Fantasy Football Today - Early Sleepers! (02/25 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: February 25, 2021

We've got sleepers for you at each position including some young RBs and WRs, but some old QBs. Let's start with Fantasy Football Fun Facts (1:50) on Kirk Cousins, Tarik Cohen and Jakobi Meyers and mo...ve on to the favorite early sleepers (7:10) for Dave, Jamey and Heath. Which 49ers RB is the one to prioritize? Is A.J. Dillon a sleeper or a breakout? Plus some news and notes from around the NFL (17:40) ... You don't have to be young to be a great QB! Our guys make the cases for Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford as sleepers (18:50). At RB (35:00), who will be the lead ball carrier for the Patriots, Steelers and Seahawks? ... Sleeper WRs (45:30) include Robby Anderson, Parris Campbell and some Year 2 guys, while our TE discussion (53:00) includes Adam Trautman, Blake Jarwin and O.J. Howard. Who is the top guy in that group? ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Subscribe to the FFT in 5 podcast on Apple, Spotify, Google, or wherever you listen to FFT. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @CTowersCBS, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Want winning picks each morning in under 10 minutes? Subscribe to 'The Early Edge: A Daily SportsLine Betting Podcast' on Apple, Spotify, Stitcher or wherever else you listen to podcasts. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone and celebrate every highlight reel play. And as an official sportsbook partner of the NFL, BetMGM is the best place to fuel your football fandom on every game day. With a variety of exciting features, BetMGM offers you plenty of seamless ways to jump straight onto the gridiron and to embrace peak sports action. Ready for another season of gridiron glory? What are you waiting for?
Starting point is 00:00:38 Get off the bench, into the huddle, and head for the end zone all season long. Visit BetMGM.com for terms and conditions. Must be 19 years of age or older. Ontario only. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem? For free assistance, call the Connex Ontario helpline at 1-866-531-2600.
Starting point is 00:00:59 BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.
Starting point is 00:01:16 Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. An early look at sleepers for the 2021 season. What's going on? Welcome to the Fantasy Football Today podcast. Today, an old veteran quarterback that the guys like. One for Dave, one for Jamie, one for Heath.
Starting point is 00:01:36 The oldest would be for Dave. Tom Brady is his sleeper. Who's going to be the starting running back for the Patriots, for the Steelers, for the Seahawks? We've got some young wide receivers that are coming into their own, hopefully going to take a big step in 2021. All right. I'm going to give you some fantasy football fun facts
Starting point is 00:01:52 on Alliteration Thursday here. I'll be the one to decide if these are fun or not. How's the temperature? Temperature's great. First of all, it's like 50 degrees, so that's outside. And the heat's back on, so I don't even have the heat on right now. It's great. But I could, it's like 50 degrees so that's outside. The heat's back on so I don't even have the heat on right now.
Starting point is 00:02:08 It's great, but I could if I wanted to with the hot water. Best shower ever. Five straight days without a shower. Oh my God. That's just a regular week for you, right? Yeah, more like three is like a regular week. This was rough. It was terrific. There are some folks in
Starting point is 00:02:24 Texas who might be able to relate. Yeah. I know two myself. I feel bad joking about it. Right. How are your parents doing? They're hanging in there. I believe that they're going to get warm water back soon.
Starting point is 00:02:34 How long has it been for them? Over a week without warm water, and they went almost a week without water and electricity. And they had a sewage buildup in their front yard. But other than that, things were great. Geez. Awful. All right. Well, hopefully everything getting better and better by the day there. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:02:50 All right. So let's get the fun-o-meter out. How fun are these facts, Dave? Kirk Cousins has finished as a top 12 quarterback in five of the last six seasons. That's a good stat. I wouldn't say it's fun. There's not a lot of fun things to say about Kirk cousins.
Starting point is 00:03:05 Cause he's not really a fun guy. Jamie's got him as a sleeper and early sleeper. Sure. No, I understand the sleeper appeal. That doesn't mean that the fact is fun. Jamie, I said a rival your son fact.
Starting point is 00:03:16 Sure. In relation to Kirk cousins, there were only two quarterbacks last year who played 16 full games. Didn't leave because of injury, and didn't finish as a top 12 quarterback. Who? You're supposed to guess that. That's the first one.
Starting point is 00:03:32 Okay. Two quarterbacks who didn't finish top 12 and played a full season. I think I know him. Go, Dave. Wait a minute. 16 games they played, and they didn't finish up. We're not counting guys that left early in games because of injuries. Very Acer-y right there.
Starting point is 00:03:50 Cross off Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr because they didn't play. They missed large chunks of games. I would say Baker Mayfield. That's correct. Oh, he actually did leave a game hurt. Didn't he? Against Pittsburgh. Matt Ryan never got hurt.
Starting point is 00:04:04 So there's only one. Isn Pittsburgh? Matt Ryan never got hurt. There's only one. Isn't that right? Ryan, Phillip Rivers. Oh, wait a bit. Okay. You're right. Phillip Rivers never left the game because he was hurt, but he was replaced in games at times.
Starting point is 00:04:15 So basically every quarterback that played 16 full games last year finishes the top 12. All right. Cousins was 12th per game though. So I'm going to give him. Oh yeah. Jamie, do you want to talk about Kirk Cousins real quick? Since he's one of your sleepers.
Starting point is 00:04:27 I did see a cool stat on the Pro Football Network that he they called him the emperor of garbage time. And this was their definition was trailing by 16 points or more in the second half.
Starting point is 00:04:42 And what was the stat they used? Fun stat. He's the emperor of garbage time. 65 garbage time attempts. When the fun stops. And he had seven touchdowns when trailing by six points. 16 points or more. Cousins also threw 38 times per game in his last eight games.
Starting point is 00:05:03 More on him in a bit. Fun fact, fantasy football fun fact number two. In his career, Tariq Cohen averages 3.32 catches per game in wins, 5.04 catches per game in losses. He had only six catches in three games. Chicago went 3-0. So, keep that in mind. It's a good thing he's been running back in the Mitchell Trubisky era.
Starting point is 00:05:28 I like that you said error there yeah but they win more than you'd think right but I don't know that's somewhat fun right that's somewhat fun that's more fun than the Kirk Cousins stat alright here's an unofficial Azor stat that I'm pretty sure is correct
Starting point is 00:05:44 not fun the last 11 games of the season that was that. Here's an unofficial Acer stat that I'm pretty sure is correct. Not fun. The last 11 games of the season, that was when Jacoby Myers started actually playing because Julian Edelman got hurt. Jacoby Myers had 35.65%. By the way, I'm talking about Tariq Cohen and Jacoby Myers and Kirk Cousins because they're on the early sleepers list.
Starting point is 00:06:02 When Myers started playing, he had 35.65% of the team's receiving yards. That is a crazy high number. They were the worst passing team, one of the worst passing teams in the league. If they had thrown for 4,000 yards and he had had that pace, just put it in perspective, just 4,000 yards, he would have had over 1,400 yards. So 35%, a little bit more than that of the team's receiving yards, Jacoby Myers,
Starting point is 00:06:25 but he didn't play when Julian Edelman played. So Dave, that's one of your sleepers that the slot guy basically for the Patriots. It could develop into two different slot guys because Edelman, what if the Patriots move on from him? They say he's making too much money, or he says, I want to go play with Tom and win a ring like he did with Gronk. Then I don't know if his voice is that high, but that could happen too, where Edelman's on a different team trying to win now. Myers takes that role in New England. I've been a fan of Myers since he signed with New England. I liked his film in college, and I think he's
Starting point is 00:06:59 shown some pretty damn good flashes at times. Love his soap. I saw this tweet from Mike Clay of ESPN. There's 122 receivers that have 80 plus targets over the last three seasons. Myers is one. Alex Erickson is the other of the Bengals. Those are the only two guys to have at least 80 targets to not catch a touchdown. No touchdown catches. New England,
Starting point is 00:07:28 did you guys know how many New England threw touchdown passes? Touchdown passes or receivers that caught touchdowns? Touchdown passes thrown by Patriots quarterbacks. It's not six or eight. It's higher than that. Twelve. Tied with the Giants for the fewest in football.
Starting point is 00:07:43 Last fantasy football fun fact. Not sure if you guys knew this one. Mitochondria is the powerhouse of the cell. Did you know that? Now I do. Did you see that? You know what I'm talking about? Did you what?
Starting point is 00:07:58 Yeah. Yeah. So weird. Okay. Have you seen this? Have you heard about this? JJ Watt tweeted, Mitochondria is the powerhouse of the cell. Have you seen this? Have you heard about this? JJ Watt tweeted, mitochondria is the powerhouse of the cell.
Starting point is 00:08:06 Have you taken middle school science? Everyone went crazy and tried to come up with theories about what that meant, and it was very funny. All right. So, Jamie, why don't you start? Who's your favorite early sleeper for 2021?
Starting point is 00:08:19 Of the guys I gave you? Eh, whatever. Levisca Chenault. I think it's going to be fun to see what they end up doing in Jacksonville with their receiving core and what ends up happening to enhance it if they do. If they don't, then I think Chenault's in a great
Starting point is 00:08:35 spot. 600 yards on 79 targets in 14 games, added 91 rushing yards as well, and finished pretty strong in his last four games. He had three touchdowns. Heath, who's your favorite 2021 early sleeper?
Starting point is 00:08:51 I think I'll say Raheem Mostert. It seems like Jeff Wilson is more popular than Mostert, and I'm not sure that that should totally be the case. He has, obviously, he's one of the best running backs ever. He's averaged 5.6 yards per carry for his career.
Starting point is 00:09:09 He's Jamal Charles, yeah. And for as long as he's healthy, he's going to be a good running back for fantasy. He has been pretty much always. So hopefully he's healthy for 10 or 12 games next year. I think we're still going to see Mostert get drafted ahead of Wilson. Dave, you like Wilson better, right? I do.
Starting point is 00:09:31 I think he can handle the ground and pound of a season better than Mostert can. I think that's been proven. He's also younger than Mostert. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if they split work, and those were the 1A and 1B running backs in San Francisco. But I'll take the guy who's been better in short yardage and goal line situations. That's Wilson.
Starting point is 00:09:51 They were splitting work. Mostert's last four games. And of course, he got hurt. In those four games, Mostert had 53 carries. Wilson had 46 carries. And the only part of that I would debate, because the younger part I think matters a lot. Jeff Wilson's career high in carries is 126. He's not proven at all that he could handle a full season's worth of runs.
Starting point is 00:10:12 Oh, and you know the 49ers have to have proven running backs. Well, no, I'm just saying you said he's proven that he can hold up to the wear and tear of a full season. Fair point, fair point. Right, okay, fine. So in the limited playing time that both of these running backs have one has broken down far more often than the other i actually don't think the age matters because it's not like mostard has a lot of mileage you know
Starting point is 00:10:36 no but you i i think as we are telling you the coaches know that they can't just throw him out there and expect him to hold up for game after game after game. I'm sure in the back of their minds, they're worried about keeping him healthy. Look, Mostert's talented. Don't take that away from him. I'm not saying he's a dud, but I'm concerned that the coaching staff will limit his work in an effort to keep him available throughout the majority of the season. Well, I mean, both these guys are going to have limited workloads.
Starting point is 00:11:07 It's not like either one is going in and getting featured opportunities. It's just, that's not the MO of this team. And they're probably going to add a third guy. That's going to make this a frustrating backfield as well. So, and, and Jeff Wilson did go on IR last year,
Starting point is 00:11:18 right? Yeah, he got hurt. Yep. It's crazy. I don't think, I don't think Wilson is, is free of the injury tag consideration as well.
Starting point is 00:11:27 By comparison to Mostert, I'd say that he's the better candidate. Mostert and the sample size that we have. And again, it's just, you know, you got to go with the San Francisco sample size. Obviously, he bounced around the league. So if you want to take that into consideration, that's fine. But, you know, for what he did for San Francisco two years ago, he proved to be durable for what they used him for.
Starting point is 00:11:45 Yeah, down the stretch two years ago, he proved to be durable for what they used him for. Yeah. Down the stretch two years ago, he was obviously great. He was a top 10 running back in the last five games of the season. And then, you know, did pretty well in the post season and they're going to need touchdowns. And the 49ers,
Starting point is 00:11:55 the last two seasons have had 19 rushing touchdowns and 17 rushing touchdowns just from their running backs. So they're going to need that. Cause not getting a lot of care. I'm not going to carries. And I don't think, or sorry, they're not getting a lot of carries. And I don't think, or sorry, they're not getting a lot of catches. And I don't think we're going
Starting point is 00:12:07 to get like a 250 carry running back from the 49ers. All right. Up to Dave. Dave, who's your favorite early sleeper? My favorite early sleeper is going to end up becoming like a very popular trendy breakout. And it's AJ Dillon with the packers who it looks like aaron jones is on his way out it sounds like the dolphins are interested the jets are interested one or both of those teams really might pay him a lot of money to be their lead back and that would just open the door for dylan to be at least in a timeshare and that's if they keep jamal williams and or draft another running back i would imagine imagine that Dylan would get the first crack at being the main guy if A.J. Dylan, or I'm sorry, if Aaron Jones leaves Green Bay.
Starting point is 00:12:51 And he's going to be popular. He's going to be a very popular pick. We just did a dynasty draft, really like where Jacob Gibbs took A.J. Dylan in the dynasty draft, accidentally told the entire league how much I liked the pick as a matter of fact. And I think he's got potential to be just that bullying physical back that we've been talking about really for the past year when it comes to Dylan. Yeah. I wrote about Dylan and Williams earlier this week in the running back projections article. And I think Dylan probably ends up assuming that Aaron Jones leaves and let's say like, they're not, I don't, I don't believe it's going to be just at AJ Dylan would be Jamal Williams or someone sharing with him doing the passing downs work. I would
Starting point is 00:13:28 expect that we're going to see Dillon in like round four. Yeah, he's a breakout candidate already. I'm writing sleepers, breakouts, and busts for next week and he's one of the breakout candidates for sure. But I think Jamal Williams, again, is another situation where I think Jamal Williams may be a very good
Starting point is 00:13:44 sleeper because they've thrown the ball a ton to their running backs over the past two years. Jones and Williams kind of split those receptions. I think Dylan will do wonders in the running game, but Williams' reception total could really go up if he's sharing with Dylan who doesn't have the pass-catching chops of Aaron Jones.
Starting point is 00:14:00 The smartest thing the Packers could do is to keep Jamal Williams because he's going to be cheap. They love him. He's such a great locker room guy for them. And you have Dylan under his rookie deal. It just makes so much sense. Let Aaron Jones walk because he does deserve a big contract. I mean, he's been among the best running backs the last three seasons, so he deserves to get paid. And as Dave noted, I think you're going to see several teams going after him. So if I'm the Packers, I keep Jamal Williams. I make him sort of the insurance in case AJ Dillon can't handle the full load because Williams has proven he can.
Starting point is 00:14:30 Maybe not the same level as Aaron Jones, but it makes so much sense to just keep Jamal Williams and Dillon and make that your backup. So let me name one that's a legit sleeper, not one that's a pretend sleeper because the guys are right. And I said it as much. I like Adam Troutman in New Orleans. I like the talent. I know that he didn't play a whole lot as a rookie. And I know he went to a small school. He went to Dayton, but he's a big dude. He's smart. He's a good moving tight end should replace Jared cook pretty seamlessly in that offense. And if Jameis Winston's the quarterback, as we've been talking about for the last six years with Jameis, he has a tendency to
Starting point is 00:15:04 lean on his tight ends. The offense in New Orleans has consistently leaned on its tight ends. I think Trotman could be a very, very interesting fantasy sleeper. Okay. I'm trying to look up this stat that I had updated. So now I think it's four years in a row, just going back to the AJ Dillon, Jamal Williams thing, four years in a row that a running back has been second on the team in targets when Matt LaFleur has been the head coach or the offensive coordinator. Both years with the Packers.
Starting point is 00:15:35 Well, I know you can find that. It's in that ringer store. Yeah, four years in a row. Todd Gurley, Deion Lewis, Aaron Jones, Aaron Jones. None of them had a ton of targets. Well, Todd Gurley had 87 targets. That's a lot. 50 catches.
Starting point is 00:15:51 Yeah, so keep that in mind. Running backs always involved in the passing game when Matt LaFleur has been the coordinator or the head coach. And the running backs have scored. They scored 16 total touchdowns in 2020. Of course, that was when Aaron Rodgers went berserk, so it was lower than what it was in 2019, which was 25 touchdowns. I bet they end up somewhere in between and probably closer to 25
Starting point is 00:16:09 than 16 in 2021. Okay. Last question here. Let's go back to Dylan one more time. So we talked about when we did the sophomore running back show, seven running backs went in the top 36 picks in a draft we did in early January. I think, Heath, you said Dylan fourth round, so that would be just behind that. Would he jump ahead of any of those big seven? If Jones signed somewhere else. Heath? I don't think so.
Starting point is 00:16:38 In PPR, I really don't think there's much chance. In non-PPR, I think that there is a chance. I actually, in my projections, non-PPR, have him projected for more non-PPR fantasy points than Clyde. Clyde's my seventh. Okay. So, Dave, Jamie, would you put A.J. Dillon in a non-PPR league ahead of any of the other
Starting point is 00:17:05 top seven running backs? Who are the seven, I'm sorry? Sophomore running backs. Oh, yeah. You said Edward Solaire, Heath? Yeah. Yeah, I would take Dillon ahead of Edward Solaire in non-PPR.
Starting point is 00:17:16 And what about like Antonio Gibson or Swift? No. Okay. Dobbins, no. But I think he's... I mean, there's a scenario where Jacksonville signs someone and then you're taking him ahead of Robinson, too. Yes. think he's very close to Dobbins. There's a scenario where Jacksonville signs someone,
Starting point is 00:17:25 and then you're taking them ahead of Robinson, too. Yes. Fair point. All right. So those are some of our favorite early sleepers. Jamie said Chenault. Heath said Mostert. Dave said Troutman. We all talked about A.J. Dillon. Maybe he'll be on our early breakout show next week.
Starting point is 00:17:41 It's really important, though, that you know about Paramount+. This is going to be absolutely awesome. You've probably seen the Journey to Mount Paramount spots featuring Bill Cowher, James Corden, Patrick Stewart, Beavis and Butthead, quite a squad. But Paramount+, is live sports, breaking news, and a mountain of entertainment. You can go straight from game day to movie night with Paramount+. You can stream iconic movies like The Godfather, Indiana Jones, Mission Impossible, new episodes of critically acclaimed original series
Starting point is 00:18:10 like Star Trek, Picard, The Good Fight, and The Stand. And you can also dive into live sports from CBS Sports, including the NFL, March Madness, the Masters, Champions League. All this stuff, plus CBS, Nickelodeon, MTV, BET, Smithsonian Channel, and Comedy Central and Live Sports. All of this in Paramount+. It's all that. It's breaking news. It's a mountain of entertainment. Paramount+, it starts streaming on March 4th. Excuse me, starts streaming on March 4th. All right, get into that. News and notes.
Starting point is 00:18:45 A lot of quarterback stuff. Looks like Ben Roethlisberger will be back with Pittsburgh. John Lynch, GM for San Francisco, said he thinks Jimmy Garoppolo will be the team's starting quarterback in 2021. Cam Newton said he'd be open to signing a one-year deal with New England. And he also said that missing time with COVID was too much to recover from. He was behind in the offense. Basically didn't have an off season. Then in the middle of the year misses time with COVID and it just really set
Starting point is 00:19:12 him back and running back news. There's mutual interest between the dolphins and Aaron Jones, according to the Miami Herald. So if Aaron Jones goes to the dolphins, would you rather have Aaron Jones or to the Dolphins, would you rather have Aaron Jones or James Robinson, assuming he's the guy starting for the Jaguars? Aaron Jones.
Starting point is 00:19:33 I think I would say Jones, too. Yeah, I might have Jones at like six or seven if he goes to the Dolphins. It would be pretty good, huh? I mean, he's been awesome as it is, and he'd probably share less than he has. Yeah. All right.
Starting point is 00:19:48 Well, we'll take that. Go to the Dolphins. All right. More sleepers? Yeah, let's do it. Okay, so each of you gave me a quarterback. Dave, you gave me Tom Brady. Jamie, Kirk Cousins.
Starting point is 00:20:00 Heath, Matthew Stafford. First, I'll ask you, how are you all ranking them? Brady, Cousins, Stafford. Dave, I'll ask you, how are you all ranking them? Brady, Cousins, Stafford. Dave, why don't you go first? I will have Brady ahead of Cousins and Stafford. I have Brady 13th among quarterbacks, then Stafford at 15, Cousins at 17.
Starting point is 00:20:17 They are all, at the very least, late-round, easy bench-stash guys in case you draft a Hertz, a Herbert, a Burrow, and they don't go the way that you're hoping that they go in the first few weeks of the season. Okay, Jamie, how are you ranking them? Brady, Cousins, Stafford? Stafford, Brady, Cousins, all three outside of my top 12.
Starting point is 00:20:44 Brady, I think, is the most interesting one because I think he's going to get drafted as a starter based on name, based on the Super Bowl, all those things. So he's actually going to be a bust for me based on what I think his ADP will be. If he's being drafted where we haven't ranked, I think it's great. Then I think he is a sleeper.
Starting point is 00:20:59 But I think he's going to end up being drafted as a starter. So that's just kind of where I come out on Brady. But I think the other two are going to end up more along the lines of sleeper options with Stafford kind of a swing. I think if people get all excited that he's going to the Rams and what that could be, then his ADP may get pushed up a little bit as well. I know I'm just talking to some people. When the trade happened, they were like, oh, Stafford's going to get a –
Starting point is 00:21:22 he's got top five potential. He might. I don I, I don't, I don't want to see people draft him that way. So that's another one that could be a potential bus by the time we get to August. But I think we kind of set the tone for what people think about Kirk cousins and how people will approach him on draft day. Jamie, what do you think the ADP for Brady is going to be? We got to let Heath rank these guys.
Starting point is 00:21:44 We don't really, I have them all within the same five ranking spots that Dave and Jamie do. I think I have Brady 11th. I have Stafford 15th. I have Cousins 17th. And I think maybe the most interesting thing to come out of this short segment is that what Jamie said, and it's a reminder for what people listening, with sleepers and breakouts and busts in February, we're not just projecting,
Starting point is 00:22:13 ranking what the players are going to do. We're trying to project, rank what the drafters are going to do and where these guys are going to be ranked. So, green assault.
Starting point is 00:22:23 Gotcha. Okay, Dave, you may now ask your question. What do you think? And Heath can answer this too. What, what do you think Brady's ADP will be? Whenever I talk about quarterback ADP, it's kind of like where they're picked in terms of the selection of quarterbacks. Sure. The draft spot for quarterbacks. And I think where Heath hasn't ranked is kind of where he's going to get drafted. Okay. Which was what? 11th. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:22:47 I think he's going to go somewhere between eight and 12. And where do you have him ranked? 15. Okay. I mean, whenever it comes to quarterbacks, we really split hairs on these things because you know, it's a, we go six points for passing touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:23:00 Obviously that's going to change some things the way people look at it. You know, when it comes to Brady versus the four point for passing touchdown guys, you know, we don't know what the saints quarterback situation is going to look like. That's going to change some things the way people look at it you know when it comes to Brady versus the four point for passing touchdown guys you know we don't know what the Saints quarterback situation will look like that's going to change some things at least for me with Taysom Hill who I have ranked ahead of Brady right now you know so there'll be some things that change but I think if Brady gets
Starting point is 00:23:15 drafted as a as a starter I would prefer to have him as a backup as opposed to number one guy are we assuming for the sake of this discussion that Chris Godwin is back with the Bucs and Antonio Brown is not? Does it matter? I'm kind of secretly hoping they both are.
Starting point is 00:23:32 Specifically Godwin. It matters, obviously, for Godwin. Does it matter for Antonio Brown? You look at the splits. First eight games for Brady. Last eight games for Brady. That was with and without Brown. 20 touchdowns in both sets. both eight game stretches. Top six quarterback per game
Starting point is 00:23:48 both with and without Brown. But he threw for about 250 more yards with Antonio Brown than without Antonio Brown. That's not a huge deal. I don't know. The last seven games after Brown's first game, which was against New Orleans, which
Starting point is 00:24:04 was a terrible game for them. The last seven games, that's when first game, which was against New Orleans, which was a terrible game for them, the last seven games, that's when he really went nuts. He was on pace for 5,100 yards, 46 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. He was the number three quarterback per game behind Aaron Rodgers, or behind Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers. He had 200 fantasy points in those seven games. Yeah, he was terrific. And he had 205 in his first eight.
Starting point is 00:24:27 So basically the first game he played with Antonio Brown was a dud. The last seven were just an amazing stretch of football. I don't know if that was because of Antonio Brown or what, but I don't know. Jamie, what does that mean to you? Well, I mean, it's a lot. When he has guys that he's comfortable with and playing well. I mean, we know what Brady typically has been,
Starting point is 00:24:48 and this really didn't change by the end of the season. You know, he's focused on the playoffs with the Patriots. It's usually more working on their run game and getting their defense ready with Tampa Bay was getting their pass game going. So he went into playoff mode for what his team is and what his offense is. There's a lot to, you know, keep an eye on with the Bucs.
Starting point is 00:25:09 Godwin sounds like he's going to get the franchise tag, but he wants to get paid. And so how happy will he be if he's not paid? Will he show up? Yeah, I would be surprised if Antonio Brown's not back just because it sounds like he wants to be there. And the Bucs, I think, want to have as many of their key components back to make a, another run at it.
Starting point is 00:25:28 But, um, having all those guys around him, Gronk as well is going to matter. So Dave, you're the one who had Brady on your sleeper list here. Um, you think he will be drafted.
Starting point is 00:25:39 What do you think his ADP will be in terms of with the quarterback position? And you just think he's going to outperform it basically? I think he's got a chance to outperform it. I'm expecting him to be a round 10 plus pick. And maybe there are going to be some people out there that see Brady's name in his track record and they go, I got to have the goat. He's got seven rings and they take him in round eight or round nine. I'm thinking late round, good value.
Starting point is 00:26:03 But we can say the exact same thing for a lot of other quarterbacks. And maybe that's the point is that when we're talking about late round value quarterback that you're not going to find there's people talking about, Oh, you can just wait until you can get Jalen hurts in round 10. He's not going to be there in round 10. He's going to be popular. The young guys are going to be popular quarterback picks. It's going to be the old guys that nobody wants. And I think that there's good value in Stafford and Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins. And we could probably name two or three others, but I think Brady is the best of that group that you're going to be able to find with a late pick and potentially put right in your starting lineup week one. Okay. Although
Starting point is 00:26:40 maybe week two, cause they might play the Saints in week one. Who's the second best immobile quarterback after Aaron Rodgers? I've got Brady. Yeah. I mean, we're assuming we're counting Tannehill and Burrow and Russell Burrow mobile quarterback. Herbert, yeah.
Starting point is 00:27:04 They move. They move. Those guys can move. You're considering Herbert and Burrow mobile quarterback? Yeah. Herbert, yeah. They move. They move. Those guys can move. They're not like Lamar Jackson. 250 rushing yards. Herbert was basically right around that. Burrow, I'm not sure what he's going to end up as. Well, who would you rather have, Burrow or Brady?
Starting point is 00:27:17 Burrow. Burrow or Stafford? Burrow. Let's talk about Matthew Stafford. Heath, this was one of your sleepers, right? Yeah, and I think we've seen over the last couple of years short spurts, and even in 2019, a half a season, that Stafford still has elite ability left in him.
Starting point is 00:27:39 He's going, obviously, to a completely new system, but it's a system that at times has made Jared Goff look like an above-average quarterback, and I's a system that at times has made Jared Goff look like an above-average quarterback, and I'm not sure that's actually true. So I think there's a chance that Sean McVay elevates Stafford's play. He's got good weapons there with the Rams,
Starting point is 00:27:54 and we see not necessarily a career year, but certainly a bounce back from last year. Okay, yeah. Last year, he was the No. 15 quarterback. He played most of the season without Kenny Galladay. In the four games he played with Kenny Galladay, four healthy Galladay games, he had a 100.9 passer rating,
Starting point is 00:28:13 which would have been the second best of his career. Did you know that Matthew Stafford has one season in his career with a passer rating above 100? And it was 2019 when he played eight games. Maybe I'm missing something here, but is he really... above 100, and it was 2019 when he played eight games. Maybe I'm missing something here, but is he really? And you said elite or near elite. This guy has never won a playoff game.
Starting point is 00:28:32 Like I said, one season with a passer rating over 100. I know he's a good player, but is he really going to win you a fantasy league? Well, when I said elite, I meant from fantasy perspective and in half a season in 2019 he was a top five fantasy quarterback yeah he was on pace for just under 5000 yards that season he's one of the only quarterbacks of the 5000 yard season so
Starting point is 00:28:56 i mean it's not like he's a schlub no no definitely not um and there's there's hope that sean mcveigh is more beneficial to him than any of the to use jamie's word schlubs he's dealt with in detroit okay well i mean you know daryl bella was good for him that's true and you know that's uh that's should give you some hope for trevor lawrence uh but i think you know from the standpoint of the coaching perspective is mcveigh gonna let him throw downfield? You know, I mean, that's not something that Jared Goff did. Is it more Jared Goff or is it more, you know, what offensive line and what should be a competent run game. And so, you know, this is the chance for him to, you know, from what Adam's, I guess, talking about,
Starting point is 00:29:53 more of a broad Matthew Stafford conversation. Myself and Pete Prisco and our former colleague Nick Costas, we've been giving Will Brinson a very hard time because Will had a little baby rant about Matthew Stafford where he tweeted out that he's a Hall of Famer and it comes up every now and then that Stafford is not a Hall of Famer
Starting point is 00:30:13 but Will's argument is give him three years in Los Angeles to pass his stats and maybe get a ring and then he will be a Hall of Famer so we'll see what Stafford does with the rant yeah it'll be interesting. Like the comparison there is obviously Philip Rivers, right? Well, that's what started it.
Starting point is 00:30:30 He's like, Rivers is going to Hall of Fame. And if you haven't noticed, Matthew Stafford's going to Hall of Fame too, I think was kind of his gist of his rant. I mean, everybody here thinks Rivers is a better quarterback than Stafford, right? Just looking at their careers. I think, you know, the guys that you look at,
Starting point is 00:30:47 they're obviously going to be debatable. Uh, Eli rivers, Stafford, Ryan, you know, those guys, uh,
Starting point is 00:30:53 obviously to have retired. Eli's got the hall of fame, the, the super bowls on his resume. So that puts him in a different category. Rivers is, you know, I,
Starting point is 00:31:01 I think rivers is all famer. I don't think his first ballot hall of famer. I don't think Eli is either. Um, and then you have, you know, Ryan and Staff is a Hall of Famer. I don't think he's first ballot Hall of Famer. I don't think Eli is either. And then you have, you know, Ryan and Stafford, how they'll finish. You know, the difference is the eras. I mean, they played in eras where passing stats are going to look dramatically different than guys 10, 15 years ago. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:31:18 The thing is with Stafford, we don't know how the last seven years of his career are going to go. But you look at Stafford and Rivers compared through age 32, and I don't know how the last seven years of his career are going to go, but you look at Stafford and Rivers compared through age 32, and I don't think it's particularly close. Stafford blows his doors off. Oh, Stafford blows Rivers' doors off? Completely. Really?
Starting point is 00:31:35 Statistically, you mean? Yes. Yeah. That doesn't surprise me. He has 13,000 more yards than Phillip Rivers had through the same age that Matthew Stafford is. 13,000. Did they start at the same age? No.
Starting point is 00:31:53 Not at all. No. Stafford's always been much younger than people thought that he was. And even now, I think he may have turned 33. I think people think Stafford's like 37, 38 years old. Right. Yeah. I mean, if he's going to play as long as Phillip Rivers did
Starting point is 00:32:06 Then he's going to absolutely He might make it harder for Phillip Rivers to get into the Hall of Fame Because by the time Rivers is trying to get inducted Everybody's like, well Matthew Stafford has a lot better numbers than him But that's so weird because But the wins are different The numbers are one thing But I mean I just feel like Phillip Rivers was always one of the best quarterbacks in football
Starting point is 00:32:23 And I don't really think Stafford was. The wins, yeah, I guess that will have an impact. Well, and that's what Stafford's going to LA for. He's not there to try and pad his stats like he was doing in Detroit. He wants to win a ring. The Rams want to win a ring. He also has a defense that he's playing with that's going to be pretty darn good. So I'm not sure how much garbage time stats he'll put up. So I'm kind of nervous about Stafford coming through as a monster fantasy quarterback. He will have some monster weeks. Rams will get into some high-scoring games. They're in the same division as the Cardinals and the Seahawks.
Starting point is 00:32:56 It's going to happen. But I also think that there will be games where Cam Akers takes over, the defense takes over, and Stafford, you'll be lucky if you get 200 yards and one touchdown from him. Okay, so am I crazy here? Matthew Stafford in his career has averaged 7.2 yards per attempt. Phillip Rivers, up through age 32,
Starting point is 00:33:16 is that what you said, Heath? Yes. Oh, he'd be better off per attempt. Yeah, 7.9 yards per attempt. So that's what it is. Rivers had 4,100 attempts, 4,108. Stafford had 6,224. So that's why the comparison's a little bit tough to make because he threw so many.
Starting point is 00:33:35 But Rivers on such better teams, though. Yeah, yeah. Look, I could see, maybe Stafford's just been on a bad franchise, bad teams, and that's the, I think he's good, I do. I just don't know that he's transcendent going to elevate this franchise. I don't know if Philip Rivers was never transcendent.
Starting point is 00:33:52 I think he was. I think he was. I think he was that great. I think he was a true Hall of Famer. Like a true stud quarterback. One of the best in football. In his prime. I did. Heath doesn't agree. He's very, very good. I wouldn't use the word transcend football in his prime. I did. Anybody, he doesn't agree. I'd love to know.
Starting point is 00:34:06 He's very, very good. I wouldn't use the word transcendent with Phillip Rivers. I do think that he was one of the best quarterbacks of his era. I do think that he's deserving of the Hall of Fame. Again, I don't think he's a first ballot guy, but he's in that next tier of quarterbacks. He's not in the Hall of Very Good. He's better than that, but you're not going to walk
Starting point is 00:34:24 through the Hall of Fame and go, where's Phillip Rivers. But he's not, you're not going to walk through the Hall of Fame and go, where's Phillip Rivers bust? Unless you're either an NC State fan, a Chargers fan, or maybe a Colts fan. Or if you see Eli Manning
Starting point is 00:34:32 and you're like, wait, where's Phillip Rivers? Well, Eli's different. Eli's only a Hall of Famer because of the playoffs, the two seasons. Well, I mean, Eli compiled stats too.
Starting point is 00:34:40 It's not like he didn't put up numbers, but his wins and losses are different. He's got two winning seasons, right? He's got two Super Bowl runs. Is that a two winning seasons his entire career? That's amazing.
Starting point is 00:34:51 He's a 500 quarterback as a starter. I think exactly 500 or maybe one game over. Two Super Bowl runs where he won Super Bowl MVP and he was great for those eight games, but he actually I think Eli Manning was a great quarterback for a very short time. The beginning of his career
Starting point is 00:35:07 was really bad and the end of his career was really bad. That's just why he wouldn't be a Hall of Famer without the Super Bowls. All right, fun conversation. A little off track.
Starting point is 00:35:14 We'll take a break here when we come back. We'll look at running backs. Some of the young running backs that could emerge as sleepers right after this on Fantasy Football Today. Whether in the game or in life,
Starting point is 00:35:26 the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations,
Starting point is 00:35:46 or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada, insurance designed for life. Did you know that across Ontario, utility damage happens 19 times a day? That's over 4,222 incidents a year. Don't let your next dig be one that causes costly delays or safety risks. Before you break ground, make it a point to request a locate. It's not just the law. It's a step to keep
Starting point is 00:36:12 your team and community safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca and avoid unnecessary damages to get the job done right. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. Some of the running backs that our guys have as sleepers, Dave has Damian Harris, Rashad Penny,
Starting point is 00:36:30 Jamie has Benny Snell, Tariq Cohen, Heath. I only put Raheem Mostert from the list you gave me. Did you have another running back on there? That's my fault. I probably did. All right, I'll look it up. You've got Jamal Williams and DJ Dallas. Oh, DJ Dallas.
Starting point is 00:36:43 Interesting. Okay, so I'll pick two from each of you. And let's go to Heath first. So DJ Dallas and Jamal Williams. You already talked about Jamal Williams. Why is DJ Dallas a sleeper for you? For the same reason that Rashad Penny is a sleeper for other people. I think yesterday in our Dynasty draft,
Starting point is 00:37:02 you drafted Rashad Penny, and the next pick I drafted DJ Dallas. There is a possible opportunity in Seattle and there is definitely an opportunity to be the second back. If whoever they bring in suffers an injury, it's a team that I think is probably done with the let Russ cook idea. And they're going to get back to establishing the run with the vigor and about let russ go yeah hopefully not no um transcendent player dallas wasn't particularly good last year in
Starting point is 00:37:34 terms of efficiency as a rusher he he got pretty decent catching the ball but he was also a rookie and he had a very small sample size um i've seen Rashad Penny not be able, like talk about a guy that's not been able to get through a training camp often without getting injured, that I would rather take the bet on Dallas than I would Penny. And I've got Penny as a sleeper just in case he does manage his way to get through training camp because we've seen the talent. It's been so few and far between in the pros, but in college, he was a monster. If he can just hang in there
Starting point is 00:38:08 and stay healthy, at least he went into this offseason fairly healthy, I believe. He's got a chance. If Carson leaves, I think he's got the first bite at the apple on training camp. I saw something about Penny. I don't know. It may just be that he literally never was in the open field last year,
Starting point is 00:38:23 but his max speed last year, as measured by the NFL, was like 12 miles an hour. And in past years, it made 22. That's bad. Do you think you can run 12 miles per hour, Dave? No, I don't think I can do anything.
Starting point is 00:38:40 Yeah, I think you could. 12 miles an hour? I could run 12 miles per hour. Dude, I am big, old, fat, and slow. I am run. 12 miles an hour? I could run 12 miles per hour. Dude, I am big, old, fat, and slow. I am not running 12 miles an hour. You're not old. I'm older than everybody on this podcast. But is it bad that that was the only one that I said you weren't of the four things?
Starting point is 00:38:58 No, no. Everything else is factual. Just ask my doctor. Okay. Jamie, Tariq Cohen. I gave an amazing, very fun stat about his catches and wins versus losses. But anyway, 70 catches two years in a row
Starting point is 00:39:13 before getting hurt in week three. Going to get 70 again in 2021? I mean, the opportunity is there. You know, when you look at what this offense is going to most likely be, we got to figure out the quarterback. We got to see what happens with Allen Robinson. But, you know, again, they're getting back a guy that could play
Starting point is 00:39:30 in the backfield with David Montgomery. That could certainly be the pass catching back ahead of David Montgomery like he has been prior to the injuries. So there's an opportunity for him, if he's healthy, to come back and still be a featured part of this passing game. Coaching staff is still the same. So, you know, anytime you get a guy coming off an injury, there's a discount, you know, so he's going to fall on draft by comparison to where he was, where he was going.
Starting point is 00:39:54 You know, 2018 was amazing for him. 2019 was okay. 2020, who knows how things would have finished out, but you saw what David Montgomery did in the passing game. You know, how much of a factor does Montgomery remain in the passing game ahead of Tariq Cohen? I'll take him at a discounted price, obviously better in PPR than non-PPR. I'm going to ask you guys a couple of questions
Starting point is 00:40:12 on the running backs we've talked about so far. First of all, Heath, would you actually draft DJ Dallas ahead of Rashad Penny? Yeah. You would? Okay. Yeah. Dave, you would not, obviously penny jamie they're these are both late round guys but yeah i'll take penny first jamie penny if we're drafting right now
Starting point is 00:40:30 i'm taking penny because i mean the the investment in him is still higher than the investment in dj dallas and you know when rashad penny was healthy he was building toward remember he was going to take the job from chris carson two years ago before he got hurt. So they still have some value in him, I think, if he's right. But if what he said is correct, then he can't run anymore. Then obviously DJ Dallas is going to get the first crack at it. But I can't imagine that they're going into the start of the season with these two guys atop their depth chart. And Tariq Cohen, let's say he's back and ready to go, fully healthy.
Starting point is 00:41:04 Tariq Cohen or JD McKissick? Who would you draft first? That's a great question. I'd probably go with McKissick right now. McKissick. All right. Who's – They're the same guy.
Starting point is 00:41:16 Dave, you're excited about – Well, I don't know if you're excited about it. I'm on your sleepers list. Damian Harris in New England. Especially in half and non PPR leagues, because I think that he, I thought he was pretty good for the majority of his time. Ultimately he averaged five yards per carry. There were some games where he was way below that,
Starting point is 00:41:34 but I think that he can be the rushing down sky for the Patriots. And you're going to get to a point in your fantasy draft this summer where the running backs that let that are left on the board are sucky. He will be the best of the sucky. Do we think that, Oh, Rex Burke has a free agent, right?
Starting point is 00:41:54 So can we just get rid of him? Is it enough already? James White's also a free agent. Yeah. There's a lot to like about Damien Harris. I mean, he's like a borderline breakout for me too. You know,
Starting point is 00:42:03 I just think you look at the, if they fit their quarterback situation, this offense is going to get better to whatever degree we'll see. You know, it's not going to be a top tier offense because they have so many holes to fill. But this is one of the bright spots for them last year. You know, and when he was healthy and running well, as you know, you saw what the upside could be if he can be a little bit more involved in the passing game. And like he said, if James White is gone and not significantly replaced, there's a lot to like about what damien harris can be in 2021 he can be a good receiver like we just really didn't see that much but i think he caught like five passes in 12 games however many games he played but in college he was a decent receiver i'm trying to remember there weren't a lot of games where he and Sony Michelle were active together, right?
Starting point is 00:42:45 Right. Dude, I gotcha. I gotcha. Weeks 13 and 14 are really what you want to look at. Harris had 27 carries. Michelle had 17 carries. So that's really the only sample that we have. Does it bother you that Sony Michelle actually finished really strong after Harris? The last three games of the year, Michelle, 10 carries for 74 yards,
Starting point is 00:43:09 10 carries for 69 yards, 16 carries for 76 yards. And somehow he had three catches for 60 yards and a touchdown in week 17 against the jets. He's still there. And he actually averaged 5.7 yards per carry in 2020 in I know, weird. So that's two efficient seasons out of three for Sonny Michel. Do you look at him as a serious roadblock for Damian Harris? Could be. Like San Francisco without the upside. I think I look at him as a serious competition.
Starting point is 00:43:40 Hopefully one of those guys wins it. You know, Bill Belichick, usually whoever comes out week one as the lead running back, you can count on that guy to hold on to the job and be a feature back and never come off the field, especially in the goal line area.
Starting point is 00:43:54 I really think that this is a misconception, just like it was with Doug Peterson. In one of these years, you will be proven correct. Oh, like Stephen Ridley and LeGarrette Blount and Sonny Michel in his rookie year. These one of these years, you will be proven correct. Oh, like Stephen Ridley and LeGarrette Blount and Sonny Michel in his rookie year.
Starting point is 00:44:07 These guys were big time, big workload guys. It's happened. When they have a guy that doesn't fumble, they lean on a guy. But it's not a three down guy. No, no, it's not a three down guy.
Starting point is 00:44:16 When they've got a guy, they lean on him. It's not a three down guy. It's not a passing downs guy. But they will ride a running back to a lot of carries. If they like,
Starting point is 00:44:26 that's also, as we saw last year, the passing downs guy is more of a Brady thing. Yeah, I think so. That could be fair. The goal line thing last year was like, I think Sony,
Starting point is 00:44:34 Michelle and Damian Harris combined for what? Like three touchdowns. Well, that's because they had arguably the best goal line quarterback ever. 12. Yeah. We need cam out of there to help their run game for fantasy. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:44:46 Cam Newton had a ton, except he helped her. He's the reason they average five yards of carry. Well, not what, what do you mean? Oh, because of his running Harris and Michelle.
Starting point is 00:44:54 Yeah. 12 rushing touchdowns for Cam Newton last year, 12 rushing touchdowns for Cam Newton and the Patriots quarterbacks through 12 touchdowns. All right, Jamie, you want to give me a quick thought on Benny Snell. Here's my question.
Starting point is 00:45:04 What do you think the odds are that Benny Snell is the starting running back for the Steelers? 40%. I think it's like the Seattle situation. I just think Benny Snell is in a better spot because at least you've seen him do something competent and helpful for your fantasy team or potentially helpful for your fantasy team. Obviously, he didn't help you week one when James Conner went down, but you know, you see what the upside could be if he gets the job, because as we talked about on a fancy football today in five, three games with 16 plus carries two of those,
Starting point is 00:45:33 he had very solid fantasy performances. So I think Pittsburgh, you know, now that they're going back with Roethlisberger, you know, Juju says he wants to come back. We'll see if they're able to make that work, but they're going to run out of money quickisberger, you know, Juju says he wants to come back. We'll see if they're able to make that work, but they're going to run out of money quick.
Starting point is 00:45:46 And, you know, unless they draft another running back again, or they just decide to make it work with what they have and maybe bring in a cheap veteran. I think Benny Snell's in a good spot, you know, depending on where you get him based on his price tag. So let's say in this world that will definitely not happen, but neither Seattle nor Pittsburgh brings in another running back. And Rashad Penny has been declared the starter. And Benny Snell has been declared the starter.
Starting point is 00:46:08 Who are you guys drafting first? Snell. Give me the names again. Penny and Snell. And Penny. Yeah, it's Snell. No, I didn't hear you say Penny. That's okay.
Starting point is 00:46:20 You're reading the Ringer article. Oh, enough with the Ringer article. I'm sorry that you were wrong about something. I was a hundred percent, right? I don't even know. You're right about that. Jesus.
Starting point is 00:46:30 Um, I was actually just looking at something like Russell Wilson's camp has approached the Seahawks for a potential trade. Let's go. Ooh. Per Mike Duggar of the, of the athletic and Mike Sando of the Athletic and Jason Jinks of the Athletic.
Starting point is 00:46:48 My goodness. What an offseason this could be. Wow. Okay. Well, that was fun. I don't actually believe it can happen, but... Wide receivers. Let's see. So Jamie's got a bunch of year two guys. Rager, Chenault, Mims.
Starting point is 00:47:06 Dave's got Paris Campbell plus Edelman slash Jacoby Myers. Heath has Robbie Anderson and Michael Pittman. Robbie Anderson is mega interesting. First five games of the year, he was 12th in non-PPR. He was fifth in PPR. He had 90 or more yards in four of those five games.
Starting point is 00:47:28 He was sixth in PPR. Then you look at the last 11 games for Anderson. He was on pace for 131 targets, but only had 883. Only on pace for 883 yards. He just wasn't very good. In those games, Curtis Samuel,
Starting point is 00:47:43 Robbie Anderson, and DJ Moore were all on pace for 118 to 131 targets. Pretty much the same target share for those guys. Actually more missed the game and Samuel missed the game as well. Anderson played all 11, but the other two were so much better than Robbie Anderson. So interesting season for him. Heath, his routes were different.
Starting point is 00:48:00 His ADOT was way down, but you've got him as a sleeper. What do you think Anderson's, you know, draft value will be? And what do you expect? I based this one based on the fact that I was a lot higher in the rankings than Dave and Jamie. He is a guy that is very difficult for me to guess what his ADP is going to be. If I going to, I, if I had to guess, I'd say somewhere between 28 and 32 at wide receiver, a middling number three. And that's where he gets drafted.
Starting point is 00:48:32 It's where he gets drafted. Yeah. Yeah. I'd take the under on that. You think he gets drafted later than that? Yeah. And he might, he,
Starting point is 00:48:40 he most years I think has been ended up on sleeper lists. So, and that last year was really the first year since his breakout with the Jets that he delivered. Curtis Samuel, I don't imagine is going to be back. I still think for a player that has scored touchdowns at the rate that he has last year was bad luck in terms of how many touchdowns he scored. And last year is really the only reason when you look at his full season numbers that he wasn't just awesome. I mean,
Starting point is 00:49:08 he had 95 catches for almost 1100 yards, but he scored three touchdowns. So he's finished his wide receiver 20. I think it's a great call. I do think he's going to be a great value based on how this, this off season looks for the Panthers. Cause I think you're right. I don't think Curtis Samuel does come back,
Starting point is 00:49:24 but I mean, look, obviously things change dramatically if they swing the trade for Deshaun Watson as they're one of the teams that are going to be aggressive going after him. Also, they could be in the rookie quarterback conversation as well. So that could maybe help Robbie Anderson if they get an upgrade over Teddy Bridgewater or hurt Anderson if the rookie that they draft is not ready,
Starting point is 00:49:44 but they throw him in because they want to see what they have. So, you know, Anderson should still be one of the top targets there. It, uh, continues to support the theory of draft players that leave Adam Gase, um, because you saw what happened to him after he left Gase. Uh, but yeah, he's in, he's in a great spot. You know, he's, he's one of those guys, like you're going to say, I don't want Robbie anderson but by the end of the season you say i'm i'm glad i kind of drafted robbie anderson you know and and i don't think you have to reach for him i think again i think you'll get him you know probably closer wide receiver 40 than closer to the number 30 and i'd be on board with that especially in the ppr league and non-ppr i might not even be on board with that because
Starting point is 00:50:21 he's just he was so catch dependent 44 of his ppr fantasy points came on catches last year it's high well that's because i mean six more points per game on receptions that's that's because he had a two percent touchdown rate yeah and if christian mccaffrey is back and he plays more than three games how much higher is that percent but mccaffrey passing game for those guys, though. I mean, you know, you're not worried about Mike Davis. You got to worry about Christian McCaffrey. You worry about Christian McCaffrey.
Starting point is 00:50:50 Then things change in the back end of the defense. He had a five and a half percent touchdown rate playing four years with the Jets. So I don't, it may not be that. Maybe it'll be lower than that. He did a few targets with the Jets, too. It's going to come up. He did a few targets, yes.
Starting point is 00:51:04 They've what? I think they've thrown 33 touchdowns in their last two seasons, Carolina. I mean, maybe. I think what happened two seasons ago doesn't really matter. They threw 16 this past year, and I think they threw 17 two seasons ago
Starting point is 00:51:18 when, yeah, they had a bunch of injuries. But that's what... I mean, I think DJ Moore's a sleeper, too, guys. I'm loving DJ Moore. Well, he's not, he's going to be drafted in the fourth. He's a breakout, whatever it is. He might be a breakout. There are guys, there are guys.
Starting point is 00:51:34 He's a great player. Yeah, there are guys that have great value that don't fit either the sleeper or breakout category. It's just, they threw so few touchdowns. 17 touchdown passes for the Panthers. Even bad quarterback plays to get you to 20. The question is, and I said this before last year, that based on two years, I wasn't going to say
Starting point is 00:51:56 that DJ Moore was just a low touchdown guy. But we've got 46 games and 335 targets of an abysmal touchdown rate. How much, like, at some point, we're just going to have to accept that he's not going to score that many touchdowns. Maybe that's not yet. I'm not sure it is. I mean, Michael Thomas doesn't score a lot of touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:52:16 Julio Jones doesn't score a lot of touchdowns. But Michael Thomas will score nine every year. DJ Moore would take what those guys are scoring. Absolutely. Andre Johnson is always capped at like around eight or nine. Right. This guy's capped at like four. Eight or nine would are scoring. Absolutely. Andre Johnson is always capped at like around eight or nine. Right. This guy's capped at like four. Eight or nine would be great.
Starting point is 00:52:28 Yeah. He has 11 targets inside the 10 in three seasons. 11. Get DJ Moore. Get him involved more. Get DJ Moore involved more
Starting point is 00:52:36 in the Reds over. Crying out loud. I'll send an email to the Panthers right now. Okay. The other wide receivers, the young guys, Paris Campbell,
Starting point is 00:52:47 Chanel, Rager, Mims, Pittman. Who's the best of that group? Pittman. Yeah. Pittman's like a borderline breakout.
Starting point is 00:52:55 I think, you know, again, you just look at what the opportunity is. If he's the number one there for the, for the Colts, it's, it's hard to overlook what his upside could be.
Starting point is 00:53:02 What do you think? David dot Tepper at Panthers.com? Okay. Why don't you CC Matt.Rule? Okay. Done. Let me just want to see passing touchdowns last year. Yeah, they were 28th.
Starting point is 00:53:22 All but six teams through 20 or more touchdowns. Okay, so Pittman is kind of in that breakout category, especially they don't bring back T.Y. Hilton. When you look at Rager, Chennault, Mims, and Campbell, who would your top pick be in that group? Rager, Chennault, Mims, Campbell. Well, I'd throw one of Dave's other guys in there I think is the best one also is Mooney.
Starting point is 00:53:45 Darnell Mooney, Okay. So I'll go with those five. Campbell, Mooney, Chenault, Mims, Rager. Who's your favorite? Mooney. I think I have Chenault the highest, but it's Chenault and Mooney are right up there. And again, Mooney, we got to see what happens
Starting point is 00:54:01 with what the Bears do. I've got Chenault the highest of those guys. Paris Campbell. Pitman's not in this group. You don't have Pitman in this group? No, he said he's ahead. He's ahead. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:54:10 Pitman's ahead. Then Chenault's right behind him. Paris Campbell led his team in targets and receiving yards in week one. That was it. That was all he played. It's 100% of his games. Yeah, you want to talk about injury prone, man. This guy needs to be healthy.
Starting point is 00:54:29 He's had buzzards luck since he's come into the league. It's been terrible. Never heard of that buzzards luck. Interesting. Tight ends. Aren't buzzards completely reliant on luck to eat? I don't know.
Starting point is 00:54:44 Yeah, but what are they eating? Mitochondria is the powerhouse of the cell, by the way. OJ Howard is Heath's tight end sleeper. Jamie has Blake Jarwin. Jamie, how convinced are you that Jarwin is ahead of Schultz on the depth chart? His contract would suggest he's probably ahead of Schultz. I'll take my chances that Jarwin, if he's healthy, resumes his role as a starter.
Starting point is 00:55:11 Dave said Adam Troutman, too. If we look at those three, Troutman, Jarwin, Howard, who are you guys picking first? Jarwin, if he's healthy. Howard. Even if Gronk is back? I think OJ Howard was considerably better than Gronk when they played together last year, so yeah.
Starting point is 00:55:34 They're all within four spots of each other. I'm fishing for Troutman. That's good. I like that. All right. let's look at early sleepers here got an Apple podcast question I'd like to read and it is from
Starting point is 00:55:51 RJ Gilbert startup rookie draft I am starting up a dynasty league for the first time and I was curious what you think is the best way
Starting point is 00:55:58 to do the rookie draft linear snake if snake for the first draft should it then go to linear each year going forward?
Starting point is 00:56:05 Love the pod and keep talking about sandwiches. So you're doing the rookie draft outside of your startup draft, I guess. Do you recommend that? It depends on how soon you want to do the startup draft. If you're doing the startup draft before the NFL draft, then yes, I would recommend that. I don't want to draft rookies before I know who they're playing for,
Starting point is 00:56:29 personally. Same. We did a draft yesterday. Yes. Without rookies. Right. In that scenario, I would do it snake in the opposite order that your startup draft was.
Starting point is 00:56:45 And then after that? Linear. Linear. Year two and beyond. Okay. That's how I would. I would also encourage you to think about doing a salary cap draft. Those are very fun and good keeper prices. It's good for dynasty
Starting point is 00:57:02 and whatnot. Well, I guess it doesn't really matter. It's just keeping most players. Dynasty, keeper, seasonal It's good for dynasty and whatnot. Well, I guess, you know, it doesn't really matter because it's keeping most players, but dynasty, keeper, seasonal, redraft, whatever. Salary cap leagues
Starting point is 00:57:11 are the best. Give it a shot. Keep talking about sandwiches. I had a very boring sandwich yesterday. Chicken, barbecue sauce, cheese.
Starting point is 00:57:18 That's my sandwich. Hot or cold? Hot. Yeah. That sounds good. It was homemade. You know, it stunk. Like, if I had gone to a place that good it was homemade you know it stunk like if i had gone to a place that did it well you know the chicken roll chicken was breaded yeah that's a sandwich with potential what kind of this was a frozen breaded like frozen breaded chicken that i
Starting point is 00:57:39 cooked on the stove for about 15 minutes uh It's pretty good. Reheated. It was already cooked. No, no. Uncooked. Uncooked, yeah. You don't find a lot of breaded uncooked frozen, but this is what I have. And then, yeah, slice of mild cheddar cheese
Starting point is 00:57:55 and some barbecue sauce. It was fine. It was fine. I might get a sandwich today. I might get chicken cutlet, eggplant, and roasted red pepper sandwich from a store. That's really good.
Starting point is 00:58:10 You're going to leave your house? I don't know. I'm feeling adventurous today. Yeah. Feeling adventurous. Oh, it's in the 50s. So, yeah, you got it. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:58:20 All right. Well, thanks. Good show, guys. Adam, do you want to be CC'd on this email? Yeah. Heath, Jamie? Actually, yes. Yes. Well, thanks. Good show, guys. Adam, do you want to be CC'd on this email? Heath, Jamie? Actually, yes. Yes, please CC me.
Starting point is 00:58:33 And I think that those really might be their email addresses. So give it a shot. Okay. Should we put your email address out there, too? No. We're guessing on theirs. Have a great weekend, everybody. I weekend everybody not happy what do you say according to the athletic russell wilson stormed out of a meeting with coaches after his ideas for fixing the offense were dismissed uh prior to their thursday night game against arizona
Starting point is 00:58:56 get him out why do you want him out oh we're now where do we want him uh the jets we want him? The Jets. We want him with the Jets? We want everybody on the Jets. Wouldn't the easiest thing just be a Deshaun Watson Russell Wilson trade? Yeah, but then that ruins Watson. That sucks all the way around. I'm sure Deshaun Watson would love that.
Starting point is 00:59:20 He might love that, but are they going to let Deshaun cook? Well, I mean, Deshaun is like probably what a young Russell Wilson was. Well, he'll run more. Goodbye, everybody. Have a great weekend. Make sure you listen to our free agency preview on Fantasy Football Today in 5 as Dave will give you five minutes of tight end free agency.
Starting point is 00:59:39 Oh, no, wide receiver. Wide receiver. Wide receiver free agency. Yeah, the tight end one won't be that good, but that's a week away. You'll forget about that one being bad in a week. So check that out. Check out Paramount Plus. And have a wonderful weekend.
Starting point is 00:59:51 We will talk to you on Monday with early breakouts. Sincerely or warm regards. How should I wrap up the email? Sincerely. Got it.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.