Fantasy Football Today - Early Edge - Sunday's BEST BETS: Super Bowl 58 Picks & Props!

Episode Date: February 11, 2024

Larry Hartstein is joined by Mike McClure and R.J. White to dish out Sunday's best bets! Follow our FFT DFS team on Twitter: @FFToday, @Mike5754 @SiaNejad Watch FFT DFS on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today DFS on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Then sit back and let your matches start the chat. Download Bumble and so excited for today. Let's bring in the stars of the show, RJ White and Mike McClure. And also, guys, before I get to you and we're going to dive into the Super Bowl, let's take a quick look at the recap and how we did on the plays from Friday that have been graded. Looks like a three and three day overall. So let's do a little bit better today on the Super Bowl. And there are 40 or 50 picks that have already been officially entered on early edge shows throughout the week. And you're going to see every single one of them at 5 p.m. today going through kickoff. A cast of thousands

going to be on the show. A lot of people that you haven't seen throughout the year are going to be joining us. I'm very excited about that live stream today at 5 p.m. This is going to be a quicker version of the early edge, but I'm so glad to see everybody in the chat getting ready for Super Bowl Sunday. Mikey, I'm going to come right to you and talk a little bit about your Kansas City Chiefs. We know Kedarious Tony's not going to play. That came out. I'm happy because I have Patrick Mahomes to not throw an interception, and he is one of the guys who caused a lot of those or some of those 14 picks. Half of the picks that Mahomes threw, those guys are not even in the offense anymore, so I'm happy about that. The other news is Jarrett McKinnon is activated, but will he play? Is that affecting any props

or anything that you're looking at? I don't think it affects too much here. I think that it's possible that he could get in the game if there's some sort of injury situation, but I don't expect him to have a significant role here. I think a lot of it's going to be Pacheco. I think that we'll still see Clyde Edwards-Alaire spell him when he needs it. So I'm not factoring in the McKinnon factor really at all unless we get some sort of news that's way more definitive, you know, in that 90 minute window between inactives and kickoff. But as of right now,

I'm not letting McKinnon really impact anything I'm doing, whether it be props, DFS, anything there. As far as Kadarius, Tony not playing. I personally, I would have liked to see kodoni tony active uh as a chiefs fan and better in this game uh we'll be interested to see if mccall hardman has earned his role back or not uh with the additional time off because to me it does project as a game where those two speedsters would have a little bit of success in this matchup cole hardman scored three touchdowns when they played the 49ers last season he only got one snap in the AFC title game because he fumbled twice against Buffalo on two touches. But he was used in the running game and as a receiver in that matchup against the 49ers. And, RJ, before I get to your storyline, do you think Nicole Hardman, who I've seen 1,500 first touchdown,

1,500 any time touchdown, do you think he'll be involved today? If they think that they can exploit them the way they did that first matchup last year because he had three touchdowns in that game, I don't think so. Just based on how the you know, how their performance, his performance has been down the stretch. I think they've kind of reduced the touches down to the guys who are going to get touches. So I wouldn't make him a factor in that in the game. I'm not really worried about any of his props or him having an effect on the props that I'm going with either. And I have one more question for you, RJ. Early in the week, all the big money was on the 49ers. You know, half a million here, half a million here. But later in the week, we've seen a million come in on the

Chiefs. We saw Billy Walters, if you believe it or not, coming out and saying that he is on the Kansas City Chiefs, that he makes the line Chiefs minus two. Anything in terms of the sharp money that has worried you based on your Chiefs pick or validated you? No, I'm glad to see it came down. I know two and a half was available for a lot of the week at one book. Now that book has one and a half. Another book also has one and a half. So it's not quite down to one

and it's not going to cross to the zero. It looks like like it did last year. But I think the, with the higher limits later in the week and later in the process, I think the money probably has come in on the chiefs later and the 49ers earlier when you don't get as high limits for, for those big better. So I still like the chiefs here. Nothing there is taking me off of my pick. Love to see everyone in the chat. Please hit the like button and also throw in a couple prop questions that you have. We are going to get to as many as we can on this edition of the show. And we're going to come back with an interesting storyline you may not be thinking about. But first, let's hear from one of our sponsors. the 49ers are going back to the Super Bowl the champs are still in it headed to Vegas

RJ one thing I've noticed is Brock Purdy's attempts have come down. I'm on the under 31 and a half. I've got 10 plays up at Sportsline. Not all of them have been given out on this show. So check out my official plays there. But we've seen the passing attempts come down on Purdy. Do you think this game is going to be a run heavy game on both sides? Yeah, I think both teams want to run the ball.

I think that's how they have the most success. I know the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, but they've really been giving it to Pacheco down the stretch. I mean, he's had 20 plus touches in most of his last eight games. I think he's only missed two there. He's had a lot of production. He's got a touchdown in seven straight games. So I think he's going to be a big factor exploiting the San Francisco defense

that just gave up three rushing touchdowns to all three to different players, in fact, against the Lions. And so they'll want to do that. So I think that takes Mahomes passing numbers, you know, toward the under if you're looking at him, you know, and then you've mentioned the Purdy move. Everybody's expecting they're not going to put the game in Purdy's hands as well as he played during the regular season. He has had those meltdown games. This is the biggest game of his life. And Christian McCaffrey is your best player. So it makes sense to focus your game plan around the run game and maybe try to extend drives with the run, try to shorten this game. So the quarterback mismatch isn't as predominant here and not give Purdy as many pass attempts as we thought early in the week. So I'm not surprised

to see that number come down. I think it's going to be key for both these teams running the ball. I don't think McKinnon makes a difference because he was never much of a runner anyway into Pacheco's number. So I like playing some rushing overs. And for the most part, I like playing some passing and receiving unders. But I think there's some key players you can look at to go over in the passing game as well. Prop question for you, Mikey, from the chat. Mark Buchholz, a new father.

I hope Emma is doing great. He wants to know, over two and a half pass attempts plus 164. Excuse me, over two and a half players to have a pass attempt at plus 164. Mikey, what do you think? I actually like it a little bit here. I think there are a number of options and situations that could present themselves here, especially on that Kansas City side. But yeah, overall, both of these teams with additional time to prepare, both of them are very, very creative offensively. So yeah,

I don't mind taking a shot on that in this particular game. And a few people in the chat, RJ, asking about Chris Jones to have half a sack or a sack in this game. What are you looking at with Chris Jones? Yeah, the sack is going to be a little bit hard to come by. You saw in that first 49ers Super Bowl, he didn't really get the pressure up the middle as much. He would get his arms up and fill passing lanes. And we've seen Brock Purdy struggle with passing lanes over the middle. So I think that could be a key way that he has an impact. I mean, he didn't have hardly any stats in that game against the 49ers, and there was still talk about making him Super Bowl MVP

with how much of an effect he had. So it's going to be a struggle, I think, for him to get on the board on sacks. I think it's going to be more down to the edge rushers to do that. But, you know, one of my long shot picks is him to have an interception at 75-1. I think you can have a batted ball up in the air where he gets the pick because he's just filling up those passing lanes over the middle and making things tough for Purdy. And King Cozy says, Kelsey, any time touchdown?

I say yes. I mean, 13 touchdowns in his last 12 playoff games. We know he's a focal point on the offense. I do think it should be minus 110, minus 120. Kittle, anytime touchdown from King Cozy. Mike, do you want to take that one? Yeah, I don't bet a ton of anytime touchdowns, but I do not mind it. I think this is a great spot overall for George Kittle. And I think that we could see situations where the 49ers might actually be trailing in this game. And if they are, I think that's where Kittle would really come into play a lot more.

So, yeah, I like the Kelsey one, like the Kittle one, but generally not something I'm playing unless they're a little more longer shots than some of these. And Mo Stern in the chat, RJ, is asking about Debo under two and a half attempts. He said it's plus money, which makes sense because I had seen three and a half. What are your thoughts on the role Debo is going to have as a runner? I've heard a lot of commentary when I was out in Vegas talking to Kenny White, how he's just not been as effective,

is not as much of a surprise anymore as it was when they first unveiled it. What do you see in terms of his rush attempts? Yeah, when they first unveiled it, it was because, you know, the running backs they had weren't, weren't, you know, as effective and as dangerous. And now they got Christian McCaffrey and then the Debo Samuel carries kind of dried up because when you have the option of giving it to Christian McCaffrey, why are you giving it to Debo Samuel? So I understand this line coming down. He did have three carries against the, the Lions in the NFC Championship game. So maybe they make that more of a part of the game plan.

But it really wasn't used as much down the stretch as a runner. So I'm not really looking to play under. I think you're getting pretty solid value on that under at plus odds. So that would be the way I would look. I wouldn't be looking over in this situation. And Hef says, puppy bull under hammer it. Love that comment. I don't even know what the total is, but I'm with you looking over in this situation. And Hef says, puppy bull under hammer it. Love that comment. I don't even know what the total is, but I'm with you, Hef Sterling.

Guys, where are you going to bet that puppy bull under? Just kidding. Where are you going to bet Debo Samuel and George Kittle and Travis Kelsey? You got to go to BetMGM because new BetMGM customers sign up today, get $158 in bonus bets. You place your first wager of at least $5. You get $158 instantly in bonus bets, regardless of your wager's outcome. You use bonus code EDGE158.

That's EDGE158. Guys, we are going to be right back with more prop questions, more prop answers. And of course, our official plays after we hear this message. Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate? Don't let your project become part of this statistic. A quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime, financial penalties, and keep you safe. Don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money. Click before you dig. Ensure your next project is safe.

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There was a question in the chat about the coin toss, so I'm just going to say what I put out on Twitter, which is that ever since the NFL went to a place called the Highland mint in melbourne florida it has been 18 to 12 tails seven of the last 10 have been tails uh tails won last year my son who's eight years old said it's the tail end of the season you have to bet tails i'm per i i said that was great logic but i'm not personally betting it guys any thoughts on the coin toss or should we just move on? Only played if you can get plus 100. If you're taking any juice at all, it doesn't make any sense to play it.

All right. We had somebody ask about 7-7 as a first quarter score at tremendous plus money. Mike, I know you've been on a first quarter play. What do you think of that prop? Yeah, I actually don't mind it at all. I do worry about Purdy being super effective early, but I do think that it's a decent look. Both of these teams have been fantastic in terms of scoring and opening frames.

Both of them this season have been way better away from home in terms of scoring. San Francisco averaging 7.2 points per first quarter away from home Kansas City in terms of them scoring they've scored in eight consecutive first quarters in postseason play I would expect them to put some points on the board in this one so I don't mind taking a shot on that I believe that this is this was the score of the, uh, end of the first quarter last year. The only thing to keep in mind is if Kansas city does have success, they're very likely to take half the quarter or very close to it.

I appreciate the question, Josh. And I appreciate you tuning in because I saw you on Twitter saying last night, we've heard so much Superbowl talk. Is there anything new that you can give us? And I promise you with the official place coming up, you will probably get a prop play that you have not seen before. But, RJ, I want to come back to you because Elijah Mitchell is getting a lot of questions in the chat. Over one and a half attempts, over a very low yardage prop. You talked about how they used Debo because they didn't have CMC, and now they have CMC. But what about Elijah Mitchell? I think this only hits the over if McCaffrey gets hurt. I think

there's no reason for them, you know, even in a game where they're leading, you know, which we don't think is going to happen. They're leading big. Why are you going to, you know, ice the game with Mitchell if McCaffrey's fine? He wants to be out there. He's your most effective player. He has the best chance of getting you that win. So I think that, you know, I'm not playing that over. I could see Mitchell not being a factor in McCaffrey really being the only 49ers player to get a rush at running back. Okay. Well guys, it is time and RJ White, I'm going to come right back to you because you have brought three interesting props as our official place for today. And again, go to sports on

YouTube because we have given out at least 40 combined plays, probably 50, and we'll find out tonight on the live stream at 5 p.m. how many exactly have been released. But RJ, take it away. And I will add that whatever that number is, it's more on the site. We have 86 picks right now on sportsline.com.

If you remember, you can go get access to all of those. That includes, I believe, 12 plays from Jason Locke and Foro, who is leading on the site right now, up something like 22 units on his recent streak, playing very well in the playoffs. So go check out those picks. I have 11 up. I know Larry said he has 10 up. I put a couple extra up this morning that I didn't have up. So go check those out. Those are exclusive to the site. Here, I'm going to play Chiefs team total over 23 and a half. San Francisco's allowed more than 23 just once in their first 13 games, but three times in their last five competitive games throwing out that week 18 game. We talked about Kansas City capable of moving the ball with the run game. And with Mahomes, I think attacking the San Francisco zone, he's going to have a lot

of success there. Take whatever he can get from that defense and make a lot of smart decisions. And there's also a potential for a defensive score. If Brock Purdy's turnover-worthy throws turn into picks in this game, I think you can get a defensive score, at least a short field from the Chiefs in this game and make it easier to score these points. So I see them getting the 24. I think we have pretty good value getting 23 and a half over at minus 110. Second play is going to be on a tackling prop. It's going to be Trent McDuffie to have more tackles plus assists than Charverius Ward. When we put this

in my article of best 58 best bets or 58 best bets for Super Bowl 58, it was minus 115 on both sides. And the market has jumped on the McDuffie side. It's now up to minus 128. I think he's going to primarily match up with Debo Samuel, who is great at breaking tackles, but, you know, McDuffie's a great tackler in his own right. He hasn't had many broken tackles this year. I see a higher upside for him to get tackles in that matchup than I do with Ward, especially if they're sticking to the zone.

And Mahomes can avoid him a little bit and go to easier places on the field, maybe run some of their lesser receivers toward his side of the field. And he averaged nearly a tackle less in the regular season than McDuffie did anyway. So the value should be on McDuffie here, who averages about five tackles towards a little bit over four. So I like that one. And then the third one, I believe that one is available at FanDuel. I know it's not a lot of sites are going to have that. Third one is going to be a cross-sport prop play. We're going to look at the NHL, and we're going to go to Vancouver Connect's goals at the Capitals today

as a pick-em at minus 130 against Nick Bosa's tackles plus assists. So whichever number comes up higher, that's the one you win. Vancouver averages close to four goals on the season. They're coming off an overtime loss yesterday, looking to get on track against a bad, you know, mediocre Washington team coming off a shocking shutout win. They haven't been playing well, but they did get a shutout against, you know, Boston, the other best team in the NHL other than Vancouver yesterday. So I think it'll be time for a little bit of regression. They have their worst goalie,

I believe, going today. And Vancouver, I think it's higher upside anyway than the Bosa tackles and assists. They've gotten to five plus goals, 18 out of 52 games. And Bosa heavily juiced under three and a half. He's typically, you know, all of his games are two to three typically. So I think the most likely scenario has him at two to three, Vancouver at three to five. We have the higher upside there to get to the Canucks goal because they've even scored 10 goals in a game. And post is not even going to sniff, you know, probably half that. So I like getting the Canucks goals minus one 30 as a pick them against Nick Bosa tackles and assists.

Guys. I have never heard RJ discuss hockey. What like for one second. And so I think that was like 22 to one that you were going to come out here and give a hockey play on the Canucks. But we are going to go over that in the official recap to make sure everyone got exactly what RJ is saying. And there were a couple of field goal questions in the chat. I appreciate those. I think they're not going to be hesitant to go to Jake Moody because it's indoors.

It's perfect conditions. And, you know, Kyle Shanahan does not go for it on fourth down, at least throughout the season. Only 13 times. That was the second few or or the fewest in all of football and andy reed is down there too only 20 times 24th and i like both kickers today i like two field goals in the first half i like over you know over three and a half for the game because i think you have perfect conditions you have two coaches that don't go for it. Butker did not miss a kick indoors all season. Mike, do you want to chime in there? Yeah, I just wanted to chime in quickly on the moody side of it. I actually think they let him kick early. I think the biggest thing Kyle Shanahan and that team could do would be to let him see one go through in this environment. So I do think that they let him attempt a field goal early in this one. And also given the altitude and given the perfect conditions,

I also lean over on the 55-plus yard field goal prop that I know a lot of people have been betting and talking about this week in Vegas. All right, Mikey, let's hear it. One official play for this show. Take it away. All right, we're going time of possession. I'm going to bet Kansas City to lead the way in time of possession here. I think they're going time of possession I'm gonna bet Kansas City to lead the way in time of possession here I think they're gonna have a lot of success but when you look at

what Kansas City has done this season they've all but removed the big playability down field they're looking at this game 10 yards at a time literally uh and that's the way they've had success I helps keep the defense rested and fresh as well. But Patrick Verhulmes and the way Isaiah Pacheco can run the football here, I think they're going to have success sustaining drives like we've seen from them in the postseason. We saw it last game out against Baltimore. We saw it in the opening game against Miami. The Buffalo game was a little interesting, so that one kind of made some sense. But I think Kansas City, what we've seen there, I think they're going to have success offensively. offensively. I think that, uh, the team that's more likely to hit big home run chunk plays definitely the San Francisco side, but also the side more likely to

see three and outs as well. So I'll take, uh, Kansas city here, minus one 10 to lead the game in time of possession. I like that one a lot, Mike. And I want to come back to RJ for a second. Somebody EQ asked about the octopus. What has to happen for that to hit? And do you have any opinion on it? Yeah. So for an octopus to hit, you need to have a touchdown. A player scores a touchdown. Obviously it's somebody getting into the end zone. The team goes for two, that same player scores the two point play. So you have to get the same guy getting a quote unquote octopus, eight points in one scoring possession. Um, I, you know, the, you're not going to get value on the guests for that. So, I mean, it's interesting to play. Um, it's, it's an interesting thing to think about. It's, it's just throwing money away. Essentially, you know, you might hit it once in a while, but you're not going to get great odds on it. Uh, thanks RJ. And CapQuest

says both teams, two field goals, plus 300. I like it. Aaron Bailey says 2,600 for both teams to get a touchdown and a field goal in each half. Not sure I'm going to play that. And we're going to have a ton more questions on the show tonight at 5 p.m. You got to tune in because it will be a big, big cast of characters. I have one play for this Super Bowl and it is on this show and it is the largest lead under 14 and a half. Now I'm on the Chiefs. So I don't think the 49ers are going to get out to that big lead to catch this prop or to ruin this prop. And the Chiefs, just the way they play, as Mikey just explained, they want to have those long consuming drives. You saw what happened when

they got up big against Baltimore. They didn't exactly push the pedal to the metal. They want to have those long consuming drives. You saw what happened when they got up big against Baltimore. They didn't exactly push the pedal to the metal. They played very conservative. So I think this is going to be a classic Super Bowl, a close game throughout under 14 and a half coming back at minus 145. Love that play. I'm seeing 13 and a half out there. So make sure you get 14 and a half. Obviously that's a key number. All right, Mikey, our stand-in producer, thank you

so much for making this show happen this morning. Let's see the recap. Let's go over the official plays. Mike McClure, most time of possession, the Chiefs coming back at minus 110. RJ likes the Chiefs over 23 and a half points. He likes Trent McDuffie to have more tackles and assists than Charverius Ward. And then the hockey play that RJ is on is the Canucks goals minus 130 over Nick Bosa's tackles and assists. And then I am on the largest lead in the game to be under 14 and a half. So somebody could get up 14, nothing 2410, and we can still cash this prop. Thank you so much for everyone being in the chat, being active with your questions. We'll see you all at 5 p.m. Eastern. Sian Ajad will be hosting, Casilius will be here, Dave Richard will be here, and many, many more. We'll see you all at 5 o'clock

and good luck on the Super Bowl.