Fantasy Football Today - Early Busts: Two Top 5 RBs and a Top 5 WR!? (04/06 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: April 6, 2023

VOTE FOR US HERE (Fantasy Sports & Betting Category): https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/fantasy-and-sports-betting/ Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as w...ell as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Big names on the list of early busts! Let's start with a DeAndre Hopkins bust case (1:25) with Dave defending Hopkins and Jamey making the bust case. Then we debate whether Tua Tagovailoa is more likely to be a bust or a breakout (4:15) ... Quick news items (11:22) and back to the busts! Dave makes the bust case for Josh Jacobs (15:00) and Javonte Williams (20:15) followed by Mike Evans (26:25) and Christian Kirk (28:50). Why are we avoiding Jacobs in the first round? Why is Baker Mayfield bad for Evans? ... Jamey's busts list includes Lamar Jackson (36:50) and Derrick Henry (41:00), plus a few more running backs. At wide receiver (44:55), Davante Adams is going too early for Jamey's liking, but Dave does not feel the same way. We also talk about Terry McLaurin (52:10) and a couple of 49ers (54:05) ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:16 Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance.
Starting point is 00:01:37 Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. We've got some big names for you on today's episode talking about 2023 bus an early look here we got two running backs who finished top four last year a top three wide receiver and a top three tight end oh my gosh dave what are we doing we're moving forward we're projecting we're doing what we're supposed to do in fantasy football this time of year. But keep in mind, a lot can change after the draft. Absolutely. That's Dave Richard. Jamie Isenberg is here.
Starting point is 00:02:11 Good morning, Jamie. Good morning. How are you? I'm good. It is going to be like 75 degrees today in New York. So I am really excited to finish this show and go outside. So give me your three favorite buses and we'll get out of here. Yeah, we'll we got a fun day here in New York.
Starting point is 00:02:28 I hope everybody has good weather. We got some Twitter polls to talk about and a couple of news items. Tyreek Hill says he's going to retire after the 2025 season and that will be age 31 for him. So that will discuss that. Let's start with two Twitter polls like we did yesterday. So Jamie had DeAndre Hopkins on his bust list. I think Dave is going to disagree.
Starting point is 00:02:49 Dave took Hopkins early in the third round in our draft a couple of weeks ago. So I just wrote, DeAndre Hopkins will be a bust, in all caps, in 2023. Agree or disagree? And last I checked, 476 votes. 53% disagree. 47% agree. Dave, did you vote? I did not. I did not know that you did Twitter polls.
Starting point is 00:03:13 But I wonder if I feel the same way that that 53% feel, which is that DeAndre Hopkins is just one of those guys that you can't count out. And maybe it just comes down to where's the right place to draft him. that DeAndre Hopkins is just one of those guys that you can't count out. And maybe it just comes down to where's the right place to draft him. We don't even know what team he's going to be on. We're pretty sure it's not going to be Arizona. If he's on Arizona, I think I might have some problems with him. But, man, he's been so good for so long. We were reminded of that last year.
Starting point is 00:03:45 As soon as he came back from his suspension he was a house of fire and i would imagine that hopkins will be a quality receiver not necessarily a top 12 type of receiver but kind of close to there if he's on any passing offense that's at least good what's the bus case jamie he'll be 31 hasn't finished the last two seasons. As of now, he's on Arizona. If he does go to a team that has a high-level, up-tempo passing attack that's going to give him the targets that he needs, then I will definitely change my opinion. But I think based on the fact that he's probably going to be
Starting point is 00:04:16 a top three-round pick and could end up outside of the Patriots, that would be a disaster. Any team that's not going to have a quality quarterback system where he's not going to have a quality quarterback system where he's not going to be disinterested. I know he has no trade clause. It's going to be up to him to decide where he goes.
Starting point is 00:04:32 But I'm sure if any team says, here's the bank, here's the bag, he'll be probably happy to go anywhere. But I just think he's going to get overdrafted based on name. And the fact that it's that close to me is a win for his bust candidacy. Yeah. So you think he'll be a round three pick, DeAndre Hopkins? I think if he goes before that, that's a huge bust. Absolutely.
Starting point is 00:04:56 I thought maybe four. If he goes in that range, that's a total bust candidate for me, for sure. Okay. And he did, you know, with four games with Colt McCoy and Trace McSorley, he was on pace for 1,400 yards, zero touchdowns, 204 targets. If those points carry over, I'd love it. Yeah, well, you probably wouldn't, actually, because he did not score a touchdown,
Starting point is 00:05:20 but actually he was on pace for 140 catches. So I guess it was probably still good. Did you know, by the way, one of my favorite stats, Colt McCoy and Trace McSorley threw one touchdown on 215 pass attempts last year. Yuck. Let's go to our next Twitter poll. What is more likely for Tua Tungavailoa in 2023? Tua is on Dave's bust list.
Starting point is 00:05:43 Bust or breakout? And last I saw, we'll get an updated look at it here from Schaefer, but at 460 votes before we recorded this, and 58% said bust for Tua Tungavailoa, 42% said breakout for Tua Tungavailoa. And that's really interesting. Let's get the updated numbers, Thomas. What do we got here? So Bust is still winning almost 60% of 40%, basically. Dave, why did you put Tua on your Bust list? Because I think there's other quarterbacks that you can draft and just get away with carrying one guy. I know what Tua's upside is.
Starting point is 00:06:20 We saw it in the game against Baltimore. But the downside is he sits on your IR spot for who knows how long I'm nervous about him suffering another concussion. And I'm still a little bit nervous about him performing to a high level week in and week out. Can he do that? Can he be that guy? How often last year was he that guy? It happened, you know, the huge game against Baltimore. And then he had like that three game stretch in the middle of the year where he was pretty on fire. I mean, at least 29 fantasy points in those games, but then he really didn't do much the
Starting point is 00:06:53 rest of the way. And he played a bunch of games late in the year before he suffered yet another concussion. So I I'm, I'm kind of drafting him in the same range that I think Jamie's drafting him in. I think Jamie's just going for him sooner among other quarterbacks. Like, I don't know where you have them ranked compared to Dak or Cousins, Jamie. Those are two quarterbacks that I'd just rather take because I know that they can, or at least I think they can last me the year and I don't have to carry two guys.
Starting point is 00:07:18 With Tua, if you take him on draft day, you pretty much have to plan on carrying two quarterbacks at some point in the year. Yeah, I just to me, he wouldn't be a bust candidate because of where you're drafting him. That's the only problem. But you're drafting him as the eighth quarterback, right?
Starting point is 00:07:36 No. Where do you have him? 11 or 12. It's right about where I have him. Deshaun Watson or Tua? Watson. I guess I will just remind people how good Tua was overall. He played 39% of the snaps in the game against Cincinnati,
Starting point is 00:07:54 that Thursday night game. If you remove that game, his 17-game pace was 4,781 yards, 35 touchdowns, 10 interceptions. Also, he does not run. Last year, he did not run. He ran for five yards per game, something like that, five, six yards per game. His career high is something like 10 yards per game.
Starting point is 00:08:14 So it's not going to be a plus there. But the overall numbers, when he was healthy, he was a top five quarterback if you remove that Cincinnati game. But you did talk about the streak. He was top seven even if you remove that Cincinnati game. But you did talk about the streak. He was top seven even if you keep the Cincinnati game. Yeah, he was seventh per game if you keep the Cincinnati game, ninth per game and four point for passing touchdown leagues. The ups and downs, though, he kind of like Lamar Jackson, Dave.
Starting point is 00:08:38 You were talking about this. Tua played 12 healthy games last year. He scored more than 18 points only five times. He scored more than 22 points only four times. He scored more than 22 points only four times. He had four huge games. I could go into each game and kind of why they weren't as bad as it seems, but the numbers are the numbers. So, yeah, he was a little inconsistent there.
Starting point is 00:09:00 But I still see quite a breakout case for him if he stays healthy. You know, I think you guys probably would see. It's hard not to see it, right? Yeah, I mean, I think, again, you know, where you're getting him, because I don't think anybody's reaching for Tua at this point, based on what we saw from a year ago and knowing the history there. I think it's definitely encouraging what the Dolphins have done, the fact that they're picking up his fifth-year option,
Starting point is 00:09:23 that they didn't bring in significant competition for him you know that they feel pretty comfortable that you know he's going to pass all the check marks and and be ready to go clearly there's there's got to be concern about that and dave's right if you draft two you got to draft two quarterbacks unless of course your league is is only going to be a for the most part a one quarterback per team type of league then the waiver wire is going to be robust you don't really have to worry about that but um clearly you want to make sure you have yourself covered just in case he does go down at some point during the season. However,
Starting point is 00:09:50 he's got as good a duo of wide receivers as we'll see in the league. And, you know, a system that certainly favors the opportunity for him to put up big points. So while he doesn't run, that's a drawback. While you have the injury concerns,
Starting point is 00:10:02 it's huge drawback. The upside, if he does play 13 plus games could be immense. Yo, you want an argument against Tuatunga-Vailoa? How about Teron Armstead? He's getting older. He misses time every year. The splits with and without
Starting point is 00:10:16 Teron Armstead were absolutely unbelievable. I'll just pick one stat. How about the pressure rate? Or I'll give you two stats. That's the sack rate. With Teron Armstead on the field, Tua Tungabailoa was sacked on 3.5% of his dropbacks. Without Armstead on the field,
Starting point is 00:10:33 15.4% of his dropbacks he was sacked. The pressure rate went from 24.5% to 35.3%. So that was interesting with Tua. Well, that makes me want to check and see how he did when there was a quarterback pressure and uh i'm on my way to finding that out right now like did he still rank fairly well or did he struggle no he struggled when arms that didn't play i mean you remember the san francisco game i remember the san francisco game and that's san francisco but over the course of last year and this just this is another point in jamie's column he was eighth in the the NFL in completion rate when pressured third in yards
Starting point is 00:11:09 per attempt touchdown rate was top 10 only one interception when he was pressured he was pretty good quarterback rating was 91.6 wow well Tua led the NFL in quarterback rating, touchdown rate, yards per attempt and yards per completion. OK, let's go. Oh, before we talk about more bus, let's talk about voting. It's our last day to vote here. All right. Thursday, it's closing. The polls are closing. So get out there and vote at SportsPodcastgroup.com. Please vote for fantasy football today. We're nominated in the fantasy and sports betting category. This is your last chance. You do need to create an account on the site.
Starting point is 00:11:51 It takes about a minute, if that, and then just vote for us in the fantasy and sports betting category. We'd really appreciate it. And lucky you, this is the last time I'll tell you about it. So sportspodcastgroup.com. Also, you can click the link in the episode description. Thank you very much for your vote. You listen, you watch the podcast,
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Starting point is 00:12:33 You stay on top of all the latest updates, and it's totally free. Whether you have an iPhone or an Android, it is the easiest way to keep your finger on the pulse of every game that matters. Download the CBS Sports app. Quick news items here. Tyreek Hill says he's retiring after the 2025 season. Jamie, does this have any impact in Dynasty? I mean, it should. So if you're a non-competing team
Starting point is 00:12:52 and want to try and get ahead of it now, see if you can flip him for... I still think you can get your first-round pick for 2024. So not a bad move to make if you're looking to try and get a... You'd have to be looking at a mid-to-late round first pick because nobody at the top of the draft is going to be in – they'll be in the same boat as you are. But if you see the writing on the wall that your team's not going to be
Starting point is 00:13:12 competitive in the next year or two, not a bad idea to try and flip Tyree Kilmer right now. Unless, of course, he's just full of BS and just trying to get more money. Well, it's still three seasons. It's 2023, 2024, 2025, and then he says he's retiring. Well, he's only going to get worse. I mean, you know, age is, father time is undefeated, you know, so at some point he's going to start to slow down,
Starting point is 00:13:31 and then his production will fall off. And, you know, if Dave's buzz prediction is correct, we saw the Dolphins offense wasn't so much to as much as it was Jalen Waddle, but clearly the backup situation there in Miami is not going to make Tyreek Hill better. No, but I'm just saying it's not like he's retiring next year. You still have three years of him. Right, but again, if you don't think you're going to be competitive,
Starting point is 00:13:58 you're a complete rebuild. This is a small percentage of people that are probably in that boat. I'll start with this question. Would you rather have three years of Tyreek Hill or a career of Jacksonson smith najigba oh it totally depends on what my team is well if you're if you're going for it you're not trading tyree kill correct so you're not going for it it's the scenario you laid out where you're rebuilding you don't think you're going to be any better than fared meddling in your dynasty league
Starting point is 00:14:24 like i wonder if that's the trade that you try and make i don't know you're going to be any better than fair meddling in your dynasty league. Like, I wonder if that's the trade that you try and make. I don't know if you get it. I think people are going to be excited about JSN. I think people might end up being pretty excited about some of the other wide receivers and running backs in this, in this rookie class, you might have to settle for like one Oh nine for Tyreek Hill. Every time I see Jackson Smith and the jig was name and it's in one of my, in a Twitter feed, it's just people getting more and more excited about him. He's very good. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:14:54 You just can't watch anything. It's almost like we'll love us. You shouldn't watch anything from 2022. Go back and look at what he did in 2021 and hope that that's the guy you see. And I just learned the other day, his brother plays on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Yeah, Kanan. Yeah, pretty cool. Other news item here is that Baltimore's GM Eric DaCosta said it is possible
Starting point is 00:15:15 that the Ravens could draft a quarterback in the first round. And somebody has Lamar Jackson on his bus list. We'll find out who after this quick break on Fantasy Football today. Welcome back. All right. Dave provided Tua as a bust. How about two running backs? One of them was
Starting point is 00:15:31 the number one running back in non-PPR, number three in full PPR last year. That is Josh Jacobs coming off a season with 340 carries and 53 catches and over 2,000 total yards.
Starting point is 00:15:44 A tremendous year for Josh Jacobs. Why is he on your bus list, Dave? I have a hard time believing he's going to repeat what he did last year, especially after studying his body of work. I've talked about this before. He averaged anywhere from 14.1 to 14.3 PPR points per game in 2021, 2020, and 2019. His rushing metrics were off the charts last year. He did a great job. You can talk about his YPC, his yards after contact. They were all way, way up from where he was in 2021. You might say, okay, well, he was playing for a contract
Starting point is 00:16:20 and now he's doing it again because they got franchise tag. That's true, but he's a year older. You might say, and this might be the case for him, is it's Josh McDaniels and Josh McDaniels gave him all kinds of opportunities and ran a scheme that really worked well for him. And you can bank on it again. That might be a good case for Josh Jacobs. I'm just going to say that it's more likely based on what we've seen over the last four years that he'll settle in around 15 PPR points per game rather than 19 PPR points per game. And so I'm not particularly interested in taking him as a top six or seven type of fantasy running back. Um, maybe late round two, you could talk me into taking Josh Jacobs if he's still there, but I think someone's going to take him before that. I think he'll end up being a top 20 pick because of what he did last year. I'm looking at Fantasy Pro's consensus rankings.
Starting point is 00:17:12 I don't know who's in this. It's 17 experts. And Jacobs is RB6. It's McCaffrey, Taylor, Eckler, Barkley, Ken Walker, Josh Jacobs. So you think that's too rich? Too rich. Okay. Jamie, what about you?
Starting point is 00:17:32 Do you share this sentiment on Josh Jacobs? Yes and no. I think six is the, you know, to me, that's the high end of it, of where he's going to be probably ranked, probably drafted in terms of running backs off the board. The thing I think that's going to come down to is, I don't have a problem middle of the second round. I think if he's a first-round pick, then he's a bust.
Starting point is 00:17:54 But I do think that some of the things Dave said are still going to carry over for this year. I think the fact that he stayed healthy is a big part. He played a lot of games in his first three, three four seasons um not healthy and you know he you know that's to his credit you know he played through a shoulder injury played through some lower leg injuries um and and his production suffered as a result of that we don't know how healthy he was at any point maybe the same thing was the case last year he just was gutting it out because of the contract situation but the fact that he got the amount of work that he did with a new coach i think you got to say that that's the
Starting point is 00:18:24 most encouraging thing from what came out of last season. And then he just put the production on top of it. And so the fact that he still got the motivation for a new deal, the fact that the team is still going to be committed to him. I don't think they're going to all of a sudden turn to some year white and make more out of whatever's there in their backfield. It feels like it's still going to be his job and his job to,
Starting point is 00:18:40 you know, carry the offense 50 catches is probably unrealistic, you know, so I still put him closer to you know probably 40 as a ceiling but I do think that based on what this team looks like and what this coaching staff has put on him and what his ability is you know we've always said that he was capable of more and I think he finally showed it last year so I don't think he's going to be a 19 point per game type of guy I would probably bank it around 17 uh so again if you're taking him mid
Starting point is 00:19:03 to end of around two I think it's perfect if he mid to end of round two, I think it's perfect. If he's going ahead of that, then yes, I think he's a bust. But 15th overall, to me, feels like a good landing spot for him. Alright, look, I brought this up before with him. This is a very simplistic way to look at Josh Jacobs and his production. It's just going to be two numbers here. It's going to be his yards
Starting point is 00:19:19 per carry in four seasons, and here they are. 4.8, 3.9, 4.0, 49 4.0 4.9 two great seasons two pretty i think 3.9 4.0 is pretty bad um and then here is the pro football focus run blocking grade for the raiders in those four seasons 18th 26 29 17th. If you notice the correlation there, when he's had an average offensive or average run blocking team, he's averaged close to five yards per carry.
Starting point is 00:19:51 When it's been one of the worst, it's been four yards per carry. Maybe that's all it is. Maybe he's just played behind terrible offensive lines in two of his careers and that's why he was so inefficient. I don't know, but it actually does feel like, while
Starting point is 00:20:05 simplistic, feels like a fairly plausible explanation. And it was an offensive line that certainly overachieved last year. Alright, can you buy that argument, Dave? I would actually say that I don't think the offensive line gets worse. I think they started so many guys last year
Starting point is 00:20:24 that maybe had less experience than we would have liked or less to like about them, and they ended up playing pretty well. So it wouldn't surprise me if they were a middle-of-the-pack offensive line again. Okay. Let's go to a mutual bust running back here. You guys both have Javante Williams on your bust list. Jamie, what round does he go in that you say, okay, that's too early, he's a bust. Javante Williams. We just saw it. I mean, round two. So if anybody's valuing that high,
Starting point is 00:20:51 that's clearly way too soon. I think even round three is probably a little bit risky and when we start to get closer to August, round four might be too risky. Just the concern over his health at this point is the biggest thing. I think if he is healthy, he has a chance to maybe exceed his average opposition if it falls to the right spot. But I think anything in the first three rounds for Javante Williams right now is just too soon. So
Starting point is 00:21:13 I'm hoping he's going to be a hundred percent. It's a pretty devastating knee injury that he suffered. Uh, I know there's been some, you know, why are we, or I'll speak for myself. Why, why, why am I high on Brees Hall and not so much on Javante Williams? I think the knee injuries are different. And Hall seems to be recovering a little bit faster and a little bit better than Javante Williams at this point, just based on the reports and what the social media posts have been. So I feel more comfortable with him. But I think, you know, Javante is probably somebody that has a lot to prove before we can say he's back to being worthy of a top 36 overall pick.
Starting point is 00:21:47 Dave Richard. I haven't ranked 28th among running backs and would not take him until round six. Wow. I am very nervous about how effective he'll be even when he does come back. It sounds like they're in love with Samaj AP Ryan in Denver. The fact that they went out and chose him to be their guy to replace Javante Williams until Javante's ready and then guy to share with Javante Williams while Javante Williams ramps up. What's the runway look like for him to be the feature back for Denver?
Starting point is 00:22:20 And I want him to be the feature back for Denver. That's an offensive line that should take a step forward this year. You've always seen offensive lines play well under Sean Payton and certainly be a priority under Sean Payton. And we've seen running backs catch a ton of footballs under Sean Payton. Well, P Ryan's specialty when he wasn't the every down back and since he was playing on passing downs. So I think that role is out for Javante Williams in 2023. That kills the upside of him finishing as a top 12 type of fantasy running back.
Starting point is 00:22:50 Now it's a matter of what can he do on limited work while he's still working his way back from an ACL injury that seems to not be progressing as fast as others around the league. And that just makes me want to head for the hills on giovante williams let somebody else take him i'm curious where he is in fantasy pros and their uh their early adp uh he is rb29 it looks like okay so he's right around where i'd have these are rankings not um not... Right, right, right. Yeah. Right behind Alvin Kamara,
Starting point is 00:23:27 who's another guy we're going to talk about a little bit later. I haven't gone through every year of Sean Payton, but I started going through him with the Saints, and boy, you forget all the splitting. It's just Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush. Pierre Thomas and Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush. Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell.
Starting point is 00:23:47 Reggie Bush and Aaron Stecker got 115 carries. Bush had 157 and Stecker had 115. Obviously, we remember more recently Ingram and Kamara. Jamie, that history, what does that mean to you when you look at the Broncos' backfield? Do you think they're going to add someone in the draft maybe with the uncertainty of Javante Williams? And, you know, can anyone get enough? They get a lot of catches. That's the good thing. You know, they're all they're involved in the passing game, but the workloads, the splitting, what do you think is going to
Starting point is 00:24:15 happen there in Denver? I mean, I, I think a lot of that though is somewhat case specific. Reggie Bush was never going to be a featured guy, you know, based on what we we saw with his profile Alvin Kamara really didn't become that until sort of the end of Sean Payton's time there and then even so never the true featured type of guy that we like to you know you know look at and talk about so Javante certainly feels more of that that pro fits more of that profile but again you know Deuce McAllister was was sort of that mold um i think you make case pierre thomas was in sort of that mold but again different pedigrees for those two guys i think if giovante if you tell me right now giovante was 100 no issues never had any injury played last year had a decent season we'd be looking at him as a top 24 overall pick you know so if he does make
Starting point is 00:25:01 a i don't want to say miraculous recovery but makes a strong enough recovery that he's ready to go, training camp, no issues, looks the part, we're going to get excited about him again. And understandably so. And it probably will be to a detriment because he's going to split with Samadji Piran. I don't want to overvalue Samadji Piran. We talked about him on the Sleepers show, and I told you what Sean Payton said at the, at the owner's meetings. The one thing that he's, that he said, which kind of stood out, which is kind of lending more toward the Javante Williams side of things is he's a guy that's dependable. You know, I forget the exact word that he used, but he said, you know, he's, and he said, given our situation,
Starting point is 00:25:37 that's important. And so I'm, I'm paraphrasing, but Samaj Piran is not a very talented NFL running back. He's a good player, but he's not Javante if Javante's right. So what I'm getting at is I think if both guys were 100%, I don't think it would be a 50-50 split. I don't think it would be a 60-40 split. I think it would be Joe Mixon and Samaj Piran. They'd use him as a blocker.
Starting point is 00:26:01 They'd use him on some passing down situations. He'd have more stats probably in Denver than he would in Cincinnati. But I don't think Javante is the type of guy you'd take off the field for Samajic Pirine if they're both 100%. Looks like the most carries by a Saints running back since 2006. I didn't look at last year. I was just looking at the Sean Payton era. But no way anybody surpassed this last year anyway.
Starting point is 00:26:23 Most carries by a Saints running back, I think, is 244 in the Sean Payton era. But Kamara had 240 in 2021, the last year Sean Payton coached, and that was in only, I think, 13 games. So he got a lot of work per game.
Starting point is 00:26:40 Alright, anything else to say there, or are we moving on? Let's move on. Let's move. Move on. Yeah, let's move on. Let's go to Mike Evans. Yeah, I do feel like people are going to be hesitant to draft Mike Evans. At some point, I wonder if he could become a steal, Dave. What do you think Mike Evans' draft value should be? He's on your bus list.
Starting point is 00:26:57 I think he should be looked at as a number three receiver. And a lot of it has to do, a little bit has to do with age and what we saw from him last year and how he kind of took a downturn in production last year. But I think a lot of it has to do with Baker Mayfield, who over the course of his six seasons in the NFL, no wide receiver is more than six touchdowns from him in a season. And it only happened one time. It was Jarvis Landry in 2019. Only two receivers have had over a thousand yards from him. It was Landry in 2019, OBJ in 2019, that amazing Browns year.
Starting point is 00:27:30 Baker's had a bad throw rate north of 17%, not just last year. Each of his five seasons, each of his last five seasons, it's been 17% or more. It's been terrible. Off target rate on throws of 10 to 19 air yards, 20.3%. That's really high. And if you think that's high, listen to this. 20 plus yard air yards, 20 plus air yards. I don't know why I said yard twice there.
Starting point is 00:27:53 41.4% last year. Off Tony Stack, Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Lamar Jackson, and Marcus Mariota. Or worse, Brady was at 25%. You'll take a 25% off target rate from Baker Mayfield. I think he's a bad fit for what Mike Evans' game is. Evans, all of his touchdowns last year came on go routes. That's a bad route for Baker Mayfield. He's been terrible at it last year. 35.7% completion rate on go routes. It was 38% in 2021. He's, he's just not good at connecting deep, and that's where Mike Evans does plenty of his damage. Do you think Chris Godwin is also a bust?
Starting point is 00:28:30 Because he works closer to the line of scrimmage and has a lower A dot, I think he fits in better with what Baker does. I also think he runs a lot of the same type of routes that Baker is actually good at throwing. So I'm not quite right. Godwin isn't ranked as high as he normally is for me. I've got Godwin at 25 in full PPR wide receiver. So I don't know where the consensus is.
Starting point is 00:28:57 Maybe that means that he's a bust for me. But I still think there's a chance that he could PPR his way to a decent finish with Baker. Okay, Mike Evans. Would you take Mike Evans or, well, the next guy on our list, Christian Kirk. You also have him on your bus list. I know you're high on Calvin Ridley. Would you rather have Mike Evans or Christian Kirk? As of now, I have Evans ahead of Christian Kirk.
Starting point is 00:29:22 But I know that Jamie and Heath are big fans of Christian Kirk. So let's write that one in pencil. And when I get to studying the Jaguars, listen, I'm going to be excited about the Jaguars passing game. If I, if I think there's enough there for Kirk and for Kirk to get more targets than Evans this year, then it's easy to go with Kirk out of Evans. All right, Jamie, how do you feel about these two guys, Evans and Kirk? Both busts? Not Kirk. I do think Evans has bust potential, but it's the obvious situation from what a year ago was and Baker. So your question, I thought, was certainly more relevant, that does it get to a point
Starting point is 00:30:00 where he falls to a spot? Because I think everybody's going to fear mike evans enough that he becomes just a great value and dave's right he's the number three receiver i don't think anybody's going to rank him higher i'm curious where fantasy pros consensus as well um like if he falls to wide receiver 30 if he does he fall past that 29 29 Most people will probably have him in that 24 to 30 range. So, you know, when you start to compare him to, to Christian Kirk and, you know, Terry McCorin, and, you know, this could be a range for Christian Watson would be my guess, you know, in, in some people's rankings, um, Michael Pittman, you know, those type of guys, uh,
Starting point is 00:30:39 format will certainly matter, but, you know, he's still going to command plenty of targets, uh, while they will be worse targets than he's had over the last few years because of the quarterback downgrade from Brady to Baker, you know, he's still hopefully talented enough that age doesn't become too much of an issue. I think just as, as a number three receiver, it's, it's, it's not a bad gamble on what Mike Evans has been, you know, so. So, again, this comes down to what the investment is. To call him a bust, I think, is relative to where he's getting drafted. Evans still averaged 75 yards per game last year. That's pretty good.
Starting point is 00:31:15 You brought this up quite a bit. The pass interference calls, how much that impacted him, how many touchdowns and big plays that he lost on those type of plays. Part of that is not separating, so he's getting too much in contact with defensive backs as part of it. But we were getting targets from him from a 45-year-old quarterback that was going through a divorce and headed to retirement. So all those things have to factor into it.
Starting point is 00:31:40 Yeah, I just want to credit Chris for bringing that pass interference thing up. So right now, Fantasy Pro's consensus rankings, wide receiver 29 is Evans. Wide receiver 28 is Christian Kirk. So, Jamie, you did not agree with this. What is the bus case, by the way, for Christian Kirk, Dave? The bus case is that he turns into the number two target in Jacksonville and maybe even shares that role as being second in targets with others in Jacksonville, because I think Calvin Ridley is going to end up being the number one and
Starting point is 00:32:11 Kirk did a great job last year, but he had a ton of targets. He shared a lot too, but I, I just can't imagine him being as good as he was last year. All right. Yeah. He was wide receiver 20 per game last year.
Starting point is 00:32:24 Christian Kirk. He was terrific draft pick. He ended up being wide receiver 20 per game last year christian kirk he was terrific draft pick he ended up being wide receiver 12 overall he had seven games with uh single digit ppr fantasy points and they were pretty much all tough matchups five of the seven games were against teams that were top six against wide receivers but terrific year for christian kirk all right those are dave's bust evans kirk g, Javante, Josh Jacobs to a tongue of my Loa. Yeah. Let me, let me just say one thing about that.
Starting point is 00:32:48 I think those tough matchups might tilt a little bit more toward Calvin Ridley now, because if, if Kirk isn't the number one, he's never going to see number one, number one type coverage. So there might be fewer of those types of games from Christian Kirk. He's a number three receiver. He'll have a lot of games in between like 10 and 13 PPR points, and he'll have four or five weeks where he ends up striking big. The thing you're hearing out of Jacksonville,
Starting point is 00:33:15 especially coming out of the owners meetings, I still think Kirk leads them in targets. And so he's definitely not going to draw the tougher matchups because of where he's going to line up. He's going to be their slot guy. Jones and Ridley will be on the outside. It's just a matter of does Ridley have the opportunity to get more catches than Kirk? I would say if everybody's healthy, Kirk leads them in catches.
Starting point is 00:33:33 But Ridley should lead them in yards and probably lead them in touchdowns. I'll make the same comparison. I think if you hope for these guys to maximize their potential, you're looking at peak Godwin, peak Mike Evans. Big play receiver on the outside, that's Ridley. Slot guy getting more opportunities, that's Kirk. Trevor Lawrence, Doug Peterson, they love Christian Kirk. They're absolutely, absolutely in love with this guy. So I don't think he's going away by any stretch just because
Starting point is 00:33:55 Calvin Ridley's there. I think where Calvin Ridley's going to make a significant impact, he's going to impact Evan Ingram. He's going to impact Zay Jones. Those two players lose the most because Calvin Ridley's on the field. Christian Kirk, I don't think, loses very much. There's also a handful of targets vacated. Marvin Jones left.
Starting point is 00:34:10 That's 81 targets. I don't think Jamal Agnew's going to get 30 targets again. So I think that there's a chance that Christian Kirk easily tops 100 targets. But I think there's a chance that Calvin Ridley gets to like 130, 140. Yeah, I would say it's probably, if you're going to say who's going to lead them team of targets, but I think there's a chance that Calvin Ridley gets to 130, 140. Yeah, I would say it's probably, if you're going to say who's going to lead them team of targets, I'd say Kirk is probably in the 130 to 140 range, and I would say Ridley is probably 120 to 130. Right, so you're basically saying that Kirk will repeat what he did. He had 133 targets last year. I don't think he goes down by any stretch. Okay, Zay Jones was right behind him with 121.
Starting point is 00:34:44 I don't think he's going to get this. I don't think he gets anything close to 100. Okay. Zay Jones was right behind him with 121. I don't think he's going to get this. I don't think he gets anything close to 100. No. So there's a lot of targets that have to be made up for, even if Kirk stays at 133. I mean, goodness, if you take away half of Zay Jones' targets and then add on Jones and Agnew, you're talking about over 150 targets.
Starting point is 00:35:00 You're talking about a better Trevor Lawrence, too. That's exactly what I was going to bring up. You're focused on the targets, and you should be, but let's also focus on the passing yards. It was something like 4,100. I don't think anyone's going to be surprised if they're at 4,800 this year. They could just be a much better passing offense,
Starting point is 00:35:16 and he could average more yards per target. How many rounds should separate Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk in a 12-team league? One. Three. Right. Looking forward to having this debate for the coming months. We'll take a break.
Starting point is 00:35:33 When we come back, we'll talk about Lamar Jackson, Derek Henry, and more players on Jamie's bus list. Back after this on Fantasy Football Today. All right, everybody. Hope you're having an awesome weekend. It is Thursday almost afternoon for us, everybody. Hope you have an awesome weekend. It is Thursday, almost afternoon for us. And we appreciate you listening to us.
Starting point is 00:35:50 We've got great NFL draft content coming up soon. We're going to start turning our attention there. We'll get some guests on to talk about some of the prospects, get you familiar with it. Remember, when the draft does happen,
Starting point is 00:35:59 is it the 27th this year? I believe 26th. We'll have a recap episode on Thursday night and then on Friday night and then maybe Saturday or Monday. I don't know. It depends what happens on day three. But we'll be giving you instant reaction.
Starting point is 00:36:16 Okay, Jamie's bus list. Lamar Jackson, pretty interesting player right now. He was QB5 per game and that was while leaving one game extremely early. And that was in a six point for passing touchdown league. Uh, what's your bus case for Lamar Jackson? I think when he plays, depending on where he plays, he will be amazing. I'm just very concerned that he is going to play his amount of accrued games to get his year of
Starting point is 00:36:41 service. And if he's still playing on the franchise tag and not very interested in being the quarterback that we've seen so i'm just it everything just feels so off with with this and it's not him believe me when he when he's on the field he's going to be awesome if in fact he's compensated the way that he should be i hope baltimore and lamar jackson come to some sort of agreement and he's their long-term quarterback for the future but just everything feels like should he be in the same range as the top five four guys if you want to you know put Justin Fields their top five guys um is he better than Justin Herbert right now is he safer I guess probably better word safer than Justin Herbert right now is he safer than with just as much upside Trevor Lawrence right now like he's falling closer to 10 than he is to five and I hate that because I think he's a top five talent.
Starting point is 00:37:25 And so he just feels like, you know, we're doing early drafts. I mean, obviously that's part of our job. Most people are going to know the situation with Lamar Jackson by the time they're doing their drafts in August. So just take that with the understanding of what we're talking about here. But I just feel like this is going to be another frustrating season for him. And if you just want to get into the, okay, forget about all the other BS. He's not finished the last two seasons and you know, the, the weapons in Baltimore are not helping him, you know, so you, you, we could say they're going to do this. They're going to do
Starting point is 00:37:55 that. They're already talking about drafting another quarterback. It just feels like it's going to be a very, very frustrating season with Lamar Jackson. So I, I just, I'm just getting a little bit concerned about saying he's, he's got top five upside continually when he just might not anymore, you know, and that's just might be the harsh reality of where he's at because of his on-field, his off-field, his team, if that's his team, it just, just feels like it's a, it's a train wreck again, ready to happen. There is now, I think, a growing group of football fans and fantasy football fans that are anti-Lamar Jackson. Some people just don't think he's very good.
Starting point is 00:38:33 They look at stats and they say, remember the email we got last week? He's only had one season with better than this, this, and this. Why is he worth the contract? Yeah, people are maybe turning against him, and it could be like a Mike Evans situation where, gosh, is he going to slide so much that he's going to become value? But I will ask you this.
Starting point is 00:38:51 Let's talk about the quarterbacks that you think have the best chance to finish as the number one quarterback in fantasy. He's still in that conversation. Agreed. Does he have a better chance than Justin Fields? If he was signed to the Ravens, he has just as good a chance, if not better. I'll say he's got a slightly less good of a chance as Fields if he signs his franchise tag
Starting point is 00:39:21 and heads to Baltimore before training camp. I would say if he's playing on the franchise tag, I would say no. But if he's got a long-term deal, I would say yes, because then it's behind him. If the franchise tag is still part of what we're talking about here, I just don't want any cloud of uncertainty with Lamar Jackson. To me, anything that's going to, he's not happy. He's not, he's still dealing with his contract. You know, all those things to me are weighing him down.
Starting point is 00:39:46 Yeah. I mean, look at these comments from Mr. TD. Lamar has killed my team two straight years. Stay away, especially if he's on another team. And then Andrea said not drafting Jackson either this year. And then the best comment of the day is from Brian who said, maybe I'm a biased giants fan, but I'll take Daniel Jones later in the draft instead. Yeah. So right. I do think there's going to be some anti Lamar Jackson sentiment in fantasy Jones later in the draft instead. Yeah, so,
Starting point is 00:40:05 I do think there's going to be some anti-Lamar Jackson sentiment in fantasy circles, which I will remind people, two years ago that was what was happening with Joe Mixon. People had said, Mixon can't stay healthy, he's been killing my team, and then he finally turned in his best season. So you don't want to, just don't hold, like, he hurt
Starting point is 00:40:21 my team. Don't hold that against someone. You could end up getting too low on a player. Derek Henry on the bust list. Oh, man. You know, like, I see him. I think I took him at 23rd overall or something like 22nd overall in the draft we just did. I couldn't pass him up at that point. But I don't think he's going to make it that far in most drafts, Jamie.
Starting point is 00:40:43 What do you think for Henry? That's 100% correct. You know, so I think it's just a make it that far in most drafts. Jamie, what do you think for Henry? That's a hundred percent correct. You know, so I think it's just a matter of where are you comfortable taking Derek Henry? There's still going to be people that take him in the first round. What is he? Seventh or eighth and fantasy pros consensus rankings.
Starting point is 00:40:55 I'm going to guess he's not much further than that. And so he's eighth. Yeah. I'd rather have Jacobs. I'd rather have breeze hall. If he's healthy, I'm certainly going to take Kenneth Walker over him. I don't think Paul over him. If there's no competition. healthy. I'm certainly going to take Kenneth Walker over him.
Starting point is 00:41:05 Pollard? I'll take Pollard over him if there's no competition. Okay. I asked Pollard, yeah. Okay. Yeah. You know, so that team to me is going to be a nightmare, you know, just based on what they've been.
Starting point is 00:41:19 You know, they're asking Ryan Tannehill to be their guy again. Offensive line is certainly changing a lot of faces, and maybe it's for the better. But he's, he's been able to overcome father time, but he's starting to break down a little bit. The injury two years ago, still banged up a little bit last year. I just think that we're headed for the falling off the cliff season for Derek Henry. And I hate it because he's been awesome. And he's still an alien and all those things that we've said, he's, you know,
Starting point is 00:41:39 an amazing talent and hopefully he's headed for the hall of fame. But I just feel like this is the year where just everything comes off the rails for him. And you know, the fact that they've already talked about wanting to trade him, you know, you see the direction this is heading, you know, it's, it's just the, the time to, you know, trade Derek Henry and dynasty. You might've missed the window to get maximum value, but I would certainly explore it for sure.
Starting point is 00:42:00 If you still are able to this off season, I just think this is going to be the, the train wreck season for him unfortunately you agree dave i don't i i i acknowledge that he's an older running back and usually you want to stay away from those guys you'd rather get out on them a year before than uh the year that they do break down, but we, we've had the conversation about Derek Henry last year and he averaged 19.1 PPR points per game. And I think if that's, I think even if you lower the expectations down from there to 17, 16 and a half,
Starting point is 00:42:38 I think he'll come through. He dealt with a terrible offensive line last year, 19.1 PPR points per game dealt with a beat up ryan tannahill and even a game with malik willis you know the number i'm not going to repeat it so i think that there's still i think he can still kind of beat up people and rumble his way it's what he's been doing for the past few years i i do see value in him as a second round pick and the later you can get him in round two, the better off you're going to be. 33 catches last year.
Starting point is 00:43:08 That was big for him. That was a career high. We already talked about Javante Williams. Jamie does have a lot of players on this bus list here. So two other running backs are Alvin Camara and Joe Mixon. Camara. Yeah. I mean, nobody knows what to do with Camara right now,
Starting point is 00:43:26 because we don't know if he's going to be suspended. You know what to do with them is not draft him. Well, but at what point do you draft him? If he makes it to round six, you drafting Camara. If Joe, where did I get him in the draft where I just took him? Was that round seven? Yeah. It was the first pick of round seven. Mixon was a round two pick.
Starting point is 00:43:44 Yeah. That was, we thought that was a little early, but if he makes it to round four, do you draft Joe Mixon was a round two pick. Yeah, that was, we thought that was a little early, but if he makes it to round four, do you draft Joe Mixon? Jamie, give me your thoughts on Camara Mixon. Oh, I mean, if he's still in with the Bengals, he's not probably going to escape round three for sure. You know, but again, you know, it's, it's hard to sort of qualify these guys right now. Those two in particular, because you just don't know what the stories are with them. Really. I kind of approach this when you ask for this list, guys, I'm not drafting. And so these are guys really that I'm not drafting as opposed to where they're being
Starting point is 00:44:10 selected at this point, because we just don't really have a good enough gauge. Okay, then let's go on to your wide receivers. Well, we, some of us did this dance with Devante Adams last year, I was not really enthused to draft him in the first or, you know, right at the one-two turn, basically. Oops! He was amazing. 100 catches, 1,500 yards, 14 touchdowns for Adams. He was the number three wide receiver in PPR. Jamie Adams makes your bust list right now.
Starting point is 00:44:35 Early busts. Your thoughts? Just the quarterback downgrade, you know, and you could say Jimmy Garoppolo's had some, you know, good seasons with, you know, receivers. Never really full seasons, but, you know, certainly partial seasons with some guys. I just think this is a downgrade you know and and you could say jimmy garoppolo's had some you know good seasons with you know receivers never really full seasons but you know certainly partial seasons with some guys i just think this is a downgrade from where you know the the strengths of what davante adams does versus the strengths of what jimmy garoppolo does and so i don't think he's going to be terrible i don't think he's going to have a a bus season where you can't play him but i don't think he's
Starting point is 00:45:00 worth a first round pick and so you know i'd rather have cd lamb for example you know it's kind of nitpicking he's he's uh in that same range I was talking about with Josh Jacobs, you know, 15 through 20, I think is still where he goes, but it just feels as if Jimmy Garoppolo is going to have a negative impact on Devante Adams ceiling. And that concerns me, you know, we saw it last year too, when we, when he had company on the field, you know, when, when Waller wasn't there and Renfro was banged up, he was an absolute superstar. And then when those guys played to whatever impact that they made, they still brought him down a little bit. And so we'll see if Jacoby Myers and a healthy Hunter Renfro bring him down a little bit, but I think you
Starting point is 00:45:32 factor everything in together. It just feels like he's getting older, early thirties. Now another quarterback change. I think Devante could have a little bit of a downturn. Dave, he's a late first round pick. I don't mind taking him in that 11, 12 range in full PPR, non PPR. Yes. Round two for sure. Garoppolo shouldn't have the same type of learning curve as Derek Carr had in this offense because he's been in it before. And we talked when, when the trade, when, when it happened that Garoppolo went to Las Vegas, we talked about how Garoppolo just really doesn't throw downfield that much. And I looked into it a little bit more.
Starting point is 00:46:10 I think it's a byproduct of what he was asked to do. And just in San Francisco, they don't attack downfield that much. They want to get the ball out quick, short throws, let the receiver make a play after the catch. And in Las Vegas with Josh McDaniels, I think he'll have a few more of those opportunities. They'd be silly not to try with Devante Adams, throw a little bit further down the field. And it turns out that actually last year, Derek Carr's off target rate was higher than
Starting point is 00:46:35 Jimmy Garoppolo's. And in 2021, Derek Carr's off target rate was higher than Jimmy Garoppolo's. Well, I mean, when you're challenging down the field more, of course you're off target rates going to be higher. Sure. That's fair. Um, and it is overall completion rate was also higher for Garoppolo overall. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:46:51 We can look, we can look at the numbers from 15 plus area. You'd have to do that. Yeah. You'd have to do that. I'll do it. But, but,
Starting point is 00:46:57 but, but, you know, we're talking about this fit with Garoppolo and I want to get your guys opinion on this. I mean, I, I'm pretty sure we've seen Devante Adams have huge seasons with Aaron Rodgers not throwing the ball deep,
Starting point is 00:47:07 so do we maybe just see more catches for just a different style? Last year he was kind of more downfield, made a ton of big plays, caught a ton of long touchdowns, but maybe we just see a different version of Devontae Adams and he's just getting more catches, basically, on shorter throws. Could see a lot of that, too. Yeah. I mean, I think that's where they go if Garoppolo can't get it done deep.
Starting point is 00:47:31 Here are the numbers on 15-plus air yard throws last year. Derek Carr's completion rate, 40.7. Jimmy Garoppolo's, this isn't good, 34.1% off target on those throws, 31.5% for Carr, 22 22.7 for garoppolo that's not that bad for garoppolo that is pretty bad for derrick car the epa per drop back both over the past two years much better for car than garoppolo in this specific category so and certainly yards per attempt not as many attempts for garoppolo as there was for car you've got to hope that garoppolo can get it done if he's asked to get it done and if he's not asked to get it done then that does take away from davante adams yeah i i think it's
Starting point is 00:48:19 a really interesting question of do you ever downgrade a player who is getting old if he hasn't shown any signs of decline? Cause you're talking about your first pick potentially here. Do you want to spend it on a, what was he 30 years old this year? Yeah. Do you want to spend it on a 30 year old wide receiver? Do you want to spend it on a second year running back like Ken Walker? You know,
Starting point is 00:48:42 it's, it's an interesting, you maybe you could do both, but let's say you couldn Walker. You know, it's an interesting, maybe you could do both, but let's say you couldn't. You know, do you care about Devontae Adams' age? Because he's still a superstar. But that's how you, I mean, win.
Starting point is 00:48:55 It's however this decision works out for you. You gamble on him and he has another one of those seasons and you're like, okay, I took the chance and he was still superstar
Starting point is 00:49:02 or I'm avoiding it and you made the right call because you went with walker or you went with digs or you went with cd lamb or you went with you know whoever other player you have in that ranked quarterback you know whatever the case may be you know so i there's really i don't think a way to you know qualify that unless you just start to nitpick each player right well yeah i, yeah. I guess in general, do you care? And this is a Kelsey conversation too. Do you care about age on a player
Starting point is 00:49:30 who has not shown any signs of decline, but is obviously getting to a concerning age? I think he certainly should with running backs. I mean, they show the decline. Henry, I think, is showing some decline. Easily. Like Eckler, I don't know that he is, but Henry. Eckler has not shown any decline as of now. Where's the decline for Henry in terms of metrics
Starting point is 00:49:55 from last year to the year before? I think it's the last two years for Henry. His yards per carry have been much lower. After the 2,000-yard season, it hasn't even been close. I think the advanced metrics would also support that, but I don't know that off the top of my head. I'm looking now.
Starting point is 00:50:14 It's more of a philosophical question. He had the same yards per carry in 2021 than 2022. I know, but I think the decline started in 2021 is what I'm saying. I hear you. He was right around 4-3 or 4'4. Well, it's also the injuries, too. You got to take those into account also.
Starting point is 00:50:30 Body start rate. His avoided tackle rate was actually better in 2022 than 2021. Yeah, but how did it compare to 2020 when he was his 2000? Oh, I'm sure in 2020 it was much better for him. All right. Well, I think this is a good philosophical question. 5.4 yards per carry for Derrick Henry in 2020. Avoided tackle rate was the exact same in 2020 as it was in 2022.
Starting point is 00:50:56 The zero or negative rush rate, Adam. Yeah. The percentage of runs that he has that go for zero or negative yards. 15.6 in 2020. 17.5 in 2022 yeah that's higher that could be an offensive line thing too all right and the explosive run rate also went down from 2020 to 2022 deandre hopkins is on your bus list jamie and um well we talked about him earlier didn't we yeah okay we'll skip him sorry we did that one at the top of the show. Let's talk about Terry McLaurin, and then we'll talk about two 49ers,
Starting point is 00:51:28 and then we'll talk about going outside and enjoying 75-degree weather. Terry McLaurin is on your bus list. Just what? Not like, where's the excitement? Where's the fun in drafting Terry McLaurin, right? Yeah, and I think, you know, again, I'll critique myself because because again i i think where
Starting point is 00:51:47 he's going to get drafted it's probably not a bad gamble on you know a receiver that's being i i hope right ranked and considered as a number three receiver i still think he's the better of the talent he's i think he's a better talent of the two uh ahead of johan dotson but now he's got johan dotson there sam howell still the quarterback or maybe Jacoby Brissett. We'll see how this quarterback battle plays out. I don't think either one, unless Howell is just such a huge surprise, which would be fantastic is going to support two receivers playing at a high level. It feels like it's still going to be a very run heavy offense.
Starting point is 00:52:18 And so McLaurin has disappointed us more times than not since his start of his career in terms of of can he get to that next level we've been saying that can he can he take the next step can he become this breakout player he just hasn't done it you know and so I think he's a good number three receiver I think he should be drafted in the same range as Mike Evans and Christian Kirk and those other guys we were talking about I just don't know if he's ever going to get to crack that top 20 unless of course it's Sam Howell unleashing these guys and that's just a big ask for a guy that's made one start and wasn't projected to be an elite-level quarterback.
Starting point is 00:52:47 So I'm just a little bit concerned that his name may still get him overdrafted just a little bit. So if you're drafting him as a number three receiver, he's fine. If you're drafting him as a starter, unless your build is very unique these days, he shouldn't be a top-two wide receiver. I think Caleb Williams is going to be starting for the Commanders in 2024.
Starting point is 00:53:07 That would be great. And really, just to go back to Lamar Jackson, I think if their team had been sold already and they had the financial capabilities to sign Lamar Jackson and pay Lamar Jackson, they would have done it. Yeah, and the last two busts for you are 49ers, Debo Samuel and
Starting point is 00:53:27 George Kittle. Are they related? Not to blood-wise. I don't think they're related. But yes, the argument is related. It's more along the lines of you got... We don't know what Trey Lance can or can't become
Starting point is 00:53:43 if he's the guy because of Brock Purdy's elbow injury. Purdy's situation, the fact that he may not be 100% until early in the season, who knows how that's going to go. There's just so many mouths to feed in this offense. And, you know, while George Kittle was great at finding the end zone last year, he did a lot of that when Debo was banged up. Debo clearly is going to lose because Christian McCaffrey is there and not giving him the opportunity to get the carries that made him so successful two years ago. Ayuk is going to be part of the team unless there's a surprise trade. So you have another receiver that's in the mix. I just think there's just too many mouths to feed in an offense that is very content on still running the ball, going to feature Christian McCaffrey in a very, very uncertain quarterback situation right now.
Starting point is 00:54:17 So if you're getting these guys at the right values, again, the whole, the whole sentiment for me, at least I love it, you know, so if you can get kittle as the seventh eighth tight end off the board that's great but i still think he's going to push himself closer to the top five than he is going to be top seven uh debo's going to still be i think in the round three range i was fortunate because i don't think he's worth it and so both those guys i think you get drafted a little bit too soon based on what they've done over the last several years for kittle really the majority of of his career. Also starters. I think he's still my case. Debo's a starter as a number two receiver. I would prefer him as number three. But Kittle, obviously
Starting point is 00:54:50 given the nature of the position that he plays, still a top ten tight end, but it's just a matter of a couple guys I think that should go ahead of him. Yeah. Pretty much in agreement there. Kittle is tight end four in the Fantasy Pros consensus rankings and I think the tight end three ranking is going to be a really fun one to debate.
Starting point is 00:55:10 And you want to guess who it is in Fantasy Pros? It's either Pitts or Hawkinson. It's Hawkinson. Oh, okay. And it's Hawkinson. Then it's Kittle. Let's see. Tight end five is Pitts.
Starting point is 00:55:22 Tight end six is Goddard. Tight end seven is Pitts. Tight end six is Goddard. Tight end seven is Waller. Yeah, obviously one and two are going to be easy. Tight end three is going to be up for debate for sure. Kittle, by the way. I don't think it will be, though. You think it's going to be consensus Hawkinson? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:55:41 You agree, Dave? I do. I think there's going to be a Pitts camp for sure. They're close. I mean, Kittle was the number two tight end per game last year, but it was different. It was touchdowns this time. He caught 11 touchdowns with Brock Purdy.
Starting point is 00:55:58 He had a monster finish with Brock Purdy. Seven touchdowns in four games with Purdy. Deebo Samuel only played in one of those games. And then in the playoffs, Kittle had 11 targets in three games. Deebo had 22 targets in four games with Purdy. Debo Samuel only played in one of those games. And then in the playoffs, Kittle had 11 targets in three games. Debo had 22 targets in three games. I would say two games. You can't really count the third one.
Starting point is 00:56:12 Well, yeah, they both played. Sure, fine. In the two games, he had seven targets. I don't know how many Debo had in those two games. But yeah, the Philly game doesn't really count. All right, guys. Thank you very much. Really interesting list of early 2023 busts. And we will talk to you on Monday with some fresh
Starting point is 00:56:31 content. Last time I'm reminding you, please go vote sportspodcastgroup.com. Click the link in the episode description and have an awesome weekend. We'll see you soon.

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