but through the years san francisco's done a pretty good job of running the football it would have to take a transition of Debo becoming way more of a running back than a wide receiver for him to fulfill this type of upside to go as the top five receiver in fantasy drafts. He was 24th in targets per game last year. Just crazy year. It's easy to bank against him. I completely agree. Debo Samuel's a bust. I just, I want to keep going with my totally off the radar bus picks and go to the Las Vegas Raiders where Hunter Renfro is the 30th receiver off the board. And Darren Waller is the fifth tight end off the board. I don't disagree with Waller being the fifth tight end off the board. I just disagree with where he's going, which is in

that round five range. I'd like to wait if I could on Darren Waller. I'm worried about both of these guys getting the same type of target volume that they got last year, particularly after Henry rugs left the Raiders and he didn't leave the Raiders. The Raiders kicked his ass to the curb. But when he was gone, Derek Carr only had so many places to go with the football and Darren Waller wasn't there for a big chunk of that. that's what helped make Hunter Renfro amazing I don't want to take anything

away from them talent wise Waller is a talent great Renfro is a slot receiver great and we know how slot receivers are in a Josh McDaniels offense we've seen it for over a decade in New England with guys like Julian Edelman and Wes Welker, and most recently, Jacoby Myers getting that role. But I just think that there is going to be a sponge on the hands of Devontae Adams. DeAndre Adams? Wow. Devontae Adams, and he's just going to soak up those targets. I think he's a candidate for over 150 targets. I think he will get throws much like he did in Green Bay.

I don't know if the quality will be as good, but the number, the volume will be there, and that just takes away from everybody else. Waller, a decent touchdown guy as far as tight ends go. That's what keeps him in the top five for me. Renfro, I worry about being in the Sterling Shepard range that we talked about earlier this week, where he's 10, 12 PPR points per week. That's a good bench receiver, and maybe that's where you're drafting him at when you get to 74th overall on draft day. But if you're drafting him as wide receiver 30,

that means you think he's going to be a number three receiver in PPR. And I don't see that happening for him. And I think Waller's upside is just totally capped off, Heath. Yeah, I'm going to agree with one and dispute one. So Hunter Renfro, I think, is a great call. He's my wide receiver 44. I actually have Sterling Shepard ahead of him, and I wouldn't take him until the 8-9 turn. 100% agree with Hunter Renfro. I think part of the reason why is because I disagree with you on Darren Waller. I think there is enough room for Devontae Adams and Darren Waller to coexist and both be elite. Darren Waller in round five, I absolutely love. I prefer Waller to Kyle Pitts now that Pitts has Mariota. And so he's a top three tight end for me right there with Kittle. I don't know which one I like

better, third or fourth. I wouldn't take either of them in round three like we were at the number three tight end last year, but I do like both of them in round four and i think this value in round five is just maybe people overreacting a little bit to the devante adams acquisition and so you think that that's actually that could prove to be a really good value for waller what did you project for him in terms of targets catches and yards uh let's see 119 bring that up i i know i'm asking you to go find your spreadsheet it's right here 119 targets 86 catches 1023 yards wow okay ah goodness i'd really love to dig into that spreadsheet and see if maybe you could just tell me this how many how many pass attempts per game for Derek Carr yeah I can tell you total pass attempts and then you're

gonna have to do some math on your own but I've got my I got my calculator let's go we're gonna nerd out 569 which I believe would put him at about don't tell me I believe that put him at about 33 and a half yeah yeah you had to use a calculator to figure that out there's no way you went to your head that is my superpower is doing math like that in my head it's completely useless most of the time except for the fact that i don't have to push a couple buttons but no that's that's what i do um so yeah i would have said your superpower is smoking meats, but you do you. And I have Adams at not as many targets as he had in the past, but I'm at 154 targets.

That's still a decent amount. You can tell me how many that is per game because you're a math genius. It's nine. Yeah, nice job, Mensah. Thanks. Okay. But basically, I'm just poo-pooing hunter renfro i think i i think if renfro is really consolidated in the offense and just isn't a factor then i think your projections have shot to being accurate i just i i think that i waller could be big in the

red zone defenses are gonna have to make a choice who do you who do you shift the safety toward do you do it toward davante adams do you do it toward darren waller and i i think that there will be some teams that shifted toward adams and that's gonna leave waller wide open i didn't ask you how many touchdowns you gave him but nine would not surprise me for darren waller i just don't know about the 80 catches i've only got him with five okay so i i could see him having a huge number, a big number of touchdowns. And a tight end that did catch nine touchdowns last year,

I believe, is our final bust of the day, and it's Dawson Knox out in Buffalo. Now, the Bills, we already talked about this. They said bye-bye to Emmanuel Sanders. They said bye-bye to Cole Beasley. They bring in Jamison Crowder, and they also bring in OJ Howard. It's a name that comes and goes on this podcast. I know that's an Adam Azer favorite, and now he's in Buffalo. Is that acquisition, OJ Howard going to Buffalo,

the reason why you're going to stay away from Dawson Knox? I had Knox below tight end 11 before that acquisition, but that acquisition certainly didn't help because I think OJ Howard's going to be a force in the red zone for the bills and gives them more options. I wonder if the thing is that people see Cole Beasley leave and see Jamison Crowder enter and don't see that as a near one-to-one swap because I do. I don't think there's an enormous difference between Cole Beasley and Jamison Crowder. And so I expect Crowder to see similar target share, if maybe not quite as much as

Beasley. His was always up and down. And I think Gabriel Davis mostly just takes over what Emmanuel Sanders left behind. I don't necessarily think there's a bigger tight end pie. And the pie wasn't very big last year. Dawson Knox averaged 39 receiving yards per game he was afc east robert tunyon um or pat fryer um like those guys are the guys i'm always lower on i i prefer targets catches and yards to last year's touchdowns of course and he only had the 71 targets in 15 games so even if he were to take a step forward he could still fall below 90 targets and i think that that number might be too high to even say for i don't know if 71 is a fair number for dawson knox this coming year

because of the additions they made i agree with you on crowder for beasley it seems about even the difference being that crowder is going to have to learn Josh Allen, whereas Beasley definitely knew him, and there were definitely games last year when Josh Allen push comes to shove. He knows he's got to find a reliable receiver, and he knows Stephon Diggs is going to draw coverage downfield. Beasley was his guy. Is that guy this year going to be Jamison Crowder, or could it be Dawson Knox? Because he does have experience with Dawson Knox.

Now, I don't have him as a top 12 tight end. I even know a fan better than Dawson Knox, but I do think there is some room for Knox to be a streamer. Maybe if you like the matchup in week one, you can target Dawson Knox with one of your last picks, and he could be a streamer, but I also don't think that he should be somebody who's getting taken at where the ADP is,

which is round 10, 114th overall, and a top 12 tight end off the board. I don't see that happening. Heath, I agree with you. And Heath, you are the one who calculates the numbers. You are the projector for the Fantasy Football Today crew. I'll finish with this. What are your tight end numbers for Knox and OJ Howard?

This is a kind of a blind spot of the projections process, I think, because it's uncertainty about how those two are going to coexist. And so I split the baby a little bit and it just drops both of them. So like, I've got 98 targets for the tight ends in Buffalo this year. 55 of them going to Dawson Knox, 43 to O.J. Howard. If that's the case, then Knox is going to be absolutely useless.

And so will Howard. Except for the weeks that they happen to score touchdowns, which will happen. But I don't know who will win. We're not going to know. Now, if Howard's, but I don't know. We just win. Right. Yeah. So now if Howard's not as big a factor as I think he's going to be, then Knox could get back into that 70 range. But you said you weren't sure he'd get 71. I haven't projected for fewer than 71.

Exactly. And I think that OJ Howard going there as part of that, thank you for bearing your soul. You admitted on the podcast that you've got a blind spot. And then you said split the baby. I don't know what that means. do too know what that i've never split a baby in my life well we'll talk about it off air okay that's good next week we're back podcasts three of them next week plus emergency podcasts when necessary bounce back candidates start thinking about it over the weekend guys who are the players that you think are going to bounce back in 2022 there was a player that i was ready to make the case for as a bust and then i did my research and now i think he's going to be

a bounce back candidate here's a hint he changed teams this offseason think you know who it is tweet it at me at dave rich. Or tweet your fantasy questions, your dynasty questions, at Heath Cummings SR. Don't forget about Jamie Eisenberg, at Jamie Eisenberg on Twitter. Don't even forget about our producer, Ben Schrager, at Ben Schrag on Twitter. And don't forget about Adam.

Maybe you should forget about Adam. Forget about Adam. Alright, for Schrager, for Jamie, for Heath, I'm Dave. Thanks for coming out.