Fantasy Football Today - Early Edge - Super Bowl 58 Prop Bets & Picks Show

Episode Date: February 10, 2024

Eric Cohen is joined by PropStarz and Dave Richard to break down all of their top player props for Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas! ABOUT THE SHOW: Welcome to The Early Edge! The No. 1 daily sports betting show and podcast powered by SportsLine + CBS Sports. If you’re looking for today’s best bets, in 20 minutes or less, we’re the show for you. Every morning at 10am ET The Early Edge is live breaking down the day’s action across the NFL, College Football, NBA, MLB, NHL, College Basketball, Soccer and more! Bet $10 and Get $200 in Bonus Bets with BetMGM! New users just download the app, sign up for free and use promo code EDGE200! Just place your first wager of at least ten dollars ($10.00) and you will receive up to two hundred dollars ($200.00) instantly in bonus bets regardless of your wager’s outcome with bonus code EDGE200. Stream The Early Edge live on YouTube or catch up on the show after. We’re here every day and hope you will be too. Hit that subscribe button and turn on notifications so that you never miss a bet! -VIDEOS: https://www.youtube.com/c/SportsLine -SUBSCRIBE: https://www.youtube.com/sportsline?sub_confirmation=1 Looking for a specific game we haven’t covered?  Head to https://www.sportsline.com where you can always find best bets, picks and props. Any league. Any game. Any time. Both from the sharpest sports bettors in the business as well as the SportsLine Advanced Model where we simulate each game 10,000 times and provide projected scores, graded bets plus player prop projections.  If you like it, use promo code EARLY to get your first 30 days FREE! https://www.sportsline.com/join/ The Early Edge is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Early Edge Super Bowl Player Prop Preview Show presented by BetMGM. I am your host, EC. Can you believe it is our final show of the season? We've been here for 20-something weeks, and here it is, the last one. And before we bring in the stars of the show, let's recap how we did a couple weeks ago. If you don't remember, i tried not to hey listen i was looking at an oh and six until brandon and i you caught that long pass uh in the third quarter and ended up getting a touchdown uh so it was a little rough there but uh it you know dave killed it and uh we got some great super bowl props for you so

let's bring in the stars of the show and and I'll introduce them this way. We have the Patrick Mahomes of prop betting, the one and only prop stars. And I look at Mahomes as like future greatest of all time. Now, Propy is up 44 units in the NBA. That's like the greatest prop bettor on the planet. I'm just saying. And then we have the Christian McCaffrey of fantasy football experts, the best that we know. Is that a good comparison

we call him Uncle Dave Dave Richard from CBS Sports gentlemen great to be on with you one last time this season Dave I'll start with you are you okay with my comparison well I I think the only person that's faster than me on the planet is Christian McCaffrey and we're we're about the same athletically. We're about the same physically. We both have the full-on eight-pack. So I think it's a fair comparison. Propy, we were talking before the show about Uncle Dave's propensity

to eat wings during the show. I wanted you, before we get into the picks themselves, what is your favorite Super Bowl delicacy as you're watching the game? Great question, EC. I love Super Bowl snacks for the record. I think wings definitely in my top three. Also enjoy cheese fries. I like cheese steaks being a native Philadelphian.

Mozzarella sticks deserve some recognition here so uh can't go wrong with super bowl spreads uh obviously if we're deep frying foods you know it's going to be delicious so i like quite a bit but uh i do want to mention dave as the christian mccaffrey uh is very appropriate in my opinion because dave has tremendous versatility remember he is one of the world's foremost leading fantasy football experts, and then he also does props. And while those two do overlap quite a bit, they're also tremendously different as well. So I always give Dave as much praise as I possibly can, because that is not easy to go back and forth between props and fantasy. Dave does such a tremendous job. And yeah, guys, this is bittersweet for me. We've had such an excellent year.

It's been so much fun, guys. It kills me. This is the last episode for the next eight or nine months. But we're going to go out with a bang. I'm excited. We've got an awesome Super Bowl. We definitely have a lot to look forward to. Propy, you should be my agent the next time my contract is up at CBS.

And, guys, just a quick question. And, EC, you can be the one to answer. And, Alex, you can answer whenever you want. Where do eggplant sandwiches rank among Super Bowl meals for you guys? I will say just knowing EC's diet, I'm not sure how many eggplant sandwiches wind up in EC's as far as his palate is concerned. But if we're talking about eggplant parmesan, I do think is an underrated. But if we're just talking straight up grilled eggplant, that's going to be low on the list. Nothing against the eggplant. It is versatile.

I do like the fact that it kind of takes on whatever flavor you cook eggplant with, kind of similar to cauliflower. You can do a lot of things with it. If you deep fry it and bread it though, you cannot go wrong. So that would, that would be how I would present or choose to eat eggplant. If that's delicious.

Do you think I've ever had eggplant in my entire life? I would say I would put it at minus 400. The answer is no to that. Put it at minus a hundred thousand. The answer is no. Let me put it real minus 100,000, the answer is no. Let me put it down. And real quick, we were all discussing before the show how many wings Dave could eat for the Super Bowl.

I would like the chat to give their best answers. We had the line originally set at 13.5 over under. I'd say way over. Our producer Jacob of mine should be 19.5. That, to me, sounds a lot more appropriate than 13 1⁄2. Curious what the chat thinks if we set the line at 19 1⁄2. I do want to say we're talking about regular-sized wings, not those jumbo, you know, massive wings that are, like,

the size is, like, five, six inches big. We're just talking about your standard two- to three-inch wingstop wing. My mouth is only so big poppy i'm taking the under on on whatever you're saying just because you know i like to differentiate when one thing you know when you people dig i zag what can i say okay he sees a bonus wing kind of guy for the record and when you see listen later in the show when you see our super bowl picks you will see some people zig and others zag but let's start with 49ers drops and proper you're going to give out the first one brock purdy now i think brock purdy you know is this is this moment is not going to be too big for brock purdy but as far as his stats go, you actually are bearish. Why? Yeah, I'm fading

Brock Purdy here, guys. Not necessarily an indictment on Brock Purdy, more just because I have a tremendous amount of respect for this Chiefs' vaunted pass defense. This is one of the league's best pass defense, arguably the best, along with, fittingly, San Francisco and Baltimore, in my opinion. But no pass defense is playing better right now than Kansas City. They had an excellent conclusion to the regular season. Really got better and better as the season progressed. They finished top three in nearly every defensive passing metric. EPA allowed per dropback.

Defensive success percentage. They do a tremendous job limiting plays down the field as well. So I just think this is a tough spot for Brock Purdy, but I'm also going to choose to attack it. I'm going to go with the combination line here. I'm going to go under his passing and rushing line. It's interesting to me that you can get like nearly an additional 20 yards here on Brock Purdy because of one performance where he leaned heavily, obviously, on his legs against Detroit. That is an outlier performance. If we're looking at his mean versus median average, he averaged as a rookie over however many games, I believe it was nine games,

1.3 rushing yards per game. And then this season, that number jumped to nine. But again, he had a single outlier performance where he had a 60-yard rushing game. And if you take that away, he was only averaging around five rushing yards per game this season. So I don't think he's suddenly going to be a mobile quarterback that's relying on his legs. I think it caught Detroit's defense by surprise a bit as well. So I actually like fading his rushing line separately. Not quite as much to make it an official play, but I would definitely look under there. But yeah, this Chiefs pass defense is excellent every way you measure it. So I think it's going to be a tough day for Brock Purdy throwing the football, especially if we look at his completions and his attempts props. Those said around 30 attempts, 31 attempts. Yeah, I just think

they're going to limit his dropbacks. Also, we see San Francisco, when they have a neutral game script, they lean heavily on the run. That means a lot of Christian McCaffrey, which happens to be the weakness of this Chiefs defense as well. They're very vulnerable on the ground all season long. Teams are opting to run heavily on them. So it just makes a lot of sense that they're going to limit Brock Purdy's dropbacks as long as this game is competitive. Obviously, the spread indicates it's going to be a competitive game there. So I really like fading Brock Purdy under passing and rushing. If you don't have access to that line, I also am fine with fading his passing line, which is hovering in that 245 to 247 range.

And again, I even like fading his raw rushing line as well. Not quite as much, though, compared to the passing line or obviously the combination line here. All right, now that makes a lot of sense. Now we have a couple of different props related to 49ers passing totals. Dave, I'm going to start with you on this first one when it comes to Christian McCaffrey. Do you like his receiving yards to go over, or are you playing the under?

I'm taking the over, EC. Over 32-and-a-half receiving yards. I also got it at 33-and-a-half, minus 120. I want to preface everything that I'm saying with two things. Number one, I know it's the last game of the year. I know it's the Super Bowl. Please don't feel obligated to bet. If there isn't a bet you love, stay away, watch from afar.

Don't worry, there's going to be plenty of other sports for you to bet all offseason long. And number two, I don't think it's a good idea to bet anything that's juiced too heavily. So I eliminated any line that was minus 130 or worse. Lucky for me, this line is minus 120. So let's talk about McCaffrey going over 33 and a half receiving yards. One of the big projections that I'm making for the Super Bowl is that the

Chiefs defense will play a lot of zone coverage and pressure Brock Purdy up front. Theoretically, that keeps them from allowing big plays, but they will give up a lot of short plays. They'll settle to deal with Christian McCaffrey on short passes out of the backfield. And that's what's going to happen. When Purdy's pressured, it's happened, by the way, on 40% of his dropbacks this year that Purdy has felt pressure. Throwing to McCaffrey has been his number one option, especially lately. His target per route run rate has been 27.6%.

That's almost one out of every three throws that Brock Purdy is making when he's pressured is going to Christian McCaffrey. Those opportunities should lead to McCaffrey finding room to run against a Chiefs defense that's let up 6.6 yards per catch to running backs this year. That's good, but 7.3 yards per catch to running backs this year that's good but 7.3 yards per catch to running backs in their past five meaningful games bottom line is this I think McCaffrey is going to be the obvious engine for San Francisco in this game I think they lean on him heavily I think he's

exactly what they need to do give him the ball if the 49ers see a lot of zone coverage from the Chiefs. So first and foremost, Christian McCaffrey, over 33 and a half receiving yards at minus 120. EC, this is my favorite prop that I have this week. And Dave, how high would you go? I'd go fairly high. I think that he could end up with anywhere from 40 to 60 yards through the game. So you could ladder it. But I think as long as you're in the 30s

and you're not paying too much juice, it's a take. Proppy. I have three things I wanted to touch on. I'll make them brief. First and foremost, I like Dave's play on McCaffrey receiving quite a bit. You guys obviously, if you follow the show, know I dislike running back receiving props, but I always do say there are exceptions to that rule. McCaffrey being one of him because of his versatility, because of his skill set, because of the fact that he has a high, he gets targeted a lot and he's targeted on first reads,

which is really important because he was one of the few running backs that is a first read option because of the skill set. I do like, I also think it even pairs well with my fade on Brock Purdy because the Steve Spagnuolo defense is going to limit downfield passing. He makes a huge point of emphasis on taking away the splash zone, which you guys hear me talk about all the time, which is down the middle of the field. And as Dave mentioned, it leaves them vulnerable in the flats and the short area passing game. As Dave said, they will give up some of those plays just to prevent downfield passing. So I love the play from McCaffrey. I think Dave also made two phenomenal points there as well.

I just wanted to emphasize as well. The Super Bowl prop lines, all these lines, whether it's side totals, whatever, are extremely sharp. I mentioned this at the beginning of the year, during the year. My betting volume dwindles significantly as the season progresses. Once we get to the playoffs and Super Bowl, if I'm betting strictly from like a units won, units lost profitability standpoint, I am betting very, very little at this stage of the season. I even reduce my unit size and just my overall volume plummets as well due to the fact that these lines are extremely sharp. So, of course, if you're just having fun, I encourage everyone to bet, you know, within reason and what you can afford to win or lose.

But, yeah, I would also make that point as well. And Dave, again, made another excellent point. Do not take heavy juice at this stage of the season. With these lines being as sharp as they are, the margins and the edges that I have that you'll find are extremely narrow. And then when you factor in paying a heavy tax on that, it's just very difficult to win. So yeah, I think those were just excellent points. I just wanted to highlight that Dave made. All right, now I'm going to go to a play of mine of an over in this game, and then we'll get back to another key under.

I'm going to play Debo Samuel's over 78 and a half rushing plus receiving yards at minus 120. Now, I know, Dave, you originally liked, and you can comment on this here in a second, about his receiving line, I believe, 58 and a half, 59 and a half. But I actually like Debo Samuel to, as you'll find out later in the show, to have a huge game. So I think he can definitely hit this number on his own through the air.

I also think just in case, let's say McCaffrey were to go down, and we know that Christian McCaffrey does have his moments of not being as durable. Let's not say that. Let's not say that, okay? Okay, well, after he hits your receiving number, I want to see Deebo Samuel get some carries. He generally averages three to five a game, but think you know if you know we could get 20 yards from that 25 yards from that maybe he breaks one i think he hits this but here's why i think legerius need is going to essentially shadow brain and iu and debo samuel's going to move around the

formation and should be peppered with targets from brock purdy kansas city deploys two high safeties approximately three quartersquarters of the time. Against two high in the last eight weeks or eight, nine weeks, Samuel has a 35% first read share and 23% target share. I expect to see at least 10 targets from Debo, seven catches, six, seven catches. I think he'll have a big game. Once again, I'll say that over and over throughout the show. So I'm playing the over 78 and a half rushing plus receiving yards.

Dave, you originally liked his receiving yards. Why is that? Because I think that he's the perfect type of matchup for the 49ers to lean on as a change from Christian McCaffrey. Again, another guy who seems to thrive against zone coverage. You heard me mention target per route run with Christian McCaffrey when I said that he gets almost a target every three routes that he runs. Now with Christian or with Debo Samuel rather in his past five meaningful games against zone coverage, his target per route

run rate is at 27%, almost the same as Christian McCaffrey's and a little more than a third of his receptions this year have come when Brock Purdy's gotten the ball out quickly so if Brock Purdy doesn't have time to scan the field wait for somebody to get open further downfield I think that helps Debo and I think that's what's going to happen because I think the Chiefs are going to put pressure on Brock Purdy I think it's going to hurt Brock Purdy's numbers, but I think there's enough there where Debo could go over in receiving yards. Your prop is interesting too. I do feel like it's steamed up a little because of what Debo can do as a runner.

So you'd have to feel good about taking the over on that. If he did almost all of it through the air. And if that's how you feel, then just go with the receiving prop, which is 58 and a half yards. I like to deviate. Go ahead, Prompie. In addition to it being a good matchup for Debo for a lot of the reasons you both listed, I just believe in Debo in these high leverage situations.

You have Debo on the field, who in my opinion is a premier talent, obviously has had a litany of durability issues, especially recently. But when this guy is healthy, he is as talented and as versatile as any player in the NFL. And then when you're talking about the Super Bowl, it is time to fully unleash Debo Samuel. So I think they're going to manufacture a lot of touches for him, his yards after the catch ability. Very few players in the NFL history, frankly, possess. So I think we'll see a lot of Debo in this game. He's just a giant mismatch, getting him the ball in space as well.

The short and intermediate parts of the football field, I think, will be a priority. And I think it'll be a focal point of Kyle Shanahan's offense in this matchup. Just want to encourage those watching live, if you do have questions or want to submit some of your own props, please put those in the chat. And of course, like this video, as always, we will get to as many questions as we can. But before we do, I want to touch on kind of a shared prop here. Dave, I'm going to start with you. Both you and Propy are fading Brandon Aiyuk.

What's your play, and then why are you fading Aiyuk? So Aiyuk's number has been fluctuating. It's actually gone as high as 62.5 receiving yards. I would love to take the under on that. And I found it at minus one 10. He's proven to be the 49ers man coverage beater dominating targets with a 29% target per route run rate on the year against man coverage. It's significantly lower 21.8% against zone coverage.

And it's a shade lower than that in his last five games with Brock Purdy and with fewer yards per catch and much lower yards after catch per reception against that zone coverage. Remember zone coverage is all about trying to keep the big play from happening. The splash plays from happening if you were, and that's where Iuke makes his bread and butter. That happens more often against man coverage than zone coverage,

and I don't think the Chiefs are going to play a lot of man coverage. In fact, if they play heavy zone coverage, IUK will struggle to put up a lot of numbers no matter what. Furthermore, just 12, 12 of IUK's 81 catches between the regular season and the postseason have come when Brock Purdy's gotten the ball out quickly. That's two seconds or less. So, again, if Purdy's pressured, that means he's got to get the ball out quick. Then you throw LeJarrius Sneed on top of it. He's been a great shutdown corner. I think he can run with Brandon Ayuk if push comes to shove. Bottom line is this.

I think Brandon Ayuk's going to have a hard time putting up big numbers, and the line feels a little inflated because when you think of Brandon Ayuk, you think of those big highlight reel plays, and people want to take the over on it. I don't think that's the play here. I'm taking under on Iyuk. Okay, so that's fair. Now, Propy, you have a couple of props on Iyuk. You have not only his under receiving yards, but his under on receptions. Explain both of those. I like them both quite a bit. And if you'll notice, I have three official picks and only two props posted on the site. And I pounced on both of these lines right when they opened as well. And that was obviously intentional. And again, it further illustrates how my betting

volume significantly decreases at the stage of the season and just how sharp these lines are. But, yeah, I firmly believe that fading Ayuk is the biggest edge that I have found so far. So I'm on his under 63.5 receiving yards. I believe the number is presently 62.5, which we'll reference for this stream. But I got it at 63.5 because I did feel it was three to five yards too high when it originally opened. I'm also fading his under 4.5 receptions. I like both of these plays quite a bit.

Obviously, Dave made a tremendous case for him as well. And I would just also add that with Iyug. Just not clicking right now with Brock Purdy. If we look at the previous two games against Detroit, against Green Bay, who are both subpar pass defenses, both rank in the bottom five in nearly every defensive passing metric. 14 targets for six receptions for 100 yards, and we know 50 of those yards came on a pass that was pretty much a fluke that bounced off the defender's helmet. So it is not happening for Brandon Ayuk down the field right now. Now he's going to face the vaunted elite Kansas City pass defense, which is way more viable, in my opinion, and just a much more difficult matchup. So, yeah, I just think this is a really good spot to fade Ayuk.

I think five receptions, considering his ADOT, considering his role, considering that he's primarily being used down the field is a huge ask for him. He's really not pivoting and they're not using him over the short and intermediate parts of the field. So I think five receptions, even in a plus matchup for Iyuk, is a tough number for him, especially considering 10 targets one time during the regular season. I don't see it happening versus Chiefs team as well. Again, I think they focus more on the short and intermediate parts of the field, the pass catchers who operate in those parts of the field.

And, yeah, I just think fading Iuke right now is a really good look, both his receptions and both his receiving yards. When it comes to synergy, let me just say this. You two agreeing on a pick makes me want to go hammer it. So I'll tell you, I like Debo a lot, and you guys are fading Iuke. That makes me feel so good. Dave, question from the chat. Big Cheesy wants to know, anyone like Eli Mitchell over three and a half rushing yards?

I actually looked at this one. Doesn't he have over this in his last seven games? I don't think he had a carry against Green Bay. Did he? Yeah yeah was he active against green bay he was but he just the game was close and they didn't bring him in yeah okay uh well the game was close against detroit and he ended up playing well but didn't mccaffrey get dinged up or something like that at the end of the game yeah and then mitchell came in and he had a touch i i love it i think that you're not asking for a whole lot here, and there are a lot of ways that this could go over.

And I almost think of this as almost like a hedge that you can play with any McCaffrey over prop, and there's a real chance you win both the McCaffrey over prop and the Elijah Mitchell over three and a half measly yards. He could get that on one carry, much less two or three carries. Proppy, any thoughts on Kyle Juszczyk? I know it's a very popular play. We were talking about it before the show.

I have a friend who hammered it. I mean, it's his favorite prop of the game. But you think it's a sucker bet. I would say Juszczyk over half a reception or three and a half yards, I don't care that it opens at half a yard, is the single worst prop that I have seen bet in the Super Bowl, especially when we consider the fact that it's minus 150 for a half a reception for a fullback who how many times has he eclipsed two targets all season long

would not shock me whatsoever if he's not targeted a single time. It does not matter to me whatsoever that he has a reception in five consecutive games. We're talking about this game. Whatever happened in the past is not significant and does not impact whether or not he's a part of the game plan here. So we're talking about 30-31 Brock Purdy dropbacks. And at best, Juszczyk will have one to two targets. And you're going to pay minus 150 for him to have a reception. It's just not a good spot whatsoever. It's not where I would be putting my money.

Even if you got this at even odds or close to even odds or like minus 115, I would encourage you not to bet here just because he could easily, again, there's just no target floor here. We're just talking about a guy who's at best a tertiary option. He's not going to be a first read as far as the pass catchers are concerned for San Francisco. So yeah, this would just be the epitome, in my opinion, of a sucker's bet. I would avoid this at all costs. And again, I'm hopeful, I hope for everyone who's bet this, that he has, you know, the first target of the game, finishes with double-digit targets, ends up being the Super Bowl MVP.

That would be phenomenal. But yeah, I just do not think this is a wise play whatsoever. I think Steve Spagnuolo is getting fired if Kyle Juszczyk has double-digit catches or whatever you just said. I hesitate to say this, but I disagree with literally everything you just said, except for one thing, properoo, and that's the VIN. The price. Yeah. At even money, I would take this because you know that Kyle Shanahan

is looking for his most reliable targets to be utilized, and McCaffrey's one of them, and Debo's one of them. Kittle will probably one of them to a degree. We already made the argument that Iyuk isn't going to be one of them. This dude's going to be on the field a lot. And if the Chiefs are playing zone coverage, it wouldn't be a shock to me in the least. Two ways.

Number one, on an unscheduled play, we see Purdy throw it short to Kyle Juszczyk. Or number two, inside the five yard line they use play action and Juszczyk catches a touchdown you did say Alex that you wouldn't take you wouldn't take the over even at even money so I gotta ask would you be down for an even money Super Bowl showdown on Kyle Juszczyk over a half catch? Dave, I am your Huckleberry. Let's dance. Jacob, hit the music.

Music. It's going to be a showdown. What has this show come to that we are betting props on one catch by a fullback? Yes. In the Super Bowl. A very versatile fullback, I will add, EC, of course. Again, I'm a fan of Kyle Usha. He's a phenomenally talented fullback.

I like the fact that he's kind of like the last of the Mohicans of the fullback. Very few teams still deploy a fullback. I recognize the guy is a very good football player. I'm a fan of his personally, but I like to bet on things I can control. And this is not one of them, frankly, if we look at the back. Yeah. I want to ask you one because Michael's given us some grief here in the chat.

Do you have anyone for when it comes to 49ers, any favorites for over reception totals? Is there any player, even like a Juwan Jennings at one and a half, Debo's four and a half laying some juice. You don't like IU, McCaffrey, as Dave kind of mentioned with his yards earlier. Is there one player for the Niners that you would take as over receptions? Yeah, I like Debo Samuel quite a bit in this matchup. I'd go over four and a half receptions for Debo. I don't have a problem with Juwan Jennings, although that wouldn't be a spot that I would look to highlight. But if you feel like you have an edge there, I don't mind that. I like Christian McCaffrey quite a bit as

well. So yeah, there are 49ers pass catchers I like. But again, looking at this matchup, if we're looking at 30 pass attempts, which I think is the range of outcomes most likely for Brock Purdy, especially considering that is what his projected total is. When we're talking about 30 attempts, that's not very many, especially if we're looking at, you know, seven to eight for Debo. If we go down the line, George Kittle is going to have between five and eight. It just does not leave a lot of other targets for these complementary, secondaryiary options so i prefer to go where i know those looks will be which again it's going to be george kiddo which is going to be

debo samuel which is going to be christian mcafree not for these options who aren't first reads in the offense things have to go awry which they often do but they have to go awry in order for him to get targets i'd rather bank on what i know will happen which is going to be first reads and we can identify who those are now uh using analytics and just kyle ushek is not a first read in this offense basically ever they do two things one we are getting a fired up prop stock so i like to see that and number two, hand in hand with the over on those receptions, I'm on board with it. Deebo McCaffrey especially, don't pay too much juice.

EC, you know better than anybody. You don't want to overpay for any of these bets. If you see it at minus 135, minus 140, just either like the tiniest of sprinkles or just take a step back. The only time I'm willing to pay juice is on an under, and we know why that is because there's just frankly so many more ways for an under to come in uh whether it be a player getting injured a player getting demoted a player just not being on the field there's just so many more ways for it under to come in so much has to go right if we're even looking at five receptions for a good player he has to stay on the field first and

foremost he has to be targeted heavily. He has to create separation from the DB. There's just so much that has to go right. So I'm very rarely going to pay a significant price when so much has to go in our favor in order to cash it over. Now, where can you play this Kyle Juszczyk prop and every other prop that we've discussed thus far? At BetMGM. And by the way, BetMGM has a prop bet challenge going on right now. They are giving you the opportunity to win big on the big game with their big game prop bet challenge.

Find it in the promotions tab on the BetMGM Sportsbook. BetMGM Sportsbook account holders who create an entry in the BetMGM big game prop bet challenge have an opportunity to win up to $58,000. They predict the most big game prop bet questions correctly out of the eligible users. Good luck. That's all I'll say about that. I wonder if Kyle Juszczyk has a prop bet challenge in there. We'll find out.

That's why you have to go to BetMGM.com and find out. But before we get to Kansas City Chiefs props, let's hear from one of our sponsors. For a limited time, switch to Shopify point of sale and you could save up to 20% and improve your bottom line. We're so serious about savings, we've made this ad 20% shorter. That means you get six seconds back. Just enough time to visit Shopify.com slash POS20. Now that's an efficient ad.

Eligibility requirements apply. See Shopify.com slash POS20 for details. It's so incredibly cool that the Super Bowl is on our channels, on CBS and Paramount+. The coverage, I think, six and a half hours before the game. I mean, that's, I can't even imagine. But there's a lot of great stuff. I think, six and a half hours before the game. I mean, that's I can't even imagine. But a lot of great stuff. I think they're opening up with something about the NFL today from the 70s with Brent Musburger and Jimmy DeGreek.

An hour on that, something like that. So I'm looking forward to watching that. Might have to set the DVRs. I'll be out at the Phoenix Open. But, hey, what can I say? All right. It is time for Kansas City Chiefs props. And we're going to start with you, Proppy.

You have one on. you have an over. So we want to start with a positive. We like overs. You just went on a rant about unders. It's a lot easier to hit unders. But you like Isaiah Pacheco this week. Tell us why. Yeah, this is the single over I am betting this week.

And it's Isaiah Pacheco over 66-and-a-half rushing yards. I'm going to continue to ride Isaiah Pacheco, something we've done all throughout the postseason and, frankly, during the regular season as well. Just been so impressed with both Isaiah Pacheco's ability running the football, coupled with the fact that Andy Reid, for the first time I've ever seen him during his coaching tenure, dating back to even when he was the coach of the Philadelphia Eagles,

and he had Brian Westbrook and various other quality running backs. He has really committed to a balanced approach, and we're just seeing Isaiah Pacheco get a ton of carries, 24-plus carries in two of the Chiefs, three playoff games already. And we look at the San Francisco defense. They are vulnerable against the run. This is not the same San Francisco defense that's been an elite run defense like they have been previously or historically over the past however many

years consecutively during Kyle Shanahan's entire tenure as the coach, even dating back to Harbaugh when he was coaching San Francisco. But, yeah, this is a more vulnerable run defense. 25th in EPA allowed per rush during the regular season. We also saw teams, while it didn't happen often, but when teams had a neutral or positive game script against San Francisco, they opted to go very run heavy. We saw in the first, the two playoff games that the San Francisco's already played

as well in the postseason against Detroit, who opted to go run heavy, had a lot of success. And then Green Bay, who had a tremendous amount of success with Aaron Jones running the football. So we're looking at the path of these resistances, I like to say. I think Isaiah Pacheco is going to be the focal point and heavily involved in this game plan. Obviously, when you have Patrick Mahomes under center as well, you have to commit a lot of resources to slowing him down and pay a lot of attention. Mahomes is playing at an exceptional level right now.

So I do believe that Isaiah Pacheco is going to get a big dose, a lot of work, I think 66 yards, as well within his range of outcomes and more likely than unlikely to go over this total, as I projected to have, between 15 and 18 carries in this game. Game being close as well, as we know, with nearly a pick-em. So yeah, I think Isaiah Pacheco is in line for a ton of work, and I think he's going to eclipse 66 and a half rushing yards. All right. I like that one, Proppy. Now, if that were to happen, then Dave's pick is probably going to be a winner, and that's a Patrick Mahomes prop.

Dave, what are you thinking about Mahomes passing yards on Sunday? This is the most dangerous Patrick Mahomes bet that you can make. I'm taking the under on 262 and a half passing yards at minus 115 betting against Mahomes. Oh, it's dangerous for so many reasons, but it feels like I'm baiting the public here. This is another line that just feels steamed up to me. People are excited about Mahomes. People are excited about Travis Kelsey. They're taking the overs. We are almost like genetically designed to look at overs and take overs,

but not me. Not this time. He's been under 250 yards in four of his past five games. I'll say it again. Under 250 yards in four of his past five games. And the Niners haven't allowed 260 yards passing in five of their past six games. The Niners have been good against the pass all year, be it deep throws or short throws. In their past four meaningful games, they've held quarterbacks to 6.4 yards per attempt,

only five completions on 14 pass attempts of 20-plus air yards. EC, I'm not even sure which number is more impressive, the fact that they've only allowed five catches of 20-plus yards in their last few games, or that they've only seen 14 such throws in those games. Mahomes also, and this is a big thing, like the Pacheco thing is huge, but this is big. Mahomes has not been nearly as aggressive in his past five games. His average depth of target, meaning the distance that the ball travels when it leaves the line of scrimmage

and gets to the receiver, it's at 5.7 yards. His deep pass rate, 13.1% of his throws. Those are both really low, especially for him. And like we've talked about, there's a legit shot. The Chiefs will be able to run the ball just like the Lions did, the Packers did, the Commanders did, the Ravens did. That was with Lamar, not the running backs. And the Cardinals did. Those are the last five opponents this 49ers defense has faced. So I love the Pajaco call and just go hand in hand.

Let's hold hands, everybody. Patrick Mahomes, under? Yeah, under. 262 and a half passing yards at minus 115. Oh, I'll tell you what, Dave. That one is tricky. Proppy, go ahead. I really like that play from Dave quite a bit as well.

My full endorsement. I was waiting on this line. Very good chance that I make it an official play. I'm hoping this line steams up. Typically with props, as we see, Super Bowl props, we have two weeks. We know the public likes to just hammer overs. If we're primarily betting unders, which we know are already sharper than uh overs we can wait those wait for those two weeks these numbers are just gonna get bet up over the course

of the two weeks and then the within 24 hours or close to kickoff uh usually presents the best value if you are in fact going to take an under here uh which i was planning to do with the homes as being a great example this could potentially tick up a few more yards, so you just get a little extra value. So if you are looking for unders, I would encourage you to wait close to the kickoff because these lines will continue, prop lines will continue to increase and get steamed up as the majority of the public are going to bet overs.

Well, so guess what? Just as you say that, Propy, I'm betting it over. Patrick Mahomes over 25 and a half rushing yards. All right, if Dave's going to hit and he's not going to throw for this yard, well, he's got to run for something, right? This one is at minus 125 on BetMGM. San Francisco's allowed the 11th most quarterback rushing yards this season, a little over 330. In Mahomes' last 15 playoff games, he's averaging 26 and a half rushing yards per game. He's over in about half of his games this season, nine of 19, so a little under half,

but he has five or more rushing attempts in six of his last 11 games. I expect that we'll see five carries from Mahomes, a double-digit run, maybe a 12, 13-yard run. Dave, are you with me here? Is that like a synergy play with your under in his passing yards? I am.

I want to give you a couple of other stats on this rush number. First of all, I think they came to this line because in his career in the playoffs, 20 games, he's averaged 26.9 rushing yards per game. So I almost wonder if the algorithm that the odds makers use just kind of spit out this number and the odds makers are like, cool, let's go with it. This is from my colleague Heath Cummings from Fantasy Football Today. In the regular season, Mahomes has averaged 20.2 rushing yards per game. In the playoffs, non-Super Bowl games, 25.1. We're trending upward.

In three Super Bowl games, he's averaged 35.3 rushing yards and at least 29 rushing yards in all three. So if you dig history and you think that Patrick Mahomes, when he does have to move out of the pocket and he just takes off against a 49ers defense that honestly is a little bit overrated in terms of pass rush and run defense then I think you take this over I like the call EC Propy thank you that's actually a great call by your colleague Heath Dave uh it's actually uh proven across the board I think, with all quarterbacks,

not all, but the majority of quarterbacks in high leverage situations, they tend to average a lot more rushing yards. That same is applicable to Josh Allen. Basically, any quarterback that possesses a modicum of mobility, they tend to run a lot more in these high leverage playoff games. So, yeah, that actually is applicable, again, to pretty much any quarterback that can rely on their legs. So I like the look as well. lot more in these high leverage playoff games so yeah that actually uh is applicable again to pretty much any quarterback uh that can rely on their legs so i like the look as well all right proppy you're also when we're talking about patrick mahomes passing yards you're going to

fade rashid rashid rice the rookie you know big game biggest game of his career by far i mean you can say that about a lot of players in this game. But this number for his reception total seems overinflated to me, and you like the under. Tell us why. Yeah, we're going under. Again, I love Rishi Rice. Under six and a half receptions. Unsuccessfully faded Rishi last week with the same exact line versus Baltimore.

But we saw Mahomes attempt 40 passes and have 31 completions or over 30 completions, and nine or eight of those, excuse me, eight of those went to Rishi Rice. So I just don't see that being the case this week in this matchup against San Francisco. San Francisco also has an excellent pass defense, and I do believe, again, when we look at the path of least resistance and we look at how Kansas City is going to opt to attack them, I think it's going to be a very balanced approach,

and we're going to see a lot of Isaiah Pacheco. I just don't think we're going to see a lot of passing volume from Patrick Mahomes, and it will require, as we saw last week, a tremendous amount of volume, in my opinion, for him to have seven-plus receptions in this game. I also think San Francisco's defense, again, will be physical at the line of scrimmage, especially with the way that, again, Dave made a great point regarding Mahomes not really driving the ball down the field, really kind of focusing on the short area as well. So I think we're going to see them jam the receivers at the line of scrimmage. The San Francisco's defensive backs, I just think seven receptions will require really Patrick Mahomes to air the ball out quite a bit,

which I don't anticipate happening in a neutral or competitive game environment. So, yeah, I think under six or yeah, I think under six and a half receptions is a really good look for fading rice here. Dave, how do you feel about Travis Kelsey in this game? We haven't talked about him yet. None of us have props on Kelsey. Obviously, the story with the Taylor Swift and no, we're not going to make prop bets on how many times she's shown or what color outfit she's wearing. How's Kelsey going to do? I mean, are we talking big game, small game? Your thoughts? I think Kelsey will be very much involved. And we know that this is certainly the type of matchup and the type of moment where he could see double digit targets. And so, yes, you can look at the over on what is it, six and a half, but. That's at plus money. Yeah. He's had seven or more receptions in two of his three playoff games, but he also has seven receptions in just 12 of 21 career playoff games,

eight plus receptions in four games all year long. That makes me a little bit nervous to go with anything with Travis Kelsey. I think the public is going to push this number up, up, up. That's going to make the juice very, very expensive. I don't think I want to play anything with Travis Kelsey. I think I'll just enjoy watching him get those short underneath

throws from Patrick Mahomes and be the change up when they can't run the ball or when they decide not to run the ball. I shouldn't say can't run the ball because I think they're going to be able to run the ball. Propy, you have one more play for Kansas City, and we're going to the defensive side of the ball. We haven't done many defensive props on the show, at least that I can remember over the last several weeks or longer than that, but you're going with the Chiefs. A thought on the Chiefs' defense. What is it and why?

Yeah, I found one I thought was definitely worth a look here, and that's the Chiefs to have fewer than three sacks, so under two and a half sacks. You can get this close close to even money so I like this for a variety of reasons first and foremost Brock Purdy gets rid of the football very quickly and just does not get sacked very often as well he's never been sacked more than four times in his entire career which is something like 27 or 28 starts which is a really impressive stat he's only been sacked three times, four times all year, which is very impressive as well. So, yeah, the Chiefs pass rush has not been very impressive either.

During the regular season, they ranked 21st in pass rush win rate. And, again, Purdy gets rid of the football very quickly. The San Francisco O-line also protects him very well. So, yeah, I just think three sacks is a big, big ask. I think it's very quickly. The San Francisco O-line also protects him very well. So yeah, I just think three sacks is a big, big ask. I think it's very unlikely. So I think this should be, this is mispriced, frankly. So yeah, I like the under two and a half sacks for the Chiefs quite a bit.

Dave, I love plus money. You love plus money. Zach must love plus money as well. McCaffrey and Pacheco over 65 yards rushing each is plus 150 do you like it love it absolutely a great play because you know McCaffrey's number is already high like his rushing prop total is 89 and so Isaiah Pacheco's is right in that same range I think the genesis of both offenses will be their run games. And then whichever run game struggles or whichever team makes more mistakes, that's going to take the running back out of it.

I don't know if that's necessarily going to happen until late into the second half. So I think both running backs have a great shot to go over that number. Propy, any thoughts on Noah Gray over 10.5 receiving yards? Dave talked about staying away from the Kelsey line. Could Noah Gray be a factor? I do think – I've always thought Noah Gray was a very talented player from a physical standpoint. And I do like the way the Chiefs tend to utilize him. I don't mind it. I tend to avoid, again, guys who are not going to be or have a heavy target force, as I like to say, or who aren't

primarily first reads in the offense. Noah Gray is a very talented player, though, so I don't mind it. I'd lean over on it. Not something I'm necessarily going to play, but I'd definitely lean over on it. So when it comes to the Super Bowl, do you think I would avoid a field goal prop? Absolutely not. We'll give that coming up next here after we hear from one of our sponsors. All right. Well, I promised you guys about 30 seconds ago that I would give you a field goal prop, but we're going to start. Juan, I hope I got your name right on chat.

He has a prop. He or she has a prop at plus 550 for both teams to score at least one field goals in each hat. All right. I love plus 550s and all that. It's not a safe bet, but if you want to sprinkle it, that's fine. And why would I say that I'm okay with this? Because one of my picks, we're going crazy here,

the total field goal yardage over 117.5, that's combined yards. You can find this at minus 110 on DK. I'm projecting in my score, which we'll talk about here shortly, five total field goals in this game. Jake Moody has been a little more inconsistent as far as making total field goals in this game Jake Moody and it's been a little more inconsistent as far as making multiple field goals he's made two or more in four of his last 11 games Harrison Butker though has made two or more in six of his last nine he had a bunch I think five or six against the Dolphins in the first game of the playoffs I think we're betting

on listen 340 yard field goals when we hit this I think they're going to be five total field goals in the game. You know, I don't know if I'd play one in each half, but I'm okay with that over one 17-and-a-half number if you like that. Couldn't resist. All right, Dave, you have an interesting one here. As far as the longest touchdown yardage of the game, do you think we're going to see a long bomb or it's going to be short one-yard runs by Pacheco and McCaffrey?

What do you think? Well, if you've been paying attention to everything that I've been saying on the show today, it's that I expect both teams to play a lot of zone coverage to try and take away the big play. So here are some correlations that I learned that makes me want to take the under on longest touchdown yardage of the game under 38 and a half yards at minus 115. Combined, San Francisco and Kansas City have scored 12 offensive touchdowns this year, including the postseason, of 39 or more yards. That's 39 games between the two teams. That's 111 total touchdowns. So right around 10% of the touchdowns are 39 yards or more. Only one of those touchdowns came in the playoffs. It was Christian McCaffrey's 39 yard touchdown run

against Green Bay Kansas City hasn't even scored a long touchdown at least this long since week 12 at Las Vegas interestingly enough I don't think it's the stadium I think it's just the way that that game went combined these teams have allowed only six offensive touchdowns or of 39 or more yards. That's 39 games. That's 74 touchdowns allowed. That number is right around 10%. Two of those did come in the playoffs. It was a Tyreek Hill bomb.

There was a Jamison Williams bomb. Also, you have to think about defensive touchdowns. Those count too. This isn't just an offensive touchdown player prop. So if someone returns an interception or a fumble for a long touchdown, this bet would lose. But the bottom line is this. I have been able to lay out that the percentage of touchdowns that have been 39 or more yards is right around 10% on offense, and you know that those defensive scores are rare. The juice on this should be much higher than 115. So we're taking the under on this game prop.

Longest touchdown yards of the game, it won't be 39 or more yards. You know, I'm glad you did the math on that because I don't know if my math capabilities are that strong to calculate all the touchdowns and how long they are all season. So I'm glad you went and did the math. Let me explain to you the very scientific way I go about math. Yes. Hey, Siri, what's 12 divided by 111? We just figured out Uncle Dave's secrets. I mean, that's what we do on our final prop show of the year. All right, I have one more that I'm going to throw in here. Propy, I texted you about this one yesterday,

so I want to get your thoughts on it. Combined touchdown score jersey numbers, as you can find this on DK, under 121.5. So Pacheco's 10, number 10. Christian McCaffrey's 23. Debo Samuel, 19. Mahomes, 83. You know, somebody like that. Kansas City has given up four total touchdowns to a tight end this year. San Francisco has given up four total touchdowns to tight ends this year. So I'm fading the tight ends. No Kittle, no Kelsey. We're going lower number.

McCaffrey, Pacheco, Debo, Iukes number 11. So at plus 125, I did some math. Well, somewhat. Siri kind of helped. Well, didn't help me. And I'm playing this under, I think it goes under right around 100. Proppy, am I nuts? Or is this worth a

sprinkle? I know as props go. At first glance, CC, I say yes. I think it's creative, and I applaud your creativity, looking or thinking outside the box. So I haven't had a chance to break it down. I'd like to crunch some numbers before I fully endorse it one way or the other. But, yeah, at first glance, I would say more power to you, EC.

And, again, this is supposed to be fun. We're all having fun. There's going to be some fun bets. I will actually be putting out some crossover bets. I'll have an article where I'll be collaborating with the great and powerful R.J. White. We'll both be doing some cross-sport betting here, including the Super Bowl. So stay tuned for that. That'll be out sometime, I believe, this evening or later this afternoon.

But yeah, I think that's a fun bet you see. And I think it looks good at first glance. All right, other bets that I love to make. Anytime touchdown. Now we're going to save the gems for Sunday's show. I think I've gotten two gems this year. Proppy's gotten more. Dave, you'll get in the club probably.

Probably nail this one on Sunday. Let's do anytime touchdown score. I'm actually going to start here because I'm making mine an official play. I'm going Debo Samuel plus 140. I put it on the site. I know it's crazy. It is what it is. Debo Samuel has seven receiving touchdowns this year. He has five rushing. He can get it either way. And at plus 140, I think he's going to have a big game. So you know what? I'm putting my money where my mouth is at plus 140. You're darn right. I expect to see a green check mark next to my name next to this pic on monday's recap show remember that remember that jake all right dave

who you got for anytime super bowl touchdown well let's just go with probably the most important player in this game one of the most big time players in this game a key contributor to the 49ers offense i'm talking about kyle uschak at plus 850 just getting that opportunity in one of those sneaky situations like i talked about earlier inside the five yard line hey look i like these odds on the touchdowns i like the long shot guys but i always want to start with players who i think will be on the field a lot. And obviously in the case of guys, and we're looking at the screen, you see McCaffrey at minus 225. You see Pacheco at minus 130, Kelsey at minus 115. Look, I want to get paid on these,

and I'm not looking to lay out money if a guy doesn't score a touchdown. The one on the screen that I like the most is Rasheed Rice. I've been saying on our fantasy show, really since I've studied him as a prospect, this kid has a nose for the end zone. So plus 130, okay, that's not bad. But Juszczyk, to score a touchdown, plus 850. And just in case I don't get around to saying it later this week, his first touchdown price is plus 3,500.

I like that one too. Whoa. So if he gets a five-yard touchdown, you sweep the board against Propy is basically what we're saying. You hit everything. Especially if it's the first touchdown of the game. All right, Propy, who you got? Anytime touchdown scorer from this list or beyond? David, I haven't

actually determined what the actual bet will be for. Yeah, we have to figure that out, Dave. I would be open to potentially wearing a Kyle Juszczyk jersey if I were to lose said bet. But I love the Debo pick. I like the Rice pick as well. But I'll go with my own guy here who I just think excels in these high leverage spots.

And we're talking about George Kittle. I think at plus 175, he is a very good value per. He seems to really like him, obviously. Happen you not like George Kittle, one of the premier tight ends in the NFL and just one of the premier touchdown scorers as well, especially if we're looking at primetime games or high leverage spots, as I like to say. So, yeah, give me George Kittle, plus 175.

I do also love that Debo pick quite a bit. And somebody asked about Mahomes earlier in the chat at plus 400. Dave, any thoughts? Mahomes touchdown, you like? Absolutely in play, and I think the price is right for that. So maybe one sprinkle, one singular grain. Are they grains? One singular chemically produced sugar bomb of a sprinkle

on Patrick Mahomes' touchdown prop. A single shekel. A single shekel. A single shekel, of course. One thing that I love to absolutely bet is MVP props, and I was so excited to bet these. I actually bet them before the conference championship games. I think you guys could probably guess who my MVP is going to be. Deebo Samuel, plus 2,500.

Do I need to say more? Propy, what do you got? On this list, if we're looking at actual value, plus 2,500. Do I need to say more? Propy, what do you got? On this list, we're looking at actual value. Of course, if I'm gunned in my head or I have to pick the winner, it's going to be one of the two quarterbacks. I'm going to lean Patrick Mahomes. Although I will say it is hard to win three Super Bowl MVP awards, so there might be a little bit of voter exhaustion there.

But, yeah, I just think if we're looking at pure value, I'm going to go with Debo. I just think Debo's skill set, his ability to impact the game as a running back, as a receiver, if he were to score a rushing touchdown, obviously San Francisco would need to win. But if he were to score a rushing touchdown and have a receiving touchdown, and again, I think San Francisco would have a great shot to win if that occurred. And I do think there's maybe greater odds and plus 25 to one than, than it happening. So yeah,

give me Debo. I think it's a great value at 25 to one. All right, Dave, what of this list before we get to the long shots, who do you like on this list? There's only one name that I like four years ago when these teams met in the Superbowl,

Patrick Mahomes got the MVP, but it really should have gone to Damian Williams. He was the Chiefs running back at the time. He had an excellent game. We've talked a lot about what we think the Chiefs are going to do and how they're going to go about scoring points in this game. And it's Isaiah Pacheco who we've talked about. If Pacheco has a good game, I wonder if the voters kind of get away from patrick mahomes

and give him the mvp if the chiefs win and the price that you're i'm seeing 2800 on the screen that's worth more than one singular chemically produced sugar bomb of a sprinkle that might be worth that might be worth like a handful of sprinkles. I have two hands here, two hands, a double sprinkle, if you will, on Pacheco being the MVP, helping the Chiefs win the Super Bowl. It is worth noting. I know we have an incredibly sharp chat and I'm sure this has been brought up. But for the first time, I believe ever, 20 percent of the vote will be from the public for a Super Bowl MVP. Terrible. Oh, that's perfect. So it's always that way.

It's always that way. Is it? I think it's always that way. Yeah. No, this is the first year, you see. Oh, is it really? See, I thought the public had some kind of say in it. And it's like, no, I don't care.

Because the public, if the Chiefs are winning, all the Swifties are going to vote for Travis Kelsey. That's why I think it's worth noting. That's why I think it's worth noting. That's why I think it's worth noting. I was told, at least I understood it to be the first time ever that the public has had that much of a say. He could have a zero for zero, and they would name him MVP. All right, let's go to long shot MVPs. Do you guys have a, is there somebody that may be on defense?

Sam Darnold is on this list. Dave, go ahead. Chris Jones is an impending free agent. He's playing on the franchise tag this year. This is the Chiefs' best pass rusher. He also lines up on the interior, so he's going to stay away from Trent Williams a good amount of the time. That gives him some advantageous matchups,

and combined with Steve Spagnuolo coming up with ways to get to Brock Purdy with his pass rush I think the door is open for Chris Jones to put out a monster of a game and he's plus 7,500 on the site that I'm looking at that that's going to be a teeny weeny sprinkle a sliver of a unit if you will 125 to 1 right there okay well all. So that's even better. I like 125-1 better than 75-1. Again, hey, Siri, what's better, 125-1 or 75-1? Chris Jones is my pick. All right, how about you, Propy?

I'm going to actually piggyback on Dave's pick here, go with a correlated play. Chris Jones, early in the game, he's going to come in, he's going to be the disruptor of the interior that he is. He's going to concuss our guy Brock Purdy. In comes Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold just starts slinging it like crazy.

Three touchdowns leads to a San Francisco victory. Let's go Sam Darnold. What is that? 900 to 1? 91. I can't see. 300 to 1. I can't see. Sam Darnold, 300 to one. I can't see, guys.

I want what you've got. So we'll go Sam Darnold. I'm going to go with Fred Warner at 200 to one. I actually bet this at a bigger number the other week. And so Warner has 132 tackles on there. He's a 49ers leading tackler. Four forced fumbles and four interceptions this season. You know, I think back to the game.

I think it was 2009 when James Harrison, I had him at 100-1 against the Cardinals. He had that long interception return right at the end of the first half. I thought I was sitting on a golden ticket. The Cardinals have to rally. Larry Fitzgerald was in line. And then, you know, Roethlisberger to San Antonio Holmes, if you remember. But I'm feeling we've got to have a defensive player. Now, we almost had one a couple years ago with Aaron Donald,

but they awarded it too early. They made their selections too early, gave it to Cooper Cup, who I also had, so I wasn't complaining. But I love to fade quarterbacks in this scenario. There is some value. Nick Bosa, I had a couple of sacks in the last game. Could take a shot there. I think Chris Jones is definitely in play if Kansas City wins.

I just have a feeling that one of the quarterbacks is not going to be the MVP this time. Just a hunch play. All right, let's bring up the recap screen, see what we gave out today. We had a lot of great conversation, a lot going on as far as our picks. You know, guys, is there anything like, you know, for one of your favorite plays? I think, actually, before we get the recap screen, one question for you. Jarek McKinnon is rumored. Dave, you probably know a little bit more about this.

I didn't see today if he's in or he's out. Do you know any more? I know that Andy Reid was skeptical that he would play in the game. So I'd be surprised if he plays. I've looked at the Chiefs. I've tried to find today, Friday's Chiefs injury report while we've been on the air because Rashi Rice was limited on Thursday. So I'm kind of curious what his status is going into Friday.

I don't see it as of early Friday afternoon when we record. Please go on Google, search for Chiefs injury report. You'll get the updated injury report. That might be something you want to see before you place a bet. If he plays, Propy, what are your thoughts? I believe he'd have a very minimal amount of plays that he'd be in on. I do know they like him in pass protection a bit. I think he'd maybe run some routes,

but I don't think he would have more than one or two carries. And if he did make an impact, it'd be as a receiver out of the backfield. So I don't think he'd be on the field very much. All right. So we're fading McKinnon. But here are our plays. As you can see, Proppy has six. Dave has four. I have five.

A lot on the board. All right, Dave, as we do every week, give me your favorite play among what Proppy and I have five. A lot on the board. All right, Dave, as we do every week, give me your favorite play among what Propy and I have here. Well, I like Props stars Brandon Ayuk under 62.5 receiving yards at minus 180. Well, that doesn't count because you have it too. Yeah, of course I like it. What did I hear from you guys? You know which one? I'm going to go for one from each of you.

The Chiefs team total under 2.5 sacks. I know i just talked up chris jones as a long shot to be the super bowl mvp but i like the rationale that prop drop and roll had on the chiefs not getting to two and a half sacks and purdy's done a pretty good job of avoiding sacks that's an interesting thing that comes with pressuring sometimes just getting the pressure is enough to make a quarterback off target. He doesn't necessarily have to get sacked in order for him to play spooked or to be sped up when he plays the game. And then EC, I love the conviction that you've got in Debo Samuel, but I'm going to take Mahomes over 25 and a half rushing yards at minus 125. I think that one has a great shot at coming in. All right, Propy, your favorite play from Dave's, not including Brandon Ayuk, and your favorite play from mine.

Just with the amount that you're backing, I agree. The conviction on Debo is tremendous. I just had a visual of Debo catching a pass on the first play and getting knocked out for the game and ruining the season. No, Propy, it's funny you say that. So I had a bet. It was like five years ago when the Patriots were playing the Eagles on Brandon Cooks to an MVP.

Got knocked out in the first play of the game right around there by the Eagles. Done. Didn't even make it to the second half. Don't joke about that. I'm sorry, Z. I'm sorry. But, yeah, I do think this is a big spot for Debo. I like his chances to have a big all around football game.

So I do like the combination line there. I also like the anytime touchdown for Debo as well. And then I do think Christian McCaffrey will make a big impact in the short area passing game. I do think that's a friendly number for him as well. And I do think it's a good matchup against this Chiefs defense that likes to keep everything in front of them. And they are vulnerable in the flats in the short area. So, yeah, Christian McCaffrey dave and debo from uec all right now coming up on sunday we have a bunch of programming here on the early edge uh it should be uh you know a lot of

well great stuff look at this we have the early edge in the morning 10 a.m eastern and we have our super bowl preview at 5 p.m. Eastern. You can see these guys. Go ahead, Propy. Dave will be on that Super Bowl preview, if I'm not mistaken. So I love getting the opportunity any time to spend time with Dave, especially beyond this one hour on Friday that we get to do together. So yeah, Dave will be there. I think some tremendous personalities from CBS Sports will also be there. So very much looking forward to that. And that first show, I believe, if I'm not mistaken,

you see is Mike McClure, R.J. White, and Larry Hardstein. Doesn't get much better than those three breaking down the size, totals, props as well. So this is going to be an amazing day of Super Bowl coverage. I am just very honored to be a part of it. And I'm so happy that Dave is along as well. Now, do you think before we end this show that I was not going to talk about exact score predictions? Of course not.

You know why? Because, well, I give them out on Sportsline social channels every week. But also because our guy Propstars, a couple years ago, the Rams played the Bengals. And you were telling us, you've said this multiple times, about how you guys were doing a live stream and you nailed 23-20 at, what, 100-1? 100-1. So I'm going to let you start here. Give me your score prediction and why.

Yeah, this is one of my favorite bets to make, mainly because I did, in fact, cash a 100-1 ticket on the exact score, 23-20, as EC mentioned. So this is something I make sure to take a couple of these every year. And I'm going to go Chiefs 27, 49ers 21. And I believe I found this at 170-to-1. So this obviously pays well. And, again, these are just fun bets.

No edge here whatsoever. But I do kind of try to look at the total to get an idea and then kind of work around that with how I think the game will play out as well. So I do like the Chiefs to win. The total is around that number. So, yeah, I do think that is a potential outcome of 27 Chiefs, 21 San Francisco. All right, Dave. Propy, we know, is very good at these scores. I nailed one the other week,

but you're an expert. You're the Christian McCaffrey of fantasy football expert. A genius level, in my opinion. What do you got? Thank you, EC. I'm never going to question your mental acuity ever again. I'm going to come in a little lower than Prop was

and say 24-17 Kansas City over San Francisco. And the way that I think about it is Pacheco gets a touchdown. Mahomes gets two. There's a field goal in there. EC, I'm sure you'll like that. And then with San Francisco, two touchdowns for them, one to McCaffrey, one from Purdy to somebody else, and a field goal for San Francisco as well. By the way, one edge that I think Kansas City has in the game is their kicking game.

Harrison Butker, grizzled vet, been around a long time. He's had a pretty good year. Jake Moody, not quite as good of a year and a rookie playing in the Super Bowl. Wouldn't be surprised if there's a missed field goal. I don't know if we can bet on that, but chances are you can. I think Moody misses a field goal in the Super Bowl. Wouldn't be surprised if there's a missed field goal. I don't know if we can bet on that, but chances are you can. I think Moody misses a field goal in the game, and I think that that's an edge that San Francisco just does not have, the kicking game in this matchup.

Anyway, 24-17 Kansas City over San Francisco. I need another field goal for at least my field goal props, Dave. That disappoints me. Hey, I'm going 27-23, 49ers. A double not so fast to you guys. Listen, no team has won back-to-back Super Bowls in nearly

two decades. The last time that had happened was the 0-3-0-4 Patriots. Not happening again. The Chiefs are losing this game. Listen, the 49ers were the best team for a long stretch of this season. Let's not forget that. I think they come out and they play well.

You know who my MVP is? Deebo Samuel. Couldn't resist. But I think San Francisco gets the W. Listen, the line has not moved this week, and we've seen a lot of people, like you guys especially, on Kansas City. I'm really curious to see if the line will move over the next couple days. All right, this being our final show of the season, final thoughts. Propy, I'm really curious to see if the line will move over the next couple days. All right. This being our final show of the season, final thoughts.

Propy, I'm going to start with you. Is there anything you want to say about the last 20-some weeks that we've done shows together and anything going forward? It's been an absolute pleasure and an honor to work alongside EC, who's been just a tremendous host. And my colleague, Dave. This is Dave and I's third season together, which is just incredible. So I look forward to this. This is my favorite hour of the week. I love discussing props, so it'll be a long eight months until we're reunited and back together. But I look forward to that hopefully uh dave and ec and i and producer jake who i also

want to thank and give tremendous uh credit to for doing a tremendous amount of work behind the scenes which you guys don't see uh but just keeping all this afloat i hope we get the opportunity to maybe do some stuff together during the summer kind of previewing futures uh ahead of the season but uh yeah i'm just so honored to be a part of this. And I look forward to continuing it, hopefully in the future with you guys. It's been an amazing three years with me and prop, prop, propping on Heaven's Door. And it's exciting to see how the show has grown.

Because when we started, it was just three dudes talking about props. We didn't have the crowd that we have now. We didn't have the chat that we have now we didn't have the chat that we have now so i'm really grateful to everybody that has their alarm set you might subscribe to this show thank you for doing so joining us to the unofficial start of the weekend at 4 p.m eastern every single friday during the football season i appreciate it and while jake has been huge i don't think there's any question that the mvp of this show is me no it's not me it's

ec the show changed a little bit during the year and the one guy that rolled right along with it and absolutely didn't lose a single step is eric cohen and so ec i am grateful to you for the job that you did this year to help our show stay on track and be great. This show went a little bit off the rails, but for the most part of the season, you've done a phenomenal job when you were put in the host chair. I salute you, sir. Excellent job. Thank you for making our player prop show what it's become.

Well, and thank you, Dave. Those words mean more to me than you can imagine and let me just say this you know exactly Proppy you know being able to join you guys at the start of this season was an honor I and it was but it was intimidating I didn't know what to expect I mean you got the the foremost prop experts or props expert you have the foremost fantasy football and props expert and then there's this guy who just goes on and likes to say whatever is on his mind and uses historical trends, which drives proppy crazy. Like Derek Henry,

when I would talk about what he did against the Texans three years ago and the steam would come out of your ears. I just couldn't help myself, but guys, I can't even tell you what a true honor it's been. And thank you, you know, to the audience out there. As Dave said, it has been, we've had some bumps in the road throughout the way, but I'll tell you, the last eight, nine weeks has been phenomenal. I have had so much fun.

I echo what you said, Propy. Every Friday at four o'clock Eastern has been something that I really look forward to. You guys challenge me, you challenge each other, you challenge the audience, but you also win. And I also want to thank Jake behind the scenes. He's done a great job. This show is not as easy as it looks to put together. And Jake has done a phenomenal job.

And I will certainly miss being on with you guys every Friday. But thank you to all. Thank you to you guys for everything throughout the year. You've been great teammates and great friends. You know, Dave sending me emails throughout the year when I was going through a real down streak. Propy, all of your guidance throughout the year. I am most grateful. So thanks to all of you. And Jake, you know, for giving me pep talks here and there as well.

I can't thank you guys enough. So this is it. This is our final prop show of the year. It's been a lot of fun, but I really hope we can come back in the off season and do more so for uncle dave that is dave richard for proppy i am eric cohen thank you for listening as i always like to say let's hit it big