Fantasy Football Today - Early Busts! Montgomery, Rodgers, Julio and More (03/02 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: March 2, 2021

David Montgomery won't have favorable matchups every week, Aaron Rodgers can't repeat his TD rate and Chris Carson may not be a lead RB anymore. These are just a few of the early busts we'll discuss. First, let's see what our listeners have to say (2:15)! Who do you think will be a 2021 bust? ... Jamey and Heath give their biggest early busts! For Jamey it's David Montgomery (11:30). For Heath, it's a couple of Year 2 RBs (13:40). Also, find out why the guys disagree on the outlooks for Dallas Goedert (23:30) and Tyler Lockett (26:00) ... News and notes (32:00) as J.J. Watt is on the Cardinals! Who will win the NFC West? And of course we have a lot more busts to discuss including Aaron Rodgers (35:40), Will Fuller (42:40), Odell Beckham (46:00), Julio Jones (50:30) and Chris Carson (53:00) ... Your emails at [e-mail] Subscribe to the FFT in 5 podcast on Apple, Spotify, Google, or wherever you listen to FFT. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @CTowersCBS, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Want winning picks each morning in under 10 minutes? Subscribe to 'The Early Edge: A Daily SportsLine Betting Podcast' on Apple, Spotify, Stitcher or wherever else you listen to podcasts. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Let's get some early bus candidates for 2021, not only from Jamie and Heath today, but also from our listeners. Some very interesting suggestions. And you know, a lot of people love year two running backs,

but Heath Cummings has two of them on his early bus list. I'm Adam Azer with Heath and Jamie, Ben Schrager here as well. And your email is fantasyfootballatcbsi.com and your tweets. What's up? What's going on, Heath? Got a little hate for the year two running backs.

A couple of them anyway. Man, I was all ready. I thought you were going to say, how was your weekend? It's Tuesday. I was going to tell you that on Saturday, I fired up my new smoker. Nice.

And smoked 110 wings. Oh. And still had room on the smoker for more wings that's great it was fantastic and today is tuesday and all the wings are gone how many do you think you ate of the 110 i don't know probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 36. Okay. I've got lots of children. Like a third round pick, 36. I like how you do everything in increments of 12.

It's very fantasy football of you. What kind of wings? I did five different flavors. Just the wood. Original, hot, barbecue, and garlic sriracha. Jamie, what would be your pick of those five? Barbecue.

Sorry, dude, I'm taking those. You can have next up. Yeah, but you would only eat like three anyway. No, that's ridiculous. The other thing is that just the wood don't have any seasoning at all on them they just have this the smoke so you can put barbecue sauce on those as well okay i'm not really interested in those uh let's see what the listeners said i want to start with the listeners okay it's always about what dave and jamie and heath and chris have to say but what do the listeners have to say i said who are your early bus candidates in 2021 and almost

all of the responses so far have been running backs. So that tells you something. And a lot of them were Alvin Kamara. And you guys did not have Alvin Kamara. But the thought, we don't know about Drew Brees right now. He hasn't retired yet. But, you know, Robert said Kamara, when his catches dropped to 50 without Drew Brees. And, you know, in the four games that Kamara played with Taysom Hill at starting quarterback, he was on pace for 40 catches. He had seven of his 10 catches in one game, the only game they lost in that stretch. That tells you something as well.

But you guys did not have Alvin Kamara. Do you still consider Alvin Kamara a top four pick? Tell me, Jamie, you get the first word here, but the listeners are a little concerned about Alvin Kamara without Drew Brees. I can certainly see that. And again, we don't know if it's going to be Taysom Hill. Is it going to be Jameis Winston? it going to be Russell Wilson you know for uh his trade uh uh

non-demands of of where he wants to go um so you know right now if it's Taysom Hill there should be some some cause for concern but to the point where I'm not taking him the first five picks I'm not there yet with Alvin Kamara just the extended pause I'm waiting for you to answer that as well yeah good like the the email says without Drew Brees and I would just say for me it's not without Drew Brees it's only with Taysom Hill if we go into the season and they didn't get Jameis back and it's quite clear that Taysom Hill, the plan is to start him for 16 games, then yeah, Alvin Camara would be outside of my top five picks. But for right now, there's still enough possibility that either Breeze or Winston returns or they make a trade that he's still in the top five. Joe says this is going to be the year that Derrick Henry slows down, except Joe didn't speak all over himself when he typed it.

This is going to be the year that Derrick Henry slows down. Jamie's laughing. You're not doing that many podcasts this time of year. You don't have to just steal things from last year and paste them into the notes for this year. Tell that to the listeners. This is Joe's suggestion. Yeah, I went down this road last year.

Yeah, I'm not going to do it again. He's too good. The only thing I guess you could look at is changing coordinator. Does that hurt him? Is Brian Downing going to be that much different than what Arthur Smith was? Is the system going to change? You know, he's coming from the same team. He's being promoted from tight ends coach.

It's just hard. You know, I think it's just the only thing with Henry right now you have to worry about is maybe the workload now starts to catch up with him. But to avoid him, I don't think you do it. Well, is he going to be is the new offensive coordinator going to be downing his fantasy value? Yes, that's the timing in 2017 he was the offensive coordinator for the raiders and he had a 31 year old marshall lynch that season he averaged 4.3 yards per carry he ran for about 800 yards i don't think there's

any comparison to make between what marshall lynch was then and what derrick henry is now all right david mendelsohn says Ezekiel Elliott will be a bust. It's the end of the line. Might as well cleanse your hands now. I think that'll be a popular take probably. Not that his ADP is going to come out of the first round, but I have already seen drafts where he wasn't drafted in the first round. I still think it's more likely that with Dak and with the offensive line,

even 80% of what it was before last year, Elliot bounces back nicely and has a good year. Cool. All right. Lewis says, Josh Jacobs will be a bust, have to draft him high, but won't give you the return you should get from such a high pick.

That was the case certainly in 2020. Well, let me see. We're, we're looking at NFBC ADP here. Josh Jacobs is the 14th running back off the board going 20th overall. Would he be a bust? I mean, going after Cam Akers, DeAndre Swift, and James Robinson. Would he be a bust at that point?

14th running back, 20th overall? No. I mean, you're looking at a guy that's going to get a lot of work. You're going to look at a guy that, you know, should have maybe a little bit more in the passing game. You know, they increased it from year one to year two. You know, maybe it goes a little bit more year two to year

three. You know, as long as he stays healthy, I think you know what you're getting. He's not a top five guy right now. A lot would have to happen, I think, for him to be a top five guy. But I think if you're drafting him as a borderline number one, easy number two, guy you start every week, that should be the expectation. Should he be going ahead of Akers, Swift, or Robinson?

The only one I would say is Robinson just because I'm concerned about what's going to happen there. But that's drafting now. Okay. And finally, well, not finally, we have a couple more here. Saquon Barkley, L. Rifle, says Saquon Barkley will be a bust.

If you count injury busts, and I think he's a pretty big concern coming off the major injury, and there's some worry that the Giants are just so bad that it's difficult for them to have a top five running back, especially if they throw their running backs

at the rate they did last year. Who's difficult for them to have a top five running back, especially if they throw their running backs at the rate they did last year. Who's worried about them being bad. What? Well, he is the sixth overall pick right now in a tide with, for fifth with Jonathan Taylor. Also all running backs in the top six.

So what do you think? When would you guys take Barkley in that range? Yeah, I I'm good with him. Then or earlier. You're still ahead of Devontae Adams? Yeah. Yeah. Okay.

Nick Fern says Darren Waller will be a bust if he's taken in round two. I mean, he could. You know, if they add Juju or somebody of that caliber, if they, uh, you know, really put a lot of stock into their receiving core this year, Henry Ruggs gets better. Brian Edwards gets better. Touchdown opportunities go away, but you know, I think you, you've seen now two years of what Darren Waller is.

And really, I think the touchdowns is going to sway him. You know, he didn't score a lot in 2019, uh, you know, big uptick in 2020. Can he be North of six touchdowns again? If that's the case, I think he's well worth taking a run to. Yeah, and I think we've seen, even though they haven't had a ton of talent at wide receiver around him, he is, like we mentioned it, he was drafted as a wide receiver. He runs like a wide receiver.

He's their best pass catcher, and that's not likely to change. Heath, are you saying we should make him, and that's not likely to change. Heath, are you saying we should strip his tight end eligibility? I'm not saying we should strip his tight end eligibility. Okay, good, good. He could fall behind somebody. I mean, there could be somebody that they add. If they add an Allen Robinson, for example,

if they add a Kenny Galladay or Juju, I mean, those guys could technically be better than him as, as what they do. Okay. And then the last one was interesting. I haven't seen this guy listed as a bust or a breakout or a sleeper. And he's just, he just exists. He's Keenan Allen. Robert Mead said Keenan Allen will be a bust in year, in a year two of Justin Herbert.

What do you think about in 2021? Keenan Allen has a bust. He's currently a round three pick about 31st overall. I went down this road last year as well, thinking that Herbert wouldn't be ready and, and to Rod Taylor wouldn't be good for Keenan Allen. And obviously Herbert was ready. So I can't see a scenario where Keenan Allen, if healthy doesn't,

you know, soak up targets in this offense and it's still the number one guy, especially with Hunter Henry gone. Maybe we see an uptick in touchdown. Yeah. It's, it's almost impossible. I think for the chargers to bring back Hunter

Henry and keep Mike Williams. So it seems to me like if anything, Keenan Allen may be as good as he was last year. He came out number six in my first run of PPR rankings at wide receiver. So not a bust. Why could they not keep both?

Money-wise. 147 targets and only 14 games. I could be wrong, but I don't think it's very easy for them to do that. Maybe Henry doesn't get very much money. Well, I mean, they could franchise Henry again if they wanted to. How much is that? It's not worth it, but they can afford to keep up. All right.

Um, let's, uh, let's move on. Let's tell you about a couple of things that you need to know. First of all, you can listen on your sports, on your smart speakers,

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It's all on Paramount+, along with hit shows from CBS, Nickelodeon, MTV, BET, Smithsonian, Comedy Central. So it's live sports. It's breaking news. It's a mountain of entertainment. That's Paramount Plus streaming March 4th. Jamie, if you gave me your biggest early bust, who would it be? Biggest early bust,

the guy that concerns me, I don't know if he's the biggest early bust, but the guy that concerns me is David Montgomery. I just worry about where he's going to get drafted and what he's going to be able to do with tarik cohen back on the field uh assuming that cohen is healthy um quarterback situation you know we still don't know what's going to happen to chicago you know is there going to be a guy that's uh prone to throw to both of those guys uh but mostly it's what montgomery did close last season what the expectation is going to be i love david montgomery i think you know he's got a chance to be a very

good running back in the nfl and still has a chance to be a very good running back in the NFL and still has a chance to be a great fantasy running back. But if he's getting drafted closer to a number one guy, as opposed to still being a quality number two running back, I think that's a mistake. So right now on NFBC, ADP is his best ball. He is going about right where Keenan Allen's going. So 30th overall. And it's in between Michael Thomas and Keenan Allen, but the running backs around him, it's a little bit like five picks after Gibson Dobbins and Miles Sanders. And just before Clyde Edwards,

Ziller and Joe Mixon and Travis ETN and Najee Harris for what that's worth. Yeah. I was looking at best ball tens, and he's right behind Clyde, right ahead of Antonio Gibson at number 19 at running back. At running back? Okay. So let's see where he is here. He would be RB18.

All right, so obviously he's around Clyde Edwards, Z-Lair, Mixon, Sanders, Gibson, Dobbins, that group. Jamie, where would you put Montgomery? I think that's a good spot for him. So if that's where he's going, then he's probably not a bust if that's the case. But I still think the expectation is he's going to be closer to what he was last year, and that's not fair for what he's going to produce. Would you take Joe Mixon or David Montgomery?

Mixon. Heath? Mixon? Mixon. Do you think Montgomery's going to be a bust? Not at the range that he's currently being drafted. It will be like, well,

there's so much unknown with the bears and it's just about projecting where these guys are going to end up right now. But I think he's going to be a fine number two running back. Like my two busts were Clyde Edwards, Lair and JK Dobbins, because in best ball drafts, they're both being drafted before David Montgomery right now.

And I think Dobbins right now is the number 15 running back. Clyde's number 18. I would prefer Montgomery to both of those guys. But I think he'll be a solid number two. I agree with Jamie. He's not going to repeat

what he did last year. Now you've talked about these guys. We talked a lot about sophomore running backs basically for the last few weeks, but with Clyde Edwards-Ziller, what kind of workload are you expecting for him? I think this offseason will tell us a lot about that, obviously. How do they

welcome back Damian Williams? They've got kind of a handful of those guys, not as many as the Patriots, but what are they going to do in terms of bringing those guys back into the fold? But currently, I am concerned that the first half of the year, they gave him a monster workload, and then they felt they needed to bring in Le'Veon Bell. And then when Le'Veon Bell wasn't good enough, he still shared a lot with Darrell Williams. And if Damian Williams is still Damian Williams, he's better than last year's Le'Veon Bell, and he's better than last year's

Darrell Williams. So the Chiefs have not been, with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, quite the same goldmine for running backs as the Andy Reid teams generally have because Patrick Mahomes doesn't dump the ball off to running backs quite as much as traditionally has happened in an Andy Reid offense. So even if he gets a large percentage of the workload, I don't think he's going to be a 50 catch back or anything like that. Okay.

So yeah, he was on a pretty good pace before the Le'Veon Bell trade. After that, not even close. And the offense really changed. Jamie, between Clyde Edwards-Elair and J.K. Dobbins, who do you think will be, who do you think has more bust potential? Edwards-Hilaire and J.K. Dobbins, who do you think has more bust potential? Edwards-Hilaire.

Man, people are really down on Edwards-Hilaire. I know he burned a lot of fantasy managers last year, but let's talk about the potential for him. Let's talk about his best-case scenario. What is everything going right for Edwards-Hilaire? What does that look like? Damien Williams, end of 2019. He's a top 10 running back. What is everything going right for Edwards-Ziller? What does that look like? Damien Williams, end of 2019.

He's a top 10 running back. He's a top 5 running back? Maybe. I mean, look, we've seen stretches of Damien Williams the end of 2018 and 2019 where he was a monster. Or 2017 and 2019, you know, where he was an absolute star. So there is still the potential of that. I think a lot of things, like, you know where he was an absolute star so there is still the potential that i think a lot of things like you know he he said it that patrick mahomes doesn't help his running backs to the level of what alex smith did in andy reed's offense for example um but the the i think the

difference is is that what you saw from damian williams was so many big plays in the passing game you know that sort of changes the perception of what he was so you know edward sal Edward Solaire skill set coming in. This is, I think why a lot of people, myself included, were excited about this was you get a 55 guy, 55 catch guy at LSU going into this offense, knowing that Damien Williams, when he decided to opt out was okay. Now maybe he could be a 50 catch guy. And if he was going to be a 50 catch guy with what he should be able to do on the ground, then things should have really exploded for him. Now, to be fair to Edwards Hilaire, this offensive line lost the doctor before the season started, lost Mitchell Schwartz at, at, at the middle point of the season. Um, and so two key pieces to great players, uh, not being there,

didn't help the run game. And then I think as he pointed out the concern of, you know, was Edwards Hilaire ready to handle the full-time workload? Did they want to bring in, you know, Le'Veon Bell because of what Le'Veon Bell's pass was? You know, it's not like they were taking in, you know, bum off the street. They were taking in, you know,

former All-Pro running back. So it wasn't a bad move by the Chiefs, but, you know, maybe it stunted Edwards Hilaire's growth. Yeah, but did it but that's the thing. It's like, Le'Veon Bell went there, and then we found out later, he went there because he didn't want a full workload. He went there to play kind of a bit part

and try to win a Super Bowl. And, I mean, before, this was Clyde Edwards Hilaire's pace before Le'Veon Bell got there. 285 carries, 56 catches, and 1,800 total yards. 1,819 total yards, but only three touchdowns. So he was kind of a monster. That's the thing.

I know I've brought this up before, but he was a monster really before Bell got there. And then when Bell got there, it's not like Bell was getting a ton of work. It's just neither guy was getting a ton of work. They just started throwing the ball 40 times a game. That's what I'm saying. It stunted his growth,

you know, of what he could be. It's not just also what we see in the games, you know, it's taking practice reps away from a young kid that didn't have any off season. So those things matter. Oh,

okay. So let's say Aaron Jones is out of green Bay. Who are you liking better? AJ Dillon or Clyde Everett's you there. Everett's still there right now. But again, we have to see what Damian Williams does. of Green Bay. Who are you liking better, A.J. Dillon or Clyde Edwards-Hilaire? Edwards-Hilaire right now, but again, we have to see what Damian Williams does. I'll take Clyde and PPR and Dillon and Nunn.

Okay, so those are some of the busts we'll talk about. With Dobbins, because you mentioned him in comparison to Edwards-Hilaire, I think J.K. Dobbins is supremely talented. It's just that situation in Baltimore, it's kind of what we say about Buffalo, only a little bit more limited

because they're not going to throw their running backs very much. And we're just hoping that at some point they decide to give a running back more than a third of the carries or rush attempts, but they just haven't. There is hope for J.K. Dobbins. I do agree that Edwards-Alaire is more likely to bust, but in the current roles that the Ravens have established the past three years,

I don't see how Dobbins could be a top 15 back in full PPR. Well, I mean, the numbers bear out that he can be, though, because if you just look going back to 2019, they've had 23 times where a running back has had at least 13 carries, and the average for those games for that running back has had at least 13 carries. And the average for those games for that running back has been 14.7 points. And if you just put that number into 2020, that's the number 15 running back. So is he going to be a top 10 guy in this, in this current

situation? Probably not, but can he be in the top 15 range? I think that's safe. Uh, if his role is what it is. And if you just look at over his last five games in the top 15 range. I think that's safe if his role is what it is. And if you just look at over his last five games in the regular season, he averaged 16.2 PPR points per game and had three games with at least 13 carries. So half of those games, which is basically what, you know, the numbers tell you. So, you know,

if you're just going by the track record with Lamar Jackson, that running back, which is going to be him over Gus Edwards, Edward's going to have a role, but Dobbins should be the lead guy, which is what Mark Ingram was in 2019. Hopefully those numbers are somewhat similar. Yeah, and Heath, Mark Ingram was RB11 in 2019 in PPR. So let's look at that season. That was only 202 carries in 15 games, 1,000 yards, 10 touchdowns.

He did have 26 catches and five receiving touchdowns, which we knew was wacky. So that's about 1,250, 1,260 total yards and 26 catches with 15 touchdowns. And you're also doing that with a 29-year-old Mark Ingram who turned 30 in December that year, comparatively to a guy at the start of his career with hopefully more explosiveness now,

not the same. Oh, more explosiveness. Yeah, for sure. That was tremendous last year. Yeah. I think,

you know, it's, it's all about perspective. Obviously, you know, if you're drafting JK Dobbins in round two, you're probably going to be regretting it. If he doesn't get to at least this range,

if you draft them in round three, where I think is probably going to settle. I think that's a fair spot for. The only thing I'd push back on with the Mark Ingram comparison is we're talking about a guy who in that year averaged five yards per carry and eight and a half yards per target

and scored once every 15 touches. Nobody's going to be more explosive than that over a long period. That is about the max explosiveness. It's about as good as it gets. What I was going to say is you need a lot of touchdowns, right? Oh, yeah.

And that offense seems to give that. But you're going to, yes, Dobbins is going to need a lot of touchdowns. The thing about that, I've said this before, like Dobbins, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, these guys that don't work a lot in the passing game, they have to be on great offenses that are going to put their running backs in position to be highly successful. Obviously the workload has to be there for them, which is where Dobbins loses

compared to the other two, because Henry, you know, is going to be, is going to be around 300 carries. You know, that Chubb is going to be, you know, around 250 carries, you know, Dobbins has to be around 200 carries and maximize that potential and then still be around 20 to 25 catches. That's going to be the case for him. They all have to score touchdowns. Clearly there's a track record for Henry and Chubb. Dobbins has to prove it now. I think if you're getting him at the right price, he's not a bust, but if you're drafting him with the expectation to be better than what Mark Ingram was in 2019, he's going to be a bust. Let me tell you where he's going right now. NFBC is going ahead of Darren Waller.

So J.K. Dobbins is in between Antonio Gibson and Miles Sanders right at the 2-3 turn, 25th overall, ahead of Darren Waller and George Kittle, ahead of A.J. Brown, Mahomes, Michaels, ahead of a lot of wide receivers, very running back heavy. But behind DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, D.K. Metcalf, Justin Jefferson. But I don't know.

That feels like a little earlier than what you guys were saying. I don't think, I feel like you wouldn't want to take them at the 2-3 turn. Correct. And probably not ahead of Waller and Kittle, right? Not for me. Non-PPR, no.

Okay. So I want to read the other busts that you guys gave to me. You sent me an email. So let me tell you, let me tell the listeners some of the names. So Heath has Aaron Rodgers, Dobbins,

Edward Ziller, Odell Beckham, Julio Jones, and Dallas Goddard, who's actually, we talked about on our breakout show yesterday. Jamie has Montgomery, Chris Carson,

Tyler Lockett, Will Fuller, Robert Tunyon, and Logan Thomas. Are there any disagreements? Any names I said there, Jamie on Heath's list, Heath on Jamie's list that you say, no, that's not a bust, that's a bad call?

Got it for me. Fight. Yeah, I think if Zach Ertz is gone, then he probably wouldn't be on my list. But Zach Ertz is still there right now. And so projecting it like that, I think they'll be less pass heavy than they were last year with Jalen Hurts playing quarterback. And fewer pass attempts plus sharing with Ertz would make it difficult for him to be a top six or seven tight end. Yeah, Ertz is gone.

So I know it's not official yet, but he's made his peace that he's leaving Philadelphia saying goodbye to the city. They're going to cut him, whether it's a post-June 1st cut or sometime before the draft, but they could be trying to trade him. Maybe that was just for the winter, Jamie. Maybe he's a snowbird. Maybe he's a snowbird. He's just saying, bye, I'll see you in a few months.

Maybe, maybe. But to me, this is the setup that we love is a crappy receiving core or an incomplete receiving core, receiving core being rebuilt and a guy who's got the talent to be a Darren Waller, George Kittle type of player. Maybe not to those heights,

but somebody that could be a top five fantasy tight end. So I'd love to set up for Dallas Goddard unless the Eagles go out and get an Allen Robinson, a Kenny Galladay draft, Devante Smith or Jamar chase and just completely overhaul this receiving court. But if it's the Zach Paschal guys, then I think it's a great setup for Dallas Goddard. Goddard. If you take out week three, played six snaps.

His pace was 72 catches, 827 yards, five touchdowns on 102 targets. Did not do very well with Jalen Hurts, but, you know, Zach Hurts was on the field. Well, he got 14 targets in the two games that he played fully, because he left the third one. I think he played a lot of that game. He had 17 targets in those three games. Zacherts also played in all three of those games. So it's not exactly the best comparison.

We don't have to revisit this. I know Heath is a big Dallas Goddard fan. He was a top 10 guy two years ago in tandem with Zacherts. And so now he's hopefully free of that situation. I think Goddard's in a great situation. And actually he was top 10 per game this year, at least in PPR, this past year.

He was ninth, and that was with leaving one game after six snaps. With where he's likely to be drafted if he finishes ninth this coming year,

he's the bust. Yes. The ninth best tight end is not very good. I think we sort of established that yesterday. Usually the sixth best tight end isn't very good.

Any disagreements for you, Heath? Give me the list again montgomery carson lockett he like nobody's allowed to say anything bad about tyler lockett with heath around will fuller robert tunyon logan thomas most of those guys i agree entirely with i i'm not going to call tyler lock it a bust he's going to have, most likely, a frustrating year. He might be a little bit Amari Cooper or Brandon Cooks-ish, but I still think unless Russell Wilson gets traded, and again, Seattle would have to eat a ton of money.

Maybe they do, and then I'd change my tune. But as long as Russell Wilson's there, I think Tyler Lockett's going to be a top 20 wide receiver. Jamie, why is he on your bus list? Well, I, I, I think it's pretty clear what Seattle wants to be. I mean, you know, there's been enough written about it and talked about it and why Russell Wilson wants out.

And so once they went to this more ground and pound offenses, where would Tyler Lockett be count became frustrating. So I don't, I don't think in what they want to be, if that plays itself out and in what they want to be, if that plays itself out, and obviously what they do at the running back position and keeping Russell Wilson is a huge factor. But if Wilson's there,

and it's now a battle of wills of Pete Carroll versus Russell Wilson, and what the running attack is going to look like, I don't think Tyler Lockett is going to be a top 20 wide receiver. Where is he being drafted on in FBC, Adam? About 60th. I've got him 19th 20 wide receiver. Where is he being drafted on FBC, Adam? About 60th. I've got him 19th at wide receiver

and 71st in best ball tens, which is the best place to draft Tyler Lockett. You never have to decide when to start. Yeah, best ball, he's perfect. Wide receiver 26 on NFC right now. After

Galladay-Moore-Cupp right before Claypool. Yeah, so right now. After Galladay, Moore, Kupp, right before Claypool. Yeah, so tell me who being taken ahead of him, Heath, you would prefer Tyler Lockett to. I don't have the list that you do. Okay, I'll read you this list. So Thielen,

Ayuk, Galladay. I would rather have Tyler Lockett than Adam Thielen. Ayuk? I'd rather have Lockett than Ayuk. Galladay. Who knows? Yeah, all right. We'll wait and see. DJ Moore.

I'd rather have Lockett than Moore. Cooper Cup. I'd rather have Lockett than Cup. So all of them. Okay, then let's go a little further. Tee Higgins. I think that's the right range. Okay.

So Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins are 18, 19, 20 here. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, you know, this is something I want to point out, though. It's been a while since Seattle has been truly ground and pound.

They're usually, you know, 18th-ish or so in past attempts. They're not... I'm going to get the exact numbers here. They're not, you know, 18th-ish or so in pass attempts. They're not... I'm going to get the exact numbers here. They're not, you know, leading the NFL in rush attempts. They're not that kind of team, I would say. So pass attempts per game, crap.

I'll find it. Well, and I think, like, the other thing is, one thing I've not factored in that could happen is that DK Metcalf could actually start getting 25, 26, 27% of the targets.

And that would be a problem for Tyler Lockett. I don't know that people recognize the fact that even last year when, when Metcalf broke out, Tyler Lockett still had three more targets than DK Metcalf. Yes, he did. And he had a hundred catches also, which is wild.

That's just not what you used to expect from Tyler Lockett. And he's been a top 16 wide receiver in both formats three straight years. So anyway, pass attempts per game rank last six seasons. 28th, 18th, 16th, 32nd, 23rd, and 17th. So three years ago, they were last in pass attempts. But usually, I mean, four of the last five years, they've been 18th, 16th, 23rd, 17th. So I don't know that they're going to go to being one of the lowest pass volume offenses. I think they'll be around 20th, something like that.

I mean, what year was it? 2018. They made the playoffs. They lost the first round. That was the Chris Carson year. That was Carson's first good year. But even last, like, were they in the upper half

of the league last year? They were 17th. But, you know, it does split into the first eight games and the last eight games. I think Wilson threw a lot. Wilson threw 32.6 times in the last eight games of the year. And that's when everything went downhill for the passing game. And Wilson Wilson threw a lot. Wilson threw 32.6 times in the last eight games of the year.

And that's when everything went downhill for the passing game. And Wilson wasn't as good. And Lockett wasn't as good. I mean, Lockett still got enough targets in that stretch, but he just wasn't nearly as good. So his last nine games, or his last ten

games, including week 17, which was a two-touchdown game, he had 55 catches for 512 yards on 74 targets. That's 118 target pace and only 819 yards. So it wasn't even like he wasn't getting thrown to. It just wasn't nearly as good.

But neither was Wilson. It's been two years in a row. Wilson's been amazing. Lockett's been one of the best wide receivers in fantasy. Wilson struggled down the stretch. Lockett struggled down the stretch. Maybe Wilson will be gone. Wilson makes me nervous too. What about Metcalf?

Does Metcalf make you nervous? See, I think DK Metcalf is ascending. Like he's to the point where like I think he said you're going to see an increase in targets for him.

But like I think I think, and I think Tyra Lockett's more likely to finish as a top 20 wide receiver like he's being drafted than DK Metcalf as a top five wide receiver like he's being drafted. Final thoughts, Jamie?

I think that's fair. I mean, it's a lot harder to be in the top five than he is. I'm just saying, if we're going to pick on a Seahawks receiver, let's call DK Metcalf a bust. Nobody wants to do that. But in PPR, he's just not going to get a lot of catches.

You wouldn't think anyway. His yards per catch is so high. And he's a big play guy. But he's got to make you a little nervous in PPR. And if Russell Wilson gets traded, it's going to be... Oh, that'd be awful. All bets are off. Unless he's traded to make you a little nervous in PPR. And if Russell Wilson gets traded, it's going to be... Oh, that'd be awful. All bets are off.

Unless he's traded to Dallas for Dak. Yeah, that'd be fun. Man, it's going to get fun, and hopefully it's going to get fun soon. All right, let's go through some news and notes, and we'll finish up with the rest of the busts and some emails. FantasyFootball at CBSi.com. Arizona signed J.J. Watt

to a two-year $31 million deal with $23 million guaranteed, according to Adam Schefter. He's played 16 games, two of the last three seasons. Only five sacks last year, but he ranked very high in ESPN's pass rush win rate metric. There are a lot of different metrics. He was better than the five sacks, put it that way. And also ESPN saying that last season,

Watt was double teamed as an edge rusher 30% of the time. That was the most in the NFL. So you got to figure playing across or on the other side of the line from Chandler Jones is going to help. Chandler Jones played only five games last year with a biceps injury left. He missed the rest of the season, but they're going to be good. And they were six and three before Kyler Murray re-aggravated his injury, which apparently he hurt against the Dolphins two weeks before that Seahawks game. So who do you guys think, as of right now, will win the NFC West? As of right now?

Yeah. So Russell Wilson's on Seattle? Yes. And San Francisco's fully healthy? Well, no, I'm not going to tell you that Russell Wilson's on Seattle? Yes. And San Francisco's fully healthy? Well, no, I'm not going to tell you that Russell Wilson's staying on Seattle. I'm going to say, as of right now, who do you think is going to win the NFC West?

You have to make your own predictions. As of right now, he's on Seattle. But you have to make your own predictions about what will happen. The Rams. I will take a healthy 49ers team. Okay. So right now, I did a Twitter poll.

The Rams have 53% of the vote. Arizona's second, 23.4%. San Francisco, 16%. Seattle last, 8%. And they won the division last year. Yeah, I mean, that's people taking to Russell Wilson being traded. Has to be. Yeah, you'd think so.

Okay, Kansas City hopes to re-sign Sammy Watkins. We'll check on that. Yeah, I don't know. They like him. I hope they don't. Who would have more value? Do you think Sammy Watkins has fantasy value to be salvaged if he's in a better situation than being on the best offense in football?

No, I mean, you kind of see who he is. Ever since Buffalo, he's had some flashes of greatness at times. There was a stretch with the Rams. There was a stretch with Kansas City, but he's just he can't stay healthy and he can't produce

at a high level. We're going to take a break. When we come back, why is Aaron Rodgers a bust? We'll talk about that and a lot more on Fantasy Football today. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows.

Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations, or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada. Insurance designed for life. Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate? Don't let your project

become part of this statistic a quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime financial penalties and keep you safe don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money click before you dig ensure your next project is safe visit ontarioonecall.ca it's free it's easy it's the law data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. All right, Heath, we're putting you on the spot. You have Aaron Rodgers as an early bust. Is he going too high? And who would you take that's going after him? Who would you take before Aaron Rodgers? Well, this is one where I stepped in it last year and called Aaron Rodgers a bust, but I'm going to go back to it because I learned nothing.

He was awesome, but some of the concerns that we had going into last year actually came true. We were worried about them cutting way back on pass attempts and being more of a run-first offense. He only threw 526 passes. Now, it didn't matter because he had one of the best years of his career. He had a 9.1% touchdown rate, which is three points higher than his career average. And his career average is the second highest in NFL history. So that is not something you should expect to even come close to repeating. And that's a lot like 3% of 526 passes.

What is that, 17 touchdowns? I can tell you that if he had been at his career touchdown rate, he would have been the number 10 quarterback in fantasy. Ninth and sixth point, tenth and fourth point. That would have been 33 touchdown passes. And that career touchdown rate is two full points higher than what he had done the two prior years yeah and it was 15 touchdown passes fewer than what he threw 48 touchdowns right um so like there's some obvious regression coming with aaron rogers and it may

not be enough to knock him outside of the top six or seven quarterbacks. I don't know where he's being drafted on an FBC. I've got him at QB seven. That's where he is on NFBC ahead of Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson and obviously Jalen hurts for now. I would rather have Herbert and I would rather have Wilson. Okay, but the bombshell would be would you rather have Herbert and I would rather have Wilson. Okay. But the, the bombshell would be, would you rather have Hertz than Rogers? Please say,

please say yes. So I can yell at you. As of right now, I will say no. Good. If we get to may and the Eagles have added anything at wide receiver and they have not added competition for Jalen Hertz, then I may just say yes.

Okay. So if we get to May, let's say we get to the NFL draft and they take Jamar Chase sixth overall. You're going to put Hurts ahead of Aaron Rodgers? Probably. Jamie, how about you? And isn't it time that the Packers added somebody as well, by the way?

Because they're going to lose. They're probably going to lose the player who was second on the team in targets two straight years, which is Aaron Jones. So they should probably. Aaron Jones isn't the biggest loss for me. If it happens, it's more Corey Lindsay Lindsley, their center. If they lose him and David Bakhtiari is not ready for the start of the season coming off the torn ACL. That's two big pieces on that offensive line. And we saw what happened to Rogers in the playoff loss against Tampa.

Now, obviously, they're not going to face a defensive line like that where he's going to get hit. But if that happens more times than not, he's going to be in trouble. And so I do think that Rodgers has bus potential. He'll be a bus for me as well in my first run of the column. I do think, though, it's interesting because I'm in the same boat with Heath. I think I have him right around seventh or eighth in my first run of the column. I do think, though, it's interesting because I'm in the same boat with Heath. I think I have him right around seventh or eighth in my ranking. It's hard to rank somebody that high and say he's going to be a bust.

This is more of a statistical bust than it is a guy to avoid. Don't draft him. It's kind of like what we talked about with Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes the last couple of seasons. You're still drafting these guys to be starters, but don't draft them with the expectation of them repeating what they did the following, the previous year. You know, that's just not going to happen for Rodgers.

I mean, he jumped, I think it was like nine points, nine fantasy points per game or seven fantasy points per game, something ridiculous from what it was in 2019 to 2020. If you split the difference, that's a good quarterback, but it's not the number one guy or number two guy like we saw last year. And I got an example of what Jamie's saying. Aaron Rodgers on best ball tens being drafted seventh amongst quarterbacks, but he is half a draft spot behind Dak Prescott.

He is one pick later than Deshaun Watson. He's eight picks later than Lamar jackson and 30 picks ahead of justin herbert and russell wilson so like he's being drafted it's seventh but it's like almost fourth and three rounds ahead of eighth and on nfc he is also seventh just after herbert is actually ahead of him herbert's QB 5. Basically, Herbert, Watson, Rogers are essentially back to back to back. And then Dak Prescott is behind them. Four picks after

Aaron Rogers. And then Russell Wilson, three picks after that. Is he clearly... I think Watson, you know, Prescott... Because Rogers runs less than ever, basically. He just doesn't run much anymore. Is he clearly worse than Justin Herbert? Is he clearly worse than Russell Wilson? because Rogers runs less than ever, basically. He just doesn't run much anymore. Is he clearly worse than Justin Herbert?

Is he clearly worse than Russell Wilson? I would rather have him than Wilson, just given what the potential is for that Seattle team. But the upside for those other guys, Jalen Hurts included, I think is higher. Herbert's ceiling could be higher than Aaron Rogers. Isn't that's saying a lot because Rodgers is coming off the big— Isn't that a funny thing to say, though, because Rodgers is— Well, I mean, you know, you're looking at it again.

It's sustaining what Rodgers did. You know, he had an amazing season. He deserves to be the MVP. He made—like he said, I had him as a bust last year, too. He made us look stupid for, you know, putting him in that category. But can he do it again? You know, I mean, you know, this is asking a guy at 37 right 37 um to to put up these historical type of numbers and have really no major issues entry-wise you know i mean they had some offensive

line issues uh more toward the end of the season but um adams missed what one game two games right i think he missed two games and he left one early. The year before he missed four. Robert Tunyon had a ridiculous season. We can talk about him. A guy who just made play after play. His catch rate was ridiculous. His touchdown rate was ridiculous. Is that going to happen again?

Is Valdez-Scantling going to have the case of the drops more times than not? Or is he going to come down with those plays? Alan Lazard missed a lot of times, so I guess he was the major injury that they dealt with. Is he going to still put up good numbers? I think he's a restrictive free agent, if I'm not mistaken, or a guy who can walk. I'm not sure what his status is as a... I'll tell you in a second. Just to be clear, he can't...

Aaron Rodgers cannot do this again. It was basically his best season ever, but I think he's safer than Justin Herbert because he's Aaron Rodgers he's absolutely safer but you know again it's what are you trying to do to win at that position fantasy wise like do you want safe or do you want ceiling and part of the reason why Rodgers was so great last year was where you got him absolutely yeah okay uh let's go to another bus then let's go to one for

Jamie here. Lazard is, I'm sorry, he's an exclusive rights-free agent, so they can just tender him and then match any offer. Talked about David Montgomery, talked about Tyler Lockett,

Robert Tunyon, I assume, you know, just Aaron Rodgers is going to regress, Tunyon's going to regress? Yes. Okay,

so how about Will Fuller? He was, on a per-game basis, sixth and non-ppr eighth in ppr he was incredible and he had eight touchdowns in 11 games on pace for nearly 1300 yards and 12 touchdowns so yeah where you at on will fuller right now and obviously the quarterback question the team question looms over him there's a lot of things uh obviously if he changes teams if he loses watson you know those things factor into play uh but as i told you on fantasy football today in five um i always get concerned when guys go into contract years that have injury risks or injury history and injury history and then they magically stay healthy for

that season and then we come to find out that he was suspended for performance in nancy drug you know how much that factor into him staying healthy? So I don't want to put that out, you know, as, as something that was the reason for it, but it's just more like you see, it's a lot of other sports, you know, guys go out there, they get their contract and then maybe things don't work out for them the same the next year when there's a track record of them missing time due to injury. So, uh, he's somebody that I think is, is got a world of potential. Uh, you know, I was banging the drum for him last year. I was really excited about his situation with Deshaun Watson, leaning on him with DeAndre Hopkins gone.

But I don't feel the same way about him going into this year. I think he's more of a guy that you settle for as a number three receiver as opposed to a guy that you target. And again, that's not knowing where he's playing. Yeah, I agree with everything. And I just propose a new rule, Adam. If a player has played at least five years in the NFL and they do not have a 16-game season,

we are not allowed to tell people their 16-game pace. I'm just doing it to put it in perspective. But fine, fine. So, well, how many games did he play in 2019? He has not played more than 11 games since his rookie year okay how many in 2019 though 11 and 2020 was also 11 correct okay i'll just start 18 with 7 i'll just start giving his 11 game pace then you also walk in he's already missing a game to begin with uh yeah he had a six game suspension and they've the texans kind of it's already leaked out the

texans are not going to use the franchise tag on him is that right yeah i don't know why they would because you're that as as good of a player as he may be and has proven at times to be when he's healthy that price tag is not worth it i hope his value sinks because i i always thought well not always but for a while i thought he was a good player it just hadn't out never really had the chance to blossom and he certainly did last year so i mean i think we're looking at a very talented player here i hope people are really down on him there's no doubt about that yeah you see it yeah yeah what the upside is so maybe he can surprise people maybe he's going about 31st overall among wide receivers you know be really interesting if he ends up being the guy that goes to Detroit or goes to Chicago

where he's clearly the number one option with what is maybe a bad offense and a mediocre quarterback. Like where he is in terms of draft. That's going to be really interesting. The ideal situation, obviously, is he stays in Houston with Deshaun Watson. Yeah, they have one heck of a connection for sure. Okay, so let's say he does stay in Houston

with Deshaun Watson. Would you take Will Fuller or Tyler Lockett? Lockett. I would take Will Fuller. Heath, you've got a couple of wide receivers who at one point were superstars one still is well the other one we're not sure about but you have them on your early bus list and they go in very different ranges julio jones and odell beckham who would you like to talk about first steve yeah odell beckham i actually thought well i better check and make sure that like he hasn't fallen too far in terms of where he's being drafted and he was still in the top 33 wide receivers and that's that's too early for me so i just don't know like obviously there's significant risk um that he's just not going to be odell beckham ever again and the kevin stefanski aspect of the browns offense really enhances that because

his chances of getting 10 targets a game like he did in the Giants with the Giants doesn't really exist any longer. So I feel like you're kind of drafting a guy who could give you nothing or maybe everything goes right and he finishes the top 24 wide receiver. That's like those

guys are a dime a dozen and I don't I wouldn't he's not in my top 40. So he played six healthy games. He left week seven after two snaps. In those six games, Baker Mayfield threw 28 passes per game. What kind of offense do you think they're going to be? Are they going to be that run heavy again?

In the last six games, he threw 37 pass attempts per game. I would say I have them somewhere right in the middle of that. And here's another thing that I noticed with Beckham, uh, with Cleveland. It's weird. He's really been matchup dependent. As you look at the six games he played, he was bad against Baltimore. He was bad against Pittsburgh and was kind of bad against Indianapolis. And he had a big game against Cincinnati. We remember that one was on Thursday night, I believe. And he had a huge game against Dallas.

And the other game was against Washington, which he only got six targets. He was okay in that game. And then in 2019, basically whenever he had a favorable matchup, he had a good game, Beckham. But he didn't have many of those. those played a really tough schedule in 2019. And when you're playing four games against the Steelers and the Ravens, that's usually a bad thing.

So, I mean, that's so disappointing that Odell Beckham has sort of become a matchup sky. Well, and like, when you say that, I think it's important to quantify, like when we say he has a really good game, what that means.

It's been 20 games since he's reached 100 yards. He's topped 100 yards twice in Cleveland. How many times has he topped 10 targets? Once last year. Two, three, four, five four five six seven times um but he like he had one game his his high in yardage was 81 yards last year yeah so i think well i guess what i was referring to was really he gets in the end zone in these good matchups um three games in 2019 against bottom 10 teams you know teams that were bad against wide receivers.

He had 28 points, 20 points and 14 points in PPR, but just he's had really tough. I don't know. I just really disappointing. I mean, I still, I cannot believe Odell Beckham has become someone that you like,

Oh, good matchup. Start Odell Beckham. That's basically what he's been in Cleveland. I just think it's probably true. And it's probably not his fault that due to all the injuries and surgeries and stuff, he's just not that same Odell Beckham.

Yeah. Jamie, do you have any hope that he could become a top 12 wide receiver? Top 12? No, I mean, not with Cleveland, you know,

it's, it's not just the, the way that they run the offense and how they run the ball. It's Baker's not going to take those chances to allow Beckham to be that guy on a consistent enough and volume enough basis to put him in those spots. He doesn't have to. I mean, you know, that's just not the way that they want to operate you know so um he's you know this was the concern when he went to Cleveland that he's sharing the field with a very accomplished running mate in Jarvis Landry they added an accomplished tight end in Austin Hooper they have pass catchers out of the backfield so there's there are there are reasons why Beckham is not

in the same spot along with what you guys both just said. But I do think that the cost could end up being good for Beckham if he falls enough. Now, what's his ADP right now? He's two spots after Will Fuller. So his 33rd wide receiver off the board, he's about 87th overall. Yeah, I mean, to me, that's perfect. I don't have a problem taking a chance on him there because if he does bounce back to any semblance of

even what he was in those six games, he's going to reward you. Okay. Why Julio Jones? Heath? I'm pretty worried about, and I know that Arthur Smith does not have Derek Henry in Atlanta. I don't think he's going to come anywhere close to dirt cutters.

Total number of pass attempts. There's already been talk about how they want to get Hayden Hurst a little more involved, and I don't really buy that, but I don't think Hayden Hurst's involvement is going to go down. Calvin Ridley's involvement is not going to go down, and I do expect they may throw the ball a hundred fewer

times this year. And that sounds like absurd, but you're one of the most pass-heavy coordinators in recent history. And Arthur Smith, which maybe he just goes the complete opposite direction, but there's nothing to suggest that. Does this matter to you?

In 2016, Matt Ryan threw 434 passes. That's very low. And he was a top six wide receiver. He had 1,400 yards, six touchdowns. 2017, Matt Ryan threw 529 pass attempts. Very, very low. And he was, on a per-game basis, he was number nine in non-PPR, number 10 in PPR.

He had only three touchdowns, but he had another 1,400-yard season. So, I mean, of course, I think back then, Mohamed Sanu was their number two receiver. Not Calvin Ridley, who might be their number one. Who knows? But he has shown that he can be a top 10 wide receiver, Julio Jones, with Matt Ryan throwing about 530 times.

He's five years younger then, though. He is, yeah. But last year was arguably his best year. I mean, he was so good last year. He was awesome. Again, I think it comes down to price. You know,

where do you go in our drafts? Round three? That I can look up. He in, in NFC, he's wide receiver 16. He's after Deontay Johnson, Chris Godwin,

and Robert Woods. Give me that all day if he's wide receiver 16. Yeah. Well, you think he should go ahead of those three? Julio Jones ahead of Deontay Johnson, Chris Godwin, and Robert Woods?

Easily. I think he should go ahead of Deontay Johnson. Not Godwin and Woods. Not Godwin and Woods. What about Mike Evans, Alan Robinson? Well, I mean, Robinson, there's still a lot to be determined, but I would prefer Evans.

I mean, especially if Godwin's gone, then Evans is in a great spot. What about Terry McLaurin? I prefer McLaurin. It's close. I think you're pretty down on Julio Jones. We're doing the bus show, right? Oh, yeah. That's what this is. All right.

Jamie, let's get one more from you. You can pick Chris Carson or Logan Thomas. I mean, Carson obviously is more interesting. You know, it depends on where he's going to play. If he stays in Seattle, then I'll take him off this list. If he signs with Atlanta or the Jets or a team that's going to give him a featured opportunity, I'll take him off this list. But I just don't know, you know, if he doesn't end up in the right spot,

that he's going to be a good fantasy option. So I'm concerned about a guy who needs volume to be successful, and I don't know if he's going to get that. Yeah, he feels like somebody who could end up signing with a team, and then they draft somebody in the third round, and he's a very good running back for the first month of the season. One injury, and all of a sudden the rookie's a star. It does feel that way yeah i i feel that i do feel like people count chris carson out a lot and he's you know he's always been good uh and last year he showed his chops in the passing game and he's been a top 16 just like tyler lockett great tyler lockett three straight years as a

top 16 receiver same thing for chris carson three straight years as a top 16 receiver. Same thing for Chris Carson. Three straight years as a top 16 running back. I hope Chris Carson gets a good opportunity. I'm just concerned that he won't. And you know, I gotta say, Chris Carson being that good, I really feel like the Seattle offensive line has been unfairly maligned

with all this Russell Wilson stuff. I'm talking about getting sacked so much. It's pretty, it's pretty interesting depending on, you know, which kind of metrics you want to look at, because the advanced metrics would say that a lot of Russell Wilson sacks have been his fault. And your eyes tell you that too, because you see him run all over the field trying to extend plays. So I thought it was really...

He acknowledges that, though. I mean, does he, though? Because he says he's tired of getting hit, and yet he wants to throw more. So what does he actually acknowledge? I mean, there's getting hit a record amount of times, and then there's getting hit for holding the ball too long. Like, you could hold the ball too long and still take sacks,

but not be sacked a record amount of times over the course of your career. A record amount of times, but he's played so many games during that stretch people were talking about you know him how many players have actually played as much as him during that stretch not that many i i think it's a combination of a couple things the way i understand it and i could be wrong but and it's like goes back to what dk metcalf and tyler lockett have said about other teams know our plays other teams know what we're doing that the plays are so much designed around Tyler Lockett

and or DK Metcalf going deep and Russell Wilson waiting until they're open. Maybe Russell Wilson would just like a little better play design on getting some guys open so he doesn't have to hold the ball as long. I mean okay that could certainly work and hopefully new offensive coordinator will give him that.

Boy I wonder how we would look at Lockett and Metcalf if they actually got a third option that was halfway decent. They haven't had a 60-target player as their number three guy three straight years. Well, Desley, here we go. Yeah, maybe. All right, let's read some emails.

FantasyFootball at CBSi.com. This is from Dan. He says, Dear Hull, McInnes, Demetra, and Shanahan. Those are Detroit Red Wings? What do you think? Sure. Hull, McInnes, Demetra, and Shanahan. I feel like I'm right about this.

Dynasty League with contracts has a max contract of four to five years, depending on draft position. Would you lean more towards running back instead of wide receiver in the rookie draft because you can't hold on to a player for more than five years? I mean, if you're just in a vacuum best player available oh god i suck it's the st louis blues i feel like he should have known that by the way in fact 100 he should have known that um st louis blues yeah it's in the midwest you should know everything about the midwest sports hull mckinnisnes, Demetra, and Shanahan? I was thinking about NFL coaches.

Why would you think that? Shanahan. Yeah, but this is not a football show. Sorry, Jamie, what were you saying? You're just talking about in a vacuum, best player available? Well, you know, people have the theory in dynasty leagues that you draft wide receivers ahead of running backs because of shelf life.

But if you can only keep a guy for a maximum of five years, is that off the table? Should you prefer running backs in that case? Rookie draft. I guess it just depends on what you need. You know, I wouldn't necessarily factor in longevity as much. Yes. But I mean, if you get five years out of any player, you should be thrilled about that. You know, five years of greatness.

I think I answered this in a dynasty mailbag a week or two ago. Yeah, I would push the running backs up a little bit on my rookie board. Okay, this is from Frank. I just started a Superflex slow email salary cap draft. This is my first one. It's $1,000 per team. What should I be looking to spend on players? It's Dynasty,

and you choose the contract length of the players that you win. So how do you think Frank should spread his $1,000 around? Some to Heath, some to you, some to me. I'll take it I'll give you my Venmo after the show

I would probably say not very much on quarterback because every time we do one of these salary crap drafts we get to the end and there's 17 quarterbacks left that you can get for a dollar it won't be a dollar in a thousand dollar league.

I would try to go get a couple of top 12 wide receivers and a really good running back and fill in around them. Okay, works. Good luck, Frank. Thanks everybody for listening. We will talk to you on Thursday and make sure

you're checking out Fantasy Football Today in 5 and Fantasy Baseball Today in 5. Have a good one. See you.