Fantasy Football Today - Eight Early Rankings Disputes! McBride, Goff, Metcalf and More (06/17 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 17, 2024

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts Heath has Trey McBride as his #1 tight end while Dave and Jamey have him as TE4 (2:10)! That's our first rankings dispute followed by some news and notes (10:50) on Tee Higgins, Trevor Lawrence and more ... Let's debate James Conner (18:30), Jaylen Warren (22:22) and Mike Evans (28:30). Age comes into play when discussing Conner and Evans. As far as Warren goes, how much will Arthur Smith help him? Should he really be ranked in the Top 24? ... Rankings disputes for DK Metcalf (37:50), D.J. Moore (44:00), Jared Goff (51:00) and Caleb Williams (52:50). We've got a sneaky good stat on Goff and an upside debate on Williams ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races! And he stays on his feet! He's just going to go the distance! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Welcome to another week of fantasy football today. What's going on?

The whole gang is here. I'm Adam Azer with Heath Cummings, Dave Richard, and Jamie Isenberg. It is Monday, June 17th. Pretty soon we'll be at five days a week. Still gonna be at four days a week this week and I think through the end of June. No show on Wednesday. It's Juneteenth and then we'll have a show on Friday for you.

Today we have some rankings disputes. We're gonna look at Trey McBride, James Conner, Jalen Warren, Mike Evans, DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, Jared Goff, and Caleb Williams. One of the three of these guys is going to be a lot higher or a lot lower than the other two, and we'll talk about it. But a belated happy Father's Day, guys. How was your Father's Day? It was good.

It was great. Thank you. How was yours? Mine was great. I swam, played some soccer with the kids and other, and like cousin, you know, nephews. And then I had dessert for dinner.

It was great. I had ice cream cake, chocolate cake, strawberry cake, banana bread, two Rice Krispie treats, and some fruit, all for dinner. It was like, you ever read the Very Hungry Caterpillar? Now you're a diabetic. Yeah, it was banana bread, two Rice Krispie treats, and some fruit all for dinner. Wow. You ever read The Very Hungry Caterpillar?

Now you're a diabetic. Yeah, it was great. It was awesome. Dave, the look on your face, you're like, whoa. Even the fat guy on the show was like, damn, that's a lot. Yeah. Well, when you don't eat dinner, you have a lot of room for dessert. I guess.

Anyway, Heath. Trey McBride, you have first in your tight end rankings we're looking at ppr rankings by the way for these guys you have trey mcbride first jamie and dave have him fourth full disclosure it's gonna be a lot of heath you have this guy here the other teeth versus the world yeah you ever see scott pilgrim versus the world underrated movie but heath uh you have Trey McBride first. Is it an action movie? It's more action than like, I just watched, I finished mission impossible. I would say Scott

Pilgrim has more action than that. Oh boy. I have no idea. I've never seen or heard of Scott Pilgrim, but yeah, I, I have my projections very, very close. And actually Sam Laporte is not one of them, but he's right behind them. But McBride, Kelsey, and Andrews, I think Kelsey is actually just ahead of McBride, but I've got a little bit of concern that the Chiefs at some point decide to save Kelsey a little bit like they maybe did last year. So that's bumped him behind McBride, which makes McBride tied in one. He's about 15 fantasy points per game from week 10 on after Kyler Murray took over as the quarterback. And he did that with just two touchdowns.

I would expect the touchdown production to improve this year. He was on pace for 1,143 yards, but it's not just what he did. That's what this offense is set up to do. We've talked about it with Kevin Stefanski. We've talked about it with Alex Van Pelt going to New England. It's a tight end centric offense. Zach Ertz playing with Trey McBride was on pace for 110 targets before he got hurt. And I do think Marvin Harrison is going to have some impact on that.

But there's seven targets per game that we're going to Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore. So we don't have to just create 10 targets a game for Marvin Harris and out of thin air. We've got to create three or four. I would expect McBride's efficiency also going to be much better. He was a yard per target better playing with Kyler Murray than he was with the other quarterbacks. Okay, Jamie, why is Heath wrong? You've got McBride fourth. I know it's like a big four for everybody.

You and Dave have McBride fourth. Heath has him first. Tell us why you don't have him ahead of the other three. Yeah, I don't think Heath is wrong. I just think that the other three guys are slightly better, mostly because of the touchdown potential. And I think that's something that will bounce back for Kelsey. Obviously, scoring five last year is not something you expect from him.

Even if he is talking about a reduced role, understanding where he is at in his career and where this team is at, wanting him to be at his best as the end of the season playoffs approach, because they're trying to get their third Superbowl. I think Mark Andrews bounces back from a health standpoint and plays at the level that he was trending at, which was over 13 and a half PPR points per game, right at the same level as the other guys.

And I think Laporta stays in the eight plus touchdown range. So that's why I like those guys better. And obviously as, as Heath alluded to, there's going to be more competition for targets with the Cardinals. So I think there's a big four. I'm starting to get to the point where there's a big five because I think Dalton Kincaid takes that step forward. But just in the case of what these guys accomplished last year and what they should accomplish this year, I think McBride is worth taking in the first four rounds, mostly in round four and the back end around four, but in the first four rounds, I have round four, in the back end round four, but in the first four rounds. I have him as tight end four because I do think there's a little bit more upside again from the touchdown potential. But I think all these guys have the opportunity to finish as tight end one.

And hopefully McBride does it because there's a lot to like about his game and his situation. McBride averaged over eight targets per game with Kyler Murray last year. I don't see that repeating. I know that there's a lot of targets that need to be replaced in Arizona. I think Marvin Harrison is going to not only replace all of those targets, but get more than that. We've seen Kyler Murray throw as many as 10 targets per game to his number one wide receiver.

And he's not the only one getting headlines. They're talking about Greg Dorch is a slot receiver breaking out this year, which sounds kind of crazy, but whatever, that's what of crazy, but whatever. That's what they're saying in camp. Michael Wilson's still there. He might be good for three or four targets per game. I'm nervous about McBride getting back to eight targets per game.

If you, Heath, were to tell me that you've got him projected for 7.0 targets per game, I think I could buy into that. But I still think he's not going to see more than two touchdowns. Yes, but like eight touchdowns. That's where I think Jamie's right. I also agree that there's a top five at tight end. And I don't want to overdraft McBride when he had this great second half without really anybody else stepping up in that passing game for Arizona. We're banking on Marvin Harrison.

We've we I don't know about Heath. I know I've got him as a top 10 wide receiver. I think you all have him ninth. You all have Harrison ninth. So I don't see how McBride can be one and Marvin Harrison finishes top 10. This sounds like a case of drafting a player too close to his ceiling when it comes to McBride going any higher than fourth. And that's only in full PPR.

And non-PPR, I think I have him fifth, Adam. Oh, okay. So it really does come down to touchdowns. In the last eight games with Kyler Murray, forget about the two games he played before that. He had a huge game against Baltimore, and then everyone was terrible at Cleveland. Last eight games, he averaged,

I think I have it at 14.9, yeah, 14.9 points per game, which is a lot more than what Sam Laporta averaged last year. Sam Laporta averaged 13.8 points per game, and that was with, let's see, with 10 touchdowns in 17 games. McBride was on pace for only five touchdowns. So you do have that going in your favor, Heath. Obviously, there was no Harrison,

but at the same time, it wasn't exactly vintage Kyler Murray. Kyler Murray was averaging about 220 passing yards per game, which is pretty low for him. So, you know, there's, I know like Dave and Jamie are focusing on the touchdowns. We probably need to also focus on the catches.

I'm assuming it's like big gap between, I don't know. Is it a big gap in your projections between him and Laporta? How many catches, as I see you looking that up, it's hard to put you on the spot. How many? No, that's fine.

I've got it. I've got it right here. I've got, um, 99 catches for McBride. I think he was on pace for 113 playing with Kyler Murray last year. And I have 85 for Laporta. So it's 14 catch difference.

That's made up almost exactly by the touchdowns because I have Laporta with seven and McBride with five. I think Laporta with seven is probably what really jumps out there. You have McBride at 5.8 catches per game.

Okay. This is over the course of the whole season. I don't know exactly what it was. At the end of the year, he was at 4 the course of the whole season i don't know exactly what it was at the end there he was at 4.8 for the whole for the whole season yeah then now listen it's not fair to like say that and say that that's a strike against mcbride because i don't know what he averaged with kyler oh yeah he averaged he was well he didn't play the four he was a backup tight in the first seven weeks of the season to full season with him it's what do you have for targets per game for McBride?

I've got him at 132, so about like seven and a half. Yeah. I feel like that's a little too high. 119 would be seven per game. So, I get somewhere in there.

I mean, look, again, I think all these guys have the chance to be special. You know, and there's pros and cons that can knock them down a peg or two depending on how you feel about it. But it's very, it would be very surprising to see

somebody else get drafted ahead of these guys. Now, again, if somebody is really in love with Kincaid, they can make that case kiddo based on how he finished last year can, can leapfrog one of these guys potentially, but these should be the top four tight ends. Just a matter of a, how strongly you feel about one of them. And I think for Heath's benefit, if this is his number one guy, he doesn't have to draft him first because one of the other two, most likely Laporta and Kelsey, will go ahead of him. Okay. All right.

We'll get back to some more ranking disputes in a little bit. We have some news and notes to get to. You've got to be watching CBS Sports HQ, especially this time of year. There is so much going on in the world of sports. So, CBS Sports HQ has everything that you want. I mean, golf, obviously hockey, basketball, football, you name it. CBS Sports HQ is covering it all. So make sure you're watching that. News and notes. When we come back, we'll take a quick break to talk about Trevor Lawrence,

T. Higgins, Gus Edward's injury or something like that, quarterback competitions, and more after this. I am so dreading groceries this week. Why? You can skip it. Oh, what, just like that? Just like that. How about dinner with my third cousin? Skip it.

Prince Fluffy's favorite treats? Skippable. Midnight snacks? Skip. My neighbor's nightly saxophone practices uh nope you're on your own there could have skipped it should have skipped it skip to the good part and get groceries meals and more delivered right to your door on skip miller light the light beer brewed for people who love the taste of beer

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Does anybody have anything to say about this? Go ahead, Heath. No, I've got all my snarky tweets out. I don't have anything to say about it on the official podcast. No, I think if you look at the contract, actually, the way they structured it, it's not near as big or bad as it sounds. That's often the case. You know, it's pretty guaranteed money is still a lot. $200 million in five years.

Well, it's the $200 million, but some of that becomes guaranteed in 2026 and some of that becomes guaranteed in 2027. There's some outs along the way if nothing changes. All right. T. Higgins signed his franchise tender, so that's pretty big news. Are we ready to just rank T. Higgins

without any concerns about contracts or mood or anything like that. Are we, are we finally there with T Higgins now? He can still be moody. He can be moody, but he's still going to play. I was never worried about a holdout here.

Okay. Gus Edwards is dealing with an injury, but he's on a really good track to be ready for training camp. According to Jim Harbaugh. Okay. Washington head coach. Dan Quinn is not named a starting quarterback yet. They have Jaden Daniels and Marcus Mariota. I can name it.

I can name it for him if he'd like. I'd be happy to do it. Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski said Deshaun Watson has looked normal to him. That's cool. Seattle head coach Mike McDonald says he wants to move DK Metcalf around and get him the ball a lot. And Metcalf last year had a very low slot rate. Out of 80 wide receivers with 50 or more targets,

Metcalf was 75th in slot rate. That was 12.6% of his snaps he lined up out of the slot. And it was typically a little bit, he's never going to play a lot in the slot, but he was between 16% and 19% each of the previous three seasons. So you obviously like to hear that Mike McDonald wants to get him the ball a lot. McDonald also talked about how Jackson Smith and the Jigba, it was going to be a, quote, massive piece of the Seattle offense. And it just goes back to what my research told me about what Ryan Grubb likes to do.

I even talked about it with Odunze when I was in Chicago. Definite emphasis on utilizing the wide receivers. Definite emphasis on the slot. Just because DK hasn't lined up in the slot very much doesn't mean that he won't line up maybe a little bit more. But I think Smith and Jigba is going to be the one who lines up in the slot the most. It's hard for me to keep moving him up and up my rankings,

but he's somebody that I'm excited to look for once I get to round seven, eight. We're going to do bold predictions, and I don't really think it's so bold to make a prediction about someone's ADP. But if I one of my bold predictions, I guess, would be that Jackson Smith and Jigba rises 35 spots because he's been about a hundredth. And I don't think it's going to take much to get him in the sixth round, let's say. Like, maybe a little after the 60th pick. 35 is a lot. I don't think he'll get in the fifth round. But I could see JSN being one of the bigger risers in ADP.

What do you guys think the highest you could possibly see him going? No injury to Lockett or Metcalf or anything. I'm way behind on where he seems to go anyway. We're going to talk DK later, I think in the rankings disputes, but I, I think trying to figure out this Seattle offense is pretty fascinating

because generally speaking, you tell me they're hiring a defensive head coach and a first-time NFL offensive coordinator, and I wouldn't expect a lot of pass volume. Defensive head coaches, I looked at this. If you look at the top 10 teams in pass rate last year, I think five of them, maybe six of them, were defensive head coaches, including Washington, which was number one by far. I haven't really seen a major quarter. I haven't really studied it. I just looked at last year, but it was a big mix of at the top offensive head coaches and defensive head coaches.

And actually, like, you know, they haven't been a run heavy team either of the last two years with Pete Carroll. That's another thing. They've actually been pretty pass-heavy. They might be more run-heavy. Like Everton-Wilson, they were happy. They might be more run-heavy because they actually were kind of a pass-first team

the last couple years, as I recall. Let's see. I'm just looking at NFC. JSN's ADP is 105th, 104th, 105th. Think he can get to 70? I don't know if I'd want him if he gets to 70. Why? Why wouldn't I want him?

No, why would he get to 70? I think, you know, what was the one ADP we looked at that was fantasy pros that was so wide receiver heavy? Yeah, but I'm not looking at that anymore. Although fantasy pros... No, I mean, it could be a situation like that where it's just, you know, there's so much of a trend toward wide receivers that players like him get

pushed up. And it pushes other guys down. It makes me want to chase those other guys. Yeah. But I mean, if we're talking about a receiver getting drafted one Oh fifth, jumping 30 spots, there's not many people that are going to be that good being pushed down to

that position. It's going to be pushing down running backs, quarterbacks from time. I'm trying to think of some of the guys who were like those big, big risers where it almost got too expensive. Oh, oh, Jahan Dotson. It could be something like that. I feel like Jahan Dotson had a pretty big rise during the preseason.

It was one of the worst. I just think it takes the locket injury or something for that. Yeah, 30 spots is a big jump without an injury. Right. Well, I mean, I preface that by saying that we all kind of felt like he was really good value at 105th, right? I think we all spotlighted him as a really good late round pick. We thought he was going too low anyway.

So people catch up to that. Maybe it pushes him into the 90s. Then he has a big preseason. All right, we'll see. We'll see. It's a big. It's a very exciting bowl prediction, though. Check out the ADP. I won't make it

one of mine, but it's like an extra. Mark Kabaly of The Athletic thinks that Calvin Austin is the one Steelers wide receiver other than George Pickens that has a chance to have a big role. By George Pickens. Yes. By George Pickens.

Sean McVay said Blake Corum has really stood out. That's cool. Every time Sean McVay opens his mouth, I hear Blake Corum's name come out. Starting running back misses time with injury. Rookie they just drafted does well. Never heard that before.

I think we talked about with blake coram before he was ever drafted that he was going to be the type of running back that a coach was going to love yes um so that doesn't like it doesn't really surprise me and the dolphin signed his adp may jump significantly oh sure yeah but that's 30 spots that 30 spots. I don't know what it is right now, but I think 30 spots would be too big, too much, too soon. OK, let's go to our ranking disputes, although you really got me curious. Now I want to look up Blake Corum's ADP, which is 118th on NFC since June 1st, which is 60. Yeah, if Kyron was still coming into camp with an injury, that might have jumped 20 spots.

Yeah. Back to the rankings disputes. Here we go. And you know what? People seem to really like Trey Benson, his ADP, 111th overall, 112th overall. So let's talk about James Conner. Dave is the high guy on James Conner.

He has him 20th in his PPR rankings. Jamie has Conner 25th. Heath has Conner 26th. A couple of guys that Dave has Connor ahead of that Jamie and Heath do not be Jonathan Brooks and Najee Harris. Dave, you are on the clock with James Connor. I just like that he's averaged at least 15 PPR points each of the last three seasons. Still is going to be the main back in Arizona. Yeah, Benson's going to take some work away.

And again, reading over those Cardinals reports, it sounds like Michael Carter could even have a little bit of a role, but I think Connor's going to have all the high value touches. I think this offense will be a lot better than it was last year. And Connor, when he was healthy was, was good last year. I don't mind taking him as my 20th running back off the board. He is an RB two and then going and getting Benson later on, or is he like round 10 you said for benson yeah that works for me if i really want to combo that backfield i know he's 29 it doesn't really bug me that much i expect him to miss some time that's why he's not higher

there aren't a lot of running backs that can average 15 ppr points that you're going to find as a low-end rb2 so I'll deal with the downfalls, the games that he misses, the downside to his game to have him in my lineup for when he does play well and does get three-plus catches a game, does find the end zone, somebody who does get a lot of the work

that we want our running backs to get. Okay, Heath, why don't you... You are slightly lower than Jamie, basically tied 26th. I thought this would be like the one player that we'd talk about today where why don't you... You are slightly lower than Jamie, basically tied. 26 for Heath. I thought this would be the one player that we'd talk about today where I didn't have... It's not Heath against the world.

It's Dave against the world. I thought I'd just sit this one out. But no, I mean, it's easy. He's a 29-year-old running back who's played more than 13 games, I think twice in his entire career. Target volume to running backs really kind of disappeared last year because of what we just talked about with Trey McBride. They throw a lot of their dump-off passes to tight ends.

So I think Connor was below three targets per game, which probably means two catches per game. And Trey Benson, I expect to make an impact and a bigger impact as the season goes on. I actually dropped him last night when I updated my rankings. He was like 23. I dropped him a couple spots for exactly what he'd said. There's going to be pockets of the season where he's fantastic.

There's going to be pockets of the season where you don't have him at all. There's going to be some times where we may see, and this is my biggest fear, is that does he miss time and Trey Benson takes off? And then it's a shared role for these two guys because Benson's that good so it it feels like they've been trying to add somebody to supplement James Connor not that they wanted to replace him but to supplement and now they finally got somebody and so we'll see if they take him off the field for more stretches but

uh I think Dave's right you know there's going to be some some points in the season where he's amazing and you know the beginning part of the year hopefully is the case when he's healthy and ready to go. Offensive line got better. Quarterback, we know, is healthy. Year two coming off the ACL. And the receiving core definitely got better. So there's a lot to like about this offense.

But I do think the role in the passing game is not going to be the same that we saw in the beginning part of his Cardinals tenure by comparison to what we saw last year. What's his ADP? Did you mention that and I missed it? I did not. James Connor is going 76th overall awesome value tell you where he is among running backs yep i and for now i would

take him ahead of brooks who isn't practicing naji because i i mean we'll talk about the backfield but i'm very schemish about that um Taking him ahead of Tony Pollard, who's going to be splitting in Tennessee. Schemish? Schemish or schemish? Schemish. What did you think I said? You said schemish.

He said schemish. Schemish. I said schemish. No doubt about it. He said schemish. I said schemish. Okay, well, schemish feels like a fantasy football term. If we look at them Steelers backfield, schemishly, you wonder,

will Jalen Warren have a bigger role? Let's talk about Jalen Warren, and Heath is back on the spot here. Heath has Jalen Warren 20th, Jamie 29th, Dave 35th, but seeing Warren 20th is really interesting. Last year, I know we barely got to touch on the touchdown regression for him. He was part of the regression show. He was 29th per game in full PPR, 35th and non, 31st per game in half PPR. And that was with zero receiving touchdowns on 61 catches.

But all right, Jalen Warren, 20th, very high ETH. Yeah, I have him and Najee basically back-to-back like they finished last year. I think per game he was 28th, and for the full season Warren did finish 20th last year. I think that the Steelers' running backs are probably both a little bit better than they were last year. One thing we've seen from Arthur Smith pretty much his entire time in the NFL is that that guy can design. He is very schemish when it comes to the run game. He can design good run lanes and great rush efficiency for 31-year-old kick returners and 21-year-old first-round picks. He was slightly better than Najee last year

with only four touchdowns on 210 touches. I have more rush volume and a more efficient rush offense for the Steelers and a little bit of positive touchdown regression for Warren as well. But wait, did you give him more yards per carry? Because he already averaged 5.3 yards per carry last year. I meant a more efficient rush offense. Yeah, but what about for Warren? 5.1. Okay, still pretty damn good. Might lead the league close to it anyway. All right, Dave, you're the low guy on Warren. Still pretty damn good. Might lead the league, but close to it anyway. All right, Dave, you're the low guy on Warren.

I think 35th? Wow. Something like that? Yep. Okay. I don't know exactly what Arthur Smith wants to do other than be unpredictable. I know.

I agree with Heath that when it comes to the run game, he's awesome at it. He always has been. But I don't think it's going to be. I don't think J's going to be, I don't think Jalen's going to get the chance to be the lead running back for more than like a game here or there when the game script suggests as much. I still think it's going to be a lot of nausea. I'm still taking nausea ahead of Warren, even in full PPR. And I think this coaching staff, even if you remove Arthur Smith from it, just watching them last year, there were so many opportunities for them to give Jalen Warren more work than Najee because Najee was so ineffective and they never did it.

And I don't know if it's ever going to happen. I don't know if Jalen Warren will ever overtake Najee Harris as the main running back there. And so I know that he's good for 10, 11. I think that's where he finished up was like 11 and a half PPR points per game. If you draft them with that expectation, you're going to be fine taking them as a, as a top 24 type of running back. I don't think he can return that value as long as Najee stays in the good graces of the coaching staff. And even when he was bad last year, he stayed in the good graces of that coaching staff and he stays healthy. If those two things happen, I would be nervous for Jalen Warren to be a bigger factor in fantasy. Jamie Najee Harris has never missed a game. I don't know.

Sometimes it seems like he's missed games. No, I do think there might've been a little bit of a change last year. Jalen Warren did not have a game where he played more than half of the offensive snaps in the first half of the season and he had five of those games in the second half of the season including one where he played over 60 of the snaps so i the unpredictable part from dave is right but i'm pretty sure both these backs are going to be involved like we we're talking about the unpredictable thing is, is one of them 55% or 65%. But I don't think there's any chance that Najee is just going to make Jalen Warren irrelevant. I'm pretty sure Warren's going to have the passing role, which has been pretty prevalent in the Arthur Smith offense, throwing to running backs. Well, and, and, and that point I think is extremely relevant with something Adam

said earlier with Calvin Austin being a big part of the passing game. I mean, this receiving court is bad. You know, so George Pickens, we have a lot of expectations for year three. He looks like a breakout candidate. There's some hope for Roman Wilson. I mean, obviously you have some guys that they've, you know, trying to get some production out of a lot of guys that have played with Arthur Smith before, for better or worse. But, you know, Van Jefferson right now being most likely the starting second outside receiver. I think Pat Frymouth is going to have a big role.

But Jalen Warren is going to be probably the third guy in terms of targets, if not competing to be the second guy in terms of targets. And that's huge. And so I think in terms of where you're getting Warren, again, Adam, not to keep pestering you about ADP for these guys, but it's got to be at such an incredible value if, in fact, you're keep pestering you about ADP for these guys, but it's got to be at such a, uh, an incredible value. In fact, if, if in fact you're like Heath, who you like Warren better and in PPR, it should be probably pretty close. The thing I like about Najee, which is why I have him ranked slightly higher is I like the fact that he's lost weight and should be coming in better shape. I like the fact that he's motivated now for a new deal that they've, you know, decided not to give him the fifth year option. So, uh, that works twofold for me. One, hopefully

he's trying to go out and prove he's still one of the better running backs in the league if, in fact, people value him that way. And two, they can run him into the ground from a carry perspective and then kick him out the door and say maybe Jalen Warren is our guy of the future. So from a carry perspective, he's still going to lead the team in carries. From a yardage and touchdown perspective, I still think he leads them that way from a rushing yard perspective jaylen warren's going to have more sections there's no question about that and so if he scores you know five total touchdowns then the the production might be better for warren but i still think nausea is going to have a slightly

better season which is why i would take him first before taking warren but i i tend to just let other people take nausea and then try and target jaylen warren because i know he'll go later all right next i also think the offensive line, they addressed the offensive line in the draft. They addressed it in free agency the last couple of years. Draft last year, too. Should be a better front five. And I want to be clear. I'm not necessarily anti-Naji.

I've got both of them higher than where they finished last year. I've got Warren slightly better like last year. Are you reaching for Warren then? Because where you haven't ranked would suggest that he's going to go ahead of his ADP. I don't find myself reaching for running backs in that stretch, but if he's there in round six or round seven, if that's a reach,

yeah, I'm fine with it. Ready for Mike Evans? Yeah. Yay! Why don't I let Dave start? Because Dave, I'll just call you the low guy instead of calling Heath the high guy. Or Jamie. No, Jamie can't start as the middle guy. He has to come in after.

So Dave has him 19th and Heath has him 10th. Jamie has Mike Evans 15th. Heath has him ahead of guys like Drake London, Michael Pittman, and Devante Adams. Not the case for Jamie and Dave. But Dave, you are the low guy on old man Evans. I just don't want to draft him based solely on last year. Um, when in the years prior, he was still getting 15 and change in PPR. And that's really where I want to get him. It was 15.9 in 2021, 15 on the nose in 2022, 2023, 17.3. We know Godwin wasn't healthy for a big part of the year. I think Godwin's going to enter training camp healthy now.

They've got a couple of other peripheral receivers that might take away fractions of targets from Mike Evans. But I just wonder if they're going to try and not be as reliant on big Mike as they were last year. And I don't want to bank on him having to come through with a bunch of touchdowns again. To me, it's a case of not drafting him too close to a ceiling. I'd rather miss out on Evans than take him as the 10th wide receiver off the board.

I still think he's absolutely worth drafting as a number two type of fantasy receiver, but not as a number one, not as a top 15 guy. Jamie, why don't you get in there? Sorry. You're, you're in the middle here and then we'll let Heath make the positive case for Mike Evans is wide receiver 10. He's old.

Yeah. I mean, look at, at some point there's going to be some significant regression for him and he's not going to get a thousand yards and he's not going to get 10 touchdowns. He's still going to, you know, know hopefully be a good player if not a great player um but we've seen some down years for him where he hasn't been you know top 10 you know i know i mean you referenced this a few at some point in the last couple weeks about you know he's never finished lower than than 24th um in ppr and hopefully that's still the case but i'm expecting godwin

to do to perform at a little higher level now Now that he's back in the slot, you know, the, the reports on McMillan are very positive. You know, our own Pete Prisco was at mini camp and just raving about this kid. And so hopefully that's, you know, something that matters for the offense and takes away a little bit of Mike Evans, but you know, from a floor standpoint, you can't find somebody that's been more consistent than him. And that's hard to overlook. You just got to hope that the, the, the start of the decline has uh we haven't seen it yet and at some point that's going to happen and you don't want to you know be a part of that when it when it hits first off i don't think that he's old argument works if we have davante adams ahead

of him because davante adams is older that's the range i'm in. Right. Um, I don't, there was no sign at all of him getting worse last year. Led the NFL and receiving touchdowns is yards per catch and yards per target were better than his career averages. His yards per game was like two yards off of his career averages. I, I, he was,

yeah, he was not top 10 the two years before last year but he was 12th and 14th that was great though it's hard to compare do you the fact that he actually had a better year last year in terms of rate stats

do you think he's going to fall back from that he might fall back from that? He might fall back. Yeah, sure. A couple of spots. Yeah. And he had such a hard target. 13 touchdowns is a lot to ask for. Well, he's done it like four times in his career.

He's one of the highest touchdown rate guys in the NFL history. What do you make of this? The thing that concerns me, you know, Dave Canal is leaving. Why does that worry you so much? Why does that worry you so much, Jamie? Well, I mean, look, he left Seattle. They took a step back. I mean, he's obviously a pretty good play caller and a good, you know,

he's good at making things schemish. But I hope that, you know, this offense continues to perform at a high level, that Baker doesn't take a step backwards. But, again, I just go back to at some point these guys start to tail off in their careers. And, you know, I just don't think – and clearly it's, you know, probably by a matter of a few spots in our overall rankings because I'm going to guess Heath having intent is a round two pick. For me, it's a round three pick.

So it's not like I'm that far away from him. But I just don't like buying in on players like Devontae Adams, like Mike Evans at this point in their career, and expecting them to continue to produce at this level or get better. I think the only likely scenario is his father time has shown us that they start to get worse. And to the point about touchdowns, Evans does have at least 13 touchdowns, three of his last four seasons, but two of those seasons, he barely had over a thousand yards.

Two of those seasons, he was under 120 targets for the year. Those were two 16 game seasons, not 17 game seasons. I think that he's good for like 1,011. And if you draft him that way, then I don't think he'll be terribly disappointed. I think he'd sell healthy. I think he can be effective at 31 years of age. I'm not worried about the offensive change because I think it's kind of similar. I think Liam Cohen's a smart guy.

That's the new offensive coordinator in Tampa. I'm worried about other parts of that offense taking some of the stress off of Evan's shoulders this year. Godwin? I don't know what other parts of the offense there are. I think he's going to have a bit of a bounce back season. I don't think he'll ever be back to where he was once upon a time, but I think he'll be better than he was last year. I think he played hurt through two thirds of the year. So what do you make of this?

I just want to bring this up, right? The guy had 1,255 yards, which is a lot for him lately, and 13 touchdowns, which obviously he can do. And let's just look at where he finished per game in all three formats. 13 touchdowns, seventh in non-PPR, eighth in half PPR, and 11th per game in full PPR. So I'm looking at a guy who had 13 touchdowns, lead the league, and higher yardage total than usual. I think probably a lower catch total than usual, only 79 in 17 games. But he only finished, only, made a great year, finished 11th per game and in full

PPR in that format. It doesn't really make me want to take them, you know, higher than maybe 15th or so. I will say his yards per game were worse last year than the year before the average. It was, you just played 15 games. So the yards per game were almost identical the last two years. I don't think the yardage was outlandish last year. No, not outlandish. He was on pace for slightly more yards. He was on pace for 1,274 yards in 2022

and 19 fewer in 2023. He averaged a yard more per game in 2022. He got more targets. He dominated targets last year in a way that I didn't really expect. He also averaged more targets per game in 2022 than he did in 2023.

Well, they probably threw a lot more, his target share and his target per route share was higher. Yes. Yeah. The eight from 2022 versus 2023. Yeah. I've got it right here.

It was 12.6 in 2022, 14 last year. Okay. And he's been, for the last six years, anywhere between 12.1 and 15.6. Okay, that's Mike Evans. And we got DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, and two quarterbacks to talk about

when we come back from this break on Fantasy Football today. Bumble knows it's hard to start conversations. Hey. No, too basic. Hi there. about when we come back from this break on Fantasy Football today. You can now make the first move or not. With opening moves, you simply choose a question to be automatically sent to your matches. Then sit back and let your matches start the chat. Download Bumble and try it for yourself. With Smartwater's pure, crisp taste, there's nothing to overthink. So while you may be spiraling over double texting your crush, whether your skincare routine is working because you look the same or is doing nothing because you look the same and whatever the heck red light therapy is.

It's definitely not that. Don't overthink how you hydrate. Life's full of choices. Smart water is a simple one. Welcome back. We just had a Mayor of Kingstown promo. I am now two behind. That's not good. I also did not watch House of the Dragon. So I've got a lot of TV. Was it good?

Yes, but I had to go back after watching it because I forgot how much I forgot. So I had to go catch up a little bit. So I watched the second half of season one when they were adults. Okay. You watched that whole – God, you watched all that last night? Why do you think I was up until 4 o'clock?

There was – yeah, it took a lot of catching up. Yeah. I mean, those shows are crazy. The previously on, you need at least 10 minutes of that to catch up on a whole season. Okay, let's go to DK Metcalf. Okay, Heath. I'm going to let Jamie start.

Jamie's slightly higher than Dave. Jamie has Metcalf 20th. Dave has him 21st. And Heath has DK Metcalf 30th behind guys like George Pickens, Christian Kirk, and Stefan Diggs. Whereas Pickens, Kirk, and Diggs are behind Metcalf for Jamie and Dave. They are ahead of Metcalf for Heath. So again, it's Jamie 20th, Dave 21st, Heath 30th for DK Metcalf.

Jamie, I'll let you start. So I actually go back and forth with Metcalf and Pickens, and that's going to be a fun one before our rankings lock for our magazine, and then certainly as the rest of the offseason unfolds because I think both could be pretty special um you know like David said you know in researching Ryan Grubb's offense this coming into the NFL there's an opportunity here for Metcalf to hopefully you know start to look like the guy that he was before the last couple of seasons when he's kind of struggled with Geno Smith a little bit but I do think that they're going to put him in some situations to be successful you mentioned

this before Adam they were so slow in terms of pace of play that I think that's going to change dramatically. They're going to see more offensive opportunities for these guys, which is why JSN is an opportunity to be a much better player. Why Metcalf has a chance to hopefully play like the guy that we were talking about is maybe one of the best dynasty options for a few years before these last couple of years. He's just such a physical presence that has an opportunity to still be one of the best dynasty options for a few years before these last couple of years. He's just such a physical presence and has an opportunity to still be one of the best alpha receivers in the league. The question is, can Geno Smith give him the opportunities to do that?

That's really what I keep coming back to, which is why he's not higher for me. But I do think that there's a chance in this offense, with this system, how schemish they'll be, that Metcalf will be closer to a top 15 caliber wide receiver and the chance to be a solid number two receiver. Because when, when, when our, our draft, our rankings process started, he was closer to where Heath hasn't ranked for me.

It was like 26, 27. But I do like him better than digs. I like the situation right now, slightly better than guys like Christian Kirk, who I do like a lot better than Amari Cooper, better than some of these guys. I think that if DK does hit in this offense, he could be in the top 10. Yeah.

Can I just clarify one thing? I'll let Heath get in there. I don't know for a fact that they had a slow pace of play Seattle, but you're right. Yeah. They just didn't run a lot of plays. Excuse me for not saying three years in a row, I think. And two of the last three years, they've been like dead last or something like that in just plays run and time of possession.

Absolutely terrible, this team. Okay, Heath, you have Metcalf 10 spots lower than Jamie, 30th. I wish that I could make this an impassioned argument, but I went and looked. In my projections, there is a difference of 10 total fantasy points between wide receiver 17 and wide receiver 30 for me. I think I've heard that Scott White and Chris Towers have liked to talk about the blob or glob of starting pitchers. And this is where the glob of wide receivers is for me. I'm a little bit less, maybe more uncertain about the new

offense and new coaching staff. There seems to be more excitement being expressed while I've got a little bit more uncertainty. If JSN is going to make a leap, I don't think that's going to be a good thing for DK Metcalf. I don't think Tyler Lockett's just going to go away. He's going to pester Metcalf. I don't think Tyler Lockett's just going to go away. He's going to pester Metcalf as he has for most of Metcalf's career. But it's not too big of a thing. I could make one or two small ranking projections adjustments as I do throughout the offseason, and DK could jump to that wide receiver 20 to 24 range. I think the thing that worries me the most when you look at that 2023 season,

4.1 receptions per game. Yeah. I guess that's not a number two wide receiver. Yeah. Different offense, though. Yeah, it is. Right. The worst part about it is that he averaged 7.4 targets per game.

So he was getting those opportunities to get numbers, and he still couldn't have a lot of catches to go along with it. I wonder if that goes part and parcel with the downfield shots that he couldn't quite bring in. He does seem to be a little touchdown dependent, but the thing that might separate is his end zone targets and his red zone targets and adams talked about this a lot i think he's had he's top four and end zone targets every year of his career he was fifth last year uh he's been 10th or higher for the last four years so So they're going to use him in that role.

If they move him around a lot more, that means that they might be able to create some matchups for him. And if the ADOT comes down, that'll help his reception. It's hard to say that they're going to throw more, though, because they already were one

of the highest-balling passing teams last year. I could see him continuing to lead the Seahawks in targets and certainly end zone targets and be at the top of that blob of wide receiver twos. Yeah, they were pass heavy, but remember, they didn't run a lot of plays,

so they were 17th in pass attempts. They were, let's see, they were 31st in rush attempts. And I think they were fifth in pass rate overall. Right, but it doesn't really matter if you're running the fewest plays in the NFL. Right, if you're slow-paced. So let me just say, this might be everything we need to know about DK Metcalf.

I don't really think it is. I think he's a fascinating player. But three seasons in a row, in full PPR, he has been 22nd or 23rd per game. It could be just that simple. I don't know that you're going to find a wide receiver who's been that consistent in where he's finished. There's so much Acer statting that you can do and things like that.

But three years in a row, he's been a low-end number two wide receiver per game. Could just be that. All right, let's go to DJ Moore. He has not been a low-end number two wide receiver three years in a row. He's been a little bit more volatile than that in his career. Right? I mean, you talk about a guy that's tough to figure out.

Heath has him 27th, Jamie 21st, and Dave 18th. All right, Mr. Bears man. Bear down. Bear down, Dave Richard. DJ Moore. You're the eye. I think that DJ Moore is going to continue to be the number one receiver in Chicago. We're all very aware of what he did last year when Justin Fields was throwing to him. He got an upgrade at quarterback with Caleb Williams. I saw firsthand that they were on the same page. That made me feel better about ranking DJ Moore as a top 20 wide receiver. And yeah, Keenan Allen's there.

Roma Dunzey's there. I don't think they're going to impact the targets for DJ Moore that much. I still think he's going to be not far and away the top target getter, but I think he could still be seven and a half to eight targets per game, and I think he can catch a lot of them. I still think he can make a lot of big plays. The offense that he's running, it's a West Coast offense. It's based on McVay.

It's Shane Waldron calling the plays. Shane Waldron was the guy in Seattle. They did use slow pace last year. Maybe they go a little slow this year for Chicago, but they'll throw more. It could be just like what Seattle did overall, where they're throwing a lot, just not necessarily as many plays.

I'll still take DJ Moore and his game-breaking ability in a system where he's not going to get double-teamed that much and should still continue to play at a high level as the number one guy in Chicago. And I'll take him ahead of Mike Evans. Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool,

Tyler Scott, Valus Jones, Equinemius St. Brown, Trent Taylor, and Colin Johnson were the other wide receivers who got passes for the Bears last year. Keenan Allen has always, everywhere he's played, he demands 10 plus, or everybody quarterback he plays with, he demands 10 plus targets per game. And he was awesome last year in terms of efficiency, so it showed no signs of age.

All true. And he didn't show any signs of age at minicamp either. And they go draft Roma Tun the as a top 10 pick I don't know how we can say that these guys aren't going to impact DJ Moore's Target share he had like I've obviously been wrong about DJ Moore plenty and maybe he'll be the clear number one but I just think this is a mess in terms of projected Target share and the one Elite season we got for DJ Moore, he immediately loses the offensive coordinator and quarterback responsible. Jamie?

Yeah, I don't think those are bad things. I tend to lean toward Heath here with this, even though I don't have a rank that way. But I'm hoping that DJ Moore's talent lends itself to him still continuing to dominate targets it's it's hard to well i don't think keenan allen's getting 10 targets per game i think that's you know crazy to expect that again and i don't think heath is projecting that that way no um but the fact that they wanted to trade up for romo dunze uh that they drafted him as high as they did adding another piece to this offense after they already brought in keenan allen like

they want to have a very explosive receiving core, and that's going to hurt DJ Moore with the rookie quarterback. I mean, look, he's going to have an opportunity for some better passes from Caleb Williams because he should be a better passer than Justin Fields, and that's not to knock Justin Fields. Caleb Williams is just an elite talent coming to the league. But it's just hard to expect him to dominate targets like he did. I just can't fathom that if Odun, Zane, Keenan Allen are going to have any semblance of the role that I think the Bears are expecting him to dominate targets like he did i just can't fathom that if odun zankin and alan are going to have any semblance of the role that i think the bears are expecting them to have

so uh more is adp adam you know just looking at like that's crazy where he's going like i can't take him in the first three rounds at all yeah why why does number 17 30th overall yeah no way i think that the thing that i don't like where i could be off if I am is if the Bears are extremely like have a high, high number of pass attempts with a rookie quarterback who held on to the ball for a long time and ran plenty in college. I don't really project that. I've got them projected for 558, which is 45 more passes than what they threw last year. And let's see, that's 19 fewer than league average. How many is that per game? 558 divided by 17.

It's going to be about 32. 32.8. I don't think that that's too far off. Well, I think Heath was too far off being 0.8 away from the answer. I was expecting that. But like 32, like no, Keenan Allen's not going to have 10 targets per game. Eight? Nope.

Oh, well, then why did they trade for him? I think they traded for him because he has a friendly contract for this year, and he's still a really good player. And they want to surround their quarterback who holds the ball a little too long and moves out of the pocket with guys who can get open short, intermediate, and long. And the guy who's going to get open short is Keenan Allen. He's going to be their slot guy. You're going to see him in the slot huge majority of the time.

He said as much. So he could get seven targets a game. That wouldn't surprise me. Okay, well, listen. Seven targets a game could lead the team. We have done a lot of mock drafts. I have not drafted a Bears receiver once, I don't think. It's probably not true, but I have not set out to do it.

The only one that I would target right now for me is Odunze. I feel like Keenan Allen is dropping so much that... Let me see where he's going. Odunze's going 96th. Keenan Allen is going 60th. The other thing that kills me about this is like... Yeah, no, that's a little

high, right? The two of them, Moore and Allen, are cringy to me. But Allen at 60 is way more cringy than DJ Moore at 30. What gets me here is I kind of look at it a little bit like the 49ers and Keenan Allen keeps missing

time and he's old. So if we took Keenan Allen out of the equation, then we'd probably be fine with DJ Moore in the third round. And I just don't want to bank on Keenan Allen out of the equation, then we'd probably be fine with DJ Moore in the third round. And I just, I don't want to, like, you know, I don't want to bank on Keenan Allen getting hurt. But if he does, then we might really regret, if you are someone who's skipping DJ Moore, you might regret that. Maybe you just take Odunze late and make up for it that way.

Well, I don't think DJ Moore will be nearly as good as he was last year on a per-game basis, but I still think he'll finish as a top-20 receiver. He also had just two massively unbelievable games. Yeah, I bet that evens out this year. Yeah, but he also had the Bajent era. Without Tyson Bajent... Yeah, no, I'm just saying, he had two monstrous games. And they were against, what, Denver,

when Denver was the worst defense ever, and Washington. Yeah. He averaged 19 points per game with Justin Fields last year in PPR. That's incredible. Yeah, that's not happening. He was at 16.9. He'll be a little lower than that. How about Jared Goff? I know. Why did I put Jared Goff in here? It's like he's not even that different. Just I barely ever talk about Jared Goff. I've got something to say about Jared Goff in here? It's not even that different. I barely ever talk about Jared Goff. I've got something to say about Jared Goff.

Yeah, let's do it. You're the high guy. You have him 14th. Jamie has Goff 18th. Dave has him 19th. So that's significant because you have him ahead of Jaden Daniels and Justin Herbert, for example. He's, the last two years, and we've talked about this plenty on this show, when he's indoors, he's a set it and forget it, no doubt about it, starting quarterback.

23.7 fantasy points a game last year, 24.7 fantasy points per game the year before. This was one of the guys, and this is the last piece of magazine content, I promise, but this is one of the guys that when I was doing my research for guys, like if you wait forever at a position and you're just drafting to stream to start the season, Jared Goff's that guy.

Home, home, Dallasallas minnesota home like he's going to be in my opinion a must start quarterback for the first third of the season at least okay i'm putting it opens with the rams then the bucks at arizona and then seattle bye. Tons of dome games. I think he only has like two games this year outdoors. Ooh. So just something that I can look and see, but it's not a bad schedule. I think he's starting at Chicago. That's it.

And at San Francisco in week 17. So unfortunately, two of his outdoor games are week 16 and 17. Three outdoor games. He's at San Francisco. Right. That's pretty good. Great guy to pair with Williams or Daniels if you want to see the rookies early on

and just start golf. At Green Bay in week nine. He is at San Francisco in week 17. So let's talk about the rookies then. Let's talk about Caleb Williams specifically. Heath, you have him 20th. Jamie has Caleb Williams 12th. Dave, 14th.

I will just fire a shot. I can't believe you have him 20th. That's way too low. He's the number one overall pick. He's a tremendous prospect. He's going to run for at least 500, at least 400 yards, potentially a lot more than that. We don't even know what he'll run for.

And he is walking into, I don't know if this is true, but I'm going to say it anyway. Arguably, no, I'm not even arguing, the best receiving core that a rookie quarterback who's actually going to start has ever walked into in NFL history. No, I think that last part is probably true. If he's going to run for more than 500 yards, I think that's a really bad thing for all the Bears pass catchers,

and he might. But there's just no way you're going to have a high-volume pass offense with a quarterback who's running for 500 yards. Except for Josh Allen. I don't think he's probably going to be Josh Allen in year one. I've got Daniels ahead of Caleb Williams. I don't know if that's unique or not, but I am pretty skeptical of rookie quarterback passers. And listen, number two was awesome last year and made me regret not drafting any of them.

Number one made me feel pretty good about not drafting any of them. 20th though is so low. I mean, it's like, you know know doesn't it feel like you're putting him behind guys who don't really have big upside does it feel that way to you at all are you counting Jared Goff as not having big upside

you know based on what he's done the last two years yes I think there's more touchdown potential for him but I think 23 or 24 fantasy points per game is more upside than I would feel comfortable saying a rookie quarterback has. Unless it's Richardson or Jaden Daniels who could run for a thousand. Goff has finished only around 20 each of the last two years.

Right. I know you just made the case he's got all those in there again. Yeah, yeah. But I mean, he's, you know, again, just taking his body of work, you know, that's, you know, enough of a sample size that. I don't know how you could rank Russell Wilson ahead of Caleb Williams. He was a top 12 quarterback last year. Was he really per game?

I don't know, but, but that's his upside. I mean, I think Caleb Williams has top five upside, maybe top six, seven, you know? Yeah. And I think for his career, he probably does. I don't see that as a rookie. I'd be shocked if Caleb had 500 yards. If you take away all the sacks that he has, because in college they count sack yards against your rushing stats,

he had 85 carries, 266 yards, 3.1 yards per carry. I would be shocked if he was a big yardage guy on the ground. It's the touchdowns when they're inside the five that I think he could steal three or four from the running backs on. But if we're talking about being comfortable to begin the season, would you rather start Jared Goff with a good schedule and a track record of playing well indoors with a healthy offensive line and maybe even a better receiving core than he had last year or Caleb Williams, who's never started an NFL game, even though he has an even better receiving core than what Detroit has. I think I'd lean toward golf in that situation.

I kind of get where he's coming from. Yeah. No, Justin Fields though. I just will say that he taught me that not to necessarily look at a guy's rushing stats. He never rushed for more than 484 yards in college in a season. And I didn't have to. Okay. Well, neither, I mean, Caleb Williams, Caleb, stats. He never rushed for more than 484 yards in college in a season.

And I didn't have to. Okay. Well, neither, I mean, Caleb Williams, Caleb needed to look at Caleb Williams and tell me that he doesn't have major rushing upside much more than what he did in college. And the other, that's the thing I like about him is that he has passing to fall back on, right? If he doesn't rush for a lot, he, he can get there by throwing the ball. Jamie, I know you're pretty high on Caleb Williams. Well, it's exactly what you said. It's the upside, you know? So, and Heath, I think made the perfect argument, you know, and sort of Dave laid it out the same way as well. Like you shouldn't be drafting Caleb Williams to be your

week one starter, but you should be drafting him to be the guy that's going to hopefully win you a fantasy championship. And so, you know, you know, Heath mentioned the one guy last year, CJ Straub was a waiver wire pickup, you know, so you don't have to be great early in the season to still be a star fantasy option. You'd like it to be the case because you don't want to be drafting guys to sit on your bench to open the season. But, um, I'm have, I haven't ranked top 12 because that's the expectation of where he'll finish. I don't think the first three or four weeks of the season he's going to necessarily be a consistent top 12 fantasy quarterback.

So if you draft Caleb Williams, and same thing with Jay and Daniels, I have ranked one spot ahead of him at 11. I think you're drafting those guys with a Brock Purdy, with a Tua Tungavailoa, with a Jared Goff, a Matthew Stafford, any of these guys that have a little bit of a safer floor. And if that other quarterback is producing a high level, and as Heath said with Jared Goff, the situation presents itself that it could be but if those other guys play to their

potential then Caleb Williams could be a top 10 quarterback I don't think top five is realistic Adam but top 10 is definitely on the table because of his receiving core and because of I think what he will profile to to run a little bit more than he did in college so I like the upside but again I'm not drafting him to be my week one starter, no. Okay. Do you guys feel, I mean, Heath, you have doubts about rookie quarterbacks. Do you feel like it's getting better, though? First of all, you look at rookie quarterbacks,

I think you really have to have a separate conversation about guys who go in the top five or ten than anyone else. I mean, we can't compare Kenny Pickett to even Bryce Young, the three who went in the top five last year. But it feels like they're getting better, you know? Mayfield had a record-setting rookie season. Herbert had a record-setting. Burrow was solid.

Richardson barely played, but was good. Stroud, obviously. I mean, I don't feel like we saw that so much earlier in our fantasy careers, but I feel like they're getting better. Did you say Mayfield? He did. He set the touchdown record. It was like eight years ago, wasn't it?

Yeah. He's still one of the few rookie quarterbacks that did well right away. Kyler was okay. Lawrence was awful. Bryce Young was awful. I'm not saying they're a definite hit. I feel like they're getting better, though. I feel like it's not as uncommon to see a rookie quarterback come in and do well. Personally.

No one else feels that way? I don't think there's any rhyme or reason to it. I mean, we saw two guys last year. One was completely terrible, and one was amazing. No, I think that the NFL is starting to do— I mean, I've heard this before, they're starting to do things schematic, what did you say?

Schemishly. Schemishly. Schemishly that the colleges are doing. And they're sort of tailoring their offenses a little bit. Well, it goes back to, you know, seven on sevens and how these guys are starting to develop at that age, that they're just understanding NFL concepts better when they get to college it's it's even more expanded but yes the the it's why you're seeing you know some coaches making the jump sooner from from the college

game because nfl staffs want them on their nfl coaches want them on their staff uh i i think that's part of the development of these guys but But again, there's nothing that I think you could say is a definitive situation. Because again, just looking at two of the guys last year, you could say Bryce Young, too small, whatever, okay, but he just didn't play well after having a very solid college career. I think any of the six guys drafted in the first round, there's still five because Penix is going to play, but the five guys drafted in the first round,

it wouldn't be a huge shock if Bo Nix has a better completion percentage than these guys because of the offense that he plays and then the type of quarterback that he is, but there's not as much upside. So, you know, you can sort of dice it up. I think any, any, which way is there an opportunity for Caleb Williams to be special? Sure. But he's got a lot of proof. It's just, again, you know, what do you, what are you banking on for me? I'm banking on the upside because I think it's a pretty good situation that he's walking into. Another rookie, too, Brock Purdy, somebody just mentioned. Oh, true.

Yeah, right. I forgot about that. Well, then we're including all rookie quarterbacks, so we have to count Kenny Pickett and all those guys. If you're just talking about the top five guys, there were three of them last year, and one was awesome. One got hurt, and one was terrible. And none the year before. And then the year before that, there were three, and last year and one was awesome one got hurt and one was terrible and no but none the year before and then the year before that there were three and they were all terrible there's there's been 10 first round lawrence wilson quarterbacks in the last decade that have given

you at least 20 fantasy points per game the year before that i think the year before that you had burrow herbert and tua and two of them were success stories. Tua didn't average 20. No, Tua was the bad one. Herbert was a huge success. He was awesome. Burrow barely made 20. Burrow was good, not great, and Tua was bad.

Yeah, and most of these quarterbacks get under 22 fantasy points per game. So it's not like they've got huge upside. Even Stroud was at, like, points per game. So it's not like they've got huge upside. Even Stroud was at like 21 and change. Herbert was at 26.3 as a rookie. Even with this success, I still wouldn't have high expectations for a rookie quarterback who didn't run the ball a lot

or didn't have big rushing upside. Sure, that's why Daniels is higher for me. Sure, I get it. And a better bowl prediction than your ADP one. I get it. And a, uh, a better bold prediction than your ADP one. I believe Dan has said on the show and I know he's doing it for a magazine that he's going to set the rookie record for touchdown passes. So Dan's a buyer. Caleb Williams is. Yep. Yeah. So as you recall, last week I was thinking about, I'm sure everyone remembers this, probably thinking about it all weekend, right? I was talking about what stat

correlates to receiver touchdowns. Would it a dot would it be explosive play rate so I did a whole bunch of research this morning uh you know what can we like can we predict receiver touchdowns based on either a dot or explosive play rate and I will give you the results tomorrow because we are out of time so uh the little teaser for you there let's see if we have any conclusions that we can draw from the last five years and looking at wide receivers who have scored eight or more touchdowns in that split. It's right here on the notes. Yeah, but don't read it because we're saving it for tomorrow.

Okay. Thank you to Dave, Heath, and Jamie and Thomas Schaefer for producing. And all of you for watching and listening. I'm Adam and we'll talk to you tomorrow on fantasy football.