Fantasy Football Today - Eight Crazy Stats! Our Favorite Stats for 2023 (07/06 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 6, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  We're joined by Billy Muzio of PlayerProfiler.com as he and Dave give us eight crazy stats for 2023! Our first two stats (2:55) are about the Bears offense and expectations for Justin Fields and D.J. Moore. Maybe you shouldn't be too optimistic? We've also got the latest on Dalvin Cook (15:00) ... Tyler Lockett has been better than D.K. Metcalf for two straight seasons (17:25), so why are we drafting Metcalf so much earlier? And let's get a Brock Purdy stat (21:30) and talk about the 49ers offense plus what you need to know about Lamar Jackson in the red zone (29:10) ... A statistical reason to draft Ja'Marr Chase as WR1 (33:24), a disagreement about T.J. Hockenson (39:40) and a team that is looking to beat a 2023 opponent for the first time since at least 1973 (44:40). We've also got some bonus crazy stats (46:00) to end the show ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. We've got some awesome stats for you today on fantasy football today some fun stuff to talk about it's our crazy eight our eight favorite stats for 2023 and four of them will be from dave richard and four of them will be from a special guest billy museo joining us today billy welcome to fantasy football today thanks for the invite boys excited to talk some football it's bright and early on the west coast but we are ready to rock and roll and talk some football. Yeah, that's my bad. I didn't know Billy lived on the West Coast and that we were recording this at 9.37 a.m. Eastern Time, a.k.a. 6.37 a.m. Pacific Coast time. Sorry, Billy. Coffee's on me got my coffee we're good to go okay okay thank you

very much billy billy is the director of operations at player profiler.com he in 2021 was the most accurate draft ranker according to fantasy pros and in 2022 the number four in season ranker so brings a lot of expertise brings brings some great statistics, brings some delicious coffee. Question for you. Now that we know you're on the West Coast, how did you handle the Alvin Kamara, I'm not going to play in the London game or wherever it was, fiasco? Because we were basically trying to help all the people on the West Coast who probably had no idea that he was not playing. So I'm a firm believer in waking up and checking those kind of things.

And so on game day, I set multiple lineups to check news like that at different times. And so when I know we have a London or an overseas game, I set my alarm and wake up when we get the inactive list. And so I was up. I changed my rankings. I changed my lineups, made all the moves, went back to bed. Okay. All right.

Well, that didn't really help the lenient commissioner. I can't believe you brought it up. Most people forgot about that. Yeah. It was such a controversy. Bringing back bad memories. Yeah. Billy, tell us about playerprofiler.com and what you do. Yeah. So I'm the director of operations. We are in the midst of kind of redeveloping all of our player pages. We just got done with our draft kit, which is 300 players deep, and it has write-ups for every single player, videos for all the players, and, of course, all of the analysis for all the team insights.

So it's a behemoth for us to complete every single year. It's always nice to be done, get it out to the public, and now I'm finishing the cheat sheets this week for various formats, and those will be downloadable on that on that draft kit this week great and please follow him on twitter at FFMuzio I want to get one

you know one fun crazy wacky stat whatever you want to call it Dave something crazier than cooking a burger in the oven which apparently is pretty crazy got some weird feedback from that one give me one stat you want to talk about. I'm going to give you stats throughout the show that'll make you think twice about some players that you might be interested or excited about drafting this year. And this one is probably the least exciting of the bunch.

It's about DJ Moore and how he's never been a top 12 wide receiver in PPR points per game. He's been outside the top 24 in PPR points per game each of the past three years. He had just 10 red zone targets last year. He's never had more than 13 red zone targets in a single season. When I wanted to ask him about that, when I went to Bears minicamp last month, I was told DJ's not interested in talking. Sorry. That was a little frustrating.

I don't know if he knew that I was going to ask about his red zone work or what have you, but he does have a chance to be more of a red zone option in Chicago. But as I told Luke Getze when I talked to him, I said, if I know that he's going to be the number one target, then that means that the defense is going to know that he's going to be the number one target. What are you going to do to combat that and he gave a really great answer and remember justin field schemed really

really well in the red zone last year i expect that to continue this year but it makes all this makes me not want to love dj more i know he's gonna get a lot of targets i think he's gonna get over a thousand yards i think he'll get over 80 catches i know that he's not going to be dominant in the end zone, and that makes me worry about him being any higher than wide receiver 20. Okay, so your basic stat is he just has never had a consistent red zone presence. Let's not forget that. I mean, he's never been a top 12 receiver in PPR either. No.

He's had three seasons with around 1,100 yards. He's had two seasons where he's averaged about 78 yards per game, which is really amazing. Hasn't been the same since then. But he's a curious guy, and is he going to be the next Stefan Diggs, basically, who goes to a new offense or whatever it is? Billy, what's your take on DJ Moore? Yeah, I agree with Dave here.

This was more of a lateral move to me. People all of a sudden moved them up their rankings, and I just didn't see it he actually moved down in my rankings with this move it just because the move to me just did not do enough for his fantasy relevance and as dave mentioned never been a top you know 11 receiver the last three years in points per game he was wide receiver 28 wide receiver 23 wide receiver 33 and then now goes to a Justin Fields-led offense that is going to be one of the lowest passing volume attempt offenses in the league. It's a rush-first team. We saw Justin Fields last year, again, struggle inside the passing game, relied heavily on his legs.

I don't like the chances of D.J. Moore returning value at where he's going in drafts right now, and I have to say I agree with Dave on this in that D. this and that DJ Moore for me is more like wide receiver 29 and 30. I've never been a big yard of the catch guy either, which I think is what he's going to have to do to get there this season. Let me throw this since we're on stats. Let me throw this one at you guys. So the Eagles, if you want to compare the Bears this year to the Eagles last year, the Eagles went in 2021 from 32nd in pass attempts, by a wide margin, by the way.

They threw fewer than 500 pass attempts in 17 games. 12th in scoring and 32nd in pass attempts in Jalen Hurts' first year as a starter. And last year, they were 2nd in, and they were 23rd in pass attempts. So, you know, we're always looking for the next blank in fantasy, and people are hoping that Justin Fields to DJ Moore is the next

Allen to Diggs is the next Hurts, Kyler to Hopkins, you know, I don't know if he'll be a top five receiver or anything, but the next Hurts to A.J. Brown kind of thing. And that the offense will change, Dave. So what do you think? I don't think the offense is going to change dramatically.

Fields noted that this is the first time since he's been in the NFL and the first time I think since college that he's been in the same offense for consecutive years. And I think that that's something that he's liked. And yes, they are going to be a run-heavy team. You ask any coach about their run game in Chicago and they say that that's the backbone of what they do, but it's not.

It's going to be Justin Fields as the backbone of what they do. I think their off-season moves, and this is all in the article that you'll read about in the Fantasy Football Preview magazine on newsstands in a couple of weeks that the bears think that better protection for fields will lead to more throwing and less scrambling and having dj more as a more reliable target than what they had last year mooney claypool etc that'll help move the chains and keep him passing so it wouldn't be a surprise to me if they went from dead last and passing to 23rd.

That's what you said. Philadelphia. Yeah. They might even get a little bit higher than that. So I would expect Justin Fields to throw a decent amount more and run a little bit less because he won't have to run for his life as much. I do think that offensive line will ultimately round into form and be pretty good for him.

All right, Billy, you've got four of the statistics we're going to talk about today. Give me one that you want to highlight right now. Well, let's just keep the Justin Fields trend going because the Bears have actually never had a 4,000-yard passer. This is unbelievable. And this is an entire franchise of the Bears. And I don't think that this stat is going to change just because we have DJ Moore over here on Chicago now. And so when we take a look at the stats, Justin Fields was quarterback 27 in pass attempts in 2022 with 318. He was 26th in passing yards with 2,242. He was quarterback 23 in air yards with 2,835. You mentioned how Jalen Hurts went from bottom of the league to 23rd or whatever it was, but he still had 432 attempts. So more than 100 more attempts in 2021, 460 attempts last year. And so I think in order for them to even be near this number, they're going

to have to see upwards of 440, 450 attempts from just fields himself. Uh, and, and I don't think that we're going to see that out of, out of the Russian quarterback. Right now, what does that mean for fantasy? And, uh, you know, can he be a top five quarterback, which is how Justin Fields is being drafted with fewer than 4,000 passing yards. I mean, certainly Jalen Hurts was, you know, I think it was QB3 last year, and he missed two games. But he actually, I'm sorry, he did throw for over 4,000. No, he didn't. He was on pace for that. He threw for 3,691 yards in 15 games and did finish as QB3.

In 2020, Kyler Murray finished as QB six with 3,971 passing yards in 16 games. So yeah, I mean, is that really more of a Justin Fields that, or is that more of like a DJ more stat because obviously fields can get the fantasy production, uh, in other ways. So everything, the bears have signaled this offense have signaled. They want him to run less and you know, the bringing in of DJ Moore the addition of Rose John Johnson them bringing in Dante Foreman this they brought two bruising backs that tells me they want them to run on short yardage they want them to roll on goal lines which if they're going to take away the most I should say they're going to take away

the biggest attribute of Justin Fields and his biggest strength in his legs. And they're going to rely on his arm, which he has yet to show that he has inside the NFL level. I mean, he was one of the most accurate quarterback in college, but it has not translated to the NFL yet. And I don't know if it was Matt Nagy or if it was just Justin Fields and his transition into the NFL. That being said, we have yet to see it in his accuracy inside the NFL. And if they take away his rushing ability or upside, I should say, his fantasy points are going to be limited. And so when you have, he had 1,100 rushing yards last year, only 2,200 passing yards.

If we cut that production by, let's just even call it 20%, he's going to need to throw for upwards of 3,400, 3,500 yards. And we just haven't seen anything remotely close to that from Justin Fields. And you'll learn about his accuracy and where he's at when you read the story that I wrote from Bears minicamp. So Billy, are you out on fields? Where do you have him ranked? I have him as quarterback seven. I'm out at ADP. I think, and I hate to say this, but he's definitely more of a best ball quarterback than he is redraft for me just because of his inefficiencies with his arm. And I think

that if I'm going to pay up for quarterback, I'd rather do it for somebody in the same range as like, you know, Justin Herbert, who for me is going to throw for close to 5,000 yards. And they have the addition of Kellen Moore and the offense that I really like this year. I'd rather look elsewhere at quarterback. I'm going to pay up for that price, and if I was going to go a rushing quarterback, I'm just going to pay up and take Jalen Hurts. Do you have Lamar ahead of Justin Fields? I do have Lamar ahead of Justin Fields.

What's the rationale behind that? The rationale behind it is I think that we have a better, overall just a better supporting cast from the running backs, from the tight end, you know, from his his weapons, as long as Bateman is healthy. Munkin, I like the Munkin offense a little bit more coming in. We're going to see a rush first attack that's going to balance it, balance out for his his passing zone scheme. And so I also just have seen Lamar Jackson do it more. Right. I've seen him be a little bit more accurate. I've seen him win the MVP.

I've know that he can run for 1100 yards, 1200 yards, more than one time. He was on track last year as the quarterback one again, beginning of the season before he got hurt. And so for me to be able to see it, repeat it and do it again, it just weighs a little differently for me. Where Justin Fields for me, where Justin Fields for me is coming in off one great rushing season, you know, struggled as a passer mightily, and if I can see him get that passing piece, he doesn't need to quite hit 35 or even close to 4,000 yards,

but as long as he gets over 3,000 yards, which is what it's going to take, that's what took for Lamar's one season over 3,000, and that was his MVP season. As Fields can get over 3,000 yards, which is what it's going to take. That's what it took for Lamar. Lamar is one season over 3,000, and that was his MVP season. If Fields can get over 3,000 yards, it's okay if he loses some of those rushing stats. I need to see the two combined. All right. We do have a Lamar Jackson stat coming up a little bit later. A few things I want to tell you about. Our Facebook

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fantasy football today over there is it threads.com i don't know if they've got threads.com it's on the app you go to the app store yeah app i'm still a laptop guy that's that probably shouldn't surprise many people uh i do have some apps. I'll put it on my phone. Let's see. What else can I tell you about? Oh, we got to. So we do have some progress on the announcement I made yesterday where we had four people who bid on spots in a listener league last year in the draft-a-thon, donated to St. Jude. Of course, thank you for that. I've gotten in touch, I think, with two of you, but David Kuhn and Nick Kajer. And if you're listening, Kihan Lin,

please reach out, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. That's the letter I. Please send us an email. Let us know that you're one of the people who we haven't contacted and that you're in that listener league so we can remedy that. News and notes.

Just one thing here. Jeremy Fowler went on ESPN yesterday and said the Jets are doing their homework on Brees Hall and they are in the mix along with other AFC East teams. But Dave, when you hear that the Jets are... Did I say Brees Hall? Because I meant Dalvin Cook. I don't know if you said that or not. Okay, I'm sorry. But it's Dalvin Cook. Dalvin Cook. Yeah, the question was the Jets are in the mix for Dalvin Cook. When you hear that, does that make you hesitant to draft Brees Hall? He's currently going around 36th overall.

I mean, there's another headline that says that the level of Patriots intrigue with Dalvin Cook bears watching. Yep. So there is some team in the AFC East that seems to have some interest in Dalvin Cook. And the agent, I would assume, is just spouting off, oh yeah, the Jets also want him and the Patriots also want him and his brothers in Buffalo.

And what's the one team that's missing that Dalvin Cook was linked to at the beginning of his free agency? Whatever they are. Look, if he goes to the Jets, that's obviously a sign. If any decent running back goes to the Jets, it's a sign that A, they're unhappy with their depth, which is a little startling, and B, that Brees Hall might not be ready to go week one. All right. Well, with that said, we're going to take a quick break here. We'll be ready to go in one second. We'll be right back after this with some more crazy stats. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference.

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What else you got? What else I got? How about another receiver stat? And this one surprised me. I wanted to find something that would help us, you know, get a little bit of a clearer picture on the Seattle passing game. And this is what I came up with. Tyler Lockett has scored more PPR and non-PPR points per game a little bit of a clearer picture on the Seattle passing game. And this is what I came up with. Tyler Lockett has scored more PPR and non-PPR points per game than DK Metcalf in each of the past two years. And they were really close in 2020 as well. And the numbers are, it's crazy,

13.3 PPR points per game for DK in 2022, 14.8 for Tyler Lockett in 2022, 13.9 for Metcalf in 2021, 14.6 for Lockett. So some consistency there for both of them, but for Lockett, I mean, that's pretty close to 15 PPR points per game. 2020, that's the year that DK was higher than Tyler Lockett, 16.6 PPR points per game. The dude was a monster, but 16.3 for Tyler Lockett. I, it makes me wonder, well, why am I drafting Metcalf so much higher than Lockett? I think the answer is because he's consistently gotten more targets per game. It's almost literally one target more per game than, than Tyler Lockett's been getting over the last two years. And they were really close. Lockett was actually ahead of him in 2020. And the other reason is that he's got a chance to just explode

as far as touchdowns go. I couldn't find anything specifically to make me nervous about either wide receiver in relation to JSN, but I should note that I think it's like a two-to-one split for how often Tyler Lockett lined up out wide compared to the slot. He was out wide more. Much more. But his stats were about even.

So if JSN is going to be in the slot a lot more, then I think that that could certainly take away targets from both of the veteran wide receivers. It could end up hurting Lockett just a little bit more. His consensus ADP on CBS is at 73rd overall, early round seven. Love that value for Tyler Lockett. Yeah, if there's a Seattle wide receiver, Billy, that you're interested in drafting at cost,

and let's just take a look. NFC ADP since June 10th or June 15th. Metcalf is 30th overall. Lockett is 65th. And Jackson, Smith, and Jigba is 87th. What? It sounds good to you, Billy.

Uh, I like lock it again. I agree with Dave on this one as well. A buddy of mine in the high stakes streets always says the same thing. Why do we draft lock it when we can have, or why do we draft DK when we can have lock it, you know, five rounds later.

And it just makes sense because everything Dave just mentioned, uh, this offense, Jackson Smith, the Jigba is the odd man out for me. I understand they drafted him. Round one, he's an exceptional talent. More of a 2024 play for me than a 2023 play.

Seattle runs some of the most 12 personnel inside the league, and a lot of people will say, well, they may change that in 2023. However, they also drafted a running back in round two by the name of Zach Charbonnet, and they still have two tight ends that they always like to use. And so I don't think we're going to see 12 personnel go away completely. They may run less of it, but it's still going to be near the top of the league, which when you run 12 personnel, there's one odd receiver out. And when you've had a tandem in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, I'm sorry to say, but Jackson Smith and Jigba will be the odd man out

inside of this receiving core. And I think the public really likes JSN. The ADP kind of suggests that he's a top 90 pick, according to what you were telling us, Adam. Yeah, I think I think a lot of people see JSN as the first receiver off the board. They remember what he did at Ohio State in 2021, and they want to get on board with that. I agree with Billy. I think he's i think he's terrific in dynasty you have no argument out of me that he's wide receiver one in dynasty and rookie only drafts and all that uh and i'm willing to give him credit that maybe he's like a second half of the season play for this coming year but i i don't see myself reaching into late round eight

for jackson smith and jig. All right. So Billy, you've given us a stat on Justin Fields. Give us another one. What do you got? Not on Justin Fields, a different stat here. Crazy stat might have a little biasness on this one. There's some red and gold behind me,

but Brock Purdy's touchdown rate of 7.6% led all qualified quarterbacks with at least 350 snaps in the NFL. He finished ahead of some of the league's most talented and respected players, including a one Patrick Mahomes at 6.3%, Josh Allen at 6.2%, Joe Burrow at 5.9%, and Dak Prescott at 5.8%. I said on January 1st, 2023, that Brock Purdy would remain the starter in San Francisco. And I stand behind that given his recovery timeline. He's ahead of schedule.

And I think if he is cleared for week one, he remains the starter. And the San Francisco offense picks up where it left off because Brock Purdy showed that he could run this West Coast offense here inside the Shanahan system. You know, he had seven straight games, including the postseason with multiple touchdown passes. Jimmy Garoppolo's career long streak was four games, is four games of consecutive games with multiple touchdown passes. So that's just incredible that Purdy did it in seven straight games. Basically his first seven games, you know, he came in early in one game and then the rest were starts. But, you know, you said you picked up where it left off.

And Dave, why don't we transition into your Christian McCaffrey stat here, your Kyle Shanahan stat. And let's talk about the 49ers more generally here, because for fantasy analysts trying to figure out how the ball is going to get distributed, I think it's one of the more difficult things for the San Francisco 49ers more generally here because for fantasy analysts trying to figure out how the ball is going to get distributed i think it's one of the more difficult things for the san francisco 49ers and how to project all these guys we talk about it so often but dave what is your uh christian mccaffrey stat this is more of like a fun fact because i don't think this necessarily means anything when it comes to christian mccaffrey certainly i've got him ranked number one overall

at running back for a reason but sh Shanahan's never had a running back get over 1,000 yards in a season. Been in San Francisco for six years. Rushing, right? Rushing. Total yards? Yes, of course. But rushing?

Listen, CMC was on pace for like 1150 last year. He would have been the first guy to have done it. A bunch of guys have gotten close. Elijah Mitchell in 2021 at 963. Carlos Hyde, 938. This is a question for Billy, Mr. 49ers fan. Who is

the last 49ers running back to get over 1,000 yards? Frank Gore. There's the cred. I don't know if the oh wow is really worthy of that. You set it up. I don't know if the oh, wow is really worthy of that. Well, you set it up. You set it up like, oh, I'm going to stump him.

I think even an average 49ers fan could have guessed Frank Gore. The way that Billy said it, though, that was conviction right there. 2014 was the last time. It's been almost 10 years. Almost 10 years. I think the only way McCaffrey doesn't get it is if he, well, you know, I'm not going to say it. Wait a sec.

Can I ask Billy a 49ers question? Okay, so who was the last, before this past season, when Kittle and I think Ayuk also had more than five touchdown catches, who was the last 49ers pass catcher to have more than five touchdown catches before 2022? Ooh, was it Crabtree? No. Now, I have the tendency to

ask questions that I don't 100% know the answer to, but I think I know. I'm pretty sure it was Vernon Davis. I can see that. How many did Debo have in 2021? I think he had five. He had five receiving touchdowns. A bunch of rushing touchdowns.

Okay. Anyway, so Billy, what do you think about the 49ers offense? You've got McCaffrey as potentially Yeah. Okay. Iuke is so interesting. People love him as a profile, but fantasy production isn't necessarily there. So your projections for the 49ers offense, I guess. Yeah, I think with Brock Purdy coming off of injury, I think we can see a pretty clear cut path of how this offense is actually going to shake out for at least the first quarter of the season.

I don't think they're going to want to push the ball down the field all that much as they conserve his elbow. They don't probably want it to flare up. So I think that this is going to benefit Debo Samuel. It's going to benefit Christian McCaffrey, and it's going to benefit George Kittle drastically for maybe the first three, four weeks. After that, once they gain a little bit more trust in Purdy's elbows, he regained some confidence. He gets more strength. I think they may start changing that defense so they're not as predictable. And we probably see a little bit more from Iyuk as the season progresses on. Iyuk had a very quiet 1,000 yards last year. I mean, it was one of the quietest 1,000-yard season we've seen at a receiver in some time. That being said, I still think that he had a

better connection with George Kittle. We saw that touchdown streak that he had down the stretch. It was multiple two-game touchdown streaks. That touchdown rate is unsustainable. However, if the offense is efficient again, and as efficient, we may see that kind of make up for it in targets. And so I think that Purdy was exceptional as a rookie with getting through his progression. Sometimes he got through his second and his third progression, which gave the offense a little bit more chances to get the ball out of

his hand and into his playmaker's hand. That's what he succeeded inside this West Coast offense, because all you need to do is get your playmakers the ball. And we saw that from Brock Purdy. And so I like the way this target distribution is going to shake up. I think Iyuk is probably the odd man out at least the beginning of the season. And as they progress, probably picks up a little bit more. Iuke is another popular buzz guy in the public's eye. There's been all kinds of reports about him looking great in minicamp. I'm sure that'll continue into training camp. I view him as a still not quite complete wide receiver,

but the things that he does well, those slants, the goes, man, he's great at them. And if he sees a leap as far as targets go, he'll crush 1,000 yards again. It won't be so quiet this time. I also want to mention that there's an article on ESPN. The headline is, Is it time for the 49ers to give George Kittle a breather? And it talks about how the Niners might be ready to start using other tight ends in their offense and kind of take some reps off of George Kittle coming into the year.

And we know that Kittle, when everybody was healthy in that 49ers offense, really wasn't, he wasn't utilized a ton and he wasn't really great for fantasy. And so it's just another thing to remember when you're drafting tight ends yeah yes there was a time where purdy and kittle a ton of tight ends but some of the other target getters in that 49ers offense weren't on the field when it was happening i'm starting to get a little bit worried that kittle might be a touchdown needy like more than normal uh tight end and fantasy and not somebody that you should quite reach for yeah his problem is he's just such a good blocker, right? And that's where they use him all the time is in line blocking. And I mean, he loves it. I mean, you see him out there laying people down

and just jumping up for joy. It's awesome to watch and his energy is contagious. But I would hope that when they give him a breather, maybe it's in line, Dave. That's the hope here. Yeah. So by the way, the stat I gave about the touchdown catches, it was actually more than six touchdown catches,

not more than five. So again, I try. You did warn us. I do my best, yeah. And that's how many Debo had. He had six in 2021. But that was the, you know, Iuke had eight and Kittle had 11 last year.

That's the first time since I believe Vernon Davis for a 49ers pass catcher to have more than six touchdown catches. Okay, Dave, let's get another stat here. We've talked about Brock Purdy. We've talked about Justin Fields, DJ Moore, the Seattle wide receivers. What's next for you? Let's go back to Lamar Jackson because earlier I asked Billy how he looked at Lamar compared to Justin Fields. I have Fields over Lamar because I think Fields can hit that 3,000 passing yard mark, and I still think he'll run the ball

a little bit more. And I'm a little bit nervous about Lamar Jackson just in general, but he was a red zone liability not just last year. And I know that he was great for fantasy early on, number one QB, all that. But the year before,

a red zone liability, the opposite of what Justin Fields was in 2022. His completion rate in the red zone, 50.5%. That was below league average. His touchdown rate, 24.3%. And let's stop right there. You might say, well, that number's huge. I mean, Billy just talked about how Brock Purdy's touchdown rate was 7.6%. This is specifically in the red zone. That number, 24.3%, slightly above average. You know,

the quarterbacks tend to throw a lot of touchdowns when they're in the red zone. That's why it's such a big deal. Interception rate in the red zone, 2.9%, the fifth highest. Off-target throws, this was huge for me. 19.4% of Lamar Jackson's throws over the last two seasons were off-target. That was the third highest behind Big Ben and behind Russell Wilson. A lot of that for Russell, as you guys know, that came in 2022. And you'll say, all right, well, he'll still just run it in a ton. That's what Lamar Jackson does. He's only scored five

rushing touchdowns over his last two seasons. And four of them came from inside the 10. From the red zone. What'd I say? End zone? No, no, no, no. He's only scored five rushing touchdowns from the red zone. Five rushing touchdowns total. Four were inside the 10 over the last two seasons. Oh, okay. And you guys know, 10 games missed.

I know that they've added. I like the Monk and higher, too. I'm a little nervous about Odell Beckham ever being what he once was. I think we can all agree that that ship has sailed. I'm a little nervous about Rashad Bateman still struggling to come back from his broken foot. I love Zay Flowers, but he's a rookie. How long is it going to take him to get adapted to the offense? I have absolutely nothing bad to say about Mark Andrews. That guy's a stud. Please draft him. But I'm nervous about Lamar Jackson, who's, I don't think he's been above 25 fantasy

points per game over the balance of a season since 2019, since the MVP year. I'm going to lean toward Fields over Jackson. It's really close. And if you were to tell me I'll just take whichever quarterback lasts longer in my draft, I get to round four, round five, whichever one's there, I'll take. I'm good with that, too. But if I have a preference between the two, it's Fields. And this red zone data kind of helps me with that. So I guess my question would be, you know,

do you think that the red zone data is something that's going to stick? Do you, you know, because, or do you think it's just kind of every year could be completely different? You know, you're obviously factoring into your analysis, Dave, so you think this actually matters? I mean, it's been two years of this. Right. So it's not like we can say one year he was great,

and then one year he was bad. Do you want me to go back into 2020 and then compare how he was before then. I could, but this is, this is what he has done for us lately. I want you to go all the way back to college, Dave. I want you to compare it.

I listened, Billy. I got that data. I can look it up. How about this? That for him? Cause Jackson is a great rusher, but unlike a guy like Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts,

he doesn't run a lot from near the goal line. He has seven career rushing touchdowns from three yards out or closer. Lamar Jackson, seven career rushing touchdowns. I'm trying to do this on the fly. I think Josh Allen has something like 18. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17. I love hearing you count. 18.

So Josh Allen in his career has 18. Not wearing socks today. It was huge. 18 rushing touchdowns from three yards out or closer. Lamar Jackson has seven. He doesn't do that. He doesn't line up like Jalen Hurts and get pushed into the end zone. He doesn't do that like Josh Allen does.

So that's been part of his profile, actually. It is something to keep in mind. I would say he's less likely to have a 10 rushing touchdown season than the other guys, you know, maybe more like seven. All right, Billy, give me another stat another stat we got here is no wide receiver has finished as the back-to-back wide receiver one in total fantasy points since antonio brown did it from 2014 through 2007 2017 hence why i have jamar chase ranked ahead of justin jeff Jefferson for the 2023 season.

A few supporting stats here is Chase saw 11.2 targets a game versus Justin Jefferson's 10.8. Chase saw a 33.3 red zone target share versus Jefferson's 27.2%. Chase saw a snap share of 93.1% versus Jefferson's 91.5. We're splitting hairs on that one, but we're cherry-picking them. Chase route participation was 100% versus Jefferson's 91.5. We're splitting hairs on that one, but we're, we're cherry picking them. Chase route participation was a hundred percent versus Jefferson's 96.7. And Chase's touchdown rate of 9.8% surpassed Jefferson's of 6.8%. I like the offense inside the bangles. I like Joe Burrow as a quarterback more.

I am leaning chase over Jefferson in 2023. Yeah. What do you Dave? I agree in non PPR because I think the touchdowns matter. Chase over Jefferson in 2023. Yeah. Dave, are you? I agree in non-PPR because I think the touchdowns matter. I think that Chase will score more touchdowns than Jefferson. And I think the yardage, I don't know if the yardage will be super close, but I think the catches are still going to favor Justin Jefferson, even with Jordan Addison being there.

Addison can just basically take what Adam Thielen left behind. And I think that still leaves a lot there for Jefferson to reel in. I'm counting on those catches to help Jefferson eke out more PPR points than what Chase will get. All right, Jefferson, as I said this before, he did lead the NFL in catches in which he was tackled at the one-yard line. He had four of them. And it's amazing for him to have as many targets, as many catches, as many yards as he had last year and only eight receiving touchdowns.

It's kind of crazy. But Joe Burrow to Jamar Chase is pretty damn reliable. So for Billy, is that across all formats for you for Chase over Jefferson? Yeah, back to the stat of the targets per game. I mean, it's slightly, you know, it's slightly more 10.8 versus 11.2. If we extrapolate that, we could potentially see Jamar chase as the number one most targeted receiver in the NFL this year. Yeah. I just think Justin Jefferson, he only played half of week 18, and I wonder if you took out those five targets in one game,

if that would be even closer. And then for me, you know, Jamar Chase had only a nine-yard ADOT. Jefferson was something like 10.2. But Chase in his rookie year was a much more downfield target, right? And then the Bengals' offense really changed last year because teams were taking that away. So a lot of short area stuff. So I do wonder, guys, if they get back to,

maybe Chase is somewhere in the middle. Because I don't think Jamar Chase should be a nine-yard ADOT guy. He's too talented of a downfield guy. To me, he felt more like a Tyreek Hill type of profile than an old Tyreek Hill with the Chiefs. Not as many catches, but a ton of yards and touchdowns. And then he totally transformed into a very high target, very high catch guy, but fewer yards per catch, yards per target, those types of things. So that's my, I don't want to call it a concern. They're one and two or one, two and three, you know, maybe cup is in there, but I guess

that'd be a concern for Chase is that he gets a higher ADOT again, fewer targets, and fewer catches. Whereas the yards and the touchdowns won't really be affected necessarily. Maybe the yards go up. But the catches and the targets down, Billy. Can you see that scenario? I think it's a viable concern. I could see that scenario. And if you're based upon the trend that we have from 2021, 2022, you could assume it could potentially remain.

That being said, I think that Chase is just such a tantalizing player. And I mean, so is Jefferson. Don't get me wrong. I just like the overall volume of this offense. I like the overall efficiency of this offense. I think we're going to see more shootouts from this team with with other teams. It just breaks down to total total fantasy points for me. We're splitting hairs here at one and two. I wouldn't argue either way. If someone wants Jefferson over Chase, someone wants Chase over Jefferson. For me, it's just a slight edge to Jamar Chase, and I wouldn't complain if you had

one or the other ranked ahead of the other. And you like Cup third? I do not like Cup third, actually. Are you on Team Tyreek? I am on Team Tyreek. I have Cup very close behind Tyreek, but just with the Rams' inefficiencies, their offensive line is a concern. Stafford got a little banged up last year. What's the rest of his supporting cast look like?

Are they going to be able to double-team Cup this year? Van Jefferson is arguably the number two, or Higby, whoever you want to throw there, is the number two option. It just doesn't look as balanced this year, and I think that Cup could see more double teams. All right, let's take a break here. When we come back, we got one more stat from Dave,

one more from Billy. We'll talk about TJ Hawkinson, and then we'll talk about a team'll talk about tj hawkinson and then we'll talk about a team stat okay it's not a fantasy stat but a very fun stat about two teams uh one of which has certainly had the upper hand we'll be right back all right dave what do you got on tj hawkinson do you want to read your title of this stat nope that was for you um hawkinson last year uh with minnesota last 10 games 13 ppr points per game fantasy managers see that and they salivate and they go oh hell yeah you know this guy might be the next mark andrews

something to that effect but if you take out the game against the giants according to the math i have here 10.4 ppr points per game so very heavily weighted on that monster blow up game against giants and i believe he had another really good game against Giants. And I believe he had another really good game against the Giants in the playoffs. He had 8.6 targets per game last time in Minnesota, but that number was 7.8 if you take out the Giants game. This isn't to say that TJ Hawkinson is not going to be a top five to top three tight end in PPR, but I would not advise reaching for him based on the general stats that he had with Minnesota last year. I also think that once Jordan Addison does get going and starts practicing with the team, I think his explosiveness will give him an edge

in target volume. It might be really close between those two, but it wouldn't surprise me if Hawkinson devolved a little bit into six and a half targets per game, four catches per game, still a bigger role than what he had in Detroit. And certainly somebody who could score seven touchdowns, eight touchdowns over the balance of the season, still a good fantasy tight end, but one that won't be what we saw overall in his time with Minnesota last year. Billy, your thoughts? Oh man, I don't know if I agree with Dave on this one. First and foremost, I have to say,

we can't just take away the Giants game like it didn't exist. It still existed. And I understand that it was one big blow-up game that may have skewed some of the stats. Nonetheless, it still counts on the records inside the stat book. And I think that losing Adam Feele in 107 targets, I think it opens up a little bit more for TJ Hawkinson. I liked that they added Addison.

I think that he's going to have a pretty productive rookie season. Nonetheless, he's still a rookie, may have a learning curve. They may lean a little heavier on TJ Hawkinson to start the season, at least the first four, five, six weeks, which then you may have another blow-up Giants game in the mix during that time, which could skew the stats again for 2023. Overall, I like the overall volume of the offense as well. Like I said earlier, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase argument, we're splitting hairs. But when we're talking about tight ends, it's a different story because the distribution of

targets to this offense is pretty clear that Hawkinson is going to probably remain a top two or three option inside this passing game. And anytime we have a tight end that has the possibility of being a number two in an offense, we have to look at them, right? And tight ends to get over 100 targets in general are usually pretty fantasy relevant. And I have Hawkinson projected for just under 120 targets, which is 20% of the target share inside of this offense.

And we have the Vikings projected for a top eight amount in passing attempts inside the league in 2023. Have to like the volume for TJ Hawkinson. I think that he has another blow up game or even two this season. We saw four games above double digit targets last year. We saw several at nine as well. It's hard for me to pass on TJ Hawkinson at cost. And I think that he has an opportunity to potentially outscore Mark

Andrews in 2023. Sounds like you have him at third. I do have my three. Okay. Yeah. So I get it. We last week, last Friday,

we, we debated the top five tight ends was me, Chris and Dan. And basically what we thought was between Hawkinson, in any order, Hawkinson, Pitts, Goddard, Waller, Kittle. There's an odd man out there. Who? Pitts.

Okay, okay. Well, for those five tight ends, we felt for Hawkinson, Pitts, Waller, Kittle, Goddard, we felt any of those five could conceivably be ranked tight end three. You know, three through seven, three, four, five, six, seven, was more or less interchangeable. And we felt there was no reason to take TJ Hawkinson.

He's going early in the fourth round, I think, because you should just wait a few more rounds and get anyone else in that group. That's kind of how we felt. Do you feel that way? That's viable as well. I think, honestly, if you don't take Kelsey, you might as well just wait on tight end all the way down just because people will debate about where there's a dead zone for tight end. And you could argue it starts at number two. You could argue it starts at three. You could

argue it starts at four. Either way, I think that you always have a tight end outside of the top 12 who finishes as a tight end one on every season. And so I would much rather wait at tight end if I don't get Kelsey and just analyze the talent on a weekly basis, the target share, the snap share, the routes run and take advantage of someone who's going to finish inside the top 12 who I drafted

outside the top 12 or even picked up on waivers like Waller that year was going undrafted in a lot of leagues. Not all of them, Billy. Not all of them. Round 20 in a lot, round 19 in some. No, a little earlier than that. Yeah, that was a great call that year for Waller. All right, so anyway, let's get our last stat here,

and it's going to be on the New York Jets. What a fun stat you got billy for us here yeah so the new york jets have never beaten the philadelphia eagles since 1973 or i should say when they actually this this was started being tracked in 1973 they've met a total of 12 times most recently in 2019 and 2021 the eagles have won all 12 of them they play this season week six at new york is this the year that it happens nope nope probably not but i'm very high on the jets actually i don't know how you guys feel yeah very high i think that they brought rogers in just for this stat they wanted to beat the eagles right it's a lost season if they don't win that game.

If you think they want to beat the Eagles, you don't know what the Giants fans are feeling like, okay? The Giants want to beat the Eagles. It seems like a long time since they've beaten the Eagles in any meaningful game. All right, so let's see if the Jets can do it this year. We got some bonus stats for you. Those were our eight crazy stats we got.

Oh, I've never seen that movie. Dave, you ever see that sequel, Eight Crazy Stats? No, never. Okay, me either. You had one on, it's an Eight Crazy Nights joke. I don't know if anybody was getting it. Michael Pittman. Michael Pittman. Obviously, Dave, you like Red Zone

stats because you brought it up. Well, I mean, what happens in the Red Zone, Adam? I just don't know. I just don't know. I don't know if it translates year after year i mean i've seen guys um that it like who like julio jones we always just talk about him not scoring touchdowns if you look at julio jones's red zone targets year after year they are a roller coaster they're up and down and up there's no consistency there so i just don't know if they will translate. I don't believe that a guy can't be good in the red zone. Put it that way. Of course. Everybody can

be good in the red zone, but when they're not good in the red zone, that's a red flag to me, especially when it's been that way over their first three NFL seasons, which is the case for Michael Pittman. What do you got on Pittman? 38 targets in the red zone, 22 catches, 8 touchdowns. The eight touchdowns

ranks 34th among wide receivers for each of the past two seasons. And so I dug a little bit deeper because I figure, especially when the Colts get inside the 10, inside the five, do you think it's going to enter Shane Sikens' mind? Okay, we got to throw it to Michael Pittman. Like for every one time that that might happen, there might be seven times that he says, let's run it with blank Taylor Richardson or Richardson and Taylor. They've got two guys that are capable of dominating inside the five with the ball tucked into their elbow, inside of their elbow,

whatever that what's this part of the body called Billy. This part, like this part, this part. Yeah. The top of your elbow. Yeah. That's like the other side of the body called billy this part like this part this part yeah the top your elbow yeah that's like the other side of the elbow it's the line it's the inner elbow gorilla monsoon never taught me what this part of the body was on primetime wrestling so i just don't know bottom line is this if pitman wasn't a great red zone threat before anthony richardson came to indianapolis how can i expect him to be one now?

I keep getting colder and colder on Michael Pittman. I'm going to give you four names. I want you to rank them. One of them has been a very consistent red zone guy. The other three we've talked about on today's show. Michael Pittman, DJ Moore, Brandon Ayuk, and Mike Evans. How would you rank Pittman,

DJ Moore, Ayuk, and Evans? In the red zone? No, no. Just overall for then iuk and mike evans uh how would you rank pitman dj more iuk and evans uh let me in the red zone no no just overall for fantasy how i haven't ranked now might not be how i haven't ranked two weeks from now it's more first evans and pitman are back to back and i don't really love them and iuk i haven't really adjusted yet but he's behind them all so far. And I have Evans, Pittman, DJ Moore, then Ayuk. Oh, wow. So you're pretty low on DJ Moore, as you were saying. Yeah, the only consensus we have really is Evans over Pittman and then Ayuk last.

Okay. I got a couple of stats. Jalen Hurts has scored 10 and 13 rushing touchdowns in his last two seasons. Since 2001, there have been seven quarterbacks, not necessarily seven different quarterbacks, but seven quarterback seasons where the quarterback has scored double-digit rushing touchdowns.

So Jalen Hurts twice, Cam Newton three times, Dante Culpepper, and Kyler Murray. So far, Hurts is the only one to repeat with a double-digit rushing touchdown season. He's the only one to score more than eight the next season. The other quarterback scored four, eight, five, five, and five rushing touchdowns the following season. One of those five rushing touchdown seasons was in seven games. But usually you see a pretty big drop when a guy scores double-digit rushing touchdowns at quarterback. It's not easy to do it the following year. Hurts has done it. pretty big drop when a guy scores double digit rushing touchdowns at quarterback. It's not easy to do it the following year.

Hurts has done it. Now, what can you do in the third season coming off of 13 rushing touchdowns in 15 games? I don't know. Is that Billy? Is that stat mean anything to you? It's a good stat, but I think they're signaling they want him to run less as well. I think that him getting hurt last year probably ruined their chances of a Super Bowl. I think if he were to remain healthy down the stretch, it changes the landscape a little bit, and they may win a Super Bowl. And so they bring in Swift.

They bring in Rashad Penny, although the two combined may only play 13 games. We'll find out. But nonetheless, they may want him to run less to stay healthy. Strength of schedule this year also is not as, as easy as it was last year. So we may see a change of game script, a little bit more pass attempts, maybe a little bit less rushing volume to kill the clock from hurts.

I know a lot of these are scrambles as well. So I think it's still within the realm of possibilities of a double digit touchdown season on the ground. I would say three in a row might be a little difficult to achieve, but I'm probably a bet against it in 2023. All right, my last one here, this is sort of a landscape stat. In six-point-per-passing touchdown leagues, Geno Smith was QB8 per game.

He averaged 21.4 fantasy points per game. So he was QB8. Here's how he would have ranked among quarterbacks at 21.4 points per game in the previous eight seasons. Ninth, 15th, eighth, seventh. So from that group of four years, you know, pretty good. Top 10, three or four years.

Yeah, top nine. Then the four years before 2022, 21.4 points per game would have been 13th, 10th, 15th, and 13th per game. So when I look at Geno Smith, that's why I asked when we were talking about him earlier this week, can he be better than he was? Because to me, I see top eight upside, like eighth, which is what he was last year.

And if we get back to having a better year at quarterback, maybe not even top 12 per game. So I think when you evaluate Geno Smith, you really have to evaluate how you feel about the quarterback position. Are we going to have a bounce back? Or did we just have kind of a four-year stretch of this, of like a mini golden era of quarterback play, and now we're going to be back to just good,

not incredible quarterback play? It's a question you have to ask yourself, Dave. Oh, I think we're getting golden quarterback play. There's so much great talent across the league that I have a hard time believing that it's going to slouch. Well, how do you replace Brady, Rogers, Wilson? Well, we did last year. No, we didn't last year.

They all stunk, and that's why we had a terrible year for quarterbacks compared to the four years before that. Now, I said Brady, Rogers, Wilson. Maybe Rogers and Wilson bounce back. But do you see – I think they do. Kyler's not going to be the top five-ish guy that he always has been. Maybe Watson comes back.

Maybe – No, Justin Herbert's got to bounce back. Yeah. Billy's counting on that for one, for sure. Trevor Lawrence, maybe he becomes Trevor Lawrence takes a step. Yep.

I don't know. I mean, we are seeing with Brady retiring with Rogers in his, you know, in his twilight years with Wilson, maybe over the hill. I mean, I like Wilson as a bounce back,

but that's like a dart throw. Um, might be seeing an era where Gino Smith is still a top eight quarterback, but if it goes back to the way things were, I don't think that Geno's really going to pay off unless he has a much better year. Geno was sneaky good last year, like really sneaky. And the only thing that I would have to say I caution against with Geno is he was very lucky in the interceptable passes category.

He actually threw the most potentially interceptable passes in the interceptable passes category. He actually threw the most inter potentially interceptable passes in the league with 41. If we see even 10% of those break the other way, he's probably outside of the top 10 at the position. So that being said, I think he has the weapons. He was very accurate in other categories. I mean,

he was the most accurate quarterback in the league last year. And so I think that there's a lot to like about Gino, but there is still some caution with him as well. Yeah, and he threw 11 interceptions last year, and nine of them, no, seven of them came in the last seven games of the season. So that rate really picked up. All right, Billy, thank you so much for coming on our show and delivering some awesome statistics. We appreciate

it, man. Yeah, I appreciate the invite, guys. Always like talking some football. I always say iron sharpens iron, and it's great to get different insights and takes on different players. I have no idea what element I am. I'm definitely not iron.

Thank you. Dave is definitely the iron man here. That is Billy Muzio. Follow him at F F Muzio, M U Z I O and on player profiler.com. And we'll talk to you tomorrow with a mailbag here, fantasy football at cbsi.com. We'll talk to you tomorrow with that mailbag.